by Judith Curry
There are a number of explanations (for the hiatus), any one of which might be correct. That is very different from saying: ‘We have no idea what’s going on’. – Myles Allen
Well, at present I can’t go with quote of the week, since provocative statements are flying fast and furiously in anticipation of the IPCC Report.
This particular quote comes from an article in Reuters Global warming ‘hiatus’ unlikely to last – draft U.N. report. Excerpt:
“Barring a major volcanic eruption, most 15-year global mean surface temperature trends in the near-term future will be larger than during 1998-2012,” according to the 127-page Technical Summary dated June 7 and obtained by Reuters.
Temperatures are likely be 0.3 to 0.7 degree Celsius (0.5-1.3 Fahrenheit) higher from 2016-35 than from 1986-2005, it says. The reports by the IPCC, updating an overview of climate change from 2001, are the main guide for government action.
“Fifteen-year-long hiatus periods are common” in both historical records and in computer models, the technical summary says. But scientists were caught out – in one computer model, 111 of 114 estimates over-stated recent temperature rises.
The drafts predict that temperatures could rise by up to 4.8C (8.5F) this century – far above a ceiling set by governments of 2C (3.6F) above pre-industrial times to avoid dangerous changes to nature and society.
With deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the rise could be kept to just 0.3C (0.5F), the draft says.
Well, I am afraid I must conclude that the IPCC “has no idea what’s going on“.