by Judith Curry
Converging evidence from the behavioural and brain sciences suggests that the human moral judgement system is not well equipped to identify climate change — a complex, large-scale and unintentionally caused phenomenon — as an important moral imperative.
A recent issue of Nature Climate Change has the following paper:
Climate change does not tip the human moral balance according to novel research compiled by psychologists at University of Oregon. Evidence from behavioural analysts and those studying the human condition suggest that we as human beings do not feel motivated to engage in urgent action to solve the issue of climate change, although climate scientists have had a long standing consensus for action.
Why is it that only a small population of US citizens support an increased duty on electricity and gas, whilst a majority support limits on greenhouse gas emissions imposed on big business. Is it purely to do with perceived scale of responsibility? The disconnect between the public and the scientific community and ever further, climate change communicators is now impinging on our psychological processing of the climate change issue as a whole.
Psychologists have now suggested that climate change actually challenges our perceptual, cognitive and information processing systems leading to emotionally charged reactions that are either defensive or counterproductive or both. So understanding the challenge in manipulating the moral intuition within individuals is particularly important to communicators and those that wish to initiate change.
Table 1 | Six psychological challenges posed by climate change to the human moral judgement system.
- Abstractness and cognitive complexity: The abstract nature of climate change makes it non-intuitive and cognitively effortful to grasp
- The blamelessness of unintentional action: The human moral judgement system is finely tuned to react to intentional transgressions
- Guilty bias: Anthropogenic climate change provokes self-defensive biases
- Uncertainty breeds wishful thinking: The lack of definitive prognoses results in unreasonable optimism
- Moral tribalism: The politicization of climate change fosters ideological polarization
- Long time horizons and faraway places: Out-group victims fall by the wayside
Table 2 | Six psychological strategies that communicators can use to bolster the recognition of climate change as a moral imperative.
- Use existing moral values: Frame climate change using more broadly held values that appeal to untapped demographics
- Burdens versus benefits: Focus messaging on the costs, not benefits, that we may impose on future generations
- Emotional carrots, not sticks: Motivate action through appeals to hope, pride and gratitude rather than guilt, shame and anxiety
- Be wary of extrinsic motivators: Pushing action on climate change as ‘good business’ may backfire
- Expand group identity: Increase identification with and empathy for future generations and people living in other places
- Highlight positive social norms: Leverage human susceptibility to social influence and approval
Objection, assumes facts not in evidence.
========
It is difficult to motivate action with obviously falsified information.
The majority whose only info comes from the MSM do not know there is any doubt about CAGW. They also don’t know how much the cure will harm them.
Tha responses of leaders of nations, scientific organizations, research journals, the news media – even our most trusted organizations like the US National Academy of Sciences, the UK Royal Society, the UN IPCC, BBC, PBS, NYT and the Nobel Prize Committee – point to one unpalatable but inescapable conclusion:
Society is not controlled by trusted servants of the public nor by lovers of wisdom (knowledge) – as recommended in Plato’s Republic – but by lovers of power.
They were probably driven by instinctive fear of “nuclear fire” into hiding information on the source of energy that controls Earth’s climate, sustains life, powers the Sun and the cosmos – neutron repulsion in the compact cores of
a.) Heavy atoms like uranium
b.) Some planets like Jupiter
c.) Ordinary Sun-like stars
d.) Galaxies like the Milky Way
See: omanuel.wordpress.com/about/#comment-31
redshift.vif.com/JournalFiles/V19N02pdf/V19N2MAN.pdf
There are frightening indications today of seething anger starting to erupt in San Francisco:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/05/01/BAQF1OBH55.DTL
Peaceful resolution may require world leaders to correct the deception that it has promoted since Hiroshima was vaporized on 6 Aug 1945:
http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/#comment-53
There is no doubt, Diag, that
a.) Erroneous predictions of CAGW – Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming – and
b.) Irrational government policies that encouraged manufacturing jobs in the USA to move overseas to generate CO2
Caused great damage to our economy and to the lives of millions of Americans formerly engaged in activities related to the production of steel from iron ore, and the manufacture, repair, sale and rental of automobiles.
Over fifty-one million Americans now live in poverty, according to a report that aired tonight on PBS St Louis: The New Faces of Poverty – Former Middle Class Members.
By coincidence tonight’s PBS program interviewed three adult Americans from an area hard-hit by the loss of automobile related jobs in Pittsburg, PA, Columbus, OH, and Detroit, MI: A black single female with one child, a white married male with two children, and a white engaged female with four children were interviewed about their recent journey
a.) From comfortable middle class
b.) To being unemployed
c.) To being homeless
d.) To living in shelters
The universe that surrounds and sustains us is benevolent. Responses of world leaders and their scientific advisors to Climategate emails and documents since Nov 2009 belie over six decades of misinformation on the source of energy that controls Earth’s climate, sustains our lives and powers the universe, since Hiroshima was vaporized on 6 Aug 1945
http://redshift.vif.com/JournalFiles/V19NO2pdf/V19N2MAN.pdf
http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/#comment-31
All these damages from CAGW propaganda might have been avoided if world leaders and leaders of the scientific community had not abused the integrity of science out of fear of “nuclear fires” that ended World War II in Aug 1945.
The late Professors Fred Hoyle and Paul Kazuo Kuroda left behind hints of abrupt changes in consensus science dogma immediately after World War II ended:
http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/#comment-53
Speaking of vapors… perhaps the reason that the AGW crowd clings so tenaciously to their ‘science’, is that they are afraid of the follow up questions that would obviously arise from any agreement by them that there has been a directed agenda for the whole world, being put
‘forward’ by WHO?
Trying to stop a climate from changing by killing yourself just ain’t worth it.
http://thegwpf.org/images/stories/gwpf-reports/goklany-public_health.pdf
Oliver,
I just keep on with my own research even through the scorn or ignorance.
This now has brought me to the place that evidence cannot be disputed as it is absolute facts. Velocity differences IS gravity as the planet is at a slower and slower velocity rate as you go to the core. This is why water pressure and weight is more and more as you go to the core. A direct relationship that can be mapped and calculated out. Considering we measure it currently by how much atmospheres of weight there is.
Kim,
I have found many theories need no evidence at all.
And yet, certainty in simple measurements can make the whole illusion of data collecting to prop up a theory fall totally apart.
This is exactly what scientists are afraid of. The illusion of pretending to do something useful when none of the mechanical processes are included to produce or reflect the heat data gathered. Pretty grafts that are absolutely useless in understanding the mechanics of the planet that they are suppose to understand and make predictions on.
Yet another study to show that people that don’t agree with you are defective or are lacking (a bit slow, don’t ya know) in some way mentally. Even if it is not really their fault.
I have a better communication strategy for them to try:
Show us the evidence! I mean real evidence, not correlations, fuzzy critters, flawed climate models and natural weather variations pawned off as unusual.
They also might try to explain why solar cycles being a better match to climate than CO2 should be ignored.
Thanks
JK
You said it well, Jim.
Oliver K. Manuel
Omanuel.wordpress.com/about/
This article is a fool’s errand. It blurs the line between science and opinion assuming that their opinion is correct and then tells the other side why they don’t see what is so obviously correct.
This article is not designed to get to the truth, because they feel they already have it. But it certainly shows us how similar the AGW crowd is to a religious sect.
But I did find this which I think explains how this article is intended to influence us.
The seven prin¬ci¬ples of human behav¬iour that con artists exploit, accord¬ing to the article:
• THE DIS¬TRAC¬TION PRIN¬CI¬PLE: While you are dis¬tracted by what retains your inter¬est, hus¬tlers can do any¬thing to you and you won’t notice.
• THE SOCIAL COM¬PLI¬ANCE PRIN¬CI¬PLE: Soci¬ety trains peo¬ple not to ques¬tion author¬ity. Hus¬tlers exploit this “sus¬pen¬sion of sus¬pi¬cious¬ness” to make you do what they want.
• THE HERD PRIN¬CI¬PLE: Even sus¬pi¬cious marks will let their guard down when every¬one next to them appears to share the same risks. Safety in num¬bers? Not if they’re all con¬spir¬ing against you.
• THE DIS¬HON¬ESTY PRIN¬CI¬PLE: Any¬thing ille¬gal you do will be used against you by the fraud¬ster, mak¬ing it harder for you to seek help once you real¬ize you’ve been had.
• THE DECEPTION PRINCIPLE: Thing and people are not what they seem. Hustlers know how to manipulate you to make you believe that they are.
• THE NEED AND GREED PRINCIPLE: Your needs and desires make you vul¬ner¬a-ble. Once hus¬tlers know what you really want, they can easily manipulate you.
• THE TIME PRINCIPLE: When you are under time pres¬sure to make an important choice, you use a different decision strategy. Husslers steer you towards a strategy involving less reasoning.
jim | April 28, 2012 at 4:10 pm |
So you want what? Bullet casings? Bodies? Video?
As an example of the level, type and strength of evidence that would satisfy you, could you furnish the evidence for your one claim of solar cycles being a ‘better match’ to climate than CO2?
I’d be delighted to have a hard target to shoot for, instead of something so ill-defined, in coming to a better understanding of what point you seek to make.
Looks like he accepts bogus correlations between sun spots and temperature as evidence.
WHILE discounting better evidence of the same sort about Green house gases.
However, in general, I agree with your approach. Before you can convince somebody you are well advised to tease out what exactly they take as evidence for and evidence against.
Bart,
How about this for starters:
A list of species that have gone extinct due to climate change.
Documentation of the 50 million climate change refugees.
Proof that clouds are a net positive impact on temp and ho how they do so.
Evidence that climate events are increasing and/or intensifying.
A description of the mechanism by which a warming climate inpacts local weather events.
I was listening on public radio to some author who is a “sustainability” expert (he’s Swedish) talk about loss of biodiversity. He kept refering to climate change, while also talking about the logging and conversion of Amazonian and Borneo rain forsts to agriculture and plantations. I’m betting the latter represents a far greater threat to biodiversity loss than climate change, yet so long as people bang the drum about how it will cause mass die-offs, attention will be diverted from addressing real problems, such a loss of habitate and changes in land use.
timg56 | April 30, 2012 at 4:47 pm |
You catch me on the horns of a dilemma:
You demand a list of species; jim demands no fuzzy critters. While I side with you that information about demonstrable habitat shifts ought be considered not just evidence, but excellent evidence depending on method of measuring and consideration put into alternative explanations, how am I going to meet jim’s challenge head on if I meet yours?
While you want to talk about refugees (which.. wasn’t that from some prediction of the world as it may be when CO2 levels are almost 800 ppmv? I can never keep track of who means what, when.
Perhaps a citation identifying the exact 50 million refugees you mean, and what exactly counts? Not that I find refugees at all relevant, given the unpredictability of human behavior. For all I know, 50 million people would rush into the arms of droughts and floods because some celebrity started a fad extreme sport or extreme diet. Still, it would be exciting to learn whether you’re being properly skeptical of a ludicrous claim (which is perfectly possible), or merely dismissive of likely outcomes out of hand.
And these coulds, are they natural clouds or fake clouds? Or whatever man-made clouds are called these days? I’m fairly certain, considering how vague your parameters, there’s a proof that matches what you’re saying, but I’d rather know better what you think you mean before I answer and you reply that I just don’t understand you.. because there’s so much ambiguity anyone may.
See, it’s not that we disagree, necessarily. It’s that I can’t tell from what you say whether we agree or not.
Bart,
I’m disappointed. While well written, your reply might as well come from a slick lawyer or politician. Very little of substance while pretneding to answer the question.
What do jim’s questions have to do with mine? If he doesn’t like or want a response to them, well that is his problem.
RE the refugees. I am referring to those refugees a UN panel stated would have been created by the impacts of global warming – primarily island and low lying coastal region residents – by the year 2010. 50 million was the figure they gave. And the reason they (or more accurately the claim) is relevant is because it was and is still being used as proof disaster may be just around the corner, thus justifying political and economic policy choices to “do something”.
As for clouds, seriously? That’s your reply? Fake clouds? I’m pretty sure if I point up to the sky and ask my 5 year old grand niece what those white fluffy things are, she’ll come up with the correct response. If you want to know what sort of evidence I might be looking for, asking for a better understanding of the role of clouds on climate is not only reasonable, but probably a requirement from anyone claiming they have a solid understanding of how climate works.
You and I don’t have to agree. All we have to do is not be dismissive of those who disagree with us and be honest in our conversations. Your response does not come off as an honest attempt to address what I said.
Bart, Same tyype of comment as Timg56. You seem smart so what about clouds? Optical depth changes in artic vs tropic. As temps warm some feedback changes sign. As clouds get thicker harder to measure properties let alone extrapalate to models. We dont’s have a good handle yet. So be polite to people you disagree with. Not so snide.
>>In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010. These people, it was said, would flee a range of disasters including sea level rise, increases in the numbers and severity of hurricanes, and disruption to food production….
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/15/the-un-disappears-50-million-climate-refugees-then-botches-the-disappearing-attempt/
But here’s a question. If the science is settled, shouldn’t you know what 50 million we are talking about?
Willis Eschenbach | May 3, 2012 at 2:46 am |
I can’t disagree that the UNEP was, and is a screw-up. But I can go further:
Environmentally Induced Migration Map – Clarification
GRID-Arendal offered a map for everybody to download and further use on Environmentally Induced Migration (“Fifty million climate refugees by 2010”) at this web address.
This graphic was originally produced for the Environmental Atlas of the newspaper Le Monde diplomatique.
We have decided to withdraw the product and accompanying text. It follows some media reports suggesting the findings presented were those of UNEP and the UN which they are not.
We hope this clarifies the situation.
They say on the page you link to that they _are_ the author. They say in the page I link to that they are not, and repudiate entirely its findings.
And they hope they’re clear about that.
timg56 | May 1, 2012 at 11:53 am |
Scott | May 1, 2012 at 12:22 pm |
goodspkr | May 1, 2012 at 5:27 pm |
I’m sorry you gents are all so disappointed by the flippancy of some of my words; I assure you, they were prompted by my own disappointment at the quality of what I was asked to reply to. I’ll attempt to do better.
Let’s start with the end.
http://www.grida.no/general/4700.aspx
Q: Who originally claimed in 2005 there would be 50 million climate refugees by 2010?
A: The Environmental Atlas of Le Monde Diplomatique (http://mondediplo.com/). Not the UN. Not the UNEP. The map was stored later at a UNEP clearinghouse for graphics, as that’s what that clearinghouse is for. “The UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps & Graphics Library is an on-going project to collect and catalogue all graphic products that have been prepared for publications and web-sites from the last 15 years in a wide range of themes related to environment and sustainable development. There are currently 2669 graphics available in the database.”
This was clearly a mistake, but I’d guess of the 2669 graphics on the site, it’s not the only one with a mistake, or the only one that the UN had nothing to do with creating or endorsing. Shame on the UNEP for not recognizing some maladept would disregard the disclaimer and call any old random image stored by the UN a UN prediction.
You might as well say Google produced it, because you found it by using Google. Except, you didn’t. One suspects you found it on WUWT. What with their sterling reputation for fulsome and honest, unbiased reporting. In other words, you could say WUWT predicted 50 million climate refugees, on the same basis.
So, you’ve been ranting for going on seven years now about a mistake as to who said what. Why? Didn’t you bother to check your sources? Or did you just like the nutty way it sounded so much and you knew if you checked that it could turn out to be shenanigans? Does my understanding of this somehow settle the science? (That’s meant in jest.)
Now do you apprehend some small measure of my disappointment?
And I was, clearly, being facetious with the phrase ‘fake clouds’. Let’s call the artificial man-made ones ‘cloud feedbacks’ instead. I’m not trying to sound snide; it’s more of an involuntary reflex. Like gagging at the sight of something rotten.
So, let’s as a first step look at what someone else says, who may be less snide: http://www.skepticalscience.com/clouds-negative-feedback-intermediate.htm
Can you confirm this is the point you have an issue with, and detail specifically where you find the case presented lacking? That there’s a difference between Arctic and lower lattitude behaviors?
I can see there’s plenty of uncertainty in the case, but the AGW argument neither pivots on this one point, nor are we much informed by the details unless we’re hoping to improve model performance.. which doesn’t much interest me except in the gee whiz neato sense of mathematical fascination.
Bart R | May 2, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Since a) the Atlas containing the map is listed on the page called “UNEP Publications“, and the author is listed as
I’m gonna say that a) the author is UNEP (GRID-Arendal is a part of UNEP), that b) it is a UNEP publication, and that c) you’re grasping at straws.
w.
Willis Eschenbach | May 2, 2012 at 11:29 pm |
You can say it, but it doesn’t mean it’s true.
The author of the web page was indeed UNEP/GRID-Arendal. As a curious coincidence, the 1927 Desiderata is often listed as written in 1692 because a later publisher listed the date of the building of his church as 1692 on a page containing the Desiderata.
Just because you can construct a way to misread something due a technology-caused ambiguity doesn’t change the facts. A graphic artist in the employ of an atlas published for use in newspapers by a private alarmist French concern is not a UN prediction. It’s more of a sign the UN is too large and poorly run, with too little personal responsibility for the consequences of its mistakes due too much bureaucracy.
Bart R | May 2, 2012 at 11:45 pm
My friend, I didn’t say it. The UNEP, on their UNEP web site, on their “UNEP-Publications” page, says that the author of the document is the UNEP. Wriggle all you want, but that’s what they say.
On the Monde Diplomatique page they say the atlas was the result of a “long-standing cooperation” with UNEP. And on the cover of the atlas, we find … oops … the logo of the UNEP. Since the UNEP is taking credit, I take “long-standing cooperation” to mean that the UNEP commissioned the Monde Diplomatique to produce it.
In either case, the UNEP are very happy to promote it and take credit for it and list it on their “UNEP-Publications” page and say that they are the author of it with no mention of Le Monde Diplomatique and put their logo on the cover of it … call me crazy, but that makes it a UNEP publication in my book.
Looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, you can call it a “technology-caused ambiguity” all you want, I call it a duck.
w.
Bart, do me a favor, would yah, guy? Please don’t discover Joy’s emoticons. I mean, like, I’m barely hanging in there as it is after this last comment of yours did all its damage. I mean, like, I’m tellin’ yah, Bart, if your last had had Joy-style emoticons at the end, well, then, I just plain wouldn’t be here now. I mean, like, there’s only so much a normal human being can take, you know.
mike | May 3, 2012 at 12:29 am |
I agree with you entirely. (Also, I wouldn’t know where to start.)
Willis Eschenbach | May 3, 2012 at 12:28 am |
We’re not as far apart as you seem to think.
I think the UNEP was idiotic to set up its re-distribution page as it did. It puts the UN stamp on every Thomas-Richard-et-Henri who throws out whatever baseless trash they want online. Arguably, the UN becomes the publisher, and carry a publisher’s liability.
There’s a near parallel with the IPCC, except the IPCC .. well, there’s a near enough parallel. Too much naive and clumsy eagerness, too little personal responsibility, too much bureaucracy, cumbersome editorial and publishing policies.
My quibble is with calling Le Monde Diplomatique’s alarmism the UNEP’s “prediction.” It implies more intentionality than apparently there actually was, and is a needlessly agititative approach to do so without at least citing the real origins of the work, and noting that the UNEP posted a take-down when someone dragged them to the website and pointed out they were being complete idiots. (Again.)
I’d be too glad to take swipes at the part of the UNEP that makes predictions, were it to have made this prediction, but I’m kinda a stickler about laying the blame at the right feet. In this case, whoever at UNEP thinks it wise to distribute claims unvetted, plus Le Monde Diplomatique.
Bart, you still seem to be holding to your prior position that the UN was not the author, but only the curator. To use your example:
Well, yes, Bart. If Google were to put a document on a page called “Google Publications”, and listed the author as “Google Corporation”, and put the Google logo on the front, you bet I’d say Google produced it.
But that’s not what Google does, is it?
Face it, your claim that the UNEP is just the blameless curator doesn’t pass the laugh test. Since the UNEP claims it and sells it and puts their logo on the front and says that they are the author, your idea that somehow it is the same as finding something on Google is a non-starter.
Of course, rather than admit that obvious error of yours, rather than admit your Google analogy doesn’t even begin to work, you now want to play all kind of word games to absolve the UNEP of authorship.
But the UNEP themselves are claiming authorship, which means you’ll need more than handwaving.
The UNEP are not saying “here’s a document by someone else that we happen to be selling”. They are saying that it is a UNEP document, and that the author is the UNEP … so who should I believe? The UNEP, who say that they are the author and who put their logo on the front and claim ownership and sell it on their “UNEP-Documents” page … or some random anonymous internet popup without a scrap of evidence to back up his unusual ideas?
Me, I’ll go with the evidence, thanks. If the UNEP is not the author, don’t you think the actual author would be complaining like crazy? Authors I know go postal when someone else claims to have written their work …
Next, you state that the UNEP does this regularly, that it claims authorship of things that were not written or commissioned by the UNEP, but in fact were written by someone else. According to you:
Since according to you it is common for the UN to appropriate the work of others as its own … perhaps you could give us a half dozen examples of the UN claiming authorship of someone else’s work.
Finally, if the UN claims ownership of some prediction, at that point it is the UN’s prediction, no matter if they originated it or not. That’s what claiming ownership means, it means that at that point it is the UN’s prediction.
w.
IMO, the best evidence is the measurement of an increasing greenhouse effect:
“Increases in greenhouse forcing inferred from the outgoing longwave radiation spectra of the Earth in 1970 and 1997,” J.E. Harries et al, Nature 410, 355-357 (15 March 2001).
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v410/n6826/abs/410355a0.html
(And there have been several followups.) Correspondingly, downward longwave radiation is increasing:
“Radiative forcing – measured at Earth’s surface – corroborate the increasing greenhouse effect,” R. Phillipona et al, Geo Res Letters, v31 L03202 (2004)
http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2004/2003GL018765.shtml
David Appell— IMO, the best evidence is the measurement of an increasing greenhouse effect:
JK—————-How does that implicate man’s CO2 emission? Where is the connection between CO2 and radiation balance? Especially since water vapor causes much more “greenhouse” effect than CO2. And since clouds have been shown to be created as a result of galactic & solar effects.
And if you argue that it is only CO2 causing the radiation unbalance, where is the proof that it is man’s CO2 and not nature’s CO2 (which is 95% of the CO2 emission).
If you drag up that old tired carbon 14 argument, then explain how we know that man’s CO2 is the ONLY conceivable source of “old” carbon.
So, David, as I have been asking you for several years, where is the real proof that man’s CO2 is causing dangerous global warming.
Thanks
JK
There’s no hope for you if you deny the CO2 rise is human caused. The evidence for that is overwhelming.
It amuses me that you claim “clouds have been shown to be created as a result of galactic & solar effects.”
Not true. No evidence for that. Your brain is upside down. Things with evidence you deny. Things without evidence you state them as facts.
lolwot:
I see comments like this on a fairly regular basis, but so far, I’ve never gotten an answer to my response to them: What percent of the rise in CO2 levels should be attributed to anthropogenic influence? What percentage should be attributed directly to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions?
Would you care to give me an answer?
please describe your conclusive evidence that the co2 is anthropogenic – thanks
As I said below, I am 99% sure at least 80% of the rise is human caused. Eg around that sort of range.
Iolwot
Doesn’t Gavin reckon around 25% or so is caused by man?
tonyb
lolwot:
Thanks for the response! You’re the first person to give me one on this topic. You’ve also surprised me by giving a much lower figure than I expected. I don’t think most people who believe in AGW would go as low as 80%, even for a lower limit. Of course, I could be wrong.
Here you go:
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php
What takes CO2 out of the biosphere is geology. What returns it to the biosphere is geology.
Carbon might move around a bit in the carbon cycle, but unless you bury it in some inert form in the ground, it will put upward pressure on the net CO2 level in the atmosphere. And we bury only a tiny fraction of carbon in inert form in the ground, due the power of microbial action.
Man is currently emitting 100 times the CO2 that geology is.
Unless Svensmark has proven supernovae are shipping CO2 to Earth from space, the rising CO2 levels are demonstrably chiefly due human action.
You forget oceans. The annual atmospheric CO2 growth is smaller than the human emissions (<50 % stays in the atmosphere in average). It varies a lot (~20 – 80%) and it seems to be driven by global temperature (excellent correlation). If the correlation continues, the growth will decline in the cooling world. In 2011 it was only 1.88 ppm, in spite of the record human emissions. Only a very small part of the environmental CO2 is in the atmosphere, much larger part is in the oceans. The atmospheric CO2 is determined by climatic factors, not by human emissions. Nature will demonstrate.
“What takes CO2 out of the biosphere is geology.”
In what way does geology do that ?
Edim | April 30, 2012 at 5:10 am |
I do not ‘forget’ oceans. They’re in the biosphere. They can sequester a lot of CO2, but do not remove it from the carbon cycle, and are also in turn sensitive to its level. Higher or lower warming — within the range of Earth surface temperature scale — will not alter the net amount of CO2 in the carbon cycle by very much.
The ocean will take up and dissolve, or warm up and eject, CO2; plants will take up and bind by photosynthesis CO2, or expire it, or animals will take up carbon from plants and expire CO2, or microbes will digest plants or animals or each other and expire CO2, unless the carbon in them is rendered inert and buried — that last one happens very little.
The CO2 in the atmosphere experiences upward pressure and will dynamically seek to remove that pressure by rising in concentration as a net result of all of these activities due increasing CO2 content via such feedbacks.
Pretending the ocean hasn’t always been part of the system is just a way to hide the incline.
“As I said below, I am 99% sure at least 80% of the rise is human caused.”
My question is: what evidence leads to this conclusion. I am not asking for a cite, which is why I asked you to describe this evidence.
BTW David,
Do you have any analysis of the latest Henrik Svensmark (peer reviewed even!) paper which Nigel Calder described on his blog (calderup.wordpress.com/):
Today the Royal Astronomical Society in London publishes (online) Henrik Svensmark’s latest paper entitled “Evidence of nearby supernovae affecting life on Earth”. After years of effort Svensmark shows how the variable frequency of stellar explosions not far from our planet has ruled over the changing fortunes of living things throughout the past half billion years. Appearing in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, It’s a giant of a paper, with 22 figures, 30 equations and about 15,000 words.
(Read the blog of the editor of “ New Scientist”, during its days as a credible source of science information, for a lengthy shredding of Appell style “science”)
If this long time science writer is correct, its pretty close to game over for “the man is guilty” Gore/Jones/Hansen/Jones school of pseudo science.
Thanks
JK
Svensmark’s paper says nothing about the warming effect of rising CO2. Zip all.
jim | April 29, 2012 at 6:55 am |
So, to be clear, the level of evidence it would take to convince you is the same level of observational precision and confidence, analysis and logic, as is contained in Svensmark’s supernova paper?
I’d like for you to confirm that, if you would, and let me know of any other conditions or parameters that you would require.
If you’d be so kind.
Thanks in advance.
No–it’s not the level of evidence necessary to “convince” us–it’s the level of evidence necessary to conclude that the “science is not settled.” For the umpteenth time, it is your side that bears the burden of proof, not those of us who remain unconvinced.
qbeamus | April 30, 2012 at 3:21 pm |
No–it’s not the level of evidence necessary to “convince” us–it’s the level of evidence necessary to conclude that the “science is not settled.” For the umpteenth time, it is your side that bears the burden of proof, not those of us who remain unconvinced.
I have a side? One that would want me? I’m sure they’d be as surprised as I am.
But to parse what you say: you don’t want a convincing level of evidence — though that’s what jim seems to say he wants.. (maybe I’m on his side?)
As it happens, I’m not really kindly disposed toward the phrase “the science is settled.” I know what it meant when it was said. It started being trotted out in the late ’90s by opponents of Clinton on Kyoto after he made a speach that actually used the phrase, “The science is clear and compelling. We humans are changing the global climate.” (http://articles.cnn.com/1997-06-26/politics/clinton.UN_1_climate-change-global-climate-emission-trading?_s=PM:ALLPOLITICS)
Perhaps someone did say it before the claim “the science is not settled” came back, but then, science doesn’t settle. Debates recede; science gets relatively clear, and confidence levels become compelling; the dust for a time settles. However, all variants of the phrase with or without ‘not’ are equally egregious and useless. If you expect a debate on it from me, you’ll get none. It’s a waste of time to respond to the words at all.
Now, if you want to claim a Null Hypothesis, then the phrase ‘burden of proof’ may be meaningful.
So by all means, for the first time, state your exact Null in a form subject to falsification by observation, experiment and/or logic.
Because everything else is just meaningless rant.
they dont have a meaningful null.
I just ran across this blog post
blah-blah-blah-vs-equations”
meaningless rant = “Blah Blah Blah”
Just as SoD observes, I can’t find the equations to support alternative hypotheses. I will keep looking though.
Fair enough.
In my opinion, there is not one, but many interesting null hypotheses. Before taking policy action, they’d all need to be resolved. I suppose we could formulate them into a compound proposition. Perhaps:
“Human CO2 emissions do not cause a significant, harmful change in global temperaturess that would not be more efficiently dealt with through adaptation rather than the preventive course of reducing emissions.”
I personally find the negative feedback hypothesis to be an especially interesting one. Notwithstanding the pooh-poohing in this thread, I believe it is highly likely that negative feedbacks make the temperature response to CO2 approximately zero. I have many theories about why, but I don’t know. But I know that unstable systems don’t last long, and the Earth has.
So there is my unscintific starting point. Only rigorous scientific proof is likely to alter it, because in the absence of rigorous scientific proof, we are free to choose our starting positions based on such aesthetic criteria. Physicists work that way all the time.
Since the A(CO2)GW hypothesis is all over the place, there are multiple Nulls (no effect/relationship), such as no human effect on the atmospheric CO2, no atmospheric CO2 effect on the temperature etc. No significant effect counts too.
Edim said:
Do you have any equations or models? Or do you thrive on empty narratives, i.e. the “blah, blah, blah”?
WHT, better sensible (and correct) explanations than empty (and misapplied) equations and models, like by the consensus. It’s standard physics (energy and mass conservation, thermodynamics and fluid mechanics, heat transfer). I have very little time for this (my job is very stressful) – I already waste way too much time on this.
The Earth’s energy balance is not solved properly. The atmosphere is warmed multi-modally (by the surface plus directly absorbed solar) and cooled exclusively by radiation. The surface is warmed by the absorbed solar and cooled multi-modally by the atmosphere plus the direct radiation to space. Connect the dots.
http://science-edu.larc.nasa.gov/EDDOCS/images/Erb/components2.gif
The CO2 (cooling) effect is very likely insignificant though. If not, it’s a nice negative feedback to warming/cooling.
Poor baby Edim. I suggest you stay away from climate science, as the difficulty with the subject matter is interfering with your regular work.
To a real scientist, stress and strain are merely physics terms.
Jim
Svensmark: “increased GCR can cause temporary increase in cloudiness and cooling.”
AGW: increased C02 causes increased warming over time
Do you see how neither of these “theories” has anything to do with the other?
for example: “C02 causes warming and increased GCR can cause cooling”
see that sentence??
Find the contradiction. you can’t. you can’t because Svensmarks theory is orthogonal to AGW. Could GCR cause cooling? maybe. there is some evidence that suggests that for a couple days after Forbush events you get some cooling. temporary. Svensmarks latest? maybe could be that when you have a large number of SN you get prolonged cooling.
so what? that says nothing whatsoever about C02. Nothing.
side issue. utterly and completely a side issue
The Svensmark paper indicates that GCRs have caused climate changes. CAGW depends on the assumption that those same climate changes were caused by CO2. If Svensmark is right then CAGW is based on incorrect assumptions ie, CAGW is wrong.
Not much of CAGW is caused directly by CO2, so CAGW can be wrong even if CO2 itself does warm as claimed.
qbeamus | May 1, 2012 at 10:58 am |
In my opinion, there is not one, but many interesting null hypotheses.
Fair enough, but we’re hoping to keep the list as pertinent as possible, for the sake of economy of time. Because getting things done is good.
Before taking policy action, they’d all need to be resolved.
I disagree. Policy precedes sufficient information to act logically quite often, due constraints of time or resources, and yet properly. This is known as bounded rationalism or decision making under uncertainty.
I suppose we could formulate them into a compound proposition. Perhaps:
“Human CO2 emissions do not cause a significant, harmful change in global temperaturess that would not be more efficiently dealt with through adaptation rather than the preventive course of reducing emissions.”
Hrm. But this, I can address immediately.
Adaptation, I think we can agree, would be necessary in any eventuality regardless of climate: human conditions in much of the world are miserable and we know allow for significant advances in delivering utility and relief to many peoples. This is regardless of source of funds or particulars of political situation.
Every form of adaptation would require some practical, specific plan for each condition or circumstance. As the climate is nonlinear, there is no way to argue which specific adaptation is most efficient very far in advance.
However, we do know mathematically that increased perturbation of nonlinear systems tends to increase risk of extreme events, even though we can’t count on this to always happen and can’t be overly accurate in predictions of how this is expressed. These changes in risk are nonconsultative: the people who cause them by emitting CO2 (note, this is ‘risk’, not direct harm) do so without asking the permission of everyone whose risk is increased. They are rivalrous: once one party has consumed a risk factor, no one else may benefit from its use for a very, very long time, but only can consume a yet higher risk. They are valuable: lower risks are a premium commodity.
So, we need a better Null, I think.
I personally find the negative feedback hypothesis to be an especially interesting one. Notwithstanding the pooh-poohing in this thread, I believe it is highly likely that negative feedbacks make the temperature response to CO2 approximately zero. I have many theories about why, but I don’t know. But I know that unstable systems don’t last long, and the Earth has.
Unstable systems can last millions or billions of years. While it’s true Earth has many conceivable negative feedback mechanisms and/or stable endpoints (like snowball Earth, eg), their existence isnt’ as much at issue as is their inconvenience.
It is a pronoiac proposition that whatever feedbacks Earth may have all conveniently bend themselves to humanity’s favor. Far more likely, they cascade and shift and change over many tens of millennia (often suddenly, but many sudden changes might typify an epoch) to no particular creature’s favor at all, arbitrarily.
Do you want to incur the more extreme expense of adaptation on behalf of billions of people without their permission and without compensating them, because you personally find the idea interesting?
So there is my unscintific starting point. Only rigorous scientific proof is likely to alter it, because in the absence of rigorous scientific proof, we are free to choose our starting positions based on such aesthetic criteria. Physicists work that way all the time.
I don’t believe I understand your argument about risk. I believe you’re trying to say something like “people who cause warming are benefitting from costs they’re pushing on other people.” If so, I think you’re just begging the question. In any event, I don’t understand what you mean by “we need a better null,” but if you can clarify your position, perhaps I can respond better.
As for my “pronoiac proposition,” I’m sure you’re right that occasionally things shift radically, but I deny that you, or anyone else, has enough information to know whether warming, cooling, dumping CO2, or sinking it, is most likely to bring about, or prevent, the next radical climate shift. Absent that information, I deny that there is any blame to be had if my policies happen to trigger it.
qbeamus | May 9, 2012 at 3:36 pm |
The Risk argument is a standard, classic trespass argument. I’ve never heard it said to beg the question before.
Simply put, there is clearly trespass going on. A huge number of people are saying they want CO2 levels to be lower. These people have as valid a claim to their share of the carbon cycle that mediates CO2 levels as anyone, given everyone is born dependent on breathe. Their property claim cannot be diminished without depriving them of control of one of the basics of life. So anyone who is using the carbon cycle by making lucrative CO2 emissions — which is the same as any lucrative burning or selling of fuel — is a rival to the property rights of these people who have made a definite and contrary statement about the use they desire their property be put. In the metaphor of land rights, the carbon cycle is posted, “Do not enter”.
The lack of consent, where society deems such a manifest public good that forced expropriation on the principle of emminent domain is justified, by legal tradition requires compensation for this trespass. If there is no compensation for rivalrous lucrative use of the carbon cycle, then the precedent for land use, for all property rights, is profound and must be avoided. Or do you want anyone who thinks they can make a buck to wander into your home at all hours on the same principle?
To set the level of compensation, one generally takes into account the thinking of the trespassed against, and how much they value the enjoyment of the property they have lost through expropriation. Well, the people who do have an issue with CO2 levels undoubtably use terms of future costs. Future costs is defined in “Risk”. No further proof is needed of harm, real or perceived, in discussing compensation for unconsented trespass.
When actual harm is discussed and determined — and again, that too is subject not to the level of proof demanded by people who expect scientific certainty, but by the lower standard of proof of civil law — is for cases of compensation for tort. You would only need this higher level of proof if you were ready to say that past excess emitters must pay victims. Is that what you’re saying you want to see happen? For anyone who feels they’ve lost something and can prove to the level of the ‘reasonable person test’ to sue anyone with deep pockets who ever burned a gallon of gasoline?
Maybe competing court trials is the way to settle all this. On one side, James Cameron suing any random Joe with a big car and a drafty house for trespassing on his carbon cycle; on the other side, Jo Nova suing some random schoolgirl who asks her teacher how long before the oceans boil, for causing the future economic collapse of Australia.
@ Jim | April 28, 2012 at 4:10 pm says: Show us the evidence! I mean real evidence, not correlations, fuzzy critters, flawed climate models and natural weather variations pawned off as unusual. 2] They also might try to explain why solar cycles being a better match to climate than CO2 should be ignored.
Jim, people are scared from ”real evidences” one cannot argue against ”real evidences” . Real evidences are simple, easy to understand, I have all the proofs / evidences.
2] solar cycle affect the climate as much as Paris Hilton’s menstrual cycles affect the climate. If you think that Sahara has different ”solar cycles than Brazil; so they have COMPLETELY different climates; you are scared from the truth; same as all the fundamental Warmist / fake Skeptics. Only real proofs will have happy ending. The CO2 phony GLOBAL warmings + the solar cycles, will be declared for what they really are: two different mountains of crap, with a same stench. Get on my blog, expose yourself to real proofs, not ”in 100years” but ALL proven now; ”beyond any reasonable doubt” 1] H2O controls the climate, not CO2 or the sunspots. 2] oxygen + nitrogen regulate the temperature, not CO2 or the fanatics from both camps. 3] climatic changes have nothing to do with the phony GLOBAL warmings. Warmings / coolings are NEVER global. 4] if one part of the planet gets warmer – other part / parts simultaneously must get colder, the LAWS IF PHYSICS and my formulas say so. Ask yourself: do you want the real proofs / facts; or do you want different crap than the Warmist promote?
Do you really think the laws of physics say that if one part of the planet gets warmer, another part must get colder???
@ David Appell | April 28, 2012 at 10:45 pm | asked: Do you really think the laws of physics say that if one part of the planet gets warmer, another part must get colder???
David, not just ”think” but I have proven it, ”beyond any reasonable doubt”. The laws of physics are consistent, reliable; rely on what is reliable. Same laws of physics were 12000BC, 5BC, 1200AD, TODAY, and same laws of physics will be in 100years.
1]One part of the planet cannot get warmer for more than 7-8 minutes – if another part doesn’t get colder. Because: on the part that gets warmer; oxygen + nitrogen expand INSTANTLY upwards – accordingly into the stratosphere – release extra heat, or intercept extra coldness, if you will – that extra coldness falls some place to the ground in a jiffy. 2] BUT, if other place / places is colder – there the air shrinks and accommodates for the extra volume of air from place that is gone warmer.
2] the whole planet CANNOT get colder for more than 10 minutes, also. Because: when oxygen + nitrogen get colder -> they SHRINK -> release less heat for FEW MINUTES, until equalizes. Do you know how much heat the sun deposits here in few minutes?
In other words: same as a ”see-saw plank” – B] bigger ripples in the pond don’t make more water, why Don? Go to my website and try to prove me wrong on anything; this is an official challenge. What I have, contradicts both camps; what I have can be proven / replicated NOW, not in 100y !!!!
Was the Earth colder, on average, during the last ice age? If so, how did it warm up, which by your argument would seem to be impossible?
David Appell | April 28, 2012 at 11:48 pm asked: Was the Earth colder, on average, during the last ice age? If so, how did it warm up, which by your argument would seem to be impossible?
Davo, during the ”Ice Age” in the northern hemisphere for 12000years- Australia had HOTTER days than today. I said that: everything I state – I can prove IN DETAILS, all can be replicated!!! The earth wasn’t colder or warmer on average. Extra heat in the troposphere is not accumulative. GLOBAL temp going up and down as a yo-yo is a woo-doo culture, not factual, has being totally disproven by me. The thermostat is open, for the last 150y hasn’t accumulated enough extra heat, to boil one chicken egg. Oxygen + nitrogen expand / shrink INSTANTLY, in change of heat. Where the troposphere expands when gets warmer, there is colder than on the ground by 105C. If you want ”real proofs” you have face the reality; before 1990, ”climatologist were never scrutinized; they were lying than much more than after 1990, when scrutiny started
On my blog is in details why the ice age started and why it finished. Overall, temp is always the same in the troposphere. Sea temp, Arctic temp; that is all a smokescreen, to confuse even more, the ignorant. Global temperature is: when the heat leaves the water, the soil, the fuel, the volcano, the atom bomb. David, don’t be scared from the truth; I have only 7-8 pages there – you will learn 1000 times more from it, than from all localizes warmings / coolings in the past; that were sold as GLOBAL, by the original swindlers for the last 100years
Before they can show us any evidence, they first have to demonstrate any “climate chnages” are abnormal, or unnatural. That is what is difficult for them. If they cannot do that, then we have no reason to listen to them, or hand them billions of dollars.
Jim – absolutely couldn’t agree more. Its bizarre that the authors insist on treating your average Joe in the street as an idiot, incapable of thinking for himself. The reason there is a limited response to the call for action is simply because most people can see through it. Fantastic stories require fantastic evidence … and there isn’t any. Its as simple as that.
How about telling me exactly what I’m getting for my out of pocket money. IF THE ANSWER ISN’T “IT WILL FIX THE PROBLEM” then go bother some one else. If the answer is some poor folks aren’t doing as well as you and you need to give your money to them, then, again, you need to go some where else. All the above is stipulated on the premiss that there IS a problem. Yell and wave all you want, until it actually gets a lot hotter, the seas raise dramatically, the poles melt :), the glaciers melt :)…….. I am not gonna give you a dime. I know snake oil salesman when I see them. I’ve been to the carnival :)
I’d like to see some of that as well.
I love it. The author considers ‘climate change’ a moral imperative, but seems not to think truth-telling is one, see ‘focus messaging on the costs, not benefits’.
===========
Read it again. The author considers climate change a moral imperative *of the liberals* and wonders how to convince conservatives. Not being one, he doesn’t get it.
Assuming unnecessary guilt is a moral imperative, but truth-telling is not. There is a lesson in there, but I’ll not begin to perceive it correctly until my moral intuition has been manipulated.
=============
It’s something about “end’s justifying the means”…….. I’ve heard it some where also :)
Truth-telling is the only moral imperative, all the others follow.
Exactly, and the only reason not to tell the truth is to deceive. Else……. you would tell the truth.
To say nothing of ” Leverage human susceptibility to social influence and approval” – as though that were not the strategy on which the whole sorry business was founded.
Judith, from the extracts you have provided, this looks like the worst of the “CAGW is a fact – why are we losing public faith in it?” genre you have seen fit to publish. In essence they are all one means or another of expressing the petulance of a priesthood whose cult has had its day. Before I take the trouble to read it, does this one have any other point, and if so what?
This stuff always reminds me of the scene in The Hitchiker’s Guide to the Universe (can’t find the clip, so this from memory) in which a pair of mice have been running the show by prophesying doom to all who disobey them. At one point Arthur Dent simply turns his back on them and wanders off, whereupon their doom laden tirade turns to a litany of all the things Arthur is ruining by flouting their authority, including “appearing on chat shows”….
If anyone can find a clip, it’s a bottler, and perfectly captures the rising tide of petulance of a disregarded and discredited priestly class that this piece exemplifies.
So much talk about cognative ability and the biggest skeptics are those who understand the data and it’s limitations. Perhaps more effort should go to figuring out why knowledgeable people with disagreements are not talking to each other.
Strategies 2 and 3 are internally contradictory, and I suspect the dissonance is from the assumption, not in evidence, that anthropogenic climate change is bad.
=================
Once again our hostess has chosen a subject which assumes that CAGW is real. Since the climate sensitivity of CO2 addded to the atmosphere from current levels is indistinguishable from zero, this is another thread talking about a non-issue.
I’m curious just what you think the climate sensitivity is. Given the increase in greenhouse gasses (which include more than just CO2), I’d find it hard to believe what you say unless you’re going to claim the sensitivity is less than one degree.
I guess you could argue that lags in the system would spread out the expected increase in temperature, and thus we wouldn’t be able to see the signal for X amount of time, but…
Brandon, I can’t speak for Jim but it seems pretty clear that he thinks the sensitivity is zero, which is certainly less than one degree. This is my view, in any case. So there is no expected increase in temperature. Why it is zero is unknown I think, but it certainly seems to be the physical case.
I can’t keep track of the views of everyone I see post on blogs, hence why I asked. Especially since I think that position is absurd.
For climate sensitivity to be zero, one of two things would have to be true. First, our understanding of fairly simple radiative physics could be wrong. Second, there could be some unknown negative feedback which would perfectly counteract the effect of carbon dioxide (and presumably other greenhouse gasses). In either case, the position has absolutely no support from scientific theories. There are no calculations or physics to support it.
This means you are suggesting people reject a theory based upon simple science, without being able to provide any reason why it would be wrong. And why? I haven’t followed your posts very carefully, but it seems you’re claiming there have been mysterious and unexplained step-wise jumps in temperature, not steady warming like we’d expect from AGW.
Maybe I’ve missed something, but to me, that just sounds like a wild imagination having too much time to itself.
Sensitivity cannot be zero
sensitivity is defined as the change in C per change in watts/m2
for example: if you raise TSI by 1 watts, what is the change in C
from that change in forcing.
There are two separate questions:
1. What is the change in FORCING ( watts) from a doubling of
C02 concentration (ppm)
2. What is the change in C from an increase ( any increase) in
forcing.
Sensitivity concerns the system response over time to a change in forcing.
It is not zero. If you decrease forcing ( turn the suns WATTS up or down) you will see a change in temperature. The gain in that system is the sensitivity.
Since the total solar irradiation has increased significantly over the last half billion years, and the temperature of the earth has stayed in the same narrow range over that time, it appears that indeed the sensitivity is zero …
The problem is that you believe the paradigm that claims that temperature is a linear function of forcing. I hold, to the contrary, that the climate is governed by a whole host of thermostatic mechanisms. These prevent the temperature from changing in response to changing inputs, such has the increasing irradiation of the sun.
w.
How about it is zero because it was made to operate that way.
Brandon Schollenberer writes “I’m curious just what you think the climate sensitivity is.”
Obviously you have not read my postings on Eductaion and the Age of Uncertainty, and the latest Week in Review, where I lay out precisely why I know that the climate sensitivity of CO2 added to the atmosphere from current levels is indistinuishable from zero. There are there for anyone to read, and challenge the science I presented. No-one has, in my opinion, challenged this science.
To recap, Girma’s graph shows conclusively that adding CO2 to the atmosphere from current levels has absolutely no effect whatsoever on the long term temperature/time graph. So the observed data proves CO2 has no effect on temperature, and, according to the scientific method, we always believe observed data over hypothetical estimations and the use of non-validated models, as proposed by the proponents of CAGW.
If you disaree witrh my conclusion, please address the science I have presented.
Jim Cripwell:
As it happens, I did read every single one of your comments. I simply did not associate your name with them. As I told David Wojick, I cannot keep track of the views of every person I see post on blogs. I knew I had seen your name before, but having never had an exchange with you, I had no particular reason to remember what you, specifically, had said.
If your belief is based on Girma’s graph, I think that is enough to end this exchange. Girma’s continual postings have been flawed in obvious ways for as long as I can remember, and I don’t intend to spend time on them anymore.
You are, of course, free to disagree. You can believe Girma’s graphs are meaningful, and support strong conclusions. You can even talk to people about how adding greenhouse gasses will have no discernible impact, in direct contradiction to basic science, without being able to offer a sensible explanation. I don’t think you will convince many people, but I obviously cannot speak too harshly of your beliefs if I am not willing to discuss why they are wrong.
But let me offer you a bit of unsolicited advice. Saying things are obvious when they are actually untrue is not a good way to start an exchange. Neither is spelling a person’s name wrong. These sort of things don’t prove anything, but to do tend to suggest a disturbing lack of caution.
Brandon, you write “in direct contradiction to basic science,”
This is strongly resent. I defy you to show that my idea that the climate sensitivity for a doubling of CO2 added from current levels, is in direct contradiction to basic science. The fact that there is no CO2 signal in ANY modern temperature/time graph, forgetting Girma’s graph, shows that my claim has a very sound basis in science.
Sorry about the missing “g” in you name. I have since found out the “g” on my laptop is sticking.
Thank you for the unsolicited advice, which I will promptly ignore.
Jim Cripwell, perhaps I should have been more clear:
If there wasn’t a single temperature station in the world, we’d still know to expect increased levels of greenhouse gasses (which include more than CO2) to cause warming. That’s the basic science you’re contradicting. As I told David Wojick, the only way climate sensitivity to a doubling of (effective) CO2 levels could be zero is if our understanding of basic science is wrong, or if there is some unknown negative feedback which directly and exactly counteracts the increased forcing.
There is no explanation based on science as to why increased levels of greenhouse gasses would not cause warming. Whether or not we can see an effect, we know that effect should be there. That was my point.
By the way, my name also doesn’t have a “c” in it.
Jim, actually, there is a “signature” of sorts. The 5.35ln(Cf/Co) does match very closely the UAH mid troposphere trend. Unfortunately, as Brandon mentions, there is more to consider than just CO2. Since it is such a good match, that indicates that the “actual” CO2 forcing impact is less than 5.35ln(Cf/Co) :)
http://i122.photobucket.com/albums/o252/captdallas2/comparingCO2focingtoUAH.png Since the “signature” is only over land, it opens up the possibility that land use is being amplified by the additional greenhouse gases. Which in turn implies that the 5.35 is not really a constant.
Brandon you write “If there wasn’t a single temperature station in the world, we’d still know to expect increased levels of greenhouse gasses (which include more than CO2) to cause warming. That’s the basic science you’re contradicting”
I have never denied that adding CO2 to the atmosphere causes warming. It is clear form the basic science that it does. The issue is how much warming will a doubling CO2 cause? I never stated this was zero. What I stated, and I quote
“where I lay out precisely why I know that the climate sensitivity of CO2 added to the atmosphere from current levels is indistinguishable from zero.”
Please notice the precise wording, which I crafted deliberately. I use the word “indistinguishable”.. So the actual warming could be 0.01 C, which is warming, but which is indistinguishable from zero.
Sorry about the “c”. That was clearly in error. But I suggest you read what I actually wrote a little more carefully.
Jim Cripwell, I explicitly asked what your view on climate sensitivity was, and David Wojick said it was clear you felt it was zero. A while after this, you responded to my question without disputing that description.
Instead, you said the sensitivity is “indistinuishable [sic] from zero.” I took that as saying the sensitivity is zero, or close enough to make no difference. I don’t see anyway to interpret that as not meaning the sensitivity is far less than the ~1C we know to expect from basic, radiative physics, and thus I see no problem with what I’ve said. In the meantime, you say:
I haven’t said a word about how much warming we have seen because of greenhouse gasses, so I don’t know why you are talking about that. As I said, the temperature record is completely irrelevant to the lower limit I’ve provided.
In any event, there is no way to argue for a sensitivity significantly lower than one degree without disputing basic science or postulating a mysterious, unknown negative feedback. As such, unless you intend to tell me you agree to the lower limit I’ve provided, I see nothing meriting correction in what I’ve said.
Of course, if you do intend to agree to that lower limit, and have intended such all along, I’ll apologize for misunderstanding you. I’ll also ask you to explain how your words could possibly indicate such.
Brandon you write “I don’t see anyway to interpret that as not meaning the sensitivity is far less than the ~1C we know to expect from basic, radiative physics”
I do not accept that basic radiative physics has established that the sensitivity must be at least ~1 C.
a. This number, the no-feedback climate sensitivity, not only has not been mesaured, it cannot be measured. It is an abomination in physics.
b. This no-feedback climate sensitivity assumes that the estimations can be made by only looking at radititon effects. This assumption has never been justified.
This is a huge subject which I wish our hostess would, once again, have a thread to all by itself. But I see no reason why anyone has to believe that it has been proven beyond doubt that a doubling of CO2 must produce a rise of surface temperature of around 1 C. The observed data, which is always superior to hypothetical estimations, shows that the number is, indeed, indistinguishable from zero.
“b. This no-feedback climate sensitivity assumes that the estimations can be made by only looking at radititon effects. This assumption has never been justified.”
Jim, ‘never been justified’ is very mildly put. Not even all radiation effects are looked at. The cooling bottleneck (if at all) for the Earth’s climate system is the radiative cooling to space, NOT the multi-modal cooling at the surface. CO2 can (in theory) enhance this radiative cooling and therefore have a net cooling effect on the surface. The problems like this can be found in standard heat transfer textbooks. Warmists would fail the exam miserably. Back to school! Maybe they learn something about the real climate change too (the one which never stops changing), not only the Orwellian one.
Jim Cripwell, it would appear my view of your position was completely accurate all along. You claim:
You don’t accept this, but it’s true. You say:
Nobody says you have to believe that. They just say you have to believe that if you want to participate in discussions predicated upon it. You can go on and on about it being wrong, but if people don’t agree with you, you’re not going to accomplish anything. You especially won’t accomplish anything by saying things like:
Observed data is not “always superior to hypothetical estimations.” In a complex system with lags, feedback and noise, which has only been observed for a short time, observed data can easily be useless. It certainly isn’t inherently superior, as you act.
Thanks, Brandon. I hope we can agree that we agree to differ.
Jim Cripwell, I think I’ve been clear that I have no problem with you holding a different view than me. I think you’re wrong, in a monstrously large way, but since I’m not taking up the argument, I can’t expect you to change your view. My only interest was to clarify why I said you were wrong in the way I did.
In any event, I assume you think I’m just as wrong as I think you are, and that’s fine. People don’t have to agree.
“I see no reason why anyone has to believe that it has been proven beyond doubt that a doubling of CO2 must produce a rise of surface temperature of around 1 C. ”
The idea that “basic physics” defines some minimum as laughable – one may as well suggest that basic physics implies that when I get my car to 100km/h I do not need any power to keep it there, based on Newtons laws of motion! Complex, heterogeneous, dynamic systems do not respond the same way as simple, homogenous, static systems – and the “laws” being applied certainly appear to come from the latter, while the climate appears to be the former. You figure it out.
Edim, you write “Jim, ‘never been justified’ is very mildly put.”
Thanks Edim. One of the things that amazes me is that there are people like Brandon around, who clearly have a deep understanding of science in general and climate science in particular, but who are prepared to take at face value, what the “experts” have written on the subject. One of the things I learned in my career, is that if you are going to quote a number, then it is essential that you go back, personally, to where that number was established, and make up your own mind whether or not that number is valid.
So many proponents of CAGW simply look at the opinions that they want to agree with, and assume they are correct. In my book, that is not operating according to the basics of science.
Brandon, Roy Spencer and Richard Lindzen are all proponents of CAGW are they? Many people in these comments understand how the no-feedback climate sensitivity figure was arrived at, what it represents and what it doesn’t, and are satisfied that it’s meaningful, myself included.
The real problem here in my opinion is that a number of commenters have faulty reasoning and are unable to correctly weigh up evidence, on a variety of subjects not just no-feedback sensitivity.
I don’t know if that’s due to bias, ignorance, or even genetic.
But I am sure it should not be possible that two separate people, armed with the same evidence, should reach polar views on matters such as whether CO2 rise is human caused or whether a doubling of CO2 causes significant warming.
Let me put this in the right place.
lolwot writes “But I am sure it should not be possible that two separate people, armed with the same evidence, should reach polar views on matters such as whether CO2 rise is human caused or whether a doubling of CO2 causes significant warming.”
Complete and utter grabage. This is a quite normal occurrence in science, when there is no observed data to provide a definitive answer. It is precisely what the situation was before Michelson and Morley conducted their classic experiment.
I am always prepared to discuss the science behind the claim that it is possible to translate a change in radiative forcing into a change in surface temperature. There is no sound way in physics to do this. The claims by the proponents of CAGW that this has been done, are based on highly dubious science and non-validated models.
The only thing we can rely on in physics is the hard measured data. Until thse data is available, there ought to be a continuing debate as to what the proper numbers are. Anyone who claims otherwise, simlpy does not understand science.
And please dont try the appeal to authority. You ought to know that mentioning Lindzen and Spencer in this sort of discussion is simply stupid. These gentlemen are well aware that skepticism is the lifeblood of science. Never forget Nullius in Verba.
Jim Cripwell, I really wish you’d stop making things up about me:
You have absolutely no way to know why I accept the value I accept, and yet, you dismissively claim I go off blind faith. I disagree with you, therefore you apparently think I don’t understand the subject. That’s pathetic.
As lolwot shows, you’re giving the implication I’m a proponent of CAGW. Perhaps that is inadvertent, but if not, you have issues. In my entire life, I have never subscribed to any CAGW views.
Thanks for making me laugh!
“The only thing we can rely on in physics is the hard measured data”
And that’s where you are going wrong.
Well not exactly, you are willing to claim CO2 warming is indistinguishable from zero even though you don’t have hard measured data to back that up. So something more fundamentally wrong is going on here.
Our hostess chooses subjects on the various sides of this issue. I believe that she is trying to get people to look at data and theories and model output and actually think about what really makes sense. One thread may be an non-issue to some, but a major issue to others. I don’t find every thread to be of the same importance, but I likely sometimes find different threads to be important than you do.
The important thing is to communicate with people who have different opinions and try to learn from each other.
But in this case the implication is that skeptics are immoral, is it not? It is hard not to be offended by this selection. What is to learn?
I would be much happier if social psychologists who do this kind of work would substitute “progressively correct” (or some such) for “moral” just about everywhere they use the word “moral.” I see two or three papers in this general vein every year at our weekly seminars, and I always have to calm myself before, during and after the seminar. There is occasionally some interesting behavioral science in this field, but the heavy normative charge spoils the fun, at least for me.
I personally favor ‘wrath’ myself. ;)
Why be offended? I don’t get it, it’s clearly a projection. I will never understand why people get so easily offended.
The funny thing about progressives is how they reject objective morality, except for when it comes to painting conservatives as immoral. It’s the flip side of their multi-cultural dogma. All cultures are equal, except the free market, Judeo-Christian west, which is evil.
Both are examples of projection as Edim notes. They wallow in security, wealth and justice the like of which the world has never known, and despise themselves for not having earned it. They have to choose between gracious acceptance of the society they have been gifted, rolling up their sleeves doing the hard work to make it better, or sit back, suck at the government teat in one form or another, and project their self loathing onto the culture they leech from.
It’s just so much easier to live off government largesse and look down on and hate those around you.
Here’s a discussion of feedbacks at Lucia’s, speaking of data, theories, and models.
From the article at Luicia’s:
“We see that the total linear feedback over the instrument period is much larger in absolute magnitude (i.e. more negative) than the total effective linear feedback calculated from the prediction runs. Put another way, in each model, the effective climate sensitivity (1.3 to 1.5 oK) calculated from the limited transient temperature change (< 0.8 oK) over the instrumental period is much smaller than that derived from the SRES A1B prediction runs, which predict a global transient climate response of between 2 and 4.3 degrees over the future period considered."
@ Jim Cripwell | April 28, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Jim, you started to talk like a dissident. Zero GLOBAL warming is the truth; if you repeat it few times – you will get into a crossfire, from both camps. If you can understand that climatic changes have nothing to do with the phony GLOBAL warming; you will become the same as Stefan the Infidel. with the undesirable truth.
The challenge is to judge the evidence provided by IPCC et al, and the suitability of their methods. And this is very far from a moral question.
I also particularly like ‘the challenge of manipulating moral intuition’. These people, seeking to abolish man, have abolished their own humanity instead.
===================
kim, these people wouldn’t know a ‘moral’ if they tripped over one in the street. Like you and others, I am intensely irritated when people use ‘morality’ as an equivalent of ‘my political agenda’.
Describing a political and communications strategy as a moral crusade is just revolting, as well as demonstrating either wilful or inadvertent ignorance of what morality means, whether in a religious or secular sense.
I am mystified by Dr Curry’s fascination with this kind of hokum, which has appeared in several of her head posts. As as PP said, collectively describing your political opponents (or those who disagree with you generally) as immoral is a low and ancient trick. It deserves no serious consideration is any sensible discussion.
johanna | April 29, 2012 at 12:38 am |
If you’re honestly wondering, look up the meaning of “Etc.”
And, for what it’s worth, ‘σκέπτομαι’ skeptomai, to think, to look about, to consider.
A real skeptic is willing to raise their head above the prescribed rote formulae they’ve been given, look about at any avenue of investigation, think and consider. There’s no handbook out there that can teach real skepticism. There isn’t an meaningful list of what is and isn’t a red herring.
Skeptics explore, and when they explore, they discover.
Who doesn’t chase red herrings is no skeptic.
And as Richard Nixon said of morality, “Who doesn’t stand for something will fall for anything.” Who knew he meant it as operating instructions?
One of the important aspects of the Debate is the resolution of the conflicts of the propositions, ie what are the implications of the solutions and how well posed is the problem and are there substantive ill posed problems in the Hadarmand sense.
This was one of the areas that the organizers of the Euler conference suggested that needed resolution,and the invited paper Hillerbrand and Ghil 2008 imparts sufficient information,that the economic and scientific problems are firmly enmeshed.
http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/tcd/PREPRINTS/RH&MG-Warming_ethics-Physica_D%2708.pdf
“So understanding the challenge in manipulating the moral intuition within individuals is particularly important to communicators and those that wish to initiate change.”
This is just another shot at “reframing,” taken from the perspective of progressive pseudo-scientists who call themselves psychologists.
“Manipulate the moral intuition….” What a truly Orwellian turn of phrase.
Marklowitz is apparently a grad student at the University of Oregon who got his masters in psychology, before joining the Environmental Studies Department. (can you say Michael Mann?)
Shariff is an Assistant professor of psychology, and apparenrtly Marklowitz’s Ph.D advisor, at Oregon.
A CAGW sycophant asst. prof. and his acolyte. Maybe they can get their own chapter ion the AR5?
Our son graduated from WSU with a degree in psychology.
Needless to say he’s back in school working on one that is useful – computer science.
Heh. I did a first year unit in psych back in 1969 as a fill in to my econ degree and while I found it be an interesting overview of the topic and especially enjoyed playing with white rats in the classical conditioning experiments, it generally lacked substance.
GaryM
Unless psychology has recently changed dramatically, the researchers are scientists and the clinicians are artists (cum science). In the case of this paper which offers advice on the use of psychological manipulation to alter behavior, I conclude that the authors are not actually scientists, rather they are (bullshit) artists.
My apologies to the authors if my assessment is incorrect.
GaryM
Unless psychology has changed dramatically, researchers are scientists and clinicians are artists (cum science). In this case, the paper offers advice on the use of psychological manipulation to alter behavior – very clinician-like, no? So the authors may actually be b***s*** artists, not scientists
My apologies if my assessment is incorrect.
Judy,
As others have already pointed out, the authors start from the premise that ‘climate change’ is real and dangerous, and proceed from there. Yes, what they say about ‘challenges’ is sensible, but is ‘climate change’ (how I have come to hate this phrase) one of them?
They say that ‘The abstract nature of climate change makes it non-intuitive and cognitively effortful to grasp’. I don’t agree with that. From my perspective it is only abstract if you accept the speculative and rubbery argument favoured by the IPCC. Otherwise it is much less abstract: there may be an issue, but the evidence suggests that any catastrophe is along way off, if it is there at all. There are things we should do for their own sake (like energy efficiency), and all societies should dearly more cogently with adaptation, foreseeing the evil consequences of droughts, floods and storms, and preparing for them now, rather than dealing with the consequences afterwards.
There’s a second built-in assumption; that ‘action’, in any quantity, is a complete solution. That’s actually the least supportable part of the chain, that rarely gets talked about.
Another…’We need to pass it, to find out what is in it’, moment.
Friends of Education
@ donaitkin | April 28, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Don, for floods you prepare in droughts; for droughts you prepare in floods. Build dams in droughts… but for all the Warmist, dam is a four letter word.
2] climate can change for better also; is it perfect climate now? Connecting climatic changes to the phony GLOBAL warmings is ”the Mother of all lies”
Their problem is huge.
How do you convince everyone the sky is falling when the sky is very clearly not falling?
How do you convince everyone that the King, or was it the Emperor, has beautiful clothes on when everyone is looking at his naked body?
How do you convince everyone that we have dangerous warming when the data has not showed warming for the past fifteen years?
How do you convince everyone we need to speed Trillions of Dollars to get rid of CO2 when the data don’t support the case that there is a problem?
How do you convince everyone to pay a huge price to get rid of CO2 when we know that CO2 makes green things grow better while using less water.
Why would we kill much life on earth by getting rid of CO2?
Hopefully, Truth will win this dangerous debate.
To say this in a more simple way.
How do you brainwash people to do something really, really stupid?
Remove God.
Tom
Impossible for the creature to remove the Creator!
Do you mean remove belief in God?
Or ignore his priorities to first care for the poor, widows and orphans?
hagendl, We have removed God, from our courts, schools, military, even some churches… we all know it. Evolutionists scoff at God. Scientists for the most part feel the same way. Based on the past 2000 years, you might argree that they are correct. The Bible says He, will surprise the world with a shout the next time & we will ‘all’ see him. It’s the world today.
oh god- how about keeping your personal views of what god means or doesn’t mean apart from government.
No deal, Rob.
“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”
Now you can deal with it. Right?
Invent God.
No need too.
True ’nuff.
Plenty of brainwashed people already to go around filling the quota of stupid. And oh look, they have their God invention to thank for that.
If the facts do not support what you want to do then simply define any objections as morally unsound as a first step to justifying coercion.
Like this?
THE PRESIDENT:
In my first term, I sang Al Green; in my second term, I’m going with Young Jeezy. (Laughter.)
MRS. OBAMA: Yeah.
THE PRESIDENT: Michelle said, yeah. (Laughter.) I sing that to her sometimes. (Laughter.)
In my first term, we ended the war in Iraq; in my second term, I will win the war on Christmas. (Laughter.) In my first term, we repealed the policy known as “don’t ask, don’t tell” — (applause) — wait, though; in my second term, we will replace it with a policy known as, it’s raining men. (Laughter.) In my first term, we passed health care reform; in my second term, I guess I’ll pass it again. (Applause.)
WHO is laughing now.
The study looks contradictory and inherently flawed. If the in depth cognitive processing required to negotiate our way through these problems leads to poor activation of moral reasoning, the authors should demonstrate first if and how their own moral reasoning hasn’t been properly “activated”.
The same applies to all other points in table 1. Psychomagically, the authors believe those don’t apply to themselves.
IMNSHO the biggest obstacle is that communicators keep trying to reduce an issue that is “complex, abstract and cognitively challenging” to “It didn’t snow last January” or “March was weird”. And those are clear evidences of “poor activation of moral reasoning” of the communicators.
ps Judith will be pleased to read: the more space there is for uncertainty the more wishful thinking we have. As if.
Yeah it has that smell to it. They will tell you that the groovy people have mo’ betta working memory or somesuch, that allows them to uniquely negotiate all these moral difficulties, by allowing them to selectively inhibit and activate the right processes, yada yada yada.
Gosh, what a surprise … somehow they left the following out of their “six challenges”:
1. The moral and scientific leaders of the AGW movement lied through their teeth to the public.
2. When they were caught and convicted by their own words, they did not acknowledge that they had done anything wrong.
3. As a result, they have never apologized for lying through their teeth to the public.
4. The great mass of climate scientists didn’t say a single word in protest at them lying through their teeth.
5. The offenders continue to be feted and invited to address conferences.
6. The offenders have not suffered any loss from their reprehensible actions.
Judith, I’m getting very tired of you trying to sell this story that the problem is somehow a communications problem. It is not. It is a problem of liars and cheaters who have forfeited the trust of the public.
As much as I hate to say it, your continued attempts to sell the bogus story that the loss of trust has nothing to do with lying and cheating is on the verge of becoming a lie and a cheat in and of itself …
w.
Willis – Judith actually wrote: “I doubt that better communication strategies will be effective in rallying action“. I believe she’s as convinced as we are, that it is not a communication issue. OTOH the “communicators” are definitely a big obstacle in making the discourse move forward, as they keep broadcasting noise on all frequencies.
Thanks, omnologos. My problem is that the whole paper says that it IS a communications issue and nothing but a communications issue. It claims that it’s all about “abstractness and cognitive complexity”, it doesn’t say one word about the loss of trust through the actions of the AGW leaders … and she says that she “found the six challenges to be very interesting and insightful.”
How is that “insightful”? People didn’t lose trust in climate scientists because of “abstractness and cognitive complexity”, that’s ivory tower bafflegab of the bovine waste product variety. The paper is either unaware of the real issues, or deliberately ignoring the real issues, or trying to deflect interest from the real issues, and either way there is nothing at all insightful about it.
w.
Willis Eschenbach, do you really think discussing problems with something precludes there from being other problems with it? Do you think tribalism stops happening because some people have been deceptive?
Of course not. Communication issues exist for everything. Knowing how to properly appeal to an audience matters whether you’re selling sound science or a scam.
Brandon, no,of course it doesn’t “preclude there from being other problems with it”, any more than having gangrene in your leg precludes you from having an infected hangnail on your thumb.
But if the doctor is just talking about the hangnail, and doesn’t say one single word about the gangrene, you need to see another doctor.
w.
Willis Eschenbach, we’re agreed on that. However, there is nothing which prevents a doctor from talking about one problem at one time, and the other problem at another. I was actually in the hospital just a couple weeks ago, and I experienced exactly that (save that it was done by two different doctors).
In that regard, the only way your criticism of Judith Curry would be true is if you argued she doesn’t talk about uncertainties in global warming (enough) on her blog. The fact she doesn’t talk about them in this particular post is meaningless.
I don’t think that’s an argument you’re wanting to make, but I could be wrong.
Brandon Shollenberger | April 29, 2012 at 12:15 am |
Of course there is nothing that prevents that … but it not might be such a wonderful plan if you die of the gangrene while your doctor is waffling on regarding the hangnail.
Uncertainties? You think I’m saying she should post more about uncertainties?? Where did I ever say or even hint that.
She posts endless articles about how what we have is a communications problem, and she posts on and on about the uncertainties … but when’s the last time she posted one about how the loss of trust is because we were lied to?
w.
Willis Eschenbach:
You’re right. I somehow got mixed up after my first response to you. I think part of why I got mixed is this:
Did Curry discuss Climategate? Yes. Did she discuss Peter Gleik? Yes. Did she discuss exaggerated claims of harm from global warming? Yes. Did she discuss Michael Mann’s dishonest behavior? Yes. Did she discuss people willfully misleading the public as “communication strategies”? Yes. Did she discuss how all of these sort of things will affect people’s level of trust? Yes.
And yet, you say she is trying “to sell the bogus story” that dishonesty has no effect on levels of trust. She’s apparently doing this by talking about how the main examples of dishonesty affect levels of trust, but not randomly bringing up lies people have told.
It makes me wonder just how many times Curry would have to talk about lies before you decided she wasn’t basically being dishonest. And how often to get you to say she was doing okay. And how about to make you say she was being good.
Personally, I’m quite happy to see her focus on more meaningful issues, including http://judithcurry.com/2012/04/26/perils-of-apocalyptic-thinking/“>ones which involve dishonesty. And the ones which involve the non-sexy type of dishonesty, intellectual dishonesty.
Quite frankly, I have no idea what you want from Curry. You didn’t suggest any material she’s failed to cover, so it sounds like you just want to her to keep rehashing old issues. If so, I think you’ll find most people are glad she doesn’t.
Who lied? And what was their lie, specifically?
Why doesn’t anyone respond to your comments? Are you persona non grata? And they were prasing you just a few months ago and calling you a luke-warmist. Fickle skeptics.
Gosh, I just love reading comments. I really learn so much.
While I cannot speak for these folks, I believe that the vocal proponents of the hockey stick have lied. For example, see Steve McIntyre’s response to Michael Mann’s book (http://climateaudit.org/2012/04/23/checking-in/). The statistics and data handling procedures used for the hockey stick are not supportable and any attempt to argue otherwise is inappropriate. Failure to concede that point has made me lose confidence in the rest of their work.
David, if you haven’t noticed any lies after the release of two tranches of climategate emails, and after watching Michael Mann lie to the US Congress, and after the lies that Phil Jones told me about why he was not responding to my FOI, and after the lies necessary to get the Jesus Paper into the IPCC, and after Mann lying about deleting emails showing how they lied to get the Jesus paper into the IPCC … well, if you are unable to detect a single lie in the whole lot, I fear you need professional help far beyond my poor power to add or detract … that is willful blindness that will not be altered by facts, explanations, or assistance.
That willful blindness is also part of the reason the AGW folks are not able to convince anyone of their ideas … your inability to recognize liars does not engender either belief or trust in your judgement …
w.
Willis, I see a lot of selective interpretation on your part. Just give me one documented “lie.”
How about Mann’s repeated assertion that Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick made errors because they had asked for an Excel spreadsheet? I’m sure you should be able to find documentation for that one since you were following the topic when it first came up.
Mann’s repeated that lie in to one of the groups investigating things after Climategate (and they accepted his answer without any attempt at verifying it). He also repeated that lie in his book, a page number for which I can provide if you’d like.
How do you know it is a lie? It seems to me it is M&M’s word against Mann’s.
David Appell:
I suppose if you don’t bother to do even the most basic research, which would be enough to show Steve McIntyre has posted the entire correspondence online, it might seem that way. Of course, one would wonder why you haven’t, especially since he posted it around the time you were following the issue.
How do you know it’s the “entire” correspondence? How do you know what transpired in other correspondence?
In other words, it’s no proof at all but still one person’s word against the others. On a subject that, frankly, has gotten to be a broken record and hence a waste of time from important issues.
Sure, glad to. Michael Mann lied to the congressional committee when he said he had never calculated the r^2 statistic and that it would be a foolish thing to do.
Phil Jones lied when he told me that he couldn’t reveal the data he was using, offering one bogus reason after another. In fact, he couldn’t reveal the data because he couldn’t find it.. His lies were so bad that the UK Parliament said the only reason that police charges weren’t brought was because the statute of limitations …
I can provide more, David. You are on a fools errand trying to prove these guys were honest scientists. They weren’t, and now the whole field is paying the price.
“David Appell, you are behaving in a pathetic and ridiculous manner.
From my view, he is behaving exactly like a lot of skeptics that frequent here….. demanding every ounce of proof before he will conceded to the obvious. Changing his mind will never happen…. because he can always ask for more yet impossible information to be brought to him…. thus safe guarding his treasured belief and never having to utter those dreaded words… “I was wrong about that”. My observation of his behavior should not be a mysterious concept for David to grasp, it’s used frequently by the warmist side, no?
David Appell:
“How do you know it’s the “entire” correspondence? How do you know what transpired in other correspondence?”
Wouldn’t it be within a “journalist’s” purview to ask Michael Mann if the corresponence is indeed complete, and if he says it’s not, to show us what’s missing?
David,
Trying to defend Michael Mann is not a particularly smart use of time and energy. You are free to pick your battleground, but in this instance it is akin to standing in the open, against a superior force, with your back to a river.
“His lies were so bad that the UK Parliament said the only reason that police charges weren’t brought was because the statute of limitations …”
I’d sure like to see that one documented.
Nick said;
“His lies were so bad that the UK Parliament said the only reason that police charges weren’t brought was because the statute of limitations …”
I’d sure like to see that one documented….
Happy to oblige
—
here is who the informationc ommosioner is here is who the information commissioner is –they report direct to the Houses of Parliament
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_Commissioner%27s_Office
This is where it says the CRU material was time barred
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_Information_requests_to_the_Climatic_Research_Unit
d
Well, ,the ICO is not the UK parliament, even if he reports to it. And AFAIK he didn’t say it was the only reason “police charges” weren’t laid – he merely said that he couldn’t investigate for that reason.
Indeed, I see from your link that, so far from the UK Parliament making that statement, they criticised (in bold type) the ICO for making it:
“We regret that the ICO made a statement to the press that went beyond that which it could substantiate and that it took over a month for the ICO properly to put the record straight.”
Ooh, right. The source you aren’t even aware of was dishonestly manipulated in an extremely obvious way. Steve McIntyre flagrantly deceived everybody in an obvious and undeniable way, and nobody ever bothered to say a word about it.
Of course. Why didn’t I think of that? Why didn’t I consider the possibility that McIntyre requested a spreadsheet containing the data he already had, which was created before the correspondence began, by a person he claims not to have contacted?
I know! Maybe McIntyre actually fabricated the entire correspondence! I mean, we just have his word against Mann’s!
Sarcasm off. David Appell, you are behaving in a pathetic and ridiculous manner. If you truly believe the things you say, I am afraid I can’t be of any help to you. When your perspectives stop being based upon what appears to be willful delusions, perhaps we’ll talk again.
See my comment here
http://judithcurry.com/2012/04/28/climate-change-and-moral-judgement/#comment-196035
that should have been posted here.
John Carpenter:
You may be right. You may be wrong. I don’t care. Pathetic behavior is pathetic behavior no matter who it comes from. Anyone who acts like he does deserves to be criticized, no matter what their beliefs may be. To me, sides are irrelevant.
Nick From your own link;
‘The ICO’s most recent letter, dated 3 March, in UEA’s view, “makes plain that there is no assumption by the ICO, prior to investigation, that UEA has breached the Act; and that no investigation has yet been completed.”[128] The ICO’s letter confirmed that the “ICO is not pursuing any investigation under section 77 of the Act. That matter is closed as far as the ICO is concerned, given the statutory time limits for action”. It added that:
The ICO acknowledges your concern about the statement made and the subsequent media and blog reports. Given that the Deputy Commissioner has already been publicly associated with the matter, any Decision Notice will be reviewed and signed off by another authorised signatory.[129]
We regret that the ICO made a statement to the press that went beyond that which it could substantiate and that it took over a month for the ICO properly to put the record straight. We recommend that the ICO develop procedures to ensure that its public comments are checked and that mechanisms exist to swiftly correct any mis-statements or misinterpretations of such statements.
92. The disclosed e-mails appear to show a culture of non-disclosure at CRU and instances where information (disclosable or otherwise) may have been deleted, to avoid disclosure. The Deputy Information Commissioner’s letter of 29 January gives a clear indication that a breach of the FOIA may have occurred but that a prosecution was time-barred.[130] As, however, UEA pointed out, no investigation has been carried out.
93. It seems to us that both sides have a point. There is prima facie evidence that CRU has breached the Freedom of Information Act 2000. It would, however, be premature, without a thorough investigation affording each party the opportunity to make representations, to conclude that UEA was in breach of the Act. In our view, it is unsatisfactory to leave the matter unresolved simply because of the operation of the six-month time limit on the initiation of prosecutions. Much of the reputation of CRU hangs on the issue. We conclude that the matter needs to be resolved conclusively—either by the Independent Climate Change Email Review or by the Information Commissioner. ‘
“
Tony, the original claim was:
“His lies were so bad that the UK Parliament said the only reason that police charges weren’t brought was because the statute of limitations …”
Since the UK parliament didn’t say that; that the only person who said anything like it was the ICO, and he didn’t say it either, and what he did say was resoundingly repudiated by the UK parliament – well I think in the context of table-thumping about lies, this is, let’s say, an unfortunate level of inaccuracy.
Nick
I agree that table thumping lies oversells it. Its a shame there wasn’t the chance to see what lies behind the curtain but that was prevented by the time delay and the three ‘Yes minister’ type enquiries.
Tonyb
Roger: That the same hockey stick shape has been calculated by completely different mathematical methods (Tingley and Huybers) provides support against claims there are substantial mathematical errors in the Mann et al analysis.
Sure David Appell, and we can point to a bunch of other papers showing the same thing. After all, appeals to popularity are great! They aren’t logical fallacies at all.
And it’s not like the article linked to suffers from any of the same criticisms, like using Mann’s criticized PC1 or anything. Oh wait.
It might be convincing for people who find a blog post more substantial than a peer reviewed paper. I don’t.
That might make sense if the paper actually addressed the criticisms in the blog post. You could perhaps argue one should trust what a “scientific paper” says over what a blog post says on any particular issue. But when the paper doesn’t even address certain issues, it doesn’t make much sense to trust it’s silence as being better than an actual discussion, even if that discussion is on a blog.
But of course, if you wouldn’t even address the blatant logical fallacy of your position, I wouldn’t expect you to get this right either.
Brandon,
You should read that post you linked to. Steve hadn’t even read the paper David is referring to. And when he did, in a later post, he discussed it in a grunbling way, but I can’t even see a major criticism.
Nick Stokes:
The ever pathetic rhetorical tricks never stop flowing out of Nick Stokes. He doesn’t like what you say about something? He’ll claim you didn’t read it. Because obviously, the only way you could disagree with him is if you were talking about things you hadn’t read.
Because hey, rude comments are how reasonable people start discussions!
Well Brandon, I’ll say it again. You linked to Steve’s post claiming that it dealt with a paper by Tingley and Huybers. But in fact he says (see Oct 24 update) that the paper he was writing about was different to the paper David had written about in Sci Am.
Sorry to have assumed you hadn’t read it – it was the best explanation I could think of.
Seems bender thought *it* was a joke and a teaser:
> It’s a joke, ok? Don’t worry. The analysis will come. This is just a teaser.
http://climateaudit.org/2009/10/23/tingley-and-huybers-2009/#comment-200077
Nick Stokes:
That makes no sense. David Appell provided this as a citation, “(Tingley and Huybers).” I picked a Tingley and Huybers paper which fit his description. If I picked the wrong article, it’s only because Appell gave a bad citation. Beyond that, Appell didn’t dispute my choice, tacitly implying it was fine.
Now you’re claiming I picked the wrong article because in other places, Appell has referred to a different article. Citations don’t work like that. Citations refer to what they refer to, not what someone refers to in a totally different location.
As for whether or not I picked the right paper, that hardly matters. I picked a paper which perfectly fit Appell’s citation. That there may be other papers which fit it is not my responsibility. That Appell may have given a bad citation is not my responsibility.
But of course, you blame me for Appell’s screw-up. Because apparently I’m not a mind-reader.
> Now you’re claiming I picked the wrong article.
No.
Try again.
David – I would be interested in reading the T&H paper if you have a link.
I’ve never been able to hear “communications problem” without thinking of “failure to communicate” in Cool Hand Luke. ht to Willis for pointing to that.
North Korea has solved the communications problem. If that is the solution I would rather it was left unsolved.
See, truth is still here.
Willis said::
1. The moral and scientific leaders of the AGW movement lied through their teeth to the public. Answer: Doubtful their actions qualify as “lies” by any stretch of the imagination, except perhaps in the case of Peter Gleick.
2. When they were caught and convicted by their own words, they did not acknowledge that they had done anything wrong. Answer: No one else needed to acknowledge anything, except for Peter Gleick, who did.
3. As a result, they have never apologized for lying through their teeth to the public. Answer: No need to apologize. Answer: Earth is warming and will very likely be in the range of 3C of troposphere warming by the time CO2 has doubled to 560 ppm.
4. The great mass of climate scientists didn’t say a single word in protest at them lying through their teeth. Answer: No need to, as their was no lying, except for Peter Gleick, and enough said enough about that unfortunate incident.
5. The offenders continue to be feted and invited to address conferences. Answer: And that is is it should be. Climate change will be an issue that will define this century, along with other effects of the Anthropocene.
6. The offenders have not suffered any loss from their reprehensible actions. Answer: And they should not. They have dedicated their lives to the study of the climate and have served honorably, except for Peter Gleick.
R. Gates,
Are you talking about the AGW ‘New Age Priests’ (NAP) here?
6. The offenders have not suffered any loss from their reprehensible actions. Answer: And they should not. They have dedicated their lives to the study of the climate and have served honorably, except for Peter Gleick.
Everyhbody that is called by a fellow ‘dedicated’ member, gets a walk?
That’s not right.
R. Gates, your response makes my case for willful blindness among AGW supporters much more forcefully than I ever could.
w.
Thanks Willis for the acerbic reminder of the elephant in the living room (systemic corruption).
Pity you don’t find find the linked magician’s paper to be “interesting and insightful”. It reveals how to vanish an elephant through psychological manipulation. The critical move is to provoke irrational activity.
More the pity is your divination of a dark heart when JC spoils the trick both with the reveal and with reasoned, emotionally ambiguous comments. Seems to me that JC is a sweetheart.
Umm. I meant JC HAS a sweet heart.
Ermm. good heart? whatever. too late to fix it now.
What is the choice the Left is offering the average student in the modern dropout factories these days? Accept being babysat by morons in the public schools where they indulge in psychobabble instead of psychocybernetic and then go work for the government? And, when the liberal Utopia implodes around everyone’s ears wait for the Red Shirts to break down the door?
I have no objection to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. To argue that we should continue to increase emissions despite having but little wit – cf. Bart and Webby – to disentangle complex energy pathways and non-linear climate responses.
What people object to is the ways and means inevitably proposed – and they will begin to look for any rationale for objecting to the progressive agenda. These are not hard to come by in the age of the internet – true or false. The lack of greenhouse gas warming for more than a decade is true enough – will persist for another decade or three – and is pretty much a slam dunk.
In the meantime – if you had $75 billion to spend – where would you spend it to best effect?
http://copenhagenconsensus.com/Projects/CC12.aspx
‘To argue that we should continue to increase emissions despite having but little wit – cf. Bart and Webby – to disentangle complex energy pathways and non-linear climate responses.’ is an argument from ignorance –
The better question is, where would you spend it if it was your own money and instead of 75 billion or 7,000 Billion what if it was–e.g., $50-150K and you’ll probably never add to that in the next 20-50 years you have to live
and even you’ve only got about $10-20K the government wants to treat you like you are are nothing but a fatted cow to be bled and distributed to others for the good of all as everone other than you sees fit?
I started with nothing and I still have plenty left? Typically the Copenhagen Consensus is talking about philanthropy.
Governments spend our money more or less well. The economic aim is to have both taxes and spending at most 25% of gdp. Australia is about 30% at the moment due to some big spending increases justified by the GFC but totally pointless in reality. The US is a little less of the cost of a fiscal imbalance. There is also an aim to manage interest rates to prevent inflationary bubbles, not to print money and to prudentially manage the banking sector. How’s that working out for you?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Australia
Police forces, law courts, armies, social welfare and other things are neccessary. So I would argue is foreign aid – which if used well can be both politically stabilising and market positive.
Why do you think you’re right and Hayek is wrong?
Simple: America IS. Maybe it is at the ‘tail’ of the curve and destined to forever be an ‘outier.’ But one thing we know for sure: all great cultures of the past are now nothing more than, Dead Societies’ Dead Gods, Bronzed Heads and Mass Manias
What on Earth are you talking about. Much as I love America, Coca Cola and Jack Daniels – America is about as wrong as it can get fiscally without total collapse. And you still have a government that is not succeeding in fiscal conservatism – and a left still insisting you can spend your way out. I don’t really mean to make a point of this – but you really seem a no government sort of guy and given what you’ve got that might not be so bad. Not that I can 100% tell from the general flag waving incoherence but it seems to be there in the if you have $1 the government wants to steal it rant. Generally ture but that’s why we have elections. But in general and in stable economies and democracies there are considerations of social capital and law and order and government is a neccessary evil.
Chief Hydrologist
You note that if americans are upset they should use the elections to get changes. I for one am so disillusioned that I don’t think there will be changes to address the fiscal issues you note with the current political structure.
A couple of days I was surveyed about the local race for the House of Representatives. The person conducting the survey tried to get me to commit to the democrat, republican or green candidate. I said I could not vote for the democrat because he was a professional politician that had never held a real job (got voted out in the last election by a tea party candidate and did not get the message). I could not vote for the republican because she was too socially conservative. The green party is so far out of touch with reality that I cannot vote for her either. So it is none of the above for me because I place myself in the middle and none of the parties reflect my goals. I also believe that the majority of Americans are in the middle and share my feelings.
Roger that: the next presidential will be decided before those who actually work for a living even get off work in California?
I know how you feel Roger. We voted in local elections yesterday and voting is compulsory in Australia. I scrawled ‘you have to be kidding’ across the ballot paper.
It’s a pity the ballot paper isn’t perforated. That would make it perfectly useful in the toilet… if a little stiff and uncomfortable. But the message would be more graphic, don’t you think?
The election between George Bush and Al Gore was decided by a single old Jewish woman in Florida. The Democrat argument that teh election should go to Gore is that the old Jewish lady she must have been confused by the layout of the ballot as evidence by the fact that otherwise she never would have voted for Buchanan.
A California Public Utilities Commissioner recently had a couple of things to say about how we CA have been spending money (to meet our RES).
CPUC commissioner Mike Florio said- “It just worries me that if we sign too many of these contracts, it’s going to make the program look bad just when it’s being successful,” The contracts are the long term Power Agreements our privately help electrical firms have put in place to meet the RES. “Commissioner Mike Florio, however, voted against the agreement. He said the possibility of steep electricity rate hikes triggered by renewable contracts keeps him awake at night”.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/11/23/MNLV1M1CET.DTL&ao=2#ixzz1elvov450
I don’t think the CopenhagenConsensus is advocating RES in California – that is entirely your problem. More making education cheaper in the developing worlds, making cheap and healthy stove tops available, condoms and anti-malarial nets, safe water and sanitation. What do you care if a) you are spending the money anyway and you should concentrates on spending it more effectively or b) it is not your money.
I’d like option A)effectively- it is some of my money.
CA has essentially bought into Kyoto. We started our leadership role in going green with a 20% RES. CAP and Trade starts later this year.
The bills are coming due for having meet (almost) our 20%RES goal.
A price for carbon was estimated for the Federal Government by the eia as part of an evaluation of the Kyoto Protocol
“Greenhouse Gases and the Kyoto Protocol” http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/kyoto/pdf/execsum.pdf
On page 18 of the Executive summary see Figure ES20. Projected Carbon Prices in the
1990+9% High and Low Economic, Growth and High and Low, Technology Sensitivity Cases, 2010
depending on the goal one wished to archive (ie reductions in CO2) and LOTS of assumptions the price varies between $121 and $243.
The price PG&E’s customers are paying to reach our goals is TBD (CARB’s estimate was $200 for going from the 20%RES to the 33%RES). I didn’t get an answer to my question of what the cost has been been (will be) to get to the 20%RES. How we allocate the costs is going to be an interesting experience.
From the – “Uncertainties in the Analysis” section………
…..”Results from any model or analysis are highly uncertain. By their nature, energy models are simplified representations of complex energy markets. The results of any analysis are highly dependent on the specific data, assumptions, behavioral characteristics, methodologies, and model structures included. In addition, many of the factors that influence the future development of energy markets are highly uncertain, including weather, political and economic disruptions, technology development, and policy initiatives………..”
kakatoa – so they can’t model energy markets, but we are to believe they can model climate?
I spend it on buying the island of Maui. A couple of degrees warmer there will hardly be noticed.
Anything left over would go to my wine budget.
How not to solve the “problem”: Have certain well-compensated, carbon-piggy, flunky, “smarty pants” sell-outs come up with ever more crafty tricks to manipulate and scam the hoi-polloi on behalf of the academic world’s CO2-spewing boss-hog betters and benefactors.
How to solve the “problem”: LEADERSHIP! LEADERSHIP FROM THE FRONT! LEADERSHIP BY EXAMPLE!
When the world’s royal families; the “greenwashed” financial elite; the tenured toadies with a carbon-trough good gig; the media lickspittels in on the deal; the Hollywood jet-set crowd with their glamorous, carbon pig-out good life; and the like retreat to tiny efficiency apartments; confine their vacations to locales only within hiking or biking distance; limit their wardrobe to a few changes of durable, utilitarian sackcloth; subsist on foods only grown with a 25-mile range of their abode; and otherwise adopt the low-carbon life they so “morally” believe is essential for others to follow, then Joe6Pak will gladly follow their example. Indeed, low-carb will then be “cool”. And, more importantly, Joe will be convinced these carbon-Cassandras are really serious. You know, Joe is always ready for mighty sacrifices when there is a real need–visit a local military cemetery, if you think otherwise. You don’t need to worry about Joe when the chips are really down.
But, please, let me clue you wannabe philosopher-kings and aspiring cull-masters in on a little secret–Joe’s BS detector has you hypocrite hustlers and your B. S., watermelon, flim-flam pitches spotted from the first word out of your mouth. And the upcoming, carbon-bacchanal in Rio?–Joe rolls his eye-balls.
Finally, why is leadership never discussed among greenshirts? Why is leadership by example “not the way it works” (per lolwot)? My two-cents:
the real “moral” crisis we are facing now-a-days is the abandonment of “leadership” by our betters as their core competency in favor of a predatory, bug-out sense of entitlement and an un-earned sense of privilege. Perhaps, leadership, from the front and by example, is viewed as a vulgar, trailer-trash sort of value–laughably unsuited to the sophisticated, two-faced shirkers and their enablers at the top. You know, the lofty ones pushing the make-a-buck, make-a-gulag climate warming/change/disruption/weirding rip-off.
True, and Forcing employers to do business within the ever-narrowing confines of acceptable conduct that is established at the whim politicians and demanding that employers police the business’s compliance with an ever-growing set of rules and performance criteria–as interpreted by government bureaucratic fiat–should henceforth be considered to be an impossible standard for employers to meet. WHENEVER YOU HEAR THAT THE ECONOMY IS GROWING UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IS A VERY BIG LIE. Economic growth does not arise from printing money to manufacture filing cabinets full of public-funded global warming junk science.
“Why is leadership by example “not the way it works” (per lolwot)?”
Because individual actions won’t work. Setting examples doesn’t work. A top down regulation of CO2 emissions is the only solution.
lolwot
In your vision of the world as it should be, how much CO2 should be emitted per person worldwide? How long would it take to get this target? At what level would CO2 be stabilized in your world if your vision was implemented?
Mr. Starkey –
I have had a go at channeling lolwot. It could have gone horribly wrong, nevertheless I cannot resist sharing with you. Please compare with lolwot’s actual answers before judging my abilities too harshly…
——————–
The desired CO2 level is hard to pin down because it is constantly changing. At some point it could even increase. Here’s why. The optimal emissions level for free market, capitalist democracies is zero, for Marxist/hostiles it is uncapped. The ideal overall CO2 stabilization level must fluctuate until it has finally produced a Marxist world-government.
——————–
Ta-da.
“In your vision of the world as it should be, how much CO2 should be emitted per person worldwide? How long would it take to get this target? At what level would CO2 be stabilized in your world if your vision was implemented?”
Ideally only as much that the CO2 rise peaks or at least slows to a crawl. I don’t know how long it would take to get to that target, nor what the final level would be, although the higher it goes the more risk there is. I think we have a fair amount of thermal inertia to deal with even after CO2 levels stabilize.
Lolwot
If in 2050 worldwide CO2 is at 450ppm vs. 480ppm vs. 430ppm does it matter? The changes in the weather conditions between these expected outcomes is what? Was the weather really all that different in 1990 than today?
Of course, a top-down regulation of CO2 ALSO will not work, given our present political situation. Developing countries, including China, are not subject to any authority with the inclination to control CO2.
So I suppose we should conclude that you favor a policy of invading and conquering China in order to impose top-down CO2 controls on them. After all, if the situation is as urgent as you say, the world is at stake. Human life on Earth will likely be extinguished, so we shouldn’t balk at killing a few million Chinese, right? And we need to get on that soon, because we’re almost out of time, right?
At the international level we would need agreement.
The loss of western control on the issue you describe is a result of the failure to reach agreement while the ball was in our court. It would have been much easier to get China and India to agree to a carbon emission reduction treaty 10 years ago. Now the ball is heading out of our court.
This path could certainly lead to war if something borks with climate just enough to scare the western populace into demanding action, but not enough to trip the likes of China which may have a much higher tolerance of risk and pain than Western populations, plus a greater incentive in the form of large fossil fuel infrastructure and resources to take that risk.
Lolwot
Please step back and reconsider some of your basic premises.
There was never “western control” of the subject issues. What there was, and still continues to be; is many independent nations acting in what they perceive as their own self interest. What countries view as their self interest can vary greatly over time and will vary based upon the goals that have been assigned by those making the decisions.
China and India (as well as almost all other countries) can easily agree to anything if there is a motive for their government to make the agreement. Developing countries are not going to agree not to develop.
Your arguments about what might have been miss the point.
My point was that you should be more careful about the ideas you urge us to accept. Just because you persuade us of one point doesn’t mean we will automatically accept every other axiom in your world. If you genuinely persuaded conservatives that only top-down control could save the world, (you could not so persuade libertarians), you would have succeeded in proving to them that we need to conquer China out of self defense (unless, I suppose, they accede to an ultimatum). Now, I’m sure that idea is as implausible to you as it is to me. But what is shows is the utter hopelessness of your position.
They labor greatly to ignore the obvious absence of evidence supporting their belief in catastrophic anthropogenic climate change.
Huh.
I never had these difficulties of moral judgment.
I’ve always known it was immoral to pee in the village well. Why don’t people who emit CO2 commercially?
I’ve always known if you spend more than you make with the intention of passing the debt on to future generations, you were a wastrel and morally repugnant. Why don’t people who use up more than their share of the carbon cycle?
I’ve always understood that throwing refuse over the fence into the neighbors’ yards was wrong and obscene. How does anyone not get this?
The straightforward and ancient moral understanding of simple hygiene in a shared space.. how hard is that to apprehend?
It’s not abstract, and it’s not very complex except for those who — apparently intentionally — seek to fog up the situation.
I have no problem blaming the culprits, however ‘unintentional’ they insist they are, and yet blame isn’t really a strong component of any moral system I use, compared to responsibility for consequences, obligation to consider one’s actions and their outcomes, duty of care to family, all of which are clear and obvious cases.
I’ve never considered myself guiltless in what emissions I’m responsible for, and can’t see self-defensiveness as productive or warranted, or anything but liable to make those who act so seem absurd.
Which leaves for me:
4.Uncertainty breeds wishful thinking: The lack of definitive prognoses results in unreasonable optimism
5.Moral tribalism: The politicization of climate change fosters ideological polarization
I can see #4, but this is a Gordion Knot of no special resiliency. CO2 level is up. We drive CO2 level emissions and constrain the mechanisms that lower CO2 level. There’s no reason for optimism while we move CO2 levels to heights not seen in 15 million years and the uncertainty that accompanies that divergence from everything our species has ever known in the condition of the biosphere.
And #5? For shame. Putting ideology — especially the novel and short-lived ideologies of the late (and already passed) 20th century — ahead of future generations.
Do you feel your tribe becoming the focus of an attack for its utter moral depravity? Well, maybe your tribe should sit in a corner and think about what it’s done until it can apologize for peeing in the well and promise not to do it again.
Scorecard:
The liberal Utopianism of the Left–> Misery, poverty and death in the hundreds of millions.
Global warming–> mostly good for humanity especially when compard to the alternative.
Oh. I see Michael Larkin’s point now.
That Wagathon, he sure has some imagination!
“people who use up more than their share of the carbon cycle?”
How much is that exactly? And who decided?
Do you get a credit if you are taking someone to the hospital? Does Obama get lots of credits for campaigning and vacationing with Air Force One? Who does the accounting on this? Do you get audited? Is there an appeal process?
If I go over my share limit, is it a big sin or a little one? Are all sins the same? Can I get forgiveness if I do a proper penance?
You can, in principle, determine everyone’s share of the carbon cycle: determine natural sources and sinks, and decide on a safe level of atmospheric and oceanic carbon. Take that number [gigatons of carbon per year] and divide it by the Earth’s human population. That’s how much carbon you can emit every year. Otherwise, you’d have to make other arrangements.
I know! I know! cap and trade administrated by Goldmann Sachs.
I’ll answer you, Dave.
I am with Appell on this one. Just calculate the fair share of carbon usage, which is probably going to be around that which is currently used by a goatherder in Ethiopia. If you exceed that amount, you get your hand chopped off.
I can’t believe there is a ‘Reply’ left on this indent: let me be the first to say you are an insensitive lout and should be penalized 150 carbon credits. Who shall vote with me?
A more reasonable answer is that you buy credits from someone.
The principle is that those who damage property should pay for that damage. Is that really so controversial?
Confiscation of a man’s property by classifying CO2 as a poison is proof of liberal fascism.
You first have to prove I damaged someone’s property before I pay for it. You guys keep forgetting that requirement.
In practice the carbon fluxes are not known to more than 20% (AR4) accuracy – an error figure that is an order of magnitude greater than anthro. emissions.
They also vary with and lag temperature – so who’s to know. To measure individual emissions we would have to chip everyone – much more powerful than a bar code tattooed on your forehead. Although I would probably start looking for a hack on the pirate internet.
What we have is a confrontation between moral turpitude (moi) and moral unctuousness (nominations open). I have never pissed in a well but I do have both a 4L Ford and a SUV. I live in the outback for God’s sake. Will the Aussie carbon tax change that? Well look we already tax fuel at $0.38/L. So they reduce the ‘fuel excise’ and impose another tax. Yeah – so what. And the fact remains that the question is not whether the green/socialist government will survive but how big they will lose.
Is a carbon tax at all politically pragmatic or practical? In a cooling world for which there is much greater certainty than that peak oil is goning to be more of a problem than $100 a barrel oil. Hell I can convert both my cars to LNG (indeed I am in the process) and come out more than even at $100 a barrel.
I remain implacably opposed to carbon taxes – as is most of the world. Let’s shut up and vote on it. It is the production function. Seriously – you would have to have $100/tonne taxes in Australia to do anything at all. At which stage the economy has long since collapsed. Thought not. You want to take a moral gander of what that would do to development? The interim phase is subsidising supercritical coal plants as CDM in China and India. If you imagine that America can do it better – or indeed that it can be done well by anyone – you’ve got rocks in your head.
One alternative is to make innovation cheaper by tax breaks and dollar for dollar investments. One way I am very keen on is a global energy prize. How to leverage a billion dollars. Clever rather than stupid.
Chief,
I would have won that prize hands down…It is what pushed me to understand areas that were totally lacking in mechanics. Needing to produce proto-types when the science was missing to actually understand the whole process. How and why the conclusions were made in the past through what technology and science understanding was available back then. This pushed new boundaries of simple measuring and simple calculations that scientists NEVER even considered. If they did, the current LAWS and theories would be much different.
Not pricing carbon has a cost, too, as does not halting global warming.
David Appell said:
“Not pricing carbon has a cost, too, as does not halting global warming.”
So what? If the cost of pricing CO2-e emissions is greater than the benefits of doing so, why do it?
Joe – less theory more working systems.
If the cost of pricing CO2-e emissions is greater than the benefits of doing so, why do it?
Because the vast majority of climate scientists disagree with you, and I find their work to be much more convincing.
And even if the benefits were less than the cost, people who use a product should pay for the damage it does to the property of others.
David,
Whatever gave you the idea that technological innovation – done very badly and very poorly funded – was not the core means of decarbonisation.
There are dozens of others as well some of which I talk about in terms of Copenhagen Consensus priorities. The carbon pricing meme is BS – hasn’t succeeded after decades – can’t and shouldn’t proceed in my opinion – and is going backwards.
The only tangible way forward is pragmatic – http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2011/07/climate_pragmatism_innovation.shtml
The world is cooling for a decade or three more because we are in a cool Pacific decadal mode. Mark that well because this is where ‘the science’ currently is. There is no wishy washy may or maybe’s, not any doubt at all, no resiling, no chance of a backdown, no mistaking or quibbling.
If you think that this will not have repercussions for the politics of climate change – you have rocks in your head. If you think there is any chance in a generation to regain ground lost in a backlash against green/red overreach – again you have rocks in your head.
Cheers
Chief Hydrologist said:
“The world is cooling for a decade or three more because we are in a cool Pacific decadal mode.”
_______
By “world” you mean troposphere of course, as there is no sign of “cooling” in the worlds largest energy reservoir of the ocean…so I guess you would mean that reservoir that is less than 1/1000th of the planet’s solar energy reservoir which is the troposphere…and of course, even suggesting that we’ll get a “decade or three” of cooling here…quiet sun, cool PDO, or not is quite a stretch. I guess you can always hope for a series of really large volcanoes to make your prediction come true…
Gatesy,
I am sure we have had this dance before. Any minor ocean warming this century did not happen from greenhouse gases in a non-warming atmosphere. Where this happened was in the SW changes evident in CERES data. And no – I mean the coupled ocean/atmosphere system as the cool Pacific decadal mode and the frequency and intensity of La Nina peaks.
I’m not disputing that there was some minor ocean warming – http://s1114.photobucket.com/albums/k538/Chief_Hydrologist/?action=view¤t=vonSchuckmann-OHC.gif
Just that it was not a increase in donwelling IR – impossible in a non warming atmosphere – but from SW changes.
http://s1114.photobucket.com/albums/k538/Chief_Hydrologist/?action=view¤t=CERES-BAMS-2008-with-trend-lines1.gif
There are a couple of relevant studies referred to here to do with climate shifts.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/07/warminginterrupted-much-ado-about-natural-variability/ – I like to link realclimate to space cadets.
‘This suggests that the climate system may well have shifted again, with a consequent break in the global mean temperature trend from the post 1976/77 warming to a new period (indeterminate length) of roughly constant global mean temperature.’ Swanson et al 2009
There is an initialised model study here that suggests 10 years of subdued temperature rise – http://www.pnas.org/content/107/5/1833.full
There are a couple of studies from Latiff and colleags of course suggesting the same thing.
It is a drag this natural variability hey?
Hell – edited and then posted the old version.
Gatesy,
I am sure we have had this dance before. Any minor ocean warming this century did not happen from greenhouse gases in a non-warming atmosphere. Where this happened was in the SW changes evident in CERES data. And no – I mean the coupled ocean/atmosphere system as the cool Pacific decadal mode and the frequency and intensity of La Nina peaks.
I’m not disputing that there was some minor ocean warming – http://s1114.photobucket.com/albums/k538/Chief_Hydrologist/?action=view¤t=vonSchuckmann-OHC.gif
Just that it was not an increase in downwelling IR – impossible in a non warming atmosphere – but from SW changes.
http://s1114.photobucket.com/albums/k538/Chief_Hydrologist/?action=view¤t=CERES-BAMS-2008-with-trend-lines1.gif
There are a couple of relevant studies referred to here to do with climate shifts.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/07/warminginterrupted-much-ado-about-natural-variability/ – I like to link realclimate to space cadets.
‘This suggests that the climate system may well have shifted again, with a consequent break in the global mean temperature trend from the post 1976/77 warming to a new period (indeterminate length) of roughly constant global mean temperature.’ Swanson et al 2009
There is an initialised model study here that suggests 10 years of subdued temperature rise – http://www.pnas.org/content/107/5/1833.full
There are a couple of studies from Latif and colleagues’ of course suggesting the same thing.
It is a drag this natural variability hey?
Chief Hydrologist:
Thanks for your excellent response. I think however, you might be missing my point about the effects of greenhouse gases on ocean-atmosphere energy exchange. Certainly, we both agree that tropospheric temperatures were flat over the past decade, but this is not the issue. They did not decline either, but remained flat at the highest levels we’ve seen on instrument record. This is critical to my point about heat flux out of the ocean. The temperature of the troposphere acts as a control valve to the rate of heat flowing from ocean to atmosphere, affecting the thermal gradient across the ocean skin layer. With temperatures being flat over the past decade, this “control valve” didn’t open more or close, but simply kept approximately the same rate of ocean heat content accumulation averaged over the past decade. The ocean heat content, especially down to 1500 or 2000 meters clearly shows the accumulation continued. The control valve was roughly kept at the same level over the decade because temperatures in the atmosphere were flat. Had the atmosphere cooled greatly over the decade, the control valve would have opened up, and oceans would have released more heat. When the atmosphere warms, the control valve closes down, releasing less heat from ocean to atmosphere. This is of course another perfect example of a negative feedback process that helps to regulate the the overall balance of energy between ocean and atmosphere. During periods of intense atmospheric warming, such as we might get from continued increase in greenhouse gases, the control valve closes down greatly and ensures that the oceans help buffer the atmosphere from even an even greater amount of warming. During periods of intense atmospheric cooling, the control valve opens up, releasing more heat so as to ensure that the atmosphere doesn’t get so cold as to send the planet into another snowball Earth episode. In this way, this thermal gradient “control valve” effect at the ocean skin layer serves as a buffering mechanism, releasing or storing heat in the planet’s energy reservoir as needed.
R Gates said;
‘Certainly, we both agree that tropospheric temperatures were flat over the past decade, but this is not the issue. They did not decline either, but remained flat at the highest levels we’ve seen on instrument record.’
I’m not convinced by your (presumably trade marked) ‘control valve’ mechanism, nor that we have anything remotely approaching a good understanding of the ocean temperatures to 2000m (and we have nothing to compare them with to put them in a historical context)
Could not the plateauing suggest that we have reached the approx high point of the co2 absorption rate and if the logarithmic scale is correct there is nothing very much more to come on the way to a doubling of co2?.
tonyb
R Gates
Just found this on the Co2 saturation rate and logarithmic curve, which also has a useful sceptic vs believers Q and A.
http://joannenova.com.au/2010/02/4-carbon-dioxide-is-already-absorbing-almost-all-it-can/
tonyb
climatereason, the ocean is maintaining its record heat contents only because the atmosphere is staying warm. The atmosphere is staying warm at record levels only because there is more CO2 now to prevent it cooling as it would have in the past (e.g. when it reached similar levels in 1998 and dropped below that in the next year).
I prefer to think of the ocean/atmosphere as a coupled system which works pretty much as you describe but is perhaps understod in terms of power flux. SW into the ocean and net IR, latent and convection up. The downwelling IR is the determinant of net power fluxes from the ocean and thus if the atmosphere warms the ocean warms and vice versa. A coupled system in which the concept of ocean buffering – other than chemically – is misleading.
You can see that if the atmosphere does not warm then the ocean can’t warm. It is as simple as that. So what caused the ocean warming in the von Schuckmann graph. It is the Achilles heel of AGW – that of secular changes in cloud cover. This is seen in the CERES data and many other places.
In the energetically important marine straocumulos regions – low level stratocumulos cloud cover is negatively correlated with sea surface temperature. SST is decadally variable with the PDO and ENSO especially. So energy accumulates in warm Pacific decadal modes and energy is reflected more in cool modes.
Thus you may ignore much of the available sceince – but it is as simple as that. As the cool Pacific decadal mode we are in intensifies the world will cool for a decade or three more.
Tony,
From that chart you shared related to the logarithmic effect of CO2, you’d never be able to extrapolate the basic fact that from the bottom of a the last glacial period to the top of the Holocene, we had about a 10C move in temperatures, as CO2 went from 180 to 280 ppm or so. Milankovitch cycles can’t explain this move as the change in solar insolation in and of itself just isn’t enough. The additional forcing from CO2, as a positive feedback response triggered by Milankovitch changes can explain this kind of move. Now, going from 280 to 560 ppm, we may only get an additional 3C move, and this would be more in line with the logarithmic effect of CO2 saturation. This assumes of course, that there aren’t some other positive feedbacks that might be triggered by CO2 rising to these levels (such as the release of methane from the melting of permafrost and ocean shelf and floor methane clathrates.
“we had about a 10C move in temperatures, as CO2 went from 180 to 280 ppm or so”
Well that’s vostok or Greenland i don’t know which but from what I’ve seen the global increase was only about half of that?
your point still stands though. 5C warming is more than the orbital forcing can explain. Without some massive an unknown forcing there must be some positive feedback involved.
stan | April 28, 2012 at 8:29 pm |
How much is that exactly? And who decided?
I don’t need to know how much, so long as who decides is the democratic choice of every participant in the open and undistorted fair market, but the law of supply and demand.
Let those with a birthright in the carbon cycle — all of us, per capita — profit from its sale.
It’s not a matter of sin if you pay for what you use; it transforms from free riding theft by the action of market capitalism.
Bart and David,
One of the problems we have out here in CA is the bills are coming due for meeting our RES target. We are not following the approach you are recommending Bart. Now we get to figure out who pays their fair/equitable share of the costs. The information below is from “PG&E’s Rate Design Window 2012 Application”
Page 2-7 Table 2-4 PG&E cumulative Impacts of the 33% RPS on NON-CARE residential rates- http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/published/proceedings/A1202020.htm
“Year- 2015
RPS Premium (1000s) = $1,159,000.
Residential Share (1000s)= 486,000
Cumulative Class Average Rate Increase= $.0.015
Cumulative Tier 3/4 Rate Increase= $0.048″
“Line 10 (page 1-14) “Absent any change in the residential rate design methodology, the differential between Tier 2 and Tier 4 rates, which was 18.9 centers per kWh in Jan 2012 (33.5 vs 14.6 cents per kWh), is forecasted to increase by 65 percent to 31.1 cents in 2022 (50.5 vs 19.4 kWh). The gap is already far in excess of what is equitable on a cost of service basis, and the failure to address this problem will rapidity worsen the situation.”
That RPS Premium is a VERY BIG number
You think in terms of sceptics peeing in the well. If we must use the well analogy, they see you as wanting to stop people using the well because you only imagine they are peeing in it.
One side is right, and the other wrong, and I for one can’t say for sure which, even though I lean towards scepticism. Regardless, I can accept that at least some (a majority?) on both sides hold their opinions sincerely, based on their interpretation of the evidence. Both sides can be acting ethically even though one of them must be wrong. Good people can differ.
One way to deal with conflicts like this is to attempt coercion. For a long time, it has been assymetric warfare. Governments, the scientific establishment, various organisations, and above all the mass media, have been on the side of the alarmists, vilifying and attempting to marginalise the sceptics.
Is that fair and just? I suppose an argument can be made that it is, provided they are right. If the shoe had been on the other foot, I have no doubt that sceptics would have been applying the same advantage. However: the coercion hasn’t worked. It’s not just that sceptics have successfully resisted; it’s that people do in fact increasingly rely on energy sources that produce CO2, and alternatives are limited in their effectiveness.
As far as I can see the only one that currently isn’t, is nuclear power, but that is resisted. If it weren’t, and we went all out for nuclear, then I might think: well, I still think alarmists are wrong, but it’s a win-win situation if we, and more importantly developing nations, get access to the power they need.
So what to do? If the alarmists think they are right in the face of increasing scepticism, will changing the coercive spin work, as the authors of the paper Judith has posted hope? I don’t think so, because the paper is predicated on the assumption that the alarmists are right to be alarmed. It’s just trying to come up with a subtler way of twisting sceptical arms, hoping they won’t notice the continued attempts at psychological manipulation. Absolutely zero chance of that.
One way to resolve it might be to have actual debate, with the full assent of the mass media, in which both sides get to put their case without any attempt to load the dice. I doubt the the alarmists would ever countenance this, as it would risk losing their influence on the messaging system.
Hence I suspect we’re just going to have to wait until at some point nature pronounces the verdict. It will only be then that we will know for sure who’s right and who’s wrong. The issue of who is to blame, whichever side wins, is irrelevant. Many (most?) people, whatever their view, won’t be to blame, because they were sincerely acting in accord with their understanding.
Michael Larkin | April 28, 2012 at 10:07 pm |
The ‘only imagine’ argument is novel, and I thank you for it. Something to think about.
Can I prove the well is real? I believe so, to any objective standard.
Can I prove the emission is real? Well, that’s pretty much as certain.
Is the emission unnatural? As commercial activity, it is as much in the definition of artificial as one can imagine. Natural breathing, naturally, is not what I mean by commercial, or lucrative.
Is it harmful? Well, I don’t need to prove harm, do I? No one in an ancient village proved the clod peeing in the well did harm before stoning him or putting him in stocks or boiling him alive.
I mean, I _can_ demonstrate harm, but wouldn’t that be for the tort?
I think you miss the point. The well is real, and sure enough, people are putting something in it. But sceptics would say it isn’t urine and it isn’t causing any harm. It may even on balance be doing good.
My greatest scepticism is about the magnitude/direction of feedbacks, the adequacy of the climate models, and the failure of the predictions. And yes, I haven’t been impressed by the behaviour of certain key players, but that isn’t decisive however distasteful.
I’m sincere, I have no reason to believe you aren’t too, and so it’s pointless trying to blame people. All I want to know is what the truth is, and so far have been unconvinced by the orthodoxy. No amount of cod psychology is going to have an effect.
Michael Larkin | April 29, 2012 at 1:09 am |
I get the point. I’ve been to some of the Idsos’ propaganda sites. I understand the contention by boosters that whatever they pour into the well they have an absolute right to, and it’s good for us.
But then, when has trespass into the common wellspring ever been accepted by however well-meaning a member of the community, so long as so many found the practice objectionable?
Remember, it’s the only well. No one has the choice to opt out of what’s being done to the well by these well-meaning members. They haven’t been consulted by the well-meaning members for their permission, or offered to pay (and after all, I’m only asking they pay based on the precepts of fair market supply and demand) before committing this trespass.
When has that ever been okay?
When has that ever been anything but a form of usurpation, theft, or adulteration?
Simply, what is being asked is to overthrow the basic principles of common trespass and common decency, as a special case, to avoid simply paying for the use of the common resource.
The resource is the carbon cycle. However lagged or buffered or sequestered by the intermediate processes, that comes down to geology, and geology does not succumb to legal argument. It absorbs CO2 at one rate only. That makes it a scarce resource due physical limit.
That makes the resource rivalrous, as what uptake is used by one emitter no other emitter in this millennium will be able to also use.
Since the world has come to the point where — within tolerances so close as apply to any lucrative dealing — we can account for and charge a fee for the use of the vast majority of the CO2E inventory of any nation, the resource also is excludable.
If excludable and rivalrous, it is under capitalism immoral to fail to price the good and maintain a fair and stable market for it, returning the fees set by Supply and Demand to the owners by birthright of the resource — every citizen per capita.
If you believe you can produce a higher, more reasonable moral system for addressing the present inequities, by all means propose it. BAU is just not it, nor is cap and trade alone, nor is carbon tax, nor is simple subsidy of technology. Those last three ‘solutions’ do not address fully the inversion of the economic rewards in the system, and will fail; the fourth actively increases inequity and spirals us deeper into the mire of subsidy and imbalance with every business cycle, and will ruin us in the end if it continues.. whether there is harm from pee in the well or not.
Bart,
No disrespect, but I find your prose incoherent, and so haven’t anything to say in reply. Maybe you’re tired?
Likelier I’m just that incoherent.
Predictions will generally fail; climate has significant nonlinearity on sub-decadal spans, and is fairly nonlinear on decadal spans, and when you get much longer than human lifespans, people get pretty bad at record-keeping.
Feedbacks are a Gordion Knot. They represent the results of perturbations or external forcings, so in and of themselves mean the system is occupying a new and different level. As a general principal, the increase in feedbacks — in complexity — will involve a similarly complex (extreme or unknown) set of transitions to return the system to stability.
That’s just plain old mathematics. What it means specifically? See the part above about predicitons; no one ought have very good ones, again mathematically.
Orthodoxy won’t go very far, if you’re trying to decoct orthodoxy from out of the maelstrom of things like blogs and ‘debates’ or even the IPCC reports.
Orthodoxy has a lag all its own in recognizing what it really had been — with its attendant failings — some generation later.
Also, I’m not out to convince you. There’s data, and there’s method. So far as I can tell, the weight of the data and method supports hypotheses that frame the problem space in terms of “BAU is likely to be among the most expensive options.”
The solution to getting to better options? That’s for policy, not science.
The answer, of course, is that we do not believe that emitting CO2 is the equivalent of “peeing in the well.” We simply do not believe that there is any harm to emitting CO2 that is not better dealt with by allowing our economy to grow and spending money later to adapt to any climate change that turns out to happen.
qbeamus | April 30, 2012 at 4:57 pm |
You’re confusing the concept of tort with trespass. The trespassed-against never need prove harm, except to collect on damages. They only need show a right — and I think we all have a right to breath — and that the right is encumbered without consent or rightly determined compensation by due process.
Also, you make an assumption that burning fossil reserves is good for the economy; all evidence is against you there. Efficient plastic, industrial chemical, pharmaceutical and nitrogen fertilizer resources are absolute requirements for a healthy economy, and no attack on America’s prosperity is greater than the act of burning this precious treasure.
Bart,
It isn’t immoral to pee in the village well. Unsanitary maybe, but immoral?
If instead of spending more money than I earn I save a portion of it for future use, does someone (government) have a right to claim some of it for those who haven’t?
BTW – what is my share of carbon?
timg56 | April 30, 2012 at 5:11 pm |
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/trespass
Noun 1. trespass – a wrongful interference with the possession of property (personal property as well as realty), or the action instituted to recover damages
civil wrong, tort – (law) any wrongdoing for which an action for damages may be brought
continuing trespass – trespass that is not transient or intermittent but continues as long as the offending object remains; “dumping his garbage on my land was a case of continuing trespass”
trespass de bonis asportatis – an action brought to recover damages from a person who has taken goods or property from its rightful owner
trespass on the case – an action brought to recover damages from a person whose actions have resulted indirectly in injury or loss; “a person struck by a log as it was thrown onto a road could maintain trespass against the thrower but one who was hurt by stumbling over it could maintain and action on the case.”
Immoral to trespass by peeing in the well? Yes. The concept of trespass is one of the most ancient and universal human moral values. Not recognizing trespass as immoral is, frankly, astonishing.
As to your question about savings, you appear to be attempting to entangle two different issues, for no reason I can fathom. Perhaps if you expand on your meaning?
As for your share of the carbon cycle, as someone who breathes as an inherent undiminished privatized common resource, it would be the same as anyone else’s; equal per capita. The details of that? That’d be up to your nation to decide, one hopes democratically.
Your personal share of carbon? I have no idea. How much carbon have you paid for, earned or inherited?
What?? Was the atmosphere privatised while I’ve been away on my fishing trip? Dang, I must try and catch up over the weekend.
BaitedBreath | May 3, 2012 at 1:57 am |
So far as I know, it’s only been privatized in this way in British Columbia, and unless your fishing trip were four years long, then not while you were away, no.
See the implications of the form of the verb “would be” in the conditional form of a clause, or ask your local grammarian.
The air has been privatised in British Columbia? So people have share certificates or suchlike? I’m impressed but confused.
As regards elsewhere, you basic writing mistake was leaving out “IF air was privatised” ( -> then your share “would be”). (Assuming you wanted to be clear that, that is, rather than score a point). But yes, I’m sure your local grammarian would be happy to help.
I believe they just get money.
As to clarity, I love clarity. I never miss an opportunity to .. oh, wait, that’s pie I’m thinking of.
Oh, and see what your grammarian thinks of ending sentences with prepositions.
> The air has been privatized in British Columbia? So people have share certificates or suchlike?
> Bart R : I believe they just get money.
Who gets money? What money? Parcels of ownership rights in the air are traded like houses or shares or TV sets? Seems impossible to police. How does the whole thing work exactly ?
Dude, seriously, never heard of Google?
http://www.fin.gov.bc.ca/tbs/tp/climate/carbon_tax.htm
Why ask me, when you can ask them?
Dude, seriously, not know the difference between privatisation and taxation? Never used google?
Even The Dude knows that taxation doesn’t lower the taxes you pay, while privatization does.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2009/06/dude.html is about a cap-and-trade tax because the permitting system raises revenue for the use of the government (and is usually pretty easy to defraud due abuse of free permits, and has other problems).
The one way, you get to decide as an individual who gets the money, that’s privatization. The other way, the government takes your money and decides where it goes — to a system that encourages burning carbon while suppressing alternatives — that’s taxation.
So, lower taxes for everyone because people pay for emitting carbon, that’s privatization.
Higher taxes for everyone except the fossil fuel industry because the government subsidizes carbon based fuels? That’s taxation.
Do you see the difference?
So that’s resounding No then, dude, you clearly don’t know the difference between taxation and privatization.
The problem seems to be that while, fair enough, you do seem to have some sort of idea of what taxation is, you quite obviously have absolutely no idea at all what privatization is. So let me help – it means private ownership (the “private” in there gives it away). It thus has nothing at all to do with taxation, which is by definition a state thing.
You claimed that air had been privatized in British Columbia, which intrigued me. But clearly hasn’t, it is still under state control.
Your rather garbled discussion on the relative virtues of a different taxes – while perhaps not without merit – are thus beside the point.
( I see what you’re getting at though, a CO2 tax is a Georgist notion, close relative of the Land Tax. But the aside about ‘subsidies’ for fossil fuel seems to be in the same failure-to-grasp-basic-concept category, as your ‘privatized’ air).
BaitedBreath | May 6, 2012 at 6:37 am |
I’m the first to say British Columbia hasn’t gone far enough. But it’s not like I’m all about telling people how to do things that are their own business. That would be like me saying they should spend their money the way I tell them, by for instance taking money out of their pockets and keeping it for myself. Which is the opposite of what the British Columbia Revenue Neutral Carbon Tax Act does.
You did look it up, right? Read it? Did the math?
That’s one billion dollars a year spread around a population the size of South Carolina of their own money _not_ being sucked into the government’s pockets under state control.
True, there is state control of the price level, which is lamentable. If they did it my way, Supply and Demand would set the level of the carbon price, and _all_ of that would flow into the pockets of the people per capita, until the maximum returns were reached.
I am absolutely _not_ subscribing to the designs of Henry George in this matter: land has long been surrendered to governments worldwide in one way or another; no one has ever signed over their right to breath yet. While in some places, Georgism holds water as an argument, it isn’t a universally applicable precept. So, while it may have a certain parallelism, and the Georgist argument applies for the carbon cycle in ways that perhaps it does not for land in some cases, it’s not really a case that needs to be made. All we need to know who to direct the funds generated from use of the privatized carbon cycle to is that the people have agreed to that means by some valid form of consent, or that it goes to all per capita until such agreement is reached.
My proposals are certainly far less a Market distortion than current deadweight loss practices that people insist on some flimsy loophole or excuse aren’t really subsidies.. and yet, which still have the same distortionate impact as subsidies. How do you not grasp that?
Bart
Your lengthy waxing is quite beside your own point here – which was your startling claim that AIR HAD BEEN PRIVATIZED in British Columbia. For which you (unsurpsiongly) cannot provide any evidence.
Instead, you go on and on about this carbon TAX. Whatever its merits, you may as well be talking about the price of tea in China as far as relevance to PRIVATIZED AIR is is concerned.
So, your overall approach was to make a silly albeit interesting claim, and then use it to push a quite different argument. Weird, dude.
Right off the bat I disagree with these learned ethicists when they state that “…climate change is the direct result of intentional, goal-directed behavior…” That is pure propaganda since there is absolutely no scientific basis for it. But then again, they are not scientists. Taking this as a premise they try to work out why people who know it still don’t want to assume moral responsibility for climate change: “It is too hard for me to understand, or it is not my fault, or there was no immoral intention, or if anthropogenic I did not do it, or I don’t like the politics, or who cares for these types that I don’t even know.” These of cause are all hypotheticals that are supposed to be morally offensive to a true believer in global warming. Since they have noticed that despite that intentional global warming people still have these perverse reasons for not assuming moral responsibility they bring up a slew of suggestions about how to turn them into true believers. They call these suggestions “…strategies that communicators can use to bolster recognition of climate change as a moral imperative.” There are six of them, starting with “Use existing moral values.” If there ever was a perversion of moral values, propagandizing for action against a non-existent climate Armageddon is it. They are taking a leaf out of the Moonies playbook who in their heyday converted thousands to their cult. Even had a mass marriage ceremony for members who they had decided should all marry on the same day. And now we have Nature Climate Change printing this non-scientific nonsense about responsibility for a non-existent future catastrophe but refusing to print my article that was about climate science.
Oh? “You mean global warming is caused mainly by human CO2 emissions,” isn’t the Null Hypothesis? ;)
I knew from the first sentence you had a brain.
Most people have sensitive constitutions. The climate change argument serves as a soft landing to the more concrete fossil fuel crisis that the world faces.
Climate change remains abstract. People can move away from low-lying regions. They can move away from heat. We can take mitigation steps to stem the tide of warming. We can work with other nations to come up with solutions. This seems palatable to most people. No one really sees climate change as an existential threat.
Fossil fuel depletion is concrete. We no longer have cheap sources of energy to drive our economy. We may need to get supplies from nations that have extra reserves, perhaps even invade to gain access. We no longer can work with other countries to solve the problem, as they have something we want, or vice-versa. We don’t have alternatives to liquid hydrocarbon fuel. We can’t move away from the threat, the farther we move the more energy is required. The threat is existential as long as we don’t have substitutability.
People respond to these threats differently. Oil depletion is a threat of unfulfilled need and want. Climate change is a threat of inconvenience with the slight possibility of catastrophic consequences.
Yet they have the same mitigating strategy. Switch to something other than fossil fuels. Combining the two threats makes this a no-brainer as the mitigation is substitutable.
With probability 0.99, we know that oil depletion is a problem. Say that with probability 0.2, we estimate that climate change will be a problem. The probability that either will be a problem is still 0.992, since that is how you add according to the rules of probability.
The administration had toyed with the idea of using climate change as the soft landing to move off of fossil fuels, but as Curry has pointed out, the strategy has slowly shifted to talk of sustainability, which is more in the direction of admitting to fossil fuel depletion as the vital concern.
That is the choice that many governments are making. They kill two birds with one stone by exercising a judgement toward a sustainability path.
cheers
You seem blind to the fact that you have three propositions here –i.e., (1) we’re running out of fossil fuel, (2) which is a problem we must solve now, and (3) we cannot have a free society established on the principle of individual liberty and economic freedom if we are to solve the problem.
to solve the problem.
WHT, you say “They can move away from heat.”
But what evidence is there that people want to move away from heat? Population density increases from polar regios to tropics.
• Most people choose to go to warmer regions to take their annual vacation.
• The general migration trend is from the colder to warmer parts.
• Global warming is projected to occur mainly in higer latitudes, in winter and at night. There is expected to be little change in the temperatures in lower latitudes, in summer and in the day time. Surely this is good. It increases growing seasons.
• Also more precipitation and more VO2 (fertiliser) is good for life and for food.
So, what is so bad a bout a little warming?
Your arguments sound good, but really are just hand-waving. More careful analysis shows there is already evidence that warming is causing significant losses for certain crops:
“Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming,” David B Lobell and Christopher B Field, Environ. Res. Lett. 2 (2007) 014002 (7pp)
http://www.mendeley.com/research/global-scale-climate-crop-yield-relationships-and-the-impacts-of-recent-warming/
So in that article, they say yields have gone up, but global warming has caused yields to go up less than otherwise? I guess this is akin to Obama’s jobs saved or created as the unemployment rate went up and up. I seriously doubt these guys can actually prove their hypothesis. I’m, uh, skeptical.
Do you suppose there are other factors besides temperature that might be affecting yields? Of course there are. Their analysis attempts to regress out the temperature dependence.
I’m sure they have a handle on all the factors affecting yield. Sure they do.
You haven’t even tried to read the paper, have you? You simply want to dismiss it out-of-hand.
In fact, the third page of their paper contains this: “While these empirical/statistical models do not attempt to capture details of plant physiology or crop management, they do capture the net effect of the entire range of processes by which climate affects yields, including the effects of poorly modelled processes (e.g. pest dynamics). In addition, these empirical/statistical models enable a quantitative evaluation of
uncertainties [13].”
David,
That’s about the stupidest production function estimation I have ever seen. Do you suppose that capital and labor and (many) other inputs are being adjusted on the fly in response to changing circumstances during the growing season? Are these decisions endogenous with temperature and rainfall and global market conditions? To wit: If a hot and dry season seems to be in the offing, reasonable farmers may well reduce other inputs rather than throw good money after bad. Since the changes in input choices are not observed by the authors, there will be omitted variables bias: The temperature and precipitation changes will be correlated with other input changes, so they will proxy for them.
Leave the estimation of human behavioral processes (farming, for instance) to experts. These wankers aren’t them.
David Appell,
You’ve posted a link to one article. There are thousands of articles arguing for and against warming, CO2 and more precipitation increasing food productivity. Here are some comments on Skeptical Science (an alarmist’s site) for example:
‘http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives.htm#1578
However, surely the IPCC AR$, WG1 Chapter 6 statements (burried in the text) that there was more carbon tied up in the biosphere when the planet was warmer should be persuasive. Also Chapter 6 states that the area of deserts expands when warmer and shrinks when colder.
It seems clear that there will be more food when warmer.
As Nordhaus seems to say, there is a lack of evidence that the projected amount of global warming would be catastrophic or dangerous? As you say, it seems the arguments about catastrophic global warming are “really are just hand-waving.“
A greener planet when temperatures are higher is not a priori a good thing for agriculture — much of that extra biomass is grass, weeds, etc, which make for bigger agricultural problems. It’s not as simple as ‘warmer means higher yields.’
Another factor is that many plants in the tropics could already be near their toleration for heat. Another is that their response might not be linear.
The question of plant productivity in a warmer, higher-CO2 world is a very complex one that scientists are grappling with. There are many factors at play: temperatures, precipitation, soil quality, C and N cycles, etc. You arguments are very simplistic and not at all convincing.
David Appell,
I suggest your comments “really are just hand-waving.“
I suggest your comments “really are just hand-waving.“
At least I’ve provided a peer-reviewed paper. You have yet to do even that.
I provided this link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9779.2011.01544.x/full with my first comment on this thread. That is where my comments started. Have you read it and digested it yet? the whole point is, that it seems there is little evidence that GW is dangerous or catastrophic. It seems very low probability of damage due to climate change and low probability that CO2 pricing will have any effect on the climate. As such, it would seem to be unwise to impose any measures that damage the economy. We should implement only “no regrets” policies and keep researching – as Bjorn Lomborg has been arguing for a decade or so.
“At least I’ve provided a peer-reviewed paper.”
Which has been duly destroyed. Honestly will you get over this “peer-reviewed” fetish? Peer reveiw is just a little better than throwing the damn papers off a staircase and accepting the ones that fall furthest. Anyone with any real experience of peer review and what ends up in the journals (and does not) knows this.
You just throw out s–t and don’t stop to answer reasonable objections. I have zero respect for you Dave Appell.
Anyone who’s written a peer reviewed paper knows they are held to high academic standards. That doesn’t mean every peer reviewed paper is correct; but it does mean they deserve to be taken seriously instead of reflexively dismissed.
David Appell,
You said (incorrectly) “At least I’ve provided a peer-reviewed paper. You have yet to do even that.”
My point is about the paper http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9779.2011.01544.x/full
You have made no comment on that. It seems you are ignoring the main point and diverting to other, subordinate, issues. That is, you are missing or avoiding the substantive issue.
No, you are wrong. I write some papers, and many get through the peer-review process. It is a whiny, picayune and irritating charade of filling out citation mantras and taking out interpretive material that pushes the buttons of the referees. Most of the time, it has no measurable impact on the quality of the finished product (though sometimes it does). Far worse is the sheer randomness of the process. You are absolutely wrong that peer review confers my responsibility to take a peer-reviewed publication extra-seriously. You are really the worst and most pathetic sort of elitist dogmatist, aren’t you?
Worst of all, technology has obviated the need for the peer review process and the traditional journals. By the time anything of importance to me appears in print, I have known about it from online working papers for at least a year–usually longer. I can find citation counts online and compare them to those for a well-chosen reference class… thereby learning everything I need to know about young scholars. Indeed it is what I SHOULD know about them: Their INFLUENCE not the VITA LINE COUNT.
Try again, Dave Appell.
Peter,
You are wasting your time. After seeing David make this statement
” much of that extra biomass is grass, weeds, etc, ”
It is pretty clear he has limited knowledge of farming. Strange seeing as how he lives in one of the richest farming regions in the world.
David,
I’m confused here. The paper says that they have estimated crop losses (using models), even though the empirical data has yields increasing, and claim that the increase is less than it should be (according to their model) and thus is the result of climate change.
Exactly what does this prove?
In the Northeastern US, icy roads are a significant cause of mortality.
@WHT “With probability 0.99, we know that oil depletion is a problem. Say that with probability 0.2, we estimate that climate change will be a problem. The probability that either will be a problem is still 0.992, since that is how you add according to the rules of probability.”
If I add 0.99 and 0.20 I get 1.19. This implies that it will be an absolute certainty that either or both will be a problem.
Correction: It will be an absolute certainty that either will be a problem but oil depletion is much more likely. The probability that both will be a problem in the scenario posed by WHT wouid be 0.99 x 0.20 = 0.198.
peterdavies252 said this:
Adding probabilities doesn’t work the way that you think it does.
This is the addition rule for independent events:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
so if P(A)=0.99 and P(B)=0.2
P(A or B) = 0.99 +0.2 – 0.99*0.2 = 0.992
just as I said.
You made the classic mistake, which is explained here with an example:
https://www.math.duke.edu//education/postcalc/probability/prob3.html
I figure that the logic of probability is not something that the majority of fake skeptics are familiar with.
I on the other hand have been fascinated by probability math since first introduced as erhaps a 12 year old. I have to admit that a probability of 1.19 is a bit unlikely. It is a bit like the chance of aggregate human mortality exceeeding unity – some people die more than once.
However it was quickly corrected and Peter is quite right that the likelihood of both A and B is the intersection of A and B – the joint probability of A and B is 0.99*0.2 – or 0.198.
The likelihood of either A or B is the chance of A plus the chance of B less the combined chance of A and B.
P(A) + P(B) – P(A)*P(B) = 0.99 + 0.2 – 0.99*0.2 = 0.992
So with Webby’s probabilities pulled entirely out of his arse (is that an American expression or just Australian?) – we have a good chance of peak oil or catastrophic cimate change demanding a suspension of democracy and capitalism intervention by him and his mates. No thanks.
A real risk analysis – of which I have done many – involves a consideration of both risk and consequence. Peak oil – consequence $100/barrel oil? So what. Global warming? No chance at all – climate is non-linear and we have but little wit to predict. There has been 1 climate shift so far this century and the likelihood for a few more is 99%. The shifts are unpredictable and potentially extreme. The consequences we will deal with because we have no choice.
According to the British, a coward dies a thousand deaths. I’m fairly certain the average Australian won’t have come across enough cowards to notice this, unless they’ve travelled to Europe.
Once again Chief’s explanation is wanting and he as usual does his little copycat cookbook recipe that he learned as a Civ.
This is the way to understand this:
What is the probability, Pn, that both things don’t happen? That is
Pn = (1-P(A)) * (1-P(B))
The remaining probability is that at least something happens
P(A or B) = 1 -Pn = 1 -(1-P(A)-P(B)+P(A)*P(B))
multiplying it out, we get:
P(A)+P(B)-P(A)*P(B)
0.99 +0.2 – 0.99*0.2 = 0.992
which is the result I had above and what Chief can’t get through his skull. That’s why they become Civs.
This is what we need to grok:
1. An almost certain outcome with a significant impact will take considerable engineering and technical skills (and some type of capital funding) to manage.
2. A potentially catastrophic outcome that has a slight chance of occurring will require risk mitigation.
Put the two things together — a high probability scenario combined with a high risk scenario, and it is a no-brainer that the world will do something to risk mitigate the outcome. Switching to something other than fossil fuels is the obvious strategy.
Did you really just read the first paragraph? What you say has no relevance to anything I said. Simple probability theory? I probably learned this with set theory at 15 or so.
Just to summarise the bit you didn’t read –
1. we know that oil and gas is limited but don’t give a rat’s arse – there is actually quite a lot left and substitution feasible at $100/barrel;
2. catastrophic climate change might indeed happen at any time – I keep linking to Woods Hole abrupt climate change page – but CO2 change is so minor it will probably be something else and ditto with the rat’s appendage – it is something we will need to deal with if it happens – it is certain that climate will change;
3. technological innovation will happen at an ever faster rate – we could push that along a bit in the energy field but we have instead an obsessive fixation on failed and deeply impractical mechanisms – so ditto with the rat’s things.
You have no quantitative estimate, which is what I do.
You don’t try to describe technological advances, which is what goes into my fossil fuel depletion models.
I read on WUWT about how fracking could speed up the replenishment from the shale repository into the reservoir. Put a nuke in the shale to accomplish fracking. Do you have that in your DE model, WHT?
Well, like I said, I actually do the stuff that you won’t do, which is to lift a finger and do some mathematical analysis. Do you actually look at production extrapolation from hydraulically fractured wells?
I do:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9139/889114
No offense Webby – I would rather believe wikipedia than you – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserves-to-production_ratio – and I still don’t give a rat’s arse.
Yep. Been too long since I been to skool. Thanks WHT and Chief for pointing out the error of my ways. :)
Web, be sure to buy your license first…
http://www.eastoregonian.com/free/oregon-asks-to-kill-salmon-eating-birds/article_44c2ab88-9024-11e1-a2d5-001a4bcf887a.html
but only for the one that deserves what it has coming to ‘it’.
What is so bad about global warming? How bad is it?”
“2. Six psychological strategies that communicators can use to bolster the recognition of climate change as a moral imperative.
Burdens versus benefits: Focus messaging on the costs, not benefits, that we may impose on future generations”
I am interested in what what are the costs and benefits of climate change and what are the costs and benefits of the proposed mitigation policies, like CO2 taxes and Cap and Trade schemes? What might be the unintended consequences of such mitigation schemes? What is likely to be the compliance cost of such schemes when they are implemented to the standard that would be required for trade in a virtually unmeasurable commodity (emissions of the Kyoto gasses)?
What are our estimates of the damage cost of Global Warming based on? William Nordhaus states (p24, http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/Accom_Notes_100507.pdf ):
“The major issue at this stage is that the database for impact studies continues to be relatively small.”
Nordhaus also seems to say there is a lack of convincing evidence that even worst case would be catastrophic:
“Economic policy in the face of sever tail events”, (March 2012) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9779.2011.01544.x/full
“The present study is intended to put the Dismal Theorem in context and examine the range of its relevance, with an application to catastrophic climate change. I conclude that tail events are sometimes of extreme importance, and we must be extremely careful to include them in situations of deep uncertainty. However, we conclude that no loaded gun of strong tail dominance has been uncovered to date.”
So, I wonder, how bad is global warming? Can we justify implementing policies that will do economic damage given the available estimates of the consequences of global warming are so uncertain and as Nordhaus says: “we conclude that no loaded gun of strong tail dominance has been uncovered to date.”?
And take the issue of climate change that the Left is using to take over the economy. We know where it leads. History tells us. Everyone works for the government and when the liberal Utopia implodes around everyone’s ears the Red Shirts come to break down the doors.
It is difficult for people to react to things that haven’t happened yet. We are constantly seeing here the need for proof climate change is already dangerous or, if not, it has been proven beyond doubt that it will happen. Thankfully people making the decisions can’t afford to take the risk of inaction. Just like earthquake proofing is done based on odds, climate-proofing is already beginning in the area of planning flood barriers for major cities. A politician who votes against forward thinking of this kind risks looking foolish in the face of evidence that already exists. Imagine yourself putting forward an argument in a coastal city that nothing needs to be done to climate-proof it because you personally don’t see the change that is already happening and you don’t believe the scientists anyway.
More ‘tail dominance’ thinking instead of admitting to yourself that you are entranced by worst case scenearios and are willing to set the precautionary theory on its head because you SUCK.
The worst case scenario for LA is an earthquake, and for Miami, a hurricane. Do their planners ignore these or take precautions?
What precautions do you take for old age, a wine cellar?
health insurance?
Plot.
You see what I meant? Paying at a low rate spread over time prevents a high sudden cost later. It is a mitigation strategy.
Sure, sure but going beyond a gasoline tax that already is stolen from building and repairing roads to keeping you in bunion cushions is beyond redemption.
Jim D,
“In the face of massive uncertainty, hedging your bets and keeping your options open is almost always the right strategy. Money and technology are our raw materials for options. A healthy society is constantly scanning the horizon for threats and developing contingency plans to meet them, but the loss of economic and technological development that would be required to eliminate all theorized climate change risk (or all risk from genetic technologies or, for that matter, all risk from killer asteroids) would cripple our ability to deal with virtually every other foreseeable and unforeseeable risk, not to mention our ability to lead productive and interesting lives in the meantime.
So what should we do about the real danger of global warming? In my view, we should be funding investments in technology that would provide us with response options in the event that we are currently radically underestimating the impacts of global warming. In the event that we discover at some point decades in the future that warming is far worse than currently anticipated, which would you rather have at that point: the marginal reduction in emissions that would have resulted up to that point from any realistic global mitigation program, or having available the product of a decades-long technology project to develop tools to ameliorate the problem as we then understand it?
The best course of action with regard to this specific problem is rationally debatable, but at the level of strategy, we can be confident that humanity will face many difficulties in the upcoming century, as it has in every century. We just don’t know which ones they will be. This implies that the correct grand strategy for meeting them is to maximize total technical capabilities in the context of a market-oriented economy that can integrate highly unstructured information, and, most important, to maintain a democratic political culture that can face facts and respond to threats as they develop.”
http://www.tnr.com/blog/critics/75757/why-the-decision-tackle-climate-change-isn%E2%80%99t-simple-al-gore-says?page=0,1
The problem is that, without some kind of price on carbon, there is no incentive for the development of the technologies that will be needed to either produce power without emitting carbon or geoengineering a solution.
How is the so-called “free market” supposed to provide that incentive?
David Appell
The problem is that, without some kind of price on carbon, there is no incentive for the development of the technologies
You are starting from the assumption that the damages from GW are greater than the benefits or that the damages of GW are worse than the damages due to the damages of raising the cost of energy that pricing CO2-e would do. But that assumptions does not seem to have much evidence to support it (as the Nordhause papers seem to suggest: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9779.2011.01544.x/full
Secondly, you ask:
How is the so-called “free market” supposed to provide that incentive?
If the market was free of distortions we’ve imposed then nuclear power would be far cheaper (and safer). Then you wouldn’t need a CO2 piece to have low emisisons energy.
I suggest CO2 tax and Cap and Trade is not going to work. It cannot be applied internationally. It cannot even be applied in the USA or the developed countries. The compliance cost would be enormous and will always be subject to massive rorting.
CO2 taxes and Cap and Trade schemes are penalty schemes. People do not like being penalised. So they will not be accepted.
If you want to argue for government intervention to allow low emissions technologies to be commercially competitive I’d suggest we should argue for intervene to remove the masses of past, bad interventions that society has imposed to favour some and penalise other technologies (such as nuclear power). Remove the impediments to a free market for energy as a first step.
I am all for more nuclear power. But markets need to be regulated in some fashion, for many reasons — to provide safety and stability, to avoid monopolies, to counteract negative externalities, etc. There will probably forever be disagreement about the appropriate level of regulation, but regulations have their purpose just as much as the market has its purpose.
I am with Appell on this one. We shouldn’t have given up on Solyndra so soon. We just have to have the guts to subsidize till it works, or go broke trying.
We are subsidizing fossil fuel companies by massive amounts — over a hundred billion dollars a year in added health costs alone — so why shouldn’t we subsidize other companies as well?
Because fossil fuels, and nulear, provide useful, dispatchable energy.
Fossil fuels provide energy, but also create a lot of damage. Generating power with fossil fuels creates more damage than value-added, according to Yale economist William Nordhaus in a 2011 paper:
Muller, Nicholas Z., Robert Mendelsohn, and William Nordhaus. 2011. “Environmental Accounting for Pollution in the United States Economy.” American Economic Review, 101(5): 1649–75.
http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.101.5.1649
http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/documents/Env_Accounts_052609.pdf
To summarize that paper’s findings: for every $1 in value that comes from coal-generated electricity, it creates $2.20 in damages. Total damages: $70 billion per year (in 2012 dollars).
Petroleum-generated electricity is even worse: $5.13 in damages for $1 in value.
The National Academy of Sciences estimates that fossil fuel use causes damages of at least $120 B/yr to health and the environment:
“Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use”
National Research Council, 2010
http://books.nap.edu/catalog/12794.html
Of course, no one on forums like this wants to mention external costs, because including them makes it clear that we are all subsidizing fossil fuels by a huge amount through worse health and higher medical costs. So a few Solyndras is a small price to pay to get energy without the negative side effects.
I’m actually more on David’s side on this one. The US has subsidized all sorts of endevors. A transnational rail system would have likely taken decades had it not been subidized with land grants. Think about ther number of colleges which started out as land grant institutions. Nuclear power had billions of federal dollars spent towards developing a commercial generating capacity. While I believe in a market approach, saying let the markets decide everything is not realistic.
Yes, I am in favor of long-term investment in climate-proofing the infrastructure, and promoting capabilities for sustainable energy, water supply and food production, and having it funded by fossil-carbon taxes rather than regular taxes. These need long-term planning and funding and cannot wait for last-minute fund-raising and quick fixes which would be more painful both financially and in terms of the lack of preparedness.
Exactly! Why stop wearing animal fur in the middle of the Ice Age when if you survive you may someday breathe the energy of the stars?
Wagathon, We will still need to wait a bit, as the first attempt,…
http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/health/swiss-women-dies-giving-water-food-thought-live-sunlight-article-1.1067359
Failed.
Is your point that humans can coonvience themselves that any silly idea makes sense?
You could use EXACTLY the same arguments to tie Democrat/Left-wing politicians and their supporters and the massive current governmental borrowing.
Governments who borrow, say in 30 bonds, are essentially placing a tax on the unborn.
Exactly the same six psychological challenges posed by state borrowing and the Democrats/Left-wing are blind to the consequences.
The only major difference is we know paying off the borrowing is going to hurt the people in the USA 30 years down the line, but we cannot say the same thing about linking CO2 to adverse climate impacts.
Democrats aren’t blind to the debt issue. On the contrary, some have proposed solving it by raising taxes back to the levels they used to be, but many Republicans are opposed to that, which shows that they aren’t really interested in solving the debt problem but in using it to achieve their goals. And many Democrats think this isn’t the time to try to solve the debt problem — that a higher priority is getting the economy back to its potential level.
The debt problem and the emission problem are interrelated, ie exporting emissions to less altruistic regimes.
The Uk divergence is a good example,where production rated emissions have decreased,whilst inversely consumption based emissions have increased .Redistribution of emissions at cost of internal production ,decreased taxation and jobs is a factor that needs to be debated .
The problem is highlighted by the commons committee eg fig1 and 2
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmenergy/1646/1646vw18.htm
As I read it, we’re already at the peak of the laffer curve. So increasing taxes will only depress revenues. It shouldn’t even be a surprise. For the past century or so, Politics has operated as a tuning feedback loop, to design a tax system that maximized the amount of money politicians have to buy votes with.
You are confused.
1. sensitivity is defined as the increase in temperature given an increase in forcing in watts.
For example: If the sun increased by 1 watt, what would the increase in temperature be. Lets start with that.
There are two questions.
1. What is the sensitivity ( response) in C, to an increase in forcinging (Watts) This figure is INDEPENDENT of the source of the forcing.
2. What is the increase in forcing due to doubling of C02
If you look at the full Mauna Loa record, transient climate sensitivity(*), which is a lower bound on climate sensitivity, is at least 2.1 C:
http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2012/03/better-way-to-calculate-climate.html
(*) To be sure, this simple calculation does not exclude many factors that also influence climate, especially aerosols. It’s simply the change in temperature that has occurred compared to the change in atmospheric CO2.
David, just plot LN(CO2) vs Temp and take the slope. This gives a climate sensitivity of 2.1 even after all the fiddling around with the temp data. .
http://i179.photobucket.com/albums/w318/DocMartyn/LNCO2vstemp.jpg
Now worries.
That’s exactly what I did.
PS: The dT ~ ln(CO2) relationship begins to break down for higher values of CO2.
Brandon, the guesstimate that both David and I get; 2.1 degrees per CO2 doubling is the upper boundary. As both methodologies ignore other contributions of gasses like methane for instance, but rule out the fat-tail estimates of >2.5 degrees; so values of 8 degrees are out of the window.
The bottom plot I present shows what the temperature would have been without the [CO2] increase, indicating that large scale temperature fluctuations, as in 1920-1980, will still be observed. If the sensitivity is actuality of the order of 0.5-1 degree, all we have witnessed since 1985 is a fluctuation similar to the one that began 95 years.
Brandon: Yes, I’m assuming all change in temperature is due to CO2 (and associated feedbacks). This is just a blog post, not a scientific paper.
But if you look at the change in atmospheric carbon content from, say, CO2 vs CH4, the vast majority is due to the former. In terms of carbon, anthropogenic CH4 emissions are about 2-3% of CO2 emissions, Yes, it has a higher warming potential, but it also dissipates out of the atmosphere much quicker. In the end, most of the carbon we put into the atmosphere will be from CO2, and most of the manmade forcing will be from CO2.
DocMartyn:
No, it isn’t. It isn’t any sort of actual boundary. All it is is the lower boundary for transient climate sensitivity in some hypothetical world where the only greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide.
It isn’t an upper boundary because transient climate sensitivity is different from climate sensitivity as a whole. It isn’t a lower boundary because it ignores far too much forcing from other greenhouse gasses.
In fact, the uncertainty on how to handle transient climate sensitivity is so high, it’s impossible to know whether the bias I’ve been discussing is larger or smaller than it. That means it is impossible to know whether you guys are calculating an upper boundary, lower boundary, or just some value between the two.
Which is fine, as long as you actually say it. If you two tell people what you’ve calculated, and what the limitations on interpreting it are, there’s no problem. But you aren’t. Neither of you said a word about the issue I brought up. David Appell didn’t even understand why the issue mattered so much (he didn’t even understand what sort of effect it would have).
And that’s the problem. It is not acceptable for an important bias to go undiscussed, and apparently not even understood.
I find these “analyses” amusing. Ignoring confounding factors is generally bad, but how can anyone act like carbon dioxide is the only greenhouse gas?
I think it’d be interesting to see the same calculations done with effective CO2 levels,
Brandon: “Climate sensitivity” can mean different things. Often it means the change in temperature from a given change in a specific forcing, such as CO2. So you could calculate a different sensitivity for each GHG. But, of course, ultimately you want to know the sensitivity to all known forcings, which means you would, in principle, need to consider all GHGs as well as any expected solar changes, volcanic factors, etc.
My little blog analysis wasn’t intended to be precise science. It’s just an example.
David Appell:
Imprecision is fine. What isn’t fine is presenting an analysis as concluding something without offering any words of caution when it’s conclusion is necessarily overestimated. It’s even worse when you claim to be able to calculate the statistical uncertainty of your answer while ignoring such a major bias in it.
And that’s ignoring the fact you call your answer a “lower bound on the climate sensitivity” because a response to forcing happens over time. That means you’re mentioning a bias which increases your answer, but ignoring a bias which would decrease it.
It’s especially bad when you realize the negative bias you don’t mention may well overwhelm the positive bias you do mention, thus invalidating your claim of a “lower bound.”
How is ignoring other GHGs going to give a *lower* climate sensitivity?
Sorry, my previous reply wasn’t clear. Wouldn’t including other GHGs make for a *higher* (transient) climate sensitivity?
Yes, it would be nice to see some calculation with effective CO2 and also considering the temperature of the effective radiant layer and the effected surface.
For example: If you just add a surface impact of 3.7 Wm-2 uniformly across the globe, there would be about 40% less impact at the warmest part of the tropics, the full impact at some magic average region of the global and 40% greater impact at the polar regions, unless the polar region has virtually no water vapor and an average maximum temperature less than -20 degrees C. That seems to make the problem a little more interesting.
Try it sometime, just convert the regional temperatures to equivalent Flux, add the 3.7, convert back to temperature and redo the average. But then, if there is enough water vapor prior to the additional flux, the temperature increase is less. Silly relationship looks non-linear :)
David Appell:
This does not speak well for any analysis you might offer. You have this effect exactly backwards. The fact adding non-CO2 greenhouse gasses will cause temperatures to go up does not mean adding them to any analysis will make the result go up.
In your case, the reason considering the other greenhouse gasses will lower the expected sensitivity is simple. You say we can expect a doubling of forcings from CO2 in 166 years. If you considered the other greenhouse gasses, this value would drop as we will see a doubling of effective CO2 levels well before we see a doubling of actual CO2 levels.
Suppose for example, we set your D (doubling time) to 100 years. We then multiply it by your m_Hadley, getting 1.26 C. Multiply it by m_(UAH LT), and we get 1.35C.
To put it simply, the more positive forcings there are, the lower D is, and thus the lower your calculated sensitivity will be. To put it less simply, by ignoring other greenhouse gasses, you assign all observed warming to carbon dioxide, inflating it’s significance and your calculation.
You’re assigning it blame it doesn’t deserve, then actually expressing surprise this would artificially inflate the value you blame on it.
I understand what David Appel is trying to do and I find it a clever identity. He assumes first that concentration of CO2 increases exponentially over time with an exponent a.
C = C0 * exp(At)
then he applies the climate sensitivity approximation
dT = k * ln (C/C0)
substituting the first into the second:
dT = k * A * t
we know dT and A and t from the empirical data.
If C0 = 280 and C = 394, then k = dT/(A*t) or k = dT/ln(C/C0)
take your pick, they both give k of approximately 2 degree C.
The cleverness is just in realizing that the log of an exponential results in the exponent alone. Can’t argue the math, as that is why they call it an identity.
David Appell:
Are you seriously suggesting it’s okay to grossly mislead people because you’re doing it in a blog post, not a scientific paper? Good luck with that argument.
It’s funny. I actually know what the forcings from various greenhouse gasses are thought to be. I’ve even discussed them in some detail. That’s why I can tell you, off the top of my head, carbon dioxide provides ~63% of the forcings greenhouse gasses provide. That’s also why I picked “100” for my example, as it almost perfectly meets the ratio of the actual values.
But by all means. Ignore what the IPCC says the relative forcings of various greenhouse gasses are. Or accept them as true, and just willingly mislead people who read what you say, because you’re only posting on a blog.
I mean, 63% does count as “most,” so clearly we don’t need to worry about the other 37%.
Oh, and to be clear, I’m talking about effects over long periods of time, so the shorter lifespan of things like methane is being considered. If I were not, the numbers would be quite different, as shown by this graph.
WHT
As the warming 1910-1940 is considered natural, the probable man made component is at most half of the observed warming, making climate sensitivity k of approximately 1 deg C.
“63%”? That’s a very high level of precision — higher than what the IPCC claims.
Most atmospheric methane breaks down rather quickly to water or CO2. In the end, most of the carbon man adds to the atmosphere will be in the form of CO2.
David Appell, your response is pathetic:
This is nonsense. The IPCC gives the total forcing of greenhouse gases as 2.63, and the forcing from CO2 as 1.66. Both values are given to three significant digits, and the value I gave was given to two. This means the value I gave was actually less precise than the IPCC values.
You can argue I should give uncertainty ranges for it, but given your continued and willful refusal to account for the large bias I’ve pointed out, that will ring quite hollow.
But hey, I’m a sporting fellow. I’ll go ahead and give you the most favorable value possible. That would be 77%. That means the bias would cause your value to be at least one fifth lower than you give.
This is an incredibly pathetic response. I specifically gave a link to show the importance of the time period covered. You ignored it. Rather than actually account for the issue, you just say “most” of the temperature change is due to carbon dioxide.
Most means more than 50%, making it a meaningless criteria. I’ve specifically said even if one accounts for the bias I discussed, “most” of the effect will still be due to carbon dioxide. This means your response to me is completely non-responsive.
To put it bluntly, you are willfully misleading people by refusing to address a significant bias you know exists, but refuse to account for. The fact you haven’t even discussed the possibility of adding a warning to your post strongly suggests you have no integrity on this issue.
Have you noticed that the IPCC also gives error bars?
Look: I *defined* climate sensitivity as “the change in global mean surface temperature for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 level.” So anybody who actually read my blog would have seen that and so would know my context. Furthermore, I explicitedly wrote that one of my assumptions was “temperature change is proportional to the logarithm of the CO2 level.”
http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2012/03/what-does-real-data-say-about-climate.html
That right there defines my model, and specifies its limitations. If you don’t like it, leave a comment on my blog (warning: rude or ad hominem comments will be deleted), or start your own blog.
David Appell, what would it take to get you to read what I say?
No, I don’t think I realized the IPCC gave uncertainty ranges. It’s not like I did a calculation explicitly based on them or anything:
The total forcings from greenhouse gasses in the IPCC report are given as 2.63 (+/- 0.26). The forcings from CO2 alone are given as 1.66 (+/- 0.17). The ratio given for proportional forcing from CO2 by the central values is 1.66/2.63 = 63%. The ratio given by taking the minimum value for total forcing and maximum value for forcing from CO2 (giving you the most favorable result possible) is 1.83/2.37 = 77%.
Oh my god! I actually did notice at the values I explicitly referred to do exist!
David Appell:
What they might not know is what you said isn’t actually. What you gave was actually a sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels if no other greenhouse gasses exist.
Slight difference.
That assumption is fine. It’s also irrelevant. The relationship between CO2 and temperature doesn’t say anything about whether or not other factors are affecting temperature as well. It’s akin to saying temperatures in a room in winter are related to the amount of sun the room gets, but not mentioning the fact the furnace is on.
Maximum climate sensitivity using high school statistics
CO2 concentration data is available from Mauna Loa from 1960-2011.
Global mean temperature data of HADCRUT3 is available from 1960-2011.
Their correlation graph is shown here => http://bit.ly/Iu4OXV
This result gives 1ppm increase in CO2 concentration corresponds to an increase in global mean temperature of 0.0087 deg C.
Assuming ALL this warming is caused by CO2, we have the estimate:
Maximum Climate Sensitivity = 0.0087 (deg C/ppm) *280 (ppm) = 2.44 deg C.
Assuming half the warming is due to natural causes, actual climate sensitivity = 1.2 deg C.
Girma, that was OK until the last sentence. Natural causes and other effects, if anything have hidden some of the warming since 1960 (mainly aerosols) and the sun hasn’t done much, and what is to say these other effects have suddenly stopped now. So you end up with 2.4+ per doubling from your data. Skeptics may not like this approach because it doesn’t help them in any way, so I think they will soon advise you to stop before doing more harm to them with this particular graph.
Or try fitting the logarithmic function? :D
Once again The Girma is nailed by his own ineptitude.
Jim D takes the graph that The Girma links to and correctly points out that it leads to a 2.4 degree C change for a doubling of CO2.
The graph also confirms exactly what David Appell was talking about. The line is simply a linearized variation of the accepted logarithmic sensitivity of temperature to CO2 concentration.
Now watch as The Girma doubles back and begins complaining that we are misinterpreting what the graph says.
Yes, using a log axis for CO2 would have been more consistent with AGW and would have given 2.2 C per doubling (similar to what DocMartyn found). I am glad the skeptics are converging on this.
Jim D | April 29, 2012 at 12:19 pm |
A minimum sensitivity of 2.2C/doubling, no?
We can’t certain that confounding variables and negative feedbacks are either fixed or decrease faster than the log function, while positive feedbacks are either linear or grow at least as fast as logarithmically.
After all, how much higher are we likely to see particulate emission rates go, for example? Given the very short residency time compared CO2, they’d have to be increasing at least as a Fibonacci sequence, which would come to a limit all its own (qv London smog).
Far more likely we’re seeing a transient 2C +/- 0.5C confounding variable.
I feel obliged to point out Girma, Bart R, Jim D and WebHubTelescope just promoted the exact error I stressed DocMartyn and David Appell had made. In the exact fork I discussed the error, no less.
Apparently, people on both sides of the global warming debate want to act like carbon dioxide is the only greenhouse gas. I find that mind-boggling.
But for those who might actually care about analyses based on reality, rather than some hypothetical world in which things like methane don’t exist, here’s an additional thought. The forcing added by greenhouse gas emissions varies based on the time period covered. If one uses the values for a 100 year period, approximately one third of greenhouse gas forcings come from non-CO2 greenhouse gasses. However, if one uses values for a 20 year period, that value becomes approximately one half.
The point here is it is impossible to directly compare greenhouse gas forcings to temperature in the approach being used. That only works if you (nonsensically) ignore all non-CO2 greenhouse gasses. Once you start having different gasses with different residency times, the approach becomes impossible. The only way to salvage it would be to account for different residency times in the calculation of effective CO2 levels.
But what are the odds people who are okay with the insane and over-simplified calculations that make no sense would actually do something like that?
http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/1973/co2vshadcrut4.gif
The above is a semi-log plot over the Mauna Loa CO2 collection period which suggests that:
dT = 3.16 * ln (CO2)
and
3.16*ln(2) = 2.2 C
All the skeptics are converging around their ringleader Girma and I say let them believe in the trendology. The climate scientists are doing the heavy lifting anyways.
I should add that Brandon doesn’t seem to get the fact that it really is a matter of pointing out the obvious first and foremost. There is no equilibrium included, other greenhouse gases aren’t included, aersols aren’t considered, natural variance isn’t included. This is really about showing how Girma is changing his tune and has embarked on his journey into becoming a warmist.
Yes, it is oversimplistic to just plot CO2 and T. The IPCC estimate is that other GHGs and aerosols are roughly canceling and both shorter-lived, so this works better than it should. Solar influences are ruled out by not including the earlier part of the century. If you just plot 1980-2011, you would get a higher number presumably because aerosol levels have stabilized. These plots just go to show how a typical CO2 effect shows up with an explainable magnitude. Ignoring CO2 or reducing its effect makes these much harder to explain without invoking unmeasured forcing changes.
Up to the late middle of the last century, sunspot correlation with global temperature was very impressive; strong enough to dominate the isolates of the GMT curve over any other single source for at least eight decades and possibly for centuries.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:41/mean:61/isolate:123/plot/sidc-ssn/mean:11/mean:13/from:1850/normalise/scale:-0.125/to:1960/plot/sidc-ssn/mean:11/mean:13/from:1960/normalise/scale:-0.125
After the mid-1950’s, something appears to have perturbed that relationship, and the correlation vanished. We no longer have as strong a connection to solar activity in our weather as once we did.
As others have pointed out, other GHG’s are short-lived and largely self-cancelling; over a decade, their influence on GMT can be seen to be weak or to be well-represented as a feedback of CO2. Math, it tells us things.
Like that the sensitivity is quasi-dynamic; at this point, it is likely about 2.2C/doubling with an approximate 2.0+/-0.5C confounding variable obscuring the rest of the dominant sensitivity.
As CO2 level rises, sensitivity is likely also to rise in some nonlinear fashion. (Note the word ‘transient’ ought be sprinkled here and there in this discussion, but isn’t often enough.)
Bart: Until you can prove that CO2’s absorption by its increase has caused the spectrally integrated OLR to decrease by a proportionate amount with respect to the surface emission temperature you are speaking pure crap. This has never been accomplished and there seems to be no hurry by warming fanatics like yourself to ever get it done. The reason is the boogeyman of truth awaits on the other end that proves your sensitivity factors are the nonsense and crap the founding work always suggested they would be.. 100 billion dolars later and counting! Do we get our money back?
Bart R:
I’m not sure I can adequately express how wrong this is. Please reread it, and try posting what you actually mean.
I would love to hear how math tells us something like methane “can be seen to be… well-represented as a feedback of CO2.” This is especially true since there’s a feedback with methane which creates CO2.
Chuck Wiese | April 30, 2012 at 3:09 am |
You misidentify me. I’m a chaos fanatic, not a warming fanatic. Entirely different thing. So let’s try to avoid personal slurs, insults and invective, shall we, to see if we can get to an honest dialogue about actual science?
A chaos fanatic doesn’t need to demonstrate squat about OLR wrt SET, for example, as external forcing remains perturbation regardless of the exact path of change of the level of the system.
All that is needed is
a) for CO2 to have a long ultimate residency (it clearly does, compounded by the huge nonlinearities of the medium and short term buffering mechanisms), and
b) significant interaction of CO2 with OLR in the lab. The bizzaro ‘requirements’ you speculate about (note we’re discussing the ideas, not you personally) are simply details in a complex of systems that have been too poorly observed until lately (and are still orders of magnitude too poorly observed, which I’m not blaming you personally for, after all you appear to have nothing to do with observing anything at all, so can’t be held liable) for your assertions (again, referring to ideas, not personalities; the ideas are well worth insulting, whereas I don’t know you and consider you’re likely a fine human being) to be even a little meaningful at a practical level.
Which puts them in good company with your bizzaro accounting (again, the ideas; I mean no disrespect to you, unless you happen to be an accountant, in which case I’d have to ask what are you thinking!, putting your profession into such disrepute by such incompetency). Have you been using JoNovamation (no insult intended to Jo Nova, however misleading her campaign of disinformation and confusion may be) to imagine that you once had $100 billion that was snuck out of your wallet without you noticing?
More simply, TOA imbalance appears to be that ‘truth’ waiting at the other side, and it’s not kind to your suppositions. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/imbalance/maps.html
Brandon Shollenberger | April 30, 2012 at 3:41 am |
After a decade in the atmosphere, methane pretty much has already become CO2.
And both of them have had the effect of increasing release of methane and CO2 from their respective sequestration under ground and sea in one form or another due rising temperatures (as confirmed by BEST to a confidence of 1000:3).
And while increased CO2 increased biomass, it also increases microbial tendency to alter the atmosphere by — guess what? That’s right, among other things, releasing more methane.
See? Feedback.
Bart R:
First, I want to point out your parenthetical is unclear, at best. To anyone who didn’t know what BEST was, it would sound like you’re claiming BEST confirmed methane and CO2 caused feedbacks, releasing more of themselves.
Second, methane currently accounts for something like 20% of the increased greenhouse effect. What you describe couldn’t possibly account for that, even if it were true. And there’s no actual indication it is.
You weren’t asked if there was a feedback. You were asked how something which currently makes up 20% of the increased greenhouse effect “can be seen to be… well-represented as a feedback of CO2.” You haven’t answered that question. Instead, you’ve given a bogus answer to another question and acted like it answered mine. That’s either stupid or dishonest.
You’ve also failed to address the absurd comment you made, which I highlighted. Since you haven’t, I’ll mock it now. You claimed:
By definition, all greenhouse gasses have a positive forcing. They could not possibly cancel out. It is hard to imagine anything dumber one could say about greenhouse gasses.
Brandon Shollenberger | April 30, 2012 at 2:44 pm |
Huh. It seemed so patent that water vapor is both short-lived and somewhat self-cancelling when it becomes cloud, that I wouldn’t need to explain it to anyone who was willing and able to read so far into this thread and make such learned points.
But then, I’d also have imagined anyone so equipped would know what was meant by BEST would be http://berkeleyearth.org/. (And people call _me_ Professor Pedantic?)
And this ‘stupid or dishonest’ thing, you’ve excluded several other options:
a) trying to get you to think for yourself;
b) limited by how much typing I can do in a day;
c) giving you the benefit of the doubt that you can get from a logical premise to an unavoidable conclusion.
“You weren’t asked if there was a feedback. You were asked how something which currently makes up 20% of the increased greenhouse effect “can be seen to be… well-represented as a feedback of CO2.” You haven’t answered that question.”
Without commenting on your unestablished 20% premise, if there is a thing that is a feedback, that is accepted as a feedback, that isn’t then disproved as a feedback, then the amount of its contribution, from fractional to many orders of magnitude more is irrelevant. Methane blooms filling the sky with thousands of times the mass of CO2 in the atmosphere could in theory (though certainly not in fact) still be a feedback, if the cause were the CO2 raising the temperature enough to vaporize the methane. Nothing in your 20% figure is the leastwise relevant.
Bart R:
That could possibly make sense if you had been talking about water vapor. It doesn’t make sense given you said:
You referred to all non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gasses. You cannot say one of these is self-canceling, therefore all of them are. That’s basic logic. To demonstrate my point, methane isn’t self-canceling to any extent, therefore your comment is wrong.
You said all non-CO2 greenhouse gasses are either “weak” or “well-represented as a feedback of CO2.” I pointed out the magnitude of methane’s effect to show it isn’t weak. So despite your claim, it is completely relevant. Moreover, you’ve once again completely failed to answer the question you were asked. As I said before:
You still haven’t answered that question. You claim the forcings from methane emissions can be well-represented as a feedback of CO2, yet every time you’re challenged to show this, you discuss anything but the issue.
And yes, it is either stupid or dishonest to respond to a question by saying something which doesn’t answer the question but act as though it does. You can either provide an explanation, admit your comment was false, or continue being non-responsive.
Two of those options are reasonable.
Brandon Shollenberger | May 3, 2012 at 1:03 am |
It’s funny that we’re disagreeing, as we’re so largely in agreement, but one ought get to the bottom of differences, to see if at the roots there is something interesting. Like the princess and the pea.
“You cannot say one of these is self-canceling, therefore all of them are. That’s basic logic. To demonstrate my point, methane isn’t self-canceling to any extent, therefore your comment is wrong.”
http://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/black-or-white
I can say one of them is self-cancelling, therefore the set of other GHG’s has a self-cancelling property. As I said (or rather supported someone else saying), “largely self-cancelling”, and water vapor is by most measures the largest of the GHG’s, the set of other GHGs is largely self-cancelling, due to the largest of the GHG’s (by a plurality) being largely self-cancelling.
And compared CO2, all the GHG’s are short-lived, or become CO2.
Sure, I’m not dismissing the other GHG’s. Truth be told, we’re so twisted in this thread, I’m not entirely sure I remember the original point.
But pedantry is so compelling an addiction. Doh, look. I’m preaching to the choir on that.
Not following you Steve; surely the wavelength of the photons that constitute the watt of energy are also important?
What is the albedo of the Earth with respect to the two equal energy packets?
Is the albedo for sw and lw radiation the same, in all land and aquatic environments?
Which moral imperative?
Dennis | April 28, 2012 at 8:25 pm |
If we’re taking our morals lessons from real estate speculators and flippers wrapping themselves in the flag, we’re seeing some other kind of failure.
Oh, and in case you missed the source that inspired the video, the speculation is running toward 1965’s:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaGVCO6CByQ&feature=related
Though of course no one in America misses the point of what’s really happening in this election year:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m22tn8bp7uc
Thanks for linking the spoof video, I also agree with the core message of the video, but I don’t care who put it out or who is funding them.
Dennis
That is just brilliant.
Thank you.
Does any one know the name of the presenter?
Girma | April 29, 2012 at 1:33 am |
Mr. Orssengo, the political advertisement was paid for by a shell group that is a shell group of a shell group related to the Cato Institute and funded principally by Howard Rich, a man who made his money by speculating on real estate specializing in the technique called ‘flipping’: the flipper buys a distressed property, has a crew go in to intensively apply cosmetic changes on a schedule so short it will avoid inspection or interference by concerned neighbors to hide the defects, then sell the property at an inflated price using high-pressure sales tactics.
The Koch brothers appear also to fund some of these shell organizations, which seem to be set up to get around federal election funding rules.
You can start at freemarketamerica.org/about/ if you have questions; I’m sure they can put you in touch with the actor if you email them.
Bart R
I don’t care who paid for it. I only see the content. It is just brilliant. I wish I know the presenter. He has done a superb job.
This guy?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnY0RznyRQM&feature=endscreen&NR=1
(Remember my pencil analogy for CO2 optical density? Well, now you know it came from Milton Friedman.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzD80HhofwM&feature=relmfu
He’s also done this scaremongering message, too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdZbstEmAaM&feature=relmfu
I thought you were claiming you wanted the scaremongering to stop?
Though to be more helpful, his name is Ryan Houck, an associate of (Rep)Senator Mel Martinez.
(www.worldpropertychannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/real-estate-news-miami-condo-foreclosures-florida-home-sales-lesley-blackner-ryan-houck-mel-martinez-pultegroup-lennar-corp-florida-association-of-realtors-3315.php) explains the connection between a New York real estate flipper and Houck, an advocate for developers who thinks neighbors should have no say in the standards of building in their neighborhood.
Thanks Bart
I am impressed by him. What superb presentation? Only few people can equal him. He is brilliant.
Bart. I am only talking about the above presentation.
Bart R,
All of those videos are great, what is the problem, they are opinion pieces and not particularly scary, unless you are scared by allowing people to freely express their opinions.
Perhaps you are scared because the If I Wanted America to Fail Video has 1.7 million views in 9 days.
Dennis | April 29, 2012 at 9:16 am |
I have no problem with free speech; have you not noticed me making ample use of the principle? What about posting and discussing things I disagree with makes you question my commitment to the precept?
However, to look at someone dancing around clad in the flag declaring how great a danger America itself is in from identifiable groups merely and only for the opinions they express that differ from the sponsors’ views, if you don’t see the problem in that as a form of rather extreme and blatant scaremongering.. then there’s a problem of optics you have to deal with.
“What’s the problem” with putting the survival of America on the block as the only topic? With drilling into the fate of the nation over what turns out to be block parent associations asking that community standards apply to builders of strip malls, and the regulation of, for example hexavalent chromium next to grade schools, mercury salts into upstream drinking water sources, lead dust into playgrounds and sports fields, arsenic in the human food chain, cyanide in clothing, xylene, benzene, toluene and hydrazine in dairy products.. see, that would be real actual stuff that really actually ought to scare people who gather as parents and neighbors who care about their own health and their own survival, and that we know for a fact that some with the very same unfettered entrepreneurial spirit Mr. Houck enthuses over have in the past dumped and walked away from laughing all the way to the bank.
So really, the sanctimony over free speech because the honesty of that speech has a light shone on it to burn off the fog and expose the naked avarice and indifference of greedy men, is a problem.
I’m as free enterprise as a person can get, philosophically and by sensibility. I’ve worked at the headquarters in America of some of the great giants of enterprise, and am proud of what I’ve done for the shareholders’ interests. I can honestly say that opportunists and leeches who rally against the defense of America’s health by lobbying against the machinery of that defense in the EPA have time and again proven their true stripe in when seen in their fully deregulated natural environment, and sicken ordinary entrepreneurs and businessmen for perverting wholesome American commerce into poisonous piracy – and not the Johnny Depp kind.
However glib their flag-drapped slickster from the Disney state may be.
Bart,
Do these
“… identifiable groups”
qualify as “deniers” ?
Yes, they were just kidding…
http://www.c-span.org/WHCD/
& what a bunch of inside-punch-lines from everybody who is anybody.
You should invite Mr. Houck to Australia to tour and give lectures.
I’m sure he’d make an excellent ambassador for American values and precepts.
A little more research and information.
http://mediamatters.org/research/201204270002
As the question is about morality, we may as well have some questionable morality.
Probably NSFW, and I’m not entirely keen to post it here, but it is directly relevant, as a popular view of what America thinks is Fail.
Social psychologists — hmmmm. They certainly have an excellent track record lately for quality research. If there is any academic field out there which is likely even worse than cancer or biotech research for producing unreplicatable crap (leaving out climate science for the moment), it would have to be social psychology.
Even if we were to take as a given this study’s ridiculous assumption that global warming was proven, what are the odds that the study hasn’t been butchered with rank incompetence? I’ll put the over/under at less than 1 in 4.
When I was walking in a field
An apocalyptic prophet spoke to me.
He fixed me with his glittering eye
And told me of my human infamy…
The sea will boil, the earth a saltry fireball
Will become. We eat, we drink, and over populate
The earth…pollute the atmosphere with co2.
He goes on, blah,blah, blah, unceasingly pontificates.
So then I tell him that the clouds
Heaped overhead, an imminent catastrophe presage,
He’d better make it out of here, post haste.
And i am left alone on centre stage.
I feel the quickening breeze and see
It brush the waiting grass, and then
A cricket chirps, the air grows cool
……… and so it rains.
H/t to an ancient mariner.
Oh, is it poetry slam time?
With apologies to Wm Cowper.
Light moves in a mysterious way,
Its wonders to perform;
It plants its footsteps in the sea,
And rides upon the storm.
Albedo returns part to space,
By cloud or ice – water’s other states;
The rest to IR converts apace,
That GHG back radiates.
Deep in unfathomable mines
Of never failing skill,
Earth treasures up ancient remains,
Reserves of oil and coal.
And we could use it to manufacture
Plastics of every sort and use;
Pharmaceuticals, fertilizer and more,
Instead we burn it, such an abuse.
Judge not the heat by feeble sense,
But trust in Mathematics;
The TOA energy imbalance,
Points to equilibrating dynamics.
Blind sun belief is full of errors,
Some scan cosmic rays in vain;
Historical interpreters,
The paleo record is plain.
Anthropogenic causes,
Human agency, my friend;
These bring economic losses,
Due extreme climate in the end.
Don’t you think dear Beth that Le Pétomane’s meter is pedestrian, the rhyme scheme almost endearingly banal and the subject lacking in any sense of the poetic? Merely a string of concepts connected only barely thematically? As meaningful as a shopping list?
I am not suggesting that he try anything as daring as this – but you might like it. Written many years ago when I was a student.
Debris
Forget the passionate and visionary in your poetry.
Take a still photo of you ontological evolution.
Where do you stand now?
Myself I live amidst the debris of experience.
The undone washing, the unclean toilet.
Coffee grounds littering the kitchen nook.
Is this a time for poetry?
Poetry would subsume the past and future
into the evolving moment.
Glacial ice would grind away the coffee on my kitchen floor.
Hot suns would volatise the inconsequential
detritus of my existence.
I float as a bubble in the limitless expresso of the cosmos.
Practical question intervene.
Can I afford to wait for the next ice
age for the washing up to be done?
Or should I sort and organise
amongst the rubble for the clues
as to the meaning of my life?
How shall we marshall meaning out of chaos? I have an idea it is by love. The mind may traverse the universe. Create monsters and demons. But that is a terrifyingly lonely universe. Loving and being loved are the twin poles around which my being revolves.
I must have a plan. Something modest and unassuming would be appropriate. Especially with people. Great events are transpiring and I do respect the dreams of others.
I pick up a foot soiled piece of paper from the floor to finish this poem. Glance at the Science and Technology Studies folders on top of mountains of paper. Take up the thread of the day.
So your whole don’t want to pay the consequences of your CO2 emission thing, it’s because you’re like many boomers who never had to clean up after themselves, because their parents always did it for them?
We were not even working class – more your poor white trash. My father left – my mother was an alcoholic who beat, verbally and emotionally abused and neglected us in turn. In fact generational poor white trash since Henry Ellison was transported to Sydney Harbour in the second fleet. We were pretty much feral street kids – so just your average upbringing. I have a bit of empathy for some poor bastard with their arse out of their pants – to use an Australian turn of phrase.
I have actually installed solar panels, kitchen lights and dvd players in a grass hut in a third world village. My rents in-law – who have sadly passed on too young. Micro-hydro is a better option there – but needs more of a hands on technological capacity. Cheap solar would be a better option still. But there is little doubt that cheap energy and economic development go hand in hand with health and education outcomes.
My costs matter little. $10 billion as nation to invest in technology? Too little – too late. It should be $10 billion a year – leveraged tax breaks for innovation. Make it cheaper to innovate rather than more expensive to produce energy. More expensive energy translates into lower global economic growth – with consequences for the most economically marginal people. We have committed to doubling our aid to $10 billion a years. Shit – if the government mongrels can’t get anything right they could hand out condoms, cook stoves and anti-malarial nets. Or give it to Bill Gates for God’s sake. But we could also get 50% reductions in black carbon and carbon dioxide there – on top of enhancing food production and groundwater stores. Hell – that would also reduce sea levels.
So when you say I don’t give a damn – I am concerned more for a piddling amount extra that the government might tax me – just remember who you are talking to. I am not some middle class Unabomber wannabe hiding out in the Minnesota wilderness with a second story snow door , eighteen names for snow and delusions of moral grandeur.
Robert I Ellison
Ah. So, it’s that nations should only work on one type of problem at a time. Two is too much to handle. All of the budget in your projects, and none in anyone else’s because that would be too much of a boggle.
And once you do get Australia to vote to spend all that money on cook stoves or bed nets, which one will it be? Can’t be both at once, that would be too much to handle.
And when the bed nets get chosen, will it be treated or untreated? Africa or Asia? …
The best of the solutions to high CO2 levels make economies better, more efficient, and more capable of solving these problems themselves out of the democratic decisions of individuals, not from some state-run committee substituting its judgement for the free will of the populace.
That’s rather insulting.
Guess it is ok for me to call anyone not a veteran a cowardly wuss because they lacked the courage to serve?
”Immoral tribalism”: The politicization of climate change fosters ideological polarization”. Polarization?! Debate is; when the most solid proof is adopted, by people involved in the debate. Problem is: the whole conspiracy has being built on a quick sand, if one thing is proven wrong – the fear is that; if admitting wrong on one subject,, the lot will collapse. Both camps are suffering from ”truth phobia” a debilitating / destructive disease.
Putting the CONSTANT big / small climatic changes in the same basket with the phony GLOBAL warming, is the biggest immorality – then when the reference of ”morality” is added into the same basket, as a loaded comment
Would the climate stopped changing, if it wasn’t any industrial revolution? Why nobody said: what would have being the ”climate” without the ”crapogenic gospel”? How can the earth sustain 7 billion people without producing extra CO2?! Because H2O controls the climate; improvement on places where the climate is extreme, is possible. But by blaming CO2 / CH4 = is denied any improvement to the climate; which is a crime in itself.
2] stating that: a person knows what was the temperature on the WHOLE globe; is the mother of all lies. Look at the GLOBAL temps charts, FROM BOTH CAMPS – from one year to next; goes up / down by a fraction of a degree = is a label / admission of immoral dishonesty. Both camps are using it, both are lying; but will not point the finger at each other regarding the ”biggest, basic lies” which is; code of silence / thief’s /criminal’s honor.
In any normal science is considered any new hypothesis / theory; maybe something has being overlooked. In ”climatology” on the other hand – real theory / proofs are categorically, instantly discarded; any Freudian would have interpreted that as ”admission that they know that they are wrong / lying” That makes it a double crime. Usually, nobody is correct 100%, and nobody is wrong 100%; unless you are a Fundamentalist Warmist / Fake Skeptic, Time is against the Hansen’s & Plimer’s GLOBAL warmings crap. Both are equally traitors of humanity and human honesty / integrity
Mr. Stefanthedenier, you are clearly accurate about your name.
Usually, nobody is correct 100%…usually this statement would be true too.
Six psychological strategies that communicators can use to bolster the recognition of climate change as a moral imperative.
No communication strategy will work when the message is false => http://bit.ly/HnYPQf
It is pure waste.
So what you’re saying is that based on the available data, the global warming alarmists’ description of the head of a dog based on the inner portion on its tail that covers is arse and gets crapped on is pure nonesense, right?
A study of the Earth’s albedo (project “Earthshine”) shows that the amount of reflected sunlight does not vary with increases in greenhouse gases. The “Earthshine” data shows that the Earth’s albedo fell up to 1997 and rose after 2001.
What was learned is that climate change is related to albedo, as a result of the change in the amount of energy from the sun that is absorbed by the Earth. For example, fewer clouds means less reflectivity which results in a warmer Earth. And, this happened through about 1998. Conversely, more clouds means greater reflectivity which results in a cooler Earth. And this happened after 1998.
It is logical to presume that changes in Earth’s albedo are due to increases and decreases in low cloud cover, which in turn is related to the climate change that we have observed during the 20th Century, including the present global cooling. However, we see that climate variability over the same period is not related to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases.
Obviously, the amount of `climate forcing’ that may be due to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases is either overstated or countervailing forces are at work that GCMs simply ignore. GCMs fail to account for changes in the Earth’s albedo. Accordingly, GCMs do not account for the effect that the Earth’s albedo has on the amount of solar energy that is absorbed by the Earth.
________________
It also matters how much dust is in the atmosphere, where it is and how small the particles are.
If the location of where the chimneys changes from the US/Europe to China and SE Asia one would suppose the distribution of dust and cloud nucleation sites to change.
True, true in the meta-world it’s the sun, stupid; but, in the nano-world it the hypotenuse squared.
I am getting sick of these pseudo scientific articles exploring how best to brainwash me.
Clearly you are defective for life in the 21st centry…
Not defective…just realizing how scientists made him ignorant by trusting everything they said without checking it out himself.
Tooooo Late!!! :-)
It was already done looooooong before you were born with protection of theories without understanding ALL of our planets parameters.
Velocity happen to be a massive area of study missed that effects every molecule, planet sun etc. From the core to orbits, velocity was never mapped or measured ….. until now!
They’ll tease you with a cheeseburger and then tell you how bad it is for you.
The proper response being: Thank them for the cheeseburger and fart as you leave the room.
True, true the EPA is not conrolling these emissions yet.
Give them time.
They did float a proposal for a methane tax on beef and dairy cattle.
What I “love” about their determination that CO2 is a pollutant is that they just gave themselves the ability to regulater every single person in the US, as we are all walking point sources of pollution now. When it comes time to thin the herd, I wonder if they will implement a lottery system or come up with a complex matrix that determines who contributes aand therefore has the right to “pollute through continued breathing and who doesn’t.
We’e all just fleas on a floater waiting for the big flush…
William Cowper, ‘Lines Written During a Period of Insanity:’
Hard lot! encompassed with a thousand dangers;
Weary, faint, trembling with a thousand terrors;
I’m called, if vanished, to receive a sentence
Worse than Abraham’s.*
*Rebelling agains the authority of Moses, with his fellow dissidents,he was swallowed up in a cleft of rock.
“Is it purely to do with perceived scale of responsibility?”
How amusing. I think it has more to do with don’t tax me, don’t tax thee, tax that man behind the tree. Bob and Tom could do a skit on this one for mr obvious. This sort of insight ranks right up there with the previous paper where epidemics are scary stories and global warming is real. I suppose this is because millions have died from global warming and as far as we know nobody has died from epidemics. Or do I have those mixed up?
We’re all moral beings, even scientists, engineers and mathematicians. But I don’t know of any training they receive that qualifies to instruct the public on moral issues. In professional societies it might be regarded as a boundary violation — comparable to that of a priest advising on the steel beams needed for a bridge.
I think I might look to religious leaders for moral judgement and mechanical engineers for advice on structures.
Philip Lee | April 29, 2012 at 12:52 am |
If there’s anything lower in the world than a moralist, you’re unlikely to find it.
Mathematicians have given the world the basic tools to build every work of architecture measurably greater than the nest a primate builds in a tree, the advanced tools to reach space and apprehend the visible universe from within a fraction of a second of its birth on a scale of planets and stars and the span light travels in more than ten billion years, and to explore far more expansive infinitessimals. From Game Theory (which is no game) to Chaos Theory (which brings some order to thought about chaos), neither of which is so much theory as description of the shape of number itself fitted to the human mind, to simplest arithmetic of accounting and auditing and actuary, Mathematicians have handed us some of our greatest moral gains.
Scientists have bridged gaps in understanding to delve the mysteries of disease, more than doubling the average human lifespan worldwide by little more than knowledge alone, have uncovered the causes and remedies of ten thousand thousand maladies and risks, means to puncture mere superstition and bring down walls of ignorance and malice, insights into how very nearly connected and related every human being is rather than the vague and ignorant philosophies of moralists who labelled some higher and some lower and called that unproven stance ‘science’.
Engineers have built communication devices able to link every human voice and eye on the planet, the technical means to give safe drinking water to every human mouth within the next decade, to deliver hygiene and to transport goods and to extend our grasp so far as our reach.
Moralist have done what, again? Made edicts, embraced hand-waved suppositions, terrorized and excused, fueled hatreds and incited feuds?
Was it the presidency of a scientific genius that brought the USA down so low as to make state torture a policy of the executive office? A mathematical wizard? An engineering wunderkind? No. It was a man who went every Sunday and sat like a pharisee at the front of his congregation, before the eyes of the world, and pretended to a morality handed down from on high.
I think we might look to religious leaders to copy the morals at least of those who build something useful, or who seek to know something true, or want to understand something worthy.
It was the moralist that gave us the law (Moses); another gave us hope of salvation outside of the law (Jesus); another gave us a framework for government founded on the basis that power derives from the consent of the governed (Jefferson). Moralists have given us examples on which some order their lives — Luther, King, Gandhi,
But Newton has nothing to instructs on how we should conduct ourselves in a moral manner.
Some Greens make moral arguments along the lines of needing to minimize the use of resources so that they are available to others (morality of unselfishness). If you don’t recognize the moral context and reply as a scientist, you’ll have no meeting of the minds.
While moral discussions have their place, it would not be among a collection of moral illiterates. So, who here has the training?
As I recall from the movie, Moses was a soldier, architect and engineer, and when tasked to deliver moral codes tried to decline.
And a carpenter does build useful things.
Martin Luther set off dozens of wars over a few turns of phrase important in no practical way, that did not feed, clothe, shelter, cure, heal, educate or protect a single hair on the head of one person ever.
Martin Luther King, a great man and a graduate in sociology (a soft science, but a science nonetheless), was killed by another ‘moralist’ who never did a whit of math, science or engineering.
George Washington was a surveyor, and Thomas Jefferson a man of notably questionable personal morals in later life (which is no one’s business but his and his family’s) was, in early life an avid student of science and mathematics.
And if you’re pretending the lawyer — and soldier — and later pacifist Gandhi (also assassinated by moralists) would have agreed with any two words you have said in a row, you’re doing a terrible job of convincing me of it by minimizing, demonizing and advocating against people of great learning and service in favor of assassins, warmongers and hypocrits.
Vart.R, you’re making a great mistake to presume I was trying to convince you of anything — it is a flaw of character to personalize a discussion.
For the rest of you, to ignore the moral failing of murder while listing a person as a moralist seems a bit much. On the other hand to claim a preacher was a scientist because of a undergraduate degree is really a leap that I can’t take.
So.. a scientist who’s a good communicator, he’s a moralist, not a scientist?
But a moralist who’s also a murderer, he’s just a murderer?
I’m a flawed character all over the place, and acknowledge it; your reasoning, however, is more flawed still, apologizing for the failings of morality itself while hypocritically holding down science, mathematics and engineering after all the far more spectacular positive good they’ve done in the world than all moralism ever has or ever will.
Any person is responsible for their moral failing. But being educated as a scientist doesn’t make you one any more that not receiving a scientific education prevent you from being one.
It is what you do that determines what you are. And moralist have added much to our lives by their work. But it is a rare person that can contribute at a high enough level to be view as a serious contributor to moral thought and science, engineering, mathematics, art, literature, etc.
If you are a scientist, you might be cited as proving my point — you’ve just failed morally by corrupting my argument (“apologizing for the failings of morality itself while hypocritically holding down science”) to a point I didn’t make.
I’ll repeat, scientist who pronounces outside their field may be committing a boundary violation. I don’t moral judgments from scientists any more than I want preachers to tell me what is right in science (rare individuals excepting).
Moralists have added what now to who?
If any person is responsible for their own moral failing, how then is a moralist necessary or advantageous? If they cannot be blamed for the failing, they can take no credit for the success.
What uplifts indeed is not moralizing, but knowledge and the seeking of it. No one doing that is acting as a moralist in that moment. Judging scientists’ boundary violations on speculation, that’s not a ‘may be’ but an patent presumption of guilt. You don’t need anyone to corrupt your arguments. They do just fine for themselves, by reductio ad absurdum.
I too don’t want moral pronouncements from scientists. I prefer science from scientists and everyone responsible for their own morality alone.
Professor Curry,
I think these people do not distinguish the terms well. They seem to be in some confusion over “morals”, “values”, and “interests”.
A piece of junk is what it is..
what about “truth”?
Wagathon,
Thank you for your comment
Indeed. “truth” didn’t make the cut.
However, I think we can talk about it under “Morals”, since morals are about good vs bad. They are what people feel are good and evil.
Right and wrong. “Some things are just wrong to do”
Values, no the other hand, are about things such as ideals that we hold dear…perhaps public secular education could be used as example You value it or rate it highly – or you do not. Whether you do value public education or not, does not tell us your morals. Perhaps you do not value it because you think it’s not the best thing we could devise. That’s not necessarily being “bad”.
“Interests” would be what you feel benefits you or it’s your wants or your needs.
So in this way, at times interests might trump values or even morals.
Here’s where these salesmen enter the picture.
“what about “truth”?”
Indeed.
Since good and bad wrt truth can be argued, I think it’s not a moral issue. For instance, one could justify lying for the good of saving a person’s life or even to ease their pain or buffer a shock.
What is left is to pinpoint where their values were trumped by their interests. They value truth per se apparently under certain conditions only, conditions which are not extant at this time.
At the very least, they horribly discount or overlook the possibility of an audience’s need for an appearance of truthfulness as being a prime element in the successful transmission of their message.
David Appell | April 28, 2012 at 8:35 pm
That’s not a bug … that’s a feature.
w.
David Appell
Was there incentive for the change from horse drawn cart to cars?
Was there incentive for the change from gramophones to CDs?
(touches Girma)…”BEER!”
Thank you!
Mr. Orssengo, to answer both your questions, yes, historically, very much so.
The question is, what government every payed horse owners to use horses by taxing car owners, horse breeders to breed horses by taxing car manufacturers, gave research grants for improving transportation technology to the horse race industry while putting control of improving automobiles in the hands of the same people, and subsidized hay by taxing everyone else?
See, that’s the parallel situation today. The automobile was actively supported by what were called infant industry exceptions. Many states and national governments had them. France, the UK and Germany were infamous for them. America certainly did it.
The problem is, those exceptions — many of them, and many new since, besides — continue to this very day as loopholes, discouraging new technology by making us all poorer through taxes and also poorer in decision power, by using the state’s power to funnel our money to that one set of choices in what ought be a free market, creating a significant double barrier to entry of new alternatives.
You really don’t know this?
Please enlighten me about ‘infant industry exceptions’ for cars in the UK.
Latimer Alder | April 29, 2012 at 2:43 am |
The UK has some sort of wonky class system that makes comparison of its economics to the real world irrelevant.
When we talk about an economy, we talk about America for a reason.
OK – you’re entitled to your opinion about the ‘class system’ in the UK. Though I think you may have been watching rather too much Hollywood and not leavened it with enough actual reality.
But it was you who made the observation that the UK was infamous for ‘infant industry exceptions’. As I have never heard of these in relation to the car industry, I invited you to expand a little.
Is it now the case that you cannot back up this claim, and I should treat it with as much credence as your remarks about UK economics?
Ah, you mean such as Leyland (though that was more a case of criminal tax dodging by Clarence Hatrey than intentional infant industry subsidy, it had much the same effect in the end, except for Hatrey’s little stint in prison), more than of course the much later Heath nationalization of Rolls Royce (though hardly an ‘infant’, more in its dotage) to prevent its bankruptcy?
You’d be wanting to read the scribblings of Ha Joon Chang on that topic.
There certainly were a lot of strange government interventions in the UK car industries in the 1960s and 1970s. I
But your post specifically referred to ‘infant’ industry exceptions. by then the industry was ‘mature’…had consolidated down from hundreds of independent manufacturers into three large groups Ford, Vauxhall/GM, BL and a few smaller ones. And was producing several million vehicles per year.
It was not an ‘infant’ industry..the whole supposed purpose of the interventions was to safeguard an industry that had become a very large and very important part of the national economy in terms of value, exports and employment.
Whatever the rights and wrongs of these interventions, they were not ‘infant industry exceptions’.
You are, of course, perfectly entitled to take whatever view you like of the UK. But it might be good if that view was occasionally leavened with some facts rather than only with throwaway disobligements.
BTW the UK car industry is now in pretty good shape…but under different ownership and a different management regime from the highly interventionist days.
@Bart R
I mentioned the need for some leavening of facts in your view of the UK.
Clarence Hatrey (of whom I had never previously heard) was a fraudulent financier who went broke – and to prison – in 1928. He had no connections whatsoever with the then very small Leyland Motors.
The Heath government did not nationalise Rolls Royce because of any problems within the car side of the business, but because of the difficulties with the development of the RB211 aeroengine. The car division was sold as a separate entity (Rolls Royce Motors) within two years to remove it from government control, while the aeroengine part continued as a nationalised industry for another fourteen years until eventually being sold as Rolls Royce plc.
RR plc now makes a highly successful range of jet engines with over 50,000 units in service with over 500 airlines.
You and I might well agree that government interventions in industry are not generally good things, But using overblown rhetoric about ‘wonky class systems’ and easily refuted ‘facts’ to back them up weakens rather than strengthens your case.
Latimer Alder | April 30, 2012 at 1:36 am |
You’ve got it exactly right.
For reasons of palatability, tradition, and other excuses for deception, mere protectionism (with all its nasty connotations) and statism were perversely dressed up in a baby bonnet and called infant industry measures, well past the juvenile delinquency stage of corporate development. The nanny state just couldn’t help itself in socialist Europe.
But for the UK, and other European states, that’s expected. But the USA is the bastion of the free market, and so for our politicians to be inflicting it on American firms, to be bailing out US companies, is inexcusable.
We’d be stronger and better if we were leaner and meaner. By which I most emphatically do not mean Ryan Houck’s brand of fail.
Read up on the problem of horse manure removal from city streets – which was regarded as a major and intractable problem towards the end of the 19th century.
Peter317 | April 29, 2012 at 9:34 am |
When every man of means owned a horse or a team, cities were limited in size to what extent the civic leaders could contrive to cart away the manure. Sure. But as a limits of growth problem, once the manure was captured and treated it reduced or sequestered rapidly and advantageously for fertilizer.
Conversely, there is a limit too to cities by the extent civic leaders can arrange parking and freeways, that even though it is many times larger per city still is a limit, yet a parked car or one sitting idle in a traffic jam is no good to anyone.
Wiser to have kept the horse, made cities smaller, improved bicycles for horse-free corridors and invested in telecommuting and mass transit.
Bart, if horses were only used by well-heeled members of society, how do you imagine goods were transported around? How do you think cities came about in the first place, if not for the difficulty and expense involved in moving goods and people over distances, and the consequent migration of people to where work and access to goods were?
And do you really think the size of cities etc was controlled by politicians?
As for using manure for fertilizer, what do you think happened when the laws of supply and demand kicked in and the bottom dropped out of the market, which it inevitably did? That’s right, it simply piled up anywhere and everywhere, becoming a massive health hazard.
Those who don’t learn from history…
Peter317 | April 29, 2012 at 11:05 am |
Who said ‘only’?
Who said politicians? When I think of leaders, I generally think of leaders in engineering and science — in this case civil engineers.
A railway a hundred years ago could as economically move goods as a railway today, give or take, and concentration of goods in warehouses was and remains an expensive cul de sac in logistics: far better were less concentration of goods and less lag between production and consumption possible due better communications and understanding of markets. The solutions of problems didn’t come through the automobile — they were delayed by the automobile.
While the size of cities was determined by decisions of short-sighted planners, it’s no more as if there was a degree of control than when some wonder if human influence of climate implies human control over weather. (Silly thing to think.)
And when manure ‘simply piled up’, was that not an indication disposal of the waste ought have been priced, and the owners of horses made to pay fees for the costs they imposed on all? Sounds to me more like a failure of government to apply capitalism on (literally) free riders, than the fault of the horse.
Those who think the study of history ever taught anything about problem solving are doomed to have their problems fester just the same.
You want a decent technician.
Bart, what makes you think it was the owners of the horses who were responsible? As with today’s swingeing fuel taxes (at least in Europe), the consumer’s ended up paying the price, as food, goods and services became more expensive, and, in effect, everyone owing everyone else.
If you believe you have all the answers then why don’t you run for President?
And as for your quaint faith in electric vehicles, well, over a hundred years later we still don’t have the technology required to deliver on the required scale and at an affordable price. And, at the end of the day, where do you think the energy for electric vehicles comes from in the first place?
As for public transport being a panacea, just imagine the hopelessly overcrowded conditions on a typical morning bus or train being multiplied by ten to twenty times. And who would pay the necessary small army of bus and train drivers to sit around twiddling their thumbs during off-peak periods?
Peter317 | April 29, 2012 at 12:34 pm |
I can see you don’t like the Jeffersonian vision of a plan for America that furnished all good things in their most advantageous role to all good people by their democratic decision power in a fair and stable marketplace under capitalist principles.
You prefer the shakey table of markets determined by the heavy hand of state empowered unelected committees of plutocrats, bureaucrats, technocrats, demagogues and ideologues, based on your premise.
We’ll always disagree over that preference. However, with your attitudes, I believe you’d have a great chance if you ran for President, in today’s America.
Bart, and I see you don’t have the answers – hence the hand-waving.
Why would I seek to replace Jefferson’s answers with my own?
You think there are no thumb-twiddling gas station attendants? That gasoline is the one and only source of all energy? That burning is the best use of the versatile wonder resource that we make plastic, pharmaceuticals, fertilzer and many other industrial chemicals from?
You keep asking such wrong questions, how don’t you expect people to wave at you?
*wave* Hello? *wave*wave* Earth to Peter317? *wave* What are you thinking? *wave*
Just a hunch, but I would bet the city’s modern population of pets produces a similar tonnage of waste each day.
JCH,
Tell you what, speaking as an urban (not urbane) dog owner, how ’bout you offer your services to a horse riding stable and agree to follow their horses around with a suitablely sized plastic bag.
The reason you do that is people were sick and tired of stepping in dog poop. Urban carriages today have a bag system that is supposed to catch the horsey poop. The automobile delayed the progress of stuff management by a full century.
JCH, you don’t appreciate scale, do you? Dog poop is completely insignificant in comparison.
As for your comment about delaying progress of stuff management, the same could be said about the discovery of bronze delaying the progress of stone tools.
http://www.uctc.net/access/30/Access%2030%20-%2002%20-%20Horse%20Power.pdf
A fun read.
Now.. why does it seem familiar somehow?
Bart, one minor thing missing from your analogy…
After only a few years, people actually wanted to own cars because they were a real improvement over the displaced technology.
John M | April 29, 2012 at 10:18 am |
By and large, the cars people originally wanted to own were electric, and by a fair margin, until military needs mandated internal combustion for its greater power in military theaters of operation, and uniformity of supply through mass production to make maintenance of a war effort practical.
At the time, the electrics were the real improvement, until the government stepped in and made a decision for wartime that spilled over into peacetime and effectively shuttered the electric manufacturers.
I concur, Schumpeter’s “creative destruction” comes to mind.
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Schumpeter.html
“Innovation by the entrepreneur, argued Schumpeter, leads to gales of “creative destruction” as innovations cause old inventories, ideas, technologies, skills, and equipment to become obsolete. The question is not “how capitalism administers existing structures, … [but] how it creates and destroys them.” This creative destruction, he believed, causes continuous progress and improves the standards of living for everyone.”
kakatoa | April 29, 2012 at 10:41 am |
Every improvement has a context. In the chaos of history, had some wars been delayed or defered a decade or two, advances in a peacetime context in electric cars due greater investment and tinkering may have meant the original Jeep would have run on fuel cells or batteries.
We never get to know ‘what if’, really. Now, with nanotech and metamaterials coming on, what happens in society will shape what innovations they are applied to. Personally, I’d rather the peacetime innovations over the military ones. They tend to come in better colors and don’t have to sacrifice cup holders for weapon mounts.
Though, really, how likely is that?
Bart,
You’re a good sport, but you have a proclivity to invent your own way of interpreting facts and history. Whether it’s your one man effort to redefine “subsidy”, your response to Latimer Adler elsewhere in the thread to define your own meaning for “an economy”, or here where you attribute the decline of electric vehicles, sales of which peaked in 1912, to the impact of US military policy during WWI. Not conicidentally, Charles Kettering invented the electric starter for gasoline powered vehicles in 1912.
Here are a couple of more “mainstream” looks at the early history of electric vehicles.
http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/223/electric-car-timeline.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_electric_vehicle
Funny, in neither one do I see a reference to WWI impact.
John M | April 29, 2012 at 11:01 am |
Necessity is the mother of invention. The failure of others’ interpretations are manifest; if my hypothesis is wrong, I’m perfectly content to examine it again and reject it if it proves as flawed as the .. say what?
Redefine subsidy? I must admit, I’ve been using the simpler term ‘subsidy’ in place of a pastiche of technically more accurate terms like ‘deadweight loss’. You can look that one up and tell me how badly I’m redefining it, too.
And while a half hour between PBS and wikipedia may make one an expert historian, it takes a little more time comparing what an electric car with the investment that backed the internal combustion industry would have looked like by 1912, and a little more digging to understand who invested what in the automobile in those early days. Especially, it is difficult as the auto industry has been busily shredding its historical records (other than those approved by its legal department) from its start.
While I’m sure PBS and wikipedia are sincere, they’re blowing smoke without such documentary evidence about a topic that has always surrounded itself in fog and misdirection.
Bart, Bart, Bart,
It should be clear to even you that the only reason electric cars got any use whatsoever in the early 20th century was for local transportation. Then, as now, long haul trips were just not possible with electric only.
I note in passing that your own argument seems to be that cities should have stuck with manure-generating horses for city transportation, which if they’d followed your advice, means the electric car would have never gotten any sales.
You can invent all the terms you want and minimize my research skills to your heart’s content, but the fact remains that electric cars died in the early 20th century because they were an inferior technology, not because of any “subsidies”, however you may want to define the term.
And about those research skills…I assume you’ve come up with a citation for those “military needs” that killed the electric car?
John M | April 29, 2012 at 12:57 pm |
Citations here? Not without prompting a maelstrom of postings about the military-industrial complex, Eisenhower, and the metal content of the sun, no.
I respectfully decline to go further down that path at this time.
However, I may hint that the USA was not the only, nor even the first, nation of the automobile.
America’s drive for domestic electric transportation as part of an integrated whole with rail, water and air was disrupted in the earliest days of the 20th century by European ideas and teachings that conflicted with American ideals, disrupted a course of action that began with Jefferson, led to at first a fad for splendid isolationism and then caving in to an appetite for spilling American blood on alien soils in foreign adventures.
If you only learn the history taught by schoolteachers, poets and politicians, well.. it’s not as if history is all that instructive, objective or particularly factual in any event.
“America’s drive for domestic electric transportation as part of an integrated whole with rail, water and air was disrupted in the earliest days of the 20th century by European ideas and teachings that conflicted with American ideals”
This from a guy who says “When we talk about an economy, we talk about America for a reason.”
Bart’s World— “a citation-free zone”.
John M | April 29, 2012 at 1:30 pm |
Wow. Opinion now seems split between I cite not at all, I cite too little, I cite weakly, I cite irrelevantly, I cite too much, and then there are those who read the links I provide for a half a paragraph and claim they mean the opposite of their conclusions.
Dude, my name is a link. Click it. From there, there are dozens of links. They’re not about this, of course, but they pretty much puncture your cite-free fantasy.
Try again.
“Try again.”
Sure. Your words:
“Citations here? Not without prompting a maelstrom of postings about the military-industrial complex, Eisenhower, and the metal content of the sun, no.
I respectfully decline to go further down that path at this time.”
Yes, I well remember the tax on whale oil that got markets to invest in petroleum. And the tax on horses that brought about the automobile; the tax on candles that led to electric lights; the tax on adding machines that brought forth the computer; the tax on hoola hoops that led directly to pet rocks. And so on.
David Appell…Super Genius.
NW | April 29, 2012 at 1:31 am |
You appear confused.
The tax on whale oil got the markets to invest in larger whaling fleets; war brought on the internal combustion engine’s supremacy in the automobile market, because army’s wanted one single uniform standard and petroleum had excellent energy density, plus a military had little concern for the downsides of oil considering the alternative was someone with a different short-lifespan ideology winning; the tax on doors supported the electric light (or in the British Empire, on closets), and the computer was brought on by the tax on textiles.
Glad to clear those up for you.
You’ve misunderstood me Bart. I was just spinning out the implications of David Appell’s economic theory of innovation incentives. As he has so much confidence in his theory of innovation, I should be able to successfully make up facts for him.
Oh, I understood. But you said ‘pet rock’. How could I resist joining in the fun?
(More practically, it may be that you and David are nearer each other in opinion than you may suspect.)
We call that a misfeature.
Sort of like custom definitions.
Give a specter like ‘global warming’ a name is like naming a child in the womb. With the name the idea is given substance and becomes a living thing like a tree upon which the ornaments are then hung. And, so too follow all of the usual claims about it: (1) first are born and nursed claims based on a belief by a select group of experts; (2) then comes the list of what some experts simply deem to be facts obvious to all as a matter of common sense (e.g., as obvious and rock solid as a glass greenhouse); (3) in a short while we are then treated to unassailable logical deductions that come from a growing expert culture of insiders (a veritable circle-jerk of sycophants); and (4), we finally arrive at the point where we have the unquestioned thoughts about reality that flow from the bearded brains of Über experts–i.e., effete snobs of Western civilization who in their hubris and unctuous disdain of the vulgar lot of the rest of us simply anoint their own thoughts as somehow totally representative of what should be a worldwide view of all things related to their special baby.
It was difficult for me to read the paper without concluding that their ‘product’ was just the same old unadulterated crap but that they hoped to improve its sales with new marketing and a sexier advertising campaign. ‘Morality’ coming from these guys sounds like a cheap perfume aimed at teenage girls.
But marketing and advertising won’t change the fundamental weaknesses of the propositions they offer.
I like your poem, Chief,
‘detritus of experience … or wait for the next ice age?’ )
Sometimes it’s hard to separate past and present. I do the washing up, usually in a fit of abstraction, work plans I enjoy, there’s a kind of optimism about the future and objectivity, a disengagement from yourself.
Living, really ‘living’ in the present? When you joke with someone and you both git it- a miracle! Dancing with kids does it for me, responding intently to music or getting caught in rain, present moment. But so much else and there’s what you bring to it. Look at blossom on a tree? Chekhov’s Cherry Orchard comes to mind. Stare at the ocean and I might think of Robert Frost .
I guess I just can’t figure it out.
Snorkelling over a coral flat is the most perfect moment for me. A perfect fusion of the physical and spiritual.
Fergit apocalypse and fergit the coffee grounds on the floor, go for epiphany, lol.
Chief and Beth
I’d go for the sound of skis on crisp fresh snow or the crashing of waves on the sea wall-like this morning for the latter
tonyb
So a summary:-
1 We deceive you.
2 You don’t believe us!
3 What’s wrong with you?
I suggest the psychologists who prepared this psychobabble seek immediate treatment, although sadly they may well be untreatable.
Stacey | April 29, 2012 at 5:17 am |
More conventionally in political circles, “Act surprised; express concern; deny, deny, deny; demand an apology; campaign as a champion of the issue.”
Though I suspect opinions continue to vary as to whom commits which.
How about credible, verifiable evidence that the proposed courses of actions make both environmental and economic sense for those who actually have to pay for the proposed actions?
Do you believe that all the suggested responses make sense? What means do you suggest be utilized to ascertain the optimal responses given the fact that there are very limited resources available?
Rob Starkey | April 29, 2012 at 10:58 am |
How about you, deciding for you, paying the price for the benefits you receive and facing the consequences of the decisions you make when you make them?
Is there anyone better to decide for you, than you, on such a basis?
Put a price of the carbon cycle, charge a fee determined by the law of supply and demand, pay the dividend to every citizen per capita as their birthright by simply being born breathing, and watch the innovation spring up to provide you with credible, verifiable solutions and credible, verifiable measures because money rides on it.
Then every individual can decide what suggested response makes sense for them. Let the law of supply and demand and the democracy of the fair market ascertain the optimal responses, as capitalism is meant to for limited resources.
Bart
A “carbon tax” as you propose would need to be evaluated based upon the specifics of the proposal in the nation where it is proposed for implementation. There are several points to consider, but generally they can be summarized in the idea of ensuring that the tax should be an efficient process of revenue generation and in this case also effectively reduce consumption of fossil fuels by the desired amount.
We have previously scene examples where a fossil fuel tax was highly ineffective in reducing consumption. It depends on the details.
If it was simply individuals deciding not to emit CO2, no tax is necessary
Bart
When you have written about putting a price on carbon that appears to be a tax. An example of where tax tax was imposed that did not meet the goal of reducing consumption of fossil fuel is Ireland.
If you wish to provide a link to your economic proposal for the US I would linke to read it.
Rob Starkey | April 29, 2012 at 12:59 pm |
Except I don’t propose a carbon tax. In fact, I oppose a carbon tax specifically.
Most especially, I reject the notion completely of general revenue generation by pricing the carbon cycle. The state’s pockets are no place to transfer the dividends of the air every citizen was born to breath. What a ludicrously dangerous precedent you suggest.
I’m unacquainted with the specifics of these previous failures you allude to — perhaps you mean scam-prone ETS systems, or the socialist complaints about carbon taxes that don’t dole out enough to the poor, or some such, but it’s so hard to tell with you, you’re so all over the map and vague.
Perhaps if you stuck to the specific thing I’m proposing, rather than fly around building straw man from pieces of other things?
Rob Starkey | April 29, 2012 at 1:29 pm |
While you _could_ click on my name, that leads to a long boring diatribe (surprising, I know).
I recommend instead http://www.citizensclimatelobby.org/ who speak much plainer, and as a bonus you can meet up with them in person, talk to them about their ideas and yours, and contribute to an actual solution on your own terms as a citizen. While I recommend examining that option, I’m not member or affiliate myself, not completely like-minded, nor endorsing them per se.
That would be for you to decide about yourself.
Bart
I reviewed what was posted @ http://www.citizensclimatelobby.org/files/images/FeeAndDividendLegProposal081811.pdf and the proposal makes little economic sense.
The link proposes to implement a “carbon fee” (which is nothing more than a carbon tax by a different name) and then adding an “Equal Monthly Per-Person Dividend” to try to offset the negative economic impact of the tax.
The concept of adding the dividend is a very administratively complex method (and thereby inefficient means) of providing a per capita refund of revenue collected. Additionally, the link also proposes to eliminate coal generated electricity regardless of whether it emits less CO2 than other means of generating electricity or not. That seems pretty short sighted.
Generally, it would make sense to impose an additional tax on gasoline (in the US in this example) if the level of the additional tax would be sufficient to get the public to adopt some alternate form of energy generation that would not emit CO2.
Bart- it is necessary to do the analysis and determine what alternative processes you wish to be utilized prior to implementing such a proposal. If you don’t, it is likely you are just advocating an inefficient method of taxation.
And to save you some clicking:
http://www.citizensclimatelobby.org/files/images/FeeAndDividendLegProposal081811.pdf
Which again I am not endorsing so much as pointing out is worth reading.
Rob Starkey | April 29, 2012 at 2:09 pm |
I have to guess your phone bill is a tax by a different name too? Your grocery bill? The bill you paid when you bought your house? Taxes are the opposite of prices. Prices put control of decisions in the fair market into the hands of buyers and sellers as individuals. Taxes reduce the democracy of the market by two means: directly replacing the spending decisions of individuals, and shrinking the size of the market itself. If you can’t see the distinction, spend a little less time hanging out with socialists; their thinking is starting to limit your vision.
Very administratively complex? Man, it’s how payroll adjustments are made already. That system already exists, is in place, tested and proven. It even reduces income tax churn to integrate with carbon pricing.
As I said, I don’t agree with the entire proposal; if you can burn coal without emitting CO2 at a price competitive with other means, then why shouldn’t you?
Is more paralysis by analysis needed? Dude, capitalism was invented how long ago? Proven the best system how many times? And you want to wait for something better to come along?
Bart, there is taxation as a form of raising money by which the government can operate, then there are taxes formulated to manipulate the free market. The first is necessary, the latter evil.
Bart
You appear to not accept the basics. Learn the difference between a tax (what you are suggesting) and a cost to obtain goods or to get someone to provide a service. (use of a telephone as an example). You are proposing a tax pure an simple. That is not necessarily a bad thing, but when you deny it, further exchange becomes difficult.
It is administratively complex and more expensive to administer than other taxes on several levels.
On the collection side it seems to involve the establishment of the fees or taxes on each product that emits CO2?
1. Who determines the amount of tax on each product or service? Is the tax the same on the company that produces cement as the one making fertilizer for farmers or the one that produces all the different types of automotive fuel?
2. Who oversees the administration of the establishment of the above described fee structure and is there an appeal process if a business believes the fees have been inappositely assessed.
On the rebate side, it would be pretty simple if it was just a rebate per household, but even that is added complexity and an added cost to administer. Why have an whole additional process to return money to taxpayers? Simply lower the tax rate and collect less if you want people to keep more of their money. Running it though the government is inherently inefficient.
What do I want to wait for? Simply proposals or technology that cost effectively make sense. If products make sense people will buy or use them.
Bart- here is a very basic question–do you have a worldwide per capita CO2 emissions target that all should adhere to at some point?
Rob Starkey | April 29, 2012 at 5:06 pm |
You appear to not accept the basics. Learn the difference between a tax (what you are suggesting) and a cost to obtain goods or to get someone to provide a service. (use of a telephone as an example). You are proposing a tax pure an simple. That is not necessarily a bad thing, but when you deny it, further exchange becomes difficult.
Let’s look at this quibble.
Per Black’s Law Dictionary, “a tax Is any contribution imposed by government upon individuals, for the use and service of the state,”
And for the difference of the way economists see tax:
“From the view of economists, a tax is a non-penal, yet compulsory transfer of resources from the private to the Public sector levied on a basis of predetermined criteria and without reference to specific benefit received.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax
Not what I’m talking about: the state takes nothing in the form of revenue for its own use and service, at all, and you pay for the CO2E you use, no more. You don’t incur CO2E, you pay nothing. See? Not a tax by any definition. You keep calling things by their wrong names, you’ll end up being called Daisy.
For what it’s worth, ‘price’ is, “A value that will purchase a definite quantity, weight, or other measure of a good or service.. As the consideration given in exchange for transfer of ownership, price forms the essential basis of commercial transactions.” http://www.businessdictionary.com
See? Not tax, price. What’s so hard about using the right word?
It is administratively complex and more expensive to administer ..
On the collection side it seems to involve the establishment of the fees .. on each product that emits CO2?
1. Who determines the amount ..?..
2. Who oversees the administration of the establishment of the above described fee structure and is there an appeal process if a business believes the fees have been inappositely assessed.
I recommend starting, as the CCL appears to endorse, the way British Columbia does it: use the CO2E inventory to determine CO2E levels of goods to be used to produce emissions. That gives you the basis for proportion of price per unit of each good. From there, let the law of Supply and Demand fix the price. Let the price rise until the revenue total of the next price rise exceeds the revenue total of the previous one. (Naturally, a good merchandiser can estimate this rather than by crude direct experimentation in the market.) See? The democracy of the market controls the price.
On the rebate side, it would be pretty simple if it was just a rebate per household, but even that is added complexity and an added cost to administer.
Rebate? No, no. _Dividend_. It’s money that belongs to people, not to the government. They have no authority to keep it, so no means to call it a rebate. Why do you want to keep mixing up your terms?
Also, who said per household? I said per capita. What do households have to do with anything? If you’re a citizen, you breath. If you breath, you have a birthright to the air. CCL wants it to be a payroll thing, and if that floats their boat, who am I to judge them? If they want to steal from the unemployed, children and the elderly, that’s really their concern, not mine. Their proposal is at least less theft than happens now.
Why have an whole additional process to return money to taxpayers? Simply lower the tax rate and collect less if you want people to keep more of their money. Running it though the government is inherently inefficient.
Ahhh. I see what you’re after, now. You want to reduce taxes some ham-handed way using this one product as your whipping boy. Well that’s just plain nuts. Expand the size of the market by pricing CO2E, for one thing, taxes immediately drop as a ratio of the GDP, so you get what you want either way. It’s still incorrect to call pricing goods ‘tax’, however, and if you really want to cut taxes, then cut taxes honestly and directly, not by some subterfuge. I recommend you start by reducing spending, such as tax holidays for fossil fuel based businesses.
What do I want to wait for? Simply proposals or technology that cost effectively make sense. If products make sense people will buy or use them.
And the other shoe drops. You want taxes to drop, but _someday_, as opposed to _now_. When the stars align, and technology is perfected. When everyone agrees and no one dissents. When the committees all reach accord and the .. what a crappy do nothing attitude, I must say.
Get ‘er done. Move on.
do you have a worldwide per capita CO2 emissions target that all should adhere to at some point?
Nope. Why seek to replace the judgment of the genius of the fair market with my own?
Why do you seek to replace fair market democratic choice with yours?
Tony b,
Join our epiphany club!! Life’s too short for apocalypse *&^%$
I was reading David Appell’s attempt to link costs and benefits as estimated it seems by one or other of the agenda pushing urgers messing about with this whole issue.
The thought struck me, can a similar process of cost and benefit be applied to Climatology “science” and the cost/waste calculated over the past 20 years, and the likely cost to be borne if we continue to follow the rabbit holes created, in pursuit of something, that is increasingly looking like a failed strategy, built on blind acceptance of some shaky modeling projections.
Now, what is the benefit to defunding that branch of science and shifting money to innovation and invention providing low cost clean and abundant energy of the future. Those diverted funds would create one hell of a sought after prize/incentive (Hat tip to CH) to fund well targeted and beneficial science, like actually providing upgraded forecasting of weather and accurate weather warning to save lives. (remember that noble objective)?
I am sure that someone could come up with other beneficial prizes and compelling cost benefit in making this change. Once that is done and dusted, the precautionary principle would add weight to politically and urgently bringing in this complete solution. There would be many potential spin off benefits.
Might even lead to scientists opening their research to a new peer scrutiny as they vie for the pragmatic prizes.
There are many, many incentive programs. They always in in a catch that you need a company to back you no matter what new innovation is created.
Pretty hard to find a company when most love the subsidies they are receiving. Free money for bad technology.
Considerate thinker says:
That is the moral and ethical dilemma that most of you people can’t seem to acknowledge. You seem to want to punish climate scientists, yet want the rewards that comes out of basic research.
Every scientific research article always begins with a preamble by the authors stating why the research they are doing is important. This usually isn’t very long but is in there to remind the reader that someone funded the research for a specific reason, or that the author believes in the research as important.
So, implicit in every climate science article is the following viewpoint (though not this bluntly stated) — Studying climate science is important because every living person has to deal with the environment, and the society as a whole will always have to adapt to whatever changes the future climate will confront us with. Moreover, there is the realization that the climate and environment can provide us with a potential source of renewable energy in the future. Only reactionaries would actually believe that non-renewable energy resources such as fossil fuels would last forever (see this delusionary bit for example). The possibilities for harvesting energy from wind, solar, hydroelectric, geothermal, tidal, amongst other pathways is still open, and every bit of climate research has the potential for payback. Knowledge builds in layers of successive discoveries.
Perhaps I have been indoctrinated, but I always thought that this was the reason that we funded the space program. The ultimate goal was kind of lofty, yet the amount of payback we got out of NASA and the space program over the years was amazing. Same goes for DARPA and other research spin-offs.
The fact that most of you can’t detect the vital bit of marketing blurb and trash-talking competitiveness of scientists out to discover the next greatest thing is actually kind of pathetic. For some reason, it is considered OK if Steve Jobs does this kind of marketing, but when it comes to a nation trying to protect its vital interests, it suddenly is bad. (Why do you people hate America?)
So read that quote again at the top by “Considerate thinker”. He says that we need to embark on “defunding that branch of science and shifting money to innovation and invention providing low cost clean and abundant energy of the future”. This makes absolutely no sense because what is being funded is fundamental research that will provide a pathway to exactly that kind of future. I have no clue as to what the thinker is complaining about. Fundamental research is hard, and if one could pinpoint it as “innovation and invention” without the fundamental research behind it, you basically have discovered a magic formula for success.
We should be aware that this psychobabble is another step toward pathologizing dissent, as it happened in the old Soviet Union. It has been going on for several years. See for example http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php?/site/article/6320 The new “field” of “ecopsychology” has even sprung up.
Pathologizing dissent, along with plain old intimidation, are the tools of totalitarians.
Interesting how AGW scientists are trying to use psychology to force people into following a really bad theory and so called science behind it. No actual physical proof needed, just trust.
Let me put this at the bottom of the discussion, and start again.
Steven Mosher | April 28, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Reply
You are confused.
1. sensitivity is defined as the increase in temperature given an increase in forcing in watts.
For example: If the sun increased by 1 watt, what would the increase in temperature be. Lets start with that.
There are two questions.
1. What is the sensitivity ( response) in C, to an increase in forcinging (Watts) This figure is INDEPENDENT of the source of the forcing.
@@@@@@@@@@@
The sentence I want to concentrate on is
” This figure is INDEPENDENT of the source of the forcing.”
If the proponents of CAGW are correct, and the value for the no-feedback climate sensitivity for a doubling of CO2 is around 1 C, then this statement is incorrect. The estimation of climate sensitivity using the so-called Planck method specificly assumes that “the structure of the atmosphere does not change”. This is interpreted to mean that one can estimate this climate sensitivity by ONLY looking at radiation effects. It also assumes that the lapse rate does not change.
This assumption has never been validated. But it means that the proponents of CAGW claim that the estimate of climate sensitivity for a doubling of CO2 is a special case. A case where the lapse rate does not change. If the lapse rate changes as result of the forcing, the effect on surface temperatures is very different than if the lapse rate does not change.
So we need to differentiate sensitivity changes to two different classes of events. One where the lapse rate changes and one where it does not. So Steven’s statement , striclty speaking, is incorrect. And this really matters.
I can see now why the Nature Publishing Group created this publication. Even they knew that they couldn’t afford to poison their Golden Goose nameplate even more than it is now by publishing this opinion piece in Nature itself.
But without slopping through the “wetland” of words, this beauty stood out:
I wonder how much of their grant money they spent pondering that one.
All they really had to do was google the phrase “raisiing other people’s taxes”.
So basically this is a bunch of psychologists trying to work out ways of telling lies so that we will swallow them hook line and sinker. I suppose I could have wrapped that up in pyscho babble but I just couldn’t be bothered…..
Yes!
in 1950 the world had half the population it
does now, it was using
1/4 of the energy it does now, and CO2 was increasing at roughly
half
the rate it does now. Assuming that all of the increase is due to
humans,, by cutting back on energy use by 7/8 we
wouldn’t be ELIMINATING any human caused CO2 increase, we’d just be
slowing down the increase to 1950 levels. I don’t think you’ll find
anyone in the world willing to cut back energy use by 7/8.
For Kyoto to be effective, we’d have
to cut back CO2 productionon by 80 to 100%.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20332352-601,00.html
Since I am prejudiced in favor of driving the 10 miles to work rather than walking or biking, since I plan to continue to use my microwave to warm my dinners, turn on electricity to read the paper, to continue watching TV in the evenings, and to continue wasting energy by making posts to usenet, ,by traveling around to visit friends and relatives,and see interesting places., and since i I have no intention of living like a 15th
century peasant, cutting back on CO2 production is not for me.. Billions of people would have to DIE in order for the
planet to be able to support anyone in a 15th century level of
technology. Given a choice between worst case AGW scenario and
catastrophic death and destruction, any rational person would say,
“bring on the worst case AGW scenario”.
Christians have been preaching about the evils of war for over a millenium. Despite the obvious negative effects, the incidence of war has not dropped significantly over that period because the advantage some get form starting wars- extra wealth, spreading genes to the conquered population, outweighs the negative risks. The advantages each one of us gets
from burning fossil fuels, keeping our jobs and staying alive in
comfort, FAR outweighs any potential disadvantage.- A. McIntire
Funny, with all the discussion of deception and disbelief, that at then end of the day, the estimate of 3C of warming as an equilibrium response to a doubling of CO2 from preindustrial levels is still a reasonable estimate well within the bands of uncertainty in both the climate models as well as the paleoclimate data.and this has been around for many decades. I don’t see much deception here.
What is also not reasonable to say is that we even know what the equilibrium response of the current 392 ppm of CO2 will be, as the cryosphere and biosphere are still responding. How much more impossible is it to flatly state that they are certain what the equilibrium response of a doubling of CO2 will be! Who is being more deceptive– Monckton and Lindzen, who put a high degree of certainty that the equilibrium response of a doubling of CO2 will be nearly equal to the transient response, and will be about 1.2C at most, or the many hundreds of dedicated climate scientists who study this everyday are comfortable with the range of potential equilibrium response with uncertainty bands of 1.4C to 4.5C?
I would posit that the rantings of good men like Monckton do much to sew the seeds of distrust and blur moral judgement in a dishonest way, creating more confusion than already might be present among those who fall victim to the polished nature of those rants.
“I would posit that the rantings of good men like Monckton do much to sew the seeds of distrust and blur moral judgement in a dishonest way, creating more confusion than already might be present among those who fall victim to the polished nature of those rants.”
————————————————————
What ‘moral judgement’ are you referring to? Do you even know what the term means?
Here’s a tip – it has nothing to do with people’s views on CAGW and on what, if anything, should be done about it.
The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy defines ‘morality’ as follows:
“The term “morality” can be used either
descriptively to refer to some codes of conduct put forward by a society or,
some other group, such as a religion, or
accepted by an individual for her own behavior or
normatively to refer to a code of conduct that, given specified conditions, would be put forward by all rational persons.”
It can be relevant to the conduct of individuals (but not to groups) if they breach generally accepted codes of behaviour, such as by lying or deliberately manipulating the truth for their own ends. The misuse of the term ‘moral’ to score political points, such as in the head post and in your comment, is an example of this.
johanna,
Respectfully, I disagree. When someone, say an elected official, whose own moral judgement (or code of conduct) rests in wanting to honestly “do the right thing” when it comes to deciding on what (if anything) should be done about anthropogenic climate change, and as such they might look toward experts for information and guidance as to what that “right thing” is that ought to be done. For someone like Monckton to present himself before elected officials as an “expert” in the climate sensitivity issue, and then specifically claiming such things as “equilibrium sensitivity will be nearly equal to the transient sensitivity” and it will be at most 1.2C for a doubling of CO2 etc.is something that he can’t possibly know with such certainty, as it simply is not known with any certainty by anyone, and is the subject much ongoing research. How much more honest it is to at least put a range on the sensitivity as the IPCC does. So where is Monckton’s moral judgment or code of conduct in presenting what amounts to his opinion as a greater certainty as to what the climate sensitivity is to those who are decision makers and are representatives of the people? Not only is he being deceptive in presenting things as more certain than he can possible know, given the fact that the research is still intensely ongoing, but also by presenting what amounts to his beliefs as certainty, he creates additional confusion among those who truly want, and need to do the right thing, as representatives of the people.
I agree with R. Gates on this. It takes a certain moral character to assert climate change needs no preparation because it won’t happen with absolute certainty according to their own error bars that don’t even overlap with the scientific consensus. Thankfully city planners are not believing their certainty. At least JC’s error bars do overlap IPCC’s, so she can’t be accused of this. These are different types of skeptic.
But that’s not what you said in your original comment. You said that the listeners’ ‘moral judgement’ was being blurred, demonstrating that you didn’t even understand what the term means. When corrected, you changed your argument to imply that Monckton and Lindzen as individuals are consciously lying. I have no way of knowing whether or not they are consciously lying, just as I have no way of knowing whether those who disagree with them are consciously lying, except where there is objective evidence such as Gleick’s admission and some of the Climategate emails.
Your lack of clarity of thought and of basic understanding of the terms of the discussion is on a par with the authors of the slimy document in the head post.
Hi, R Gates.
I’m trying to categorize some of the items being mentioned, as falling under the headings “morals”, “values”, or “interests”.
From your post:
“I would posit that the rantings of good men like Monckton do much to sew the seeds of distrust and blur moral judgement in a dishonest way, creating more confusion than already might be present among those who fall victim to the polished nature of those rants.”
I take “rantings” as being an noun turned verb, OK ? It’s human action which may “sow seeds of distrust”. That metaphor indicates that by making his speeches he may be inducing change of perceptions by the audience members ? And that such a change of perceptions is cause of blurring of moral judgement ***in a dishonest way*** ?
First, if the above paraphrasing is OK, then we can deal with the purported “dishonesty” of making a judgement based on perceptions
R Gates, a question: IYO, would being honest be a moral issue, a value held dear or important, or an interest of the party involved, or all of these ?
Next,
What can you tell me about the dishonesty of making judgment calls based on perceptions or trust ?.
At least some of the additional CO2 might be natural:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/04/29/about-those-co2-isotopes/
R. Gates, Despite the inconsistencies of the modeled projections and observations, you remain convinced that CO2 forcing will lead to warming in excess of 1.5 degrees. Solar TSI only changes on the order of 1 Wm-2 from maximum to minimum, and only 1/4 of that would be the average change felt at the surface globally and only about 70% of that would be felt in the lower atmosphere and surface.
http://i122.photobucket.com/albums/o252/captdallas2/uahmidtropospheretropicsoceanminuslandwithleantsiwithlag.png
Even with all the noise, there is a fair correlation of mid-troposphere temperature change with the solar cycle. With all the billions of dollars spent to study the atmosphere with state of the art telemetry, you prefer to believe a hodge podge of mixed surface stations with poor coverage or modeled .results with insanely optimistic projected accuracy over the state of the art telemetry?
I am impressed with your faith.
A point I often make is that the solar forcing in a cycle is only 0.2 W/m2 and its effect can be seen. Just imagine what 3.7 W/m2 from doubling CO2 can do. Nearly 20 times the solar cycle change. Even the LIA was only about -0.5 W/m2.
And then imagine the extent of modulation effected by clouds. Very impressive indeed!
Jim D, what you are missing is where the 3.7 Wm-2 is felt and what is the energy of the surface it is to impact. The average energy flux of the oceans is around 425Wm-2, 3.7 Wm-2 there has much less impact than in the high latitudes. CO2 impact is dependent on the temperature of both the source and sink. That is why the models miss the tropics and Antarctic so badly. Arrhenius was wrong. His second guess was close.
If the earth has to radiate 3.7 W/m2 more, it doesn’t matter much where it got the imbalance from, the net effect is warming. In this sense it is equivalent to a 1% solar increase.
Jim D, You may want to run some numbers to get a better handle on that thought. The impact of the 3.7 is based on an “average” radiant layer based on “average” temperatures. Averaging T and T^4 will not give the same answer. So the CO2 forcing formula has to be adjusted for the actual change in the regional radiant layer, not some fictitious average layer. That is why the models are consistently wrong in the tropics and the Antarctic. If there was better accuracy for the southern hemisphere surface temperatures, it would be obvious.
capt. d, whether the Arctic responds more or the tropics, the earth has to heat. I am not saying the response pattern is identical for solar and CO2 forcing, unlike what Lindzen and Spencer assume for ENSO and CO2 forcing. The local atmospheric change is determined by surface changes and how they are distributed. In this case the Arctic and perhaps continents are responding more than tropical oceans.
Jim D said, “capt. d, whether the Arctic responds more or the tropics, the earth has to heat. ” Of course, but all things do not have to remain equal and the surface does not have to experience all of the warming.
The atmosphere below the average radiant layer can behave as a ground plane for an antennae. The variation in the altitude of the “average” radiant layer helps regulate the rate of long wave cooling. The lags between the oceans and atmosphere create the peaks and valleys in the temperature record. Not knowing what “average” should be complicates the problem. In a cooler world, CO2 would have a greater impact than in an “average” world. If paleo could do a better job, it would be easier to be more precise, but tropical reconstructions indicate there is less than 1.5 C change between the most recent glacial maxima and the current interglacial. The northern hemisphere has experience huge temperature fluctuations with even Siberia being warmer 45,000 years ago.
The troposphere is tied to the surface temperature by its definition. You can’t change the tropospheric temperature without changing the surface temperature and vice versa. This makes the whole thing simpler to understand as a single system too. The stratosphere is more independent, but we’re not talking about that.
CO2 sits in the back and does nothing. Not even a milliwatt (positive). I know you love your theory, but it’s wrong.
A convinced skeptic? Seems like an oxymoron but we see them in abundance here.
Yes, pretty convinced. It’s not an oxymoron, I would change my mind, just need sensible evidence and sensible reasoning/analysis. The ‘scientific’ case for CO2GW is very weak, IMO. Physics is naive. Besides, there are lines of evidence against it.
I would suggest that if you are not convinced by AGW’s arguments, you don’t understand it enough yet to form a strong opinion one way or the other. To be convinced it is wrong means there is something provably wrong you know about it, which I think you don’t. True skepticism is more agnostic rather than decided in its view.
I understand enough. The paradigm will be protected and maintained at any price and only nature’s phenomena will have the last word.
Nature will have the last word for sure.
Edim says this:
Edim thinks that someone else can prove that excess CO2 is not anthropogenic. That makes him the most extreme of all skeptics.
Once someone states that the excess CO2 is not anthropogenic, there is no need to extend the argument. All his other arguments on whether CO2 is a strong greenhouse gas, etc become moot. If the excess CO2 is due to natural causes, there is nothing we can really do about it, other than to continue to support and fund climate science for all the side benefits it will produce, i.e. research on renewable energy.
Nevertheless, he says this:
So there you have it. Edim is not an actual scientist, but simply a pointless contrarian. How pathetic.
Web, time will tell. Nature’s phenomena will have the last word. I stated my view, you stated yours. You think that 0% of the increase is caused by non-anthropogenic factors, if I remember correctly?
Typical projection and framing. Project your inadequacies onto the opposing viewpoint. Come to accept this strategy from the fake skeptic Edin.
Jim D, Really?
http://i122.photobucket.com/albums/o252/captdallas2/playingwithaqua.png
Perfect harmony in the troposphere? I don’t think so. It is nice to keep things simple, but over simplification is not a good thing :)
Why are you showing annual cycles when we are talking about climate?
http://i122.photobucket.com/albums/o252/captdallas2/playingwithaquauptothestratosphere.png
This one goes to 24km. Lots of weather mixed in with that climate.
I don’t trust anything less than a decade average when talking about climate.
Jim D, You shouldn’t really trust any data of any length. All data though should be considered though. The short AQUA charts are daily data where available just showing the changing relationship between atmospheric layers. Each one of the layers has a different composition and a different relative velocity with respect to the surface. If the Earth were a billiard ball, the equatorial surface would travel 5.4kilometers per hour slower than the 21K layer of the atmosphere and that would travel 5.4kilometers per hour slower than the 42kilometer layer. The relative velocity at the surface in the equator is much greater that at the poles.
So to say that 3.7Wm-2 will cause an average 1.5degrees change at the surface without considering which surface and what relative velocity is a bit naive. Welcome to Chaos central :)
Jim D said, “Why are you showing annual cycles when we are talking about climate?” How can you understand climate if you can’t understand the subtle changes in the annual cycles? The Earth is not a billiard ball. It is a dynamic system of quasi spherical layers all revolving at different relative velocities.
If there is a forcing of 5Wm-2 between to atmospheric layers with one relative velocity then it shifts up 100 meters there will be a different relationships because of the change in the relative velocities. That is the main thing missing in the simplistic analogies. It is a four dimensional relationship, x,y,z and t.
The “all things remaining equal” is a major leap of faith.
From the study
“Unlike financial fraud or terrorist attacks, climate change does not register, emotionally, as a wrong that demands to be righted.”
Even after this long, it’s still almost beyond belief that such sloppiness can be presented
Terrorist attacks are human actions, whereas climate change is not a human action. Since it is not a human action it cannot be a moral or ethical issue,
Professor Curry, id this type garbage slip by your scan of the paper ?
The point– “Unlike financial fraud or terrorist attacks, climate change does not register, emotionally, as a wrong that demands to be righted.”
Because unlike financial fraud or terrorists attacks climate change can not be clearly demonstrated to be a problem, much less a problem whereby changing a small number of human’s behaviors will result in a large change in the resulting condition.
That too, but I think that climate change not being an action is stronger argument that the study is very poor in quality; very sloppy thinking. It’s not even a human action.
It’s as if instead of using “terrorist attack causing death”, they had presented “death” as a moral or ethical issue.
It’s such incredibly sloppy thinking
“Steven Mosher | April 28, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Reply
You are confused.
1. sensitivity is defined as the increase in temperature given an increase in forcing in watts.”
Please show me the provenance of this definition. I have always seen sensitivity defined as a temperature response to a doubling of concentration of a greenhouse gas or mixture of greenhouse gasses. It has unites of degrees per doubling. Feedback is a dimensionless number that you multiply temperature rise by.
did you take the time to even LOOK!
“Climate sensitivity is a measure of how responsive the temperature of the climate system is to a change in the radiative forcing.
Although climate sensitivity is usually used in the context of radiative forcing by carbon dioxide, it is thought of as a general property of the climate system: the change in surface air temperature (ΔTs) following a unit change in radiative forcing (RF), and thus is expressed in units of °C/(W/m2). For this to be useful, the measure must be independent of the nature of the forcing (e.g. from greenhouse gases or solar variation); to first order this is indeed found to be so”
For example. one way to estimate the sensitivity is to look at the response to volcanic forcing. NOTHING about C02 there. its a SYSTEM property.
it has NOTHING to due with co2 PER SE. it is how sensitive the SYSTEM is to ANY RF forcing. whether that forcing is increased/decreased albedo, increased/decreased solar forcing, GHG forcing, land use forcing,
the UNITS are DEGREES of C per WATT meter/sq
That property has NOTHING to do with C02. that is WHY we can estimate it from looking at the response of the climate after volcanoes.
This property is the source of much uncertainty.
On the other hand the FORCING per doubling of c02 is well understood.
Double c02 and you get 3.7W of additional forcing.
Steven, you write “For this to be useful, the measure must be independent of the nature of the forcing (e.g. from greenhouse gases or solar variation); to first order this is indeed found to be so”
Do you have a reference for this, please?
Jim, Steven has the correct definition. There is confusion because of the Model definition, “Definitions of sensitivity
The standard definition of climate sensitivity comes from the Charney report in 1979, where the response was defined as that of an atmospheric model with fixed boundary conditions (ice sheets, vegetation, atmospheric composition) but variable ocean temperatures, to 2xCO2. This has become a standard model metric (because it is relatively easy to calculate. It is not however the same thing as what would really happen to the climate with 2xCO2, because of course, those ‘fixed’ factors would not stay fixed.” In the model world, definitions change with the boundaries of the models. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/11/ice-age-constraints-on-climate-sensitivity/
I prefer the real world myself :0
Now go and read what I wrote again. I never called out CO2 by name:
“a doubling of concentration of a greenhouse gas or mixture of greenhouse gasses”.
One thing people talking about morality forget is that moral systems include some pretty dark corners.
There are widespread moralities that dictate, for instance, “To an enemy, only deception,” and these moralities often interbreed with for example, “Who isn’t us is the enemy.”
Moral systems built on a perogative of lying and deception, of gain to self in the moment at any cost on any term to anyone exist, and are not even all that rare.
Look at moralities like the infamous “white man’s burden.” In service of that moral code, anyone who can be exploited, subjugated, made use of and then blamed, then corrected by punishment and further subjugation and exploitation, all “for their own good” is fair game. In some cases, literally.
One should be clear which moral system one is discussing. And that some people will be lying about theirs.
Bart, thank you for picking up on this line of thought.
To me you seem to indicate that morals are about good vs bad “because” ( which rests on the best argument available; the argument “it just is” ).
It’s not a bad argument to explain that whatever the causes, we intrinsically feel it is so, much as other animals might seem to obey poorly understood natural laws regarding how their behaviour “just is”
Whether from Darwinian, or religious perspective, one can say “this is just how things are”. and they are that way for a reason we do not fully understand, .
Regardless of the above, I think you agree that wrt critiquing this paper or even understanding each other, we need some focus on the terms being bandied about.
The authors don’t seem to have considered the following. I expect that there are others.
There are many other important ways to invest our time and attention, not just this one.
There is no proof that proposed remedies will work.
Who would have thought that when you don’t even drive to work, you still can make a lifetimes worth of CO2 with just a little heat thrown in, for free?
http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/2012/4/24/9_months_later_carmageddon_gives_birth.htm
You don’t need a rocket scientist either.
Nowhere do we see science, logic, rationality, evidence, or any appeal to empirical fact. Every “psychological strategy” aims at emotions like fear, prejudice, and conformance to authority.
These are the time honored methods of propagandists. They seek power, not morality. The burdens they wish to impose on society in the name of “climate change” are decidedly immoral.
Here are more:
Some of the prominent proponents of AGW have a long history of being wrong (Ehrlich, Holdren.)
Some of the proponents of AGW have born false witness (raising suspicions about others.)
The proponents of the theory and of action are always demanding large amounts of other people’s money. (In some cases, e.g. Al Gore, quite hypocritically.)
At the rate evidence is accumulating now, the entire problem and list of proposed solutions (e.g. solar power) will be much better defined two decades from now, so the optimal strategy is watchful waiting and some preparation.
It’s not that one “ignores” David Appell. It’s that there is no point in discussing anything with him, because there is nothing I or anybody else can say in comments to a blog post, that will ever change his mind.
He might have something interesting to say and will of course be spot-on now and then, however there is nothing to “exchange” apart from a lot of wasted time.
The point of responding is not to change his mind, but rather to publicly post the counter argument, lest he be believed by others,
David – that’s the way we thought at the time of Usenet. Nowadays, public rebuttal doesn’t matter, otherwise there’d be no astrological websites any longer.
We were visited last fall by friends-of-the-family who have achieved an enviable peace-of-mind with respect to climate-change and moral judgement, and perhaps readers of Climate Etc. might be interested to know how they achieved this peace-of-mind.
To begin, this couple has shingled their house with solar cells, and thus has joined the increasing number of American families who are net electricity producers rather than consumers. It was pretty darn impressive when they logged into their house’ energy control system, and showed us that even when they were away from home on vacation, there home was still feeding energy back into the grid … they could show us, hour-by-hour and panel-by-panel, the electric energy surplus they produced.
Each month their goal is to receive money from the power company, not pay money … it helps that they’re both engineers, and positively enjoy tuning and observing their home power system … in practice they say it’s like owing a Model T car … a Model T that makes money for their family.
Interest among the neighbors is high, and like many solar-conversion home-owners, they receive frequent requests for tours; they foresee that pretty most homes in their neighborhood will have converted to solar by 2020 or so. Moreover, they’re planning that their next car will be all-electric, and they’re increasing the cell of their cell array to accomodate the extra power demand. No more gasoline bills and no more electric bills … in an air-conditioned middle-class home! :)
This couple sees no obstable to an American energy economy that is wholly converted to a carbon-neutral blend of solar, wind, hydroelectric, and nuclear; indeed they would prefer that this conversion happen sooner rather than later (their view is that exporting hundreds of billions of dollars each year to foreign oil producers is dumb and harmful).
They foresee that by 2025 or so, the majority of every American families will be individually carbon-neutral, and that a revenue-neutral overall American energy economy will be the accepted political objective of both the Republican and Democratic partie alike.
This couple views James Hansen’s four most recent articles as statements of plain common sense and outstanding opportunity:
• The Earth is Warming: “Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Implications” (arXiv:1110.1365)
• The Risks are Substantial: “Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice” (arXiv:1204.1286)
• The Lessons of History are Plain: “Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change” (arXiv:1105.0968)
• The Opportunities are Evident: “Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature” (arXiv:1110.1365)
Supposing that everything in Hansen’s four articles comes to pass, from this couple’s point-of-view, it’s hard to foresee that the net results can be anything but good.
So when it comes to moral, economic, and ecological apocalypse associated to climate-change … where’s the beef? Are there any obstruction to prevent the American economy from adapting, as simply, productively, and enjoyably as this couple is adapting?
Are there any obstructions to a prosperous and secure American future … aside from the usual coalition of timidity, greed, inertia, prejudice, and ignorance?
And this unholy coalition is best defeated by our friends’ simple method: by showing folks a future that just plain works. :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Hi Joy,
By chance, do you happen to know your friends electrical service providers name-? I find it interesting how different service providers are managing the flow of the electrons (FIT, Net Meter being two of the options) and how the billing works for the time that folks use power from the grid who happen to have PV. My service provider (PG&E) keeps track of the electrons I send to the grid with my PV system via my Time of Use Net Meter. PG&E is acting as the battery in this approach. Other providers in my state have another option for how to keep track of things- 1) a FIT meter for PV and 2) a second billing grade meter for their electrons purchased from the grid.
At this time of year my system generates 35 to 38 kwh(ac) per day (as long as it reasonably sunny and not above 95F) and it will have this output till about the end of September.
Kakatoa, there are quite a number of economic subtleties associated to home PV (Photo-Voltaic) power generation that we had not appreciated before talking to our friends. E.g., you drive to work, where you pay to charge-up your electric car from the local. Which is cool, because back-home, your house is feeding electrical energy into that same grid & earning money for you. Thus I had not appreciated that daytime PV generation capacity is naturally well-matched to two huge energy-hogs: automobile and air-conditioners.
Climate Etc. readers are encouraged to visit pioneering solar-electric homes in your home-town. There is plenty to learn, and plenty of what you will learn is surprising, interesting, and encouraging.
Joy
When looked at more closely, you seem to offer nothing of substance
I concur Joy- there are a lot of economic and engineering details to consider when evaluating energy systems (PV, wind or any self generation option). In case you want to learn more about some of the details in regards to PV I found Andy Black’s work of value back in 2005 when specificing my PV system and metering option- http://www.ongrid.net/papers/PaybackOnSolarSERG.pdf .
Unless your friends have a back up power system in place I don’t think they will be able to use the power they generate with their PV system for charging their EV. EV’s take a long time to charge at home (a REALLY long time if you haven’t spent (or got a grant for) the $3000.00+/- for a 240 volt charger).
You are correct that most homes biggest energy usage (in the summer) comes from their HVAC systems. If you happen to have an all electric home and a few infants, or toddlers your energy usage will be a lot higher then some old retired couple living in a moderate climate. There is always a lot of laundry to do in this scenario.
How much did this wonderful solar installation cost? And I don’t mean before subsidies/rebates. What was the total cost? Then, how much money in subsidies/rebates did they receive? Then, finally, what rate do they get paid for their power and what is the residential rate paid by a non-solar electricity user. I don’t expect you will answer these questions, but the point is there no matter.
If it could be done cost effectively, everyone would be doing it
Rob, a curve that’s accelerating faster than James Hansen’s predicted sea-level-rise is US Solar-Electric Installations 2000-2010! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Joy
You link does not seem to work and the rate of acceleration is really meaningless. What has meaning is the cost benefit analysis. How long is the payback including expected maintenance.
Joy- people are not againest things if they make sense-
Sorry Rob try this link: US Solar-Electric Installations 2000-2010.
Those elements of mike’s and gbaikie’s posts that have been positive, life-affirming, entrepreneurial, and technologically forward-thinking … are appreciated too. :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Joy
I notice you fail to respond to the simple question regarding how long it will take to pay back the investment when you include maintaining the system. Why is that?
Rob, may I respectfully suggest that you personally visit some solar-home owners in your community hellip; most American cities now host regular organized tours hellip; and you will freely receive more-and-plainer information from these home-owners than the know-it-all internet pundits of the Righteous Right and Righteous Left.
Also, you will meet a bunch of really nice, can-do, solution-oriented, ordinary-American families hellip; much like early days of bicycling and automobiles. :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Jim2
Some data from California Solar Statistics http://www.californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov/ for your files.
The data base has lots details (size, cost, service provider, residential. commercial, etc) on PV installations in CA that got a rebate- some details are lacking for 2006 (which is when I put my PV system in). Last time I checked the database I thought you could even get to the rebate amount per install.
I downloaded the PV program data. Without more detail, it isn’t going to make sense. If I had the time …
J,
I printed out a few pages from the database earlier this week- I sorted things this way AC rated, year, cpi adjusted, residential market for PG&E
The following data is for a 5.0 Kw (AC) residential system over time. Note PG&E has a progressive rate structure for electricity- see the Andy Black reference above for the details.
2007= $10.06 per watt, n=346
2009= $8.95 per watt, n=573
2011= $7.32 per watt, n=732
2012=$6.67 per watt, n=42
Let me know what your interested in and I’ll see if I can answer your question(s).
To get a feel for prices for commercial: 2011 (n=192, 15 Kw AC= $6.88 watt), the largest single commercial size system installed this year was 450 Kw- price was $4.65 watt. All costs are installed before rebates and tax credits. I am not sure if permit fees are included or not.
K
Joy,
I take it your anecdote is offered as a motivational, up-lifting story of grit and gumption and redemption. O. K. So some “family friends” have installed a solar-shingle roof that is a faster, cheaper, smarter source of electricity and that also actually makes them a buck. And the whole deal gives them “peace of mind” as well.
So what’s not to like about your friend’s new roof? Except to say that if they really believe that demon carbon is truly nasty stuff, and all, I’d remind them that since they chose to use a CO2 spewing, fossil-fueled vehicle (I’m assuming they neither biked nor hiked) to visit you, it’s a little premature for them to be playing the “local hero” card and chucking their guilt-trip. And, of course, since you didn’t say otherwise, I assume that all this solar-panel business your friends are into is something done entirely on their own dime with no taxpayer subsidies for the roof-work; no rate-payer borne, artificially high-prices for power sold to the network; no taxpayer subsidies for the solar-cell manufacturer; and the like.
Indeed, your friends’ “good deed” sounds (unless there are a bunch of taxpayer/rate-payer rip-offs propping up your friends’ success story) like a classic tale of individual, American initiative. Except for one thing. What does any of this have to do with the Republican and Democratic parties and their “political objectives,” Joy? Unless, of course, there’s a little more to your little story than you’re letting on. I mean, Joy, why the “hook” in all that feel-good bait?
You know, like, if your friends have found a way to get free electricity (initial installation and subsequent maintenance/replacement costs considered) without any sort of taxpayer/ratepayer prop, then, yeah, that’s the wave of the future–and certainly we don’t need no stinkin’ political parties gumming up the works.
Curious, though, that a make-a-buck hound like Al Gore hasn’t fitted out his rambling seaside mansion with solar-panels–I mean think of all the dough just waiting to be made off of all that roof-top acreage. Don’t you think, Joy?
Isn’t the person who chooses not to have children the one who is doing the most to positively impact the environment in the long term?
Too late, Rob. Al Gore has four children. On top of that, I can’t find any evidence he gives a tinker’s damn about his carbon foot print.
What’s Suzuki got – hasn’t he had FIVE maggots ?
He’s been doing a teensy bit more than just clinging to his wife crying, at night
Surpassed in their effort only by those who choose to check out completely.
I’m still waiting for Paul Erhlich to lead by example, as he’s been saying for decades there are too many people on this planet.
“Are there any obstructions to a prosperous and secure American future … aside from the usual coalition of timidity, greed, inertia, prejudice, and ignorance?”
How about reality?
The government is paying you to do the *right thing*.
The power companies are required to buy at a high price
any power at any time you “provide it to them”.
[Just a clue: when you go to the greedy supermarket, the supermarket can’t force you buy stuff you don’t want. You get to choose what, how much, and when you want to buy. Only a government has the power to tell you what you have to buy, when you have to buy it, and how much you pay for it. Government is like your mommy and daddy.
Now the starting premise is the government knows what is right.
Has any government in the very long history of governments been very good at knowing what is right?
Are the current crop of geniuses going to get it right?”
Joy Black | April 29, 2012 at 5:25 pm |
I understand the reason Bill Gross went with concentrators over PV is the net carbon savings of PV is essentially negative. Silicon heated to hundreds of degrees for days to purify consumes far more electricity (most often from coal) than it will produce in decades — which in the case of PV, means ever, given the lifespan of the stuff. With experimental triple-triple annihilation dyes and folded array configurations, PV might approach 40% or more efficiency one day, which will go a long way toward overcoming the carbon debt issue. Or not.
Concentrators (eg, http://esolar.com/), however, pay off their carbon debt in under a year, and are more cost-effective and efficient per area, produce also heated water and can be integrated with HVAC to bring down cooling costs domestically, and are much likelier to hit higher efficiencies sooner than PV. I don’t see any of this in your friends’ solar tour group website, but I do think their motivations sound moral.
China seems to be waffling on concentrators. On the one hand, they announced they were going to experiment for a decade, and possibly commit to filling a desert with collectors to power their nation; on the other, they’ve also announced more recently they were scrapping all alternatives to focus solely on coal (and/or possibly nuclear). But at least they’re absolutely clear on the direction they’re going. Or not.
Would that the American situation were half so unclouded.
I ought add, with multijunction non-silicon photovoltaic, triple-triple annihilation dye, folded array, efficient low-cost concentrators, solar could hit freakishly low prices, substantially lower than coal, and jaw-dropping efficiency.
But not much of this is well demonstrated, outside of whiteboards and simulations, yet.
Well there you are Joy Black. You never got back to me on my proposed wager. What say? You were crowing that no skeptics would bet with you.
I’m more than happy to do so.
Pokerguy, that’s because neither you, nor any other climate-change skeptic, has filled-out a sea-level-rise tote-board.
Just fill in the blanks on this handy proposition-with-odds template:
• Rise of 0 meter (or greater): ____/____ odds;
• Rise of 1 meter (or greater): ____/____ odds;
• Rise of 2 meter (or greater): ____/____ odds;
• Rise of 3 meter (or greater): ____/____ odds;
• Rise of 4 meter (or greater): ____/____ odds; and
• Rise of 5 meter (or greater): ____/____ odds;
• Over-under: ____________ meters rise in the year 2100.
——————————
Rule 1: “5/7 odds” means this, a bet of 5 receives a payout of 7, for a net better’s profit of 2.
Rule 2: The book accepts bets in either direction. Example proposition-with-odds: “Rise of 1 meter (or greater): 5/7 odds” means the book accepts bets of 5-to-win-7 that the sea-level rise is 1 meter (or greater), or with equal willingness, the book accepts bets of 2-to-win-7 that the sea-level rise is less than one meter.
Rule 3: In the real world of bookmaking, the book exacts a fixed percentage on the payout, such that by accepting bets on either side of the proposition, profits are guaranteed (here we’re ignoring that bookie’s ‘cut’).
——————————
Obviously, a tote-board conveys far more belief-information that a mere wager.
Amazing Fact: Not even one skeptical blogger/poster has ever ventured to specify the odds of sea-level rise. So let’s see some odds-setting action, skeptics! :smile: :grin: :lol:
This is because odds do not make sense in this context, Joy. Skeptics are not stupid.
of course odds make sense. Put down what you believe the likelihood to be.
OK,
I’ll give 100 to 1 that the Ocean City condo my brothers and I still own will not become beach front property in the lifetime of our grandchildren.
(it’s a block back from the beach.)
Joy
If someone is offering 7 dollars for every 2 dollars I put up if sea level rises by less than 1 meter by 2100, I’d like to place a bet. Can you post where to get this action?
I doubt those would be the odds. Even the IPCC has less than a meter.
I also greatly doubt it. That said, I’d commit my estate to put up a few million at those odds if someone with the resources offered the bet. I’d really be willing to wager on the rate over the next 20 years.
Joy,
I am offering odds of 10,000 to 1. Make that 1,000,000 to 1 if you like. This applies to any and all sea level rises occurring by the year 2100.
Speaking as an ex bookmaker, your over/under statement is semantically meaningless, hence i cannot offer you odds.
Send me all your money. Send me all your friends’ money.
I promise to pay in full if I lose the bet. You have my word as a gentleman, and ex-licensed bookmaker. I have never failed to settle a bookmaking debt, ever.
Live well and prosper.
Mike Flynn
A rise of less than a metre is absolutely certain unless we get major shifts in climate. This is indeed entirely feasible for a number of reasons – http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007GL030288.shtml (you can find a non-paywalled copy simply by searching the the title) – the principle among them being the non-linear nature of climate.
Climate shifts happen every few decades – around 1910, the mid 1940’s, the late 1970’s and 1998/2001. It is a rearrangement of cloud, dust, ice, ocean circulation, and biologial feedbacks in the dynamically complex (in terms of complexity physics – spatio-temporally chaotic) climate system.
Climate shifts are not predictable in any practical sense. Climate models are of little help in this regard. Except perhaps to say that we are currently in a cool mode and these tend to persist for 20 to 40 years.
‘Using a new measure of coupling strength, this update shows that these climate modes have recently synchronized, with synchronization peaking in the year 2001/02. This synchronization has been followed by an increase in coupling. This suggests that the climate system may well have shifted again, with a consequent break in the global mean temperature trend from the post 1976/77 warming to a new period (indeterminate length) of roughly constant global mean temperature.’
A copy is linked at – http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/07/warminginterrupted-much-ado-about-natural-variability/
‘Thinking is centered around slow changes to our climate and how they will affect humans and the habitability of our planet. Yet this thinking is flawed: It ignores the well-established fact that Earth’s climate has changed rapidly in the past and could change rapidly in the future. The issue centers around the paradox that global warming could instigate a new Little Ice Age in the northern hemisphere.’ http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=83339&tid=3622&cid=10046
So things are not as simple as you seem mistakenly to believe and there are perhaps surprises coming that could involve a 10 degree C drop in temperature in North America in as little as a decade. It seems unlikely to stop there as runaway ice, snow and vegetation effects take over.
So the concept of global warming is misleading and what we should expect instead is abrupt climate change and inevitable surprises – http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?isbn=0309074347
But there is little in your friend’ example to dispute. If that is how they want to spend their money – by all means. In the bigger picture the objective is to reject taxes or caps on carbon dioxide. This is a very limited agenda that has not worked, will not work and would if persued to the end game reduce economic growth in a world where growth is desperately needed still.
There are indeed altrernative in technological innovation, development and conservation that are not merely effective but worthwhile for other objective outcomes. http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2011/07/climate_pragmatism_innovation.shtml
Your bet is based on wrong ideas – and solar panels where supported by grants and feed-in tariffs is self defeating.
Nowhere do they suggest that it is Big Oil that is paying to cause the scepticism amongst the population. That puts these psychologists at odds with much of the Warmist community ;>)
Judith,
I had to smile a bit when I read this post. Sure, someone trying to sell “bad news” can adopt methods that make their sales pitch more effective. But I think this is a secondary issue. The overwhelmingly more difficult problem is that the science is a long way from being able to justify drastic and costly actions, actions which will reduce wealth (for certain) immediately. No significant public action is going to take place for a least a decade or two, when the Indians and Chinese are ready to talk about POSSIBLE reductions. In the mean time, perhaps better knowledge of aerosols and ocean heat accumulation will constrain climate sensitivity sufficiently to justify costly public measures. Perhaps not. Those young enough will see.
Morality without honesty? As comments here identify, morality can’t be separated from honesty. The statement , ‘So understanding the challenge is in manipulating the moral intuition within individuals…is important to those who wish to manipulate change.’ is simply ends justifying means. Carrot? Stick? Gatekeep? Subvert the FOI process? Hide the Decline? Do any damn thing it takes.
Hide the Decline Climategate email 16/10/ 2000. (Posted Jeff Id Nov24/11)
re the new method…’we set all post 1960 values to missing in the MXD data set (due to decline), and the method will infill these, estimating them from the real temperatures – another way of correcting for the decline, though may be not defensible.’
Can’t you hear the whistle blowing? Judy blow your horn.
=====================
lol—very mosh like
Joy or is it Vince? I see you’ve been peddling your sea level rise elsewhere, it must be so disappointing to be a crowd of one!
R Gates said: “The temperature of the troposphere acts as a control valve to the rate of heat flowing from ocean to atmosphere, affecting the thermal gradient across the ocean skin layer. With temperatures being flat over the past decade, this “control valve” didn’t open more or close, but simply kept approximately the same rate of ocean heat content accumulation averaged over the past decade. The ocean heat content, especially down to 1500 or 2000 meters clearly shows the accumulation continued. The control valve was roughly kept at the same level over the decade because temperatures in the atmosphere were flat. Had the atmosphere cooled greatly over the decade, the control valve would have opened up, and oceans would have released more heat. When the atmosphere warms, the control valve closes.”
This is some of the most convoluted crap I’ve ever seen. On one hand you acknowledge the second law of thermodynamics, but on the other hand you claim that ocean heat content continued to rise but the tropospheric valve just continued to modulate the same heat to the troposphere. This is impossible and violates the second law. The skin atmospheric temperature in contact with the ocean ALWAYS tries to maintain the ocean skin temperature. The reason why it often can’t is because of the vapor pressure gradients that are associated with the Clausius/ Claypeyron equation for the saturation vapor pressure of water. In the warmer earth regions, water vapor pressures are often around 40 millibars. Using that relationship, if you tried to step the atmospheric temperature up 1 degC from 29 degC to 30 degC because the ocean warmed one degree it takes 4.5 degC of additional heat energy FROM THE AIR to re-saturate the surface layer and create a new wet bulb temperature of 30 degC. Where is the heat going to come from? This obviously puts a large brake on the rise of ocean temperature because the heat is being expended as latent heat rather than sensible heat. It doesn’t take long to go from there and realize that CO2 cannot control the earth’s temperature in any way you claim that it can. The introduction of water vapor in this manner could not cause global warming. Both CO2 and water vapor COOL the troposphere in exchange for the higher effective emission height at the ground. The hydrological cycle obviously finds its own thermodynamic and hydrostatic equilibrium from there and sets the effective emission height at around 6 Km. Adding more CO2 won’t change a thing beacuse of upper tropospheric cooling. The water vapor optical depth will simply dance around a rising emission height from CO2 and readjust the outgoing long wave radiation ( OLR ) back to its own equilibrium. And that creates another fallacy by you as a warmer claiming that an absorption can be called a “forcing” on surface temperature. That is pure crap unless you know the spectrally integrated ougoing long wave radiation which nobody has actually calculated. And when you finally get a handle on that you’ll end up discovering that there is no IR “imbalance” caused by the absorption of additional IR from CO2, and the OLR in the tropics will show the greenhouse factor G, to remain at the remarkable stable value set by the hydro cycle of .33. Water vapor, clouds and the earth’s hydological cycle govern the OLR, not CO2. This was discovered, published and taught as the founding work in atmospheric radiation years ago. It was never refuted by anyone, just shelved for your populist, crappy and wrong assumptions about CO2 causing positive feedback on water vapor that has been loaded into the failed models that costed taxpayers billions of dollars.
Are you a climate scientist? If so, you need some course work in basic meteorology and thermodynamics.
A couple of quick points. The deep ocean can warm without the surface or atmosphere needing to respond. This is what has likely happened in the recent decade. Secondly, to raise the emission height, which is needed to counteract the effect of added CO2, the atmosphere necessarily has to warm. I am not sure where you get your cooling from.
First of all we are talking about ocean heat content – which is irresspective of where the energy is found in the ocean and can’t increase or decrease without a power flux.
The second point is moot if the atmospjhere isn’t warming.
Jim D: You can go onto the university of Chicago’s site and use MODTRAN ( Moderate Resolution Radiative Transfer Code ) to calculate the flux divergence of CO2 anytime you want. I did and found the divergence cause a net loss of IR in the layers above 4 Km. THAT is where you get cooling from in adding more CO2.
Your claim that the atmosphere need not respond to ocean warming is the same hooey spouted by R. Gates and violates the second law of thermodynamics. If you don’t get that I can’t help you but you are just plain wrong. Adding CO2 decreases the effective emission height of the spectrally integrated regions excluding CO2 through lowered emission heights generated by a lower saturation vapor pressure at the respected cooling altitudes and the ensung phase change of vapor to cloud with some enhanced precipitation. It takes very little of this to counter CO2’s increased absorption.The solar shortwave is also involved. Basic stuff, Jim.
Chuck, I use MODTRAN too. Add CO2, you see outgoing longwave decrease. Add to the temperature, it increases. Therefore only warming opposes adding CO2 in its OLR effect. Warming also means the surface has to be warmer, the saturation vapor pressure increases, more water vapor in the atmosphere, more OLR (try adding H2O in MODTRAN), and there you have the effects all there if you believe MODTRAN.
…more water vapor, less OLR, more warming needed to counteract it, …
JimD: And this statement shows that you don’t understand radiation basics. You keep treating an absorption as a “temperature forcing” from CO2’s decreasing TOA emission. That doesn’t work in an atmosphere that has a hydro cycle like the earth. The spectrally integrated OLR is the only comparison that can be used to determine whether there is an energy imbalance caused by CO2. It has not been proven and is not likely from the basic physics. You also don’t seem to comprehend that there are no cloud physics involved with any of these changes. They are static and under that assumption, of course, you get a positive feedback from water vapor on CO2. But this is wrong.
It is the emission that causes OLR. Emission at higher levels due to having more GHGs has a lower effective temperature and less OLR. Which part don’t you agree with?
Jim D; In response to your statement below, yes, emission causes OLR. But the hydro cycle redistributes surface heat energy and splatters it across the IR spectrum. This most definately affects the OLR emission and can short circuit the absorption of IR by CO2. It is obvious that it does. The feedback to water vapor cannot be positive.
“The feedback to water vapor cannot be positive.”
Yes it can. Water is a greenhouse gas. More water vapor = even less IR getting into space.
lolwot: Why don’t you try understanding what is being said before making a comment that makes no sense to the frame of this discussion.
I am on topic. You are conflating water vapor and cloud feedback. Fine, but your statement is therefore not correct. If water vapor feedback is stronger than negative cloud feedback then the net “conflated” water vapor feedback would be positive.
Hence I find the lack of uncertainty in your “The feedback to water vapor cannot be positive.” pronouncement disturbing.
Not to mention that cloud feedback itself might be positive.
lolwot: 61 years of NOAA data on water vapor column amount shows that it decreased by .649% from the mean of about 2.5 prcm’s. That is amazing considering we were in warm phase PDO for the last 30 years ending in 2007. So where is the positive feedback if warm phase PDO is excluded ? It fell in the thirty years prior inspite of rising CO2 during the last cold phase PDO. Your claims have no credibility and neither does the fact that you post in anonymity.
Chuck, so if the data shows that column water vapor is increasing and that the warming has been much faster than a no-feedback CO2 effect, would you admit to being wrong, or would you prefer to put forward your alternative explanation of the warming?
Jim: No that does not prove I am wrong. I just pointed out to R Gates that there is a positive feedback from water vapor on temperature as long as solar short wave is involved because there are four distinct water vapor bands in the solar near infrared that would cause tropospheric warming and allow the column to amplify some. But that could not hold for CO2 because 15 micron emission will cool the troposphere in exhange for its own higher emission height thus reduce the emission height of water vapor.
Your statement is not consistent with itself. A higher emission height for CO2 cannot possibly go with a lower emission height for water vapor unless you have figured out how to reduce water vapor content in a warming atmosphere.
Already been explained to you, Jim. Co2 15 micron emission cools the troposphere above 4 KM by increasing CO2. That will trim out water vapor. It’s not hard to get, Jim. You just don’t want to get it.
“You keep treating an absorption as a “temperature forcing” from CO2′s decreasing TOA emission. That doesn’t work in an atmosphere that has a hydro cycle like the earth.”
Then how come it works in climate models, which do have a hydro cycle and which include radiation codes like MODTRAN?
The thing is you are trying to pretend that your claims are all basic physics, when they are not. If they were basic physics then even the advanced models would show the effect you are talking about. They don’t.
lolwot: The problem with your statement is that the modeling is a failure. It doesn’t work and the positive feedback to the vapor is just one reason. The next is that the modeling has no accurate cloud physics.
You don’t know what you’re talking about. These errors are well documented.
Chuck wise said:
“On one hand you acknowledge the second law of thermodynamics, but on the other hand you claim that ocean heat content continued to rise but the tropospheric valve just continued to modulate the same heat to the troposphere.”
_____
How is this hard to understand? X number of watts/second (i.e. Joules) are entering the ocean and Y number of watts/second (i.e. Joules) are leaving. If X=Y, then the oceans don’t warm. However, if Y is less than X, then the oceans warm, as they have been doing for at least the past 40+ years. X is determined mainly from the amount of SW solar entering the ocean, but the temperature of the troposphere acts as a control valve, to determine Y, due the action of LW radiation at the top of the ocean skin layer which alters the thermal gradient across the layer. The temperature of the troposphere has been fairly steady (at or near instrument high records) over the past 10 years, thus, the oceans have continued to accumulate energy. If Y was to decrease you would see X increase, albeit a bit more slowly as the oceans have much more thermal inertia. When Y increases, as it has on decadal time scales over the past 40 years, X will decrease, albeit much more slowly. In this way, the oceans act as a buffer of sorts, to even out short-term temperature variations in the atmosphere from getting even more extreme. Those who live near the ocean know exactly this effect on a diurnal basis, but the rest of the planet enjoys this bigger buffering effect on longer time scales. The ocean is the great heat sink of the planet, with the input to that sink determined by the amount of solar SW penetrating the ocean and the output from that sink determined at least partially by LW radiation at the top of the ocean skin layer altering the thermal gradient of the skin layer.
R Gates: The problem with this anaology is that X and Y are not independant of each other because of the vapor pressure gradients I already pointed out. They are tied to solar short wave. If X increases from shortwave, Y will decrease slightly and amplify X, because solar shorwave has water vapor bands in the near infrared that absorb and warm the troposphere. That would allow a slightly elevated water vapor emission height. If X decreases, Y will increase slightly because of tropospheric cooling if X was increased by solar forcing. There is your water vapor amplification and it is not from CO2.. If CO2 increases, Y will remain constant as water vapor readjusts to increased tropospheric cooling.
Chuck Wiese said:
“If X increases from shortwave, Y will decrease slightly and amplify X.”
_____
Uh, no matter what X and Y were, you just set up an infinite self-amplifying feedback loop. It doesn’t quite work that way in the real world.
When tropospheric temperatures increase, there are several ways that the Earth has to make sure that they increase only so much…i.e. a run-away greenhouse effect on Earth is unlikely, though temperatures can certainly get much warmer than they are today.
1) As explained, the rate of heat flux from the oceans is reduced as tropospheric temperatures increase, buffering more heat into the very efficient heat sink of the ocean.
2) The hydrological cycle is accelerated as atmospheric water vapor levels increase. We see greater rock weathering, leading to a slow reduction in CO2 from the atmosphere as it ultimately sequestered into the oceans.
These two methods of course work on different time scales, as the first one is immediate and the second one takes hundreds and even thousands of years. The second method, carbon sequestration through rock weathering, works on geological time scales, and the rapid release of CO2 by humans certainly has rapidly overwhelmed this natural negative feedback system.
normal geo, non-anthropogenic conditions)con
R Gates: I did no such thing. New equilibriums are established with water vapor optical depths that have nothing to do with “runaway global warming” . That is another fallacy invented by your convoluted thinking.Go back to the Clausius/Claypeyron brake energy for evaporating water and the ensuing radiative cooling at he top of the water vapor column. It is obvious water vapor cannot continue to grow in a limitless fashion without a huge change in solar energy input.
There is only one way to change the earth’s temperature with a water hydrological cycle. And that is to increase solar insolation at the surface and in the atmosphere. I’m not going to re-state it again to someone who does not want to comprehend it.
I am being practical. You are being ideological.
I am sure, unless you are an anarchist, even you accept top down government solutions are sometimes needed. For example national defense. So I will now put your argument in light of national defense to show you WHY I think your solution is ideological not practical.
Lets say the country has no military and everyone is wondering how to solve the problem of national defense. I propose a top-down solution: the government will tax everyone and use those taxes to fund a military to defend the country.
But you say:
“You are shameless, aren’t you, lolwot? Your hive-heaven military vision: Top-down, coercive taxes enforced by piggy, hypocrite creep-outs, exempt from the rigors of the sacrifices themselves. And your place in the scheme of things, lolwot? Well, let’s just imagine you see yourself among those with commissar-grade trough of your very own.”
What’s your alternative solution then? Well your solution is “LEADERSHIP BY EXAMPLE!”
Sorry it just wouldn’t work. It might fit your ideology whereby you aren’t forced by the government to do anything, but it doesn’t work. I could very well grab a gun and go out into the fields, but I wouldn’t expect that “example” will lead to tanks and aircraft carriers being built.
And it’s a similar story with carbon emissions. I am all ears, but you haven’t offered a remotely sensible non top-down solution that would work. Saying that people should stop flying to lead by example is just a gimmick. It won’t lead to significant carbon emission reduction, and I think you know it.
Interesting response, lolwot. Except to say, that in the military, it is expected that officers, junior officers, at least, lead from the front and by example (Lieutenants have historically incurred the highest casualty rates along with Corpsmen). And no one gets to the top unless they’ve first served at that junior officer level.
Of course, there was a time when the model for military leadership favored a senior generalship ensconced in luxurious chateau (kind of an early, less obscene, form of the up-coming Rio carbon-glutton pig-out party), far behind the front lines, exhorting, by means of the wondrous, newly-invented radio, the “grunts” to die ever more bravely. But that model didn’t work out so well.
So while the military analogy you offer does, indeed, describe an enterprise with a “top-down” organization, it is also describes an organizational set-up that teaches self-sacrificing leadership by example and from the front as the most important duty of its officers. And, oh by the way, while rank-hath-its-privilege in garrison, in many areas, in the field, officers eat last. And when the need arises, officers are even up at 3 a. m.–and I don’t mean for “last call.”
So, lolwot, let’s try this option–a “top-down” approach to carbon-reduction (this is all theoretical, of course–the whole CAGW business is a scam, we know), but with the Big-Green nomenklatura, making the big-bucks, actually providing LEADERSHIP! LEADERSHIP FROM THE FRONT! LEADERSHIP BY EXAMPLE!
Or are you hard over, lolwot, that the Big-Green Big-Shots can skip all that leadership business and the annoyance and inconvenience involved in setting the example and all and just get on with making the big bucks, expanding the hive, and enjoying all those really neat CO2 blow-out parties, available to the best-connected of the environmentally committed.
Why don’t we see what happens if we just do nothing? Doing something hasn’t helped and isn’t supposed to. If you can’t fix the non problem, go away :)
lolwot,
RE this statement: Lets say the country has no military and everyone is wondering how to solve the problem of national defense. I propose a top-down solution: the government will tax everyone and use those taxes to fund a military to defend the country.
For the record, we (the United States) have been in exactly this situation for a large part of our history. In fact it is how we started out. And the answer was not a top down solution. Nor was it taxation. The government borrowed money and depended on volunteer citizens.
Some Climate Etc denizens have criticized this post as psychobabble, others criticize our host as not forthcoming with her own opinion on that babble, but it’s my view, that posting the above ‘exhortation to manipulate’ … (and we know the Team did just that,) … to the cold, and sometimes warm, scrutiny of the denizens, is, itself, a connotative act by Judith.
( Of course I could be wrong.)
I don’t get the tendency of denizens on all sides of the debate here treating this blog like some virtual game of capture the flag, with Dr. Curry playing the part of the flag.
R. Gates April 29 11:23 am says:
“What is also not reasonable to say is that we even know what the equilibrium response of the current 392 ppm of CO2 will be, as the cryosphere and biosphere are still responding. How much more impossible is it to flatly state that they are certain what the equilibrium response of a doubling of CO2 will be! Who is being more deceptive– Monckton and Lindzen, who put a high degree of certainty that the equilibrium response of a doubling of CO2 will be nearly equal to the transient response, and will be about 1.2C at most, or the many hundreds of dedicated climate scientists who study this everyday are comfortable with the range of potential equilibrium response with uncertainty bands of 1.4C to 4.5C?”
All those numbers are wrong, and hundreds can be dedicated to the wrong gods. That equilibrium response is exactly zero. It follows from the fact that model predictions that still incorporate the enhanced greenhouse effect and use the Arrhenius method to calculate it have been proven invalid by Ferenc Miskolci. They are invalid because they do not apply to water vapor, the chief greenhouse gas of our planet. Model makers then introduce water vapor with an ad hoc assumption that it causes positive feedback for which there is no proof whatsoever. Miskolczi’s theory, on the other hand, applies to the combined effect of all greenhouse gases, including both carbon dioxide and water vapor in the atmosphere. First he showed that for a stable climate to exist the infrared optical thickness of the atmosphere had to be close to 1.841. He was criticized on the grounds that it can’t be true because if you add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere the optical thickness will necessarily increase. Miskolczi theory, however, requires that feedbacks among the absorbing species will adjust the absorptivity to return it to the stable value he calculated. This of course requires water vapor feedback to be negative, the opposite of what IPCC climate models assume, and the critics thought they had proven him wrong. But don’t forget the assumption that water vapor feedback is positive is only an ad hoc assumption, with no experimental proof. Experimental proof came from Miskolczi. Using NOAA database of weather balloon observations which goes back to 1948 he was able to show that the IR optical thickness of the atmosphere had indeed been constant for the previous 61 years. This is a momentous observation. At the same time the amount of carbon dioxide in the air went up 21.6 percent. This means that the addition of all this carbon dioxide to the atmosphere had no effect whatsoever on the absorption of IR by the atmosphere. And no absorption means no greenhouse effect, case closed. If CO2 does not cause warming, obviously doubling it will not do it either and the sensitivity is zero as I mentioned. But Miskolczi was not satisfied with his first result and for the EGU meeting in Vienna last year he repeated his measurements on seven subsets of the NOAA database. The optical thickness in all cases came very close to 1.87, his more accurate value for the stable state of the atmosphere. One logical conclusion from his theory is that there has never been any greenhouse warming at any time in the past. I have looked into it and have come to the conclusion that there really was no period within the last one hundred years that qualifies as a greenhouse warming period. And except for the Arctic there has not even been any warming at all for the last ten years. That is totally contrary to all IPCC model predictions and they don’t know what hit them. But should you think that Arctic warming is the real greenhouse warming that will save them you are mistaken. It is warm currents, not the greenhouse effect, that are warming up the Arctic. Arctic warming started suddenly at the turn of the twentieth century, paused in mid-century, then resumed, and is still going strong. There was no increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide when it started which rules out the greenhouse effect. To get the science, download this: http://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/arno-arrak.pdf
Miskolczi only defines his optical depth in the atmospheric window region where neither H2O or CO2 have an effect. This is unfortunately why he saw no effect from changing CO2. He ignores the parts of the spectrum where the emission lines actually are.
JimD: Miskolczi did no such thing. He defined in great detail the spectrally integrated effects of water vapor and CO2 at their respective absorption wavenumbers using HARTCODE, which is a far more precise code than HITRAN or MODTRAN. He was able to put together some of the realationships in his model that resulted from those precise measurements, namely that Aa = Ed.
For you to make such an asinine and innacurtae statement tells me you never even bothered to read the paper or study his work.
Look at his definition of optical depth. Few have realized it only includes the photons from the surface to space, i.e. the window wavelengths.
It does no such thing. Eu is the emerging upwelled IR that results from the TOA emission by all of the greenhouse gases in his model. You haven’t a clue, Jim.
The actual optical depth using all wavelengths is nearer 0.5. His 1.8 is due to neglecting the important part of the spectrum that comes directly from the atmosphere.
It is the part he calls St (transmitted surface flux), not Eu.
Jim D: The surface transmitted flux, St, is the window radiation not absorbed by the atmosphere. That plus Eu = OLR. St. If St decreases, either surface emission decreases or more IR is absorbed and becomes Eu. What part of that do you not get?
Chuck, Miskolczi defined optical depth from only St and Su, not Eu. You can infer for yourself what that means, but it doesn’t include anything emitted by the atmosphere in that definition, which unfortunately excludes the effects of increasing GHGs.
HITRAN is a database, not a code. you dont know what you are talking about.
Oh, nice play on words, Steve. How idiotic.
Steven Mosher: Here is the reference to HATRCODE written by Ferenc Miskolczi:: miskolczi.webs.com/hartcode_v01.pdf
In this paper, you will see this is not just a database, is IS infrared radiative transfer code. Now who doesn’t understand what they are talking about? That person is obviously you. And I’m not impressed with your gibberish here about “Co2 sensitivity” either. You are as mired into this dope as much as the rest here who claim absorption is a forcing by CO2 on temperature in a water rich atmosphere like earth. Absolute nonsense with out knowing the spectrally integrated OLR!
You realize that he used HITRAN data. You did read the code, right?
I thought not.
Jim: You’re wrong. Eu is the result of absorption and re-emission by all the ghg’s. F and K are additional heating terms that can increase or decrease emission as the atmosphere absorbs them and those are the solar and convective terms respectively.
The model incorporates all of the heat transfer mechanisms that govern the surface and atmosphere and it is an optical depth calculated from all of the terms, not just St and Su.
You clearly haven’t looked at how he defines optical depth yet.
Arno said:
“That equilibrium response is exactly zero”
_____
This, I would qualify as a perfect example of denial. But it gets better, where he goes on to say:
“Arctic warming started suddenly at the turn of the twentieth century, paused in mid-century, then resumed, and is still going strong. There was no increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide when it started which rules out the greenhouse effect.”
You may want to check your facts a bit more closely. CO2 had already been rising for at least a hundred years or more before the turn of the 20th century, having hit bottom around 1750 or so, and it has been rising ever since.
“the human moral judgement system is not well equipped to identify … a complex, large-scale and unintentionally caused phenomenon as an important moral imperative” … Either we can do this or we can’t. If we can’t do it for climate change, we can’t do it for anything else; so why focus on this issue rather than any of the many other such issues? And what causes, and who decides, a particular issue to be a “moral imperative” rather than a problem without moral overtones? A lot of question-begging here. The issue is, surely, can sufficient of us grasp the extent to which alleged catastrophic global warming is a real practical issue, what the costs and benefits are, whether or not it is sensible to take action, what priority should this have compared to other issues, e.g. lack of clean water and sanitation for billions of people? Presenting alleged CAGW as a “moral imperative” with which we are allegedly ill-equipped to deal might be an interesting intellectual exercise, but it’s peripheral to the main game of whether or not there is merit in taking costly action to address the alleged threat.
If using another planet as a scare tactic and say Venus Co2 will be our result misses the fact that gases on Venus weigh 400 times more than our do to the velocity difference. Velocity has a direct relationship with gravity . The slower the planetary velocity, the greater the gravity. Our oceans can show this with the greater weight as you go deeper also has less and less planetary velocity.
“Velocity has a direct relationship with gravity . The slower the planetary velocity, the greater the gravity”
wait what?
ManBearPig is hard to grasp psychologically.
Joe said:
Google stopped indexing this blog’s comments sometime late last year. My guess is that it might be an intentional decision by someone based on the low quality, sheer ignorance, and general wrongness of the skeptical science presented.
Google already is aware of the potential of automatic language translators flooding the net with wrong information. As an example, during the Fukushima disaster, people were using Japanese language auto-translators to decode Japanese news articles and reposting these. Unfortunately, these were rife with translation errors and contributed to the general trend toward entropy of Google’s information content. The only way to slow down information entropy increase is to direct intellectual energy into cleaning up or removing the nonsense.
BTW, the top-level posts are perfectly OK, just the comments that are going into the Google circular file.
Good thing you’re tracking it because no one else is.
This comments section is schizophrenic, good for laughs most of the time, with an occasional nugget of wisdom should someone knowledgeable about climate make an appearance.
Whenever I have create some good analysis, I place it on one of my blogs or comments section, which are all Google-indexed. I can essentially track anything useful I have written going back several years.
I noticed the absence of Google indexing when I wanted to retrieve something I had written on a topic. I could only find stuff from last year or earlier.
I am serious about the subject, but this site is definitely a good release mechanism for laughs.
‘At latitudes nearer the Equator, the inertia produced by Earth’s rotation is stronger than at polar latitudes. This counteracts the Earth’s gravity to a small degree – up to a maximum of 0.3% at the Equator – reducing the downward acceleration of falling objects.’ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_of_Earth
So really the principle is correct – although how signifiicant this is I don’t know.
I have suggested previously that the dust bin is where all of Webby’s comments belong.
Chief,
Here is the velocity mapping I did of our planet.
Centrifugal force plays a big role in circular motion as it is governed by speed which is slightly weaker than velocity.
At the 48 degree latitude is also where water goes to the poles due to the changes of velocity of being much to weak for the density.
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/guest/lalonde-joe/world-calculations.pdf
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/guest/lalonde-joe/world-calculations-2.pdf
Joe said:
The stupid, it hurts. (It’s a side-stitch from laughing too hard)
Rather than couch potato criticize, why not tell what is wrong?
No doubt quoted from some theory or out dated law that did not have the advances of today.
We can always count on Chief to stick up for someone like Joe.
Civs have trouble distinguishing gravity from conservation of momentum and inertia. That’s why they are civs.
I am glad the comments are not google indexed. No one will ever stumble on the stupid of joe or chief except accidentally.
Showing your ignorance of following everything by “consensus scientists” no matter correct or not.
Actual evidence is not a big requirement of the current biased scientists and publishers of garbage science. Just the government funding for this by an enclosed system of like-minded zombies.
Civil engineers don’t have any trouble at all in distinguishing inertia from gravity – it would seem to be central to everything from fluid dynamics – my field – to road geometry. You still haven’t said just what you are qualified in? It is obviously not anything to do with physics because you keep getting it wrong. It seems that a simple reading suggests that both inertia and gravity were being discussed.
Judith – again this person has crossed the line. His one purpose is to opportunistically abuse, enigrate and mislead.
I am always just appalled at your rudeness, bullying and disparagement – so I tend to want to intervene. And then you have such a limited understanding of anything relevant really that you are inevitaly wrong as well – so it is an easy target delivered dispassionately. Your only response is ad hom and arm waving. Suggesting that I failed to distinguish between inertia and gravity because my undergraduate degree was in civil engineering. Demonstrable nonsense of course.
I don’t know what you studied – you wont say or reveal your name – or do anything but hide behind your sockpuppet dropping in to everything and making comment without any scientific substance that can only be described as flaming and lots of arm waving. Forgive me for not being impressed.
In out Australian Parliament our PM is looking at overwhelming electoral defeat at the next election, not only for her failure to honour her promise not to introduce a carbon tax, but also for unequivocally endorsing, in a numbers’ game, two parliamentatians facing allegations of malpractice.
The Australian electorate is not going along with ‘ends justify the means’ type ‘morality.’
Beth Cooper | April 30, 2012 at 3:33 am |
Well, better Australia as moral example to the world than France, I guess.
Brandon Shollenberger | April 30, 2012 at 2:58 am |
Thanks, Brandon, but without some citations I fear I don’t know what you’re referring to. She has mentioned Gleick? Yes. Has she mentioned Michael Mann? Hard not to, and she condemned “hide the decline”.
But I don’t find a clear statement regarding their actions and public trust. Might be there and I missed it … which is why I need citations, not to where she mentions dishonesty, but to where she speaks about the consequences in the loss of trust.
It’s the same problem I discussed in my post “I love ya, Judith, but you’re way wrong“—she has been claiming since the beginning that this is a communication problem. And she continues, as in this case, to toss out people’s claims that the issues do not include loss of trust, but instead that the problems are things like “Abstractness and cognitive complexity” … riiiight …
Here’s an example of the problem with your claims. You seem totally convinced that Judith discussed people misleading the public as “communication strategies” … but a google search of her site returns the following:
… which is why I’m asking for citations, when a man starts either making up or erroneously reporting quotations he loses credibility on my planet.
w.
As I just coincidentally pointed out in this thread, the comments here have not been indexed by Google since sometime late last year. Good luck finding anything that is not in a top-level post.
Willis, the near-total inability of climate-change skeptics to make book is evidence that Judith may be correct in wondering (as many folks are wondering) whether climate-change skepticism is associated to shortfalls in grasping “abstractness and cognitive complexity.”
By the way, with regard to the phrase “abstractness and cognitive complexity” … WIllis, where did Judith say the phrase that your post ascribes to her?
What’s the full context of the quote?
Joy
I’m not personally a gambler (I even try to stay out of the stock market as I think its a casino) but what odds will you give on Hansen’s suggestions of a possible rise of up to 15 Metres?
tonyb
Happy to oblige, climatereason. Here’s a book on sea-level rise of 15 meters (or more).
• Within
years (or sooner): 999/1000 odds;
This is because the sun itself is warming.
If we further assume that present rates of carbon-burning are sustained until the CO2 levels treble relative to 19th century levels, then stabilize:
• Within
years (or sooner): 9/10 odds;
• Within 500 years (or sooner): 3/5 odds;
• Within 250 years (or sooner): 2/7 odds;
• Within 100 years (or sooner): 1/50 odds;
• Within 10 years (or sooner): 1/10000 odds;
The overall reasoning is that a sustained energy imbalance *will* melt the polar icecaps … the main uncertainty that sets the odds is, how fast?
Joy
Hmm. Lots of assumptions. Lots of strange odds. Poker Guy’s the Man.
Tonyb
Joe Black,
I don’t believe your odds are based on appropriate information.
The planet has been cooling for the past 50 million years. Ice began accumulating at the South Pole 35 million years ago and at the North Pole 5 million years ago.
Once ice accumulated the planet started cycling in and out of ice ages. The more ice that accumulated the worse the cycles became. We are now cycling in and out of ice ages on a 100,000 year period.
Sea level rose 140 m in the past 20,000 years, since the last glacial maximum.
Sea level was higher than now in the previous interglacial periods. Therefore, it is likely that sea levels will be around the present level plus or minus 10 m, for a brief period (around 5,000 to 10,000 years),during the next interglacial, which can be expected around 100,000 years from now.
The warming of the Sun is irrelevant because the rate of warming is too slow to be relevant – just 3% increase in the past 500 million years.
I agree, with Chief Hydrologist: sea level may be around 0.5 m higher plus or minus in 2100. But so what? That is easily manageable. I doubt there will be any significant economic cost to such a sea level rise, given we are always turning over infrastructure and improving our ability to cope with environmental changes. Even if it happens in steps, it’s still a minor problem. Brisbane was flooded a year or so ago, and they are virtually over it already with little damage to the economy.
In contrast, the economic cost of the proposed CO2 tax and ETS will be huge and will not make the slightest difference to sea levels.
Peter, it’s becoming evident that the great majority of climate-change skeptics are cognitively incapable of specifying probabilities other than “0” or “1”.
Which is peculiar, since from a rationally skeptical point-of-view, “0” or “1” are illogical probabilities.
Peter, you’ve come closer than any other skeptic to grasping this mathematical point … so why not fill-in some odds? :smile:
*** Sea-Level Rise for Year 2100 ***
• Rise of 0 meter (or greater): ____/____ odds;
• Rise of 1 meter (or greater): ____/____ odds;
• Rise of 2 meter (or greater): ____/____ odds;
• Rise of 3 meter (or greater): ____/____ odds;
• Rise of 4 meter (or greater): ____/____ odds; and
• Rise of 5 meter (or greater): ____/____ odds;
• Over-under: ____________ meters rise in the year 2100.
If we further assume that present rates of carbon-burning are sustained until the CO2 levels treble relative to 19th century levels, then stabilize, then we have
*** The 5-Meter Rise Proposition Book ****
years (or sooner): ____/____ odds
• Within
• Within 500 years (or sooner): ____/____ odds;
• Within 250 years (or sooner): ____/____ odds;
• Within 100 years (or sooner): ____/____ odds;
• Within 50 years (or sooner): ____/____ odds;
• Over-under: year ____________ for 5-meter sea rise.
——————————
Rule 1: “5/7 odds” means this: a bet of 5 receives a payout of 7, for a net better’s profit of 2.
Rule 2: The book accepts bets in either direction. Example proposition-with-odds: “Rise of 1 meter (or greater): 5/7 odds” means the book accepts bets of 5-to-win-7 that the sea-level rise is 1 meter (or greater), or with equal willingness, the book accepts bets of 2-to-win-7 that the sea-level rise is less than one meter.
Rule 3: In the real world of bookmaking, the book exacts a small surcharge on the payout, such that by accepting bets on either side of the proposition, profits are guaranteed (the above tables ignore the surcharge).
——————————
Well, here’s a paragon of scepticism. Tell me Joy, how did you determine this? How many climate-change skeptics do you think there are? What percentage did you poll to come to this conclusion? Do you think your sample is adequate? Could it be biased? Did you ask them directly about specifying probabilities or did you just infer it yourself (IOW: make it up)?
Did you realise that making such hasty generalisations is a massive critical thinking fail?
Hmm. I think we’ve solved the energy crisis. Just wrap a coil around Andrey Kolmogorovs grave, attach magnets to his skeleton, and then have Joy make proclamations about probabilities. The energy output generated by Kolmogorov spinning in his grave will be phenomenal.
Never mind, Joy. You keep making up numbers which reaffirm your prior views, labelling them “probabilities” and thinking you are somehow doing something meaningful. And give us some more analogies about systems you don’t actually understand. That was a hoot.
Look it is quite obvious that sea level rise will be half a metre or so unless there are major climate shifts – such as the one that started in 1998/2001 resulting in a cooler influence for another decade or three.
If you can’t grasp these concepts – despite the long comment in response and many links to peer reviewed and authoritative sources – Woods Hole, NAS – and even a link to realclimate – this is your conceptual shortfall. You are just playing games with words. Not acting in good faith at all but simply wanting to play gotcha. This is something not in the spirit of the blog – or indeed consistent with the rules – and you are not worth any more of my time or attempts to seriousy engage.
On what time-scale, chief? Because definitely you and I agree, that folks who are unwilling to consider risks on multiple, extended time-scales, cannot rationally analyze these issues.
Same timeframe as the IPCC of course – this century. I disn’t give a second thought to your silly game.
“the near-total inability of climate-change skeptics to make book is evidence that Judith may be correct in wondering (as many folks are wondering) whether climate-change skepticism is associated to shortfalls in grasping “abstractness and cognitive complexity.” ”
What a crock!
‘evidence’, heh. Well, something is evident. I’d bet on it.
===========
Willis Eschenbach, I want to start off with the most serious part of your comment:
Quotation marks don’t necessarily mean words are being quoted. They can also mean the words are being used in a non-standard way. Intentionally misleading people is not something which qualifies as an actual communication strategy, hence I put quotation marks around the words to show it was mockingly used.
As for citations, there are a few different blog posts I remember covering this subject, but the one which stuck most in my mind was this one. In it, she discussed lying being promoted as a good thing, and expressed her dismay at the idea that it could be strategically effective.
I’m not sure how you’d miss it in posts like this one when there is a section of the post titled, “Loss of trust.” I think that, plus saying if people respond properly, “the damage from this potentially can be contained,” is a clear indication that there’s a loss of trust involved.
Nothing in Curry’s post “claims that the issues do not include loss of trust.” I stressed this exact point to you earlier. Talking about some problems does not preclude there being other problems. Why would you possibly say she is doing this?
Brandon Shollenberger | April 30, 2012 at 3:28 pm | Reply
If so, it was a communications fail. You said:
The construction ‘did she discuss [it as] “communications strategies” ‘ clearly implies that you are quoting her words …
But in any case, I certainly retract my statement and apologize for my misunderstanding.
Again and again she puts up people who are saying that the issue is communications. Look, the AGW folks had the world by the tail. They had everyone convinced that CO2 was a huge problem.
Then came climategate and amazongate and himalayagate and the fakegate with Gleick and the revelations about the Hockeystick and the Jesus paper and Mann lying to the Congressional Committee and destroying evidence and lots and lots more.
And now, people don’t believe climate scientists and they don’t trust climate scientists.
You say “Talking about some problems does not preclude there being other problems.” But at this point, claiming that the reason for the drop in trust is a communications problem is either willful blindness, activism, or stupidity. If the AGW folks had communications difficulties, they never could have convinced most people in the first place …
For years the AGW proponents had the full and blind support of the media, of the educational institutions, of the world governments, of the UN root and branch, and of the complacent scientific societies. Funny how no one thought they had a “communication problem” back then … and their communication methods haven’t changed … so where’s the real problem? Not in communications, we know that for sure, because the same communications methods were very successful before.
That’s my difficulty with Judith. Over and over she puts up bloviating puff pieces like this one, claiming the problem is “Abstractness and cognitive complexity” … how come that wasn’t a problem five years ago?
There was the same “abstractness” and the same “cognitive complexity” back then, and they had people believing every word of it … not one person was saying that CO2 was too cognitively complex at the time.
So when Judith posts (and thereby promotes) this bogus explanation, I’m sorry, but that’s not discussing “other problems”. That’s a jive attempt to shift focus away from the lying and cheating.
w.
Willis Eschenbach, I’m tired of responding to you. Whether intentionally or unintentionally, you make it impossible to have a reasonable dialogue. You asked me to provide citations showing Judith Curry discusses dishonesty causing a people to lose trust in the claims regarding global warming. I did. You then responded by ignoring what I said.
Instead of addressing what I actually said, you go off on a rant filled with the exact same point I’ve rebutted multiple times. The rebuttals you’ve acknowledged as true. Despite acknowledging the fact there can be multiple problems, and those problems can be discussed individually, you say:
Curry never claimed the reason for the drop was communication issues. You’re just making that up. You’re ranting and raving about a nonsensical point you’ve fabricated. I don’t know what your problem is, but it’s not one I’m interested in dealing with.
If you start considering what people say, maybe there will be some point in talking to you. Until then, feel free to shout your delusions from the rooftop.
Brandon, I can see why you might want to run away from the issues I raise, and that’s fine by me. Wrap your disappearance up in flowers and bows, you can pretend what you want.
My point is that as I said, Judith has indeed discussed issues of trust, and I listed some examples, as did you.
But she continues (as in this post) to put up claims that have nothing to do with trust, but are based on the strong assertion that the issue is a communications problem.
It’s not a communications problem. It has nothing to do with communications.
I know you would prefer to hightail it away from the discussion rather than acknowledge that the communications now (when it’s not working) is the same as the communications then (when it was working). As a result, all the claims about things like the “blamelessness of unintentional action” are just high-priced wanting. It was just as blameless five years ago when their communications had everyone convinced, so that cannot be the reason their attempts to convince us are not working now.
But hey, if you want to bury your head in the sand and go na-na-na I can’t hear you, that’s your choice.
w.
Willis Eschenbach, I wouldn’t respond to you here, except you’re now making things up about me. I find it worthwhile to respond to that sort of thing:
I am not running away from anything. I made a good faith effort to have a discussion with you. I only decided to stop because you ignored things I said and flagrantly made things up. Fortunately, the disagreement is extremely simple at this point, so anyone reading our exchange can easily judge it for themselves.
To repeat it, Judith Curry has never said “the issue is a communications problem.” You are making that up.
Brandon Shollenberger | April 30, 2012 at 6:34 pm |
Yeah, those are the flowers and bows I said above that I was expecting you to wrap your departure up with …
Regarding your claim that
try this quote of Judith’s on for size (emphasis mine):
OK, core values have become compromised. Ready for Judith’s solution, Brandon?
Like I said … she claims that the issue is a communications problem, and that to solve it what scientists need is effective communications.
Clear now?
w.
PS—Here’s Judith again (emphasis mine):
Now Brandon, you claimed:
The quote above shows her discussing her solutions to the communications problem, the one you claim she has never discussed … I’m not making up anything, Brandon.
willis, you confuse my reporting on what other people say as my own words. I have criticized heavily the arguments that the problems facing climate science could be eliminated with better communication.
Willis Eschenbach, you’ve reached the point where I cannot form complete sentences while responding to anything you say. Your ability to read simple sentences as meaning anything other than what they actually mean is too dumbfounding. I mean, the least absurd thing you said was:
And that says a lot. So yeah, keep shouting your delusions from the rooftops. If you keep making things up, maybe people will get confused and forget what was actually said. Heck, maybe that’s what happened to you.
In the meantime, I’ll be over here in the real world.
Brandon and Willis, i will put you out of your misery on this one. Several years ago, Willis misinterpreted my “building trust” essay, with his “Judith I love ya but . . .” essay which garnered him some MSM attention. Willis likes the meme that I think the climate problem is one of communication. Which is colossally incorrect, as several hundred thousand words on this blog attest, not to mention my public talks. Brandon, you seem to understand my perspective pretty well.
The heart of the AGW social movement is not science. At heart AGW is a social dysfunction.
Here is one good essay that describes this dysfunction and offers historical examples:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/30/why-climate-science-is-a-textbook-example-of-groupthink/
curryja
I’d hope everyone would. It’s not like you’ve made any secret of it.
Willis,
“Therefore scientists need to do everything possible to make sure that they effectively communicate uncertainty, risk, probability and complexity, and provide a context that includes alternative and competing scientific viewpoints. This is an important responsibility that individual scientists and particularly the institutions need to take very seriously.”
Substitute “stop lying about”, for “effectively communicate”. I think that is what she means. She is just being polite to her colleagues. And calm down. You don’t think clearly when you get this upset. Brandon is on your side.
Don Monfort:
No, it isn’t. Effectively communicating something obviously cannot be done if you lie about it, but it also involves a great deal more than honesty. People can easily wind up confused or mislead without there having been any dishonesty involved. Dishonesty is a problem, but it’s not the only problem.
As evidenced by him saying insane things like I claimed Judith Curry didn’t say there is a communications problem despite the fact I referred to her discussing that exact problem. Multiple times.
Or him apparently being unable to grasp the obvious difference between “a problem” and “the problem.” Or the difference between referring to “the communications problem” and saying “the problem is a communications problem.” Or the… you get the point.
When did I wind up on a side?
By the way, it’s worth pointing out most of the dishonesty which happens in climate science would be impossible if the scientists effectively communicated like Judith Curry wants. It’s difficult to exaggerate things while fully communicating uncertainties.
Of course, that means they have to effectively communicate the science, and everything which goes along with it. They can’t just effectively communicate a message they like.
Brandon, before they can communicate the uncertainty, they must understand the uncertainty. That is the scary part. Trenberth et al in print, peer reviewed, stated that the modeled accuracy of the TOA energy imbalance was 0.9 +/- 0.18Wm-2. In that same paper, Trenberth et al missed 20Wm-2 of atmospheric absorption. The Steig et al Antarctic warming paper was laughable. It is scary stupid Brandon. I do not see how anyone could have faith in the science published claiming to be climate science. .
capt. dallas 0.8 +/-0.2:
That is true. Presumably, effectively communicating the science would require actually doing the science.
Given there are tens of thousands of papers published on the subject, I can’t imagine how you’d draw conclusions from two papers. The Steig paper you referred to clearly shows a publication bias which favors bombastic claims in support of global warming concerns, just like Mann’s work did, but that’s because of the prominence they were given.
Junk papers get published all the time, in all fields. That doesn’t discredit the work in those fields. It shouldn’t discredit climate science. What it should do is discredit the institutions which push global warming without any concern for accuracy.
But if you want to say the work of thousands of scientists studying climate should be dismissed based on the work of a few, you’re going to get scoffed at a lot.
I am pretty used to getting scoffed at. In most fields, poor papers and poor paper writers then to migrate to lower levels of responsibility. It would seem to me that the thousands of authors of the thousands of good papers would rise to the top instead of dragging the few authors of the few poor papers to the top with them. Instead, the obvious publication bias and ridiculously inadequate papers are embraced by the few to the detriment of the many. Something odd about that.
Brandon,
“No, it isn’t.”
Yes, it is. And if it isn’t, it should be. As Willis pointed out so correctly, they had no trouble communicating, before Climategate. They even had Judith fooled. They were not telling the whole truth, deliberately. They were actively trying to shut off dissenting views. Those things that Judith said they must effectively communicate were not being communicated honestly. It’s not that they just forgot to talk about those issues.
I said that you and Willis are on the same side, because I believe that you both are interested in an honest debate about the science. Perhaps I am wrong about one, or both of you. Maybe you can straighten me out on that.
“Given there are tens of thousands of papers published on the subject, I can’t imagine how you’d draw conclusions from two papers. The Steig paper you referred to clearly shows a publication bias which favors bombastic claims in support of global warming concerns, just like Mann’s work did, but that’s because of the prominence they were given.”
Now you are picking on the captain. Do the thousands of other climate scientists have socks in their mouths? Why don’t they object to junk being given prominence in their field of science. Got nothing to do with keeping the grants coming?
Don Monfort:
You’re not seriously saying intentionally misleading people counts as effectively communicating the “uncertainty, risk, probability and complexity” of the science, are you? You’re not claiming “trying to shut off dissenting views” qualifies as “provid[ing] a context that includes alternative and competing scientific viewpoints,” as Judith Curry says needs to be done, right?
The fact people were able to successfully communicate a message not supported by the science in no way says anything about effectively communicating the science.
After seeing Willis Eschenbach’s behavior on this site, I have my doubts about him wanting an honest debate. Or at least, I have my doubts that he wants that more than he wants other, conflicting things. However, that’s not important. What’s important is I’ve never considered expecting people to behave as they should qualifies as putting a person on a side. Is there actually a side which just says, “Do what you’re supposed to do”?
How am I picking on anyone by disagreeing with them? When did saying, “You’re wrong, and this is why,” become bullying?
This makes no sense. He talked about having no faith in anything “claiming to be climate science.” It is silly. The fact some scientist didn’t speak up about Mann’s hockey stick has no bearing on his study of how long-term weather patterns are affected by deforestation.
You can complain all you want about people not speaking up against bad work, even though a lack of public criticism for popular work is a common phenomenon, but that doesn’t somehow impugne the credibility of the work of every person in the field. It doesn’t mean you can idly dismiss the work of thousands of people who just don’t want to get involved in controversial issues.
For most climate scientists, it does have nothing to do with that. Rarely does one’s reason to stay away from controversial issues have to do with money.
You are talking a lot of nonsense today, Brandon. You need a rest. For example:
“By the way, it’s worth pointing out most of the dishonesty which happens in climate science would be impossible if the scientists effectively communicated like Judith Curry wants.”
They can be effective communicators, yet be very dishonest at the same time. I don’t think I have to point out any examples from recent human history. Read my lips, Brandon. The problem is not effective communication. They don’t want to effectively communicate the uncertainty and all that other stuff. It don’t help their cause.
“Given there are tens of thousands of papers published on the subject, I can’t imagine how you’d draw conclusions from two papers.”
Those were examples, Brandon. Referring him to thousands of other papers does not refute his point that prominent papers, that have gone unchallenged by thousands of climate scientists, are junk. And if prominent papers are junk, how many of the thousands of obscure papers are junk also?
“Junk papers get published all the time, in all fields. That doesn’t discredit the work in those fields.”
It does when the junk is made prominent and is used to advance a cause, and virtually all the people in those fields keep their mouths shut about it being junk.
Willis is overzealous. He is often wrong. I have seen him admit it once. He is not dishonest. Ask Mosher. You have just had your chain jerked too hard and you are upset. Cool off.
I will give you the last word. Got better things to do than to argue with someone I respect and agree with almost all the time.
Don Monfort:
If you “respect and agree with [me] almost all the time,” you should perhaps consider the possibility you are wrong to disagree with me now. For example, you say:
There is nothing in my comments which would indicate I am upset, so why would you think I am? If you realize you are wrong on that point, perhaps you’ll take the time to reconsider your position on another point:
If you take some time to try to understand what I’m saying, I’m confident you’ll see this is completely non-responsive. I did not say these people need to be better communicators. I said dishonesty would be mostly impossible “if the scientists effectively communicated like Judith Curry wants.” How does Curry want them to communicate? She wants them to:
Neither Curry nor I have ever said scientists just need to get better at communicating. We’ve both specifically said they need to get better at communicating certain things. What you just called nonsense was me saying if scientists “effectively communicate uncertainty, risk, probability and complexity…” and so on, the amount of dishonesty will be greatly reduced.
You’ve simply misunderstood/misinterpreted what I (and Curry) are saying. The same is true for Willis Eschenbach. What Curry and I would like to see is scientists become effective communicators of the science, something which would necessarily require more honesty.
OK, I will go one more round.
“You’ve simply misunderstood/misinterpreted what I (and Curry) are saying. The same is true for Willis Eschenbach. What Curry and I would like to see is scientists become effective communicators of the science, something which would necessarily require more honesty.”
So, more honesty is a necessary requirement for effective communication of the science. If you look at my entry into this thread, you will find me explaining to Willis that Judith is talking about honesty, when she says “effectively communicate”. According to Brandon, that puts you, myself, and Judith on the same page. How is it that you have me confused with Willis? Is it the haircut?
I understand what Judith is doing. I don’t have any issue with the way Judith conducts herself. Never said I did. I admire and respect her. If you share Judith’s concerns then we are OK.
You should shut up now. But if you are feeling apologetic, or particularly petulant, you are welcome to the last word.
Don Monfort, your latest comment was very strange. You say you, Judith Curry and I all agree. That’s good. However, you say:
This is quite different than what happened in your comment just before this one. There, when I made the exact same point, you said:
I made the exact point you claim to have agreed with, yet when I did, you contradicted me. You disputed the very point you claim to agree with, and you now question why I said you misunderstood/misinterpreted the point. If you didn’t misunderstand/misinterpret anything, why did you contradict the very point you say you agree with?
You falsely claimed I was “upset” and should “cool off.” You falsely claimed I was picking on someone. I pointed out both of these were untrue, and you ignored me. You now tell me I “should shut up now.”
I believe people who strive for reasonable discussions can resolve/settle their disagreements. You aren’t doing so. Storming off without even trying to correct errant comments is a sure way to make a conversation end badly.
But hey, at least you apparently agree with Curry and I. That’s something.
Willis, you might find my post at April 29, 2012 at 10:03 pm pertinent.
You are being pedantic and stubbornly stupid, Brandon. When I said it is not necessary to be honest to effectively communicate, I was talking in a general sense. And it’s obviously true.
We are discussing how climate science can be effectively communicated, presumably because we are interested in an honest representation of the science. From here on out, I don’t care what your shifting/shiftless position is, but it seems obvious to me that Judith came to a point in her life, when she decided that climate science was not being communicated honestly. When she talks about effective communication of the uncertainties etc., I am pretty sure she is talking about doing it honestly FOR A FREAKING CHANGE, rather than with a slicker PR effort. After all, as Willis correctly pointed out, with all of their advantages they did just fine in selling their BS, before Climategate. Bye now.
Don Monfort, what kind of discussion do you expect with comments like:
You ignore large portions of what I say and insult me, and yet, you claim I’m the one who is upset. You level multiple false accusations against me, refuse to admit they were wrong, and claim I am the one who needs to “cool off.” It makes no sense.
This makes no sense either. I specifically said dishonesty would be mostly impossible if scientists did what Curry and I want. You responded by saying:
What part of that says, “I agree”? What part of my comment would cause you to say, “The problem is not effective communication”? The answer is, none. Nothing you said could possibly follow from my comment if we’re to believe what you say now. There is no logical connection between what I said, and what you claimed to have said.
If you did mean what you said “in a general sense,” why did you say it in response to something which guaranteed your comment was non-responsive? Why did you talk about “effective communication” in a way that could only create confusion? Why didn’t you say a single word to indicate you agreed with me? There is no possible way anyone would have interpreted your comment the way you claim it was intended.
If you want to be rude to me, you can. If you want to flat-out insult me, you can. If you want to do these things while claiming I am upset, you can. If you want to do these things while ignoring the fact you’ve made things up about me, you can. But none of that will encourage a reasonable discussion. None of that will advance anything. All it can do is waste time, cause negative feelings, and make people take the discussion less seriously.
So goodbye for the third time. Hopefully this time you won’t come back just to insult me.
This has become very tedious, but I have decided to come back to insult you again. I don’t know if it is the third or fourth time, as I have not been keeping track. Really, you are being pedantic and stubbornly stupid. That is not your usual behavior. Check yourself.
I ignore large parts of what you say, because you just keep repeating your largely irrelevant argument against Willis, and I ain’t Willis. Willis is correct:
the reason that the CAGW consensus crowd are not having their way with the public these days is not about poor communication skills, or the lack of opportunity, or the lack of support from political establishments all over the world, or a lack of lackeys in the dominant left-stream media. It’s because they have been dishonest, and they got caught. Willis is wrong, in expecting Judith to be as blunt about it as he is. He doesn’t walk in her shoes.
“What Curry and I would like to see is scientists become effective communicators of the science, something which would necessarily require more honesty.”
Judith doesn’t need you to hold her hand. Why don’t you stop the effective communicators BS, and just say you would like them to start telling the truth? Or can you name something more important that they should be doing to become effective communicators of the science? Are physicists, and geologists having communication problems? Does 69% of the public believe that entomologists are faking it? Work on your story, Brandon. I will come back in a week or so. You are starting to remind me of josh. I don’t miss that little putz.
Don Monfort:
I can’t imagine anyone saying this and thinking they’re behaving in anything resembling a reasonable manner.
If you didn’t keep saying you’d stop posting, then almost immediately posting again, it’d be easier on you.
Again, you leveled false accusations against me. You refused to address them. And you claim my behavior has issues. You’ll forgive me for not caring what you think of me even as you make things up about me.
Because neither Judith Curry, nor I, are idiots. We both know it takes more than some people stopping their dishonesty to solve anything.
Wow. Just wow. You know what? I’m done with you. You’re behavior is far too pathetic to continue responding to. When you quit making things up about people in order to criticize them, quit insulting people just to insult them, and actually address the things you’re obliged to address, maybe we can talk again. But if you’re not going to even try to have a reasonable discussion, I’m not going to waste my time on you.
And no, I won’t be like you. This really is the end.
My posting seems to have dis appeared so I’ll re-post :
Bart, Can’t say we set ourselves up as a moral example to the rest of the world, we have a few wild ones here, lol, but there is a tradition, my dad upheld it, of ‘your hand shake’s your bond.’
Johanna @ 30/04 5.12am:
+1
R Gates
In saying that co2 started rising in 1750 are you trying to imply that Mans detrimental activities can be traced to that point? If so, Man can not live on this planet as we will always cause co2 and can never get back to the Adam and Eve days you seem to hanker over
tonyb
Human alteration of the climate might well predate 1750 via agriculture and land use changes, but I did not, and have not put the adjective “detrimental” in front of this as you did. Just because the Anthropocene may have started before 1750, does not mean that the Anthropocene is necessarily “detrimental”, whatever that might mean.
R Gates
Interesting that you are stretching the date of the so called Anthropocene. Bearing in mind large scale burning of forests and clearing of land has been going on ever since Man started farming I guess you could say it dates back 10000 years
Tony,
10,000 years might be a bit of a stretch, but I certainly think it was earlier than the 20th century. What ever point humans became the biggest single change agent on the planet, in its oceans and atmosphere. Ruddiman’s notion of it going back thousands of years is perhaps a bit extreme, but a case can be made for it I suppose. We’d have to know when this interglacial Holocene period began changing significantly from what it might otherwise have been sans human influence.
The International Committee on Stratigraphy is the group that gives the official names and boundaries to the various geological eras. The one we are in is called the “Holocene” until they say otherwise.
Calling it anything else is pure activism, not science. … not only that, the overweening hubris of naming an era after your own species seems to have escaped both you and the advocates of the name … what’s next, are you going to start calling the Jurassic the “Tyrannocene”?
w.
Willis,
Unless the T-Rex was the single biggest change agent on the planet, in terms of land, ocean, and atmosphere, it would make no sense to call it the Tyrannocene.
In regards to the official designation, yes, we are still “officially” in the Holocene, just like Pluto was officially a planet until it wasn’t.
The term Anthropocene is not activism, but clear and concise and useful terminology. Anyone who understands the implications of the term know exactly what you mean and the position you are coming from. I will continue to use it because it is a very useful and descriptive term. Humans are now the biggest single change agent on the planet, and this period of geological history, no matter how brief, will show up in future geological layers, and some future scientists looking at this period will know quite easily that homo sapiens were affecting the planet in a big way during this time period. It’s the Anthropocene Willis…deal with it, or better yet, learn to manage it.
R Gates said; ‘The term Anthropocene is not activism, but clear and concise and useful terminology’
Its only concise and useful if you can determine the start date. Care to name it?
Tony,
When did human activity become the dominant shaper of what goes on in the ocean, land, and atmosphere. I’ve travelled the world quite a bit, and studied it even more, and certainly humans are the dominant force for shaping the planet. The human fingerprint is everywhere. Even some advanced society studying our atmosphere from another solar solar system could readily identify the fingerprint of an intelligent species by the composition of the atmosphere alone. Finding a specific date is not required for making the term Anthropocene a very useful concept. Probably looking more at a general range is sufficient…. I think maybe 4000 – 5000 years ago is potentially close enough for me, though Ruddiman would place it more at about 8,000 years BP, and others much further, almost at the beginning of the Holocene. Certainly the activity of Homo Sapiens and effect on the planet during this interglacial makes this interglacial remarkable over any other in the past. few million years This is not seen just in the atmospheric composition, but in land use, agriculture, and our vast effect upon the oceans and biosphere.
R. Gates,
You are wrong about the ‘anthropocene’. Admit it, move on, or just become yet another troll.
Hunter,
I am quite confident that I am not “wrong” about the use of the word Anthropocene. It is quite descriptive and useful. If you can’t deal with it, it’s your problem, not mine.
R Gates
Interesting description thsnk you. Hubert Lamb probably researched the world condition more than anyone. He said;
“The idea of climate change has at last taken on with the public after generations which assumed that climate could be taken as constant. But it is easy to notice the common assumption that mans science and modern industry and technology are now so powerful that any change of climate or the environnment must be due to us. It is good for us to be more alert and responsible in our treatment of the environment, but not to have a distorted view of our own importance. Above all, we need more knowledge, education and understanding in these matters.”
Hubert Lamb DEC 1994
Hunter
There is no way that R Gates fits any description of a troll. He just has a different perspective
tonyb
tony
“R Gates said; ‘The term Anthropocene is not activism, but clear and concise and useful terminology’
Its only concise and useful if you can determine the start date. Care to name it?
#########
No. it is concise on its face.
it is also useful, if people find it useful. If it allows people to do what they intend to do with it.
Mosh replied to me;
No. it is concise on its face.
it is also useful, if people find it useful. If it allows people to do what they intend to do with it.’
Who did you say was your favourite philosopher?
R.Gates,
“Anthropocene” is just a made up term to make you and those who use it feel all sciencey. Use it more, for all I care. It is simply a quick tell that you are just another extremist believer in the AGW social dysfunction,
“Anyone who understands the implications of the term know exactly what you mean and the position you are coming from.” And need not read further.
We are entering the Marxocene.
Willis Eschenbach
What is your estimate of the climate sensitivity?
Could you show me the steps you used to arrive at that number?
I remember you had a URL list for most of your articles at WUWT. Could you provide me that URL please?
Thanks in advance.
I think that “climate sensitivity” is a non-linear function of temperature. As such I cannot assign it any value.
There’s an index to my earlier work at WUWT here, but it’s short the last fifty posts or so of the 240+ posts I’ve published there. Always more to do …
w.
Sensitivity is defined as the change in C given a change in forcing or Watts.
You can assign a value, you do in fact assign it a value.
Question: The earth currently sees around ~1361 watts from the sun.
If, we increase this forcing will C go up or down?
Sensitivity in a non-linear system depends on proximity to tipping points. Highly sensitive close to bifurcation and not sensitive otherwise.
Steben Mosher: This is an idiotic assumption of yours and it is wrong. Without knowing how CO2 affects the spectrally integrated OLR because of water vapor, clouds and the hydo cycle, a straight absorption off of CO2 is meaningless. That is radiation basics, Steve, but not surprising that warmers like you don’t understand it, especially someone who doesn’t understand that HARTCODE is high resolution radiative transfer code and was used by Miskolzci to get get a more precise measurement of the spectral lines covering the various GHG’s and claims it is just some sort of a look up data base like you claimed to me upthread.
It is generally preferable to refrain from insults, ad homs and gross overuse of emoticons – I have found from experience. Steven is unfailingly polite and others find it entertaining and are willing to go to any lenghths.
Chief Hydrologist:
Are you serious? Mosher, unfailingly polite? You apparently haven’t read enough of his exchanges. He is anything but polite on a fairly regular basis.
Steven, once again I will point out the deep ambiguity in your concept of sensitivity. Is the change in C you refer to the one if nothing else happens, or is it the one in the real world? For example, suppose we double CO2 levels and an abrupt event also occurs, unrelated to the CO2 forcing. The temp goes up 5 degrees. Does this make the sensitivity 5 degrees? Suppose the next ice age kicks in and the temperature goes down 5 degrees? Is the sensitivity minus 5 degrees? These are actual possibilities.
Or is the sensitivity just an abstract physical concept such that we would first have to separate the CO2 forcing from everything else going on to find out what it was? In the latter case it is not policy relevant, because there is a great deal going on besides CO2 forcing, which we do not yet understand.
In fact willis all of your work assumes a value for climate sensitivity, you just havent calculated it.
Steven Mosher: In fact willis all of your work assumes a value for climate sensitivity, you just havent calculated it.
I think that you are wrong about that. Much of Willis’ work has gone into showing that increased temperatures cause increased cloud cover, which is a negative feedback that produces subsequent reductions in temperature. In that work, there is no meaningful single “climate sensitivity” that can be calculated. Depending on the temperature, an increase in CO2 could cause an increase in temp (for some length of time), a decrease in temp (for some length of time) or no net change change (over some length of time.)
As far as I can tell, there is not a good reason to assume that there is a “climate sensitivity” — it is something that is in some models, a consequence of other assumptions in different models, and not in other models in any way.
And you haven’t either, Steve Mosher because your assumptions are wrong.
Thanks Willis.
Willis
That gorilla scratching his head ”thinking of the URL” is a nice one!
If I ever wrote a paper like that, I would not know that I ought to seek help. If an engineer ever wrote a paper like that, they would not be an engineer. There is a reason that papers like that come out of sociology departments. And there is a reason why engineering school buildings are NEVER located near sociology dept. buildings. Indeed, many colleges that have engineering schools don’t have sociology dept’s at all. They are essentially equivalent to matter and anti matter. With a slight difference, only the engineers get sick when they come into contact with sociologists. Whereas the sociologists completely misapprehend the reason the engineer is sick. With their (mis)diagnosis in hand, they then seek to “help” the engineers, blissfully unaware that it is their mere presence that causes the revulsion.
Patriotic Duo, it was way back in 1964 that Bob Dylan wrote The Times, They Are A-Changing … and that is about how long ago — has it really been 48 years!?! :shock: — the attitudes of engineers toward sociologists & historians changed … for the positive.
As examples, please let me commend to readers of Climate Etc. works like Stephen B. Johnson’s The Secret of Apollo: Systems Management in American and European Space Programs, and Harry Collins’ Gravity’s Shadow (about gravity-wave detectors), and George Dyson’s recent Turing’s Cathedral (about the early history of computers).
James Hansen’s recent Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature (arXiv:1110.1365v3) is a work very much in this unified tradition of science, sociology, and history.
Have fun learning, everyone! :smile:
Operations research vs story telling. Now 1st year engineering student – please pick one.
Joy Black writes “Pokerguy, that’s because neither you, nor any other climate-change skeptic, has filled-out a sea-level-rise tote-board.”
You are, please pardon the expression, full of it. How do you like these odds? I’ll give you 2-1 that the current 15 year span of no additional warming will continue another 3 years. If you have a problem with betting on moral grounds, we can stipulate that the loser must pay off to any charity the winner chooses.
LOL … pokerguy, in a world of large decadal fluctuations, short-term bets convey very little confidence … heck, even Anthony Watts no longer makes short-term skeptical predictions … ever since he (and WUWT readers) were burned making grossly wrong Arctic ice predictions in 2009-10! :smile:
That’s why a long-term “book” conveys massively more information than a short-term bet. Hmmm … perhaps I will consult the Wilmott super-quants as to whether such a climate-change book would be a feasible proposition — even on multi-decade time-scales — if options-and-derivatives trading were included in it.
It would be plenty of fun to watch skeptics and non-skeptics each try to make money off the other! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Joy Black | April 30, 2012 at 1:07 pm | Reply
Cite??
w.
Citations for WUWT/Anthony Watts’ sea-ice predictions:
• February 9, 2010, WUWT, Prediction: Arctic Ice Will Continue to Recover This Summer, by Anthony Watts
• May 19, 2011, WUWT, Sea Ice News – Call for Arctic sea-ice forecasts, plus forecast poll, by Anthony Watts
• October 6, 2011, Skeptical Science, Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent, by Dana1981
• June 8, 2011, September Sea Ice Outlook: June Report
It scares me that the science community has dug itself such a big pit for itself. It is fighting hard and dirty, even if it wrecks the very Western countries that have helped it flourish rather than admit it was wrong!
Dave: There is more at work here than just an asinine ego like Hansens, Schmidt’s and Ladbury, et.al. Hansen is on record of believing corporations are greed driven entities that pollute. Sounds like a personal vendetta to me. It seems like some who push AGW and CAGW believe in confiscating wealth and punishing aclaimed “polluters”. But in the meantime, it is perfectly OK for these “climate scientists” to ignore founding principles and real data that disprove ther assumptions and go about their merry way wasting billions of dollars on this crap at taxpayer expense. On that score, it is obvious who has become greedy and self serving and that isn’t the people that these “climate scientists” like pillaging.
However, there are people like Sir Paul Nurse, Nobel laureate, who hosted a highly deceptive Horizon program in the UK. Even though he is a biologist, he cannot fail to have realised that the words of climate change sceptics he interviewed were deliberately cut to sound nonsensical. Also, the editors of Nature can’t possibly be ignorant of what they are doing. I doubt whether any of those people are on a mission!
David and Chuck, the 2009 Nobel Award in Economic was for a plain common-sense theory of cooperation among citizens, corporations, and governments. It’s well-worth reading, and will help you to an appreciation that the economic analysis of that Hansen and his colleagues present in their Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature (arXiv:1110.1365v3) is well-founded in economic practices that are conservative, reasonable, and workable.
As for the slogan-shouting pundits of the Righteous Left and the Righteous Right … well … nowadays I mainly ignore slogan-shouting pundits of all kinds, and instead I read for myself what folks have to say for themselves. `Cuz ignoring the pundits just plain works better.
Joy: there is nothing reasonable about taxing, regulating or imposing any rules or behavior modification on a society that are based upon faulty and provenly wrong assumptions by Hansen and the baloney he has spread with his colleagues.
Considering how the game has been played out, there is a clear conflict of interest in Hansen making any sort of recommendations about this that would assure his continued employment and respect as a scientist.
Such proposals by him are like a bank robber telling the community we can do this with force or peaceful pillaging. My way would be to just give us what we know were entitled to and that way, I don’t have to use a gun. ( which is what the EPA is actually doing because the public rejects enough about AGW not to want any taxes or regulations imposed by the House or Senate )
The record is clear that Hansen does not deserve this respect or accomodation and neither do the others he asociates with. He has been much less than honest in his representations about how things work in climate and I see him as a discredited and disgraced scientist.
Is it reflexive nihilism or simple game thory as practiced by the Left that is lynx-eyed against Americanism?
Steven Mosher | April 30, 2012 at 1:17 pm | Reply
That’s, Steven. Let me see if I can explain why that’s not true.
Consider a house with a heating-airconditioning system. When it is cold, the system warms up the house. When it is hot, the system cools down the house.
If you assume, and it is a huge (and incorrect) assumption, that the temperature of the house is a linear function of the forcing (outside temperature), you can certainly take an annual average of the change of the inside temperature and an annual average of the change of the outside temperature. Divide one by the other, voilá, climate sensitivity … do you think that number means something?
Let’s consider a parallel situation. In the tropics, in the morning it’s cool and the heater is on in the form of clear skies and low evaporation. As a result, “climate sensitivity” is high, a small change in insolation leads to a large change in temperature.
Then the clouds kick in, and the “climate sensitivity” actually goes negative—there’s greater insolation but the temperature is dropping.
However, as the day goes on the temperature starts rising again … but at a much slower rate, particularly when the thunderstorms kick in.
Now, you you can certainly take an annual average of the change of the tropical temperature and an annual average of the change of the insolation. Divide one by the other, voilá, climate sensitivity.
But that average number doesn’t mean anything about the climate, no more than it does about my house, because in both systems there is a governor. The part you seem to be missing is that in a governed system, there is no linear relationship between inputs and output.
People often say “but it’s linear over the narrow range of the temperature” … no, it’s not. The narrow range of temperature of my house (or of the tropics) is a RESULT of the non-linearity of the temperature response to forcing in both system. As a consequence, it does not imply that there is any kind of linearity between input and output, even over a narrow range.
So yes, I could calculate some kind of average “climate sensitivity”, either for my house or for the climate, but it would be meaningless. The fact that you can calculate a long-term average means little about the underlying processes.
All the best,
w.
Grrrr … “That’s, Steven” in the opening of my post should be “Thanks, Steven”.
w.
WIllis, the non-skeptics are making increasingly successful climate predictions, while skeptics are falling-back to making no predictions at all.
Result If sea-level rise accelerates as Hansen and colleagues predict, skeptics will be left with no rational response.
Heck Willis, your very own cell phone routinely pulls a nanovolt of clean audio signal out of a microvolt of thermal RF noise in the cell-phone’s antenna … using amplifier transistors that have a grossly nonlinear response curve!
Yet by your too-skeptical reasoning, even ordinary cell phones cannot possibly work … `cuz transistors are too non-linear! So please let me recommend to you Horowitz and Hill’s Art of Electronics as a very physics-oriented introduction to the small-input response of strongly nonlinear dynamical elements.
Bottom Line Detailed physics-driven calculations + increasingly successful climate-change predictions surely beat hand-waving assertions that “it can’t work.”
Joy Black: You are full of baloney. Are you living in a vacuum? Have you even bothered to look at the success of these overarted heaps of junk called cliamte models?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/05/preview-of-cmip5ipcc-ar5-global-surface-temperature-simulations-and-the-hadcrut4-dataset/
There is a good run down by Bob Tisdale on GCM accuracy checking on version RCP 8.5 The model with the most computing power and ensemble members running this scenario can’t even hindcast natuarl variation over the last century! He has a lot more to offer on this as well. Better get to reading now…Chop! Chop!
She is not full of baloney. She is being optomisic–i.e., despite being wholly inaccuate in ‘predicting’ the past GCMs will be a very good at predicting the future. Honest! And, that is without verificaton. Just imagine how acccurate they would be if they could be verified. So accurate I bet that you can just take it on faith. We’re all doomed.
“The model with the most computing power and ensemble members running this scenario can’t even hindcast natuarl variation over the last century!”
Wow really? That’s completely at odds with all those skeptics who tell me the models are rigged to match the past!
Who to believe? The skeptics that claim the models can’t reproduce the past or the ones that claim the models are fudged to match it?
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/figure-9.png
Considering that the error bars for the models and observations are likely considerable, I consider that a good match. In fact I am stumped why you think this demonstrates the models are junk.
Who to believe? You who is essentially claiming the observational record, including the early 20th century surface temperature observations are accurate enough to compare to model output, or the other skeptics who tell me that the surface temperature record is corrupted and can’t be relied on?
It’s funny how often skeptics contradict themselves. I think it might be a side effect of basing ones position on needing to deny the science rather than basing ones position on what the science actually shows.
lolwot- You and Joy are now wrongly making citations. The WUWT article does not seem to state that sea level would not rise. It seemed to claim that the rate of rise was not per what those who fear CO2 claimed it would be. The rate is actually pretty steady at a rate of no concern
I stated that the WUWT article was not a prediction.
What it showed is that skeptics at WUWT were not expecting sea level to continue rising back in 2008. They would just as easily accept it going flat or even falling (in fact they would probably post-hoc claim they predicted such). Climate scientists on the other-hand expected sea level to continue rising, and they were right.
This happened again in 2010. WUWT and skeptics noted sea levels had fallen and even gone flat since 2010. Climate scientists expected it to continue rising. It has continued rising.
These are examples of potential falsification tests of AGW that are not being recognized as such. Each time this kind of thing happens it should strengthen people’s confidence in the theory.
lolwot
You again misrepresent the facts. There is no position on sea level rise by “climate scientists”. There are many scientists who have studied the issue, and there are many different positions. You wrongly believe there is some unified position. In 2008 there was excellent data that showed a trend for over 15 years. If anyone predicted a change to that trend in either direction they would need to explain the cause. There was nothing in the article claiming there would be a downturn
Once is was decided the ice on top of Greenland would not simply crack of the land and slide into the sea like a tot on Slip’n Slide, and that giving a name to an ice shelf in the Antarctic doesn’t mean we should all hold a wake when one the size of Rhode Island cracks off the block–especially when we see that Antarctic ice has been growing in some locations since the 70s, all of the empty-headed talk about rising sea levels sort of melted away like the ice in the margaritas in Cancun.
I am true to the facts.
“There is no position on sea level rise by “climate scientists”.”
There is. They expect sea level to continue rising due to a combination of ice melt and thermal expansion, both of which because they expect the world to continue warming.
The folk over at WUWT do not expect this. At best they will claim to not know what sea level will do. If they did think it would continue rising they wouldn’t wet themselves every time it goes flat for 3 years. WUWT skeptics are just as happy with it continuing rising as they are with it falling (and some of them even suggest sea level dropping in some new maunder minimum).
There’s only one group putting their predictions on the line and that’s the scientists. They’ve turned out right twice in a row now and it’s hard for skeptics to deny that because they were the ones who made all the fuss about the 2006-2008 and 2010-2012 flat periods. Even calling them inconvenient for AGW.
It will be likely to continue to rise at the rate of 3.4 mm per year for the next 20 years. This rate of rise is not a problem for humanity to adapt to the change.
here’s another example:
While not a prediction it certainly shows skeptics weren’t expecting sea level to continue rising back in 2008. Not *expecting* it.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/05/satellite-derived-sea-level-updated-trend-has-been-shrinking-since-2005/
There is only one group of people that did expect it. I think this kind of thing, each time it happens, should strengthen AGW. It’s a classic case of a theory surviving potential falsification.
Actually it is a case of theory saving.
You can peg one case in 2008 down to coincidence, but it’s happened again in 2010. After enough such cases one should start to wonder what are the chances that a theory keeps passing these tests by sheer chance?
Joy, “if” is a very big word.
And do yourself a favour and stay away from electronics if you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Joy Black | April 30, 2012 at 4:41 pm | Reply
Joy, if you believe that, then clearly you don’t understand what you call my reasoning.
In fact, it makes me wonder about your understanding of reasoning at all … I said NOTHING about cell phones. I said NOTHING about non-linear systems not being able to “possibly work”. I said NOTHING about transistors, I said NOTHING about any of that stuff … that’s all you and you alone.
Please, Joy, if you disagree with something I’ve said, QUOTE MY WORDS. At least that way we can see where you’ve gone wrong instead of, as now, being reduced to looking at the train wreck of your claims above and guessing where you went off the rails …
w.
OK. Brace yerself,gents! :smile:
————-
Willis Eschenbach: “In a governed system, there is no linear relationship between inputs and output (emphasis as in original)”
FAIL :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
————-
Peter317: “Do yourself a favour and stay away from electronics if you don’t know what you’re talking about.”
Peter317, it so happens that at our house, we floss with solder wick, tie our shoes with BNC cables, and instead of watching TV, we fire-up our good ol’ TekTronix oscilloscope! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Joy
Did the term “governed system” escape your notice or are you intentionally trying to misrepresent what others have stated?
You were warned about the lead poisoning ;-)
But seriously, judging from your original post, you don’t know the difference between QPSK and hamming codes.
Read a little deeper, Rob and Peter317 — it’s precisely the governing feedback that Willis’s post deplores, that tames the nonlinear gain transistors (or even vacuum tubes) of an op-amp, and yields the linear high-gain response that Willis’ post claims cannot happen.
But Willis need not feel embarrassed — history shows us that some mighty famous electrical engineers initially had considerable trouble appreciating this subtle physics.
um, Joy, A negative feedback amplifier sacrifices gain to obtain linearity. It GOVERNS the output by SACRIFICING, gain.through NEGATIVE feedback.
Joy
I have asked you before if you believe in Hansens predictions of up to a 15m rise but you don’t want to seem to answer
Climatereason, at your previous request, I *did* post numerical odds for a 15 meter rise … and you didn’t believe them.
Joy
How about posting where we can make these bets is they are actually offered. How about you and I wager on sea level rise over the next 20 years. What amount are you willing to wager it will be no less than? I say it will continue at about the current rate which is no problem.
Joy, again you are providing answers to a question I didn’t ask. You seem to have great faith in Hansen. I don’t because of his absurd predictions. Do YOU believe Hansen that levels will rise by up to 15m?
tonyb
Ermm… no.
Firstly, the amplifier in the receive chain of a mobile phone will be an LNA circuit. While the transistors in an LNA circuit do indeed have a non-linear response over their entire range, they are simply not used over that range. The transistors are biased such that they are always operating in their linear region. The only time they go outside is during saturation where performance drops off very sharply indeed.
Linearising methods such as negative feedback could not possibly work for an LNA in an RF system, because of the gain and bandwidth required.
The mobile phone works that way because it is constrained by design. Also, the transistor has a large linear region and it is easy to constrain it in that way. Who do you think constrained the earths climate by design? I’m not one for creationism so I don’t really see this being a credible position to take.
Joy Black wittily writes in response to my offer to take her up on a wager “LOL”
“LOL” is the last refuge of the Internet coward. 15 years of no additional warming despite ever increasing Co2 levels. I’m asking you to bet on what would now be 18 years. PLus, I’m offering to give you 2-1 odds…AND suggesting we donate the money to charity.
You can LOL all you want, Joy. But things are not moving in your direction.
“15 years of no additional warming”
wrong.
Pokerguy, it seemed prudent for us both to just give to charity directly … that way there’s less chance of unseemly quibbling about the reality of global energy imbalance.
That is an odd link to reference. The warming expected by the short spurt in solar insolation is virtually negligible without it being sustained. The general forecast for the next solar cycle is lower, possibly Dalton minimum like, so by the same logic there will be cooling, not warming.
Wait a minute, are they saying Climate Change is beyond human comprehension and is therefore a low moral priority? That’s absurd and thankfully people are discovering just how difficult it will be for any international law to contravene the United States Constitution or the Constitution of any State in the Republic. You want to talk morals, lets start with the Laws of Our Land.
Arizona has recently awakened to UN intrusion on State Rights; State of Arizona SENATE BILL 1507; http://www.azleg.gov/legtext/50leg/2r/bills/sb1507s.pdf
AN ACT
PROHIBITING THE STATE AND ITS POLITICAL SUBDIVISIONS FROM ADOPTING OR IMPLEMENTING THE UNITED NATIONS RIO DECLARATION ON ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT.
A. The state of Arizona and all political subdivisions of this state shall not adopt or implement the creed, doctrine, principles or any tenet of the United Nations Rio Declaration on Environment and Development and the Statement of Principles for Sustainable Development adopted at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in June, 1992 or any other international law that contravenes the United States Constitution or the Constitution of Arizona.
Bold emphasis was mine. Willis did a great post on UN Agenda 21 a while back, I hope he posts an update.
In January, the Republican National Committee has already passed a resolution to EXPOSE UN AGENDA 21 AND REJECT SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ICLEI. The Tea Party is now also engaged as are Democrats.
DEMOCRATS AGAINST U. N. AGENDA 21
http://www.democratsagainstunagenda21.com/
Its a start.
Joy, you seem to think that bookmaking is part of the scientific method, or rationality in general, it is hard to tell which. So what odds are you giving on the next ice age starting in, say, the following:
100 years
500 years
1,000 years,
5,000 years
10,000 years
As you may know, the present inter-glacial is already longer than the previous two.
I think what Joy is doing is getting people to provide a clear declaration of their position. It has nothing to do with science, it is to get people to commit to their beliefs on the matter.
I think what is interesting is it puts CAGW skeptics in well deserved corner. They are keen to stress the science is all very uncertain, but when it comes down to providing odds they will want to provide certain and small odds.
Odds of next ice age starting, based on my very limited understanding:
100 years: 2%
500 years: 5%
1,000 years: 10%
5,000 years: 40%
10,000 years: 80%
No, skeptics do not provide odds on ignorance. You do not know how the game is played. A 2% chance of an ice age beginning in 100 years justifies spending gadzillions, beginning now, on preparation.
We don’t know means just that. There are no odds to it.
http://junksciencecom.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/nature-geoscience-ice-age.pdf
We are probably no longer in an ice age.
David, if we keep burning carbon, then my prediction is simple: sustained high CO2 levels will melt the icecaps completely within the next 500-1000 years, with high probability (say 80%).
That’s a totally new climate regime for this planet, and its subsequent evolution could be almost anything. Like many folks have noted, injecting massive amounts of CO2 is a high-risk, uncontrolled, planetary-scale experiment whose foreseeable short-term effects are strong global warming + dramatic sea-level rise … and whose long-term effects are unknown.
Thus I will set the odds of an ice-age in 10,000 years (or any time sooner) at 1/500 or less. On the grounds that the citizens of Florida are far more likely to end up swimming within a couple centuries, than freezing within a few millennia.
So these so-called odds are just expressions of opinion, disguised as math. As I have said, they are worthless. We already know we disagree, so these silly numbers tell us nothing.
I assume you know that these massive amounts of CO2 are a small fraction of the massive amounts injected by nature. Hence the debate, which you choose to ignore.
I assume you know nature mops up it’s own CO2, plus some of ours.
That is the theory, not that I buy it. The point is that referring to our emissions as massive is a rhetorical trick, a lie if you like, or stupidity. I was checking which in Joy’s case.
If anything your “these massive amounts of CO2 are a small fraction of the massive amounts injected by nature” line is a rhetorical trick. It misleads people into thinking our emissions are too tiny to matter.
“So these so-called odds are just expressions of opinion, disguised as math. As I have said, they are worthless.”
Yes that’s the point of odds. They are meant to be expressions of opinion. And the whole point here is to see what your opinion is.
Do you think more than 1 meter sea level rise by 2100 is likely, unlikely, very unlikely, impossible, certain?
It’s not an impossible question to answer is it?
Joy Black: And what will you accomplish by trying to elimante carbon emissions? I calculated that there is 1.24E -10 ppmv/tonne of atmospheric CO2. The USA emits 5.8 billion metric tonnes per year. Do you possibly think you could wipe these out, even if you spread the reduction emissions globally? Get real! Reducing emissions by that amount would only reduce the annual CO2 growth by .72 ppmv or 28.8% of the current growth of 2.5 ppmv. It is obvious that unless the oceans cool off and a new equilibrium pressure is achieved by the oceans that no matter what you do, you will not be able to stop the current growth pattern. And that is what is plugged into climate model GCM’s models to project temperatures that are supposed to continue rising. If you put your thinking cap on you should realize CO2 sensitivity factors to temperature are completely dicked up because any mitigation strategy will fail its objective. It won’t come close by a long shot. This is lunacy at its best.
“even if you spread the reduction emissions globally”
what if you spread an even greater reduction in emissions globally?
Joy Black | April 30, 2012 at 6:09 pm |
Joy, put up or shut up. QUOTE MY WORDS if you disagree with them. I did not say that a “linear high-gain response” cannot happen, that’s your fantasy. I’m a ham radio operator, I am well aware how op-amps work because I’ve built them. Your misunderstandings of what I’ve actually said, while entertaining, are totally divorced from reality.
w.
Willis Eschenbach: “In a governed system, there is no linear relationship between inputs and output” (emphasis as in Willis’ original)
Willis, it’s a continuing pleasure to help remind you of the very many physical systems that are counter-examples this assertion. Yet another is the fully nonlinear, massively turbulent flow of air over the wing of a 747 on final approach. And yet despite this nonlinearity … very tiny inputs to the control surface of that wing, serve to control the 747’s final approach … linearly and predictably.
Hmmmm … could it be that our planet’s temperature responds to CO2 inputs, with the same predictability that a 747 responds to control inputs … even though in both cases the dynamics is entirely nonlinear … with CAGW as the foreseeable end-result? :oops: :sad: :cry: :shock:
And finally Willis, your thanks for my providing the citations that you requested, regarding failed WUWT sea-ice predictions, are noted and welcomed. :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Joy: are you an aviation expert, too? You stated that there is “massively turbulent” airflow over a 747 wing on final approacch and that inspite of that, only tiny control inputs are needed to control the aircraft on final approach and that the inputs are linear.
Wrong again, Joy. Laminar ( smooth ) air flow over any aircraft wing is a requirement to produce lift. Turbulent flow destroys lift and causes the wing to stall. It is also patently false that control inputs from the aircraft flight deck are linear. The slower the speed, the more control input that is needed to maneuver the aircraft. This includes the extension of wing slats and flaps to increase lift over the airfoil as speed is slowed. Aileron extension is also readily assisted by spoiler deployment in turn assist and rudder enhancement is also engaged by powered enhancement that is trimmed out at higher speed just like spoiler assisted turns are. This is ANYTHING but linear as you suggest. Really silly analogy but seems to follow your examples.
You again haven’t a clue as to what you’re talking about.
Chuck, your post’s assertion is factually wrong: the flow over an extended 747 wing-flap is fully turbulent. And that’s by design, because the massive drag of that turbulent flow is essential to slowing a 747 (or any large airliner) to a safe landing speed.
DC-10 picture here! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Joy: You didn’t say over the flap, you said over the wing and there is a difference. Regardless of that you are wrong about the rest of your assertions. I know beacuse I have flown jet transports. Someone with over 10,000 hours and an airline transport license like I posess knows quite a bit about aerodynamics.
@Joy: The picture reference you give is also a load of hooey. It is obvious the wing condensation flow is very laminar over the top. Any turbulent flow is when the air is exiting the foil at the rear where the vortices are generated. Slat extension also increases the amplitude of the laminar flow at the leading edge. That is necessary for higher lift generation at slower speed. You again, don’t know what you’re talking about.
Chuck, with respect, have you ever heard this two-line poem:
On a louder scale, when the landing gear drops we hear a roar, and when the flaps extend that roar gets louder, and in both cases that sound is emitted by turbulent vortices of air that are shed by the gear/flaps. And oftentimes one can see the flaps vibrate under the stress exerted by each shed vortex. So although the airflow starts its journey over the wing as smooth laminar flow, but it finishes that journey as noisy, draggy, turbulent flow.
The point, though, is that the aircraft responds smoothly and predictly to small control inputs, despite the noisy turbulence of the airflow. That is, up to a point. Because too-large control inputs can give rise to badly nonlinear dynamics. These large-input/bad-outcome scenarios create what pilots call “crashes” and what Hansen calls “CAGW.”
Joy: Your analogy stinks. It is wrong. The control inputs are not linear with slat and flap extension. The entire shape of the airfoil is changed to accomodate a slower stall speed and much larger control inputs are necessary to assist the aileron and rudder in turn coordination which includes spoiler assisted turns. Reconfiguration of an airfoil is anything but a linear process with varying speed.
So in your anology, the assumed linear feedback is wrong. Many non linear inputs are involved in slowing an aircraft fom Mach .82 to 150 knots at a weight of 400,000 lbs.
And your non linear response to climate as claimed by Hansen is also a proven wad of hooey. Hansen’s failed modeling assumes incorrectly that water vapor has a positive response to increasing CO2. ( That is your claimed non linear response to increasing CO2 that causes “the plane to crash” ) The 61 year NOAA record speaks otherwise as the water vapor column amount decreased by .649% from a mean of around 2.5 prcm’s. CO2 wa rising this entire time, yet the trends only changed with the start and finish of each PDO cycle. As Willis might say, Watt’s up with that?
Nonetheless, Chuck, on final approach the hands of a skilled pilot feel instinctively, what the autopilot knows quantitatively, that a small aileron input (of say 0.1 degrees deflection) will deterministically yield a small roll rate (of say 0.2 degree/second) … this even though the aircraft as a whole is a turbulent, vastly nonlinear system.
If effect, by dumping CO2 into the atmosphere in huge quantities, we are progressively flying our planet slower-and-slower, and lower-and-lower, and we now are entering a flight regime that is far outside the flight manual … and we are hoping that nothing too bad will happen.
This isn’t smart. :oops: :sad: :cry: :shock:
Joy: Well if your analogy is correct, why don’t you answer my post on calculated carbon reduction strategies that you are sold on and see if they make any sense in terms of what you think CO2 does to climate near the beginning of this conversation?
You seem to have blown off the question.
Joy,
Once again you are either by accident or deliberate choice being deceptive.
Joy,
I don’t get why you want to argue aerodynamics and aircraft performance with an experienced pilot, particularly when you think quoting poetry is an effective method for the topic.
The signal in and out are only part of the total input and output. The main power supply and the waste heat can fluctuation considerably while the signal, if gain is properly limited, can be ;linearly amplified. The CO2 “signal” is easily lost in the process though.
http://i122.photobucket.com/albums/o252/captdallas2/uahmidtropospheretropicsoceanminuslandwithleantsiwithlag.png
That is a rough match of the Solar TSI signal with its delayed temperature output in the mid-troposphere. To eliminate a good deal of the “noise”, it is compared to the tropical oceans minus the tropical land temperatures. So it is possible to dig out some of the signal with simple filtering.
Similarly, http://i122.photobucket.com/albums/o252/captdallas2/comparingCO2focingtoUAH.png the CO2 change can be teased out of the mid-troposphere data using the land only data. I don’t have the time or all the data, but I should be able to isolate the annual CO2 related swing somewhat after removing the solar “noise”.
The reason I use the mid-troposphere, is it is somewhat amplified as well due to the lower thermal mass. You can even compare atmospheric layers to tease out cloud impact, not as well as CERES, but not too badly for a hack with a laptop.
All this silliness with the satellite data tends to show that there was a climate shift circa 1995 where the oceans began to have negative heat uptake, as in starting to cool in the upper mixing layer. It also shows that the southern hemisphere surface temperatures are less accurate than the satellites and that they even have the wrong sign for the Antarctic temperature trend. Pretty funny huh?
So Joy, I would not bet the farm, if I were you :)
Joy Black | April 30, 2012 at 6:59 pm
I rarely thank people for only providing upon request the citations they should have provided as a matter of course.
Also, the smiley faces make you look like a ditzy teenager. I’d advise you to lose them unless you actually enjoy people laughing at you …
w.
The global warming hoax has turned into just another “419″ scam (aka “Nigeria scam” or “West African” scam), so-named after a section in the penal code of Nigeria. Remember when jet-setting eco-whackposts fled freezing temperatures in Europe? They all gathered in sunny Cancun to demonstrate they had bought into the hoax. As faithful True Belivers of Big Brother’s AGW they were determined to agree on how best all must join together. And, who better than schoolteachers to save the world? And, why shouldn’t Leftist politicians offer us sinners — in the free exercise of their new religion — salvation from being burned alive in a CO2 Thermageddon (i.e., sort of like an offer you can’t refuse)?
lolwot | April 30, 2012 at 6:12 pm |
The general position by AGW supporting scientists on sea level rise is not that it would “continue rising”. Instead, there have been unending claims that the rate of sea level rise would accelerate … which it has inconveniently refused to do.
James Hansen—
US EPA—
IPCC—
D. Stanley, Science magazine, 1994—
Acceleration is the prediction they have made for some decades now, not continued rising as you claim but acceleration … which hasn’t happened. Now you want to erase that ugly history of failed predictions and peanut butter over the cracks by claiming their position has always been “continued rise”??? Sorry, that dog won’t hunt.
I’ve written as much as anyone over at WUWT about sea level rise. I expect it to rise about the same as it has in the past, because in general that’s the best way to bet when we have no knowledge of the future.
In short, your claims are not true. People at WUWT by and large expect the sea levels to continue to rise as in the past, whereas for decades AGW supporters have predicted an acceleration in sea level rise that has not materialized.
w.
Oooh … Oooh … citation please, Willis! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Oh wait, never mind, it’s available on-line as Church et al. Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future (2009).
In a nutshell, what Church and his colleagues say is simple:
• Sea-level rise was predicted to accelerate, then
• Sea-level rise was observed to accelerate, now
• Sea-level rise is going to accelerate even more.
So if the predicted sea-level acceleration comes to pass in the coming decade, then it will appear to me (and to many common-sense folks) that James Hansen and his scientific colleagues are laying down their cards from a pat hand. Isn’t that correct, Willis? :oops: :sad: :cry: :shock:
Oh yes … visually speaking, sea-level rise-rates are already plainly accelerating.
My own common-sense view is that if sea-level rates accelerate further in the coming decade or two, say to ~5+ mm/year, this evidence of AGW will be sufficiently strong, as to result in “game over” for most climate-change skepticism.
No need to thank me for the literature citations, Willis … it’s my pleasure.
Sorry but by 2100 it will be only another foot or so higher. The same rate as it has been for the last 130 years
Joy- The only reliable data is since 1998. So is a 5mm per year a problem?
Gentlemen, please let me remind you that the present rise-rate of 3mm per year is far from “business-as-usual”. Because if it were, then the sea would have been 20 feet lower in Roman and Biblical times … and we know for certain that is not so.
And thus, if the rise-rate accelerates even further in coming decades (as Hansen predicts), then that’s a reasonably reliable indication that radical changes to our planet’s climate are underway.
Local sea levels are determined by changes in land height and to a lesser degree sea level changes.
A change of 1 to 2 feet per century is not any great problem. The concern is if the rate of change increases to 3 to 6 feet per century.
If if if
Rob, doesn’t it seem that if the JASON results are averaged over an
entire year, that the barometric distortions would cancel out? Even if not, maybe you would see an ENSO signal … even then, you would know what it was.
I mean, after all, we are interested in the actual sea level rise, not some hypothetical sea level rise after adjustments for glaciers, basin shape changes and the like. If those changes cancel out any steric expansion, then there isn’t a problem. The sea level rise at UC have been overcooked.
Joy, you will have to provide citations that link CO2 emissions to accelerating sea level rise. I would like to see any paper that demonstrates that causal connection.
Thank you ClimateReason!
Yes, we know from the minimal sea-level change with regard to the harbors and wells of Greek, Roman, and Biblical times that the present sea-level rise-rate of 3mm/year is *hugely* above the millenial historical average. Hmmmm … it’s still reasonable to wonder, aren’t the modern satellites telling us much more detailed information about sea-level rise, than ancient wells and harbors ever could?
They sure are! A terrific free-as-in-freedom resource for in-depth information about satellite sea-level measurements is the The ESA/CNES Radar Altimetry Tutorial. For those who love state-of-the art space engineering, the Tutorial is one marvelous document … it’s 307 pages of pure techno-bliss! Climatereason, I hope this resource will be helpful in your own research. :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Obviously, the math, science, and engineering in this document will *NOT* satisfy case-hardened, scientists-are-corrupt, engineers-are-incompetent, ardent climate-change skeptics. On the other hand, it’s getting harder-and-harder to imagine *any* variety of evidence, that *could* convince these folks … everybody nowadays appreciates that. :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Joy at 2.35
Thanks-I am aware of the resource you cited and may use it for article 3. None of which gers away from the aparent oscillation of the sea level by around a metre and that 3mm seems in line with past changes on a century and longer level.
As Simon Holgate noted, the sea level rise in the first half of the 20th century was less than in the second half, although in personal correspondance he was careful to point out to me that there was no meaningful statistical difference between the two halves.
By the way, just for the record I am not a conspiracy theorist nor believe that scientists are stupid or corrupt. Sometimes misguided, but cerainly not dumb. However Chapter 5 of AR4 is as misguided as Dr Manns Hockey stick but seems to have attracted much less attention. Constructing a quasi histric sea level for the 19/20th Century based on such poor proxies is not very scientific.
all the best
tonyb
Joy, it is not at all clear from this chart that sea level rise is “already plainly accelerating.” Sea level over the last 100 years is an elusive concept empirically, because the sea is not level and the earth’s crust is in constant motion.
The supposed recent change in rate in this chart is due primarily to the splicing together of two different studies, which may well use different methods. In fact where the studies overlap, it appears that the C&W study does not show the increase, contradicting the UC study. Might this be a “hide the decline” case ? In any case it is simply wrong to claim the acceleration is plainly known, far from it.
Moreover, this supposed rise no more confirms AGW than warming does. The unanswered question is why is it warming? AGW is just one of multiple hypotheses, so warming per se, or its effects such as sea level rise, are not evidence for AGW. Neither is the conjectured energy imbalance. In fact the fact that the oceans are warming, if they actually are, is probably sufficient to explain the imbalance, if there is one. The question would then be why are the oceans warming? Natural causes must be ruled out before AGW can be confirmed.
But then I am skeptical of all of this conjectural noise, presented as facts, which rises far above what we actually know. AGW is a study in false certainty. Your chart is a perfect example of this fallacy.
David, please see my earlier post for the simple common-sense answer. :smile:
Joy, as usual your response is nonresponsive. The average rate for the last 2000 years tells us nothing. It certainly does not confirm the claim of recent acceleration. Your concept of common sense is mistaken. This is science. Try responding to my specific points, especially the splicing of two studies to get this supposed acceleration.
Joy your 1.13
In my sea level article ‘ Historic variations in Sea levels’ that I cited you a few days ago, I noted both Biblical and Roman sea levels together with real world examples after working out the draught of a Roman ship collecting tin from a local tidal island.
There is also a graphic at the end of the article which appears to show a steady rise and fall and rise again. It appears we are still currently some 20/30 cm lower than in the late Roman period (always accepting the enormous effect of land rise/fall.)
I can’t vouch for the accuracy of the later sea level changes though until I complete parts 2 and 3 which will follow on from part two of my arctic ice article, as logically there should be some sort of correlation.
tonyb
Somehow my reply to ClimateReason and David Wojickgot posted here. Enjoy! :7bnsp; :smile:
Joy, your comment is still nonresponsive, but this time it is also insulting! What you do is called argument by assertion. You never respond to challenges or queries. You just dance away.
Jitter-bug
Hmmm … David, it’s well-documented in history that, in recent decades, special economic interests *do* spread the meme “mathematicians / scientists / engineers are corrupt / incompetent / unreliable” whenever their market interests are threatened.
And historically, no amount of scientific evidence has *ever* sufficed to convince these corporate interests.
Fortunately, large doses of common-sense, administered at frequent intervals, have proved highly effective! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Joy, a lot of the denizens here believe some of the leading AGW scientists are corrupt. Surely you have noticed this, through your happy haze. Are you claiming that they are dishonest, corporate shills who do not belive what they say? (Ironically I am not one who believes this, but no matter.) If so then you are making yet another unsuportable strong claim.
Joy,
You are either repeating fibs sincerely believing them, or you are fibbing.
Joy
A few days ago-perhaps in sanother thread- I cited chapter and verse the problems with Chapter 5 of AR4 and the tide gauges on to which the satellite data was spliced. It directly relates to the Church article you quoted
did you read it?
tonyb
“The general position by AGW supporting scientists on sea level rise is not that it would “continue rising” instead there have been unending claims that the rate of sea level rise would accelerate”
Yes there have, and that doesn’t alter the fact that climate scientists expect sea level to *continue rising*, which puts them apart from many skeptics who don’t expect that. Acceleration would be a more specific expectation, not a contrary one.
Regarding acceleration you quote Hansen making this prediction in 2011:
“Based on our inferred planetary energy imbalance, we conclude that the rate of sea level rise is likely to accelerate during the next several years.”
He’s clearly talking about short-term trend, so this is irrelevant. Plus can we really conclude he was wrong just one year later?
You then quote the US EPA who say:
“Those projections suggest that there is a 65 percent chance that sea level will rise 1 mm/yr more rapidly in the next 30 years than it has been rising in the last century.”
How can they be said to *expect* acceleration when they only think it is 65% likely? Plus that part about “next 30 years” suggests to me that you are yet again assuming they are wrong before the data is in.
And you do it again when you quote the IPCC saying:
“Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100”
How do you know there won’t be an acceleration by 2100? We aren’t anywhere near 2100 yet.
Then finally you quote D. Stanley saying:
“Moreover, predicted global warming may accelerate sea-level rise, which would intensify coastal erosion and loss of agricultural land.”
He doesn’t give a time period, maybe he’s talking about “by 2100” too. In any case he says “may” so clearly he isn’t expecting acceleration.
“In short, your claims are not true. People at WUWT by and large expect the sea levels to continue to rise as in the past”
Really? A number of folk at WUWT, and even here, who call themselves climate skeptics, expect the world to stop warming and even cool in coming decades. And a whole bunch of the rest profess they “don’t know”/”the science is uncertain”/etc. A large number of Wuwtupians have no reason therefore to *expect* sea level to continue rising. In fact recently David Archibald over at WUWT specifically predicted it would start falling.
WUWT also likes to play on any period of short-term sea level stall as an argument. If they expected it to keep rising why would a stall be framed as some kind of damaging blow against “Them”?
“Instead, there have been unending claims that the rate of sea level rise would accelerate … which it has inconveniently refused to do.”
I am not convinced sea level rise hasn’t accelerated over the 20th century. I recall a bit of a ruckus over that one.
In any case if I were a climate skeptic fond of “uncertainties” in the data and I was also somewhat consistent I just don’t know how I would be able to conclude for sure that there had been NO acceleration.
Different skeptics take different positions. It is telling that you still do not grasp this utterly simple fact.
The problem is that often the same skeptic takes different position.
Obviously, the climate porn industry insiders will continue to hype the fearmongering for as long as it takes to unload their stock in ‘green technology,’ and all the while, Leftists hypocrites like Soros will continue buying coal stocks as he funnels millions to fearmongers like James Hansen to help keep the hoax alive.
“Meanwhile, as the warmists continue their doomscrying and seeking further hundreds of billions of dollars to carry on their vast charade, the whole economic structure upon which everything depends is teetering on the brink of disaster with little effort to address or to even recognise the very real and present dangers which confront us.
“All over the developed world, governments have committed to unfunded liabilities and fostered a proliferation of bureaucracy which their increasingly uncompetitive productive sectors cannot sustain. Most are now running on empty with no credit left, no plan B and no apparent recognition that the path they are on leads only to the edge of a cliff.” ~Walter Starck, 2-Jan-2011
Sea Level Rise. I finally found what I believe to be the actual raw data from Jason 2. There is a link there, but it does not seem to work. Can anyone get it to work for them?
Here is the link:
ftp://data.nodc.noaa.gov/pub/data.nodc/jason2
from this web site:
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/jason-2-altimeter-gdr-t
Got it opened.
Check out this handbook. Unfortunately, I don’t have the kind of time it would take to pursue this, but it would be interesting to see the data after only the adjustments necessary to find the height of the sea surface, then the global average. The point being to see a graph of the height, with no inverse barometer or additional corrections.
If anyone knows where the data at that stage of analysis might be, I would appreciate knowing. I will continue to poke around there.
ftp://data.nodc.noaa.gov/pub/data.nodc/jason2/documentation/handbook/Products_Handbook.pdf
Jim2
The link works fine on my iPad. You need to drill down quite a few layers to get to any actual numbers
Tonyb
The moral imperative on this is the same as anything else: Tell the truth.
It will be a revolutionary change for the climatocracy to start telling the truth.
On cue, WUWT just posted an “analysis” of warmists as victims of groupthink. Which I view as smug nonsense and every bit as uninteresting as the article under discussion.
Does anyone besides me view armchair psychoanalysis of warmists and skeptics as a collosally pointless sideshow?
+1
If the number of posts is any indication, then yes, for this weekend at least, Judith has become the ringmaster, and Anthony is responding “on cue”. Heck, even Willis Eschenbach has transferred his attentions to Climate Etc! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
This sea level data that Joy is overjoyed over is Frankendata. It has been remade into something other than sea level rise. Speaking of morals, or maybe better ethics; is it ethical to label these charts, seasonal and non-seasonal data, “sea level?” Wouldn’t a more appropriate title the “This is What We Believe to Be the Global Warming Signal from the Sea?” Where’s the chart that shows only the sea level changes with no additional corrections? I can’t find it.
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
Did someone say collosally pointless sideshow?
http://www.ted.com/talks/paul_zak_trust_morality_and_oxytocin.html
Didn’t expect to consider it about a TED so soon.
Oh yes, the tedious physicalism of neuro- and bio- behavioral science. Like I don’t think there are physical events happening in this computer as I type into notepad. Talk about banal!
That’s because you need a hug, NW.
+100. Let’s talk about the sea level data instead. Or maybe, the effect of rising CO2 levels on water vapor and clouds. Much more interesting and to the meat of the matter.
Longchair psychoanalysis would bring more comfort.
NW,
It is one thing to point out that someone may be wrong, even in forceful terms. It is another to engage in the dehumanization of pretending those with whom one disagrees are sub-human or genetically inferior because they disagree.
Socrates questioned the magical attitude of his time towards philosophers as learned and initiated shamen, glorified without taking into account their intellectual honesty. Socrates intellectualism is also anti authoritarian. Rhetoric may be taught by an expert but real knowledge and wisdom can come to those eager to learn through self criticism. At his trial for heresy, for challenging youth to think for themselves and question orthodoxy, Socrates stated that the unexamined life was not worth living.
Chief @ 29/04 2.28am, your poem, ‘Detritus’, I consider is about taking up this challenge. Compare it with Eliot’s Prufrock, will not: ‘Do I dare! and do I dare? / …I have measured out my life with coffee spoons.’ I really like your metaphor,’ coffee grounds littering the kitchen nook,’ suggesting struggle with the ground down empiric data oh your life, also connotations of grains of sand, ocean detritus, and a robust challenge to Eliot’s ‘time yet for a hundred indecisions,before the taking of tea and toast.’
Say, when are you writing the sequel of yr highly prococious poem written as a student? )
Yes – let’s talk poetry instead.
‘I grow old … I grow old …
I shall wear the bottoms of my trousers rolled.
Shall I part my hair behind? Do I dare to eat a peach?
I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each.’
I have come to love Eliot but in my youth it was the visionaries who moved me – from Rimbaud to Walt Whitman. So nothing measured and sedate – as endearingly wistfull and poignant – as Elliot. Instead great reaches of space and time – demons where you can smell the sulphur and feel the flames. A universe in a grain of sand.
‘Once, if my memory serves me well, my life was a banquet where every heart revealed itself, where every wine flowed.
One evening I took Beauty in my arms – and I thought her bitter – and I insulted her.
I steeled myself against justice.
I fled. O witches, O misery, O hate, my treasure was left in your care!
I have withered within me all human hope. With the silent leap of a sullen beast, I have downed and strangled every joy.
I have called for executioners; I want to perish chewing on their gun butts. I have called for plagues, to suffocate in sand and blood. Unhappiness has been my god. I have lain down in the mud, and dried myself off in the crime-infested air. I have played the fool to the point of madness.
And springtime brought me the frightful laugh of an idiot.
Now recently, when I found myself ready to croak! I thought to seek the key to the banquet of old, where I might find an appetite again.
That key is Charity. – This idea proves I was dreaming!
“You will stay a hyena, etc…,” shouts the demon who once crowned me with such pretty poppies. “Seek death with all your desires, and all selfishness, and all the Seven Deadly Sins.”
Ah! I’ve taken too much of that: – still, dear Satan, don’t look so annoyed, I beg you! And while waiting for a few belated cowardices, since you value in a writer all lack of descriptive or didactic flair, I pass you these few foul pages from the diary of a Damned Soul.’
Remind you of anyone here?
Ohh! Ooh! Ooh! A guessing game!
Is it .. kim?
Is there a prize?
More a test of wit and wisdom – Le Pétomane – which you have failed by responding. Perhaps if I gave it in the original French? Il est préférable de garder le silence et d’être pensée un sot que de prendre la parole et supprimer tout doute. And scuse my French.
How very clever, to so precisely serve as exemplar of issues of the theme of the thread by so ironically flouting the blog rules in the topic of climate change and moral judgment.. or is it me being judgmental, to determine that there appear to be violations of the rules going on?
No matter, it’s kinda your thing.
I find kim’s poesy far more on topic, though.
Is there more morality in Art than in moralizing? I know there is more in Science, by the bulk of the evidence. What do you think?
Beth, we’d all be interested in your opinion of a poem, on Judith’s theme of “Climate Change and Moral Judgment”, that appears in the on-line video Wendell Berry introduced by Bill McKibben, beginning at minute 7:00.
Wendell Berry: “This is a poem without a title. It may need one, but it belongs to a series of poems, that I’ve been writing for a long time, called Sabbaths … the big question of course, for us humans, is ‘How do you get to the Sabbath? How do you reach a point of rest, that’s legitimate and deserved?’ … “
This poem speaks more directly to Judith’s theme of “Climate Change and Moral Judgment”, than any other poem known to me.
And this illuminates a serious flaw in climate-change skepticism: Because skepticism has no poetry, it has no enduring moral foundation.
“And this illuminates a serious flaw in climate-change skepticism: Because skepticism has no poetry, it has no enduring moral foundation.”
That statement sure sounds like a beleif with religious overtones to it, no?
That is unsurprising, John, because Wendell Berry and his wife Tanya are life-long Baptists! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Ok, that explains it for them… how about you? (since I was quoting your words) You appear to be staking out the moral higher ground here.
Like Wendell and Tanya, I come from rural roots, and my dad was a life-long Sunday School teacher. Like Wendell Berry, and for the same reason, I prefer to “sit in the back pew“, because I don’t perceive much percentage in being excessively dogmatic regarding details of religious beliefs. As Ismael says in Moby Dick, my church is:
So it’s a big congregation that I belong to … the biggest, in fact. :smile:
Joy
I listened to all of the poem. Perhaps sceptics are more naturally optimistic than warmists, because they look at the facts rather than the constant mights’ and ‘maybe’s’.
tonyb
ClimateReason, without regard for whether we agree on climate-change science, please let me say that I greatly respect both your attentiveness and your outstandingly polite manners.
Amongst both skeptics and non-skeptics, there are IMHO insufficiently many folks who respect both poetry and equations! :smile:
Joyce
It is a pleasure to see both you and Beth turn up here. Whilst I will agree more with Beth than you, you both seem to believe, like I do, that good manners and humour -and a willingness to listen-should be the norm on all sides. Alas, as can be seen here, many people from both sides shout without listening which substantially reduces the potency of their message.
tonyb
Climatereason, on that we can all splice hands! :smile:
Joyce
Ah Moby Dick. Did you see my response to Beth that I was thinking of incorporating it in its entirety into my next article ‘Historic Variations -in Arctic Ice Part two’- as Big Oil pays me by the word? :)
Second the praise from climate reason re courteous and respectful comments. This world impacting issue needs a wide range of opinions and links. So much interesting data by following what others have found.
Joy Black, If it is as you say: “Because skepticism has no poetry, it has no enduring moral foundation.” Then what would you call upon, as the poetry & enduring moral foundation of the AGW alarmists? There is ample evidence of their lies and half-truths all wraped up in pleasent pictures, enough for the whole world to see. A poem would be nice.
Tom, a happy result is more likely if you search the web *yourself* for any of Wendell Berry’s Sabbath poems, and pick one that *you* like.
You will find that the Sabbath poems appeal to a great variety of people. … so hopefully, among these poems is one that will speak to you.
And if it should happen, that you cannot find even one Sabbath poem to like, then to prepare your mind to try again, please let me commend to you Jane Goodall’s book Reason For Hope.
Best … title … ever! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Well, you have obviously never heard about negative capability.
Poetry is skepticism, born in it.
A High-Toned Old Christian Woman
Poetry is the supreme fiction, madame.
Take the moral law and make a nave of it
And from the nave build haunted heaven. Thus,
The conscience is converted into palms,
Like windy citherns hankering for hymns.
We agree in principle. That’s clear. But take
The opposing law and make a peristyle,
And from the peristyle project a masque
Beyond the planets. Thus, our bawdiness,
Unpurged by epitaph, indulged at last,
Is equally converted into palms,
Squiggling like saxophones. And palm for palm,
Madame, we are where we began. Allow,
Therefore, that in the planetary scene
Your disaffected flagellants, well-stuffed,
Smacking their muzzy bellies in parade,
Proud of such novelties of the sublime,
Such tink and tank and tunk-a-tunk-tunk,
May, merely may, madame, whip from themselves
A jovial hullabaloo among the spheres.
This will make widows wince. But fictive things
Wink as they will. Wink most when widows wince.
Joy won’t get it. the word “Nantucket” is missing
lol
Well, here’s a topical Housman poem on British spring climate:
THE chestnut casts his flambeaux, and the flowers
Stream from the hawthorn on the wind away,
The doors clap to, the pane is blind with showers.
Pass me the can, lad; there’s an end of May.
There’s one spoilt spring to scant our mortal lot,
One season ruined of your little store.
May will be fine next year as like as not:
But ay, but then we shall be twenty-four.
We for a certainty are not the first
Have sat in taverns while the tempest hurled
Their hopeful plans to emptiness, and cursed
Whatever brute and blackguard made the world.
It is in truth iniquity on high
To cheat our sentenced souls of aught they crave,
And mar the merriment as you and I
Fare on our long fool’s-errand to the grave.
Iniquity it is; but pass the can.
My lad, no pair of kings our mothers bore;
Our only portion is the estate of man:
We want the moon, but we shall get no more.
If here to-day the cloud of thunder lours
To-morrow it will hie on far behests;
The flesh will grieve on other bones than ours
Soon, and the soul will mourn in other breasts.
The troubles of our proud and angry dust
Are from eternity, and shall not fail.
Bear them we can, and if we can we must.
Shoulder the sky, my lad, and drink your ale.
The AGW message – then ’twas May, now ’tis April.
From Gevonden in Brendan Behan’s ‘Borstal Boy’
When all the world was young, lad, and all the fields were green,
And every goose a swan, lad, and every lass a queen,
I would get up on my big horse, and gaily ride away,
For youth must have his fling, lad, and every dog his day.
When all the world is old, lad, and all the leaves are brown,
And the big high hopes you cherished, lad, come trembling, tumbling down,
Go, go you, to your corner, lad, the old and maimed, among,
God grant you’ll find one face, lad, that you loved when the world was young.
Nick Stokes
Very nice. Your comment about May becoming April seems a good time to point you to my article. Seems the same happened in the 1730’s and 1930’s and lots of other times.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/01/a-short-anthology-of-changing-climate/
I hereby demand that all the drafts of this poem be scanned and put online.
Unfortunately Housman began writing that poem in the winter of a very cold patch of English history. late 1895-early 1896
Seems that the manuscripts are not in public domain format yet:
http://books.google.ca/books/about/The_Manuscript_Poems_of_A_E_Housman.html?id=Cqgqv2OPt1YC
I had this in mind:
http://v-machine.org/
Edit, ‘Prufrock who will not’..tsk!
Dr. Curry …
If I’m interpreting this correctly, maybe you can get us the sea level data before the excessive corrections are applied?
“There are two kinds of data processing and distribution:
·
Real-time processing and distribution (EUMETSAT and NOAA)
The operational geophysical data record (OGDR) is available with a latency of 3-5 hours. Note
that this is a non-validated product that uses orbits computed by the on-board DORIS Navigator
(DIODE) and that it does not contain all the environmental/geophysical corrections (see Error!
Reference source not found.).
·
Delayed-mode processing (CNES) and distribution (CNES and NOAA)
The interim geophysical data record (IGDR) is available per pass with a latency of 2 days. Note
that this is not a fully validated product, although it uses a preliminary orbit and includes all the
environmental/geophysical corrections (preliminary for some of them).
The geophysical data record (GDR) is a fully validated product that uses a precise orbit and the
best environmental/geophysical corrections. This product is available per repeat cycle with a
latency of 60 days. Validation is performed by two teams at CNES and NASA/JPL to ensure in
depth validation.
Geophysical data records are disseminated to users as they become available, as well as ingested in
two main archives (at CNES and NOAA), where they are made available to the scientific community.”
From ‘OSTM/Jason-2 Products Handbook’
Oh well everybody loves a side show. I’d prefer to start with proper experimental evidence that CO2 (IR absorber and emitter) can actually trap heat energy
The AGW true believers who have ignored, rationalized and engaged in corrupt practices discussing their moral judgement in terms of superiority instead of confessing and repenting and making real changes is entertaining.
A brief history of “The science is settled.”
The most hated phrase in climate, “the science is/is not settled’, originated with IPCC chair Robert Watson in 1997, and led to immediate condemnation by Dr. Henry Lamb, Fred Singer, and the committed signatories of the Leipzig Declaration (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leipzig_Declaration) — at least the 20 or so real ones who actually signed.
http://www.sovereignty.net/p/clim/kyotorpt.htm
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2191-top-climate-scientist-ousted.html
While the evidence has evolved considerably in the fifteen years since 1997, and the record shows clearly now what was claimed with too much confidence at that time — that the world was warming — the positions of many have merely become more entrenched.
Invalid portions of the Leipzig Declaration (Jobs/the poor/somebody will be hurt? Really? What’s the scientific evidence of that claim?), and of the IPCC views of the time (ensembles of model runs equal a prediction of weather?! wth?), still get dredged up over and over again by people who ought have learned better.
The thing with science, it isn’t a moving target. If someone’s still saying the same thing the same way fifteen years later, they may not have been paying sufficient attention, and the world has been passing them by.
“The thing with science” – well, THERE’S your problem. You still think what the IPCC and the Hockey Team do is “science”. It isn’t. Real scientists follow the Scientific Method. Those you call “scientists” REFUSE to do so. They won’t allow independent verification of their work, because they don’t want known that they use cherry-picked data, phoney statistical methods that create Hockey Sticks out of red noise, literally turn data charts upside down, and engage in “pal review” instead of honest peer review. Fraud after fraud after fraud:
The Hockey Stick
Yamal
Hide the Decline
Upside Down Tijlander
Short-centered principal components analysis
Caspar and the Jesus Paper
strip-bark pine tree cores
Climategate
Fakegate
Ben Santer’s re-write of Chapter 8 of AR2
Endangered polar bears
– etc., etc., etc.
What the promoters of Imminent! Global! Catastrophe! (whose only solution is draconian Big Brother policies) can’t – and refuse to do so – is provide actual scientific evidence of the two key claims they make: That the Earth’s climate is “unprecedented” – outside the bounds of natural variability of the current interglacial; and that the Earth’s climate is dynamically unstable – that it responds to temperature perturbations of any kind with positive feedback.
Perhaps, Bart R, you should consider following those who use the principles of the Scientific Method instead of the principles of the IPCC and the ‘Hockey Team’.
Andrew Russell | May 1, 2012 at 1:32 am |
That’s my problem? Well, who’dathunkit? And here all these years, people have been saying I use too many big words, or my head looks funny.
That mind-reading trick of yours — wrong though it is — is mighty impressive in its audacity. I think what, again?
This litany of issues from the past, how do they matter, again? Is the state of what is or isn’t observed now altered by anything in that list of mistakes (some on both sides, it looks like), exaggerations (some on both sides, it looks like), code words, and WUWTisms?
Perhaps, Andrew Russell, you could point to anywhere that I’ve extolled the virtues of rhetoric, imprecision, inaccuracy, false claims, data hoarding, excessive exclamation points, misuse of the word draconian, pal review or even of the current system of publishing research at all, cherry picking, bad methodology, ranting, rambling, incoherence, teamism (like any team would want me?) or any of the other blames you lay at my feet?
Because those things sound pretty much like the opposite of what I’d thought I’d been saying. Just because I find Singer & Lamb’s apparent 1997 dishonesty repugnant doesn’t make me a booster of others’ mistakes. Why does the handful of complaints you’ve been carrying around all these years make you overlook the problems I’ve cited so completely?
So, as you invoke the Scientific Method, let’s clear the tally, and start with a clean slate to look at your questions: “..provide actual scientific evidence of the two key claims they make: That the Earth’s climate is “unprecedented” – outside the bounds of natural variability of the current interglacial; and that the Earth’s climate is dynamically unstable – that it responds to temperature perturbations of any kind with positive feedback.”
So, do you accept ‘their’ definition of unprecedented? I can see arguments either way, depending on the ambiguities of the definition. Perhaps for this claim, you could furnish a falsifiable Null in precise terms, and we’ll see if it’s interesting?
And can you provide a cite for the claim of dynamic unstability? (I’m an avid chaotician, but even I don’t claim all perturbations spiral endlessly out of control every time and on every time scale; I’d be fascinated to see the work of anyone who does.)
furnish a falsifiable Null in precise terms, and we’ll see if it’s interesting?
Ghil 2001
As northern hemisphere temperatures were falling in the 1960s and early 1970s, the aerosol effect was the one that caused the greatest concern. As shown in Sect. 2.2, this concern was bolstered by the possibility of a huge, highly nonlinear temperature drop if the climate system reached the upper-left bifurcation point of Fig. 1.
The global temperature increase through the 1990s is certainly rather unusual in terms of the instrumental record of the last 150 years or so. It does not correspond, however, to a rapidly accelerating increase in greenhouse-gas emissions or a substantial drop in aerosol emissions. How statistically significant is, therefore, this temperature rise, if the null hypothesis is not a random coincidence of small, stochastic excursions
of global temperatures with all, or nearly all, the same sign?
The presence of internally arising regularities in the climate system with periods of years and decades suggests the need for a different null hypothesis. Essentially, one needs to show that the behaviour of the climatic signal is distinct from that generated by natural climate variability in the past, when human effects were negligible, at least on the global
scale. As discussed in Sects. 2.1 and 3.3, this natural variability includes interannual and interdecadal cycles, as well as the broadband component. These cycles are far from being purely periodic. Still, they include much more persistent excursions of one sign, whether positive or negative in global or hemispheric temperatures, say, than does red noise.
dynamic unstability?
Andronov-Pontryagin Theorem was used in Zaliapin and Ghil 2010 (ref 1) with regard to the Roe baker problem (howler)
Eg AP Theorem
A system on a plane is structurally stable if and only if
i) all its equilibrium states are hyperbolic (stable, unstable or saddles)
ii) all periodic orbits have a multiplier different from 1
iii) there are no phase curves which connect saddles
“This litany of issues from the past, how do they matter, again?”
That you don’t think the comprehensive lack of ethics by the “climate scientists” whose anti-science, anti-human drivel you defend here matters, then that says quite a lot about your ethical standards, doesn’t it?
Michael Mann, Phil Jones, Keith Briffa, James Hanson, and all the other corrupt Lysenkoists behind the IPCC and CAGW scandals I’ve listed are still the leading lights of your “climate science”. And that’s all right with you, isn’t it?
As for your demands I provide a citation for “dynamic instability”? You don’t have much understanding of control systems and what the words “positive feedback” means, do you?
Andrew Russell | May 1, 2012 at 8:51 am |
Thanks to maksimovich for providing an interesting Null.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:11/mean:13/from:1960/plot/esrl-co2/normalise
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:41/mean:61/isolate:123/plot/sidc-ssn/mean:11/mean:13/scale:-0.0005/from:1850/to:1960/plot/sidc-ssn/mean:11/mean:13/scale:-0.0005/from:1960
Graphically, refutes “..does not correspond, however, to a rapidly accelerating increase in greenhouse-gas emissions or a substantial drop in aerosol emissions,” while depicting the 8 decade or more correlation of solar cycles with the isolate signal from GMT _ending_ as the perturbation from CO2 takes effect. This is a pretty compelling case for “Essentially, one needs to show that the behaviour of the climatic signal is distinct from that generated by natural climate variability in the past, when human effects were negligible, at least on the global
scale.”
So, while I think no one ought be trusted without verification, and I hope people go to the trouble of checking the math on the above, I see no case for looking into the ‘ethics’ of anyone to determine the proof, as I’m pretty cynical about the degree of difference between what you accuse others of and what ethics those who dispute them have, either. As it’s a wash that way, I have to rely on mathematics and logic, not he-said-she-said ethical smear campaigns.
And really, what does any of this have to do with the theory of acquired transgenic inheritance? Are you suggesting Mann, Jones, Briffa, Hansen, etc. believe climate change induces biological adaptation within a single generation by environmental exposure?
Or are you suggesting no one ever ought consider scientific conclusions when forming opinion or policy, because when despotic tyrants do it in despotically tyrannical ways, they get despotically tyrannical results? Are you comparing Romney and Obama to Stalin?
Perhaps you can expand for us, as an expert on control systems, on the technique I employed in the above graph to correlate the solar and temperature signals, while we’re benefitting from your expertise?
Andrew,
AGW is not about proof or evidence and certainly not about morals. It is a very dysfunctional social movement, and feeds on its echo chamber and the loot that its believers manuver into the cause.
We see here a version of the latest incarnation of James Hansen’s ‘energy imbalance’.
http://s1114.photobucket.com/albums/k538/Chief_Hydrologist/?action=view¤t=vonSchuckmann-OHC.gif
The ocean is warming with an energy imbalance of about 0.77 W/m^2 (of ocean) in the period.
To round it out here is the ‘best’ atmospheric record for land and the RSS global mean – http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/best/from:2003/to:2012
As the atmosphere hasn’t warmed – it is impossible for downwelling radiation to increase and therefore the source of the imbalance is not the atmosphere. The same amount of energy is leaving the ocean but by the 1st law the energy warming the oceans must come from somewhere.
The Sun? – http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/total_solar_irradiance_plots/images/tim_level3_tsi_24hour_640x480.png – Doesn’t look like it.
It comes from clouds – there is no other rational explanation and it is confirmed in CERES.
http://s1114.photobucket.com/albums/k538/Chief_Hydrologist/?action=view¤t=CERES-BAMS-2008-with-trend-lines1.gif
Hansen in his latest non peer reviewed paper conveniently ignores both CERES and the fundamental physics to spin a fairy tale for true believers everywhere. Do you feel deceived and dirty yet?
Chief,
I still strongly disagree with you on this point. The oceans continue gaining heat because the atmosphere continues to be warmer at higher levels than it has been in many centuries. Just because the atmosphere is not currently going to even higher levels still, does not mean that ocean heat content cannot continue to increase. The Earth’s energy imbalance continues and the bulk of that energy imbalance is going into the oceans. The highest temperatures the troposphere as seen in many centuries is maintaining a lower thermal gradient across the ocean skin layer, and thus, more energy is entering the ocean than is leaving and the result is ocean heat content continues to increase. The only way this will change is if somehow tropospheric temperatures decreased to levels we saw in the early 1970’s and be sustained at those levels for several years. Then the thermal gradient across the ocean skin layer would steepen, and we’d see ocean heat content decrease. Maybe a new Maunder or Dalton minimum could bring this on along with a sustained cool phase of the PDO…or maybe not. We will see…
R. gates,
Do you have some citations to support a warmer atmosphere heating the ocean, beyond narratives, that is?
The radiation excess imbalance points in the direction from the atmosphere (solar and back-reflected) towards the earth’s surface. As long as that imbalance exists, the atmosphere, land, and ocean will increase in temperature, with response times in that order.
As Gates succinctly stated, the atmosphere has the shortest time constant and the ocean has the longest, since it forms the largest heat sink. The atmosphere can respond very quickly to natural variations, whereas the ocean just chugs along, continuing to sink the excess heat until it eventually reaches a steady state when the imbalance disappears.
We have the solution of the heat equation given initial and boundary conditions to replace this narrative. We always have equations to support the conventional physics:
scienceofdoom.com/2012/01/30/blah-blah-blah-vs-equations/
There is nothing special about the earth system, it is just on a bigger scale than the heat exchanger of a dwelling or the heat sink inside a computer.
Solve these equations to see if it gives the reverse flow and you will have something to stand on. It will of course be wrong, but will spare us the typical skeptic narrative.
OK, I’m looking inside my computer for clouds. Hmmm … don’t seem to be any there. Am I doing something wrong?
The cloudiness is in your brain.
One of these days a skeptic will actually try to do some interesting math.
Cap’n Dallas comes close and gives it some valiant tries but for some reason never wants to start from the basics. He just dives in to some second order effect disconnected to anything else.
This is what usually happens as the Science of Doom blogger describes:
That fits Jim2 to a tee.
The problem you have, WHT, is that you can only model what you know, what you can imagine, or what you can foresee. The problem is that you aren’t smart enough to tell the future. But apparently hubris is a subtle seductress. You and the others here who believe they are smart enough to model something as complex as the climate or oil production have fallen for hubris hook, line, and sinker. You just aren’t that smart. And no one else is, either. What we skeptics have to do is keep the likes of you out of our lives until you come to your senses and realize your own limitations.
The atmosphere is of course transparent to incoming SW. So the energy flows are from the Sun to the ocean to the atmosphere and back out to space. The oceans and the atmosphere are a coupled system – IR bounces back and forth depending on ocean and atmospheric temperature.
http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/climate/lectures/o_atm.html
The heat equation is in principle a wrong application of the math even if Webby had done it correctly. What is it about coupled system that is so difficult to understand?
“The atmosphere is of course transparent to incoming SW. “
Which could explain how the oceans are warming while the atmosphere is not ?
Which, if true, gets CO2 off the hook ?
Chief thinks that the earth is somehow special in how it avoids increasing entropy. He seriously thinks that because it is coupled and nonlinear that heat doesn’t disperse.
I build on the work of others, and acknowledge that, not necessarilly the sign of hubris. Anti-entropy zealots are just peculiar.
It matters little whether you, Joy, Webby or Hansen disagree. It is simple 1st law of thermodynamics energy accounting.
At the surface of the oceans –
d(S)/dt = SWin + IRup + IRdown + latent + convection – although it is much more sensible to consider the ocean/atmophere as a coupled system and do the analysis at TOA.
d(S)/dt is the change in heat content.
I have given the von Schuckman ocean heat content in the ARGO period to 2008. So the ocean warmed due to an energy imablance which was calculated at 0.77W/m^2.
IR down didn’t notably vary as atmopheric temperature did not increase. And let’s assume that latent and convection didn’t change. They are energy losses that can’t by themselves lead to ocean warming. But we know that oceans warmed so that leaves SWin. It wasn’t the Sun because the TSI declined in the 11 year cycle. It must be reflected SW as seen in the CERES data.
Clouds change with sea surface temperture – sea surface temperature will be cooler in the Pacific especially with increased upwelling in the eastern Pacific in the cool Pacific decadal mode. Expect more cloud and lower temp. as La Nina intensifies over the next decade or three.
Whoops –
d(S)/dt = SWin – IRup + IRdown – latent – convection – this works out in say the Trenberth budget. – http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/trenberth.papers/TFK_bams09.pdf –
Consider unit energy – 1 Watt for 1 second is one Joule – so 10W/m^2 for 1 second is 10 Joules/m^2.
1 Joule/m^2 (energy imbalance) = 161J/m^2 (SWin) – 396J/m^2 (IRout) + 333J/m^2 (IRin) – 80J/m^2 (latent) – 17J/m^2 (convection) – these are approximate numbers of course and rigged to get a unit energy imbalance of 1J/m^2. It is also a static picture. But there is an idea of power fluxes that demonstrates and quantifies broadly the components of the flux and that can be built on.
To warm we need more energy enterering the oceans than leaving in a period – d(S)/dt is positive in a warming ocean – and one or more of these components has to change in the period of interest. It was not IRdown as the the atmosphere did not warm.
The source of the energy imbalance in 2003 to 2008 – the period of ocean warming in the von Schuckmann study – was far and away in less reflected SW as seen in the CERES data.
Hmm…Rimbaud, not too much nourishment for the soul there.
In my first year at University, doing ‘French 1,’ we had to sit through sessions of poetry reading, in French, by a lecturer besotted with Rimbaud. :-(
I remember it as a kind of water torture, probably how Tony b responds to Robbie Burns. )
Hell – I did that without being enrolled or going to classes. All you need is a Gauloises between your lips, a beret, one of those tiny little expressos and a French/English copy of ‘A Season In Hell’. And Villon and Baudelaire. How can you squat in spiritual squalor – and plot poetic revolution – without the French romantic visionaries?
Say, Joy, don’t you think proposinging wagers on long term sea rises or the next Ice Age are an exercise in futility? Who’s going to be around… 100 years… 1000 years… 10,000 into the future either to honour the bet or maybe collect. Now that’s jest gotta be visionary dreaming run riot.
(I comment because I can speak with a little experience here. As a girl I wanted to buy my tract of forest and so In incremental steps i risked my small stake betting at tha races lol.) Of course it’s Pokerguy who can really set you right, Joy.
Beth Cooper | May 1, 2012 at 1:52 am |
The funny thing would be to will the bet to your heirs, on the premise that choosing the wrong ancestors will, on the proposition Joy wins, hedge her descendents’ bleak future and further sink yours (err, guessing you would bet against her) by paying out while, should you win (yay you), merely slightly inconvenience Joy’s heirs in the utopian future while scarcely benefiting your already happy and secure great grandchildren.
(Apologies for the many assumptions made in sketching the premise. It’s meant as an example, not a prediction.)
Joy,
It appears the approach we have been following to reduce emissions hasn’t been working as planned-
http://www.environmentalleader.com/2012/03/20/when-emissions-are-outsourced/
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/03/100308151041.htm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/14/outsourced-emissions
Any thoughts on what to do about this problem?
Yes, even if all agree that AGW is a problem, nothing real and substantial will/can be done. Other pollutants will be increased and no significant CO2 reduction will be achieved. It’s just a bureaucratic verbiage.
That’s the reason a skeptic can be so convinced. It’s a ‘no win’ and a huge waste of resources, time and activity.
Possibly you mean a pessimist?
No, an optimist. We are not doomed.
That would be the definition of optimist that uses the phrases ‘no win’, and ‘huge waste’, ‘bureaucratic verbiage’ and ‘nothing real and substantial will/can be done’ and ‘pollutants will be inceased’ and ‘no significant CO2 reduction will be achieved’, then?
Sounds like about the most negative optimist I’ve ever heard, especially if one who equates ‘warning of risk’ and ‘call to consider consequences’ with doomsaying.
Happy May Day!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_Day
Chief@2.15 am;
The Gauloises will probably do the trick w/out the Rimbaud, but staty clear of Absynthe.
Bart @ 2.37am:
Jest too many assumptions for me to consider it a viable betting proposition .
A shame.
I think it’d be hilarious to have two sets of strangers contacted by some lawyer a hundred years from now, all expressing shock and dismay:
“Our great granny did what now?!” :D
Beth asks:
That’s a good question, Beth! And the answer has everything to do with Judith’s main topic, namely “Climate Change and Moral Judgment.”
The writings of the Greens of course provide good common-sense answers to these questions, and here it is remarkable that writers as diverse as Jared Diamond, Jane Goodall, Ed Wilson, Wendell Berry, and even Thomas Jefferson all provide pretty much the same answers.
Who’s going to be around in 100 years? Your grandchildren. Your farm (ours already is 150 years old). The trees you planted. Your enterprises. Your family history.
Who’s going to be around in 1,000 years? Your nation. Your language. Your culture. Your artworks. Your descendents. Your history.
Who’s going to be around in 10,000 years? Your humanity. Your hope. Your vision. Your religion. Your optimism.
Can any of these things perish? Oh yes. They all are quite fragile … Wendell Berry’s curmudgeonly essays in particular speak eloquently to this! Good for him!
We all know families that have prospered for the last 100 years … and others that have collapsed.
We all know civilizations that have prospered for the last 1,000 years … and others that have collapsed.
We all know ecosystems that have prospered for the last 10,000 years … and others that have collapsed.
Much more thoroughly than any skeptical authors (known to me) — and especially in their recent article Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature (arXiv:1110.1365) — James Hansen and his colleagues have embraced an integrative approach to climate science, that directly and explicitly embraces these moral issues.
In contrast, two great failings of climate-change skepticism are becoming more evident with each passing year: (1) the science of skepticism is weak, and (2) the moral foundations of skepticism are weaker. And that is why, in the skeptical comments here on Climate Etc. — and even more-so, the posts and comments on WUWT — if we disregard the elements of skeptical timidity, greed, inertia, prejudice, and ignorance … we perceive that there’s not much left of climate-change skepticism.
Joy,
after the 100 year horizon, you should rethink your assertions:
Most nations are long gone in 1000 years.
There are no 10,000 year old religions, much less cultures or nations.
And even families, in 100 years, are often completely different.
That said, the assumption you make regarding seal levels is dubious at best. You have in no way offered a credible forecast, convincing data, or examples of why slr- even if you might possibly be correct- is the issue of concern you have decided it is.
“The Music Man” is the general theme of the AGW movement.
+1
Joy Black,
By the way, you are someone whose team is documented to be led by liars, cheats and fraudster. Your claim of the high moral ground raises severe doubts about your morals, but it is funny. Thanks for the laughs,
“(1) the science of skepticism is weak, and (2) the moral foundations of skepticism are weaker”
You’re projecting Joy. The AGW hysteria is driven by timidity, greed, inertia, prejudice and ignorance.
Dirven by timidity? Inertia?
Yes.
Humidity too.
Edim, please let me commend to your attention (and to the attention of all Climate Etc. readers who take an interest in Judith’s subject of “Moral Judgment”) any of Wendell Berry’s Sabbath series of poems:
There are many of these poems, which are called “Sabbath” poems because Wendell writes them on the Sabbath.
Some people look for their lost key by the lampost because the light is better there,
They will find a dark future by the will-o’-the-wisp.
Joy – look in a mirror and ask yourself – “who moved my cheese?” And keep doing this every year until you “get it”.
Supposing that “cheese” is all that we look for in the mirror, then what will the mirror show us? :oops: :sad: :cry: :shock:
That is why, with respect, we should look for more.
Dear Jesus, stop promoting doggerel.
Try something more like this
As Kingfishers Catch Fire
As king fishers catch fire, dragonflies draw flame;
As tumbled over rim in roundy wells
Stones ring; like each tucked string tells, each hung bell’s
Bow swung finds tongue to fling out broad its name;
Each mortal thing does one thing and the same:
Deals out that being indoors each one dwells;
Selves — goes itself; myself it speaks and spells,
Crying What I do is me: for that I came.
I say more: the just man justices;
Keeps grace: that keeps all his goings graces;
Acts in God’s eye what in God’s eye he is —
Christ. For Christ plays in ten thousand places,
Lovely in limbs, and lovely in eyes not his
To the Father through the features of men’s faces.
or better
God’s Grandeur
The world is charged with the grandeur of God.
It will flame out, like shining from shook foil;
It gathers to a greatness, like the ooze of oil
Crushed. Why do men then now not reck his rod?
Generations have trod, have trod, have trod;
And all is seared with trade; bleared, smeared with toil;
And wears man’s smudge |&| shares man’s smell: the soil
Is bare now, nor can foot feel, being shod.
And for all this, nature is never spent;
There lives the dearest freshness deep down things;
And though the last lights off the black West went
Oh, morning, at the brown brink eastward, springs —
Because the Holy Ghost over the bent
World broods with warm breast |&| with ah! bright wings.
Mosh
Very nice. For those who do not know Gerard Manley Hopkins work they do need some explanation to get at his meaning, although they read nicely in themselves of courshttp://www.gerardmanleyhopkins.org/lectures_2004/As_Kingfishers_analysis.htmle
Somewhere around here I have a couple of longish essays on Hopkins and the Tractarians (not so odd when you look at some aspect of their theology ). Maybe someday when I get the time and desire I will submit them. The dreck that Joy is pointing to is just sickening. Nice also to see that some here enjoy Eliot and Prufrock, haha, I got a couple of essays on that, one on rhetorics and the other on tropes and the anxiety of influence
Steven Mosher | May 1, 2012 at 6:22 pm |
I’ve quoted Hopkins before, regarding the climate modelers inane idea that halfway between point A and point B the value of some environmental variable V is likely to be the average of the values at the two points. Actually, nature doesn’t do gradual changes very well. Instead, it specializes in edges, in chunks of one thing and then chunks of another. Or as Hopkins said …
GLORY be to God for dappled things— For skies of couple-colour as a brinded cow; For rose-moles all in stipple upon trout that swim; Fresh-firecoal chestnut-falls; finches’ wings; Landscape plotted and pieced—fold, fallow, and plough; And áll trádes, their gear and tackle and trim. All things counter, original, spare, strange; Whatever is fickle, freckled (who knows how?) With swift, slow; sweet, sour; adazzle, dim; He fathers-forth whose beauty is past change: Praise him.Even for a rank atheist like myself, that’s poetry as well as a good description of why averages don’t work with natural systems …
Having said that, I prefer Robinson Jeffers …
Hurt Hawks BY ROBINSON JEFFERS I The broken pillar of the wing jags from the clotted shoulder, The wing trails like a banner in defeat, No more to use the sky forever but live with famine And pain a few days: cat nor coyote Will shorten the week of waiting for death, there is game without talons. He stands under the oak-bush and waits The lame feet of salvation; at night he remembers freedom And flies in a dream, the dawns ruin it. He is strong and pain is worse to the strong, incapacity is worse. The curs of the day come and torment him At distance, no one but death the redeemer will humble that head, The intrepid readiness, the terrible eyes. The wild God of the world is sometimes merciful to those That ask mercy, not often to the arrogant. You do not know him, you communal people, or you have forgotten him; Intemperate and savage, the hawk remembers him; Beautiful and wild, the hawks, and men that are dying, remember him. II I’d sooner, except the penalties, kill a man than a hawk; but the great redtail Had nothing left but unable misery From the bones too shattered for mending, the wing that trailed under his talons when he moved. We had fed him for six weeks, I gave him freedom, He wandered over the foreland hill and returned in the evening, asking for death, Not like a beggar, still eyed with the old Implacable arrogance. I gave him the lead gift in the twilight. What fell was relaxed, Owl-downy, soft feminine feathers; but what Soared: the fierce rush: the night-herons by the flooded river cried fear at its rising Before it was quite unsheathed from reality.w.
Man, this skinny format sux, and it won’t even open out with the “pre” tag … ah, well.
w.
Well done Steven – admirable poetry and a moral delight.
I think we should fight the climate wars with poetry.
I wandered lonely as a cloud
That feeds back high o’er vales and hills….
My entry for the climate poetry wars, complete with wind and fog …
“WHEN I consider Life and its few years—
A wisp of fog betwixt us and the sun;
A call to battle, and the battle done
Ere the last echo dies within our ears;
A rose choked in the grass; an hour of fears;
The gusts that past a darkening shore do beat;
The burst of music down an unlistening street,—
I wonder at the idleness of tears.
Ye old, old dead, and ye of yesternight,
Chieftains, and bards, and keepers of the sheep,
By every cup of sorrow that you had,
Loose me from tears, and make me see aright
How each hath back what once he stayed to weep:
Homer his sight, David his little lad!”
The Medium is the Message:
–e.g., the “World-Wide” occupy movement credo:
No Work, No School, No Banking… NO ENERGY?
The most significant issue that employers face today is pollution:
The biggest polluters are global warming alarmists’ delusional fear mongers are spewing misinformation, blackening business and capitalism and destroying opportunities. Their misguided and self-defeating ideology is polluting ethics and morals and wrecking havoc upon the economy while China, Brazil and India become more robust.
+1
Just over 3000 comments until we hit 200,000 comments, which should be in a week or so. A historic moment. Anyone want to guess a date and time?
Maybe I can get Joy to bet me on an over/under :-)
I wish we had a tally of how many comments have been deleted. Then we’d actually know when this site has 200,000 comments.
I doubt very many, relatively speaking. Dr. C’s a pretty laid back moderator I do believe. The exception is probably technical threads in which people can’t resist making non-technical comments, something I’ve been guilty of myself on more than one occasion.
I agree. I know I’ve seen dozens of posts deleted, but that is tiny in comparison to the nearly 200,000 comments we have. But it always makes me wonder, what disappears that I never see? I’m especially curious about how much spam gets deleted.
I don’t expect a large number at all. I just find silly things like this interesting.
Or actually it would be before/after.
Using the sort of statistics that global warming alarmists prefer there is a consensus of opinion that it is very likely
Is the use of the Bayesian approach merely climatology’s way of further undermining man’s hope and confidence in the usefulness of the scientific method to help overcome fear, superstition and ignorance through knowledge? It makes no sense that we can increase the precision of current information by augmenting it with prior information in a Bayesian analysis when we know that all of the information, past and present, has been corrupted. A Bayesian analysis cannot make bad data relevant.
Moreover, it is the Likelihood Principle that is embodied in the Bayesian approach that flips the science of global warming on its head to begin with. If “[t]he inconvenient truth remains,” according to Philip Stott, that “climate is the most complex, coupled, nonlinear, chaotic system known,” then like flipping a coin, it will not matter if we devise a mathematical model to combine the data of the last 100 flips with a dataset reflecting the 100 flips before that—even if you want to consider how many tails you got on the previous 1,000 flips—the odds for the next flip still will be 50-50.
Unless we are purposefully trying to deceive the public the Bayesian approach will never be useful in the field of climatology for anything more than providing some insight into the probability of an exceedingly unlikely event. For example, while it may not seem very likely that we at this very moment are on the precipice of the next Ice Age, it nevertheless is very likely that all life on Earth will someday face just such an event—whether or not that fact is appreciated when it happens—and irrespective of the fact that there will be nothing that any living thing can do about it.
curryja | May 1, 2012 at 7:52 am |
Judith, thank you for your response. If you would quote or cite what you feel I have said in error, I could respond to it. As it is, your statement is just a vague and unfalsifiable accusation. As a scientists, you must know that an unfalsifiable statement is useless. An unfalsifiable accusation, however, is worse than useless, it is underhanded, because I cannot respond to it.
As far as I know, what I quoted above were your own words. If I was in error, my apologies, but I believe that you actually said what I quoted above.
As I have said above, yes, at times you have criticized the idea that the problems facing climate science could be “eliminated with better communication” … but at many other times you have made the exact opposite claim, that what was needed was better communication. Let me quote your words again (emphasis mine):
You see the problem? You clearly state (as you say above) that you deplore the compromising of the “core research values” … but rather than deal with that central, crucial issue, your solution is … better communication. Sorry, but better communication won’t solve the destruction of trust resulting from lies and false promises.
Here’s the other quote I gave above:
Rather than saying one single word about the ludicrous irony and the glaring inappropriateness of Michael Mann being the spokesman for your side, rather than deal with the climate establishment’s unwillingness to confront the rot perfectly exemplified by Mann himself, once again you claim that instead of the problem being Michael Mann and his unrepentant coterie of liars, cheats, and thieves, you quote Mann without comment and go on to claim that what we have is a “climate communication problem”.
Which is my point. You keep circling back to the “climate communication problem” meme, as you have done many, many times, including in this very post. Here, you give us the ideas of someone who thinks that the problem is “abstractness and cognitive complexity”, and “the blamelessness of unintentional action”.
I hate to say it, Judith, but that’s airy-fairy ivory tower bullshit. The problem is not “cognitive complexity”. That’s just some jerk’s clever way of claiming he and the folks on his side are smarter than us plebeian dummies, saying that we can’t handle the “cognitive complexity” of his oh-so-intricate ideas … spare me. And you blithely quote it without even noticing the huge implied insult, the claim that he (and by implication you) can understand the cognitively complex issues, and we cannot. But as Bob Dylan remarked, “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows” …
The problem is bozo simple, Judith, and we understand it far better than either you or your quoted author seem to think—the AGW scientists lied and cheated, their predictions have failed badly, and there has been no acknowledgement or apology for any of that by the perpetrators.
To the contrary, you quote Michael Mann as though we should believe something he says. We don’t believe him, Judith. We know that if his lips are moving, he’s lying … and yet you still quote him without criticism or even comment.
Start from there and you’ll see why claiming the problem is “cognitive complexity” is a sick joke.
w.
Willis, your problem is that you don’t quote what i say in its context, this one is a perfect example, where you bold (and apparently pay attention to) only the first dozen words:
Therefore scientists need to do everything possible to make sure that they effectively communicate uncertainty, risk, probability and complexity, and provide a context that includes alternative and competing scientific viewpoints. This is an important responsibility that individual scientists and particularly the institutions need to take very seriously.
I am against propaganda. Communication however is important. The things you seem to object to are propaganda.
Judith
Context is all important in climate science and nowhere more so than in historical climatology whereby, with context, ‘unprecedented’ claims can often be seen to be hubris
tonyb
Ever sixty years
Baby Ice regenerates.
Miracle, it seems.
============
Judith Curry
The Markowitz and Shariff essay, “Climate change and moral judgement” bemoans that only “26% of US citizens rated the issue as a top priority”, essentially conceding that governmental fear mongering campaigns have failed to date to motivate the general public.
The authors list six challenges and then go into a long psycho-babble suggesting how to brainwash a gullible public into supporting a scientifically poorly substantiated political agenda of carbon taxation by using guilt as a motivational tool.
The problem is that the public is not buying into the disastrous climate change story.
I’d agree with you that the six challenges will be very difficult to overcome, and that this will not be achieved by better communication strategies as suggested by the authors.
This is simply because the general public uses common sense and a built-in “BS meter” to detect when it is being bamboozled.
My response to the authors: forget the psychology of mass brainwashing and get the climate science straight first.
Max
Max, of course the public is losing interest.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/why-does-the-stratosphere-cool-when-the-troposphere-warms/
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/03/significant-warming-of-the-antarctic-winter-troposphere/
The fearless leaders explaining the “science”. There are dozens more. I particularly like the second. That probably inspired Steig to “prove” the Antarctic is warming. I would think that “experts” on atmospheric physics would understand why the Antarctic is cooling.
Max,
Once again I think you describe the issue cleanly and concisely.
Don Monfort | May 1, 2012 at 2:11 pm |
If Judith truly is saying “effectively communicate” when she actually means “stop lying”, that is some of the least effective communication I’ve heard in a while.
When someone is lying, only a fool or a college professor would say “you should communicate more effectively”. You say “that’s a lie, stop it”.
IF that is what Judith means, she desperately needs to say so. Because me, I take her words to mean what they say, and “communicate effectively” doesn’t say “stop lying” in any language I know of.
Finally, even assuming she is saying “stop lying”, that won’t solve the problem. That’s the difficulty with her entire meme about “effective communication”.
If someone has been lying to you, Don, and then they stop lying, but they neither acknowledge that they have been lying nor do they apologize for lying nor do they say they won’t lie in the future …
… would you then believe them?
Well, neither would anyone else … which is why even if Judith is trying to communicate “stop lying” by saying “communicate effectively”, that won’t solve the problem.
w.
But Willis, suppose it turns out that the predictions of James Hansen and his NASA colleagues are:
(1) mainly honest, and
(2) mainly correct?
In which case, it would make perfect sense also to:
(3) accept Judith’s statements at face value.
Overall, (1–3) represent an entirely plausible outcome — especially if sea-level rise does accelerate in coming years — and therefore it might be prudent for you to leave room for this “Occam’s Razor” possibility.
It’s just a suggestion. :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Joy,
Please tell us:
1- why we should start believing Hansen, whether he is sincere or not
and
2- just exactly what you claim Judith is saying
TIA,
Hmmm … I appear to have a comment stuck in the spam filter, a frustrating but sadly unavoidable problem in this spam-prone time.
w.
The scientific facts are these:
A. Life is sustained as a natural process in the abundant stream of energy that flows outward from the Sun’s pulsar core:
http://tinyurl.com/7t5ojrn
B. World leaders and leaders of the scientific community, including editors and publishers of news and scientific journals, joined forces to save the world and themselves when nuclear fire consumed Hiroshima on 6 Aug 1945 by:
_a.) Uniting Nations
_b.) Hiding Information on Nuclear Energy
C. Astronomy, astrophysics, climatology, cosmology, nuclear, particle, planetary, solar and space physics were all compromised after 1945.
D. Professors Fred Hoyle and Paul Kazuo Kuroda left behind the story of sudden changes in astronomy and solar physics after Hiroshima was destroyed and the United Nations was formed.
http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/#comment-53
1. Professor Fred Hoyle: Reported one key to the Climategate mystery in his autobiography, “Home Is Where the Wind Blows” [University Science Books, Mill Valley, CA, 1994] 441 pages.
In describing a conversation with Sir Arthur Eddington on a spring day in 1940, he reports:
_a.) “We both believed that the Sun was made mostly of iron, . . .” (page 153)
_b.) “The high-iron solution continued to reign supreme in the interim (at any rate, in the astronomical circles to which I was privy) until after the Second World War, . . .” (page 153)
2. Professor Paul Kazuo Kuroda (A former faculty member at the Imperial University of Tokyo who was sent to Hiroshima to investigate its destruction on 6 Aug 1945): Reported another key to the Climategate mystery in the Introduction to “The Origin of the Chemical Elements and the Oklo Phenomenon” [Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1982] 165 pages.
“One day in August 1945, while standing in the ruins of Hiroshima, I became overwhelmed by the power of nuclear energy.” (page 2)
“The sight before my eyes was just like the end of the world, but I also felt that the beginning of the world may have been just like this.” (page 2)
As noted above, the beginning of the world was very much like the event that marked the end of Hiroshima on 6 Aug 1945 [Apeiron Journal 19, 123-150 (April 2012)] http://tinyurl.com/7t5ojrn
With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel
Former NASA Principal
Investigator for Apollo
Mentored by P.K. Kuroda
J.B. writes “But Willis, suppose it turns out that the predictions of James Hansen and his NASA colleagues are:
(1) mainly honest, and
(2) mainly correct?”
That’s one wild supposition Ms. Black, especially #2. I’m not going to impugn Hansen’s integrity. Nor am I going to bother listing Hansen’s spectacular fails thus far, because I can’t believe you’re not aware of them, and because your faith is essentially religious in nature. Which is to say it’s immune to facts.
Joy Black | May 1, 2012 at 4:38 pm | Reply
Thanks, Joy. First, Hansen is the man who picked the warmest day in the forecast for his Senate testimony in 1988, and then secretly turned off the air conditioners so the Congressmen would be sweating when they were listening to his testimony … and you want me to suppose he is honest? Those are the actions of a sneak and a cheat, not an honest man. He has proven that he will break the rules to advance his own cause, and you want me to “suppose” that he is honorable? As Megan McCardle remarked,
Hansen has convinced me …
Second, Hansen’s unbroken string of failed predictions started at the same time, when he told Congress that 1988 would be the warmest year in the record … ooops …
Given the number of his failed predictions to date, for the total of them to be “mainly correct” would require that he make a bunch more and not one of them be wrong. Very doubtful, given his record to date …
So (1–3) are not even remotely “plausible outcomes”, which renders your entire argument meaningless.
w.
PS—According to Hansen, sea level rise should have started accelerating years and years ago … over twenty years ago he predicted a 10 foot rise in forty years in New York City … perhaps you could tell folks how well that one is going, you could start here …
Willis,
Wouldn’t it be easier to say, Skeptics have a moral imperative to avoid self-defeating conjecture in the Climate Science debate and prefer to redress the Clear and present danger of UN programs like ICLIE that undermine our Rights in the USA?
The climate meme is diverting attention away from more important issues.
Readers of Climate Etc. are invited to verify for themselves that in the following four recent works:
• Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice (arXiv:1204.1286)
• Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change
to Protect Young People and Nature (arXiv:1110.1365)
• Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Implications (arXiv:1105.1140)
• Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change (arXiv:1105.0968)
James Hansen and twenty-one scientific colleagues have scrupulously followed Judith Curry’s advice, which I quote here verbsatim:
In full accord with Judith’s advice, all of the preceding works are scrupulously and comprehensively referenced, and are embraced by multiple authors, and explicitly discuss “uncertainty, risk, probability and complexity.” Moreover, in a radical shift that has been unremarked by skeptics, these most recent works appear in an open, free-as-in-freedom forum (namely, the arXiv server) that explicitly welcomes alternative and competing scientific viewpoints.
As every mathematician and scientist knows, many lively, healthy scientific controversies have played-out on the arXiv server … that’s what it’s for! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
In particular, Willis, there is nothing to obstruct you, or any climate-change sceptic — nothing in the world! — from recruiting a team of colleagues — the more colleagues, the better! — reviewing the literature — the more comprehensive the review, the better! — and publishing your analysis on the arXiv server — free-as-in-freedom, and side-by-side with Hansen’s.
Indeed, it is my opinion that Hansen and his colleagues hope that skeptics will do this, and that they have migrated their work onto the arXiv server precisely in order to openly level the playing-field of scientific debate … for exactly the reasons that Judith Curry has given.
So organize a team and play ball, Willis! The field is open! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Joy Black would have you believe these papers are “[i]n full accord with Judith’s advice,” that they “effectively communicate uncertainty, risk, probability and complexity, and provide a context that includes alternative and competing scientific viewpoints.” I disagree.
However, I won’t argue the point. I’ll simply offer a quote from the abstract of the first paper, and let readers decide what to believe:
Joy,
Hansen is irrelevant as are all other personalities in Science. Either the Science is proven or it is not.
Can you prove the feedbacks exist and the extent of the IPCC claims; the multiplier for future warming?
Otherwise, please stop defending the meme.
There is absolutely no excuse for the UN rush to judgement and lack of proper due-diligence by our own government.
California is about to spent $41 Billion a year for the next 10 years to change global warming by less than 1 thousandth of a degree F. They can’t even measure the change.
This has to STOP!!!
Joy This sort of open access is to be applauded. However as someone who reads thousands of papers every year as research for my various articles many papers are not readily accessible. Many are also poorly written and dull but thats another matter
tonyb
WRT hansens first paper in your list.
1. no archived code as run
2. no archived data as used
Maybe I missed it. I’ll look again. I could be wrong. BUT on the assumption that
I didnt miss it.. I would say this.
This paper is not science. It is an advertisement for science. It cannot be reproduced as published. It’s claims are no more compelling than an advertisement for soap that promises to make me smell nice.
I am under no rational obligation to accept claims where the work is not complete. I am under no rational obligation to “prove” his claims wrong, when he has not shown his work. He writes about work that he claimed to do, but there is no work presented.
I know of two qualified researchers who have tried to duplicate his results without success. For myself, I have found the exact opposite of what hansen claims in the paper using a more comprehensive dataset.
When I read a mans advertisement for science and find upon checking that he has not provided the means to reproduce his work, and when I go to the trouble of redoing his work using a more comprehensive dataset and find his conclusions dubious, do you really think i have a rational obligation to read another word he writes?
Climate Dice are a problem,ie the perception that often the house wins eg
Hansen 2006
SUPER EL NINO IN 2006-2007? We suggest that an El Nino is likely to originate in 2006 and that there is a good chance it will be a “super El Nino”, rivaling the 1983 and 1997-1998 El Ninos, which were successively labeled the “El Nino of the century” as they were of unprecedented strength in the previous 100 years (Fig. 1 of Fedorov and Philander 2000). Further, we argue that global warming causes an increase of such “super El Ninos”. Our rationale is based on interpretation of dominant mechanisms in the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) phenomenon, examination of historical SST data, and observed Pacific Ocean SST anomalies in February 2006.
The result of course was a fizzer.
Climatereason, regarding “dull” there is no cure: the arXiv hosts many dull works.
Contributing to the general dullness is that the moderators of the arXiv server are utterly intolerant of personal criticism; none is allowed for any reason.
Readers of Climate Etc. should be aware too that all arXiv submissions remain on-line forever … revised versions of an article can be submitted, but older versions remain on-line, and these earlier versions cannot be removed. Three of Hansen’s four works already have been revised (presumably to accommodate reviewer criticism), and the earlier versions can be downloaded by anyone.
So think twice before you post your work to the arXiv server … whatever you post, it’s there forever.
Hi Joy,
I am taking a break from my hear and now- someone has to do the weed eating and other chores at our little ranch/farm and I haven’t convinced my wife to do this activity yet. I think our place might even be older they yours (1859). I wanted to thank you for the reference to Bob Dylan way up thread. He is a contemporary of mine, I may have more white hair then his does it’s a genetic thing in my family. My father had silver hair at age 35. He always told us the silver hair was due to his using his brain so much. I must not of gotten that gene as it took my hair a lot longer to change….. oh well that’s how genetics goes. At least a couple of my brothers got the smarts genes.
As this thread is kind of all over the place- as far content goes, culture, science- which I prefer to call the scientific method so I can separate out the different phases of our understanding of things- basic, applied research and then technological development- I thought you might like a reference to a CD (opps I dated myself again) I highly recommend Bruce Springsting’s “Born in the USA”- its very uplifting, for me anyway.
I am having a bit of a problem trying to figure out how to respond to a congressmen of mine on a particular topic/problem. As it appears you are well versed in sociology (I am not, other then the standard undergraduate course work that was required way back when- I found the insights of Eric Hoffer”The True Believers” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_True_Believer to be insightful) and somewhat familiar with psychology (I may have your expertise mixed up- sorry about that this is a very LONG thread). The problem I am having currently is I am not sure how I should address the question/problem of electrical energy usage and what is “essential” energy usage and what is “non-essential” electrical energy usage. This question is kind of important as the structure of our electrical companies rates are based on this question. My head has been spinning on this for about two weeks now. Part of my issues has been to come up with a reasonable frame work to answer this question. Any insights you might have to help me figure out how to look at this would be appreciated.
It’s ok with me, that is I have some hope of understanding your response, if your response includes a reference or two to different economic systems- it’s been a lot of years since I studied this topic, but I keep the book around as I found it very interesting. Mr. Putin would be an ideal person to ask questions of on this topic (advantages and disadvantages of different economic systems) I think.
While we are speaking of cultural things I highly recommend visiting different cultures. The human spirit is amazing. You have likely read “Mans Search for Meaning”. I found reading it beneficial to rounding out my inherently engineering view of things.
Sorry for not keeping up with your comments.
K
Joy,
All we skeptics need to do is exactly what we are doing:
Continue to show that the AGW consensus is wrong.
We do not need to produce a counter theory at all.
Documenting the failure of the failure of the theory you believe is all we need to continue doing.
Your pretense in posing a morally superior in the debacle you bought into and have supported only makes critique sweeter.
Brandon Shollenberger | May 1, 2012 at 2:43 pm |
You truly don’t seem to understand that far too many of the AGW climate scientists are engaged in active disinformation and dishonesty … and they can assuredly do that whether or not they discuss uncertainties. How, you ask?
Well, they’d just lie about the uncertainties …
Both you and Judith keep tossing out ideas that would assuredly work if they were being considered or adopted by honest men … but that’s not the situation that we face. The problem is that too many AGW supporting scientists are dishonest, they are victims of Noble Cause Corruption, and as such they are quite capable of dishonestly discussing uncertainties …
w.
Willis Eschenbach:
You quoted me saying the dishonesty being discussed would be mostly impossible and responded by saying I don’t understand people “are engaged in active disinformation and dishonesty.” I can’t imagine how much contempt you must have for me to think a response based on that belief would make any sense.
It’s simple. If people lie about the uncertainties, what they’re discussing aren’t actually the uncertainties. Calling something by a name doesn’t mean you’re actually discussing the thing you named.
It occurs to me my response above may be non-responsive if one interprets things a particular way. Namely:
Obviously, one can lie about a subject while discussing it. However, it would not be communicating uncertainties if you lied about those uncertainties. So while what I quoted is technically true, it is only true in a way which has no relevance to what was said by Judith Curry and myself.
I don’t think this clarification should matter, but I’m covering all my bases.
Brandon Shollenberger | May 1, 2012 at 5:50 pm
Thanks, Brandon. You say:
So you are saying that if people just became honest, the problem would be solved … have I understood your position?
The problem is, people lied. And as Abraham Lincoln remarked,
Now, I’m a bit less pessimistic than Honest Abe. I think that it can be regained. But to do that, several things have to happen.
1. The people who forfeited the confidence through their lies need to admit to what they’ve done.
2. The people who forfeited the confidence through their lies need to apologize for their actions.
3. The people who forfeited the confidence through their lies need to suffer some kind of consequences for their actions.
To date, none of those have happened. In fact the opposite has happened, the miscreants are still being feted, people are hailing Gleick as a hero, and Judith quotes Michael Mann as if he were an honest man.
At this point, for you and Judith to say that what is necessary is for scientists to be honest in their discussions is unimaginably naive. First, it’s naive because it’s not the situation we’re facing.
And it’s very naive to think that people who have lied and cheated and gotten away with it will change their ways because you and Judith are bleating about honesty.
And in particular, it’s unimaginably naive to think that claiming the real issue is “abstractness and cognitive complexity” as in the head post, without even a single mention of the lies, the loss of trust, and the lack of consequences, will make the perpetrators do anything but snicker.
Here’s the head post author’s diagnosis of the problems:
You keep claiming that you and Judith are pushing honesty … but since there’s not one word about honesty in the head post, perhaps you can see why I don’t believe a word of your claims …
w.
PS—I ask again. The AGW climate scientists got their message across for a couple decades, and almost everyone believed them. Now, their credibility is in tatters. You and Judith and the guy in the head post think this is a communications problem.
How can this be a communications issue? Their communication worked fine before, so what has changed? Why did their methods, which worked so well, stop working?
Answer that, and perhaps you’ll start to see why it’s not a communications issue.
Nice reply, Willis and I agree. People liker Hansen.Schmidt, Mann, Ladbury, et.al took the founding work in atmospheric science and tossed it on its ear without ever offering a refutation to any of the founding ideas which proved that it is water vapor and the earth’s hydpo cycle that control the OLR and greenhouse factor, not CO2.
Climate models were built with entirely different assumptions and now we find the sensitivity factors of temperature and CO2 are dicked up badly enough to proclaim the ideas were wrong about CO2 causing a positive feedback on water vapor.
The dishonesty and corruption came as the promotors of this rot had put their scientific credentials on the line and stirred a lot of emotion with their drivel. There could have been honesty and a saving of face, but the reactions and actions of these clowns was to defend the indefensible at all costs. No question that the desire to defend the 5 billion dolar a year gravy train is at stake along with not wanting to wipe egg off of their faces.
But what I find that is really inexcusable and reprehensible is the willingness of these groups to sit back and allow governments to begin a series of actions in an absurd attempt to reduce atmospheric CO2 that are going to be extremely costly and accomplish absolutely nothing without speaking up. It is sheer, convoluted madness and it is obvious that egos, protecting incompetence and incomes take a precident over doing the right thing. That is unforgivable in my view.
Willis Eschenbach:
Seeing as that is nothing like what I said, no. No you have not. Just like you haven’t understood things when you say:
Judith Curry and I have both explicitly denied this claim. By insisting upon repeating it ad nauseum, you effectively call us liars. Or you show you have absolutely no idea what we are saying.
Either way, there’s no point in me trying to have a discussion with you. If you want to try asking me if you’ve gotten my position right again, I’ll tell you. But I don’t think I’m going to bother pointing out you’re making things up about what people say anymore.
As a final thought, it’s interesting you set these standards, yet you make no effort to correct your own issues. I don’t think you’ve admitted a single mistake on this page.
Brandon Shollenberger | May 1, 2012 at 7:21 pm
Brandon, if I were to call you a liar, you’d know it. I’m known for not mincing words.
The fact that you and I see your words differently doesn’t mean that I have no idea what you are saying. Nor does it mean that you are lying … although I find it interesting that that is your conclusion … why would you conclude that? You nervous or something?
And finally, I look at people’s actions as well as their words. Judith’s actions include post after post after post extolling the claim that it IS a communications problem … so when she denies supporting that position, who am I supposed to believe? Her, or my own eyes?
In any case, your position is hard to discern, which is WHY I ASKED IF I HAD UNDERSTOOD YOU. But instead of simply saying what it is you think the problem is, you’d rather abuse me.
If I ask you again you’ll tell me? Asking once isn’t enough for your highness, you want me to beg you?
OK, Brandon, pretty please with sugar on it, will you reveal your hidden wisdom—what do you think is the problem with climate science? Why do you think that the communications techniques that worked for a couple of decades stopped working?
As far as I know I haven’t made any mistake, but if you think I have, how about quoting what I said that you disagree with. As I said to Judith above, both of you seem to be in to unfalsifiable claims today. I can’t refute your vague handwaving claim that I’ve made mistakes, you have to specify what they were. What error did I make?
I said that while Judith has spoken out against the lies and malfeasance, time and again she has posted things like the this post, which claim the problem is communication and which make absolutely no mention of the lies and malfeasance … is that a mistake on my part? Is there in fact some acknowledgement of the lies and malfeasance in the head post that I missed?
w.
PS—I’ll ask again until you answer … how is it that communication suddenly became a huge issue and problem in the eyes of both you and Judith, when it was so successful five years ago? Why are people now intent on fixing the communication, when it was successful in convincing nearly everyone five years ago? What has changed?
See, if this was the opening of the play and the message wasn’t getting across, I’d suspect communications problem.
But since the communications worked, and worked, and were immensely successful for a couple decades, and almost everyone was convinced by that same communication that now isn’t working … well, people saying it’s a communication problem have a huge hill to climb. People saying it’s because of “guilty bias” and because “uncertainty breeds wishful thinking” have to explain why those things were NOT an issue for two decades, and now suddenly they are. Did we all suddenly develop a guilty bias, whatever that might be? We need you to give us the explanation of how that happened …
And that, my friend, neither you nor Judith have done …
Willis, maybe the problem isn’t mainly with Judith, or Brandon, or even with mainstream climate science. Maybe the main problem is … somewhere else. :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Willis Eschenbach
One answer => http://bit.ly/HnYPQf
Willis Eschenbach:
No. The fact you have no idea what I’m saying means you have no idea what I’m saying. As an example:
You said this in response to me saying:
Nowhere in my comment did I offer to say what “the problem” is. I said you could try to guess what my position was, and I’d tell you if you got it right. That’s offering to give a simple “yes” or “no” answer, nothing more.
Because I did that already. And you ignored me. Multiple times. I don’t see repeating the process as being worthwhile.
So instead, I’m just enjoying watching you fail, over and over, to comprehend simple sentences. It’s probably wrong, and maybe it makes me a troll, but it’s too good to pass up. I mean, no matter how simple people make things for you, you keep getting them wrong.
I think the issue typified by the work cited is that non-climate scientists have discovered that there is great mileage and money to be had in their own field by work referencing climate change as its focal point. Most of those who do so accept CAGW as gospel, though I suspect that few if any have sufficient scientific understanding to test it for themselves.
Willis, it’s not complicated. Just take Judith’s advice at face value:
Now imagine a world in which:
(1) Hansen & colleagues have got the science mainly right, and
(2) that science is being communicated effectively and completely,
(3) over channels of communication that are transparently open to all.
Based on the evidence, it seems (to me) that we are very plausibly living in the world of (1–3) already. In particular, the objective of Hansen’s new arXiv outreach is plainly to cover Judith’s points (2) and (3).
So either Hansen has been appreciating Judith Curry’s essays, or else he has figured out the same plain truths on his own. Either way, that’s good! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Willis, is it really so hard for you to conceive that (1–3) might simply be true? Is that’s what’s blocking you from appreciating Judith’s plain assertions at their plain face value?
Joy,
How many times will it take your repeating the silly idea that Hansen is correct, while you studiously ignore the evidence he is wrong?
Is there a magic point where your wishing something were so will make it so?
What evidence he’s wrong? you don’t present any.
YOU are wrong.
lolwot | May 2, 2012 at 6:54 pm
YOU are not following the thread. I gave a couple of examples where Hansen was wrong upstream a ways … if you don’t like those, google is your friend.
Look, lolwot, defend AGW theory all you want, but defending Hansen just makes people point and laugh. There’s occasionally some good science being done on the AGW side, but little of it is being done by James “Death Trains” Hansen, he’s far too busy getting arrested and giving press conferences to bother with doing what he’s paid to do …
w.
Certainly no one really believes that a hope for improved communication lies behind a desire to rebrand ‘global warming’ to ‘climate change’ to ‘disastrous global climate disruption.’ We’re actually seeing a desire on the part of climatologists to gin-up hysterics over short-term weather-related events to take advantage of superstition and ignorance, right?
Right, they now refer to it as Global Weirding. we think something is happening but its weird so be very afraid.
Its gone from the ridiculous to the absurd. I thought science was supposed to improve over time — maybe its just certain wines.
“Because skepticism has no poetry, it has no enduring moral foundation.”
Poetry by its nature knows no factual truth, and it wholly disinterested in same. Certainty is utterly antithetical to poetic sensibilities. It is also not interested in “morality.” You’re really slinging it now, JOy.
Hi Joy, youv’e asked me to comment on Wendell Berry’s poem , which I listened to, and his lecture at Gorge Washington University. Steve M and Pokerguy have already made comments I agree with but I’ll add to them.
First some context to the poem. Wendell was introduced to his audience by Bill McKibbon , one of the earliests voices on global warming 20 years, who is now maintaining that we’ve waited too long and the globe is melting, drying, acidifying, flooding and burning in ways no human has never seen. Now that has been robustly disputed on this very post, Joy, and evidence presented of earlier climate catastrophes, eg drying of Sahel, 5000 yrs ago, flood records and ancient sea shore discoveries, Medieval Warming,etc so BM’s apocalyptic assertion is no established truth.
Wendell Berry with a nice irony, in his opening address on global warming opening notes the paradox of his own feelingsof guilt, travelling for years all over the country telling other people to stay at home… WB’s untitled poem is one of his’Sabbath’ day poems where he raises the question, how do we get to a place that’s legitimate and deserved…. Hey, stop it right there… who defines ‘legitimate, who decides ‘deserved? Socrates would smile, Plato would tell you its the job of shamen priests (like himself.) But its not the job of poetry.
About the ‘untitled poem.’ Well, poetry is not didactic, ‘thou shalt, or’ thou shalt not.’ WB does his metre in appropriate slow measured beat and tone suited to his message, but poetry it isnt, it’s exhortation, a sermon on ‘care for the world, stop the destruction of forests, stop polluting the streams etc
What can you say about poetry? Well, poetry is language with a high degree of organisation, metre, sound patterns, metaphor and other figurative language that all contribute to its total meaning with great compression. Its ‘meaning,’ some aspect of human experience in the flux of existence, (not a motherhood statement,) communicated through particular imagery or vivid situation.
Joy, now this is a poem. )
Nothing would sleep in that cellar, dank as a ditch,,
Bulbs broke out of boxes hunting for chinks in the dark,
Shoots dangled and drooped,
Lolling obscenely from mildewed crates,
Hung down long yellow evil necks like tropical snakes.
And what a congress of stinks!
Roots, ripe as old bait,
Pulpy stems, rank, silo-rich,
Leaf mould, manure, lime, piled against slippery planks.
Nothing would give up life:
Even the dirt kept breathing a small breath.
‘Root Cellar’ Theodore Roethke.
Magnificent choice, Beth.
The shift from La Nina dominant to El Nino dominant 5,000 years ago?
http://s1114.photobucket.com/albums/k538/Chief_Hydrologist/?action=view¤t=ENSO11000.gif
We had Joy’s 1, 2, 3 knockout punch – No 1 was James Hansen getting it right. How funny is that? 8) :-x :-P :- ;-) :lol:
Do you know Jamie King-Holden? She published a very lovely little book of poems last year called Chemistry.
Nostalgia
There is a place, far from the television’s warped smile
And my Mother’s cook top toiling,
Where golf balls are swallowed
by the Murray’s thick amnesia.
There is a place, unseen from the pot-smoked man-shed,
And my Father’s calamity of tools,
Where willows huddle and whisper like children
At the floating calf, facedown.
There is a place, invisible, to the tar-scarred suburbs
And cars’ headlight violence,
Where the bank is pillow-soft and transforms nightly,
When the moon turns its back on the water.
There was a place, below a lonely, hunched gum,
Skin, sun-aged bark, and flaking,
Where we dipped our feet in the quick-cool stream;
Where you and I built sandcastles.
Nostalgia
There is a place, far from the television’s warped smile
And my Mother’s cook top toiling,
Where golf balls are swallowed
by the Murray’s thick amnesia.
There is a place, unseen from the pot-smoked man-shed,
And my Father’s calamity of tools,
Where willows huddle and whisper like children
At the floating calf, facedown.
There is a place, invisible, to the tar-scarred suburbs
And cars’ headlight violence,
Where the bank is pillow-soft and transforms nightly,
When the moon turns its back on the water.
There was a place, below a lonely, hunched gum,
Skin, sun-aged bark, and flaking,
Where we dipped our feet in the quick-cool stream;
Where you and I built sandcastles.
Had an invitation to the launch of ‘The Wind-up Birdman of Moorabool Street’ that sounds like fun.
Friday, 11th May 2012
Bella Union Bar
Level 1, Victorian Trades Hall, Corner Victoria and Lygon Streets, Carlton, Vic.
Time: 6 for 6.30pm
No‐one, in the long history of the Australian ‘bird poem’, has written about birds like this. Johnson’s poetry is metaphorically rich, sharp as a pin, funny, and emotionally devastating. It demands attention.
—David McCooey
I can’t make it as I am flying into Rocky from Weipa that day – but I may just fly to Melbourne some weekend that isn’t in winter.
Whoops – double pasted. Nevermind. I got a signed limited edition of Chemistry last year – No 42 after several months of sales. It is so crass to judge poetry by sales. Might as well buy Hallmark cards.
Poetry by consensus? That’s pretty weird.
The carbon tax in Australia has become toxic. The previous premier of the largest state of Australia from the same party has suggested to the Prime Minister of Australia she should withdraw the carbon tax. Things have really shifted. It is not long before skeptics open the champaign.
Joy’s apparent insistence on poetic certainty put me in mind of Poe
Take this kiss upon the brow!
And, in parting from you now,
Thus much let me avow-
You are not wrong, who deem
That my days have been a dream;
Yet if hope has flown away
In a night, or in a day,
In a vision, or in none,
Is it therefore the less gone?
All that we see or seem
Is but a dream within a dream.
I stand amid the roar
Of a surf-tormented shore,
And I hold within my hand
Grains of the golden sand-
How few! yet how they creep
Through my fingers to the deep,
While I weep- while I weep!
O God! can I not grasp
Them with a tighter clasp?
O God! can I not save
One from the pitiless wave?
Is all that we see or seem
But a dream within a dream?
Spiritual and physical life is existential to each individual and yet all part of one dream.
Yr a deep guy, Pokerguy and yer know the odds :-)
LOL … Beth and Pokerguy and WIllis and Mosher and all poetry-posters … we’re going to let the market settle this … (checks Amazon Kindle sales) … as I suspected … Jeffers and Hopkins and Poe and Roethke all are decidedly inferior poets to the North American sales champion … Wendell Berry!
`Cuz however much popular opinion counts in climate-change debates, it’s gotta count ten-fold in poetry! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
I suddenly feel kinda bad for you, Joy.
I don’t know where to begin with the problems with this idea. Except that it is not a competition. It is deeply subjective and depends somewhat on how educated your ear is – but at the end it is you and some words at the limits of communication. I am no purist – Bob Dylan is a fine poet.
‘Then take me disappearin’ through the smoke rings of my mind
Down the foggy ruins of time, far past the frozen leaves
The haunted, frightened trees, out to the windy beach
Far from the twisted reach of crazy sorrow
Yes, to dance beneath the diamond sky with one hand waving free
Silhouetted by the sea, circled by the circus sands
With all memory and fate driven deep beneath the waves
Let me forget about today until tomorrow’
It is nuanced and has layers of meaning that unfold in the emotions and the mind. But please it is not a competition.
How about G M Hopkins’ “Pied Beauty”?
Glory be to God for dappled things—
For skies of couple-colour as a brinded cow;
For rose-moles all in stipple upon trout that swim;
Fresh-firecoal chestnut-falls; finches’ wings;
Landscape plotted and pieced—fold, fallow, and plough; 5
And áll trádes, their gear and tackle and trim.
All things counter, original, spare, strange;
Whatever is fickle, freckled (who knows how?)
With swift, slow; sweet, sour; adazzle, dim;
He fathers-forth whose beauty is past change: 10
Praise him.
————————————————————————-
I am not a believer in any deity, but Hopkins seems to have grasped the way things are perceived and how they relate to orthodoxies better than most. And, as a lover of the natural world, how could I or anyone anyone resist the opening line.
Chief, the last poem I wrote was on the political demise of Joh-Bjelke Petersen. I can’t remember it all, but it began:
“In Queensland, all well-made roads lead to Kingaroy,
But no-one travels them now.”
Unless we are purposefully trying to deceive the public the Bayesian approach will never be useful in the field of climatology. It will never provide us anything more than perhaps some insight into the probability that an exceedingly unlikely event may happen. But, how much help is that? For example, while it may not seem very likely that we at this very moment are on the precipice of the next Ice Age, it nevertheless is very likely that all life on Earth will someday face just such an event. However, whether or not Bayesian statistics may help us appreciate that fact when it actually does happen, we still will be left with this conundrum: when it happens there will be nothing any living thing on Earth can likely do about it.
Brandon Shollenberger | May 1, 2012 at 10:09 pm | Reply
That’s gorgeous, Brandon, absolutely lovely. You won’t explain your position, yet you want to abuse me for not understanding it, and play word games because I didn’t say “mother may I” …
I suppose this is what you are recommending when you say:
So, how about stopping the runaround and “effectively communicating” like you recommend everyone should do?
In fact, it does make you a troll, Brandon, and you are right, I didn’t comprehend that your “simple sentences” were actually just trolling … my bad, I got fooled again. You asked me above to acknowledge my mistakes … not recognizing that you were trolling was definitely my mistake.
Where to from here? Decent, honorable people have nothing to do with jerks who are just trolling. I wish you’d let us know sooner, rather than playing your asinine word games, but I guess that’s what trolls do. Folks, from this point out anyone answering Brandon is, by Brandon’s own definition, feeding the troll … DFTT is my advice, but heck, anyone who wants to identify with a troll is welcome to jump in and defend Brandon. It will make the others easier to identify. Me, I’m done with you, I’d rather talk with Joy. Because although the unending string of smileys is definitely irritating and makes her/him look like a teenager who is about to say OMG or LOL, at least Joy seems to be honest about the beliefs s/he holds …
w.
Willis Eschenbach, you really ought to stop making things up in such a flagrant and obvious manner:
I haven’t given any sort of definition, so it would be impossible to do anything by my “own definition.” I don’t get why you’d make up things in such an idiotic fashion, and I kind of wish you’d stop.
Then again, it is funny watching you fail so miserably…
DFTT …
w.
Paraphrased:
You identified yourself as a troll, Brandon.
Yes, you are 100% correct in your self-assessment, it does make you a troll.
DFTT …
Willis Eschenbach:
I would love to hear how saying “Maybe it makes me a X” amounts to identifying oneself as X. I would also love to hear how saying that amounts to offering a definition of X. I know any explanations wouldn’t make sense, but as I’ve said, I do enjoy watching you fail, over and over, to comprehend simple sentences.
Of course, you could argue describing my behavior counts as identifying myself as a troll, but that’s just stupid. I don’t imagine that would prevent you from arguing it though.
So in addition to flagrantly making things up and misrepresenting comments in order to give strawman arguments, we have you being a hypocrite in this comment. It’s amazing how much you can get wrong with so few words.
I can’t help but laugh at the humor of posts so devoid of intellectual honesty coming from a person who demands honesty from scientists. Sometimes I wonder what the debate would be like if more “skeptics” practiced what they preach.
Brandon Shollenberger | May 2, 2012 at 4:31 pm |
That’s easy … when you’re right, you’re right, and you were right in your speculation.
DFTT …
Willis Eschenbach:
As I expected, your explanation makes no sense. It doesn’t even address the issue. In fact, it has no bearing on what was being discussed.
You’ve labeled me a troll, yet you keep responding to me. By your own standards:
I suppose we’re to take this as meaning you’re not a decent, honorable person. Just like we should take it you lied when you said:
If you’re a liar who is neither decent nor honorable, why should anyone listen to you? You’re apparently as bad as the people you complain about.
As Willis notes, no mention is made in the paper of the widespread, unrepentant and unpunished dishonesty at the core of government-funded climate science, and the failure much of the government-funded science community to criticise it.
Could it be the authors of this paper are also government-funded?
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/336/6080/493.abstract?sid=776861f4-35e5-4941-a66f-8c5239c7afa8
You are a child of the universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here.
Desiderata
And, for the sake of balance, awful as it is:
http://www.joke-archives.com/poetry/deteriorata.html
Deteriorata
(You are a fluke of the universe.
You have no right to be here.
Deteriorata, Deteriorata)
Go placidly amidst the noise and waste, and remember what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof. Avoid quiet and passive persons, unless you are in need of sleep. Rotate your tires. Speak glowingly of those greater than yourself; and heed well their advice, even though they be turkeys. Know what to kiss – and when. Consider that two wrongs never make a right, but that three do. Wherever possible, put people on hold. Be comforted, that in the face of all irridity and disillusionment, and despite the changing fortunes of time, there is always a big future in computer maintenance.
(You are a fluke of the universe.
You have no right to be here.
Whether you can hear it or not,
The universe is laughing behind your back.)
Remember the Pueblo. Strive at all times to bend, fold, spindle, and mutilate. Know yourself. If you need help, call the FBI. Exercise caution in your daily affairs, especially with those persons closest to you… That lemon on your left, for instance. Be assured that a walk through the seas of most souls would scarcely get your feet wet. Fall not in love, therefore, it will stick to your face. Gracefully surrender the things of youth: the birds, clean air, tuna, Taiwan – and let not the sands of time get in your lunch. Hire people with hooks. For a good time, call 606-4311, ask for Ken. Take heart in the deepening gloom that your dog is finally getting enough cheese. And reflect that whatever misfortune may be your lot, it could only be worse in Milwaukee.
(You are a fluke of the universe.
You have no right to be here.
Whether you can hear it or not,
The universe is laughing behind your back.)
Therefore, make peace with your god, whatever you perceive him to be: hairy thunderer or cosmic muffin. With all its hopes, dreams, promises, and urban renewal, the world continues to deteriorate. GIVE UP!
(You are a fluke of the universe.
You have no right to be here.
Whether you can hear it or not,
The universe is laughing behind your back.)
-Tony Hendra, for National Lampoon, 1972
If I were sincerely convinced of CAGW (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Weirding, now?), on the top of my list of how to communicate to and convince others of this, would be a clean-up of climate science.
Like making sure that out-and-out science crooks like Mann or Jones, and those responsible for eg the Climategate coverups, were sacked.
And a drastic strengthening of FOI legislation, removing all/most exemptions, violations bringing mandatory prison sentences and heavy fines on the university involved.
This is precisely what would win over a skeptical public, and precisely what the establishment will not do. Suggesting they know all too well it’s largely BS.
Apologies about posting Hopkins’ poem after it had already been posted way upthread – it happens when there are 967 comments. That said, it is always worth re-reading, plus many readers will not scroll through hundreds of comments.
For poetry lovers, Bishop Hill had a thread on global warming poetry recently here:
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2012/3/29/hulmes-new-climate-course.html
Lots of laffs, plus a few serious attempts at poetry.
It is good to know that people still care about poetry. It is even better to discover that many poetry lovers are apparently a subset of knuckle-dragging, redneck, big-oil shilling, planet-destroying ‘deniers’.
Or maybe it’s just a reprise of “the Devil has the best tunes”.
No communication problem there.
I forgot to add, if you love poetry and have not already heard of him, Australia’s Les Murray should be on your list. The son of timber-cutters with a deep love of the bush, Les is no-one’s shill.
http://www.poemhunter.com/les-murray/
Murray is an extraordinary poet who deserves the Nobel Prize for literature much more than the long forgotten favourites of fashion who have mostly won it.
Hmmm – climate poetry
Song of a Climate Zombie
Am I some poor merchant of doubt selling shopworn and
threadbare wares on the ebays of the ideas marketplace?
Let me take stock then in a dismal reiteration of my poor
argument that is my faint hope to delude and dismay you.
Unless we can count on some mad and unprovable theory,
then the unholy carbon ghost must grasp the photon closely
in warming arms for a period of no less than 80 years or so.
Or until judgement day – whichever comes before the cart.
My stock in trade must be: the power of the ENSO twins,
the abruptly shifting PDO, the fickleness of the PNA, the
slow pendulum of the AMO and the SAM with its storms
freewheeling off the Southern Ocean to smash on the shore.
These standard bearers of doubt engage in a global dance.
Occasionally, they pirouette towards a grand crescendo and,
then fly wildly to the ends of Earth in a new choreography,
Tremendous energies cascading though powerful systems.
Unless I miss my mark then this is the mark of chaos and
a danger in its own right as climate system components
jostle unpredictably and things settle into whatever pattern
emerges – mayhaps a cold, cold, cold day on planet Earth.
So you’re sure we caused warming over the last 50 years?
But global warming is only seen between 1977 and 1998.
By more than chance, it was the last period when the boy
child, El Niño, reigned over climate in the Pacific Ocean.
His influence can be seen in the gleam of Earth’s radiance.
A slow decline in reflected shortwave as cloud dissipated
over the warm ocean letting in more of the Sun’s warmth.
Ten times more powerful an effect than that of IR trapping.
Before that time and since his sister, the girl child La Niña,
ruled waves with winds and cold, cold water rising in the
eastern Pacific – with cool cloud spreading over cold seas –
she rules for some decades yet before ceding power again.
Sorry Joy, but you don’t quite git it…poetry isn’t consensus politics, it’s unfolding meaning in the mind/ear of the reader, Lorca’s duende, (triad of deep connection between artist/ listener/ viewer with the poem,painting or song.) It’s Keat’s negative capability,( unsympathetc term for a sympathetic, imaginative capacity. )
‘I stand amid the roar/Of a surf tormented shore/ And I hold within my hand,
grains of the golden sand./How few! yet they creep/ Through my fingers to the deep,/While I weep. While I weep.
God, that’s enough!
Talking of Keats, Why haven’t you made your poetic contribution, Tony b ? You know he visited yer home town )
Beth
I quoted some of Keats in my article-he described this piece that he wrote in 1818 in my home town as doggerel, but its possibly the first reference to Devonshire Cream teas-where of course you spread your cream on the scone first followed by Jam; not like those very strange people over the border in Cornwall who, would you believe, spread their jam first. Tsk Tsk;
For there’s Bishop’s teign
And King’s teign
And Coomb at the clear Teign head –
Where close by the stream
You may have your cream
All spread upon barley bread.
There’s arch Brook
And there’s larch Brook
Both turning many a mill;
And cooling the drouth
Of the salmon’s mouth,
And fattening his silver gill
http://www.devonheritage.org/Places/Teignmouth/JoohnKeatscomestoTeignmouth1818.htm
That it was very wet in 1818 when he visited can be seen here in his letter to a friend;
‘I have used it [his wet jacket] these three last days to keep out the abominable Devonshire Weather–by the by you may say what you will of Devonshire: the truth is, it is a splashy, rainy, misty, snowy, foggy, haily, floody, muddy, slipshod county. The hills are very beautiful, when you get a sight of ‘em; the primroses are out,–but then you are in; the cliffs are of a fine deep colour,but then the clouds are continually vieing with them (Forman 1984: 241).’
Keats is most famous for his epic poem Endymion that he finished in the town, probably because he had nothing better to do in the rain (the Amusement arcade was closed)
The poem starts
“A thing of beauty is a joy forever “
http://www.bartleby.com/126/32.html
There is much in poetry and stories and art that reflect the climate of the time. Shakespeare often made accurate references and Breughel painted impressive pictures of the LIA
tonyb
What I am trying to show is a direct connection of velocity to pressure/weight/gravity.
Solids ,gases and liquids are all effected differently due to the different densities.
From the center of our core to our outer atmosphere, All has a different velocity due to size in rotation. These can be measured.
Why I question the way we measure atmospheric pressure is that there is a direct relationship with velocity. A liquid like water is heavier the deeper you go which can be measured to the same with velocity differences. Our atmosphere must be the same.
Water vapour defies gravity due to being squeezed our of a different pressure and then needs mass to compensate and generate weight to come back to the planet surface.
This also explains the shape if tornadoes and hurricanes/cyclones that are squeezed by the different pressure as they touch down on the planet surface.
Dang it Joe. you ain’t been followin da laws an otta be shot for insabordination.
IGNORANCE IS NO EXCUSE!!!
Chief, that’s good, ‘unholy carbon ghost,’ lol, post it on Bishop Hill.
Ferment flourishes
Beclouding the struggling mists.
Ring around posie.
===========
High Haiku!
Joint manipulation of the public by united efforts of USA/China?
http://news.yahoo.com/cheng-guangcheng-seeking-medical-treatment-hospital-reunited-family-095742520–abc-news-topstories.html
I just remembered something i posted at WUWT last year, can’t call it poetry but it has aspirations to climate doggerel.
‘We’re clever specializers iin the art of climatology,
We’re very heav’ly specialized in modelling futurology,
We’re really rather good at, yes we’re good at hind-castology
And upside down ‘Tiljender,’ such a tricky methodology.
Now you skeptics think our measurements perverse and up -side downery
And some among you skeptics say we’re clueless and we’re clownery,
But we’re very, very good at, yes we’re very, very good at,
Oh we’re really very good at…getting money from the guvernment.’
( You know who they are.)
So.. the people who are best at getting money from ‘the guvernment’ would be perverse climatologists?
Well, following the money is simple enough. Who really gets the most? And none of that Jo Nova fantasyland accounting. Hard numbers. Actual identities and line items sorted by amount high to low. No leaving out ‘exceptions’ like tax expenditures.
Who really is very good at getting that money?
Not sure who’s the “best”, but government-funded climate scientists certainly get a huge whack. If you add all the money going to universities and suchlike, it is surely vastly more than all non-government climate scientists put together.
Punksta | May 2, 2012 at 9:47 am |
See the condition, “none of that Jo Nova fantasyland accounting.”
All money to all universities and suchlike?
Line item audit, because we know people have been fibbing with the summary information in the past, so can’t trust anything less.
Because so far as Lamar Alexander’s CBO reports show when you do dig into the details, the non-government fossil fuel and biocarbon scientists get pretty much 95% of research spending on non-nuclear energy, and that’s only gotten worse since 2007.
Stop (yet again) trying to duck the issue Bart, which is that almost all climate science is politically funded (which is very why it reliably produces answers favorable to political expansionism).
Punksta | May 2, 2012 at 10:39 am |
Wasn’t ducking, was giving you the benefit of the doubt that you weren’t begging the question. Now that you’ve made clear that the only thing holding your logic together is a fallacy that assumes the conclusion to prove the conclusion, and no other, I can stop.
If there was a massive conspiracy to twist all public funding to produce skewed and tampered results, there would be such a maelstrom of objection from anyone capable of doing the math — which it is readily apparent you aren’t — that it would be caught and uncovered in no time at all. Instead, some 97% or more of scientists do not dispute global warming.
So, again, you’re making stuff up. Poorly.
Oh, Lord. Bart, Joshua, whoever you are – we were having some good discussions while you were sleeping – since your day job seems to include long and frequent posts that anyone with a real job couldn’t possibly sustain – unless it was their real job – please go away.
I stopped responding to Josh/Bart’s red herrings a long time ago, and recommend this course of action to others.
93%…
Dentistry very obviously does not offer the justification for a massive lurch towards a more totalitarian society that CAGW does.
And, again, Bart, you duck the question, adding this time the tired old ‘conspiracy’ strawman so beloved of your fellow CAGW truebelievers.
The simple facts you regularly work so hard at ducking are:
– almost all climate science is state-funded, and by and large peddles CAGW alarmism (97% of the state’s scientist lackies do this, you say)
– CAGW alarmism greatly benefits the state, since it provides an apparently watertight excuse to raise taxes and generally sabotage freedom by extending political controls over society. A totalitarian’s wet dream.
So what we have here, is an organisation (the state) using its massive size and monopoly powers, to fund a line of thinking that provides itself (the state) with a justification to enrich and empower itself even further. Goodness me, what a coincidence eh?
So no, no conspiracy needed – for what could be more natural than an organisation working to advance itself? Rather, it would be very surprising indeed if it did anything else – now that would require a conspiracy – some secret pact of honesty and integrity amongst the scientists elected by the state to further its interests, to instead search for the truth, wherever that leads them, rather than making science the servant of politics. You know, like we all wish science actually was – not riddled with activism and unrepentant deception al la the the state-funded Climate-gaters.
Punksta | May 3, 2012 at 1:29 am |
Wow. And Johanna (do you think that’s a Joe’s World sockpuppet id?) accuses _me_ of red herrings.
1. Conspiracy say what, Mr. Gibson? If you assert “..almost all climate science is politically funded (which is very why it reliably produces answers favorable to political expansionism),” then you are obliged to thread the needle between conspiracy theory and the foregone conclusion that everyone who does science is naturally divided into two camps: those who don’t work for funds from the government, and are therefore ‘unbiased’, and those who do get funds from the government, and so are safe for you to presume are likely biased. Your proof they’re so biased? They all apparently agree with each other’s (biased) views! This is begging the question, a fallacy. So, either you’re a conspiracy theorist, or relying on a logical fallacy, or both.
2. “almost all climate science is state-funded, and by and large peddles CAGW alarmism (97% of the state’s scientist lackies do this, you say)” This claim is so rabidly defamatory and grossly insulting to people who work in any science capacity that takes state funds as to be obscene. By extension, what you say applies to the Surgeon General, the CDC, the people who put chlorine into your drinking water, and the grade school science teacher up the street; if true of climate there is nothing in your premise to prevent it being generally true. A large number of scientists working on problems in climate have by convergence arrived at similar conclusions in a related field. This happens in astronomy, biology, chemistry, physics, biology and medicine time and again. It’s far more credible that it’s happened in climatology than to claim that all and only climatologists are corrupted by their association with the government; further, while 97% in some survey (more in another, less in yet another) agree with the conclusions of AGW, the number who actually advocate publicly in any way is relatively small, making your CAGW alarmism assertion just patent nonsense.
3. Alarmism greatly benefits the state? Well, Sarah Palin did apply for federal grants for Alaska to compensate it for harm from climate change; so that’s at least one alarmist in at least one state. But then, it would be wrong to call Sarah Palin a CAGW alarmist; after all, she’s alarmist about everything from the Russians to next door neighbors as it suits her.
Otherwise, your brilliant watertight tax raising scheme appears to have failed pretty miserably most places — making it not watertight — and to have sunk many political careers along the way — making it no totalitarian’s dream of any sort. In Canada, the actively climate-change denying government is all kinds of popular, federally. In British Columbia (within Canada, if you aren’t familiar with a map), the actively climate-change believing government is all kinds of unpopular, except it’s most popular policy is the revenue neutral carbon tax.. which lowers taxes.
So you’re backwards on this point, too.
So, if the state is doing what you claim, it’s a moron. And while I’m the first to opine that many state leaders are morons, I’m more likely to admit when all of the evidence is against a political theory involving words like watertight and wet-dream, that I’m having a conversation with someone who is not firmly in contact with reality.
Bart
If you assert “..almost all climate science is politically funded (which is very why it reliably produces answers favorable to political expansionism),” then you are obliged to thread the needle between conspiracy theory
Obviously not, the “conspiracy” notion being but your fevered strawman. The state simply allocates funds to projects and people it believes will best further its cause. And, as you keep ignoring, it would require a conspiracy for this to not</b< happen. And since you seems to believe exactly that, it turns out the only conspiracy theorist here is you.
“almost all climate science is state-funded, and by and large peddles CAGW alarmism (97% of the state’s scientist lackies do this, you say)” This claim is so rabidly defamatory and grossly insulting to people who work in any science capacity that takes state funds as to be obscene.
Oh spare us the drama. Simply consider the deafening silence of the climate science rank-and-file in the light of widespread malpractice by the IPCC cadre revealed in Climategate.
No, what is obscene is the pretense that politically-funded science in a politically sensitive field (like climate science, unlike math) isn’t biased towards politicized ‘solutions’.
Alarmism greatly benefits the state?
Yes, it obviously justifies all or some of more taxes, bureaucracies, bureaucrats, regulations, more state control overall. Your comments about Sara Palin are mere puff. Ditto British Columbia’s carbon tax being revenue-neutral – it still must entail more government, ie all/some of overall tax increase, regulations, subsidies. Or did they scrap a load of other taxes and regulations to compensate?
Punksta | May 3, 2012 at 4:21 am |
Q: “almost all climate science is politically funded (which is very why it reliably produces answers favorable to political expansionism).”
(That’s more like a speech, though, than a question, isn’t it? You seem to have made up your mind.)
A: Before your ‘question’ can be answered (other than by you finding a question mark and a way to phrase it as a question, of course), you’d want to find some evidence to hang your hat on.
I’ve addressed the “almost all peddle alarmism” by pointing out that simply very few government funded scientists of any stripe are activists. If activism were the way to get funds, and scientists motivated so by funds, if your premise were true, then the vast majority surely would be activists of the most egregious sort. They’d call themselves ‘Lords’ and claim to sit in the House of Lords, or hold meetings in the House of Representatives in rented rooms, or sidle up close to rocket men and get published in editorials.. Now, while to you that may sound like alarmists, it also describes Moncton, Lindzen, and a select cadre normally associated more with accusing others of alarmism.
So, Asked and Answered. Move on. Your point has been crushed.
Bart:
Re: politically-funded climate science unsurprisingly producing answers favorable to political expansionism
I’ve addressed the “almost all peddle alarmism” by pointing out that simply very few government funded scientists of any stripe are activists.
“Pointed out”, eh? Yet the obvious fact is they do peddle alarmism. 97% of them, you yourself say elsewhere. That their activism doesn’t extend to affairs beyond their work, changes nothing – you don’t need to carry placards and shout loudly to be an activist-scientist, you can content yourself with merely hiding data, hiding the decline, circumventing peer-review, etc. Or effectively collaborate with other activist-scientists engaged in such professional misconduct, by producing a pristine and deafening silence.
And you steer clear of the larger point that the state funding committees will naturally in the first place prefer and select people and projects they feel will most benefit the state . So what you end up have is a confluence of vested interests, ie minimal objectivity.
And again, you duck the answer. http://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/personal-incredulity
You assert bias. You prove bias by showing that the biased agree with each other’s biased outcomes. That’s begging the question.
You assert bias by calling the outcome alarmism. Why is it alarmism? Because the people you say are alarmist use the outcome to support their claims. That’s begging the question.
The people who do not act like alarmists (ie, activists seeking a political outcome based on raising an alarm) have in no ways distinguishable the same outcomes as the people who do behave like alarmists. This, again, scorches your fallacious argument.
In multiple jurisdictions, we see funding withdrawn from climatology where political masters, offended by findings opposite their ideologies, cut off researchers. In Canada, there’s a scientific gag law requiring scientists to pass all their public statements through political operatives of the ruling party. In the USA, we’ve seen attempts to gag Hansen, and persecute Mann. The controversy and hardship incurred by holding to their activism has patently been costly to their careers and pockets. Your argument holds no water.
You seem to not be able to grasp that the answer to your question invalidates your premise.
Bart says:
“In Canada, there’s a scientific gag law requiring scientists to pass all their public statements through political operatives of the ruling party. ”
Bart, can you provide the evidence which supports your claim, please ?
Specifically:
a) scientific gag law
and
b) it requires scientists to pass all their public statements through the political operatives of the ruling party.
Thank you.
http://www.canada.com/life/pets/Critics+instructions+Environment+Canada+scientists+Montreal+conference/6500175/story.html
It’s very simple Bart. Even government lacky scientists (are you one?) can understand it.
1. Almost all climate science is funded by government. Government choses the people and projects that get climate money.
2. Climate alarmism provides government with an excuse to extend its reach over society.
IOW, government has a vested interest in the outcome of a science it is the virtually the monopoly funder of. Further, its leading lights have been caught hiding data and generally sabotaging the science process, the science authorities have run fake enquiries to cover this up, and the rank and file climate establishment have by and large let the crimes against science by Jones et al pass without comment. (All of this this the Left cheer of course, since anything that gets taxes and government up and freedom down is good, no matter how dishonest).
This is the general scenario, even if eg Mann is under pressure to reveal what he has been doing with the tax dollars he received, and a few scientists like out hostess tread a more independent path. You’d truly need rocks in your head to think all the above is unrelated to the overwhelming alarmist drumbeat we are forced to subsidise. So if you really think that despite the interlocking vested interests of the state and its lacky scientists, real science is being done, you need to come up with some evidence of this implicit ‘conspiracy of honesty theory’ of yours.
Punksta | May 4, 2012 at 5:07 pm |
Let’s try replacing the word “climate” with the word “dental” in your claims.
Almost all dental science is government funded. Well, that’s true enough.
Does that make all dentistry a wretched hive of scum and villainy?
Does dental alarmism provide government with an excuse to extend its reach over society. Is this some fluoridation thing with you? How Dr.Strangeloveque. Strangelovian? Whatever.
The rank and file dental establishment have let the crimes go by.. Well, (A), the dental establishment, whether their science is government funded or privately-funded, answers to a much larger world than the government, and the interests of the government do not intersect those of other parties in dentistry; and yet, dentistry pretty much still comes to the same conclusion regardless of those multiple stakeholders, and (B), were Dentistgate to come about, one expects no less shock and disappointment by dentists worldwide, whose leading lights loudly and quickly would say, “That is not in the spirit of dentistry!”, and “Every shred of their work must be subject to reappraisal”, and “We must examine the case from data completely independent from these tooth-tamperers, perhaps like a ‘Princeton Independent Statistical Science Extensive Dentistry’ project”.
For your claims to be true, where you are claiming fake inquiries in no less than three countries are involved,requires an international effort. It’s too much to believe all such governments are so inclined to such measures simultaneously. You argue you aren’t claiming an international conspiracy, that this is all due to self-serving biases. Further, we’ve seen political parties whose election hinges on showing the government to be wrong, and with substantial control over funding, and yet they haven’t recruited anything like an equal number of advocates to their cause.
Your evidence is that the conclusions of the science are wrong, therefore the scientists are biased, and that the biased scientists whose conclusions are wrong are agreeing with each other, therefore their conclusions are wrong and they’re biased.
Your argument is toothless.
Bart, thank you, but I cannot find support there for your claims.
I see no mention of any “scientific gag law” which gags Canadian scientists.
If climate worsens, every town will need it’s amusement arcade. Reliable energy sources, not ‘on again, off again’ wind technology, will be a MUST.
As soon as AR4 came out, the temperature went in the wrong direction. Before AR4 came out, the models had been precise => http://bit.ly/HnYPQf
selti1 | May 2, 2012 at 8:35 am |
And yet.. for all your claims of ‘wrong direction’, your proposed model performs worse on the monthly GMT than the really ridiculous 0.2C/decade line.
If we’re judging by ability to forecast — which is silly — we’d have a hard time accepting your version on the most obsolete of the datasets using suspect and contrived manipulations, and see it has no semblence of reality on better data.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1990/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1990/to:2000/trend/detrend:0.095/offset:0.045/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2000/trend/offset:-0.095/detrend:0.031/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2000/trend/offset:0.105/detrend:0.031/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2000/trend/offset:-0.295/detrend:0.031/plot/gistemp-dts/from:1990/trend/detrend:0.01/offset:-0.15/plot/gistemp-dts/from:1990/trend/detrend:0.01/offset:-0.35/plot/gistemp-dts/from:1990/trend/detrend:0.01/offset:0.05/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1990/to:2000/trend/detrend:0.095/offset:0.245/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1990/to:2000/trend/detrend:0.095/offset:-0.155/plot/gistemp-dts/from:1990
Now read this and weep
http://www.childrenoftheearth.org/Kid%27s%20Entries/global_warming_Dore_class.htm
How was THAT for indoctrination?
The arguments about the moral dimension of the mismatch of human responses to the issue of climate change is not a new one. The most comprehensive examination is Stephen Gardners “Climate Change: A Perfect Moral Storm” which you can find at Amazon (of course). For those wishing a taste, the book grew from an essay of the same name which is available on the net.
Eli wrote about this book on Rabett Run (the motivated may google), but allow the Rabett to quote an summary by a graduate student in philosophy at Penn State, Joshua Kurdys
=======================
In conclusion, moral corruption constitutes a significant threat because it permits self-deception by selectively applying our attention to components of climate change that ease our moral burden. Practically, moral corruption emerges in beliefs that excuse inaction with claims of scientific uncertainty and exorbitant economic or political costs while ignoring signs that encourage action such as scientific consensus and the mounting inter-generational costs of inaction to be borne by future generations.
Theoretically, moral corruption appears in the self-interested choice of strategies we select in responding to climate change by emphasizing the self-interested obligations for collective action suggested by the global effects of climate change without evaluating these strategies according to inter-generational standards requiring ethical commitments that go beyond contemporary preferences. In contrast to the practical effects of moral corruption, which play on the division between interests for self and other, the theoretical implication of moral corruption suggests that the way we constitute the distinction between individual and collective interests may render a theoretically adequate balance between personal and political obligations, while effectively abandoning questions of responsibility to innocent generations to come.
========================
The Rabett should realize that the moral cost model is not unique or original, and that when one looks at the actions of those claiming the moral high ground in this- the AGW true believers- and notes the actions of those claiming the high ground, old terms, like “hypocrites” and “self-righteous” and “self-serving” and “extremist” comes to mind.
Hear, is a flash from the past…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metanoia_(theology)
& i’ll meet you half way.
nice word, metanoia. I am going to study that one more before I comment on it. Thank you for introducing it.
Eli
So essentially, moral corruption on the public’s part, means :
failing to flatly ignore the rampant moral corruption on the part of the climate science elite (hiding data, ‘fixing’ peer review etc).
Punksta | May 2, 2012 at 8:58 am |
It would seem Joshua Kurdys isn’t saying the whole public is morally corrupt. Why do you?
Eh?? Why do you think I think the public is morally corrupt? I was obviously commenting on the message Eli presented…
“moral corruption on the public’s part”
Again, as I said, the message *Eli* tried to present was :
moral corruption on the public’s part, means failing to flatly ignore the rampant moral corruption on the part of the climate science elite (hiding data, ‘fixing’ peer review etc).
So how on earth did you read into that report of what *Eli* said, that *I* think the public is morally corrupt ??
Punksta | May 3, 2012 at 12:48 am |
I’m really not motivated enough to google “perfect moral rabbit”, so if Eli actually used the phrase “on the public’s part”, I would’ve missed it. There were no quotation marks around it, so I have to treat it as a paraphrase you authored, and the paraphrase in so little extent resembled Eli’s comment as to lead me to conclude it was all Punksta, 100%.
Plus, it was more amusing that way, and as many of the claims you make are dubious, contentious, have been openly explored in public inquiries and found wanting many times, one must conclude if you think the practices rampant moral corruption, you think the public inquiries endorse rampant moral corruption, which by association makes the judges and sponsors of the inquiries (including the UK’s House of Lords, and the US House of Representatives) rampantly morally corrupt. Not that I’m disagreeing on that particular point.
However, if you _meant_ to say, “to the public, ‘moral corruption’ means…”
Then you’re in the clear.
Is that what you mean to say?
Oh dear, yet more non-responsive drivel (with a dollop of the usual baseless sideswipes …)
Once again</i. then, how did you manage to read into *Eli’s* contribution, something you want to believe *I* said?
Punksta | May 3, 2012 at 2:18 am |
http://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/ambiguity or http://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/strawman — it’s hard to tell which. Are you by your paraphrase of Eli trying to say something so messed up no one can follow its meaning, or just trying to put words in his mouth?
And , again, more evasive waffle – you trying to read into Eli’s thoughts, ideas you want to attribute to me. Bizarre.
If you dis/agree with Eli, address your comments, just address them to him directly…
Punksta loses
Indeed it seems the whole motivation for this putative attempt to portray CAGW as a moral issue – people ludicrously just not caring about their descendents’ futures – is precisely to divert attention away from the dishonesty, uncertainty and general shakiness surrounding the CAGW ‘science’.
Eli, Did Joshua, get a passing grade on this paper too?
Bye Bye
Lectured on morals
By morally repugnants.
Where have flowers gone?
=================
Eli, this one misses out on the fact that believing something or not is not a moral issue. Morals are about right and wrong,
What the authors are missing structurally ( they acknowledge that “interests” are in play) , is that “values” are what they are really questioning, not morals.
.
To repeat: In conclusion, moral corruption constitutes a significant threat because it permits self-deception by selectively applying our attention to components of climate change that ease our moral burden.
See Eli, just like Job said?:o)
You see how it goes, Eli ?
I value a roof over my head, heating, public secular education, and food delivered to the store on time at a price I can pay
I value these much more highly than the output presented to us by sneaky psychological manipulation attempts, guilt tripping, secrecy, false rhetorical suggestions, and so on.
Whether I choose wisely or not, it is not a moral issue, because I want what is good for myself and others and do not wish harm. It’s about my values and interests.
Get it ?
If you still don’t get it, Eli, here is an example we might work on:
I’m working on the assumption that both you and I are, essentially, usually trying to follow The Golden Rule in one or other of it’s forms.
Perhaps it’s “Do not do unto others that which you do not wish to be done to you”
So is it OK to take that as a “given” ?
The thing about doing the least harm to others is that we don’t always have all the necessary info, a clear perception, conception, judgment, etc. in order to make the best decisions which would offer the least harm.
So my example is wrt city planning. I think bicycle routes are great in several ways, but if they are not being used enough, it’s maybe a loss as cars have fewer traffic lanes.
So when we argue over the value of one particular bike lane or many of them, since both of us want to encourage bike lanes if they are working, sometimes they aren’t. Neither one of is then to be called morally corrupted or a scoundrel for taking positions on the matter..
Get it yet ?
Eli,
Of possible interest for a post on your blog. A gent named Gustavo da Fonseca (Google: World Stage Why Rio Will Succeed), advises:
“According to unofficial estimates conferences on biodiversity, climate change and desertification consume more than 240 days a year. Taking other conventions into account there are fewer days in the year than there are meetings to attend.”
I mean, Eli, considering that their mono-maniac obsession is carbon reduction, I am sure our minds all collectively recoil at the hypocrisy of the enviro, do-gooder legions–to include making-themselves-useful, toe-the-party-line-centric, probationary-greenshirt grad-students in philosophy– as we imagine all that CO2 spewing from the planes, trains, autos, and ships (for the most committed to carbon reduction, make that private jets, private railroad cars, armored limo convoys, and yachts) of our “moral” paragons as they descend on this, that, or another conference site.
And then, of course, there are the billowing, choking clouds of CO2 (and stink-bomb methane–we’re talking a bunch of vegans, you know) given off by our wannabe, low-carbon philosopher-kings and queens as they hold their high-carbon court in their luxurious, privileged, first-world accommodations which stand in grotesque, unsettling contrast, at the typical, fun-in-the-sun conference locales, favored by the Great Watermelon’s illuminati, with the desperate, local poverty.
Finally, there are also all those CO2 blow-out, party-animal, what-happens-at-eco-confabs-stays-at-eco-confabs good-times that are such an essential feature of conferences attended by those obsessed with carbon reduction.
A little much, don’t you think, Eli?
And now we have the prospect of some 50,000 point-source emitters of CO2 rolling into Rio in the near future for a Gaia-bacchanal of the first magnitude that has not the slightest prospect of accomplishing anything worthwhile (the only worthwhile aspect of the whole obscene get-together).
And all these enviro-conferences could avoid all those CO2 emissions if they were, instead, video-conferenced (also with a vast savings of taxpayer dollars). But not much chance of video-conferences happening, right Eli? And for reasons only a Penn State grad student in philosophy could fathom but not dare discuss.
So, c’mon, Eli, let’s stop with the “moral” high-horsies B. S. I mean, you and “The Team” have your little gig going and you guys have been working it all eager-beaver like and it’s been good to you and all. And a little cynical “moral” posturing, under the circumstances, is understandable. Indeed, part of any good, shear-the-sheep schtick. But, with all that considered, I’ve gotta say that I’m beginning to think, Eli, that you’re maybe, like, you know, taking what should be a healthy, flim-flam, pretend self-righteousness and, instead, you’ve lately begun actually taking it all seriously and everything–and that, let me be frank, Eli, makes me a little worried for you, guy.
kudos to mike for that fine piece of waffle.
mike,
Well stated. Like corrupt televangelists, the AGW climatocracy is really really good at selling the gospel and demanding things of their flocks, and fleecing the flock rather well.
Yes. I find the people who actually PRACTICE inaction are more corrupt that the people who preach inaction.
1. Those who practice inaction by fighting nuclear ( going on decades now)
2. those who practice inaction by fighting for global agreements that
are unworkable and unenforcable.
These evil doers are far worse than the people who just preach inaction.
And people who promote hasty futile action ( like building wind farms in the ocean or bio fuels) are the most evil since they waste resources now, that we will need later to combat the problem.
nuclear is a fine option…..as long as you ignore the economics of it.
If you understand the true economics of it, and address the unnecessary administrative costs, it is cost effective
You mean things like regulation and the reality of govt-backed indeminity for the industry??
Like Mt. Boo-boo, in Nevada? How much will that cost you?
Eli Rabett: Climate models are crap, they have failed to produce any convincing evidence that warmers have the correct and claimed relationships. If anyone is corrupt it is the continued rantings of absurdity that come from people like you who have sunk into some sort of a corrupted religion that has now discarded science in favor of supporting egocentric and self serving views that are deperately trying to escape reality to save a wadd of egg that is waiting to cover your face.
Thank you Mr. Meteorologist for your random INTERNET rant.
Eli Rabett: There is nothing random about it. It is the truth. It is reality and it is what it is because of your rantings about “deniers” and all of the other absurd, non scientific, non supportable and stupid things you say on your blog.
It’s still a rant and yes, word salad
Word salad from the sky dragons is right.
When I look at the edifice the AGW movement has built- its hubris that the state of the science is complete, that the science is settled, that actions like Hansen’s, Gleick’s, Zwick’s, calls for xenocide, drumbeats of apocalypse, hide the decline, the cherry picking, the phony bets exemplified by Joy Black, the poem that comes to mind is Shelley’s “Ozymandias”:
I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: “Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown
And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
`My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!’
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away”.
The AGW mania has no less hubris or contrived artifice, and certainly has no lack of sycophants to offer praise and glory of its greatness.
As far as peak oil goes, people who are actually in the oil business and therefore have superior knowledge, are predicting the price of oil will go down within a year or so due to shale oil. I believe them rather than someone with toy DE models developed by one with inferior knowledge.
@Joy Black – You obviously did not read my question properly or chose not to. Either way I repeat – “Joy, you will have to provide citations that link CO2 emissions to accelerating sea level rise. I would like to see any paper that demonstrates that causal connection.” No skeptic doubts that sea level rises and drops according to natural causes. But, warmists claim that sea level is rising, and will accelerate it’s rise, due to human produced CO2 emissions. That claim is specious and wholly unproven. My question was that you provide papers that demonstrate the connection, that is “cause and effect”. Please cite a paper, please I beg of you.
PatrioticDuo, it’s a pleasure to respond to such a polite and well-phrased question.
First we need to reflect that “proofs” belong to the domain of mathematics, not of science (as we will see below). What we are seeking, therefore, is not “proof” but rather “validation and verification:”
• Validation that accepted physical theories do predict rising sea-levels.
• Verification by observation and experiment that the predictions are correct.
Now it is straightforward to answer your question:
• Validation: The American Institute of Physics (AIP) web site “Ice Sheets and Rising Seas” provides a good entré into a vast literature.
• Verification: A recent summary is “Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise” (Nature 2012, a Google search will find it).
The process of scientific verification never ends (of course), and whenever verification fails we are forced to question whether our scientific theories are valid (of course). Obviously, this questioning-without-end makes science a very different process from mathematics! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
For sea-level rise, the next key verification test is simply this: Will sea-level rise accelerate in the coming decade or two? … as James Hansen and many other climatologists have predicted?
If this prediction is verified, then the prevalence of rational climate-change skepticism will diminish sharply — regardless of whether individual scientists are saints or sinners — because our present understanding of climate-change has already survived some very tough verification and validation processes.
As for irrational skepticism … wellllll … that kind of skepticism never disappears entirely … but frequent large doses of common sense generally have a good effect.
PatrioticDuo, I hope this helps you, and other Climate Etc. skeptics! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Joy says:
“First we need to reflect that “proofs” belong to the domain of mathematics, not of science”
The dictionary says:
“proof (prf)
n.
1. The evidence or argument that compels the mind to accept an assertion as true.
2.
a. The validation of a proposition by application of specified rules, as of induction or deduction, to assumptions, axioms, and sequentially derived conclusions.
b. A statement or argument used in such a validation.
3.
a. Convincing or persuasive demonstration: was asked for proof of his identity; an employment history that was proof of her dependability.
b. The state of being convinced or persuaded by consideration of evidence.
4. Determination of the quality of something by testing; trial: put one’s beliefs to the proof.
5. Law The result or effect of evidence; the establishment or denial of a fact by evidence.
,,,”
Joy
That was a genuinely interesting link, thank you. However it merely tells us what we already know and that I wrote about in my article ‘The long slow thaw’.
http://judithcurry.com/2011/12/01/the-long-slow-thaw/
Essentially the world has been warming in fits and starts for some 350 years and glaciers have been retreating since around 1750 following a cold period (the LIA) that itself followed a period warmer than today (the MWP) that our friend Dr Mann wrote about
Of course we must bear in mind that modelling ice melt is still a primitive black art –the article actually uses the word primitive and surely we are still at that stage? In my archives I have an advert from the Met office (local to me) from several years ago confirming that they still didn’t know much about the effects of ice melt and seeking a modeller. To believe we know to any degree of accuracy the effects of ice melt and of sea water rise is hubris.
Incidentally, as I mentioned, Hansen cuts no ice with me (pun intended) due to his quite unscientific remarks about rises as much as 15m by 2100. Seems that this sort of mentality is the norm in warmist circles-or was it just plain inaccuracy on the part of the author of your link- who states;
“Before 1950 the rate had averaged a sluggish one or two centimeters a year; by the end of the century it was twice that.”
Weren’t we supposed to notice that howler? Was it a test to make sure we read it?. Have I passed?
Tonyb
Joy, can you show me the Hansen prediction ?
“For sea-level rise, the next key verification test is simply this: Will sea-level rise accelerate in the coming decade or two? … as James Hansen and many other climatologists have predicted? “
What have the climate alarmists of global weirding done—at a cost of billions of dollars—that really has been worth the candle? Wouldn’t we all have been much better off simply paying them to just take a hot shower and go back to bed?
Errors, misinformation, bias and distorted reporting of natural events is the problem today, not receding glaciers and melting icepacks. Ignorance of history is the problem not human CO2. We can demonstrate these truths by looking at facts through the eyes of the observer who wrote the following:
“It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a considerable change of climate inexplicable at present to us must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years greatly abated… This, with information of a similar nature derived from other sources; the unusual abundance of ice islands that have during the last two summers been brought by currents from Davies Straights into the Atlantic.”
Is the above evidence of GLOBAL WARMING? Yes, but, this is global warming as reported in “a letter from the President of the Royal Society to the British Admiralty” in 1817. Despite the fact that society clearly suffers from Hot World Syndrome today (see infra), AGW did not cause global warming back then just as it is not causing the globe to warm now
Fears about receding glaciers also can be attributed to the serious lack of quality education in the dropout factories of the failed governmental-education complex. Moreover, there are some who have a special interest in putting forward a distorted view of the world; and, before the secular socialist revolution they were called liars.
Climategate is the direct result of joint efforts by frightened world leaders to
become rulers rather than leaders of the public by “playing God” and saving the world:
_ a.) Form the United Nations (Oct 1945) to avoid nuclear war, and
_ b.) Obscure Information (1946) on energy in the neutron-rich cores of heavy atoms and stars that destroy, create or sustain life on planets orbiting pulsars by surrounding it with an abundant flow of energy.
Oliver K. Manuel
Former NASA Principal
Investigator for Apollo
http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/
Joy Black writes, without apparent irony: “our present understanding of climate-change has already survived some very tough verification and validation processes.”
Points for sheer cheekiness, Joy. Care to share some of these “tough verification and validation processes?”
Honest to God, JOy, I try my best to understand you warmists. It doesn’t bother you in the slightest it seems, how spectacularly wrong Hansen’s been thus far. Can you explain to this wide-eyed skeptic how this can be so?
Thank you for your questions, pokerguy.
(1) The American Institute of Physics (AIP) website “The Discovery of Global Warming” thoroughly documents the tough, centuries-old, (and still ongoing!) process of climate-change verification and validation.
(2) With respect to James Hansen, with the benefit of 31 years of hindsight, his 1981 article “Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide” (a Google search will find it) looks nearer to being spectacularly correct, than spectacularly wrong. Climate Etc. folks are strongly encouraged to read this article for themselves!
In light of (1) and (2), if it should come to pass — as many climate-change scientists think likely — that sea-level rise accelerates substantially in the coming decade or two, then it is a reasonably safe bet that James Hansen will receive a Nobel in Physics and/or Chemistry and/or Peace.
Which he will deserve. :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
James, is that you?
Joy,
Re validation processes: Let’s not conflate “climate change” with the now in vogue “climate change” which we all know is but a desperate attempt to distract us from the fact that the planet is no longer warming, and very likely on the cusp of a substantial cooling.
I will read your the 1981 article you suggest as unlike most warmists I know, my mind remains open. I shall report back!! (be still that heart of yours :-)
Joy
I don’t want to admonish you but when you cite something it is normal to link to it (provided it isn’t beyond a pay wall.)
Here is a version of the 1981 Hansen paper you cited but expected us to find;.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~davidc/ATMS211/articles_optional/Hansen81_CO2_Impact.pdf
Scholars will note that one of his co authors was S Lebedeff who in 1987 helped Hansen co author the famous and influential;
“Global Trends of Measured Surface Air Temperature”
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1987/1987_Hansen_Lebedeff.pdf
which of course precipitated the infamous 1988 congressional testimony when Hansen deliberately stage managed the internal temperatures for maximum effect. He makes few predictions in his paper so I don’t know why you believe he was spectacularly correct
Joy, it needs to be pointed out that Hansen drew very heavily on Callendars 1938 Co2 theories AND his work on global temperatures, his work is not original. This is why Callendar is known as the Father of the Greenhouse theory-not Hansen (or Arrhenius who of course had several goes at estimating sensitivity but only his 1896 effort is ever quoted.)
tonyb
“He makes few predictions in his paper so I don’t know why you believe he was spectacularly correct.”
CR,
Thanks for the valuable additional information. Do you know offhand what those few specific predictions were? .
On a comical note, the abstract of Hansen’s article accurately foresaw that AGW would open “the fabled Northwest Passage“.
Yes, Russian hippies sailed the Northwest Passage last summer … in a ludicoursly small rubber-raft! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Pokerguy
Under ‘projections into the 21st century’ he makes some predctions and also there are a few graphics.
Look forward to joy’s comments on my 3.18 and 2.34
tonyb
Whoops, try this link: When [the Russian boat] showed up in Clyde River, Nunavut, last month from Greenland, a Mountie there said it looked like something out of the TV sitcom Gilligan’s Island.
Heck, not even Hansen foresaw the Arctic changing *this* radically! :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Joy
Your link was a 404
Tonyb
“if it should come to pass … that sea-level rise accelerates substantially in the coming decade or two, then it is a reasonably safe bet that James Hansen will receive a Nobel in Physics and/or Chemistry and/or Peace.”
Well yes, the one for Political Correctness (“Peace”) has already been hopelessly cheapened by the IPCC / Gore case, so it that is certainly possible. But have they now even descended to giving the Physics and Chemistry ones for groundless guesses ?
Judith, you started out by saying:
curryja | May 1, 2012 at 7:52 am |
I politely and clearly asked you to point out the examples of where I was reporting other people’s words as your own, saying:
In response to my request that you back up your accusation with evidence, you have responded as follows:
curryja | May 2, 2012 at 9:39 am
Whoa, whoa, back up, please. You started by accusing me of putting other people’s words in your mouth. In my world, that’s a very serious accusation. I really, really don’t like it when other people do it to me, and I make every effort not to do it to someone else. In the face of this ugly and in my opinion totally unwarranted accusation, I asked you to back it up with evidence.
In response to that, Judith, your ethical choices are to either point to the evidence for what you are claiming, or to apologize. You can’t suddenly make a new claim and forget about the old one.
For the person in the street, that’s bad behavior. But for someone espousing clear and honest communication, that’s way over the line. That is the kind of response I got from Phil Jones, totally unresponsive to the questions. So let’s resolve your first accusation before we move on to your second accusation.
Did I report other people’s words as yours, as you accused me of doing, or not?
If so, tell us where. And if not, apologize.
You want clear and effective scientific communication?
It starts with you.
w.
PS—I hope this request is not too abstract or cognitively complex for you to answer, I’m told that’s a huge problem in scientific communication …
PPS—I hope you understand that I only put in the PS above to point out how cluelessly insulting your quoted author’s ideas are … the problem is not that the public can’t understand climate science very well.
The problem is that from bitter experience, the public understands climate scientists all too well …
Willis, my own experience has been:
• Posts that politely point out your own posts’ factual errors draw no response (from you, at any rate),
• Whereas your recent long-and-rambling “he said/she said” accusational posts make very little sense that anyone (except you?) can readily discern.
So why not respond factually to the former, and cease the latter?
Joy, you refer to this post of yours that you want me to reply to:
I fear I didn’t reply because your example had nothing to do with my statement. I was talking about a governed system, that is to say a system with a governor.
In response you cited an airplane wing, which is not a governed system, because it has no governor.
Since you clearly didn’t have a clue what you were talking about, I thought it better not to disturb your ignorance with actual facts.
However, since you insist, I can hardly avoid pointing out that you are in total mystery about governors and governed systems. Come back when you understand what a system with a governor is, and why having a governor means that there is no linear relationship between input and output. It’s basic control theory, shouldn’t be hard to understand.
w.
PS—Your arrogance in answering for Judith? Priceless …
Willis “An airplane wing … is not a governed system, because it has no governor.”
—————————–
:?: :oops: :?: :oops: :?: :oops: :?:
Willis, any aircraft’s autopilot *is* a “governor” … specifically, a continuously-operating controller, that governs the aircraft’s attitude, bearing, and speed, via small (and sometimes not-so-small!) control inputs, for which the nonlinear turbulent flow over the airframe poses no fundamental difficulties.
See for example Langton’s Stability And Control of Aircraft Systems: Introduction to Classical Feedback Control (Wiley, 2006).
Hmmmm &hellip So could it be, that our planet’s temperature responds to CO2 inputs, with the same predictability that a 747 responds to control inputs from its human or robotic pilot … even though in both cases the dynamics is entirely nonlinear … with CAGW as the foreseeable end-result?
The question is asked politely, Willis. :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
Joy Black | May 2, 2012 at 3:20 pm | Reply
OK, I’ll play your silly game and pretend that you said one word about an autopilot, although your claim was solely about a wing and made no mention of either a pilot or an autopilot …
To avoid you shifting the goalposts again, let’s start with your definition of what the “governed system” is that is under discussion, what the “inputs” are to that system, and what the “outputs” are.
Me, I’d say you can’t define the system as the wing, because that doesn’t include the autopilot that you conveniently have now added to your previous claims about the wing. The wing is just a control surface that is controlled by the governor (autopilot), so it can’t be the entire “governed system”. The governed system is the entire airplane.
I’d say the inputs to the system are all of the different forces that are acting on the airplane.
And I’d say that the output is the constant elevation maintained by the autopilot. That is to say, the governor (the autopilot in this case) maintains a steady output (elevation in this case) despite fluctuating inputs (the forces acting on the plane). That’s the job of the governor. Are we clear?
Which is why I say that in a governed system, there is no linear relationship between the inputs and the outputs. The forces on the airplane vary all over the place, but the elevation stays constant.
Your turn … and please, lose the smilies. They make me feel like I’m talking to a kindergarten class who have just been given a bunch of stickers and are sticking them blindly on everything in sight. They do not make your meaning clearer, they do not add to the conversation, they just make you look like a ditzy valley girl … the request is asked politely … or as you would say, the request is asked politely :smile: :grin: :lol: :mrgreen:
w.
Willis, I’m entirely content to be judged by the clarity, concision, respect, and politeness of my earlier responses.’
Oh yes … cheerfulness counts too. So let’s compromise; I’ll use *new* smileys! :wink: :razz: :cool:
Joy Black | May 2, 2012 at 4:07 pm | Reply
Hey, Joy, if you want to look like a twelve-year-old, that’s your choice, I won’t stand in your way. You might notice, however, that the adults here don’t use smileys …
w.
Gee, so we can stop focusing upon the terrible injustices done to Willis … and turn our attention to less urgent moral considerations? :wink: :smile: :grin:
Joy,
While I agree with Willis that the smiley thing of yours is rather annoying and makes you look immature, I’d be more worried about your lack of understanding of aerodynamics and aircraft. It isn’t your strong point.
Joy,
You are a smilling troll.
Please continue. People know the difference when something is sweetened with saccharine.
Joy Black | May 2, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Someone did terrible injustices to me? Why wasn’t I notified?
w.
Because to date, only you can perceive them, Willis. Perhaps you should explain them again? :!: :?: :idea:
Joy
Your smileys are annoying
Willis: As an experienced professional pilot, I can tell you that you have the analogy correct. Joy does not. The autopilot and or pilots are continuously adjusting control input to maintain altitude as required from the external forces acting on the relative wind of the aircraft. This includes lateral flight with rudder and aileron inputs that must vary to maintain a particular true or magnetic course that is affected by the wind. This is no minor undertaking as I had explained to Joy that regardless of “small” control inputs at any specific time, the entire aerodynamics of the wing change with the variable speed of the aircraft that is necessary to maintain lift.
Her analogy was that small and predictable control inputs maintain directional control inspite of the “turbulent eddy and flows” overr the wing ( which was also wrong ) and those small inputs were like adding CO2 that givs a predictable rise in temperature regardless of all the other atmospheric “noise and chaos”. She concluded her analogy by claiming [overcontrolling] is similar to adding too much CO2 and causes a [crash] runaway catastrophic warming.
But Joy doesn’t consider the fact that during the flight from takeoff to touchdown the entire airfoil changes shape to accomodate those control inputs and as small as she thinks they are, they are assisted with either hydraulic and or electric trim systems that reduce the physical force necessary on the autopilot or pilots to move the control surfaces. In other words, her simple analogy just like in the real world is a gross oversimplification of her perceived magnitude of strength that CO2 has on temperature.
Not to mention like all warmers, she has the realationships backwards and insists that CO2 drives temperature by being able to amplify water vapors optical depth and no consideration is ever given to the brake energy on temperature dictated by the Clausious/Claypeyron equation for the saturation vapor pressure of water. Same thing as saying that electric trim, flaps , slats and spoilers have no bearing on the “small and predicable” control inputs inspte of the other chaos going on over the wing. But without those, the aircraft becomers uncontrollable and crashes which would mean that Joy’s simple, small and predicatble CO2 inputs are gross exaggerations on reality.
Chuck,it’s clear that you know how to fly a plane, and also how to trim an autopilot … but it’s a whole lot less clear that you know how to program (for example) an autopilot’s gain scheduler. Whereas Willis’ inchoate ramblings leave me uncertain whether he appreciates — in any quantitatively rigorous sense — how any of these various things are accomplished.
Can we conclude that you learned to fly at wikipedia?
Get real Joy. Now you really look silly. The gain schedulaer is exactly pointing to the analogy I have just used.
You lost this one, Joy. You should quit while you can save what little face you have left.
Chuck, please let me recommend to Climate Etc. readers the sobering history of catastrophe associated to maladjusted aircraft trim controls. :oops: :sad: :cry: :shock:
Then ask yourself “Is it really OK for the Earth’s heat budget to be massively out-of-trim?”
Hmmm … perhaps it would be prudent to move that CO2 trim-adjustment back to where it was, rather than blithely assume “Our planet Earth, she’ll keep flying somehow!”
” “Is it really OK for the Earth’s heat budget to be massively out-of-trim?”
Your assuming the earth is (was) at some optimum climate equilibrium to begin with…
“…perhaps it would be prudent to move that CO2 trim-adjustment back to where it was…”
Joy, we can’t put that jeanie back into the bottle anytime soon. Turning off the power plant isn’t going to help the situation either and a rubber band isn’t going to be enough. You need to offer up something possible.
Folks whose gut reaction is not similar to Gene Kranz’, are (IMHO) not well-suited to the challenges of our 21st century.
Your carbon neutral friends are to be admired…and rare. It took over 20 years for the majority americans to get HD TV, which was a simple task compared to the majority of americans changing their energy production and usage to carbon neutral within the next 13 years… dreaming is a good thing Joy, but at some point you have to wake up and face reality.
John, please let me fix it for you.
So you might be worried, John … but most Americans aren’t!
I’m not sure where you got the idea I am worried.
Joy,
You are pushing your analogy to the point of absurdity, and further. And you continue the aircraft analogy even after pilots point out you are wrong. Do you think you are achieving anything that is positive for you by doing this?
I’d rather not use your silly aircraft metaphores, Joy, beacuse you already had your tail chopped there. : D
You, like all the other warmers insist the earth is out of an energy balance from increasing CO2. But just like your silly aircraft analogy that’s only half the story. If the spectrally integrated OLR doesn’t decrease with increasing CO2 the argument becomes absurd nonsense. And that is the way you warmers treat it. With unworkable cloud physics and a false assumption that CO2 can amplify the atmospheric water vapor optical depth which the record shows has not happened. The up and down fluctuations over the last 60 years were clearly linked to the changes in the PDO cycle. Add the two trends and its pretty much flat but decreased slightly by .649% from the mean of about 2.5 prcm’s. The mean theoretical forcing by CO2 is about .5 Wm-2 since 1960. Applied to the first 700 meter depth of the oceans that is .22 degC and doesn’t match the actual temperature rise, it was over twice what theory predicted being in the .4-.6 degC range.. That would tell you ocean warming of the last 50 years was solar induced, far more wavelengths were involved and they coudn’t have been from water vapor.
Fact of the matter is, CO2 cools the mid and higher troposphere in exchange for a higher emission height. Not a good mix for amplifying water vapor like the failed models did. The founding work never suggested any of this nonsense that CO2 drives temperature for that very reason. That was an assumption invented with climate modeling and its obvious it failed and didn’t work.
If we’re talking about effective communication in science, I agree with Willis that we could start by warmers ( Hansen, Mann and the likes ) admitting their claims have been falsified by the real record and that as with the founding principles, admit that CO2 does not control the OLR, which is what controls the greenhouse factor, G. Water vapor and clouds do this and CO2, if anything, trims out water vapor by a rising content through radiational cooling of the troposphere. It has no destabilizing effect in climate that has been demonstrated to date. To continue to deny this and lie about it is what I find deplorable and disgusting. Especially when the warmers want innocent citizens to engage in carbon reduction strtaegies that I already showed you upthread are but absurd exercises in lunacy that will never accomplish any stated objective. That right there should make even the less scientifically astute realize that CO2 to temperature sensitivites are dicked up and failed concepts because of the wrong created assumptions about water vapor.
If you can’t see that, then according to carbon reduction calculations, you should just give up now and plan your funeral soon because Hansen’s failed models will have the temperature cooking soon as there is no way to stop atmospheric CO2 growth unless the oceans cool to a new equilibrium pressure.
Pokerguy and Climatereason, as it happens, dana1981 has posted an in-depth review titled “
Lessons from Past Predictions: Hansen 1981.”
Very impressive accuracy for 30-year predictions. :!: So yes, if sea-level rise accelerates, then Hansen’s a shoe-in for a well-deserved Nobel. :idea:
Joy: Skepticalscience is a hack site that lies frequently about climate issues:
http://www.c3headlines.com/2011/10/skepticalsciencecom-the-ss-global-warming-propaganda-lie-machine-exposed-fundamentally-evil.html
Here is James Hansen’s record that he submitted to the US Senate in 1988 and what his climate modeling predicted. It is a disaster and complete failure. reference page 7 of the document. It is called “history lesson 1988”.
http://waysandmeans.house.gov/media/pdf/111/ctest.pdf
Chuck, because dana1981’s review is quite short and clear, perhaps Climate Etc folks might want to read it and make up their own minds, independently of you and me. :idea: :?: :idea:
Joy: It would be apparent that anything Hansen said in your article was clearly superseded by the later presentation to the US Senate in 1988. I don”t know where these predictions surfaced from that you portray, but I will trust the US Senate record over anything a junk site like skepticalscience presents that has altered the past record when caught in dishonesty. There is no question about what Hansen’s climate models projected in 1988. Those model projections are unmistakable failures compared to the actual record.
Readers of Climate Etc. are invited to verify for themselves that dana1981’s review uses scanned images that are taken directly from bound-paper copies of Hansen’s 1981 article.
A very impressive prediction by Dr. Hansen. :smile: :idea:
Joy Black, I’ll probably examine that post at some point, but seeing as it’s posted date is my tomorrow, I’m not in a rush. In the meantime, I’ll point you to a similar post by dana1981. You can find an updated version of the post through it, or follow this link.
As discussed in the comments of those pages, as well as of this blog post, dana1981 used dishonest means that would cause any reader to be mislead. The short version is he cherry-picked a data set which caused his position to appear stronger than it was. He also used a starting point for a graph which minimized the discrepancy between the prediction and temperatures he displayed.
Had he displayed a different data set, or even all available data sets, his argument would have been weaker. Had he used a different starting year, his argument would have been weaker. These actions are especially important as he said:
In the very same series of posts you now cite, dana1981 made choices which unduly minimized the discrepancy between what he compared. Moreover, he made no effort to inform readers of his decisions.
So yeah, I’ll look at that post at some point. However, I won’t expect much, and neither should anyone else.
Joy: All climate modeling has failed in the current record. The global hiatus and falling US continent records were not predicted. In the Northwestern US where I reside, modeing projected a 1 degF increase in the temperature over the last 10 years. It fell by 1.61 degF, an error of 2.61 degF. Very large for just a decade. These are supposed to be “improved” over what Hansen’s failures were in 1988.
You are delusional if you think CO2 is driving the climate or that this doesn’t falsify modeling and the claimed relationships. It goes right back to honesty in science. I don’t see any honesty or frankness coming from you. Just more back pedaling and defending the indefensible.
Oh, right. I forgot two other points about dana1981’s post. First, dana1981 posts two different figures with temperature series in them. His first figure comes from the IPCC, and it uses the HadCRUT series. His third figure is one he made, and in it, he uses GISTEMP. Not only does he fail to explain why he makes this change, he doesn’t even acknowledge it was made. This means the reader would have no way of knowing the two series are different. This is especially important as HadCRUT was running cooler than GISTEMP, meaning it would have made dana1981’s comparison look worse.
Second, dana1981 arbitrarily rebaselined the series for his main figure (Figure 3), forcing the two series to appear to have greater agreement than they do. This decision was just some choice by dana1981, and it wasn’t even disclosed.
To put it bluntly, dana1981 made undisclosed (and unexplained) decisions which would make his conclusions seem more supported than they were.
And that’s the source you’re telling people to read, Joy Black.
Readers of Climate Etc. are invited to compare for themselves the concision and clarity of dana1981’s review to the frothy disorganization of the various skeptical reviews linked above … shall we call this phenomenon “Willis syndrome”? :?: :idea:
I took a quick glance at that article you linked to Joy Black, and it appears dana1981 is up to the same tricks. He’s deceptively rebaselined the data, and he is only showing GISTEMP. Despite both of these being obviously wrong, and despite people pointing out he’s done them before, he is still doing them.
You refer to “concision and clarity” in the post, and yet, Figure 5 serves only to mislead people.
Brandon Shollenberger | May 2, 2012 at 9:37 pm |
” He’s deceptively rebaselined the data, and he is only showing GISTEMP.”
Well, here is the original 1988 diagram. You can superimpose whatever dataset you like, and baseline it however you think is fair.
Pielke Pere addresses Dana1981 in his 5/2/12 post @ Climate Science.
===================
Joy,
I hope you realize that referencing anything by dana1981 is damaging to your crediability.
Joy Black
Here is comparison of prediction vs observation => http://bit.ly/kxhJ9i
Conclusion:
Hansen’s predictions are “spectacularly wrong”
Girma,
Pay attention, Joy is trying to discuss Hansen’s 1981 predictions, not his 1988 predictions.
Bob: Hansen’s 1981 “predictions” appear to be fabricated to cover up the 1988 predictions which are a matter of record:
http://www.c3headlines.com/climategate-climate-liars/
Kyle Swanson reaches the same conclusion in this realclimate post from a starting point of dynamical complexity – a numerical approach to what was already claimed by the NAS and others as the new climate paradigm. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/07/warminginterrupted-much-ado-about-natural-variability/ There are many other scientists studying decadal variability that are just a google away. In hydrology we have been saying for decades that decadal and longer scale variability is the norm.
Here, a new and improved means to quantify the coupling between climate modes confirms that another synchronization of these modes, followed by an increase in coupling occurred in 2001/02. This suggests that a break in the global mean temperature trend from the consistent warming over the 1976/77–2001/02 period may have occurred. (Swanson and Tsonis, 2009)
Hansen in one of his newer essays claims that ocean warming in the ARGO period is due to an energy imbalance. Certainly it must be but this cannot originate in the atmosphere. One of the ways that oceans warm is that the atmosphere warms increasing downwelling IR, reducing the difference between downwelling and upwelling IR resulting in energy accumulating in the oceans. This was not the case in the period so that ocean warming must be caused by something else. There are in fact a very limited number of other factors that appear in the TOA power flux anomalies as determined by CERES – which Hansen inexplicably neglects.
I can’t even be bothered denying that I am a sceptic. Despite arguing consistently for years that pragmatic means – especially in technological innovation – of reducing carbon emissions were warranted. If people like Hansen haven’t got up to speed with what is blatantly obvious – then they part of the problem.
Same conclusion – that is – on the underlying rate of warming after deducting natural variability – http://s1114.photobucket.com/albums/k538/Chief_Hydrologist/?action=view¤t=ensosubtractedfromtemperaturetrend.gif
I am a bit too busy for this. There is an old recipe for science – have fun, make mistakes, get messy
Before we’re quite finished with poetry, thx Chief for the lovely lines by Jamie King-Holden:
‘There is a place invisible to the tar-scarred suburbs
And cars’ headlong violence,
Where the bank is pillow-soft and transforms nightly,
When the moon turns its back on the water.’
Reminds me of The Tempest’s’ sea-sorrow,’ ‘sea-change’ language. I’ll buy the book. Funny about theTrades Hall poetry reading, I’m going there on the 15th May as a friend is putting on his new play.
‘Where we dipped our feet in the quick-cool stream;
Where you and I built sandcastles.’
Joy Black !!! congrats on taking to task this sideshow alley, you are obviously witty well versed and woefully wong !
I’m sceptical about being sceptical, probably like the rest of us yogi bears. forget the polar variety, yogi’s rule okay !
I made an earlier comment, ill formed, in which I criticised the american military machine. I was trying, (very trying) in my incoherent way, to point out the connection between the american supply of military equipment to 3rd world despots, under the cloak of UN stealth. whilst (sorry w, the st denotes past tense and removes pedantic humour about fiddling with sticks), whilst I know next to nothing about it, at least I’ve asked the question.
perhaps, Joy (and others) you would like to comment on that ?
Joy, I have a wicked sense of ‘humor’ (american spelling), I like a literally literate alliteration, so if I call you ‘my boy’, Joy, don’t be coy, it’s a toy !
seriously though, Joy, (how oxymoronic is that?) I assume you would have us join the local agenda 21 neighbourhood action committee ?
here’s a comment I made on another site (TED via facebook, join me if you like)
” I googled ‘oil discovered in magma’, found many sites, e.g. russia, argentina, but copied this. “Supporting Evidence, Briefly
Oil being discovered at 30,000 feet, far below the 18,000 feet where organic matter is no longer found.
Wells pumped dry later replenished.
Volume of oil pumped thus far not accountable from organic material alone according to present models.” my earlier comment was cut short. the gist of it was that ‘global warming’ is/was a means by which the UN could implement ‘Agenda 21’, which is a design to institute global governance. now, after 15 – 20 years of global cooling, the new excuse to remove western wealth and devolve industry is ‘species extinction’. the irony is that depopulation (of humanity) is a prime objective, as well as removal of private property. global warming really is the public face of a much more sinister agenda that has already cost millions of lives. that’s what 18 months of reading tells me.about an hour ago · LikeUnlike.William Martin to continue briefly, largely the internet is not censored, and this creates problems for governments who are corrupt, and I guess they all are to some extent biased etc. people are using the internet for news, rather than the mainstream media, which have traditionally been the means for propoganda. moves are afoot to censore said net, e.g. in australia, which has been captured by the UN . our biggest problem is how to get rid of the UN. in a nutshell, the UN is controlled by despots. typically, they receive money from western nations, buy an army, kill their opposition, including villagers in order to plant their token biofuel or whatever. but hey ! business as usual, our history is full of genocide ! ”
that is my moral judgement on climate change
Hansen Prediction => http://bit.ly/HJa3Bn
Observation:
#Data processed by http://www.woodfortrees.org
#Please check original source for first-hand data and information:
#
#—————————————————-
#Data from NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
#http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
#—————————————————-
#
#File: GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
#
#Time series (gistemp) from 1880 to 2012.25
#Averaged and compressed in 60-sample sections
1880 -0.255667
1885 -0.2685
1890 -0.329
1895 -0.19
1900 -0.219833
1905 -0.294833
1910 -0.274
1915 -0.250167
1920 -0.198
1925 -0.137833
1930 -0.083
1935 0.0035
1940 0.0876667
1945 -0.0193333
1950 -0.0356667
1955 -0.0121667
1960 -0.00416667
1965 -0.0243333
1970 -0.00783333
1975 0.0133333
1980 0.173333
1985 0.196667
1990 0.238833
1995 0.397833
2000 0.486833
2005 0.552667
#Data ends
#Number of samples: 26
#Mean: -0.017448
Mr. Orssengo
Did Dr. Hansen in his graph use ‘compress 60’ or some other method for generating his 5 Year Running Mean? Oh, wait, that question answers itself.
Why did you convert Dr. Hansen’s method (btw, it is usually considered polite when ‘borrowing’ from another scholar to fully cite the source so others can examine the full source; what you’ve done is just another plagiarism)?
What is the effect of your abusive manipulation of the GISS information?
You skew your samples by 2.5 years, and introduce a cooling bias of 0.025C over the entire period.
#Number of samples: 1505
#Mean: 0.00814175
And in the upshot: the actual data matches Dr. Hansen’s Scenario B quite well, or exceeds it.
So, Mr. Orssengo, what is your point?
Bart R, your post is crazy:
Girma may not have cited well, but that in no way justifies accusing him of plagiarism. Specifically said it was the “Hansen Prediction.” How in the world does attributing work to the one who did it qualify as plagiarism. Are you seriously claiming he copied Hansen’s work without attribution while calling it Hansen’s work?
Brandon Shollenberger | May 3, 2012 at 12:11 am |
Sure. Mr. Orssengo does not cite well. Many online work to lapsed standards compared to academic measures; however, 1) Mr. Orssengo is so habitually misleading and enterprisingly free with the truth that it takes a great deal of work to find out what was actually originally said when he claims to be quoting someone or something, and 2) Mr. Orssengo has a PhD and practices as an engineer, so is by both of those credentials expected to uphold a higher standard.
Would it have killed him to include a page number, title of source document containing the graph, and maybe a year of publication? Hansen’s produced quite a few graphs; it’d be maddening to sort through all of them in the hopes of coming up with Mr. Orssengo’s unadorned extract to see what Dr. Hansen put in his narrative. So yes, seriously, plagiarism, and of a serious sort.
(You see what happens when I do it, posting the results of some other curve for the GISTEMP; my numbers differ from yours, but we can’t know why because I didn’t show the ordinary courtesy of saying what curve I was using. Then again, I don’t claim to be a PhD or a professional engineer.)
Here’s what I recommend, btw, as a superior 5 year running mean: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp-dts/mean:29/mean:33 — the timespan is the same as mean:60, but the distortion is less.
..
1882.5 -0.192445
..
2009.67 0.733438
#Data ends
#Number of samples: 1527
#Mean: 0.0112912
And one may argue gistemp-dts is superior to the LOTI for the purposes of matching what Dr. Hansen intended in his scenarios.. except we can’t tell because someone neglected to mention the source work in such a way we could check up on that.
And yes, 2.5 years skewed matters, reduced data points matters, given the N/S differences globally it might matter a lot, but who is going to sit down and try every one of 59 different possible starting months for the compress:60, to find out? Why do it wrong when right is just as easy?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp-dts/from:1882.5/compress:60/plot/gistemp/from:1882.5/compress:60/plot/gistemp/compress:60
Bart R
I am sorry.
Here it is (Figure 3b) => http://bit.ly/dIE9Ad
Bart R:
You know what, I’ve dealt with enough insanely stupid comments in this topic. I’m not going to bother with any more of yours. If you want to believe giving an imprecise citation is plagiarism, you can. If you want to tell people saying, “This is Hansen’s graph” is taking credit for the graph, you can.
You’ll look like a fool, and practically nobody will take you seriously, but hey…
Brandon Shollenberger | May 3, 2012 at 2:07 am |
Plagiarism means different things in different circumstances. Of course we’re not accusing Mr. Orssengo of taking Dr. Hansen’s ideas and passing them off as his own work without crediting Dr. Hansen. We’re saying that Mr. Orssengo is making it unduly difficult to ascertain the precise thing Dr. Hansen did actually say, by neglecting in the first instance (now corrected, to Mr. Orssengo’s credit), to simply furnish some short identifying information.
See the way scientists cite other scientists in their papers? With the little footnote numbering, and source, author, year, publisher, page? That’s a citation. Doing so allows ideas to be traced back to their origins. It lets the chain of proof be checked and rechecked. It allows the tree of related and connected papers and ideas to be traversed. It’s a standard of PhDs and engineers.
This wouldn’t be such an issue, except Mr. Orssengo in the past has cited Dr. Hansen in ways that turn out to have been diametrically opposite to what Dr. Hansen actually said. So we find ourselves in the position of being extraordinarily sensitive to and skeptical of Mr. Orssengo’s claims.
By the way, if you want to compare Girma’s running mean, made with the compress function, to a simple running mean, that’s easy to do. Your results will be:
The only practical difference between that approach and Girma’s is Girma’s reduces the data points to a manageable number, something which can be posted in a comment on a blog. Unless you think those results are significantly different than:
Yeah, Girma’s approach makes such a huge difference.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp-dts/from:1958.5/compress:12
Page 9437, Fig. 3a from http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1988/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf appears to be bang on for 2010 with Scenario B. That’s pretty impressive a quarter century later. It _proves_ nothing per se, however if Mr. Orssengo’s rationale from earlier posts were to be credited, it’s akin to absolute evidence of Dr. Hansen’s claims.
Brandon
Thanks very much
For 2005, from your link the annual GMT is 0.557 deg C.
From my link, it is 0.553 deg C, a difference of only 0.003 deg C!
There is not much difference.
Bart is not being reasonable.
Hansen for 2005 predicted a running mean of 1 deg C for business as usual, which is clearly wrong.
Girma | May 3, 2012 at 2:23 am |
And yet, you’re the one using the land only GISS, when Hansen’s discussing land and ocean temperatures; you’re not using correct technique, which makes it harder to distinguish whether the differences in numbers are due mechanical methods or due other causes, and on GISTemp-dTs, we see “2005.5 0.74” for the annual mean of 2005 (say, what was ENSO doing that year? Hansen isn’t very good with ENSO all-in-all, is he?), which is much closer to Hansen’s Scenario B than it is to, for example, your proposed model, or to the ‘No-GHE Trend’.
“I found the six challenges to be very interesting and insightful. From the conclusion of the paper it is clear that the motivation of this study is “in rallying first our hearts, and then our hands, to action.” The six challenges seem to me to be very difficult to overcome, and I doubt that better communication strategies will be effective in rallying action.”
The six challenges do not address the dishonesty problem, thus Professor Curry did not address it. In admitting the six challenges as insightful, rather than bizarre in view of the omission, her commentary supports Willis’ contention. The six challenges are presented as the problem.
And OJ’s problem was that he communicated in less than optimal fashion. If he had talked it out, discussed his uncertainty openly…
Hansen’s predictions….
Shouldn’t we first be more intersted in HOW they are formed, rather than WHAT they predict ? Random doomsayers could accidently get something right, but that is no reason to become their acolytes. Even Bart Simpson sometimes gets something right.
Exactly. +1.
So how DID he form them then ?
Does rather look like some combination of his political predilections and some innovative self-administered medical procedure involving a partial vacuum.
In other words as Chief would say, the predictions were pulled out of his *rse :)
Hmm and I must say I never knew he had middle initial.
Bart R | May 3, 2012 at 2:15 am | Reply
Here’s an overlay of the HadCRUT3 temperature dataset over Hansen’s 1988 prediction.
http://homepage.mac.com/williseschenbach/hansen's_prediction_1988_plus_hadcrut3.jpg
As you can see, the HadCRUT3 data is not a bad fit to the observations up until 1988. And it’s passable up until about 1998.
But since then, far from being “bang on” for Scenario B, by 2011 scenario B is no less than six tenths of a degree warmer than observations. Since that’s about the size of the entire warming of the globe over the 20th century, that’s a huge miss in my book, not “bang on” or “impressive” in any sense.
w.
Yeah.. and if the whole of the 1988 paper weren’t covered in GISS, you might have a stronger point about the HadCRUT3 thing. Sure, Hansen’s stuff diverges, but then that’s not surprising.
It’s far more interesting to consider which diverges more: the with-GHE trend, or the without-GHE trend?
I fear I don’t understand what you mean when you say:
What does “covered in GISS” mean in your world?
I don’t understand this either. Which trend is with the greenhouse effect, and which is without? Are you claiming that Hansen showed some trend in which the greenhouse effect from both H20 and CO2 and CH4 and all GHGs have been removed?
The only one of Hansen’s trends that the observations are at all close to is “C”, which is where CO2 emissions are frozen at the year 2000 level … are you saying the world is following that scenario?
In any case, the observations diverge widely from Hansen’s B scenario, the one you say is “bang on” … how about you comment on that?
w.
What does “covered in GISS” mean in your world?
Have a look.
…pubs.giss.nasa…
..As Forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies..
..(GISS) model II..
All before the end of the first paragraph of the paper, reminding us the people who put together GISTemp exist, and oh, look, they have their own GMT trend line.
Is it better? Worse? Fairer? More accurate? Less? How? Why?
Whatever else it is, it ought be mentioned in the conversation and some reason for discarding it given. Wouldn’t you mention a dataset that was colder still than HadCRUT3, if one existed and withstood scrutiny? Shouldn’t more information give us better bases to judge from?
Are you saying you’re unfamiliar with the argument that modellers make, that they have never been able to produce late 20th century warming on any model run without figuring in anthropogenic causes?
Sure, A, B, and C diverge from what actually happened, and from what happened on all extant datasets of GMT. It would be impossible for all three to be right, unless one used three or more of the datasets, and it would be very remarkable indeed for any model to get so much right as you suggest ought have happened to validate that Hansen may have been onto something.
So when I say bang on, I say not relative to the actual, but relative to an impressive degree of precision, when compared to alternative explanations. The Orssengo projections, even made at much later dates, are worse than the Hansen projections of a quarter century ago, for instance.
The fact that Hansen predicted warming in broadly the time and broadly the scale that actually happened makes Hansen’s hypothesis interesting. The fact that no other well-documented and well-developed hypothesis performs nearly so well makes Hansen’s hypothesis the most interesting of the lot. However, climate is a very nonlinear domain, so predictive power itself is poor evidence alone, in any single dimension like GMT.
Bart R | May 3, 2012 at 11:36 pm
Sure. I’m also familiar with the argument of the creationists, that they haven’t been able to explain the world without figuring in God … both arguments have the same amount of logical suasion, that is to say, none. The fact that you cannot explain something does not mean that you get to pick a cause.
Actually, the modeler’s arguments are weaker than those of the creationists. Everyone knows that pulling variables out of a tuned model is guaranteed to make it perform worse, so that is an expected outcome, not support for their hypothesis.
Finally, surely you understand that “I can’t think of anything else it could be, so it must be CO2” is not a valid argument. Unless you can show that you have not only included all variables, but have included them correctly, the argument falls apart.
w.
Willis, the actual conundrum was that it has warmed less, not more, than expected from the changing GHG forcing, which is where aerosols come in. It became clear that their effect modified that of GHGs which have been known since Arrhenius. In your distorted view CO2 was invoked in retrospect to explain the warming when it was not unexpected (see Hansen 1981).
Willis Eschenbach | May 4, 2012 at 12:41 am |
Ah, but there’s a subtle distinction between “I can’t think of anything else it might be..” and, “Of all the explanations to date, the one that best fits is..”
See, I’m not claiming the graphs of GMT prove AGW by CO2. I’m saying the graphs of GMT prove Dr. Hansen’s is interesting enough to look at and explore more by other means.
It’s those other means that come together to make a confident case for AGW by CO2.
Indeed, until BEST (preliminary release) and now HadCRUT4, the confidence that the graphs alone were representing global warming of any sort at all were below 95%; and now the confidence of that claim is above 99.5%. Before BEST, we had to go to things like Arctic Sea Ice and glacier ice retreats, longitudinal shifts in habitat for plants, microbes and wildlife, changes in length of growing season, permafrost depth, and perhaps three dozen other measures to confirm global warming.
Speaking of which, when we take the same approach of looking at the whole body of knowledge of accumulated observations across disciplines, the _anthropogenic_ basis of the now-established global warming reaches similar levels of confidence. You _could_ reject global warming, or anthropogenic global warming, but the odds you were right would be less than five in a thousand, based on current observations.
At this point, we can ask which of the alternative explanations put forward to date can we reject confidently? Well, we can reject the zodaicists who claim other planets are the chief influence in terrestrial climate. And the solarists who claim the chief influence since the mid century has been changes in the Sun (though of course the Sun could change in ways that would dwarf anything we’ve seen in any temperature record, it just hasn’t been that variable in the past century), they can be rejected too. We can reject simple constructive interference of regional natural variation by random coincidence. We can reject UHI alone (though it may play some net positive role). We can reject friction from pantyhose (at about the same level as solar variability). The list of alternate explanations put forward and examined and rejected is long and gets longer all the time. Might one of the rejected explanations actually be right? Sure. Is it worth it for us to invest as much time and effort into each of the clearly rejected alternatives as into the better of the not-yet rejected hypotheses? Not that I can see.
To carry that forward, what are the odds CO2 can be confidently implicated as the major anthropogenic cause of global warming? I agree, the level is not quite 95% for that claim; however, as _a_ major cause of anthropogenic global warming? We’re likely at that point now.
What are the odds the thermal sensitivity of CO2 per doubling is above 2.2 once effects like aerosols are removed? That too is at or about 95% confidence.
Bart, since you mentioned GISS, I’ve gone back and added the GISS LOTI temperature observations to the 1988 prediction. The location is the same
http://homepage.mac.com/williseschenbach/hansen's_prediction_1988_plus_hadcrut3.jpg
As you can see, there’s no significant difference between the two, and both are about 0.6°C different from Hansen’s Scenario B …
w.
And GISS dTs?
GISS dTs? What are you talking about? I added GISS to the analysis. It fares no better than HadCRUT. How about you discuss that?
w.
You added LOTI, not dTs.
Entirely different outcome.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp-dts/mean:29/mean:33/from:1988/plot/gistemp/mean:29/mean:33/from:1988/plot/hadcrut3vgl/mean:29/mean:33/from:1988/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:29/mean:33/from:1988/plot/best/mean:29/mean:33/from:1988
The five most nearly global datasets range for 2005 peak monthly average on the 5 year running mean between 0.45C and 0.99C. BEST’s 95% Upper Confidence curve hits 1.08C in 2005 on the 5 year mean. With a range of over half a degree between high and low value for these datasets (its authors agree BEST is high; just as HadCRU agree HadCRUT3 is low, but still..) we can’t express much confidence in the 2005 peak 5 year running mean temperature, but it appears 0.78C +/- 0.29C covers a 99.5% confidence. Dr. Hansen’s curves fall within this; Mr. Orssengo’s do not. Dr. Hansen has before and in the original paper and since provided mechanical explanations and physical hypotheses for the divergence of his estimates from observation; Mr. Orssengo just complains that there’s a divergence in projections from observation and throws up some very technically suspect lines on the page as ‘alternate models’. Which is insufficient. You don’t just need an alternate line on a graph, you need an alternate explanation, too.
Why?
Because alternate explanations can be tested, just as Dr. Hansen’s hypothesis can be tested, in other ways than just goodness of fit of a projection vs. future observations. We can see where, for example, alternate explanations involving solar differences fail based on TOA observations and changes in heat at various altitudes and simple lack of correlation of trends with solar activity since the mid century. We can test the various zodiacal alignment of the planets arguments (while holding our noses) and find they don’t hold water — some of them with much better correlation than Mr. Orssengo’s unexplained trigonometric curve — at all. We can make something out of a mechanical explanation that may further our understanding in new ways. A simple line on a sheet of paper is child’s play. It’s finger painting, if it lacks a credibly testable hypothesis.
To clarify, where I say “Mr. Orssengo’s lines”, I mean only that when we apply the methods Mr. Orssengo has said he used in more recent years as if he had only the information available to Dr. Hansen in 1987, we find Mr. Orssengo’s trigonometric extrapolation would have produced a figure somewhere in the range of +/- 0.3C for 2005’s peak 5 year running mean, which clearly is not what actually happened.
Further, as the bulk of opinion in the scientific community in the five years preceding 1988 anticipated cooling globally, Dr. Hansen’s prediction of warming is more remarkable. Does this prove anything, other than the bulk of scientific opinion is often silly? Not so much.
Bart R | May 4, 2012 at 11:13 am |
Thanks, Bart. I didn’t use dTs because it’s land-only. Well, not exactly land-only. It’s land-mostly. But Hansen’s 1988 paper, if I understand it, projected not the land-only temperature but the global temperature. Why would I want to compare that to a land-only dataset? What am I missing?
w.
Why would I want to compare that to a land-only dataset? What am I missing?
Other than me being wrong? :D
Ocean data is highly questionable, and adds so much uncertaintainty that it may be better to discard it entirely, go with land-only, and admit to a high bias, rather than to include ocean and tolerate wild fluctuations that might add a decade or two to the time we can judge whether the fluctuation is representative of real global trend, or just another issue of measurement.
If we’re asking about general global mean temperature level, including ocean is more meaningful. If we’re asking about global mean temperature trend over periods less than two decades, excluding oceans is likely better.
Are we trending like Hansen A, B, or C? Or are we at Hansen A, B, or C temperatures?
Hansen’s projection isn’t built out of actual temperature observations, so our ability to interpret what comparison is most right is making a difference to our decisions.
Overall, to tell whether Hansen A, B or C was well-represented by 2005 data, I’d want to wait to 2020 or so to say, given how little like 1987 the data was in 2005, and how much more like Hansen.
Bart R | May 3, 2012 at 3:11 am |
Hey, if I were a bureaucrat caught having made such an asinine production, I’d “repudiate entirely its findings” too … you seem impressed by that. I find it pathetically predictable.
Sorry, Bart, but we know it was a collaboration between Le Monde Diplomatique and UNEP. We know it was published under the UNEP logo. For them to now try to throw Le Monde Diplomatique under the bus is just typical bureaucratic CYA bull.
I fear that the Pottery Barn rules apply here. The UNEP claimed the report. I would be shocked if they did not pay for it. They said they were the authors of the.
Now they want to say oh, no, it wasn’t us, by no means, it was those bad boys over there … sorry, you break it, you own it.
w.
Willis
You can see on your chart that a 1 degree rise would put us into the Eemian era temperature range, from which comes Hansens belief that sea levels would rise by up to 15m by the end of 2100
tonyb
Willis, everyone is familiar with the frothy disorganized arguments of evolution skepticism … and here on Climate Etc., the arguments being presented by climate-change skepticsm are similarly frothy and disorganized. :idea:
What psychological mechanisms sustain evolution skepticism? And are these same mechanisms acting to sustain climate-change skepticism? :?:
When we compare sites like The Institute for Creation Research to sites like What’s Up With That?, the similarities in reasoning style and argumentation methods are striking indeed. :!:
As the evidence for evolution becomes stronger and more unified year-by-year and decade-by-decade, evolution skepticism becomes increasingly strident and marginalized. And nowadays a similar stridency and marginalization is becoming markedly evident in climate-change skepticism.
Your froth is clearly showing Joy. It is beliefs in and god and CAGW (and the priesthoods that sustain them) that are becoming marginalized, and skepticism thereof more unified.
Punksta, is Darwinian evolution in your view:
• a discredited belief system whose existence is sustained solely by a cabal of self-serving and/or corrupt and/or incompetent scientists and their liberal collaborators in the main-stream media (MSM) or
• a plain factual truth that is being slowly yet inexorably refined by the fallible, relentless, cumulative processes of science. :idea:
Sites like The Institute for Creation Research advocate the former position, by styles of argument that are strikingly parallel to the arguments of climate-change skeptics.
Why are the arguments of evolution skeptics and climate-change skeptics so eerily similar? :?:
Climate models shown fallible, by the relentless, cumulative processes of nature.
=======
Joy
We would all get on much better if you didn’t group all sceptics together in the belief that we are all knuckle dragging creationist believing tobacco industry acolytes in the pay of ‘Big oil.’ We are many and varied in our beliefs as regards CAGW, which is at one time our strength and our weakness (for instance I am very different to Willis)
Most of us are perfectly rational and indeed many of us started off on your side of the fence, but after looking at the evidence we no longer believe in the ‘C’ bit of Cagw and query the extent of the ‘A’ bit.
tonyb
Joy,
Arguments from evolutionary biologists can have striking parallels to arguments from the young earth creationist, too, if the scientist happens to be a militant activist and named either “Richard Dawkins” or “PZMeyers”
In stark contrast to CAGW and god-belief (the adherents of which are eerily similar), Darwinian evolution is a well and increasingly supported hypothesis.
Joy,
Are you now going to point out that tobacco also causes AGW?
Maybe I’m the only one, but I’ve found the history of this blog’s trolls to be an interesting example of Darwinian evolution.
In this blog’s early days, smug, obnoxious, truly unpleasant, self-important, smarty-pants jerk-offs dominated this blog’s troll scene. But as these first-wave trolls consistently got handed their over-confident, not-quite-ready for the Darwinian prime-time doom-butts, “The Team” adjusted.
And there then ensued a second-wave assault on this blog by a new breed of troll–greenshirt “living-dead” types–littering this blog with hundreds of non-stop, zombie-bot comments utterly lacking in wit, interest, or worth. But this last contingent, used to performing their relentless, zits-for-brains, wear-you-down stunts within the context of lefty controlled, censorious, protected speech forums were totally unprepared for the Darwinian rigors of this blog. And, so, through some world-class, satirical rough-and-tumble, “The Team’s” second batch of creep-out weirdos were sent packing, just like their evolutionary loser predecessors, by this blog’s worthies.
Which brings us to “The Team’s” latest flash-mob tactic–flood this blog with “smiley-face” trolls. And, by that I refer to the this blog’s recent infestation by squirrely, goof-ball, screw-lose, overly-friendly trolls modeled on those persistent, unwanted, can’t-take-a-hint, tag-along pests we all remember from childhood; those annoying, whiny, little dorks the teachers always made us other kids play with because they felt sorry for the little suck-ups; and those nerds with really serious personal hygiene issues who used to always stand way too close to you when they breathlessly related their latest, stupid, filthy little jokes that no one laughed at but themselves.
So I don’t have any real point to this comment, except, like, to say that I hope it adds to the discussion of Darwinian evolution in this sub-thread.
Willis Eschenbach | May 3, 2012 at 3:42 am |
Pottery Barn rules, though they certainly apply, don’t go nearly far enough, if your views hold.
An organization so large that the left hand doesn’t know what the even lefter hand is doing is a liability to itself and others, and needs fixing, if you’re right about how it happened..
Which is why it matters what actually happened, who said what, where the actual sources are and how they came to these results.
Which is why skepticism is valuable. It doesn’t stop at “well, someone said it, so it’s got to be right,” but it also doesn’t stop at merely, “I’m right, they’re wrong.” What use is that to anyone?
What value can we get out of the details, that people are running around repeating without investigating, if we investigate?
For one, that uncertainty was not communicated well from the original thinking that inspired the thinking that inspired the 50 million refugees by 2010 graphic, or that there’s something we haven’t read in the disclaimers.
Do you have the graphic on hand? Does it say “50 million by 2010”, or “50 million starting by as early as 2010?” Does it cite its sources at all?
Because I found this one as the authentic original: http://www.osce.org/eea/14851
“As far back as 1995 (latest date for a comprehensive assessment), these environmental refugees totalled at least 25 million people, compared with 27 million traditional refugees (people fleeing political oppression, religious persecution and ethnic troubles).”
In other words, the premise, the definition, of ‘environmental refugees’ had little or nothing to do with AGW per se, but with any condition of refugees displaced by “drought, soil erosion, desertification, deforestation and other environmental problems, together with associated problems of population pressures and profound poverty,” prior to 1995, which would be before the effects of the last seventeen really unusually warm and extreme years.
The 50 million claim? That’s not even half as alarming as the “When global warming takes hold, there could be as many as 200 million people overtaken by disruptions of monsoon systems and other rainfall regimes, by droughts of unprecedented severity and duration, and by sea-level rise and coastal flooding” claim.
So not the UN, but Oxford University, is the original author of the claim, and the Europeans (http://www.osce.org/who), not the UN at all, for sponsoring and publishing the paper.
See, now we’re making a bit of progress, no? And we’re only beginning.
Chuck Wiese | May 4, 2012 at 12:20 am |
If it were a concern of mine, it’d be a bit late for that, no?
The original demand was for documentation of 50 million climate refugees. Well, I’ve found the original document, after some investigation, and it’s not what people assumed, having been dragged through a few generations of inept handling and poor traceability.
No one gets to save face in messes like this.
No, you didn’t find the original document. You found the next to next to last document in the chain. The original document was funded by UNEP … which is what you had argued against from the start.
w.
We could go back to Gutenberg and the Dead Sea scrolls and the Bardo Thodol and still dispute which document was most original.
The methods and meanings of the claims matters more at this point than authorship. We’ve assigned blame for being confusing in what they said to some (though let’s face it, the confusion of many readers is their own fault too in part); what now do we do with the question, and with the facts discovered in tracing the source of the claims, does the question still bear relevance? We can’t know for another 2-3 years what the original question asked for, and we won’t be terribly confident in the answer even then, as things stand now with data gathering on the topic.
IT could be 50 million, or 200 million, and we really wouldn’t know if it were due climate change or politics or religion.. and as intertwined as those three are becoming, we may never be able to disentangle them.
Bart
Is there much difference between the two graphs in the following plot?
http://bit.ly/IXaJ3A
Bart, don’t jump into name calling please.
The fact remains Hansen predicted a 5-year running mean for 2005 of 1 deg C for business as usual, but the observation shows only about 0.55 deg C.
Compressed data = smoothed data but what inference can we place on this given such a short time scale?
GISTemp-dTs vs LOTI (2005):
2005 0.716167 0.557333
2005.08 0.715167 0.557167
2005.17 0.7185 0.558833
2005.25 0.719667 0.558667
2005.33 0.722667 0.559333
2005.42 0.723 0.559167
2005.5 0.725667 0.5595
2005.58 0.718167 0.550833
2005.67 0.713 0.546667
2005.75 0.715667 0.548667
2005.83 0.714833 0.547833
2005.92 0.71 0.545833
Or compress(60): 2005=0.718667, vs. LOTI: 2005=0.552667
Both dTs and LOTI (and HadCRUT3, and even HadCRUT4) are below Scenario A&B; and that’s entirely to be expected.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1880/compress:60/plot/gistemp/mean:60/plot/hadcrut3vgl/to:1987/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/to:1880/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1880/to:1910/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1910/to:1940/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1940/to:1970/trend
#File: hadcrut3vgl.txt
#
#Time series (hadcrut3) from 1850 to 2012.25
#Selected data up to 1987
#Least squares trend line; slope = 0.00289791 per year
1850 -0.446976
1987 -0.0499624
#Data ends
#Number of samples: 2
#Mean: -0.248469
We can’t really look at the Orssengo prediction made in 1988, however if we used the same techniques and arguments as used today, without the benefit of a quarter century more data, we’d be looking at a prediction of what, 18*0.00289791 = 0.05216238 -0.0499624 = 0.02C for 2005?
Which one is closer to between 0.55C and 0.72C?
Dr. Hansen’s Scenario at 1.0C?
Mr. Orssengo’s 0.02C?
(For those who can’t subtract, that’d be Hansen, by a wide margin.)
Satellites Bart R, Technology does march on :)
http://i122.photobucket.com/albums/o252/captdallas2/UAHTLTsince1988.png
Since Hansen predicted in 1988, the chart starts December 1987 so you get a GISS year. Do you know that Hansen corrected data so it would start in GISS years? Made for some pretty interesting splices.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Max_min_bulbs.JPG
Those old school max/min thermometers were hard to beat. They didn’t care what time you read them, they just recorded what happened since the last time they were reset. So while some minor adjust may be needed, the newer stations replacing the old school LIG max/min had more issues.
Then with poor coverage and limited records, sometimes surface station data has to be created where non-existed. Especially in the southern hemisphere.
I am impressed in your “faith” in the surface station record. Not particularly impressed with your common sense. Why chose an obviously warm biased data set when there are options?
You mean my faith that they’re within a quarter to half a degree on a five year running mean, nineteen times in twenty? That’s considerably less faith than most express.
I wasn’t convinced there was decadal warming at all on the GMT until BEST and HadCRUT4, at a level above 95%. That doesn’t sound like enormous faith to me.
Whose faith are you comparing mine to?
Best, HADCRUT4 and GISS all have the same limitations, the limited data they have to work with. The 1990 to present data is pretty good, but more by luck that skill. The average of large regions not well covered in a dynamic system will show its inadequacies. With both HADCRUT and GISS increasing their northern exposures :) they are diverging more from the satellite trends.
http://i122.photobucket.com/albums/o252/captdallas2/UAHpoleandtropicfrom2005.png
That appears to be pretty rare, the poles and the tropics all trending down, even for a short period. It may even be “unprecedented”
http://i122.photobucket.com/albums/o252/captdallas2/GISSpoleandtropicfrom2005.png
With GISS, one outta three is bad.
Dear Folks
Let us please once and for all establish whether Hansen et al 1988 prediction is correct or not.
Here is my comparison of prediction Vs observations:
http://bit.ly/JPvWx1
It would be great if you could plot the comparison and post it here.
Thanks in advance.
But what dataset did you use for observations? And to what baseline?
And is your running mean centred?
Nick
Here are the details.
It is the 5 years running mean.
#Data processed by http://www.woodfortrees.org
#Please check original source for first-hand data and information:
#
#—————————————————-
#Data from NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
#http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
#—————————————————-
#
#File: GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
#
#Time series (gistemp) from 1880 to 2012.25
#Selected data from 1960
#Averaged with 60-sample running mean
Well, without centering sets the observed back 2.5 years.
I noticed you said above that Hansen’s result was 1C in 2005. My eyes said about 0.75.
Nick
I am talking about scenario A (business as usual case)
Girma,
You need to evaluate a scenario projection against what actually happened. And it wasn’t scenario A.
Mr. Nick Stokes, Do you feel safe when you drive a car?
Tom
More to the point do WE feel safe when Nick drives a car? Just joking Nick. There are some good one liners here from Tom. Kim, Hunter Joy and Bad Andrew.
Tonyb
I mostly ride a bicycle. And no, I don’t always feel safe.
Nick
I have an electric bike whose battery I power with a little solar panel. But then again I need help to get up our steep Devon Hills (or get part way up)
tonyb
Don’t forget that in 2011 Darwinian evolution was disproved too!
It’s all been rigorously demonstrated, with references and graphs and everything. :roll:
Joy, your hay house is denizened with straw creatures. CO2 as climate control knob is as quaint as a 6,000 year old Earth.
====================
kim,
If one were to delete Joy’s repetitive posts, and then her red herrings, and finally her straw creatures, she would evaporate from this blog.
As Hansen et al 1988 Scenario C is identical to observation, I predict no warming until 2030 as shown by this scenario.
http://bit.ly/JPvWx1
Newsflash for Joy:
Global Warming/Climate Change is the biggest con job since… Evolution.
Andrew
100% agree
Uh….which would mean that it is not a con job at all. You are then correct sir!
Joy, here’s more lies from Climate Scientists. There were no death threats.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/02/breaking-death-threats-against-australian-climate-scientists-turn-out-to-be-nothing-but-hype-and-hot-air/
Why should anyone believe anything from these particular liars ?
Though I do believe they communicated the lie exceedingly well.
Oh do stop going on and on about climate scientists lying – there’s absolutely nothing in the Six Psychological Challenges and Six Psychological Strategies that says they mustn’t.
It’s just what they do ffs.
Mustn’t do it poorly. These guys did not rise to Peter Gleick’s level of sophistication in evidence production.
Willis => http://bit.ly/Jt0LW9
Girma => http://bit.ly/JPvWx1
Credit must go to GISS for publishing this contradictory data to Hansen’s prediction.
you really need to show your work and not just your result.
everytime I try to to reproduce one of your charts from scratch I get a
different answer that changes the conclusion.
This is marketing not science. AGW is a manufactured product. It isn’t selling well. This is no more than an attempt to improve sales not by improving the product but by improving its marketing.
Then they should spend a lot less on crazy stuff like satellites.
Or an alternative; spend their time in honest work and honest communication.
Michael, no worry.
http://www.postcrescent.com/article/20120503/APC0101/305030069
Have yourself a lager mate.
Hansen et al 1988 VS observation
1) Girma Orssengo => http://bit.ly/JPvWx1
2) Willis Eschenbach => http://bit.ly/Jt0LW9
3) John Christy => http://bit.ly/c2Ymut
4) Steve McIntyre => http://bit.ly/K44nSA
5) Debunk House => http://bit.ly/IoUHAd
6) Pielke Jr => http://bit.ly/IGjPHp
7) Lucia => http://bit.ly/IoXTfd
8) Skeptical Science => http://bit.ly/9gOuIT
9) C3 Headlines => http://bit.ly/KsJyx2
CONCLUSION
Hansen et al 1988=>“Scenario C drastically reduces trace gas growth between 1990 and 2000 such that the greenhouse climate forcing ceases to increase after 2000”
From the comparison by nine independent sources given above, the observed global mean temperature matches Scenario C. However, we did not drastically reduce trace growth between 1990 and 2000 such that the greenhouse climate forcing ceases to increase after 2000. As a result, manmade global warming is not supported by the data.
Here is more on the manipulation of the Hansen modeling forecasts that Joy Black touts as “accurate predictions” that make Hansen eligible for a Nobel Prize in her opinion:
http://www.c3headlines.com/climategate-climate-liars/
About a third of the way down, it appears that NOAA NCDC folks are adjusting temperature data to get a steeper upward trend in the 100 year record so as to contiune the fallacy everything is still warming when looking at longer mean periods like thirty years. This stuff is deplorable. Deliberate distortions like this justify swift firings with no pensions to the perps.
It appears the Hadley CRUTEM4 data set has also been manipulated:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/03/has-the-crutem4-data-been-fiddled-with/#more-62667
The “communication problem” Judith and Joy is the fact that warmers that are in control of tempearture data sets and their own work continue to deceive, distort and lie to the public about it.
Bart R | May 3, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Willis Eschenbach | May 3, 2012 at 3:42 am |
Thanks for the analysis, Bart, well done.
As to what happened and who said what, these kinds of claims are so common that the exact details don’t seem so important. But let’s follow the trail anyhow.
We get the value of showing that, once again, the UN is pushing bogus stories. I fear I don’t see the value in figuring out the exact parentage of the lies. But onwards, ever onwards …
Yes, it’s here. It says “fifty million climate refugees by 2010”.
The map that accompanies the claim gives that as the source as well. It’s from Norman Myers, You go on to quote the following from that citation:
You cut off the quote a bit too soon, however. It goes on to say:
So in fact, the UN estimate is much lower than the estimate from Norman Myers. Not surprising, Myers is well known for unscientific exaggeration. I find the following comment interesting:
I’m sorry, but I don’t see where the progress is. We have a bogus claim, based on air, and put forward by an alarmist professor. The claim was then picked up and promoted by the UN as being science … but there’s a bit more to the story. You’ll love this. You’ve missed the sting in the tale, the irony in the final underlying source.
The paper you reference is a speech given by Norman Myers in 2005. However, it’s not the “authentic original”. His speech in turn is based on Myers’ 1995 paper called “Environmental Exodus: An Emergent Crisis in the Global Arena“. Despite your claim that he was not talking about climate refugees, in that paper he has an entire chapter on the effect of climate change and how it creates “environmental refugees”. Among many other outrageous claims, he says “In conclusion to this chapter, the aggregate total of people at risk from global warming as calculated above is 182 million”.
But here’s the sting—care to guess who is listed among those funding Myers’ 1995 study?
The United Nations Environmental Program … and thus the story comes full circle, and lands back on the doorstep of the UN. After all of your claims about how the UN was just hosting the document, or recommending the document like Google, after your claim that it is just some guy in France working on a private project, after your claim that it’s just an Oxford University document … we find that the original research was PAID FOR IN PART BY THE UNEP.
So will you now, at last, finally admit that yes, this claim is the responsibility of the United Nations?
Finally, how is this different from Amazongate, or Himalayagate, or any of the other UN-gates? What does it show us, what have we learned from your excursion through to the next-to-last source, and my pointing out the final underlying source?
That the UN promotes bogus claims without checking them? We knew that already. That activist professors at Oxford are often full of BS? Knew that too. That the claim was basically just made up? That Norman Myers is an unregenerate alarmist? That the UN pays professors to tell them what they want to believe?
We knew all of that already.
I mean, I admire your diligence in getting almost to the bottom of the story, and there’s a certain closure to doing it. It’s a good piece of scientific excavation that you’ve done, I commend you for your perseverance.
But me, when I find a pile of dog-shit on my lawn, I just get rid of it, I don’t go find the dog and check its pedigree …
My best to you,
w.
Willis Eschenbach | May 4, 2012 at 12:28 am |
http://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/genetic
Unlike physics, matters of refugee demographics really aren’t subject to credible examination by other tests than to actually go out and make actual observations.
http://www.un.org/esa/population/meetings/tenthcoord2012/Census%20and%20Migration%20Questions%202012.pdf
As of January of this year, little more than a third of the world has reported census information for the 2010 period (anything from 2005 to 2014). We’ll have to wait a couple more years at least to get something like a decent world census for 2010; and less than 34 of the 180 census areas even track something usable in estimating refugee numbers. So to the demand for documentary evidence of how many environmental refugees there were in 2010, we can now produce an answer: something like it won’t be ready for another 2-3 years, it will only be about 19% representative of the refugee and migrant population at all for its coverage area, and it will not distinguish between refugees from climate, environment, persecution or other causes, or even refugees from migrants. There may be other efforts to make such a count, but even if there are, the differentiation between environmental refugees due natural causes and environmental refugees due climate change will inevitably be contentious.
Bart R | May 4, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Hey, wait a second. After a long trail, between us we’ve finally tracked the refugee claim all the way around full circle to find that it was originally funded by the UNEP.
You have been saying all along that the UN was blameless. You started by saying it was just curating the information. Then you said it was from Le Monde Diplomatique. Then you said it was just some french guy’s claim, nothing to do with the UN. Then you said it was Norman Myers.
Now, when it’s been chased to the end and we find it was in fact a UN claim … now you want to talk about anything but the fact it’s the UN’s claim. Now, you want to pretend we were talking about whether the claim is accurate. Now, you want to say I’m judging the report based on where it comes from … have you lost the plot entirely?
But let’s play your game for a moment. I’m judging the report on the basis that we have not seen anything like the foretold 50 million refugees from climate change. It would have been in every newspaper and media outlet around the planet.
And now you say that we have to wait for the census around the planet to see if there are 50 million refugees hiding under a rock somewhere? What, you think nobody would count or notice millions of refugees unless there’s a census?
I swear, dealing with you AGW supporters is infinitely frustrating. After you making one claim after another about how the UN had nothing to do with the refugee claim, I show the UNEP funded the claim … and suddenly, you have no interest in the whole issue. Suddenly, you want to pretend that the real subject wasn’t what we’ve been discussing all this time, the real issue is an accurate measurement of numbers of refugees … which in best AGW fashion won’t arrive for some years, by which time you hope your foolishness will have been forgotten …
Even a “gosh, I guess I was wrong” would do a lot to improve your reputation, Bart. Your sudden change of subject is unseemly, it makes you look evasive and shifty. I don’t think you are … but it sure gives that impression.
w.
http://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/the-fallacy-fallacy
I’ve been blaming the UN and UNEP for quite a bit. They’ve been confusing. They’ve presented two opposite statements simultaneously in public. They’ve got a traceability issue that would make a money launderer drool.
And yet, we don’t even know if they’re really wrong. Why? Because the 2010 figures for refugees won’t be out for another 2-3 years, and further because there’s not really a very good standard for saying if a refugee is climate, environmental, persecution or otherwise caused.
We can say refugee issues are not in good shape, and we can expect they’ll could get worse, and it’d be nice to be able to estimate what each nation will expect to face in terms of refugee situations in coming decades. Those estimates are bound to be uncertain; wouldn’t it be great if the source of uncertainty were due actual measurement limitations rather than the confusion, fog and blundering of bureaucratic organizations?
And to spell it out, I’ve been wrong many, many times, on this thread and elsewhere; I don’t expect to be right all the time.
Look at how many times I’ve given people the benefit of the doubt they’d use logic or be susceptible to reason, and been proven wrong. ;)
Jim D | May 4, 2012 at 1:02 am |
I have no idea what any of that means, Jim. Warmed less than who expected? Who are “they” in “their effect modified”? What kind of modifications? What “effect … of GHGs … known since Arrhenius” is being “modified”? What view of my own is “distorted”, and how? How can CO2 be “invoked in retrospect”? What does Hansen 1981 have to do with all of the above?
In short, I can’t make sense of a single sentence. Sorry to say it, Jim, but from my side of the screen every line of that is unintelligible.
w.
I understand it perfectly. Theory, prediction, interim results, watch and wait.
WebHubTelescope: Well then if you understand, you know the theory. You know the predictions. We have the interim results, and we have and are watching the climate in hiatus and cool. Since this does not equal prediction, the theory has been falsified. It has failed. End of story.
Chuck
Hansen et al 1988 => http://bit.ly/JPvWx1
IPCC AR4 => http://bit.ly/HnYPQf
Chuck Wiese | May 4, 2012 at 2:40 am |
Except you’re presenting an argument not based on fact. Have a look at Mr. Orssengo’s IPCC AR4 image. The two sets of curves straddle the observations — which we know have no greater precision than a quarter of a degree among the several candidate GMT datasets, and Mr. Orssengo prefers to use the lowest of them — leaving considerable doubt as to whether we’re seeing the hiatus and cooling you claim, and some indication the IPCC projections made so long ago are well within range of actual observation.
And science doesn’t stand still. Better analyses and new observations of other factors and effects, and better accounting for uncertainty due nonlinearities like ENSO, have evolved our understanding of just how little we can get from the GMT curve in so little as a decade or two.
And recall, though Dr. Hansen used the 5 year running mean in his 1988 paper, it was considerably more commonplace to use a 30 year span for the GMT at that time, and for good reason as we can see.
Bart
Please don’t defend the indefensible. IPCC projections were made in 2005 => http://bit.ly/HnYPQf
Girma | May 4, 2012 at 5:23 pm |
The 2005 prediction was seven years ago, no?
Why, what’s this?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1985/plot/gistemp/from:1985/plot/hadcrut3vgl/compress:12/from:1985
Your chosen comparison curve is not just significantly lower than better datasets (according to its own authors), but you also use an invalid technique to smooth it, hiding the monthly data and how much it falsifies your claim.
Haven’t we had enough data hiding, Mr. Orssengo?
And just to illustrate the error with your compress smoothing, and the effect it has:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:11/mean:13/from:1985/plot/gistemp/mean:11/mean:13/from:1985/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1984.5/compress:12/from:1985/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1985/compress:12
Bart R | May 4, 2012 at 11:22 am |
Dang … any time a skeptic says that scientific opinion in the 1970s favored the idea that the earth was cooling, some AGW supporter jumps all over them. Me, I remember the ’70s, there was a lot of scientists saying cooling, and a lot saying warming.
However, there’s lots of papers out there like “The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus” by inter alia that staunch defender of free speech, William Connolley …
But by 1985 or so? Bro, I fear you’ll have to come up with some serious citations to claim that the “bulk of opinion” in the scientific community anticipated cooling globally in the mid-80’s … even skeptics don’t believe that.
w.
But did you actually read Connolley’s paper? Not, given your opinion of the author, that it would much matter, I take it.
As for the state of 1980’s cooling opinion, I did misspeak. somewhat
Peerless science: Peer review and US science policy by Chubin & Hackett (1990), covers some of the concerns I’d heard in those days: the data was pointing to warming. Many climatologists were arguing warming. (Maybe even most?) Theory was pointing to warming. Publishers and peer-reviewers were often blocking papers arguing warming, on the basis of their unfounded conviction of cooling. Replace ‘opinion’ with ‘”Opinion” in what I said, to represent that the problem was with opinion-leaders in control of publications, not the scientists themselves.
Punksta | May 4, 2012 at 5:52 pm |
Dentistry very obviously does not offer the justification for a massive lurch towards a more totalitarian society that CAGW does.
Ron Paul, clearly, disagrees with you on that.
Lacking any support that his chosen example of government-funded dentistry offers an opportunity to radically ramp up government power and impose impose trillions-of-dollars impacts on the world, in the way government-funded CAGW alarmism does, Bart closes his case with a vague one-liner claim that Ron Paul believes this.
Wow, does he now? I hadn’t realised. This is a truly devastating argument, certainly Bart’s best work here so far. I sure am convinced, yesssir. How about you folks?
http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?25087-Congressman-Ron-Paul-on-Fluoridation
That support?
And these trillions of imaginary dollars you think you have in your wallet that you suspect every sneaky climatologist in the world of conspi.. oops, forgot, you don’t like that word.. of ‘colluding’ to pick your pockets of, do they have the picture of a president on them, or of the tophat guy from Boardwalk?
As expected, no suggestion in your reference that fluoridisation can drive a totalitarian agenda anything like like CAGW can. Or even that Ron Paul believes that. What are you playing at here??
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcHNYenN7OY
You never lived through the Bircher wars on fluoridation? It was quite the topic in the 1950s when large water supplies started to adopt flouridation and yes, according to them it was the first (and often the last) step to tolitarianism. This will give you the rough flavor
==========================
Compulsory mass medication is medically evil, as well as socialistic. It is starkly clear that one key to any medication is control of the dose; different people, at different stages of risk, need individual dosages tailored to their needs. And yet with water compulsorily fluoridated, the dose applies to everyone, and is necessarily proportionate to the amount of water one drinks.
==========================
Oh yeah, just to close the circle the blog that Eli just linked to is owned and operated by Lew Rockwell who was Ron Paul’s chief of staff for some years and wrote (according to Paul) Paul’s newsletter for many years. Small world.
I am afraid that as a sceptic with limited time to keep following the issue, my need for efficient choices and to use my time best puts two black marks against this article straight away:
Firstly the title: :Climate change and moral judgement”. As someone trained in physics the term, “climate change” (a vague, much misused and now propagandist term, formerly a 4.5 billion year natural phenomenon) instead of “anthrpogenic global warming” indicates bias or lack of clarity or political correctness in place of fact or ignorance.
Secondly my training teaches me that science is fact based and moral judgment (other than in the case of biological or weapons based research topics etc) only comes once there is some reasonably established science. In fact making moral judgments first is the antithesis of true science. So I have not reached the stage where any moral judgement is anything more than a scientifcally dangerous source of subjectiviism and bias.
So thanks for the invitation but I will not be reading the article.
Converging evidence from the behavioural and brain sciences suggests that the human moral judgement system is not well equipped to identify climate change – a complex, large-scale and unintentionally caused phenomenon — as an important moral imperative.
Could that possibly be because the human moral judgement system of many of us has correctly identified that climate change is not an important moral imperative?
The approach of taxing the use of natural resources is indeed a Georgist one. He formulated it thinking mainly of land, but its use for use of the atmosphere – as with a Carbon tax (Australia, British Columbia … ) – is in exactly the same category. With Land as with Carbon, the state could do anything at all with the proceeds. George recommended social programs.
Georgist Land/Carbon taxes. Actually, looking over the earlier posts, I think I can see the half-a-point Bart R is grasping for.
IF land/carbon use is taxed, and the proceeds equally distributed amongst everyone, the effect is SIMILAR to what would happen if air was privatized.
The (huge) problem, as he half admits, is price levels. There is no way at all of mimicking proper supply and demand, and what will happen in practice is the level will simply reflect how much government wants to impose its energy-generation views onto its subjects.
And I do wonder how long the British Columbia politicians will resist the temptation to make the carbon tax revenue-positive ?
Greybeard | May 7, 2012 at 5:52 am |
The discovered art of reading harder. Not George, but Smith.
The British Columbia politicians may consider the idea of making the carbon tax revenue-positive, but to do that would require them going into the carbon tax act and amending it themselves in public in their legislature. It’s not something they can do in secret in hiding as a regulation, because it’s explicit in the act. So they would take the heat.
How bad is it to take the heat for a tax grab in British Columbia? Worse than California. The place has, and has used, a binding petition-and-referendum process to roll back tax changes they don’t like.
As for “mimicking” proper supply and demand, that’s easy. You don’t “mimick” it, you just do it the way business would. Raise the price until total revenues from fees on carbon emission hit their maximum. At that point, you’ve reached economic efficiency.
What’s that? You claim it’s a monopoly, or state power to regulate price? Not at all. There are alternatives to net emission of CO2E. As those are used, the revenue levels drop, and the price must come down to competitive levels to keep revenues maximized.
What’s that? If only British Columbia does it, it’s economy will collapse as neighbors and far flung nations poach the share of the carbon cycle that British Columbia isn’t using, but taking over the markets with their unpriced CO2E components? Well, wouldn’t that be an unfair trade practice, which under multiple trade deals British Columbia could sue the offending nations for compensation? Say, doesn’t Canada have such a deal with China? And NAFTA? And.. India?
There will be a meeting at the University of Chicago about the morality of dealing with climate change. Rabett Run has pointers to the position papers as well as a disputation of one of them
Eli
Interesting article. Might it be worth running past Judith as a topic, as the moral dimension and culpability are something the denizens might want to expand on?
tonyb
Omits consequences of letting politicians and bureaucrats get their hands on the energy supply.
Pooh, Dixie | August 10, 2013 at 5:51 pm |
Every bit of the ‘energy’ (by which you mean only and exactly coal, petroleum and natural gas) supply in the Market got there through the sale of royalties or drilling or exploration rights by bureaucrats at the direction of politicians.
I’m not sure I understand what your fragment of a sentence means; they have their hands on the stuff from the start.
Again, not so. The increase in oil production (and probably natural gas) has been on private lands. Any permitting for use (rather than safety) has come about by the government confiscating the citizens’ right to explore opportunities.
Not everything belongs to the government. Yet.
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