COVID-19: Updated data implies that UK modelling hugely overestimates the expected death rates from infection

By Nic Lewis


There has been much media coverage about the danger to life posed by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. While it is clearly a serious threat, one should consider whether the best evidence supports the current degree of panic and hence government policy. Much of the concern in the UK resulted from a non-peer reviewed study published by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson et al 2020[1]). In this article, I examine whether data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship – arguably the most useful data set available – support the fatality rate assumptions underlying the Imperial study. I find that it does not do so. The likely fatality rates for age groups from 60 upwards, which account for the vast bulk of projected deaths, appear to be much lower than those in the Ferguson et al. study.

Metrics for COVID-19’s fatality rate and their estimation

The fatality rate from infection (IFR), by age group, is a key parameter in determining how serious a threat the COVID-19 pandemic represents. Unfortunately, the IFR is difficult to determine. It is more practical to estimate the fatality rate for cases where the COVID-19 virus can be shown, by a standard test, to be present, whether or not there are any symptoms. This is referred to as the true case fatality rate (tCFR). The tCFR will overestimate the IFR, since a proportion of people who actually have been infected may show no viral presence when tested, either because they have already fought off and cleared an infection without any noticeable symptoms, or perhaps because they have pre-existing immunity. Nevertheless, where testing has been applied to a sample of people without regard to whether they show symptoms, the tCFR may provide a reasonable, albeit somewhat biased high, estimate of the IFR.

However, determining tCFR is not simple either, since in most cases infected people with no or mild symptoms will not be tested for COVID-19. Attempts have nevertheless been made to estimate tCFR by adjusting estimates of the CFR based on symptomatic cases only (sCFR), by adjusting for the non-random nature of testing, and also for the outcome of positive test result cases not being known for some time.

The Imperial studies

The Ferguson et al. study used estimates of the IFR[2] from another paper from the same team, Verity et al. (2020)[3], which had been published a few days earlier on 13 March. Very helpfully, Verity et al., unlike Ferguson et al., published the computer code and data that they used.

The Verity et al. CFR estimates were derived primarily from Chinese data, which reflected non-random testing. The authors obtained age-stratified IFR estimates (in reality, tCFR estimates) by adjusting their CFR estimates using infection prevalence data for expatriates evacuated from Wuhan, all of whom were tested for COVID-19 infection. This approach involves very large uncertainties.

An alternative approach to estimating the tCFR, as a proxy for the IFR, is to use data from a large sample of people, all of whom were tested for the presence of the virus without regard to whether they showed any symptoms, with all who tested positive subsequently being isolated and the case outcome recorded. I use that approach. While the sample of expatriates evacuated from Wuhan is too small for this purpose,[4] occupants of the Diamond Princess cruise ship do provide a suitable such sample.[5]  Moreover, the Diamond Princess sample has the advantage that it consists mainly of people from high income countries, and those requiring hospitalisation were treated in such countries.

The Diamond Princess sample may well represent the best available evidence regarding tCFR for older age groups, who are most at risk. Verity et al (2020) did analyse data from the Diamond Princess, but did not use sCFR or tCFR estimates from them for their main CFR and IFR estimates.[6]

The Diamond Princess death toll

When Verity et al. was prepared, the final death toll was not known. The data available only ran to 5 March 2020, at which point 7 passengers had died. The authors therefore used a fitted probability distribution for the delay from testing positive to dying to estimate that those deaths would represent 56% of the eventual death toll. They accordingly therefore estimated the tCFR using a scaled figure of 12.5 deaths.

Here, I adopt the same death rate model and use the same data set, but brought up to date. By 21 March the number of deaths had barely changed, increasing from 7 to 8. Of those 8 deaths, 3 are reported to have been in their 70s and 4 in their 80s. I allocate the remaining, unknown age, person pro rata between those two age groups. As at 21 March the Verity et al. model estimates that 96% of the eventual deaths should have occurred, so we can scale up to 100%, giving an estimated ultimate death toll of 8.34, allocated as to 3.58 to the 70-79 age group and 4.77 to the 80+ age group.

Accordingly, the Verity et al central estimate for the Diamond Princess death toll, of 12.5 eventual deaths, is 50% too high. This necessarily means that the estimates of tCFR and sCFR they derived from it are too high by the same proportion.

Numbers testing positive

The Diamond Princess dataset was published by the Japan National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID). I use the second version published on 21 February[7], which gives detailed data for 619 confirmed cases, updating it for subsequent test results.[8] Verity used the original 19 February version of NIID, which gave data for 531 confirmed cases, although they did update it for subsequent test results.

The entire set of passengers and crew, totalling 3711 individuals, was tested for COVID-19. Some 706 (19.0%) ultimately had positive test results, of whom (based on the NIID data for 619 of them) 51% were asymptomatic. The infection rate varied between 10.0% for ages under 30 years to 24.5% for ages 60+ years. The age-distribution was only known for cases included in the NIID data. Verity et al. assumed that the age distribution for the overall total of 706 confirmed cases was the same as for the 531 NIID reported cases that they used. I do the same, but using the later NIID data, with 619 reported cases. On that basis, 201.9, 266.9 and 61.6 people in respectively the 60–69, 70–79 and 80+ key age groups had positive test results.

tCFR estimate

Recall that tCFR is the eventual death toll divided by the total numbers testing positive.

My overall tCFR central estimates from the Diamond Princess 70+ age groups, where all the deaths are taken to have occurred, are 2.54% overall (8.34/328.5),[9] with a breakdown of 1.34% for ages 70-79 (3.58/266.9) and 8.04% (4.77/61.6) for ages 80+. For the 60–69 age group, there are sufficient test-positive occupants to make a crude median estimate of the tCFR, by calculating what it would need to be for there to be a 50% probability that no 60-69 year-old has died, as appears to have been the case. The thus-implied tCFR is 0.34%. There were too few Diamond Princess occupants in age groups below 60 with positive test results to provide any useful information about the COVID-19 tCFR for those groups.

Adjustments for false negatives and underlying death rates

It appears that in about 30% of symptomatic cases the standard RT-PCR test for COVID-19 infection gives a negative result when the patient is in fact infected.[10] There is no evidence of any COVID-19 related deaths among Diamond Princess occupants who tested negative, which would be consistent with a lower viral load being associated with a lower probability both of a positive RT-PCR test result and of eventual death. The false-negative rate may be slightly lower for Diamond Princess occupants, a few of whom may have been retested or tested by a more reliable method where they had typical COVID-19 symptoms but an initially negative RT-PCR test result. However, it seems likely that the proportion of asymptomatic infected cases that are not detected by a RT-PCR test will be somewhat higher than the 30% estimated for symptomatic cases. We accordingly adjust all the tCFR ratios estimated from Diamond Princess case data down by 30% on account of false-negative test results.

The observed deaths of Diamond Princess occupants occurred over a 45 day period, during which a non-negligible percentage of old people would be expected to die from non-COVID-19 related causes. I have accordingly deducted from the adjusted tCFR ratios an allowance for non-COVID-19 deaths for 70+ age groups, based on UK age-stratified 2018 death rates,[11] to arrive at estimates of deaths caused by COVID-19. There are arguments for the non-COVID death rates being either higher or lower than those for the UK population of the same age, but using those death statistics appears to be a reasonable first approximation.

Comparing the Ferguson et al. UK and Diamond Princess based fatality rate estimates

The results of the foregoing analysis are set out in Table 1. The key finding is that the estimated tCFRs for Diamond Princess 60+ age groups, which must if anything overestimate their IFRs, are far lower than the corresponding IFR estimates used by Ferguson et al. in the study adopted by the UK government.[12] Those age groups account for the vast bulk of projected deaths. For people aged 60–69, the Ferguson et al IFR estimate is 19.4 times as high as the best tCFR estimate based on Diamond Princess data, for the 70–79 age group it is 8.3 times as high, and for the 80+ age group it is 2.1 times as high.

Table 1: True Case Fatality Rates estimated from the latest Diamond Princess data compared with Infection Fatality Rates per Ferguson et al. 2019, used by the UK government

Note: An all-causes tCFR of 0.34% (and hence 0.69 notional ultimate fatalities)  is assumed for age-group 60-69 despite there being no actual fatalities in that age group (see text). Expected non-COVID-19 fatalities are based on UK 2018 death rates by age group applied to the DP positive test cases, scaled by the 45 day period over which COVID-19 deaths were recorded and divided by the same 0.96 factor used to scale up the 8 actual deaths. DP= Diamond Princess.


Based on the Diamond Princess data, the COVID-19 fatality rates by age-group assumed by Ferguson et al. appear to be far too pessimistic for all 60+ age groups, where the vast bulk of fatalities are projected to occur. It is quite possible that they are also too pessimistic for younger age groups as well, but unfortunately the Diamond Princess data are uninformative about death rates below age 60.

It is notable that for all the 60+ age groups the projected excess death rates, based on Diamond Princess case data, caused by COVID-19 is substantially lower than the underlying non-COVID-19 annual death rate. Even assuming, very pessimistically, that there is no overlap between the two, and that the same proportion of each age group becomes infected, projected COVID-19 related deaths from an epidemic in which the vast bulk of the population became infected with COVID-19 are only 9% of expected annual non-COVID deaths for the 60–69 age group.[13] For the 70–79 age group, the proportion is 20%, and for the 80+ age group it is 26%. Relative to the expected non-COVID deaths over two years, the approximate period during which very onerous restrictions are projected to be in force in the UK, these COVID-19 excess death proportions would each be reduced by almost half. In practice, a high proportion of people killed by COVID-19 will have serious underlying health conditions, and would be much more likely than average to die from non-COVID-19 causes.

Nicholas Lewis                                                                                           25 March 2020

Originally posted here

Update 27 March 2020

Since writing this article it appears that two more people from the Diamond Princess have died, bringing the death toll to 10. Although, as one or two commenters have pointed out, the Worldometer website has for the last day or two been showing 10 deaths, it cites no source for that, the World Health Authority Situation Reports show no change in the number of deaths, and my original searching of the Japanese language Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare reports showed deaths remaining at 8. However, I have now, using Japanese language keywords, found their reports for 24 to 26 March, which show an increase from 8 to 10 deaths. I have therefore updated my analysis to reflect that increase, as per the revised Table 1 below. No information as to age at death was given, so I have allocated the 2 further deaths pro rata to the 70-79 and 80+ age groups. I have not reduced the scaling up for possible future deaths to reflect the later date, as it appears that the probability distribution that Verity et al. used may not allow sufficiently for deaths occurring more than a month after testing positive for COVID-19. I have also updated the total number of positive test results from 706 to 712, in line with the latest Japanese report.

Although the tCFRs that I estimate for older age groups are now slightly higher, they are still far below the Ferguson et al. estimates. The projected excess COVID-19 deaths over annual UK deaths rates given in the final paragraph become 10%, 27% and 34% for the 60-69, 70-79 and 80+ age groups respectively. Accordingly, my original conclusions are qualitatively unchanged.

Table 1 (revised): True Case Fatality Rates estimated from the latest Diamond Princess data compared with Infection Fatality Rates per Ferguson et al. 2019, used by the UK government

[1]  Neil M Ferguson, Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand,  Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Report 9, 16 March 2020,

[2] Ferguson et al. adjusted the Verity et al. IFR estimates “to account for a non-uniform attack rate”, without giving further information about the assumed attack rates. They appear to have increased the Verity et al. IFR estimates for all 60+ age groups by approximately 19%, while making little or no changes to those for younger age groups. It is unclear whether doing so was justified.

[3] Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, et al. Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease. medRxiv 13 March 2020;

[4] Their sample of evacuated expatriates is 689 people, of whom on 6 tested positive for COVID-19, none of whom died.

[5]Russell et al., “Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship”, medRxiv preprint dated 9 March 2020, did use exclusively Diamond Princess data. However, the early data that they used was incomplete and their IFR (actually tCFR) estimates appear to be based on assuming 26 eventual deaths, and hence are far too high.

[6] Verity et al. simply noted that that figures derived from the Diamond Princess data set were “consistent” with their main estimates, meaning that they fell within their very wide main estimate uncertainty ranges.

[7] Field Briefing: Diamond Princess COVID-19 Cases, 20 Feb Update. National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan

[8] Using the same sources as given in Verity et al., for dates from 20 February on. Doing so yields a total of 704 positive test results, which I adjust to equal the cumulative total of 706 results stated in the final, 2 March 2020, update.

[9] A simple estimate based on the binomial distribution suggests that the 97.5% upper uncertainty bound is approximately double this figure.


[11] and

[12] Moreover, I am unable to reproduce the Ferguson et al. estimate of 510,000 deaths in the ‘Do nothing’ case, based on their estimate of 81% of the population being infected and using their IFRs. Note that the Ferguson et al. IFR estimates assume that, as was the case for the infected Diamond Princess occupants, health systems have not been overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases.

[13] Based on the Ferguson et al. assumption that 81% of the population eventually becomes infected.

505 responses to “COVID-19: Updated data implies that UK modelling hugely overestimates the expected death rates from infection

  1. This post reminds me of climate change modelling and the “business as usual” assumptions used to forecast future global warming. Scary sells.

    • The parallels run even deeper than you might think.

    • The modelling usually takes place when there is a paucity of real data points to make meaningful conclusions from.

      Similar nonsense came out early in the Foot and Mouth crisis twenty odd years ago.

      You would think that the Civil Service would learn, even if politicians don’t.

      But they do not learn either.

    • Have long admired Nic Lewis’ work. Numbers at this point seems premature and need to give way to grim reality. From Italy via New England Medical Journal (NYC and much of the US will be much worse shape in the coming weeks):
      “Our own hospital is highly contaminated, and we are far beyond the tipping point: 300 beds out of 900 are occupied by Covid-19 patients. Fully 70% of ICU beds in our hospital are reserved for critically ill Covid-19 patients with a reasonable chance to survive. The situation here is dismal as we operate well below our normal standard of care…. Older patients are not being resuscitated and die alone without appropriate palliative care…But the situation in the surrounding area is even worse. Most hospitals are overcrowded, nearing collapse while medications, mechanical ventilators, oxygen, and personal protective equipment are not available. Patients lay on floor mattresses. The health care system struggles to deliver regular services — even pregnancy care and child delivery — while cemeteries are overwhelmed….We have been in quarantine since March 10. Unfortunately, the outside world seems unaware that in Bergamo, this outbreak is out of control.”

      • TDMS

        Bergamo is one of my favourite towns. We often fly there and sometimes go onto the mountains. I have contacted our usual hotel and said I would like to make a booking for the autumn when this will hopefully be over.

        I think at this difficult time people need to be given some hope that things will return to normal and that others are thinking of them.

        Tourism is vital for this area


      • Yes, the civilian world is now being introduced to the world that is well known to the military, from time immemorial, and from which they have been insulated by the military, for the most part thanklessly. Triage has always been performed by the most senior surgeon, but in this situation, perhaps the most senior internist would be best.

        If the curve can be flattened enough to allow the ramped-up supply chains to catch up, and a vaccine to arrive, we may be fine, or at least not much worse than in prior years. Let’s hope.

  2. Thanks Nic Lewis for bringing in an air of reality.

  3. An interesting analysis, but still a whole raft of assumptions. It seems to me that people fit enough to go on a cruise are not as likely to die during any 45 day period as the general population, so that assumption is high. And the fudge factor of false negatives is simply someone’s opinion.
    A good approach, but the data are too few to be meaningful.

    • The false negative rate I use is NOT “just someone’s opinion”. It is based on analysis in the peer reviewed Ai et al. paper cited in the Science Daily article that I referenced. That paper is available here:

      It is true that people who are pretty ill are unlikely to go on a cruise. On the other hand, people who go on a cruise are IMO more likely to have a fairly inactive lifestyle, which is associated with a higher death rate.

      The Diamond Princess data set is of adequate size to provide useful information about 60+ age groups, and provides much more comprehensive and higher quality data than almost all other data sets.

      • Nic –

        > On the other hand, people who go on a cruise are IMO more likely to have a fairly inactive lifestyle, which is associated with a higher death rate.

        In your opinion? What is that opinion based on? Inactive as compared to whom? As compared to people of the same age who don’t go on cruises? What data do you use to formulate that opinion? What reasoning do you use to formulate that opinion.

        There are a whole host of reasons why the cruise data would be a terrible choice to consider a representative sampling. Primary among them, would be living conditions once cases were identified. For obvious reasons, life on board a cruise boat would differ from life under virtually all circumstances not on cruise boats.

      • Greg Goodman

        Nic, we often hear about 60+ or 70+ or whatever. Sure older people are more fragile, no surprise. However, Eschenbach looked at co-morbidity on the italian data and found IIRC 75% had blood pressure / heart problems. Common medication for this ( especially in Italy ) is ACEi and ARB which have been know since SARS in 2003 to open the way for the virus to its favoured point of attack the ACE2 receptor. Obviously national authorities prefer to present this as “underlying health conditions” rather than systemic weakness due to pharmaceutical drugs provided by the same state authority.

        Is there any similar patient history available from the cruiseship sample?

      • Nic –

        The more I think about it, the more your “opinion”-based approach bothers me.

        It’s hard to imagine a less representative sampling than people on board a cruise.

        They are likely an SES demographic outlier group.

        As such, they are likely an outlier group in terms of health habits, nutritional habits, healthcare behaviors, lifestyle behaviors, access healthcare behaviors and as such health status.

        And as I said before, how much of an outlier they are likely in terms of how they were living on board a cruise as compared to how people live their lives when not on a boat, living in cabins.

        I think there might be valid arguments that could run in a variety of ways for many of those influences; they might make prevalence higher in that group or lower. I wouldn’t know. But “opinion”-based assumptions and analyses based on such assumptions are highly problematic, and not of much value.

  4. Nic, At least according to Worldometer there were 2 more confirmed fatalities on Monday making a total of 10 amoung the passengers.

    • dpy6629, where exactly do you see that? The latest WHO situation report (no. 64) shows 8 cases at 10.00 CET 24 March.

    • I think they’ve probably made a mistake. The WHO daily Situation Reports show no change in Diamond Princess deaths over the last few days, and Worldometer doesn’t show any source for its figure. also shows 10 deaths; maybe that is where Worldometer get their figures from. BNOnews does cite a Japanese source. The Google Translate English version of it doesn’t seem to me to indicate that there were now 10 DP deaths. There have been one or two recent COVID-19 deaths reported from other cruise ships, including one run by the same company as the DP; maybe BNO included them in its DP deaths figure.

      • It turns out that I was wrong. See the Update to my article.

      • “The Political Advantages of Murky Data”

        Here is link to CDC report (March 23 or 26) on the two cruise ships, showing: “…10 deaths associated with cruise ships have been reported to date.”

        So 10 deaths for the two ships, Diamond Princess and Grand Princess. (Has someone from the Diamond Princess died since this report? Were some passengers taking a “Last Wish” cruise? )

        Considering the importance of these data, it would be very helpful for CDC to follow up on just 10 cases to determine the actual cause of death. How hard is that? The usual case-fatality reports merely show for people who were tested (usually tested because they were already sick from something): the # tests showed positive (= #cases), and then the # person died, not necessarily of Covid. But we need some much better follow-up for these 10 cruise ship cases, to know why they died. That information may greatly change the analysis conclusion.

    • Thanks Nic for following up on that!

  5. The Imperial study came from the same group that forecast 400,000 deaths from BSE a decade or so ago. To date it is 175.

    Their modelling is highly theoretical and did not examine all the factors

    To put things into context, we have some 600,000 deaths a year in the UK of which 140,000 (yes 140,000) come under the category of ‘avoidable’ everything from people dying of cold through to obesity and car accidents.

    In 2017 we had 28000 deaths from flu and in 2014 some 48000 deaths from flu.

    Each winter there is a chart compiled showing ‘excess winter mortality’ i.e those that died because of winter conditions rather than summer ones. That number varies wildly according to a variety of factors including the winter weather.

    The numbers that need not have died under ‘avoidable deaths’ will dwarf those with covid 19 yet we are prioritising this last group over all others when tens of thousands of ‘avoidable deaths’ could be saved each year without crashing the economy.. This in turn will impact for generations on all aspects of life, not the least being far less money to spend on healthcare and presumably a ratcheting up in deaths..

    When you look at those who will die from flu and add to them corona virus deaths and examine ‘excess winter mortality’ of which some of those with covid 19 would presumably otherwise have figured in 2020 I will be surprised if the combined numbers are more than would occur during one of the recent bad flu seasons, which we negotiated without hysteria, panic, shutting down our freedoms and severely impacting on our economy

    by all means take proper care but shutting people up in their homes will cause severe physical and mental health problems and destroy many personal relationships as enforced proximity drives people mad at spouses and children

    Test test and test again and isolate when necessary then test again.


    • Nobody has recorded how many people died [b]from[/b] Covid-19 as opposed to the number who died [b]with[/b] Covid-19

      More than half those who have died had more than one serious pre-existing condition

      Why is common sense the first human attribute to disappear under stress?

    • Julian Flood

      Tony, I’d like to see winter excess mortality highlighted for the last few years. Maybe someone could plot excess deaths against ‘renewable’ energy subsidy.


    • tonyb,
      Thx for this “breathe of fresh air”. I believe that our Government-run NHS adversely effects the political choices made very badly.
      Looking at the figures from Public Health England, the total of all deaths is significantly less than normal expectations – that’s because we’ve had a warm winter with much lower deaths Dec to Feb!

  6. Mr. Lewis, you have an uncanny habit of being right. To put all your chips on red-19 is quite a spin of the wheel. Even if you are right, I doubt the house will let you spend your winnings.

  7. Nic, are you aware of studies done/being done in the Italian town of Vo and in Iceland?

  8. Thank you Nic Lewis!

    Do we know how many of the passengers might have been taking anti-malerials? It is my understanding that several studies are underway to test whether an anti-malerial (Hydro something) may be preventative – so could that affect the results compared to a population which isn’t on anti-malerials?

    Just a thought.

    • I’ve no idea, but I doubt that many (if any) passengers were taking chloroquine as it is, I believe, now not very protective against malaria.

      • It depends. There are regions where resistance has not developed and chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are effective. Mexico, Central America, parts of S.America, Eastern China etc.

  9. Lock downs aren’t sustainable in the longer term,
    and it’s reasonable to try to assess cost and benefit.

    But even if death rates are not extreme, but more akin to a pandemic flu,
    the social distancing still may be advisable in the short term
    for the ‘bend-the-curve’ relief to hospitals.

    A good test of this will be New York City by this weekend.

  10. Nic Lewis, thank you for the essay. I think it’s really good.

  11. Good work, but…
    As far as I can see, data do not distinguish deaths _FROM_ this virus from deaths _WITH_ this virus. Its has been verified descade ago that the presence of the _pathogen_ does not mean that the host has the _disease_. This facts indiciates that non-random tests are actualy underestimating the prevalence of the virus in the general population, not only due to asymptomatic hosts but also due to potential hosts that do not “catch” (meaning “become infected by”) the virus.
    The same reasining must be applied to the higher lethality rate observed in older age classes, where most people carry one or more health conditions, thus the argument that people who are in enough good health to go in a cruise trip are not a representative sample of the general population. As a matter of fact, the Italian health authorities refer that in 88% of the death there was present AT LEAST one co-morbidity (see This factor is artificially incresing the calculated lethality rate due to COVID-19.

  12. Diamond Princess deaths are already at 10, so Nic’s calculation is already obsolete:

    But the more important point, already conceded by the Imperial College authors, is that Covid-19 deaths probably won’t increase the baseline at all, i.e. there will be next to no excess mortality.

    So no matter your calculation, measures are overblown.

    • Re: Imperial College authors concede no baseline increase. Do you have a link handy? I’d be interested to read. Thanks.

    • cite no source for their figure of 10 Diamond Princess deaths. It could be right, but in the absence of a decent source for 2 more deaths circa 24 March I see no reason to change my calculations.

      The reliability of’s figures is called into question by their showing one person miraculously being resurrected from the dead on about 3 March!

      I quite agree about the excess mortality being much lower than the headline fatality rate – that was one of the points that I made in my article, in the last paragraph in particular.

  13. While the Princess cruise ship offers interesting data, it does NOT include the overwhelming of hospital facilities, which is what is and will occur throughout the UK and US as the numbers of infected rise above managable levels. this means a higher death rate, since hospitals will not have enough ventilators, beds and equipment, not to mention staff. Each member of the staff that gets sick may infect coworkers, who then will either have to be quarantined or risk infecting others. Because of the overwhelm factor, I don’t understand how one compares this to normal flu, over which COVI19 is an additional burden to already underfunded and staffed hospitals.

    • As you say, my analysis of Diamond Princess data does not allow for overwhelming of hospital facilities. That means it is an apples-to-apples comparison with the Ferguson et al (Imperial College) IFR and ‘Do nothing’ death rate estiatmes, which likewise do not allow for overwhelming of hospital facilities – as stated in my note 12.

  14. The current global death rate of global confirmed cases is 4.5%. The numbers are driven almost entirely by 1st and 2nd-world countries. If COVID-19 plows through the 3rd world, and only climate can likely slow it down now, that number will likely shoot up.

    DC area:

    Maryland – 423
    DC – 183
    Virginia – 301
    907 – watch this plow into Easter.

    • The problem with extrapolating the case death rate from the confirmed rate in the general population is the global shortage of tests, which in the UK at least are being restricted to those who already have strong symptoms. Unless you are very sick and are strongly suspected to have Covid-19, the NHS won’t waste a test on you. Had a similar criterion for testing been applied on the Diamond Princess, many infections would have been missed, resulting in a highly inflated apparent case death rate.

      • You are spoiling his fun.

      • In hog herd, a virulent and lethal virus will speed into them with a high death rate and slow way down as herd immunity starts denying the virus new hosts.

        So what does it look like?

        Isolation and herd immunity accomplish the same thing, a denial to the virus of a new host. Only China has imposed effective isolation, and the virus behaved there as though they had achieved herd immunity, which is impossible as they isolated anybody even remotely close to Wuhan. They also did a large number of tests. It appears a large percentage of the 1.4 billion people are not immune.

      • stevenreincarnated

        Jennifer Zeng is claiming the reason China has so few cases now is because they are refusing to admit infected people into hospitals. She has a video posted that she claims is such an example. I don’t understand the language being spoken so am forced to take the word of others on what the commotion was about.

      • Seriously, the anti-China crowd will never stop.

      • stevenreincarnated

        I don’t doubt she’s biased but I do doubt China, even if they had eradicated the virus within its borders, could successfully prevent new seeding.

      • Their scientists and doctors were there when the tactics and strategies for combating the next SARS outbreak were developed. It was a collaboration with neighboring scientists, and I believe our CDC was there as well. The reason SK, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, etc. have had successful suppression efforts, right out of the gate, is China detected, identified, and warned the world promptly. The only difference between the Asian countries on this is China was ground zero, and they were not. They can suppress new cases as well as their neighbors.

      • stevenreincarnated

        The situations are completely different. Look at a map. A lot of China’s borders would be underdeveloped and tribal with borders being all but ignored by local residents.

      • Seriously, the anti-China crowd will never stop.

        This is speculative, but humans probably evolved in small clans with a leader. Adherence to the leader was important since individual survival was not likely. This may explain the evolution of the ‘halo effect’ where leaders are projected to be all good or all bad ( the devil horns effect ).

        But this effect is amusing with respect to knee jerk opponents to a certain POTUS. True, this POTUS has blamed China ( in the same way China attempts to blame the US ). But does the knee jerk support of the Holy and good people’s republic include tacit approval of:

        Police State?
        Government Censorship?
        Tiananmen Square?
        The Falon Gong?
        Ethnic cleansing in Tibet?
        Other genocidal tendencies?
        Millions of Uighurs currentlyin concentration camps?
        The crackdown in Hong Kong?

        Reflexive opposition to the orange one does not appear to lead you to admirable bedfellows.

      • @TE: ” But does the knee jerk support of the Holy and good people’s republic include tacit approval of: [8 Xi sins]?”

        I imagine the people you’re complaining about could mirror your sentiments pretty well, Eddie. Does your knee jerk support of the orange one include tacit approval of the many extraordinary things he has done during these past 3.2 years to make America great again?

        “Reflexive opposition to the orange one does not appear to lead you to admirable bedfellows.”

        Eddie, you’re comparing apples and oranges (no pun intended). During 1949-1976 China endured a leader with a seriously Chinese nationalist outlook. Xi needs to be calibrated relative to Mao, just as Trump with his American nationalist outlook needs to be calibrated relative to Mao’s contemporary counterparts Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy (assassinated by Lee H.O., a distant cousin of R.E. Lee), Johnson, Nixon, and Ford, all of whom Trump has declared himself better than.

        “Tiananmen Square? The Falon Gong? Ethnic cleansing in Tibet?
        Other genocidal tendencies?”

        You’re forgetting Xi’s predecessors. Unless you can pin those on Xi himself your list of his eight sins is already down to four.

        “Millions of Uighurs currently in concentration camps?”

        Well, of course, they’re Muslims, aren’t they? Our Supreme Court has denied that Trump’s travel ban is a Muslim travel ban, while Fox News has denied that the children separated from their parents were put in cages.
        Do you agree with those denials?

        “The crackdown in Hong Kong?”

        Wait until it really happens. Ditto for the coming crackdown in America’s sanctuary cities.

        “Admirable bedfellows”. Steady on, Eddie. People might think you’re an American nationalist. ;)

        Mao would be proud of you.

      • @TE: “Tiananmen Square? The Falon Gong? Ethnic cleansing in Tibet? Other genocidal tendencies?”

        You’re blaming those on Xi? That’s half your list! Why isn’t DM stepping up to the plate and accusing you of “hyperventilating”?

      • Xi is not the Chinese government.
        Xi was approved by and serves the committee.
        Even if you limit the time horizon,
        Embracing the communist state means embracing totalitarianism, a police state, and concentration camps.

        We can’t say for sure what’s going on inside remote regions.

        But a million people in concentration camps with crematoria is troubling.×780-1.png

      • @TE: “Xi is not the Chinese government.”

        Excellent point, Eddie. Xi does not go round saying he can do whatever he wants.

  15. Robert Clark

    Here in the USA the only thing that counts is the number of tests taken per day and the percentage of positives. Hopefully the people have killed the virus. I would appreciate it if someone could post that here.

  16. A simpler approach: as of a few moments ago on worldometer:
    Total coronavirus infections: 459,793
    Total coronavirus deaths: 20,823
    4.5 %

    Deaths will be underestimated since they lag infections by 2-4 weeks.
    But infections are also grossly underestimated.
    But remember – measured infections is all we have and what all the modelling is based on.
    So probably not a bad empirical approximation.

    • For US, 859 deaths out of 61808 total cases, 1.4%.

      Paraphrasing JCH from a few days ago, why aggregate across countries?

    • Another approach, is to compare coronavirus deaths with those from seasonal flu:

      If we got proportionally panicked over the seasonal flu, as we have over coronavirus, everybody would have been scared to death, about six weeks ago.

      It’s my well-thought out theory that the measures we are taking to prevent the spread of coronavirus, will save more people from death from the seasonal flu than from the coronavirus. The U.S. death rate from seasonal flu has been running at an average of about 5,000 per month. I predict we will not see 5000 deaths from the coronavirus. Sue me, if I am proven to be wrong.

      • The seasonal flu is seasonal. They means the healthcare system long ago figured out how to have the capacity at hand to deal with it effortlessly in every city and town and county in the USA. Sioux Falls has never had to build an emergency hospital to handle all the new patients.

      • Seasonal flu is seasonal and is likely past it’s peak. You are correct that the healthcare system well-prepared to handle the seasonal flu. Those resources are not seasonal. As the seasonal flu cases decline, those resources will be available for coronavirus patients.

        Serious and critical U.S. cv patients according to reliable source: 1,452

        The current measures to slow the spread of cv will have more of an effect on slowing the seasonal flu, as there are presumably a lot more people with that bug. Closing schools and workplaces all over the place should have a dramatic effect on the seasonal flu going around.

        How many of those estimated 1500 U.S. serious and critical patients who need sophisticated hospital care do they have in little ole Sioux Falls? Or are they projecting?

      • Matthew R Marler

        Don Monfort: the measures we are taking to prevent the spread of coronavirus, will save more people from death from the seasonal flu than from the coronavirus.

        Any thoughts on avoided deaths from automobile accidents?

      • As you very cleverly pointed out, seasonal flu is seasonal. And the healthcare system is well-prepared to deal with it. Those facilities and human resources are not seasonal and will be available to serve cv patients, when the seasonal flu case load declines. The peak may have already come but if not, it won’t be long from now.

        The measures being taken to slow the spread of cv should be having a greater effect on the current seasonal flu, as there a lot more people spreading that around. Closure of schools and work places should have a profound effect on seasonal flu. I am boldly predicting that the deaths from seasonal flu will be surprisingly low following this lockdown. We’ll see.

        According to those who keep track of these things, there are in the U.S., today : 1,452 serious and critical cases of cv.

        You don’t give a source for your Sioux Falls anecdote. I don’t find any news on Sioux Falls needing to build an emergency hospital. I wonder how many of those 1500 U.S. cases that require sophisticated and intensive hospital care are in little ole Sioux Falls, SD? Do they have a current need for a new hospital, or are they projecting?

      • My comments are not appearing. Am I in quarantine?

      • Maybe it was the link. Anyway, it was about JCH’s very clever observation that seasonal flu is seasonal.

        It is seasonal and the usually more than adequate resources that the healthcare system has to deal with seasonal flu will mostly be there for the cv patients, when the flu season is over. It may have peaked already, but if not should be soon.

        The measures being taken to slow the cv should have a greater effect on the seasonal flu, as there are a lot more people spreading that stuff around. Closing schools and workplaces should have a profound effect. Look for hospitalizations and deaths from seasonal flu to be surprisingly low, following the lockdown.

        Worldmeter coronavirus website keeps track of CV stats. That link I won’t post again. Seems to be toxic. They indicate that today there are 1,452 serious, or critical patients cv patients in the U.S.

        JCH mentioned by did not provide source for story on Sioux Falls needing to build and emergency hospital, presumably because of cv. How many of those 1452 cv patients needing sophisticated and intensive hospital care they got in li’l ole Sioux Falls?

      • I expect that to also be very significant lower death toll, Matt. Besides the obvious many fewer miles driven, there is the lack of rush hour frustration and rushing. I am guessing there will be far fewer drunk drivers, speeders and reckless goofballs. They won’t have the benefit of the school-of-fish protection. The cops will nail more of them. Drive by murders and attempted murders? I will call my peeps in Detroit and ask.

      • Don Monfort: Worldmeter coronavirus website keeps track of CV stats. That link I won’t post again. Seems to be toxic.

        How is it toxic?

      • Has never. No city in the United States has ever had to build an emergency hospital to deal with a deluge of seasonal flu victims. Because it’s by and large people who are dying of old age. Been going on forever. Not exceptional. Not a problem for healthcare.

        Not even remotely relevant to the current situation.

        So it’s out of gate, and will likely get a low worse in the coming days.

        13 states have more than 1,000 confirm cases.

        The DC area will soon be over 1,000. A week ago my son’s hospital had zero; today it’s into the hundreds.

        And you folks are still spewing nonsense. Every big city in the US is heading for large numbers in a couple of weeks. Nothing has been done that will slow this down.

        For people to safely attend church on Easter Sunday, around 30,000 active cases a day have to resolve toward zero over the next few days. His spiritual advisor and Franklin Graham have convinced him to throw a Hail Mary to Jesus.

      • You are hyperventilating, JCH. Calm down and respond rationally. You said:

        “Sioux Falls has never had to build an emergency hospital to handle all the new patients.”

        I looked for news of that and nothing. Did you just make that up, to make a scary point? It’s a little difficult to believe that with 1500 serious and critical cv cases in the whole country, mostly in NY NJ and CA, that li’l ole Sioux Falls needs to build a hospital because of cv cases. So what’s your story?

        You seem to be determined to get worked up and spread your panic like a virus:

        “A week ago my son’s hospital had zero; today it’s into the hundreds.”

        What does that mean? Are they hundreds of people who have been actually diagnosed with cv? How many confined in hospital? ICU? How many are mild cases that got sent home? Mild cases typically are 80+% of those diagnosed. Get a grip and give us some useful information.

        New York is getting all the help they need. They will handle it. Do you expect us to be less capable than the Italians, Spanish and Red Chinese, et al?

        “Nothing has been done that will slow this down.” He says,
        from his CNN bubble.

        It’s getting handled. You are just suffering from TDS. The Big Orange Fella knows how to move people and get things done. What’s wrong with a little hopeful symbolic sermonette in this Easter season. The economy gets resurrected on Easter, or thereabouts. Filling the churches is just feel-good hyperbole. It isn’t going to happen. You have to try to get your little minds around the way the Big Orange Fella operates. He is going to be in charge of your well-being for the foreseeable future.

      • I wrote two comments with the link and they did not appear, Matt. I assume they were blocked due to the link, as I didn’t include anything of the type that usually gets me censored.

      • Don Monfort: I wrote two comments with the link and they did not appear, Matt.

        I understand.

        Sometimes you just don’t know why a comment doesn’t get posted. It’s happened to me a few times. Really, “few”, like maybe 3 times.

      • Three times. You are trying to embarrass me, Matt. Yeah, it’s happened to me a lot more than three times. It’s just that some of these characters too often need harsh treatment to straighten them out. Guys like you who have a history of honesty and intelligence, I don’t mess with. On that thing the other day, I have been thinking and I decided that I was mistaken. It was a misunderstanding and I apologize. We good?

      • Don

        See my comment earlier in the thread. The numbers that die from preventable causes dwarfs that from corona virus. ‘Excess winter mortality’ rates dwarfs corona virus. flu deaths dwarfs corona virus numbers.

        corona virus is unlikely to stand out as a significant cause of death when the figures for 2020 are re-examined. Adding corona virus deaths and flu deaths together for 2020 are unlikely to be as bad as flu deaths alone in the worst recent years which in the UK were 2017 and 2014.

        Whilst there differences there are also many similarities but the far greater number of deaths from other causes did not ever warrant this unprecedented restrictions of our freedoms and the impact on our economy.

        which is not to say we shouldn’t practice sensible precautionary measures but we have become hysterical


      • I’m with you, tony. As usual. On the silver lining side, I been making a lot of money. Thanks to the panicky types, like JCH wildly selling hand-over-fist. I used to be in the investment and venture capital game. A client of mine called me after 9-11 and said “I have to do some panic selling.” I laughed so hard I fell out my chair. I told him they blew up a three f—— buildings, we got millions left. I don’t recall his name. It might have been JCH. Or was it some genius Stanford professor.

      • jungletrunks

        Don: “It’s getting handled. You are just suffering from TDS. The Big Orange Fella knows how to move people and get things done. What’s wrong with a little hopeful symbolic sermonette in this Easter season. The economy gets resurrected on Easter, or thereabouts. Filling the churches is just feel-good hyperbole. It isn’t going to happen. You have to try to get your little minds around the way the Big Orange Fella operates.”

        Don, You’re implying devil worshiping here you know? The Lefts marching orders are clear; rank and file followers must go forth and evangelize from the good book of MSM fear mongers, and of course, high priestess Pelosi sermons; to pronounce all talking points with the most pessimistic slant possible. Take for example, Nevada’s governor, Sisolak, who rolled the dice on faith alone, and signed an emergency order barring the use of chloroquine in Nevada. His decision was anointed of Dr. Ihsan Azzam’s, Nevada’s chief medical officer (not licensed to practice medicine in the United States); perhaps part of his rationale was based on a new empirical revelation, revealed only a day earlier from a burning tumbleweed; self prescribed aquarium chloroquine can kill!

        Bottom line, every life is valuable that can be won over to statism, so why gamble ones soul to political damnation from not paying appropriate tithes to the cause.

        The consequences for implying hope over hydroxychloroquine is on Trump’s shoulders, the antichrist! He must pay! Nothing culturally soothing allowed here, they’re all the devils lies. Heil Marx.

      • @DM: “I looked for news of [Sioux Falls emergency hospital] and nothing. Did you just make that up, to make a scary point? ”

        Basing your characteristically unkind remarks on your inability to come up with good search terms again? You can do better, Don. Since JCH said that Sioux Falls did *not* need an emergency hospital, you might have more luck with a search term that *omits* “emergency”, such as

        new hospitals in Sioux Falls

        If you still can’t find any mention of $210 million planned for new hospitals with that search term you may need to use a better search engine such as Google. Or perhaps new glasses.

        “L’il old Sioux Falls”

        You may be underestimating Sioux Falls. Here are its hospital plans as of March 3 of this year.

        Sanford Heart Hospital: A 26,058-square-foot expansion will add 16 patient rooms and supporting spaces. Construction timeline: starting this month, will be completed this year;
        Sanford Harrisburg Clinic: A 16,000-square-foot clinic in the Sioux Falls bedroom community. It will house family medicine, pediatrics and obstetrics, and include walk-in availability and an attached Lewis Drug store. Construction timeline: start this spring, open in about a year;
        Sanford 57th & Veterans Parkway Clinic: A 42,000-square-foot clinic on 57th Street and Veterans Parkway in Sioux Falls, in the city’s fast-growing east side. The clinic will house family medicine, pediatrics, obstetrics, allergy, acute care and include 3-D mammography and an attached Lewis Drug store. Construction timeline: begins in fall 2020 and will be completed in 2021;
        Sanford Van Demark Building expansion: The 33,000-square-foot expansion to the Van Demark Building on Sanford’s main hospital campus in central Sioux Falls will include 23 exam rooms, space for eight additional surgeons and 12 advanced practice providers. Construction timeline: to start in fall 2020 and be completed in spring 2022;
        Sanford Orthopedic Hospital: The 163,000-square-foot building will include 12 operating rooms with space for four additional rooms, a Sanford Home Medical Equipment center and access to the orthopedic walk-in clinic. Construction timeline: Work will start in the summer of 2021 and open in 2023.

      • VP – thanks.

      • jungletrunks

        I guess JCH and VP aren’t aware of rebuilding and expansion efforts on the heels of destructive tornado activity in Sioux Falls, in 2019.

        Regardless; do you guys actually believe a 26,058-square-foot expansion facility was thrown together the last couple months, with a construction timeline starting this month, and to be completed this year since the advent of COVID-19? Such a sad display.

      • jungletrunks

        completion was typo, though irrelevant. They aren’t projecting anything COVID-19 from this buildout of facilities.

      • Thanks for clarifying that for myself and JCH, doc. He could have spoken up for himself, but he seems to be too feverish to communicate clearly. Maybe you could go through his other recent comments and translate them for us. Is he really taking the side of the Wuhan Bat Soup Virus, because feverish TDS?

        I thought he was implying that li’l ole Sioux Falls currently needed to build an emergency hospital, “to handle all the new patients” like the Red Chinese had to do in Wuhan, after they initially tried to suppress awareness of the Wuhan Bat Soup Virus, until it spread to the point that it threatened to wipe everybody out, and bring down the Red Chinese Commie Thugocracy. My mistake. I apologize to JCH and hope he recovers soon.

        The rest of your comment is just BS. Yes, we all have a lot of time on our hands, but please don’t subject us to that kind of useless rambling, again. I only kept reading in deference to you former lucidity. Please stay safe. I really like you.

      • “I guess JCH and VP aren’t aware of rebuilding and expansion efforts on the heels of destructive tornado activity in Sioux Falls, in 2019.”

        What does that have to do with anything? The tornado merely broke 338 windows in the Avera Heart Hospital that had to be boarded up and later repaired. Are you suggesting that the tornado damage to that hospital cost $210 million? That would come to $620,000 a window.

        “Such a sad display.”

        Most normal people have grown out of their “mean boys and girls” phase by the time they’re out of middle school.

        “They aren’t projecting anything COVID-19 from this buildout of facilities.”

        No one but you has talked about any such projection. Are you making up these straw men as a pretext to hone your mean-speak skills?

        What JCH was pointing out was that Sioux Falls didn’t have to plan for COVID-19 exhausting their hospital beds thanks to their extensive hospital expansion plans.

      • Again you blooming little flowers, Sioux Falls has never had to build a field hospital to handle the seasonal flu caseload, nor has Denver, Omaha, Nashville, Little Rock, Oklahoma City, Topeka, St. Louis. Good gawd. If it will waste all your time looking at their construction budgets, I’ll list every hospital in America. Because none have ever had to build a field hospital to handle the seasonal flu. JFC. It’s seasonal. Before that, it was called Grandma or Grandpa’s time.

        I mentioned Sioux falls because it’s an ice cube. They have this gigantic cold death rate there every time there’s a blizzard. They drink way to much beer to ever figure it out Global Warming is going save thousands of Sioux Fallzians.

        It has been built into the capacity since early in the early 20th century.

        New York has a hospital ship and one improvised facility, and I believe they are asking for 3 more.

        Hospitals all over the nation have been cancelling elective surgeries to free up ICU beds for COVID-19. I would venture that no hospital has ever had too do that for seasonal flu either.

      • Don Monfort: Guys like you who have a history of honesty and intelligence, I don’t mess with. On that thing the other day, I have been thinking and I decided that I was mistaken. It was a misunderstanding and I apologize.

        Thank you.

      • He had you bamboozled too, doc. You said:

        “What JCH was pointing out was that Sioux Falls didn’t have to plan for COVID-19 exhausting their hospital beds thanks to their extensive hospital expansion plans.”

        JCH belatedly at long last after much wondering wtf from his readers claims that, in his fevered mind he meant:

        “Again you blooming little flowers, Sioux Falls has never had to build a field hospital to handle the seasonal flu caseload, nor has Denver, Omaha, Nashville, Little Rock, Oklahoma City, Topeka, St. Louis. Good gawd.”

        OK, I am sure nobody ever entertained the thought that Sioux Falls had to ever build, what he now calls a field hospital, to handle the seasonal flu case load. That’s trivial. We wish he wouldn’t do that.

        Do you think that Sioux Falls extensive expansion plans will help them, if a bunch of freedom loving wild-and-crazy New York party hounds move into town this weekend spreading good fun and bad virus? When do those facilities come on line? Next week, hopefully?

        But thanks for attempting to set us straight on what the feverish JCH said, about whatever. Better luck, next time

      • @DM: There’s a certain skill to making the obvious sound complicated, Don. You seem to have it down to a fine art.

      • Oh, and Don –

        > I predict we will not see 5000 deaths from the coronavirus.

        What time period did that prediction apply to? Per month? If so, for what months?

        I was under the impression you meant in total. If do, if suggest your credibility is not stellar.

      • I took out one word. Let’s see if this works.

        Your comment is awaiting moderation.
        That’s looks like a lame attempt at distraction, doc. Why don’t you just admit that you misinterpreted JCH’s statement, just as I did. Me being the bigger man, I have already admitted my honest mistake and apologized. We expect better from you, doc.

      • > Get back to us on November 3, after judgement of the people is rendered.

        Again and again you return to this as your focus. You’re on a team, rooting for some drone-like fantasy of a big daddy who’s fighting for you to address a sense of greivsnce.

        Lying about testing? Who cares? Trumo hates James Acosta and that’s what I care about because it means my team will win. Its sad to see peoole placing such paramount value on team loyalty and cultish fealty. Such behaviors isn’t unique to Trump supporters, not by any means. Similar behavior on the other side mught be the operative rationalization -but I’m challenging you to be better than that. My life might actually depend on it.

        Real mistakes were made. Mistakes we made with real consequences. Trump giving himself a 10 didn’t kill people per se, but his strict policy of denying errors and attacking people who talk about mistakes means he isn’t equipped to see solve the problems. You know this from your military experiences. That means the only hope for addressing those problems is if the people who might vote for him convince him that solving those problems is in his own best political interest.

        Boasting that his reelection is vindication, and reveling that it will upset your political opponents, is a pathetic priority when the issues at hand are of real consequence. You act as if reelection is sone kind of proof of his competence. Was that your thinking when Obama won reelection?

        I have no doubt other presidents would have made errors – for whatever reasons. I have no way to calculate the # of avoidable deaths attributable to his errors and his obsessive focus on his political fortunes. But that doesn’t change the simple observation that he’s looking at this as a huge PR opportunity, and that he won’t correct for errors if people like YOU don’t step up to show him there’s a PR advantage for him haning this better.

        I know you see it Don. You’re not fooling me. And I think you’re up to acknowledging that what’s at issue here is actually something that rises above banal partisan politics.

    • It also makes little sense to aggregate across age groups, and variables which as population density, ventilator access, ICU beds per capita, etc..

      • I am not sure what you are getting at there, Josh. But the “makes little sense” part rings a bell. Cruise ships are not going to give us reliable information about how this virus makes it’s way in the real world. Analyzing various individual countries same story. If you look at and believe the reported stats, Red China has done a lot better job of containment than Spain, Italy, New York City etc. Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan despite their close proximity and extensive interaction with Red China, way better than the rest. U.S. under the leadership of the Big Orange Fella will do just great. Right, Josh?

      • Thanks Don. I tend to agree with Trump that the cure is worse than the original disease which will raise huge questions for the survival of the West. I see you are also replying to Joshua who I seem to remember was in Italy a couple of years ago.

        I love Italy myself but he will testify they are utterly different to many other nations in terms of how they live in multi generational groups, often in very small apartments and how tactile they are and how a first world medical system has over the years managed to keep so many old people alive who suffer numerous severe ailments

        All reasons that will likely make their death rate very high.


      • Don –

        The prevalence among older people is essentially independent from the prevalence in younger people. A per capita rate is effectively useless.

      • And yes, trying to extrapolate from one country estimate prevalence in another could be pretty useless also. It would depend on a lot of variables: is the population density similar, how about health habits, how about access to healthcare, or baseline health status, or nutritional status, etc, etc. Comparing countries where those values were similar would be of use. It isn’t the country per se that’s relevant.

        At any rate – it’s hard for me to think of a sample that would be LESS representative than people on a cruise.


        I have little faith that Trump’s administration can get its act together. Particularly when his singular focus is on turning COVID 19 into a campaign rally. “Everyone who wants a test gets a test” is just another lie. The problem is that with something like this, as opposed to crowd sizes, it actually matters. The failures in testing aren’t completely related to his lying, but as long as his toadies don’t care about his lying the situation will be slower to improve.

      • Tony –

        I actually lived in Bergamo for a year (in Citta Alta) . What’s happening there is tragic

        It’s interesting to see many folks in the “skept-o-sphere,” who have been sailing under the flag of “But, the uncertainties” for years, jumping on the cure is worse line of reasoning, ignoring uncertainties, and without evidence-based backup for their pet theories.

      • February 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA…”
        February 26: “It’s going very substantially down, not up… is going to be down to zero.”
        February 27: “It’s going to disappear one day, it’s like a miracle.”
        March 6: “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it… Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability…”

      • Joshua

        I love Bergamo and enjoy the two funiculars up to the very top of this very interesting town.

        We also use the airport to get to Lovere on the lake and Bormio in the mountains and hope we will be able to get there again in the Autumn and help their tourist industry.


      • It’s sad that you think the POTUS is more concerned with his campaign than the health and safety of the American people. Must make you feel sick just about all the time. Were you one of the mob of intellectually and morally superior left loons, who called the POTUS racist and xenophobic for ending flights from Red China, the source of the scourge? I have some little respect for you and I hope you aren’t so far gone that you are among those rooting for the virus against your president.

      • It’s not a pet theory that if folks don’t go to work for a long time the economy will stop being the economy. But if the POTUS wants to get the country functioning again at the right time, then the left loon resistance are stuck with taking the opposite position. It’s going to end in a landslide for the Big Orange Fella, on November 3. Let the crying begin, early.

      • > I have some little respect for you and I hope you aren’t so far gone that you are among those rooting for the virus against your president.

        I’m “high risk,” Don. Hypertrophic cardiiopathy. It’s sad that you think I value hurting Trump more than I value my own life and the lives of people i love. What makes you think in such a disturbing way?

        There is little doubt he is laser focused on his own political health. He gave it up, for anyone too stupid to know it beforehand, when he talked about not wanting the cruise numbers on the record. It’s sad that toadies are so indoctrinated into his cult that they don’t think he should be made accountable.

        His lies about how anyone who wants to get tested can get tested is just more evidence that he cares about his polls more than about the truth. Telling the truth, and facing the real problems, is key to attacking this problem. Some of his lies are consequential. And your bating about “red China” is beyond pathetic. Talk to Trump about it, maybe he’ll talk to his friend Xi to indoctrinate him also.

      • > It’s not a pet theory that if folks don’t go to work for a long time the economy will stop being the economy.

        Its a pet theory because you have no real idea of the differential economic impact of the shutdown vs. no shutdown. Huge numbers dying has a huge economic impact. Patchwork shutdowns won’t work. Take some anti-cult meds, Don

        > It’s going to end in a landslide for the Big Orange Fella, on November 3.

        So now we see why you don’t care about his pandering for votes at the expense of lives.

      • You claim that you have your TDS under control, but show no indications that your self-assessment is correct. Realistic self-awareness is not what you are known for around here, Josh. Just ask anybody. You are very bitter and wrong. Get out of the CNN, MSLSD fake news bubble. You will be much happier. The Big Orange Fella is going to be in charge for a long time. Don’t keep punishing yourself. Hey, your check is practically in the mail.

      • C’mon Don –

        Stop playing games. Anyone with an ounce of common sense can see Trump’s obsession with his political status, and that his obsession drives his decisions and strategies. I know you see it, too. He’s a politician just like any other. It’s silly to try to pretend like he’s some noble truth-speaker. He cares about his political viability like any politician. Pretending otherwise doesn’t fool me or anyone else. It’s what drove his downplaying of the severity if the virus. It’s what drives his constant lying about the effectiveness of his administration’s response. It’s as plain as day. It’s unavoidably obvious. His daily briefing is nothing other than a PR campaign with his nodding backdrop of bobble head dolls. I know you see it, Don. It’s not a matter of TDS, it’s a matter of not being a cult member. I djnt think you’re cult member, Don, so your little game isn’t fooling me. Don’t be a cult member.

        Look at how he brags about the absolute numbers of the testing done here – while he ignores the per capita rates. Did you watch his dog and pony show where he trotted out all those corporate sycophants? You know, about all those tests in Walmart parking lots and at CVS, and Walgreen, and the Google website where we could all get triaged for testing. How’s that working out?

        Please, just stop with the silliness. His game is too flat out obvious to fool even a toady like you. This is a serious matter.

        I don’t think that Trump is singularly responsible for the raft of errors in this administration’s response. This is a very tough problem. I think other administrations could have likely done better – but I don’t think any would have had no mistakes. Not close.

        The problem here is the dishonesty. You can’t correct the mistakes if you don’t admit their existence. You were in the military, right? Then you understand this.

        It’s a clear faure of leadership and it contributes to the poorer outcomes here relative to other countries. It’s truly a shame in such a rich country. I Iive 1.5 hours from NYC. At this point I don’t care about Trump’s fake tan – I care about the lack of testing, and how it has basically led to a total abandonment of contact tracing. I care about the lack of ventilators in MY community as with my underlying condition I might need one should I get sick. Medications I take would preclude chloroquine and z-pack.

        I don’t deny that TDS exists. Of course it ties, just as did ODS. But the sychophancy here has consequences. You should think about that.

        But at least we’re all socialists now, eh?

      • @Joshua: “But the sychophancy here has consequences.”

        There are other spellings. My favorite is sickophancy.

      • Whatever. Get back to us on November 3, after judgement of the people is rendered. Big Orange Fella will crush, whichever old senile geezer the Dems put up for the slaughter. Are you for the more senile one, or the old crotchety comrade? I bet large that you are a berniebot. Eh? Cheer up, your Trump check is practically in the mail.

  17. Nick,

    How do you get this in front of the science advisors advising the decision makers in the UK and the US?

    Maybe Judith can make some contacts with Tucker Carlson and Mark Steyn (Fox News) and the Wall Street Journal.

  18. Ireneusz Palmowski

    “The pace of our initial progress in COVID-19 is attributable to the capability of our plant-based platform, which is able to produce vaccine and antibody solutions to counteract this global public health threat. The ability to produce a candidate vaccine within 20 days after obtaining the gene is a critical differentiator for our proven technology. This technology enables scale-up at unprecedented speed to potentially combat COVID-19,” said Dr. Bruce Clark, CEO of Medicago.

  19. The evolutionary biologists Bret Weinstein and Heather Grayling pointed out in a YouTube podcast yesterday that an important piece of the puzzle we’re missing is antibody testing (i.e. indicating that a subject was infected, but overcame the infection themselves). As far as you know, was this test also performed on the Diamond Princess passengers/crew? Perhaps 45 days isn’t long enough to test negative for Cov19 despite having been infected, but it would be useful data to have.

    However imperfect the Diamond Princess cohort, we should certainly be studying the sh!t out of this people. Do we know, for instance, who patient zero was, when they themselves were likely to have been infected, and from this derive a timeline for the spread of the disease in its various stages among the population.

    Have you picked up on the very recent (albeit non peer-reviewed) research published by the Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group at Oxford that suggests as much as 50% of the UK population may already have or had Covid-19? This is a modelling study, but the assumptions are not entirely implausible, especially concerning the likely date of the introduction of the virus into the UK (as long as a month before currently assumed.) The group appears to be trying to organise some random antibody tests to check their model – with results expected in a week or so.

  20. As the issue from an epidemiological point of view is: how many people already have or have had the infection, the best way to know is to test a large sample of the population with specific antibodies to COVID-19. Then the denominator would be known and all subsequent statistics would have some validity. Now, in all of this data uncertainty, a rapid antibody test can be used, the prevalence of those exposed can be determined, a population can be described, a region/location can be quantified, and..such a test will help trace the progression of the infection. All this would then help determine if relaxing some restrictions in some areas is a good idea, and, if such restrictions are implemented, then one can trace whether or not to reverse any restrictions relaxations decisions going forward.

    The scientific method is a nightmare for politicians because their ear is always tuned to the public relations of their actions/utterances.

  21. Like many here I’m following the covid19
    numbers at the Worldometer site.

    It is clear that there are significant discrepancies between countries in the general trends of both new infections and deaths. In some countries they move in a smooth and credible manner, in others not.

    My hunch – and it is only a hunch – is that you can take a small number of countries whose date collection and virus testing systems seem to be both functional and consistent day to day. These countries’ data give a reasonably accurate approximate picture of what is going on in all countries which started shutdowns about the same time. These countries are:

  22. Heard today that France is not counting home deaths and nursing home deaths; only hospital deaths. Probably not a big number.

    • jch

      Is that a real report or fake news? Have you a reference.

      if you remember back to the last big European heatwave it was reckoned to have caused many more deaths than it need to because of the huge number of old people in homes left by their families when they went on hollday. so the numbers from this-as with Spain-could be significant.


    • Rumor on twitter.

      • Ah. so as reliable as alarmist studies on climate change

      • jungletrunks

        So you tell Tony that he’s lost after admitting that you posted a rumor, then prove his point; forgoing any attempt to prove your previous propagandistic twitter story and instead posting on an entirely different unreliable story, a headline describing “chloroquine no better than regular coronavirus care”. There’s no narrative behind the headline you link to, it’s a dead end. If one digs deeper about the story they find a small Chinese trial that doesn’t provide much detail at all, it roughly describes unspectacular outcomes for chloroquine on a few patients, that’s it. This is enough for you to toss aside a peer reviewed study from world renowned infectious disease expert, Didier Raoult, PhD., and instead run with a continuing affectionate embrace of Chinese propaganda stewardship. You’re disgraceful.

      • jungletrunks

        China Is Censoring Coronavirus Stories. These Citizens Are Fighting Back. | NYT News

      • You are also lost.

      • JCH just walks away from his little gratuitous droppings, without even bothering to kick a little dirt on them. And he claims to be unhappy with the level of discourse and the etiquette here at Dr. Curry’s house.

  23. Nic,

    I don’t know if you know this, but Neil Ferguson was doing the (lead?) modeling under Roy Anderson during the FMD 2001 crisis. If I recall Anderson may have referred to this as Neil ‘s baptism of fire. Apparently he passed with flying colors and was highly regarded by politicians as a result.
    In addition Sir David King then newly made Chief Scientist, claimed that the great success of the modeling team in helping manage the FMD crisis, made his reputation (with the politicians) as Chief Scientist.

    Here is the Veterinarian’s post audit of the modeling issues

    Use and abuse of mathematical models:
    an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth
    disease epidemic in the United Kingdom
    R.P. Kitching (1), M.V. Thrusfield (2) & N.M. Taylor

    Carnage from a computer

  24. What might be the reason for downgrading the status of Covid-19 in UK?

    Status of COVID-19
    “As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.”

    “The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.
    The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.”

  25. COVID19 has been traced to a starving polar bear, floating on a block of ice off the coast of Iceland, stranded by– Global Warming… that was caused by too many Americans taking a hot shower in the morning.

  26. Steven Mosher

    Ugg not another person using Diamond princess
    Use the data from Korea.

    Challenge. below I list the case in Korea by Age group
    Predict the fatalities using your Approach.
    No cheating allowed
    Age group left, cases on the right
    Predict deaths

    80+ 406 cases,
    70-79 : 611
    60-69: 1154
    50-59: 1724
    40-49: 1246
    30-39: 943

    • Wow. I guessed at that, but first time to see actual numbers.


      So better, but not by the degree people think.

      • So, instead of 1.2 million, what should we expect?

      • It’s novel. No precedent. Untold story. Live the next chapter: Easter. Could be the last one. Miracle. If not, summer, fall, vaccine: yes or no, winter, spring.

      • JCH : It’s novel. No precedent. Untold story. Live the next chapter: Easter. Could be the last one. Miracle. If not, summer, fall, vaccine: yes or no, winter, spring.

        So the Ferguson et al simulation was worthless?

      • SARS-CoV killed 10% of confirmed cases; MERS-CoV killed 34% of confirmed cases. So far, this one has killed 4.5% of confirmed cases.

        Typically this would sober people up, but it has instead made them drunk.

    • On CNBC there was video of ‘scenes of coronavirus’ which included a shot of a sign outside one of the drive up testing sites which read:


      What we need is a broad randomized sample of the exposed general population, which might never have been symptomatic.

    • Of note,
      the South Korea Case Fatality Rate appears to be,
      based on biased sampling, about the same as that of the US.

    • You don’t claim that this is for a cohort all of whom were tested for COVID-19 whether or not they showed any symptons, and I very much doubt that it was. That being the case, one can’t calculate the tCFR and hence estimate the IFR, unlike with the Diamond Princess data.

  27. Pingback: COVID-19: Up to date knowledge signifies that UK modelling massively overestimates the anticipated loss of life charges from an infection – All My Daily News

  28. CCCCC (Catastrophic Climate Change Cultist cr@p) is dead in the water. It’s all over bar the shouting by what will become a shrinking group akin to flat-earthers, Moon-landing-never-happened-believers and evolution deniers.

  29. Ireneusz Palmowski

    It is enough to produce a protein that is in the envelope of the virus so that the human body produces antibodies. Such a vaccine is possible in a shorter time.

    • Yes it is, but that is also the part of the virus that tends to mutate the fastest.

      That is why you need new flu vaccines every year.

  30. Ireneusz Palmowski

    I think that antiviral drug slow down the virus when given at the first symptoms, e.g. loss of sense of smell and taste. Five days after the symptoms may no longer be effective.
    Jo Nova
    March 26, 2020 at 1:59 pm · Reply
    Could be effective if given to all close contacts, but this is tough regarding medical approval since they are not even sick yet.

    But this would potentially reduce the rate of spread if it works.

  31. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The same day that New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced the initiation of a clinical trial using blood plasma from patients who have recovered from COVID-19, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced wider support for the practice.

    The FDA said Tuesday that it will allow physicians to use what is referred to as convalescent plasma collected from recovered COVID-19 patients in an attempt to treat patients who are critically ill from the virus that was declared a pandemic. The idea is that the plasma, which contains antibodies against the virus, will be administered into patients who are critically ill. In a guidance announced Tuesday, the FDA said it is possible that the treatment could be effective against the infection, although there is scant evidence to support that as of now. The use of convalescent plasma has been studied in outbreaks of other respiratory infections, including the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, 2003 SARS-CoV-1 epidemic, and the 2012 MERS-CoV epidemic.

  32. Of course with such a low death rate, to match the current situation in many european countries and with china, many many more than reported should be infected already. About ten times more.
    This will not solve the issue of overloaded hospitals (the mortality is still too high, and even with more infected it’s far from enough to exhaust potential new hosts) but it raise doubts on the possible effectiveness of confinement, and on actual R0. With low death rates, low symptoms and many case well distributed already, confinement will not really slow down transmition much.
    It raise doubts about China too : they report a too high death rate but have managed to control the propagation using confinement… Strange, given that confinement should not work that well (in europe it seems indeed not to work that well)
    SKorea also report too high a death rate but here it’s less easy to believe they missed a large fraction of the infected and lie about controlling the epidemy/low rate of new cases…. All in all, i have difficulties reconciling diamond princess data with other data, even allowing for errors and governement lies. Until large scale antibody test i think it’s not possible to know death rate and number of infected, extrapolation of DP numbers to all countries seems wrong.

  33. UK-Weather Lass-In-Earnest

    Accurate records are so very valuable to assist and enable future generations to prepare for their uglier seasonal ‘flu episodes. I had hoped that comprehensive testing would take place once covid-19 was confirmed.

    Have our world leaders missed a golden opportunity to prove how important it is to have common and proven testing processes in place well before outbreaks of this kind since that is a sure way to know that our live monitoring is giving accurate feedback?

    • They have proven how you need to think clearly and avoid the mass hysteria that has been ramped up when making decisions. Trusting Imperial College was the first mistake as they have form with their wild forecasts

  34. nobodysknowledge

    Some people from Diamond Princess is currently dying. 15 critical or serious cases. So the number of deaths is clearly wrong. It can be closer to 20. Time will show.
    The conditions of health care in a country is a very important factor. In Italy and Spain over 10% of known infected cases are health care workers. What is now known of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections, the health care system will be a an imprtant part of the spreading of the virus. Hospitals have been deathcamps.
    We still know to little to say anything about deaths. We don`t know how many is infected. I wonder if more helpful knowledge can come from Iceland than from Diamond Princess.

    • nobodysknowledge

      I have seen somewhere that the best estimate of deaths from serious/critical cases is 40%, If I remember right. Then Diamond Princess deaths will be 16.

    • nobodysknowledge

      Italy: “About 5,760 health care workers have been infected by the virus, according to figures released Tuesday by an Italian research institute.”
      Spain: “On Wednesday, the number of medical personnel infected was nearly 6,500 nationally, health authorities said, representing 13.6% of the country’s 47,600 total cases and about 1% of the health system’s workforce.”
      And these numbers can be just the tip of the iceberg.

    • More important than the state of health services seems to be the health of the patients before they are infected with the virus. There is an Italian report from the National Health Institute ISS; which includes these conclusions:

      Table 1 presents the most common pre-existing chronic pathologies (diagnosed before contracting the infection) in deceased patients. This figure was obtained in 355/2003 deaths (17.7% of the overall sample). The average number of pathologies observed in this population is 2.7 (median 2, Standard Deviation 1.6). Overall, 3 patients (0.8% of the sample) had 0 pathologies, 89 (25.1%) had 1 pathology, 91 had 2 pathologies (25.6%) and 172 (48.5%) had 3 or more pathologies.

      Table 1. Most common diseases observed in patients who died as a result of COVID-2019 infection

      Ischemic heart disease
      Atrial fibrillation Stroke
      High blood pressure
      Diabetes mellitus
      Cancer active in the last 5 years
      Chronic liver disease
      Chronic renal failure

      8. Deaths under the age of 50
      To date (17 March), 17 COVID-19 positive patients have died under the age of 50. In particular, 5 of these had fewer than 40 and were all male people aged between 31 and 39 with serious pre-existing pathologies (cardiovascular, renal, psychiatric pathologies, diabetes, obesity).

    • nobodysknowledge

      “What is now known of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections, the health care system will be a an important part of the spreading of the virus.”
      In addition there is a postsymptomatic spread of viruses, from health workers who has bean declared free from illness. There have been some cases in NY where health care workers have not been allowed to work because they have tested positive for weeks after the symptoms went away. Without testing these persons would have been back in work.

    • If so, then all the death rate estimates in Verity et al, which are used in the Ferguson et al Imperial College model that informs UK policy decisions, must be wrong as well, as they are based on the same time-from-infection-to-death probability distribution that I used.I

  35. nobodysknowledge

    Nic. “As at 21 March the Verity et al. model estimates that 96% of the eventual deaths should have occurred, so we can scale up to 100%, giving an estimated ultimate death toll of 8.34, allocated as to 3.58 to the 70-79 age group and 4.77 to the 80+ age group.”
    It is here you clarely have gone wrong. Verity et al had not the knowledge of how the virus is killing. It is a slow killer. Ferguson neither had this knowledge. It is a slow killer, and the scientific society is slowly learning.
    It would be nice if you gave a new analysis based on more real numbers.

    • I have updated the analysis for two deaths that occurred after I wrote it.

      Your figure for 16 people from the Diamond Princess still being seriously ill is out of date. I think there are currently no more than 11. But I agree that the Verity probablility distribution for the delay between testing positive and dying looks as if it may be biased towards too short a period.

  36. nobodysknowledge

    Faroe islands has the most infected population in the world, statistics says. 1473 cases pr million. Italy has 628 cases pr million. Faroe islands is the most tested population in the world. 33000 tests pr million. It is quite obvious that infected cases is a function of testing. The numbers from Iceland is a confirmation of that. And it shows a very large underestimation of infections all over the world. I think the number of infected people all over Europe (and USA) can be close to Faraoe islands, about 1500 cases pr million. It would be 10s of million infected people all over the world. If we could find out of this, we could say something of the mortality rate.

    • nobodysknowledge

      Well, numbers change really fast. The number of 1473 infected cases pr million was pr 20th March. Now, 26th March it has doubled to 2865 infected pr million in Faroe Islands. Death rate stiil zero.

    • The null hypothesis should actually be that this virus will infect most people in the population but that the death rates in China and Korea are probably sane estimates of death rates with social distancing of sick people.

      There is nothing new about latent infection of viruses being asymptomatic against vast populations: it is how herd immunity develops.

      Why anyone would assume different is a puzzle to me. It is not as if we do not already have about 20 examples of this from the virology databaee.

  37. UK-Weather Lass-In-Earnest

    As someone who has been calm and optimistic throughout the covid-19 spread I feel the UK lock down has brought everyone outside the groups of essential and key workers, down to the same level and set limits to activities which should/could have been introduced much earlier had policy makers been more honest with themselves about their serial neglect of the NHS generally and emergency provision in particular. It was well known that A&E hospital departments were struggling to cope more than three years ago and so policy makers have no place to hide.

    Policy makers had weeks to ready the service for whatever the virus would bring with it to the UK, but, being on the defensive, simply chose ill thought through options that would allow an inadequate health workforce and environment to have the best chance of coping. Those policy makers were either guilty of not protecting their NHS workforce adequately or being stupid enough to believe they might get away with not making adequate provision. A comprehensive testing regime should have been high on their list of requirements in the advent of any invasive corona influenza virus.

    Time will tell if they have made matters worse through their appalling lack of action from early January onwards but it seems to me they could have saved a lot of hardship, grieving, and unemployment by investing money when it was appropriate to do so.

    The problem with short term politics and opportunism is that nobody is looking far enough ahead. We need much clearer thinkers for leaders.

    • Uk weather lass

      Would you have been prepared to have been locked down from Early January and have all our freedoms curtailed and the economy shut down? If so on what evidence would you have based this belief of the need for unprecedented action? If not early January then from what date?

      Can I also ask you a direct question. How many people do you believe will die in the UK directly through Covid 19 in 2020 and what is your rationale for the number you select?

      I think where we might agree, is on this baffling run down of ordinary hospital beds when the population had been allowed to surge and the demographic was such that they would need more care.

      as far as I am aware these decisions were made by health professionals and it was only very recently that I attended a meeting about our local hospital. It was quite clear the health chiefs wanted to close it as they believed more modern and superior methods would make up the shortfall.

      They would not see reason but played the ‘I know best’ card. They were not politicians who had actually joined the campaign to save the hospital. Don’t forget this is an emotive subject and by elections have been won by those determined not to see their hospital closed down



      • One of the most authoritative and balanced accounts I’ve heard of why the British and American governments have acted how they have comes from Prof. Nicholas Jewell (Chair of Biostatistics and Epidemiology at the London School of Medicine and Tropical Medicine and Professor of the Graduate School (Biostatistics and Statistics) at the University of California, Berkeley).

        The initial responses were heavily influenced by the work of the modelling group at Imperial College, London. The group now appears to have done an about face, and the governments have also quite sensibly been consulting much more widely.

        “Would you have been prepared to have been locked down from Early January and have all our freedoms curtailed and the economy shut down?”

        The mainstream media would certainly not have been happy had this happened and would likely have spun it as evidence that “Boris is the new Hitler,” of which many are already convinced.

        Nicholas Jewell’s views can be heard on YouTube here: –

        He discusses Imperial College at around the 26 minute mark.

    • I think the UK government is probably being honest when it says it is and has been following scientific advice. I believe the original advice was to take a gradualist approach in the expectation that a level of herd immunity would build before more draconian controls needed to be introduced, with the overall result being to minimise harm. Almost everyone is driving blind (or at least with extremely restricted vision) in this crisis, and I certainly wouldn’t like to be the one making the decisions.

      To be honest, I think most of the blame for any failures to prepare adequately probably rests with bureaucrats and administrators, rather than politicians (I say this from extensive experience of working with the public sector up to senior civil service level – they are lovey people, but they don’t know the meaning of the word ‘urgent’).

  38. The mortality rate is not the problem with CV19.

    The problem is the ICU crush.

    ICU care is not something people understand, nor want to contemplate.
    But it’s important to acknowledge that a certain amount, not all, but a certain amount, is futile, very expensive, and displaces the care for cases in which care is not futile.

    These are moral issues involving multiple conflicting values.

    Because these are values, we must decide this care individually.

    But one cannot wait until the moment to decide.
    If one should require intubation, one is typically unconscious or otherwise unable to decide. So one needs an advance directive.

    One guide to decide this may by this paper:

  39. Ireneusz Palmowski

    New York Governor Cuomo says:

    Peak number of cases is still 2 to 3 weeks away in New York
    “We’ve procured about 7,000 ventilators. We need, as a minimum, other 30,000 ventilators. This is a critical and desperate need for ventilators [..] We need them in 14 days. Fema is sending 400 ventilators only. Federal action is needed to address this now through the Federal Defense Production Act”
    “The numbers are higher in New York because it started here first, it has a lot of international travelers and has high density, but you will see this in cities all across the country, and in suburban communities. Where we are today, you’ll be in 4 weeks or 6 weeks.
    Probably “hundreds of thousands of people” have already had Covid-19, didn’t know they had it, and recovered. Should be tested for antibodies so they could go back to work and keep the economy going.

  40. It appears that the mortality rate in England and Wales has been remarkably low since January, maybe due to people avoiding hospitals and catching something deadly. Typically 300,000 patients a year in England acquire a healthcare‑associated infection as a result of care within the NHS.

    • Ulric

      Very interesting stat.

      Ironically in 2020 fewer people will likely die of flu -by far the greatest source of winter deaths-due to the month long reluctance to go to meetings or even meet with friends.

      Car accidents will also be down as will be serious crimes.

      There are some 140,000 ‘preventable deaths’ each year in the UK from a total of 600,000 annual deaths, which includes everything from car accidents, obesity, dying from cold etc . So your 300,000 patients -who might catch everything from Mrsa to noravirus- are probably a significant segment of that 140,000 figure.


      • TonyB

        The winter data shows that 2019/20 deaths are already way down on 2016/17 and 2017/18 and that was all before the self-isolating took hold.

        We are not in an epidemic at all, fewer people have died in 2020.

        Go tell that to the doomsters in the media.

        It is official Government statistics found in a weekly bulletin (the latest one covers weeks 1-12 of 2020).

      • UK-Weather Lass-In-Earnest

        The more I read up on coronavirus ‘flu types the more doubt I feel about the way the 2020 episode has been handled. Has the panic really been necessary and would better results have been achieved via a calmer and cool headed approach? Unfortunately we will never know.

      • Uk weather lass.

        I think you know my views on that subject. I think this is a hysterical over reaction brought about by the MSM, especially the doom ridden BBC, social media whipping everyone up, a population -a small proportion of who stockpiled everything- who mostly did the obvious thing of transferring sensible amounts of stock from supermarket to their own shelves-thereby creating a further sense of panic as shelves emptied which the media fed upon.

        Combine that with an overarching reliance on scientists who as is often with models did not take into account the wildly different circumstances of places like Italy and the UK..

        I hate to think what locking everybody up in their own houses will do to the infection rate which is why I thought the previous laissez faire policy to be reasonable as you cant lock everyone up for weeks or months without repercussions.

        The Imperial college has form with past bad predictions.


      • Hi Tony

        I’ve read a few stories about males in some countries being affected more and having higher death rates than females. I have no ideas why this might be and wondered if you had seen any such stories or read about theories why this might be.

      • ceresco

        I think there are two key elements. The first is that for whatever reason women seem to be longer lived. In crude terms a woman of 80 is likely to be fitter and have a ‘younger’ metabolism than a man of 80.

        The biggest factors I suspect are work patterns and smoking.

        Men in Italy and China of a certain age are more likely to have worked in heavy industry with all that implies in terms of pollution and exposure to unpleasant chemicals and processes..

        Let us not forget that until relatively recently many women would have worked at home and in more recent times when going out to work became the norm, they would have been less likely to have been in heavy industry

        We can combine heavy smoking with that, as the older generation tended to be heavy smokers and in general more men smoked more often than women. Smoking is likely to have a severe impact on lungs heart etc

        So lots of generalisations but collectively I think you maybe have the answer.


      • I had thought about smoking as well.

        In the coming years there will be many post Mortems to dig into all the variables at play across countries, ages, sex, comorbidities, etc etc. In a comment below I noted the very low number of deaths in a few highly populated countries. At this point a lot of interesting data to ponder……..and ask ourselves why.

      • stevenreincarnated

        Women have a stronger immune system thanks to having 2 X chromosomes or so the hypothesis goes.

      • Apparently in my state, 65% of deaths are men but 51% of cases. The stories about other countries indicated over 70% men.

        Thanks Steve, I wasn’t aware of that.

    • More likely the mild weather is the culprit.

  41. Robert Clark

    I found a chart of confirmed cases in Buzz Fact News. It shows the total number of confirmed cases. It goes to 3/26/2020. Total on that date is 69,246. It seems to show the beginning of the efforts of the people’s success. Another week may show we won.

    • Robert Clark

      I assume they are subtracting those that were in quarentine and now show clean.

    • A sieve holds water. It also leaks it. Every mitigation policy in the US to date is a sieve, and probably little different than having done almost nothing. Close to exponential in multiple states, and most of the others will follow.

      First Climate Etc. post on SARS-CoV-2 was March 14. How many here, other than me, expect ~75,000 confirmed cases as of this time today?

      By Easter Sunday, the date of the promised biblical miracle, all numbers, including dead bodies, are going to be much bigger.

      • It’s early but US is already rolling over…not following a geometric growth curve. Obviously, there is no direction for cases and deaths to go accept up. 2001 H1N1 continues to infect and kill still.

      • What is the definition of a ‘case’?

        Is it sufficiently serious clinical manifestations that actual medical treatment is required?

        Or is it just folks with mild flu-like symptoms who happen to be carrying SARS-CoV2 in their system?

      • UK-Weather Lass-In-Earnest

        For comparison sake only:

        “Influenza activity picked up again last week, reaching a new peak this season. Still, this season remains far milder than last year, according to the Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention [Trusted Source (CDC)].

        The flu is now widespread in 48 states and Puerto Rico. Since October 1, 2018, there’s been up to 20.4 million reported cases of the flu, between 8.2 and 9.6 million flu-related medical visits, 214,000 to 256,000 hospitalizations, and 13,600 22,300 deaths, the CDC estimates [Trusted Source].

        An additional seven pediatric deaths were reported last week, bringing the total of flu-related deaths in children to 41.

        Flu season is definitely here, and the CDC expects activity to remain elevated for several weeks.

        February 22, 2019 (Healthline)”

        Did anyone on here even look at this data last year?

    • ~7,500 new USA cases posted as of noon hour today. Rolling over for Easter Sunday is bigger than the parting of the Red Sea.

    • Mitigation. Boris panicked. 20,000 is currently worse than Italy.

      • Mitigation my arse. It is how all the alarmists will respond though. “Look at all the lives we just saved.”

      • He stopped listening to you folks.

        “Get back in your seats! Remain calm. Watch the rest of the show. There’s more smoke in this theater on cigar night than there is right now.”

    • Dr Birx just spoke about the prediction of deaths in the U.K. from that study being revised downward from 500,000 to 20,000.

      She also admonished those who have made explosive comments about what is about to happen without foundation.

      • Like throwing a Hail Mary to Jesus on Easter Sunday, 15 to close to zero, Kudlow’s airtight, or the malaria drug is going to be a game changer

        Less that 20,000 is worse than Italy.

      • It’s being revised downward if, if, the countermeasure which did not exit when they ran it the first time, work as expected.

        She relied upon the Imperial College of London model, which indicated ~500,000 deaths in the UK and ~2.2 million United States.

        Was that an explosive statement with no foundation?


        She relied on it then, and she is still relying upon the model.

      • Two different thoughts. One not related to the other. Simply part of her briefing.

      • I’m worried about JCH, for multiple reasons. Very feverish and incoherent.

      • Don

        Out of politeness I didn’t want to bring it up, but yes that is what I thought. A lot of words, in some order, but not sure if they were in random order.

        In golf, when you hit a poor shot, sometimes a sympathetic opponent will give you a mulligan. I was considering offering him a mulligan on his comment, to see if he could come up with something understandable.

        I’ve noticed some of the same difficulties with the English language and incoherence in the ramblings of a frail, tottering old politician who has this commercial

        “I’m Joe Biden, and I forgot this message”

      • I am afraid the Red Chinese Wuhan Pelosi De Blasio Bat Soup Virus has gotten him and that’s why he is rooting for the virus and against the efforts of the Big Orange Fella to eradicate it. Stay tuned.

    • nobodysknowledge

      “The Imperial College predicted that over 500,000 people could die in the U.K., and over two million could die in the U.S., but Ferguson said he now expects the death toll in Britain to be under 20,000, according to NewScientist.”

      • Well yes, IC predicted 500,000 people could die in the UK and they were 100,000 out in their estimations since 600,000, on average, die every year.

      • Nonsense

      • Bill

        You are perfectly correct. To put things into context, we have some 600,000 deaths a year in the UK of which 140,000 (yes 140,000) come under the category of ‘avoidable’ everything from people dying of cold through to obesity and car accidents.

        In 2017 we had 28000 deaths from flu and in 2014 some 48000 deaths from flu.

        According to Prof Ferguson yesterday, around two thirds that will die of Covid 19 this year (generally the very old and very ill) would probably have died anyway in 2020. His words not mine.

      • Did you see what JCH said, tony. I wonder if he is with us.

      • Don

        I am reaching out to JCH across the Atlantic and hope my presence will help calm him down…

        Perhaps all he needs is a nice quiet sit down with a cup of tea and a chocolate digestive biscuit?


      • We have never seen him, tony. He could be very very very very small. Which would explain his cheerleading for the virus.

      • jungletrunks

        Don, Maybe even as small as a virus, which could explain his virulent expressions. Though it appears a delirious state is the most common attribute of the TDS virus. It’s seems to be hitting the Left particularly hard this season. Sorry we can’t share masks at the moment, JCH, the rest of the country has priorities. Possibly masks will become available in 5 years.

  42. Curious George

    The Diamond Princess carried 3,700 people. Her sister ship, the Grand Princess, carried 3,500 people when it was quarantined for Covid-19. When most of crew and all passengers disembarked in Oakland, California, everybody with symptoms was tested. Result: 19 crew members tested positive, all recovered. 2 passengers out of 2,000 tested positive.

    Later in the quarantine, of the 1,103 passengers that elected to be tested, 103 tested positive. Two passengers died.

    These numbers are in a sharp contrast with the Diamond Princess. I hope experts will tell us why, some day.

    Testing kit shortage: in Israel they discovered that by mixing 32 samples into one testing kit, positives could still be reliably detected. In a negative case, you have excluded 32 people with one testing kit. In a positive case you have to do individual tests again. Sorry, lost the link.

  43. USA takes the lead on worldometer:

    It’s going to to be “15 to close to 0” by 14 days prior to churches full of people on Easter Sunday.

    I give myself a 10.

  44. Jpangleworth

    Always figured that Nic Lewis was a worthless bucket of scum. Sh!tferbrainz for posting this while the USA is swirling down the drain

  45. log regression for the last 12days gives 2.3 day doubling time for new cases. If you restrict the fitting period to the last 5d you may get twice that value but you are playing with wiggles in the data.

    • Cases are a statistical crapshoot. Deaths are far more likely to find us…
      This has always been my biggest issue with the assumed progression and draconian actions. This thing was running wild in the USA for at least two months. If high R0 and high CFR, we would have been overwhelmed before we knew it was upon us. Our assumptions are wrong.

      Meanwhile weekly jobless claims just broke the old (1982) record by a factor of about 5…3.2 million in one week.

  46. “Of the 2,985 confirmed cases in Australia, 13 have died from COVID-19. More than 181,000 tests have been conducted across Australia.”

    There were 186 new cases yesterday. There will be half a million 18 minute test kits available by next week. It is about ‘flattening the curve’. To prevent overloading medical services. Apparently. But the genie is out of the bottle. The solution is herd immunity acquired through exposure – with effective therapies hopefully – or vaccination.

    There is a rapid response vaccination platform available for this class of virus. It relies on synthesizing stabilized viral proteins using recombinant DNA technology.

    “Molecular clamp is a broadly applicable platform technology that facilitates expression of recombinant viral glycoproteins in subunit form without loss of native antigenicity.”
    Dr Keith Chappell

  47. One point, although old the people on the diamond Princess would have been screened and approved by their doctors, so might be more robust than the general population.

    This might see the death toll figures here?

    • 90-year-olds can survive it. I believe the percentage is well over 50%.

      • JCH

        Yes it has been interesting that sometimes the older you are the better your immune system can cope.

        I can only put it down to an excellent war time diet, that they have already suffered a variety of illnesses and lower hygiene standards in the past added to this robustness.

        My gran used to say ‘you need to eat a peck of dirt before you die’ this is as opposed to the recent generations who sanitise everything, often have very limited diets and are often reluctant for children to get dirty


    • John Ferguson

      Nial, “…old (the) people screened by their doctors”????
      None of the 6 cruises we’ve taken in last 5 years has required a note from our doctors, and we’re now 77. Four different cruise lines. Road Scholar which rates their tours by vigor, didn’t require a doctor’s clearance for us to take one last summer (at 77) which required 3 mile hikes per day – not all days.

      I would agree that Diamond Princess population was probably in better shape that typical for their cohorts –

  48. nobodysknowledge

    Anew study from CEBM Oxford University.
    It goes into the Iceland data:.
    UPDATE 26TH MARCH Iceland:
    Iceland is presenting many interesting pointers for estimating the CFR. Iceland has tested a higher proportion of people than any other country (9,768 individuals), equivalent to  26,762 per million inhabitants the highest in the world (as a  comparison, South Korea has teated  6,343 individuals).
    The results of screenings have suggested 0.5% are infected;  the true figure is likely higher due to asymptomatic and as a result of many not seeking testing: estimates suggest the real number infected is 1%. Iceland is currently reporting two deaths in 737 patients, CFR. 0.27%; if 1% of the population (364,000) is infected then the corresponding IFR would be 0.05%.  However, they have limited infections in the elderly as their test and quarantine measures have seemingly shielded this group, and the deaths will lag by about two weeks after the infections. Iceland’s higher rates of testing, the smaller population. and their ability to ascertain all those with Sars-CoV-2  means they will likely provide an accurate estimate of the CFR and the IFR.  Current data from Iceland suggests the IFR is somewhere between 0.05% and 0.14%.
    What matters is now is how many people get infected in a short space of time – to what extent this overwhelms healthcare services and whether they can manage – the impact of measures to reduce spread are crucial in the upward phase of a pandemic that can affect a significant number of people at any one time.

    • nobodysknowledge

      From the same study. Based on all countries with a Case Fatality over 0,30%. Over 60 countries.

      “Updated: 26th March: Estimating COVID-19 Case Fatality Rates (CFR) and Infection Rate Fatality (IFR)

      The Infection Rate Fatality (IFR) differs from the CFR in that aims to estimate the fatality rate in all those with infection: the detected disease (cases) and those with an undetected disease (asymptomatic and not tested group). if tested, this group would be counted as infected and at least temporarily be immune.

      Our current best assumption, as of the 22nd March, is the IFR is approximate 0.29% (95% CI, 0.25 to 0.33).*

      In the elderly, co-morbidities have a significant impact on the CFR: those with ≥ 3 comorbidities are at much higher risk, particularly those with cardiovascular conditions. Modelling the data on the prevalence of comorbidities is essential to understand the CFR and IFR by age. In those without pre-existing health conditions, and over 70, the data is reassuring that the IFR will likely not be above 1%. The prevalence of comorbidities is highly age-dependent and is higher in socially deprived.”

  49. Nic, would be interesting to get your reaction to Ferguson’s backtracking and backtracking on the backtracking. I assume your primary point is that the original study was badly flawed because it used assumptions that were not supported by the data, and aren’t now supported by more updated real world data. Do you consider his estimates of infection and death rates to be extremely unlikely? This matters significantly, because for example, in my state of Minnesota the governor is using that model to justify a complete economic lockdown.

  50. Population Cases Deaths

    India 1.3 B. 843 20
    Pakistan 212 M 1,252 9
    Russia 146 M 1,036 3
    Germany 83 M 47,000 285
    Thailand 70 M 1,136 5
    Spain 64 M 64,000 4858
    Italy 60 M 80,000 8200

    There has been much discussion about the high number of fatalities in Italy, but I don’t remember seeing thoughts about the low levels of deaths in highly populated countries such as India, Pakistan, Russia and Thailand.

    • jungletrunks

      IMO, For western nations I consider population comparisons more relevant than individual country stats. Western Europe’s total population is pretty close to the US total population. Comparing much smaller countries to the US is a bit ridiculous when infection rates as a percentage of those countries is much higher. Just like there’s hot spots in Europe, the same in the US. Also, I have more faith in western nation stats, than i.e. China/Russia, etc.

    • > There has been much discussion about the high number of fatalities in Italy, but I don’t remember seeing thoughts about the low levels of deaths in highly populated countries such as India, Pakistan, Russia and Thailand.

      Perhaps you should wait. You night have spoken about the low level of cases here in the US about a month ago, like our American hero did. You know, when there was a total of 15, which was headed down to in a few days after that, doncha know.

      • It was the low level of deaths to cases ratios in those countries which continue compared to the ratios of high numbers of cases in the other countries weeks ago. Or was that over your head?

        If the last 3 1/2 years have been bad for you, I can only imagine your state of mind after another 5 1/2 years. Or if efforts to repeal the 22nd Amendment in favor of ad infinitum terms, you might want to consider life coach health insurance coverage.

      • You get to suffer through the Big Orange Fellas reign for only another 4 years and 10 months, at least. He is getting so popular, we might have to amend the Constitution.

    • > , but I don’t remember seeing thoughts about the low levels of deaths in highly populated countries

      Well, you spoke of number of deaths – but you may want to wait on extrapolating death rates for India based on 843 cases.

      What I say about it, is that you should wait before doing so.

  51. jungletrunks

    Statista is the site I use to peruse the latest statistical data. It covers a number of statistical profiles for the disease besides nation totals.

  52. The colorado data: (covid positive — number of tests performed — ration of positive/tests)
    1 44 0.022727273
    8 44 0.181818182
    8 44 0.181818182
    8 44 0.181818182
    12 83 0.144578313
    17 124 0.137096774
    34 300 0.113333333
    49 400 0.1225
    77 600 0.128333333
    101 719 0.140472879
    131 938 0.139658849
    160 1216 0.131578947
    185 1790 0.103351955
    216 2328 0.092783505
    277 2902 0.095451413
    385 3650 0.105479452
    475 4550 0.104395604
    691 5498 0.125682066
    720 6224 0.115681234
    912 7701 0.118426178
    1086 8064 0.134672619
    1430 10122 0.141276428

    The tests are essentially a random sample of sick people within Colorado (with a bias toward paranoid schizos). So this says that out of a random sample of sick people, about 12% of them are sick from the covid, and a number of other viruses are responsible for the rest.
    This has NOT CHANGED since day one. This means that COVID was already widespread throughout the population from day one and has not grown in percentage. If it was growing, an increasing number of sicknesses would be created by covid.

    • (These numbers are from day one of the panic through yesterday (vertical timeline))

    • Reference, please!

      • The spreadsheets at the bottom have the # tested and # positive for each date.
        They were plotting both every day, but they have now sanitized printing the number of tests, for obvious reasons (doesn’t support the narrative).

      • A screenshot I grabbed:

      • “The Political Advantages of Murky Data”

        Thank you, nickels, for your posts pointing out an important analysis — which is number of positive (cases) test results per number of tests conducted each day. The Colorado data you showed was indicating about a constant 12% for each day’s batch of tests, with no increasing rate. So, how does that approx. 12% compare with the test accuracy in terms of rate of false-positives? Apparently, no one has evaluated the test accuracy and published the results. (Please post if anyone finds a reference for this.) I did a “google” search to look for a medical report, but only found one article where the PCR test had been evaluated for tuberculosis, with this result:
        “Several participating laboratories reported high levels of false-positive PCR results, with rates ranging from 3 to 20% and with one extreme value of 77%.”
        So, we need to see this ratio of positive test results per total number of tests conducted each day (or week) for various locations/states. Is this ratio increasing? Why is this very important data so hard to find? Please post if you do find this. Thank you!
        Also, there is likely enough data now that we could see the results for healthy people, by age group, instead of just data for sick people (who may already be sick and dying of other causes even before they were tested). The Covid risks for healthy people should be compared to the risks for seasonal flu, by age group. If that is about the same, then this whole trama was unnecessary. But the important data and analyses are not shown. Why is that?

      • There are subtleties (lags) that are not accounted for, but, still, one would expect every sick person to start being a covid soon enough. We are NOT seeing this.

        On the left is the daily trend of total positives / total tests (colorado).
        On the right is the same, but by day (by day done by just diffing the time series), i.e. the percentage of positives on a given day / percents tests done on that day.

    • Isn’t the ingenuity and inherent innovative spirit that is engendered in stories like this a great thing to see? Given freedom to address problems, human beings will always come through. An argument in favor of free market capitalism versus control command communism.

  53. Pingback: Another report that Fatality Rate seems much lower – Dr. Kessler, MD

  54. Bill Gates and Dr Seth Berkley Gavi, outline how they plan to save us all. #CovidPurpose The real Culprits, heroes or zeroes. #WuhanandhisDog #CoronaVaccine #VaccinationCovid19 #ElectroChemistryCovid19 Corona Virus cover story for electromagnetic control Grid pt2 . @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @ClarkeMicah

  55. nobodysknowledge

    A very large portion of the population in Netherlands seems to be infected by Corona. Already in the beginning of March. Much of it is spread through the Health Care system. From the Brabant region. Random testing.
    “Test results
    From 6 to 8 March 1097 hospital workers were tested of which 3.9 per cent was indeed infected with COVID-19. The percentages vary per hospital and are between 0 and 10 per cent. Two hundred patients were also tested. Of these patients, an average of 9 per cent was infected with the virus. Again, there are differences between hospitals. The people who were tested already had symptoms.”

    • Unfortunately, a random sample of hospital staff is not comparable to a random sample of the population, so it doesn’t tell us much. However, if one works on the basis that hospital workers are at least as likely to be infected as the general population, then no more than about 4% of the population were currently infected with COVID-19 from 6-8 March. That doesn’t count people who are immune and were uninfected for 6-8 March, nor does it allow for the increase in the people infected since 6-8 March, of course.

      • > Unfortunately, a random sample of hospital staff is not comparable to a random sample of the population, so it doesn’t tell us much.

        A population of people on a cruise is practically the drfinition of a non-random sample.

    • nobodysknowledge

      If the 4% infected is representative for the whole country and for the whole population, then there was 68000 infected cases in Netherland 8. March.The statistics tells us that it was 265 cases. 1 out of 256 infected were detected. 14 days later about 200 had died. This gives us a death rate of 0,3%.

      • nobodysknowledge

        My guess is that the infected part of health workers is much higher than the general population, perhaps the double. Then the death rate would be about 0,15%. Likely range IFR between 0,15 and o,3?

      • nobodysknowledge

        My blunder. The death rate would be about 0,6% if there was 34000 infected 8. March. It seems not very likely. Perhaps the likely range is a death rate of 0,15% to 0,6%.

      • nobodysknowledge

        From the Oxford study of Jason Oke, Carl Heneghan. Updated 27th March. IFR is estimated to 0,29%. “Therefore we can estimate that the IFR is 0.29% (95% CI, 0.25% to 0.33%); at least half that of the CFR of Germany.”
        But they get Iceland lower: “However, they have limited infections in the elderly as their test and quarantine measures have seemingly shielded this group, and the deaths will lag by about two weeks after the infection. Iceland’s higher rates of testing, the smaller population, and their ability to ascertain all those with Sars-CoV-2 means they will likely provide an accurate estimate of the CFR and the IFR. Current data from Iceland suggests the IFR is somewhere between 0.05% and 0.14%.”
        Something to learn fro Iceland?

    • Dutch patient Zero (till now) gave his first and only interview after being cured. He was in the leather business and flew to Italy for that on February 18th . On return he was a-symptomatic but he infected half his direct family at home. He is 56 and made it, with some hospital help.

  56. Ireneusz Palmowski

    March 27 (GMT)
    5909 new cases and 919 new deaths in Italy. Highest number of new deaths since the beginning of the epidemic in Italy. 46 doctors have died to date (with 4 additional deaths today). 6414 health workers have tested positive.

    • for the last 8 days Italy has been declaring between 5000 and 6000 per day. No upward trend over the 8d may a terrible flux per day, every day.

      Luckily Germany has offered to take 49 case, but not straight away :(

  57. I looked up polio for a comparison. According to Wikipedia, the 1952 outbreak of polio in the US caused about 3100 deaths and 21,000 cases of paralysis (of varying degrees o severity.) The world had much more experience with polio at that time than it has had with SARS CoV-2, but much less experience developing vaccines against viruses.

    As I write, 1543 Americans have died of COVID-19, out of 100,000+ confirmed cases. So this disease is (apparently rapidly) approaching 1952 polio. The US did not shut down its whole economy for polio in any year, and I expect the US will get back to work starting in two weeks or less, once all the statistics about case fatality rate and such are known more reliably.

    Right now worldometers reports 2463 “serious, critical” cases. But New York City is looking much worse than the aggregate rest of the US.

    • On Easter Sunday there are going to be a lot of dead people.

      As I understand it, only a few provinces outside of Hubei had confirmed cases over 1,000. They had nothing like these US numbers:

      • Well, your comparison of U.S. confirmed cases with Red China Thugocracy confirmed cases may be problematic. We are not using Red Chinese tests:

        Maybe the ones they use on their own oppressed people are more reliable than those they are selling to the hapless Medicare4all Euros.

        Also, since they lie about everything else, maybe we shouldn’t rely on their reported stats regarding this Wuhan Bird Soup Virus they have spread all over the World. But if you want to believe that they have done a better job of containing the death and destruction caused by their spawn than the Big Orange Fella is doing, shame on you. What size death count on Easter Sunday would you prefer?

      • China and Italy were once on the same track, but China has already done something that would work:

      • It is meaningless producing nice little graphs of “tragectory” if you do not say what the basis of you projection is. What are you doing , linear extrapolation, exponential extrapolation ( very dodgy at any time ), power series…. based on what calibration period and what assumptions.

      • The graph is not meaningless. China is led by intelligent people. They had a SARS plan. It has clearly worked. you can see it in the graph. Italy imposed sieve-like regional lockdowns, didn’t work, and then nationwide sieve-like lockdowns that have not worked. You can see that in the graph.

        The west went with imitating South Korea not knowing that South Korea was just following the Chinese SARS strategy, which never would have done in the west what South Korea did. Trump’s countermeasures have been even worse, and the result are looking predictable. It’s what every hospital concluded weeks ago, clear out the beds and get ready for Italy, and beyond. They did not buy 15 will soon be close to zero, airtight containment, etc.

        There is not one single province outside of Hubei in China that has had more than 1,500 cases total to date, and a tiny number over 1,000. The vast majority are under 1,000. And active case totals in the China are zooming toward a very low number, probably around 1,000 by Easter, a miracle. Our situation is far far more dire. We have potential escalation to the current NYC-type disaster in more than one place. Look at the states with over 1,000 cases. DC area numbers growing quickly.

      • jch

        With regard to your table can I throw an interesting little nugget that came out yesterday. Jews represent 0.5% of the UK population . They are over represented in UK deaths ten fold.

        NY is stereotypically a jewish town and I do not know the truth of that these days but I wondered if they were also over represented in deaths? Last time I was in NY there were a lot of Italians there. Are they over represented in the stats?

        If so is that telling us anything about lifestyles and how those groups can be identified to receive specific help?


      • I can’t help noticing the top 5 states have Democrats for governors. What is it about Democrats that they aren’t on top of this emergency?

  58. “So, for example, twelve thousand five hundred with a decimal of five zero is written differently depending on the country:

    In the USA, Mexico, or the UK, it would be written: 12 500.50 or 12,500.50
    In Spain, South Africa, or Brazil, it would be: 12 500,50 or 12.500,50”

    Either is allowable in SI units – preferably consistently.

    There are – btw – some 40 vaccines in development globally.

  59. This disease is not the COVID pandemic.
    This disease is the metabolic syndrome pandemic.

    Represented are bacteria, not virus, but many aspects pertain:

  60. where do you get the idea that any reaction so far anywhere on the planet can be best characterized as “panic”?

    There has been no panic, no hysteria no chaos anywhere certainly in north America and even in highly stressed areas like Italy or Spain societies are not remotely falling off the deep end into anything like panic. If you were describing the effects of a war or any other shock to the status quo, would you call it Panic simply because people were taking it seriously and acting as advised ?

    You choice of language reveals a bias of a particular attitude that is rampant in conservatives, one that can’t quite spit it out directly but wishes to imply that all this pandemic stuff is just the flu. Well pal the Spanish flu was just the flu too….

    for the first little while

  61. Nic: Unlike your data from the cruise ship, which has a well-defined end point, coronavirus infections in the community aren’t going to stop at any particular time. The epidemic presumably will only stop when “herd immunity” is high enough and the transmission rate (reduced by increasing precautions) to the vulnerable population is low enough. Analysis of data from a cruise ship might provide useful information about the exponential growth phase of an epidemic, but it isn’t immediately obvious to me why it will tell us much about the plateau and wind down – nor much about how changing behavior is changing transmission.

    I personally find it informative to compare the coronavirus pandemic to the influenza pandemic that occurs every winter. In the US (according to the CDC figures I found), an average of 30 million Americans (1 in 11) get the flu in an average year, despite a 50% vaccination rate that provides protection against perhaps half of the flu strains circulating in an average year. During the 1918 flu pandemic, 1 in 3 Americans (1 in 4 globally) are believed to have been infected, because the 1918 strain hadn’t been part of past seasonal epidemics and there was no “herd immunity”. There are coronaviruses that cause the “common cold”, but we don’t know they have produced any herd immunity to COVID-19. 3 in 7 of Americans infected with flu visit their doctor and could be prescribed Tamiflu, which might reduce the need for hospitalization. About 500,000 Americans (1 in 60 infected) are hospitalized for flu every year, mostly in winter and perhaps 10,000 die (1 in 50 of those hospitalized). Pneumonia and acute respiratory distress could be listed as the cause of death, so the actual death rate is probably uncertain. The weekly death toll from all causes is about 10% higher in winter, at least in part because of influenza. I guesstimate that, in a peak week, flu might hospitalize 50,000 patients, a non-alarming burden in a country with 1,000,000 hospital beds, 100,000 ICU beds and the staff to handle them.

    IF coronavirus behaves like the 1918 influenza, it could infect 1 in 3 and produce 3-4 times as many cases as influenza, more than 100 million. And if 1 in 10 of those infected need to be hospitalized, the demand for hospitalization and emergency room services could be 20-fold higher. And those services can only be provided by local hospitals; my national numbers don’t account for local variability. In Wuhan, patients were dying in hospital hallways until they built two new “emergency treatment facilities” in 10 days. Just yesterday, patients died waiting in line with more than 100 people outside a NYC emergency room, and NYC is converting their convention center into an emergency treatment facility. This anecdotal evidence suggests to me that the above scary assumptions (20-fold bigger hospitalization problem than flu) may have some basis in reality. No political leader in a developed or partially developed country can afford to do nothing after being advised such a policy could result in sick citizens dying waiting for treatment. Thus they are willing to shut down many businesses and spend an absurd amount of taxpayer money dealing with the economic repercussions of quarantine. … All in HOPES of stopping an exponential growth in cases. Do our politicians have the leadership, management ability, ability to quickly marshall resources and implement adequate procedures, and inspire the discipline needed to end exponentially increasing case load. So Asian countries do. … And keep it manageable until something changes: vaccination, a drug like chloroquinine, ?

    A 20-fold increase in influenza deaths would be about 0.25 million. Almost 3 million Americans die every year … but they don’t die because our health care system has been overwhelmed. The demand for hospital services may be more important (politically) than the death rate. (Since I had to make a visit to the hospital emergency room last winter because of influenza, perhaps I shouldn’t make careless statements about death rate. Inhaled albuterol was amazing, Tamiflu may have helped win the war against flu viruses, and an antibiotic may have helped with a touch of pneumonia.)

    • USA is on the Italy track.

      • Not really. Italy has had 151 deaths per 1 million of population and we are at 5, with a lot more confirmed cases than Italy. We have way more people than Italy, JCH. Our healthcare system has not collapsed they way Italy’s Medicare4all has buckled under the load. And it won’t.

        We also don’t have at least a hundred thousand folks from China working in sweatshops in the garment and leather goods industries, many who went home to Wuhan on regular direct flights and returned in large numbers with the Wuhan Bat Soup virus. That is why Italy has been so hard hit.

        Sorry to disappoint you, but we are not on the Italy track.

      • Don and JCH: This Figure from the Financial Times this week may be informative. In the early days of exponential growth, the total number of cases may be the more relevant metric for measuring the effectiveness of government intervention, but one certainly needs to consider cases per capita once exponential growth has begun to plateau. Whether that plateau is reached at 1 in 10, 1 in 100, 1 in 1000, etc is the ultimate measure of success.

        I don’t have an agenda here; just an untested hypothesis developed by comparing seasonal influenza with the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The seasonal flu epidemic never really ends, but grows exponentially as the temperature falls. COVID-19 presumably started with a single case in Wuhan in December and has grown exponentially since then. My gut instinct is that the problem is potentially an order of magnitude or more greater than seasonal influenza and capable of overwhelming health care systems. I showed why that is POSSIBLE, but not that it IS OCCURRING in any particular location. Lockdowns, social distancing and other measures are likely to perturb (and clearly have perturbed in some locations) the course of both the COVID-19 and flu epidemics. A year from now, perhaps there will be a scientific consensus about how COVID-19 compares with seasonal influenza.

        If repairing the economic damage from these measures adds $2T to the official deficit (and more to the Fed balance sheet), then we *^&*#%! well better make those measures work HERE! Americans aren’t as disciplined as Asians and often have a weaker sense of community. This crisis is going to challenge the effectiveness of our leadership and bureaucracy at all levels.

    • Frank, I agree that the Diamond Princess data doesn’t tell one much about how the epidemic will develop in terms of infections. However, it is informative about what proportion of people in various age groups are likely to die if infected, which is what my article was about.

      • Nic – Thanks for illuminating the difference between your article and my comment. Long ago, I read an informal article on SARS by David Baltimore, who pointed out that viruses can evolve and become less deadly during an epidemic. The really deadly viruses (such as Ebola) that incapacitate people within a day or even hours of first feeling ill have difficulty being transmitted, so less deadly mutants can be more prevalent in the later stages of an epidemic. I think the 1918 influenza because less deadly with time. IIRC, syphilis (caused by a bacteria that evolves more slowly than viruses) originally was acute, rather than chronic, disease. Baltimore predicted that SARS wouldn’t re-appear because it never became easily transmissible.

        At the moment, COVID-19 appears to have a long incubation/infectious period, but the earliest news stories (for whatever they are worth) made it sound more deadly than the numbers you presented. A less deadly strain may have been selected in Wuhan and spread to the rest of the world, or we may find varying lethality around the world. Assuming the Diamond Princess epidemic started with a single patient, your lethality data applies to the strain carried by that patient. The replication machinery of viruses is remarkably sloppy, but we experience the consequences of that sloppiness only when there is significant evolutionary pressure to select for a “fitter” strain. (A combination of three drugs is essential when treating HIV, because resistance develops to any single drug within a month.) Evolution of COVID-19 may or may not change its lethality.

    • The only way to not be on the Italy track is to do something – panic.

      Trump panicked. You were telling him not to. On March 14, he started listening to me, not you.

      • You are hurt and desperately cheering on the virus to get us on the Italy track. Give yourself a 10, for irrelevance.

      • Don and JCH: The best way to measure the effectiveness of national containment policies is on the Financial Times graph that I cited, but which didn’t appear in my comment. The graph shows the growth of cases on a vertical log scale beginning with the first day each nation reported 10 cases. (Earlier numbers depend on the behavior of individual patients and the possibility of positives.) No countries except South Korea and Hong Kong are doing a good job, because the cost of action is astronomical and all leaders are bound by political constraints. No Winston Churchills prophetizing this crisis and such politicians are usually kept far from power (in the wilderness, as Churchill put it). Hong Kong and South Korea were densely populated countries extremely vulnerable to the epidemic in China, which caused them to take effective precautions, but neither cut off travel with China because their economies were highly dependent on China.

        At this point, the crisis is about administrative effectiveness. The response to Hurricane Katrina was ineffective and Bush paid a big price. Critique that – or better still, find some way to help.

  62. 100% cure rate!
    CDC knew since at least 2005 that Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine is effective PREVENTION and cure against coronaviruses. Why are we shutting down economies all over the world instead of mass producing and distributing it? Why were any ALLEGED needed mass trials not already done? (The article I sent yesterday about Dr Philippe Gautreta showed 100% of patients that received a combination of HCQ and Azithromycin tested negative and were virologically cured within 6 days of treatment. (small study, but 100% – so why were not larger trials already done? MONEY! No patent for an existing drug – both capitalism and socialism have dark sides and both are de facto conspiring against the people in this case)
    Yesterday I was at the hospital here for another problem – alcohol – a far worse scourge than the flu or COVID 19. I talked to the doctor (not an infectious disease doctor) about it and got a lot of mumbo jumbo about how they were not sure it would cure, that they needed large scale trials to make sure, that Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine could be possibly dangerous in large doses (when it has been widely used for over a century for malaria in the necessary doses). Yet they are shutting down the world economies, letting people suffer and die, and making them live in fear! This is a crime against humanity! And de facto conspiracy for money (no patent for Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine ), possibly for other political purposes. ~”Never let a crisis that can be used for other purposes go to waste.” – several politicians/pundits.
    Instead of pursuing and spreading the prevention and cure, calming world population – politicians/agencies are terrorizing people, throttling economies,
    ; pushing for undiscovered, unproven, unnecessary, mandatory vaccinations; one world government (loss of sovereignty), even marital law/suspension of habeas corpus, even shoot-on-sight for violators of quarantine in a few places. The media is “out to capture your dime” and fear sells better than even sex.
    The US government has shut down CDC offices and cut staff while continuing to unnecessarily increase spending on non-working, unnecessary military weapons.

    • Small study out of China indicates no prophylactic effect.

      • stevenreincarnated

        They didn’t test it as a prophylaxis. All the patients received anti-viral medication of some type although I’m not sure of the type. They didn’t compare with just chloroquine which means we don’t know if the chloroquine would have been just as effective by itself.They also didn’t compare with people that received no treatment. It’s quite possible that several drugs could make an effective treatment and/or prophylactic. What makes chloroquine so appealing is that it is dirt cheap compared to most and could be given in mass without breaking the bank if it is effective.

      • Where is your criticism of the French studies?

      • stevenreincarnated

        I haven’t disputed that the evidence is anecdotal at least as far as in vivo goes. I just don’t have a problem with using anecdotal evidence when that is the only evidence you have. It works in vitro so in theory it should work in vivo. The drug is fairly safe. The contraindications are well known. If that wan’t enough there have been enough doctors out there self-medicating to where all we need to do is collect the data to get a reasonable idea if it is effective. This is as a prophylactic so any changes in physiology due to heavy viral infections is immaterial.

      • JCH: Where is your criticism of the French studies?

        Go here. I posted this a couple days ago. Note comment about dropouts. Only one study has been reported to date.

  63. Frank,
    Deaths from the seasonal flu are already 23,000 this season, but recent rates of new cases seem to indicate it’s peaking, or past the worst.

    See figure 2:

    Look particularly at the 2017-2018 flu season figure chart:
    Estimated: Illnesses 45,000,000 Hospitalizations 810,000 Deaths 61,000

    With this relatively mild flu season on the decline, we should be able to handle this thing. People lined up outside that overcrowded hospital in Queens maybe should be put on a shuttle bus to Staten Island, or Manhattan, or Long Island. Mario could take some of those thousands of respirators he has received from the feds and deploy them. Move resources from upstate, where the infection cases are light. Hospital ship coming. Don’t encourage New Yorkers to attend the Chinese New Year Parade, or the Mardi Gras in New Orleans, next year.

    The hotbed of New York and New Jersey have over half of the U.S active cases. It looks like New Orleans is trying to catch up with them. They are not going to be left to their own devices. Serious or critical cases in the U.S. are 2,494 out of 100,000 active cases. They aren’t dying in the streets, or because of lack of respirators. Unless this get’s a lot worse all at once, we can handle it.

    • Ooops! “Mario” I meant Fredo.

    • Don: Thanks for the reply. I reported the average experience with flu over the most recent ten years with data, not the values for any particular year. IIRC, the worst year had twice as many cases as average (60,000,000). However, but I made an error when reporting average deaths of 10,000/year rather than than the correct value 37,000/year. The numbers you report above for 2017-2018 are all about 50% higher than the averages I reported, so they are reasonably consistent.

      My thesis was that COVID-19 has the potential to produce 20X times greater hospitalization rates that an average influenza year because: 1) There is some “herd immunity” to average seasonal influenza from previous epidemics and vaccination, but not to COVID-19. 2) COVID-19 infections seem more serious than influenza. There is some evidence to support rational 1), but I offered no hospitalization data for rational 2), just a gut impression. You reported:

      “Serious or critical cases in the U.S. are 2,494 out of 100,000 active cases”

      and I hope this is true, in particular that this is the hospitalization rate. Your numbers aren’t much worse than for influenza in an average year (1 in 40 vs 1 in 50). In that case, COVID-19 probably hasn’t been and won’t be overwhelming the ability of the existing health care systems, which deal with seasonal influenza every year. In other words, we are panicking and spending $2T to deal with a problem equivalent to a bad year for influenza (and I’m not talking about as bad as 1918/9). I don’t claim any expertise about current numbers or their reliability of COVID-19 patients. Only time will tell if the COVID-19 crisis, possibly like the climate change crisis, has been subject to moderation or gross exaggeration. Unfortunately it will take much longer to find out about climate change.

      • This is where the stats seem to be accurately updated regularly, Frank:
        active cases currently:115,292
        serious, critical: 2,666
        Still, over half of the active cases are in NY and NJ, with New Orleans trying to catch up. NY Gov. Fredo admitted today he has thousands of ventilators in reserve, but hasn’t deployed them because they are not needed.

    • Frank,
      That info comes from but when I include the link comment does not appear. Latest:
      U.S. active cases: 115,292 serious, critical 2,666

      Majority of active cases again in NY, NJ. New Orleans coming on strong.

      NY Gov. Fredo admitted today that he has thousands of ventilators in reserve, but has not deployed them because they are not currently needed.

  64. Matthew R Marler

    Rumors from China:

    There is no reliable news from China, and has not been any for weeks.

  65. Ireneusz Palmowski

    As long as there is no vaccine, the only real remedy is plasma from a person who has antibodies. The virus is not transmitted through blood. Otherwise, the lives of around 20% of those infected are at risk.

    Some easing of doubling time of new US cases in last 7 days.

  67. Daily new case load stabilising but high in major EU countries.

  68. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The Mount Sinai Health System this week plans to initiate a procedure known as plasmapheresis, where the antibodies from patients who have recovered from COVID-19 will be transferred into critically ill patients with the disease, with the expectation that the antibodies will neutralize it.

    The process of using antibody-rich plasma from COVID-19 patients to help others was used successfully in China, according to a state-owned organization, which reported that some patients improved within 24 hours, with reduced inflammation and viral loads, and better oxygen levels in the blood.

    Mount Sinai is collaborating with the New York Blood Center and the New York State Department of Health’s Wadsworth Center laboratory in Albany, with guidance from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, and expects to begin implementing the treatment later this week.

    “We are hoping to identify patients who can provide the antibodies,” says Dennis S. Charney, MD, Anne and Joel Ehrenkranz Dean of the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, and President for Academic Affairs, Mount Sinai Health System. “We are at the front lines in fighting this pandemic and making discoveries that will help our patients.”

    Late last week, researchers at the Icahn School of Medicine, in collaboration with scientists in Australia and Finland, were among the first to create an antibody test that detects the disease’s antibodies in a person’s blood. Development of the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was led by Florian Krammer, PhD, Professor of Microbiology, in collaboration with Viviana A. Simon, MD, PhD, Professor of Microbiology and Medicine (Infectious Diseases). Dr. Krammer, a renowned influenza researcher, recently made this so-called recipe available to other laboratories around the world so they can replicate it during the pandemic. In January, his lab was quickly retooled to begin studying COVID-19.

    In addition to its widespread use in plasmapheresis, the antibody test will provide experts with an accurate infection rate so they can track the trajectory of the disease. The test will help identify health care workers who are already immune to the disease, who can work directly with infectious patients, and it can also help scientists understand how the human immune system reacts to the virus.

    The new assay uses recombinant or manufactured antigens from the spike protein on the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. That protein helps the virus enter cells, and it is a key target in the immune reaction against the virus, as the body creates antibodies that recognize the protein and seek to destroy the virus. The researchers also isolated the short piece of the spike protein called the receptor-binding domain (RBD), which the virus uses to attach to cells it tries to invade. The scientists then used cell lines to produce large quantities of the altered spike proteins and RBDs.

    According to Dr. Krammer and his co-authors, the assay is “sensitive and specific,” and allows for the screening and identification of COVID-19 in human plasma/serum as soon as three days after the onset of symptoms. The antibodies were derived from three patients who had the disease. The study’s control participants—who did not have COVID-19 but had other viruses, including the common cold—ranged in age from 20 to 70.

    Dr. Krammer says his preliminary findings also show that humans have no natural immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which would help explain why it spreads so quickly. But once the antibody sets in humans do become protected. He also says that at this early stage in the research, there is no evidence that people can lose their immunity and become re-infected.

    Read more stories about Mount Sinai and COVID-19

    • “FRIDAY, March 20, 2020 (HealthDay News) — As more people recover from COVID-19, that means more people should have antibodies against the virus. And it’s possible that blood donations from those survivors could help protect or treat other people, according to some infectious disease experts.

      The general notion is far from new. In the first half of the 20th century, doctors used “convalescent serum” in an effort to treat people during outbreaks of viral infections like measles, mumps and influenza — including during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.

      The principle is fairly simple: When a pathogen invades the body, the immune system produces antibodies that latch onto the enemy, marking it for destruction. After recovery, those antibodies remain circulating in a person’s blood, for anywhere from months to years.”

  69. Ireneusz Palmowski

    NEW YORK (from New York Governor Cuomo daily briefing):

    Apex of hospital need could be in 21 days from now in New York
    All hospitals need to increase capacity by 50%, some by 100%
    Need a total of 140,000 hospital beds. Currently have 53,000 (an additional 87,000 hospital beds are needed)
    Need a total of 40,000 ICU beds. Currently have 3,000, with 3,000 ventilators. An additional 37,000 ICU beds are needed
    Will use college dormitories, hotels, nursing homes, and all possible space by converting it to hospitals if needed in April
    138,376 people have been tested
    Schools will stay closed for an additional 2 weeks after April 1, to then reassess the situation and extend again if needed. 180 days requirement has been waived
    “This is not going to be a short deployment […] This is going to be weeks, and weeks, and weeks […] This is a rescue mission you are on, to save lives. […] You are living a moment in history that will change and forge character”

  70. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Look at the weather in the northeast US and you will understand that the virus will hit hard.

  71. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Why the need for ventilators?
    The medical machines that keep patients breathing are much in demand amid the respiratory illness’ outbreak, which in the most serious cases attacks the lungs.

    Louisiana’s governor said on Friday that New Orleans could run out of ventilators by 2 April.

    The Society of Critical Care Medicine has estimated that 960,000 intensive care patients will require a ventilator at some point during the US coronavirus outbreak.

    New York has requested 30,000 ventilators, but Mr Trump said during Friday’s briefing he felt that was a “high” estimate.


    Until a week ago, growth in Italian deaths lagged new admissions by about 3 days. That lag no longer exists. Unless I’m reading this wrongly, that means you now are likely to die the same day to get to hospital in Italy.

    A part of that may be that , at this point, you probably would not even want to see a hospital unless you were quite literally gasping for air.

    Sadly, it shows the hospital system is so overwhelmed that they are not not managing to keep people alive long enough for it to be visible in the data.

    EU destroyed Greece’s economy, it is now leaving Italy to choke to death in a health crisis. EU has ceased to have any reason to exist.

  73. nobodysknowledge

    Best IFR estimate is 0,29%.
    Of 10000 infected two weeks ago 29 dies.
    For everybody who dies there were 345 infected two weeks ago.
    So US had 588000 infected people two weeks ago.
    Statistics says US had 2183 infected cases two weeks ago.
    How many infected people will there be by now?

  74. stevenreincarnated

    There was a NY doctor on Tucker Carlson last night that had been prophylacting with chloroquine. He isn’t the only one I’m sure. It’s time they got that data together.

  75. Robert Clark

    It looks as though we are on the downward slope. We should thank the silent heroes. That would be the scientists designing the testing methods. They got the infected into isolation quickly. Also those doing the testing.

  76. So much uncertainty.

    How long will the outbreak last?
    How many will die?
    Will there be rationing leaving the futile to die unattended?
    Will 2020 all cause mortality actually be lower than in 2019?
    ( sequestering may be reducing not just COVID19, but flu as well ).
    Will there be a population boomlet from couples sequestered together?
    Will there be more domestic violence from couples sequestered together?
    Will our already socially distant populace remain ever more distant?
    What will the economic harm be?
    Will service sector jobs snap back?
    Will this be a lasting depression?
    Will the money printing lead to further wealth and income disparity?
    Will this disparity lead to further populism?
    Will this populism lead to WWIII?

    The Chinese curse, not the virus, but the adage.
    May you live in interesting times.

  77. Robert Clark

    I am a young member of the SILENT GENERATION. I hope future generations can have the opertunities we have had.

  78. I don’t know if this point has been raised or not but … a more useful question and its answer would be, what proportion of people who are infected need to go to hospital?

    This is the point of the lock-down exercise: ensuring that the health service for a country is not overwhelmed.

  79. Ireneusz Palmowski

    “It takes you five, seven, 10 days — usually more than one week to develop a robust antibody response,” said Isabella Eckerle, a virologist at Geneva Centre for Emerging Viral Diseases. “And the first week is the week when people shed the virus in the highest concentrations.”

  80. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
    Daily Data Summary
    The data in this report reflect events and activities as of March 27, 2020 at 4:00 PM.
    All data in this report are preliminary and subject to change as cases continue to be investigated.
    These data include cases in NYC residents and foreign residents treated in NYC facilities.

  81. Robert Clark

    There is only one number that counts at this time. That is the number of tests verses the number of positive. I found one earlier that disapeared. The President has one complaint to that he can make along with many others.
    WHY DIDN’t i get the scientific community started on a test a month earlier.
    It goes to the eye and makes a right!!!

    • Curious George

      Depends on what the test really does. Example: Of two Grand Princess passengers who tested positive for Covid-19, three have already died.

  82. President Donald Trump on Friday signed an executive order authorizing the Pentagon and Department of Homeland Security to call up reservists.

    From Thompson Reuters. More on military response at:

  83. Date the deluge of insults started:


    I give myself a 10.

  84. Robert Clark

    The Governor was asked today (How many of the new ventelators have you put to use? He said none. We don’t need them right now!).
    I believe the people have won the war. The test works fine.

  85. Robert Clark

    The Govener was New York

  86. Coronavirus harms the heart?

    Up next: liver function? Kidney function?

  87. Robert Clark

    On 3/1/2020 it was hysteria. On th 3/7/2020 it was reality. On 3/14/2020 it was we will begin see the results of the people’s cooperation with the doctor’s recomendations on 3/21/2020. It is not the number of tests that are positive, IT IS THE PERCENTAGE OF THE TESTS THAT ARE POSITIVE.
    Now the have the tests to save the world. KEEP OUR BORDERS SECURE!

  88. truth seeker

    Fine work, Nic. And like a Warmist climate model, it may well be right in predicting that, all things not considered, the predicted outcome should follow, i.e., the death rate increases will be minimal from Covid-19. The problem is that our eyes tell us that something is worse than that. Some hospitals are overwhelmed and many more are likely to follow, which will cause additional deaths, a possibility you concede, so that’s not a criticism.

    It is also likely that, as in the case of a Warmist climate model, the data on which you base your predictions, as well as the moving parts, are flawed. The Warmist uses temperature data that is inadequate and has been manipulated, assumes CO2 sensitivities and feedbacks that are likely wrong but are uncertain at best, and ignores factors like natural variability that are likely important, but that he does not understand and therefore can’t model.

    In your case, the Diamond Princess sample size of 500-700 is not bad, and as you say, may be the best we have at the moment, but it may not be large enough to do the job. Moreover, there are factors that seem to make this disease worse than the model would suggest, i.e. it’s not fit for use. For whatever reason, in the real world, a great many more people get very sick when exposed to Covid-19 and need hospitalization than in a typical flu season. It may be that the people on the ship were better cared for than the gen pop, or perhaps their co-morbidities weren’t representative, or perhaps the observation time period should have been lengthened; perhaps the test sensitivity and/or specificity result in a margin of error that is material to your results.

    Look, I may be wrong and am just being influenced by the MSM blasting me with gory pics of hospitals in chaos, but we shall see in the coming weeks if the Cuomo predictions of disaster or the Trump predictions of a lovely Easter Egg hunt on the White House lawn will prevail. In any event, I thought it appropriate to bringing us back to the issue that brought all of us together in the first place.

  89. Scott Schulte


  90. I can only find one mention of convalescent serum here, and I find the paucity of it’s discussion absolutely baffling. It is also known as “Antiserum”:

    Why this is not a central plank of the measures taken to mitigate and control this pandemic I simply cannot understand. Given that it will take time to develop a suitable active vaccine, this represents a passive vaccine that can lead to herd immunity. But I hear no discussion of it from epidemiologists or mainstream media.

    There is no reason to think it would be less effective in CV19 than in other viral epidemics, and it appears to have been used in China effectively, with the Chinese sending 90 tons of plasma to Italy to help with their fight. The studies (not robustly scientific but nonetheless) show it to be between 75% and 80% effective at reducing mortality.

    Why would you not use this aggressively to mitigate spread and increase herd immunity? For each person that recovers from what for most people is a mild infection, a blood donation could protect or cure 2 other people. And as the disease proliferates, so does the number of potential donors, until a large negative feedback is produced and ultimately herd immunity.

    Even it’s crudest form it is known to be effective. Why is this not being discussed? I have my theories, but people are talking about anti-virals like chloroquine which may or may not be useful, but Antiserum is proven with other virus’s and there is no reason to think it would not be effective with this one.

    There is also evidence to suggest that Vitamin D is prophylactic and mitigates the lethal effect of the virus in some people; namely an over reaction of the immune system:

    I suspect that will be of great interest to a lot of people here.

  91. Attached is the link to the Imperial College (Dr. Neil Ferguson) report from mid-March. Note Table 4. I do not know what was initially said by Dr F. regarding the “expected” deaths, but the report never supported the 550,000 in GB and 2,200,000 in the USA. That was the “we do nothing” estimate. Table 4 includes expected impacts from various “Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions”. Many reasonable actions would have prevented many deaths without destroying businesses and lives per the report.

    It is the we do nothing number that the breathless alarmism and associated actions have been based upon though.

  92. Link is available from this article…not sure why it did what it did in my previous comment.

  93. Be it resolved, we are making high-stakes decisions about the COVID-19 pandemic without reliable data
    John Ioannidis
    Sten Vermund

  94. We’ll give you an 8 on your virus promotion efforts for today, JCH. That doesn’t look good for Gov. Fredo and Mayor De Blasio. They should think about deploying some of the ventilators they got from the feds that they still have in storage. Maybe they are waiting for the Big White hospital ship sent by the Big Orange Fella, to save their behinds. Meanwhile, in Rhode Island the authorities are hunting house-to-house for New Yorkers who are fleeing to less infected parts of the country. Badly stricken New Orleans doesn’t have to worry about New Yorkers coming down there, until next Mardi Gras. It’s ironic that Gov. Fredo boasted that NY has more infections and deaths, because NY is more welcoming than the rest of the country.

  95. Nic, that is a superb discussion! Thank you.
    Next will be a discussion of the reliability of the data so far available. Especially from China and Russia.

  96. UK-Weather Lass-In-Earnest

    Mind boggling statistical diarrhoea being visited upon us from all and sundry which appears to illustrate that this Coronavirus hits with initial high energy, spreads very effectively, and can kill (with or without assistance). This always happens when you are looking for the more sensationalising and the superficially frightening aspects of any threat.

    I remember watching a lecture on epidemiology years ago and the amusement created among the audience when the lecturer said there is a lot of money to be made out of nasty bugs, their curses and cures. There cannot be much nastier bugs than politicians but has anyone found a cure for their curses yet?

  97. nobodysknowledge

    climategrog, for USA: “I see about 4d doubling time now.”
    I think these numbers are wrong. The last 14 days the doubling time for deaths has been about 2,5 days, and it gets a little bit faster the last week. This also shows that the infection fatality rate, IFR, is bigger than the world`s average of about 0,3%. The US rate of doubling is very close to Italy 18 days ago. Italy is now down on a doubling of 1 week.

    • nobodysknowledge

      I use the Oxford study on IFR of 0,29%.
      A simple calculation of US infections would then be, assuming that doubling time of infections is the same as doubling time of deaths:
      Cumulative deaths 28th of March, 2229. 1 death means 345 infected pr 14th of March. 769000 infected by then. Quadrupling every 5th day gives: 3 million infected by 3th of April, and 12 million infected by 8th of April, and 48 million infected by 13th of April. Should give 139000 deaths by 27th of April. We should hope that US has soon reached maximum doubling time.

  98. Italy Population 60,000,000

    March 13 Cases 17,660
    Deaths 1,266
    March 29 Cases 92,472
    Deaths 10,023

    India Population 1,300,000,000

    March 13 Cases 82
    Deaths 1
    March 29 Cases 987
    Deaths 25

    Russia Population 146,000,000

    March 13 Cases 45
    Deaths 0
    March 29 Cases 1534
    Deaths 8
    The Lombardy Region of Italy, with a population of 10,000,000, has accounted for 6,000 of the 10,023 deaths in Italy.

    • Now it’s spreading in Italy’s south, sustaining the virus growth in that country.

      • Hi Phil

        I’m without explanation for the apparent small effect on India, even after a couple of months in this open society. Air travel from affected countries must be voluminous. There is no reason to believe the statistics are being suppressed. The population density in their urban areas is like NYC on steroids, (I saw a video of rush hour in Delhi with tens of thousands crushed in lines waiting for transportation home-Social distancing there is a dream), and yet an explosion of cases and deaths has not occurred. We certainly should wait until later this year to conclude anything, but at this point it’s a mystery why the second most populous country has not had the experience of other countries, many with population bases a tiny fraction of India.

      • Small effect India.


        Or more likely it hasn’t really hit yet and/or bad data.

      • One other thing. Hot spots seem to be between 30-50 degrees latitude. India is mostly below.

    • Stuff I see neighbors frequently doing:

      1. Going to Target to buy bagels. Parade of cars going shopping.
      2. Maids. Everyday I see maids going in and out of houses. Typhoid Maidy.
      3. Congregating in groups outdoors to talk. Way too close together.
      4. Appliance repairmen going into houses.
      5. Remodeling projects still ongoing. Construction workers going in and out.
      6. Group meetings, business or church or family.
      7. Home healthcare workers going in and out wearing inadequate PPE.
      8. Wealthy neighborhood, they think this is a joke.

      Sieve. It is not holding water. Completely schizophrenic messaging out of the White House and the CDC, which appears to think its job is to cheerlead with lies the reelection of woefully incompetent and dangerous President:

      • Look at the effect of 14d of restricted movement in France and see whether you want to trash the economy in the hope of an effect that is not measurable.

        If you could keep your #resistance crap out of your comments at a time like this , it may be a good idea.

      • You are a sick man, zero.

      • Compared to what?
        How are the EU countries leaders, and UK, doing compared with the efforts of our primitive schizophrenic POTUS. Those smart people over there do have enlightened modern socialized medicine regimes to work with, while our guy has to deal with for profit rapacious healthcare providers, who don’t care whether folks live or die, as long as they get paid. Right, zero?

        According to my rough observations and ballpark calculations:

        EU+UK population 513 million corona virus deaths 19,000

        US population 330 million 2,400

        Just eyeballing that , I would say our Big Orange Fella is doing pretty well compared to those stable geniuses in Europe, with their vaunted socialized medicine

      • JCH, You need to get some psychological counseling. Brix so far as I can see is supported by the facts and data.

        You keep posting fake news too such as calling Fox “killer Fox.” Everyone including DeBlasio and his health commissioner were strongly downplaying this until March 5. A lot of this was due to disinformation out of China whose terrible government is using this as a propaganda tool. Blame those who deserve it.

        The fact of the matter is that 60 million people die every year in the world. A million excess deaths is sad but not a catastrophe. The vast majority of those excess deaths will be amoung those whose life expectancy was short under normal circumstances.

        So far this year in Italy there has been a spike in overall mortality but its not as big as the spike in 2016-17 flu season. Italy seems to have a significantly slowing infection and death curve. In Europe generally in 2017-18 flu season there were perhaps 120,000 excess deaths in the Euromomo monitoring network. Roughly 10,000 per week for 12 weeks. In week 12 of 2020 mortality in Europe is actually below the expected level and the excess deaths this flu season are perhaps an order of magnitude lower than previous years.

      • dpy,
        Maybe he will feel better when he gets his Trump check. It’s practically in the mail.

        But his story has me starting to worry about the consequences of wealthy people parading in their expensive cars over to Target to buy bagels. What’s that all about? Is zero implying something about the ethnicity of those wealthy people that makes them so irresponsible?

      • That zero won’t answer me. Somebody he does not fear ask him if his wealthy neighbors parading around in their fancy cars are having lox and cream cheese with those Target store bagels. Dog whistle?


        And Dr. Curry, if I respond in kind it gets moderated. Leaving up comments that suggest I need psychological counseling is disgusting.

      • jungletrunks

        JCH, Clues. Perhaps you should more discerning.

      • Yes, Well Fauci also published a paper saying the fatality rate was 1%. According to Nic’s analysis its an order of magnitude less. No one knows what the outcome will be. He is guessing.

  99. Robert Clark
    this is supposed to be the number of new cases reported in the us.

    • Robert Clark

      They say the last 11 days are not accurate. Maybe they can not believe we did that good. Over the next two weeks the testing will go up dramatically. We need to keep testing to get all in isolation possible. It will also show we did that good.

      Illnesses that began during this time may not yet be reported**
      03/16/2020 03/26/2020

  100. Road Map to Reopen America

    Evidently, a global depression can save lives. ( )

    Is it worth it?

    • Turbulent Eddie: Is it worth it?

      One day we’ll look back and say something along the lines of: “We kept the total count of deaths below 6,000 [insert your favorite number], and the net cost to the country was $1.5T net reduction in wealth.”

      • CV has already saved lives while at the same time claiming livelihoods:

      • That’s just as I predicted a few days ago. The actions taken to slow the spread of cv will slow the spread of other diseases, including seasonal flu that was killing people at the rate of a 4-5000 a month. Add in auto accidents, workplace accidents, etc. etc. Seems likely more lives saved from other causes, than from cv. So we should maybe keep this going and save everybody, eventually.

  101. jungletrunks

    Delivery of 5,000 URNS to a single funeral home in coronavirus epicentre Wuhan raises fears China is underplaying nation’s official 3,300 death toll.

    Guess China avoids the risk of satellite photos showing mysterious trenches around large cities by going the cremation route. It’s more sanitary to boot.

    • People are suckers.

      • jungletrunks

        I was pretty sure you would be the first here to protect China’s virtue.

      • He has already been referred for counseling. Not much more we can do, but shake our heads and hope that he gets help.

      • Hey Don,

        You OK?

        USA seems bang on track to get the very worst dose of this anywhere in the developed world.

        Normally you’re full of s***, but aware that you’re doing it.

        Now, you seem right off the deep end.

        It’s out of character. I’m concerned for you.

      • I think VTG you are unfamiliar with the facts on the ground. The US shows a very high case number because of the very strong ramping up of testing. Our fatality rate is about the lowest anywhere however. If the initial reports about the effectiveness of existing medications, things could get a lot better very quickly.

      • >. If the initial reports about the effectiveness of existing medications, things could get a lot better very quickly.

        This is what science looks like.

      • verytallguy: USA seems bang on track to get the very worst dose of this anywhere in the developed world.

        Not on present data: Europe is harder hit than the US, at least as measured in deaths per capita.

      • dpy

        If the initial reports about the effectiveness of existing medications, things could get a lot better very quickly

        And if the moon were made of green cheese, all the mice in space would be happy.

      • matthewmarler

        Not on present data: Europe is harder hit than the US, at least as measured in deaths per capita.

        You’ll note that I used the phrase “on track to…”, not “already has”

        When a country’s leader is ostentatiously refusing to take the measures necessary to halt the virus, you know they’re in trouble.

        Best wishes over there. I hope you can turn things around.

    • You must have missed it, verytrollguy:

      EU+UK population 513 million corona virus deaths 19,000

      US population 330 million corona virus deaths 2,400

      The EU is supposed to be the intellectually and morally superior socialist pinnacle of taking care of folks, in the whole World. Can you do the math on this? Like anonymous nominal American, JCH, you our nominal aussie ally and friend, seem to be betting/hoping that the U.S., doesn’t do well against this deadly scourge. Is it the Big Orange Fella? We don’t need more of that morbid politically motivated undermining around here. You need to check yourself. You are on the wrong side.

      • Don

        There is no integrated health system in the EU. Each country has their own so I am not sure it would be relevant to lump all the countries together and testing numbers in each are also very different.

        Different countries are faring in very different ways. The health systems on the continent are on the whole pretty good with some being exceptional. The differences come as to where on the curve the countries are but most specifically its down to the nature of their society. The figures for the EU are very skewed by Spain and Italy.

        The Spanish and Italians are highly tactile, older people smoke heavily, many of the very old have numerous serious health problems and ironically would not be alive if the health systems were not so good in the first place. Even 20 years sago the equivalent of this very old cohort with numerous pre existing serious illnesses would not have existed .

        In the north of Italy flats tend to be small because of prices and the region is one of the most polluted in Europe. Add in that there are many inter-generational families living together whereby the virus can readily mix.

        The lock down is by no means total as many of the young are meeting up clandestinely as they are so gregarious and they come back to the family flat, presumably hug and kiss their grannies and voila the virus is reintroduced. assuming it ever went away in the first place, as the best way to infect everyone is surely to lock them all up together.

        On the whole Anglo sphere countries tend to be more reticent with a limited amount of the tactile nature of some other nations. For good or ill fewer of us tend to live with their extended families as we like our space and privacy.

        Let us hope that America emerges from this as still the worlds only superpower as the alternative is too nightmarish to consider. China is not our friend. With my best wishes to you and your family


      • Oh, hi Don.

        Didn’t see your response as it wasn’t in line.

        As I said to Matthew upthread:

        You’ll note that I used the phrase “on track to…”, not “already has”

        When a country’s leader is ostentatiously refusing to take the measures necessary to halt the virus, you know they’re in trouble.

        Best wishes over there. I hope you can turn things around.

        In all seriousness, I really do, you look to be headed for a very bad place indeed right now. Good luck.

      • There is no integrated health system in the EU. Each country has their own . I am not sure it would be relevant to lump all the countries together. THe number of test and cases all vary widely country by country.

        Different countries are faring in very different ways. The health systems are on the whole pretty good with some being exceptional. The differences come as to where on the curve the countries are but most specifically its down to the nature of their society. The figures for deaths in the EU are very skewed by Spain and Italy as they are by NY for America..

        The Spanish and Italians are highly tactile, older people smoke heavily, many of the very old have numerous serious health problems and ironically would not be alive if the health systems were not so good in the first place. Even 20 years ago the equivalent of this very old cohort with numerous pre existing serious illnesses would not have existed .

        In the north of Italy flats tend to be small because of prices and the region is one of the most polluted in Europe. Add in that there are many inter-generational families living together whereby the virus can readily mix.

        The lock down is by no means total as many of the young are meeting up clandestinely as they are so gregarious and they come back to the family flat, presumably hug and kiss their grannies and voila the virus is reintroduced. assuming it ever went away in the first place as the best way to infect everyone is surely to lock them all up together.

        On the whole Anglo sphere countries tend to be more reticent with a limited amount of the tactile nature of some other nations. For good or ill fewer of us tend to live with their extended families as we like our space and privacy. Let us hope that America emerges from this as still the worlds only superpower as the alternative is too nightmarish to consider. China is not our friend. My best wishes to you.


      • China is not our enemy.

      • Interesting that you still continue to believe social norms and demographics dictate different rates of growth between UK and Italy/Spain, even though the UK death curve almost exactly superimposes on those countries.

        I guess some beliefs are just impervious to facts.

      • jch

        I did not say they were our enemies. I said they were not our friends.


      • the taller than average guy

        every time I reply to either the one beginning with J or the one beginning with D the reply disappears so I don’t know if it is me or them being moderated so I am sorry for addressing you so obliquely

        In order to write my articles about historical climate I like to read a lot of material that provides background and context, which often contains unexpected climate references and insights. Consequently I thought this observation by Ian Mortimer was relevant to today’s Covid 19 pandemic, as described in his excellent, densely researched and well referenced book ‘The Time Travellers Guide to Medieval England.’

        “There are myriad other diseases in medieval England which you may end up catching. Many of them will cease to exist before the advent of the modern world. Several ailments described by the chronicler Henry Knighton do not correspond with anything known to modern medical science. Similarly there are afflictions such as ‘Styche’ and ‘Ipydyme’ which have no modern equivalent. Some diseases have simply become less common; malaria is endemic in marshy area, such as Romney Marsh in Kent and the fens of Lincolnshire and Norfolk.

        On the other hand fourteenth century England is free from a number of diseases which affect us in later centuries; you will not find cholera or syphilis. In some cases this is due to barriers of travel. In others it is because our vulnerability to specific infections alters with our living conditions. Diseases change as they circulate around the pool of humanity. Rodent carriers of disease are replaced by different rodents carrying different diseases. Certain illnesses which are initially lethal grow progressively less dangerous as the decades go by.”

        So ailments change as they ‘circulate round the pool of humanity’ and time and geography alters. Consequently we should not be surprised in the modern world that different groups of humanity should react differently to Covid19, which will become modified by the way people live , their health record-past and current, their lifestyle choices which might encompass obesity, smoking and excessive drinking, their ability to access good medical services, natural immunities, their personal robustness, age profile, their diet etc.

        So it should be natural that different countries and communities within those countries and individuals within those communities will have different outcomes to such conditions as Covid19. History tells us that we are not all destined to follow the path of Italy and Spain for example .

        One over-riding lesson from reading such books as ‘The Time Travellers Guide” is that this day and age is the best in history for ordinary people to live in; that we are currently at the peak of human civilisation and any action by govt. that deliberately or inadvertently pushes us back to the living and health conditions of pre industrial-let alone medieval- times, should be strongly resisted.

        LP Hartley wrote; “The past is a foreign country, they do things differently there.” We can surely do an awful lot of things better than we currently do, for example with the environment and curbing excesses in consumption of goods and foods. However, Hartley’s phrase and Mortimer’s insights should remind us that the past was not some Arcadian idyll, and we should not want to retreat from our current levels of health and prosperity, longevity and freedoms, but enhance them in a responsible fashion, whilst helping other countries less fortunate than ours to similarly advance


      • verytrollguy says:

        “When a country’s leader is ostentatiously refusing to take the measures necessary to halt the virus, you know they’re in trouble.”

        That is politically motivated morbid claptrap. You should stop with that foolishness.

        EU+UK population 513 million corona virus deaths 19,000

        US population 330 million corona virus deaths 2,400

        This has been toned down quite a bit to get through the filter. I am really starting to dislike you.

      • The Red China thugocracy is the enemy of its own people and the enemy of the World. They caused this pandemic and now they are trying to profit from it by selling the World defective tests and medical supplies. They are lying about their handling of the Red Chinese Wuhan Bat Soup virus, the scope of its effect on China and trying to blame it on U.S. military visitors to Wuhan. Google it. too many links

      • tony,
        Most of the countries in the EU, and UK etc. have a higher deaths to population number than the U.S. at 8 per million. Starting with the obvious:
        Italy 192
        Spain 57
        France 40
        UK 21
        Switz 40
        Belgium 44
        Neth 50
        Austria 12
        Portugal 14
        Sweden 14
        Norway 6 good for them
        Czechia 2 ” ” ” ”
        Poland 0.7
        Romania 2
        Lux 35

        According to verytrollguy, with few exceptions most of the leaders running the Most Enlightened and Well Run Continent of Europe are ostentatiously refusing to take the measures necessary to halt the virus.

      • Don,

        You’ve not read my post very well. It’s understandable, you do seem rather stressed right now.

        I’ll try to help you.

        Firstly, I commented on the trajectory, not current state of the disease. The USA seems on a rapid trajectory and seems not to be enforcing strict distancing. Hence my concern.

        Secondly, the ostentatious remark refers to Trump’s very obvious public disavowal of distancing in his appearances. Notably but by no means exclusively to his behaviour whilst signing off the rescue bill or whatever it’s called. If the leader of the country isn’t committed to it, it will be very difficult to convince the nation, I fear.

        I how that clarifies for you, and I do wish you all well. It’s not looking good.

      • Matthew R Marler

        verytallguy: When a country’s leader is ostentatiously refusing to take the measures necessary to halt the virus, you know they’re in trouble.

        What country is that? What leader is that? What measures are those? Be specific.

        You want Federal restrictions on interstate driving, as FL and RI are enacting?

        In the U.S., the Constitution reserves the authority over citizen’s health and safety to the States and to the People — it’s in the oft-forgotten 9th and 10th Amendments in the Bill of Rights, and confirmed in court decisions. Most “States” and “People” have stepped up to the challenges. Pres Trump has respected the limitations on Presidential Authority, and has backed efforts in the private sector to produce new devices, and has backed the Governors when requested by them to do so. Military assets have been deployed (hospital ships, field hospitals); some states have called up their National Guard — a state right. He urged the FDA to fast track approval for trials of hydroxychloroquine, and urged that it be used more widely (an idea first mocked by Fauci, then supported by Fauci.) When it was useful, he asserted power under Federal law to direct supplies to where they are most needed, and ordered GM to manufacture ventilators, which they were already preparing to do. He ordered ventilators sent to New York, where they have been added to the stockpile. His first official act in this crisis was to restrict travel from China, which got him opprobrium from some in the US, but was definitely superior to the late response of Italy.

        The real failure of leadership is the Chinese Communist Party and its Secretary Xi Jinping, which suppressed information that might have been useful to the citizens, then imposed a martial law. Almost as bad was the govt of Italy which, after Pres Trump restricted travel from China, urged its citizens to embrace Chinese.

        As to heading toward the worst disaster of the developed nations, there is no evidence to support that. Most Americans cut back on travel plans, conventions and such before most Europeans; and started staying in place before most Europeans. In the US, 98.3% of people who test positive for SARS CoV-2 survive, a higher percentage than most developed countries.

        Somewhat behind the ball in the US were the bureaucratic inertia of the FDA and CDC; NY Mayor de Blasio; and some others.

      • People who are addicted to the high they get from Trump can’t see past their next fix.

        It’s true that graphed at “per million” the rate of death in the US is relatively low. But obviously that rate is changing over time as the spread increases, and the rate of cases in the US is growing uniquely fast, and some people want Trump to get credit for keeping the pandemic under control as he claims to have done. If you want to say he’s responsibke for the low death rate (at this point in time) then you have to hold him responsible for the uniquely rapid growth rate of cases. And you’ll have to hold tie him to the death rate long term.

        For some people, if Trump says he’s got it under control, it must be so. It’s a religious thing – like a cult.

      • China certainly is not one of our a…..e buddies. How about an adversary with a 100 year plan to displace us as the dominant global economic power. Comrade Nikita, as he pounded his shoe at his UN desk, said he wanted to bury us. At the time, some took it to mean under nuclear infused rubble. Nah, he said, I just mean to bury you economically.

        I don’t see much difference between what the K man wanted and what the Chinese have in mind.

      • Don

        I made no comment about America and its success in fighting CV. I was merely pointing out that the individual countries of Europe have their own health care systems and that combining them doesn’t show who have the biggest problems and who seem to be coping better.

        NY is not doing well but it should not be seen as representative of all, America. Each state and each country have their own characteristics and ways of living and they will all impact as to how CV affects them.

        Generally the more space you have and the more reserved you are the more likely you are to have low rates of infection.

        The problems arise when govts herd people into their houses and tell them not to go out, in some inexplicable belief that those infected won’t pass it on to the family member sitting on the couch next to them.


      • Sorry, tony. Not intended to imply that you were doing that. Just replied to your general comments to make a specific point.

      • Steven Mosher

        ‘US population 330 million corona virus deaths 2,400″

        never post numbers during an exponential explosion.
        so funny on WUWT when cases were at 68 and deaths were 0,
        nobody saw what was coming.

        ya got no idea where this will end up.

        the best science has is informed guesses.

        today 6,095

      • Don Monfort

        So why are you telling me what the number is today? I have stated where I think it will be in May. I am guessing like everybody else. Doesn’t cost me anything. We will see. If I am wrong, you can sue me.

      • Don Monfort

        And I didn’t say it ended there. It was a comparison to other countries that got in the game at the same time. Don’t you see the difference? What’s happened to you, Steven?

        EU+UK population 513 million corona virus deaths 19,000

        US population 330 million corona virus deaths 2,400

      • Steven Mosher

        hey don

        USA : 7,385
        games not over yet.

      • Steven Mosher

        Donny boy

        ‘It was a comparison to other countries that got in the game at the same time.”

        no, that comparison would be USA versus Korea. 1st death
        same day.

        Greetings from Seoul!

      • Don Monfort

        Who said the game is over? We are still looking good compared with the EU+UK. Let’s try to stay on the same cricket field, stevieboy. And Korea is a ringer. Leave them out of it.

        The game started, when the first Red China Wuhan Bat Virus propagator left Red China. Where did he or she go? We don’t know. Could have gone anywhere on earth, so we are all starting together. Don’t try to make rules up as we go along. That’s not what we expect from you.

        How many deaths do we have to record on a daily average basis for me to lose come May 1, stevieboy? I know there are several people here rooting for the virus and I want to keep them updated.

      • Don Monfort

        My reply got stuck in filter. I am going to try it in parts to see what triggers the thing to what it does:

        Who said the game is over? We are still looking good compared with the EU+UK. Let’s try to stay on the same cricket field, stevieboy. And Korea is a ringer. Leave them out of it.

      • Don Monfort

        My comment got stuck in the filter. Tried just a part of it, that got stuck. Anyway, you will find out how wrong your are if Judith finds it and releases.

        Just one point now, Korea isn’t in the game. You don’t get to run in ringers.

    • Don, honestly, you’ve lost it completely.

      To European right now, seeing a crowded room is unthinkable.

      To see the leader of a nation in a crowd happily handing out objects – well, we understand now where that kind of behaviour ends. Lonely deaths in infection wards and morgues unable to cope.

      (Plus the Aussie thing?? No idea what that’s about)

      Honestly, we hope you get your act together. But it doesn’t look good.

    • Trump’s idea of a good job now is 100-200K dead. How the goalposts have shifted from “close to zero”. Give him another week or two and he’ll be congratulating himself on keeping the number under a million.

    • James

      Have you got a reference for that number and is it the same one that shows that Trump would think that was a ‘good job’? Thanks


    • James Cross: Trump’s idea of a good job now is 100-200K dead. How the goalposts have shifted from “close to zero”.

      No doubt Trump was wrong on “close to 0”. If you are keeping score, that is a point against.

      Anthony Fauci’s warning of possibly 100,000 – 200,000 deaths was assuming no protective actions were taken, as he said in an interview.

  102. Ireneusz Palmowski

    A document by the Carlos III public health institute which EL PAÍS has seen took recent civil registry death records and compared them with the average number of deaths in Spain’s regions since 2008, finding significant surges in deaths in Madrid, Castilla-La Mancha and Castilla y León during this month of March. Yet many of those deaths, even when coronavirus symptoms were present, did not get added to the national tally because no formal test was ever conducted on the victims.

    Regional governments only notify the Health Ministry about a coronavirus death if the patient was previously tested and the test came back positive, said two health officials at two regional governments. “This leaves out many people who died in residences or in their own homes, and who were never tested,” said one of these sources.

    This means that the figures offered daily by Simón, the health emergency coordination chief, are only providing a partial picture of the true extent of the pandemic.


    There is a slight reduction in the doubling time of new reported cases in France. However, this reduction started at least 2 days BEFORE the restrictions came into force on 17th March 2020.

    Any attribution of this improvement to restricted movement would require at least 3 days ( median 5d ) incubation after restrictions before the effects could be seen.

    Are we all in the process of destroying our economies for nothing ?!!

    • Reported cases do not means much, at least in France. Appart from Germany maybe, I do not think any European country is close to the correct number of infected in their reports, they are not testing enough, by far.
      By not close, I mean the wrong order of magnitude…

      • UK-Weather Lass-In-Earnest

        By not close, I mean the wrong order of magnitude…gkai

        The more I read about ‘the stats’ in most of the EU and UK the more inclined I am to believe in magnitudes when talking about a large and significant ‘infected but not tested’ population who have been made largely irrelevant by regimes unprepared for anything other than a modest ‘flu season with normal numbers of deaths. Germany has managed to test more comprehensively – why not the others?

      • UK Weather Lass

        Do you believe the number of deaths from this virus will far exceed those of a bad flu season?

        Also do please remember that those who die ‘with’ corona virus-the catch all used at present-is not the same as those who died OF cv of whom- according to Prof Ferguson- up to two thirds would have died anyway this season of other existing illnesses.

        Ironically the roll of the dice of fate will mean some who would have died of flu won’t, some who would have been killed in car accidents won’t, some who would have died in other ways won’t, because they are restricted in their movements. The trouble is that those spared will never know


      • UK-Weather Lass-In-Earnest

        Do you believe the number of deaths from this virus will far exceed those of a bad flu season? … tonyb

        Would this Covid-19 turned out differently had it been treated as a bad ‘flu season? Who knows?

        If large numbers of people have been infected and asymptomatic or mild then that would influence public opinion about the true nature of Covid-19 and perhaps give an altogether more reflective purpose to the ‘stats’ and ‘measures taken to contain’ without the hysteria, I have nothing against the principled lock down and social distancing but it is the elasticity of length (a month to start with, but now stretched to 3 or even 6 months) that bothers me.

        I will have been self isolated for four weeks this Thursday. It is my way of saying I don’t want to be a burden upon the NHS. I only go out to shop two or three times per week (which is also my principle exercise as its a long walk there and back), and it doesn’t get any easier to have less social contact than you are used to unless there is a proper ‘release date’ to aim for. It gets even more frustrating to arrive at shops which have been ransacked and where safe distancing is logistically almost impossible because there isn’t a set time when it is your turn to buy only what you really need for the next few days.

        I just get the feeling that the response has been reactionary rather than carefully nuanced, thought through and intelligently pragmatic. The Covid-19 ‘response’ seems to share a familiarity with that other existential crisis we had to hysterically respond to ‘right now’ with not a sensible plan in sight.

      • Depend what you mean by bad flu…1918-bad?
        I don’t think it will be that bad, but it will be far worse than a normal flu… The simple fact that hospitals are overwhelmed is telling, s they have to absorb normal or even bad flu season…
        Let’s be optimistic and assume 0.3% death and 30% infection rate in Europe…450 millions people, so 450000 deaths. That’s the lower bound imho, upper bound would be 50% infection and 2% at rate, a ten times increase about 4 millions deaths.

      • GKAI

        No, I mean in recent years and I am talking about the circumstances of the UK.

        The average over the last 5 years here has been 17000 flu deaths a year. The average disguises some very low years and the high years of 2014 with 48000 deaths and 2017 with 28000 deaths

        Because of the weather and that the vulnerable older group have been distancing themselves since January this is likely to be a low year. I do not expect combined corona virus and flu deaths here to be any higher than that worst year.

        Set against that will be many who won’t die from car accidents etc etc because they are stuck indoors.

        In the UK we have some 600,000 deaths a year of which the govt terms 140,000 as ‘avoidable.’ The ‘excess winter mortality rates’ also vary considerably ranging from 30000 to 80000 a year, often caused by people not being able to keep their homes warm..

        If we were serious about saving lives we should start with some of the shocking figures above which wouldn’t put the country and its economy into lockdown


      • No, I mean in recent years and I am talking about the circumstances of the UK only. Each country in the EU will be different.

        The average over the last 5 years here has been 17000 flu deaths a year. The average disguises some very low years and the high years of 2014 with 48000 deaths and 2017 with 28000 deaths

        Because of the weather and that the vulnerable older group have been distancing themselves since January, this is likely to be a low year for flu deaths. I do not expect combined corona virus and flu deaths here to be any higher than that worst year for flu.

        Set against that will be many who won’t die from car accidents etc etc because they are stuck indoors.

        In the UK we have some 600,000 deaths a year of which the govt terms 140,000 as ‘avoidable.’ The ‘excess winter mortality rates’ also vary considerably ranging from 30000 to 80000 a year, often caused by people not being able to keep their homes warm..

        If we were serious about saving lives we should start with some of the shocking figures above which wouldn’t put the country and its economy into lockdown


      • If you look at my estimates, i would say a total of 0.3% in the end… For UK, this would be around 200000 deaths.
        Visible in the year statistics, it would be a bad year and clearly from covid 19, but in term of pure number, not a catastrophe. Worst case scenario (something like 1%) is catastrophic, doubling the death is awful.
        In term of impression, even my average scenario is very bad if this happen in a few months, cause hospital will be overwhelmed and how people will react is difficult to predict.
        But you are right, it’s also difficult to say how people will react to the type of lockdown we have in most of Europe, if it last for multiple months. After 2 weeks it’s already getting tenser, on one hand you have symbolic feel good gestures but you also have more and more complaints about police abuse. After 1 month i think too many people in poor lockdown conditions will become really nervous and the good will have vanished.
        My hope is that in 1 month, general testing will have increased and number of people detected with antibodies (and thus immune) so that lockdown can be relaxed for mosts.

    • Why do you think the rate of doubling started dropping if not because of behavioral changes? If behavioral changes slowed the rate of doubling, why wouldn’t you think that the continued reduction in rate of doubling was due to even more dramatic behavioral changes?

      People want to point to outcomes that happened AFTER policy changes, and then argue that the changes were irrelevant to the outcomes.

      It’s why public health policy people say they can’t win. If the outcomes are bad people say they should have done more and if the outcomes are good people say they did too much.

    • climategrog: However, this reduction started at least 2 days BEFORE the restrictions came into force on 17th March 2020.

      Maybe the French, like the Americans, started restricting their travel before the government told them to.

  104. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Lack of testing of quarantined people puts their health at risk, because even the asymptomatic course of the disease can cause lung changes that can be seen when scanning.

  105. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Officially, Chinese authorities have reported over 2,000 deaths in Wuhan, where the virus first emerged. However, experts and locals have long been skeptical of China’s official figures, in light of Beijing’s initial coverup of the outbreak; Wuhan’s overstretched health system, which meant that many people had been unable to receive testing and treatment; and several changes to the way infections were officially counted.

  106. Ireneusz Palmowski

    In a 2004 study of the coronavirus that causes sars, a cousin of the one that causes covid-19, a team from Hong Kong found that a higher initial load of virus—measured in the nasopharynx, the cavity in the deep part of your throat above your palate—was correlated with a more severe respiratory illness. Nearly all the sars patients who came in initially with a low or undetectable level of virus in the nasopharynx were found at a two-month follow-up to be still alive. Those with the highest level had a twenty- to forty-per-cent mortality rate. This pattern held true regardless of a patient’s age, underlying conditions, and the like. Research into another acute viral illness, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, reached a similar conclusion: the more virus you had at the start, the more likely you were to die.

  107. Peculiar side effect of this outbreak is that mortality in the US is well below the normal.

    While the CDC data lags by several weeks, they report the 2020 weekly death rate for the US is only 48,000 for the week ending March 7th, while the norm is about 55,000.
    Are people being much more cautious perhaps?

  108. None of you have a clue. You don’t know that if we just let the virus run its course, the ensuing panic and chaos from millions of deaths and worthless hospitals wouldn’t cost more than the lock down. What a bunch of whiners.

    • Well, I don’t agree with the “whiners” pejorative. Imo, it’s more likely that they filter the situation through an ideological filter than that they’re “whiners.”

      But yes, you’re right about what they don’t know (even though they’re sure that they do know)

  109. Reblogged this on Not The Grub Street Journal and commented: The WHO and the Global Loss of Health Freedom 27 March 2020 Scientific Facts:Bill Gates and Dr Seth Berkley Gavi, outline how they plan to save us all. #CovidPurpose The real Culprits, heroes or zeroes. #WuhanandhisDog #CoronaVaccine #VaccinationCovid19 #ElectroChemistryCovid19 Corona Virus cover story for electromagnetic control Grid pt2 . @financialeyes @JoeBlob20 @ClarkeMicah @2013Boodicca #BoycottGoogle

  110. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The Chinese cheated from the beginning. The number of deaths in Wuhan certainly exceeds 40,000. If we take into account the decrease in the number of mobile subscribers in Wuhan, the number of deaths may be even several times higher.

  111. Interesting, sez use a face mask:*1ENrdC4tV-HrMWdaeSrjyQ.png

    because ACE2 is more expressed in the upper respiratory tract, where the larger, more easily filter particles adhere:*d1D-vuPcCt8215DMizL-9g.png

    • As I understand it, everybody in Hubei, and probably the rest of China, was required to wear a filter mask when they were allowed to go outside. US experts keep saying they make it worse. An N95 has a very tight seal. A lot of dust masks do not.

      We’ve made some very good ones with a small micron filter cloth I bought.

  112. The thing that struck me about the Diamond Princess cruise ship data was how few people had the disease, despite the near perfect conditions for an infection to spread.

    It has recently occurred to me that it is possible that they had been infected but had recovered before the tests. As I understand it they were only tested for the virus, not antibodies.

    If that is the case, in the region of 90% of infections are asymptomatic and over quickly, which is very good news.

    • What is more likely is SARS-CoV-2 is not a very good spreader. A lot of chains dead end on their – virus fails to thrive. In that situation it slowly builds until the number of chains reaches a critical threshold, and exponential growth begins. This is the only thing that explains how China not only flattened the curve, they have taken to existence of SARS-CoV-2 in their population of 1.4 billion people down to a very low number.

      It also explains how their countermeasures limited the outbreak mostly to Hubei province. No province that shares a border with Hubei had more than 1500 confirmed cases, the vast majority of the provinces in China had fewer than 1,000 confirmed cases.

      The most likely thing is very very few people in the world have antibodies for COVID-19. You have confirmed cases survivors. They obviously could, and likely do, but the spread outside of confirmed cases is likely limited. This is not seasonal flu. I am shocked Fauci is still talking about seasonal flu.

    • Chains dead end on their own.

    • One explanation for the very low death rate in Germany is that it is the accurate rate- in other words the number of people who got Covid19 in New York City is much, much higher than reported based on the accurate death rate.
      That would make a lot of sense given the limited testing and the fact that many people get the virus but show little to no symptoms. That would be good and bad news. Bad in that many of those are still early in their infection and are just now showing symptoms and are susceptible to needing hospitalization, and they’ve been spreading the virus. “Good” in that it means a lot of people in the city are now relatively immune and, while the city will get much worse very soon, it will get much better soon after that.
      The limits on testing aren’t ridiculous if you consider health care workers and protective equipment to be necessary resources and pay any attention to how much of the testing is actually a dangerous waste of time. The positive results rate for testing In my state, Virginia, is sub 10% even though we’re told not to get tested unless we have the symptoms and we’ve talked to a doctor and been told to go. It’s worse in other states- family members who have every symptom (but are getting well now) have been flatly told they won’t be tested.

  113. Bill –

    > The thing that struck me about the Diamond Princess cruise ship data was how few people had the disease, despite the near perfect conditions for an infection to spread.

    What do you know about the conditions? How quickly were people tightly isolated in their cabins after the first person with the virus became infectious? Seems to me that yes, in some ways the conditions were likely conducive to spread and in other ways conditions were ideal for preventing spread.

    • Steven Mosher

      The rate of infection in the Seattle nursing home is way higher than diamond princess, and rates of infections in Korea locations
      churches, hospitals, companies, are higher than diamond princess.

      That wont stop people from claiming the outlier is the perfect dataset
      because they are insufficiently skeptical of their own data selection

      • Two small populations with significant non-general factors:

        People in nursing homes are highly selected for pre-existing conditions.
        Not only more susceptible to poor outcome, but also contaigion.

        Cruise ships are at sea and high humidity diminishes transmission:

      • There are so many ways that trying to extrapolate from the cruise population is bad science.

        Probably most clearly – the population is an SES outlier. SES has a huge signal on health outcomes.

        Perhaps less likely but probably more significsnt if true – the strain on the cruise could have been non-representative.

  114. We’re in the same boat– turns out susceptibility to COVID19 depends on when you were born but not because viruses have a bigger effect on the very young and the very old (under 5 and over 75).

    Those born before 1968 have a greater natural immunity to Group 1 viruses – like, the 1918 virus that took out many 20 to 40-year-olds, because they were ‘imprinted’ with that at birth.

    Due to such imprinting, those born after 1968 have a greater natural immunity to Group 2 viruses, like… COVID19.

    It’s for these reasons that, for medical emergency workers who are ~50 years of age or older… it’s like being a medic during the Battle of the Bulge.

    • Interesting idea, but I’m not convinced it is correct.
      The Diamond Princess data suggests that, for adults (age >19), the proportion of infected people who are asymptomatic (presumably indicating at least partial immunity) increases with age, until age 80.

  115. Lodovico Volponi

    Just in case you haven’t seen this:

    Obviously irresponsible drivel.

  116. A view of Trump vs the Federal Bureaucracy:

    Surely not the last word.

  117. Apologies spam and moderation filter have been hyperactive. I will try to get a new thread going later today. Crazy busy!

  118. Nic, the Ferguson/Imperial College group has dropped a new paper with a supposedly updated model based on mitigation measures in various countries. Be very interested in your review of that paper as well.

  119. There is a surfeit of puerile argumentation from one or other of the usual partisan players. Do they imagine it adds something to rational discourse – or that we should care about their petty

    In Australia deaths so far have been about 4 per 1000 cases – 18 in all. But the virus is in the population at large. Like the historical scouges of smallpox, polio, measles, mumps, whooping cough… the virus is in the population at large. Waves of infection are inevitable – when travel and other restrictions are ultimately lifted. As they must be. As with climate change – the solution is 21st century science and technology.

  120. “Ye shall know them by their fruits.” Most comments I don’t read. Most posts at CE are a partisan waste of time. Indeed I managed only the first couple of sentences in the post. Typically peripheral and pompous pedantics. With what looks like a superficial take on infection dynamics.

    Making smarmy jibes while ignoring substance is a clue.

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  129. Another reason why this analysis is oitrnrialkybfstslky flawed by virtue if how it selects a sample and tries to extrapolate as if thst same is generalizable.

    For all we know, there could be strains of the virus that vary in lethality. The strain on the cruise could have been particularly benign (or malignant).

    Taking a particularly idiosyncratic sample and trying to extrapolate ain’t a great idea.

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  134. nobodysknowledge

    Now it is 11 deaths from Diamond Princess.

  135. Sensitivity is variable. Looking for one number to describe it and drive it is a mistake. Climate sensitivity is variable and has alluded being defined. Same with the virus.

    If it is this, then this happens. The situations involve many factors. If the virus has one intrinsic value that we use to describe it, that will find itself in different situations. Water at sea level air pressure always boils at 100 C. That’s not what’s going on. A model from Italy will likely not work in Minnesota, no matter what the science says.

    Because science should not rely on one value when that value is variable.

    We have all ready adapted. That alone interferes with an intrinsic value of the virus if it has one. Likewise our climate has adapted. Because it adapts, climate sensitivity has alluded being defined.

    Have we learned to stop trying to define the climate with one variable? No.

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  140. Time for another update – deaths up to 13

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  145. Maria Cummings

    To my knowledge, the facts that anyone has died from covid 19 in Liverpool hospitals is a LIE.