Search Results for: uncertainty

Uncertainty about the Climate Uncertainty Monster

by Judith Curry The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.

Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change

by Judith Curry When it comes to climate change, the procedure by which experts assess the accuracy of models projecting potentially ruinous outcomes for the planet and society is surprisingly informal. – Michael Oppenheimer

Decision making under uncertainty – maximize expected social welfare

by  -1=e^i pi Expected social welfare maximization is where you try to obtain the set of parameters (such as climate change policies) that will maximize the expected value of a social welfare function.

A perspective on uncertainty and climate science

by Marcia Wyatt This past summer I was asked to give a presentation on science and ethics. The person who asked me was motivated by the Pope’s encyclical, the comments regarding climate change.

The uncertainty of climate sensitivity and its implication for the Paris negotiations

by Judith Curry A burning question for the Paris negotiations: Are the INDCs sufficient to prevent 2 degrees of warming?

Managing uncertainty in predictions of climate change and impacts

by Judith Curry Climatic Change has a new special issue:  Managing Uncertainty Predictions of Climate Change and Impacts.

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy (!)

We argue for a redesign of climate change mitigation policies to be ‘anti-fragile’ with respect to scientific uncertainty. – Otto et al.

Science, uncertainty and advocacy

by Judith Curry I’m attending an interesting conference in Nottingham:  Circling the square: universities, the media, citizens and politics.

Stalking the uncertainty monster

by Judith Curry Its time to check in with the Climate Uncertainty Monster.

Ethics of communicating scientific uncertainty

by Judith Curry Last month I attended a Workshop on The Ethics of Communicating Scientific Uncertainty:  Understanding How Scientists, Environmental Lawyers, and Journalists Treat Uncertainty.

Lewis and Curry: Climate sensitivity uncertainty

by Judith Curry Our new paper on climate sensitivity is now published.

Model structural uncertainty – are GCMs the best tools?

by Judith Curry Rarely are the following questions asked:  Is the approach that we are taking to climate modeling adequate?  Could other model structural forms be more useful for advancing climate science and informing policy?

World Bank on Understanding Climate Uncertainty

by Judith Curry The impact of climate change looms large as a deep uncertainty with global consequences. – Khalra et al.

Taylor and Ravetz on the value of uncertainty

by Judith Curry . . . this “crisp number” mode of thinking has promoted the use of over-simplistic models and masking of uncertainties that can in turn lead to incomplete understanding of problems and bad decisions. – Peter Taylor and … Continue reading

Public engagement and communicating uncertainty

by Judith Curry Some interesting discussion this past week on the topic of public engagement and communicating climate uncertainty.

Uncertainty in Arctic temperatures

by Judith Curry Motivated by the paper by Cowtan and Way, this post examines uncertainties in the recent variability of Arctic temperatures.

Uncertainty in SST measurements and data sets

by Judith Curry Two new papers that discuss uncertainty in surface temperature measurements.

Uncertain future of climate uncertainty

by Judith Curry How believable are the IPCC’s continually increasing confidence levels?

Inadequate uncertainty analysis in climate change assessments

by Judith Curry Use of state-of-the-art statistical methods could substantially improve the quantification of uncertainty in assessments of climate change.

Uncertainty: lost in translation

by Judith Curry We have looked at what uncertainty means and doesn’t mean in science, how it is measured, when it can’t be measured and how that might change through research into the big questions. Above all we asked how other people can grapple constructively … Continue reading

Meta-uncertainty in the determination of climate sensitivity

by Judith Curry Two heavyweight climate scientists have published very different ideas about how much the Earth is going to warm in the coming decades. – Washington Weather Gang

Stratospheric uncertainty

by Judith Curry The new data call into question our understanding of observed stratospheric temperature trends and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. – Thompson et al.

Uncertainty in observations of the Earth’s energy balance

by Judith Curry This lack of precise knowledge of surface energy fluxes profoundly affects our ability to understand how Earth’s climate responds to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. – Graeme Stephens et al.

Coping with deep climate uncertainty

by Judith Curry So, what do you think climate science and policy would look like if the IPCC worked for the World Bank, instead of the UNFCCC?

RS Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather & Climate Prediction. Part I

by Judith Curry Later this week, the Royal Society is hosting a Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Prediction, With Application to Health, Agronomy, Hydrology, Energy and Economics.