Search Results for: uncertainty

Coronavirus uncertainty

by Judith Curry My thoughts on coronavirus and deep uncertainty.

Climate adaptation follies. Part II: scenarios of future sea level rise

by Judith Curry How did the state of New Jersey come to adopt sea level rise projections for their adaptation planning that are more than twice as high as the IPCC’s values?

Five rules for evidence communication

by Judith Curry “Avoid unwarranted certainty, neat narratives and partisan presentation; strive to inform, not persuade.”

Climate adaptation sense. Part III: Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways

by Judith Curry Best practices in adapting to sea level rise use a framework suitable for decision making under deep uncertainty.

Uncomfortable knowledge

by Judith Curry On the misuse of science and scientific authority.

How we fool ourselves

by Judith Curry Crowd sourcing examples of fallacious thinking from climate science.

Climate’s uncertainty principle

by Garth Paltridge On the costs and benefits of climate action.

What the pandemic has taught us about science

The scientific method remains the best way to solve many problems, but bias, overconfidence and politics can sometimes lead scientists astray

Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?

by Judith Curry My new manuscript is now available.

Resplandy et al. Part 5: Final outcome

By Nic Lewis The editors of Nature have retracted the Resplandy et al. paper.

Escape from model land

by Judith Curry “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.” – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks.

Important new paper challenges IPCC’s claims about climate sensitivity

by Nic Lewis Official estimates of future global warming may be overstated.

Solar variations controversy

by Judith Curry “The field of Sun-climate relations . . . in recent years has been corrupted by unwelcome political and financial influence as climate change sceptics have seized upon putative solar effects as an excuse for inaction on anthropogenic … Continue reading

5 minutes

by Judith Curry How would you explain the complexity and uncertainty surrounding climate change plus how we should respond (particularly with regards to CO2 emissions) in five minutes?

Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050

by Judith Curry A range of scenarios for global mean surface temperature change between 2020 and 2050, derived using a semi-empirical approach. All three modes of natural climate variability – volcanoes, solar and internal variability – are expected to act … Continue reading

Osman et al. 2021: a flawed Nature paleoclimate paper?

By Nic Lewis This article concerns the paper “Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum” by Matthew Osman et al.[2]  (hereafter Osman 2021) published by Nature in November 2021.

Projecting manmade climate change: scenarios to 2050

by Judith Curry Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate change — more realistic scenarios make for better policy. 

Climate scientists & politics: Simpleton versus wicked scientists

by Judith Curry In which wicked scientists are the good guys.

Will California “learn” to avoid Peak Rolling Blackouts?

by Planning Engineer The first week in September of this year California was facing rolling blackouts due to a forecast 20-year high Peak. Residents were asked to cut down electric usage and at risk of rolling blackouts. Is this a … Continue reading

Crossing (or not) the 1.5 and 2.0C thresholds

by Judith Curry “The first rule of climate chess is this.  The board is bigger than we think, and includes more than fossil fuels.”  – Jon Foley

Uncertainty in climate projections

by Judith Curry My article Climate Uncertainty and Risk has now been published in the Summer 2018 edition of CLIVAR Variations.

Climate uncertainty & risk

by Judith Curry I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.

National Climate Assessment: A crisis of epistemic overconfidence

by Judith Curry “You can say I don’t believe in gravity. But if you step off the cliff you are going down. So we can say I don’t believe climate is changing, but it is based on science.” – Katherine … Continue reading

15 minutes

by Judith Curry In a recent invited talk at the American Chemical Society annual meeting, I attempted to explain the climate debate in 15 minutes.