Search Results for: uncertainty

Decision making under uncertainty: the dog and the frisbee

by Judith Curry As you do not fight fire with fire, you do not fight complexity with complexity. Because complexity generates uncertainty, not risk, it requires a regulatory response grounded in simplicity, not complexity. To ask today’s regulators to save … Continue reading

Garth Paltridge held hostage (?) by the uncertainty monster

by Andy Lacis JC note:  this essay responds to Garth Paltridge’s recent post Science held hostage in climate debate. What’s up with Garth? Why the surprisingly out of touch lack of understanding of what it is that makes the global … Continue reading

Psychology of Uncertainty

by Judith Curry When we fail to distinguish between discovering order IN nature and imposing order ON nature, we have lost relationship with the very thing we yearn to know. Whereas once we were students of nature, looking to her for meaning, we now denigrate her … Continue reading

Uncertainty is not your friend (?)

by Judith Curry It is very clear that uncertainty is no one’s friend. We have seen that greater uncertainty about the evolution of the climate should give us even greater cause for concern. We have seen that all other things … Continue reading

Education and the Art of Uncertainty

by Judith Curry The quest for certainty blocks the search for meaning. Uncertainty is the very condition to impel man to unfold his powers. Erich Fromm

Keith Seitter on the ‘uncertainty monster’

by Judith Curry Keith Seitter is Executive Director of the American Meteorological Society.

Climatic Change special issue on uncertainty guidance for the IPCC: Part II

by Judith Curry Uncertainty abounds in issues related to climate science and climate changes, the impacts of those changes, and the efficacy of strategies that might be used to mitigate or adapt to change. There are, however, a few things about … Continue reading

Hegerl et al. react to the Uncertainty Monster paper

by Judith Curry Gabrielle Hegerl, Peter Stott, Susan Solomon, and Francis Zwiers have published a comment to our paper “Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster.”  Webster and Curry respond.  The CRU emails provide some interesting context for this discussion. .

Smith and Stern on uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy

by Judith Curry Risk assessment requires grappling with probability and ambiguity (uncertainty in the Knightian sense) and assessing the ethical, logical, philosophical and economic underpinnings of whether a target of ‘50 per cent chance of remaining under +2◦C’ is either … Continue reading

Proc. Roy. Soc. Special Issue on ‘Handling Uncertainty in Science’

by Judith Curry The Royal Society Discussion Meeting on Handling Uncertainty in Science, held 22/23 March 2010, played a seminal role in motivating me to investigate uncertainty in the climate debate.

Defending the Uncertainty Monster paper

by Judith Curry I’ve completed a revised draft of my response the to Reply to our Uncertainty Monster paper.

Does the Aliasing Beast Feed the Uncertainty Monster?

by Richard Saumarez Many continuous signals are sampled so that they can be manipulated digitally.  We assume that the train of samples in the time domain gives a true picture of what the underlying signal is doing, but can we … Continue reading

Climatic Change special issue on uncertainty guidance for the IPCC

by Judith Curry It is now published:  the Climatic Change Special Issue on Guidance for Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty and Confidence in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change.

Uncertainty monster visits MIT: Part II

by Judith Curry I’m in San Diego, with a few moments to catch up on the blog and share my impressions of my visit to MIT.

Uncertainty monster visits MIT

by Judith Curry This Thursday, I will be visiting the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences (EAPS) at MIT, giving the Victor Starr Lecture.

Verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification in scientific computing

by Judith Curry I think I am gaining some insight into the debate between scientists versus engineers regarding climate model verification and validation.

Uncertainty Monster paper in press

by Judith Curry My paper “Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster” is in press at the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Two (+1) new uncertainty papers

by Judith Curry My paper “Reasoning about climate uncertainty” has now been published online at Climatic Change; it looks like mine is the first to make it online of the papers in the special issue entitled Framing and Communicating Uncertainty and … Continue reading

Critique of the HADSST3 uncertainty analysis

by Judith Curry On the previous sea surface temperature thread, I stated “Do you for one minute believe that the uncertainty in global average sea surface temperature in the 19th century is 0.3C? I sure as heck don’t.” Sharper00 challenged … Continue reading

Uncertainty and the IPCC

by Judith Curry Two previous threads (here and here) have presented sections of my draft paper on Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster.  Here is an additional section on Uncertainty and the IPCC.

Taming the Uncertainty Monster

by Judith Curry The concluding section in my draft paper on “Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster” (discussed previously on this thread) is entitled “Taming the uncertainty monster.”

Doubt, uncertainty and ignorance

by Judith Curry The word “doubt” has a bad connotation in the climate debate owing to the merchants of doubt meme.  Richard Feynman puts the word “doubt”  into the appropriate perspective in the context of science: When a scientist doesn’t … Continue reading

Uncertainty, risk, and (in)action

by Judith Curry “So when you take uncertainty into account, it actually leads to the decision that we should take action more quickly.” I first spotted the statement in the Discover Magazine interview with myself and Michael Mann .  I thought … Continue reading

Uncertainty in Catastrophe Modeling

by Judith Curry Roger Pielke Jr. has a very interesting post on uncertainty in catastrophe modeling.  The basis for the post is an interview with Karen Clark.  Karen Clark developed the first catastrophe model, and is worried that these models … Continue reading

Reasoning About Climate Uncertainty – Draft

by Judith Curry Here is a complete (albeit rough) draft of my paper for the special issue in the journal Climatic Change (founding editor Steve Schneider) entitled Framing and Communicating Uncertainty and Confidence Judgments by the IPCC.