Category Archives: Uncertainty

Why scientists should talk to philosophers

by Judith Curry

The divorce between philosophers and scientists is fairly recent.  Its time for a reconciliation.

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IPCC and treatment of uncertainties

by Judith Curry

A new review paper on the IPCC and treatment of uncertainties.

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Overconfidence(?)

by Judith Curry

Yet not once has overconfidence by actual scientists been demonstrated. You just keep making that up. – Chris Colose

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World Bank on Understanding Climate Uncertainty

by Judith Curry

The impact of climate change looms large as a deep uncertainty with global consequences. – Khalra et al.

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Worst case scenario versus fat tail

by Judith Curry

 If we omit discussion of tail risk, are we really telling the whole truth? 

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The Fundamental Uncertainties of Climate Change

by Garth Paltridge

There is more than enough uncertainty about the forecasting of climate to allow normal human beings to be at least reasonably hopeful that global warming might not be nearly as bad as is currently touted.  Climate scientists, and indeed scientists in general, are not so lucky.  They have a lot to lose if time should prove them wrong.

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Taylor and Ravetz on the value of uncertainty

by Judith Curry

. . . this “crisp number” mode of thinking has promoted the use of over-simplistic models and masking of uncertainties that can in turn lead to incomplete understanding of problems and bad decisions. – Peter Taylor and Jerome Ravetz

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