Category Archives: Uncertainty

Spinning the climate model – observation comparison

Posted on February 22, 2013 | 1,221 Comments

by Judith Curry

In the past 6 months or so, we have seen numerous different plots of the CMIP5 climate model simulations versus observations.

Continue reading →

→ 1,221 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty, Communication, climate models

Stratospheric uncertainty

Posted on December 9, 2012 | 494 Comments

by Judith Curry

The new data call into question our understanding of observed stratospheric temperature trends and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. - Thompson et al.

Continue reading →

→ 494 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Uncertainty

Uncertainty in observations of the Earth’s energy balance

Posted on November 5, 2012 | 608 Comments

by Judith Curry

This lack of precise knowledge of surface energy fluxes profoundly affects our ability to understand how Earth’s climate responds to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. – Graeme Stephens et al.

Continue reading →

→ 608 Comments

Posted in Data and observations, Uncertainty

Italian seismologists: guilty(?)

Posted on October 23, 2012 | 188 Comments

by Judith Curry

Six Italian scientists and an ex-government official have been sentenced to six years in prison over the 2009 deadly earthquake in L’Aquila. – BBC

Continue reading →

→ 188 Comments

Posted in Communication, Ethics, Uncertainty

Alternative approach to assessing climate risks

Posted on October 15, 2012 | 63 Comments

by Judith Curry

At one level, analyzing climate risks is a matter of due diligence, given mounting scientific evidence. However, there is no consensus about the means for doing so nor about whether climate models are even fit for the purpose. An alternative to the scenario- led strategy, such as an approach based on a vulnerability analysis (“stress test”), may identify practical options for resource managers. - Brown and Wilby

Continue reading →

→ 63 Comments

Posted in Policy, Uncertainty

Communicating uncertainties in natural hazards research

Posted on October 10, 2012 | 141 Comments

by Judith Curry

Tell me what you know. Tell me what you don’t know. Then tell me what you think. Always distinguish which is which. – Colin Powell

Continue reading →

→ 141 Comments

Posted in Communication, Uncertainty

RS Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather & Climate Prediction. Part I

Posted on October 2, 2012 | 288 Comments

by Judith Curry

Later this week, the Royal Society is hosting a Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Prediction, With Application to Health, Agronomy, Hydrology, Energy and Economics.

Continue reading →

→ 288 Comments

Posted in Prediction, Uncertainty

Uncertainty in health impacts of climate change

Posted on September 20, 2012 | 320 Comments

by Judith Curry

Health risks arise from the interaction of uncertain future climatic changes with complex ecological, physical, and socio-economic systems, which are simultaneously affected by numerous other changes, e.g. globalisation, demographic changes, and changes in land use, nutrition, health care quality. Policymaking on adaptation to health risks of climate change thus faces substantial uncertainty. – Wardekker et al.

Continue reading →

→ 320 Comments

Posted in Climate change impacts, Uncertainty

No consensus on consensus: Part II

Posted on July 13, 2012 | 1,044 Comments

by Judith Curry

I’ve been invited to write a paper on the topic of consensus in climate change.

Continue reading →

→ 1,044 Comments

Posted in Consensus, Policy, Scientific method, Sociology of science, Uncertainty

Psychology of Uncertainty

Posted on June 10, 2012 | 284 Comments

by Judith Curry

When we fail to distinguish between discovering order IN nature and imposing order ON nature, we have lost relationship with the very thing we yearn to know. Whereas once we were students of nature, looking to her for meaning, we now denigrate her in the belief that it is our inalienable right to have dominion. – Kerry Gordon

Continue reading →

→ 284 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Uncertainty is not your friend (?)

Posted on June 6, 2012 | 419 Comments

by Judith Curry

It is very clear that uncertainty is no one’s friend. We have seen that greater uncertainty about the evolution of the climate should give us even greater cause for concern. We have seen that all other things being equal, greater uncertainty means that things could be worse than we thought. We have also seen that greater uncertainty means that the expected damages from climate change will necessarily be greater than anticipated, and that the allowance we must make for sea level rise will also be greater than anticipated. All of those results arise from simple mathematics, and we do not even have to resort to any economic modelling to understand how greater uncertainty translates into greater risk. – Stefan Lewandowsky

Continue reading →

→ 419 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Science is not about certainty

Posted on May 30, 2012 | 700 Comments

by Judith Curry

I seem to be saying two things that contradict each other. On the one hand, we trust scientific knowledge, on the other hand, we are always ready to modify in-depth part of our conceptual structure about the world. But there is no contradiction, because the idea of a contradiction comes from what I see as the deepest misunderstanding about science: the idea that science is about certainty. — Carlo Rovelli

Continue reading →

→ 700 Comments

Posted in Scientific method, Uncertainty

Doubt has been eliminated (?)

Posted on May 26, 2012 | 709 Comments

by Judith Curry

In a speech before the UN Commission on Sustainable Development, Gro Harlem Brundtland, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy on Climate Change, said:

So what is it that is new today? What is new is that doubt has been eliminated. The report of the International Panel on Climate Change is clear. And so is the Stern report. It is irresponsible, reckless and deeply immoral to question the seriousness of the situation. The time for diagnosis is over. Now it is time to act (Brundtland 2007).

Continue reading →

→ 709 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Education and the Art of Uncertainty

Posted on April 25, 2012 | 156 Comments

by Judith Curry

The quest for certainty blocks the search for meaning. Uncertainty is the very condition to impel man to unfold his powers. Erich Fromm

Continue reading →

→ 156 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

UQ

Posted on April 17, 2012 | 159 Comments

by Judith Curry

The new International Journal of Uncertainty Quantification has some very interesting papers. Lets take a look at a paper entitled ‘Error and Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis in Mechanics Computational Models.’

Continue reading →

→ 159 Comments

Posted in climate models, Uncertainty

Messes and super wicked problems

Posted on March 11, 2012 | 159 Comments

by Judith Curry

Believe it or not, “messes” is a technical term used to describe complex problems. Social messes are resistant to analysis and to resolution.

Continue reading →

→ 159 Comments

Posted in Policy, Uncertainty

Consensus or not (?)

Posted on February 6, 2012 | 332 Comments

by Judith Curry

Is there or isn’t there a scientific consensus on climate change? And does it matter?

Continue reading →

→ 332 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Keith Seitter on the ‘uncertainty monster’

Posted on January 28, 2012 | 288 Comments

by Judith Curry

Keith Seitter is Executive Director of the American Meteorological Society.

Continue reading →

→ 288 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Not 100% sure?

Posted on January 19, 2012 | 221 Comments

by Judith Curry

The drunk notoriously searches for his keys not in the dark where he dropped them, but under the lamp-post where he can see. This is an apt metaphor for much of what is written on the subject of risk management.

Continue reading →

→ 221 Comments

Posted in Communication, Uncertainty

The real holes in climate science

Posted on January 3, 2012 | 546 Comments

by Judith Curry

The American Meteorological Society 2011 Award for Distinguished Science Journalism in the Atmospheric and Related Sciences goes to . . .

Continue reading →

→ 546 Comments

Posted in Communication, Uncertainty

Climatic Change special issue on uncertainty guidance for the IPCC: Part II

Posted on December 28, 2011 | 53 Comments

by Judith Curry

Uncertainty abounds in issues related to climate science and climate changes, the impacts of those changes, and the efficacy of strategies that might be used to mitigate or adapt to change. There are, however, a few things about which we can be quite certain. There are also a number of things about which many people are certain, but should not be.

Continue reading →

→ 53 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Hegerl et al. react to the Uncertainty Monster paper

Posted on December 15, 2011 | 615 Comments

by Judith Curry

Gabrielle Hegerl, Peter Stott, Susan Solomon, and Francis Zwiers have published a comment to our paper “Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster.” Webster and Curry respond. The CRU emails provide some interesting context for this discussion.

Continue reading →

→ 615 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty

Smith and Stern on uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy

Posted on November 16, 2011 | 249 Comments

by Judith Curry

Risk assessment requires grappling with probability and ambiguity (uncertainty in the Knightian sense) and assessing the ethical, logical, philosophical and economic underpinnings of whether a target of ‘50 per cent chance of remaining under +2◦C’ is either ‘right’ or ‘safe’. How do we better stimulate advances in the difficult analytical and philosophical questions while maintaining foundational scientific work advancing our understanding of the phenomena? And provide immediate help with decisions that must be made now?

Continue reading →

→ 249 Comments

Posted in Policy, Uncertainty

Proc. Roy. Soc. Special Issue on ‘Handling Uncertainty in Science’

Posted on November 14, 2011 | 161 Comments

by Judith Curry

The Royal Society Discussion Meeting on Handling Uncertainty in Science, held 22/23 March 2010, played a seminal role in motivating me to investigate uncertainty in the climate debate.

Continue reading →

→ 161 Comments

Posted in Uncertainty