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Search Results for: RCP8.5
Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?
by Judith Curry In considering ‘worst case’ climate change impacts, we first need to assess the realistic worst case for global carbon emissions.
Posted in Energy
A closer look at scenario RCP8.5
by Larry Kummer The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris climate was preceded by a surge of studies and articles warning of a dismal future if we do not take strong policy action. One scenario in the IPCC’s … Continue reading
Posted in Policy
New confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming
by Ross McKitrick Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better.
Posted in climate models
New paper suggests historical period estimates of climate sensitivity are not biased low by unusual variability in sea surface temperature patterns
By Nic Lewis An important new paper by Thorsten Mauritsen, Associate Professor at Stockholm University[i] and myself has just been accepted for publication (Lewis and Mauritsen 2020)[ii]. Its abstract reads:
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week
Posted in Week in review
Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry (2018)
by Ross McKitrick Challenging the claim that a large set of climate model runs published since 1970’s are consistent with observations for the right reasons.
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Two more degrees by 2100!
by Vaughan Pratt An alternative perspective on 3 degrees C?
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
3 degrees C?
by Judith Curry Is 3 C warming over the 21st century now the ‘best estimate’? A reframing of how we think about climate change over the 21st century, and my arguments for 1 C.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week
Posted in Week in review
The toxic rhetoric of climate change
by Judith Curry “I genuinely have the fear that climate change is going to kill me and all my family, I’m not even kidding it’s all I have thought about for the last 9 months every second of the day. … Continue reading
Posted in Communication
Climate ‘limits’ and timelines
by Judith Curry Some thoughts in response to a query from a reporter.
Posted in Policy
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Week in review
Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?
by Judith Curry My new manuscript is now available.
Posted in Uncertainty
Rebelling against the Extinction Rebellion
by Larry Kummer The Extinction Rebellion and the Green New Deal arouse fears of extinction for other species, and humanity. Only the complicit silence of climate scientists makes this possible. Compare the alarmists’ claims with what scientists said in the … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change impacts, Communication
What’s the worst case? Emissions/concentration scenarios
by Judith Curry Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible?
Posted in Prediction
What’s the worst case? A possibilistic approach
by Judith Curry Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications and the media plausible? Are some of these outcomes impossible? On the other hand, are there unexplored worst-case scenarios that we have … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Week in review
Hurricanes & climate change: 21st century projections
by Judith Curry Final installment in my series on hurricanes and climate change.
Posted in Hurricanes
Critique of the new Santer et al. (2019) paper
by Ross McKitrick Ben Santer et al. have a new paper out in Nature Climate Change arguing that with 40 years of satellite data available they can detect the anthropogenic influence in the mid-troposphere at a 5-sigma level of confidence. … Continue reading
Posted in Attribution
Sea level rise whiplash
by Judith Curry Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.
Posted in Oceans
Reassessing the RCPs
by Kevin Murphy A response to: “Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?”. This post demonstrates that RCP8.5 is so highly improbable that it should be dismissed from consideration, and thereby draws into question the validity of RCP8.5-based assertions such as those … Continue reading
Posted in Energy
Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?
by Nic Lewis *** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC, Oceans
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Week in review
Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions
By Nic Lewis An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections. AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?
by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.
Posted in Oceans, Uncertainty
