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Search Results for: RCP8.5
Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?
by Judith Curry In considering ‘worst case’ climate change impacts, we first need to assess the realistic worst case for global carbon emissions.
Posted in Energy
Projecting manmade climate change: scenarios to 2050
by Judith Curry Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate change — more realistic scenarios make for better policy.
Posted in Uncategorized
Assessment of climate change risk to the insurance sector
by Judith Curry The insurance sector is abuzz with a new report from AIR Worldwide on the insurance risk from the impact of climate change on hurricanes. Insurance industry clients of my company, Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN), have requested … Continue reading
Posted in Hurricanes
Climate adaptation follies. Part II: scenarios of future sea level rise
by Judith Curry How did the state of New Jersey come to adopt sea level rise projections for their adaptation planning that are more than twice as high as the IPCC’s values?
Posted in Adaptation, Uncertainty
What’s the worst case? Emissions/concentration scenarios
by Judith Curry Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible?
Posted in Prediction
Reassessing the RCPs
by Kevin Murphy A response to: “Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?”. This post demonstrates that RCP8.5 is so highly improbable that it should be dismissed from consideration, and thereby draws into question the validity of RCP8.5-based assertions such as those … Continue reading
Posted in Energy
5 minutes
by Judith Curry How would you explain the complexity and uncertainty surrounding climate change plus how we should respond (particularly with regards to CO2 emissions) in five minutes?
Posted in Uncategorized
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks
Posted in Week in review
3 degrees C?
by Judith Curry Is 3 C warming over the 21st century now the ‘best estimate’? A reframing of how we think about climate change over the 21st century, and my arguments for 1 C.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
The toxic rhetoric of climate change
by Judith Curry “I genuinely have the fear that climate change is going to kill me and all my family, I’m not even kidding it’s all I have thought about for the last 9 months every second of the day. … Continue reading
Posted in Communication
Climate ‘limits’ and timelines
by Judith Curry Some thoughts in response to a query from a reporter.
Posted in Policy
How we have mischaracterized climate risk
by Judith Curry “The current thinking and approaches guiding this conceptualization and description have been shown to lack scientific rigour, the consequence being that climate change risk and uncertainties are poorly presented. The climate change field needs to strengthen its … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?
by Judith Curry My new manuscript is now available.
Posted in Uncertainty
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my these past few weeks.
Posted in Uncategorized
Sea level rise whiplash
by Judith Curry Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.
Posted in Oceans
New Confirmation that Climate Models Overstate Atmospheric Warming
by Ross McKitrick Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better. The papers are Mitchell et al. (2020) “The vertical profile of recent tropical … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?
by Nic Lewis *** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC, Oceans
Climate adaptation sense. Part III: Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways
by Judith Curry Best practices in adapting to sea level rise use a framework suitable for decision making under deep uncertainty.
Posted in Adaptation, Oceans, Uncertainty
Two more degrees by 2100!
by Vaughan Pratt An alternative perspective on 3 degrees C?
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Crossing (or not) the 1.5 and 2.0C thresholds
by Judith Curry “The first rule of climate chess is this. The board is bigger than we think, and includes more than fossil fuels.” – Jon Foley
Posted in Uncategorized
New paper suggests historical period estimates of climate sensitivity are not biased low by unusual variability in sea surface temperature patterns
By Nic Lewis An important new paper by Thorsten Mauritsen, Associate Professor at Stockholm University[i] and myself has just been accepted for publication (Lewis and Mauritsen 2020)[ii]. Its abstract reads:
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
New confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming
by Ross McKitrick Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better.
Posted in climate models
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week
Posted in Week in review
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week
Posted in Week in review
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Week in review
