Search Results for: RCP8.5

Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?

by Judith Curry In considering ‘worst case’ climate change impacts, we first need to assess the realistic worst case for global carbon emissions.

A closer look at scenario RCP8.5

by Larry Kummer The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris climate was preceded by a surge of studies and articles warning of a dismal future if we do not take strong policy action. One scenario in the IPCC’s … Continue reading

New confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming

by Ross McKitrick Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better.

New paper suggests historical period estimates of climate sensitivity are not biased low by unusual variability in sea surface temperature patterns

By Nic Lewis An important new paper by Thorsten Mauritsen, Associate Professor at Stockholm University[i] and myself has just been accepted for publication (Lewis and Mauritsen 2020)[ii]. Its abstract reads:

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week

Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry (2018)

by Ross McKitrick Challenging the claim that a large set of climate model runs published since 1970’s are consistent with observations for the right reasons.

Two more degrees by 2100!

by Vaughan Pratt An alternative perspective on 3 degrees C?

3 degrees C?

by Judith Curry Is 3 C warming over the 21st century now the ‘best estimate’?  A reframing of how we think about climate change over the 21st century, and my arguments for 1 C.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week

The toxic rhetoric of climate change

by Judith Curry “I genuinely have the fear that climate change is going to kill me and all my family, I’m not even kidding it’s  all I have thought about for the last 9 months every second of the day. … Continue reading

Climate ‘limits’ and timelines

by Judith Curry Some thoughts in response to a query from a reporter.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?

by Judith Curry My new manuscript is now available.

Rebelling against the Extinction Rebellion

by Larry Kummer The Extinction Rebellion and the Green New Deal arouse fears of extinction for other species, and humanity. Only the complicit silence of climate scientists makes this possible. Compare the alarmists’ claims with what scientists said in the … Continue reading

What’s the worst case? Emissions/concentration scenarios

by Judith Curry Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible?

What’s the worst case? A possibilistic approach

by Judith Curry Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications and the media plausible? Are some of these outcomes impossible? On the other hand, are there unexplored worst-case scenarios that we have … Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Hurricanes & climate change: 21st century projections

by Judith Curry Final installment in my series on hurricanes and climate change.

Critique of the new Santer et al. (2019) paper

by Ross McKitrick Ben Santer et al. have a new paper out in Nature Climate Change arguing that with 40 years of satellite data available they can detect the anthropogenic influence in the mid-troposphere at a 5-sigma level of confidence. … Continue reading

Sea level rise whiplash

by Judith Curry Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.

Reassessing the RCPs

by Kevin Murphy A response to: “Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?”. This post demonstrates that RCP8.5 is so highly improbable that it should be dismissed from consideration, and thereby draws into question the validity of RCP8.5-based assertions such as those … Continue reading

Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?

by Nic Lewis *** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. … Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions

By Nic Lewis An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections. AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations … Continue reading

Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.