Search Results for: RCP8.5

Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?

by Judith Curry In considering ‘worst case’ climate change impacts, we first need to assess the realistic worst case for global carbon emissions.

Projecting manmade climate change: scenarios to 2050

by Judith Curry Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate change — more realistic scenarios make for better policy. 

Assessment of climate change risk to the insurance sector

by Judith Curry The insurance sector is abuzz with a new report from AIR Worldwide on the insurance risk from the impact of climate change on hurricanes.  Insurance industry clients of my company, Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN), have requested … Continue reading

Climate adaptation follies. Part II: scenarios of future sea level rise

by Judith Curry How did the state of New Jersey come to adopt sea level rise projections for their adaptation planning that are more than twice as high as the IPCC’s values?

What’s the worst case? Emissions/concentration scenarios

by Judith Curry Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible?

Reassessing the RCPs

by Kevin Murphy A response to: “Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?”. This post demonstrates that RCP8.5 is so highly improbable that it should be dismissed from consideration, and thereby draws into question the validity of RCP8.5-based assertions such as those … Continue reading

5 minutes

by Judith Curry How would you explain the complexity and uncertainty surrounding climate change plus how we should respond (particularly with regards to CO2 emissions) in five minutes?

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks

3 degrees C?

by Judith Curry Is 3 C warming over the 21st century now the ‘best estimate’?  A reframing of how we think about climate change over the 21st century, and my arguments for 1 C.

The toxic rhetoric of climate change

by Judith Curry “I genuinely have the fear that climate change is going to kill me and all my family, I’m not even kidding it’s  all I have thought about for the last 9 months every second of the day. … Continue reading

Climate ‘limits’ and timelines

by Judith Curry Some thoughts in response to a query from a reporter.

How we have mischaracterized climate risk

by Judith Curry “The current thinking and approaches guiding this conceptualization and description have been shown to lack scientific rigour, the consequence being that climate change risk and uncertainties are poorly presented. The climate change field needs to strengthen its … Continue reading

Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?

by Judith Curry My new manuscript is now available.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my these past few weeks.

Sea level rise whiplash

by Judith Curry Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.

New Confirmation that Climate Models Overstate Atmospheric Warming

by Ross McKitrick Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better. The papers are Mitchell et al. (2020) “The vertical profile of recent tropical … Continue reading

Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?

by Nic Lewis *** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. … Continue reading

Climate adaptation sense. Part III: Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways

by Judith Curry Best practices in adapting to sea level rise use a framework suitable for decision making under deep uncertainty.

Two more degrees by 2100!

by Vaughan Pratt An alternative perspective on 3 degrees C?

Crossing (or not) the 1.5 and 2.0C thresholds

by Judith Curry “The first rule of climate chess is this.  The board is bigger than we think, and includes more than fossil fuels.”  – Jon Foley

New paper suggests historical period estimates of climate sensitivity are not biased low by unusual variability in sea surface temperature patterns

By Nic Lewis An important new paper by Thorsten Mauritsen, Associate Professor at Stockholm University[i] and myself has just been accepted for publication (Lewis and Mauritsen 2020)[ii]. Its abstract reads:

New confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming

by Ross McKitrick Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.