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Search Results for: RCP8.5
Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?
by Judith Curry In considering ‘worst case’ climate change impacts, we first need to assess the realistic worst case for global carbon emissions.
Posted in Energy
A closer look at scenario RCP8.5
by Larry Kummer The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris climate was preceded by a surge of studies and articles warning of a dismal future if we do not take strong policy action. One scenario in the IPCC’s … Continue reading
Posted in Policy
What’s the worst case? Emissions/concentration scenarios
by Judith Curry Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible?
Posted in Prediction
What’s the worst case? A possibilistic approach
by Judith Curry Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications and the media plausible? Are some of these outcomes impossible? On the other hand, are there unexplored worst-case scenarios that we have … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Week in review
Hurricanes & climate change: 21st century projections
by Judith Curry Final installment in my series on hurricanes and climate change.
Posted in Hurricanes
Critique of the new Santer et al. (2019) paper
by Ross McKitrick Ben Santer et al. have a new paper out in Nature Climate Change arguing that with 40 years of satellite data available they can detect the anthropogenic influence in the mid-troposphere at a 5-sigma level of confidence. … Continue reading
Posted in Attribution
Sea level rise whiplash
by Judith Curry Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.
Posted in Oceans
Reassessing the RCPs
by Kevin Murphy A response to: “Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?”. This post demonstrates that RCP8.5 is so highly improbable that it should be dismissed from consideration, and thereby draws into question the validity of RCP8.5-based assertions such as those … Continue reading
Posted in Energy
Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?
by Nic Lewis *** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC, Oceans
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Week in review
Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions
By Nic Lewis An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections. AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?
by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.
Posted in Oceans, Uncertainty
Special Report on Sea Level Rise
by Judith Curry I have now completed my assessment of sea level rise and climate change.
Posted in Climate change impacts, Oceans
Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C
by Nic Lewis A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC
Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part VI. Projections for the 21st century
by Judith Curry The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.
Posted in Oceans
Sea level rise acceleration (or not). Part V: detection & attribution
by Judith Curry In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of … Continue reading
Posted in Attribution, Oceans
Marvel et al.’s new paper on estimating climate sensitivity from observations
by Nic Lewis Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations’.[1]
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part I – Introduction
by Judith Curry Introduction and context for a new Climate Etc. series on sea level rise.
Posted in Attribution, Climate change impacts, Oceans
Reply to Patrick Brown’s response to comments on his Nature article
by Nic Lewis My reply to Patrick Brown’s response to my my comments on his Nature article.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Greater future global warming (still) predicted from Earth’s recent energy budget
by Patrick Brown A response to Nic Lewis’ post A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought
by Nic Lewis A critique of a recent paper by Brown and Caldeira published in Nature that predicted greater than expected global warming.
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Estimating the cost to America of damage from climate change in the 21st century
by Larry Kummer, originally posted at the Fabius Maximus website. Another peer-reviewed paper predicting disaster from climate change by misrepresenting and exaggerating the science. We can still learn much from it.
Posted in Climate change impacts
Prospects for a Prolonged Slowdown in Global Warming in the Early 21st Century
by Nic Lewis [W]e estimate that the warming slowdown (< 0.1 K/decade trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11%, and 6%, respectively. – Knutson et al.
Posted in Attribution, climate models
Climate models for lawyers
by Judith Curry I have been asked to write an Expert Report on climate models. ***SEE UPDATE
Posted in climate models
