Search Results for: RCP8.5

New confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming

by Ross McKitrick Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Hurricanes & climate change: 21st century projections

by Judith Curry Final installment in my series on hurricanes and climate change.

Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry (2018)

by Ross McKitrick Challenging the claim that a large set of climate model runs published since 1970’s are consistent with observations for the right reasons.

A closer look at scenario RCP8.5

by Larry Kummer The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris climate was preceded by a surge of studies and articles warning of a dismal future if we do not take strong policy action. One scenario in the IPCC’s … Continue reading

Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought

by Nic Lewis A critique of a recent paper by Brown and Caldeira published in Nature that predicted greater than expected global warming.

What’s the worst case? A possibilistic approach

by Judith Curry Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications and the media plausible? Are some of these outcomes impossible? On the other hand, are there unexplored worst-case scenarios that we have … Continue reading

Critique of the new Santer et al. (2019) paper

by Ross McKitrick Ben Santer et al. have a new paper out in Nature Climate Change arguing that with 40 years of satellite data available they can detect the anthropogenic influence in the mid-troposphere at a 5-sigma level of confidence. … Continue reading

Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part VI. Projections for the 21st century

by Judith Curry The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.

Climate Change, Extreme Weather, and Electric System Reliability

by Judith Curry I recently participated in a Technical Conference sponsored by the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Rebelling against the Extinction Rebellion

by Larry Kummer The Extinction Rebellion and the Green New Deal arouse fears of extinction for other species, and humanity. Only the complicit silence of climate scientists makes this possible. Compare the alarmists’ claims with what scientists said in the … Continue reading

Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C

by Nic Lewis A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights … Continue reading

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part I – Introduction

by Judith Curry Introduction and context for a new Climate Etc. series on sea level rise.

Special Report on Sea Level Rise

by Judith Curry I have now completed my assessment of sea level rise and climate change.

Marvel et al.’s new paper on estimating climate sensitivity from observations

by Nic Lewis Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations’.[1]

Science into agitprop: “Climate Change is Strangling Our Oceans”

by Larry Kummer, from the Fabius Maximus website The public policy debate about climate science shows the dysfunctional nature of the US media. Here’s another example of how propaganda has contaminated the news reporting of this vital subject, looking at … Continue reading

Prospects for a Prolonged Slowdown in Global Warming in the Early 21st Century

by Nic Lewis [W]e estimate that the warming slowdown (< 0.1 K/decade trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11%, and 6%, respectively. – Knutson et al.

Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions

By Nic Lewis An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections. AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations … Continue reading

How sensitive is global temperature to cumulative CO2 emissions?

by Nic Lewis The mean carbon cycle behaviour of CMIP5 ESMs and EMICs may be quite unrealistic.

Greater future global warming (still) predicted from Earth’s recent energy budget

by Patrick Brown A response to Nic Lewis’ post A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought.

Sea level rise acceleration (or not). Part V: detection & attribution

by Judith Curry In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of … Continue reading

Are energy budget climate sensitivity values biased low?

by Nic Lewis In a recently published paper (REA16),[i] Mark Richardson et al. claim that recent observation-based energy budget estimates of the Earth’s transient climate response (TCR) are biased substantially low, with the true value some 24% higher.

Climate models for lawyers

by Judith Curry I have been asked to write an Expert Report on climate models. ***SEE UPDATE