Search Results for: RCP8.5

Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.

Special Report on Sea Level Rise

by Judith Curry I have now completed my assessment of sea level rise and climate change.

Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C

by Nic Lewis A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights … Continue reading

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part VI. Projections for the 21st century

by Judith Curry The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.

Sea level rise acceleration (or not). Part V: detection & attribution

by Judith Curry In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of … Continue reading

Marvel et al.’s new paper on estimating climate sensitivity from observations

by Nic Lewis Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations’.[1]

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part I – Introduction

by Judith Curry Introduction and context for a new Climate Etc. series on sea level rise.

Reply to Patrick Brown’s response to comments on his Nature article

by Nic Lewis My reply to Patrick Brown’s response to my my comments on his Nature article.

Greater future global warming (still) predicted from Earth’s recent energy budget

by Patrick Brown A response to Nic Lewis’ post A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought.

Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought

by Nic Lewis A critique of a recent paper by Brown and Caldeira published in Nature that predicted greater than expected global warming.

Estimating the cost to America of damage from climate change in the 21st century

  by Larry Kummer, originally posted at the Fabius Maximus website. Another peer-reviewed paper predicting disaster from climate change by misrepresenting and exaggerating the science. We can still learn much from it.

Prospects for a Prolonged Slowdown in Global Warming in the Early 21st Century

by Nic Lewis [W]e estimate that the warming slowdown (< 0.1 K/decade trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11%, and 6%, respectively. – Knutson et al.

Climate models for lawyers

by Judith Curry I have been asked to write an Expert Report on climate models. ***SEE UPDATE

Are energy budget climate sensitivity values biased low?

by Nic Lewis In a recently published paper (REA16),[i] Mark Richardson et al. claim that recent observation-based energy budget estimates of the Earth’s transient climate response (TCR) are biased substantially low, with the true value some 24% higher.

Science into agitprop: “Climate Change is Strangling Our Oceans”

by Larry Kummer, from the Fabius Maximus website The public policy debate about climate science shows the dysfunctional nature of the US media. Here’s another example of how propaganda has contaminated the news reporting of this vital subject, looking at … Continue reading

How sensitive is global temperature to cumulative CO2 emissions?

by Nic Lewis The mean carbon cycle behaviour of CMIP5 ESMs and EMICs may be quite unrealistic.

Hiatus revisionism

by Judith Curry Some interesting new papers on the hiatus in global warming.

Risk assessment: What is the plausible ‘worst scenario’ for climate change?

by Judith Curry We know that climate change is a problem – but how big a problem is it? We have to answer this question before we can make a good decision about how much effort to put into dealing … Continue reading

Follow-up questions re my recent House testimony

by Judith Curry Some interesting follow-up questions from the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology regarding my recent Congressional testimony.

Whats up with the Atlantic?

by Judith Curry The Washington Post has this dramatic headline:  Global warming is now slowing down the circulation of the ocean with potentially dire consequences.

Lessons from the ‘Irreducibly Simple’ kerfuffle

by Rud Istvan UPDATE:  Response from Christopher Monckton The Monckton, Soon, Legates, and Briggs paper “Why models run hot, results from an irreducibly simple climate model” appeared in the January 2015 Science Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). … Continue reading

Challenging the 2 degree target

by Judith Curry “Without significant cuts in emissions by all countries, and in key sectors, the window of opportunity to stay within less than 2 degrees [of warming] will soon close forever.” – UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon

Coal and the IPCC

by Dave Rutledge Now that Working Group 3 has put its chapters on line, all six thousand pages of the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report have arrived. Coal is the specter that looms.

When bad news is good

by Rud Istvan The crescendo of climate change ‘bad’ news leading up to release of problematic AR5 SPM continues.

Nic Lewis on the UK Met Office on the pause

by Nic Lewis These comments constitute a response to erroneous statements and misrepresentations made in a report published by the Met Office in July 2013: “The recent pause in global warming (3): What are the implications for projections of future … Continue reading