Search Results for: Overconfidence in IPCC's detection and attribution. Part

National Climate Assessment: A crisis of epistemic overconfidence

by Judith Curry “You can say I don’t believe in gravity. But if you step off the cliff you are going down. So we can say I don’t believe climate is changing, but it is based on science.” – Katherine … Continue reading

The 50-50 argument

by Judith Curry Pick one: a)  Warming since 1950 is predominantly (more than 50%)  caused by humans. b)  Warming since 1950 is predominantly caused by natural processes.

Climate model simulations of the AMO

by Judith Curry What are the implications of climate model deficiencies in simulating multi-decadal natural internal variability  for IPCC’s climate change detection and attribution arguments?

Overconfidence in IPCC’s detection and attribution. Part IV

by Judith Curry Last October, I introduced this topic in Part I and followed up with Part II and Part III, which formed an early draft of an argument I was using in a paper entitled “Climate Science and the Uncertainty … Continue reading

Overconfidence in IPCC’s detection and attribution: Part III

by Judith Curry The focus of this series on detection and attribution is the following statement in the IPCC AR4:

Overconfidence in IPCC’s detection and attribution. Part II

by Judith Curry The focus of this series on detection and attribution is the following statement in the IPCC AR4:

Overconfidence in IPCC’s detection and attribution: Part I

by Judith Curry Arguably the most important conclusion of IPCC AR4 is the following statement:

Climate Etc.’s greatest “hits” for 2010

by Judith Curry Climate Etc.’s first post was on Sept 2, 2010.  Since then, there have been 82 posts and over 26,000 comments.  The WordPress stats counter provides all sorts of interesting information. Which posts do you think got the largest … Continue reading

Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation in the Climate Change Debate

Update:  WUWT has posted the rationale statement prepared by the workshop organizers, Jerome Ravetz and Angela Pereira by Judith Curry This week, I will be in Lisbon attending a Workshop on Reconciliation in the Climate Change Debate.  The Workshop was … Continue reading

Uncertainty and the IPCC AR5

by  Judith Curry I am starting to see some encouraging signs that people (including the IPCC) are paying more attention to the uncertainty issue as it relates to climate change.  Nature has an editorial on this issue that summarizes the … Continue reading

Reasoning About Climate Uncertainty – Draft

by Judith Curry Here is a complete (albeit rough) draft of my paper for the special issue in the journal Climatic Change (founding editor Steve Schneider) entitled Framing and Communicating Uncertainty and Confidence Judgments by the IPCC.

Attribution of extreme events

by Judith Curry Climate scientists have made public statements attributing extreme events to global warming.  The first such attribution that I recall was made by Kevin Trenberth, to the effect that 7% of Hurricane Katrina’s intensity and rainfalls could be … Continue reading