by Judith Curry, Jim Johnstone, Mark Jelinek
A deep dive into the causes of the unusual weather/climate during 2023. People are blaming fossil-fueled warming and El Nino, and now the Hunga-Tonga eruption and the change in ship fuels. But the real story is more complicated.
Observations
Starting in June, the global temperatures are outpacing the record year 2016 (Figure 1).
Figure 1. From Copernicus ECMWF
Here is the time series of the monthly surface temperature anomalies from the ERA5 reanalysis (Figure 2). The July 2023 spike was of comparable magnitude to the winter 2016 anomaly which occurred in late winter.
Figure 2.
Here is the time series of the monthly lower atmospheric temperature anomalies from the UAH satellite-based analysis. The July 2023 temperature anomaly remains slightly below the peak 2016 temperature anomalies and comparable to the peak 1998 temperature anomaly.
Figure 3. Plot from Roy Spencer
The spatial variation of July temperature anomalies is shown below (Figure 4). The ERA5 is the long-standing standard for global reanalyses; the JMA-Q3 (Japan) is a new product that uses a more sophisticated data assimilation process, and I expect it to be at least as good as the ERA5. Superficially, the spatial variability looks pretty much the same, but it is informative to compare the regional amounts of warming which differ significantly between the two reanalyses. Warming is greatest in the Antarctic, and lowest in the Arctic. The warming is also very strong over the NH midlatitude oceans.
The polar regions are of particular interest. The Arctic sea ice is healthy – Arctic sea ice extent for July was only the twelfth lowest in the satellite record. Greenland mass balance (snow accumulation minus melt) for July is above average relative to 1980-2010. The Antarctic is a different story. Antarctic winter sea ice is extremely low, much lower than any wintertime observations since the beginning of the satellite record in 1980. The warm anomaly near Antarctica is an effect the reduced sea ice extent, not a direct cause. The Antarctic ozone hole is opening very early.
Figure 4. Plots from Ryan Maue
Global radiation balance
We can gain some insights into what is going on from looking satellite observations of the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiation fluxes (anomalies relative to the period 2000-2023). The net flux at the top of the atmosphere is incoming solar radiation, minus reflected solar radiation minus outgoing longwave (IR) radiation. There is an overall increasing trend (consistent with an overall warming of global temperatures). The signatures of El Nino and La Nina are seen, with net energy loss (negative anomalies) during El Nino years (2002/2003, 2009/2010, 2015/2016) and net energy gain (positive anomalies) during La Nina years (2007/2008, 2010/2011, 2011/2012, 2020/2021, 2020/2022, 2022/2023). The data extends through May 2023, showing a very strong spike in the net radiative flux in April and May.
Figure 5. Data from CERES
Further information is gleaned from considering the individual components of the net TOA radiation flux: anomalies of incoming shortwave (solar) radiation, reflected (outgoing) solar radiation, and outgoing longwave radiation (IR) (Figure 6). There is little trend in the outgoing longwave radiation. You can see the 11-year solar cycle in the incoming shortwave, and in 2023 (approaching the peak of solar cycle 2025) the sun is the brightest it has been for the past 23 years (an increase of about 0.3 W m-2 since 2019). There is an overall decrease in the outgoing shortwave radiation over the time period, particularly since 2015; this decrease in outgoing shortwave radiation has dominated over the longwave in increasing the net flux at the top of the atmosphere since 2015. The decrease in outgoing shortwave radiation (reduced solar reflectivity) arises from some combination of reduced snow/ice cover, decreasing aerosol concentration, and/or few clouds or less reflective clouds.
Figure 6. Data from CERES
Specifically looking at the last point on the graph (May 2023), you see both outgoing longwave and outgoing shortwave negative anomalies, indicating more heat being retained (consistent with positive net flux in Figure 5). This signature could reflect a decrease in high-level cloudiness (both shortwave and longwave effects), impact of reduced ship sulfate aerosols (shortwave), reduced snow/ice extent (shortwave), and a signature from the Hunga-Tonga eruption (shortwave and longwave). All of these factors are arguably in play to some extent; the issue is their relative magnitude.
Perturbations from Hunga-Tonga volcanic eruption (2022) and the reduced injection of sulfate particles from changes to shipping fuel (since 2022) are being widely discussed in the media as the source of the warming. The eruption of Hunga-Tonga volcano in 2022 is associated with a large injection of water vapor (impacting longwave) and smaller injection of sulfate particles (impacting shortwave). Early estimates of their impacts are 0.1 W m-2 for both shortwave and longwave effects, essentially cancelling out for zero impact on the global net radiative flux (Figure 5).
As mentioned in our recent report on State of the Atlantic, in 2020 there was a change in ship fuel regulations (although regional shipping emissions reductions began in 2015). This change in ship fuels substantially (and quickly) reduced the amount of sulfate particles in the atmosphere, which is making low clouds less reflective. You can see the previous impact of sulfur rich ship fuel on the clouds, with highly reflective tracks (Figure 7).
Figure 7. Image pulled from twitter
This change in ship fuel has been estimated to decrease global outgoing shortwave radiation by 0.1 W m-2 (which is associated with a very small level of surface warming). Since low clouds are relatively warm (close to the temperature of the underlying ocean) and cloud infrared emissivity is less influenced by sulfate particles, you don’t see much of a longwave change from the aerosol reduction (so there is no cancellation in longwave and shortwave effects, such as for Hunga- Tonga).
This image of ship tracks (Figure 8) shows that the change in sulfate aerosol forcing is predominantly a NH issue, particularly in the NH midlatitudes. A decrease in outgoing shortwave of 2 W m-2 has been estimated in the main NH midlatitude shipping corridor.
Figure 8. Image pulled from twitter
A comparison of net shortwave radiation anomalies for each hemisphere is shown in Fig 9. Both hemispheres show the same negative trend (decreasing), indicating less reflection of solar radiation. Since 2015, there is some hint of the NH reflecting less shortwave than the SH (potentially associated with reduction of ship sulfate aerosols) with a strong divergence in the NH and SH for the last data point (May 2023); however, there is substantial interannual variability.
Figure 9. Data from CERES
Bottom line. The recent warming in spring/summer 2023 is associated with a spike in the net radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere. This spike reflects a combination of an increase in incoming shortwave, a decrease in high-level cloudiness, impact of reduced ship sulfate aerosols, reduced snow/ice extent, and the Hunga Tonga eruption. The main significance of the change in ship fuel aerosol is the regional variations in the aerosol forcing (not so much the impact on global or even hemispheric mean temperature). The net global impact of Hunga-Tonga on the global radiation balance seems to be close to zero. It will certainly be interesting to see what the TOA radiative fluxes look for June and July.
Surface energy balance
Analysis of the top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes is informative for hemispheric and planetary scale energy balances. The surface energy balance is of more direct importance in determining upper-ocean and surface temperature tendencies (i.e. changes). The total net surface heat flux is the sum of the turbulent heat flux (combined latent and sensible, which includes evaporation), and net shortwave (solar) and longwave radiative fluxes.
Figure 10 illustrates the anomalous net downward surface heat flux components averaged over May through July, based on NCEP Reanalysis-2 data (seasonal cycle removed). Turbulent heat flux anomalies are primarily responsible for the total net surface heat flux, reflecting the strong influence of surface winds on evaporative and sensible cooling of the surface ocean. Monthly turbulent heat flux anomalies of +20 to +30 W/m2 were the predominant source of continuous monthly warming over most of the North Atlantic and much of the Northern Hemisphere oceans from May to July. The positive turbulent heat flux anomalies that act to warm the surface are associated with weak surface winds, particularly with weak trade winds in the tropics.
Shortwave (solar) surface flux anomalies are most prominent in the tropical Pacific, reflecting anomalous patterns of convective cloudiness that cool the surface, while net longwave fluxes are generally modest in amplitude. Shortwave flux anomalies are positive over the mid latitude NH oceans (warming the surface) particularly the Pacific, which is consistent with some regional influence from the change in ship fuels and reductions in sulfate aerosol. The turbulent heat fluxes are the largest contributor to the net surface heat flux in most regions. Note the extreme turbulent cooling (dark blue) off the coast of Antarctica; this reflects very strong winds from the north that are the main driving factor in the low Antarctic sea ice extent. Also note the anomalous warming in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean with anomalous warming from turbulent fluxes, associated with low wind speeds.
Figure 10. Net downward surface heat flux anomalies from May through July 2023.
The SST tendencies (Figure 11) generally reflect the net surface heat flux (Fig 10, lower right), with ocean circulation heat transport patterns acting to modulate the SST tendencies. An exception is near the coast of Antarctica, where the resulting sea ice extent dominates the SST tendencies.
Figure 11. May through July 2023 SST tendencies.
Bottom line: The anomalous global ocean patterns of SST are dominated by surface wind anomalies (driven by atmospheric circulation patterns) that influence the amount of surface cooling from evaporation and sensible heat flux. The strong warming in high latitudes of the Atlantic Ocean is supported by both the surface turbulent fluxes (low wind speed) and solar heating.
Climate dynamics
The radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere, and the spatial variations in the surface energy balance, influence atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. Spatial variations of the external radiative forcing signal acts to amplify and modulate the natural internal modes of variability, such as ENSO and AMO. These circulation patterns modify cloudiness which feedback onto the circulation patterns, further complicating the whole thing. With this context, the analysis below provides speculative but physically-based reasoning on the factors in play that are determining the circulations that are relevant to the Atlantic hurricane season.
Warming in the midlatitudes of the NH, with possible contribution from reduced sulfate aerosol, has given the northern branch of the AMO+ new life, which had overall been cooling since 2015.
The midlatitude warming is causing a decrease in the meridional (south to north) heat transport (atmospheric and oceanic) and contributing to a latitudinal shift in the intertropical convergence zone. This may be reflected in the meridional circulation modes (PMM, AMM).
Distorted warming in colder drier areas of the north Atlantic disturbs the vertical velocity patterns, leading to the expansion of the Hadley Cell. Hadley Cells are the low-latitude overturning circulations that have air rising near the equator and air sinking at roughly 30° latitude, with the cells migrating northward and southward with the sun’s annual cycle. Numerous studies have suggested that the sinking branches of Earth’s Hadley circulation and the associated subtropical dry zones have shifted poleward. Current understanding is that most of the recent Northern Hemisphere Hadley Cell widening is consistent with natural variability.
The strong warming in midlatitude oceans seen in summer 2023, partially in response to elimination of the ship fuel sulfates, is supporting the expansion northward of the Hadley Cell. The Hadley Cell expansion is consistent with the Bermuda High being fairly far north this year, with intensified dry air over the subtropical oceans. Note: El Nino is typically associated with a contraction of the latitudinal extent of the Hadley Cell; that is not what we are seeing this year in the Atlantic.
A recent study has linked a poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation to Hadley Cell expansion. Another study cites an upper-level weakening of the rising branch of the Hadley circulation in the deep tropics, possibly induced by the increased vertical stability with warmer SSTs, which has likely suppressed the low-latitude tropical cyclone genesis in most ocean basins.
North Atlantic Ocean – internal variability
Current SST anomalies in the North Atlantic display a characteristic ‘Arc’ pattern (horseshoe), the leading pattern of natural variability and a signature of NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and AMM (Atlantic Meridional Mode) (Fig 12). Extreme Arc warmth in June and July followed a steep rise (+0.8°C) since late February, as seen in monthly and daily Arc SST anomalies (Fig. 12, right panels).
Figure 12. Left: SST anomalies over the NE Pacific and North Atlantic, August 10, 2023. Top right: Monthly SST anomalies over the warm North Atlantic ‘Arc’ region. Bottom right: Daily Arc SST anomalies during 2023.
Short-term warming of this magnitude is comparable to changes ( > 0.4°C) over consecutive 3-month periods during winter-spring seasons of 1983, 1987, 1989 and 2010 (Fig. 13). The warming in early 2023 occurred from a relatively warm initial state, bringing Arc SST anomalies to historic highs during the past 1-2 months.
Figure 13. Left: Monthly Arc SST tendencies (red) and anomalies (gray) from January 1982 to July 2023. Tendencies represent changes between consecutive 3-month windows, plotted at the final point of the 2nd period. Anomalies represent 3-month running means, plotted at the final point of each period. The anomaly series is identical to the cumulative sums of the tendency series, and the final anomaly value (+1.03 °C) represents the net SST change throughout the record.
Each of the previous warming events was followed by cooling of approximately equal magnitude within the next 6-24 months, resulting in relatively small net changes in SST and upper-ocean heat content. A notable exception to this behavior was the steep Arc SST rise of 1994-95, which introduced a ~20-year period of warm surface conditions and strong hurricane activity in the North Atlantic that remains, in some respects, to the present (a shift to the warm phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation). An opposite case is seen around 1970, when strong warming in 1969-70 was followed by a deeper SST drop in 1971-72 that marked the beginning of cool conditions and weak hurricane activity through 1994 (a shift to the cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation).
The climatic implications of the current warming pulse remain to be seen. Historically, North Atlantic climate shifts have followed extreme SST changes over periods of ~12-24 months, while shorter spikes like early 2023 have been reversed by subsequent atmospheric forcings.
Why did the 2023 warming occur? Much of it can be explained by atmospheric forcing by the negative phase of the NAO, and positive SST feedbacks of the AMM. NAO- anomalies involve anomalous low pressure over most of the North Atlantic basin, weak surface westerly and trade winds, and reduced evaporative cooling that sequesters heat (mainly from solar warming) in the upper-ocean mixed layer. In the tropical North Atlantic positive SST anomalies can also promote NAO-like SLP and wind anomalies, reinforcing the initial atmospheric forcing through a positive Wind-Evaporation-SST (WES) feedback, while enhancing surface solar heating by reducing stratocumulus cloudiness and Saharan dust concentrations in the tropical atmosphere.
We diagnosed recent Atlantic SST changes by analyzing modes of atmosphere-ocean variability using gridded 3-month tendencies of atmospheric SLP and SST. The approach is similar to conventional EOF analysis, but focuses on short-term coupled variations with the atmosphere leading by one month. We identified 4 primary patterns that account for >80% of the Arc SST warming (+0.53°C) between FMA and MJJ windows in 2023.
The four influential modes are illustrated in Fig 14 as maps of SLP and SST tendencies, each overlain with related surface wind patterns. The primary mode (M1) reflects SLP and wind variations of the NAO/AMM and slightly delayed SST anomalies in the structure of the North Atlantic Arc and a well-known ‘tripole’ SST response to the NAO. This single NAO/AMM mode accounts for approximately half (+0.26°C) of the observed Arc warming in spring-summer 2023 with an MJJ peak that is comparable to several earlier warming events since 1982.
An additional source is indicated by the second mode (M2), which describes tropical surface warming, particularly off West Africa, in response to high equatorial SLP and a weak meridional SLP gradient that produces weak trade winds. This pattern persisted at moderately positive amplitudes since December 2022, and accounts for +0.10°C warming over the Arc from FMA to MJJ. This pattern typically develops from quasi-uniform increases in temperatures and geopotential heights in the tropical troposphere (15°N-15°S), as seen in early 2023 with the growth of El Niño conditions.
Another mode (M4) accounts for a coupled pattern of high SLP, anticyclonic winds and warm SSTs in the midlatitude North Atlantic off Europe, which contributed +0.08°C to the observed Arc warming. This pattern, with collocated SLP and SST anomalies, is suggestive of a positive feedback between warm surface conditions and a midlatitude blocking high. The M4 index displayed a sharp reversal from negative to positive anomalies, with a peak in MJJ.
Figure 14. Modes of coupled SLP-SST tendencies with influence on recent changes in the North Atlantic and eastern Pacific. Left column illustrates 4 modes (top to bottom) that represent patterns of SLP tendencies that precede the SST tendency patterns to the right (center column). Vectors show associated surface wind anomalies. Time series in the right column illustrate the 1982-2023 evolution of each mode. The final (highlighted) value of each series represents MJJ 2023 (MJJ changes vs. FMA). Each series is scaled to reflect its contribution to Arc SST tendencies.
We also include an ENSO-related mode (M6), which is defined by declining SLP and rising SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific, as wells as surface warming that extends into the subtropical North Atlantic. This mode peaked in the positive phase in MJJ, reflecting an observed SLP decline in the eastern Pacific, but accounts for little of the recent Arc SST warming (+0.01°C).
Figure 15 illustrates the FMA-MJJ SLP-SST changes described by all four modes in combination. These patterns account for major features of observed SLP change, including a drops in North Atlantic SLP and trade wind intensity, declining eastern Pacific SLP, and increasing SLP in conjunction with surface warming over western Europe. SST changes describe by the four modes provide a good match to observed changes over the North Atlantic and the tropical eastern Pacific.
Figure 15. Left: MJJ 2023 SLP and SST tendencies described by the four modes discussed in the text. Right: Observed MJJ SLP and SST tendencies.
The history of Arc SST tendencies is also well-described by the four coupled modes in combination (r = 0.91, Fig. 16), indicating the strong influence of these patterns on overall atmosphere-ocean variability in the North Atlantic.
Figure 16. Arc SST tendency anomalies (1982-2023). Blue: observed. Red: reconstruction from 4 SLP-SST modes.
This analysis shows that a small set of coupled SLP-SST modes can account for a large fraction of observed spatial and temporal variability of North Atlantic climate. The modes capture known patterns of atmospheric forcing upon SSTs, particularly the NAO and a slightly delayed Tripole response. This interpretation is supported by patterns of surface winds that match those of physical SST responses, largely through the direct effects of wind speeds on evaporation rates, and opposite responses in SSTs. For example, the NAO SLP pattern, as illustrated, reflects a cyclonic surface wind response to low SLP over the central North Atlantic, which weakens the mean anticyclonic circulation pattern, simultaneously reducing the intensities of midlatitude westerly winds and tropical-subtropical trades. Consequent reductions of evaporative cooling rates (i.e. positive downward latent heat flux anomalies) lead to warming in these areas, as reflected by the coupled SST component of the NAO mode.
Additionally, the spatial structures of the coupled modes suggest important influence of SSTs upon atmospheric circulation, largely in a reinforcing manner. All four modes display collocated SLP-SST anomalies of the same sign, wherein areas of cool midlatitude surface conditions (M1, M2, M6) coincide with areas of low pressure and cyclonic circulation, likely due to surface cooling of the overlying troposphere, a drop in geopotential heights and resulting cyclonic circulation anomaly in the mid-tropospheric westerly flow that in turn affects surface pressure and winds. Conversely, areas of warm SSTs favor tropospheric warmth, elevated geopotential heights and a blocking anticyclonic circulation aloft that tends to reinforce initial warming, as suggested by positive M4 anomalies that account for increasing SLP and SST over western Europe.
The implied positive feedbacks between SSTs and atmospheric circulation provide a reasonable explanation for the occasional development and persistence of extreme SST anomalies, as seen in the spring of 2023. Such coupling suggests a stronger SST influence on midlatitude circulation than is commonly appreciated, and we are developing predictive tools to improve seasonal forecasts of the ‘noisy’ midlatitude circulation from relatively slow-changing SSTs. Any external perturbation, say from reduced ship fuel aerosols, will project onto these modes of variability, reinforcing the M1 and M4 patterns.
Antarctica
Antarctica has a significant cold anomaly, running 3oC below average. The lack of Antarctic sea ice is not directly caused by warming because the region is very cold.
Figure 17. Pulled from twitter
The other Antarctic anomaly of interest is the early seasonal start to formation of the Antarctic ozone hole. The Hunga-Tonga eruption is having an impact here. The addition of a large amount of stratospheric water vapor over Antarctica causes stratospheric cooling and the formation of ice clouds in the stratosphere when there is more water vapor than usual. These ice particles catalyze the reactions from the ozone-destroying chemicals.
There is concern about the impact of the ozone hole on Antarctic sea ice, which was low in 2022 as well as 2023. The mechanism is to change the circulation patterns (and winds) in the mid/high latitudes. A larger ozone hole may lead to a positive phase of a climate driver called the southern annular mode (SAM), which reflects the strength and N-S location of the belt of strong westerly winds. A shift of the winds poleward can push away more ice. However in 2023, a different wind pattern has been in play, bring strong winds from the north that are breaking up and compressing the sea ice against the continent; this is producing complex regional patterns.
Conclusions
This Report has provided an integrated look at the global climate from the perspective of the global radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere, components of the surface energy balance, and the internal modes of climate variability driven by atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. Recent anomalies are introduced by external forcing from the Hunga-Tonga eruption in 2022 and the change in sulfate aerosol emissions from ship fuels which started in 2015 and was mandated in 2020.
The exceptionally warm global temperature in 2023 is part of a trend of warming since 2015 that is associated primarily with greater absorption of solar radiation in the earth-atmosphere system. This increase in absorbed solar radiation is driven by a slow decline in springtime snow extent, but primary by a reduction in reflection from the atmosphere driven by reduced cloudiness and to a lesser extent a reduction in atmospheric aerosol. Any increase in the greenhouse effect from increasing CO2 (which impacts the longwave radiation budget) is lost in the noise.
El Nino and La Nina introduce strong interannual variability into the top-of-atmosphere and surface energy balances. Against this strong background of interannual variability, there is discernible evidence of the impact of the change in ship aerosols primarily in the mid latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impacts of Hunga Tonga in the stratosphere are primarily expected to occur in the winter hemisphere, because of cancelling of longwave and shortwave effects in the summer hemisphere.
Global variations in the surface energy budget show anomalous shortwave heating in the mid latitude Northern Hemisphere, which is influenced by the reduction of sulfate aerosols from ship fuel. The eastern north Atlantic is warming from anomalously low turbulent heat fluxes, reflecting weak surface winds particularly in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. In the mid/high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere Oceans, there is strong cooling from surface turbulent fluxes that are associated with strong wind speeds.
In the North Atlantic, a decomposition of the modes of atmospheric circulation patterns shows a confluence of factors that are contributing to the anomalous sea surface temperatures and circulation during summer 2023. The implied positive feedbacks between SSTs and atmospheric circulation in our analysis provide a reasonable explanation for the occasional development and persistence of extreme SST anomalies, as seen in the spring of 2023.
Of direct relevance to Atlantic hurricanes, warming in the midlatitudes of the NH, with possible contribution from reduced sulfate aerosol, has given the northern branch of the AMO+ new life, which had overall been cooling since 2015.
Distorted warming in colder drier areas of the north Atlantic disturbs the vertical velocity patterns, leading to the expansion of the Hadley Cell. The Hadley Cell expansion is consistent with the Bermuda High being fairly far north this year, with intensified dry air over the subtropical oceans. This pattern may support a northward shift of tropical cyclone formation and suppression of low latitude formation.
Well this post should keep you busy and entertained for awhile! Crazy busy with hurricane season and interviews. Will post new material when i can.
FYI, the climate activists won their case against the State of Montana this afternoon. The judge accepted their arguments verbatim.
This is no surprise because the state’s lawyers didn’t offer anything resembling an organized body of counter-argument to what the plaintiffs were claiming.
beta – I have scanned through the findings of facts in the opinion, and yes the judge took the plaintiffs testimony at full face value.
As I noted yesterday several observations on the findings of fact
1) lots of findings of facts are either grossly misleading, distorted, lacking context or flat our wrong.
2) Another “expert witness” testified was credited with winning the nobel prize (nobel peace prize) as one of the coauthors of the IPCC. Just like Mann
3) another bucket of the harms are either highly speculative, wrong, or simply PRE traumatic stress
In regard to your comment on the poor job offering counter balancing testimony, my speculation is putting on counter balancing expert testimony would have been pointless since the judge had already decided the direction of the science. ie even if every point made by plaintiffs experts was fully discredited in cross or by defense experts, the judge would still have had the same findings of fact.
That was an embarrassing ruling. “The global share of CO2 emissions produced by the state of Montana is equivalent to 0.00084% of the global CO2 emissions. If this share has stayed constant then Montana is presumably responsible for 0.000009°C of the 1.1°C of warming since 1880. At this scale, the ‘climate impacts’ supposedly caused by the emissions of the state of Montana are below detection limits.” https://irrationalfear.substack.com/p/did-judge-seeley-get-it-right-when
jk & Beta – terrible ruling on the merits, Lots to criticize on the defense efforts. Though in fairness to the defense, the judges final opinion was pre-ordained based on the judges rulings on the various motions at least obvious to me that the judge was going to rule in the plaintiffs favor from the start. The judge was going to and did accept the plaintiffs testimony at full face value.
Joe, even if the verdict was pre-ordained, the larger public interest would have been better served if the state’s lawyers had presented a fully detailed set of scientific and evidentiary counter-arguments to each and every one of the plaintiff’s claims.
Those counter-arguments would then have been on the public record for future use by anyone who has to deal with the regulatory decision-making fallout which is certain to flow from this decision.
Having spent a short time doing environmental regulation compliance work in Montana in the mid-1970’s, I can tell you that climate activists will waste no time in placing exceptional pressure on the state’s regulatory agencies to deny the environmental permits needed by Montana’s coal mines and coal-fired power plants to keep operating.
IMHO, the ruling will not be overturned. Montana’s amended constitution from 1972 is a Pandora’s Box of environmental litigation mischief. But it says what it says. My personal opinion is that regulatory agencies in Montana will now have no other choice but to deny the necessary environmental permits the next time these come up for renewal.
Hey Dr. Curry,
I recently saw your interview with BizNewsTv. I am an engineering student discouraged by the news surrounding climate change so I wanted to ask a follow-up question to your contention about the climate change agenda. You argue that the consensus around the human caused climate emergency is largely fabricated/homogenized by political interest groups. From my (albeit limited due to age) understanding of politics, the government (and all institutions) is rarely quick to move in new directions when the status quo is benefitting them (i.e. fossil fuel companies/lobbyists and their gov’t expenditures). What organization or political arm could have been so empowered as to cause the government to raise a panic when both parties receive so much from the currently enriched energy companies?
Knowing as much as we now do about corruption of the data resulting from UHI (Urban Heat Island) effects, using General Circulation Models (GCMs) fabricated by corrupt government-funded scientists to justify tax hikes on basic factors of production based on ignorant and superstitious fears of scientific illiterates who have been schooled to believe that runaway global warming is causing deep, disastrous climate change catastrophe is Climatology’s version of the built-in fundamental flaws of the Hubble Space Telescope’s bad mirror. GCMs are Climatology’s $10,000 toilet seats. Climatology has been likened by non-Western academics to the ancient science of astrology. The EPA has become the IRS and EPA regulations have become a payroll tax. The Left’s vision of liberal Utopia turned its back on natural light to interpret flickering shadows on the wall of Plato’s prison cave. A secular, socialist government that’s too big to fail has become a sledgehammer in the hands of a heart surgeon. Ethics and honor in science traded ivory halls for dirt floors.
Jonathan: Good question. I am no climate scientist but I am much older than you and I remember back to the 1970s when all this got started. Britain had just suffered through a period of economy destroying strikes led by Scargill and the coal miners. The net result was that while Britain was benefiting from the North Sea Oil and Gas boom, we were still heavily dependent upon coal for power generation. I was there when we had a winters of rolling blackouts and massively disrupted train schedules. The Government appears to have initial empowered the anti-fossil fuel movement as a means of curtailing the power of the coal unions (and legitimating the closing of many marginally economic British coal mines). It appears to have back-fired.
Obviously this is not the only factor in the emergence of the anti-fossil fuel forces (and it says little about the actual nature and scope of the actual changes to global climate), but it illustrates the role of political forces in driving energy-related policies and they go far beyond the profits of the old fossil fuel “bad guys”. If self-interest motivates one side of a political argument, it can also motivate the other side, behind the veil of the public good and noble causes.
Hello Jonathan, check out my new book Climate Uncertainty and Risk, which explains all this.
bernie1815 wrote:
Britain had just suffered through a period of economy destroying strikes led by Scargill and the coal miners.
I have seen video that said Margret Thacher had trouble with coal miners and oil from Mideast, story was she was trying to promote nuclear, that has not gone well, so far.
Jonathan, politics can be even more complex than the dynamics of Hadley Cells and Bermuda highs on the AMO, all tipped by the anomalous effect of a change in composition of ship smoke.
The reason, in my opinion, that the fossil fuel industry lost its political clout while pharma, munitions and many other industries retain theirs is that climate is just too valuable a political tool. In all definitions climate justice is a religion. Any claim can be made, all plausible but at the same time mostly unfalsifiable. It has a deeply moral emotional appeal similar the abortion issue. But instead of rights of bodily autonomy versus rights of innocent life, climate can easily twisted by its complexity to fill any argument of rights. Climate justice can prosecute any political foe and sanctify any expenditure or public seizure. It’s the perfect emergency power. It contains zero accountability. It’s political crack.
Remember, the weather was a tool of every politically competent emperor or clergy of the king before the enlightenment. Climate science has returned that tool. We see today the news blame every fire, flood, drought, storm, freeze and hot spell on political enemies. As for lost campaign financing revenue, that is replaced many times over by grass roots donations for the cause. Also, with free reign to dole out the public treasury to in response to the ongoing emergency, green lobbying kickbacks nicely replace old Standard Oil support. New, highly speculative, green start ups often go under just after being handed millions by the government. See Proterra Inc.
But we mean well.
Oil and gas companies have been promoting, funding and benefiting from climate alarmism for decades.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2012/05/22/how-big-oil-benefits-from-global-warming-alarmism/?sh=7a0182c55aa7
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_and_Gas_Climate_Initiative
https://notrickszone.com/2015/02/09/long-list-of-warmist-organizations-scientists-haul-in-huge-money-from-big-oil-and-heavy-industry/
It takes very little knowledge of the history of oil, and its role in wars, and geopolitical crises since the early parts of the last century, to appreciate why US dependence on oil is something that is more than problematic. From the blockade of Japan’s oil supply in WWII, to our many middle East, and present conflicts with Russia. Oil has played a determinate role in the outcomes. Our efforts thru the many treaties, embargoes, and the development of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, demonstrate the centrality of oil to our foreign policy. Examine the following link for a quick synopsis of the crises. There is more than enough here to explain any effort to limit our dependence of fossil fuels. https://www.cfr.org/timeline/oil-dependence-and-us-foreign-policy
Oil is a treasure, in the past, now, and in the future. It has immensely benefited mankind and continues to do so. It is a blessing from Mother Nature. It has kept us warm, cooked our food, and allowed to to go places that our ancestors could only dream of. There is no good reason to stop producing and using oil. None. Period.
@Jonathan
“the government (and all institutions) is rarely quick to move in new directions when the status quo is benefitting them (i.e. fossil fuel companies/lobbyists and their gov’t expenditures).”
You are presuming that there are no or less benefits to government from alternative energy.
This is a wrong assumption. Fossil fuel companies are real companies requiring actual expertise to run very large scale, long term investment and operations. Very few politicians or government officials end up on fossil fuel company boards of directors.
Alternative energy companies, on the other hand, are tremendously dependent on government subsidies – and so many government officials and politicians end up as board members in alternative energy companies.
Dr. Curry… could you clarify… (or anyone can jump in)… I see NASA’s website saying meteorological satellite use began in 1960 … 22,000 pics were taken of earth that year alone. So, when you say satellite measurements of the poles began in 1980, I’m puzzled. ?
Cheers!
Judith. You wrote: “Greenland mass balance (snow accumulation minus melt) for July is above average relative to 1980-2010.”
Like many you fail to understand the difference between surface mass balance and total mass balance in ice sheets. The Greenland total mass balance is in a steady decline.
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/mass-and-height-change/
Jack
So why is the loss a problem?
Melting ice sheets contribute to sea level rise.
Box, J.E., Hubbard, A., Bahr, D.B. et al. Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12, 808–813 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2
Dr. Curry’s statement does not imply that she fails to understand the difference between area and volume.
Please answer Rob’s question. Why will some ice loss in Greenland matter one way or another?
I specifically defined the hydrological mass balance (see what is inside the parentheses). This is the part of the mass balance that directly responds to recent weather an overall summer climate during 2023
Dr. Curry,
“The exceptionally warm global temperature in 2023 is part of a trend of warming since 2015 that is associated primarily with greater absorption of solar radiation in the earth-atmosphere system. This increase in absorbed solar radiation is driven by a slow decline in springtime snow extent, but primary by a reduction in reflection from the atmosphere driven by reduced cloudiness and to a lesser extent a reduction in atmospheric aerosol. Any increase in the greenhouse effect from increasing CO2 (which impacts the longwave radiation budget) is lost in the noise.”
If you think that the greenhouse effect from increasing CO2 is “lost in the noise” since 2015, couldn’t that be also said for the whole extent of the warming trend? Why would the molecule suddenly be any different in 2015 than 1975? Also the world hasn’t warmed since 2015.
What is the message in this for Antonio Guterres? Are we really going to boil?
Caused by climate change? I read that in, ‘the Lahaina area they have been given the name of “lehua winds”‘… can reach 80 to 100 mph about every 8 to 12 years. Winds coming off volcanoes can cause tornadoes. Apparently, the fire in Maui was something waiting to happen since sugar cane production stopped over the years and completely in 2016 with natural grasses having completely taken over… that with the wind had the fire traveling a mile a minute…
I have a question about the eye-popping ERA5 global temperature anomaly in the Antarctic area in figure 4. It’s interesting that this strong anomaly parallels the near coastal area of Antarctica. How accurate are ERA5 SST data in near coastal areas as well as the merge and interpolation with land based stations?
According to ice core records, ice accumulations on Antarctica are most in warmest times, warmest times are necessary to maintain sequestered ice.
Fig 4 suffers from Mercator map projection issues near the South Pole. The anomalies are huge both plus and minus but not much can be gleaned from this. ERA and JRA data should be very good because both are weather model initializations which use the best possible real time data and are “dynamically balanced” so that the weather model will run well right out of the gate.
Thanks for a great article, Judy. It’s the best I’ve read about the anomalous warming this year.
I have very little to add. From a thermodynamic point of view, the energy has to come from somewhere. The source is almost certainly due to a reduction in albedo that decreases outgoing shortwave radiation, partially offset by an increase in outgoing longwave radiation. This decrease in albedo is almost certainly caused by a decrease in cloud cover, which also points to lower wind speed and less evaporation as the ultimate cause.
“The anomalous global ocean patterns of SST are dominated by surface wind anomalies (driven by atmospheric circulation patterns) that influence the amount of surface cooling from evaporation and sensible heat flux.”
This is very important. Many people believe that climate change is dominated by ocean currents, such as the AMOC, and their trends. Climate change is imposed on the ocean by the atmosphere. The atmosphere determines how much heat is removed from the ocean and where. The ocean simply provides thermal inertia to the climate. In general, changes in SLP precede changes in SST by one to three months.
Changes in the NH indicate a weakening of the wind circulation, as you say. The SST pattern and the lack of anomaly (positive or negative) in Arctic sea ice over the last 10 years suggests that the meridional circulation is not the main one affected, and points to a weakening of the zonal circulation due to the anomalous reduction in the north-south pressure difference indicated by the positive NAO. The weakening of the zonal circulation is responsible for the warming of the SST and the decrease in cloud cover that leads to the increase in energy. Ocean evaporation depends more on wind speed than on SST.
Because the atmosphere is chaotic and evolving rapidly, we are likely to see a reversal of the changes over the next few months, especially as the global circulation tilts after the equinox to transport more heat to the NH and the ITCZ moves into the SH.
What is happening in the SH could be derived from the Hunga-Tonga eruption. It clearly has the potential to affect the polar vortex and, due to the winter stratosphere-troposphere coupling, to affect the meridional wind circulation that causes the SST and sea ice anomalies. The early onset of the ozone hole is an indication of altered stratospheric circulation and perhaps ozone destruction by water vapor.
It is a very interesting year and we are learning a lot.
One might have thought that El Niño would cause the easterly circulation to stall and increase cloud cover over Hawaii. However, the forecasts were wrong. With an increase in solar wind power and energy added to the atmosphere in high latitudes, the easterly circulation remained.
https://i.ibb.co/p0mLGyY/mimictpw-global2-latest.gif
Hawaii remains in a zone of cool and dry northeast winds, as indicated by the negative sea surface anomaly.
When a hurricane approaches, the pressure differential will suddenly increase.
https://i.ibb.co/8xMCH0S/cdas-sflux-ssta-cpac-1.png
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/ep0823.gif
The only thing better than the .png science is the .gif science.
Don’t look a .gif horse in the mouth. It’s a .gif after all.
This is not my expertise; I am a retired PE with 45 years of practice, a score of nukes, two score carbon fueled power plants who has come to this. If fire, the combustion of carbon in air, is a danger to man then we are doomed. Energy is necessary for life and fire is the sole economical source of energy to sustain eight billion people. Uranium fission can help in advanced nations but requires skill sets unavailable to many nations. IMHO, the end result of climate change policies will be war.
On the technical issues, I note the article is silent on two facts which must dominate our climate. In the last few years, volcanic activity, heretofore unknown, have been found in western Antartica beneath the largest glaciers on earth. The heat is melting the rock/ice lock and they are beginning to slide from elevated heights, thereby raising the risk of a rising sea level. This was not discussed.
The second is that China, in recent years, has built hundreds of modern massive coal fired power plants in Africa, the Middle East and China. Their burn rate dwarfs the US signal. Thus if CO2 is a major contributor to climate change, this input should be quantified and discussed. It is not.
“… I note the article is silent on two facts which must dominate our climate. In the last few years, volcanic activity, heretofore unknown, have been found in western Antartica beneath the largest glaciers on earth.”
IPCC5 and IPCC6 have been silent on the geothermal activity in WAIS as well, despite a wealth of scientific literature on the subject. These are just a few of the studies identifying the possible effects of that activity.
“ We find good correspondence of surface heat flow with areas of tectonic and volcanic activity and zones of maximum change in ice dynamics”
“ It is common to attribute changes in the ice dynamics and subsequent ice loss to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. However, recent studies suggest a direct link between the location of the origin of ice streams and zones of increased heat flow…that allows us to consider GHF as an important factor in ice dynamics.”
“ …indicates a direct connection of deep lithospheric and surface processes. This is in agreement with elevated GHF found below Thwaites and Pope glaciers in a regional study of the Amundsen Sea Sector…”
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GC010501
“.. I conclude that the rate of Antarctica ice basal melting is significantly underestimated..”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825222000381
“ We show that the rapidly retreating Thwaites and Pope glaciers in particular are underlain by areas of largely elevated geothermal heat flow, which relates to the tectonic and magmatic history of the West Antarctic Rift System in this region. Our results imply that the behavior of this vulnerable sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is strongly coupled to the dynamics of the underlying lithosphere.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00242-3
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/4456b766-f316-405b-b550-343c91aea98b/ggge22402-fig-0001-m.jpg
When ground zero of magma heat in Antarctica is under the “Doomsday Glacier” and a purported scientific document is silent about that relationship, you know you don’t have a scientific document.
Thank you. Engineers ponder science, time and money.
It is reasonable to project rising sea levels due to this phenomena and thus plan for increased risk of coastal construction. Should land on Miami Beach sell for $1 per section? Should we fund rebuilding ocean front improvements? We do. A coal fired power plant is typically designed for a 30 year life; America’s several hundred are now scrap metal but must support our grids. We need them because we stopped building new ones while China has built 700 huge ones. Each American now owes some one else $100,000 due to our national debt and no one has any idea how to pay it off. IMHO, Americans are uninformed, irrational, and face insolvable energy policies.
The esteemed members of the Church of the Climate Doomers believe they will stop sea level rise, which is mostly actually subsidence, by building out wind turbines and solar panels.
Instead we should build cement plants near the coasts to supply cement for a sea dike. This concept is a proven one in the Netherlands. Then we should builds some coal plants along the coast to shore up the electricity supply there.
Limestone is a sponge. Dikes are impossible in Florida.
Well, Bob. Florida has lakes. How is it they stay full?
Funny they figured out how to use dikes in Florida over a hundred years ago, but now by some savage act of God, we can’t do it.
Herbert Hoover Dike (HHD) is a 143-mile earthen dam that surrounds Lake Okeechobee, the heart of the Kissimmee-Okeechobee-Everglades system. The project reduces impacts from flooding as a result of high lake levels for a large area of South Florida.
The first embankments around Lake Okeechobee were constructed by local interest from sand and muck, circa 1915. Hurricane tides overtopped the original embankments in 1926 and 1928, resulting in over 2,500 deaths.
https://winknews.com/2019/03/29/what-exactly-is-the-herbert-hoover-dike-and-why-is-it-important/
Wow Bob! Here’s a sea wall in Florida! It CAN be done! Try some optimism, Bob. You will be happier.
At just six feet above sea level, he lives in one of the lowest places in all of Delray Beach, an affluent city of 65,000 about an hour’s drive north of Miami.
In more than two decades, he’s seen hurricanes send water surging over his seawall and into his lawn. But now each fall during annual high tides, salt water creeps up into his garden and chokes his plants, even when there are no storms.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/01/us/sea-level-rise-costs-climate-change-florida/index.html
Well, Bob, I’m starting to think this is one of those ploys by the Church of Climate Doomers to make us think something bad coming due to global warming, but they are lying. Sort of like we will run out of fossil fuels 20 years ago or whatever.
Anyway, Bob, the changing relative level ‘tween land and sea in Florida is mostly due to subsidence. You can stop all the CO2 you please, but you can’t stop that.
Quote CNN “As the storm moved through South Carolina Wednesday night, the water level at the Charleston Harbor was higher than 9 feet, the National Weather Service said”.
Earth is presently straddled (conjunction) by Venus on sun-side and Moon plus Saturn opposite. At midnight US cities were directly under moon effect.
Storm Ian had Moon earth Jupiter conjunction.
Gravity more than CO2.
Intrigued by the ‘power plant’ perspective (being a bird of similar feather. Bird?, an old crow maybe) .
From another angle, this is the fifth interglacial in the last 500k years. The previous four were not much different. The earlier four started and ended in similar ways, so this may not be so different.
Yet nowhere is there evidence of large scale coal/carbon burning power plants in the earlier cycles. And not even in the first 12k years of this interglacial cycle. The driver of abrupt climate change is a very different beast.
@ R. L. Hails Sr. P. E. (Ret.)
pm received but your address does not function; system aborted reply.
I would be very interested in seeing figure 3 replicated for the period from 1900 to 1940. I think it would appear very similar.
The ozone hole appeared early this year, but this is not unusual. What is unusual is that over the past few years the ozone hole has set records from October to December. The role of water vapor is extremely debatable as the polar vortex grows in strength, and this is cutting off the flow of ozone over Antarctica.
https://i.ibb.co/vmd1xnj/ozone-hole-plot-N20.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_UGRD_MEAN_JAS_SH_2023.png
https://i.ibb.co/RcvR4vP/316542692-580914160702231-1574549551462342307-n.jpg
All these trends and phenomena associated with evidence of anomalous warming, but one thing is for sure, ABC.
He’s that stadium wave working out?
J
Be patient.
This partisan stalking behavior is so typical of anonymous, unqualified and highly biased internet personas. You comb a vast public opus of work and take out of context a couple sentences (and strip out any uncertainty statements). This is of course what was behind Red Baiting in the 1950’s and the current Censorship Industrial Complex and their twitter mob. But for Josh, why stop there. He also just flat out misrepresents what people say, scores of times on Climate Etc. alone.
Test
EXCELLENT analyses!
I especially appreciated the segment pointing to the turbulent flux to the north of Antarctica signifying stronger poleward winds. Most people I talk with are clueless that Antarctica’s sea ice extent is for the most part first year ice driven by the winds, not temperature. Stronger equator-ward winds cause greater sea ice extent in Antarctica’s winter but that thin new sea ice quickly melts each summer. Stronger poleward winds will always cause less sea ice extent.
I have a hypothesis:
Not only does more open water release heat, evaporation may increase precipitation causing ice mass increases on the continent and thickening of multi-year ice. The broken up young peripheral ice may also pile up and become multi year ice, increasing summer albedo.
https://x.com/aaronshem/status/1691610244428816721
Thanks for the time, effort and resources you put into that, Judith.
The is the first comprehensive, readable, understandable, and cogent explanation I have read. Based on Fig 5 “Global Mean Net Flux Anomaly,” 2023 is the culmination of changes taking place over the past 10 years. Does this analysis leave us in any better position to forecast the next 10 years; or to be more modest, forecast the next 6 months?
I find this conclusion puzzling: “The exceptionally warm global temperature in 2023 is part of a trend of warming since 2015 that is associated primarily with greater absorption of solar radiation in the earth-atmosphere system.”
Looking at Figs 2 & 3, I see no warming trend since 2016, just a long pause. Warmth, yes, but warming no.
To Mr. Wojick:
You have to use your Imagination to see a warming trend after 2016, or three martinis.
For myself, I would go for the three martinis except that I have had to give up alcohol altogether because of an acid reflex problem.
See ocean heat content.
Judith, (or anyone else)
Has anyone seen a comparison of Roy Spencer’s satellite data just for the continental US with the high quality surface data set for the US (USCRN) they set up almost 20 years ago? Can they (and do they) extract and plot just regional data for US instead of global for the satellite data? The CRN shows no evidence for temperature increase since 2005 for US at these stations.
Actually, the USCRN started in 2005, and per their figures at least, shows a trend of 0.29°C/decade since then …
w.
USCRN shows a warming trend from 2005 to 2016, and a relatively flat trend after 2016.
Should one trust NOAA’s USCRN?
I say no.
With completely different siting characteristics, the NOAA ClimDIV numbers and the NOAA USCRN numbers are suspiciously similar.
That suggests weather station siting does not matter.
But if weather station siting does not matter, then all the work of Anthony Watts on weather station siting issues may have been in vain.
In my opinion, Watts did excellent work detailing weather station siting issues.
And to me that means the great similarity of NOAAs ClimDIV and NOAAs USCRN is very suspicious, suggesting one or both of the indexes has been arbitrarily manipulated.
My bottom line is I do not trust USCRN simply because NOAA says I should trust USCRN.
PS: Of course, we all know government agencies are always honest, and would never try to deceive us. And if you agree, would you be interested in buying my 25% share of the Brooklyn Bridge as an investment?
I don’t understand why climate skeptics keep using that data. Richard is right. It’s suspicious to see that the two sets can match each other that closely. Homogenization among 96 percent of corrupted weather stations cannot get the same or similar results. Something fishy is going on. The claim that ClimDiv is being adjusted to match USCRN is a baseless claim.
Excellent analysis Judy.
Sunspot number dropped to 60 yesterday. We may be at the first peak of SC25. If SSN continues to fall for a while, it may prolong the el Nino event. Time will tell.
Greetings and thank you for referring to solar activity in this cycle. I agree that a decrease in solar activity will result in a weakening of the latitudinal circulation and a prolonged weak El Niño.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
I just do not understand why none of the so-called knowledgeable people can understand the simple facts of water properties and heat transfer.
Re: Ocean shipping SOx reduction
One would think the reduced SOx will improve air quality and reduce acid rain. However, to the extent some of the SOx is scrubbed and turned into scrubber solution I hope that is not a burden on ocean life and corals. Any negative impact would be blamed on climate change.
From what I’ve read ships’ scrubbers would create sodium sulfate or calcium sulfate. Sodium sulfate is soluble but adds nothing nefarious to the sea. Calcium sulfate, aka gypsum, is poorly soluble in water, but also adds no problematic ions to the water. The main problem with SOx reduction is that it adds expense to shipping.
Another interesting twist is that if “lime” is used, it has a special side product. Lime commonly is used to mean different molecules. It is made from limestone, CaC03. Get limestone hot enough and it releases CO2 to make CaO, aka quicklime. Add water to CaO to get Ca(OH)2, or slaked lime. Quicklime or slaked lime can be used to scrub SOx. But notice, the process releases CO2.
Basically everyone has migrated to low S fuels at additional cost.
Another aspect of using lime to scrub SOx is that probably a hydrocarbon fuel is used to make the quicklime or slaked lime. Two sources of CO2 in the scrubbing process.
This summer may also be caused by ENSO and AMO both in positive phases.
““No significant ENSO-driven atmospheric anomalies can be observed over the North Atlantic when ENSO and the AMO are out of phase (AMO−/El Niño and AMO+/La Niña). Further analysis indicates that the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) plays an essential role in this modulating effect. Because of broadly analogous TNA SSTA responses to both ENSO and the AMO during late winter, a warm SSTA in the TNA is evident when El Niño occurs during a positive AMO phase, resulting in a significantly weakened NAO, and vice versa when La Niña occurs during a negative AMO phase. In contrast, neither the TNA SSTA nor the NAO shows a prominent change under out-of-phase combinations of ENSO and AMO. ”
https://rclutz.files.wordpress.com/2023/07/amo-and-nao.png
From Zhang et al. (2019)
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/1/jcli-d-18-0365.1.xml
Pingback: State of the climate – summer 2023 • Watts Up With That?
I see that the UK’s Net Zero watch is carrying this post in its daily mail-out.
“Recent anomalies are introduced by external forcing from the Hunga-Tonga eruption in 2022 and the change in sulfate aerosol emissions from ship fuels which started in 2015 and was mandated in 2020.”
Amazing that there was an 18 month lag from the 2022 volcano until the hot July 2023 month.
Amazing that every variable that caused the post-1979 record high monthly absolute temperature in July 2023, did NOT cause record high temperatures in prior 2023 months.
Looks like all these climate change variables colluded, and then waited for July 2023 to act.
One month, by the way, is weather, not climate.
“The eruption of Hunga-Tonga volcano in 2022 is associated with a large injection of water vapor (impacting longwave) and smaller injection of sulfate particles (impacting shortwave). Early estimates of their impacts are 0.1 W m-2 for both shortwave and longwave effects, essentially cancelling out for zero impact on the global net radiative flux.”
A lot of people are missing the point here. The aerosol emissions from Hunga Tonga had probably dissipated entirely by this summer (aided by the moisture perturbation in the stratosphere), but the water vapour remained. Therefore it is reasonable to assume that by summer 2023, the positive water vapour LW forcing and negative aerosol SW forcing were no longer cancelling each other out, hence the sudden jump in global temperature in July 2023.
https://jaimejessop.substack.com/p/satellite-data-confirms-july-2023
“Amazing that there was an 18 month lag from the 2022 volcano until the hot July 2023 month.”
Not at all. The Mt. Tambora eruption of April 1815 caused the Year Without a Summer in 1816. The first signs that something was wrong with the weather were in late June 1816, 15 months after the eruption.
There was no global average temperature compilations in 1815, so you are stating a conclusion with no data. Science rquires data,
There is no known delayed effect of a volcano that would suddenly cause a large spike in ONE month’s temperature 18 months later, based on global average temperature data.
To Jessup
It is you who are missing the point by speaking of volcanoes in general rather than about this one specific, unusual volcano..
The Tonga eruption was unusual because instead it released a large amount of water vapor into the stratosphere – a powerful greenhouse gas – with little sulfur dioxide emissions.
SO2 emissions aerosols were unusually small with this underseas volcano and water vapor emissions were unusually large. The unusual amounts of both emissions could NOT have cancelled each other out.
It is not my conclusion and there is plenty of data about the Mt. Tambora eruption and its effects. It is not my fault if you haven’t bothered to look for the data reflected in many publications before forming an opinion. We have newspapers, station temperature measurements, marine temperature measurements in ship logs, and proxies. Your demand for a specific type of data that would convince you is irrelevant, because nobody cares what you believe.
Some of the main effects of 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption were delayed and came about abruptly at the end of spring the following year. Not my fault if you know little about dynamical effects of volcanic eruptions. Atmospheric circulation is very different in its summer and winter regimes. They transition from one to the other around the equinoxes. It is a good time for an important change. ENSO is an example. We know what is going to happen in ENSO after spring.
Averaging of climate data is always suspect. The relationship between temperature and radiation isn’t linear and the same average radiation can mean different average temperatures. (If you doubt me, calculate the radiation for 0 C and 35 C then take 40 W/m^2 from the radiation for the second and add it to the first, and finally convert to temperatures and average them.)
The other issue I have is the lack of mention of jet stream winds and upper level troughs that were widely reported as pulling hot air from North Africa up to the southern edge of Europe.
Claiming to know the effect of the supposed ship fuel changes and aerosols therefrom strikes me as speculative.
Pingback: State of the climate – summer 2023 • Watts Up With That? - Lead Right News
This was written:
The Arctic sea ice is healthy – Arctic sea ice extent for July was only the twelfth lowest in the satellite record. Greenland mass balance (snow accumulation minus melt) for July is above average relative to 1980-2010. The Antarctic is a different story. Antarctic winter sea ice is extremely low, much lower than any wintertime observations since the beginning of the satellite record in 1980.
As if the state of a “lot of sea ice is Healthy and a lack of sea ice is Unhealthy”.
Ice core records show that the sequestered ice on land is replenished fastest when the polar oceans are warmest and therefore when sea ice is the least. Times of low sea ice are healthy for maintaining ice on land in polar regions and preventing sea level rise.
This is a dynamic cycle, low sea ice promotes evaporation and snowfall and sequestering of ice.
The more ice promotes ice flowing into the oceans to form sea ice and pause the sequestering of ice.
These alternating states are natural and normal and healthy.
Climate consensus promotes a static energy balance system that has never been evident in past data and will never actually happen.
Dr. Judith, first, thanks for a most interesting post. And second but no less important, thanks as always for your marvelous blog.
However, I must question this:
Here are the records:
HadCRUT5, Jan 2015 May 2023 Trend = -0.03°C/decade
Berkeley Earth, Jan 2015 Mar 2023 Trend = -0.02°C/decade
Japanese Met, Jan 2015 Dec 2022 Trend = -0.19°C/decade
UAH MSU TLT, Jan 2015 July 2023 Trend = -0.03°C/decade
GISS, Jan 2015 July 2023 Trend = -0.01°C/decade
RSS MSU TLT, Jan 2015 July 2023 Trend = -0.04°C/decade
HOWEVER, and this is why I don’t trust reanalysis “data” …
ERA5, Jan 2015 July 2023 Trend = +0.16°C/decade
Sorry, not seeing the “trend of warming since 2015” except in the bogus “reanalysis” …
My very best to you, keep fighting the good fight,
w.
Willis – UAH TLT is composed of month-based anomalies. Each month has its own baseline mean. Because of this, it is not possible to determine a proper trend from that data. To get the proper trend, you need an “absolute” temperature. Or at least a series where the same mean is subtracted from each month.
UAH do publish the subtracted “climatology” but if you are calculating a trend across completer years this cannot affect the trend.
Even if you use actual temperatures (absolute temp means something else) , if you calculate a trend on anything but complete years, over a limited length of time you will get a bais. This will be worse than doing the same thing with anomaly data.
@climategrog – the July ’23 anomaly is less than the 2016 one. But July ’23 was the hottest month in the UAH record. I don’t believe you can get a meaningful trend from the anomaly data. In fact, if you look at the anomaly file, you will see trends calculated by month. In fact, that’s the only way to get meaningful trends from this data. See the trends near the bottom of the page, here …
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
jim2, you say:
“Each month has its own baseline mean.”
and that we need:
“… a series where the same mean is subtracted from each month.”
I have no idea what that means. AFAIK, the UAH TLT is the residual when the monthly climatology (available at their website) is subtracted from the raw data. In other words, the same mean IS subtracted from each month.
You’re the first person I’ve ever seen claiming that we can’t get a trend from the UAH TLT data … what are you basing that claim on? Links, please …
w.
Very good point Willis. This seems to be the new trend in climate propaganda. Recent declarations of “record” heatwaves in southern Europe were all done using NCEP reanalysis “data” not actual measured data.
Hi Willis – I would like to say I appreciate your work.
If I could supply a link to my brain, I might.
All the Januarys in the base period are averaged together. Then, base period January mean is subtracted from each January in the data set. This produces the January anomaly.
This procedure is applied for each month.
Therefore, each month has its own unique mean from the base period. There are 12 means in use, not one over the entire base period.
Because of this, performing a linear regression on the anomaly data will not produce a meaningful trend.
If you open the file below, you will see UAH have determined a trend for EACH MONTH, not the entire dataset at once.
I suppose I may be missing something, but if July ’23 was the hottest month in the UAH dataset, but the July ’23 anomaly IS NOT the hottest, I don’t see how a LR over the whole dataset will be valid either.
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
Willis – UAH uses a mean for each month because this technique removes seasonal variations from the anomalies.
Here is a simplified analysis to illustrate the problem with monthly anomalies.
Consider a function, the domain of which is {1,2,3,4,5,6} and the range is {2,4,6,8,10,12}.
The rise is 12-2 = 10.
Let {6,8} represent the base “months” Converting the function to “monthly” anomalies, we get {-4,-4,0,0,4,4}.
The rise is 4 – (-4) = 8.
But Herman, didn’t you get the memo? It clearly said:
“WARMING BAD, COOLING GOOD!!!”
Gonna get yourself canceled for wrongthink …
w.
Willis
Any change from their “optimized static balance” is considered bad.
But climate has always been changing, it has never achieved and held an “optimized static balance”.
Excellent job!!!! Hope other “knowledgeable people” leave the opportunism and propaganda aside.
” The Twomey effect and total cloud adjustment
contribute −0.77 ± 0.25 W m-2 and −1.02 ± 0.43 W m-2, respectively, to the effective radiative forcing since 1850 over the
domain (95% confidence). ”
” The Sixth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the Twomey effect is −0.7 ±
0.5 W m-2, the adjustment of liquid water path (LWP) is +0.2 ± 0.2 W m-2, and the adjustment of liquid-cloud fraction is
−0.5 ± 0.4 W m-2 (90% CIs for forcing between 1750 and 2014) (Forster et al., 2021).”
https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1436/egusphere-2023-1436.pdf [LOOK at the figure 4 !!!!]
“It suggests that current clean-air policies and replacement of coal by natural gas
are driving a significant human made climatic event, 2–4 times faster than greenhouse driven warming alone.”
https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2018-83/esd-2018-83.pdf
“From the spatial maps, it is clear that the primary responses are over the oceans and that low liquid clouds are mainly responsible for the change in net radiative forcing. The global response in net radiation to the average of the five strongest FD is approximately 2 W/m2.”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8505444/
Not only does more open water release heat, evaporation may increase precipitation causing ice mass increases on the continent and thickening of multi-year ice. The broken up young peripheral ice may also pile up and become multi year ice, increasing summer albedo.
“The eruption of Hunga-Tonga volcano in 2022 is associated with a large injection of water vapor (impacting longwave) and smaller injection of sulfate particles (impacting shortwave). Early estimates of their impacts are 0.1 W m-2 for both shortwave and longwave effects, essentially cancelling out for zero impact on the global net radiative flux.”
There’s an obvious point to be made here. The aerosol emissions from Hunga Tonga had probably dissipated entirely by this summer (made more rapid by the massive moisture perturbation in the stratosphere), but the water vapour remained. Therefore it is reasonable to assume that by summer 2023, the positive water vapour LW forcing and negative aerosol SW forcing were no longer cancelling each other out, hence the sudden jump in global temperature in July 2023.
https://jaimejessop.substack.com/p/satellite-data-confirms-july-2023
Mr Jessop claimed;
“Therefore it is reasonable to assume that by summer 2023, the positive water vapour LW forcing and negative aerosol SW forcing were no longer cancelling each other out, hence the sudden jump in global temperature in July 2023.”
So, did the January 2022 aerosols suddenly “fall out of the sky: at the end of June 2023, causing a sudden large spike in the global average temperature in July 2023. Do you expect sensible people to believe that?
“The strong positive stratospheric aerosol anomaly from HT-HH has already substantially abated, and, assuming no further major perturbations, stratospheric aerosol loading is expected to return to pre-eruption levels by around mid-2023 (Khaykin et al., 2022).” https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039169
Did you even read my Substack article? Obviously not, judging by the content of your comment.
There is an oriental proverb that says you can look in all the directions you may wish to for as long as it takes to satisfy your curiosity but if you do not even once look in the right place you will never find the clues required to continue the search to find the answer you are seeking.
Mankind cannot even find a lost aircraft let alone establish clear ways of reckoning weather to within a realistic fraction of what actually occurs within, say, a given fifty mile square. Climate continues to be a guessing game and yet there are those prepared to kid themselves we have already looked where the clues are, have found the answers, and all is understood and settled. Unfortunately the politicians in command of stuff are bigger bigots and idiots than the consensus science guys ever were, and collectively nobody knows when to stop their scaremongering.
This article helps to show just how many places we may have looked at too closely at the expense of taking a completely different view elsewhere and finding a refreshingly different and potentially uplifting way of increasing our knowledge..
Infinty and randomness have always been tough taskmasters. We need to be better as a species, much more humble before nature and start looking in places we have never thought of looking in. If nature can produce explosive energy to order every second of every day then are we humans really capable of changing climate in any meaningful way? There are clues and a straightforward answer to that question which, as yet, we haven’t a hope of finding..
I like that oriental proverb, but don’t get me started on why we cannot find that lost aircraft (forms of denial). Do you have a reference on the proverb?
Two hurricanes in the eastern Pacific will pass south of Hawaii.
https://i.ibb.co/D47FmgP/mimictpw-epac-latest.gif
Unintended consequences once again for the climate warriors.
Just like with Clean air act, reducing real atm pollution results is clearer skies and MORE global warming. They then start wailing that it’s “worse than we thought” and WE MUST ACT NOW.
“There is an overall increasing trend (consistent with an overall warming of global temperatures).”
There is an overall increasing trend which is an indication of a potential for increasing energy content in all constitutes of Earth’s climate systems, including consistency with an overall warming of global temperatures.
The hurricane will bring heavy rainfall to the mountains of California. This could be the beginning of El Niño’s impact. Is California prepared?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/08/20/1300Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=precip_3hr/orthographic=247.75,30.64,1470
Biden’s lie-of-a-name IRA, actually a climate change act, may cost the taxpayer dearly. What a pathetic waste.
A Year Into Biden’s Climate Agenda, the Price Tag Remains Mysterious
The uncapped incentives of the Inflation Reduction Act mean spending sparked by the historic US climate law could triple initial estimates and push past $1 trillion.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-16/total-cost-of-joe-biden-s-inflation-reduction-act-is-rising-one-year-later
The IRA is mostly synthetic capital (tax credits). High interest rates and inflation will slash the actual deployed infrastructure to slightly more than 50% of what was hoped.
As bad as it the IRA seems it is a better waste of money than the 8 trillion we spent on the War on Terror. Maybe the best way to spin it is to think of it as insurance just in case our #1 petroleum reserves in the Permian basin keeps declining.
“CALGARY, Alberta (Aug. 15, 2023) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) has released a new report that examines how oil decline profiles have steepened across U.S. shale oil plays over the last decade.
The U.S. shale industry has been massively successful, roughly doubling the production out of the average oil well over the last decade, but that trend has slowed in recent years.
In addition, we’ve observed that declines curves, meaning the rate at which production falls over time, are getting steeper as well density increases. Summed up, the industry’s treadmill is speeding up and this will make production growth more difficult than it was in the past.
Key takeaways:
Even though recoveries from the average U.S. shale oil well have doubled in the past decade, production profiles for the average well have steepened more than half of a percentage point annually since 2010.
In the Permian, home to most U.S. oil output, the average Midland Basin oil production profile has steepened by 0.5 of a percentage point each year since 2014. The Delaware Basin has steepened by even more since that time.
EIR expects Permian-type curve shapes to continue to steepen over time as the basin gets more densely developed. As a result, average breakeven prices will rise.
Unless we default on our debt, that “synthetic” money will have to be replaced by what passes for real money these daze. It will cost us no matter how you spin it.
Speaking of synthetic money did you see where the 45th president has added $500,000 of crypto to his balance sheet? Can’t wait to see how long it takes to convince his followers to pour their life savings in to crypto. But what do I know? I missed out on his limited edition of Trump NFT cards.
More interesting than crypto is the movement by the BRICS to create their own commodity-backed trading currency. If they are successful, we will no longer be able to manipulate them via our dollars. Also, we will, more and more, feel the effects of our profligate spending, devaluation of the dollar, and inflation.
The jet streams are also influenced by planetary waves — ripples in the atmosphere akin to the undulations that arise when you drop a stone into a pond. Such disruptions can come from storms associated with global weather patterns, like El Niño and the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
These ripples had a hand in the weather last winter, when seemingly endless storms drenched California. That’s because the waves, also known as Rossby waves, interact with the jet streams.
“A jet stream that is very wavy is basically the signature of a Rossby wave being present,” said Kai Kornhuber, a climate scientist at Climate Analytics and Columbia University.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/weather/article/california-heat-climate-change-18265220.php
This comment addresses two issues. That there is consensus across the board about AGW and that it might be misleading to rely only on the observation period for development of risk analysis. In fact there is considerable debate within the climate science community about most areas under investigation and there is evidence that the observational period is too short to come to conclusions about what long term trends have been.
While the topic is the IPO, the issues raised in this paper transcend into all aspects of climate science.
“ Mann et al.20 built on a range of prior and contemporaneous work examining internal, natural/volcanic and anthropogenic aerosol forcing of decadal variability and found that the past 150 years of observational data show little evidence of internal multi-decadal-scale modes of variability such as the AMO and by extension the IPO…… Nonetheless, the role that internal variability may play in IPO phase changes remains contentious. Our study demonstrates that contrary to what has been assumed in the literature, Common Era PDV does not vary in a way that results in roughly equal periods of time in positive to negative phases. The implications of PDV exhibiting only infrequent departures to a negative state and the highly unusual nature of the mid-20th century negative IPO phase have quantifiable implications, as phase changes and phase frequency have profound effects on climate risk and the management of the climate outcomes that occur across and beyond the Pacific Basin.
We recommend the climate risks inherent to predominantly neutral-positive PDV should be the basis of overall risk assessment for climate risk scientists and practitioners investigating PDV-initiated climatic risk across the Pacific Basin. However, equally important is determining what initiates negative IPO phases in the climate system, the forcing required to maintain them, and any related anthropogenic aerosol and GHG effect. When considering decadal or longer projections of climate change, we suggest it is important to analyse the statistics of negative, positive and neutral-positive phases from long (> 500 years) palaeoclimate reconstructions of PDV, given the change in prevalence of negative phases in the last 661 years compared to the prior 1350 years.
Lastly, two possibilities for future PDV behaviour should be considered. One is that PDV will revert to its long-term predominantly neutral-positive state as represented by the Common Era reconstructions, meaning climate risk analyses using mid-20th century observations are questionable. Alternatively, the mid-20th century IPO negative phase anomaly (compared to the Common Era reconstruction) may actually represent a transition to a new normal, raising different but equivalent concerns about risk estimation in an era of more frequent and/or longer negative IPO phases.”
Note the change in prevalence of negative phases in the last 661 years compared to the prior 1350 years. If assumptions are being made about decadal trends during only the observational period, then that could be misleading and missing centennial trends.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00359-z
Great comprehensive analysis, but it misses the indirect solar forcing of the negative NAO anomalies. Negative NAO conditions being the reverse of what circulation models predict that rising CO2 forcing does to the NAO.
https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-5-6.html
Figure 10:
Surface Net Radiation = Net SW + Net LW
Surface Net Radiation = Turbulent Flux + ΔStorage
ΔStorage = Surface Net Radiation – Turbulent Flux
in other words – it’s unsurprising the Surface Net resembles the Turbulent Flux.
To get the residual change in (sub) surface storage, the Turbulent Flux should be subtracted from Net Sfc Radiation, No?
Turbulent fluxes are conventionally described as being upward, away from the surface.
The issue here (I think) is whether this is a unique one-time event – a spurious outlier, or whether it portends reaching upward to future unprecedented temperature gains. The article as presented seemed to me to lean toward the unique one-time event belief, but I wasn’t sure. The 2016 event was clearly a one-time event but it left behind it a new higher temperature plateau: The plateau after 2016 was about 0.25 degree higher than the previous plateau. See Figure 2. It seems likely that the 2023 event might leave behind it a higher temperature plateau starting in 2024?
It may not be a unique one time event but still not be related to higher CO2 concentrations.
If the plateaus after the one-time events, (like 1998 and 2016), are caused by the one-time events isn’t this an indication then of a positive feedback ratcheting effect? If so, what in the climate system is sustaining the plateau, albedo reduction from receded ice, added GHG, change in cloud formation, change in meridional transport, other factors? If so, do any models capture this?
Models predict ramps, not staircases
Thanks. I know some models claim to simulate natural variability like an ENSO flip but there is no stair step afterwards. Do you think the observed stair step trend is just an artifact or indicating a physical feedback that is not well understood?
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your hypotheses are fascinating and much more scientifically explained as compared to the rubber stamp climate scare/purchased climatologists’ circular logic. Thank you.
Can anyone point me to a graph of annual global temperatures for the last ~1500 years overlaid with a graph of what the temperature would have been absent any impact from humans? I realize the graph without impact from humans would have to be from models. Thanks.
Two more hurricanes will pass south of Hawaii, close enough to increase wind gusts on the islands. A third hurricane that is forming off Mexico will reach California.
https://i.ibb.co/wgdGck3/pobrane.png
To reiterate, water in the stratosphere, as well as the ozone layer and CO2 as greenhouse gases retain some of the sun’s radiation and therefore have a cooling effect on the surface, while the addition of large amounts of water vapor in the troposphere in the tropics increases the temperature in the troposphere.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_EQ_2023.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_NH_2023.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_SH_2023.png
We see a very latitudinal jet stream in the southern hemisphere. This indicates a strong southern stratospheric polar vortex. If the polar vortex is not disturbed by planetary waves, it will be a typical winter in the southern hemisphere.
https://i.ibb.co/hFBYMnq/Zrzut-ekranu-2023-08-17-105439.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_JAS_SH_2023.png
70 hPa ~17,500 m, stratosphere
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/conic_equidistant=-330.00,0.00,154
@ CMS:
It takes very little knowledge of the history of food, and its role in wars, and geopolitical crises since the early parts of the last century, to appreciate why US dependence on food is something that is more than problematic. In the Civil War of the US, the North burned the crop fields of the South, and that certainly isn’t the first time in history. Now we have the war in Ukraine and the use of wheat as a pawn. Do you, CMS, now recommend we break our dependency on food?
There are other commodities that have been used to manipulate others.
What about the dollar? We us it to manipulate other countries all the time. Have you heard the news about the Russian oligarchs? Should the US break its dependency on the dollar?
Seems like you have cherry picked oil. Oil is a great blessing. Leave it alone.
This is an argument for energy independence, not getting off oil. But the case I make is the acknowledged dependence of modern civilization on it. Just like burning crops, having to import it, especially from potential foes, has serious consequences. Look at Germany during WWII.
We became a net exporter under Trump. The only reason we have to import heavy crude now is because that’s what refineries were designed for, although I suspect over the years the refineries have added capability to process lighter crudes. Whatever is still in refineries for heavy crude can be modified … it’s not set in stone.
Also, nuclear plants, large and small, are a good investment for energy independence.
“Oil is a great blessing”
Economically correct. Biden currently enjoys a strong economy due to trump opening up US federal lands to oil production. Biden has restricted now production.
Restricting US production does nothing for the environment but hurts the US economically. We still consume as much oil but send 10’s of billions overseas to purchase it. Those same billions left in the US, greatly stimulate the US economy.
I am not a republican, but the democrat’s energy policy is NUTS.
“Beginning Saturday, heavy rain will begin to affect Southern California, southern Nevada and western and central Arizona, AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said. As the rain pours down, incidents of flash flooding, mudslides and debris flows will ramp up.
The intensity of the downpours will likely result in road closures over the mountains and deserts. Normally dry canyons and stream beds, called arroyos, may rapidly fill with rushing water and could pose a danger to hikers and motorists.”
The Ice age begins with the oceans at their lowest.
Nature takes the ice from the continents as water in the oceans and the heat in the atmosphere as water vapor. When the radiant heat lost to the Black Sky equals that melting to water plus that flashing to water vapor the oceans stop rising. That is where things were on September 28, 2022.
Since then, Nature has been flashing water to water vapor and dropping it to the earth surface as rain, or higher and dropping it as frozen water.this is the fast way Nature has to quickly add or remove heat.
At the same time the Ice blocks are gradually being melted from the bottom, breaking off, and slowly adding heat to the earth’s environment.
The Ice Blocks control the length of the Ice Age!!!!!
Bottom line. There are many theories about what causes ice ages, but nobody really knows. It is foolish to claim otherwise.
My explanation is all High School science.
The odd part is the 28-degree farenheight saturated salt water is eating horizontally between the bottom of the ice block and earth. As it melts the lighter fresh water, salt dropped out as it warmed to 32-degree fresh water, fought its way back.
The broken off glaciers can sit there for years until they break apart and get thin enough to floatc
Warming from 2014 rather than from 2015 would make more sense. There was an El Nino episode 2014-2015.
One thing that appears to have been true the past decade or so is that Arctic Sea Ice- and Antarctic Sea Ice anomalies tend to be out of phase. When the great hoo-hah about declining Arctic Sea Ice was raging, Antarctic Sea Ice extents were at record levels for the satellite era. Now that Arctic Sea Ice seems to be recovering slowly but steadily, the Antarctic Sea Ice levels are much lower.
This may of course be coincidence, but it does to me suggest that global sea ice levels vary much, much less in percentage terms on an annual/decadal basis than does the relatively small pool of ice in the Arctic area.
Climate catastrophists never liked me pointing this out, any more than they like me pointing out that 44 years of data is not even one complete cycle of Pacific Decadal Oscillation flip-flops.
One thing I’ve learned about schemers over the years is that they opportunistically use short-term variations to claim truths which over the longer term simply aren’t present.
Would hav been enlightening to ad a graph showing both global cloud cover (%) and global temperature, like the one that can be found at http://www.climate4you.com menu label climate+clouds.
You just copied my figures and analyses and left out the 4 W/m² greenhouse gas forcing. This shows you bad intentions.
That’s a bit provocative Leon!
“Any increase in the greenhouse effect from increasing CO2 (which impacts the longwave radiation budget) is lost in the noise”.
Sure. That works if your perspective is only the last seven or eight years.
“Arctic sea ice is healthy”
I’m going to have to quibble with that assessment Judith. I’ve just been blogging about how the southern routes through the Northwest Passage are now essentially sea ice free:
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/06/the-northwest-passage-in-2023/#Aug-17
Route 1 through the Parry Channel looks like to follow in the near future.
“The exceptionally warm global temperature in 2023 is part of a trend of warming since 2015 that is associated primarily with greater absorption of solar radiation in the earth-atmosphere system. This increase in absorbed solar radiation is driven by a slow decline in springtime snow extent, but primary by a reduction in reflection from the atmosphere driven by reduced cloudiness and to a lesser extent a reduction in atmospheric aerosol. Any increase in the greenhouse effect from increasing CO2 (which impacts the longwave radiation budget) is lost in the noise.”
“Put simply, in response to external
forcing in LW and SW radiation, Earth has a stabilizing feedback
only in the LW and not in the SW, so the planet accumulates heat
in the SW.” https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/12/JCLI-D-22-0555.1.xml
This is a very important study in view of changes in shortwave solar radiation.
https://www.iup.uni-bremen.de/gome/solar/mgii_composite_2.png
The Planet Surface Rotational Warming Phenomenon significantly amplifies the Earth surface temperature.
Nice Article here.
https://berkeleyearth.org/are-temperatures-this-summer-hotter-than-scientists-expected/?mc_cid=97ca863445&mc_eid=018b05f26e
From Zeke
Even if we assume that humans have an impact on the Earth’s temperature, they certainly do not have an impact on the Sun and the types of solar radiation. The Sun is not a stable star, and it is constantly evolving and changing magnetic activity.
The dry troposphere is almost completely transparent to solar radiation. Clouds, for example, capture a considerable range of UV radiation, which strongly warms the surface. We can easily check this by going outside in dry, sunny weather.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_EQ_2023.png
What are you trying to say?
The fact that the Earth’s troposphere is very thin and its mass can vary over a very small range, as can the global temperature.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_SH_2022.png
If someone is worried about the ice in Antarctica, there is no reason.
https://i.ibb.co/QDTRcfH/zt-sh.gif
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This does not appear to be a peer reviewed scientific paper, but simply a blog post – albeit a detailed one. Please could you post a link to the peer reviewed paper it is based on? Or if you have not produced such a paper, to an authoritative submission from a respected research institution and published in an authoritative scientific journal that dismisses anthropocentric climate change? Thank you.
So, you want a pal-reviewed paper. LOL!!!!
Roger
Are you familiar with the peer review process for papers on the climate today. Do you think it would have added value? What points raised do you think are subject to criticism? Isn’t the speed of access important?
Roger –
A) the peer review process normally takes 3-18 months. Far too early to have a “peer reviewed” paper on the subject.
B) given the quality of peer review these days, especially if the study is not following the script, it would not be prudent to put too much faith in “peer review”
Zeke Hausfather’s post makes identical points as the Dr. Curry, et. al blog post — with one major exception: Dr. Curry says that CO2 emissions has only a noise effect while Zeke says it is having an important effect. https://berkeleyearth.org/are-temperatures-this-summer-hotter-than-scientists-expected/?mc_cid=97ca863445&mc_eid=018b05f26e
There hasn’t been a very large jump in CO2 levels, those increase at a fairly steady rate. So how would CO2 account for the jump? I don’t see how it could. The big difference is Tonga-Hunga.
Zeke may be taking advantage of T-H to claim the climate models are correct. It would be nice to know what would have happened lacking T-H, but we can’t. The climate models generally were running hot up until this event. This is why climate science is crippled from an experimental point of view.
I’m not seeing where Zeke makes a compelling argument the recent jump in global temps is due to CO2.
“So how would CO2 account for the jump? I don’t see how it could.”
Start here: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2023/08/12/climate-change-and-extreme-heat/#comment-108494
Fizzy, I see the idea on “Open” mind, but that still isn’t a jump. It is a smooth change, albeit not linear.
From Zeke’s article.
“ Climate change is real, caused by human activity, and is increasingly damaging to society. The world will not stop warming until our emissions of CO2 get down to (net) zero. We know it’s going to get worse as long as we keep emitting CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Just because things are not “worse than we thought” in terms of global temperatures does not mean that the problem is not severe and getting worse.”
Zeke’s analysis is unsophisticated and overly simplistic. It is warming. In spite of the IPCC proclamation there are still legitimate questions about how much of the warming is CO2 related. To do so ignores the paleo research, the hundreds of studies identifying solar as a factor and other possible causes. In spite of the best efforts by scientists, what fraction of the warming is CO2 related is at this point unknowable.
Another challenge is to determine how much of the damage is heat related, irrespective of the attribution issue. Forest fires in California have a whole list of possible causes. From the growing wildland/urban interface, to location of electrical grids, to population explosion, to timber management, to invasive combustible vegetation, etc.
When there are floods we have to ask how much of that flooding was because of extreme precipitation events versus increases in impervious surfaces in urban areas and alterations to the floodplains that reduces the absorptive capacity of that location.
The same goes for attributing sea level rise to CO2 when oceans have been rising for 200 years and a fraction of the relative SLR is natural and man made subsidence.
Just because it is warming doesn’t necessarily mean CO2, is the sole culprit. Just because there are damages to society doesn’t necessarily mean it comes from a warming world.
The tragedy in Hawaii is a case in point. The deaths could be attributed to incompetent officials. The fire could be attributed to invasive species and poor land management and lack of regulation of electrical facilities. The high winds could be attributed to natural variability. The chain of causality back to CO2 is really a stretch.
Zeke Hausfather is a classic liberal climate alarmist.
Appeal to authority is an argumentative fallacy. If you or someone you know has the expertise to refute any of the data supplied (and there is a lot) and the conclusions made from said data, than do so. Or be quiet.
Jason D — Are you saying with your comment (i.e., to be quiet), that I should not have posted Zeke’s article (and associated others from BE)?
I think it was fine to post the link to Zeke’s comment.
I will note that Zeke’s post starts out with the obligatory blaming of CO2 which tends to highlight the agenda first and the facts secondary.
The rainy season has arrived in the western US. Tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea.
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Hurricane Hilary’s plume reaches southern California.
https://i.ibb.co/8xWWHmB/goes18-wv-rgb-09-E-202308200635.gif
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The pendulum always swings back.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-ceo-who-doesnt-equivocate-about-climate-global-warming-net-zero-emissions-ceo-corporate-e21a5d40?st=un6smsi1zulrvkn&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Tropical Storm Hilary is moving north over the mountains of California into Nevada.
https://i.ibb.co/R0yR4pQ/goes18-wv-rgb-09-E-202308210315.gif
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my only concern about this is that politisc twinkle with variables they scarcely know how will interact with the overall climate system.Maybe they were proudly baining sulfur emmisions, and obtained votes for this,but the actual respnse of climate system didnt go the way they assumed.. And this is due to Scientists that surrond them playing Oz Magizian.thanks you
Hi, John blacker (physics) here from Lancaster UK. It is my thesis we live in a binary star system with the other star being a Brown Dwarf with 7 orbiting satellites. I have been presenting evidence by unofficial channels and I am informed unofficially that some Governments have known about this binary star situation since 1983.
The good news is we are all going to be OK but, there may be extremes of volcanic activity and the core will likely heat up as will cores within other bodies due to induction and interaction between our sun and this intruder Brown Dwarf.
You will observe the intruder with southern facing infra-red telescopes.
good luck
jb
PS – I think this is very good work.
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Way too much for me to follow. Please, short answer: How much of this is attributable to CO2 driven warming?
Mike
Most likely that CO2 change was overwhelmed by other factors in a chaotic system.
My sunspot-based temperature prediction model suggests near zero contribution from CO2. On my github page I show as much as 0.2 °C from anthropogenic CO2, That was using NOAA temperature data. With HadCRUT5 data from the UK, the CO2 contribution dropped to 0.08 °C total over the last century. Why am I not surprised? This is not the first time I’ve felt that NOAA has put their thumb on the scale with climate data.
I hope to update the github page in a week or two with new plots and code that uses HadCRUT5 data.
https://github.com/bobf34/GlobalWarming
Mike –
This sand castle https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b44ruhi5ji4 was wiped out by an anomalous wave, which was caused by an unusual wind pattern, passing ships at sea, the particular configuration of the approach to the beach, and the chaotic interaction of multiple previous waves.
Nothing to do with a rising tide. :-)
Tropical storm attacks in south Texas.
https://i.ibb.co/ysck9Z8/goes16-wv-rgb-09-L-202308211812.gif
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Contrary to impending doom about Antarctica contribution to SLR found in the MSM, the actual science is more measured, cautious and focused on non AGW factors and natural variability.
“Our results suggest that sustained pulses of rapid retreat have occurred at Thwaites Glacier in the past two centuries.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-01019-9
While some papers see collapse of Thwaites in 200 to 1000 years others don’t see the same threat.
“The glacier has already entered the early stages of collapse, and rapid and irreversible collapse is likely in the next 200 to 1000 years.”
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1249055
“ Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre….. We conclude that previous interpretations of these MICI projections over-estimate sea-level rise this century; because the MICI hypothesis is not well constrained, confidence in projections with MICI would require a greater range of observationally constrained models of ice-shelf vulnerability and ice-cliff collapse. By better quantifying uncertainties for marine ice-cliff instability, future Antarctic ice loss is predicted to be much lower than previously estimated.”
https://go.gale.com/ps/i.do?id=GALE%7CA573274293&sid=googleScholar&v=2.1&it=r&linkaccess=abs&issn=00280836&p=HRCA&sw=w&userGroupName=anon%7Ee4033708
“ Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3103
Discussions about the subglacial dynamics and geologic conditions within the Amundsen Sea region are frequent.
“In the context of Holocene changes to the Thwaites Glacier margin, it is likely that subglacial drainage enhanced submarine melt along the grounding zone and amplified ice-shelf melt driven by oceanic processes, consistent with observations of other West Antarctic glaciers today. This study highlights the necessity of accounting for the influence of subglacial hydrology on grounding-zone and ice-shelf melt in projections of future behavior of the Thwaites Glacier ice margin and marine-based glaciers around the Antarctic continent.”
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.863200/full
“Fundamental dynamical differences emerge as a consequence of atmospheric forcing, eustatic sea level and continental shelf evolution. We show that the AIS contributed to the amplification of its own sensitivity to ocean forcing by gradually expanding and eroding the continental shelf, that probably changed its tipping points through time. The lack of past topographic and bathymetric reconstructions implies that so far, we still have an incomplete understanding of AIS fast response to past warm climate conditions, which is crucial to constrain its future evolution.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-29718-7
“These observations demonstrate how discontinuous ice retreat is linked with ocean variability, and that the strength and timing of decadal extremes is more influential than changes in the longer-term mean state. The nonlinear response of melting to temperature change heightens the sensitivity of Amundsen Sea ice shelves to such variability, possibly explaining the vulnerability of the ice sheet in that sector, where subsurface ocean temperatures are relatively high.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0207-4
I doubt there will be coverage about ice shelves growing, albeit extremely small.
“Our results show that, over the 11 years from 2009 to 2019, ice shelves in Antarctica gained a modest 0.4 %…of their total ice area”
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/2059/2023/
Shelf icebergs melt very slowly and actually cool the ocean in their surroundings, which provide excellent habitat for many marine animals and diatoms.
In the book about cats: “Tribe of the Tiger” the author mentions that she walks every morning from her home to her studio a few blocks away. Her dogs run along side of her while her cats meander this way and that, but the cats and dogs arrive together at the same time. Think of the dogs as CO2. They are many steady and predictable. Think of the cats as global average temperature (GAT). The GAT wanders around but eventually it catches up and the GAT and CO2 find each other.
You don’t see that in Antarctica.
https://niwa.co.nz/sites/niwa.co.nz/files/styles/media_gallery_large/public/sites/default/files/images/co2-temp-ice-cores.jpg?itok=pBHatpZO
In the series of ice ages, the temperature drives the CO2, not vice versa. But they do come together
This has not been seen in the recent period. The temperature in Antarctica is no more rising than in previous eras, despite the high spike in CO2.
Is that because the ocean is slow to heat? It has to get hotter to release CO2.
Ireneusz: You might visit
https://www.amazon.com/Ice-Ages-Interglacials-Measurements-Interpretation/dp/3030104656/ref=sr_1_1?crid=7K3HWLVUMADT&keywords=rapp+ice+ages&qid=1692726460&s=books&sprefix=rapp+ice+ages%2Cstripbooks%2C140&sr=1-1&ufe=app_do%3Aamzn1.fos.f5122f16-c3e8-4386-bf32-63e904010ad0
Interesting contents pages; worth a good read.
Two points of note (from my end that is )
There is the GISP2 deuterium and also the Vostok. They are interesting, but more so in comparison to Kilimanjaro. Comparing polar to equatorial is very revealing.
The other is section 4.3.2 Sudden changes. The polar to equatorial show the sudden changes, and indicate that they are opposite polar to equatorial. They also occur at ‘determined’ intervals. (Note: Vostok and Kilimanjaro agree chronologically in the early info I found, but Gisp2 was delayed by some 1100 years. It should not be. Over the past six years I found confirmation of that.).
Appears to be a wealth of info collection.
Something more:
In page two of available preface material there is:
“As the ice cover spreads, albedo –increases further adding to cooling effect. More and more water leaves the oceans —“.
To my mind there is something wrong here. With increasing albedo there is less heat to evaporate water. That is, unless the solar insolation is restricted to a narrow equatorial band; the ‘burning zone’ of ancient traditions.
Meaning a very low earth tilt. This evidence I have found from ancient structures. The evidence that tilt change happens periodically is becoming more frequent in my research.
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The github page has been updated. Final CO2 contribution is estimated at 0.071 °C.
IMF’s specious and disingenuous fossil fuel “subsidy” calculations. These people are an anathema to civilization.
Despite repeated government pledges to cut back on fossil fuel subsidies, a new report found such subsidies surged to a record $1.3 trillion last year.
The report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) looked at both explicit and implicit subsidies for fossil fuels across 170 countries. It found explicit subsidies alone have more than doubled since the previous IMF assessment, rising from $500 billion in 2020 to $1.3 trillion in 2022 as governments rushed to mitigate the inflationary impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the spike in demand caused by the economic recovery from Covid-19. Those subsidies are direct monetary support for fossil fuels through activities like regulated prices set below international levels and energy bill rebates.
IMF also calculates implicit fossil fuel subsidies, which include the cost of things such as undercharging for environmental costs and failing to levy taxes on consumption. Adding those in and the total subsidies ballooned to $7 trillion in 2022. That’s an increase of $2 trillion compared to 2020.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-24/fossil-fuel-subsidies-hit-1-3-trillion-as-climate-change-worsens-imf-report
I wonder why one of the biggest recipients of fossil fuel subsidies is also planing to spend $270 billion on renewable energy by 2030? Saudi Arabia seems to be hedging their bets. You think all this investing in EV makers and renewable energy projects is just green washing or something more sinister?
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Arabia-Secures-Financing-For-24-Billion-Solar-Project.html
“In wind and solar, Saudi Arabia has perhaps one of the most ambitious capacity-building targets in the world. In 2030, the Kingdom aims to have some 58 GW of wind and solar energy capacity, which would compare with less than 1 GW currently.”
Jack
The nation Saudi Arabia does not receive fossil fuel subsidies. The nation provides fossil fuel to their population at lower than market prices which is considered a subsidy. Their developing renewable power makes sense to lengthen how long their fossil fuels will last.
Rob,
I was being a bit sarcastic. Someday oil will mostly be used as feed stock for the hundreds of thousands of man-made molecules we need for agriculture and industrial use. They also want to build nuclear plants and a futuristic city called NEOM, “The Line”.
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This is crazy. How did the EPA come up with $190 per ton CO2 as the “social cost” of carbon. What does that even mean? Sound like BS to me.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-24/milton-friedman-s-alma-mater-exposes-huge-cost-of-co2-emissions
Have Emperor penguins of Antarctica replaced the thriving polar bear community as the Left’s new victims of AGW?
If you believe global warming catastrophists you have to believe coral does not exist anymore…
Take a look at how well the EPA “simplified” the “Social Cost” of carbon for us.
https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2014-12/documents/the_social_cost_of_carbon_made_simple.pdf
There are 2 data sets for the TOA net radiative flux.
NASA CERES produces one data set. Zhang and Rossow produce the second data set.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022JD037340 Global Radiative Flux Profile Data Set: Revised and Extended
Yuanchong Zhang, William B. Rossow
The data set produced by Zhang and Rossow begins near the beginning of the satellite era, 1983.
This data set shows that Absorbed Solar Radiation (ASR) has been responsible for the imbalance at the TOA since 1983.
Zhang and Rossow find that changes in cloud is primarily responsible for the increase in ASR.
The CERES data begins 2001.
Comparing the 2 data sets, ASR since 2001 is much the same. However, longwave net at the TOA is very different. Zhang and Rossow’s data set show much more long wave radiation being expelled into space by the planet.
Zhang and Rossow’s data set disputes that the Earths Energy Imbalance (EEI) is increasing as CERES is claiming.
The implications of ASR causing the EEI since 1983 are huge.
Another typhoon in the Philippine Sea.
https://i.ibb.co/vz4fTNh/himawari9-wv-rgb-09-W-202308250740.gif
Tropical storm in the western Gulf of Mexico.
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Interesting Article on Ice Shelf research from Today’s Washington Post (this should be a “free read” from my subscription — let me know if link doesn’t open). https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2023/greenland-ice-sheet-drilling-bedrock-sea-rise/
Tireless seekers of “deadly” CO2.
“He knew that such a disaster had happened before. In 2016, Schaefer and his close colleague Jason Briner, a geology professor at the University at Buffalo, were part of a team that analyzed the single bedrock sample that had been previously collected from beneath the thickest part of the ice sheet. The rock contained chemical signatures showing it had been exposed to the sky in the past 1.1 million years. In a paper they published in the journal Nature, the scientists concluded that almost all of Greenland — including regions now covered by ice more than a mile deep — must have melted at least once within that time frame.”
Thanks for this link – worked ok. A good read , and well illustrated. Looking forward to seeing the results…
A tropical storm in the western Gulf of Mexico is approaching the Mexican coast.
https://i.ibb.co/X7871zz/goes16-wv-rgb-gom.gif
Storm Franklin has turned south and is attacking Puerto Rico.
https://i.ibb.co/72dH1tg/goes16-ir-08-L-202308251642.gif
God you post a lot of useless stuff about weather.
It’s a bit grey and overcast here in Winchester, UK. About average temperature for the time of year. A light drizzle is forecast for this evening.
“The medium of heat transfer, moist air, removes surface heat QH by evaporating water. This transformation is represented by isothermal air expansion between points 1 and 2 at surface temperature TS. The air along with water vapor then adiabatically expands in the lower atmosphere from point 2 at the surface to point 3 in the upper troposphere, and the work, WA, is produced. This work raises the air mass against gravity and maintains air circulation. Under pressure of the upper atmosphere, water vapor condenses in the upper troposphere. This transformation is represented by isothermal compression from point 3 to point 4, and the heat, QC, is rejected to the colder atmosphere. The dry and cold air and condensed water then return to the surface by gravity from point 4 located in the upper troposphere to point 1 at the surface, and the thermodynamic cycle repeats. ”
https://i.ibb.co/zSq5mX4/Zrzut-ekranu-2023-08-26-090728.png
https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/25/1/72
https://i.ibb.co/g6RcBP7/zt-nh.gif
https://i.ibb.co/Yk8p7HQ/zt-sh.gif
What is important is that the heat released during condensation of water vapor at the top of the troposphere is radiated to the tropopause and has a cooling effect at the surface.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_EQ_2023.png
A thunderstorm storm with 70 mph winds came through our area Thursday. We lost power, along with thousands of others, and with it all communications. Since my cellphone was very low on charge, my first thought was how am I going to charge it without electricity.
Not to worry. I will go out to my fossil fuel auto and charge it back as needed.
I had a large tree knocked down in the storm so I called a tree service and they chopped it up with fossil fuels chainsaws and took it away.
I went outside last night, and throughout my neighborhood I could hear the sweet hum of fossil fuels generators providing the sustenance of civilizations, electricity from fossil fuels.
Fossil fuels rock.
Makes for some serious thinking.
Having tasted in my early years life without fossil power, and then made a career in power generation, the above also highlights our dependence on fossil fuels, and in no small measure.
Yesterday I watched a documentary on bears, a large number more than the locality could support in a natural way. The bears congregated at night on a waste tip where they foraged for what was for them food. They had become totally dependent on the human waste for their survival. The conclusion was the bears were doomed.
We have become dependent on the vegetative waste left behind by the dinosaurs. It is going to take a lot of grey matter activity to survive that. Grey matter use in a unfruitful different direction may be extremely costly.
I’m waiting for lefties to show a sign there is any grey matter present in them whatsoever.
In a perverted sort of way I will miss her when she leaves Congress.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4isFscXcAAwBen?format=jpg&name=900×900
jim2 Your “Fossil fuels rock.” sounds like a great addiction.
And it is not just lefties, or them or us, this is all of us without exception. I greatly fear the withdrawal effects.
melitamegalithic – there’s no reason to fret over the demise of fossil fuels. We have enough left for a hundred or more years. That’s plenty of time to develop nuclear reactors, large and small, to take over energy production. Even if we stopped using FFs for energy now, the drop in production volume would make just about everything much more expensive. That might be something to worry about.
jim2 – The only thing that is served by nuclear is electricity (unless someone uses nuke to solve the human problem permanently). The rest relies on FF. The thing is that those alive today are so addicted and take it for granted, and cannot think of any other way in spite of all the fuss being made. The only thing that has been retained from the past is lighting a candle to your pet deity; its renewable unless the bees are gone too.
Now the next hundred year should not be a worry – especially to someone like myself. However if one is in the habit of digging a little history, and a couple of dear grand-kids, then the prospect beyond a hundred years still stays on the mind. There is, or there may be, time for changing ways, to more sustainable ways (to use that cliche).
Who would care if “just about everything (is) much more expensive” if one has no food and shelter. That was the demise of the great civilizations of the past. Nature has a habit of repeating her tantrums. We should try to beat that with our today’s technical know-how, – if there is enough ‘common sense’.
IIRC, food production has increased just about every year. Thanks, increasing CO2 :–)
jim2 – CO2 is good; more crops and greater harvests. But useless in a period of long droughts. That is the next natural phase we are heading to.
I still have memory of long nights in summer with mule and donkey driving a bucket chain in turns, drawing water from more than 80 feet down. The diesel pump relieved both man and animal. FFs rock. Conservation rather than wanton waste is the wiser option. It can be done; better efficiency; the right horses (or kW) for courses.
Human released CO2 has both positive and negative impacts. The truth is that the positive impacts outweigh the negative impacts currently. It doesn’t make sense to pretend CO2 causes zero warming. It does warm the planet somewhat. The issue is how much how fast and what happens as a consequence.
Humanity adapts to the climate as it changes. CO2 caused changes will be no different.
Rob Starkey says “Humanity adapts to the climate as it changes.” Quite so. On that history is a good teacher.
There have been abrupt changes before, and humanity adapted; it had no option. History says it was always tough. And CO2 had little or no part in it.
The big question is has the technological advance of the last 50 or so years made us more resilient, or put us at greater risk? FF’s rock; when you have it.
Technology is a double-edged sword and the information technology part is very disappointing. It was so exciting when the internet came about. Information at my fingertips – a new era had dawned and it looked bright.
But now the internet is a means of centralization and control. It enables censorship of the national dialog and spying by corporations and the government. Privacy no longer exists unless by exceptional measures. Very disappointing.
Jim writes
‘But now the internet is a means of centralization and control.”
As a specific example of this practically speaking try looking up studies written prior to 2001 on sea level rise. Google and Bing will take you to more recent papers affirming the current notion that sea level has only been rising at the current rate for 175 years or so. Older papers suggested the rise has been happening for hundreds of years.
“The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth.”
George Orwell, 1984
I bookmarked many articles several years ago that had chronicled warming and related impacts in the past.
I’ve noticed they are disappearing and I am not able to retrieve them. I have no explanation and it might only be because of technical causes. But given the mentality of some who want to control the narrative about global warming, it does give me pause.
Mr. Rob … see …
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=sea+level+rise&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C43&as_ylo=1950&as_yhi=2001
Here’s a 1990 paper on sea level rise. Looks like reality is going to be at the low end of their guess.
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/22121
A 12 year old boy has become a center of controversy after his teacher told him he couldn’t wear to school a backpack with “Don’t tread on me”, because of what has been called a hateful message.
Apparently, the school board reversed the teacher’s decision but the episode raises a number of questions.
What happened to free speech?
Who gets to determine hateful speech?
What happened to knowledge of history?
The saying originated from the Revolutionary War and has since been used recently by certain groups as a rallying cry for individual freedoms.
If messaging once had an honorable and non controversial intent, should subsequent usage supersede that original intent? For instance, if a group appropriates a picture of the Lincoln Memorial as their symbol, and the group is deemed unacceptable by the larger society, should the original intent of that symbol be vacated?
Another example of what Orwell warned us about.
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In August, the amount of heat under the equatorial Pacific decreased compared to July.
http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC007/IDYOC007.202308.gif
Speaking of a dearth of grey matter …
The Biden administration has blocked off millions of acres of federal waters from a planned oil and gas lease sale after settling with environmental groups over habitat protections for a rare species of whale.
The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) said in an Aug. 23 notice that, as part of Lease Sale 261, it will offer around 67 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico for oil and gas drilling.
That is around 9 percent, or 6.4 million acres, less than BOEM’s original proposal, following a settlement with environmental groups that pauses ongoing litigation over environmental protections in the Gulf of Mexico in exchange for excluding Rice’s whale habitat from any lease sales.
https://www.ntd.com/biden-admin-blocks-millions-of-acres-to-oil-and-gas-drilling_938251.html
jim2,
You are missing the big picture.
“Biden rule could strip more than half of U.S wetlands protections.”
The Environmental Protection Agency said Tuesday it has revised a key rule to comply with a sweeping U.S. Supreme Court ruling from earlier this year, which could strip federal protections from up to 63 percent of the nation’s wetlands.
Just in time too:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/28/climate/groundwater-drying-climate-change.html
“Many of the aquifers that supply 90 percent of the nation’s water systems, and which have transformed vast stretches of America into some of the world’s most bountiful farmland, are being severely depleted.
…
As farmers ran out of water, they increasingly switched to what’s called dryland farming, relying on rain alone.
That change is reflected in corn yields over time. Last year, corn growers nationwide produced an average of 173 bushels per acre. But for Wichita County, the yield was just 70.6 bushels, the lowest in more than six decades. The same is true for neighboring counties, whose yields have fallen to where they were in the 1960s.
Kansas has no mechanism in place to stop its groundwater decline.
Several states including Texas, Oklahoma and Colorado have rules that allow groundwater to be pumped from some regions until it’s gone.”
The fresh water problem is already solved. You will have to find some other topic by which to spread FUD.
According to this report, there are approximately 19,000 desalination plants throughout the world, providing water to municipal and industrial users. Almost half of the global installed desalination capacity is in the Middle East, followed by the European Union with 13%, the United States with 9% and North Africa with 8.5%. Seawater is the most common feed water, since it provides approximately 60% of the installed capacity. Brackish water makes up for about 20%.
https://www.foronuclear.org/en/updates/in-depth/desalination-with-nuclear-reactors-generates-drinking-water-in-places-where-it-is-scarce/
What, me worry? I had to switch to reverse osmosis 8 years ago when my city’s artisan wells went dry (Trinity aquifer). Grey water is the new Coke!
@ jim2 | August 27, 2023 at 9:24 am in suspense.
A tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea is intensifying. Cloud tops reach the lower stratosphere and radiate infrared temperatures of -80 C.
https://i.ibb.co/NNtkSRc/goes16-ir-10-L-202308280442.gif
‘Climate Change’ High Priest John Kerry Declares Virtual War on ‘Deniers,’ Calls Them ‘Inexorable Threat’
The corporate state is intent, apparently, on ramping up its propaganda against so-called “climate deniers,” presumably to set the rhetorical groundwork for more extreme legal and social action against them in the future. So it dispatched something called its “climate envoy,” John Kerry, to Scotland with that aim.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/benbartee/2023/08/27/climate-change-high-priest-john-kerry-declares-virtual-war-on-deniers-calls-them-inexorable-threat
@ jim2 | August 28, 2023 at 7:47 am in suspense.
Not only does more open water release heat, evaporation may increase precipitation causing ice mass increases on the continent and thickening of multi-year ice. The broken up young peripheral ice may also pile up and become multi year ice, increasing summer albedo.
https://x.com/aaronshem/status/1691610244428816721
Looks like passenger EVs won’t save the world after all. They are just a stupendous waste of money, time, and resources.
90% of new car sales in Norway are EV’s — but fuel demand has only fallen 10%
https://joannenova.com.au/2023/08/90-of-new-car-sales-in-norway-are-evs-but-fuel-demand-has-only-fallen-10/
@ jim2 | August 29, 2023 at 7:50 am in suspense
Two hurricanes are approaching the US coast.
https://i.ibb.co/ckZntRX/mimictpw-namer-latest.gif
“Abstract—
The Nimbus I, II, and III satellites provide a new opportunity for climate studies in the 1960s. The rescue of the visible and infrared imager data resulted in the utilization of the early Nimbus data to determine sea ice extent. A qualitative analysis of the early NASA Nimbus missions has revealed Antarctic sea ice extents that are significant larger and smaller than the historic 1979–2012 passive microwave record. The September 1964 ice mean area is 19.7×10^6 km2 ± 0.3×10^6 km2. This is more the 250,000 km2 greater than the 19.44×10^6 km2 seen in the new 2012 historic maximum. However, in August 1966 the maximum sea ice extent fell to 15.9×10^6 km2 ± 0.3×10^6 km2. This is more than 1.5×10^6 km2 below the passive microwave record of 17.5×10^6 km2 set in September of 1986. This variation between 1964 and 1966 represents a change of maximum sea ice of over 3×10^6 km2 in just two years. These inter-annual variations while large, are small when compared to the Antarctic seasonal cycle.”
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20140017193/downloads/20140017193.pdf
The hurricane will hit northwest Florida.
Georgia and South Carolina are also at risk.
Hurricane Idalia is moving north.
https://i.ibb.co/KD5c9pw/goes16-ir-10-L-202308300347.gif
Hurricane will strike south of Tallahassee.
https://www.accuweather.com/pl/us/tallahassee/32301/weather-radar/328170
The hurricane is already in Georgia.
https://i.ibb.co/cttYXnY/Zrzut-ekranu-2023-08-30-190627.png
During the night, the storm will be over South Carolina.
Shell Oil suffers a bout of rationality and decides to focus on what makes money …
Six months after becoming the chief executive at Shell Plc, Wael Sawan quietly ended the world’s biggest corporate plan to develop carbon offsets, the environmental projects designed to counteract the warming effects of CO2 emissions.
In an all-day investor event in June, Sawan laid out an updated strategy for the European oil major that included cutting costs and doubling down on profit drivers like oil and gas. As important was what he omitted: any mention of the company’s prior commitment to spend up to $100 million a year to build a pipeline of carbon credits, part of the firm’s promise to zero out its emissions by 2050.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-08-31/shell-silently-abandoned-its-100-million-a-year-plan-to-offset-co2-emissions
More and more, politicians can’t stomach Net Zero.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. — California Gov. Gavin Newsom campaigned on shutting down Aliso Canyon, a gas storage facility that was the site of the largest methane leak in U.S. history.
Now, five years later, his administration is poised to inject even more gas into the sandstone chamber 8,500 feet beneath north Los Angeles in a bid to stave off energy price spikes and power shortages.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/30/newsom-aliso-canyon-dirty-energy-blackouts-00113534
Powerful typhoon Saola is about to hit southeastern China.
https://i.ibb.co/7v3q5FZ/himawari9-ir-09-W-202309010330.gif
Typhoon Saola has made landfall in southeastern China. Another typhoon will pass centrally over Taiwan and reach China.
Because of the toxicity of the names of some of the authors and because the study covers only the NH land record and because of the sometimes convoluted thought process and because of the inconclusive conclusion, I am providing this new paper since…. it is a new paper. Intuitively I agree with some of the observations but I’m not sure much real progress has been made beyond that.
https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/9/179
The eye of a powerful typhoon is headed straight for Taiwan.
https://i.ibb.co/D4BctsT/himawari9-ir-10-W-202309021620.gif
Why do you set yourself up as a fact checker, Judith? Your lack of understanding of entropy leads to your failure to realize that it is gravity (acting on molecules in flight between collisions) which sets up the non-zero temperature gradient (inappropriately called a lapse rate) in every planetary troposphere, not back radiation from greenhouse gases. That is why real world data shows water vapor cooling rather than warming us. That is why the surface of Venus is hot. That is why the core of the Moon is more than 1000 degrees hotter than the hottest location on its surface. That is why carbon dioxide and methane do not warm the surface of planets like Earth and Venus. You cannot quantify surface temperatures by adding solar and atmospheric radiative fluxes and using the total in Stefan-Boltzmann Law calculations. That law only works for a single source. And that is why all the climate models are totally and utterly wrong.
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I will remember this late summer period as the time when there were so many revelations of uncertainties, not just here but also on Twitter and elsewhere.
There were discussions about the uncertainties about the effects of volcanoes and solar, uncertainties of the reliability of models, uncertainties about AGW effects on wildfires, uncertainties about the cause low Antarctic Sea Ice, uncertainties about statistics employed in studies, uncertainties about the impact on temperatures from the Urban Heat Island effect, uncertainties about the future of human’s well being and uncertainties of the intent of authors of peer reviewed studies.
What has been certain and unchanged is the Mafia like muscle used to stifle freedom of speech and the ability to publish research that does not toe the line of the climatariat.
Nothing like a good food fight. Where is John Belushi?
“ Editor of Nature journal slams climate scientist Patrick Brown’s ‘highly irresponsible’ research after he said publications reject studies that don’t ‘support certain narratives’”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12488605/editor-nature-journal-climate-change-scientist.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12482921/climate-scientist-patrick-brown-wildfires-started-people.html
A little sunshine never hurt anyone. The media do it. Why not the actual gatekeepers of science.
A protester at Tennis US Open has glued his feet to the floor in the stands during the women’s semifinals. Supposedly a climate activist.
Real bright. Is it any wonder they are patsies for the propaganda?
What a bunch of Drama Queens!
A study has just been released( behind paywall), that found a rate of warming in Antarctica, greater than models.
The Frantic Fraternity wasted no time in gearing up the public relations machinery.
“ Their study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, disclosed that Antarctica is warming at a rate ranging from 0.22°C to 0.32°C per decade, surpassing the 0.18°C per decade predicted by climate models.”
“Something weird is going on”
“..deeply concerning,,”
“ This accelerated warming has the potential for significant implications in terms of global sea level rise.”
“… a climate scientist and ice core specialist at the University of Tasmania, also not involved in the study, highlighted the timeliness of the research, particularly in light of recent extreme events in Antarctica.”
“ ‘Absolutely Devastating News”
“… it begs the question, are other climate model projections underestimating the speed of climate breakdown?”
“ …as humanity continues to burn fossil fuels, the key driver of the climate emergency. Another August study found that when Antarctic sea ice melted last year, it likely killed over 9,000 emperor penguin chicks”
“ In the worst emissions scenario, some studies estimate that the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet could alone contribute to an increase in sea level of 15 m over the next 500 years,” recalls Mathieu Casado (author of this study) “But if climate models have underestimated the warming of Antarctica in recent years, then they could also underestimate its consequences on rising ocean levels.”
“ scientists are talking about a catastrophe..”
Meanwhile, other studies and IPCC6 discuss low confidence in future conditions in Antarctica and uncertainties in future SLR and debates about causes of low sea ice and that warm water, not warming water, are affecting ice sheet grounding lines, and ice shelves are growing. But, what the hey, never let a perceived crisis go to waste.
This is the study
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01791-5
Humanity will easily adapt to climate changes over time. There is no climate crisis.
Joe Biden has a message for Dr. Curry and any other climate scientists who say climate is not an existential threat. “You are a lying dogfaced pony soldier.”
He further says that climate change is more dangerous than nuclear war and that the Earth could never recover from a greater than 1.5 degree rise in temperature.
Here is his press conference in Vietnam yesterday. Climate starts at minute 17. https://www.c-span.org/video/?530300-1/president-biden-holds-news-conference-vietnam
It’s great to know Biden is crunching the complexities of CO2 and atmospheric physics as well as building a transglobal railroad.
Hurricane Lee is approaching the east coast of the US.
https://i.ibb.co/6PP0sYv/mimictpw-namer-latest.gif
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An utter planning failure is playing out in France. Governments around the world are mismanaging our energy supplies. This is just one example.
The French government plans to allow gas stations to sell fuel at a loss, overriding a law from 1963, as it struggles to find new ways of containing inflation without adding to vast sums of public money already spent.
Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne said in an interview with Le Parisien that the law would be suspended for a limited period of a “few months.” Such a move would in theory allow greater competition between distributors, who could cut prices below costs and aim to make up lost margin with sales of other products and services.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-17/france-to-allow-selling-fuel-at-loss-in-effort-to-curb-inflation
Yet another sign that the Church of Climate Doomers are hurting us all:
The World Is Struggling to Make Enough Diesel
Crude production cuts have been detrimental to diesel supply
Refineries have sought to satisfy demand surge for other fuels
The world’s oil refiners are proving powerless to make enough diesel, opening a new inflationary front and depriving economies of a fuel that powers industry and transport alike.
While oil futures are rocketing — on Friday they were just below $95 a barrel in London — the rally pales in comparison with the surge in diesel. US prices jumped above $140 to the highest ever for this time of year on Thursday. Europe’s equivalent soared 60% since summer.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-17/the-world-is-struggling-to-make-enough-diesel?srnd=premium-europe
And Germany continues to tilt at windmills when it should be erecting oil derricks.
Germany’s autobahn is known for its limitless speed. But its aging infrastructure isn’t up to the task of carrying the massive windmill towers and rotor blades needed for the country’s energy transition, and developers complain the highways are now slowing progress.
Earlier this year, German haulers made a tedious detour transporting rotor blades from the port of Bremen to an onshore wind park in the north of the country. Instead of a highway route that normally takes about three hours, narrow curves and size restrictions forced them to spend three nights traveling triple the distance on alternative roads.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-17/aging-autobahn-thwarts-germany-s-plan-to-erect-massive-windmills
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not big curse like muslim terror but huge blessing global warming offers warm winters great surfing march to august powerful&magic thunderstorms salmon curry & the bill please
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How can anyone beclown themselves any more than this? And to think, his work influenced the entire world.
God help us.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8DB2r9aUAAH_Su?format=jpg&name=medium
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