Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis: New support for the effect of solar activity on lower atmospheric circulation

by Javier Vinós

A recent paper by Svetlana Veretenenko provides important support for the effect of solar activity on the lower atmospheric circulation through its effect on the polar vortex. Veretenenko’s paper is an important step in demonstrating the solar effect on global atmospheric circulation, an important part of the Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis.

1. Introduction

The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis, proposed by this author in his book “Climate of the Past, Present and Future” (Vinós 2022), is based on evidence that climate change is primarily the result of changes in poleward energy transport, and that solar variability is an important modulator of this transport. The hypothesis addresses two important issues: How climate changes naturally on the multi-decadal to the millennial time scale, even in the absence of changes in the greenhouse effect; and how changes in solar activity can profoundly affect climate despite their small energy changes. One conclusion of the hypothesis is that the Modern Solar Maximum of 1935-2005 contributed to 20th-century global warming, implying a significant reduction in climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide.

The reader is referred to parts III, IV, and V of “The Sun-Climate Effect: The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis” series of articles for additional information on meridional (poleward) transport mechanisms, and to part VII for a summary of the hypothesis.

The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis integrates different components of the transport system in the stratosphere, troposphere, and ocean. A schematic of the energy processes involved is presented in Fig. 8.1, with energy transport represented by white arrows. Solar modulation starting in the stratosphere affects all transport, and Vinós (2022) showed a solar effect on ENSO and the polar vortex. The mechanism by which solar activity modulates ENSO activity is still unknown, but this author proposes a solar modulation of the Brewer-Dobson tropical upwelling, known as the “tropical route” of the “top-down mechanism” (Maycock & Misios 2016; Vinós 2022).

Fig8.1

Fig. 8.1. Northern Hemisphere winter meridional transport outline. The energy gain/loss ratio at the top of the atmosphere determines the maximal energy source in the tropical band and the maximal energy sink in the Arctic in winter. Incoming solar energy is distributed in the stratosphere and troposphere/surface where it is subjected to different transport modulations. Energy (white arrows) ascends from the surface to the stratosphere at the tropical pipe (left dashed line) and is transported towards the polar vortex (right dashed line) by the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Stratospheric transport is determined by UV heating at the tropical ozone layer, which establishes a temperature gradient affecting zonal wind strength through thermal wind balance, and by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). This double control determines the behavior of planetary waves (black arrows) and determines if the polar vortex undergoes a biennial coupling with the QBO (BO). In the tropical ocean mixed-layer, ENSO is the main energy distribution modulator. While the Hadley cell participates in energy transport and responds to its intensity by expanding or contracting, most energy transport in the tropics is done by the ocean. Changes in transport intensity result in the main modes of variability, the AMO, and PDO. Outside the tropics, most of the energy is transferred to the troposphere, where synoptic transport by eddies along storm tracks is responsible for the bulk of the transport to high latitudes. The strength of the polar vortex determines the high latitudes winter climate regime. A weak vortex promotes a warm Arctic/ cold continents winter regime, where more energy enters the Arctic exchanged by cold air masses moving out. Jet streams (PJS, polar; TJS, tropical; PNJ, polar night) constitute the boundaries and limit transport. Red oval, the part of the Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis studied in Veretenenko 2022. Figure from Vinós 2022.

The effect of solar activity on the polar vortex, first reported by Karin Labitzke in 1987, is better understood. There is now considerable evidence that solar activity affects the state of the polar vortex. The mechanism, which was already proposed in the 1970s, is called “Planetary Wave Feedback” (Gray et al. 2010). The amount of energy and momentum impinging on the polar vortex depends on the state of the stratosphere that is affected by solar activity. During periods of low solar activity, more energy is delivered, perturbing the polar vortex, which is more stable under high solar activity. The stability of the polar vortex is of fundamental importance for the winter climate of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and for the amount of energy reaching the Arctic.

The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis puts this known solar mechanism into context as part of a more general effect of solar activity on meridional transport through the stratosphere and troposphere from the tropics to the poles. It also shows that the important climatic effect of transport changes is due to changes in the amount of energy leaving the planet as outgoing longwave radiation in the polar regions.

  1. Polar Vortex and Its Role in Atmospheric Processes

The recent paper by Svetlana Veretenenko, from the Ioffe Institute in St. Petersburg, Russia (Veretenenko 2022, Ve22 from here), provides important support for the effect of solar activity on the lower atmospheric circulation through its effect on the polar vortex. Veretenenko’s paper focuses only on the troposphere-polar vortex part of the Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis (Fig. 8.1, red oval). It also lacks an explanation of the energetic changes necessary to change the climate. The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis has provided such an explanation through changes in outgoing radiation (Vinós 2022). Nevertheless, Veretenenko’s paper is an important step in demonstrating the solar effect on global atmospheric circulation, an important part of the Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis. It is not uncommon in science for unrelated authors to independently reach similar conclusions at about the same time. The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis was already developed in 2018 and was included in the first edition of “Climate of the Past, Present and Future.” This hypothesis could not have been developed 20 years ago because there was insufficient knowledge and data to support it. The time has come to make a major breakthrough in our understanding of natural climate change and the role of the sun in it. This author is proud to be a part of it and welcomes Veretenenko’s paper “Stratospheric Polar Vortex as an Important Link between the Lower Atmosphere Circulation and Solar Activity.” The main findings of this article are discussed below.

Ve22 defines the polar vortex and its role in atmospheric processes very well:

The stratospheric polar vortex is a large-scale cyclonic circulation that forms in the cold air mass over the Polar region during [the] cold half of the year and that extends from the middle troposphere to the stratosphere. A circular eastward motion of air arises, which isolates the polar air from the warmer air of mid-latitudes, contributing to a temperature decrease inside the vortex. The vortex is seen as a belt of strong western winds at latitudes ~50–80° N, with the wind velocity reaching ~50–60 m s–1 at the upper levels. In Figure 2b, the magnitude of the horizontal temperature gradients at the level 20 hPa is presented for January 2005.

Fig8.2

Fig. 8.2 (a) Distribution of mean monthly velocity of zonal wind (in m·s−1) at the 20 hPa level (stratosphere) in the Northern Hemisphere in January 2005. (b) distribution of mean monthly magnitude of the horizontal gradient of temperature (in °C/100 km) at the 20 hPa level in January 2005. Figure from Ve22.

Fig. 8.2 constitutes a nice illustration of the winter gatekeeper concept. The strong winds that circle the poles in winter act as a gatekeeper determining how much energy is going to enter the polar region, creating a steep temperature gradient. The strength of the polar vortex is tied to the Northern Hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation:

The polar vortex is known to be an important element in the large-scale circulation  of the atmosphere. The location and state of the vortex affect the development of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). Baldwin and Dunkerton [5] showed that under strong vortex regimes, the NAO and AO indices tend to be positive and that the tracks of extratropical cyclones shift to the north. Gudkovich and colleagues [6] linked the alternations of cold and warm epochs in the Arctic with changes in the vortex state, warm and cold epochs being associated with strong and weak vortex regimes, respectively. Labitzke [7] was the first to reveal that the effects of solar activity on the characteristics of the stratosphere and troposphere depend on the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) in the atmosphere, the findings by Labitzke suggest that the polar vortex strength may also influence the atmosphere response to solar variability.

3. Spatial and Temporal Variability in Galactic Cosmic Ray Effects on Troposphere Pressure

Ve22 believes that the solar effect is mediated by galactic cosmic rays, but we must remember that solar activity, often assessed by sunspots or the 10.7 cm radio flux, is strongly correlated with the inverse of cosmic rays, as shown in Fig. 8.3. There is a lag of about one year, but finding a similar lag in a correlation of climate effects cannot be interpreted as evidence for cosmic ray involvement, since the lags can arise independently.

Fig8.3

Fig. 8.3. Solar activity (sunspots) and cosmic rays (inverted). Figure from http://www.climatedata.info.

Ve22 correlates solar activity with atmospheric pressure, as has been done previously by many authors since the Labitzke and Van Loon studies of the 1980s. Ve22 also points out the correlation reversals that have taken place in the solar-climate signal, extensively discussed in Parts I, II, and IV.

Figure [8.4] presents the spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between pressure and GCR variations, with the linear trends being removed, for two different time periods: 1953–1981 [not shown here] and 1982–2000. Troposphere pressure was characterized by the mean yearly values of geopotential heights at the 700 hPa level … The mean long-term (climatic) positions of Arctic and Polar fronts, which are the main atmospheric fronts at extratropical latitudes, are also shown … Arctic fronts separate cold air masses forming in the Arctic region from the warmer air of middle latitudes, whereas Polar fronts separate mid-latitudinal and tropical air masses. They play an important part in cyclonic activity at middle latitudes, as the formation and evolution of extratropical cyclones are closely associated with these fronts … the distribution of the correlations is closely related to the climatic atmospheric fronts. In the previous period, 1953–1981 [not shown here], the distribution of the correlation coefficients between pressure and GCR fluxes was quite similar to that in 1982–2000 … However, the signs of correlations in all these areas were quite opposite to those in 1982–2000.

Fig8.4

Fig. 8.4. Spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between mean yearly values of geopotential height at 700 hPa (troposphere) and cosmic rays rate for the period 1982–2000. Curves 1 and 2 show the climatic positions of Arctic fronts in January and July, respectively. Similarly, curves 3 and 4 are the same for Polar fronts; curves 5 and 6 are the same for the equatorial trough axis. This figure corresponds to Figure 3a from Ve22 and has been modified by the addition of land contours and a yellow box for what Ve22 calls the North Atlantic cyclogenetic zone (zone of most intensive cyclone formation) along the eastern coasts of North America (20–30° N, 280–300° E, and 30–40° N, 290–310° E).

4. Temporal Variability of Solar Activity Effects on Troposphere Pressure in the Northern Hemisphere and the Epochs of Large-Scale Circulation

For longer temporal analyses, Ve22 uses the sunspot number as a proxy for solar activity and its correlation with sea level pressure in two areas, the North Atlantic cyclogenic zone (yellow box in Fig. 8.4) or the polar region (60-85° N). As we can see in Fig. 8.4 the correlation with solar activity in these two areas is opposite. Fig. 8.5 shows that their opposite correlation with solar activity is maintained over time, but undergoes reversals at certain times.

Fig8.5

Fig. 8.5. (a) Correlation coefficients between yearly values of sea level pressure and sunspot numbers R (SLP, SSN) for the Polar region (solid line) and the North Atlantic cyclogenetic zone (dashed line) for sliding 15-year intervals. Dotted lines show the 95% significance level. (b) Fourier spectra of sliding correlation coefficients as in (a). Figure from Ve22.

The presented data allow the suggestion of a close interconnection between dynamic processes developing the North Atlantic cyclogenetic zone and in the Polar region as a response to phenomena related to solar activity. The correlation reversals took place in the end of the 19th century, in the 1920s, near 1950, and in the early 1980s, which indicates a roughly 60-year variation in solar activity effects on troposphere circulation.

Ve22 takes the dates of the correlation reversals rather than the dates on which the trends change, so it misses known climate regime shifts identified in the Pacific, such as the one in 1976 that precedes the correlation reversal of the early 1980s by about six years. This prevents Ve22 from relating the detected changes to a more global phenomenon involving meridional transport by the multidecadal stadium-wave oscillation that shows the same 65-year frequency (Vinós 2022). Moreover, unlike the Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis, Ve22 has no explanation for the correlation reversals, something that has puzzled solar climate researchers for a century.

Thus, the obtained results allow us to suggest that the reversal of the correlation links between pressure variations (development of extratropical baric systems) and solar activity phenomena may be associated with changes in the large-scale circulation epochs.

Ve22 supports the correlation between solar activity and atmospheric pressure with a similar analysis using the atmospheric circulation index (Vangengeim-Girs) that this author also used in Vinós 2022 Fig. 11.10d. Ve22 correctly identifies the relationship between solar activity and meridional circulation, which is one of the bases of the Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis.

Thus, the character of solar activity … effects on cyclonic processes (pressure variations) at extratropical latitudes seems to be closely related to large-scale circulation epochs and especially to the evolution of meridional circulation forms. Indeed, the results of the spectral analysis (Figure 5, right panel) showed that annual occurrences of the meridional circulation forms … are characterized by dominant harmonics of ~60 years… Thus, the obtained results allow us to suggest that the reversal of the correlation links between pressure variations (development of extratropical baric systems) and solar activity phenomena may be associated with changes in the large-scale circulation epochs.

5. Evolution of the Polar Vortex as a Possible Reason for Temporal Variability in Solar Activity Effects on the Lower Atmosphere Circulation

Ve22 relates the observed changes in atmospheric circulation and its changing correlation with solar activity to changes in the state of the polar vortex. Using reanalysis, Ve22 shows a period of strong stratospheric vortex from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s, characterized by stronger zonal winds at 60-80°N and lower polar temperatures. Weaker vortex phases occurred in the two decades before and after that period.

More controversial are Ve22 findings on surface changes in sea-level pressure and temperature in the Arctic region.

One can see that the period with a strong vortex (~1980–2000), when stratospheric winds were enhanced (Figure 7), was really accompanied by a decrease in pressure and warming in the Arctic. The previous period with a weak vortex (~1950–1980), on the contrary, was accompanied by an increase in pressure and a cold epoch in the studied region.

This makes little sense, as a strong vortex creates a zone of lower surface pressure and lower temperature. The data bear this out, as the Arctic has experienced intense winter warming since the 1997 shift to a weaker vortex phase, not the cooling shown in Figure 7 of Ve22. This author suspects a problem with Ve22 figure 7 or with the polynomial trend removal methodology.

6. Destruction of Cloud-Galactic Cosmic Rays Correlation: Possible Role of the Vortex Weakening

Ve22 next examines the correlation between the low cloud anomalies and cosmic rays that formed the basis of Svensmark’s theory. As Ve22 shows, the correlation disappeared after 2000, and Ve22 attempts to relate the end of the correlation to a change in the polar vortex. In this author’s opinion, the attempt is unsuccessful. Svensmark’s theory requires a direct effect of cosmic rays on cloud condensation nuclei. It is not possible to justify that more cosmic rays go from inducing more clouds to inducing fewer clouds. However, Ve22 attempts to do so by substituting an unspecified effect on cyclogenesis for the physical effect of cosmic rays on condensation nuclei.

One can see that the correlation coefficients for pressure–GCRs [galactic cosmic rays] and cloud–GCRs vary in opposite phases. The highest positive correlation R (LCA, FCR) took place in the period, when the effects of GCRs on cyclone development were the most pronounced. In the late 1990s, this correlation started decreasing and changed the sign simultaneously with the reversal of the pressure–GCR correlation. Thus, the presented data provide evidence that a high positive correlation between cloud amount and galactic cosmic rays revealed on the decadal time scale [16,39] was due mostly to the effects of GCR on the development of dynamic processes in the atmosphere under a strong polar vortex.

This seems a convoluted alteration of Svensmark’s theory to maintain the hypothesis that solar effects on atmospheric circulation are due to cosmic rays. The explanation that the effects are due to dynamical changes initiated by changes in UV rays mediated by stratospheric ozone (the “top-down” mechanism; Maycock & Misios 2016), supported by considerable evidence and incorporated into the Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis constitutes a simpler, more specified, and better-supported alternative.

Next, Ve22 goes into a highly speculative and rather lengthy discussion of the possible effects on the polar vortex of solar proton events, auroral phenomena related to geomagnetic activity, magnetic storms, and solar wind. She even argues for a 60-year periodicity in total solar irradiance that is not observed in sunspots. She also raises the possibility that changes in the chemistry of the middle atmosphere are involved in variations in the strength of the polar vortex. This author finds it surprising that the main factor known to affect polar vortex stability, the planetary wave feedback mechanism (Gray et al. 2010), is not considered in this paper.

  1. Conclusions

Ve22 ends with 3 conclusions:

  1. Temporal variability of solar activity phenomena on the circulation of the lower atmosphere reveals a roughly 60-year periodicity that seems to be associated with changes in the epochs of large-scale circulation…

  2. In turn, changes in the circulation epochs seem to be related to the transitions between the different states of the stratospheric polar vortex…

  3. The state of the polar vortex may be affected by different solar activity phenomena contributing to a roughly 60-year oscillation of its intensity…

The first two are clear and supported by the evidence. As advocated by the Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis, meridional transport features epochs separated by climatic shifts and characterized by distinct states of the winter atmospheric circulation and polar vortex strength. The periodicity of this multi-decadal transport oscillation, which also involves the oceans, is c. 65 years. Solar activity is one of the main modulators of meridional transport changes through its action on three control centers: the tropical ozone layer, the polar vortex (also identified by Ve22), and ENSO (Vinós 2022).

For the first time in a hundred years, a mechanism has been proposed to explain the solar effect on climate that is consistent with all the evidence and includes the ability to alter the planet’s energy budget through coincident changes in outgoing energy. It explains how a very small change in UV energy in the stratosphere is able to alter the meridional transport of energy making it easier or harder for the planet to conserve energy. Ve22 provides evidence for the solar activity → polar vortex → atmospheric circulation connection and identifies the polar vortex control center as one of the links between solar activity and atmospheric circulation.

  1. References

Gray LJ, Beer J, Geller M, et al (2010) Solar influences on climate. Reviews of Geophysics 48 (4)

Maycock A & Misios S (2016) Top-down” versus “Bottom-up” mechanisms for solar-climate coupling. In: Matthes K, De Wit TD & Lilensten J (eds.) Earth’s climate response to a changing Sun. EDP Sciences, France, 237-246. Free book download

Veretenenko S (2022) Stratospheric polar vortex as an important link between the lower atmosphere circulation and solar activity. Atmosphere 13 (7), 1132

Vinós J (2022) Climate of the past, present and future. A scientific debate, 2nd ed. Critical Science Press. Free book download

31 responses to “Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis: New support for the effect of solar activity on lower atmospheric circulation

  1. Dear Javier
    The Polar Vortex
    Should you not have stated clearly, The NH Polar Vortex, as there are two. We have the big one down here below the equator..

    By contrast the SH polar vortex has significantly more influence over global climate, temperature anomalies, sea ice extent (both hemispheres) tropical cyclone activity etc, between the months of May to October.
    I am enjoying your contribution.
    Martin

    • Yes. Veretenenko has the same tendency. The SH Polar Vortex is a lot more estable for geographic conditionants, and rarely undergoes a sudden stratospheric warming. Its solar modulation is, thus, less obvious.

      • Javier
        Look at the SH polar vortex for 2002, and then for a near repeat in 2004. The 2002 year provided the clearest evidence of what drives and creates the vortex. Why did the vortex, zonal winds partially recover after the collapse, these are fundimental questions.
        What I am still searching for is a coherant explanation of what drives and control’s the SH vortex. Paul Newman of NASA tries to describe it, but missed the mark. Waugh etc do an even poorer job. Also why does the vascilation in SH zonal wind speed increase from May onwards each year. Nobody addresses these fundamental issues, = they don’t have a clue.
        Assigning the NH polar vortex directly to solar influences MAY (to use your own terminology) have merit, but it is not a direct linkage. The conclusion is far too simplistic.
        Regards
        Martin

      • There is always a degree of simplification in every explanation. The question is if the hypothesis is essentially correct or wrong. Darwin’s theory was a simplification, but he was essentially correct. There is a lot more to evolution than natural selection, and in some cases it operates in ways Darwin did not envision. Yet natural selection as defined by Darwin is an important part of evolution.

        The strong planetary vortex asymmetry is due in my opinion mostly to geographic differences. The NH vortex is over land and ocean, and winds are stronger over ocean. Also planetary waves are a main destabilizing factor for the vortex, and they are produced by land/ocean contrasts and orography.

        The NH vortex is not assigned to solar modulation. The same solar effect on both vortex should result in much stronger changes in the NH vortex because it is a lot less stable. That is what would be predicted, and that is what is observed.

        To me the SH vortex has less interest because it is more resilient to solar modulation. Some researchers believe the 2002 SH vortex was preconditioned by an anomalous tropical SST pattern that resulted in “a strong generation of vertically propagating waves.”
        https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/21/20/2008jcli2136.1.xml

        The recovery of the vortex from a sudden stratospheric warming is possible if the pole is still under strong radiative cooling conditions that will recreate the cyclonic circulation around the low pressure area.

  2. Every other warm AMO phase is during a centennial solar minimum, so the very long term mean AMO frequency would be 54 years. The last two AMO envelopes are longer because of a longer than average interval between the two most recent centennial solar minima.

  3. How can atmospheric circulation itself maintain a 60y ‘cycle’?

    “She even argues for a 60-year periodicity in total solar irradiance that is not observed in sunspots. “

    The 60y atmospheric ‘cycle’ follows ocean climate change.

    The source of confusion here is the apparant 60y periodicity is closely related to the long-term accumulated irradiance warming of the whole ocean including poleward heat transport, not a non-existent 60y periodicity in sunspots or irradiance.

    This is because it can be shown that the 30y SST (climate proxy) is significantly related to absorbed solar irradiance by the ocean over the past ~120 years, ie, two such 60y ‘cycle’ periods.

    https://i.postimg.cc/fbrKC4dy/109y-SN-vs-30y-Had-SST3.jpg

    The two polar vortex periods discussed in the article can be explained by the stage of development of this 109y SN vs 30y SST relationship, which is different for the two intervals, more aggressive after 1980, which explains Arctic warming very well.

    • Bob
      “The two polar vortex periods discussed in the article can be explained by the stage of development of this 109y SN vs 30y SST relationship, which is different for the two intervals, more aggressive after 1980, which explains Arctic warming very well”

      Arctic warming is as much a result of atmospheric dynamics in the lower latitudes and with the vortex in the SH. Take for example, that the Ozone layer values at > 60N and > 60S both reach minimums in September within days of each other. Sometimes on the same day, and very closely tied to sea ice minimum / maximum’s. These are not casual acquaintances, they are directly linked.

      One day scientists will look at the entire global atmospheric dynamic as a whole, rather than continuing to believe that something magical at the equator separates the hemispheres.
      Best regards.
      Martin

      • “One day scientists will look at the entire global atmospheric dynamic as a whole”

        For the time being climate change is only considered in radiative terms, not only by the entire IPCC orthodoxy, but also by most of the scientific skeptic community. That climate can change due to dynamical changes in the ocean-atmosphere coupled circulation is only being considered by a few that have taught themselves outside the dogma, like me, and are capable to see it in the evidence.

      • Thanx for your reply Ozonebust, however I disagree.

        “Arctic warming is as much a result of atmospheric dynamics in the lower latitudes …”

        No, arctic warming resulted more from NH ocean warming.

        https://i.postimg.cc/xTMLm9cV/NH-SST-NH-Sea-Ice-Extent-and-80-N-Temperature-Correlations.png

        Take for example, that the Ozone layer values at > 60N and > 60S both reach minimums in September within days of each other…. These are not casual acquaintances, they are directly linked.

        They are linked via the sun’s effect near the equinox.

        …rather than continuing to believe that something magical at the equator separates the hemispheres.

        …is a strawman argument. Please name the scientist who says something magical separates the hemispheres.

      • Arctic warming is concomitant with AMO warming, they both depend on negative North Atlantic Oscillation conditions. The warmer AMO reduces low cloud cover, apart from over the central tropics and over the Arctic ocean.
        Think of it as a negative feedback to the solar wind strength. Where stronger solar wind states in the mid 1970’s. mid 1980’s, and early 1990’s drove a colder AMO anomalies via positive NAO regimes, and weaker solar wind states since 1995 drove a warmer AMO via negative NAO regimes 1995-1999 and 2005-2013.

        https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/month_nao_index.shtml

      • “They are linked by the sun’s effect at the equinox”
        Really, how.
        Again we have simplistic conclusions to something more complex that controls the atmospheric conditions and ozone dilution over both poles simultaneously.
        Regards
        Martin

  4. The polar vortex gets ripped by climatists as a way to claim we have disastrous global warming underway that’s being masked year-after-year by a disruptive global cooling trend…

  5. Judith- your article says” For longer temporal analyses, Ve22 uses the sunspot number as a proxy for solar activity ”
    This is not the must useful measure of solar activity see this quote from https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/
    then scroll down the rest see especially Figs 1and 2.

    “The Rules of the Lebensraum game with no CO2 Climate Crisis.
    SUMMARY
    1.The earth has now reached a population level which has generated a battle for Lebensraum, i.e. energy and food resources, in Ukraine. The associated covid pandemic, and global poverty and income disparity increases, threaten the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. During the last major influenza epidemic in 1919 world population was 1.9 billion. It is now 7.8 billion+/ – an approximate four fold increase.

    The IPCC and UNFCCC post modern science establishment’s “consensus” is that a modelled future increase in CO2 levels is the main threat to human civilization. This is an egregious error of scientific judgement. A Millennial Solar ” Activity” Peak at 1991 correlates with the Millennial Temperature Peak at 2003/4 with a 12/13 year delay because of the thermal inertia of the oceans. Earth has now entered a general cooling trend which will last for the next 700+/- years.
    Because of the areal distribution and variability in the energy density of energy resources and the varying per capita use of energy in different countries, international power relationships have been transformed. The global free trade system and global supply chains have been disrupted.

    Additionally, the worlds richest and most easily accessible key mineral deposits were mined first and the lower quality resources which remain in the 21st century are distributed without regard to national boundaries and demand. As population grows inflation inevitably skyrockets. War between states and violent conflicts between tribes and religious groups within states are multiplying.

    2 The Millennial Temperature Cycle Peak.
    Latest Data (1) https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt

    Global Temp Data 2003/12 Anomaly 0.26 : 2022/9 Anomaly 0.24 Net cooling for 19 years

    Tropics Temp Data 2004/01 Anomaly 0.22 : 2022/9 Anomaly 0.03 Net cooling for 19 years.

    USA 48 Temp Data 2004/03 Anomaly 1.32 : 2022/9 Anomaly 0.59 Net cooling for 19 years.

    There is obviously NO CO2 Caused Climate Crisis.

    Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between the phases of natural cyclic processes of varying wavelengths and amplitudes. At all scales, including the scale of the solar planetary system, sub-sets of oscillating systems develop synchronous behaviors which then produce changing patterns of periodicities in time and space in the emergent temperature data. The periodicities pertinent to current estimates of future global temperature change fall into two main categories:

    a) The orbital long wave Milankovitch eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles. These control the glacial and interglacial periodicities and the amplitudes of the corresponding global temperature cycles.
    b) Solar activity cycles with multi-millennial, millennial, centennial and decadal time scales.

    The most prominent solar activity and temperature cycles are : Schwab-11+/-years ; Hale-22 +/-years ; 3 x the Jupiter/Saturn lap cycle 60 years +/- :; Gleissberg 88+/- ; de Vries – 210 years+/-; Millennial- 960-1020 +/-. (2)

    The Oulu Galactic Ray Count is used in this paper as the “solar activity ” proxy which integrates changes in Solar Magnetic field strength, Total Solar Insolation , Extreme Ultra Violet radiation, Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength, Solar Wind density and velocity, Coronal Mass Ejections, proton events, ozone levels and the geomagnetic Bz sign. Changes in the GCR neutron count proxy source causes concomitant modulations in cloud cover and thus albedo. (Iris effect)………..” see more

  6. Hey Javier (and Ren, if you are around), please start a debate on the extraordinary wet period currently being felt in southern australia.
    I saw some comments about the effect of Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha’apai, but I would like to see this further explored.

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  10. Javier

    Have you gotten any feedback on your work (Vinos 2022) from climate scientists active in solar research? From reviewing the literature several years ago I was surprised at how many recent papers I found. Relying on only the blogosphere one would have assumed the field was populated by only a couple of cranks and shysters. Actually, there is a tremendous body of work out there.

    What is the buzz within the solar research community about your hypothesis?

    • CKid,

      I am not really a part of the solar research community since I am not a climatologist or astrophysicist, so I can’t tell if my hypothesis is being considered.

      I do get a trickle of e-mails for all kind of climatologists. About 25 requested a pdf copy of the book, several from China, and Svetlana Veretenenko also, but she didn’t say anything. Some climatologists are very impressed with the book. One said it was a “tour de force.”

      In general paleoclimatologists appear to be very happy with the book, I am getting more feedback from them. I suspect skepticism runs higher among them.

      The book has already been read 800 times in Researchgate in a month. This constitutes a very high interest. According to RG:
      “This item’s Research Interest Score is higher than 98% of research items published in 2022.”
      By discipline, those registered as scientists that have read my book are:
      Climatology 35
      Meteorology 23
      Paleoclimatology 18
      Oceanography 17
      Experimental Physics 10
      Geology 9

      New hypotheses have a high risk of being ignored, but my fear of “Publish and perish,” has greatly reduced.

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  17. I suspect that some of the intrigue about a 60 year cycle originates from Chinese astrology, the 60 year Jupiter-Saturn cycle of three Jupiter-Saturn synodic periods in a trigon.
    How that creates a quasi-sinusoidal 60 year AMO envelope requires invoking some kind of magic. But the bizarre thing is the fixation with a fixed length cycle, when clearly both AMO envelopes and centennial solar minima intervals vary in length considerably. They have to vary as the ordering of sunspot cycle maxima is by heliocentric quadrupole configurations, within elliptical orbit paths. Additionally some multi-body synodic series are rather lumpy at lower numbers, like the Jupiter-Saturn-Uranus configuration behind the heatwaves of 1934, 1949, 1976, 2003, and 2018. They occur in a triplet every 69.05 years (mean), but after four 69.05 year steps, they have drifted slightly, and a 42.5 year step (which is within the 69yr triplet), gets them back into sync at 317.67 years (mean), and 317.67yrs repeats many times before needing a shorter step to reset. 317.67yrs before 2003 was the unusually mild winter of 1686 in the Maunder Minimum, the second or third mildest in over 360 years.
    Cycles of centennial solar minima are initially at 110.5 years (mean), but resolve to a mean 107.9 years over a very stable 1726.62 year cycle, which repeats for about 30kyrs before needing to reset with an Earth-Venus synodic period.
    The same principle applies to any two body synodic period. Like with lunations and years, the first near matches are at 8 and 11 years, both at 19 years is closer, and all the close matches in larger numbers will be multiples of 19 plus either 8 or 11. With Earth and Mars the first two are 32 and 47 years and with 79 years being closer.

  18. Matthew R Marler

    Javier Vinós, Thank you for this essay.

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