by Judith Curry
I am in the Netherlands, attending a Workshop on The Roles of Climate Models: Epistemic, Ethical, and Socio-political Perspectives.
I am particularly excited to meet many researchers from the philosophy of science community whom I have referenced in my recent papers (especially Uncertainty Monster).
From the meeting website:
Climate models influence our understanding of climate change, its causes and its future. They are a central technology of climate science. But they are also sources of information for far-reaching policy decisions, sites of multidisciplinary integration, products of distributed epistemic labor and much more. As a consequence, climate models are of significant interest to scholars in philosophy, history of science, and science and technology studies. This workshop will bring together well-regarded scholars in these fields along with established climate scientists to explore the epistemic, ethical and socio-political roles that climate models play, their interactions and implications.
The program:
| Thursday, October 31 | |
|---|---|
| 09:00 – 09:15h | Welcome and Coffee |
| 09:15 – 09:30h | Introduction to the workshop |
| 09:30 – 10:20h | Judith Curry: “A 21st century perspective on climate models from a climate scientist” |
| Comments by Wendy Parker | |
| 10:20 – 10:40h | Coffee/tea break |
| 10:40 – 11:30h | Gregor Betz: “Are Climate Models Credible Worlds? Prospects and Limitations of Possibilistic Climate Prediction” |
| Comments by Rafaela Hillerbrand | |
| 11:30 – 12:30h | Group discussion session 1: The epistemic roles of climate models [Facilitator: Lenny Smith] |
| 12:30 – 14:00h | Lunch break |
| 14:00 – 14:50h | Kristen Intemann: “Values in Climate Modeling: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly” |
| Comments by Behnam Taebi | |
| 14:50 – 15:40h | Steven Yearley: “Models and muggles, representations of ‘models’ in professional, policy and public discourses” |
| Comments by Matthias Heymann | |
| 15:40 – 16:00h | Coffee/tea break |
| 16:00 – 17:00h | Group discussion session 2: The centrality of climate models to climate science [Facilitators: Joel Katzav and Wendy Parker] |
xxx
| Friday, November 1 | |
|---|---|
| 09:00 – 09.30h | Welcome and Coffee |
| 09:30 – 10:20h | Suraje Dessai: “The role of climate models in informing climate adaptation decisions” |
| Comments by Joyashree Roy | |
| 10:20 – 10:40h | Coffee/tea break |
| 10:40 – 11:30h | Erica Thompson: “Assessing the evidence: How decision-makers could gain useful insight from climate model results” |
| Comments by David Sexton | |
| 11:30 – 12:30h | Group discussion session 3: The socio-political roles of climate models and the roles of values in climate models [Facilitator: Wendy Parker] |
| 12:30 – 14:00h | Lunch break |
| 14:00 – 14:50h | Gavin Schmidt: Title TBA |
| Comments by Joel Katzav | |
| 14:50 – 15:10h | Coffee/tea break |
| 15:10 – 16:30h | Group discussion session 4: The freelance climate science movement, climate science blogs and climate models [Facilitator: Joel Katzav] |
The abstract for my talk:
A 21st century perspective on climate models from a climate scientist
Judith Curry
Georgia Institute of Technology
Summary
Over the past two decades, the climate modeling community has increasingly interlinked the dual objectives of advancing scientific understanding of the climate system and providing actionable projections for decision makers. Arguments are provided that climate models are inadequate for both of these objectives and that the current path of climate model development is unlikely to significantly improve this situation. It is argued that the power and authority that is accumulating around GCMs and the expended resources, if continued, could be detrimental to both scientific progress and policy applications. To make progress on understanding the climate system and providing useful information for decision makers, I propose that two distinct strategies are needed, both of which de-emphasize the current strategy of building a comprehensive Earth System Model based on a general circulation model. Elements of the proposed strategies include:
I. Understanding the climate system: increased plurality in numerical climate model structural form; increased focus on lower order models and creativity in experimental design using models that are less computationally extensive; alternative approaches from network theory, information theory, dynamical systems; engagement of expertise from outside the traditional climate modeling community.
II. Supporting decision making: improve understanding of historical regional climate dynamics and black swan events; creative, regional approaches to scenario development; development of regional extended peer communities that support assembly and evaluation of climate and relevant land use, population and alternative policy scenarios.
A completely general, all encompassing climate model that is accepted by all scientists and is fit for all purposes seems to be an idealistic fantasy. Given the compromises made for multiple purposes, current and planned Earth System climate models may not be an optimal solution for any of these purposes.
My ppt presentation can be downloaded here [curry presentation].
Not sure if the papers and ppt presentations will be publicly available, but I hope to have material for another post on this Workshop.