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Year in review: 2011

by Judith Curry

So, during 2011,  what was interesting and what “mattered” in the climate debate?

A few other blogs have put out top 10 lists of stories related science, climate, and/or energy.

Neil Wagner at Huffingtonpost has an article entitled “Climate Change 2011 Year in Review:  Good News, Bad News.

Climate change news in 2011 played out like a “good news, bad news” joke. “Good news! This year wasn’t as warm as 2010!” “Good to hear.” “But it was history’s tenth warmest year.” “D-OH!”

We read that renewable energy has surpassed fossil fuel in new energy investment for the first time in history, but learned from the same article that the United Nations’ climate talks are going badly.

RealClearScience Top 10 Stories for 2011 includes a climate story as #8:

#8. Climategate 2.0 & BEST Study.

The son of Climategate returned as Climategate 2.0. Yet another batch of unflattering emails — around 5,000 — were leaked onto the Internet in mid-November. The emails showed an apparent attempt by prominent climate researchers to be less than transparent about the scientific evidence of anthropogenic global warming. In stark contrast to the scandal redux, a leading team of scientists released the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) study in October. Analyzing temperature data from over 39,000 temperature stations worldwide, BEST found that global warming is indeed real, reporting, “reliable evidence of a rise in the average world land temperature of approximately 1 degree Celsius since the mid-1950s.”

Top Energy Stories from National Geographic:

10.  Time Running Out on Global Warming

This was the year that dashed the hopes raised over the seeming slowdown in carbon dioxide emissions, now clearly seen as a brief pause caused by  economic slowdown. Although global economies have not rebounded, fossil fuel emissions have. The World Meteorological Association confirmed late this year that the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new post-industrial age high in 2010, and the rate of increase has accelerated.

Fueled largely by coal, in 2011 China overtook the United States as the world’s biggest energy user—one of many reasons that greenhouse gas emissions have broken new records, after a dip in 2009 following the economic crash. (Above, laborers in China look for usable coal at a cinder dump site.)

The International Energy Agency (IEA) concluded that fossil fuel demand is growing so fast that the world now has only about five years to make a dramatic turnaround in policies to keep global warming below 3.6°F (2°C), a threshold many countries have pledged to stay below.

In many richer nations, economic woes had governments pulling back on policies to limit the burning of fossil fuel. Spain and the United Kingdom, among others, slashed their subsidies for renewable energy, and investment in wind and solar did not continue to soar as it had before the crash. Nonetheless, in 2011 investment in renewables surpassed that for fossil fuels for the first time.

The other big stor(ies) have been about weather/climate disasters, for a review see Yahoo’s Year in Review:  Extreme Weather.

Climate Etc.’s greatest “hits”

While all of the above topics have been at least been mentioned at Climate Etc., we have mostly been talking about other things.  Since Climate Etc. is still a relatively young blog and the participants are rather fluid, I can’t usually predict which posts will attract a lot of comments or links from other blogs.  The blogs that seem to attract the greatest number of hits are issues that are hot topics in the politics of climate science (with the obvious exception of the greenhouse dragon, which I will discuss below).
The posts with the largest number of hits over the past year are the following:
Hiding the Decline
Slaying a greenhouse dragon
The IPCC’s alteration of Forster & Gregory’s model-independent climate sensitivity results
Mail on BEST
Carbon cycle questions
Laframboise on the IPCC
Slaying the Greenhouse Dragon. Part IV
Candid comments from global warming scientists
Berkeley Surface Temperatures: Released
Hiding the Decline: Part II
Update on the Spencer & Braswell paper
Discussion with Rich Muller
Emails
When I have a technical post, there is generally some good albeit limited discussion, but comments invariably want to veer onto broader topics.  The greenhouse effect remains of enduring interest.  On some of the threads, physical chemists and molecular physicists showed up to provide their insights and clarify understanding.  But these misconceptions remain in the dragonslayer group, although that group seems to be shrinking.
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JC’s picks
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Number of hits does not equate with quality of post of of discussion, IMO.  Last year, I selected certain posts based upon my perception of the quality of the original content of the post.  This year I am using a different criteria:  posts that reflect new understanding or changes to my thinking relative to a year ago (this list does not include any of those on the greatest ‘hits’ list).  My selected posts are:
If you missed any of these the first time around, check them out.
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Your views?
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So, what do you think were the most interesting stories for 2011, and the most interesting posts at Climate Etc.?  What did we miss? On New Years day, I will do a post on ideas for the new year.
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My very best wishes to all of you for the New Year.  My thanks to all of you for reading and participating.  Special thanks to those of you that have done guest posts, and also to those of you that email me with suggestions for topics.
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