Search Results for: uncertainty monster

Hegerl et al. react to the Uncertainty Monster paper

by Judith Curry Gabrielle Hegerl, Peter Stott, Susan Solomon, and Francis Zwiers have published a comment to our paper “Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster.”  Webster and Curry respond.  The CRU emails provide some interesting context for this discussion. .

Sensitivity about sensitivity

by Judith Curry . . . the IPCC’s sensitivity estimate cannot readily be reconciled with forcing estimates and observational data. – James Annan

Atlantic vs Pacific vs AGW

by Judith Curry I hope this will lead to a broader discussion about the contribution of natural variability to local climate trends and to the statistics of extreme events. – John Michael Wallace

Uncertainty monster visits MIT

by Judith Curry This Thursday, I will be visiting the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences (EAPS) at MIT, giving the Victor Starr Lecture.

Taylor and Ravetz on the value of uncertainty

by Judith Curry . . . this “crisp number” mode of thinking has promoted the use of over-simplistic models and masking of uncertainties that can in turn lead to incomplete understanding of problems and bad decisions. – Peter Taylor and … Continue reading

Uncertainty Monster paper in press

by Judith Curry My paper “Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster” is in press at the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Does the Aliasing Beast Feed the Uncertainty Monster?

by Richard Saumarez Many continuous signals are sampled so that they can be manipulated digitally.  We assume that the train of samples in the time domain gives a true picture of what the underlying signal is doing, but can we … Continue reading

Uncertainty monster visits MIT: Part II

by Judith Curry I’m in San Diego, with a few moments to catch up on the blog and share my impressions of my visit to MIT.

Uncertainty in SST measurements and data sets

by Judith Curry Two new papers that discuss uncertainty in surface temperature measurements.

Quote of the week

by Judith Curry I can envisage an irony of history where climatology enters a period of crisis and loses its central place in public discourse about climate change, thus opening up discursive spaces for pragmatic options to deal with the … Continue reading

Stratospheric uncertainty

by Judith Curry The new data call into question our understanding of observed stratospheric temperature trends and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. – Thompson et al.

UK-US Workshop Part IV: Limits of climate models for adaptation decision making

by Judith Curry This post discusses Workshop presentations on the utility of climate models for regional adaptation decisions.

Taming the Uncertainty Monster

by Judith Curry The concluding section in my draft paper on “Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster” (discussed previously on this thread) is entitled “Taming the uncertainty monster.”

Climate sensitivity in the AR5 SOD

by Judith Curry By far the most important debate about climate change is taking place among scientists, on the issue of climate sensitivity: How much warming will a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide actually produce?  – Matt Ridley

Italian seismologists: guilty(?)

by Judith Curry Six Italian scientists and an ex-government official have been sentenced to six years in prison over the 2009 deadly earthquake in L’Aquila. – BBC

The ethics of framing science

by Judith Curry . . . as scientists are increasingly viewed not as honest brokers, but as advocates aligned with the goals of the Democratic party, scientists and their organizations risk losing public trust and only likely contribute to polarization … Continue reading

Breaking News: Gleick Confesses

by Judith Curry Peter Gleick Admits to Deception in Obtaining Heartland Files

Climate model discussion thread

by Judith Curry My perspective on climate models (uncertainty monster, DOE presentation, RS presentation) have been regarded as outside the ‘mainstream’.  Here are some new papers by leading climate modelers that provide new evidence and arguments on the concerns that … Continue reading

‘Pause’ : Waving the Italian Flag

by Judith Curry The recent articles in the Daily Mail and the Guardian are generating heated reactions – more heat than light.  Lets break down the arguments on both side and assess them systematically.

Psychology of Uncertainty

by Judith Curry When we fail to distinguish between discovering order IN nature and imposing order ON nature, we have lost relationship with the very thing we yearn to know. Whereas once we were students of nature, looking to her for meaning, we now denigrate her … Continue reading

Social cost of carbon

by Judith Curry The debate on the social cost of carbon is heating up.

John Christy’s EPW testimony

by Judith Curry John Christy’s testimony to the Senate Committee Environment & Public Works Committee can be found here [christy testimony 2012].

Philosophical reflections on climate model projections

by Judith Curry Should probabilistic qualities be assigned to climate model projections? Are the approaches used by the IPCC for assessing climate model projection quality – confidence building, subjective Bayesian, and likelihood –  appropriate for climate models? What are some … Continue reading

ACS Webinar on Climate Change: Part II

by Judith Curry A very interesting session yesterday, I now have links to  the ppt presentations.

Observation-based (?) attribution

by Judith Curry Moreover, it appears likely that essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases. These findings are stronger than those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations group that defines the … Continue reading