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Search Results for: deep uncertainty
Climate science’s ‘masking bias’ problem
by Judith Curry How valid conclusions often lay hidden within research reports, masked by plausible but unjustified conclusions reached in those reports. And how the IPCC institutionalizes such masking errors in climate science.
Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science, Uncertainty
Discussion: JC’s ‘role’
by Judith Curry In view of recent controversies, numerous criticisms have been made about my ‘role,’ with expectations of things that I ‘should’ be doing.
Posted in Sociology of science
Early 20th century global warming
by Judith Curry A careful look at the early 20th century global warming, which is almost as large as the warming since 1950. Until we can explain the early 20th century warming, I have little confidence IPCC and NCA4 attribution … Continue reading
Posted in Attribution
Week in review – energy, water and food edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Energy, Week in review
Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part VI. Projections for the 21st century
by Judith Curry The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.
Posted in Oceans
CAGW: a ‘snarl’ word?
The term ‘CAGW’ has both appropriate and inappropriate usage.
Posted in Communication
JC in transition
by Judith Curry Effective January 1, I have resigned my tenured faculty position at Georgia Tech.
Posted in Sociology of science
Will advances in groundwater science force a paradigm shift in sea level rise attribution?
by Jim Steele A better accounting of natural groundwater discharge is needed to constrain the range of contributions to sea level rise. The greater the contribution from groundwater discharge, the smaller the adjustments used to amplify contributions from meltwater and … Continue reading
Posted in Attribution, Oceans
Four questions on climate change
by Garth Paltridge An essay on the state of climate change science.
Posted in Sociology of science
Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions
By Nic Lewis An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections. AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC, Sensitivity & feedbacks
The catastrophe narrative
by Andy West A narrative propagated by emotive engagement, not veracity.
Posted in Communication, Sociology of science
Nature Unbound X – The next glaciation
by Javier Summary: The IPCC expresses virtual certainty that a glaciation is not possible for the next 50 Kyr if CO2levels remain above 300 ppm. It is the long interglacial hypothesis. Analysis of interglacials of the past 800 Kyr shows … Continue reading
Posted in Prediction
The Uncertainty Monster: Lessons From Non-Orthodox Economics
by Vincent Randall A perspective on economists’ grappling with the ‘uncertainty monster.’
Posted in Economics, Uncertainty
Sea level rise acceleration (or not). Part V: detection & attribution
by Judith Curry In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of … Continue reading
Posted in Attribution, Oceans
Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part II – The geological record
By Judith Curry Part II of the Climate Etc. series on sea level rise –the geological record provides context for the recent sea level rise.
Posted in Oceans
Attribution of extreme weather events?
by Judith Curry The National Academies has published a new report: Attribution of extreme weather events in the context of climate change.
Posted in Attribution, Extreme events
Steve Koonin: A Deceptive New Report on Climate
by Judith Curry Red-teaming the the U.S. government’s Climate Science Special Report on the topic of sea level rise.
Posted in Oceans, Sociology of science
Nature Unbound VIII – Modern global warming
by Javier Summary: Modern Global Warming has been taking place for the past 300 years. It is the last of several multi-century warming periods that have happened during the Neoglacial cooling of the past 3000 years. Analysis of Holocene climate … Continue reading
Posted in Attribution, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Nature Unbound IX – 21st Century Climate Change
by Javier A conservative outlook on 21st century climate change
Posted in Prediction
Climate models and precautionary measures
by Judith Curry Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – Nassim Taleb
Posted in climate models, Policy, Uncertainty
Warming patterns are unlikely to explain low historical estimates of climate sensitivity
By Nic Lewis A critique of of a new paper by Andrews et al., Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity.
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
What’s wrong with ‘alternative facts’?
by Kip Hansen ‘Alternative facts’ is a term in law to describe inconsistent sets of facts put forth in a court given that there is plausible evidence to support both alternatives. The term is also used to describe competing facts … Continue reading
Posted in Sociology of science
Global climate agreements could be counterproductive
by Judith Curry International climate agreements like the Kyoto Protocol may discourage much-needed investment in renewable energy sources, and hence be counterprodutive, according to new research.
Posted in Policy
Lukewarming
by Judith Curry Two new books on lukewarming have recently been published.
Posted in Attribution, Communication, Policy
Will the Oroville Dam survive the ARkStorm?
by David Hagen Should California plan for permanent drought or climate persistence?
Posted in Climate change impacts
