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Search Results for: validation
Dust deposition on ice sheets: a mechanism for termination of ice ages?
by Donald Rapp In a recent paper, Ellis and Palmer (2016) proposed that deposition of dust on giant ice sheets, thus reducing their albedo, was a principal factor in the termination of Ice Ages over the past 800 kyrs.
Posted in Attribution, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Global climate models and the laws of physics
by Dan Hughes We frequently see the simple statement, “The Laws of Physics”, invoked as the canonical summary of the status of the theoretical basis of GCMs.
Posted in climate models
Assessing atmospheric temperature data sets for climate studies
By Judith Curry It is therefore suggested to use either the more robust tropospheric temperature or ocean surface temperature in studies of climate sensitivity. – Cederlof, Bengtsson, Hodges
Posted in Data and observations
The art and science of climate model tuning
by Judith Curry We survey the rationale and diversity of approaches for tuning, a fundamental aspect of climate modeling which should be more systematically documented and taken into account in multi-model analysis. – Hourdin et al.
Posted in climate models, Uncertainty
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week
Posted in Week in review
Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change
by Judith Curry When it comes to climate change, the procedure by which experts assess the accuracy of models projecting potentially ruinous outcomes for the planet and society is surprisingly informal. – Michael Oppenheimer
Posted in Uncertainty
End of the satellite data warming pause?
by Judith Curry Ted Cruz’s favorite temperature data set just got a lot hotter.
Posted in Data and observations
Insights from Karl Popper: how to open the deadlocked climate debate
by Larry Kummer, from the Fabius Maximus website. Many factors have frozen the public policy debate on climate change, but none more important than the disinterest of both sides in tests that might provide better evidence — and perhaps restart … Continue reading
Posted in Attribution, Scientific method
Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus
by Bob Tisdale A closer look at the uncertainties in the mid 20th century ocean surface temperatures.
Posted in Oceans
Managing uncertainty in predictions of climate change and impacts
by Judith Curry Climatic Change has a new special issue: Managing Uncertainty Predictions of Climate Change and Impacts.
Posted in Uncertainty
The conceits of consensus
by Judith Curry Critiques, the 3%, and is 47 the new 97?
Posted in Consensus
Climate Change, Epistemic Trust, and Expert Trustworthiness
by Judith Curry Among the best indirect indicators available to nonexperts is the overwhelming numbers of scientists testifying to anthropogenic climate change. Yet the evidential significance of such clear numbers turns substantially on our nonexpert assessment of these scientists’ trustworthiness. … Continue reading
Posted in Consensus
Pondering Nepal’s hazards
by David L. Hagen Nepal just experienced a great 7.8 magnitude earthquake on April 25th, 2015 with major (6.7 and 6.6 magnitude) aftershocks..
Posted in Climate change impacts
Will a return of rising temperatures validate the climate models?
by Donald C. Morton The coincidence of the current plateau in global surface temperatures with the continuing rise in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has raised many questions about the climate models and their forecasts of serious anthropogenic global … Continue reading
Posted in climate models
Cognitive bias – how petroleum scientists deal with it
by Peter Rose Everyone complains about the Weather but nobody does anything about it!
Posted in Sociology of science, Uncertainty
Root Cause Analysis of the Modern Warming
by Matt Skaggs For years, climate scientists have followed reasoning that goes from climate model simulations to expert opinion, declaring that to be sufficient. But that is not how attribution works.
Posted in Attribution
Consensus angst
by Judith Curry The public seems to have gotten the memo that climate scientists believe that humans are warming the planet, and the warming is dangerous. They also don’t seem to care.
Posted in Consensus
How simple is simple?
by Tomas Milanovic This essay has been motivated by Isaac Held’s paper [link] arguing for possible emerging simplicity or even linearity in climate dynamics.
Posted in climate models
Lennart Bengtsson speaks out
by Judith Curry The whole concept behind IPCC is basically wrong. – Lennart Bengtsson
UK-US Workshop Part IV: Limits of climate models for adaptation decision making
by Judith Curry This post discusses Workshop presentations on the utility of climate models for regional adaptation decisions.
Posted in Adaptation, climate models
What scientific ideas are ready for retirement?
by Judith Curry So, what scientific idea do YOU think is ready for retirement?
Posted in Scientific method
Hearing: A Factual Look at the Relationship Between Climate and Weather
by Judith Curry The U.S. House Subcommittee on Environment is holding a Hearing today: A Factual Look at the Relationship Between Climate and Weather.
Posted in Climate change impacts
Skeptics vs academics
by Judith Curry I am trying to understand how sceptics and warmists can look at pretty much the same information and come up with two very different conclusions – Mike Haseler, the Scottish Sceptic
Posted in Uncategorized
A standard for policy-relevant science
by Judith Curry In Nature, Ian Boyd calls for an auditing process to help policy-makers to navigate research bias.
Posted in Uncategorized
Climate Data Records: Maturity Matrix
by Judith Curry The demand for climate information, with long observational records spanning decades to centuries and the information’s broad application for decision making across many socioeconomic sectors, requires that geophysicists adopt more rigorous processes for the sustained production of … Continue reading
Posted in Data and observations
