Search Results for: validation

Dust deposition on ice sheets: a mechanism for termination of ice ages?

by Donald Rapp In a recent paper, Ellis and Palmer (2016) proposed that deposition of dust on giant ice sheets, thus reducing their albedo, was a principal factor in the termination of Ice Ages over the past 800 kyrs.

Global climate models and the laws of physics

by Dan Hughes We frequently see the simple statement, “The Laws of Physics”, invoked as the canonical summary of the status of the theoretical basis of GCMs.

Assessing atmospheric temperature data sets for climate studies

By Judith Curry It is therefore suggested to use either the more robust tropospheric temperature or ocean surface temperature in studies of climate sensitivity. – Cederlof, Bengtsson, Hodges

The art and science of climate model tuning

by Judith Curry We survey the rationale and diversity of approaches for tuning, a fundamental aspect of climate modeling which should be more systematically documented and taken into account in multi-model analysis. – Hourdin et al.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week

Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change

by Judith Curry When it comes to climate change, the procedure by which experts assess the accuracy of models projecting potentially ruinous outcomes for the planet and society is surprisingly informal. – Michael Oppenheimer

End of the satellite data warming pause?

by Judith Curry Ted Cruz’s favorite temperature data set just got a lot hotter.

Insights from Karl Popper: how to open the deadlocked climate debate

by Larry Kummer, from the Fabius Maximus website. Many factors have frozen the public policy debate on climate change, but none more important than the disinterest of both sides in tests that might provide better evidence — and perhaps restart … Continue reading

Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus

by Bob Tisdale A closer look at the uncertainties in the mid 20th century ocean surface temperatures.

Managing uncertainty in predictions of climate change and impacts

by Judith Curry Climatic Change has a new special issue:  Managing Uncertainty Predictions of Climate Change and Impacts.

The conceits of consensus

by Judith Curry Critiques, the 3%, and is 47 the new 97?

Climate Change, Epistemic Trust, and Expert Trustworthiness

by Judith Curry Among the best indirect indicators available to nonexperts is the overwhelming numbers of scientists testifying to anthropogenic climate change. Yet the evidential significance of such clear numbers turns substantially on our nonexpert assessment of these scientists’ trustworthiness. … Continue reading

Pondering Nepal’s hazards

by David L. Hagen Nepal just experienced a great 7.8 magnitude earthquake  on April 25th, 2015 with major (6.7 and 6.6 magnitude) aftershocks..

Will a return of rising temperatures validate the climate models?

by Donald C. Morton The coincidence of the current plateau in global surface temperatures with the continuing rise in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has raised many questions about the climate models and their forecasts of serious anthropogenic global … Continue reading

Cognitive bias – how petroleum scientists deal with it

by Peter Rose Everyone complains about the Weather but nobody does anything about it!

Root Cause Analysis of the Modern Warming

by Matt Skaggs For years, climate scientists have followed reasoning that goes from climate model simulations to expert opinion, declaring that to be sufficient. But that is not how attribution works.

Consensus angst

by Judith Curry The public seems to have gotten the memo that climate scientists believe that humans are warming the planet, and the warming is dangerous.  They also don’t seem to care.

How simple is simple?

by Tomas Milanovic This essay has been motivated by Isaac Held’s paper [link] arguing for possible emerging simplicity or even linearity in climate dynamics.

Lennart Bengtsson speaks out

by Judith Curry The whole concept behind IPCC is basically wrong. – Lennart Bengtsson

UK-US Workshop Part IV: Limits of climate models for adaptation decision making

by Judith Curry This post discusses Workshop presentations on the utility of climate models for regional adaptation decisions.

What scientific ideas are ready for retirement?

by Judith Curry So, what scientific idea do YOU think is ready for retirement?

Hearing: A Factual Look at the Relationship Between Climate and Weather

by Judith Curry The U.S. House Subcommittee on  Environment is holding a Hearing today: A Factual Look at the Relationship Between Climate and Weather.

Skeptics vs academics

by Judith Curry I am trying to understand how sceptics and warmists can look at pretty much the same information and come up with two very different conclusions – Mike Haseler, the Scottish Sceptic

A standard for policy-relevant science

by Judith Curry In Nature, Ian Boyd calls for an auditing process to help policy-makers to navigate research bias.

Climate Data Records: Maturity Matrix

by Judith Curry The demand for climate information, with long observational records spanning decades to centuries and the information’s broad application for decision making across many socioeconomic sectors, requires that geophysicists adopt more rigorous processes for the sustained production of … Continue reading