Search Results for: uncertainty monster

Decision making under uncertainty – maximize expected social welfare

by  -1=e^i pi Expected social welfare maximization is where you try to obtain the set of parameters (such as climate change policies) that will maximize the expected value of a social welfare function.

Structured expert judgment

by Judith Curry Any attempt to impose agreement will “promote confusion between consensus and certainty”. The goal should be to quantify uncertainty, not to remove it from the decision process. –  Willy Aspinall

Ethics and climate change policy

by Judith Curry Every aspect of climate change is shaped by ethical dispute: from scientific practice to lobbying and activism and eventually, at national and international levels, the setting and implementation of climate policy. – Peter Lee

Worst case scenario versus fat tail

by Judith Curry  If we omit discussion of tail risk, are we really telling the whole truth? 

The legacy of Climategate: 5 years later

by Judith Curry UPDATE: new email from student that motivated “An open letter . .” Every year at Thanksgiving, I am reminded of Climategate.

Lewis and Curry: Climate sensitivity uncertainty

by Judith Curry Our new paper on climate sensitivity is now published.

IPCC and treatment of uncertainties

by Judith Curry A new review paper on the IPCC and treatment of uncertainties.

The 50-50 argument

by Judith Curry Pick one: a)  Warming since 1950 is predominantly (more than 50%)  caused by humans. b)  Warming since 1950 is predominantly caused by natural processes.

State of the blog discussion thread

by Judith Curry After almost four years of blogging at Climate Etc., its time for some reflection

Model structural uncertainty – are GCMs the best tools?

by Judith Curry Rarely are the following questions asked:  Is the approach that we are taking to climate modeling adequate?  Could other model structural forms be more useful for advancing climate science and informing policy?

Simplicity amidst complexity (?)

by Judith Curry Isaac Held’s new article in Science raises some interesting questions.

U.S. House Hearing on the IPCC Process

by Judith Curry The U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space & Technology is holding a Hearing today at 11 a.m.: Examining the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Process

Inadequate uncertainty analysis in climate change assessments

by Judith Curry Use of state-of-the-art statistical methods could substantially improve the quantification of uncertainty in assessments of climate change.

Workshop on the Roles of Climate Models

by Judith Curry I am in the Netherlands, attending a Workshop on The Roles of Climate Models: Epistemic, Ethical, and  Socio-political Perspectives.

95% (?)

Ok, it is now official: “The long-term climate model simulations show a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend (very high confidence). There are, however, differences between simulated and observed trends over periods as … Continue reading

Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years

by Judith Curry Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models. This difference might be explained by some combination of errors in external forcing, model response and internal climate variability.

Who is on which ‘side’ in the climate debate, anyways?

by Judith Curry Well, if you judge ‘sides’ by what climate scientists have to say about the science, it is getting difficult to tell.

Uncertainty in SST measurements and data sets

by Judith Curry Two new papers that discuss uncertainty in surface temperature measurements.

Overconfidence(?)

by Judith Curry Yet not once has overconfidence by actual scientists been demonstrated. You just keep making that up. – Chris Colose

Atlantic vs Pacific vs AGW

by Judith Curry I hope this will lead to a broader discussion about the contribution of natural variability to local climate trends and to the statistics of extreme events. – John Michael Wallace

Mainstreaming ECS ~ 2 C

by Judith Curry Humanity has a second chance to stop dangerous climate change. Temperature data from the last decade offers an unexpected opportunity to stay below the agreed international target of 2 °C of global warming. – New Scientist

Garth Paltridge held hostage (?) by the uncertainty monster

by Andy Lacis JC note:  this essay responds to Garth Paltridge’s recent post Science held hostage in climate debate. What’s up with Garth? Why the surprisingly out of touch lack of understanding of what it is that makes the global … Continue reading

How should we interpret an ensemble of models? Part II: Climate models

by Judith Curry To solve these pressing problems, there needs to be much better recognition of the importance of probability models in climate science and a more integrated view of climate modelling whereby climate prediction involves the fusion of numerical climate … Continue reading

Climate model tuning

by Judith Curry Arguably the most poorly documented aspect of climate models is how they are calibrated, or ‘tuned’

Open thread weekend.

Here in the U.S. we have been distracted all week by Hurricane Sandy and Presidential election.  Its your turn to introduce some new topics for discussion.