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Search Results for: uncertainty monster
Decision making under uncertainty – maximize expected social welfare
by -1=e^i pi Expected social welfare maximization is where you try to obtain the set of parameters (such as climate change policies) that will maximize the expected value of a social welfare function.
Posted in Policy
Structured expert judgment
by Judith Curry Any attempt to impose agreement will “promote confusion between consensus and certainty”. The goal should be to quantify uncertainty, not to remove it from the decision process. – Willy Aspinall
Posted in Consensus, Uncertainty
Ethics and climate change policy
by Judith Curry Every aspect of climate change is shaped by ethical dispute: from scientific practice to lobbying and activism and eventually, at national and international levels, the setting and implementation of climate policy. – Peter Lee
Posted in Ethics, Policy, Sociology of science
Worst case scenario versus fat tail
by Judith Curry If we omit discussion of tail risk, are we really telling the whole truth?
Posted in Uncertainty
The legacy of Climategate: 5 years later
by Judith Curry UPDATE: new email from student that motivated “An open letter . .” Every year at Thanksgiving, I am reminded of Climategate.
Posted in Sociology of science
Lewis and Curry: Climate sensitivity uncertainty
by Judith Curry Our new paper on climate sensitivity is now published.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncertainty
IPCC and treatment of uncertainties
by Judith Curry A new review paper on the IPCC and treatment of uncertainties.
Posted in Uncertainty
The 50-50 argument
by Judith Curry Pick one: a) Warming since 1950 is predominantly (more than 50%) caused by humans. b) Warming since 1950 is predominantly caused by natural processes.
Posted in Attribution, Uncategorized
State of the blog discussion thread
by Judith Curry After almost four years of blogging at Climate Etc., its time for some reflection
Posted in Sociology of science
Model structural uncertainty – are GCMs the best tools?
by Judith Curry Rarely are the following questions asked: Is the approach that we are taking to climate modeling adequate? Could other model structural forms be more useful for advancing climate science and informing policy?
Posted in climate models
Simplicity amidst complexity (?)
by Judith Curry Isaac Held’s new article in Science raises some interesting questions.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
U.S. House Hearing on the IPCC Process
by Judith Curry The U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space & Technology is holding a Hearing today at 11 a.m.: Examining the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Process
Posted in IPCC
Inadequate uncertainty analysis in climate change assessments
by Judith Curry Use of state-of-the-art statistical methods could substantially improve the quantification of uncertainty in assessments of climate change.
Posted in Uncertainty
Workshop on the Roles of Climate Models
by Judith Curry I am in the Netherlands, attending a Workshop on The Roles of Climate Models: Epistemic, Ethical, and Socio-political Perspectives.
Posted in climate models
95% (?)
Ok, it is now official: “The long-term climate model simulations show a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend (very high confidence). There are, however, differences between simulated and observed trends over periods as … Continue reading
Posted in Attribution, IPCC
Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years
by Judith Curry Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models. This difference might be explained by some combination of errors in external forcing, model response and internal climate variability.
Posted in Attribution, climate models
Who is on which ‘side’ in the climate debate, anyways?
by Judith Curry Well, if you judge ‘sides’ by what climate scientists have to say about the science, it is getting difficult to tell.
Uncertainty in SST measurements and data sets
by Judith Curry Two new papers that discuss uncertainty in surface temperature measurements.
Posted in Data and observations, Uncertainty
Overconfidence(?)
by Judith Curry Yet not once has overconfidence by actual scientists been demonstrated. You just keep making that up. – Chris Colose
Posted in Uncertainty
Atlantic vs Pacific vs AGW
by Judith Curry I hope this will lead to a broader discussion about the contribution of natural variability to local climate trends and to the statistics of extreme events. – John Michael Wallace
Posted in Attribution
Mainstreaming ECS ~ 2 C
by Judith Curry Humanity has a second chance to stop dangerous climate change. Temperature data from the last decade offers an unexpected opportunity to stay below the agreed international target of 2 °C of global warming. – New Scientist
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Garth Paltridge held hostage (?) by the uncertainty monster
by Andy Lacis JC note: this essay responds to Garth Paltridge’s recent post Science held hostage in climate debate. What’s up with Garth? Why the surprisingly out of touch lack of understanding of what it is that makes the global … Continue reading
Posted in Skeptics
How should we interpret an ensemble of models? Part II: Climate models
by Judith Curry To solve these pressing problems, there needs to be much better recognition of the importance of probability models in climate science and a more integrated view of climate modelling whereby climate prediction involves the fusion of numerical climate … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, Uncertainty
Climate model tuning
by Judith Curry Arguably the most poorly documented aspect of climate models is how they are calibrated, or ‘tuned’
Posted in climate models
Open thread weekend.
Here in the U.S. we have been distracted all week by Hurricane Sandy and Presidential election. Its your turn to introduce some new topics for discussion.
Posted in Week in review
