Search Results for: rcp

Greater future global warming (still) predicted from Earth’s recent energy budget

by Patrick Brown A response to Nic Lewis’ post A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought.

Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought

by Nic Lewis A critique of a recent paper by Brown and Caldeira published in Nature that predicted greater than expected global warming.

Are Climate Models Overstating Warming?

by Ross McKitrick A number of authors, including the IPCC, have argued that climate models have systematically overstated the rate of global warming in recent decades. A recent paper by Millar et al. (2017) presented the same finding in a … Continue reading

Week in review – science and policy edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Does a new paper really reconcile instrumental and model-based climate sensitivity estimates?

by Nic Lewis A new paper in Science Advances by Cristian Proistosescu and Peter Huybers (hereafter PH17) claims that accounting for the decline in feedback strength over time that occurs in most CMIP5 coupled global climate models (GCMs), brings observationally-based … Continue reading

Estimating the cost to America of damage from climate change in the 21st century

  by Larry Kummer, originally posted at the Fabius Maximus website. Another peer-reviewed paper predicting disaster from climate change by misrepresenting and exaggerating the science. We can still learn much from it.

Prospects for a Prolonged Slowdown in Global Warming in the Early 21st Century

by Nic Lewis [W]e estimate that the warming slowdown (< 0.1 K/decade trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11%, and 6%, respectively. – Knutson et al.

Climate models for lawyers

by Judith Curry I have been asked to write an Expert Report on climate models. ***SEE UPDATE

Some comments on neoskepticism

by Steven E. Koonin Stern et al. offer “The challenge of climate-change neoskepticism” as a Policy Forum piece in the August 12 issue of Science magazine (hereafter SPSK; paywalled here).

Are energy budget climate sensitivity values biased low?

by Nic Lewis In a recently published paper (REA16),[i] Mark Richardson et al. claim that recent observation-based energy budget estimates of the Earth’s transient climate response (TCR) are biased substantially low, with the true value some 24% higher.

Science into agitprop: “Climate Change is Strangling Our Oceans”

by Larry Kummer, from the Fabius Maximus website The public policy debate about climate science shows the dysfunctional nature of the US media. Here’s another example of how propaganda has contaminated the news reporting of this vital subject, looking at … Continue reading

Rise in CO2 has greened planet Earth

by Judith Curry We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAI (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple … Continue reading

Controversy over comparing models with observations

by Judith Curry My draft talk elicited an interesting conversation on twitter, that deserves some wider discussion.

Climate models versus climate reality

by Pat Michaels and Chip Knappenberger Perhaps the most frank example of the growing disconnection between forecast and observed climate change was presented by University of Alabama’s John Christy to the Senate Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness Committee of … Continue reading

How sensitive is global temperature to cumulative CO2 emissions?

by Nic Lewis The mean carbon cycle behaviour of CMIP5 ESMs and EMICs may be quite unrealistic.

Lomborg: Impact of Current Climate Proposals

by Judith Curry Current climate policy promises will do little to stabilize the climate and their impact will be undetectable for many decades. – Bjorn Lomborg

Steve Koonin: The tough realities of the Paris climate talks

by Judith Curry And, overarching all this, the tension between emissions reductions and development is complicated by uncertainties in how the climate will change under human and natural influences and how those changes will impact natural and human systems. – … Continue reading

Hiatus revisionism

by Judith Curry Some interesting new papers on the hiatus in global warming.

Risk assessment: What is the plausible ‘worst scenario’ for climate change?

by Judith Curry We know that climate change is a problem – but how big a problem is it? We have to answer this question before we can make a good decision about how much effort to put into dealing … Continue reading

Follow-up questions re my recent House testimony

by Judith Curry Some interesting follow-up questions from the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology regarding my recent Congressional testimony.

Whats up with the Atlantic?

by Judith Curry The Washington Post has this dramatic headline:  Global warming is now slowing down the circulation of the ocean with potentially dire consequences.

Lessons from the ‘Irreducibly Simple’ kerfuffle

by Rud Istvan UPDATE:  Response from Christopher Monckton The Monckton, Soon, Legates, and Briggs paper “Why models run hot, results from an irreducibly simple climate model” appeared in the January 2015 Science Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). … Continue reading

Will a return of rising temperatures validate the climate models?

by Donald C. Morton The coincidence of the current plateau in global surface temperatures with the continuing rise in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has raised many questions about the climate models and their forecasts of serious anthropogenic global … Continue reading

Challenging the 2 degree target

by Judith Curry “Without significant cuts in emissions by all countries, and in key sectors, the window of opportunity to stay within less than 2 degrees [of warming] will soon close forever.” – UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon

Open thread

by Judith Curry It’s your turn to introduce topics for discussion.