Search Results for: rcp

Sea level rise whiplash

by Judith Curry Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.

Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?

by Nic Lewis *** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. … Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions

By Nic Lewis An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections. AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations … Continue reading

Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.

Special Report on Sea Level Rise

by Judith Curry I have now completed my assessment of sea level rise and climate change.

Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C

by Nic Lewis A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights … Continue reading

A Test of the Tropical 200-300 mb Warming Rate in Climate Models

by Ross McKitrick I sat down to write a description of my new paper with John Christy, but when I looked up a reference via Google Scholar something odd cropped up that requires a brief digression.

Nature Unbound IX – 21st Century Climate Change

by Javier A conservative outlook on 21st century climate change

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part VII U.S. coastal impacts

by Judith Curry The final installment in the CE series on sea level rise.

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part VI. Projections for the 21st century

by Judith Curry The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.

Sea level rise acceleration (or not). Part V: detection & attribution

by Judith Curry In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of … Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Marvel et al.’s new paper on estimating climate sensitivity from observations

by Nic Lewis Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations’.[1]

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part I – Introduction

by Judith Curry Introduction and context for a new Climate Etc. series on sea level rise.

Reply to Patrick Brown’s response to comments on his Nature article

by Nic Lewis My reply to Patrick Brown’s response to my my comments on his Nature article.

Greater future global warming (still) predicted from Earth’s recent energy budget

by Patrick Brown A response to Nic Lewis’ post A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought.

Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought

by Nic Lewis A critique of a recent paper by Brown and Caldeira published in Nature that predicted greater than expected global warming.

Are Climate Models Overstating Warming?

by Ross McKitrick A number of authors, including the IPCC, have argued that climate models have systematically overstated the rate of global warming in recent decades. A recent paper by Millar et al. (2017) presented the same finding in a … Continue reading

Week in review – science and policy edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Does a new paper really reconcile instrumental and model-based climate sensitivity estimates?

by Nic Lewis A new paper in Science Advances by Cristian Proistosescu and Peter Huybers (hereafter PH17) claims that accounting for the decline in feedback strength over time that occurs in most CMIP5 coupled global climate models (GCMs), brings observationally-based … Continue reading

Estimating the cost to America of damage from climate change in the 21st century

  by Larry Kummer, originally posted at the Fabius Maximus website. Another peer-reviewed paper predicting disaster from climate change by misrepresenting and exaggerating the science. We can still learn much from it.

Prospects for a Prolonged Slowdown in Global Warming in the Early 21st Century

by Nic Lewis [W]e estimate that the warming slowdown (< 0.1 K/decade trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11%, and 6%, respectively. – Knutson et al.

Climate models for lawyers

by Judith Curry I have been asked to write an Expert Report on climate models. ***SEE UPDATE

Some comments on neoskepticism

by Steven E. Koonin Stern et al. offer “The challenge of climate-change neoskepticism” as a Policy Forum piece in the August 12 issue of Science magazine (hereafter SPSK; paywalled here).