Search Results for: fat tails

Decision theory and the doom scenario of climate catastrophe

by Lucas Bergkamp Can decision theory help a rational person decide whether to believe in climate catastrophe?

How ‘extreme’ can it get?

by Judith Curry When might we see Category 6 hurricanes?  60C surface temperatures?

Tall tales and fat tails

by Judith Curry The economic value of climate mitigation depends sensitively on the slim possibility of extreme warming.

Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed

by Judith Curry I’ve just returned from China, the first thing I did in the U.S. airport on my layover back to Atlanta was to check twitter.

The Curry factor: 30 to 1

by Judith Curry For balance, for every @curryja you would need 30 from mainstream. – Victor Venema

AAAS: What we know

by Judith Curry [W]e present key messages for every American about climate change. – AAAS

State of the blog discussion thread

by Judith Curry After almost four years of blogging at Climate Etc., its time for some reflection

Sensitivity about sensitivity

by Judith Curry . . . the IPCC’s sensitivity estimate cannot readily be reconciled with forcing estimates and observational data. – James Annan

What climate sensitivity says about the IPCC assessment process

by Rud Istvan If climate sensitivity is high, then modest GHG increases cause significant warming. If it is low, then significant GHG increases will not. Analysis of the IPCC assessment of sensitivity provides another window into the ‘government-climate research’ complex … Continue reading

WHT on Schmittner et al. on climate sensitivity

by WebHubTelescope . Schmittner et al have written a paper titled “Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum” (Science Nov 24. 2011).

Perils of apocalyptic thinking

by Judith Curry The last time apocalyptic anxiety spilled into the mainstream to the extent that it altered the course of history — during the Reformation — it relied on a revolutionary new communications technology: the printing press. In a … Continue reading

The case(?) for climate change alarmism

by Judith Curry “Rather than justifying a lack of response to climate change, the emphasis on uncertainty enlarges the risk and reinforces the responsibility for pursuing successful long-term mitigation policy,” according to a 2010 analysis by researchers at Sandia National … Continue reading

Uncertainty, risk, and (in)action

by Judith Curry “So when you take uncertainty into account, it actually leads to the decision that we should take action more quickly.” I first spotted the statement in the Discover Magazine interview with myself and Michael Mann .  I thought … Continue reading

AGU Fall Meeting: Part II

by Judith Curry I’ve spent the last several days at the AGU meeting in San Francisco.  With 19,200 participants, there is an overwhelming amount things going on all that the same time.   Here are some highlights of the meeting … Continue reading

Decision making under climate uncertainty: Part I

by Judith Curry Based upon the precautionary principle, the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established a qualitative climate goal for the long term: stabilization of the concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. The view of climate change … Continue reading

Probabilistic(?) estimates of climate sensitivity

by Judith Curry James Annan (with Hargreaves) has a new paper out, entitled “On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity.”  Here is the abstract: