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Search Results for: fat tails
Decision theory and the doom scenario of climate catastrophe
by Lucas Bergkamp Can decision theory help a rational person decide whether to believe in climate catastrophe?
Posted in Policy
How ‘extreme’ can it get?
by Judith Curry When might we see Category 6 hurricanes? 60C surface temperatures?
Posted in Hurricanes
Tall tales and fat tails
by Judith Curry The economic value of climate mitigation depends sensitively on the slim possibility of extreme warming.
Posted in Economics, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed
by Judith Curry I’ve just returned from China, the first thing I did in the U.S. airport on my layover back to Atlanta was to check twitter.
Posted in Policy, Sensitivity & feedbacks
The Curry factor: 30 to 1
by Judith Curry For balance, for every @curryja you would need 30 from mainstream. – Victor Venema
AAAS: What we know
by Judith Curry [W]e present key messages for every American about climate change. – AAAS
Posted in Uncategorized
State of the blog discussion thread
by Judith Curry After almost four years of blogging at Climate Etc., its time for some reflection
Posted in Sociology of science
Sensitivity about sensitivity
by Judith Curry . . . the IPCC’s sensitivity estimate cannot readily be reconciled with forcing estimates and observational data. – James Annan
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
What climate sensitivity says about the IPCC assessment process
by Rud Istvan If climate sensitivity is high, then modest GHG increases cause significant warming. If it is low, then significant GHG increases will not. Analysis of the IPCC assessment of sensitivity provides another window into the ‘government-climate research’ complex … Continue reading
Posted in Attribution, Consensus
WHT on Schmittner et al. on climate sensitivity
by WebHubTelescope . Schmittner et al have written a paper titled “Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum” (Science Nov 24. 2011).
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Perils of apocalyptic thinking
by Judith Curry The last time apocalyptic anxiety spilled into the mainstream to the extent that it altered the course of history — during the Reformation — it relied on a revolutionary new communications technology: the printing press. In a … Continue reading
Posted in Attribution, Climate change impacts, Communication
The case(?) for climate change alarmism
by Judith Curry “Rather than justifying a lack of response to climate change, the emphasis on uncertainty enlarges the risk and reinforces the responsibility for pursuing successful long-term mitigation policy,” according to a 2010 analysis by researchers at Sandia National … Continue reading
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
Uncertainty, risk, and (in)action
by Judith Curry “So when you take uncertainty into account, it actually leads to the decision that we should take action more quickly.” I first spotted the statement in the Discover Magazine interview with myself and Michael Mann . I thought … Continue reading
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
AGU Fall Meeting: Part II
by Judith Curry I’ve spent the last several days at the AGU meeting in San Francisco. With 19,200 participants, there is an overwhelming amount things going on all that the same time. Here are some highlights of the meeting … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Decision making under climate uncertainty: Part I
by Judith Curry Based upon the precautionary principle, the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established a qualitative climate goal for the long term: stabilization of the concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. The view of climate change … Continue reading
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
Probabilistic(?) estimates of climate sensitivity
by Judith Curry James Annan (with Hargreaves) has a new paper out, entitled “On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity.” Here is the abstract:
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncertainty
