Search Results for: decision making uncertainty

Decision making under uncertainty – maximize expected social welfare

by  -1=e^i pi Expected social welfare maximization is where you try to obtain the set of parameters (such as climate change policies) that will maximize the expected value of a social welfare function.

What’s the worst case? A possibilistic approach

by Judith Curry Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications and the media plausible? Are some of these outcomes impossible? On the other hand, are there unexplored worst-case scenarios that we have … Continue reading

National Climate Assessment: A crisis of epistemic overconfidence

by Judith Curry “You can say I don’t believe in gravity. But if you step off the cliff you are going down. So we can say I don’t believe climate is changing, but it is based on science.” – Katherine … Continue reading

Climate uncertainty & risk

by Judith Curry I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week

Climate uncertainty monster: What’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye the past 4(!) weeks.

Legacy of Climategate – 10 years later

by Judith Curry My reflections on Climategate 10 years later, and also reflections on my reflections of 5 years ago.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Politics of climate expertise

by Judith Curry “Concerning the inability of expert knowledge to resolve environmental controversy and the pressing need for a pragmatic reframing of policy problems to allow for solutions based on bipartisan values.”

Truth(?) in testimony and convincing policy makers

by Judith Curry Some reflections, stimulated by yesterday’s Congressional Hearing, on the different strategies of presenting Congressional testimony.

Why I don’t ‘believe’ in ‘science’

by Judith Curry ” ‘I believe in science’ is an homage given to science by people who generally don’t understand much about it. Science is used here not to describe specific methods or theories, but to provide a badge of … Continue reading

A philospher’s reflections on AGW denial

by Dr. Paul Viminitz Of the things I care most about, AGW is near the bottom. But because, as George W. Bush put it, either you’re with us or you’re against them, I think I’d rather be interestingly wrong than … Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part VI. Projections for the 21st century

by Judith Curry The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.

Uncertainty about the Climate Uncertainty Monster

by Judith Curry The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.

The Uncertainty Monster: Lessons From Non-Orthodox Economics

by Vincent Randall A perspective on economists’ grappling with the ‘uncertainty monster.’

Four questions on climate change

by Garth Paltridge An essay on the state of climate change science.

JC’s (un)motivated reasoning

by Judith Curry “I think open explorations of the ideological assumptions scientists bring into policy debates are not only welcome but often necessary for having productive conversations.” – Aaron Huertas

Long-range predictability of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity

by Jim Johnstone and Judith Curry Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) has identified new early precursors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity that involve systematic, repeating interactions among ENSO, stratospheric circulations and regional North Atlantic processes.

Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C

by Nic Lewis A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights … Continue reading

Framing the challenge for the climate red team

by Judith Curry There is an opportunity to steer the proposed red team exercise in a useful direction.  The first step is to frame the problem to be addressed.