Search Results for: Nic Lewis

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity: Part I

by Nic Lewis Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity:  their nature and assessment of validity.

Recent research on aerosol forcing of the CMIP5 models

by Frank Bosse A few days ago a paper (Sato et al) dealing with some aspects of the “Aerosol Cloud Interactions”, (ACI, also called “aerosol indirect effects”) was released. It bolsters the conclusions of earlier papers: the effective radiative forcing … Continue reading

Marvel et al.’s new paper on estimating climate sensitivity from observations

by Nic Lewis Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations’.[1]

Reply to Patrick Brown’s response to comments on his Nature article

by Nic Lewis My reply to Patrick Brown’s response to my my comments on his Nature article.

Greater future global warming (still) predicted from Earth’s recent energy budget

by Patrick Brown A response to Nic Lewis’ post A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought.

Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought

by Nic Lewis A critique of a recent paper by Brown and Caldeira published in Nature that predicted greater than expected global warming.

Does a new paper really reconcile instrumental and model-based climate sensitivity estimates?

by Nic Lewis A new paper in Science Advances by Cristian Proistosescu and Peter Huybers (hereafter PH17) claims that accounting for the decline in feedback strength over time that occurs in most CMIP5 coupled global climate models (GCMs), brings observationally-based … Continue reading

How inconstant are climate feedbacks – and does it matter?

by Nic Lewis Kyle Armour has a new paper out in Nature Climate Change: “Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks”.

Discussion thread: reactions to House Hearing

by Judith Curry Climate Feedback has interviewed a number of scientists regarding the recent House Hearing on climate science.

Rethinking the Social Cost of Carbon

by Judith Curry The Social Cost of Carbon is emerging as a major source of contention in the Trump Administration.

Year in review – Climate Etc.’s greatest ‘hits’

by Judith Curry 2016 was ‘extremely likely’ to have been a memorable year.

Prospects for a Prolonged Slowdown in Global Warming in the Early 21st Century

by Nic Lewis [W]e estimate that the warming slowdown (< 0.1 K/decade trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11%, and 6%, respectively. – Knutson et al.

Assessing the causes of early industrial-era warming

by Nic Lewis Was early onset industrial-era warming anthropogenic, as Abram et al. claim?

Abnormal climate response of the DICE IAM – a trillion dollar error?

by Nic Lewis Last week, a U.S. federal court upheld the approach that the government uses to calculate the social cost of carbon when it issues regulations [link].  The models appear to have seriously overestimated the social cost of carbon.

Are energy budget climate sensitivity values biased low?

by Nic Lewis In a recently published paper (REA16),[i] Mark Richardson et al. claim that recent observation-based energy budget estimates of the Earth’s transient climate response (TCR) are biased substantially low, with the true value some 24% higher.

Towards reconciling climate sensitivity estimates from climate models and observatiions

by Judith Curry A new paper purports to have resolved the discrepancy between climate response estimates from global climate models versus energy budget models.

Rise in CO2 has greened planet Earth

by Judith Curry We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAI (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple … Continue reading

Updated climate sensitivity estimates

by Nic Lewis An update to the calculations in Lewis and Curry (2014).

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye the past few weeks.

Walking the climate talk

by Judith Curry Their [climate scientists] actions may have limited discernible influence in terms of ‘bending the curve’ on emissions, but their efforts to ‘walk the talk’ have tremendous symbolic value – Max Boykoff

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Violating the norms and ethos of science

by Judith Curry Don’t let transparency damage science.  – Stephan Lewandowsky & Dorothy Bishop

On the likelihood of recent record warmth

by Judith Curry [O]ur results suggest that the recent record temperature years are are roughly 600 to 130,000 times more likely to have occurred under conditions of anthropogenic than in its absence.  – Mann et al.

Huge efficacy of land use forcing in one GISS-E2-R simulation: is an ocean model error involved?

by Nic Lewis In a recent article here, which summarised a longer piece at ClimateAudit, I discussed the December 2015 Marvel et al.[1] paper, which contends that estimates of the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived … Continue reading

On the status of scientists’ emails

by Judith Curry The issue of scientists’ emails is heating up.