Category Archives: Prediction

Anticipating the Climate Black Swan

by Judith Curry

I just received the reviews on the manuscript I submitted to special issue of the journal Climatic Change, entitled “Reasoning About Climate Uncertainty.”  Overall, the review was pretty mild.  One comment from the editor was about my paragraph that mentioned “black swans.”

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A prediction market for climate outcomes

by Judith Curry

I am a strong believer that academic freedom is essential for scientific progress, and such freedom includes the right to be “wrong.”  In fact, scientists can often learn much from failed experiments and failed predictions.  However, for regulatory science and science for policy, should there be some premium on (and some reward for) actually being “right”?  How can we know what is “right” in the short term? Shi-Ling Hsu has a provocative new essay that advocates an entirely different path for evaluating climate science that draws upon an institution that is truly independent: markets.
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Dempster on climate prediction

by Judith Curry

I spotted this presentation by Arthur Dempster, Harvard statistician, in the Series on Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to Climate Modeling hosted by the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences.

Dempster is widely known as the co-originator of Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory (see the Wikipedia for an overview).  Elements of evidence theory have been discussed on several previous threads (see Italian Flag, reasoning about floods).

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Foxes, Hedgehogs and Prediction

by Judith Curry

Robert Ellison sent me a link to a review of a book entitled “Future Babble:  Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe Them“, by Dan Gardner, which describes the research of UC Berkeley Professor Philip Tetlock.

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Chaos, ergodicity, and attractors

by Tomas Milanovic

This post has been triggered by the following comment from Eli Rabbett in the spatio-temporal chaos thread :

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Winter Weather

by Judith Curry

In Atlanta right now, we have about 2″ of snow, overlain by freezing rain, a classical “winter mix.”  The whole city is pretty much closed down (including Georgia Tech).  This is a fairly wimpy storm relative to what I used to encounter in Boulder or Chicago, but dealing with weather is relative to what you have adapted to.  Madhav Khandekar from India posts at Pielke Sr.:

For last two weeks or about most of north and central India are witnessing cold wintry weather; some places in Kashmir and the Himalayan foothills have low temperatures at -5C to -20C! This is cold for India, since most houses are not insulated, not heated (except some small room heaters in north India) . . .

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Scenarios: 2010-2040. Part III: Climate Shifts

by Judith Curry

Interpretation of statistical or dynamical predictions of future climate change needs to appropriately interpret the modes of natural internal climate variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO).  This interpretation is needed in the context of forced climate change (e.g. solar, greenhouse gases).

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