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Search Results for: verification validation
Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?
by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.
Posted in Oceans, Uncertainty
Climate modelers open up their black boxes to scrutiny
by Judith Curry Paul Voosen has written a remarkable article in Science about climate model tuning.
Posted in climate models
The art and science of climate model tuning
by Judith Curry We survey the rationale and diversity of approaches for tuning, a fundamental aspect of climate modeling which should be more systematically documented and taken into account in multi-model analysis. – Hourdin et al.
Posted in climate models, Uncertainty
Climate models for lawyers
by Judith Curry I have been asked to write an Expert Report on climate models. ***SEE UPDATE
Posted in climate models
Global climate models and the laws of physics
by Dan Hughes We frequently see the simple statement, “The Laws of Physics”, invoked as the canonical summary of the status of the theoretical basis of GCMs.
Posted in climate models
Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change
by Judith Curry When it comes to climate change, the procedure by which experts assess the accuracy of models projecting potentially ruinous outcomes for the planet and society is surprisingly informal. – Michael Oppenheimer
Posted in Uncertainty
Assessing atmospheric temperature data sets for climate studies
By Judith Curry It is therefore suggested to use either the more robust tropospheric temperature or ocean surface temperature in studies of climate sensitivity. – Cederlof, Bengtsson, Hodges
Posted in Data and observations
UK-US Workshop Part IV: Limits of climate models for adaptation decision making
by Judith Curry This post discusses Workshop presentations on the utility of climate models for regional adaptation decisions.
Posted in Adaptation, climate models
What scientific ideas are ready for retirement?
by Judith Curry So, what scientific idea do YOU think is ready for retirement?
Posted in Scientific method
Verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification in scientific computing
by Judith Curry I think I am gaining some insight into the debate between scientists versus engineers regarding climate model verification and validation.
Posted in climate models, Uncertainty
Assessing climate model software quality
by Anonymous [O]ur notion of software quality with respect to climate models is theoretically and conceptually vague. It is not clear to us what differentiates high from low quality software; nor is it clear which aspects of the models or … Continue reading
Posted in climate models
What can we learn from climate models? Part II
by Judith Curry In my original essay on this topic October 2010, my short answer to this question was “I’m not sure.” My current thinking on this topic reframes the question in the context of fitness for purpose of climate … Continue reading
Posted in climate models
Academic versus professional perspectives
by Judith Curry In pondering the challenges of climate change (both science and policy), it seems that academics have different perspectives from many other people, with a discriminator being professional decision making experience.
Posted in Sociology of science
National Strategy for Advancing Climate Models
by Judith Curry Overall, climate modeling has made enormous progress in the past several decades, but meeting the information needs of users will require further advances in the coming decades. – NRC
Posted in climate models
Climate model verification and validation: Part II
I’m starting a new thread for this topic, since interest in the previous thread has re-generated owing to this AGU abstract by Steve Easterbrook, entitled Do Over or Make Do? Climate Models as a Software Development Challenge.
Posted in climate models
Climate model verification and validation
by Judith Curry On the thread building confidence in climate models , a small amount of text was devoted to verification and validation (V&V). In raising the level of the game, I included the following bullet: • Fully documented verification … Continue reading
Posted in climate models
UQ
by Judith Curry The new International Journal of Uncertainty Quantification has some very interesting papers. Lets take a look at a paper entitled ‘Error and Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis in Mechanics Computational Models.’
Posted in climate models, Uncertainty
Philosophical reflections on climate model projections
by Judith Curry Should probabilistic qualities be assigned to climate model projections? Are the approaches used by the IPCC for assessing climate model projection quality – confidence building, subjective Bayesian, and likelihood – appropriate for climate models? What are some … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, Scientific method
Climate models as ink blots
by Judith Curry From Roger Pielke Jr.: A fundamental problem with climate science in the public realm, as conventionally practiced by the IPCC, is the essential ink blot nature of its presentation. By “ink blot” I mean that there is … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, Prediction
New report on climate change and security
by Judith Curry Mother Jones has an article entitled “CIA’s Weather Underground.” Its closing sentence: In this political climate, it’s no wonder the CIA declined to discuss its global-warming research for this article. For the time being, the climate spooks … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change impacts, Policy
Questions on research integrity and scientific responsibility: Part II
by Judith Curry Here is the content of my presentation to the UN InterAcademy Council Project on Research Integrity and Scientific Responsibility.
Posted in Ethics
Should we assess climate model predictions in light of severe tests?
by Judith Curry This question is posed and addressed in a recent article by Joel Katzav in EOS.
Posted in climate models
Separating natural and anthropogenically-forced decadal climate variability
by Judith Curry The issue of separating natural from anthropogenically forced variability, particularly in context of the attribution of 20th century climate change, has been a topic of several previous threads at Climate Etc. The issue of natural vs anthropogenically … Continue reading
Posted in Attribution, climate models
NASA Earth Science Advisory Subcommittee
by Judith Curry This week I am attending a meeting of the Earth Science Subcommittee of the NASA Advisory Council. As described in the Public Notice for the meeting, the topic of this meeting is evaluation of NASA’s Earth Science … Continue reading
Posted in climate models
Stephen Schneider and the “Double Ethical Bind” of Climate Change Communication
By Judith Curry On the first anniversary of Steve Schneider’s untimely death, it is worth reflecting on his contributions at the intersection of climate science, policy, politics and media in the public communication of climate change. Schneider’s views on this … Continue reading
Posted in Communication