Search Results for: validation

Osman et al. 2021: a flawed Nature paleoclimate paper?

By Nic Lewis This article concerns the paper “Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum” by Matthew Osman et al.[2]  (hereafter Osman 2021) published by Nature in November 2021.

Dissipation, continuum mechanics, mixtures and glaciers

by Dan Hughes A brief continuation of previous discussions about calculation of viscous heat dissipation in the flow of liquids having linear stress/rate-of-strain constitutive description.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye the past 7(!) weeks.

The IPCC’s attribution methodology is fundamentally flawed

by Ross McKitrick One day after the IPCC released the AR6 I published a paper in Climate Dynamics showing that their “Optimal Fingerprinting” methodology on which they have long relied for attributing climate change to greenhouse gases is seriously flawed … Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Greater future global warming (still) predicted from Earth’s recent energy budget

by Patrick Brown A response to Nic Lewis’ post A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

What’s the worst case? A possibilistic approach

by Judith Curry Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications and the media plausible? Are some of these outcomes impossible? On the other hand, are there unexplored worst-case scenarios that we have … Continue reading

Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought

by Nic Lewis A critique of a recent paper by Brown and Caldeira published in Nature that predicted greater than expected global warming.

Reply to Patrick Brown’s response to comments on his Nature article

by Nic Lewis My reply to Patrick Brown’s response to my my comments on his Nature article.

Climate modelers open up their black boxes to scrutiny

by Judith Curry Paul Voosen has written a remarkable article in Science about climate model tuning.

Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.

Climate uncertainty & risk

by Judith Curry I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.

The politics of knowledge

by Judith Curry One needs to ask good questions about whose claims to trust and why. – Sheila Jasanoff

Uncertainties in sea surface temperatures

by Judith Curry Two new papers have focused on the quality, uncertainties and  interpretation of global sea surface temperature data.

Estimating the cost to America of damage from climate change in the 21st century

  by Larry Kummer, originally posted at the Fabius Maximus website. Another peer-reviewed paper predicting disaster from climate change by misrepresenting and exaggerating the science. We can still learn much from it.

Manufacturing consensus: the early history of the IPCC

by Judith Curry Short summary: scientists sought political relevance and allowed policy makers to put a big thumb on the scale of the scientific assessment of the attribution of climate change.

The art and science of climate model tuning

by Judith Curry We survey the rationale and diversity of approaches for tuning, a fundamental aspect of climate modeling which should be more systematically documented and taken into account in multi-model analysis. – Hourdin et al.

Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change

by Judith Curry When it comes to climate change, the procedure by which experts assess the accuracy of models projecting potentially ruinous outcomes for the planet and society is surprisingly informal. – Michael Oppenheimer

Warming patterns are unlikely to explain low historical estimates of climate sensitivity

By Nic Lewis A critique of of a new paper by Andrews  et al., Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week

Global climate models and the laws of physics

by Dan Hughes We frequently see the simple statement, “The Laws of Physics”, invoked as the canonical summary of the status of the theoretical basis of GCMs.

Insights from Karl Popper: how to open the deadlocked climate debate

by Larry Kummer, from the Fabius Maximus website. Many factors have frozen the public policy debate on climate change, but none more important than the disinterest of both sides in tests that might provide better evidence — and perhaps restart … Continue reading

Assessing atmospheric temperature data sets for climate studies

By Judith Curry It is therefore suggested to use either the more robust tropospheric temperature or ocean surface temperature in studies of climate sensitivity. – Cederlof, Bengtsson, Hodges