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Search Results for: uncertainty monster
Climate uncertainty monster: What’s the worst case?
by Judith Curry On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein.
Posted in Scientific method
Uncertainty about the Climate Uncertainty Monster
by Judith Curry The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.
Posted in Uncertainty
The Uncertainty Monster: Lessons From Non-Orthodox Economics
by Vincent Randall A perspective on economists’ grappling with the ‘uncertainty monster.’
Posted in Economics, Uncertainty
The lure of incredible certitude
by Judith Curry “If you want people to believe what you *do* know, you need to be up front about what you *don’t* know.”- Charles Manski
Posted in Uncertainty
Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?
by Judith Curry My new manuscript is now available.
Posted in Uncertainty
Climate scientists’ motivated reasoning
by Judith Curry Insights into the motivated reasoning of climate scientists, including my own efforts to sort out my own biases and motivated reasoning following publication of the Webster et al. (2005) paper
Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science
Climate uncertainty & risk
by Judith Curry I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.
Posted in climate models, Policy, Uncertainty
Climate modelers open up their black boxes to scrutiny
by Judith Curry Paul Voosen has written a remarkable article in Science about climate model tuning.
Posted in climate models
Stalking the uncertainty monster
by Judith Curry Its time to check in with the Climate Uncertainty Monster.
Posted in Uncertainty
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Week in review
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Week in review
The art and science of climate model tuning
by Judith Curry We survey the rationale and diversity of approaches for tuning, a fundamental aspect of climate modeling which should be more systematically documented and taken into account in multi-model analysis. – Hourdin et al.
Posted in climate models, Uncertainty
JC in transition
by Judith Curry Effective January 1, I have resigned my tenured faculty position at Georgia Tech.
Posted in Sociology of science
The Exxon Climate Papers
by Andy May New York Attorney General Eric T. Schneiderman has accused ExxonMobil of lying to the public and investors about the risks of climate change according to the NY Times and has launched an investigation and issued a subpoena demanding … Continue reading
Lukewarming
by Judith Curry Two new books on lukewarming have recently been published.
Posted in Attribution, Communication, Policy
Bjorn Stevens in the cross-fire
by Judith Curry Bjorn Stevens has published two interesting and important papers in the last few weeks, which have placed him squarely in the cross-fire of both the scientific and public debates on climate change.
Posted in Communication, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations
by Judith Curry How to gain clarity when making decisions in uncertain and complex situations.
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
‘Most’ versus ‘more than half’ versus ‘> 50%’
by Judith Curry Seeking once again to clarify the problems in communicating the IPCC climate change attribution statements.
Posted in Attribution, Communication, IPCC
The adversarial method versus Feynman integrity
by Judith Curry If you think about the costs I’ll pay for raising these concerns, including the cost of damaged relationships with people that I like, I think you will conclude that a personal commitment to science is the only … Continue reading
Posted in Ethics, Scientific method
Ethics of climate expertise
by Judith Curry If deference to the authoritative opinions of experts is essential to our rationality and knowledge, and if that deference unavoidably rests on trust, not only in the competence, but also in the epistemic and ethical characters of our experts–then it … Continue reading
Questioning the robustness of the climate modeling paradigm
by Judith Curry Are climate models the best tools? A recent Ph.D. thesis from The Netherlands provides strong arguments for ‘no’.
Posted in climate models
Worst case scenario versus fat tail
by Judith Curry If we omit discussion of tail risk, are we really telling the whole truth?
Posted in Uncertainty
Bankruptcy of the ‘merchants of doubt’ meme
by Judith Curry Naomi Oreskes’ new movie Merchants of Doubt has recently been released. Does this movie provide the seeds for ending the ‘merchants of doubt’ meme?
Posted in Communication, Sociology of science
