Search Results for: uncertainty monster

Climate uncertainty monster: What’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein.

Uncertainty about the Climate Uncertainty Monster

by Judith Curry The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.

The Uncertainty Monster: Lessons From Non-Orthodox Economics

by Vincent Randall A perspective on economists’ grappling with the ‘uncertainty monster.’

The lure of incredible certitude

by Judith Curry “If you want people to believe what you *do* know, you need to be up front about what you *don’t* know.”-  Charles Manski

Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?

by Judith Curry My new manuscript is now available.

Climate modelers open up their black boxes to scrutiny

by Judith Curry Paul Voosen has written a remarkable article in Science about climate model tuning.

Stalking the uncertainty monster

by Judith Curry Its time to check in with the Climate Uncertainty Monster.

Climate scientists’ motivated reasoning

by Judith Curry Insights into the motivated reasoning of climate scientists, including my own efforts to sort out my own biases and motivated reasoning following publication of the Webster et al. (2005) paper

Climate uncertainty & risk

by Judith Curry I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.

Happy Birthday Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry Can you guess which birthday this is?

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

The art and science of climate model tuning

by Judith Curry We survey the rationale and diversity of approaches for tuning, a fundamental aspect of climate modeling which should be more systematically documented and taken into account in multi-model analysis. – Hourdin et al.

2020 Year in Review

by Judith Curry A year ago, there were many things about 2020 that no one anticipated.

JC in transition

by Judith Curry Effective January 1, I have resigned my tenured faculty position at Georgia Tech.

The Exxon Climate Papers

by Andy May New York Attorney General Eric T. Schneiderman has accused ExxonMobil of lying to the public and investors about the risks of climate change according to the NY Times and has launched an investigation and issued a subpoena demanding … Continue reading

Lukewarming

by Judith Curry Two new books on lukewarming have recently been published.

Bjorn Stevens in the cross-fire

by Judith Curry Bjorn Stevens has published two interesting and important papers in the last few weeks, which have placed him squarely in the cross-fire of both the scientific and public debates on climate change.

Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations

by Judith Curry How to gain clarity when making decisions in uncertain and complex situations.

‘Most’ versus ‘more than half’ versus ‘> 50%’

by Judith Curry Seeking once again to clarify the problems in communicating the IPCC climate change attribution statements.

On Trial: Social Cost of Carbon

by Judith Curry The Social Cost of Carbon is on trial in Minnesota.

2014 → 2015

by Judith Curry Before ringing in the New Year, its time to reflect on 2014.

The adversarial method versus Feynman integrity

by Judith Curry If you think about the costs I’ll pay for raising these concerns, including the cost of damaged relationships with people that I like, I think you will conclude that a personal commitment to science is the only … Continue reading

Worst case scenario versus fat tail

by Judith Curry  If we omit discussion of tail risk, are we really telling the whole truth? 

Ethics of climate expertise

by Judith Curry If deference to the authoritative opinions of experts is essential to our rationality and knowledge, and if that deference unavoidably rests on trust, not only in the competence, but also in the epistemic and ethical characters of our experts–then it … Continue reading