Search Results for: uncertainty monster

Uncertainty about the Climate Uncertainty Monster

by Judith Curry The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.

Stalking the uncertainty monster

by Judith Curry Its time to check in with the Climate Uncertainty Monster.

Garth Paltridge held hostage (?) by the uncertainty monster

by Andy Lacis JC note:  this essay responds to Garth Paltridge’s recent post Science held hostage in climate debate. What’s up with Garth? Why the surprisingly out of touch lack of understanding of what it is that makes the global … Continue reading

Keith Seitter on the ‘uncertainty monster’

by Judith Curry Keith Seitter is Executive Director of the American Meteorological Society.

Hegerl et al. react to the Uncertainty Monster paper

by Judith Curry Gabrielle Hegerl, Peter Stott, Susan Solomon, and Francis Zwiers have published a comment to our paper “Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster.”  Webster and Curry respond.  The CRU emails provide some interesting context for this discussion. .

Defending the Uncertainty Monster paper

by Judith Curry I’ve completed a revised draft of my response the to Reply to our Uncertainty Monster paper.

Does the Aliasing Beast Feed the Uncertainty Monster?

by Richard Saumarez Many continuous signals are sampled so that they can be manipulated digitally.  We assume that the train of samples in the time domain gives a true picture of what the underlying signal is doing, but can we … Continue reading

Uncertainty monster visits MIT: Part II

by Judith Curry I’m in San Diego, with a few moments to catch up on the blog and share my impressions of my visit to MIT.

Uncertainty monster visits MIT

by Judith Curry This Thursday, I will be visiting the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences (EAPS) at MIT, giving the Victor Starr Lecture.

Uncertainty Monster paper in press

by Judith Curry My paper “Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster” is in press at the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Taming the Uncertainty Monster

by Judith Curry The concluding section in my draft paper on “Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster” (discussed previously on this thread) is entitled “Taming the uncertainty monster.”

The Uncertainty Monster

by Judith Curry Notions of uncertainty range from everyday usage in common parlance to specific definitions appearing in the philosophical and scientific literature.

Decision making under uncertainty – maximize expected social welfare

by  -1=e^i pi Expected social welfare maximization is where you try to obtain the set of parameters (such as climate change policies) that will maximize the expected value of a social welfare function.

Lewis and Curry: Climate sensitivity uncertainty

by Judith Curry Our new paper on climate sensitivity is now published.

Model structural uncertainty – are GCMs the best tools?

by Judith Curry Rarely are the following questions asked:  Is the approach that we are taking to climate modeling adequate?  Could other model structural forms be more useful for advancing climate science and informing policy?

Taylor and Ravetz on the value of uncertainty

by Judith Curry . . . this “crisp number” mode of thinking has promoted the use of over-simplistic models and masking of uncertainties that can in turn lead to incomplete understanding of problems and bad decisions. – Peter Taylor and … Continue reading

Uncertainty in SST measurements and data sets

by Judith Curry Two new papers that discuss uncertainty in surface temperature measurements.

Inadequate uncertainty analysis in climate change assessments

by Judith Curry Use of state-of-the-art statistical methods could substantially improve the quantification of uncertainty in assessments of climate change.

Stratospheric uncertainty

by Judith Curry The new data call into question our understanding of observed stratospheric temperature trends and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. – Thompson et al.

Psychology of Uncertainty

by Judith Curry When we fail to distinguish between discovering order IN nature and imposing order ON nature, we have lost relationship with the very thing we yearn to know. Whereas once we were students of nature, looking to her for meaning, we now denigrate her … Continue reading

Verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification in scientific computing

by Judith Curry I think I am gaining some insight into the debate between scientists versus engineers regarding climate model verification and validation.

Uncertainty and the IPCC

by Judith Curry Two previous threads (here and here) have presented sections of my draft paper on Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster.  Here is an additional section on Uncertainty and the IPCC.

Uncertainty, risk, and (in)action

by Judith Curry “So when you take uncertainty into account, it actually leads to the decision that we should take action more quickly.” I first spotted the statement in the Discover Magazine interview with myself and Michael Mann .  I thought … Continue reading

Reasoning About Climate Uncertainty – Draft

by Judith Curry Here is a complete (albeit rough) draft of my paper for the special issue in the journal Climatic Change (founding editor Steve Schneider) entitled Framing and Communicating Uncertainty and Confidence Judgments by the IPCC.

Waving the Italian flag. Part I: uncertainty and pedigree

by Judith Curry The Italian flag (IF) is a representation of three-valued logic in which evidence for a proposition is represented as green, evidence against is represented as red, and residual uncertainty is represented as white.  The white area reflects … Continue reading