Search Results for: uncertainties

Coronavirus uncertainty

by Judith Curry My thoughts on coronavirus and deep uncertainty.

Climate adaptation follies. Part II: scenarios of future sea level rise

by Judith Curry How did the state of New Jersey come to adopt sea level rise projections for their adaptation planning that are more than twice as high as the IPCC’s values?

Five rules for evidence communication

by Judith Curry “Avoid unwarranted certainty, neat narratives and partisan presentation; strive to inform, not persuade.”

Climate adaptation sense. Part III: Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways

by Judith Curry Best practices in adapting to sea level rise use a framework suitable for decision making under deep uncertainty.

Uncomfortable knowledge

by Judith Curry On the misuse of science and scientific authority.

How we fool ourselves

by Judith Curry Crowd sourcing examples of fallacious thinking from climate science.

The Primacy of Doubt

by Judith Curry Tim Palmer’s new book has just been published: “The Primacy of Doubt: From Quantum Physics to Climate Change, How the Science of Uncertainty Can Help Us Understand Our Chaotic World” This book is a physics-intellectual feast.  Must … Continue reading

Climate’s uncertainty principle

by Garth Paltridge On the costs and benefits of climate action.

Resplandy et al. Part 5: Final outcome

By Nic Lewis The editors of Nature have retracted the Resplandy et al. paper.

What the pandemic has taught us about science

The scientific method remains the best way to solve many problems, but bias, overconfidence and politics can sometimes lead scientists astray

Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?

by Judith Curry My new manuscript is now available.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks.

Important new paper challenges IPCC’s claims about climate sensitivity

by Nic Lewis Official estimates of future global warming may be overstated.

Solar variations controversy

by Judith Curry “The field of Sun-climate relations . . . in recent years has been corrupted by unwelcome political and financial influence as climate change sceptics have seized upon putative solar effects as an excuse for inaction on anthropogenic … Continue reading

Escape from model land

by Judith Curry “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.” – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith

5 minutes

by Judith Curry How would you explain the complexity and uncertainty surrounding climate change plus how we should respond (particularly with regards to CO2 emissions) in five minutes?

Osman et al. 2021: a flawed Nature paleoclimate paper?

By Nic Lewis This article concerns the paper “Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum” by Matthew Osman et al.[2]  (hereafter Osman 2021) published by Nature in November 2021.

Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050

by Judith Curry A range of scenarios for global mean surface temperature change between 2020 and 2050, derived using a semi-empirical approach. All three modes of natural climate variability – volcanoes, solar and internal variability – are expected to act … Continue reading

Climate scientists & politics: Simpleton versus wicked scientists

by Judith Curry In which wicked scientists are the good guys.

Projecting manmade climate change: scenarios to 2050

by Judith Curry Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate change — more realistic scenarios make for better policy. 

Will California “learn” to avoid Peak Rolling Blackouts?

by Planning Engineer The first week in September of this year California was facing rolling blackouts due to a forecast 20-year high Peak. Residents were asked to cut down electric usage and at risk of rolling blackouts. Is this a … Continue reading

Crossing (or not) the 1.5 and 2.0C thresholds

by Judith Curry “The first rule of climate chess is this.  The board is bigger than we think, and includes more than fossil fuels.”  – Jon Foley

Precision agriculture for South Asia

by Judith Curry An exciting new project for my company, Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) to support smallholder farmers in Pakistan and India.

15 minutes

by Judith Curry In a recent invited talk at the American Chemical Society annual meeting, I attempted to explain the climate debate in 15 minutes.

Challenges of the clean energy transition

by Judith Curry This morning I participated Conference on Energy and Decarbonization – A New Jersey Business Perspective. https://njbia.regfox.com/energy-summit. UPDATE: full recording of the conference [here]