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Search Results for: uncertainties
Coronavirus uncertainty
by Judith Curry My thoughts on coronavirus and deep uncertainty.
Posted in Uncertainty
Climate adaptation follies. Part II: scenarios of future sea level rise
by Judith Curry How did the state of New Jersey come to adopt sea level rise projections for their adaptation planning that are more than twice as high as the IPCC’s values?
Posted in Adaptation, Uncertainty
Five rules for evidence communication
by Judith Curry “Avoid unwarranted certainty, neat narratives and partisan presentation; strive to inform, not persuade.”
Posted in Communication, Uncertainty
Climate adaptation sense. Part III: Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways
by Judith Curry Best practices in adapting to sea level rise use a framework suitable for decision making under deep uncertainty.
Posted in Adaptation, Oceans, Uncertainty
Climate’s uncertainty principle
by Garth Paltridge On the costs and benefits of climate action.
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
Resplandy et al. Part 5: Final outcome
By Nic Lewis The editors of Nature have retracted the Resplandy et al. paper.
Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?
by Judith Curry My new manuscript is now available.
Posted in Uncertainty
Uncomfortable knowledge
by Judith Curry On the misuse of science and scientific authority.
Posted in Policy, Sociology of science, Uncertainty
How we fool ourselves
by Judith Curry Crowd sourcing examples of fallacious thinking from climate science.
Posted in Sociology of science, Uncertainty
Uncertainty in climate projections
by Judith Curry My article Climate Uncertainty and Risk has now been published in the Summer 2018 edition of CLIVAR Variations.
Posted in climate models, Uncertainty
Climate uncertainty & risk
by Judith Curry I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.
Posted in climate models, Policy, Uncertainty
What the pandemic has taught us about science
The scientific method remains the best way to solve many problems, but bias, overconfidence and politics can sometimes lead scientists astray
Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science, Uncertainty
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks.
Posted in Uncategorized, Week in review
The lure of incredible certitude
by Judith Curry “If you want people to believe what you *do* know, you need to be up front about what you *don’t* know.”- Charles Manski
Posted in Uncertainty
Climate uncertainty monster: What’s the worst case?
by Judith Curry On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein.
Posted in Scientific method
5 minutes
by Judith Curry How would you explain the complexity and uncertainty surrounding climate change plus how we should respond (particularly with regards to CO2 emissions) in five minutes?
Posted in Uncategorized
Escape from model land
by Judith Curry “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.” – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith
Posted in climate models, Uncertainty
Solar variations controversy
by Judith Curry “The field of Sun-climate relations . . . in recent years has been corrupted by unwelcome political and financial influence as climate change sceptics have seized upon putative solar effects as an excuse for inaction on anthropogenic … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Resplandy et al. Part 3: Findings regarding statistical issues and the authors’ planned correction
By Nic Lewis Introduction The Resplandy et al. (2018) ocean heat uptake study (henceforth Resplandy18) is based on measured changes in the O2/N2 ratio of air sampled each year, compared to air stored in high pressure tanks originally sampled in … Continue reading
Posted in Data and observations, Oceans, Uncertainty
Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 1
By Nic Lewis A comment on LC18 (recent paper by Lewis and Curry on climate sensitivity) by Cowtan and Jacobs has been published, along with our response.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
National Climate Assessment: A crisis of epistemic overconfidence
by Judith Curry “You can say I don’t believe in gravity. But if you step off the cliff you are going down. So we can say I don’t believe climate is changing, but it is based on science.” – Katherine … Continue reading
Posted in Consensus, Uncertainty
Projecting manmade climate change: scenarios to 2050
by Judith Curry Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate change — more realistic scenarios make for better policy.
Posted in Uncategorized
Osman et al. 2021: a flawed Nature paleoclimate paper?
By Nic Lewis This article concerns the paper “Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum” by Matthew Osman et al.[2] (hereafter Osman 2021) published by Nature in November 2021.
Posted in Uncategorized
Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?
by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.
Posted in Oceans, Uncertainty
Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050
by Judith Curry A range of scenarios for global mean surface temperature change between 2020 and 2050, derived using a semi-empirical approach. All three modes of natural climate variability – volcanoes, solar and internal variability – are expected to act … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks, Solar, Uncertainty
