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Search Results for: uncertain
Climate’s uncertainty principle
by Garth Paltridge On the costs and benefits of climate action.
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
Climate uncertainty monster: What’s the worst case?
by Judith Curry On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein.
Posted in Scientific method
Uncertainty in climate projections
by Judith Curry My article Climate Uncertainty and Risk has now been published in the Summer 2018 edition of CLIVAR Variations.
Posted in climate models, Uncertainty
Climate uncertainty & risk
by Judith Curry I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.
Posted in climate models, Policy, Uncertainty
The Uncertainty Monster: Lessons From Non-Orthodox Economics
by Vincent Randall A perspective on economists’ grappling with the ‘uncertainty monster.’
Posted in Economics, Uncertainty
Uncertainty about the Climate Uncertainty Monster
by Judith Curry The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.
Posted in Uncertainty
Uncertainties in sea surface temperatures
by Judith Curry Two new papers have focused on the quality, uncertainties and interpretation of global sea surface temperature data.
Posted in Data and observations, Oceans
Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change
by Judith Curry When it comes to climate change, the procedure by which experts assess the accuracy of models projecting potentially ruinous outcomes for the planet and society is surprisingly informal. – Michael Oppenheimer
Posted in Uncertainty
Decision making under uncertainty – maximize expected social welfare
by -1=e^i pi Expected social welfare maximization is where you try to obtain the set of parameters (such as climate change policies) that will maximize the expected value of a social welfare function.
Posted in Policy
A perspective on uncertainty and climate science
by Marcia Wyatt This past summer I was asked to give a presentation on science and ethics. The person who asked me was motivated by the Pope’s encyclical, the comments regarding climate change.
Posted in Uncertainty
The uncertainty of climate sensitivity and its implication for the Paris negotiations
by Judith Curry A burning question for the Paris negotiations: Are the INDCs sufficient to prevent 2 degrees of warming?
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Managing uncertainty in predictions of climate change and impacts
by Judith Curry Climatic Change has a new special issue: Managing Uncertainty Predictions of Climate Change and Impacts.
Posted in Uncertainty
Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy (!)
We argue for a redesign of climate change mitigation policies to be ‘anti-fragile’ with respect to scientific uncertainty. – Otto et al.
Posted in Attribution, Policy
Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations
by Judith Curry How to gain clarity when making decisions in uncertain and complex situations.
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
Science, uncertainty and advocacy
by Judith Curry I’m attending an interesting conference in Nottingham: Circling the square: universities, the media, citizens and politics.
Posted in Communication, Policy, Uncertainty
Stalking the uncertainty monster
by Judith Curry Its time to check in with the Climate Uncertainty Monster.
Posted in Uncertainty
Ethics of communicating scientific uncertainty
by Judith Curry Last month I attended a Workshop on The Ethics of Communicating Scientific Uncertainty: Understanding How Scientists, Environmental Lawyers, and Journalists Treat Uncertainty.
Posted in Communication, Ethics
Lewis and Curry: Climate sensitivity uncertainty
by Judith Curry Our new paper on climate sensitivity is now published.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncertainty
IPCC and treatment of uncertainties
by Judith Curry A new review paper on the IPCC and treatment of uncertainties.
Posted in Uncertainty
Model structural uncertainty – are GCMs the best tools?
by Judith Curry Rarely are the following questions asked: Is the approach that we are taking to climate modeling adequate? Could other model structural forms be more useful for advancing climate science and informing policy?
Posted in climate models
World Bank on Understanding Climate Uncertainty
by Judith Curry The impact of climate change looms large as a deep uncertainty with global consequences. – Khalra et al.
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
Ocean heat content uncertainties
by Judith Curry Central to arguments related to the hiatus and the ‘missing heat’ is the assertion that unusual amounts of heat are being stored in the deep ocean, and that this heat will eventually reappear at the surface. Exactly … Continue reading
Posted in Data and observations
The Fundamental Uncertainties of Climate Change
by Garth Paltridge There is more than enough uncertainty about the forecasting of climate to allow normal human beings to be at least reasonably hopeful that global warming might not be nearly as bad as is currently touted. Climate scientists, … Continue reading
Posted in Uncertainty
Scientific uncertainties and moral dilemmas
by Judith Curry [P]utting adaptation and mitigation issues into the broader context of competing needs and limited resources raises moral problems that cannot be easily dismissed. – Hillerbrand and Ghil
Taylor and Ravetz on the value of uncertainty
by Judith Curry . . . this “crisp number” mode of thinking has promoted the use of over-simplistic models and masking of uncertainties that can in turn lead to incomplete understanding of problems and bad decisions. – Peter Taylor and … Continue reading
Posted in Uncertainty
