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Search Results for: red team
Framing the challenge for the climate red team
by Judith Curry There is an opportunity to steer the proposed red team exercise in a useful direction. The first step is to frame the problem to be addressed.
Posted in Policy, Sociology of science
What is red teaming?
by Judith Curry Last week, Scott Pruitt, EPA Administrator, stated he intended to form a ‘red team’ to debate climate science. What exactly is ‘red teaming’, and how can this be implemented in a way that is useful for climate … Continue reading
Posted in Policy, Sociology of science
A ‘Red Team’ Exercise Would Strengthen Climate Science
by Judith Curry Put the ‘consensus’ to a test, and improve public understanding, though an open and adversarial process. – Steve Koonin
Posted in Policy, Scientific method
Why the CO2 reduction pathways are too stringent
by Jacques Hagoort Why the IPCC carbon budgets in SR1.5 are over conservative, and the CO2 reduction pathways are too stringent.
Posted in Policy
Long-range predictability of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity
by Jim Johnstone and Judith Curry Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) has identified new early precursors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity that involve systematic, repeating interactions among ENSO, stratospheric circulations and regional North Atlantic processes.
Posted in Hurricanes
Can Coal-Fired Plants be Re-Powered Today with Stored Energy from Wind and Solar?
by Davis Swan There is a consensus in many countries that burning coal to generate electricity is something that needs to be phased out as quickly as possible. The Clean Power Plan in the U.S. has that as one of … Continue reading
Posted in Energy
Structured expert judgment
by Judith Curry Any attempt to impose agreement will “promote confusion between consensus and certainty”. The goal should be to quantify uncertainty, not to remove it from the decision process. – Willy Aspinall
Posted in Consensus, Uncertainty
Predictions of climate change impacts on fisheries can be a mirage
by Judith Curry A novel method for causal inference has been motivated by . . . sardines.
Posted in Causation, Climate change impacts, Policy
U.S. weather prediction: falling behind
by Judith Curry “It’s a national embarrassment. It has resulted in large unnecessary costs for the U.S. economy and needless endangerment of our citizens. And it shouldn’t be occurring. What am I talking about? The third rate status of numerical … Continue reading
Posted in climate models
Climate science’s ‘masking bias’ problem
by Judith Curry How valid conclusions often lay hidden within research reports, masked by plausible but unjustified conclusions reached in those reports. And how the IPCC institutionalizes such masking errors in climate science.
Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science, Uncertainty
National Climate Assessment: A crisis of epistemic overconfidence
by Judith Curry “You can say I don’t believe in gravity. But if you step off the cliff you are going down. So we can say I don’t believe climate is changing, but it is based on science.” – Katherine … Continue reading
Posted in Consensus, Uncertainty
Admitting mistakes in a ‘hostile environment’
by Judith Curry Reflections on Nic Lewis’ audit of the Resplandy et al. paper.
Posted in Sociology of science
What are the main sources of heat that account for the incremental rise in temperature on Earth?
by Judith Curry Suggestions for the climate ‘red team’ response.
Posted in Attribution
A veneer of certainty stoking climate alarm
by Judith Curry In private, climate scientists are much less certain than they tell the public. – Rupert Darwall
Posted in Policy, Sociology of science, Uncertainty
Steve Koonin: A Deceptive New Report on Climate
by Judith Curry Red-teaming the the U.S. government’s Climate Science Special Report on the topic of sea level rise.
Posted in Oceans, Sociology of science
Reviewing the Climate Science Special Report
by Judith Curry Calling on CE Denizens to review the Climate Science Special Report: nominate an official reviewer, or participate in the CE Crowdsourced Review.
Posted in Scientific method, Sociology of science
Alarm about alarmism
by Judith Curry The climate change debate has entered what we might call the “Campfire Phase”, in which the goal is to tell the scariest story. – Oren Cass (twitter)
Posted in Communication, Sociology of science
Consensus enforcers versus the Trump administration
by Judith Curry Tough days on The Hill for the enforcers of the climate consensus.
National Climate Assessment and the Trump administration
The National Climate Assessment must be redirected or terminated by Patrick J. Michaels Periodic National Assessments of the effects of climate change on the U.S. are mandated by the 1990 Global Change Research Act. The next Assessment Report is scheduled to … Continue reading
Posted in Policy, Sociology of science
Discussion thread: reactions to House Hearing
by Judith Curry Climate Feedback has interviewed a number of scientists regarding the recent House Hearing on climate science.
Posted in Scientific method
‘Deniers,’ lies and politics
by Judith Curry House Science Committee Hearing: where the so-called ‘deniers’ behave like scientists and the defender of the establishment consensus . . . lies.
Posted in Sociology of science
Discussion thread – improving the interface between climate science and policy
by Judith Curry I’m looking for ideas and discussion on ways to improve what I regard to be a broken interface between climate science and policy.
Posted in Policy
Assessments, meta-analyses, discussion and peer review
by Judith Curry There is an unfortunate knowledge monopoly in climate science and policy – the IPCC and UNFCCC. As a result there is insufficient intellectual and political diversity in assessments about climate change. To break this monopoly, we need … Continue reading
Posted in Communication, Sociology of science
We are all confident idiots
by Judith Curry Stumbling through all our cognitive clutter just to recognize a true “I don’t know” may not constitute failure as much as it does an enviable success, a crucial signpost that shows us we are traveling in the … Continue reading
Posted in Sociology of science, Uncertainty
Institutionalizing Dissent
by Judith Curry As many have argued, rigorous scientific research requires dissent, or what Robert Merton called “organized skepticism”. Yet it is increasingly the case that some forms of dissent in pharmaceutical research are either absent or unheard. – Justin … Continue reading
Posted in Skeptics
