Search Results for: rcp

Reassessing the RCPs

by Kevin Murphy A response to: “Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?”. This post demonstrates that RCP8.5 is so highly improbable that it should be dismissed from consideration, and thereby draws into question the validity of RCP8.5-based assertions such as those … Continue reading

Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?

by Judith Curry In considering ‘worst case’ climate change impacts, we first need to assess the realistic worst case for global carbon emissions.

A closer look at scenario RCP8.5

by Larry Kummer The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris climate was preceded by a surge of studies and articles warning of a dismal future if we do not take strong policy action. One scenario in the IPCC’s … Continue reading

Greening the planet and slouching towards Paris?

by Patrick J. Michaels A new paper finds higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations.  The paper predicts that the Earth is going to gain nearly three times as much green matter as was predicted by … Continue reading

Week in review – climate science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week — climate science & policy

Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050

by Judith Curry A range of scenarios for global mean surface temperature change between 2020 and 2050, derived using a semi-empirical approach. All three modes of natural climate variability – volcanoes, solar and internal variability – are expected to act … Continue reading

Inconsistency between historical and future CMIP5 simulations

by Kenneth Fritsch Identification of significant differences between the historical and future CMIP5 simulations for intrinsic climate sensitivities.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week

Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry (2018)

by Ross McKitrick Challenging the claim that a large set of climate model runs published since 1970’s are consistent with observations for the right reasons.

Two more degrees by 2100!

by Vaughan Pratt An alternative perspective on 3 degrees C?

3 degrees C?

by Judith Curry Is 3 C warming over the 21st century now the ‘best estimate’?  A reframing of how we think about climate change over the 21st century, and my arguments for 1 C.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week

Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 2

By Nic Lewis In an earlier article here I discussed a Comment on Lewis and Curry 2018 (LC18) by Kevin Cowtan and Peter Jacobs (CJ20), and a Reply from myself and Judith Curry recently published by Journal of Climate (copy … Continue reading

The toxic rhetoric of climate change

by Judith Curry “I genuinely have the fear that climate change is going to kill me and all my family, I’m not even kidding it’s  all I have thought about for the last 9 months every second of the day. … Continue reading

Climate ‘limits’ and timelines

by Judith Curry Some thoughts in response to a query from a reporter.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?

by Judith Curry My new manuscript is now available.

Rebelling against the Extinction Rebellion

by Larry Kummer The Extinction Rebellion and the Green New Deal arouse fears of extinction for other species, and humanity. Only the complicit silence of climate scientists makes this possible. Compare the alarmists’ claims with what scientists said in the … Continue reading

What’s the worst case? Emissions/concentration scenarios

by Judith Curry Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible?

What’s the worst case? A possibilistic approach

by Judith Curry Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications and the media plausible? Are some of these outcomes impossible? On the other hand, are there unexplored worst-case scenarios that we have … Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Hurricanes & climate change: 21st century projections

by Judith Curry Final installment in my series on hurricanes and climate change.

Critique of the new Santer et al. (2019) paper

by Ross McKitrick Ben Santer et al. have a new paper out in Nature Climate Change arguing that with 40 years of satellite data available they can detect the anthropogenic influence in the mid-troposphere at a 5-sigma level of confidence. … Continue reading

Sea level rise whiplash

by Judith Curry Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.

Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?

by Nic Lewis *** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. … Continue reading