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Search Results for: rcp
Is the Antarctic-driven abyssal ocean overturning doomed in 2050?
by Frank Bosse Probably not, in spite of the recent headlines.
Posted in Uncategorized
Projecting manmade climate change: scenarios to 2050
by Judith Curry Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate change — more realistic scenarios make for better policy.
Posted in Uncategorized
Reassessing the RCPs
by Kevin Murphy A response to: “Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?”. This post demonstrates that RCP8.5 is so highly improbable that it should be dismissed from consideration, and thereby draws into question the validity of RCP8.5-based assertions such as those … Continue reading
Posted in Energy
Greening the planet and slouching towards Paris?
by Patrick J. Michaels A new paper finds higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations. The paper predicts that the Earth is going to gain nearly three times as much green matter as was predicted by … Continue reading
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Inconsistency between historical and future CMIP5 simulations
by Kenneth Fritsch Identification of significant differences between the historical and future CMIP5 simulations for intrinsic climate sensitivities.
Posted in climate models
Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS
by Kenneth Fritsch Abstract. An analysis is presented of he disconnection between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Historical and Future periods when considering the relationship of the individual model GMST changes and the climate sensitivity. I have included a simple model … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Assessment of climate change risk to the insurance sector
by Judith Curry The insurance sector is abuzz with a new report from AIR Worldwide on the insurance risk from the impact of climate change on hurricanes. Insurance industry clients of my company, Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN), have requested … Continue reading
Posted in Hurricanes
3 degrees C?
by Judith Curry Is 3 C warming over the 21st century now the ‘best estimate’? A reframing of how we think about climate change over the 21st century, and my arguments for 1 C.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Climate Change, Extreme Weather, and Electric System Reliability
by Judith Curry I recently participated in a Technical Conference sponsored by the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).
Posted in Uncategorized
Two more degrees by 2100!
by Vaughan Pratt An alternative perspective on 3 degrees C?
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Rebelling against the Extinction Rebellion
by Larry Kummer The Extinction Rebellion and the Green New Deal arouse fears of extinction for other species, and humanity. Only the complicit silence of climate scientists makes this possible. Compare the alarmists’ claims with what scientists said in the … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change impacts, Communication
What’s the worst case? Emissions/concentration scenarios
by Judith Curry Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible?
Posted in Prediction
Hurricanes & climate change: 21st century projections
by Judith Curry Final installment in my series on hurricanes and climate change.
Posted in Hurricanes
The Sun-Climate Effect: The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis (V). A role for the sun in climate change
by Javier Vinós & Andy May “Once you start doubting, just like you’re supposed to doubt. You ask me if the science is true and we say ‘No, no, we don’t know what’s true, we’re trying to find out, everything … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions
By Nic Lewis An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections. AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Greater future global warming (still) predicted from Earth’s recent energy budget
by Patrick Brown A response to Nic Lewis’ post A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Sea level rise whiplash
by Judith Curry Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.
Posted in Oceans
Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?
by Nic Lewis *** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC, Oceans
Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part VI. Projections for the 21st century
by Judith Curry The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.
Posted in Oceans
Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C
by Nic Lewis A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC
Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part I – Introduction
by Judith Curry Introduction and context for a new Climate Etc. series on sea level rise.
Posted in Attribution, Climate change impacts, Oceans
Nature Unbound IX – 21st Century Climate Change
by Javier A conservative outlook on 21st century climate change
Posted in Prediction
Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought
by Nic Lewis A critique of a recent paper by Brown and Caldeira published in Nature that predicted greater than expected global warming.
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Sea level rise acceleration (or not). Part V: detection & attribution
by Judith Curry In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of … Continue reading
Posted in Attribution, Oceans
Prospects for a Prolonged Slowdown in Global Warming in the Early 21st Century
by Nic Lewis [W]e estimate that the warming slowdown (< 0.1 K/decade trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11%, and 6%, respectively. – Knutson et al.
Posted in Attribution, climate models
