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Search Results for: rcp
Is the Antarctic-driven abyssal ocean overturning doomed in 2050?
by Frank Bosse Probably not, in spite of the recent headlines.
Posted in Uncategorized
Do CMIP5 models skillfully match actual warming?
by Nic Lewis Why matching of CMIP5 model-simulated to observed warming does not indicate model skill
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged climate feedback, climate sensitivity, models vs observations
Projecting manmade climate change: scenarios to 2050
by Judith Curry Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate change — more realistic scenarios make for better policy.
Posted in Uncategorized
How much warming can we expect in the 21st century?
by Hakon Karlsen A comprehensive explainer of climate sensitivity to CO2
Posted in Uncategorized
Reassessing the RCPs
by Kevin Murphy A response to: “Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?”. This post demonstrates that RCP8.5 is so highly improbable that it should be dismissed from consideration, and thereby draws into question the validity of RCP8.5-based assertions such as those … Continue reading
Posted in Energy
Greening the planet and slouching towards Paris?
by Patrick J. Michaels A new paper finds higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations. The paper predicts that the Earth is going to gain nearly three times as much green matter as was predicted by … Continue reading
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Inconsistency between historical and future CMIP5 simulations
by Kenneth Fritsch Identification of significant differences between the historical and future CMIP5 simulations for intrinsic climate sensitivities.
Posted in climate models
Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS
by Kenneth Fritsch Abstract. An analysis is presented of he disconnection between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Historical and Future periods when considering the relationship of the individual model GMST changes and the climate sensitivity. I have included a simple model … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Held v Montana Climate Lawsuit
by Judith Curry My reflections on the Held v Montana Climate Lawsuit – the inside story, my written expert report and why I didn’t testify at the trial. Don’t believe the PR about this case from Our Children’s Trust, which … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Assessment of climate change risk to the insurance sector
by Judith Curry The insurance sector is abuzz with a new report from AIR Worldwide on the insurance risk from the impact of climate change on hurricanes. Insurance industry clients of my company, Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN), have requested … Continue reading
Posted in Hurricanes
Climate Change, Extreme Weather, and Electric System Reliability
by Judith Curry I recently participated in a Technical Conference sponsored by the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).
Posted in Uncategorized
The Sun-Climate Effect: The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis (V). A role for the sun in climate change
by Javier Vinós & Andy May “Once you start doubting, just like you’re supposed to doubt. You ask me if the science is true and we say ‘No, no, we don’t know what’s true, we’re trying to find out, everything … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
3 degrees C?
by Judith Curry Is 3 C warming over the 21st century now the ‘best estimate’? A reframing of how we think about climate change over the 21st century, and my arguments for 1 C.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Two more degrees by 2100!
by Vaughan Pratt An alternative perspective on 3 degrees C?
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Rebelling against the Extinction Rebellion
by Larry Kummer The Extinction Rebellion and the Green New Deal arouse fears of extinction for other species, and humanity. Only the complicit silence of climate scientists makes this possible. Compare the alarmists’ claims with what scientists said in the … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change impacts, Communication
What’s the worst case? Emissions/concentration scenarios
by Judith Curry Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible?
Posted in Prediction
Hurricanes & climate change: 21st century projections
by Judith Curry Final installment in my series on hurricanes and climate change.
Posted in Hurricanes
Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions
By Nic Lewis An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections. AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Sea level rise whiplash
by Judith Curry Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.
Posted in Oceans
Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?
by Nic Lewis *** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC, Oceans
Greater future global warming (still) predicted from Earth’s recent energy budget
by Patrick Brown A response to Nic Lewis’ post A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part VI. Projections for the 21st century
by Judith Curry The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.
Posted in Oceans
Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C
by Nic Lewis A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC
Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part I – Introduction
by Judith Curry Introduction and context for a new Climate Etc. series on sea level rise.
Posted in Attribution, Climate change impacts, Oceans
Nature Unbound IX – 21st Century Climate Change
by Javier A conservative outlook on 21st century climate change
Posted in Prediction
