Search Results for: rcp

Reassessing the RCPs

by Kevin Murphy A response to: “Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?”. This post demonstrates that RCP8.5 is so highly improbable that it should be dismissed from consideration, and thereby draws into question the validity of RCP8.5-based assertions such as those … Continue reading

Inconsistency between historical and future CMIP5 simulations

by Kenneth Fritsch Identification of significant differences between the historical and future CMIP5 simulations for intrinsic climate sensitivities.

Greening the planet and slouching towards Paris?

by Patrick J. Michaels A new paper finds higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations.  The paper predicts that the Earth is going to gain nearly three times as much green matter as was predicted by … Continue reading

Projecting manmade climate change: scenarios to 2050

by Judith Curry Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate change — more realistic scenarios make for better policy. 

Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS

by Kenneth Fritsch Abstract. An analysis is presented of  he disconnection between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Historical and Future periods when considering the relationship of the individual model GMST changes and the climate sensitivity. I have included a simple model … Continue reading

3 degrees C?

by Judith Curry Is 3 C warming over the 21st century now the ‘best estimate’?  A reframing of how we think about climate change over the 21st century, and my arguments for 1 C.

Rebelling against the Extinction Rebellion

by Larry Kummer The Extinction Rebellion and the Green New Deal arouse fears of extinction for other species, and humanity. Only the complicit silence of climate scientists makes this possible. Compare the alarmists’ claims with what scientists said in the … Continue reading

Assessment of climate change risk to the insurance sector

by Judith Curry The insurance sector is abuzz with a new report from AIR Worldwide on the insurance risk from the impact of climate change on hurricanes.  Insurance industry clients of my company, Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN), have requested … Continue reading

Greater future global warming (still) predicted from Earth’s recent energy budget

by Patrick Brown A response to Nic Lewis’ post A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought.

What’s the worst case? Emissions/concentration scenarios

by Judith Curry Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible?

Hurricanes & climate change: 21st century projections

by Judith Curry Final installment in my series on hurricanes and climate change.

Two more degrees by 2100!

by Vaughan Pratt An alternative perspective on 3 degrees C?

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part VI. Projections for the 21st century

by Judith Curry The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.

Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions

By Nic Lewis An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections. AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations … Continue reading

Climate Change, Extreme Weather, and Electric System Reliability

by Judith Curry I recently participated in a Technical Conference sponsored by the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).

Sea level rise whiplash

by Judith Curry Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.

Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?

by Nic Lewis *** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. … Continue reading

Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C

by Nic Lewis A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights … Continue reading

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part I – Introduction

by Judith Curry Introduction and context for a new Climate Etc. series on sea level rise.

How sensitive is global temperature to cumulative CO2 emissions?

by Nic Lewis The mean carbon cycle behaviour of CMIP5 ESMs and EMICs may be quite unrealistic.

Nature Unbound IX – 21st Century Climate Change

by Javier A conservative outlook on 21st century climate change

Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought

by Nic Lewis A critique of a recent paper by Brown and Caldeira published in Nature that predicted greater than expected global warming.

Prospects for a Prolonged Slowdown in Global Warming in the Early 21st Century

by Nic Lewis [W]e estimate that the warming slowdown (< 0.1 K/decade trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11%, and 6%, respectively. – Knutson et al.

A closer look at scenario RCP8.5

by Larry Kummer The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris climate was preceded by a surge of studies and articles warning of a dismal future if we do not take strong policy action. One scenario in the IPCC’s … Continue reading