Search Results for: rcp

Reassessing the RCPs

by Kevin Murphy A response to: “Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?”. This post demonstrates that RCP8.5 is so highly improbable that it should be dismissed from consideration, and thereby draws into question the validity of RCP8.5-based assertions such as those … Continue reading

Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?

by Judith Curry In considering ‘worst case’ climate change impacts, we first need to assess the realistic worst case for global carbon emissions.

A closer look at scenario RCP8.5

by Larry Kummer The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris climate was preceded by a surge of studies and articles warning of a dismal future if we do not take strong policy action. One scenario in the IPCC’s … Continue reading

What’s the worst case? Emissions/concentration scenarios

by Judith Curry Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible?

What’s the worst case? A possibilistic approach

by Judith Curry Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications and the media plausible? Are some of these outcomes impossible? On the other hand, are there unexplored worst-case scenarios that we have … Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Hurricanes & climate change: 21st century projections

by Judith Curry Final installment in my series on hurricanes and climate change.

Critique of the new Santer et al. (2019) paper

by Ross McKitrick Ben Santer et al. have a new paper out in Nature Climate Change arguing that with 40 years of satellite data available they can detect the anthropogenic influence in the mid-troposphere at a 5-sigma level of confidence. … Continue reading

Sea level rise whiplash

by Judith Curry Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.

Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?

by Nic Lewis *** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. … Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions

By Nic Lewis An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections. AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations … Continue reading

Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.

Special Report on Sea Level Rise

by Judith Curry I have now completed my assessment of sea level rise and climate change.

Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C

by Nic Lewis A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights … Continue reading

A Test of the Tropical 200-300 mb Warming Rate in Climate Models

by Ross McKitrick I sat down to write a description of my new paper with John Christy, but when I looked up a reference via Google Scholar something odd cropped up that requires a brief digression.

Nature Unbound IX – 21st Century Climate Change

by Javier A conservative outlook on 21st century climate change

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part VII U.S. coastal impacts

by Judith Curry The final installment in the CE series on sea level rise.

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part VI. Projections for the 21st century

by Judith Curry The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.

Sea level rise acceleration (or not). Part V: detection & attribution

by Judith Curry In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of … Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Marvel et al.’s new paper on estimating climate sensitivity from observations

by Nic Lewis Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations’.[1]

Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part I – Introduction

by Judith Curry Introduction and context for a new Climate Etc. series on sea level rise.

Reply to Patrick Brown’s response to comments on his Nature article

by Nic Lewis My reply to Patrick Brown’s response to my my comments on his Nature article.

Greater future global warming (still) predicted from Earth’s recent energy budget

by Patrick Brown A response to Nic Lewis’ post A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought.