Search Results for: fat tails

Tall tales and fat tails

by Judith Curry The economic value of climate mitigation depends sensitively on the slim possibility of extreme warming.

Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry (2018)

by Ross McKitrick Challenging the claim that a large set of climate model runs published since 1970’s are consistent with observations for the right reasons.

Climate sensitivity: lopping off the fat tail

by Judith Curry Interest is running high this week on the topic of climate sensitivity.

Worst case scenario versus fat tail

by Judith Curry  If we omit discussion of tail risk, are we really telling the whole truth? 

Escape from model land

by Judith Curry “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.” – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith

Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.

Climate uncertainty monster: What’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein.

Alarm about alarmism

by Judith Curry The climate change debate has entered what we might call the “Campfire Phase”, in which the goal is to tell the scariest story. – Oren Cass (twitter)

Uncertainty about the Climate Uncertainty Monster

by Judith Curry The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.

Climate models and precautionary measures

by Judith Curry Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – Nassim Taleb

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

On Trial: Social Cost of Carbon

by Judith Curry The Social Cost of Carbon is on trial in Minnesota.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Managing uncertainty in predictions of climate change and impacts

by Judith Curry Climatic Change has a new special issue:  Managing Uncertainty Predictions of Climate Change and Impacts.

What would it take to convince you about global warming?

by Judith Curry If the objective is to change public opinion, then changing elite opinion is a necessary prerequisite. In fact, I would say necessary and sufficient. I don’t think you need to win a war on talk radio to … Continue reading

Is climate change a ‘ruin’ problem?

by Judith Curry So, is climate change a local or global threat?  Are we risking global ruin?

How ‘extreme’ can it get?

by Judith Curry When might we see Category 6 hurricanes?  60C surface temperatures?

State of the blog discussion thread

by Judith Curry After almost four years of blogging at Climate Etc., its time for some reflection

Uncertainty, risk, and (in)action

by Judith Curry “So when you take uncertainty into account, it actually leads to the decision that we should take action more quickly.” I first spotted the statement in the Discover Magazine interview with myself and Michael Mann .  I thought … Continue reading

Probabilistic(?) estimates of climate sensitivity

by Judith Curry James Annan (with Hargreaves) has a new paper out, entitled “On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity.”  Here is the abstract:

AGU Fall Meeting: Part II

by Judith Curry I’ve spent the last several days at the AGU meeting in San Francisco.  With 19,200 participants, there is an overwhelming amount things going on all that the same time.   Here are some highlights of the meeting … Continue reading

Decision making under climate uncertainty: Part I

by Judith Curry Based upon the precautionary principle, the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established a qualitative climate goal for the long term: stabilization of the concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. The view of climate change … Continue reading

A climate of dialogue

by Judith Curry A pacated dialogue between two serious thinkers who disagree about climate change.

Climate science and the Supreme Court

by Judith Curry An alternative assessment of U.S. Supreme Court Justice nominee Amy Coney Barrett’s statements on climate change.

Covid discussion thread: Part VIII

by Judith Curry Interesting papers that I’ve recently spotted