Search Results for: fat tails

Escape from model land

by Judith Curry “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.” – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith

Climate uncertainty monster: What’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein.

The lure of incredible certitude

by Judith Curry “If you want people to believe what you *do* know, you need to be up front about what you *don’t* know.”-  Charles Manski

What’s the worst case? Climate sensitivity

by Judith Curry Are values of equilibrium climate sensitivity > 4.5 C plausible?

Alarm about alarmism

by Judith Curry The climate change debate has entered what we might call the “Campfire Phase”, in which the goal is to tell the scariest story. – Oren Cass (twitter)

Hothouse Earth

by Judith Curry We need to raise the bar on how we think about the possible worst case scenario for climate change.

Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.

Climate uncertainty & risk

by Judith Curry I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.

Uncertainty about the Climate Uncertainty Monster

by Judith Curry The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.

Nature Unbound X – The next glaciation

by Javier Summary: The IPCC expresses virtual certainty that a glaciation is not possible for the next 50 Kyr if CO2levels remain above 300 ppm. It is the long interglacial hypothesis. Analysis of interglacials of the past 800 Kyr shows … Continue reading

Assessment of Approaches to Updating the Social Cost of Carbon

by Judith Curry Some new analyses are shedding some light on deficiencies in the approach to estimate the social cost of carbon.

Climate sensitivity: lopping off the fat tail

by Judith Curry Interest is running high this week on the topic of climate sensitivity.

Climate models and precautionary measures

by Judith Curry Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – Nassim Taleb

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Managing uncertainty in predictions of climate change and impacts

by Judith Curry Climatic Change has a new special issue:  Managing Uncertainty Predictions of Climate Change and Impacts.

The uncertainty of climate sensitivity and its implication for the Paris negotiations

by Judith Curry A burning question for the Paris negotiations: Are the INDCs sufficient to prevent 2 degrees of warming?

What would it take to convince you about global warming?

by Judith Curry If the objective is to change public opinion, then changing elite opinion is a necessary prerequisite. In fact, I would say necessary and sufficient. I don’t think you need to win a war on talk radio to … Continue reading

On Trial: Social Cost of Carbon

by Judith Curry The Social Cost of Carbon is on trial in Minnesota.

Risk assessment: What is the plausible ‘worst scenario’ for climate change?

by Judith Curry We know that climate change is a problem – but how big a problem is it? We have to answer this question before we can make a good decision about how much effort to put into dealing … Continue reading

Is climate change a ‘ruin’ problem?

by Judith Curry So, is climate change a local or global threat?  Are we risking global ruin?

Worst case scenario versus fat tail

by Judith Curry  If we omit discussion of tail risk, are we really telling the whole truth? 

Lomborg: Impact of Current Climate Proposals

by Judith Curry Current climate policy promises will do little to stabilize the climate and their impact will be undetectable for many decades. – Bjorn Lomborg

Driving in the dark

by Judith Curry Long-term strategies should be built not on “visions” of the future but instead on the premise that longer term predictions (that is, forecasts of situations years and decades out), however presently credible, will probably prove wrong. – … Continue reading

Climate sensitivity: Ringberg edition

by Judith Curry Presentations are now available  from the WCRP Workshop on Earth’s Climate Sensitivity.