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Search Results for: fat tails
Tall tales and fat tails
by Judith Curry The economic value of climate mitigation depends sensitively on the slim possibility of extreme warming.
Posted in Economics, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry (2018)
by Ross McKitrick Challenging the claim that a large set of climate model runs published since 1970’s are consistent with observations for the right reasons.
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Climate sensitivity: lopping off the fat tail
by Judith Curry Interest is running high this week on the topic of climate sensitivity.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Worst case scenario versus fat tail
by Judith Curry If we omit discussion of tail risk, are we really telling the whole truth?
Posted in Uncertainty
Escape from model land
by Judith Curry “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.” – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith
Posted in climate models, Uncertainty
Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?
by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.
Posted in Oceans, Uncertainty
Climate uncertainty monster: What’s the worst case?
by Judith Curry On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein.
Posted in Scientific method
Alarm about alarmism
by Judith Curry The climate change debate has entered what we might call the “Campfire Phase”, in which the goal is to tell the scariest story. – Oren Cass (twitter)
Posted in Communication, Sociology of science
Uncertainty about the Climate Uncertainty Monster
by Judith Curry The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.
Posted in Uncertainty
Climate models and precautionary measures
by Judith Curry Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – Nassim Taleb
Posted in climate models, Policy, Uncertainty
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Week in review
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Week in review
Managing uncertainty in predictions of climate change and impacts
by Judith Curry Climatic Change has a new special issue: Managing Uncertainty Predictions of Climate Change and Impacts.
Posted in Uncertainty
What would it take to convince you about global warming?
by Judith Curry If the objective is to change public opinion, then changing elite opinion is a necessary prerequisite. In fact, I would say necessary and sufficient. I don’t think you need to win a war on talk radio to … Continue reading
Is climate change a ‘ruin’ problem?
by Judith Curry So, is climate change a local or global threat? Are we risking global ruin?
Posted in Policy
How ‘extreme’ can it get?
by Judith Curry When might we see Category 6 hurricanes? 60C surface temperatures?
Posted in Hurricanes
State of the blog discussion thread
by Judith Curry After almost four years of blogging at Climate Etc., its time for some reflection
Posted in Sociology of science
Uncertainty, risk, and (in)action
by Judith Curry “So when you take uncertainty into account, it actually leads to the decision that we should take action more quickly.” I first spotted the statement in the Discover Magazine interview with myself and Michael Mann . I thought … Continue reading
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
Probabilistic(?) estimates of climate sensitivity
by Judith Curry James Annan (with Hargreaves) has a new paper out, entitled “On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity.” Here is the abstract:
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncertainty
AGU Fall Meeting: Part II
by Judith Curry I’ve spent the last several days at the AGU meeting in San Francisco. With 19,200 participants, there is an overwhelming amount things going on all that the same time. Here are some highlights of the meeting … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Decision making under climate uncertainty: Part I
by Judith Curry Based upon the precautionary principle, the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established a qualitative climate goal for the long term: stabilization of the concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. The view of climate change … Continue reading
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
A climate of dialogue
by Judith Curry A pacated dialogue between two serious thinkers who disagree about climate change.
Posted in Sociology of science
Climate science and the Supreme Court
by Judith Curry An alternative assessment of U.S. Supreme Court Justice nominee Amy Coney Barrett’s statements on climate change.
Posted in Politics
Covid discussion thread: Part VIII
by Judith Curry Interesting papers that I’ve recently spotted
Posted in Uncategorized
