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Search Results for: fat tails
Tall tales and fat tails
by Judith Curry The economic value of climate mitigation depends sensitively on the slim possibility of extreme warming.
Posted in Economics, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Climate sensitivity: lopping off the fat tail
by Judith Curry Interest is running high this week on the topic of climate sensitivity.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Worst case scenario versus fat tail
by Judith Curry If we omit discussion of tail risk, are we really telling the whole truth?
Posted in Uncertainty
Climate uncertainty monster: What’s the worst case?
by Judith Curry On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein.
Posted in Scientific method
Alarm about alarmism
by Judith Curry The climate change debate has entered what we might call the “Campfire Phase”, in which the goal is to tell the scariest story. – Oren Cass (twitter)
Posted in Communication, Sociology of science
Uncertainty about the Climate Uncertainty Monster
by Judith Curry The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.
Posted in Uncertainty
Climate models and precautionary measures
by Judith Curry Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – Nassim Taleb
Posted in climate models, Policy, Uncertainty
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Week in review
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Week in review
Managing uncertainty in predictions of climate change and impacts
by Judith Curry Climatic Change has a new special issue: Managing Uncertainty Predictions of Climate Change and Impacts.
Posted in Uncertainty
What would it take to convince you about global warming?
by Judith Curry If the objective is to change public opinion, then changing elite opinion is a necessary prerequisite. In fact, I would say necessary and sufficient. I don’t think you need to win a war on talk radio to … Continue reading
Is climate change a ‘ruin’ problem?
by Judith Curry So, is climate change a local or global threat? Are we risking global ruin?
Posted in Policy
How ‘extreme’ can it get?
by Judith Curry When might we see Category 6 hurricanes? 60C surface temperatures?
Posted in Hurricanes
State of the blog discussion thread
by Judith Curry After almost four years of blogging at Climate Etc., its time for some reflection
Posted in Sociology of science
Uncertainty, risk, and (in)action
by Judith Curry “So when you take uncertainty into account, it actually leads to the decision that we should take action more quickly.” I first spotted the statement in the Discover Magazine interview with myself and Michael Mann . I thought … Continue reading
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
Probabilistic(?) estimates of climate sensitivity
by Judith Curry James Annan (with Hargreaves) has a new paper out, entitled “On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity.” Here is the abstract:
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncertainty
AGU Fall Meeting: Part II
by Judith Curry I’ve spent the last several days at the AGU meeting in San Francisco. With 19,200 participants, there is an overwhelming amount things going on all that the same time. Here are some highlights of the meeting … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Decision making under climate uncertainty: Part I
by Judith Curry Based upon the precautionary principle, the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established a qualitative climate goal for the long term: stabilization of the concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. The view of climate change … Continue reading
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
Hothouse Earth
by Judith Curry We need to raise the bar on how we think about the possible worst case scenario for climate change.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Twilight of the Climate Change Movement
by Judith Curry Don’t be fooled by the post-Paris fanfare: The climate change movement faces big trouble ahead.
Posted in Policy
A buoy-only sea surface temperature record
by Zeke Hausfather and Kevin Cowtan A buoy-only sea surface temperature record supports NOAA’s adjustments.
Posted in Oceans
A perspective on uncertainty and climate science
by Marcia Wyatt This past summer I was asked to give a presentation on science and ethics. The person who asked me was motivated by the Pope’s encyclical, the comments regarding climate change.
Posted in Uncertainty
Hiatus revisionism
by Judith Curry Some interesting new papers on the hiatus in global warming.
Posted in Attribution, Data and observations
Hansen’s backfire
by Judith Curry Jim Hansen’s new paper, and his PR strategy, are raising a whole host of issues that are arguably a backfire for his objectives.
Posted in Attribution
