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Search Results for: fat tails
Escape from model land
by Judith Curry “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.” – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith
Posted in climate models, Uncertainty
Climate uncertainty monster: What’s the worst case?
by Judith Curry On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein.
Posted in Scientific method
The lure of incredible certitude
by Judith Curry “If you want people to believe what you *do* know, you need to be up front about what you *don’t* know.”- Charles Manski
Posted in Uncertainty
What’s the worst case? Climate sensitivity
by Judith Curry Are values of equilibrium climate sensitivity > 4.5 C plausible?
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Alarm about alarmism
by Judith Curry The climate change debate has entered what we might call the “Campfire Phase”, in which the goal is to tell the scariest story. – Oren Cass (twitter)
Posted in Communication, Sociology of science
Hothouse Earth
by Judith Curry We need to raise the bar on how we think about the possible worst case scenario for climate change.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?
by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.
Posted in Oceans, Uncertainty
Climate uncertainty & risk
by Judith Curry I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.
Posted in climate models, Policy, Uncertainty
Uncertainty about the Climate Uncertainty Monster
by Judith Curry The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.
Posted in Uncertainty
Nature Unbound X – The next glaciation
by Javier Summary: The IPCC expresses virtual certainty that a glaciation is not possible for the next 50 Kyr if CO2levels remain above 300 ppm. It is the long interglacial hypothesis. Analysis of interglacials of the past 800 Kyr shows … Continue reading
Posted in Prediction
Assessment of Approaches to Updating the Social Cost of Carbon
by Judith Curry Some new analyses are shedding some light on deficiencies in the approach to estimate the social cost of carbon.
Climate sensitivity: lopping off the fat tail
by Judith Curry Interest is running high this week on the topic of climate sensitivity.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Climate models and precautionary measures
by Judith Curry Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – Nassim Taleb
Posted in climate models, Policy, Uncertainty
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Week in review
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Week in review
Managing uncertainty in predictions of climate change and impacts
by Judith Curry Climatic Change has a new special issue: Managing Uncertainty Predictions of Climate Change and Impacts.
Posted in Uncertainty
The uncertainty of climate sensitivity and its implication for the Paris negotiations
by Judith Curry A burning question for the Paris negotiations: Are the INDCs sufficient to prevent 2 degrees of warming?
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
What would it take to convince you about global warming?
by Judith Curry If the objective is to change public opinion, then changing elite opinion is a necessary prerequisite. In fact, I would say necessary and sufficient. I don’t think you need to win a war on talk radio to … Continue reading
Risk assessment: What is the plausible ‘worst scenario’ for climate change?
by Judith Curry We know that climate change is a problem – but how big a problem is it? We have to answer this question before we can make a good decision about how much effort to put into dealing … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change impacts, Policy
Is climate change a ‘ruin’ problem?
by Judith Curry So, is climate change a local or global threat? Are we risking global ruin?
Posted in Policy
Worst case scenario versus fat tail
by Judith Curry If we omit discussion of tail risk, are we really telling the whole truth?
Posted in Uncertainty
Lomborg: Impact of Current Climate Proposals
by Judith Curry Current climate policy promises will do little to stabilize the climate and their impact will be undetectable for many decades. – Bjorn Lomborg
Posted in Policy
Driving in the dark
by Judith Curry Long-term strategies should be built not on “visions” of the future but instead on the premise that longer term predictions (that is, forecasts of situations years and decades out), however presently credible, will probably prove wrong. – … Continue reading
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
Climate sensitivity: Ringberg edition
by Judith Curry Presentations are now available from the WCRP Workshop on Earth’s Climate Sensitivity.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
