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Search Results for: decision making uncertainty
Decision making under uncertainty – maximize expected social welfare
by -1=e^i pi Expected social welfare maximization is where you try to obtain the set of parameters (such as climate change policies) that will maximize the expected value of a social welfare function.
Posted in Policy
Decision making under uncertainty: the dog and the frisbee
by Judith Curry As you do not fight fire with fire, you do not fight complexity with complexity. Because complexity generates uncertainty, not risk, it requires a regulatory response grounded in simplicity, not complexity. To ask today’s regulators to save … Continue reading
Posted in Policy
Decision making under climate uncertainty: Part I
by Judith Curry Based upon the precautionary principle, the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established a qualitative climate goal for the long term: stabilization of the concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. The view of climate change … Continue reading
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
The Uncertainty Monster: Lessons From Non-Orthodox Economics
by Vincent Randall A perspective on economists’ grappling with the ‘uncertainty monster.’
Posted in Economics, Uncertainty
Uncertainty about the Climate Uncertainty Monster
by Judith Curry The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.
Posted in Uncertainty
Decision theory and the doom scenario of climate catastrophe
by Lucas Bergkamp Can decision theory help a rational person decide whether to believe in climate catastrophe?
Posted in Policy
Is much of our effort to combat global warming actually making things worse?
by Judith Curry Humanity is owed a serious investigation of how we have gone so far with the decarbonization project without a serious challenge in terms of engineering reality. – Michael Kelly
Managing uncertainty in predictions of climate change and impacts
by Judith Curry Climatic Change has a new special issue: Managing Uncertainty Predictions of Climate Change and Impacts.
Posted in Uncertainty
Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy (!)
We argue for a redesign of climate change mitigation policies to be ‘anti-fragile’ with respect to scientific uncertainty. – Otto et al.
Posted in Attribution, Policy
Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations
by Judith Curry How to gain clarity when making decisions in uncertain and complex situations.
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
Science, uncertainty and advocacy
by Judith Curry I’m attending an interesting conference in Nottingham: Circling the square: universities, the media, citizens and politics.
Posted in Communication, Policy, Uncertainty
Stalking the uncertainty monster
by Judith Curry Its time to check in with the Climate Uncertainty Monster.
Posted in Uncertainty
Ethics of communicating scientific uncertainty
by Judith Curry Last month I attended a Workshop on The Ethics of Communicating Scientific Uncertainty: Understanding How Scientists, Environmental Lawyers, and Journalists Treat Uncertainty.
Posted in Communication, Ethics
World Bank on Understanding Climate Uncertainty
by Judith Curry The impact of climate change looms large as a deep uncertainty with global consequences. – Khalra et al.
Posted in Policy, Uncertainty
UK-US Workshop Part IV: Limits of climate models for adaptation decision making
by Judith Curry This post discusses Workshop presentations on the utility of climate models for regional adaptation decisions.
Posted in Adaptation, climate models
UK-US Workshop Part III: Strategies for robust decision making for climate adaptation
by Judith Curry This post discusses Workshop presentations on methodologies and application examples of decision analytical strategies to support robust decision making on climate adaptation.
Posted in Adaptation
UK-US Workshop on Climate Science Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions
by Judith Curry Last week, I was privileged to host the UK-US Workshop on Climate Science Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions.
Posted in Adaptation
Taylor and Ravetz on the value of uncertainty
by Judith Curry . . . this “crisp number” mode of thinking has promoted the use of over-simplistic models and masking of uncertainties that can in turn lead to incomplete understanding of problems and bad decisions. – Peter Taylor and … Continue reading
Posted in Uncertainty
Uncertain future of climate uncertainty
by Judith Curry How believable are the IPCC’s continually increasing confidence levels?
Posted in Uncertainty
Uncertainty: lost in translation
by Judith Curry We have looked at what uncertainty means and doesn’t mean in science, how it is measured, when it can’t be measured and how that might change through research into the big questions. Above all we asked how other people can grapple constructively … Continue reading
Posted in Uncertainty
Coping with deep climate uncertainty
by Judith Curry So, what do you think climate science and policy would look like if the IPCC worked for the World Bank, instead of the UNFCCC?
Posted in Policy
Rebuilding public trust in science for policy-making: Japan perspective
by Judith Curry Until recently, there was little recognition within Japan’s science policy circle of the need to discuss the role of science in government policy-making. A rather innocent notion that the established knowledge and wisdom of scientists would ensure … Continue reading
Posted in Ethics, Policy, Sociology of science
RS Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather & Climate Prediction. Part I
by Judith Curry Later this week, the Royal Society is hosting a Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Prediction, With Application to Health, Agronomy, Hydrology, Energy and Economics.
Posted in Prediction, Uncertainty
Uncertainty in health impacts of climate change
by Judith Curry Health risks arise from the interaction of uncertain future climatic changes with complex ecological, physical, and socio-economic systems, which are simultaneously affected by numerous other changes, e.g. globalisation, demographic changes, and changes in land use, nutrition, health care quality. Policymaking on … Continue reading
Posted in Climate change impacts, Uncertainty
Uncertainty is not your friend (?)
by Judith Curry It is very clear that uncertainty is no one’s friend. We have seen that greater uncertainty about the evolution of the climate should give us even greater cause for concern. We have seen that all other things … Continue reading
Posted in Uncertainty
