Search Results for: decision making uncertainty

Decision making under uncertainty – maximize expected social welfare

by  -1=e^i pi Expected social welfare maximization is where you try to obtain the set of parameters (such as climate change policies) that will maximize the expected value of a social welfare function.

Decision making under uncertainty: the dog and the frisbee

by Judith Curry As you do not fight fire with fire, you do not fight complexity with complexity. Because complexity generates uncertainty, not risk, it requires a regulatory response grounded in simplicity, not complexity. To ask today’s regulators to save … Continue reading

Decision making under climate uncertainty: Part I

by Judith Curry Based upon the precautionary principle, the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established a qualitative climate goal for the long term: stabilization of the concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. The view of climate change … Continue reading

The Uncertainty Monster: Lessons From Non-Orthodox Economics

by Vincent Randall A perspective on economists’ grappling with the ‘uncertainty monster.’

Uncertainty about the Climate Uncertainty Monster

by Judith Curry The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.

Decision theory and the doom scenario of climate catastrophe

by Lucas Bergkamp Can decision theory help a rational person decide whether to believe in climate catastrophe?

Is much of our effort to combat global warming actually making things worse?

by Judith Curry Humanity is owed a serious investigation of how we have gone so far with the decarbonization project without a serious challenge in terms of engineering reality. – Michael Kelly

Managing uncertainty in predictions of climate change and impacts

by Judith Curry Climatic Change has a new special issue:  Managing Uncertainty Predictions of Climate Change and Impacts.

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy (!)

We argue for a redesign of climate change mitigation policies to be ‘anti-fragile’ with respect to scientific uncertainty. – Otto et al.

Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations

by Judith Curry How to gain clarity when making decisions in uncertain and complex situations.

Science, uncertainty and advocacy

by Judith Curry I’m attending an interesting conference in Nottingham:  Circling the square: universities, the media, citizens and politics.

Stalking the uncertainty monster

by Judith Curry Its time to check in with the Climate Uncertainty Monster.

Ethics of communicating scientific uncertainty

by Judith Curry Last month I attended a Workshop on The Ethics of Communicating Scientific Uncertainty:  Understanding How Scientists, Environmental Lawyers, and Journalists Treat Uncertainty.

World Bank on Understanding Climate Uncertainty

by Judith Curry The impact of climate change looms large as a deep uncertainty with global consequences. – Khalra et al.

UK-US Workshop Part IV: Limits of climate models for adaptation decision making

by Judith Curry This post discusses Workshop presentations on the utility of climate models for regional adaptation decisions.

UK-US Workshop Part III: Strategies for robust decision making for climate adaptation

by Judith Curry This post discusses Workshop presentations on methodologies and application examples of decision analytical strategies to support robust decision making on climate adaptation.

UK-US Workshop on Climate Science Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions

by Judith Curry Last week, I was privileged to host the UK-US Workshop on Climate Science Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions.

Taylor and Ravetz on the value of uncertainty

by Judith Curry . . . this “crisp number” mode of thinking has promoted the use of over-simplistic models and masking of uncertainties that can in turn lead to incomplete understanding of problems and bad decisions. – Peter Taylor and … Continue reading

Uncertain future of climate uncertainty

by Judith Curry How believable are the IPCC’s continually increasing confidence levels?

Uncertainty: lost in translation

by Judith Curry We have looked at what uncertainty means and doesn’t mean in science, how it is measured, when it can’t be measured and how that might change through research into the big questions. Above all we asked how other people can grapple constructively … Continue reading

Coping with deep climate uncertainty

by Judith Curry So, what do you think climate science and policy would look like if the IPCC worked for the World Bank, instead of the UNFCCC?

Rebuilding public trust in science for policy-making: Japan perspective

by Judith Curry Until recently, there was little recognition within Japan’s science policy circle of the need to discuss the role of science in government policy-making. A rather innocent notion that the established knowledge and wisdom of scientists would ensure … Continue reading

RS Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather & Climate Prediction. Part I

by Judith Curry Later this week, the Royal Society is hosting a Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Prediction, With Application to Health, Agronomy, Hydrology, Energy and Economics.

Uncertainty in health impacts of climate change

by Judith Curry Health risks arise from the interaction of uncertain future climatic changes with complex ecological, physical, and socio-economic systems, which are simultaneously affected by numerous other changes, e.g. globalisation, demographic changes, and changes in land use, nutrition, health care quality. Policymaking on … Continue reading

Uncertainty is not your friend (?)

by Judith Curry It is very clear that uncertainty is no one’s friend. We have seen that greater uncertainty about the evolution of the climate should give us even greater cause for concern. We have seen that all other things … Continue reading