Search Results for: decision making uncertainty

Climate adaptation sense. Part III: Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways

by Judith Curry Best practices in adapting to sea level rise use a framework suitable for decision making under deep uncertainty.

Decision making under uncertainty – maximize expected social welfare

by  -1=e^i pi Expected social welfare maximization is where you try to obtain the set of parameters (such as climate change policies) that will maximize the expected value of a social welfare function.

Five rules for evidence communication

by Judith Curry “Avoid unwarranted certainty, neat narratives and partisan presentation; strive to inform, not persuade.”

Escape from model land

by Judith Curry “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.” – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith

Climate adaptation follies. Part II: scenarios of future sea level rise

by Judith Curry How did the state of New Jersey come to adopt sea level rise projections for their adaptation planning that are more than twice as high as the IPCC’s values?

Science and politics

by Judith Curry “I’m reaching out to scientists this week about the election. How do you feel about it? Which of the candidates has the best plan, for you, in science and technology?”

The lure of incredible certitude

by Judith Curry “If you want people to believe what you *do* know, you need to be up front about what you *don’t* know.”-  Charles Manski

Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?

by Judith Curry My new manuscript is now available.

The toxic rhetoric of climate change

by Judith Curry “I genuinely have the fear that climate change is going to kill me and all my family, I’m not even kidding it’s  all I have thought about for the last 9 months every second of the day. … Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye the past 7(!) weeks.

Climate uncertainty & risk

by Judith Curry I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.

Uncomfortable knowledge

by Judith Curry On the misuse of science and scientific authority.

15 minutes

by Judith Curry In a recent invited talk at the American Chemical Society annual meeting, I attempted to explain the climate debate in 15 minutes.

3 degrees C?

by Judith Curry Is 3 C warming over the 21st century now the ‘best estimate’?  A reframing of how we think about climate change over the 21st century, and my arguments for 1 C.

National Climate Assessment: A crisis of epistemic overconfidence

by Judith Curry “You can say I don’t believe in gravity. But if you step off the cliff you are going down. So we can say I don’t believe climate is changing, but it is based on science.” – Katherine … Continue reading

IPCC AR6: Breaking the hegemony of global climate models

by Judith Curry A rather astonishing conclusion drawn from reading the fine print of the IPCC AR6 WG1 Report.

Coronavirus uncertainty

by Judith Curry My thoughts on coronavirus and deep uncertainty.

Climate uncertainty monster: What’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein.

What’s the worst case? A possibilistic approach

by Judith Curry Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications and the media plausible? Are some of these outcomes impossible? On the other hand, are there unexplored worst-case scenarios that we have … Continue reading

Week in review – climate science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week — climate science & policy

Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?

by Judith Curry Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Truth or consequences: global warming consensus thinking and the decline of public debate

by Geoffrey Weiss and Claude Roessiger The so-called debate about the causes and effects of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is a notable irony. Rather than a forum for free disputation, AGW has in recent years become the site of a … Continue reading

Assessment of climate change risk to the insurance sector

by Judith Curry The insurance sector is abuzz with a new report from AIR Worldwide on the insurance risk from the impact of climate change on hurricanes.  Insurance industry clients of my company, Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN), have requested … Continue reading

FIRE

by Judith Curry Subtitle: our failure to live in harmony with nature.