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Search Results for: climate sensitivity
Climate sensitivity in light of the latest energy imbalance evidence
by Frank Bosse Equilibrium climate sensitivity computed from the latest energy imbalance data.
Posted in Uncategorized
Climate sensitivity calculator app
by Alberto Zaragoza Comendador How sensitive is the Earth’s climate to greenhouse gases? Speaking about carbon dioxide in particular, how much would air temperatures increase if we doubled atmospheric concentrations of said gas?
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
New paper suggests historical period estimates of climate sensitivity are not biased low by unusual variability in sea surface temperature patterns
By Nic Lewis An important new paper by Thorsten Mauritsen, Associate Professor at Stockholm University[i] and myself has just been accepted for publication (Lewis and Mauritsen 2020)[ii]. Its abstract reads:
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
What’s the worst case? Climate sensitivity
by Judith Curry Are values of equilibrium climate sensitivity > 4.5 C plausible?
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 2
By Nic Lewis In an earlier article here I discussed a Comment on Lewis and Curry 2018 (LC18) by Kevin Cowtan and Peter Jacobs (CJ20), and a Reply from myself and Judith Curry recently published by Journal of Climate (copy … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncategorized
Tagged climate feedback, climate sensitivity
Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS
by Kenneth Fritsch Abstract. An analysis is presented of he disconnection between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Historical and Future periods when considering the relationship of the individual model GMST changes and the climate sensitivity. I have included a simple model … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Gregory et al 2019: Unsound claims about bias in climate feedback and climate sensitivity estimation
By Nic Lewis The recently published open-access paper “How accurately can the climate sensitivity to CO2 be estimated from historical climate change?” by Gregory et al.[i] makes a number of assertions, many uncontentious but others in my view unjustified, misleading … Continue reading
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncategorized
Tagged climate feedback, climate sensitivity, regression, statistics
Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions
By Nic Lewis An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections. AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Compensation between cloud feedback + ECS and aerosol-cloud forcing in CMIP6 models
By Nic Lewis An important paper, Wang et al.[1], on the relationships between cloud feedback, climate sensitivity (ECS) and aerosol-cloud interaction in the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) has just been published. The key conclusion of the paper … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Warming patterns are unlikely to explain low historical estimates of climate sensitivity
By Nic Lewis A critique of of a new paper by Andrews et al., Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity.
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Emergent constraints on TCR and ECS from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
By Nic Lewis This is a brief comment on a new paper[i] by a mathematician in the Exeter Climate Systems group, Femke Nijsse, and two better known colleagues, Peter Cox and Mark Williamson. I note that Earth Systems Dynamics published … Continue reading
Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity: Part II
by Nic Lewis The four constraints that Caldwell assessed as credible.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity: Part I
by Nic Lewis Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity: their nature and assessment of validity.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity
by Nic Lewis We have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate “The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity“. The paper … Continue reading
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncategorized
Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity in global models. Part III
by Nic Lewis The two strongest potentially credible constraints, and conclusions.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry (2018)
by Ross McKitrick Challenging the claim that a large set of climate model runs published since 1970’s are consistent with observations for the right reasons.
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Committed warming and the pattern effect
By Nic Lewis A critique of the paper “Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect”, by Zhou, Zelinka, Dessler and Wang.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Why Dessler et al.’s critique of energy-budget climate sensitivity estimation is mistaken
By Nic Lewis Plain language summary A new paper by Andrew Dessler et al. claims, based on 100 simulations of the historical period (1850 to date) by the MPI‑ESM1.1 climate model, that estimates of climate sensitivity using the energy-budget method … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Marvel et al.’s new paper on estimating climate sensitivity from observations
by Nic Lewis Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations’.[1]
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Inconsistency between historical and future CMIP5 simulations
by Kenneth Fritsch Identification of significant differences between the historical and future CMIP5 simulations for intrinsic climate sensitivities.
Posted in climate models
Why climate predictions are so difficult
by Judith Curry An insightful interview with Bjorn Stevens.
Posted in climate models, Prediction, Sensitivity & feedbacks
15 minutes
by Judith Curry In a recent invited talk at the American Chemical Society annual meeting, I attempted to explain the climate debate in 15 minutes.
Posted in Uncategorized
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Week in review
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks.
Posted in Uncategorized, Week in review
Resplandy et al. Part 5: Final outcome
By Nic Lewis The editors of Nature have retracted the Resplandy et al. paper.
