Search Results for: climate sensitivity

Climate sensitivity in light of the latest energy imbalance evidence

by Frank Bosse Equilibrium climate sensitivity computed from the latest energy imbalance data.

New paper suggests historical period estimates of climate sensitivity are not biased low by unusual variability in sea surface temperature patterns

By Nic Lewis An important new paper by Thorsten Mauritsen, Associate Professor at Stockholm University[i] and myself has just been accepted for publication (Lewis and Mauritsen 2020)[ii]. Its abstract reads:

Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS

by Kenneth Fritsch Abstract. An analysis is presented of  he disconnection between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Historical and Future periods when considering the relationship of the individual model GMST changes and the climate sensitivity. I have included a simple model … Continue reading

Climate sensitivity calculator app

by Alberto Zaragoza Comendador How sensitive is the Earth’s climate to greenhouse gases? Speaking about carbon dioxide in particular, how much would air temperatures increase if we doubled atmospheric concentrations of said gas?

Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 2

By Nic Lewis In an earlier article here I discussed a Comment on Lewis and Curry 2018 (LC18) by Kevin Cowtan and Peter Jacobs (CJ20), and a Reply from myself and Judith Curry recently published by Journal of Climate (copy … Continue reading

What’s the worst case? Climate sensitivity

by Judith Curry Are values of equilibrium climate sensitivity > 4.5 C plausible?

Gregory et al 2019: Unsound claims about bias in climate feedback and climate sensitivity estimation

By Nic Lewis The recently published open-access paper “How accurately can the climate sensitivity to CO2 be estimated from historical climate change?” by Gregory et al.[i] makes a number of assertions, many uncontentious but others in my view unjustified, misleading … Continue reading

Compensation between cloud feedback + ECS and aerosol-cloud forcing in CMIP6 models

By Nic Lewis An important paper, Wang et al.[1], on the relationships between cloud feedback, climate sensitivity (ECS) and aerosol-cloud interaction in the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) has just been published. The key conclusion of the paper … Continue reading

Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions

By Nic Lewis An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections. AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations … Continue reading

Emergent constraints on TCR and ECS from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

By Nic Lewis This is a brief comment on a new paper[i] by a mathematician in the Exeter Climate Systems group, Femke Nijsse, and two better known colleagues, Peter Cox and Mark Williamson. I note that Earth Systems Dynamics published … Continue reading

Warming patterns are unlikely to explain low historical estimates of climate sensitivity

By Nic Lewis A critique of of a new paper by Andrews  et al., Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity.

Committed warming and the pattern effect

By Nic Lewis A critique of the paper “Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect”, by Zhou, Zelinka, Dessler and Wang.

IPCC AR6: Breaking the hegemony of global climate models

by Judith Curry A rather astonishing conclusion drawn from reading the fine print of the IPCC AR6 WG1 Report.

Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry (2018)

by Ross McKitrick Challenging the claim that a large set of climate model runs published since 1970’s are consistent with observations for the right reasons.

Challenges of the clean energy transition

by Judith Curry This morning I participated Conference on Energy and Decarbonization – A New Jersey Business Perspective. UPDATE: full recording of the conference [here]

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity: Part II

by Nic Lewis The four constraints that Caldwell assessed as credible.

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity: Part I

by Nic Lewis Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity:  their nature and assessment of validity.

Impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity

by Nic Lewis We have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate “The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity“.  The paper … Continue reading

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity in global models. Part III

by Nic Lewis The two strongest potentially credible constraints, and conclusions.

15 minutes

by Judith Curry In a recent invited talk at the American Chemical Society annual meeting, I attempted to explain the climate debate in 15 minutes.

Inconsistency between historical and future CMIP5 simulations

by Kenneth Fritsch Identification of significant differences between the historical and future CMIP5 simulations for intrinsic climate sensitivities.

Why Dessler et al.’s critique of energy-budget climate sensitivity estimation is mistaken

By Nic Lewis Plain language summary A new paper by Andrew Dessler et al. claims, based on 100 simulations of the historical period (1850 to date) by the MPI‑ESM1.1 climate model, that estimates of climate sensitivity using the energy-budget method … Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks

Solar variations controversy

by Judith Curry “The field of Sun-climate relations . . . in recent years has been corrupted by unwelcome political and financial influence as climate change sceptics have seized upon putative solar effects as an excuse for inaction on anthropogenic … Continue reading

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks.