Search Results for: climate sensitivity

New paper suggests historical period estimates of climate sensitivity are not biased low by unusual variability in sea surface temperature patterns

By Nic Lewis An important new paper by Thorsten Mauritsen, Associate Professor at Stockholm University[i] and myself has just been accepted for publication (Lewis and Mauritsen 2020)[ii]. Its abstract reads:

Climate sensitivity in light of the latest energy imbalance evidence

by Frank Bosse Equilibrium climate sensitivity computed from the latest energy imbalance data.

Gregory et al 2019: Unsound claims about bias in climate feedback and climate sensitivity estimation

By Nic Lewis The recently published open-access paper “How accurately can the climate sensitivity to CO2 be estimated from historical climate change?” by Gregory et al.[i] makes a number of assertions, many uncontentious but others in my view unjustified, misleading … Continue reading

What’s the worst case? Climate sensitivity

by Judith Curry Are values of equilibrium climate sensitivity > 4.5 C plausible?

Climate sensitivity calculator app

by Alberto Zaragoza Comendador How sensitive is the Earth’s climate to greenhouse gases? Speaking about carbon dioxide in particular, how much would air temperatures increase if we doubled atmospheric concentrations of said gas?

Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions

By Nic Lewis An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections. AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations … Continue reading

Warming patterns are unlikely to explain low historical estimates of climate sensitivity

By Nic Lewis A critique of of a new paper by Andrews  et al., Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity.

Why Dessler et al.’s critique of energy-budget climate sensitivity estimation is mistaken

By Nic Lewis Plain language summary A new paper by Andrew Dessler et al. claims, based on 100 simulations of the historical period (1850 to date) by the MPI‑ESM1.1 climate model, that estimates of climate sensitivity using the energy-budget method … Continue reading

Impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity

by Nic Lewis We have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate “The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity“.  The paper … Continue reading

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity in global models. Part III

by Nic Lewis The two strongest potentially credible constraints, and conclusions.

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity: Part II

by Nic Lewis The four constraints that Caldwell assessed as credible.

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity: Part I

by Nic Lewis Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity:  their nature and assessment of validity.

Marvel et al.’s new paper on estimating climate sensitivity from observations

by Nic Lewis Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations’.[1]

Does a new paper really reconcile instrumental and model-based climate sensitivity estimates?

by Nic Lewis A new paper in Science Advances by Cristian Proistosescu and Peter Huybers (hereafter PH17) claims that accounting for the decline in feedback strength over time that occurs in most CMIP5 coupled global climate models (GCMs), brings observationally-based … Continue reading

Internal climate variability as a confounding factor in climate sensitivity estimates

by Frank Bosse Towards eliminating multi-decadal natural oscillations in determination of the Transient Climate Response (TCR) to CO2.

Are energy budget climate sensitivity values biased low?

by Nic Lewis In a recently published paper (REA16),[i] Mark Richardson et al. claim that recent observation-based energy budget estimates of the Earth’s transient climate response (TCR) are biased substantially low, with the true value some 24% higher.

Towards reconciling climate sensitivity estimates from climate models and observatiions

by Judith Curry A new paper purports to have resolved the discrepancy between climate response estimates from global climate models versus energy budget models.

Updated climate sensitivity estimates

by Nic Lewis An update to the calculations in Lewis and Curry (2014).

Appraising Marvel et al.: Implications of forcing efficacies for climate sensitivity estimates

by Nicholas Lewis Different agents may have effects on global temperature (GMST) different to those which would be expected simply by reference to the radiative forcing they exert. This difference is encapsulated in the term “forcing efficacy”.

The uncertainty of climate sensitivity and its implication for the Paris negotiations

by Judith Curry A burning question for the Paris negotiations: Are the INDCs sufficient to prevent 2 degrees of warming?

Climate sensitivity: Ringberg edition

by Judith Curry Presentations are now available  from the WCRP Workshop on Earth’s Climate Sensitivity.

Climate sensitivity: lopping off the fat tail

by Judith Curry Interest is running high this week on the topic of climate sensitivity.

Implications of lower aerosol forcing for climate sensitivity

by Nic Lewis A new paper on aerosol radiative forcing has important implications for estimates of climate sensitivity.

Lewis and Curry: Climate sensitivity uncertainty

by Judith Curry Our new paper on climate sensitivity is now published.

The Astonishing Math of Michael Ghil’s Climate Sensitivity

by Robert Ellison Climate sensitivity is large in the vicinity of tipping points but moderate otherwise.