Search Results for: climate models

IPCC AR6: Breaking the hegemony of global climate models

by Judith Curry A rather astonishing conclusion drawn from reading the fine print of the IPCC AR6 WG1 Report.

New Confirmation that Climate Models Overstate Atmospheric Warming

by Ross McKitrick Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better. The papers are Mitchell et al. (2020) “The vertical profile of recent tropical … Continue reading

Structural errors in global climate models

by Gerald Browning Climate model sensitivity to CO2 is heavily dependent on artificial parameterizations (e.g. clouds, convection) that are implemented in global climate models that utilize  the wrong atmospheric dynamical system and excessive dissipation.

New confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming

by Ross McKitrick Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better.

Escape from model land

by Judith Curry “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.” – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith

Inconsistency between historical and future CMIP5 simulations

by Kenneth Fritsch Identification of significant differences between the historical and future CMIP5 simulations for intrinsic climate sensitivities.

Compensation between cloud feedback + ECS and aerosol-cloud forcing in CMIP6 models

By Nic Lewis An important paper, Wang et al.[1], on the relationships between cloud feedback, climate sensitivity (ECS) and aerosol-cloud interaction in the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) has just been published. The key conclusion of the paper … Continue reading

Analysis of a carbon forecast gone wrong: the case of the IPCC FAR

by Alberto Zaragoza Comendador The IPCC’s First Assessment Report (FAR) made forecasts or projections of future concentrations of carbon dioxide that turned out to be too high.

Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS

by Kenneth Fritsch Abstract. An analysis is presented of  he disconnection between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Historical and Future periods when considering the relationship of the individual model GMST changes and the climate sensitivity. I have included a simple model … Continue reading

Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry (2018)

by Ross McKitrick Challenging the claim that a large set of climate model runs published since 1970’s are consistent with observations for the right reasons.

Emergent constraints on TCR and ECS from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

By Nic Lewis This is a brief comment on a new paper[i] by a mathematician in the Exeter Climate Systems group, Femke Nijsse, and two better known colleagues, Peter Cox and Mark Williamson. I note that Earth Systems Dynamics published … Continue reading

A Test of the Tropical 200-300 mb Warming Rate in Climate Models

by Ross McKitrick I sat down to write a description of my new paper with John Christy, but when I looked up a reference via Google Scholar something odd cropped up that requires a brief digression.

Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 2

By Nic Lewis In an earlier article here I discussed a Comment on Lewis and Curry 2018 (LC18) by Kevin Cowtan and Peter Jacobs (CJ20), and a Reply from myself and Judith Curry recently published by Journal of Climate (copy … Continue reading

Why climate predictions are so difficult

by Judith Curry An insightful interview with Bjorn Stevens.

Climate uncertainty & risk

by Judith Curry I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.

Are Climate Models Overstating Warming?

by Ross McKitrick A number of authors, including the IPCC, have argued that climate models have systematically overstated the rate of global warming in recent decades. A recent paper by Millar et al. (2017) presented the same finding in a … Continue reading

Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050

by Judith Curry A range of scenarios for global mean surface temperature change between 2020 and 2050, derived using a semi-empirical approach. All three modes of natural climate variability – volcanoes, solar and internal variability – are expected to act … Continue reading

Climate Change, Extreme Weather, and Electric System Reliability

by Judith Curry I recently participated in a Technical Conference sponsored by the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).

Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?

by Nic Lewis *** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. … Continue reading

5 minutes

by Judith Curry How would you explain the complexity and uncertainty surrounding climate change plus how we should respond (particularly with regards to CO2 emissions) in five minutes?

Of boundary and initial conditions

by Dan Hughes and Tomas Milanovic Further reflections on the application of the divergence theorem to the Earth’s climate system.

Heat waves and hot air

by Judith Curry Heat waves are the new polar bears, stoking alarm about climate change.  Climate scientists addressing this in the media are using misleading and/or inadequate approaches.  How should we approach assessing whether and how much manmade global warming … Continue reading

Interview: Climate Change – A Different Perspective with Judith Curry

by Judith Curry My recent interview on the Strong and Free podcast.

Energy budgets, climate system domains and internal variability

by Dan Hughes It is not a boundary value problem.

Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C

by Nic Lewis A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights … Continue reading