Search Results for: certainty

Five rules for evidence communication

by Judith Curry “Avoid unwarranted certainty, neat narratives and partisan presentation; strive to inform, not persuade.”

How epidemiologists try to fool us with flawed statistical practices

by S. Stanley Young and Warren Kindzierski Climate Etc. recently carried several insightful posts about How we fool ourselves. One of the posts – Part II: Scientific consensus building – was right on the money given our experience! The post pointed out that… ‘researcher degrees … Continue reading

What the pandemic has taught us about science

The scientific method remains the best way to solve many problems, but bias, overconfidence and politics can sometimes lead scientists astray

Science and politics

by Judith Curry “I’m reaching out to scientists this week about the election. How do you feel about it? Which of the candidates has the best plan, for you, in science and technology?”

Week in review – climate edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks

Collapse of the fake consensus on Covid-19 origins

by Judith Curry The concerning saga of the creation, enforcement and collapse of a ‘consensus’ on Covid-19 origins.

A veneer of certainty stoking climate alarm

by Judith Curry In private, climate scientists are much less certain than they tell the public. – Rupert Darwall

CAGW: a ‘snarl’ word?

The term ‘CAGW’  has both appropriate and inappropriate usage.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Truth or consequences: global warming consensus thinking and the decline of public debate

by Geoffrey Weiss and Claude Roessiger The so-called debate about the causes and effects of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is a notable irony. Rather than a forum for free disputation, AGW has in recent years become the site of a … Continue reading

Why climate predictions are so difficult

by Judith Curry An insightful interview with Bjorn Stevens.

Can religiosity predict cultural climate beliefs?

by Andy West Probing the relationship between religiosity globally, and cultural beliefs in the narrative of imminent / certain global climate catastrophe: Post 1 of 3.

The catastrophe narrative

by Andy West A narrative propagated by emotive engagement, not veracity.

Climate’s uncertainty principle

by Garth Paltridge On the costs and benefits of climate action.

Child prophets and proselytizers of climate catastrophe

by Andy West The role of children in the culture of climate catastrophism

Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Sea level rise whiplash

by Judith Curry Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.

What’s the worst case? A possibilistic approach

by Judith Curry Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications and the media plausible? Are some of these outcomes impossible? On the other hand, are there unexplored worst-case scenarios that we have … Continue reading

Climate uncertainty & risk

by Judith Curry I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.

Nature Unbound X – The next glaciation

by Javier Summary: The IPCC expresses virtual certainty that a glaciation is not possible for the next 50 Kyr if CO2levels remain above 300 ppm. It is the long interglacial hypothesis. Analysis of interglacials of the past 800 Kyr shows … Continue reading

A philospher’s reflections on AGW denial

by Dr. Paul Viminitz Of the things I care most about, AGW is near the bottom. But because, as George W. Bush put it, either you’re with us or you’re against them, I think I’d rather be interestingly wrong than … Continue reading

CO2 sensitivity: the polar solution

by Alan Longhurst Natural climate variability in the polar regions.

Uncertainty about the Climate Uncertainty Monster

by Judith Curry The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.

National Climate Assessment: A crisis of epistemic overconfidence

by Judith Curry “You can say I don’t believe in gravity. But if you step off the cliff you are going down. So we can say I don’t believe climate is changing, but it is based on science.” – Katherine … Continue reading