Search Results for: Nic Lewis

Nic Lewis vs the UK Met Office

by Judith Curry Julia Slingo, Chief Scientist at the UK Met Office,   has responded to Nic Lewis’ critique of UK Met Office’s report on the pause.

Nic Lewis on the UK Met Office on the pause

by Nic Lewis These comments constitute a response to erroneous statements and misrepresentations made in a report published by the Met Office in July 2013: “The recent pause in global warming (3): What are the implications for projections of future … Continue reading

Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry (2018)

by Ross McKitrick Challenging the claim that a large set of climate model runs published since 1970’s are consistent with observations for the right reasons.

Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 2

By Nic Lewis In an earlier article here I discussed a Comment on Lewis and Curry 2018 (LC18) by Kevin Cowtan and Peter Jacobs (CJ20), and a Reply from myself and Judith Curry recently published by Journal of Climate (copy … Continue reading

Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 1

By Nic Lewis A comment on LC18 (recent paper by Lewis and Curry on climate sensitivity)  by Cowtan and Jacobs has been published, along with our response.

Quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2

by Fred Haynie I conclude that, the IPCC’s model assumptions that long-term natural net rate of accumulation is constant and anthropogenic emission rates are the only contributor to total long-term accumulation of atmospheric CO2, is false.

Lewis and Curry: Climate sensitivity uncertainty

by Judith Curry Our new paper on climate sensitivity is now published.

Climate sensitivity: technical discussion thread

by Judith Curry The Lewis and Crok paper is stimulating much discussion; unfortunately little of it is technical.  Lets devote a thread to technical discussion on the issues the raise.

Lewis and Crok: Climate less sensitive to CO2 than models suggest

by Judith Curry Nic Lewis and Marcel Crok have published a new report on climate sensitivity.

COVID-19: why did a second wave occur even in regions hit hard by the first wave?

By Nic Lewis  Introduction Many people, myself included, thought that in the many regions where COVID-19 infections were consistently reducing during the summer, indicating that the applicable herd immunity threshold had apparently been crossed, it was unlikely that a major … Continue reading

The relative infectivity of the new UK variant of SARS-CoV-2

By Nic Lewis Key points A new variant, B.1.1.7, of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has recently spread rapidly in England The public health agency’s best estimate of B.1.1.7’s weekly growth rate advantage is 1.51x They mis-convert this in a reproduction number … Continue reading

T cell cross-reactivity and the Herd immunity threshold

By Nic Lewis An interesting new paper by Marc Lipsitch and co-authors, “Cross-reactive memory T cells and herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2”, has recently been published.[1] It discusses immunological and epidemiological aspects and implications of pre-existing cross-reactive adaptive immune system memory … Continue reading

Herd immunity to COVID-19 and pre-existing immune responses

By Nic Lewis I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my … Continue reading

COVID-19: evidence shows that transmission by schoolchildren is low

By Nic Lewis Much fuss has been made in the UK, not least by teachers’ unions, about recommencing physical school attendance. As this issue applies to many countries, I thought it worth highlighting research findings in Europe.

New paper suggests historical period estimates of climate sensitivity are not biased low by unusual variability in sea surface temperature patterns

By Nic Lewis An important new paper by Thorsten Mauritsen, Associate Professor at Stockholm University[i] and myself has just been accepted for publication (Lewis and Mauritsen 2020)[ii]. Its abstract reads:

Emergent constraints on TCR and ECS from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

By Nic Lewis This is a brief comment on a new paper[i] by a mathematician in the Exeter Climate Systems group, Femke Nijsse, and two better known colleagues, Peter Cox and Mark Williamson. I note that Earth Systems Dynamics published … Continue reading

Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought – update

By Nic Lewis I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my … Continue reading

The progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Sweden: an analysis

By Nic Lewis The course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden is of great interest, as it is one of very few advanced nations where no lockdown order that heavily restricted people’s movements and other basic freedoms was imposed. As … Continue reading

Did lockdowns really save 3 million COVID-19 deaths, as Flaxman et al. claim?

By Nic Lewis Key points about the recent Nature paper by Flaxman and other Imperial College modellers

When does government intervention make sense for COVID-19?

By Nic Lewis Introduction I showed in my last article that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and infectivity of individuals would reduce the herd immunity threshold, in my view probably very substantially, and that evidence from Stockholm County … Continue reading

Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought

By Nic Lewis Introduction A study published in March by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson20[1]) appears to have been largely responsible for driving government actions in the UK and, to a fair extent, in the US and … Continue reading

A sensible COVID-19 exit strategy for the UK

By Nic Lewis The current approach A study by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson et al. 2020[i]) appears to be largely responsible for driving UK government policy actions. The lockdown imposed in the UK appears, unsurprisingly, to … Continue reading

Imperial College UK COVID-19 numbers don’t seem to add up

By Nic Lewis Introduction and summary A study published two weeks ago by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson20[1]) appears to be largely responsible for driving UK government policy actions. The study is not peer reviewed; indeed, it … Continue reading

COVID-19: Updated data implies that UK modelling hugely overestimates the expected death rates from infection

By Nic Lewis Introduction There has been much media coverage about the danger to life posed by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. While it is clearly a serious threat, one should consider whether the best evidence supports the current degree of … Continue reading

2020

by Judith Curry Happy New Year!