Twitter
- The 'new normal': global temperature now 'appears' to be 0.5C warmer owing to a changed climate baseline. See thi… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 3 hours ago
Search
Denizens
Recent comments
- Paul in uk on COVID-19: why did a second wave occur even in regions hit hard by the first wave?
- Robert I. Ellison on The big ‘cancel’
- Franktoo on The big ‘cancel’
- Joshua on The big ‘cancel’
- Joshua on The big ‘cancel’
- cerescokid on The big ‘cancel’
- verytallguy on COVID-19: why did a second wave occur even in regions hit hard by the first wave?
- verytallguy on COVID-19: why did a second wave occur even in regions hit hard by the first wave?
- Franktoo on The big ‘cancel’
- JMurphy on The big ‘cancel’
-
Recent Posts
- The big ‘cancel’
- COVID-19: why did a second wave occur even in regions hit hard by the first wave?
- Biden Administration II
- Looking forward: new technologies in the 2020’s
- The relative infectivity of the new UK variant of SARS-CoV-2
- 2020 Year in Review
- Asymptomatic spread(?) of Covid-19
- The blame game
- Week in review – science edition
- Biden administration
- Five rules for evidence communication
- Cultural motivations for wind and solar renewables deployment
- Slower decay of landfalling Hurricanes in a warmer world — really?
- Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS
- U.S. election discussion thread
Categories
Blogroll
Archives
Meta
Search Results for: Nic Lewis
Nic Lewis vs the UK Met Office
by Judith Curry Julia Slingo, Chief Scientist at the UK Met Office, has responded to Nic Lewis’ critique of UK Met Office’s report on the pause.
Posted in Uncategorized
Nic Lewis on the UK Met Office on the pause
by Nic Lewis These comments constitute a response to erroneous statements and misrepresentations made in a report published by the Met Office in July 2013: “The recent pause in global warming (3): What are the implications for projections of future … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry (2018)
by Ross McKitrick Challenging the claim that a large set of climate model runs published since 1970’s are consistent with observations for the right reasons.
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 2
By Nic Lewis In an earlier article here I discussed a Comment on Lewis and Curry 2018 (LC18) by Kevin Cowtan and Peter Jacobs (CJ20), and a Reply from myself and Judith Curry recently published by Journal of Climate (copy … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncategorized
Tagged climate feedback, climate sensitivity
Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 1
By Nic Lewis A comment on LC18 (recent paper by Lewis and Curry on climate sensitivity) by Cowtan and Jacobs has been published, along with our response.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2
by Fred Haynie I conclude that, the IPCC’s model assumptions that long-term natural net rate of accumulation is constant and anthropogenic emission rates are the only contributor to total long-term accumulation of atmospheric CO2, is false.
Posted in Data and observations
Lewis and Curry: Climate sensitivity uncertainty
by Judith Curry Our new paper on climate sensitivity is now published.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncertainty
Climate sensitivity: technical discussion thread
by Judith Curry The Lewis and Crok paper is stimulating much discussion; unfortunately little of it is technical. Lets devote a thread to technical discussion on the issues the raise.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Lewis and Crok: Climate less sensitive to CO2 than models suggest
by Judith Curry Nic Lewis and Marcel Crok have published a new report on climate sensitivity.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
COVID-19: why did a second wave occur even in regions hit hard by the first wave?
By Nic Lewis Introduction Many people, myself included, thought that in the many regions where COVID-19 infections were consistently reducing during the summer, indicating that the applicable herd immunity threshold had apparently been crossed, it was unlikely that a major … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
The relative infectivity of the new UK variant of SARS-CoV-2
By Nic Lewis Key points A new variant, B.1.1.7, of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has recently spread rapidly in England The public health agency’s best estimate of B.1.1.7’s weekly growth rate advantage is 1.51x They mis-convert this in a reproduction number … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
T cell cross-reactivity and the Herd immunity threshold
By Nic Lewis An interesting new paper by Marc Lipsitch and co-authors, “Cross-reactive memory T cells and herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2”, has recently been published.[1] It discusses immunological and epidemiological aspects and implications of pre-existing cross-reactive adaptive immune system memory … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Herd immunity to COVID-19 and pre-existing immune responses
By Nic Lewis I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
COVID-19: evidence shows that transmission by schoolchildren is low
By Nic Lewis Much fuss has been made in the UK, not least by teachers’ unions, about recommencing physical school attendance. As this issue applies to many countries, I thought it worth highlighting research findings in Europe.
Posted in Uncategorized
New paper suggests historical period estimates of climate sensitivity are not biased low by unusual variability in sea surface temperature patterns
By Nic Lewis An important new paper by Thorsten Mauritsen, Associate Professor at Stockholm University[i] and myself has just been accepted for publication (Lewis and Mauritsen 2020)[ii]. Its abstract reads:
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Emergent constraints on TCR and ECS from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
By Nic Lewis This is a brief comment on a new paper[i] by a mathematician in the Exeter Climate Systems group, Femke Nijsse, and two better known colleagues, Peter Cox and Mark Williamson. I note that Earth Systems Dynamics published … Continue reading
Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought – update
By Nic Lewis I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
The progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Sweden: an analysis
By Nic Lewis The course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden is of great interest, as it is one of very few advanced nations where no lockdown order that heavily restricted people’s movements and other basic freedoms was imposed. As … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Did lockdowns really save 3 million COVID-19 deaths, as Flaxman et al. claim?
By Nic Lewis Key points about the recent Nature paper by Flaxman and other Imperial College modellers
Posted in Uncategorized
When does government intervention make sense for COVID-19?
By Nic Lewis Introduction I showed in my last article that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and infectivity of individuals would reduce the herd immunity threshold, in my view probably very substantially, and that evidence from Stockholm County … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought
By Nic Lewis Introduction A study published in March by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson20[1]) appears to have been largely responsible for driving government actions in the UK and, to a fair extent, in the US and … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
A sensible COVID-19 exit strategy for the UK
By Nic Lewis The current approach A study by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson et al. 2020[i]) appears to be largely responsible for driving UK government policy actions. The lockdown imposed in the UK appears, unsurprisingly, to … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Imperial College UK COVID-19 numbers don’t seem to add up
By Nic Lewis Introduction and summary A study published two weeks ago by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson20[1]) appears to be largely responsible for driving UK government policy actions. The study is not peer reviewed; indeed, it … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
COVID-19: Updated data implies that UK modelling hugely overestimates the expected death rates from infection
By Nic Lewis Introduction There has been much media coverage about the danger to life posed by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. While it is clearly a serious threat, one should consider whether the best evidence supports the current degree of … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized