Search Results for: Nic Lewis

by Judith Curry Julia Slingo, Chief Scientist at the UK Met Office,   has responded to Nic Lewis’ critique of UK Met Office’s report on the pause.

By Nic Lewis  Introduction Many people, myself included, thought that in the many regions where COVID-19 infections were consistently reducing during the summer, indicating that the applicable herd immunity threshold had apparently been crossed, it was unlikely that a major … Continue reading →

By Nic Lewis Key points A new variant, B.1.1.7, of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has recently spread rapidly in England The public health agency’s best estimate of B.1.1.7’s weekly growth rate advantage is 1.51x They mis-convert this in a reproduction number … Continue reading →

By Nic Lewis An interesting new paper by Marc Lipsitch and co-authors, “Cross-reactive memory T cells and herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2”, has recently been published.[1] It discusses immunological and epidemiological aspects and implications of pre-existing cross-reactive adaptive immune system memory … Continue reading →

By Nic Lewis I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my … Continue reading →

By Nic Lewis Much fuss has been made in the UK, not least by teachers’ unions, about recommencing physical school attendance. As this issue applies to many countries, I thought it worth highlighting research findings in Europe.

By Nic Lewis I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my … Continue reading →

By Nic Lewis The course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden is of great interest, as it is one of very few advanced nations where no lockdown order that heavily restricted people’s movements and other basic freedoms was imposed. As … Continue reading →

By Nic Lewis Key points about the recent Nature paper by Flaxman and other Imperial College modellers

By Nic Lewis Introduction I showed in my last article that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and infectivity of individuals would reduce the herd immunity threshold, in my view probably very substantially, and that evidence from Stockholm County … Continue reading →

By Nic Lewis The current approach A study by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson et al. 2020[i]) appears to be largely responsible for driving UK government policy actions. The lockdown imposed in the UK appears, unsurprisingly, to … Continue reading →

By Nic Lewis Introduction and summary A study published two weeks ago by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson20[1]) appears to be largely responsible for driving UK government policy actions. The study is not peer reviewed; indeed, it … Continue reading →

By Nic Lewis Introduction There has been much media coverage about the danger to life posed by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. While it is clearly a serious threat, one should consider whether the best evidence supports the current degree of … Continue reading →