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Search Results for: Nic Lewis
Nic Lewis vs the UK Met Office
by Judith Curry Julia Slingo, Chief Scientist at the UK Met Office, has responded to Nic Lewis’ critique of UK Met Office’s report on the pause.
Posted in Uncategorized
Nic Lewis on the UK Met Office on the pause
by Nic Lewis These comments constitute a response to erroneous statements and misrepresentations made in a report published by the Met Office in July 2013: “The recent pause in global warming (3): What are the implications for projections of future … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric CO2
by Fred Haynie I conclude that, the IPCC’s model assumptions that long-term natural net rate of accumulation is constant and anthropogenic emission rates are the only contributor to total long-term accumulation of atmospheric CO2, is false.
Posted in Data and observations
Lewis and Curry: Climate sensitivity uncertainty
by Judith Curry Our new paper on climate sensitivity is now published.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncertainty
Climate sensitivity: technical discussion thread
by Judith Curry The Lewis and Crok paper is stimulating much discussion; unfortunately little of it is technical. Lets devote a thread to technical discussion on the issues the raise.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Lewis and Crok: Climate less sensitive to CO2 than models suggest
by Judith Curry Nic Lewis and Marcel Crok have published a new report on climate sensitivity.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Week in review – science edition
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Posted in Week in review
Critique of the new Santer et al. (2019) paper
by Ross McKitrick Ben Santer et al. have a new paper out in Nature Climate Change arguing that with 40 years of satellite data available they can detect the anthropogenic influence in the mid-troposphere at a 5-sigma level of confidence. … Continue reading
Posted in Attribution
Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?
by Nic Lewis *** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC, Oceans
Climate sensitivity to cumulative carbon emissions
By Nic Lewis An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections. AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Resplandy et al. Part 4: Further developments
By Nic Lewis There have been further interesting developments in this story
Posted in Data and observations, Oceans, Uncertainty
Admitting mistakes in a ‘hostile environment’
by Judith Curry Reflections on Nic Lewis’ audit of the Resplandy et al. paper.
Posted in Sociology of science
Resplandy et al. Part 3: Findings regarding statistical issues and the authors’ planned correction
By Nic Lewis Introduction The Resplandy et al. (2018) ocean heat uptake study (henceforth Resplandy18) is based on measured changes in the O2/N2 ratio of air sampled each year, compared to air stored in high pressure tanks originally sampled in … Continue reading
Posted in Data and observations, Oceans, Uncertainty
Resplandy et al. Part 2: Regression in the presence of trend and scale systematic errors
by Nic Lewis In a recent article I set out why I thought that the trend in ΔAPOClimate was overstated, and its uncertainty greatly understated, in the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake study. In this article I expand on the … Continue reading
Posted in Oceans
A major problem with the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake paper
by Nic Lewis Obviously doubtful claims about new research regarding ocean content reveal how unquestioning Nature, climate scientists and the MSM are.
Posted in Data and observations, Oceans, Uncertainty
Remarkable changes to carbon emission budgets in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C
by Nic Lewis A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights … Continue reading
Posted in climate models, IPCC
Warming patterns are unlikely to explain low historical estimates of climate sensitivity
By Nic Lewis A critique of of a new paper by Andrews et al., Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity.
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks
Hothouse Earth
by Judith Curry We need to raise the bar on how we think about the possible worst case scenario for climate change.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Why Dessler et al.’s critique of energy-budget climate sensitivity estimation is mistaken
By Nic Lewis Plain language summary A new paper by Andrew Dessler et al. claims, based on 100 simulations of the historical period (1850 to date) by the MPI‑ESM1.1 climate model, that estimates of climate sensitivity using the energy-budget method … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity
by Nic Lewis We have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate “The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity“. The paper … Continue reading
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks, Uncategorized
Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity in global models. Part III
by Nic Lewis The two strongest potentially credible constraints, and conclusions.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity: Part II
by Nic Lewis The four constraints that Caldwell assessed as credible.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity: Part I
by Nic Lewis Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity: their nature and assessment of validity.
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
Recent research on aerosol forcing of the CMIP5 models
by Frank Bosse A few days ago a paper (Sato et al) dealing with some aspects of the “Aerosol Cloud Interactions”, (ACI, also called “aerosol indirect effects”) was released. It bolsters the conclusions of earlier papers: the effective radiative forcing … Continue reading
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks
