Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks

Enhanced jet stream waviness induced by suppressed tropical Pacific convection during boreal summer [link]

Quantifying CO2 emissions from rivers and streams [link]

Arctic autumn warming since 2002 dominated by changes in large scale atmospheric circulations [link]

Tropical extreme droughts drive long-term increases in atmospheric CO2 growth rate variability [link]

the vertical structure of the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) and how it varies around the continent and in time [link]

Early Holocene’s Baltic Sea Temperatures Were 5-11°C WARMER THAN PRESENT. [link]

The perspective from space unlocks the amazon water cycle [link]

Amazon rainforest tipping point is looming [link]

The seasonality of oceanic carbon cycling [link]

Unraveling forced responses of extreme El Nino to external forcing over the Holocene [link]

Antarctica has a huge mantle plume beneath it, which might explain why its ice sheet is so unstable: [link]

how anthropogenic aerosols caused a multi-decadal weakening of the Eurasian summer westerly jet [link]

Higher sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean during the last interglacial weakened the South Asian monsoon [link]

The evolution of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since 1980 [link]

Doubling of annual forest carbon loss over the tropics during the early twenty-first century [link]

This is very interesting: Vegetation-based climate mitigation in a warmer and greener World [link]

Tropical teleconnection impacts on #Antarctic climate changes [link]

Long-range prediction and the stratosphere [link]

Observed poleward freshwater transport since 1970 [link]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04370-w

The young earth under the cool sun [link]

Wildfires boost runoff in heavily burned forest basins in the western United States and may affect scarce water resources in western US [link]

Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate-social system [link]

Maybe Mars and Earth didn’t form close to each other [link]

The 20th Century instrumental record of drought is not ‘normal’ for Australia. Antarctic ice cores reveal Australian drought risk worse than thought [link]

Ocean acidification not a problem for fish behavior [link]

The role of atmospheric circulation patterns in attribution of extreme weather events [link]

The enormous hole that whaling left behind [link]

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies remove & sequester carbon from the atmosphere. A new report assesses the benefits, risks, and potential for responsible scale-up of six specific ocean-based CDR strategies. http://ow.ly/G6k550H6nCU

NOAA’s new sea level rise projections for the U.S. are lower than previous [link]

Enigma of expanding Antarctic sea ice [link]

How climate scenarios lost tough with reality [link]

Increase in Arctic coastal erosion and its sensitivity to warming in the 21st century [link]

“Sea-ice retreat suggests re-organization of water mass transformation in the Nordic and Barents Seas” https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27641-6…

Earth’s melting glaciers contain less ice than previously thought [link]

‘interannual Arctic sea ice variations account for less than 10% of the interannual variations in NAO and SPV, and are thus unlikely to drive large seasonal mean impacts in individual winters’ [link]

Climate change (cooling) is bad for epidemics [link]

Policy and technology

U.S. push to export more LNG amid Ukraine crisis slowed by climate concerns [link]

The value of energy security [link]

We’re not facing a global food crisis [link]

India’s wheat exports surge as world prices soar [link]

Designing the mid‐transition: A review of medium‐term challenges for coordinated decarbonization in the United States [link]

Rural backlash against renewables [link]

The transition to clean energy is accelerating [link]

Small is beautiful – climate change science as if people mattered [link]

How much nuclear energy would be needed to replace European natural gas? [link]

What Russia’s invasion of Ukraine mean for energy and climate policies? [link]

The renewable energy policy paradox: [link]

Why avoiding climate change maladaptation is vital [link]

Florida House passes bill to establish climate change resiliency [link]

War in Ukraine: We need to talk about fossil fuels ]link]

Eastern Europe and Russia – The economic disaster we created is forgotten [link]

US corn-based ethanol is worse for the climate than gasoline [link]

The quest for resilience – what could possibly go wrong? [link]

The divergent fates of two community mini-grids in Nigeria illustrate why energy systems should be built to enable economic transformation. [link]

US Nuclear Regulatory Commission cancels previously issued license renewals because of climate change considerations [link]

How to model society’s response to climate change [link]

Green investments [link]

New strategies for resilient water utilities in Sub Saharan Africa [link]

Scientists developed transparent solar cells that can be used in windows and last for 30 years: [link]

New York City is rolling out a new batch of climate resiliency plans to shore up 520 miles of coastline affecting more than 8 million residents, potentially setting the stage for one of the largest infrastructure projects in New York’s history. [link]

“[I]f judgments are made under uncertainty, and the costs of false positive and false negative errors have been asymmetric over evolutionary history, selection should have favored a bias toward making the least costly error.” https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1207/s15327957pspr1001_3…

Nuclear options https://politi.co/33zt4cC

World Bank experts on Central Asia’s looming water crisis – The Third Pole http://dlvr.it/SK3KKl

The global land squeeze [link]

Designing mid-transition: A review of medium-term challenges for coordinated decarbonization in the U.S. [https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/wcc.768

The rise of Greenflation [link]

Its not just climate: Are we ignoring other causes of disasters? [link]

About science and scientists

Trust in science versus trust in scientists [link]

Speaking truth to power and power to truth: reflections from the Covid pandemic [link]

I signed up for journalism. What they taught me was activism. [link]

Changing the intellectual climate [link]

Climate change research and the search for solutions: rethinking interdisciplinarity [link]

Science has a confidence deficit [link]

Why do scientists lie? [link]

How to save science from Covid Politics [link]Climate change enters the therapy room [link]

Rethinking the search for origins of life [link]

192 responses to “Week in review – science edition

  1. Hydrology is hugely variable – attributing change to people not even a little credible.

    The way to protect the Amazon is to ensure that locals have ownership.


  2. ‘The research, led by Dr Tessa Vance from the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership and Dr Anthony Kiem from the University of Newcastle, and involving Australian Antarctic Division scientists, has significant implications for water security and management across Australia and internationally.’ https://www.google.com/search?q=anthony+kiem&rlz=1C1RXQR_en-GBAU936AU936&oq=anthony+kiem&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30.5972j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    Tessa Vance and Anthony Kiem are brilliant researchers who have been doing this work for decades.

    It was wetter in Australia and globally cooler over much of the last millennium.


  3. Pingback: Overview of the week - scientific edition - News7g

  4. The article about modeling society’s response to climate change(https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-to-model-societys-response-to-climate-change?utm_content=buffer7c721&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer) has a diagram with human emissions the only thing effected by or effecting climate change. I don’t think there has been any data that shows causal relationship of human emissions and global temperature. Salby shows that the nature of global temperature change steps are very unlikely caused by a uniformly rising forcing. Berry shows that human emissions have only a small effect on atmospheric CO2.

  5. Re, early Holocene warmer…

    In the words of Henrik Svensmark, “enjoy global warming while it lasts.” Anyone can read in wiki that Earth is currently in an interglacial period of the Quaternary Ice Age and that the last glacial period of the Quaternary ended about 10,000 years ago with the start of the Holocene epoch —i.e., our epoch: back then is when humanity began. It is back then that the Earth’s temperature spiked up out of the ice age it was in (it was warmer back then than it is now) and the global average temperature of the Earth has been slowly declining ever since. For 10,000 years we’ve been heading for another ice age and nobody knows when it will happen —only that one day it will happen again.

    • Yep, to put it succinctly:

      We’re twelve thousand years into a ten thousand year long interglacial, and we’re worried about it getting warmer?

    • Arctic warming and freshening in periods of low NH summer insolation seems to be the mechanism.


    • What is discernable in modern warming is AGW superimposed on Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic dynamics. It’s about 50/50.


      • Much like casting chicken bones to foretell the future…

      • This isn’t foretelling the future but interrogating the past. There is natural variability that is deterministically chaotic and AGW – both implicated in recent warming.

        How can you credibly claim that the world has not warmed in the 40 year UAH series?

      • UAH Data said does not go back 60 years…

      • Obviously but I linked it for obvious reasons. Would you seriously contend that the 20 years before that were warmer?

      • Global warming was higher in the first half of the 20th century than in the second half. Global warming essentially stopped with the introduction of more accurate satellite data…

      • Now there’s a sophisticated analysis. It’s not an oscillation – climate doesn’t have a memory. It’s about half of warming in the last 40 years. The other half is AGW.

        ‘Indeed, the reconstruction of this pair of modes for regional climate indices (Fig. 3b, c) manifests as a multidecadal signal propagating across the climate index network (with certain time delays between different indices)—a so-called stadium wave (refs. 20,35,36,37)—which we will refer to as the global stadium wave (GSW) or, when referring to the global-mean temperature, Global Multidecadal Oscillation (GMO), although, once again, the oscillatory character of this phenomenon is impossible to establish due to shortness of the data record. The phasing of indices in the GSW is consistent with earlier work (ref. 20), which analysed a limited subset of the Northern Hemisphere climate indices (Supplementary Fig. 6). The global-mean temperature trends associated with GSW are as large as 0.3 °C per 40 years, and so are capable of doubling, nullifying or even reversing the forced global warming trends on that timescale.’ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0044-6

      • UK-Weather Lass

        “This isn’t foretelling the future but interrogating the past.” RIE

        Weasle words from the master himself. If we are predicting the future from the pieces of the past we can discern then that is not far removed from tea leaves, crystal balls, and tarot cards. Is the temperature rise due to humans or is it something new we need to learn about?

        We solve crimes with evidence and there is a battle over what is allowable and what is not in order to protect the innocent. In science we expect high standards and quality work but in climate science we know charlatans have been at work and yet we still let them persist.

        In AGW science some very innocent low footprint human beings have been found guilty of outrageously warming the planet and sentenced to unreliable energy at unrealistic prices in order to let seriously guilty others to emit even more emissions because that is the way those regimes like it. These people haven’t even been given a trial, and have been marginalised by virtue signallers who fly in their private jets, travel between their numerous homes, attend their numerous all expenses paid fancy conferences, and dare to tell the rest of us we are wasteful!

        I don’t see any scientific basis to believe any of them, or even reliable evidence to support their claims. I also see a marked reluctance of them to go for sensible objectives (e.g. nuclear) rather than the absolutely ungreen solar and wind which makes me even more suspicious of their motives. Sounds like the kind of interrogations popular with especially nasty and unpleasant regimes past, present, and probably future.

      • Yeah that’s rational.

  6. David Wojick

    My latest on the technology and policy side:
    All the engineering for a huge offshore wind project is secret! Except for the project’s LCOE estimate which is preposterous. This from a public utility.

    • joe the non climate scientist

      DAvid W I concur

      Anyone that relies on an analysis using LCOE is an idiot


      Levelized Avoided Cost of Electricity
      LCOE and LCOS do not capture all of the factors that contribute to actual investment decisions, making direct comparisons of LCOE and LCOS across technologies problematic and misleading as a method to assess the economic competitiveness of various generation alternatives. Figure 1 illustrates the limitations of using LCOE alone.

      • David Wojick

        What makes this case interesting is there is a legal threshold based on estimated LCOE. Below a certain amount the project is approved by law. Above that amount and the project has to be approved by the Virginia regulatory Agency that oversees electric power. No surprise that Dominion’s LCOE estimate is way below the threshold, but it is ridiculously low and the method is a secret.

      • Joe - the non climate scientist

        David – I just looked at the LCOE data from EIA with offshore wind at $120 per WMh. One of the common errors in LCOE analysis is the over estimation of % of capacity usage for renewables. The Dominion estimate of capacity usage is super overestimating on ultra steriods.

        While I havent looked at the computation of costs in the dominion projection, I would highly suspect those costs are greatly understated, especially the maintenance costs.

    • LCOE provides a first cut comparison of electricity generation costs Offshore wind is not cheap. The LCOE here is consistent with industry experience.

      e.g. https://www.iea.org/articles/levelised-cost-of-electricity-calculator

      ‘Despite the capital cost of Dominion Energy Virginia’s 2,640-MW offshore wind farm rising to $10 billion from $8 billion and the levelized cost of energy growing to $87/MWh from $80/MWh, company executives said Nov. 5 that a higher capacity factor will limit the impact on customer bills.’

      The relative value of offshore wind power depends on the amount generated within the the regional energy mix.


  7. To supply all global electricity with nuclear generated energy would require 3000 nuclear reactors. We have 49. To provide transport fuels and industrial and residential heat as well we would need 9,000 reactors. To meet energy demand at the end of the century we would need 31,500 at a cost of some 315 trillion dollars. That’s 400 a year for 80 years. Then there is the 25% of greenhouse emissions from the land sector.

    Obviously we can do just about anything if the technology and the price is right. I guess we would need megafactories churning out modular reactors.

  8. ‘There are plenty of ways to hold the rainwater on the land that can be used in various combinations. Creating retention areas can involve building check dams, swales, terraces, deep plowing along the keylines or using land stewardship techniques such as reforestation, organic farming and special pasture management, e.g. Holistic Planned Grazing.’ https://www.tamera.org/water-retention-landscape/#

    Sand dams in sub-Saharan Africa are small and cheap structures built by villagers across sandy, ephemeral, dryland streams. Like any water infrastructure they require competent design and sound construction. When they work they are brilliant. They have a place with other techniques for retaining water in landscapes and aquifers that is central to modern water management from California:

    e.g. https://aginnovations.org/project/from-storage-to-retention-expanding-californias-options-for-meeting-its-water-needs/

    to Portugal. Getting water management is 80% of the work.

  9. Joe - the non climate scientist

    From the list of articles above – “Antarctica has a huge mantle plume beneath it, which might explain why its ice sheet is so unstable: [link]

    Cherry picking and ignoring inconvenient facts is a hallmark of the climate science realm.
    Skeptical Science – the climate science agenda driven (anti science ) website frequently runs articles regarding the collapsing of the west antarctica glaciers and failing to mention the geothermal activity. Two weeks ago, SkS ran another article and a commentator posted links to studies pointing out the west antarctica geothermal activity. Two very pro climate “anti- real science” quickly and falsely pointed out that the geothermal activity was so trivial as to not be a factor.
    Another commentator on this blog who positions himself as one of the most knowledgable on the catastrophic rising sea levels admitted a few weeks ago that he was unaware of the reasons for the west antarctica unstableness

  10. Each time they write about this it gets worse.

    “ On Top of Everything Else, Nuclear War Would Be a Climate Problem”

    “ If several years of gasoline- and diesel-fueled conventional military operations followed the global destruction, then the permanent consequences for the climate system would be even worse. That would also be true if society tried to rebuild by undertaking a fossil-powered reconstruction—and that would very likely be the case. The ruins of our postwar society would be poorer, and fossil reserves are the easiest energy sources to locate. ”

    Never, ever forget the climate. Remember the climate even at the expense of the billions of souls at risk from the nuclear Holocaust who wouldn’t be around to enjoy the climate.

    Journalism has become a free range insane asylum.

  11. Do not follow Europe over the Green Energy Extremist Policy cliff. Do Not!

    Once hailed as the leader of the free world, the veteran center-right leader has been accused by some of increasing Europe’s reliance on Russian energy and neglecting Germany’s defense in what appeared to be a devastating miscalculation of Putin’s ambitions.

    Merkel’s push for diplomacy and bids to bind regimes to treaties and business contracts now look like “an error”, conservative daily Die Welt, long critical of Merkel, charged.

    “What Germany and Europe have experienced over the last days is nothing short of a reversal of Merkel’s policies of guaranteeing peace and freedom through treaties with despots,” it wrote.

    Over the last decade, Germany’s energy reliance on Russia rose from 36% of its total gas imports in 2014 to 55% currently, with the deal for the controversial Nord Stream 2 signed after the Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.

    That has left Germany nearly helpless to follow allies like the United States and impose an oil and gas embargo against Russia.


  12. How climate scenarios lost tough with reality

    Tough should be touch.

  13. “Giant impact crater in Greenland occurred a few million years after dinosaurs went extinct”

    At 58 million years ago it’s closer to the PETM, I wonder if the two could be linked?

  14. Curious George

    “Enhanced jet stream waviness …” How do they measure waviness, and what is it in the first place? The paper does not tell.

  15. Curious George

    “Scientists developed transparent solar cells that can be used in windows and last for 30 years”
    This feels like a desperation of solar proponents. “A particular problem with solar power stations is that they take up a lot of space, and while cities generally need the most electricity, they have the least amount of space for power plants.” Practical considerations are an anathema for these scientists.

    • Check out the link to the study demanding more interdisciplinary work in climate.

      In one section an example of why to include the humanities and social sciences (including, of course, “indigenous knowledge”) is to introduce equity in the “….land expropriation to make way for solar farms that bring localized problems in the interest of globalized solutions of emission reductions. ”

      That “paper” also notes in passing that a reliance on “numbers” and “facts” in the study of mitigation leads to “reductive” thinking that might result in people still enjoying the use of energy (and- gasp! – have choices). The humanities can fix that:
      “This (reductionism) sends the message that humanity can continue extracting resources and using energy at an ever-accelerating pace without acknowledging that how resources are used will need to change. Even scaling up renewable energy production and use, undoubtedly an important part of the solution to climate change that does not challenge lifestyles and consumption behaviour, can become yet another form of technofix. ”

      To recap- they want the humanities more involved to inform which land is seized for solar panels and to ensure that the amount of land seized is limited in order to force a change lifestyle.

      Nukes? Yikes, unmentioned of course! How can you order a complete change in lifestyle and “consumption behavior” if you allow energy?

  16. Bill Fabrizio

    The Atlantic article calling for adding iron to the oceans to increase food supply for whales is something that deep sea fishing friends of mine in Long Island, NY have been interested in for quite some time. Not only could it help whales, but many other species. The sited paper seems to have a logical formula for the amounts to be used. I find it to be an attractive experiment that should be undertaken. An opportunity for true applied science, actually.

    • How do your friends feel about an armada of wind turbines off Long Island and the impact on the whales? Oh wait, the needs of green energy outweigh those of a few animals.

    • There have been many small attempts to test ocean fertilization.


      Since it is an alternative to more government regulation of the global economy and expanded use of renewables – the Left is opposed to even experiments. No solutions except those that help the Left!

      “ You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that [is] it’s an opportunity to do things that you think you could not before.”
      — Rahm Emanuel, in an nterview to the Wall Street Journal, 19 November 2008.

      • jungletrunks

        Bill: “…adding iron to the oceans to increase food supply for whales”… I like the idea for a number of reasons.

        Larry; I queried about the benefits of artificially creating large algal blooms in remote oceanic dead zones awhile back in hopes of stimulating some discussion; the theory seems compelling enough to at least test its efficacy. A side benefit may create fertile oceans out of former dead zones? Algae produces between 50-85% of Earths oxygen, exploiting it to sequester CO2 seems like at minimum a no brainer worthy experiment, with potentially significant “other” benefits. If the idea worked in small scale, then scale it up massively.

  17. Dr. Curry ==> Still appreciate your eye for interesting and/or important papers and news. Thank you again, for the hundredth time.

  18. Bill Fabrizio

    Pielke Jr and Ritchie said it best: A policy is a prediction.

    • Bill Fabrizio

      And further … As a matter of scientific integrity, however, the reputation of science as a source of uniquely reliable knowledge depends on its internal capacity for self-correction. In the case of the RCPs (as with the example of breast cancer research after 2007), what we are seeing instead amounts to a stubborn commitment to error. This wouldn’t matter if climate scenarios had no implications for the world outside of science. But they lie at the heart of scientific efforts to understand the future of climate change and society’s decisions about how to respond.

      • High economic growth scenarios – earnestly to be desired – if powered by fossil fuels lead to CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere of some 1000 ppm by 2100.

      • Bill Fabrizio

        As you say below … What would be nice is a more nuanced discussion incorporating uncertainty and change.

        And so, again: As a matter of scientific integrity, however, the reputation of science as a source of uniquely reliable knowledge depends on its internal capacity for self-correction.

  19. “The positive phase in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA) have contributed to the increase in the water vapor in the Barents-Kara Sea, while the positive phase in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the PNA are responsible for the increase in the water vapor in the Chukchi Sea.”

    Strange, negative NAO/AO and the associated meridional circulation pattern should allow for increased warm humidity events into the Arctic. The inflection point is from 1995, concomitant with the warming of the AMO.


  20. ‘In the days the preceded these suspensions, Western funds sold down their Norilsk (and other Russian) holdings at the behest of their investors and government authorities.

    “(the government has a) strong expectation that Australian superannuation funds with review their investment portfolios and take steps to divest any holdings in Russian assets” – Josh Frydenberg, Treasurer of Australia.

    The sell-down begs the question of who is the counterparty to these trades?’


    Someone bought world class Russian assets at knock down prices.

  21. Copernicus:
    “The IPCC report AR6 indicates a general consensus that anthropogenic climate change is modifying frequency and intensity of class of extreme events such as cold spells, heatwaves, storms or floods. […] Here, we address this question by performing an attribution of some major extreme events that occurred in 2021 over Europe and North America: the winter storm Filomena, the French Spring cold spell..”

    One could posit that increased climate forcing should reduce cold spell intensity in the mid latitudes through a positive influence on the NAO/AO, but in practice a warmer globe does effectively nothing to inhibit the intensity of such regional cold spells. Because they are dependent on short term changes in indirect solar forcing and not on the global mean surface temperature. The early April 2021 hard cold spell was on my solar based long range forecast, as was the European cold this March.

  22. “Tropical extreme droughts drive long-term increase in atmospheric CO2 growth rate variability”

    That will reverse through the 2030-2050’s when stronger indirect solar forcing drives La Nina regimes.

  23. The NOAA reduced SLR projections have 2 aspects to it to fully understand what is happening on the US East Coast.

    First, the long term rates are affected by Vertical Land Motion. This is a dynamic long known with little controversy. The rates of VLM are up to -2 to 3mm/yr.

    “ As much of North America experiences post-glacial rebound following the Pleistocene Epoch, large sections of the east coast of the United States continue to settle. This phenomenon occurs over the mid-latitudes, including coastal New Jersey through South Carolina, as sections of land that were forced upward (forebulge) by glacial loading to the north experience settlement following the loss of ice mass. Groundwater extraction has also led to increased subsidence rates along the East Coast from New York to Florida, Post glacial settling coupled with continued ground water extraction has resulted in comparatively rapid vertical land movement (VLM) at more than twice the long-term historical rate along large portions of the U.S. Atlantic coastline, exceeding 3 mm/year.”

    But the region is also affected by short term variability in SLR. This has resulted in rates that are far above the GMSLR of 1.73 mm/yr from 1901-2018 as cited in IPCC6, but only on decadal or multi decadal time scales.

    “ While the current analysis is consistent with previous work identifying a recent shift to faster-than-global SLR in the mid-Atlantic region, neither the magnitude of the phenomenon, nor its rate of change, nor its acceleration appear to be beyond the bounds of the 20th century variability”


    “ During 2010–2015, sea level rose rapidly along the U.S. East Coast between Key West and Cape Hatteras, causing extensive flooding to large urban areas such as Miami. Simultaneously, sea level was observed to decline north of Cape Hatteras at an accelerated rate. Here we investigate what caused the rapid sea level changes recorded during 2010–2015 at the U.S. East Coast. In this study, we show that sea level rise recorded between Key West and Cape Hatteras was mostly caused by the warming of waters carried by the Florida Current during 2010–2015, which can raise coastal sea level through thermal expansion of the water column. We also show that sea level decline north of Cape Hatteras was mostly caused by changes in atmospheric conditions, such as by an increase in atmospheric pressure, which affect sea level due to variations in the overall weight of the atmosphere over a certain location, and by changing wind conditions that can pile up, or push ocean water away from the coast.”


  24. ‘The Sierra Clubber’s silence speaks volumes. The San Francisco-based group doesn’t want you to know about the surging opposition to Big Wind — or the growing hostility to Big Solar — in places like Iowa, Virginia, Nevada, Montana, Pennsylvania, and elsewhere. Why not? Because those myriad rejections and restrictions are proof that land-use conflicts are the binding constraint on the expansion of renewable energy development in the U.S.’ https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertbryce/2021/09/26/heres-the-list-of-317-wind-energy-rejections-the-sierra-club-doesnt-want-you-to-see/?sh=4e9008c75bad

  25. 1. Earth’s Without-Atmosphere Mean Surface Temperature calculation

    So = 1.361 W/m² (So is the Solar constant)
    S (W/m²) is the planet’s solar flux. For Earth S = So
    Earth’s albedo: aearth = 0,306

    Earth is a smooth rocky planet, Earth’s surface solar irradiation accepting factor Φearth = 0,47
    (Accepted by a Smooth Hemisphere with radius r sunlight is S*Φ*π*r²(1-a), where Φ = 0,47)

    β = 150 days*gr*oC/rotation*cal – is a Rotating Planet Surface Solar Irradiation INTERACTING-Emitting Universal Law constant
    N = 1 rotation /per day, is Earth’s axial spin
    cp.earth = 1 cal/gr*oC, it is because Earth has a vast ocean. Generally speaking almost the whole Earth’s surface is wet. We can call Earth a Planet Ocean.

    σ = 5,67*10⁻⁸ W/m²K⁴, the Stefan-Boltzmann constant

    Earth’s Without-Atmosphere Mean Surface Temperature Equation Tmean.earth is:
    Tmean.earth= [ Φ (1-a) So (β*N*cp)¹∕ ⁴ /4σ ]¹∕ ⁴ (K)

    Τmean.earth = [ 0,47(1-0,306)1.361 W/m²(150 days*gr*oC/rotation*cal *1rotations/day*1 cal/gr*oC)¹∕ ⁴ /4*5,67*10⁻⁸ W/m²K⁴ ]¹∕ ⁴ =
    Τmean.earth = [ 0,47(1-0,306)1.361 W/m²(150*1*1)¹∕ ⁴ /4*5,67*10⁻⁸ W/m²K⁴ ]¹∕ ⁴ =
    Τmean.earth = ( 6.854.905.906,50 )¹∕ ⁴ = 287,74 K
    Tmean.earth = 287,74 Κ

    And we compare it with the
    Tsat.mean.earth = 288 K, measured by satellites.
    These two temperatures, the calculated one, and the measured by satellites are almost identical.

    The planet mean surface temperature equation
    Tmean = [ Φ (1-a) S (β*N*cp)¹∕ ⁴ /4σ ]¹∕ ⁴ (K)
    produces remarkable results.
    The calculated planets temperatures are almost identical with the measured by satellites.
    Mercury…..325,83 K…..340 K
    Earth……….287,74 K…..288 K
    Moon………223,35 Κ…..220 Κ
    Mars………..213,21 K…..210 K

    The 288 K – 255 K = 33 oC difference does not exist in the real world.
    There are only traces of greenhouse gasses.
    The Earth’s atmosphere is very thin. There is not any measurable Greenhouse Gasses Warming effect on the Earth’s surface.

    There is NO +33°C greenhouse enhancement on the Earth’s mean surface temperature.
    Both the calculated by equation and the satellite measured Earth’s mean surface temperatures are almost identical:
    Tmean.earth = 287,74K = 288 K


  26. Everything started with error
    And here is why.
    The planet’s old effective temperature formula:
    Te = [ (1-a) S / 4 σ ]¹∕ ⁴
    is defined as a planet’s equilibrium temperature in the absence of atmosphere.
    When calculated, the Earth’s Te = 255 K, instead of the satellite measured actual Tmean = 288 K —- the cause was obvious.

    Earth’s surface was considered warmer by +Δ33oC because of the planet Earth’s atmosphere.
    It was error.


  27. “I am an old man now, and when I die and go to heaven there are
    two matters on which I hope for enlightenment. One is relativity/quantum mechanics/quantum electrodynamics [in various versions], and the other is turbulent motion of fluids. About the former I am rather optimistic.” Werner Heisenberg and/or Horace Lamb

    “If you thought that science was certain — well that is just an error on your part.” Richard Feynman

    Quoted from the this article on turbulence. I am pretty certain what isn’t science and I am bored with it. They call them governing equations – but if the equations don’t reflect reality they are not of much use.

    ‘Turbulence is ubiquitous in natural fluids: atmosphere, ocean, lakes, rivers, Earth’s interior, planetary atmospheres and convective interiors, stars, space gases (neutral and ionized), and perhaps even galaxies. From a mathematical perspective, its essential behaviors arise because the
    governing equations of fluid dynamics are a nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) system, the Navier-Stokes equations. Apart from exotic materials with a non-Newtonian molecular rheology and diffusion and/or peculiar equation of state, the validity of Navier-Stokes is not in serious
    dispute, albeit the nature of its solutions is still open to imaginative conjectures. From an accompanying physical perspective, the advection (i.e., movement following fluid parcels moving with the velocity field) causes the generic behavior of the entanglement of neighboring material parcels;
    this causes chaotic evolution, transport, and mixing.’ http://people.atmos.ucla.edu/jcm/turbulence_course_notes/turbulent_flows.pdf

  28. “ When I graduated from Ryerson, the president gave a speech about how, despite the COVID-19 pandemic, students had strived to remain committed to their studies. “Stay close to Ryerson,” he told us, “for together, we will shape the future.” But not all of us want to shape the future. Some of us just want to report on the present in an unvarnished way”

    “…we will shape the future.”

    This was the essence of the “I signed up for journalism” link.

    No, we don’t need you to be shaping the future. There are enough people doing that everywhere else. This young reporter had it right in wanting to just report on the present.

    I read and hear about their desire to help out with the latest cause from reporters all the time. Even if not overtly declared, it seeps through in their language in subtle ways. This attitude is also given away by what they don’t cover.

    Why is it left up to skeptics to raise such obvious questions as why don’t most articles about sea level rise also discuss the historical context of the rise or the cyclical variability or the subsidence that is present in almost all severe coastal flooding?

    All skeptics can name dozens of topics that are a gold mine of questions that could be asked by the media but almost never are.

    Apparently you need to be an old geezer to realize how much journalism has changed in the last 70 years, from when journalists did it the old fashioned way, just reporting the facts.

    • Having once gone through J-school, that story was sad to me. Most of the actual classroom activity was on how to be curious- where do you do the research, how do you interview people, how do you take good notes on what you see and hear, how do you craft good questions, what are solid sources (and how to detect BS). Then how to put it on paper and film- the process.

      This writer describes a very different school- one where he was specifically taught to avoid curiosity and emphasize politics.

      The writer is then poorly educated. The issue is not “viewpoint diversity,” the journalist isn’t supposed to have a “viewpoint” that is either left or right. The journalist is supposed to ask “Is that true, prove it to me? Why do you believe that?”
      This young man was taught by the school to never ask those questions, at all, and the only pushback he can muster is to accept this lack of curiosity but temper it with “viewpoint diversity,” which is the practice of having someone on staff who will never question right-wing people.

  29. The Green New Steal …

    With regard to how all of those renewables will
    be paid for, it is clear that mandates and subsidies
    are driving their deployment. A key finding of this
    report is that between 2010 and 2029, federal tax
    incentives for the wind and solar sectors will total
    $140.3 billion

    Regardless of which academic, political or eco-
    nomic scenario is considered, it’s clear any attempt
    to convert the entire domestic electric grid — not to
    mention the entire economy — to run solely on re-
    newables will require covering vast territories with
    oceans of solar panels and forests of giant wind
    turbines. Further, that effort will have to occur at
    the same time that rural politicians and landowners
    across the U.S. are fighting against the encroach-
    ment of large-scale renewable energy projects.
    These land-use conflicts are the binding con-
    straint on wind and solar energy expansion and
    they are slowing or stopping these developments
    all over the country. Since 2015, according to
    published media stories, about 300 government
    entities have moved to reject or restrict wind ener-
    gy projects (See Figure 1)


  30. Data show California fuel standard’s air pollution reduction benefits the rich, not poor


  31. That’s a big problem. Diesel is the workhorse of the global economy. It keeps trucks and vans, excavators and heavy machinery, freight trains and ships all buzzing. Wholesale and retail diesel prices surged last week to an all-time high, surpassing the peak set in 2008.
    Inflation Fuel

    U.S. average retail diesel price has surged to an all-time high, surpassing the peak set in 2008 during the last commodity boom

    In the U.S., average retail prices have surged above $5 per gallon for the first time ever. In the U.K., it’s selling above 1.70 pounds per liter, equal to more than $8.5 per gallon. The surge matters because of the ubiquity of diesel in modern life. As the fuel of transportation, the price rally will hit everyone, adding to inflationary pressures that are already running at a multi-decade high. More than the cost of oil, skyrocketing diesel prices should be the main worry of central banks.

    The dire diesel supply situation predates the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While global oil demand hasn’t yet reached its pre-pandemic level, global diesel consumption surged to a fresh all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2021. The boom reflects the lopsided Covid economic recovery


  32. CAMARILLO, Calif. (AP) — The average U.S. price of regular-grade gasoline shot up a whopping 79 cents over the past two weeks to a record-setting $4.43 per gallon (3.8 liters) as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is contributing to already-high prices at the pump.

    Prices at the pump were rising long before Russia invaded Ukraine as post-lockdown demand has pushed prices higher. Crude prices plummeted in early 2020 as economies around the world shut down because of COVID-19 — the price of futures even turned negative, meaning some sellers were paying buyers to take oil. Prices rebounded, however, as demand recovered faster than producers pulled oil out of the ground and inventories dried up.


  33. On a lighter note….

    Science has a new form of measurement:

    “Asteroid half the size of a giraffe strikes Earth off the coast of Iceland”


    Many people having lots of fun with this one. My favorite sarcastic comment (from twitter): “this is a reasonable yard stick. I just ordered two giraffes of mulch for my garden, so I don’t see why people are making fun of this.”

    • It appears that the giraffe is a unit of distance rather than mass.

      I propose that, henceforth, in a show of respect to modern science, all sea level discussions be presented in giraffes: ie: “It would require only a SLR of .8 giraffe +/- a parasite-eating bird to inundate Miami.”

    • Jeff, wait. You didn’t specify if this is a metric giraffe or imperial one?

      • Serengeti system

        We’ll be measuring solar panel output in Wildebeest.
        Josh has a 6WdBeest panel array attached to a 1WdB battery backup system that provides 15 seconds of mid-afternoon toaster operation before the 4HP gasoline generator kicks on (burning one liter every 5 hours).

        Don’t forget to install the solar panels 1.6 giraffes from any trees! And add support to your rafters for rooftop installation- those things can weigh over .6 Eland!

  34. Matthew R Marler

    from the abstract to the autumn arctic warming: In this study, we reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics of the 2 m air temperature (t2m), clear-sky downward longwave radiation (CDLW), and water vapor in the Arctic and the mechanism affecting the change in the autumn LW-WV. Since 2002, not only have the temporal variations in regional t2m, CDLW, and water vapor been synchronous at the interdecadal scale, but their largest spatial variations have also mainly been located in the Barents-Kara Sea and the Chukchi Sea. A diagnosis of the atmospheric moisture budget shows that the change in the water vapor divergence is dominated by the change in the mean circulation dynamics in the Barents-Kara Sea, while the change in the thermodynamics caused by the changes in the local specific humidity and the mean circulation dynamics are both important to the change in the water vapor divergence in the Chukchi Sea.

    The design seems not to untangle causation: does warming cause the increase in downwelling LWIR related to water vapor increase, or is it the other way around?

  35. Matthew R Marler

    Judith, thank you again for this collection of readings.

  36. Matthew R Marler

    Amazon rainforest tipping point is looming [link]

    Is that news? It has been forecast regularly since at least the early 1970s.

  37. Michael Shellenberger is making a second run for governor of California:


  38. Democratic governments are free to do what they like – even 100% wind and solar if they have the numbers. Let me suggest a more realistic nuclear power scenario as an alternative. 140 coal generation plants in the US are scheduled to close by 2040. The economic choice at the moment is natural gas. If new nuclear were cost competitive it might be a rational choice to keep the economy firing.

    The UK has just announced a tender for a high temperature gas cooled advanced modular reactor prototype by the end of the decade.

    ‘According to the overview published by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS): “The aim of the Programme is to demonstrate that HTGRs can produce high temperature heat which could be used for low-carbon hydrogen production, process heat for industrial and domestic use and cost-competitive electricity generation, in time for any potential commercial AMRs to support Net Zero by 2050.’


    Quite by chance General Atomics and Framatome are developing just such an advanced modular reactor (AMR) on just that timetable.

    ‘SAN DIEGO, (Oct. 13, 2020) – General Atomics Electromagnetic Systems (GA-EMS) announced today that it is collaborating with Framatome Inc. to develop a new helium-cooled 50-Megawatt electric (MWe) Fast Modular Reactor (FMR) concept that will produce safe, carbon-free electricity and can be factory built and assembled on-site, which will reduce costs and enable incremental capacity additions. The GA-EMS led team will be able to demonstrate the FMR design as early as 2030 and anticipates it being ready for commercial use by the mid-2030s.’ https://www.ga.com/general-atomics-and-framatome-collaborate-to-develop-a-fast-modular-reactor

    It’s brilliant technology. Here’s a description from GA of it 250 MWe version.


    In politics the kudos go to those who can see which way the wind is blowing.

    • Geoff Sherrington

      RIE notes that “Democratic governments are free to do what they like”
      Some of us think that democratic governments have the prime purpose of representing the will of the people. Geoff S

  39. What really will happen – burn more coal.

    The U.K. held exploratory talks with Electricite de France SA about the possibility of keeping the West Burton A coal-fired power plant generating beyond the end of September, when it’s due to close.


  40. What will really happen is that these plants will reach their economic use by date and need to be replaced. New coal plants cannot compete. Nor will international natural gas prices – much higher than in the US – fall precipitously. And American prices will rise as firms by economic necessity chase exports. These are high cost sources of fossil fuels and need high prices to exist. One thing is certain – the big boys are out for themselves and that’s what’s happening now.


    ‘Fracking is unlikely to be the answer. Although this has proved remarkably successful in the US, where it currently delivers 50% of domestic oil production, and 60% of dry natural gas, it is debatable for how much longer this can be sustained. Fracking works well in terms of finding oil or gas, yet the initial (relatively large) production declines precipitously within a year or two. The likely prospects for shale exploitation more widely across the world are also largely unconfirmed.’ https://www.chemistryworld.com/opinion/why-fracking-isnt-the-answer-to-the-peak-oil-crisis/3009956.article

    Nuclear reactors can provide a lifetime of energy from a fuel source the size of a Rubik’s cube. New nuclear could make economic sense and diversification of energy sources avoids putting all the eggs in one basket.

  41. Geoff Sherrington

    To supplement the excellent reading list from Judith, here is a beautiful movie of 2 hours that has exquisite photography that lingers in shapes and colours and patterns in Nature that inform those with deep interests in the wonders of mathematics and science of some natural processes.
    I have Robert Ellison in mind, because of his expressed interest in such topics and because 2 hours of viewing might keep him from overloading the Climate Etc comments section.
    As for me, I have made two concessions. First, the use here of the word “inform” in a politically correct, trendy manner with which I disagree; and second, the promotion of an out-and-out green propaganda movie, albeit from 2009, on its visual merits. About these merits, I have judged national photographic competitions, so I do have a start point for these comments. It is stunning work. As for the sound track, best to turn it to minus 11 or otherwise face repeated chunder sessions. It’s better than ipecac.
    What do you think of it, RIE? Geoff S

  42. America is sitting on untapped energy reserves equal to 5 times global oil reserves. Why aren’t you more excited about this?


  43. Five years on, Snowy 2.0 emerges as a $10 billion white elephant

    “Five years ago on Tuesday, then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull announced, with great fanfare, the Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro project: “The Turnbull Government will start work on an electricity game-changer … This plan will increase the generation of the Snowy Hydro scheme by 50 per cent, adding 2000 megawatts of renewable energy to the National Electricity Market (NEM).”

    Senate Estimates papers confirm the announcement was cobbled together in less than two weeks after the concept was floated by Snowy Hydro.

    The nation-building vision was for a big battery to be added to the Snowy Mountains Hydro-Electric Scheme. It was to be completed in four years (that is, by last year) at a cost of $2 billion without any taxpayer subsidy, bring down electricity prices, generate renewable energy and incur minimal environmental impact on Kosciuszko National Park.

    Inspiring stuff. But not one of these grand claims has turned out to be true. Worse, Australian taxpayers and NSW electricity consumers will be up for billions of dollars in subsidies and increased electricity costs, all while Kosciuszko is trashed. Let’s have a quick recap.

    Snowy Hydro now expects completion in 10 years, not four, by 2026. Some experts consider even this extended timeframe to be optimistic. Construction of the tunnels is running at least six months behind the latest schedule and the transmission connection is unlikely to be built by 2026 anyway. The all-up cost has increased at least five-fold, to $10 billion-plus, as energy experts warned the Prime Minister and the then NSW premier in 2020.”

    … cont.

    read the rest of the article here: https://www.smh.com.au/national/five-years-on-snowy-2-0-emerges-as-a-10-billion-white-elephant-20220310-p5a3ge.html

  44. Geoff will be relieved. I’ve found something better to do with my time than comment on CE. Sitting in my car on a headland over a small bay in Central Queensland. Eating mackerel in batter and listening to country and wester. Imagine that? Something better than CE?

    Another thought on General Atomics. That plan as long ago as 2012 was to have a fuel core manufacturing facility by about now. They recently – in concert with Framatome – unveiled a refurbished TRIGA fuel facility. There were 66 TRIGA reactors – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRIGA – in the world – many still operating including 18 in the good ole USA. They are both private companies so they don’t have to tell us what the are doing – but I suspect that’s where the fuel cores for the new models will come from. I’ll ask. General Atomics and Framatome combined have a fuel core design experience of 100 years. The fuel core design is what makes it special. There is oodles of research and development gone into it. It required development and testing of new and improved 21st century materials.

    • Curious George

      If the team has 10 members, the actual combined design experience is 1,000 years. I don’t know what they are doing, but one thing they are not doing is an electricity production.

  45. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Why will La Niña’s continue? Observations indicate that the warm subsurface wave will not reach the eastern Pacific before fall. As solar activity increases the polar vortex to the south should be strong, so there should be stronger latitudinal winds, thus maintaining the current circulation over the equator.

  46. I’m holding my positions on the NYSE. Groan. I’m long on Kubernetes – the open source environment of cloud computing. With containers that are virtual computers floating around doing things. All sorts of things tremendously efficiently.

    My ASX shares are up 4% today. Different sector. I like to focus on miners and refiners with massive ore resources and low costs. In terms of miner and refiners – right now I’m into rare earths, lithium, cobalt, tantium… But there are many more in growing demand I am belatedly discovering. As far as I know – and I’m sure there was a bit more planning – we just happen to have numbers of world class mineral resources coming on line. And now does seem a time to buy down to earth projects instead of more cloud.

    Oh – and north Australian beef. We all love a good BBQ. Lots of beautiful savanna country. Did you know that savanna stores much more carbon if burnt properly at the right times? Better for cows too. It’s an old abo trick. Old as time.

    • Geoff Sherrington

      Go for the.Tantalum, Niobium etc deposit at Toongi near Dubbo NSW, that is one I found when using energy dispersive XRF on unusual rocks that I encouraged our geologists to send in for scanning. So you can make some gains, courtesy Geoff S

      • ‘The Toongi trachyte is one of a number of alkaline bodies which form part of a relatively extensive alkaline volcanic complex in the Dubbo region, composed of both intrusive and extrusive trachytic rocks, which in turn are related to the major Eastern Australian alkaline igneous event. It intrudes into and overlies a flat lying sequence of interbedded sandstone and siltstone of the Triassic Napperby Formation.’ http://www.portergeo.com.au/database/mineinfo.asp?mineid=mn1396

        Interesting. Thanks.

  47. The “cheapest” Tesla is now about $47,000. A good chunk of the price of a house in many places.

    Tesla Inc. raised prices on all its vehicles after Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said costs were increasing at the companies he runs.

    The cheapest Model 3 in the U.S. is now $46,990, according to Tesla’s website. The company raised prices by 3% to 5% in both the U.S. and China, Dan Levy, a Credit Suisse analyst, said in a note to clients.


  48. In all of 2020 and 2021 South Korea had 630,000 cases of COVID19.

    In the last 3 days they had 1M+ cases.

    • Joe - the non epidemiologist

      CKid – Viet nam is having similar spike in cases. Eventually everywhere is going to end up at the same place with all the mitigation only delaying the inevitable.

      • I have been wondering about that myself in a number of countries.

        We might never know the actual facts about China but we do know they are having lockdowns. It might be generations before the world knows the whole truth about what China is going through.

        Stalin’s death opened the books up a little bit. Not all that different in China.

    • Bill Fabrizio

      Have you seen the 28 day cases and fatalities for USA? Why such high fatality numbers? I would assume there’s a lag in fatalities as cases decrease. Just still seems high.

      • Joe - the non epidemiologist

        Bill F – previously I was generally comfortable with the data (with the minor exception that the deaths from covid vs deaths with covid were probably slightly over stated by 3%-5%, a relatively minor over statement. (not the 20-30% claimed by many hard right people).

        That being said, I am now a lot less comfortable with the reasonableness of the death rates attributed to the unvaxed. Further, I think most all the health authorities are fully aware that the death rates for the unvaxed are highly inflated.

        First, the current crop of death from covid is mostly from the omicron strain which is a much less deadly strain than the delta strain.
        Secondly, the average daily death rate for the 65+ age group was running around 50 per 100k during the peak of the Nov 2020 – Jan 2021 wave which was a time period in which very no one was vaxed – ie near 100 unvaxed population. However, the reported average daily death rate for the “unvaxed ” during the Nov 2021-Jan 2022 was around 200-230 per 100k, or approx 4x-4.5x times the daily death rate during the comparable peak one year earlier.

        Note this is primarily data from the MN DOH which is reasonably comparable across most all the US states.

        Its highly unlikely for a virus to become 4x deadlier and implausible with the strain becomes less deadly.

      • Bill Fabrizio

        Thanks, Joe.

      • Joe - the non epidemiologist

        Bill F – I will add the comment that almost every health authority knows the death rate for the unvaxed is highly inflated. A grasp of basic math should have raised questions – Should have been obvious, the pool of unvaxed was too small to support the raw number of deaths attributable to the unvaxed. 90+% of the deaths have been in the age 65+ group and that group was 90+% vaxed – so how could the death rate be so high for such a small pool of people? Again the inflated death rate of the unvaxed should have been obvious

      • Hi Bill

        In mid February the new deaths were about 3,000 and they have steadily dropped to 900 as of yesterday. I suspect that trend will continue for the next few weeks. Looks like no more spikes here until next winter. Then the question is whether most of the deaths will be in the nursing homes as they are during a more normal flu season. The lingering question even into next winter will be the same that has been asked from the very start, how many died with COVID19 versus from COVID19. I’m not sure the same standards to answer that question were used across the states.

        We might never know.

      • Bill Fabrizio

        Hey Kid … Thanks for the good news.

        I only glance at the Johns Hopkins data now and then. The number of deaths in the last 28 days (ending March 13th) for the USA surprised me, not only in reference to the number of new infections (considering lag and ‘from & with’) but compared to other countries. And, Omicron is considered more infectious but less deadly. I’m sure there are some valid inferences that can be had from the data, but what a morass!

        I am NOT a statistician. But … the only boundaries for play, that I see, are infection rates (not overall infection numbers as edimbukvarec points out) and excess deaths. What am I missing, which I’m sure is quite a lot?

        How do you guys see bases for (valid?) conclusions being presented in the future?

      • Hi Bill

        Any more analysis on the future is out of my lane and above my pay grade. Given some of the most well known professionals have been wrong I don’t think I could contribute anything.

        I should note that this morning South Korea reported 620,000 new cases in just 1 day. That nearly equals the total reported in all of 2020 and 2021.
        They are now up to 8.2 million total cases. Even if the rate drops it seems they will hit 10 million in a week.

        They have a fully vaccinated rate of 86%.


      • South Korea, where you can’t have gatherings of more than six people, mask mandates are still in place inside and outside, curfews are still in place, and vaccination rates are high, just recorded their highest case-count day yet at over 620,000.

        In one day.

        1.2% of the nation caught Covid yesterday.

        They are about to end all the restrictions, by the way.


  49. The Green Energy Extremists promised a Green Utopia, instead Europe got a Mean Green Nightmare. The Green Energy Extremists don’t care if you lose your job, your house, or your dignity. Eat insects, they say! Get rid of fossil fuels, they say. They need to be flushed down the toilet of history!

    Record energy prices could “wipe out” entire value of pay rises this year

    TUC calls for urgent action to help struggling households

    Years of weak wage growth and cuts to social security have left families “badly exposed” to soaring prices, says union body

    Energy bills were already rising at twice the speed of wages before new cap was announced, analysis reveals

    Energy bills are set to rise at least 14 times faster than wages this year, according to new TUC analysis published today (Saturday).

    The analysis shows that while gas and electricity bills are set to increase by 54 per cent when the price cap set by Ofgem is increased in April, by contrast average weekly wages are set to rise by just 3.75 per cent per cent in 2022.

    The TUC estimates that record-high energy prices could wipe out the entire value of pay rises this year.


  50. Fingers crossed!!!

    A new poll released Tuesday from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) found minority voters have been hit hardest by inflation, with some saying they will vote Republican in the midterms as their pockets are squeezed.

    The poll found overall 58% of participants feel inflation is causing them major financial stress. When broken down among demographics, 35% of black, Hispanic, Asian-American and other minority voters expressed feeling the pain of inflation, compared to 28% of white voters. Among those polled, 44% of black women and Hispanic men reported the highest proportion of major strain among demographic and gender combinations.


  51. angech
    “We cannot compare the planet Te and planet Tmean,
    If you know both temperatures then you can compare them
    What you should say is that are usually different to each other.”

    Yes, they are different to each other.
    And here is why:
    !). Planet doesn’t reflect as a disk, but as a sphere.
    the not reflected portion of incident SW solar flux is not
    2). Planet doesn’t absorb the the not reflected portion of incident SW solar flux.
    What planet does is to interact with the not reflected portion of incident SW solar flux.
    When interacting with matter, only a fraction of the not reflected portion of incident SW solar flux is accumulated in inner layers in form of HEAT.
    3). Also, the planet mean surface temperature Tmean is amplified by the Planet Surface Rotational Warming Phenomenon.


    • CV “We cannot compare the planet Te and planet Tmean”
      “If you know both temperatures then you can compare them
      What you should say is that are usually different to each other.”
      CV “Yes, they are different to each other.”

      Now add, so we can compare them.

      “Planet doesn’t reflect as a disk, but as a sphere.”
      Asking a bit much of science and optics there.

      Salient points are both a sphere and a disc technically receive the same amount of radiation per exposed surface area.
      The radiation does not know it is hitting a molecule on a flat or a curved surface.
      Reflected energy is the same for both.
      That is the amount reflected by a sphere [actual]
      is the same as an equivalent disc [imagined] by definition.

      the not reflected portion of incident SW solar flux is not
      “(1-a)S but Φ(1-a)S” gobbledygook.

      Φ ΦΦ ΦΦΦ ΦΦΦΦ ??? which Φ do you mean units and value please.

      2). “The Planet doesn’t absorb the the not reflected portion of incident SW solar flux, it interacts with the not reflected portion of incident SW solar flux.”

      More gobbledygook. The words absorbing and interacting here are equivalent until you explain why they are different. Absorbing is an interaction.

      “When interacting with matter, only a fraction of the not reflected portion of incident SW solar flux is accumulated in inner layers in form of HEAT.”

      • Clyde Spencer

        “The radiation does not know it is hitting a molecule on a flat or a curved surface.
        Reflected energy is the same for both.”

        Not really! For a sphere with an atmosphere, light rays perpendicular to the surface experience the least absorption and scattering in the air, and light rays parallel experience the most, with 100% reflectance. For specular reflectance, such as with water, the angle of incidence determines the reflectance.

    • Thank you, angech, for your respond.
      “The words absorbing and interacting here are equivalent until you explain why they are different. Absorbing is an interaction.”

      Yes absorbing is an interaction. But interaction includes absorbing.
      Interaction is not only absorbing.


    • angech
      “Salient points are both a sphere and a disc technically receive the same amount of radiation per exposed surface area.
      The radiation does not know it is hitting a molecule on a flat or a curved surface.
      Reflected energy is the same for both.
      That is the amount reflected by a sphere [actual]
      is the same as an equivalent disc [imagined] by definition.”

      “Reflected energy is the same for both.”
      It is a very mistaken assumption. For smooth surface spheres there is a very strong specular reflection.
      And that is why the Φ -factor is so much necessarily needed.
      I have explained everything about the Φ -factor in many pages in my site.


      • I have explained everything about the Φ -factor in many pages in my site.
        Write english.
        name your factor and explain what is in a few words why should a name and explanation take many pages, unless it is wrong.

      • angech, I have posted the “Earth’s without-atmosphere mean surface temperature calculation” in present “Week in Review”.

      • “Reflected energy is the same for both.”
        It is a very mistaken assumption.
        For smooth surface spheres there is a very strong specular reflection.

        Energy either reflects or interacts with matter.
        Reflected energy does not interact.
        The amount of energy reflected from a sphere [real] is measured.
        The amount of energy ascribed to the disc [ unreal] is exactly the same as it is specified by the comparison of a sphere [real] to a disc [imagined for the maths].

        There is no disc there in a real sense for your argument.
        You are arguing about a discworld, a figment of a science fantasy author’s mind which you are equating to how a real disc would function. Stop it.
        The amount of energy on the sphere is known, is real, is effected by albedo.
        It is transferred as a mathematical exercise to a disc which is given the property of reflecting that exact amount of energy.
        Specular or not on the sphere makes no difference to the amount of reflected energy and hence no effect on the amount assigned to be reflected from the imaginary disc.
        That is why it is described as the same for both.
        It is not an assumption. It is a fact.

      • angech
        “The amount of energy on the sphere is known, is real, is effected by albedo.
        It is transferred as a mathematical exercise to a disc which is given the property of reflecting that exact amount of energy.
        Specular or not on the sphere makes no difference to the amount of reflected energy and hence no effect on the amount assigned to be reflected from the imaginary disc.
        That is why it is described as the same for both.
        It is not an assumption. It is a fact.”

        No, it is not a fact. That is why the effective temperature for Moon is so much higher Te =271K, than the satellite measured Moon’s mean surface temperature Tsat = 220K.
        It is because they have not considered the Moon’s specular reflection.
        As a result the theoretical Te for Moon was overestimated by 271K – 220K = 51oC.


      • “I have explained everything about the Φ -factor in many pages in my site.”
        Write it in English.
        Name your factor and explain what is in a few words why should a name and explanation take many pages, unless it is wrong.

        “The amount of energy on the sphere is known, is real, is effected by albedo.
        It is transferred as a mathematical exercise to a disc which is given the property of reflecting that exact amount of energy..
        That is why it is described as the same for both.
        It is not an assumption. It is a fact.”

        “No, it is not a fact.” Explain why a fact is not a fact.

        ” That is why the effective temperature for Moon is so much higher Te =271K, than the satellite measured Moon’s mean surface temperature Tsat = 220K.
        It is because they have not considered the Moon’s specular reflection.
        As a result the theoretical Te for Moon was overestimated by 271K – 220K = 51oC”

        Both the earth and the moon receive the same amount of radiation per square meter. 1361 W/M2 fact.

        Both [reflection and emissions added] send 1361 W/M2 back into space per meter of disc or a quarter of this averaged over a sphere or half of this per meter averaged over a hemisphere. fact

        The albedo of the moon 0.11
        The albedo of earth 0.306 fact.

        Specular radiation does not change this. Fact

        The TE of the moon Te 270.4 C and that of the earth is Te 254 C due to the difference in the amount of light reflected only. Fact.

        The Tmean and the Te for the moon surface are both measured at the moon surface as with virtually no atmosphere They are at the same level which is therefore the Moons TOA
        The T mean is lower because the moon surface respective to the sun rotates extremely slowly hence the average of the cold and hot side surfaces is always lower than Te. Fact

        The Tmean and Te for the earth or any planet with an atmosphere are measured at different levels.
        A square meter at the earth surface is much larger at the Te height at the TOA.
        Hence the surface of the earth radiates more energy per square meter and is hotter than the TE at the TOA where it is measured.

        This is why the Earth is 33 degrees warmer.
        It has an atmosphere with GHG whose absorption and emission profiles exactly match that needed to make the temperature differential occur.
        Exactly. Fact

        That is why we have radiative science and are able to measure temperatures from satellites. Fact

        This would happen whether the planet is rotating or not. Fact

        A rotating planet helps push the Tmean up to the Te for an airless planet
        A rotating air planet is warmer than an airless planet at the surface
        The Te does not change for an airless or air planet

        Note the following conundrum or corollary and proof 17/3/2022.

        Theoretically we could try imagine an atmospheric planet with a Te less than the Tmean.
        All planets with no atmosphere have a Te higher than the Tmean.
        All planets with an atmosphere should have a Te lower than the Tmean
        Where does the crossover point occur?
        The ingenious answer to this must be as soon as one designates a planet to have an atmosphere.
        The Te must rise above the surface of the air planet yet fall below the Tmean of the the surface whether it is rotating or not.
        This means that the TOA will always be higher in a rotating air planet.

      • Thank you, angech, for your respond.
        It is very important what we do here discussing. I very much appreciate your answers. I am preparing now my answer.
        Thank you again.

      • angech
        “All planets with no atmosphere have a Te higher than the Tmean.”

        Exactly the opposite happen. All planets and moons without-atmosphere have a Te lower than the Tmean.

        I have prepared a Table of All Planets’ and Moon’s Temperatures in my site.
        Please visit.
        Link: https://www.cristos-vournas.com/446393385

      • angech “All planets with no atmosphere have a Te higher than the Tmean.”

        Christos Vournas
        “Exactly the opposite happens. All planets and moons without-atmosphere have a Te lower than the Tmean.”

        Could you explain this comment of yours?
        It seems to contradict your assertion?

        Christos Vournas | March 16, 2022 at 6:12 am |
        That is why the effective temperature for Moon is so much higher
        Te =271K, than the satellite measured Moon’s mean surface temperature Tsat = 220K.

      • Thank you, angech, for your respond.

        “angech “All planets with no atmosphere have a Te higher than the Tmean.”

        Christos Vournas
        “Exactly the opposite happens. All planets and moons without-atmosphere have a Te lower than the Tmean.”

        Could you explain this comment of yours?
        It seems to contradict your assertion?

        Christos Vournas | March 16, 2022 at 6:12 am |
        That is why the effective temperature for Moon is so much higher
        Te =271K, than the satellite measured Moon’s mean surface temperature Tsat = 220K.”

        The Te is a mathematical abstraction. And, also, it is a wrongly estimated mathematical abstraction.
        The not reflected portion of incident SW solar flux should not be considered as
        but as

        Φ – the dimensionless Planet solar irradiation accepting factor (a planet surface spherical shape and planet surface roughness coefficient)
        Φ is Φ =0,47 for smooth surface planets and moons without-atmosphere, or with thin atmosphere (Earth included).
        Those planets and moons are
        1. Mercury.
        2. Moon.
        3. Earth.
        4. Mars.
        5. Europa (of Jupiter)
        6. Ganymede (of Jupiter).

        For the rest planets and moons the Φ =1.
        The only exception is Triton (of Neptune). For Triton Φ is somewhere in between 0,47 and 1.

        When calculating Moon’s Te correctly, by correctly estimating the Moon’s the not reflected portion of incident SW solar flux as
        Φ(1 – a)So
        and in the formula:
        Moon’s Corrected Effective Temperature is Te.corrected.moon = 223,83 Κ

        To calculate Moon’s Corrected Effective Temperature we should use the following data values
        σ = 5,67*10⁻⁸ W/m²K⁴, the Stefan-Boltzmann constant
        Φ = 0,47 solar irradiation accepting factor (dimensionless)
        a = 0,11 Moon’s surface average albedo
        So = 1.361 W/m², solar flux on the top of the Moon

        Moon’s Corrected Effective Temperature Equation Te.correct.moon:
        Te.correct.moon = [ Φ (1-a) So /4σ ]¹∕ ⁴
        Te.correct.moon = [ 0,47 (1-0,11) 1.362 W/m² /4*5,67*10⁻⁸ W/m²K⁴ ]¹∕ ⁴ =
        Te.correct.moon = [ 0,47 (0,89) 1.362 W/m² /4*5,67*10⁻⁸ W/m²K⁴ ]¹∕ ⁴ =
        Te.correct.moon = [ 2.510.168.871,25 ]¹∕ ⁴ =
        Te.correct.moon = 223,83 Κ

        The Te.correct.moon =223,83K which is close to the Tmean.moon =220K

        And this time we can follow with your comment:
        “The T mean is lower because the moon surface respective to the sun rotates extremely slowly hence the average of the cold and hot side surfaces is always lower than Te. Fact.”

        For the even more extremely slow rotating Mercury, Te.correct =364K, and Tmean =340K the difference is much more obvious.

        Thank you again.

      • Christos Vournas on| March 16, 2022 you stated.
        “That is why the effective temperature for Moon is so much higher Te =271K,
        than the satellite measured Moon’s mean surface temperature Tsat = 220K.”

        Then you stated the exact opposite.

        Christos Vournas | March 17, 2022 at 3:42 am |
        “All planets and moons without-atmosphere have a Te lower than the Tmean.”

        Finally you argue
        Christos Vournas | March 18, 2022 at 3:55 am |
        “The Te is a mathematical abstraction.
        it is a wrongly estimated mathematical abstraction”.

        Nowhere previously did you state that the term Te [used by everyone] could have a totally different value to its accepted value.
        You made great store out of trying to show how different it was to a Tmean for a surface.
        Despite tossing in your favorite factor which you admit does not work for one moon [Feynman – one obvious wrong result invalidates a theory]
        You adjust and estimate a new impossible Te Moon’s Corrected Effective Temperature = 223,83 Κ which unfortunately for your comment is still higher than the Tmean Moon’s mean surface temperature Tsat = 220K.

        Despite your best efforts
        “All planets and moons without-atmosphere have a Te lower than the Tmean.”
        is and always will be wrong.

        I have given up admiring your fortitude.
        Science is more than a theory that only works when you want it to work.

      • angech,
        Thank you for your respond.

        angech | March 18, 2022 at 9:35 am |

        “Nowhere previously did you state that the term Te [used by everyone] could have a totally different value to its accepted value.”

        Yes, I did state about it previously. The last time was:
        Christos Vournas | February 14, 2022 at 3:27 am |

        I have stated there about the
        Earth’s Without-Atmosphere Corrected Effective Temperature calculation Te.correct.earth = 210 Κ

        Thank you again,

      • angech
        “Despite tossing in your favorite factor which you admit does not work for one moon [Feynman – one obvious wrong result invalidates a theory]”.

        It is the value of Φ for Triton, the moon of Neptune, you mention here.
        Yes, I admit, I am not able to estimate Triton’s the exact value of Φ.
        It doesn’t invalidate the theory though…

        Now, let’s have a look at two of Jupiter’s moons:
        Io has satellite measured Tmean =110K
        Ganymede has satellite measured Tmean =110K
        They both have the same satellite measured Tmean =110K.

        Io has Bond Albedo a =0,63
        Te =95,16K
        Canymede has Bond Albedo a =0,41
        Te =108,7K

        Europa and Calisto are also Jupiter’s moons.

        Europa has Bond Albedo a =0,63 (the same as Io)
        Te =95,16K (the same as Io of course)
        But the satellite measured mean surface temperature for Europa is Tmean =102K (much less than the Tmean =110K for Io).

        Calisto has Bond Albedo a =0,22
        Te = 114,26K
        Tmean =134±11 K

        “Despite your best efforts
        “All planets and moons without-atmosphere have a Te lower than the Tmean.”
        is and always will be wrong.”

        How you can tell it is always will be wrong, when it isn’t? It is almost the same for a slow rotating Moon and it is significantly less for Mercury. But Mercury, respective to the sun, is an extremely slow rotating planet.
        So, how you may conclude it is always will be wrong?
        All planets and moons without-atmosphere have a Te lower than the Tmean.

        Thank you again.

      • CV

        “So, how you may conclude it is always will be wrong?
        All planets and moons without-atmosphere have a Te lower than the Tmean.”

        All planets etc without atmosphere have by definition their TOA at surface level when ever aged out
        Thus the Te is always the highest value when averaged out over the same area.

        The T mean is always lower because the energy distribution is uneven and when averaged out is equal but the temperatures when averaged out from those uneven energy amounts is lower(SB),
        Rotation only partially smooths out the energy distribution.
        Since the energy distribution is alway unequal the average temperature must always be lower than the Te.

        Logic and maths are your friend.

      • Thank you, angech, for your respond.

        “Logic and maths are your friend.”
        Indeed! What we have to rely on is observation, logic, and maths. Also, when it is possible, an experiment.
        But logic and maths should always be present.

        “The T mean is always lower because the energy distribution is uneven and when averaged out is equal but the temperatures when averaged out from those uneven energy amounts is lower(SB),
        Rotation only partially smooths out the energy distribution.
        Since the energy distribution is always unequal the average temperature must always be lower than the Te.”

        The theoretical effective temperature for Earth is Te =255K.
        “Since the energy distribution is always unequal the average temperature must always be lower than the Te.”

        angech, doesn’t that mean the Earth’s without-atmosphere average (mean) surface temperature must be lower than
        Te =255K?
        If true, how much lower than 255K?

        Thank you.

    • CV
      ““When interacting with matter, only a fraction of the not reflected portion of incident SW solar flux is accumulated in inner layers in form of HEAT.”


      It seemed so much obvious that the not reflected portion of the incident SW solar flux is entirely accumulated (absorbed) in inner layers, that it was neglected it was an assumption.
      And it is a very much mistaken assumption.


      • only a fraction of the not reflected portion of incident SW solar flux is accumulated in inner layers in form of HEAT.”
        Once you admit that SW can produce and bank heat you have lost. There is no reason for your assertion to be correct since it is also just an assumption and not a very good one once you admit any possibility of energy going to stored heat,

      • angech
        “Once you admit that SW can produce and bank heat you have lost. There is no reason for your assertion to be correct since it is also just an assumption and not a very good one once you admit any possibility of energy going to stored heat,

        Of course. SW can produce HEAT, which is stored in inner layers, and later on, at night, or at next season of the year, or in the next glacial period the stored in inner layers HEAT, is IR outgoing EM energy emitted to outer space.

        Planet as a entirety is, almost, in a perfect radiative equilibrium with the incident solar flux.
        But surface’s every separate spot is not in radiative equilibrium. What is every separate spot does is to be in continuous interaction process with the incident solar energy.
        This interaction process for every separate spot is cyclical, because of planet rotational spin.


      • “Of course. SW can produce HEAT, which is stored in inner layers, and later on, at night, or at next season of the year, or in the next glacial period the stored in inner layers HEAT, is IR outgoing EM energy emitted to outer space.”

        please, energy cannot be stored in inner layers of a planet or in water currents under a sea. If energy is present it comes from a source and wants to get away from where it is to where it is not.

      • angech
        “please, energy cannot be stored in inner layers of a planet or in water currents under a sea. If energy is present it comes from a source and wants to get away from where it is to where it is not.”

        Of course, “If energy is present it comes from a source and wants to get away from where it is to where it is not.”

        The question is, how fastthe matter (the bearer of energy) is capable to get rid of the energy.

        Thus the seasonal warming and cooling delays occur.
        Here it is a simple observation. Earth is in mid of March – Earth is in Equinox now. The day-night duration is the same – 12 hours for the day and 12 hours for the night.

        The same at mid September – Earth will be in Equinox again.

        Now, in mid March, we experience in Athens the day-night temperature variation from +3 oC to +9 oC.
        It is never been so cold in Athens during the mid September.

        There is always a temperature rise and a temperature fall delay, in relation to the intensity of the incoming solar radiative energy, because of the solar radiative energy being partly transformed into HEAT, and… accumulated in the inner layers.


  52. I noticed in the 2022 Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom that Australia has slipped out of the top 10. I suppose it must be all the COVID spending and our fiscal health. We still won’t be anywhere as fiscally unhealthy as the good ole USA .

    Yep – https://www.heritage.org/index/ranking – just as expected – 🤣

    Australia is ranked 12 and the United States has slipped to 25.

  53. The link to current speculation on possible genesis of life on earth is interesting. The two facets of DNA that most intrigue me though are its’ indefatigable ability for self-copy and its’ equally unstoppable ability for opportunistic adaptation.

    I’m afraid most of the remainder in the list of publications for this thread is just same old, same old.

    I’ve skimmed most of Ellison’s multitudinous comments – nothing new. We have assertions that Australia was wetter and cooler over the last millenium yet the last 40 years is 50% AGW. This “apples with pears” comparison is pointless, and missing is empirical evidence of the asserted 50:50 split. Apart from that …

    • When will they ever learn. Mindless internet slurs. If they lead with insults and innuendo I have no compunction in responding with sarcasm and mockery.

      And of course I bring the latest in Kubernetes, farming news, ecological restoration and conservation, nuclear technologies and popular culture impacts on economics.

      My Spotify – the world’s largest music streaming service – stake is down 38% this morning. Some baby boomer urban hipster doofus musos removed their music. Attempts to quash free speech wont affect the customer base. Spotify’s demographic is grassroots, organic and local.

      I suspect Ian is an urban hipster doofus 5th columnist. .

  54. Leases my arrsssse.

    Interior Department approvals to drill oil and gas wells on public lands have dropped significantly in recent months, a shift from 2021, when the Biden administration topped the Trump administration’s permitting record in its first year.

    The Bureau of Land Management in January approved just 95 permits for oil and natural gas wells across federal lands in the United States, a plunge from the zenith of 643 issued last April, according to a review of data by E&E News.

    The reason for the permitting slowdown is unclear, but it comes as Biden administration officials have been pushing the oil and gas industry to increase drilling amid surging gas prices. Many environmental groups also have been frustrated with the rapid pace of approvals, seeing it as a betrayal of President Biden’s pledges to confront climate change. They say the approvals carved into the number of backlogged permits Biden inherited by nearly 1,000 by year’s end.


  55. Divesting oil and gas is a bitter pill, sort of like Hari-kari.

    But the presentation also included powerful dissenting comments from Axa’s underwriters. For them, a boundary in the Arctic region — or any other new climate line — would sever lucrative relationships. Axa XL, the property and casualty insurance unit responsible for most of the company’s oil and gas business, saw a risk that aggressive policies could hollow out the franchise. Staff would quit, taking technical know-how with them; clients would defect. The total projected loss to core business could reach $1 billion.

    This wasn’t exactly a what-if scenario for Axa’s fossil underwriters. The XL team joined the company in a 2018 acquisition and had to take on board the insurer’s existing coal restrictions. That process led to the forced termination of some client relationships, and the XL underwriters dreaded a repeat in the more lucrative oil and gas business. The counter-climate case was clearly stated, quoted in full in the deck: “We cannot be part of the solution if we antagonize those many clients who are diverting their [oil and gas] profits into offshore wind farms, by walking away from them on the start of this challenging journey.” By cutting off some oil and gas projects, Axa faced a bigger risk than an exodus of energy clients. The insurer stood to lose out on the substantial renewable energy businesses of the green future being built by today’s oil and gas giants.


  56. Add one more excellent reason to get the heck out of New York!

    In 2019, New York City passed Local Law 97, a sweeping measure establishing emissions caps for almost 50,000 of its largest buildings, including the headquarters of some of the world’s largest financial companies. The owners of an estimated 20% of these skyscrapers, hotels, and apartment houses will likely face fines in 2024 when the law goes into effect, because the emissions of their properties will exceed the caps. The proprietors of many more could be in a similar quandary in 2030, when the caps will be lowered by 40%. “It’s the largest emissions reduction policy—not just in the history of this city, but any city in the world,” says former New York City Council member Costa Constantinides, the law’s proud sponsor.


  57. Norway will rake in the cash because of Europe’s deal with the Green Energy Devil.

    OSLO — Norway will boost its natural gas output in the coming months, keeping production higher than normal through the summer and delivering bigger volumes to Europe at a time of shortages and soaring prices, operator Equinor said on Wednesday.

    By postponing some maintenance and making other adjustments, Norway can assist European nations scrambling to fill storages depleted by winter consumption and a reduction in Russian gas exports.


  58. Fossil fuel reality swamps the Green Extremists’ Unicorn dreams.

    Just as we were the Arsenal of Democracy when fascism threatened Europe 80 years ago, today we must become the Arsenal of Clean Energy. That means we should finance and export clean energy to Europe in large quantities as quickly as possible. This approach would help protect our own security and economic interests, as well as the sovereignty, democracies, and economies of Europe, all while working to combat climate change.

    Our goals should be: 1) make European energy secure; 2) help shift European countries to cleaner energy; and 3) create a massive clean energy market that strengthens supply chains and job creation in the U.S.

    To make this work, we must avoid both conventional and magical thinking. This is not about sending cheap Chinese equipment to Europe, and it’s not about somehow shifting to solar power in the cloudy regions of Central and Eastern Europe. In the European Union, it’s still natural gas that drives the economy. Gas heats buildings, generates electricity, and provides industrial power and heat in about equal measure. Oil powers transportation and is used for petrochemicals. Whatever replaces Russian natural gas and oil must meet all these needs.


  59. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Frigid continental air from northern Russia is now flowing into Eastern Europe. It is cold because the snow cover does not allow the surface to warm up.

  60. The biggest risks/consequences from carbon capture storage will be ignored and mis-attributed to global warming.


  61. Looks like Germany would rather burn coal and (allegedly) exacerbate “climate change” (much to the chagrin of the Green Energy Extremists) than let its economy collapse.

    RWE is also examining which coal-fired power plants could return to the grid in the event of an emergency or could stay on the grid longer than planned, said Krebber. These are brown coal-fired power plants with a total capacity of 2700 megawatts and a coal-fired power plant with 800 megawatts. “It is up to the federal government to decide whether these blocks should be used temporarily and to what extent they should be used to some extent to reduce gas consumption,” Krebber said. If a temporary deployment is required, “we will temporarily return these facilities to the network – or do not switch them off”. But that does not change anything on the coal exit path, stressed Krebber. “It’s not a rollback, but at least a step to the side for a limited time.”

    In view of a high “dependence on Russia” in the energy supply in Germany and Europe, RWE spoke out against a halt to Russian energy supplies. This would have “massive consequences”, Krebber said. “An immediate stop would have unforeseen consequences for the heat supply of households.” A prolonged supply disruption should also permanently damage the production facilities of industry and the middle class. Therefore, he can very well enforce the position of the Federal Government against sanctions on energy supplies. “Sanctions must be chosen in such a way that we can endure them as well.”


    • Ireneusz Palmowski

      Due to the ongoing La Niña, there could be a repeat of the summer floods in Germany. It will be difficult to obtain solar energy.

      • Curious George

        “There could be.” The language of climate scientists.

      • No, that is the language of weather forecasters. Climate scientists must appear to be more certain or everybody will ignore them due to the long time horizon.

  62. ASM have a shovel ready rare earth oxide project on the Doongi deposit near Dubbo, Australia. They are arranging finance to build the full scale refinery. The Doongi deposit was discovered by Geoff Sherrington 20 years ago – or at least he kicked it off he claims – and I see no reason to call him a liar. A bit hidebound and ossified maybe. It is a magmatic intrusion of a type in which rare earth elements concentrate. The global recoverable rare earth oxide resource is some 110 million metric tons – and annual consumption some 170 thousand tons. China has 50% of the global resource – and had about 90% of the trade until 2010 when they started mucking about with export quotas. Just like OPEC does to manipulate oil prices.

    The Doongi project has a new refining process that was developed by a Korean scientist that they say is much cheaper. And supplies purer products. The Korean guy has cashed in but still works as a technical director. Refining reduces product transport costs – most of the mined material can then be returned to the pit to rehabilitate the landscape. ASM has a 20 year mine site plan.

    I’m not a slick investor. I’m slowly and cautiously putting a little spare cash into high growth stocks. There’s no reason for that plan to change. High growth stocks might involve new products, services or methods in a large ‘addressable market’. I have some Upstart Holdings for instance – they have a product, sales and sales growth in a huge potential market. They have a metaverse consumer financing artificial intelligence (AI) that banks use to make better and faster consumer loan decisions. It’s available in north America now but the reach is global consumer finance. But I digress.

    Wow – and I know next to nothing about rare earths. I’ve found these of neophyte interest.

    Look for Dubbo zirconia on Figure 04.


    The basic rare earth facts from Geoscience Australia.


    Busting out of a weak would be Chinese commodity stranglehold. 🤣


    These are precious resources that should be used efficiently and recovered and recycled where possible. If there is going to be another glacial – our kids and their kid’s kids will need them. Honestly – stuff windmills – the Brayton cycle helium turbines in GA’s SMR use magnetic bearings.

  63. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Troposphere temperatures will still remain below average in March in North America. The polar vortex continues to operate. La Niña will become active in May. As solar activity increases, hurricane activity may increase, both in the western Pacific and Atlantic.

  64. Ireneusz Palmowski

    This month, the forecaster consensus favors a slower decay of La Niña due to the recent renewal of ocean-atmosphere coupling, which contributed to cooler near-term forecasts from several state-of-the-art climate models. For the summer and beyond, there is large uncertainty in the state of ENSO; however forecasters lean toward negative Niño-3.4 index values even if the index does not reach La Niña thresholds. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

  65. Ireneusz Palmowski

    “Also, La Niña three-peats (triple dips?) are very rare—only two exist in our more reliable historical record going back to 1950 and both occurred after major El Niño events, which our current event did not. The time evolution of the Niño-3.4 index for the two La Niña three-peats is featured in the darker blue lines in the image below. It is also interesting that out of the eight double-dip La Niñas in our historical record, three ended up evolving into an El Niño for the third winter (red lines) and the remaining three ended up on the cooler side, close to La Niña thresholds, but were ultimately classified as ENSO-neutral winters.”

  66. I foretell in the runes that April is the season of ENSO uncertainty.


  67. “ The International Energy Agency has released a 10-point plan aimed at reducing global oil consumption by as much as 2.7 million barrels daily.

    The focus of the measure that the IEA has put forward is on transportation. Measures include encouraging carpooling on inter-urban journeys and the use of alternative modes of transportation such as trains and bicycles.”….

    “ According to the agency, some 290,000 bpd in oil demand could be eliminated by reducing speed limits on highways. Another half a million barrels daily of oil could be saved if more people adopt a hybrid work model, staying at home for up to three days a week.

    Yet another 380,000 bpd of oil consumption could be saved, according to the IEA, if large cities ban cars for one day a week. This has been done before, the agency noted in its report, and it has had the added benefit of stimulating the use of alternative, non-polluting, and non-oil-consuming means of transportation such as bicycles and walking.”


    My plan is to walk the 20 miles to visit my grandkids.

  68. Ireneusz Palmowski

    A powerful high over Europe is pulling frigid air from Russia to the west. Frosts will occur during the night. The further east we go, the stronger the frost.

  69. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Cold air masses from the north are reaching the western US again.

  70. As if some African countries don’t already have enough food insecurity problems.


    • It is currently a great time to own a wheat farm in the US. Just as US oil producers will soon be making more and contributing to the US economy.

  71. Food crisis caused by energy crisis caused by Green Energy Extremists who do everything in their power to kill fossil fuels whilst promoting unreliables: solar and wind.

    Oil’s surge past $100 a barrel has sent diesel futures in Europe and the U.S. to the highest in decades. Increasing fuel costs will raise expenses for farmers who have to run a lot of heavy machinery for sowing, tilling and harvesting. It will also be costlier to heat barns that house livestock.

    Prices for fertilizers, used to grow practically all crops, have also risen dramatically in the past year. A crunch for natural gas supply, elevated freight rates, tariffs, extreme weather and sanctions on key producer Belarus all contributed to the rally. And now Russia, the biggest exporter of urea and No. 2 for potash, is seeking to end fertilizer exports, threatening a global shortage. The Green Markets North American Fertilizer Price Index has doubled in the last 12 months to reach a record.


  72. It’s amazing how Omicron has come to dominate.


  73. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Severe frontal thunderstorms in Oklahoma.
    Below, the circulation in the upper troposphere.

  74. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Severe thunderstorms on the cold front in Texas and Arkansas.

  75. Ireneusz Palmowski
  76. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The polar vortex in the lower stratosphere is completely broken up (another SSW), which will release Arctic air masses.

  77. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Galactic radiation is increasing again, indicating a weak solar wind.

  78. A new article in Nature discuss the latest findings in the origin of COVID and China’s obstruction.


    “On 22 January 2020, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that 33 of 585 swabs taken from around the market tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, and that these samples were concentrated in two aisles of stalls where wild animals were sold. “It is highly suspected that the current epidemic is related to the trade of wild animals,” the report said.”

    However, China has not issued any reports investigations into about the farms and other organizations that delivered wild animals to the Wuhan market, especially from South China. And the Chinese team that on reported environmental samples from the market are refusing to publish the genetic sequences of the positive samples.

    “conservation biologists in China published a paper in Scientific Reports5 documenting more than 47,000 animals — including 31 protected species — that had been sold at the Huanan market and others in Wuhan as recently as November 2019. The report noted that almost all of the animals were sold alive in cages, that butchering was usually done at the market, and that many of the traded species are known to host a range of infectious diseases.”

    In short – as best I can tell – the hypothesis that SARS2 originated in animals in bat infested Southern China and was brought to humans via the wild animal trade (like SARS1) has not been tested – or if tested, not reported on. Much of the wild animal trade has been shut down.

  79. Ireneusz Palmowski

    A strong Arctic front is moving over the Great Lakes.

  80. “ Germany has declared an “early warning” that it could soon be facing a natural gas emergency as Europe’s largest economy prepares for the risk of a full supply disruption from Russia.”

    Who couldn’t see this coming. The perfect storm, however, is waiting for next winter, due to reasons we can’t anticipate. Make yourself vulnerable and Murphy’s Law takes over.


  81. “Progressive (actually Regressive) Green Energy Extremist energy policy continues to eat away at our comfortable way of life. Now, they continue their assault on affordable transportation.

    DETROIT (AP) — New vehicles sold in the U.S. will have to average at least 40 miles per gallon of gasoline in 2026, up from about 28 mpg, under new federal rules unveiled Friday that undo a rollback of standards enacted under President Donald Trump.

    The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said its new fuel economy requirements are the strongest to date and the maximum the industry can achieve over the time period. They will reduce gasoline consumption by more than 220 billion gallons over the life of vehicles, compared with the Trump standards.

    They’re expected to decrease carbon dioxide emissions — but not as much as some environmentalists want — and raise new vehicle prices in an industry already pressed by inflation and supply chain issues.


  82. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The southeastern US is seeing weather typical of an active La Niña. Hurricane season may also be active.

  83. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The temperature of the Peruvian Current is falling again.