by Judith Curry
I just finished reading an article entitled Asymptomatic Spread Revisited.
A new article in Nature [link] based on an extremely extensive and thorough analysis in Wuhan found no cases of asymptomatic transmission. Cynically, comments on this paper question whether we can we trust anything coming out of China on this subject?
This article motivated me to go to Google Scholar to look for papers related to asymptomatic spread. I mostly found mathematical models, not careful analyses like the Wuhan study
I have an anecdote on this. One of my employees in Colombia came down with Covid-19, along with 11 family members, after a gathering where no one had symptoms. The first family member came down with symptoms two days after the gathering. Unfortunately, one family member died.
This paper [link] provides insights on aysmptomatic versus pre-symptomatic.
So what to make of this? Asymptomatic spread seems to be a key assumption under the more extreme lockdown measures.
In any event, we need a new Covid thread, I open this topic up for discussion. Hopefully the denizens can identify some additional research on this.