U.S. election discussion thread

by Judith Curry

No words.

The only thing crazier than the U.S. election is this morning’s hurricane forecast.

I have no words re the election.  For a diversion, here is my hurricane forecast for Eta.

Summary:  current: TERRIBLE.  forecast: CRAZY

Latest from NHC (7 am EST): 145 mph max sustained winds, min pressure 936 mb, moving WSW at 4 mph

Eta is a monster, about to make landfall in Nicaragua.  Currently undergoing eyewall replacement cycle which has dropped the intensity somewhat (it came close to Cat 5).  This will be horrible for Nicaragua.
The Cyclone Damage Potential is off the charts:  Not only extremely high wind speed, but moving slow.  I can’t remember the number for Dorian, will look that up later.  But I think 9 is the highest I’ve seen for an actual landfall. (Hurricane Katrina was a 3.8)
The worst is far from over.  The first thing I saw this morning, from ECMWF.  The red dots are Major Hurricane. This looks like the West Pacific, I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like this in the Atlantic. The ECMWF might be going crazy in terms of intensity (more below).
Regional intensity probabilities from CFAN’s ECMWF-based synthetic tracks.

Track

Here is the near term track forecast, from everything that is on the landfall impact tool.  While some tracks take a dive in Central America, most make a NE turn towards Cuba, reaching Cuba in 4-6 days.  ECMWF wants to quickly redevelop into a MHR; the HWRF and NHC keep Eta at a tropical storm; with GEFS redeveloping to a hurricane.
Beyond 5-6 days, it looks like the tracks that survive that long are headed towards the eastern Gulf coast.  For the last several runs, GEFS Ensemble Mean takes it to Tampa, but this is 9-10 days where there is little track forecast skill.
From the ECMWF ensembles, 52% make it into the Gulf of Mexico, and 53% from the GEFS.
Here are the synthetic track pdfs:
Intensity
Here’s another forecast, the likes of which I’ve never seen before.  ECMWF keeps this near a Cat 3, the GEFS keeps this near the Cat 2 border, and the NHC quickly drops off to a TS or lower.  The GFS/GEFS emerges back into the Caribbean more quickly than the ECMWF.
BTW, re rapid intensification, CFAN’s RI index shut down after the 18Z forecast yesterday.
After landfall in Central America, there are mountains and I would normally expect Eta to be torn apart quickly, which is what NHC is predicting.  But there is a piker that lends some credibility to the global model forecasts.  This is the 200 hPa velocity potential forecast for 11/02 – 11/06.  Dark green means that the large-scale dynamics support strong rising motion over Nicaragua, indicating the atmospheric dynamics do support maintaining the intensity.  So the GEFS/GFS intensity forecasts could be about right (ECMWF looks unbelievable to me, but it’s 2020).
If Eta really does collapse like the NHC predicts, there may be nothing left to redevelop.  But conditions are sufficiently favorable in the Caribbean for the next ~10 days that there is no way we are off the hook if Eta somehow dies in Central America.

1,424 responses to “U.S. election discussion thread

    • H/t GWPF newsletter

      Age of Unreason: How fear and ignorance drives the green doomsday cult

      “The new ‘green’ religion is a world where the naïve and gullible seek salvation through the veneration of wind turbines – as if crucifixes – belief in “the science” has supplanted Scripture and ‘scientists’ peddling doomsday tales garner rapt attention, like the fire and brimstone preachers, of old. Those who question “the science” are branded “deniers”, with all the vehemence that was once reserved for Spanish Inquisitors rooting out heretics.

      What’s dressed up as “progress” these days seems more and more like a drift back to our Dark Age of misery, poverty and ignorance.

      Anyone who thinks that wind turbines and solar panels equate with mortal salvation, is more than just a little confused. But that’s the very point and purpose of those pushing the so-called inevitable ‘transition’ to an all wind and solar powered future.

      As in days gone by, the model rests on invent new forms of fear and firmly instilling them. And then following up with the promise of redemption through sacrifice and worship; albeit worshipping wind turbines and solar panels, instead of saints and idols.

      The faithful readily subscribe to the myth and the mantras – and merrily provide buckets of cash – all for a chance to get up close and personal with one of these whirling wonders (see above) and to otherwise signal their supreme virtue, to all and sundry.

      Prager University poses the the following: Has environmentalism become more than just a good faith effort to protect the Earth? Is it now tantamount to a religion? And if it is, is that a good thing or a bad thing?

      PragerU’s latest short documentary, hosted by Will Witt, explores the origins, agenda, and motives of today’s environmental movement. What he finds raises some challenging questions for anyone who sincerely cares about the future of the planet.”

      Click on link to watch Prager University’s video

      • Peter: For how much longer would you like to have 0.2 C/dec warming?

      • Peter Lang commented:
        Prager University….

        Brainwashing, for people who can’t think for themselves and need someone to tell them what to think. Sadly.

      • Everett F Sargent

        They actually allowed Trump University to change their name to Prager University?

      • I have a lot of respect for Michael Shellenberger, especially because he is someone who has turned from a climate catastrophist to a climate realist, similar to myself.

        The main issue is to determine the natural cause of climate change, which Dr. Judith Curry believes to be over 50%, relative to human caused CO2 emissions.

        A modified gravity theory achieves this goal but is very leftfield and is only just breaking into mainstream awareness.

        I have just been in communication with the lead scientist who is tracking the near-Earth orbit of asteroid Apophis. He has shown an interest in the exotic core hypothesis and I have started to convey the concepts to him.

        Due to the as yet non-mathematical nature of the hypothesis, it may take a little time for traction in the mainstream science community. The journey though may have just begun.

      • The multidecadal link between the Pacific state and surface temperature is via shortwave modulation of ocean heat content through cloud feedback.

        There are centennial to millennial influences on hydrology and surface temperature.

        This is less an oddball guess than a validated hypothesis.

      • Robert – you need to provide a link in conjunction with posting detailed images which mention the word “hydrology”.

      • Robert – have you ever been a paid scientist? Your statements and links don’t support that view.

        “..summer sea salt (LDSSS) record has exhibited two below-average (El Niño–like) epochs, 1000–1260 ad and 1920–2009 ad, and a longer above-average (La Niña–like) epoch from 1260 to 1860 ad..”

        I immediately saw a correlation with figures from the Medieval Warm Period and subsequent cold phases of the Little Ice Age:
        https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

        We all cherry pick data & research papers which appear to support our worldview.

        A modified gravity theory which increases tidal energy is a viable underlying mechanism of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation imo.

      • There are centennial to millennial influences on hydrology and surface temperature… As I clearly said.

      • And no it is not an oddball guess – let alone a ‘viable mechanism’ – that remotely explains geophysical series.

      • Joe - Dallas CPA

        Appleman’s comment – “Prager university – Brainwashing, for people who can’t think for themselves and need someone to tell them what to think. Sadly.”

        Kinda like Appleman’s other comments such as – “Trump raised taxes based on NYT article, and a nobel laureate – Yet Appleman refuses to to provide any citations or references the what statute actually increases the income taxes under Trump

        Apparently Climate scientists are immune from showing their work.

      • Ironic – a poll done before a recent British election showed greens to be, by far, the most atheist group in Britain. Only 1% of them believing in God.

      • From David Appell:
        Peter: For how much longer would you like to have 0.2 C/dec warming?

        To: David Appell:
        David: How many more children should be sacrifice to Baal to stop the climate change?

      • Prager, like Trump University before it, is an institution that beggars the imagination of academic disaster .

        I see Judith has been called upon to apply her Georgia Tech expertise to the Administration’s NOAA deck chair re-arrangement by The New York Times.

        https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2020/11/is-man-inside-bear-suit-new-lame-duck.html

        More news on this rambling wreck may be expected/

    • Being good stewards of Earth is without doubt a duty to God and the future. We are changing Earth systems in fundamental ways – with little understanding of consequences. It is a complex and dynamic – nonlinear – world .

      There has been much progress in reducing diverse pressures on Earth systems. It remains to double down on successes and change the narrative to something far more optimistic.

      https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-and-news-11-03-20/index.html
      https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries/planetary-boundaries/about-the-research/the-nine-planetary-boundaries.html

      • Linked CNN instead of the Stockholm Resilience Centre.

        A long night of politics – although it was only 10.00 pm local time when I quit. Still no outcome this morning and Trump is still playing a very dangerous game.

  1. I was shocked when Trump won the presidency with an electoral vote mandate but I would be even more shocked if he didn’t do that this time…

    • And I will not be surprised if he wins again, but will still be shocked, an obvious contradiction since one who is not surprised should not be shocked either. But what the hell has happened to the democratic lighthouse of the West. The nation that taught us about the principle of distribution of power, the importance of a free and responsible press. The principle that decisions related to prosecution and punishment should be depoliticized. The principle of universal suffrage where the state shall facilitate it, instead of hiring a new Postmaster General who his first asignment was to suppress the right to vote. What happened to the principle of at least trying to leave the scientific research apolitical, and then hiring the political jerk Ryan Maue as scientific director of NOAA. And so I could continue. Hitler came to power with about the same majority as Trump came to power in 2016. You are far closer to Nazi Germany than you realize, four new years with this monkey in power can bring you even closer.

      • Yeah sure… rational people don’t shut nonsense like this off– definitely more persuasive than the average global warming alarmist propaganda…

  2. Night of the Voting Dead

  3. This election hinges on whether Trump outperforms the polls like he did in 2016.
    While in 2016, Trump actually led most of the “batteground” states, he nonetheless outperformed in 10 of the 13 “swing” + “leaning Biden” states by an average of 3.4%, with outperformance of 2.9% in 8 of the 10 swing states.
    But a significant part of the outperformance was in 3 states: Michigan, Iowa and Wisconsin.
    In 2020, Trump is behind or tied in 8 of the 9 swing states but the margin is really thin. 7 of the 9 are +- 1 in either direction.
    Trafalgar – the only pollster that was right in 2016 (they were directionally correct in every single state they polled, albeit absolute numbers were way off in several states), has Trump ahead in 7 of the 9 swing states and in Michigan.
    If Trafalgar is right – and/or Trump outperforms even half as well as he did in 2016, Trump will win the election.
    Last data point: Florida has a pretty impressive vote system.
    In 2016 – HRC was ahead 84K votes going into election day.
    In 2020 – Biden was ahead 76K votes going into today. As of this moment, the lead is down to 39.5K (11:52 am EST).
    Updated totals can be seen at: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
    At least for Florida, it is clear the consensus RCP of Biden +2 is going to be significantly wrong barring a late Democrat tide (which is 100% opposite to all historical precedents; Republicans generally have the edge in Election Day voting).
    Trafalgar has Florida as Trump+2.7 – doesn’t seem likely that this will happen either.

    • Why do people trust customer reviews on e-commerce web sites? Have you ever reviewed a product and lied about your opinion? Weird social behavior.

      • > 2016

        2016 is evidence that the state polling was wrong in certain states while the national polling was fairly accurate.

        That isn’t evidence of *why* the state polling was wrong. Looks like the polling errors will play out AGAIN in 2020. But again it isn’t evidence for *why* the polling was in error.

        It isn’t evidence that the polling was wrong becsuee of a “shy Trump voter” effect, or because people are lying to posters. It oils very well be that afsk, they weighted the sampling wrong. Could well have been in 2016 for the very reason they said – underweighting by education. Could be because Trump brought out people they didn’t expect to vote based on past voting habits. Yes, it COULD be because of *shy Trump voters* but can you point to evidence to support that theory?

    • Maybe (??) the major difference this time will be the (?) very heavy early voting and (?) postal voting. I suspect that a higher voter turnout will favour Joe Biden.

      • I suspect the opposite. Also, the fevered anti-Trump hysteria makes it likely that a lot of people lied about who they will vote for. A poll asking people instead who they thought will win put Trump well ahead.

      • > makes it likely…

        Makes it likely? There is little to no evidence that it’s a sizable phenomenon. Last time Trump outperformed his polling in heavily red areas, not the bluer areas where you’d expect his supporters to be intimidated. If his supporters are lying and telling pollsters that they are Demz voting for Biden when they’re actually Pubz voting for Trump, then Demz would be over-sampled and then pollsters would factor what they say out when they adjust the samples to make them representative. If there were a “social desirabiliy bias” showing up, then you would expect there to be a difference between online polling and live person to person polling. No such difference has shown up.

        The polling that was wrong last time in State polling has other evidence to explain the error. The polling that was right in the state polling could have been right for other reasons.

        “Likely” seems quite unsupported. It may be true – but it’s interesting that you’d think something is “likely” when there’s no actual evidence in support.

        I think Trump may well win, but I”d say it’s unlikely because his supporters were lying to pollsters. If he wins, it could well be because his supporters were not weighted properly when they adjusted the sampling.

      • Joshua | November 3, 2020 at 4:55 pm |
        > makes it likely…

        Makes it likely? There is little to no evidence that it’s a sizable phenomenon.

        2016

      • UK-Weather Lass

        Maybe human beings are destined to be just not very good at forecasting the future no matter whether it is religion, science or easy money driving the predictions. Perhaps tea leaf readers are not alone in being charlatans, but our ancient astrologers and behaviour observers were on to something if they hadn’t been asked to justify their existence to higher mortal powers …

  4. NOAA imagery for ETA at https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL292020#navLink
    Lots of links from there.
    ETA landfall stretches Central American 2020 hurricane season from May to November, beginning with Amanda/Cristobal.

  5. I reposted the images. You can see what I do for my day job :)

  6. Under the American system the President has relatively little power. The doctrine of “no kings.” He or she is not even an MP much less the PM. I touch on this here:
    https://www.cfact.org/2020/07/30/bidens-false-climate-promises/
    Biden cannot do any of the drastic things he promises. The most he can do is beg Congress to do them.

    Congress has most of the power and unfortunately the Presidential show has made that fight invisible.

    The President does not have the power being universally attributed, Trump, Biden or Harris. Trump repeatedly tried to change agency funding and Congress simply ignored him.

    The future of America does not depend on who the President is. We are much stronger than that, by design. The hysteria is unfounded (just like with climate change).

    • Have you ever heard of Executive Orders? Who do you think appoints the heads of the various departments(e.g. DOE, EPA, etc.)
      A US president is a very powerful executive who can cause major impacts on the US economy.

      • I have helped write executive orders. They only apply to internal agency actions. Everything the agencies do that significantly affects the economy has to be authorized and funded by Congress. All regulations, programs and spending. The agencies have some leeway in carrying out programs but it is small compared to Congresses role in creating the programs and funding them on an annual basis.

      • The Code of Federal Regulations are implemented by agencies. As we have seen, the Executive branch can significantly alter the ability of the unelected agency bureaucrats to gum up the economy.

        Congress has let the Executive branch take the lead, preferring to runoff-at-the-mouth while accomplishing little. I do not share your love affair with politicians. Hard to say what the electorate will do this election cycle. However, the political class was on the short end the last cycle. That was how Trump became president.

        Just out of curiosity, for whom were you penning executive orders?

    • In general the presidential candidate’s party that wins a state also wins the Senate. THAT matters a LOT!

    • Wohick
      Your article makes some sense for the usual climate change promises by presidential candidates. But the declaration that the US president has “relatively little power” is completely wrong.

      Tell that to the 59.000 Americans who died in Vietnam

      And a similar number of Americans who died in Korea.

      Tell us that supreme court judge nominations don’t matter — no difference if all nine justices were appointed by a Democrat or a Republican president?

      How about the EPA deliberately settling a lawsuit by an environmental group, that they could have won, but didn’t even try to win … that leads to a new precedent … for an expansion of EPA regulations without any action by congress.

      How about the EPA (or any other agency) interpreting a congressional law in an aggressive way that does not match the intent of Congress, but Congress does nothing to help them.

      And finally, how about a president using “his” heads of the Justice Department, FBI, CIA and IRS to investigate an opposing candidate and try to derail an election?

      Might be illegal, but it happened under Obama … and even under Trump”

      The Obama deep state may not have derailed Trump in 2016, perhaps because they were incompetent bureaucrats, but their two year Mueller investigation while Trump was president , with no evidence of any Trump wrongdoing that would justify an investigation, hurt Republicans in the 2018 elections.

      The FBI’s failure to investigate Hunter Biden, after getting his laptop hard drive copy in September 2019, allowed the head of the Biden Crime Family run for president with his bad character, and actual crimes (one bragged about on a 2018 video), hidden from the general public.

      “The president has relatively little power” is the only nonsense I have ever seen under your byline. A presidential candidate will make dozens of promises knowing he does not not have the power to implement them by himself. Trump was guilty of that in 2016 as well as Biden in 2020. That fact does not mean a president has “relatively little power”.

      In 2020, we suddenly found out that state governors had a lot more power than we ever expected them to have, sometimes violating their state constitutions. Their previously unused powers concerned arbitrary damage to the economies of their own states. Much damage was done here in Michigan BEFORE our supreme court ruled against our Governor “Witless”.

      There are likely to be presidential powers, perhaps implemented during a pandemic, or during a war, without Congressional approval, that we have not even imagined yet.

      Your claim that the US president “has relatively little power” (compared with Congress, I assume) was so wrong that you should come begging on your knees to Ms. Curry, asking to get your comment removed, and thereby avoid permanent damage to your previously good reputation. If that doesn’t work, then change your name for future comments.
      Have a nice day;
      The Cliff Claven of Finance

  7. Jo Nova has an amusing and insightful piece on voter “shyness” about saying who they will vote for.
    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/11/bigotry-from-the-party-of-peace-and-tolerance-creates-the-shy-voter-that-bites-back/

  8. At what point do people who declared that Srockholm reached “herd immunity” months ago come back and tell us when their conclusion, based on theoretical modeling, is falsified by reality?

    > Lofven warned that the latest development is putting Sweden’s health-care system under pressure, as more intensive care beds get filled.

    “The brief respite that we got during the summer is over,” he said. “How we act now will determine what kind of Christmas we will be able to celebrate, and who will be able to take part.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-03/sweden-adds-restrictions-amid-very-serious-covid-resurgence

    • What does this have to with the election?

      • Curious George

        Without a virus this would have been a simple Trump’s re-election. Democrats fault Trump for not approaching the virus scientifically. But they clearly supplied Sweden’s socialists with a bad advice.

      • Curious George 5:14pm “But they clearly supplied Sweden’s socialists with a bad advice.”

        With the caveat that it will probably be next year before we know the difference between good and bad advice regarding Covid-19, Sweden has faired better than many other nations. According to Worldometers.info, Sweden is 49th in “Tot Cases/1M pop” and 17th in “Deaths/1M pop.” Not clear that they followed bad advice.

      • Everett F Sargent

        Deaths/1M pop.
        Sweden = 17
        Denmark = 76
        Finland = 100
        Norway = 107
        Iceland = 112

        The per capita difference is ~8:1 more deaths in Sweden compared to their closest Nordic neighbors.

      • > What does this have to with the election?

        Pretty much everything. The situation with Covid is another example of how everything in this country has been reduced to a tribal battle along partisan lines.

        Why have “skeptics” pretty much gone all in on “herd immunity?”. Why have they gone all in on climate “skepticism?”

        Identity-based motivated reasoning is a dominant paradigm in our society. It explains how we deal with societal issues. Issues get overlayed into that frame.

      • The Dimowits have been beating the “number of cases” drum along with their Y Steam Media cohorts. CNN and MSNBC – that’s just about all they’ve talked about and it’s Biden’s main theme. As if he will be able to do anything about it. Like I’ve said before, Biden is the capsid of the Blue Virus and Comielah is the payload.

      • Demz focus on # of cases and hospitalizations. Pubz focus on number of deaths.

        Neither is a full picture but the problem for pubz, as you have so amply demonstrated, is that there is a time lag between cases and hospitalizatons and deaths.

        This summer the pubz tried to argue that there isn’t a direct link – that the only reason for the increase in cases was more testing and more younger people being identified as positive cases.

        But then the # of hospitalizations and deaths surged as was inevitable. The IFR has lowered. There will be more infections per hospitalization and death. But the hospitalizations are already surging after a lag from the recent surge in cases and an increase in deaths has started (up some 15%l.

      • CDC just issued a update saying if you have tested positive (asymptomatic too) then it’s OK to break quarantine and vote in person.

        From the Wash. Post:
        “As the presidential election collides with a global pandemic, the CDC said people who are sick with the coronavirus can still vote in person Tuesday.

        In updated guidance published Sunday, the agency said voters who have tested positive or may have been exposed to the coronavirus should follow the standard advice to wear a mask, stay at least six feet away from others and sanitize their hands before and after voting. “You should also let poll workers know that you are sick or in quarantine when you arrive at the polling location,” the CDC’s website states.”

        Forget herd immunity. Lets just thin the herd. The target demographics suggest it should help with our wealth inequality problem.

      • Roger Knights

        “The per capita difference is ~8:1 more deaths in Sweden compared to their closest Nordic neighbors.”

        ??? Doesn’t that contradict the 17 deaths per million figure you gave for Sweden?

      • Clearly a mistake in the 17 number. Sweden has far more deaths per capita.

      • Everett F Sargent

        Ranked countries per capita (Sweden is the 17th country on a per capita basis at worldmeters.info link).

    • spread exceeds swedes worst case

      https://www.dn.se/sverige/smittspridningen-hogre-an-fhms-varsta-scenario/

      so much for herd immunity

      • Masher your link is in Swedish — are we supposed to learn the language or just trust what you say?

        I agree with “so much for herd immunity” if I interpreted that correctly.

        How about a few more words, and a link in English, next time?

      • can I make you a sandwich while I am at it?

      • Cliff.

        They have these things called computers. They display these things called websites. Some of thee websites have this thing called translation.

        Check it out. Might be worth your time.

    • What’s happening in Sweden is happening all over the NH. If Sweden locks down on a baseless belief they can prevent the spread of the virus how does that prove lock downs work, or make sense?

      • Everett F Sargent

        You already answered your own circular question, “baseless belief” leads to a circular self answering question. Must have failed a basic course in Logic badly!

      • Your answer seems to imply you agree with me…that lockdowns are pointless. I concur. I was hoping Joshua would explain why he cares so much whether the Swedish government locks down or not. As I said, what is happening in Sweden is happening everywhere in the NH.

      • Everett F Sargent

        No, another logic fail. Does social closening/intermingling/french kissing/no masking/no washing measures work in the transmission of COVID-19? Yes, in three words, The White House.

  9. Everett F Sargent

    Who could have imagined that a virus would lead to Small Hands own Downfall video?

  10. Reminder:

    If you put your “I Voted” sticker under your pillow tonight,
    then the Election Fairy will leave you a Xanax.

  11. Hopefully Biden can reverse Trump’s tax increases that begin next year and continue on to 2027, when middle class income taxes will be larger than 2019’s. (Those with incomes > $100 K/yr will receive large tax cuts.) A Democratic Senate and (a given) House will help immensely in reversing this inequality and increasing taxes on the upper middle class and the wealthy to a fair level.

    • Well David, if you get your wish and Commielah wins, they will tax us out of our houses and shove us into high rises in the lefty hell-hole cites. They will tax us out of our cars and into germ-laden public transportation. They will figure out a way to get rid of our guns. That’s what you will get. Welcome to the Blue Utopia, Komrade.

      • Jim, Trump has already raised your taxes. Do you care?

        Everything else you wrote is ridiculous, and I think you know that. We hear it every election and none of it ever comes true, as under Obama. So why do you pretend to be so afraid?

      • Dave

        Have you seen Jim’s tax returns? How do you know Trump has raised Jim’s taxes.

      • David, I want some of what you are taking!

    • Everett F Sargent

      It would sort of be nice to belong to the rest of the World once more.

      • What does that mean? Really, I don’t follow your point.

      • It means, the rest of the world has ceased to respect us as honorable world citizens.

      • David Appell | November 3, 2020 at 9:05 pm |
        “It means, the rest of the world has ceased to respect us as honorable world citizens.”

        Is that why Hong Kong citizens are waving US flags seeking freedom

    • I just hope the demz hold the House – at least that will hamstring Trump’s worst impulses.

      • I’m holed up watching Danish TV series. Friend texted that Fox News says demz will hold house, maybe pick up 5 seats. I’ll take that. As long as has some obstacles in his 2nd term, I’ll take it. Lots of pressure on thempelosi, though, with big republican majority in Senate, the SCOTUS, and a president with a YUGE electoral college mandate. But at least it’s something.

    • David, I am confused. Will middle class income taxes be larger in 2027 than in 2019? If so, so what?

      • George: Yes. You don’t care that Trump has already raised your taxes, secretly?

      • Joe - Dallas CPA

        David Appell | November 3, 2020 at 9:05 pm |
        George: Yes. You don’t care that Trump has already raised your taxes, secretly?

        David – Can you provide us with some insight on how Trump’s 2017 tax act secretly raised our income taxes

      • Dave

        Thrill us with your acumen. Tell us how George’s taxes will go up. Be specific.

      • Joe, sure, I learned about it here, in this 10/31 op-ed by economist and Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz:

      • David is taking sillysybin.

      • Joe - Dallas CPA

        David
        perhaps you can give as an actual citation to US title 26 instead of a NYT article with zero references, zero citations, zero explanation
        Thanks

      • Jim, your little comments are easy to ignore.

      • Joe, I think a NY Times article by a Nobel Laureate is enough. I’m sure you can look up the rest if you need that.

      • jim2 wrote:
        David is taking sillysybin.

        Trump, and his supporters, always choose ignorance when presented with reality.

      • Joe - Dallas CPA

        David Appell | November 3, 2020 at 10:09 pm |
        Joe, I think a NY Times article by a Nobel Laureate is enough. I’m sure you can look up the rest if you need that.

        If you are truly a scholar – then you know your evasion is an admission that you have no clue on the subject matter. The NYT also omitted any citation, which indicates that they are misrepresenting the statute under US title 26.

        I presume you have the intellectual skills to provide a citation

      • Joe is a typical Trump voter — prefers ignorance compared to the essay of a Nobel Laureate economist, or the link by Everett below, or cares to get off his a** and do any research of his own.

        Joe chooses to be ignorant. Worse of all, he isn’t ashamed of it.

      • Joe - Dallas CPA

        David

        Neither you nor the NOBEL LAURETTE provided a citation
        Neither you nor the NOBEL LAURETTE provided any facts to support the claim

        You know what that gets you in an academic paper – a Freaking F

        Though it probably qualifies as peer reviewed in climate science.

      • Joe: You’re a CPA. Isn’t it your job to borrow into tax regulations to decide what financial maneuvers will benefit your clients?

        A Nobel Prize winner gave you a heads up. Go prove him wrong.

      • Joe, I’m confident of Stiglitz’s claims in his op-ed.

        If you aren’t, it’s up to you, not me, to investigate his claims. He has a Nobel Prize in Economics, and as far as I know, you have absolutely no honors or prizes or credentials of any kind. Nothing.

      • David – I’m also a fan of Joseph Stiglitz and his straight talking. Just to let you know where my politics stand:

        I’m neither a fan of Joe Biden nor Donald Trump. The best imaginary outcome for me is Kamala Harris having an epiphany over the root cause of climate change and denouncing the Green New Deal initiative as woefully unnecessary.

        I dream away..

      • Dave

        Not good enough. Tell us the specifics. I know, but you don’t. It can affect some but it depends. You said it would affect Jim and Curious George. You don’t know whether it does or not.

        Adjusted Gross Income increased by only 0.16% in Obama’s last year 2016. AGI went up by 14%, in 2017 and 2018, the latest data from the IRS. The change in taxes results from not indexing the child tax credit as was done on personal exemptions which was replaced by a larger standard deduction. That means those who don’t have child tax credits aren’t affected.

      • Joe - Dallas CPA

        “David Appell | November 3, 2020 at 11:39 pm |
        A Nobel Laureate gave you the facts. ”

        David – you keep repeating the same lie – “A Nobel Laureate gave you the facts”

        No he did not give us the facts – nor the citation – And you know that.
        Just because he is a NOBEL LAURREATE doesnt make him immune from providing a citation or statutory reference to support his claim. At no point in the article does provide any facts / statute or anything else to support his claim. Neither do you provide any statutory support for your statement.

        Not showing your Work may work in climate science – but it doesnt cut it in a professional career.

        I presume you are able to show your work, provide a citation,
        Remember you are the one that made the initial claim – it is up to you to prove your statement. Man up

    • David is doing the sillysybin silly dance around the facts. Typical liberal. Facts? I don’t need no damn facts!

      • A Nobel Laureate gave you the facts. Still you are going to deny them. Don’t dare try to confirm any the claims for yourself.

      • “A Nobel Laureate gave you the facts. Still you are going to deny them. Don’t dare try to confirm any the claims for yourself.”

        No facts – The “Gold Standard ” of Climate Science

      • Curious George

        Trump’s tax reduction will expire in 2027. How about a Biden’s tax reduction? None, only an increase?

    • As usual Mr. Appleman, you have no idea what you are talking about. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act made significant changes to individual income taxes and the estate tax. Almost all these provisions expire after 2025, while most business provisions are permanent. You sure know how to P ile it H igh and D eep, Mr. alleged Ph.D.

      • The CliffClavenOfFinance

        Mr. Appleman:
        Either perfesser Stigliz is deliberately lying, or he is misinformed. Your usual logical fallacy — an appeal to authority — prevents you from doing independent thinking, on all subjects.

        Tax rates do not change in 2021. Tax rate brackets and standard deductions are among the numbers adjusted for inflation EVERY YEAR by the IRS. That is not considered a tax hike. A smarmy leftist might try to spin those inflation adjustments as a tax increase, but that would be deliberately misleading people.

        The New York Times spent four years falsely accusing President Trump of Russian collusion, with no evidence at all. They never retracted all their false claims, after four official investigations found nothing. The New York Times is a highly leftist biased newspaper that can not be counted on for truth. Truth is not a leftist value.

  12. Everett F Sargent


    The poors get hammered. Standard fare though for the Pubz warped sense of equality.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Cuts_and_Jobs_Act_of_2017#Distribution

  13. Donald Trump to go to supreme court – although it is not clear how or why – to stop vote count. In another breaking news story – Pence says vote counting will continue.

    • Link, please.

    • Yes, in his speech from the east room around 2am our time(uk) trump made a Perfectly reasonable speech then bizarrely said in a calm voice that the figures were wrong and that he was going to the supreme court.

      He gave no reasons and did not elaborate on his comment. If he had grounds why not state them?

      I hear afterwards that those looking for a conspiracy, claim hundreds of thousands of Biden votes were suddenly dumped onto the results changing it from a likely win for trump to a likely win for Biden, but surely that is unlikely as it could readily be traced back?

      Tonyb

  14. Everett F Sargent

    IANAL, but AFAIK. there is no such thing as a direct appeal to the SCOTUS in the US Constitution. State courts, federal courts and then maybe the SCOTUS will decide whether to take up various lower court decisions. Same as it ever was. The votes will be counted. What happens after that is anyone’s guess.

    • Well, Johnathon Turley described the litigation pathway ahead. It was always the case that absent a landslide (didn’t happen) both sides would contest the outcomes in close states. So once the first count is done, there will be litigation over rulings by state judges that arguably meddled with the voting rules set down by state legislatures. If judges said something contrary to legislative mandates, that will have to be addressed in the recounts. Then the recounts will ensue with scrutiny by both sides, with possible further litigation over procedural flaws. It could be months before it is all resolved, and it may involve the Supremes at some point.

  15. The power of Hurrican Eta filmed in Nicaragua:

  16. “Climate change: US formally withdraws from Paris agreement”:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science-environment-54797743

  17. It’s a tight fought battle and here’s the details explained so far:

  18. Here’s an example of how a concept can be misinterpreted across an entire scientific community imo:

    “Changes in global sea level have been ongoing throughout the Earth’s geological history, driven by the growth and decay of ice sheets…The Last Glacial Maximum is the most recent time that ice sheets were at their greatest extent. Around 33,000 to 20,000 years ago, much of the Northern Hemisphere was covered by large ice sheets.”

    https://researchoutreach.org/articles/coastline-evolution-rise-fall-sea-level-time/

    This terminology suggests that the *height* of glaciers was at their maximum around 25,000 years ago, which is towards the end of the 100,000-year glacial cycle. I’m convinced that what they’ve been measuring is the point in time when the thinning glacial ice sheets have suddenly retreated. This is to be expected when once thick glaciers undergo melting to a point when they begin to disappear at high rate.

    There’s a very subtle difference in imagery that this phrase can give. I’m convinced that the maximum *volume* of glaciers occurred around the middle of the 100,000-year cycle, which is inline with a bell curve increase in precipitation at high latitudes.

    This view supports the modified gravity theory, increasing tidal energy via orbital inclination forcing.

  19. Pingback: U.S. Election Discussion Thread — Climate Etc. | lifeunderwriter.net

  20. This election provides a great but scary example of how to get fools to vote against their own self-interests.

    • Of only there were more people that were smart enough to listen to you explaining to them how foolish they are.

      Or if only more people would listen to you explaining how elitist they are.

      • Joshua – if you can drop the sarcasm and get real for a minute, what benefit do you see in a Dimowit run Federal Government?

        Let’s assume for the sake of discussion that Dimowits control both houses of Congress and the Presidency. What goals would be pursued? Can you give some concrete examples?

      • Jim –

        You use an expression like “dimowits” and then ask to “get real?”

        I shouldn’t bother because it appears you’re not serious despite your appeal otherwise – but it is my hope that irrespective of the partisan makeup of the government, infrastructure becomes an actual goal. Give people good jobs improving the infrastructure of the country. Seems to me like an idea that should get broad bipartisan support unless people are just full on committed to being obstructionist for fear of making the president (I assume Trump) look good.

      • I would be for infrastructure improvements in general, but would have to see details before I sign off.

        No one on TV is willing to call who won President, but barring some miracle, it appears to be Biden.

        I like much of what Trump has done.
        1. Reduced regulations so business can use money spent on compliance elsewhere.
        2. Reduced taxes on the middle class and the poor.
        3. Community zones to help minority neighborhoods.
        4. Encouraged and achieved energy independence.
        5. Reduced our exposure to foreign wars.
        6. Renegotiated trade pacts to effect gains for the US.
        7. Took a hard line with China.
        8. Encouraged companies to bring jobs back to the US.
        9. Called out NATO members to pay their fair share towards their own defense.
        10. Negotiated the beginnings of peace in the Middle East. Not there yet, but have a very innovative approach and good start.
        11. Got out of the Paris agreement which penalized the US and favored our primary threat, China.

        You may not agree with all those, but I was wondering what your list would look like for Biden.

      • joe - the non economist

        “You use an expression like “dimowits” and then ask to “get real?””

        He is getting real – socialism has failed and brought less wealth and prosperity every where it has been tried. Yet the dimowits continue to embrace it.
        People are fleeing socialist countries to get away from the economic ruin,
        Yet dimowits continue to embrace it.

        Please note the scandinavian countries are not socialist

    • White House sources confirmed that Donald Trump was a cheap 4 year date – but that now the carnival is over.

  21. Demz are underperforming the polls in state legislatures. That could mean that there will be a closer balance between the House balance and the popular vote for House candidates. Which in a way (from a non-partisan perspective) is a good thing. But until we can look at the actual numbers, it could just be a reflection of more years of gerrymandering and it could mean that the imbalance has gotten worse.

    • Gross conceptual error. That a democrat may win in a landslide in NYC does not make a narrow republican win in a suburb less legitimate.

  22. Businesses in the San Francisco Bay area are boarding up. They are not expecting hurricane ETA, but election results ..

  23. As I write, the counts look more favorable for Biden than for Trump, but Republicans hold the Senate and increase their count in the House. If the latter two prove out, the major parts of Trump’s legacy will remain. Congress so composed will not: move the US embassy to Israel back to Tel Aviv (pres Biden could so order, but US law recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and Dems have been largely supportive of the move in past campaigns); reimpose the individual mandate in Obamacare; repeal the tax cuts; re-negotiate the trade agreements; impose the Paris Accord on the US; re-impose restrictions on CO2 emissions.

    Biden will curtail AG Barr’s investigations into Democratic skullduggery.

    I don’t believe Biden’s election will (would) affect the SARS CoV-2 pandemic/endemic — vaccines will be produced on the same “schedule” as now underway.

    Reportedly, the turnout at 67% was the highest since 1908. How much fraud there has actually been is hard to assess (there is always some) but the experiment with mail-in voting seems to have worked.

    • “Reportedly, the turnout at 67% was the highest since 1908. How much fraud there has actually been is hard to assess (there is always some) but the experiment with mail-in voting seems to have worked.”

      bearing in mind that many on both sides considered this election to be of fundamental importance it seems extraordinary that one third of the electorate could not be bothered to vote

      tonyb

  24. If the democrats win the presidency it’s only because they found someone who’s not Bernie to put up against Trump.

    https://reason.com/2020/11/03/dont-declare-a-mandate-because-you-dont-have-one/

    • And Commielah will be President, not Hiden Biden.

    • Biden appeals to a more traditional Democrat base – as Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders couldn’t. The rust belt results are especially telling.

      And Jim should keep his repetition of juvenile jibes to the schoolyard. Now that Biden is on the cusp of givin’ Trump a hidin’.

  25. It now appears Joe Biden is on his way to victory in a closely fought election. What will president-elect Biden do about climate change when he takes office in January, 2021?

    If human-driven climate change is in fact the urgent crisis climate activists say that it is, President Biden has no other choice morally or ethically but to immediately impose a program of strict carbon fuel rationing on the American people, doing so as soon as he enters the White House.

    Back in mid-September, 2020, I posted a plan on WUWT for reducing America’s carbon emissions 80% by 2050. That target was former President Obama’s original goal as he stated it in 2012.

    The plan is entitled the Supply Side Carbon Emission Control Plan (SSCECP). It uses a series of executive orders which combine existing provisions of the Clean Air Act with existing provisions of national security legislation to create an integrated regulatory approach for increasing the cost of all carbon fuels and for systematically restricting their future availability.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/09/16/republican-led-commission-recommends-a-carbon-tax/#comment-3085304

    The SSCECP uses the power of the federal government to create and enforce an artificial shortage of carbon fossil fuels. It directly raises the price of all carbon fuels while directly reducing their future availability and supply, doing so through a process of imposing increasingly severe restrictions on their extraction, import, production, and distribution.

    The plan employs EPA-administered carbon pollution fines as the functional equivalent of a legislated tax on carbon. This approach supplies a powerful incentive for the state governments to participate in directly regulating America’s carbon emissions by assigning them the great bulk of the revenues produced from the EPA’s carbon pollution fines.

    As a further measure, a joint inter-agency Carbon Fuels Control Board (CFCB) is established to manage and enforce a phased systematic reduction in the production and distribution of all carbon fuels.

    In addition, as a practical expediency, the SSCECP keeps the import, production, and distribution of carbon fuels in private hands. Rather than nationalizing the oil and gas industry, the plan enlists private corporations as contracted agents in managing the government’s energy rationing programs.

    The federal government also guarantees a steady and healthy rate return from the sale of all carbon fuels produced by those private corporations which choose to cooperate in managing the SSCECP’s phased series of GHG reductions.

    The SSCECP is completely legal and constitutional. Under current law, it can be implemented unilaterally by the Executive Branch using its existing environmental protection and national security authorities. Not another word of new legislation is needed from Congress either to enable the plan legally or to fund its operation.

    As long as the plan is applied fairly and with equal force against all sources of America’s GHG emissions, and with equal impact against all sectors of the economy, it will survive any lawsuits brought against it.

    In any case, the fact remains that if reducing carbon emissions is the main goal, not simply creating green energy jobs, then a plan very similar to the SSCECP — one which uses the coercive power of the federal government to quickly reduce America’s GHG emissions — is the only way to get from here to there within the short timeframe climate activists say is necessary.

    • Why make it so complicated, it can be done way more easily than that?

      From day 1, ban fossil fuel.
      No more coal, oil or gas, diesel or petroleum (gasoline). Not in ships, planes, cars, lorries, homes, businesses, anywhere.
      Demolish all coal and gas power stations.
      And nuclear ones too.
      Ban home heating with gas, coal, oil or wood.
      Only energy from wind, solar and wave energy permitted and electricity from thence.

      An easy solution to the problem that the USA is to the world.

    • COVID-19 is likely to have changed these projections. A key to energy emission reductions in the US is natural gas. So we have pathways that diverge from this Beta Blocker straw man scenario.

      Emission reduction – it goes well beyond energy emissions or even carbon dioxide – is not just compatible with economic growth. To date it is associated with efficiency, productivity and pollution reduction.

      Click to access Summary%20Report%20Australias%202030%20Emission%20Reduction%20Target.pdf

      At this stage it is not particularly difficult. What needs to be understood is the sources of emissions and how each may be reduced. The biggest opportunity in the short to medium term is in the land use sector. Ultimately 21st century cost competitive nuclear energy is required.

      Land management is a key to food security, flood and drought mitigation, declining water tables, erosion and nutrient pollution and biodiversity,

      Solutions are remarkably simple. Trust me – I worked in the field for 40 years – and I am a simple man.

      • Robert, every element of technology and resource management you have described above will play some part in the transition from here to there — ‘there’ being an 80% reduction in America’s GHG emissions by 2050.

        However, strictly enforced energy conservation measures can and must be the most important resource management tool we use in making the transition to the 80% GHG reduction target.

        Spend all the money you want to on low carbon energy technology and on land use planning policies. Americans must still be using half as much energy on a per-capita basis in 2050 as they do today in 2020. Energy conservation is the only way to close the gap between what low-carbon technology can do for us and what the 80% reduction target demands.

        The Supply Side Carbon Emission Control Plan (SSCECP) creates a GHG emission control framework which builds upon the experience of the past fifty years in using Executive Branch agencies as the primary agents of coordination in managing the reduction of substances we identify as dangerous pollutants.

        Under the SSCECP framework, the US-EPA, the US-DOE, the US-DHS, the fifty state governments, and the affected industries and local governments will work together to determine the low level planning approach and the process implementation details, just as these agencies have been doing for the last fifty years.

        The most difficult task the SSCECP faces is to enforce the emission reduction targets in a way which spreads the pain of the transition process equally among all socio-economic groups and among all sectors of the economy.

        If the agencies involved in managing the SSCECP fail to spread the impacts of the transition fairly among all those who have a stake in the outcome, then it will be thwarted by the many lawsuits certain to be brought against it.

      • Americans and everyone else will use vastly more energy this century.

      • This study says we can go 100% SWB (Solar/Wind/Battery) by 2030*.

        Click to access Rethinking+Energy+2020-2030.pdf

        *I assume for some geographic areas.

        “We are on the cusp of the most profound disruption of the energy sector since the advent of electricity itself over a century ago. The costs of solar photovoltaic power, onshore wind, and lithium-ion battery energy storage (SWB) have plummeted over the last two decades, and they will fall another 70%, 40% and 80% respectively during the 2020s as their adoption continues to grow exponentially worldwide. The convergence of SWB now offers an electricity solution that coal, gas, nuclear and other conventional energy technologies can no longer compete with.

        In California, for example, a 100% SWB system with 3.8x more generating capacity than the state’s existing grid would need only 37 hours’ worth of batteries. The cost to build these assets between now and 2030 would be $115 billion. That’s $11.5 billion for ten years, or 0.35% of California’s $3.2 trillion GDP. The cost of electricity from this system would be less than 3 cents per kilowatt-hour, which would not only be the cheapest available option for new power generation but would be less expensive than continuing to operate most conventional power plants in the state as well.”

        My comment: By overbuilding the RE segment it could be done but they better have a plan to deal with recycling and disrupting the environment with huge solar/wind farms. Second thought, my personal experience was to 1st. slash my consumption by both adopting life style and technological changes to my home (zoned A/C/LEDs etc.) and then I sized my array to match. All in I cut my annual energy use by 60% (more than I planed) and came out generating more excess KWh.

      • Although I am all for energy efficiency – the world as a whole is energy poor. This is the near term future for an energy rich world. In the meantime people will continue to use coal, gas and oil.

      • Robert,
        You need to spice up your SMR sales pitch. People aren’t buying the projections or the costs.
        “At least eight cities have now dropped shares in the Carbon Free Power Project (CFPP), a 720-MWe NuScale Power small modular reactor (SMR) project proposed by Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS). Despite the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Oct.16–announced $1.4 billion, 10-year award to fund one-time costs for the first-of-a-kind project, four Utah cities withdrew this week alone, and the decisions of at least three others are pending. ”
        https://www.powermag.com/shakeup-for-720-mw-nuclear-smr-project-as-more-cities-withdraw-participation/

      • We will see. How much is high security and capacity energy worth in an industrial economy?

        https://watertechbyrie.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/em-break-even.png?w=563&h=329

        Being practical – no one serious is contemplating translating your ‘SWB’ into a continent spanning energy system.

      • On September 16th. 2020 FERC issued Order 2222 and it does exactly what I’m talking about. It’s already happening Robert.
        utilitydive . com/news/ferc-order-2222-should-be-a-watershed-moment-grid-operators-can-help-ensu/588346/
        microgridknowledge . com/ferc-order-2222-distributed-energy/

      • I have no problem with markets working efficiently. You should get wholesale spot prices and pay a fair share of grid costs. If you aren’t – that isn’t an efficient market.

      • It really rubs you the wrong way that that I earn a few shekels from my RE investments. Please buy some of my RECs(Renewable Energy Credits) and help a bloke out, aye mate?
        https://www.greenmountainenergy.com/home-energy-solutions/carbon-offsets/
        I always thought I supported efficient markets that include all costs but after the banking system introduced negative sovereign debt interest rates I realized it was just libertarian propaganda. Kind of like when FF companies go bankrupt and leave their abandoned wells and mines for the tax payers to clean up.

      • So you can’t earn them honestly then.

      • FYI; As a private citizen I don’t get to claim depreciation on my RE assets and I am responsible for the maintenance and safe disposal and recycling of the system components so a portion of my earned credits* will be used to cover that expense.
        So if my government gives me a tax credit to buy a grid connected 80KWh battery should I be forced let the grid operator control it or can I arbitrage the spot market and make a killing when the wholesale price spikes like the gas plants do? I wish honesty=legal but since nobody trusts anybody else you work with what you have.
        *Under the terms of my utility provider it does not have to pay interest on credit balances.

      • Joe - The non economist

        Jacksmith 4 TX comment- “So if my government gives me a tax credit to buy a grid connected 80KWh battery”

        I am assuming you understand the supply and demand curve, and you therefore understand the seller is the one who obtains the almost the entire benefit of those credits.

      • Joe - The non economist

        Jacksmith4TX comment – “This study says we can go 100% SWB (Solar/Wind/Battery) by 2030*.”

        If this was feasable – then you gotta wonder why Mark jacobson and others arent commanding multimillion $ consulting fees for their expertise.

        Or just maybe, companies will real world expertise have evaluated the costs

      • Joe – The non economist,
        I thought that’s the way it works. All those solar panels leased by Tesla’s Solar City subsidiary accrued the credits to the parent company not the home owner. Same thing with leasing a Nissan Leaf or Chevy Volt or Bolt in that the federal EV tax credit goes to the leasing company. Since I own 100% of the asset I would assume the accounting is different.

      • joe - the non economist

        Jacksmith4tx –

        To clarify my comment – The market price of the Volt or Leaf is approx $26k. The buyer obtains a $4k tax credit. This tax credit creates an artificial demand curve / shifts the demand curve, such that the seller can sell the leaf/volt at $29-30k such that the seller proceeds increase by the amount of the credit (most but not all) . The buyer is still purchasing the car at the true market value (Marked up sales price less the tax credit).
        The size of the artificial shift in the demand curve is a function of the elastisity of the product

      • Joe,
        “The market price of the Volt or Leaf is approx $26k.”
        What!!
        The MSRP sticker price of a base model Volt was over $40k in 2011. The tax credit was $7,500 and you only get it *IF* you paid federal income tax before it expires.

        *Fun fact: Chevy developed the Volt under the Bush regime and when it introduced the 2011 model it was calculated that based on the R&D that went into the development of the novel gas/electric car it would have to sell for over $70,000 just to break even. The original Volt production schedule called for a run rate of over 200,000 a year to be profitable at the $40k price. Needless to say they lost money on every one they sold yet the Volt owners are some of the most loyal and satisfied of all GM customers until it was discontinued in 2019.

        So I bought a used 2013 Volt (14k miles) that had just come off a 2 year lease for $16,500 (no EV credit). Fantastic car if it fits your needs.

    • Beta and Phil – Unless the Dimowits win the Senate, they won’t be doing much at all about “climate change” AKA “global warming.”

      • jim2, a newly inaugurated President Biden doesn’t need buy-in from the US Senate to pursue a plan like the Supply Side Carbon Emission Control Plan (SSCECP).

        Fifty years of environmental legislation places responsibility for controlling and reducing emissions of substances identified as pollutants into the hands of the President and the EPA. The US Supreme Court has ruled that the process Obama’s EPA followed in identifying carbon emissions as pollutants under the Clean Air Act was proper and let the EPA’s 2009 endangerment finding for carbon stand.

        Other legislation places responsibility for management of critical national security issues into the hands of the president. If the world is indeed burning up because of human-generated carbon emissions, then it’s easy enough for the president to state that AGW is a national security threat as well as a global security threat and so falls under the scope of existing national security law.

        Nor does the plan require a separate line of funding in the federal government’s budget. The planning activities and regulation roll-out activities are easily accomplished within the existing spending authorities of the US-EPA, the US-DOE, and the US-DHS.

        Even if the House and the Senate were in Republican hands at some point in the next four years, and passed legislation specifically forbidding the adoption of a plan like the SSCECP, a presidential veto can kill that legislation with the stroke of a pen.

        A plan like the SSCECP will generate many lawsuits. If the plan is applied with equal force against all major sources of America’s carbon emissions and with equal impact upon all affected economic sectors, those lawsuits will go nowhere.

        The fact remains that the Executive Branch now has all the authority it needs to quickly reduce America’s carbon emissions on a highly aggressive fast-track schedule. A plan like the SSCECP fits entirely within that authority.

        What remains to be seen is whether or not President Elect Biden will use that authority when he takes office in January, 2021.

        If climate change is indeed the existential threat to our existence Joe Biden claims that it is, then he is ethically and morally obligated to act in accordance with his claims and quickly reduce America’s carbon emissions just as far and as fast as the law allows him to do.

      • Yep, Biden can still do a lot of damage without a Dimowit Senate. Let’s just hope the Trump team can pull off a miracle.

  26. Just saw a TV interview with a backer of losing Proposition 22 (California)”
    “We did not lose. Democracy lost.”
    What a strange interpretation of democracy. Is it democracy only if you win?

    • Ya I just heard similar logic on NPR. Complaining that it was all about the money spent. Ignoring that Prop 16 lost in spite of supporters spending 12 times what opponents spent.

      The woke left seem to be slow learners.

  27. Looks like there will be lawsuits involving four states. Maybe more. Crooked Hunter, crooked Joe, crooked Dimowits … you have to watch them all the times, if you can get close enough in, that is. Good thing ACB is firmly ensconced in the Supreme Court.

  28. Looks like there will be lawsuits involving four states. Maybe more. Kroook Ed Hunter, Kroook Ed Joe, Kroook EdDimowits … you have to watch them all the times, if you can get close enough in, that is. Good thing ACB is firmly ensconced in the Supreme Court.

  29. No “Week in Science” since September? Ah well.

    For angech and Arctic aficionados everywhere:

    https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/11/facts-about-the-arctic-in-november-2020/#Nov-04

    [This shows] Arctic sea ice volume to be lowest for the [end of October], even if extent has slipped into 2nd place:

    • On the principles of Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic dynamics – giving much credence to Jim’s short term eyeballing is giving it too much credit. One thousand years and sophisticated nonlinear math might be more impressive.

      “Since “panta rhei” was pronounced by Heraclitus, hydrology and the objects it studies, such as rivers and lakes, have offered grounds to observe and understand change and flux. Change occurs on all time scales, from minute to geological, but our limited senses and life span, as well as the short time window of instrumental observations, restrict our perception to the most apparent daily to yearly variations. As a result, our typical modelling practices assume that natural changes are just a short-term “noise” superimposed on the daily and annual cycles in a scene that is static and invariant in the long run. According to this perception, only an exceptional and extraordinary forcing can produce a long-term change. The hydrologist H.E. Hurst, studying the long flow records of the Nile and other geophysical time series, was the first to observe a natural behaviour, named after him, related to multi-scale change, as well as its implications in engineering designs. Essentially, this behaviour manifests that long-term changes are much more frequent and intense than commonly perceived and, simultaneously, that the future states are much more uncertain and unpredictable on long time horizons than implied by standard approaches. Surprisingly, however, the implications of multi-scale change have not been assimilated in geophysical sciences. A change of perspective is thus needed, in which change and uncertainty are essential parts ” https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/02626667.2013.804626

      • One small point. The Nile may be a piece of natural deception.
        Vide Plato (timaeus) “—. For there occurs at long intervals a derangement of the heavenly bodies, and then the earth
        is destroyed by fire. At such times, and when fire is the agent, those who
        dwell by rivers or on the seashore are safer than those who dwell upon
        high and dry places, who in their turn are safer when the danger is from
        water. Now the Nile is our saviour from fire, and as there is little rain in
        Egypt, we are not harmed by water; whereas in other countries, when a
        deluge comes, the inhabitants are swept by the rivers into the sea.”

        The Egyptians have no flood stories.

      • Water levels were measured on the inner column in cubits – about half a metre.

        http://www.waterhistory.org/histories/cairo/

        The level of the Nile had supreme importance for Egypt.

      • Mega,

        Are you a Nile denier?

      • “Panta Rhei” Robert?

        https://fineartamerica.com/featured/panta-rhei-kasia-turajczyk.html

        Everything is water, everything is energy, everything flows.

        Except when that water is frozen?

      • Jim – even ice flows

      • Alan,

        “Ice floes” surely?

      • My point is the Nile fluctuations may not indicate/record the abrupt and greater ‘dragon king’ floods other civilisations record. One can say we have that from the horse’s mouth – the priests of Sais. Yet it is believed the Harappan civilisation came to an end by floods (Mohenjo daro)

      • Dragon-kings in the sense of Didier Sornette – more scientific nomenclature – are events – floods and drought in this case – outside of power law limits.

        Click to access 1205.1002.pdf

        “By ‘Noah Effect’ we designate the observation that extreme precipitation can be very extreme indeed, and by ‘Joseph Effect’ the finding that a long period of unusual (high or low) precipitation can be extremely long. Current models of statistical hydrology cannot account for either effect and must be superseded. As a replacement, ‘self‐similar’ models appear very promising. They account particularly well for the remarkable empirical observations of Harold Edwin Hurst.” Benoit B. Mandelbrot James R. Wallis (1968) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/WR004i005p00909

      • Panta rhea is a metaphor for change. Ice changes.

      • Dragon kings as per Didier Sornette.
        In both Mohenjo Daro and in Mesopotamia, and at about the same time, there is abrupt agriculture failure. It is thought to be from increased soil salinity. Both areas were abandoned for long period.

        Irrigation can be the cause, but only if the water supply is brackish. Rain or river water from snow melt washes the salt (and the fertiliser). The soil is not harmed for decades. Now in both instances there was major flood. In both land productivity dropped very suddenly (Akkadian texts are clear on that). That points to the source of the salt to be possibly marine.

        Then check the dates, and the 4k2 event lights up.

  30. The Hurst-Kolmogorov has nothing to do with climate change.

    The Hurst-Kolmogorov doesn’t warm Earth’s surface.

    Stochastic dynamics do not produce energy…

    http://www. cristos-vournas.com

    • All – or very nearly – energy comes from the sun. It is stored in oceans overwhelmingly. Ice, dust, vegetation, cloud and water vapour change which modulate emissions and albedo varying ocean heat content and surface temperature.

      The map – a thermally enhanced satellite photo – shows September 2015 sea surface temperature anomalies – that is the difference from average temperatures over a period. – during the most recent El Niño. The oceans have a sun warmed surface layer overlaying the cold depths.

      Wind and planetary spin keep oceans and atmosphere constantly in motion in turbulent vortices. In places surface water sinks – driving deep ocean currents – and in others it upwells. Energy moves from the Sun to oceans and land from tropics to poles, to the atmosphere and out to space. It is technically a coupled, nonlinear system far from thermodynamic equilibrium.

      A characteristic behavior of the Grand Climate System is relatively stable states punctuated by abrupt shifts that owe more to internal dynamics of the system as a whole than external factors such as greenhouse gases. Traditionally called oscillations – they are Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic dynamics. Seen in Hurst’s analysis of 1000 years of Nile River flows – and in Kolmogorov’s observations of turbulence. They are shifts in spatio-temporal chaotic patterns of ocean and atmospheric circulation triggered by small changes in the Earth system. Such as orbits and greenhouse gases.

      • There’s much more energy in gravity coming from the sun compared to sunshine.

      • Alan, gravity is a force, not energy.

      • Conceived of as force in a Newtonian universe or space-time curvature by Einstein. Either works well enough.

      • Robert:

        “Seen in Hurst’s analysis of 1000 years of Nile River flows – and in Kolmogorov’s observations of turbulence.”

        “Wind and planetary spin keep oceans and atmosphere constantly in motion in turbulent vortices. ”

        “Traditionally called oscillations – they are Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic dynamics.”

        To summarize – turbulence is a phenomenon which is observed all the time. Since Heraclitus’ “panta rhei”.
        Therefore let’s consider everything as a turbulence, but in different time scales.

        Weather is a turbulence from a few hours to a few days scale.
        Seasons is turbulence a year long scale.

        El Niño is a turbulence four years scale.

        Glacial-interglacial is a turbulence 21,700 years.

        Deep glaciation is a turbulence 100,000 – 400,000 years long.

        Solar system lifespan is a turbulence 10,000,000,000 years.
        Maybe even more – I am optimistic.

        http://www.cristos-vournas.com

      • Climate is a fluid flow problem. Vortices form in one place or another in the coupled ocean/atmosphere flow field. Perturb the flow a little and the flow patterns shift. It is simple hydraulics. Perturb the flow with CO2 levels steadily rising and expect surprises.

        https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/equirectangular

        But you’re still at the stage of it’s a trace gas and so cannot have an effect. Honestly – there is nothing I want to do with that.

      • David, I was bring poetical.

        “Force fields (gravitational, electric, and magnetic) contain energy and can transmit energy across space from one object to another. … Each force between the two interacting objects acts in the direction such that motion in that direction would reduce the energy in the force field between the objects.”

        Incidentally, I believe in the graviton as a spinning helical ‘corkscrew’ particle which is a force-carrier of attraction due it’s shape and structure.

        Dark energy would be the effect of gravitons that have travelled around a hypersphere appearing to impart a force of repulsion relative to their origin.

      • This is from your PS3C quote source I believe. There are basic Newtonian physics.

        Quantum gravitons as a hypothetical particle mediating gravitational fields may be sciency sounding – but are not relevant at the macroscopic level you and you alone seem concerned with.

      • Professor Claudia de Rham is a Swiss theoretical physicist working at the interface of gravity, cosmology and particle physics. She is based at Imperial College London and is known for her work on ‘massive gravity’ ie. “can a graviton have mass?”

      • There is a physical world as we know it and it doesn’t seem to matter whether gravitons exist or whether they have mass or not. The heat in oceans overwhelmingly comes from electromagnetic radiation from the sun. You need to get out more.

      • A graviton explanation for gravity allows for orbital forcing other than solar electromagnetic.

        The very deep oceans are known to be warming.

        When I achieve some recognition & success, I certainly hope to have a more active social life.

      • I was thinking more of the sun on your face.

        Of course the deep oceans are warming and I’ll wait until you have some science on graviton climate forcing. LOL

      • Robert I. Ellison wrote:
        Conceived of as force in a Newtonian universe or space-time curvature by Einstein

        Obviously. In neither conception is gravity per se an energy.

      • Alan,

        Gravitational energy (gravitational waves) only flows from the Sun if/when the Sun’s shape is changing — if doesn’t happen if the shape is static. Of course, its shape changes minutely all the time, but the amount of gravitational energy radiated would be tiny. For example, the amount of gravitational power radiated by the entire Sun-Earth orbital system is only 200 W, and it includes a lot of moving mass.

        Lowey wrote:
        Dark energy would be the effect of gravitons that have travelled around a hypersphere appearing to impart a force of repulsion relative to their origin.

        Sorry Alan, but this is pseudoscientific mumbo-jumbo.

      • Alan Lowey wrote:
        A graviton explanation for gravity allows for orbital forcing other than solar electromagnetic.

        Well, the orbital forcings, such as the Milankovitch cycles, are created by changes in Earth’s orbital parameters, i.e. its position, which are created by gravity (obviously). That then alters how much solar EM radiation they receive.

      • “Sorry Alan, but this is pseudoscience mumbo-jumbo” – David Appell

        Cutting edge physics & philosophy isn’t your area of expertise David.

      • ‘Dark energy would be the effect of gravitons that have travelled around a hypersphere appearing to impart a force of repulsion relative to their origin.’

        There’s no doubt that it’s ‘leading edge physics’ that’s good for a hearty laugh.

      • Robert – I was impressed with successful introduction of sand dam technology in Africa, which enables preservation of clean drinking water in arid areas.

        I have another low tech clever idea which could improve the lives of rural Africans and elsewhere. Currently the burning of wood inside homes leads to millions of cases of lung cancer. It makes more sense to kiln dry the wood first to remove the moisture, do that no smoke would be produced. Surprisingly, there’s an inexpensive way of doing this, which I’ve experimented on myself.

        It involves the burning of gases at high temperature which would otherwise escape out of the chimney. An insulated metal tube (using volcanic rock) is placed inside an insulated metal stove burner. The extra burn creates a ‘rocket’ effect, producing a high draw of air intake. The outflow is so hot and powerful it could be used for underfloor heating as well as kiln drying logs.

        It’s a remarkable satisfying experience. I hope to build a new design with overnight damping and a seperate clear air warming coiled tube within the stove. Hopefully the farmer where I’m located won’t be too obstructive in my pursuits.

      • Robert,
        “Of course the deep oceans are warming…”

        The ARGO data which you show to confirm deep ocean heating are very peculiar.
        At the depth stations from 400m to 1500m, the temperature gain is all around 0.03 deg C. However, at 1900m the temperature gain jumps to around 0.07 deg C (after accounting for the different temperature scales).

        Do you have a credible explanation for how the deeper ocean can warm at over twice the rate of the waters above it?
        It seems unlikely to be Bjerknes/Walker since the main heating period (2010+) is dominated by El Nino conditions. Is there any evidence supporting a reduction of cold polar waters entering the subpolar gyres or the Antarctic circumpolar current?

      • Alan Lowey wrote:
        Cutting edge physics & philosophy isn’t your area of expertise David

        Alan, cite me a physics journal paper that backs up your explanation. Or a preprint in the arXiv.

      • Alan Lowey wrote:
        Cutting edge physics & philosophy isn’t your area of expertise David

        Couldn’t cite any papers, huh Alan?

        Why am I not surprised.

      • Robert:
        “Perturb the flow with CO2 levels steadily rising and expect surprises.

        https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/equirectangular

        But you’re still at the stage of it’s a trace gas and so cannot have an effect. Honestly – there is nothing I want to do with that.”

        Carbon dioxide content in Earth’s atmosphere is about 400 ppm (parts per million). Carbon dioxide’s content in the Earth’s atmosphere is characterized as a trace gas.
        What “trace gas” means by definition?
        It means that its content is very small to be detected easily. It means its content is so insignificant to any applications, to any usage of air, that its presence in atmosphere can be neglected whatsoever.

        http://www.cristos-vournas.com

      • Christos Vournas wrote:
        What “trace gas” means by definition?
        It means that its content is very small to be detected easily. It means its content is so insignificant to any applications, to any usage of air, that its presence in atmosphere can be neglected whatsoever.

        Christos, ozone is a “trace gas.” It’s maximum level in the atmosphere, even in the ozone layer, is less than 10 parts per million (10 ppm). Without it we’d all be dead.

        You need to rethink your ideas of a “trace gas.”

      • David wrote:

        “Christos, ozone is a “trace gas.” It’s maximum level in the atmosphere, even in the ozone layer, is less than 10 parts per million (10 ppm). Without it we’d all be dead.”

        Can you prove that?

        Ozone layer
        From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

        “… The ozone layer contains less than 10 parts per million of ozone, while the average ozone concentration in Earth’s atmosphere as a whole is about 0.3 parts per million. The ozone layer is mainly found in the lower portion of the stratosphere, from approximately 15 to 35 kilometers (9.3 to 21.7 mi) above Earth, although its thickness varies seasonally and geographically.”

        “… Measurements of the sun showed that the radiation sent out from its surface and reaching the ground on Earth is usually consistent with the spectrum of a black body with a temperature in the range of 5,500–6,000 K (5,227 to 5,727 °C), except that there was no radiation below a wavelength of about 310 nm at the ultraviolet end of the spectrum. It was deduced that the missing radiation was being absorbed by something in the atmosphere…”

        “… Eventually the spectrum of the missing radiation was matched to only one known chemical, ozone.[2] Its properties were explored in detail by the British meteorologist G. M. B. Dobson, who developed a simple spectrophotometer (the Dobsonmeter) that could be used to measure stratospheric ozone from the ground. Between 1928 and 1958, Dobson established a worldwide network of ozone monitoring stations, which continue to operate to this day. The “Dobson unit”, a convenient measure of the amount of ozone overhead, is named in his honor.”

        Very interesting article.

        What we learn here is that:

        “…the average ozone concentration in Earth’s atmosphere as a whole is about 0.3 parts per million.”

        “… except that there was no radiation below a wavelength of about 310 nm at the ultraviolet end of the spectrum. It was deduced that the missing radiation was being absorbed by something in the atmosphere…”

        “… The ozone layer absorbs 97 to 99 percent of the Sun’s medium-frequency ultraviolet light (from about 200 nm to 315 nm wavelength), which otherwise would potentially damage exposed life forms near the surface.”

        “… The ozone layer (which absorbs from about 200 nm to 310 nm with a maximal absorption at about 250 nm)[7] is very effective at screening out UV-B; for radiation with a wavelength of 290 nm, the intensity at the top of the atmosphere is 350 million times stronger than at the Earth’s surface. Nevertheless, some UV-B, particularly at its longest wavelengths, reaches the surface, and is important for the skin’s production of vitamin D.”

        Now, let’s see what we have here:

        “… The ozone layer is mainly found in the lower portion of the stratosphere, from approximately 15 to 35 kilometers (9.3 to 21.7 mi) above Earth…”

        “… the intensity at the top of the atmosphere is 350 million times stronger than at the Earth’s surface.”

        “… It was deduced that the missing radiation was being absorbed by something in the atmosphere…”

        “… the average ozone concentration in Earth’s atmosphere as a whole is about 0.3 parts per million.”

        I doubt you can prove that the 0.3 parts per million in Earth’s atmosphere ozone protects us from UV-B 350 million times stronger radiation intensity than at the Earth’s surface.

        http://www.cristos-vournas.com

        “… It was deduced that the missing radiation was being absorbed by something in the atmosphere…”

      • “I doubt you can prove that the 0.3 parts per million in Earth’s atmosphere ozone protects us from UV-B 350 million times stronger radiation intensity than at the Earth’s surface.”

        You just quoted extensively from a children’s educational website I linked to. It was better information than Alan’s – but it didn’t cutting and pasting in totality. Now we have Wikipedia. But I take it that the statement above – as incoherent as it is – is the bottom line.

        But this is about correct – based on millions of observations – for greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Whether you call it a trace gas or not.

    • We are always in a very slow orbital forced climate change vortex.

      http://www.cristos-vournas.com

      • Scientific nomenclature like Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic dynamics is well defined – words like vortex have an ordinary meaning.

      • I agree with the “very slow orbital forced climate change” part, Christos.

      • Over periods of 1000 years even orbits change. Climate – including hydrology – can change dramatically..Believe as you like in slow orbital changes – abrupt climate change has a different explanation that neither of these guys even see the need for. .

      • Christos Vournas wrote:
        We are always in a very slow orbital forced climate change vortex.

        What does the word “vortex” mean in this context?

      • Robert I. Ellison wrote:
        Believe as you like in slow orbital changes – abrupt climate change has a different explanation that neither of these guys even see the need for. .

        And climate scientists are well aware of abrupt climate change — they discovered it — and have been warning about its possibility for many years now. The National Academy of Sciences has published two books about it. But there’s little understanding of how to calculate when it will occur, only that you don’t want to tempt it by letting large amounts of ice melt and altering large ocean currents.

      • “There’s little understanding of how to calculate when it will occur” – David Appell

        That’s because there’s little understanding of the driver of abrupt climate change cycles aka Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events:

        https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/abrupt-climate-change/Heinrich and Dansgaard–Oeschger Events

    • A ten thousand years glaciation process is an abrupt event in 4.5 billion years solar system exists.
      Do not consider billion years as too much of the time.

      The solar system’s very existence is an abrupt event in the eternal time scale.

      http://www.cristos-vournas.com

      • “What defines a climate change as abrupt? Technically, an abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to cross some threshold, triggering a transition to a new state at a rate determined by the climate system itself and faster than the cause. Chaotic processes in the climate system may allow the cause of such an abrupt climate change to be undetectably small.” NAS, 2002, Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises

        Again we have the problem of a scientific nomenclature that is defined as one thing and assumed to be something else based on the ordinary meaning of words.

      • In November 5, 2020 at 8:13 pm | comment above Robert posted an interesting grapheme.
        We can observe on the grapheme the abrupt climate changes.

        These abrupt climate changes occur in the 50 to 100 thousand years time periods – they are very slow changes, compared to the human lifespan.

        We cannot be threatened by the very slowly developing natural climate change.

        http://www.cristos-vournas.com

      • Christos – exactly right. The changes appear exaggerated due to alarmist reporting of the data. Technology means that extreme weather events are filmed from all over the world and viewed in unprecedented detail in front of our eyes. It’s both true and an illusion. The climate has always changed. Humanity needs to accept this and learn to adapt. It’s what we’ve always done.

      • The abrupt changes in temperature compared to slow orbital changes was what I had in mind. And as hydrologist Dimitris Koutsoyiannis says change is perpetual – and sometimes extreme.

        “By ‘Noah Effect’ we designate the observation that extreme precipitation can be very extreme indeed, and by ‘Joseph Effect’ the finding that a long period of unusual (high or low) precipitation can be extremely long.” Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1968

        Closer to home in space and time – we may begin to trace causes and describe mechanism. Remembering the Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic dynamical nature of climate. That I have labored enough with these two for the present.

        ” Here, we use the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product, in conjunction with radiative forcing estimates, to demonstrate that megadroughts in the American Southwest were driven by unusually frequent and cold central tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) excursions in conjunction with anomalously warm Atlantic SSTs and a locally positive radiative forcing. This assessment of past megadroughts provides the first comprehensive theory for the causes of megadroughts and their clustering particularly during the Medieval era. This work also provides the first paleoclimatic support for the prediction that the risk of American Southwest megadroughts will markedly increase with global warming.” https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/7/eaax0087

        Only to note that Pacific sea surface temperatures are quite likely to change again quite radically. There are surprises in store. This from the other side of the Pacific.

        “Over the last 1010 yr, the LD summer sea salt (LDSSS) record has exhibited two below-average (El Niño–like) epochs, 1000–1260 ad and 1920–2009 ad, and a longer above-average (La Niña–like) epoch from 1260 to 1860 ad. Spectral analysis shows the below-average epochs are associated with enhanced ENSO-like variability around 2–5 yr, while the above-average epoch is associated more with variability around 6–7 yr. The LDSSS record is also significantly correlated with annual rainfall in eastern mainland Australia. While the correlation displays decadal-scale variability similar to changes in the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), the LDSSS record suggests rainfall in the modern instrumental era (1910–2009 ad) is below the long-term average. In addition, recent rainfall declines in some regions of eastern and southeastern Australia appear to be mirrored by a downward trend in the LDSSS record, suggesting current rainfall regimes are unusual though not unknown over the last millennium.”
        https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/26/3/710/33481/A-Millennial-Proxy-Record-of-ENSO-and-Eastern

        The unanswered question as our nonlinear world is driven into unfamiliar territory is what other surprises might emerge. An interesting but largely academic question. The world is moving to sequester large amounts of carbon in agricultural soils and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is a resource. We will transition to 21st century new nuclear energy sources.

      • Christos Vournas wrote:
        These abrupt climate changes occur in the 50 to 100 thousand years time periods – they are very slow changes, compared to the human lifespan.

        The transition to the Younger Dryas is thought to have taken about a decade, maybe less.

  31. The one thing that is abundantly clear with this election: the pollsters are terrible. Their product is as reliable as climate change models.
    Trafalgar was not 100% directionally correct this time, but they were still far, far more accurate than mainstream polls.
    Also what is clear: no blue tide. no red tide. Republicans won’t gain control of House but will pick up ~18-20 seats and will retain Senate majority.
    Trump did better with every demographic group except white men (!).

    • Agreed, Susan Collins (Maine) was supposed to lose by about 5-7%, instead it appears she has won by about 8%. How do they get it so wrong? Polling is a much more simple task than modelling climate or disease progression. What the hell are they doing that throws off their results so badly?

      I suppose it is possible people are just lying to them to mess with their results…

      To continue a theme I started up thread. I am also sick of people who lose elections claiming they lost because of the corruption of politics by money. Democrats heavily outspent Republicans in an attempt to flip the Senate and it appears they have failed. It is logical nonsense, and insulting to the electorate to believe voters aren’t capable of seeing past the massive spending in politics. If money was everything in politics this election would have been Bloomberg vs Steyer. There is a steep point of diminishing returns on money in politics IMO.

      • Curious George

        “Earth’s atmosphere hit a catastrophic new peak of carbon pollution.”
        David, your reference to a “carbon pollution” removes any pretense to objectivity. I’ll call it a pollution.

      • It’s the epitome of irony that the oil industry employed the scientists that started the ‘manmade global warming’ fiasco in the first place.

      • Exxon is an oil and gas company. They love climate activists- nobody else is silly enough to force countries to switch from nuclear to natural gas in the name of “CO2 reductions.”
        Of all the people posting on this site, the only one it would make sense for Exxon to pay would be David Appell.
        The only threat climate activists pose to Exxon is via China – where the activists promote moving western manufacturing so that it can be powered by coal. Exxon would prefer it remain in Europe and America where the activists want manufacturing powered by gas.

      • lol That’s funny. Exxon predicted that an almost perfectly linear trend would continue increasing linearly. If only the rest of climate science were so easy.

      • That report seems to make clear that the real world effects of CO2 on the atmosphere are purely speculative and probably won’t be known for some time. They summarize as follows:

        “Overall, the current outlook suggests potentlally serlous climate problems
        are not likeIy to occur until the late 21st century or perhaps beyond at projected energy demand rates. This should provide time to resolve uncertainties regardlng the overall carbon cycle and the contributlon of fossll fuel combustion as well as the role of the oceans as a reservolr for both heat and carbon dioxide. It should also allow time to better deflne the effect of carbon dioxide and other infrared absorblng gases on surface climate. Making significant changes in energy consumption patterns now to deal with this potential problem amid all the scientific uncertainties would be premature in view of the severe impact such moves could have on the world’s economies and societies.”

        Seems like truer words were never spoken. Also, “spot-on for today,” as you put it.

      • Apologies if some of the spelling was garbled. Cut and pasted from the pdf…

      • dougbadgero wrote:
        lol That’s funny. Exxon predicted that an almost perfectly linear trend would continue increasing linearly.

        LOL wrong. Global mean surface temperature declined slightly between 1940 and the last 1970s.

      • Reacher51 wrote:
        That report seems to make clear that the real world effects of CO2 on the atmosphere are purely speculative and probably won’t be known for some time.

        Increasing the CO2 concentration of the Earth’s atmosphere has always caused warming, always else being equal. The physics is quite simple.

        The paragraph you quoted reads like Exxon trying to save its business prospects in light of the warming they knew would come.

      • George: Where did I use the word “pollution?”

      • “Increasing the CO2 concentration of the Earth’s atmosphere has always caused warming, always else being equal. The physics is quite simple.” – David Appell

        That’s blatantly not true David. The CO2 increase lags behind warming except for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, according to the data and comments supplied in this link given by Robert:

        http://clivebest.com/blog/?attachment_id=7031

      • “No. You’re right. The only time CO2 has led temperature is right now and 50 million years ago during PETM.” – Clive Best

        http://clivebest.com/blog/?attachment_id=7031

        Notice the black line representing eccentricity matches the long term temperature increase followed by CO2 increase (which lags behind). This black line can also represent the inclination orbit, which with a modified gravity theory, can account for the climatic forcing via increasing tidal energy.

      • David – the top curve represents Milankovitch insolation and doesn’t correlate with climate change in the data graph. It’s merely a signal in the ice core data that has been blown out of all proportion – it’s a red herring.

        The black curve closely fits the increase in temperature seen in the data. The 100,000-year orbital cycle is the true driver of climate change. The mechanism is lacking because the change in distance to the sun is a paltry 1-5%. This is the quandary of paleoclimate science because it simply doesn’t make sense.

        That is why the leftfield modified gravity hypothesis is the only option available. The orbital inclination is a better fit to the data than eccentricity. A driver of increasing tidal energy is a perfect fit.

        https://www.pnas.org/content/94/16/8329

      • “Increasing the CO2 concentration of the Earth’s atmosphere has always caused warming, always else being equal. The physics is quite simple.”

        We know that CO2 causes warming when added to a glass jar in a simple controlled experiment in which all other of the limited factors involved are held equal. However, we (or at least most of us) also understand that our planet is not in any way similar to a glass jar full of air.

        Not only is Earth not enclosed in glass, but the climate of the earth, as opposed to the jar in the laboratory, is the output of a highly complex system involving interactions between the sun, the atmosphere, vast oceans, the biome, land, the cryosphere, volcanos, and so on, all of which are in constant flux. So, in order to understand what the specific output of that climate system will be in future, or how that output will react to a change in one of those innumerable inputs, we would need to understand that dynamic system extremely well, which we don’t. The reason that we don’t, in case this is not sufficiently obvious, is because the physics (and biology etc.) involved in doing so is not at all simple.

        It is precisely because understanding the earth’s vast and complex climate system is difficult that the drafters of the report point out the importance of resolving uncertainties about the overall carbon cycle, the role of the oceans as a reservoir for both heat and carbon dioxide, and the actual effect of carbon dioxide and other infrared absorblng gases on surface climate before drawing conclusions.

        Since common sense seems not have been fully extinguished by 1982, the report also draws attention to the fact that abruptly moving away from the earth’s primary sources of power will have enormous consequences for the world’s economy and society, and therefore it probably wouldn’t be particularly wise to destabilize the planet’s economy before we even know if there’s even a significant problem that we need to solve.

        As for Exxon supposedly trying to save its business prospects, the website you linked to mentions quite helpfully that this report “was intended to be ‘restricted to Exxon personnel and not distributed externally’.” Exxon had no expectation that this assessment would be read by anyone outside of the company, let alone by religious zealots some 40 years in the future. They merely characterized the science as they knew it, which is that the effects of adding CO2 to the planet’s climate system are not well known, but that given the likely small effect it would have over the next century, and given the likely catastrophic effect of moving away quickly from fossil fuels, it would be best to do more research first and not to make any changes until we know more. That was spot-on.

      • Matthew R Marler

        David Appell: This is your periodic reminder that Exxon’s climate model projections for CO2 and temperature made over 40 years ago is spot-on for today:

        Has Earth experienced a ~3C temp increase since 1960, as shown in the second of your graphs?

      • Curious George

        David – my quote is from your sciencealert link. It looks like you don’t read your own references.

  32. Hurricane Eta causing havoc in central America:

  33. I don’t necessarily agree with everything he says, but at least Nigel Farage is honest. He talks about meeting Trump on the campaign trail and his attitudes towards lockdown strategy:

  34. Some good news:

    “Strongest evidence yet found of sustained defence in people who recover from coronavirus.”

    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/05/covid-immune-response-much-faster-and-stronger-post-infection-coronavirus-scientists-say

  35. “No words.”
    That’s pretty good.

  36. If the alternative is the end of the world then anything goes, I guess.

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/16/theend/

    • It was obvious a few days ago that Biden had won the Whitehouse. As soon as he had won Michigan, my home state, he had won the election IMO.

  37. Georgia, Georgia, no peace I find
    Just an old sweet song keeps Georgia on my mind…

  38. This from CNBC seems to sum the Election 2020 state of play nicely?

    • Trump does seem to have a lot of conspiracy theories but little evidence. If he does have firm proof of multiple fraud he needs to articulate them properly and stop flailing around. The overwhelming impression we get is that he realises he has lost.

      He did much much better than expected but I suspect there are just too many people who want ‘anyone but Trump.’ They might come to regret that the alternatives in BIden (surely the weakest Presidential candidate in our lifetime) and Harris, are not that great but that is another matter

      tonyb

      • > surely the weakest Presidential candidate in our lifetime…

        Who got the most votes of any candidate, ever, and the highest vote share against an incumbent, ever (Reagan against Carter had a relatively big 3rd party vote).

      • The vote was pro-Trump vs anti Trump.

        Almost no one is strongly pro Biden. He was the vehicle to get Trump to shut up.

      • > The vote was pro-Trump vs anti Trump.

        You, Fox News and the rightwing media, the Trump campaign and their surrogates and their massive disinformation social media campaign, were all focused on anti-Biden messaging. Anti “SOSHLIST!!!1!! messaging. How do you know what % of the vote for Trump were anti-Biden votes, anti-“They’re going to lock us down!” vote?

      • Josh – Biden currently has 50.5% of the popular vote. Hardly a historic percentage. Pretty pathetic actually,

      • > Josh – Biden currently has 50.5% of the popular vote. Hardly a historic percentage. Pretty pathetic actually,

        First, that % will be higher once the counts are certified.

        Second, in not the one who claimed he is a historic outlier. Tony did that. My point was that Tony projecting his own sensationalist opinion and confusing it with fact.

      • > Pretty pathetic actually

        Trump got 46.1% of the vote in 2016, against a candidate with an historically high unfavorability rating

      • Trumps favorability rating is as good or better than Obomanable’s. Rasmussen uses consistent methodology, so the comparison between the Presidents is a good one.

        https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_nov06

      • > Trumps favorability rating is as good or better…

        And yet he may well lose to an historically “weak” candidate by a relatively significant margin by recent standards.

      • Biden would have won this election easily if he had been the centrist Biden of most of his career. Trump is a narcissistic blowhard, and I hope Republicans learn something and move back in the classically liberal direction…fiscal discipline, small government, etc. IMO the election was close because of voters discomfort with the Democratic Party itself and the extreme leftist policies they now favor.

  39. Joshua

    Which surely supports my ‘anyone but trump theory?’

    Surely numbers aren’t everything? By that criteria of yours the downmarket tabloid Sun or the Express in this country with millions of readers must have more credibility than the Guardian with just a few hundred thousand?

    Mind you, you have just reminded me of Carter who was also extremely weak.

    Tonyb

    • Tony –

      You say he’s a weak candidate by a historic marrgin.

      He got over 50% of the vote. He beat Trump by a significant margin in the popular vote relative to recent elections. He may win by an EC margin that Trump called a “landslide” over and over. He may beat a candidate that inspires a cult-like following.

      Your descriptor is a personal opinion based on a subjective standard. You do this a lot. You take a personal opinion and treat it as if it is fact.

      He’s a moderate candidate. It may be that’s what was needed to defeat Trump.

      • The basic breakdown in this country for votes in presidential elections is 50/50. That basic state provides a huge inertia. People who voted for Trump in 2016 aren’t likely to change their vote. People are loyal to their previous actions. They don’t want to say “I was wrong in my vote last time.”

        People get caught up in the hype and the horse race. The actual mechanics are pretty simole. People “overfit” a lot of sensationalist nonsense and try to cram it into the relatively small margins. It mostly amounts to a ton of confirmation bias.

        There are no potential candidates on the planet (at least that would have gotten through a nomination process) that would have produced a significanty different result in this election

      • Joshua

        I note you didn’t respond to my observation that just because someone gets a lot of votes-or in the case of a newspaper sells a lot of copies- doesn’t make them the biggest and best else The Sun and the Express and Mail online are amongst the finest examples of newspapers in the English speaking world.

        I think you are just looking for an argument. You do this a lot.

        Mind you I would agree that Biden is moderate in every sense of the word.

        tonyb

      • Tony –

        > doesn’t make them the biggest and best else

        I didn’t say he was the biggest or the best. I offered a critique of your sensationalist opinion presented as a fact.

      • Joshua: He may win by an EC margin that Trump called a “landslide” over and over. He may beat a candidate that inspires a cult-like following

        Trump also had a historically high total vote (second only to Biden), and ~48% of the votes cast. Is that what you are calling a “cult-like” following?

        As to a president Biden, how soon do you think he would actually repeal the Trump/Republican tax cuts and prohibit fracking in Pennsylvania? Which House Dems would you expect to vote to support him. From a “conservative” point of view, one of Biden’s positive attributes is that he has never made a difference.

      • > Is that what you are calling a “cult-like” following?

        No. Not everyone who votes for Trump is in the cult. But that doesn’t mean a cult doesn’t exist.

        But a cult certainly exists. Just look around at his defenders here – like those who despite all evidence amazingly argue that his administration’s response to the pandemic wasn’t an abject failure.

        There are many people who openly acknowledge Trump’s lying and narcissism and his focus on his self-interest, and also acknowledge his clear policy failures, while still choosing to support him as what they think the better of the alternatives. They aren’t cult-members.

        And there are many people who steadfastly refuse to acknowledge that the man is fallible in any ways other than a few relatively insignificant character flaws, and who have entered into a cult of personality.

      • Joe - the non epidemiologist

        Joshua comment -“. Just look around at his defenders here – like those who despite all evidence amazingly argue that his administration’s response to the pandemic wasn’t an abject failure.”

        As if coumo’s response was good or better

        Compared to most of Europe, the US was very similar with the exception of NY, NJ .

        The believe that it is a Trump’s fault that He couldnt control mother nature is the height of absurity.

        I bet your are really proud that Obama stopped the seas from rising

      • Joshua: Just look around at his defenders here – like those who despite all evidence amazingly argue that his administration’s response to the pandemic wasn’t an abject failure.

        1. Not just here, but Democratic Governors Newsom and Cuomo.

        2. What do you think Biden would have done differently, and how can we tell whether it would have been better? At the time it mattered, he said he opposed cutting off traffic with China and the EU. Would he have ordered the CDC to accelerate approval of RT-PCR tests developed elsewhere, or countermanded Gov. Cuomo’s order that nursing homes accept discharged COVID-19 patients?

      • I don’t particularly know what Biden would have done differently? How could I know that?

        What I know are the many failures of the Trump administration, and the many ways in which he and his supporters have falsely portrayed some of his actions as either effective or in any way targeted towards outcomes other than political expediency. – and that he has many supporters who seem to be constitutionally incapable of even conceiving of his fallibility.

      • Joshua: What I know are the many failures of the Trump administration, and the many ways in which he and his supporters have falsely portrayed some of his actions as either effective or in any way targeted towards outcomes other than political expediency.

        Unless you can support the claim, with relevant evidence, that other actions would have worked better, then what you claim to “know” is a delusion.

        Since the virus escaped from China, most efforts to halt it have been disappointing, in Western Europe, most states in the US, and large regions of S. America. Focusing on Trump ignores almost all of the evidence.

        FWIW, I repeat that Trump’s defenders include Govs Cuomo and Newsom, not just Trump “supporters”.

      • matthew,

        Do you have a cite for Cuomo defending Trump?

        A brief Google only revealed the opposite to me, eg

        ” I believe that this was on a par with the greatest failure to detect an enemy attack since Pearl Harbor”

        Which isn’t what I’d describe as defensive!

      • Matthew –

        Most obviously, just lying about the state and availability of the testing is evidence of massive failure.

        Then we have the long list of promises made about the number and availability of the testing that were never kept.

        Then we have the flat out lying about the effectiveness of the “travel bans” and the ineffectiveness of the bans themselves and the incompetence in how they were implemented.

        Then we have the lies about PPE, and the failure to effectively ramp up their manufacture – which is ongoing.

        Then there are the lies about the state of the virus, the trajectory of the virus, and the virulence of the virus.

        There are the lies about the seriousness of the virus to children.

        There is the failure to support use of masks, which while are of uncertain efficacy, could have a significant impact. And their are lies about the use of masks (that 85% of people wearing them got infected).

        There are the lies about the cause of the spread in border communities.

        There are the lies about the fatality rate.

        There are the lies about the time line of the vaccine.

        There are the lies about the Obama administration and H1N1, and the stupidity of how the Trump administration handled the transition from the Obama pandemic planning.

        There are the lies about the cost to citizens for Covid testing.

        The lies abour the Google website.

        The lies about cases increasing only because of more testing.

        The lies about the European travel ban, and about whether returning travelers would be screened.

        The lies about doctors inflating covid cases to make money.

      • And seriously, your unwillingness to think that Trump should be held accountable for failures, is sad.

      • Joshua: And seriously, your unwillingness to think that Trump should be held accountable for failures, is sad.

        What do you mean by “hold accountable”? gripe?

        Compared to Trump, the electoral alternative is Biden, in whom I have less confidence. That’s a ranking, not an absolute claim that Trump was flawless..

        Another ranking: Trump’s mistakes were not as bad as: the CCP/WHO dishonesty at the start; the Italian plan to hug Chinese; the deBlasio/Pelosi encouragements for their fellow citizens to mingle in large numbers for the Lunar New Year; the Cuomo Nursing Home Order; the CDC delay in approving reliable tests developed elsewhere; the Democratic criticisms of his travel restrictions. Everybody has been wrong about somethings; I am not seeing Trump as worst, or seeing any replacement who would have done a better job.

    • Tony. In the US the election isn’t over until the Electoral College votes on December 14.

      Congress has to approve any electors and since is appears the Senate will be Red, there won’t be any power plays by the Dimocruks.

      If fraud is proven to the satisfaction of a state, the electors can be chosen for one party even if the other party “won” the popular vote. Trump shouldn’t concede until our entire process has played out.

      So, it ain’t over until the fat lady sings, the fat lady being the Electoral College.

      • jim

        “If fraud is proven to the satisfaction of a state, the electors can be chosen for one party even if the other party “won” the popular vote. Trump shouldn’t concede until our entire process has played out.”

        If Trump had evidence of multiple cases of Fraud surely this is the time to spell them out instead of making what appear to be wild and unsubstantiated claims.

        Do you really believe that the Electoral College will endorse anyone but Biden?

        tonyb

      • Tony. I’m merely pointing out it is a possibility. I didn’t make a prediction.

    • Trump was elected mostly on an “anyone but Hillary” argument. The people who voted for Obama then voted for Trump or stayed away or voted 3rd party made the difference in 2016.

      Actually the results in this election and the results in the last election are in the end not that different other than there is a lot more turnout. Georgia is a little bit of a surprise but Arizona with Trump’s constant McCain bashing isn’t so much. I think a good number of Republicans voted for Biden in Arizona. And it may still be won by Trump. That Georgia is close was caused by demographic changes and four years of organizing by the Democrats. The other states that look to be swinging to Biden – Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – really just have margins similar to 2016 with difference being the Democrat is on the high end.

      At any rate, that Trump has a rabid following that is in the minority by several million votes isn’t any argument for credibility or competence.

  40. jacksmith4tx | November 6, 2020 at 7:17 am |
    FYI; As a private citizen I don’t get to claim depreciation on my RE assets

    An oil company mines oil and the quantity of its oil diminishes over time. That’s what the depletion allowance is and it applies to any company that harvests a material from a fixed supply it owns.

    So are you claiming that when a solar panel converts some sunlight to electricity that it diminishes the energy available from the Sun? Or that a wind mill diminishes the energy available from the wind?

    I think not, Jack.

    • Jim, If I wasn’t clear I was referring to the equipment not the fuel source.
      Does a FF producer depreciate it’s equipment? My solar panels degrade at about 1% a year which is way better than a multi-million dollar deep sea drilling rig which get special accelerated depreciation.
      * actually a wind turbine does affect the downstream air flow by both pulling warm air aloft down to the surface and by extracting energy from the moving air mass. If you are growing temperature sensitive crops it could affect your yield.

      • So what the heck is this if not an accelerated depreciation schedule?

        Five year accelerated depreciation schedule means greater “loss” on paper, reduces taxes.

        Click to access 65255.pdf

      • I can’t access the pdf but does it say a private citizen gets the same depreciation schedule as a business? I can depreciate my rental property because I am operating as a business for profit but I didn’t buy my solar array to make money but to save money. It was only by changing my energy consumption I was able to recover some of my cost.

    • This will allow you to search.

      MACRS and bonus depreciation.

      Five year accelerated depreciation schedule means greater “loss” on paper, reduces taxes

      All ITC-eligible technologies as well as large wind projects (essentially all renewables) Depends on tax situation

      No expiration (MACRS)

  41. Georgia: “Georgia is headed for a recount, where we are confident we will find ballots improperly harvested, and where President Trump will ultimately prevail.”

    Pennsylvania: “There were many irregularities in Pennsylvania, including having election officials prevent our volunteer legal observers from having meaningful access to vote counting locations. We prevailed in court on our challenge, but were deprived of valuable time and denied the transparency we are entitled to under state law.”

    Nevada: “In Nevada, there appear to be thousands of individuals who improperly cast mail ballots.”

    Arizona: “Finally, the President is on course to win Arizona outright, despite the irresponsible and erroneous ‘calling’ of the state for Biden by Fox News and the Associated Press.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/06/election-not-over-trump-campaign-defies-joe-bidens-phony-claim/

  42. Looks like Putin sees his puppet Trump is going down so I guess it’s time to pivot to appeasing the socialist democrats.
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-russia-climatechange/putin-orders-russian-government-to-try-to-meet-paris-climate-goals-idUKKBN27L2AS?
    “President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree ordering the Russian government to try to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement

    In a decree published on Wednesday, a public holiday in Russia, Putin formally ordered the government to work towards a cut in greenhouse gas emissions of up to 70% against 1990 levels by 2030.”

    Love the way that guy operates – just issue a decree – no haggling with the peoples representatives – presto! new law. I can see why Trump had a hard on for him.

    • jack

      Due to the collapse of the Soviet Union and its highly inefficient heavy industries, Russia is already at around a 50% reduction from 1990 which was their heaviest year for CO2 emissions in the record

      https://www.statista.com/statistics/449817/co2-emissions-russia/

      tonyb

      • Thanks tonyb. I have no reason to doubt your numbers but why would he do it now the day after the Trump terminates it’s Paris accords?
        So what’s the explanation? Science, diplomacy or politics?

      • Jack

        My surmise would be that America will rejoin the Paris agreement and due to their lack of recent involvement will feel obliged to increase their funding. Russia would hope to get hold of some of this, knowing they were already a long way towards their target

        Tonyb

      • You got it all wrong. If Biden can get us to net zero CO2 emissions by 2030 that means we are off the hook and can start forcing those 3rd. world sh*thole countries to pick up the slack by making them buy our renewable energy products (GE wind, First Solar).

  43. It’s a crime that taxpayer money, much of which is from the poor and middle class, to pay rich people to buy electric cars. This is but one problem with government regulations.

    • The Democratic Party used to be the party of working people. Now they are a party of poor (unemployed) people. They use tax money, mostly from the working class, to support the non-working class. Working people are a Trump’s base.

      • joe - the non economist

        Curious George – “The Democratic Party used to be the party of working people. Now they are a party of poor (unemployed) people. They use tax money, mostly from the working class, to support the non-working class. Working people are a Trump’s base.”

        The Democrats have 4 major constiuents
        A) the poor the live off government assistance
        B) the public employment sector (government employee ) and others whose employment is funded via government programs
        C) The rich white elite
        D) pro abortionists

        for the most part it is the producers against the takers.

      • Have you ever tested your theory with any data, Curious:

        Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2020/09/08/democrats-made-gains-from-multiple-sources-in-2018-midterm-victories/

        For your own edification, check age and education.

      • joe – the non economist wrote:
        for the most part it is the producers against the takers.

        Nope. On average blue states pay more in federal taxes per capita and receive less from the federal budget per capita than red states.

        “A 2017 study by the Rockefeller Institute of Government found that traditional blue states like Connecticut ($15,643), Massachusetts ($13,582), New Jersey ($13,137), New York ($12,820), and California ($10,510), contributed significantly more in federal taxes, per citizen, than traditional red states like Mississippi ($5,740), West Virginia ($6,349), Kentucky ($6,626), and South Carolina ($6,665).

        “Not only do some states contribute more to the federal budget than others, but some also receive less from the federal government in return. On average, each of our 50 states receives about $1.14 from the federal government for every tax dollar they send to Washington.

        “This is why our federal government runs a deficit every year. The traditional red states mentioned above, however, receive more — much more. For example, Mississippi received $2.13 for every tax dollar it sends to Washington by way of federal taxes, West Virginia $2.07, Kentucky $1.90, and South Carolina $1.71.

        “For some large traditional blue states, California receives only 96 cents, Massachusetts 83 cents, Connecticut 82 cents, New York 81 cents, and New Jersey 74 cents for every tax dollar they sent to Washington. The discrepancy is significant.

        “In a 2020 update from the Rockefeller Institute, the disparity between traditional blue and red states is even more significant….”

        Tom Zirpoli, Baltimore Sun 5/6/2020
        https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/carroll/opinion/cc-op-zirpoli-050620-20200506-7ya7okjfk5btdpysnrnrfouyz4-story.html

      • Curious George

        Willard and Joe Non: Does a public employee’s pay come from tax money, or from some other mysterious (at least for me) source?

      • CG,
        New rules: Mexico will pay for the wall and government employees are paid by tariffs.

      • Curious,

        Your itch. You scratch it.

        Meanwhile:

      • Everett F Sargent

        Small Hands as The Welfare King

  44. Everett F Sargent

    The irony is just killing me, that Bizzaro World pov of Merica.

    If 160M votes were cast and counted: Biden = 82.1M, Small Hands = 75.1M, Others = 2.8M. That difference of seven million votes for Biden is almost as large as Small Hands Inauguration crowd!

    In EC terms, that would be 281-257 for Biden, this time, we might actually have an EC that is very roughly inline with the popular vote. Giving the Democrats just PA and NV results in a 279-259 EC victory for Biden.

    Expect to see most of Small Hands extended family to be behind bars before the end of 2022. Expect certain wingnut people to be fired from NOAA and the 5th Assessment Report to be more dire than was the 4th Assessment Report. Expect Merica to be engulfed in flames as the wingnut hard right militias goes bananas.

  45. Black carbon – with mixed sulfate and organics – is a great opportunity for health – as Alan Lowey noted above – and environmental progress. It causes millions of deaths per year. It is largely a developing world problem – it is a problem of poverty – energy poverty above all. There is an abundance of cost efficient technology available – that are affordable in developed economies.


    see – https://watertechbyrie.com/2014/06/30/black-carbon-a-health-and-environment-issue/

    There are dozens of pathways for environmental impacts of black carbon – including a significant warming effect. Second only to anthropogenic CO2. The warming effect is likely underestimated due to enhanced warming potential of the ‘lensing effect’ of sulfate and organics deposition on black carbon particle surfaces in mixed emissions.


    https://www.pnas.org/content/113/16/4243

    Alan might note the Biolite cookstove in the article on my WordPress site. It uses a thermocouple powering a fan (with a USB connection included for phones and lights) to combust black carbon particles within the stove, It is almost smokeless and 50% more fuel efficient than open fire. The latter helping conserve dwindling timber resources.

    But this is the one I am about to order. You may know by now how much I like cows… mmmmm…

    • America can rejoin the Paris accord – I’ve never understood why he had to leave. You may meet your commitments largely with the transition to cheap fracced gas that is still underway. Although with increased exports you may find that costs increase. Despite the noise from activists – Fraccin’ Joe Biden won’t change this. The only thing that will change is the money going into energy innovation – including nuclear – that Bjorn Lomborg described recently as the only thing in his platform likely to make a real difference. But Lomborg is a political scientist and not an environmental scientist. Agriculture and forestry are key sectors where social investment can provide immense health, environment and economic dividends.

      The developing world will focus on the cheapest available energy resources – as per their Paris country commitments – to drive economic growth. Economic growth provides resources for solving problems – conserving and restoring ecosystems, better sanitation and safer water, better health and education, updating the diesel fleet and other productive assets to emit less black carbon, developing better and cheaper ways of producing electricity, replacing cooking with wood and dung with better ways of preparing food thus avoiding respiratory disease and again reducing black carbon emissions.

      A global program of agricultural soils restoration is the foundation for balancing the human ecology. In their Paris initiative France committed to increasing soil carbon by 0.4% per year – a ‘4 per 1000’ increase in soil organic content. As a global objective and given the highest priority it is a solution to critical problems of biodiversity loss, development, food security and resilience to drought and flood.

      Here’s the latest strategic plan.

      Click to access strategic_plan.pdf

    • Robert, we’re not on the same page at all. The biolite firepit is a high-tech gadget for wealthy westerners. What I’m proposing is something anyone can build for themselves with medium skill, low cost & readily available materials which provides very effective high heat as well as being able to produce smokeless fuel.

    • Biolite has a range of cool and affordable consumer products that finance their energy mission in India and Africa. They have a head start and charge smartphones.


      https://row.bioliteenergy.com/

      • My solution is long-lasting & independent of a globalised high-tech economy. It will appeal to a different mindset than your consumer base.

      • Smartphones in Africa are some 7% of the global trade. They are required for business, weather warnings, education, communications, entertainment – the usual stuff. I can’t imagine why you think that not being part of the ‘sophisticated’ global economy is a good thing.

        https://www.gsma.com/mobileeconomy/sub-saharan-africa/

        But tell you what – if you get your idea off the drawing board, through a prototype and on the ground in a big way I’ll concede a point.

      • Critically, my solution is independent of an electrical supply. That’s why I’m keen to make one for my remote location. If there was a power cut – I’d freeze to death. The simpler option is often the best.

      • Sorry? The Biolite makes it own electricity from heat for lights and phones. That’s one of the points. I wouldn’t count on it for sub-zero survival in unabomber territory.

      • “I can’t imagine why you think that not being part of the ‘sophisticated’ global economy is a good thing.” – Robert Ellison

        It’s the ever widening gap between rich and poor which I find unsettling. Global tech giants can have too much power imo and interfere with the natural human society that evolution has provided for us.

      • My solution is for non-tropical locations where winter heating is a major issue and expense. It’s an excellent, affordable back up for the possibility of electrical cuts in supply.

        If world war III were to break out, the electrical supply wouldn’t be quite so reliable imo. There’s also the cyber-attack option that is now a consequence of ‘sophisticated’ globalisation. An enemy could potentially wait until the coldest months before causing pandemonium with an assault on our power supply.

      • “I have another low tech clever idea which could improve the lives of rural Africans and elsewhere. Currently the burning of wood inside homes leads to millions of cases of lung cancer. It makes more sense to kiln dry the wood first to remove the moisture, do that no smoke would be produced. Surprisingly, there’s an inexpensive way of doing this, which I’ve experimented on myself.” AL

        You are inconsistent.

  46. What did we accomplish? I remember in the 80s, a thing going around was, pick the vegetable, Ketchup or Reagan? School lunch, ketchup. We elected a vegetable. Who is in China’s pocket. Taiwan, it was good to know you. Joe doesn’t believe in anything and that goes for Harris too. Trump was a champion, you have to admit it. He’s outnumbered and takes on everybody. He gets abandoned and undermined. And he doesn’t give up and tell us his son died from cancer. He doesn’t hide in a basement. He doesn’t take off 4 days to prepare for a debate. You voted for that. You ought to be ashamed. Could you have spit on the country any more than that? You would have voted for Epstein if the DNC told you to. Trump defeated the Republican Party then the DNC in 2016. He changed things. He attracted minority voters more than any recent Republican Presidential candidate after 4 years of being called a racist. You voted for the guy who said he ran because of the good people on both sides hoax. Trump lost the votes of the beta males someone has suggested. The beta males asserting themselves for a corrupt old man, so that what? Trump could dance to the village people. That’s how alpha he is. But we got as our president the guy who takes the money on the side like a clownfish. And when called on it, says that’s debunked. As he stammers. That’s dignity. What is it that you wouldn’t do? Trump defined you. The troll is complete.

    • Ragnaar,

      Great comment. Sums up my disappointment completely. I expect a lot of “swing voters” may well look back fondly on the “Trump years”.

    • Ragnaar –

      I think it’s your duty as an American to contribute to Trump’s fight to save America. It’s not like he’s motivated by self-interest.

      -snip-

      Clicking through to the donation page, potential givers can review a disclaimer that 50% of any contribution will be used for general election campaign debt retirement and 50% for the campaign’s recount account.

      https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump-biden-election-day-2020/card/zU0rMlE7ltxzuW4lIwai

      • Oh noes, Josh. Say it ain’t so. What self-respecting Trump supporter would want to help the Trump campaign pay off debt.

      • Just goes to show. Asking for money to fight campaign legal battles and then using it to pay off debt is certainly no problem…

        For a cult member. They throw out the garbage and you say “Please can I have some more.”

      • J:
        I didn’t vote for Biden. I didn’t vote for the DNC’s candidate. I didn’t stab Sander’s in the back twice to put up two corrupt politicians. I did not spend four years talking about Russian collusion. Or calling Trump a facist or a racist. I didn’t sell out Blacks for the last 50 years or ruin K-12 education. You won. Your prize is Joe Biden. It only gets better for me from here. The system just gets closer to a major transformation. Biden is the little Dutch boy. I hope he remembers where the Dike is?

      • J:
        You are of course aware of the Intercept’s Greenwald. And Biden’s flailing remarks. The most powerful man in the world.

    • You better show some love to your new president. If you stop calling him names he might show a little empathy towards the ex POTUS and pardon him.

      “In testimony before Congress, Mueller was asked by Republican Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado, “Could you charge the President with a crime after he left office?”
      “Yes,” Mueller replied.

      “You believe that he committed — you could charge the President of the United States with obstruction of justice after he left office?” Buck asked.
      Mueller answered: “Yes.”

      https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/17/politics/trump-election-legal-reckoning/index.html

      Now go back and read Willard’s link above,
      https://judithcurry.com/2020/11/03/u-s-election-discussion-thread/#comment-931446
      Trump is shaking down his followers to pay for his pending legal defense.
      He’s going to need it. The House is looking at the creation of a “Presidential Crimes Commission” made up of independent prosecutors who can examine “those who enabled a corrupt president,” as Rep. Eric Swalwell put it in an August tweet. “Example 1: Sabotaging the mail to win an election.”

      • You’re trolling me. I think they should set up a truth commission to prove what children they are. What does the Supreme Court look like these days? Don’t forget, Trump has supporters.

    • Cornered like an outhouse rat – flailing, snarling, desperate – there is just one slim hope left. ‘I am Spartacus’ says Ragnaar. Pissant interlopers seem mean spirited in contrast.

      https://watertechbyrie.files.wordpress.com/2020/01/viking-

      • When China sails their destroyers or whatever along the Australian coast, you’ll have Biden to defend you. With his solar powered air force.

      • It is all a bit silly – everyone can now take a few deep breaths and stop beating their chests.

        “China has escalated the trade dispute with Australia in a searing new editorial that accused Australia of “colluding” with Washington’s “schemes” against China.

        The editorial, published yesterday by China Daily, accused Canberra of being a “roughneck” in America’s “gang” for what it claimed were moves to contain China economically and militarily.

        “Canberra … has undermined what were previously sound and mutually beneficial ties by prejudicially fueling anti-China sentiment at home, baselessly sanctioning Chinese companies and aggressively sending warships to China’s doorsteps,” the editorial stated.”

      • As of October 2018, the RAN fleet consisted of 48 warships, including destroyers, frigates, submarines, patrol boats and auxiliary ships.
        ————–
        China has about 650. Japan has about 155. I think that about covers it. There’s also that guy with the gyro-copter. I bet he’s looking for work.

      • The navy defends sea lanes, the air force is a forward attack force and the army has a very mobile defence capability. It is all integrated and has the latest technology.
        We actively develop regional defence partnerships – and deploy Oceania disaster relief efforts – but there is a sting in the tail. Don’t ever imagine otherwise.

        “None of this means we have no chance of building alliances with countries in our region. Nor does it mean that we shouldn’t build a defence force that would allow us to fight alongside them if we can. But it does mean we shouldn’t base our strategic posture on the optimistic assumption that we will always find a powerful friend when we need one. We can count on New Zealand, but other than that, we need to plan to fight alone.” https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australia-must-plan-to-defend-itself-alone/

      • Look what China did for its population raising them out of poverty. They’re doing the same for their Navy. Don’t feel the need to comment on Biden being in China’s pocket.

      • Truly amazing how those who were so deeply *concerned* about fear-mongering about Russia are now fear-mongering about China non-stop.

        I have to give you credit because you can add racism to the xenophobia of Russia fear-mongering.

      • J:
        Russia has an economy the size of bleeping Italy’s. China may overtake ours before too long. My step brother lives with his family on Taiwan. He ain’t worried about Russia. The South China Sea has a major shipping lane near it that many of our allies use. And no China is not stealing our trade secrets, that’s a hoax. And do you know how many engineers they turn out and how many nuclear power plants they’re working on? They’re not confused. They mean to overtake us. They’re expanding into third world countries. But it’s fine. Flowers not guns right? And Biden is really in China’s pocket. China just won the election. Not that they did anything. That’s not my claim. Their horse came in first. Which is actually an insult to horses.

      • Trump paid nearly $200,000 in income taxes to China last decade for licensing deals. $750 to the US in a couple of years. But somehow Biden’s in China’s pocket?

    • With Joshua everything is confirmation bias – so you may as well agree with him because to do otherwise is to confirm your confirmation bias. It’s a bit circular and what he does believe in is a complete mystery. It’s a vibe thing thing and you are in the tribe or not. Jack and Poor Wee Willie on the other hand are hand are open books. They believe in the imminence of the global economic planning AI overlord. Ya couldn’t joke about something like that.

      • I’ll give ya’ credit, Chief. Unlike many others here you acknowledge that you don’t know what I believe (because you haven’t asked me) rather than just assuming something like that because I criticize Trump I think that Obama is infallible.

        And speaking of beliefs, you’ve been ranting here for many years about some nonsense global cooling for a decade or three and as far as I know you never admitted that you were just pulling it out of your hind quarters even though your prediction never materialized. Do you still believe that nonsense, have you fabricated some rationale to confirm your bias despite the contracting evidence, or have you actually admitted to just pulling it out of your hind quarters?

      • That’s confirmation bias, Robert!

      • If you expect me to want to baffle you with the science and math of Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic dynamics Joshua – I am here to disappoint. Is there something simpler you want to discuss?

        This for instance clearly shows substantially less sunlight – less cloud and perhaps cleaner air – reflected back to space this century.

        This suggests that Pacific sea surface temperatures influence the decadal evolution of global surface temperature – including the ‘pause’ this century.

        You might have a little think about that and get back to me. You might find this helpful.

        https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/6/3/62

    • Trump’s 2020 rallies are estimated to have killed 700 people by COVID. Lied to Americans about COVID. Cost Americans hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs. Narcissistic untrustworthy whiny threatened psychopath. $60 B in farmer welfare. Exploded federal deficit that he promised to eliminate. Fewer Americans are employed now than when he took office. Lied constantly. Banned science. Dozens of hires and cronies guilty of corruption. Racist. Misogynist. Watched TV for hours a day. Lied constantly and shamelessly. Health care plan forever 2 weeks away. Will be remembered as the worst president in US history.

      • And said NOTHING about Russia putting a bounty on US troops. 70 M pretend-Americans had no problem with that.

      • I am glad you adapted so well to Trump’s 4 years. Here’s a tip: Be a Turtle

        One day Mr Turtle and Mr Fox met in the forest. Mr Fox thought, “I’m going to have good food today.” And Mr Turtle thought, “Oh my goodness. My enemy is out there. Shall I run? But I’m not fast enough.” So he went inside his shell instead. Mr Fox paced round and round Mr Turtle but eventually, he got tired of waiting and went away.

        Mindfulness is a state of open, active attention to the present. Its benefits include lowering stress levels, reducing harmful ruminating, and protecting against depression and anxiety. Research even suggests that mindfulness can help people better cope with rejection and social isolation.

        Your 700 people from a source that isn’t a turtle. I’ve been opining on Covid deaths in MN. You are brave, you are strong, you are resilient.

      • Attendees at Trump rallies who scorn masks and social distancing? Of course it’s going to lead to COVID cases and then deaths. You might want to learn about the germ theory of disease. And take the turtles out of your ears and off your eyes.

    • Everett F Sargent

      Anarcho? Yeah, that’s the ticket! Oh wait, that is what Small Hands has been doing these past four years.

      BTW, when is the next meeting? They keep changing times, places, leaders and speakers, right in the middle of meetings even.

  47. Geoff Sherrington

    RIE,
    You lack the self-discipline to avoid, again and again, bombing the excellent blog that Dr Curry provides,
    Sadly, your offerings are becoming more fringe, less good science and some repetitions.
    You promote soil carbon (on a politics blog) without seeming to know the deficiemcies in some of your favourite stories.
    Give it a rest , before you go blind, eh?
    Geoff S

    • You lack the good grace to pass over in silence my foibles and give us the benefit of your sound science. If I might note that the Democrat platform provides for – inter alia – ‘decarbonizing the food and agriculture sector, and leveraging agriculture to remove carbon dioxide from the air and store it in the ground’.

      All in all the platform embraces energy research, infrastructure hardening, pollution management and environmental conservation and management. All things embraced by a global middle ground consisting of a 100 plus countries, 1000’s of organisations, 10’s of 1000’s of scientists, millions of farmers and land managers and billions of people. All elements of conservative policies in the best possible sense.

      We know you stand against the tide like some latter day King Canute – quite often with small minded recriminations that have not much substance. And you could well be right – it may better to be quiet and be thought a fool than to to open your mouth and confirm it.

  48. “No. You’re right. The only time CO2 has led temperature is right now and 50 million years ago during PETM.” – Clive Best

    http://clivebest.com/blog/?attachment_id=7031

    “Climate change during the last 65 million years as expressed by the oxygen isotope composition of benthic foraminifera. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is characterized by a brief but prominent negative excursion, attributed to rapid warming. Note that the excursion is understated in this graph due to the smoothing of data.”

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene–Eocene_Thermal_Maximum

    I’ve just realised that the tidal forcing hypothesis not only invalidates the assumed glacial cycle ice-volume data from benthic foraminifera but also the paleoclimate record of the last 65 million years.

    This is because in the tidal forcing scenario, abyssal oceans would drastically change in temperature, with high mixing rate and surface precipitation – all of which affect the isotopic ratio within the shells of the micro-biolife recorded in marine sediments.

    Everything will need to be re-evaluated with a new time-line of events. It’s awe-inspiring what a new theory of gravity will bring.

  49. As for hurricane Eta: also here the best case scenario materialised in the end. A lesson for the alarmists.

  50. Okay team. It’s a good time to be a libertarian. Michael Malice is out there. He’s kind of a Russian which is great if you ever want 3.5 million dollars from them for no reason and want to be our President. Let’s face it. The Republicans were losers. Have been for a long time. Jesus, the Bushes? Their idea was to give you Jeb as your President. More importantly they play the same games as the Democrats, they’re just worse at it. All the times the Republicans were silent? They’re dirty too. Taking money as well. But, if you believe in liberty, Malice is your guy. This is not to say the Republicans didn’t do anything. They got Justice K through. They cut the corporate tax rate. And they offered some support to Trump on China. They drilled for friggen oil. But they still think of themselves as country club. They don’t adapt very well. Anarcho is a word I’d associate with Malice. I think he said you have two warring mafias. Trump and the reaction to him, clarified things. We pulled back the curtain. It’s mostly about power. And the two parties have it. There isn’t some libertarian utopia waiting for us. But there is a better path. Our current leaders don’t want that path. They want their own things. Bleep everyone else. Rand was right. It’s self interest. We aren’t dealing with altruists here. Malice may help you see things. He helped me.

    • Everett F Sargent

      Ragnaar,

      You need to calm down. You sound just like Small Hands.

      Oh and can I use your rants for a new Downfall video?

      • Everett F Sargent:
        I am good. I listed the things I didn’t do that Joe Bidens voters did do. The Democrat party is in shambles. This is epic. At 75% certainty the Senate stays with the Republicans. We got gridlock thanks to Trump. Once the Democrats can’t hate Trump, they have nothing. Small hands got the Supreme Court and it aint going to get packed.

    • Another clue that it was a rigged election – Russia hacked the vote to make Trump lose so that Biden would destroy America by sacrificing their democracy on the alter of the socialist Green New Deal.
      Did you see how he picked the day after the election to declare Russia will win the race to net zero CO2? He’s baiting the socialist to commit economic suicide.

      • “Did you see how he picked the day after the election to declare Russia will win the race to net zero CO2? He’s baiting the socialist to commit economic suicide.” – jacksmith

        I think you’re right. The Green New Deal was a disaster in California, creating blackouts, according to Michael Shellenberger.

        That’s why the real cause of climate change needs to be established by the scientific mainstream. If Dr. Judith Curry and other experts believe natural climate cycles are responsible for more than 50% of the change, then the cause should be hidden in the data. Groupthink by manmade warming alarmists must be clouding the judgement of experimentation and results.

      • “Putin formally ordered the government to work towards a cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 of up to 30% below emission levels in 1990…Putin’s order came with a big caveat. He said any action to cut emissions must take account of the need to ensure steady and balanced socio-economic development…Putin, who has questioned whether human activity is the sole driver of warming climate cycles..”

        https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-russia-climatechange/putin-orders-russian-government-to-try-to-meet-paris-climate-goals-idUKKBN27L2AS

      • jack:
        Wasn’t rigged. Trump lost. This might be the best two months ever. Who will be pardon? Trump is going to have podcast before January. He’ll be on the Joe Rogan show before then. The only hope is to disappear him.

  51. The Trump team is documenting election irregularities. The are collecting affidavits from first-hand witnesses and whistleblowers who swear to the veracity under penalty of perjury. You can help via the link below. And I say if anyone harrasses you for supportng Trump, just give some more. (And, yes, half goes to election issues and half to retire election debt.)

    https://secure.winred.com/djt/election-defense-fund

  52. Everett F Sargent

    Well, here at Small Hands Casino, we exist to make sure you go bankrupt twice as fast as at any other gambling establishment. We immediately take half your bet off the table before we even spin that wheel.

    But, don’t worry, we are continuously working on ever better scams to fleece you with, like No Aces or Faces … WhiteJack!

    • It was a scam to lower the unemployment rate. To not get into any of your establishment’s wars. It’s good you won. You are the establishment. Besides Trump voters with deer rifles, who is not on your establishment team. The establishment winning is not even news. We are sheep. I got. Should we dance to that?

  53. I put up a link to a coarsely written summary of evidence for voter fraud, but it was not allowed, probably because of the coarse (obscene language), but the evidence has been presented elsewhere. It looks like public recounts of the paper ballots will be required to answer the question of how much the fraud contributed to the result. We always have some fraud attempts (sadly, the presence of democracy and republican govt do not turn people into angels), and this time around they look more extensive and effective than usual.

    I expect that these recounts, like the FL recounts of 2000 – 2001 will last into next year, even if the legal timelines force a judgment by mid-December.

    • “this time around they look more extensive and effective than usual.”

      Sure they do. Keep telling yourself that.

      • VTG or Joshua (or anyone)

        Your help please.

        In the UK a general election is held, the votes counted overnight and generally the next day, or at the latest the day after, the result is declared.

        The leader of the winning party then moves into 10 Downing street as the Prime Minister, so the former PM (if his party loses) often has the removal van in to No 10 on the morning after the election, whilst the new PM moves their stuff in during the afternoon, then goes off to meet the Queen. Brutal but mercifully short

        Any postal ballots-there needs to be a valid reason for them-are counted on the day of the election only. Not weeks in advance, or the day following.

        Consequently the American system perplexes me.

        Why are postal votes allowed to be sent off weeks in advance? Why so many? Why are postal votes (apparently) allowed after Election day? Why doesn’t the new President move in immediately, rather than 2 months after the event?

        Perhaps most puzzling of all, why does it take 4 or 5 days to count the vote and declare a winner, which even then has to go to the electoral college some weeks hence. It all seems very long winded.

        There seems to be all sorts of conspiracy theories and allegations of widespread fraud, but in a sophisticated democracy like the US I cant see how that would be tolerated or how it could be executed, other than on a very small and local scale. Certainly not as part of some giant countrywide conspiracy.

        Trump did much better than expected but surely he clearly lost? Why doesn’t he gracefully concede?

        Any ideas as to what sort of actions he might be planning during the 2 months he has remaining as President? Does Biden take over any of the trappings of State in the meantime, for example meeting world leaders?

        I am currently reading PJ O’rourkes new book so hopefully that might provide some insights.

        tonyb

      • Tony –

        I don’t think there are rational answers to your questions about our electoral system. In answer to all your questions the best I could muster is “Because.”

        It’s ridiculous that we don’t have a more efficient election process, that makes voting easier and less susceptible to errors (or fraud, which despite claims otherwise, seems relatively rare).

        Demz say the reason we don’t have a more efficient electoral process is because pubz want to suppress votes to maintain their disproportionate, minoritarian power. That is clearly true as a legacy. No doubt voting was restricted for the purpose of concentrating power among the already powerful.

        But these days, imo, it’s not explicit like that – a deliberate power play by the powerful has morphed into something that is currently maintained (or not corrected for) because of tribal loyalty more so than deliberate wish to disenfranchise people. That’s where it gets xomicated because if you say it’s because of racism then people get offended even if it’s clearly, at leat in part, the legacy of racism.

        One of the crazy things about this country is how messed up our voting system is. The standing joke is that if we sent election inspectors to a country with the American election system they would describe it as corrupt.

      • Joshua

        Thanks for your excellent reply. The BBC seem to be saying Biden has won Pennsylvania so he is now President. But when does that start? Does he have any power or does he have to wait until January? In the meantime does Trump retain the power to do anything?

        So many questions. As you rightly say I don’t think American observers would endorse your electoral system if it were found in other countries

        tonyb

      • Everett F Sargent

        tonyb,

        “Perhaps most puzzling of all, why does it take 4 or 5 days to count the vote and declare a winner, which even then has to go to the electoral college some weeks hence. It all seems very long winded.”

        Short answer is COVID-19 led to millions and millions of mail-in ballots cast. Put your ballot into an envelope, put that envelope into another envelop, mail it, hope it does not get mangled/bent in the mailing/collection systems (aka large heavy piles in open top boxes). … Long story short? It is made to be complicated, on purpose, somewhat to reduce voter fraud. but mostly to disenfranchise certain voting blocks. US History books are the best advice I can offer for now.

        I think that all people should vote and that that process is a relatively painless. Democrats want all people to vote while Republicans only want a subset of people to vote. We ain’t no shining beacon on a hill, as it were, by any means.

      • Everett

        “Democrats want all people to vote while Republicans only want a subset of people to vote.”

        What an interesting comment.

        tonyb

      • tonyb –
        Take a moment to explore this web site and most of your questions will be answered.
        https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/

      • tonyb: Why are postal votes allowed to be sent off weeks in advance? Why so many? Why are postal votes (apparently) allowed after Election day? Why doesn’t the new President move in immediately, rather than 2 months after the event?

        Your questions do not have short answers.

        These things have been written into laws, which are the results of debates and wrangling among diverse factions, and then votes of the legislatures. The “why” is disclosed in the records of the debates. the issue of mail-in votes was addressed by Trump and Biden in the third debate: Trump, like most Republicans, supported the use only of requested absentee ballots; Biden supported the system (used in California) of mailing ballots to all registered voters and allowing voters the choice of mailing them, carrying them to polling stations, or voting in person. The issue has been debated in public in every state. Likewise, voting on several days vs. voting on one day: the argument being that single day voting works to disadvantage large classes of working people.

        Most results are known now, the exceptions being a few very close races, and a few where fraud is reasonably suspected.

        It isn’t logical because logic requires premises, and the premises are generally both unknown and not agreed-upon. How, for example, to guard against fraud by (probably partisan) poll-workers? How can you tell whether the measures are enforced or effective? Those are hot topics now, as you are doubtless reading.

        Is there some reason that the British example might be treated as an ideal against which to judge everything else?

      • Tony B, the pandemic created an unprecedented emergency situation that the system was not prepared for. Different states made different rules. Tiny offices at the county level, where elections take place, were overwhelmed. This in a context where hatred and distrust is rampant. Fraud was predicted months ago, so every hint of evidence is seized upon.

        Confusion on a grand scale was inevitable. Straightening out government confusions like this is a standard task for the Courts, so a close race was bound to go this way.

        With luck it will be over by the end of the month. Fortunately the new President does not take office until January so there is time to work it out. In the Courts that is. The beliefs will remain. In the meantime the government will roll along. The one pressing issue is when will the Trump admin allow the Biden transition teams into the agencies? That too may be litigated.

        Re the Brit system, the US President is not even an MP much less the PM. Our president has far less power and this is by design. No Kings! Checks and balances.

        It amuses me that with Biden, McConnell and Pelosi all about 80 years old we probably have the oldest collection of leaders in US history.

      • Tony

        “Why doesn’t he gracefully concede?”

        I believe you may not have been paying attention to your man these last four years Tony.

      • Vtg

        He is no more my man than he is yours or Joshua’s man.

        However, ever the showman it might have been hoped that Trump would rather bow out with grace than look like an angry ten year old.

        Tonyb

      • “He is no more my man than he is yours or Joshua’s man”

        Yeah, I know Tony, it’s pure coincidence he always comes up on top in any comparison you make.

        As to the rest, like I said, not been paying attention these last four years.

      • tonyb: However, ever the showman it might have been hoped that Trump would rather bow out with grace than look like an angry ten year old.

        Anger and combativeness are his style. But style aside, he should emulate Gore of 2000 and pursue legal remedies through the last possible appeal.

        In my heart I believe Biden won, but I think that the evidence of fraud is too strong to ignore.

      • MatthewRMarler:Most results are known now, the exceptions being a few very close races, and a few where fraud is reasonably suspected.

        to amplify:

        of the 11 governors’ races, 11 have clear outcomes

        of the 34 senate races, Alaska is still being counted, and the two Georgia seats require runoffs to assure that the winner will have a majority vote, not just a plurality.

        of the 438 House races, 414 have clear outcomes, the others look to require recounts, which will be completed in a few days.

        Of the many races for state legislatures, most results are known.

        Of the many propositions, most results are known.

        Most races for judges, school boards, utility boards of directors, county commissioners and planning boards, and many other local positions have been clearly settled.

        The small number of disputed outcomes deserve the press they are getting, but overall the large and complex election went well.

        As others have written, the laws were modified to reduce the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall participation was high, at about 67%. Even the (apparent) presidential loser had a record number of votes.

      • tonyb: Trump did much better than expected but surely he clearly lost? Why doesn’t he gracefully concede?

        He’s following precedent. Gore did not “gracefully” concede until after Supreme Court overruled the FL court on the suit brought by Gore. Clinton did not concede gracefully in 2016, and Clinton supporters created the “resist” movement and a few in the govt used their power to work against Trump. Stacey Abrams challenge to the Georgia gubernatorial election results was supported by many liberal voices.

        Are you “sure” that he “clearly” lost? If so, why?

      • You want Trump to better than the Democratic Party for the last four years. He’s playing the long game. I think he’s taking MSM with him. Just like he took them earlier. He’ll overshadow Biden until Biden is gone. That’s him. He has trained you all.

    • Everett F Sargent

      Np one is looking for so-called angels, strawperson there even, just making sure that all those votes are counted, are certified, et cetera.

      But, you know, keep the dream alive.

    • VTG, Josh, and others can speculate all they want. But this is going to court(s). So whatever the outcome, your speculations are meaningless at this point. Me? I’ll let reality play out.

      • Jim –

        What have I speculated about?

        Your track record for uniformly taking what I say and refashioning it into something I didn’t say remains intact.

    • LEGAL votes EFS, LEGAL!

      • All caps may work with Trump supporters, but doesn’t impress judges, jim

      • Everett F Sargent

        you don’t need to shout, so 1st, please calm down. who said otherwise? they are counting all the eligible votes and not counting all the ineligible votes. are you suggesting that ineligible votes should be counted? You know, like a separate count of ineligible votes with reason for ineligibility.

    • verytallguy: Sure they do. Keep telling yourself that.

      The key word was “look”. I also “look” forward to the results of the recounts.

    • There’s very little voter fraud in the US. The Heritage Foundation found [as of today] 1,298 instances of voter fraud in 36 years. Out of about 1.8 billion votes cast.

      The Brookings Institute studied their study and said the instance of fraud they found was only 0.0000007%.

      To quote them: “The Heritage Foundation, a right-wing think tank, set out to prove that voter fraud was widespread by looking at all the cases they could find state by state. To support the fraud story, they collected data that spanned decades during which millions of votes were cast and found only [as of June 2020] 1285 cases of voter fraud. We combed through the Heritage data to look specifically at voter fraud related to absentee and mail-in ballots. Here’s a summary:

      Total cases involving absentee and/or mail ballots, or duplicate voting: 309
      Cases generating 1 fraudulent vote: 138
      Cases generating 2 or more fraudulent votes: 162
      Timeframe of sample: 1982-2018
      Ballots cast in sample period and states: 1,826,807,464
      Source: Heritage Foundation data: June 2020.

      “They looked for fraud over a 36-year period and could only find 1285 cases out of nearly two billion votes cast. That amounts to a rate of .0000007%—not exactly a threat to free and fair elections.”

      https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud/#choose-a-state

      https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/09/21/voter-fraud-fears-and-mail-worries-grab-headlines-but-the-wait-will-be-the-worry-in-2020/

      • See no evil -Unbaised Appleman’s comment – “There’s very little voter fraud in the US. The Heritage Foundation found [as of today] 1,298 instances of voter fraud in 36 years. ”

        there were at least than many in the franken/coleman race
        twice that many in the rossi washington race

        wisconsin 60% historical voting percent , with similar nation wide voting participation.
        suddenly it jumps to 80+% in 2020 with ‘mail voting”

        Bush gore 2000 -Very difficult to get dimpled ballot when punching one voting ballot at a time. Very easy to get dimpled when punching multiple ballots at one time (along with no stylus marks on ballots)
        Nope voting fraud is rare –

      • there were at least than many in the franken/coleman race
        twice that many in the rossi washington race

        What’s the evidence? How many prosecutions?

  54. Tony, here is what the Constitution and case law says.

    https://encyclopedia.lexroll.com/encyclopedia/elections-clause/

    Actually, the States have a role in the election of Senators and Representatives, but not so for the President. Election of the President and Vice President is up to the Electors. Also, Congress can override States in election matters, but in the current scenario with Dimocruks and Republicans sharing power, that won’t happen.

    • Everett F Sargent

      DHS has just released a Level 5 threat assessment aka Code Red on fraudulent rhetoric in this thread. Mainly because internet sleuths aka citizen lawyers are getting in the way of the millions of real lawyers working for Small Hands.

      The Advisory reads: Stop listening/reading/writing/talking/breathing on Wingnut Media, Inc., otherwise you may go blind/deaf/mute/paralytic.

    • jim

      I have read that, but unless fraud is the most widespread and concerted and hidden in American history I can’t see that anything will emerge that will change the result.

      I think Biden is a weak candidate but the last few days he has looked Presidential, whereas Trump has been making wild accusations that are unsupported and has looked very un-Presidential

      tonyb

      • Where’s jim2’s sleuthing when we need it:

        By one estimate, this is the most-litigated U.S. election in decades. Each day brings new court decisions in different jurisdictions, with Democrats currently winning more of them than Republicans.

        There are fights over the deadline for returning mail ballots; the packaging requirements for ballots; the financial donations cities can receive to help process mailed votes; and the number of ballot drop-box locations allowed in each county.

        These battles fit a familiar historical pattern, pitting whiter, more rural, more Republican areas against more diverse, Democratic-leaning cities.

        Underlying these fights is the new electoral reality that more Democrats intend to vote by mail during this pandemic and are fighting in court to make it easier, while [Donald] is fighting to make it harder.

        This means the rules for handling mail ballots could prove decisive, a fact acknowledged by the Republican president.

        [Donald] has called losing these lawsuits the “biggest risk” to his re-election. He’s already been declaring fraud, in claims repeatedly shown to be misleading.

        Claims of voter fraud have been used as an excuse for further restrictions, even though they have been found to be exaggerated or downright wrong, again and again and again.

        https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/u-s-election-voter-suppression-1.5764180

      • Looks can be deceiving, Tony.

      • Notice Williard falls back on the old Dimocruk line about racism. That and “The Russians” is about all they have.

  55. Is this anything serious to worry about?:

    “Republicans claim a software glitch in Michigan incorrectly sent 6,000 Trump votes to Biden before local election officials caught the error.”

    “GOP Chairwoman Laura Cox shared during a press conference that in addition to Antrim County, 47 other counties also use the software.”

     https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8923165/GOP-claims-software-glitch-Michigan-incorrectly-gave-6000-votes-Biden.html

  56. Everett F Sargent

    Well this election has been cancelled as Biden has been declared the winner

    • Well, if The New York Times says it, it must be true.

      • Everett F Sargent

        Gosh. that was way too easy, such an obvious mark. Of course it is the NYT for one rather obvious reason … you.

      • Fortunately, the media doesn’t have a legal role in the election process. It ain’t over ’till it’s over.

      • No, but the media all have reporters like the very intelligent Aaron Mishkin of Fox News. Biden’s and Trump’s teams have them as well. They know the reality. These claims of widespread fraud are mostly PR intended to fool people like you. Trump is losing lawsuit after lawsuit — all of them, so far — and not one claim of fraud has been substantiated in court. In at least one case a judge has basically laughed at their hearsay. Reporters with inside access are reporting many of Trump’s advisors are figuring out how to tell him it’s time to withdraw and who should/can do it — Ivanka? Jared? Already you can see the fight going out of his campaign and out of Republicans as they face reality. Trump has lost and he knows it.

    • New York Time? Hell, no.

  57. Trump is working on the traditional handover note. “I was robbed ya bum.”

  58. Any idea roughly how many transmitted ballots (mail in, drop box, online, etc.) there were? I heard 60 million.

  59. Pennsylvania Republicans win Supreme Court order to enforce separation of late-arriving ballots

    https://news.yahoo.com/pennsylvania-republicans-asks-supreme-court-201925981.html

  60. That was already being done at the election offices anyway.

  61. It is beginning to dawn on the Dems that without 60 Senate votes nothing radical can be done. The stupendous Biden Climate Plan is DOA in the Senate. I pointed this out three months ago:
    https://www.cfact.org/2020/07/30/bidens-false-climate-promises/

    Now the climate alarmists are just hoping to get something relatively big, like a price on carbon: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/05112020/election-2020-biden-mcconnell-senate-climate-change-policy
    Not likely.

    In fact McConnell has served notice that radicals nominated for agency leadership positions will not be approved.

    Checks and balances. Biden is checked.

  62. Checks without balances:

    Big oil and coal corporations continued their pity-party this week after Congressional Democrats blocked efforts to earmark specific taxpayer-funded carve-outs for extractive industries in the CARES Act. [one-term loser Donald] and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell left plenty of loopholes and backdoors open for big oil and coal corporations to cash in on billions of tax dollars.

    https://westernvaluesproject.org/trump-opens-backdoor-for-big-oil-and-coal-bailout/

    Who’s Mitchin’ the Mitch?

    Go Team!

  63. David W. The Senate races aren’t over, either. Just sayin’.

    This crowning of Biden is just one of the more egregious examples of “fake news.”

  64. Jo Nova is having a field day with fraud and error. Here is the latest:
    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/11/software-glitch-in-voting-machine-takes-6000-trump-votes-in-one-county-used-in-30-states/

    This ain’t over.

  65. BREAKING: Pennsylvania
    @USPS
    Whistleblower Richard Hopkins Goes Public; Confirms Federal Investigators Have Spoken With Him About Postmaster Rob Weisenbach’s Order To Backdate Ballots To November 3rd, 2020

    https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-us-postal-service-worker-goes-public-alleges-voter-fraud

    • Everett F Sargent

      Broken!
      “This story has nothing to do with the work and effort of the Erie County Board of Elections,” said Anderson. “The Erie Post Office under Postmaster Robert Weisenbach has been responsive and helpful to us. I believe the processes they use will stand as legitimate under scrutiny. We will continue to do our work and not get distracted by outside noise. The concern is about 130 ballots out of 135,000 cast ballots. They are not changing any outcomes. We will update our count to include them. The numbers are in a separate electronic silo, pending current litigation and a directive by the Pennsylvania Department of State. No further comment will be made, or needs to be made on this issue.”
      https://www.erienewsnow.com/story/42877477/erie-county-election-board-chair-addresses-ballot-backdating-allegations
      Hear that screeching? That is the sound from the grasping of straws. :)

  66. Pennsylvania House Speaker Bryan Cutler is calling for a “full audit” of the presidential election returns in the state before the results are certified.

    https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/pa-house-speaker-calls-full-audit-election-returns-theyre-certified

    • David Wojick: An overly optimistic but relatively balanced analysis:

      Thank you for the link. What parts did you think were overly optimistic?

      • This for example:

        “Beyond the higher profile parts of Biden’s campaign to ban new oil and gas leasing on federal lands, another lower profile — but perhaps even more impactful — change could occur.

        The intrigue: In its report, ClearView writes that a Biden presidency and a split Congress could compel the executive branch to look even more to the Labor Department and Securities and Exchange Commission to “leverage financial regulation to constrain (or raise the cost) of capital for fossil energy production.””

        I doubt the President can ban O&G leasing on all federal lands, and the SEC is not going to drive up the cost of capital for a particular industry.

  67. Audits never end:

  68. It seems to me that instead of foreshadowing obstructions you should plan to meet citizen aspirations.

    • Sometimes obstructions are the best course of action available.

    • Ellison’s comment “It seems to me that instead of foreshadowing obstructions you should plan to meet citizen aspirations.”

      Agenda driven questions in an agenda driven survey – Are the results really valid

      Like the survey that showed 80% of conservatives agree the government should do more to stop the “pollution” that causes global warming

    • I could expand on all on all those points. But let’s start with air. Nitrous oxides and volatile organics – precursors to tropospheric ozone – sulfate, mercury, particulates… These are all very damaging substances and cost effective technologies exist. A bigger problem in the developing economies – but one that crosses borders. It is just commonsense continuation of progress over over decades.

      And the best you can do is wave your hands about polls? The starting point is knowing what the real issue is.

      • Geoff Sherrington

        RIE,
        If you looked at the actual counts of deaths and hospitalisations from ozone, sulphates, mercury, particulates, you might realise that we do not have a global problem of any significance. You seem easily led by advertising propaganda. Geoff S

      • Developed economies have acted to reduce pollution for decades. And for good reason. The technology is advanced and cost effective.

        “An estimated 4.2 million premature deaths globally are linked to ambient air pollution, mainly from heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and acute respiratory infections in children. Worldwide ambient air pollution accounts for: 29% of all deaths and disease from lung cancer.” https://www.who.int/airpollution/ambient/health-impacts/en/#:~:text=An%20estimated%204.2%20million%20premature,and%20disease%20from%20lung%20cancer

        The dangers of mercury are well known – it is not something that we want in the environment. Along with CFC’s – that have minimal health impacts at ambient exposure – they are climate altering substances.

        This time you have outperformed your usual standard of facile and fatuous thinking.

      • Geoff Sherrington

        RIE,
        You claim “The dangers of mercury are well known – it is not something that we want in the environment.”
        My question was about the number of deaths and hospitalisations that mercury is causing. Show me the bodies. Blind Freddie would agree that we do not want in in the environment, but so far as I can judge, we are not getting it in the environment, so what is the point of your observation?.
        Pollution control is largely driven by the inherent social responsibility of managers of private enterprise. More recently, overbearing further impositions by regulators are causing extra costs for poor benefits and that is reducing the enthusiasm for private enterprise to act.
        I have been to China several times and have spoken to Chinese youngsters here in Aust. In my assessment, from this small base, I find that PM25 has been demonised in their school systems to the stage of heavy propaganda. That has not arisen from an innate desire to help the public health of people, IMO.
        Also, I had some input into safe use of uranium and its isotopes through uranium mining and its regulation. What a coincidence, a free enterprise sytem has been eminently successful in making this a non-danger to the public. Geoff S

      • No – your assertion was that deaths from pollutants are insignificant. I mentioned mercury in passing. Burning coal is a major source of environmental mercury.

        https://www.epa.gov/international-cooperation/mercury-emissions-global-context#worldwide

        With known and very serious public health impacts. The complaint in the US is that retrofitting pollutant controls to obsolete coal plants mean they can’t compete with low cost gas. So be it – they are not competitive anyway.

        https://www.who.int/ipcs/assessment/public_health/mercury/en/

        In Australia – we rightfully demand the best available technology.

        “Controlling of the mercury emitted from coal-fired power plants are considered to be as co-benefit removal from the installation of pollution treatment systems aimed in controlling the conventional air pollutants. Oxidize mercury is water-soluble and can be removed in wet scrubber such as wet flue gas desulfurization systems (WFGD). A particle-bound mercury (Hgp) is almost completely capture in particulate control equipment such as electrostatic precipitator (ESPs) and fabric filters (FFs) while elemental mercury is not usually trapped by emission control equipment and is emitted into the atmosphere. Therefore, controlling of mercury emission can be successfully achieved by selecting of the suitable and appropriate technology to reduce its emission (Burmistrz et al., 2016; Naik et al., 2009; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2002).” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7300093/

        And – btw – the size of particulates of concern is PM10 and PM2.5 – in micrometers of course – not PM25. And the data on health impact in the lungs is extensive.

        You rely on ill informed personal opinions, anecdote and a poor excuse for a libertarian ideology as usual. It is not worth the bandwidth. Or my attention – other than in being diligent in correcting misinformation.

  69. Robby Soave:
    “Media humiliated, Trumpists humbled, socialism rejected, Uber and drugs legalized, Treasury Secretary Elizabeth Warren prevented, bitterly divided government assured, dreams of transformational policy dashed. Is this the greatest election of my lifetime?”

    Yes it is. Like Joe Biden being dragged across the finish line, this one was a dumpster fire. Moses did not part the Red Sea. He built a leaky raft with room for only the elites.

    https://reason.com/2020/11/06/socialism-2020-trump-biden-rebuke-left/

    As long as the Republicans hold the Senate, I’m good. I’m good if they don’t as well. But you all are going to have make good on the U.S. government bonds I own.

    Someone from the left explain to me what was won other than the bad man is going away? I don’t want to hear about dignity. We learned that’s B.S. Tell me the prospects for a GND? You’ll Paris climate accord I know. That’s really helping.

  70. Razor thin margins make every effort to audit worthwhile …

    A computer error led election officials in Oakland County to hand an upset victory Wednesday to a Democrat, only to switch the win back to an incumbent Republican a day later.

    https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/oakland/2020/11/06/oakland-county-election-2020-race-results/6184186002/

  71. The software used to tabulate votes in one Michigan county sent at least 6,000 Republican votes to Democratic candidates, the state’s GOP Chairwoman Laura Cox revealed at a press conference Friday. The county has since swung back to Republican.

    https://thepostmillennial.com/software-glitch-caused-6-000-republican-votes-to-swing-democrat-in-michigan-county

    • LAWN AND ORDER

    • you’re beyond desperate:

      The Post Millennial: “It has been criticized for releasing misinformation and articles written by fake personas,[1] for past employment of an editor with ties to white supremacist-platforming and pro-Kremlin media outlets,[2] and for opaque funding and political connections”

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Post_Millennial

      • Michigan GOP chairwoman says software glitch tallied thousands of Republican votes as Democrat – Fox News

        Yes Wikipedia is going to have a bias. They could be describing the New York Times. The NYT has a least one editor with ties to whatever. And I think they are pro-China. What’s desperate is the NYT. That’s what you get for having TDS. The NYT is going out of business. It will be propped up by establishment money for awhile. They all ready are pathetically claiming, But we are the NYT. The walking dead. The zombie media.

        It’s like Biden returning us to the past. Really? Wrong way Biden. That’s where the young want to go. That’s what they’ve been saying all along. Jesus.

      • Dude –

        Are you really this triggered or is this some kind of play acting?

      • NY Times hits 4.7 M digital subscriptions:

  72. Has anyone stopped to think about all the money Joe Biden is now going to get for his family and how much crack you could buy with that?

  73. I’ve been listening to this guy for a few months. The argument goes like this:
    Trump asks for an audit of the digital election results. The Democrats say no. That frees up the electors of the electoral college to do their constitutional duty.

    Trump has a free asset created by the Democrats. The fear he will not leave. Trump just needs to leverage that asset to ask for the audit.

    All that stuff you said about transparency? I guess you didn’t mean that. More fun. Trump could corner them into being agaisnt transparency. This is more complicated than I hate the orange man.

    • Got 3 minutes in. Couldn’t take any more.

      No cognitive dissonance? Really?

      His whole. schtick is that Trump is a master communicator. A master manipulator.

      He’s going to lose by what, 4 million + votes?

      But yeah, it’s not that he was wrong and can’t see it. Lol.

      • At least you tried. Excuse me. What was the left talking about for the last 4 years? The whole of their existence revolved around Trump. You couldn’t watch the news without seeing that. Think about what you read about war. You can retreat all the way to Moscow. How did that work out for the Germans? You followed him into a blackhole. Trump is going to be on the Rogan podcast before the end of the year. The infighting has started before Biden won the thing, pick your day. Today or yesterday whatever.

      • The master communicator, who is so convincing and so good at manipulating people, lost to someone who can’t even construct a sentence.

        But yeah, no cognitive dissonance.

        I love it.

      • J:
        He lost.
        “In the Battle of Thermopylae of 480 BC an alliance of Greek city-states fought the invading Persian army in the mountain pass of Thermopylae. Vastly outnumbered, the Greeks held back the enemy in one of the most famous last stands of history. Persian King Xerxes led a Army of well over 100,000 (Persian king Xerxes before war has about 170,000 army) men to Greece and was confronted by 300 Spartans, 700 Thespians, and 400 Thebans.”
        List Trump’s allies.

        “…cognitive dissonance occurs when a person holds contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values, and is typically experienced as psychological stress when they participate in an action that goes against one or more of them.”
        Let’s try and find mine.
        Trump lost.
        Biden is corrupt and 75% likely the Chinese have something on him.
        Trump is good at communicating, (See him dance.)
        Hunter smoked too much crack.
        Hillary Clinton is bonkers.
        Lomborg is 95% correct.
        Trump appointed 3 to the Supreme Court.
        James Biden is a grifter and will try to hide under a rock.
        More money was spent on Biden ads.
        D.C. is too corrupt.
        A 21% corporate tax rate is better for us than a 28% one.
        The Republicans don’t grift as well the Democrats.
        Biden is in mental decline.
        The DNC stabbed Sanders in the back twice.
        The Democrats will more of less protect my stock and bond investments.
        All Blacks should have government funded education choice.
        The Democrats will not want to audit the digital election results.
        J suggested that: Biden is, …someone who can’t even construct a sentence. Which is a good sign.

      • So by your lights Biden won by about 2.5% of voters, assuming no fraud or incompetence is found that changes that percentage. And of course votes are still being counted, so there’s that.

        But 2.5% isn’t exactly a landslide and it’s not any sort of mandate either.

      • > And of course votes are still being counted, so there’s that

        And by the time it’s over the difference will be on the order of 4%-5% or even more.

        Of course it’s close – the country has been closely divided along partisan lines for a long time.

    • OK – went a bit further. Demz are supposed to freak out if Trump threatens to not leave peacefully. Supposedly that’s Trump’s genius bargaining chip – a threat to nornkeqce peacefully .

      Really? Trump threatening to not leave peacefully is a nightmare for pubz and a gift to demz. Plus it would be a total stain on Trump’s legacy and that’s all he cares about.

      Not sure Adams could get any stupider. I’d watch more to find out but it’s really not worth it.

      • Because I think it wouldn’t really amount to anything, I hope that Trump does threaten to not leave peacefully. 0

        But even Trump were that dumb to think Scott’s idea is.rikianr, he doesn’t want that kind of stain on the memory of his presidency (because he laughably prolly believes he has a shot at not being a combo laughing stock/cautionary tale).

        Trump may push to the limits of what’s legally possible even if it basically has no chance. Or he may decide that futile legal endeavors will be not a great idea. But threaten to not leave peacefully unless demz acceed to his demands? Adams is a dope.

      • Who created the fear that Trump will not leave office? The Democrats. I never thought that. The Republican politicians will escort him out. That fear does exist. It is an asset. Will he use that asset? He can corner the Democrats into not auditing the digital election results. J, you didn’t talk about the software used by some states for elections. It seems reasonable to ask for a digital audit. A lot rides on who is the President. As Adams said, he might get Biden to endorse the audit. You all ready have the right extremists talking. Biden is the uniter. He said so. Why not have an audit? What you seem to know is Adams is wrong. That thing about transparency? Just a political talking point. Cognitive dissonance. But not an audit. Tax returns yes. That’s what Trump does. He makes you take contradictory positions.

      • > Who created the fear that Trump will not leave office? The Democrats.

        Sentences one and two. Cognitive dissonance. Obviously, Trump played a role in creating that narrative. That’s even a major aspect of the Adams video you so loved. So you watched the video and glowingly posted a link and can’t even see major part of the thesis? Yup, cognitive dissonance.

        It’s like you’re an addict suffering from withdrawal. What will you do without Trump in office? Will reading his tweets and foaming at the mouth about China from under your bed five you enough of a fix?

        What happened to Mr. Macho? Now you’re bed-wetting about China 24/7? Get a dog!

      • Ragnaar is absolutely correct. This entire narrative that Trump won’t leave the White House was made up out of whole cloth by the Dimocruks. For the, lying is a way of life.

      • > This entire narrative that Trump won’t leave the White House was made up

        This is what I love about you boyz. So Trump is a master manipulator by getting the demz to cry about Trump not leaving peacefully, yet he’s a victim because the demz just made the whole thing up.

        Don’t forget he’s the master troll who wraps the press around his finger but he’s also a victim because they don’t say what he wants them to say.

        And pubz are little victims afraid to say they like Trump AND pollsters skewing their polls to suppress Trump’s support and make him a victim.

        It’s truly impressive how he can always be a victim and always be big daddy at the same time.

      • He “decisively” acted to save us all from a pandemic that would have cost millions of lives if big daddy weren’t around but the idea that millions could have died is a fabrication that was made up just to make Trump a victim.

        And a vaccine can’t save us from a fake pandemic but big daddy will save us by making a vaccine happen.

      • Who created the fear that Trump will not leave office?

        Trump, who said he’s entitled:

        “Trump suggests he would ‘negotiate’ a 3rd term as president because he is ‘probably entitled’ to it,” BusinessInsider 9/13/20
        https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-negotiate-third-term-in-office-2020-9

    • Trump will leave. The Secret Service will see to it, quite handily.

    • Geoff Sherrington

      Ragnaar,
      Strange events happen in war. This one from Rhododendron flowers in old Greece:
      “Xenophon wrote that in 401 B.C.E., a Greek army he led was returning to Greece along the shores of the Black Sea after defeating the Persians. Near Trabzon (in Northeastern Turkey), they decided to feast on local honey stolen from some nearby beehives. Hours later the troops began vomiting, had diarrhea, became disoriented and could no longer stand; by the next day the effects were gone and they continued on to Greece. The soldiers became so sick they were barely able to stand for days. Their leader came to the logical conclusion they were vulnerable to attack and forced his barely mobile army to escape from the area.
      View at Medium.com

  74. Pro-Trump Sky News Australia summarises the case for potential mail-in voter fraud:

    • Lol.

      “False polls designed to suppress”

      So on the one hand the polls were wrong because snowflake Pub were too afraid to say they liked Trump because they’d get picked on by bulky demz. So they lied about who they were going to vote for.

      And on the other hand the polls were wrong because the pollsters deliberately skewed their results to make Trump look bad ans suppress the vote.

      Of course, the logic of the two theories are mutually exclusive. But the one thing we know for sure is that in the end, the poor little pubz wind up the helpless victims.

      • That’s great. “summarizes the case” by showing a clip of how when the votes were counted the leader changed?

        Dude. Are you serous? Is that really representative of the quality of Australian journalism?

  75. Alan will sure appreciate:

    Creating false evidence

    Kobach, von Spakovsky and Adams worked in the justice department in the George W Bush administration at a time when pursuing claims of voter fraud was a priority. Since leaving, a core part of their strategy has been to distort statistics to depict voter fraud as a widespread problem.

    As Kansas’s top election official, Kobach found a remarkably effective way to do this. He oversaw Interstate Crosscheck, a consortium of dozens of states that agreed to share voter data to find people registered in more than one state. The system matched voters by their first name, last name, date of birth and partial social security number.

    One academic study found that more than 99% of the people the system flagged as duplicates were actually distinct voters. It was also more likely to flag eligible voters than ineligible ones. In 2013, Virginia officials used Crosscheck to remove nearly 39,000 voters from the state’s rolls, but one local registrar reported that 17% of voters in his county were wrongfully flagged and some voters turned up at the polls to find they weren’t registered.

    Kansas agreed to end the Crosscheck program last year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/26/us-election-voter-fraud-mail-in-ballots

    • The reason I’m slightly sceptical is because I see the analogy with climate science misguidance.

      • The reason why I don’t believe you’re really being skeptical is because I studied skepticism and you don’t have it, Alan.

        Here’s a better analogy for what you’re doing:

  76. Well, darn, I missed the Harris acceptance speech. Did anything notable occur?

  77. There seem to be a lot of people violating COVID restrictions to celebrate together in large groups. Soon to be followed by “superspreader” stories?

  78. High risk of flooding in Florida from tropical storm Eta:

    “The latest data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph. Some strengthening is possible through Sunday night and Eta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches Florida.”

    https://www.local10.com/weather/2020/11/07/south-florida-under-tropical-storm-watch-as-eta-forecast-to-strengthen/

    • A storm surge in conjunction with tides is predicted to raise water levels by 2 to 4 feet, making normally dry areas prone to tidal flooding.

      This is the feature which will become much more highlighted in future hurricane predictions (imo) due to the underlying climate driver of increasing tidal strength.

      • Robert, the first line reads:

        “Worldwide, ocean tides have exhibited trends over the past century that cannot be explained by the orbital mechanics underlying predictable tidal variability.”

        That statement is fallacious because it *assumes* that orbital mechanics are well understood by mainstream science. The galaxy rotation curve anomaly shows that orbital mechanics are far from well understood. The concept of dark matter had to be invoked, with ~84% of it undetectable and still “missing”. This is why gravity theory can’t be left out of climate science. They are both part of the one big picture.

        You say I’ve got cause & effect the wrong way round yet you link to data which shows temperature increase is an effect of climate change, which just happens to agree with the tidal forcing hypothesis.

        Open up to reality. All the data agrees with the increasing tides being the underlying driver of climate change. At least it should be acknowledged as a possibility, yet science politics prevents outsider opinion of the mainstream narrative.

      • You got to the first line? Newtonian gravity is calculable to a fine precision. That why it works. Your idea of exotic gravity barely merits the status of a thought bubble.

      • Open up to reality. The clouds are not observed to be influenced by the passing of the Moon, unlike the ocean tides which clearly are. The true logical conclusion is that the bulge of the solid earth pushes the oceans from beneath to create the change in tidal range.

        Newtonian gravity can be shown to be wrong through natural philosophy and the use of ones own eyes. The future’s children will look back in wonder at how unbelievably confused and misguided our generations have been.

      • Alan – you are what is known as a sky-dragon slayer. An especially unsophisticated one who rails against – inter alia – Newton and Einstein.

        I felt I should link a relevant scientific paper. It is a simple paper with mechanisms and math. But it just isn’t worth arguing with you about your misbegotten notions.

      • There is no paper that can stop people from seeing the truth.

      • A scientific truth is more than a guess.

      • Yes – it doesn’t matter how offbeat your guess is – if it doesn’t agree with experiment it’s wrong. Your thought bubble hasn’t been tested. Unlike Feynman – it has such a nebulous basis on which to claim to rewrite the scientific fundament.

      • Alan wrote:
        The galaxy rotation curve anomaly shows that orbital mechanics are far from well understood.

        You have it exactly backwards. It’s BECAUSE orbital mechanics is so well understood that Zwicky, Rubin, Ford et al were able to infer the existence of dark matter in galaxies.

        NASA used orbital mechanics to get to the Moon and back. Think they didn’t understand the science.

      • Like when a skater who brings her arms close in and spins faster – the Newtonian physics work perfectly well. On the scale of the Triangulum rotating galactic disk – observations depart from expectations. That may be because of dark matter.

        https://blogs-images.forbes.com/briankoberlein/files/2016/09/M33_rotation_curve_HI.gif?

      • Quoting Feynman is a sign one has lost the argument. Always.

  79. The amount of energy produced and released by human activities is much higher than the unmeasurably small the trace gas CO2 greenhouse warming effect.

    http://www.cristos-vournas.com

    • Christos Vournas wrote:
      The amount of energy produced and released by human activities is much higher than the unmeasurably small the trace gas CO2 greenhouse warming effect.

      Care to prove that?

      (It’s not true.)

  80. President Joe Biden gives a great speech:

    “I’ll have the honour of serving with the fantastic vice president, Kamala Harris, who makes history as the first woman, black woman, the first woman of south Asian descent, the first daughter of immigrants ever elected in this country. Don’t tell me it’s not possible in the United States. It’s long overdue.”

    I suggest the whole Democratic world will soon choose to elect the best female candidate to represent them, in opposition to the male dominated Communist Party of China.

  81. NASA has prepared a catastrophic polar ice melt and sea level rise scenario for Biden or so it seems.

    https://wp.me/pTN8Y-5ex

    • The anomalous geothermal increase under parts of Greenland is interesting.

      You might be interested in a similar anomalous warming of Lake Tanganiyka at 900m+, measured over decades. You can download the .pdf file for free after googling ‘The Physics of Warming of Lake Tanganiyka’ by Verbuga, and take a careful look at Fig3. Surface warming and mixing makes no intuitive sense to the data what-so-ever.

  82. I heard this speech in the middle of the night live. I thought to myself, he’s very SHOUTY and at the end the commentator said the same.

    I guess its because Biden is not a natural orator and can’t use tone and nuance in the same way as say Obama. Mind you I thought the content itself was pretty good and well crafted and must have reassured those on both sides.

    What of Kamala Harris, very likely to step into Joes shoes before 2024 or at the least has a good chance of becoming President afterwards.? Her orating style is also pretty poor and her messages not so reassuring which is presumably why she got nowhere in her own run for the Presidency.

    Will she edge towards the mainstream or veer away from it? Those regulars here will know her much better than me, because as with Pence, the Vice Presidents don’t get a lot of attention over here.

    tonyb

    • I understand that Biden has a stutter so speaking in the forcible manner I heard in the night might be a technique for dealing with it. Speaking at an important public event will presumably make Biden even more cautious

      • Biden is senile. Don’t believe that stutter nonsense. Commiela will be very soon President of the US.

      • The countdown has begun. The question is what happens first: Son of Mao being investigated for his Chinese ties or proceedings to invoke the 25th Amendment provisions to remove him for being incapacitated.

        The magic number is 4. If he falls asleep more than 4 times during his Inaugural Address, the process of triggering the 25th Amendment will begin.

    • > Mind you I thought the content itself was pretty good and well crafted and must have reassured those on both sides.

      What have you been watching for the last four years, Tony?

      There will be a few on the Trump side who will be “reaasured” if Biden continues to prioritize “unity” and bipartisanship. Some people who actually value those goals did nonetheless support Trump – even if more Republicans who value those goals left the party.

      But….I dare say that relatively few, if any at all, of his supporters are animated by such goals and in fact are much more animated by hatred and a zero sum, scorched earth approach to Biden and his supporters. That’s why they loved Trump as much as they did – precisely because he so energetically and unapologetically embraced that posture. And I would guess that any true interest from Biden, beyond lip service, towards bipartisanship and unity will run into heavy resistence from the left of his party and be completely rejected by the vast majority of Pub politicians who are fully convinced that Trump’s brand of politics is the best way to go. I hope I’m wrong (and surprised) but I think that McConnell, Cruz, et al. will be in full on no-compromise obstructionist mode just as they were with Obama. Their main target will be to eliminate any possibility of any success under Biden’s administration, as any such success will limit their future political aspirations. Riding on the coattails of Trump’s hate campaign will be the way to go even when he’s out of office. There may be a few non-conformists but they will certainly be minority.

      • This whole “unity” thing is nothing more than a dog whistle for a large part of the left. We are split because we view the world in very different ways. It is a fundamental fact of nature right now. No President has the power to change our views because we are talking about core beliefs.

        I’ve been patiently waiting for that feeling of unity to sweep over me. Still waiting.

      • J:
        You see things from your side. Trump taught the Republicans to fight. The Democrats have been doing that for at least 50 years. The Democrat Party is falling apart. They picked about the worst two to hold it together. AOC ain’t going anywhere. The Democrats are rich D.C establishment. Pelosi. The Senate. There’s no benefit to compromise. Unity is some cheap slogan to get elected and you know that. There was no unity with calling Trump a racist, facist colluder. Unity a wish of children. Biden has no vision. That will be behind the scenes with those behind the scenes stabbing each other in the back. I bet his own side will hold Hunter and James over his head. He’ll be happy to get out. You did not elect a competent fighter.

      • > . Trump taught the Republicans to fight. The Democrats have been doing that for at least 50 years.

        Right. Newt Gingrich never existed. McConnell didn’t exist during the Obama administration.

        I think you’re in the delusion stages of withdrawal.

        The Tea Party never existed (and the Trump movement didn’t grow out of that).

        Rush Limbaugh? Never existed.

        Trump created it all. Because he’s big daddy.

      • “…animated by such goals and in fact are much more animated by hatred….”

        Lol. A hoot coming from the side who calls anyone they disagree with a bigo*, raci*t, homopho*e, xenopho*e, on and on and on, constant hatred and divisiveness.

        Your comment prompted my second biggest laugh of the weekend. Last week my 2 masters degreed teacher leftwing daughters came over and were giving me grief for supporting Trump. My 12 year old granddaughter was taking it all in while watching her grandpa get verbally abused. Yesterday, immediately after the networks called Biden’s win, she texted my wife and said “Tell grandpa, ha ha.”

        That was my biggest laugh.

        I thought you would try to weasel out of and make excuses for my linked New Yorker article which chronicled Biden’s history of despicable raci*t quotes and sentiments. Shame, shame.

      • Kid –

        > Lol. A hoot coming from the side who calls anyone they disagree with a bigo*, raci*t, homopho*e, xenopho*e, on and on and on, constant hatred and divisiveness.

        I wonder what % of your reasoning aboir conflicting viewpoints boils down to “wah, they’re bigger ones” or “waaah, they do it too,” or “waaaaaaaah, they did it first”?

        I’d like to get that number and then conduct a study of 13 year-olds in a typical midddle school to compare and see which % would be higher. What do you think?

        Maybe ask your granddaughter and see what she thinks? But if she says that she thinks that the % is higher for you, please refrain from crying for big daddy Trump to come protect you as you wouldn’t want to set a bad example.

      • Trump taught the Republicans to fight.
        The voters. To vote for Trump in light of all the slime thrown at him. To gain seats in the Senate in 2018 and in the House is 2020. To stop being Democrats who were abandoned. I see the level you’re referring to. Trump’s rallies targeted the voters.

      • Ragnaar – you are right. I can’t count how many times the Republicans have rolled over on the government funding bills. They would give Dimocruks anything to avoid being painted as holding up the money rain.

    • Tony

      No one in the press will ever bring up this thoughtful piece written by a leftwing rag in 2019 when they wanted someone to his left.

      https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/03/joe-biden-record-on-busing-incarceration-racial-justice-democratic-primary-2020-explained.html

    • tonyb,
      I wish Biden could grab Jared Kushner and appoint him Ambassador to Britan and fix the mess you guys called Brexit.
      Kushner was Trump’s “Rocket Man” (no, the real one: Wernher von Braun) and perhaps the key to unlocking the secrets of controlling the minds of a Trump voters. I think Kushner was truly the indispensable man in the Trump administration. Watch him.

      • The Dimocruks tried to slime Kushner as inexperienced, yet he and Trump have made more progress towards peace in the Middle East than anyone else. There is so much the media chose to ignore to get slo-mo Joe elected.

      • Jim2,

        You seem quite unable to make a post without including juvenile names for people or groups you disagree with.

        How old are you?

      • jim2 !!! What!
        Everyone knows Jared is very intelligent – genius maybe – he’s got good genes ya know.
        Jared Corey Kushner (born January 10, 1981) is an American investor, real estate developer, … political affiliations, Democratic (until 2009)

        Not registered with either political party between 2009 and 2018 when he filled as a Republican.
        PS: He’s richer than Trump I bet.

      • VTG – if the slur fits, wear it.

  83. The Australian Police Force commissioners are making formal complaints to their governments concerning Covid-19 restriction enforcements:

    https://advocateme.wixsite.com/copsforcovidtruth/the-project

    Click on the open letter for a passionate statement.

  84. Anyone interested in doing something good for the biosphere? Help save the Asprete! A “living fossil” 70 million year old fish in Romanian rivers (now one river only), there are only a couple of dozen left. They’ve been decimated not by global warming or climate change, but by destructive hydroelectric projects.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54823866

  85. Silly human pollsters got it wrong, again.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/artificial-intelligence-shows-potential-to-gauge-voter-sentiment-11604704009?mod=djemalertNEWS
    “Expert.ai’s system projected that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden would win 50.2% of the popular vote and Republican President Donald Trump would get 47.3% of the vote, a 2.9 percentage-point margin. As of Friday afternoon, Mr. Biden had 50.5% of the popular vote compared with Mr. Trump’s 47.8%, a 2.7 percentage-point margin. (Dow Jones & Co., which publishes The Wall Street Journal, is an Expert.ai customer.)

    Unanimous.ai, sells what is known as swarm-intelligence software. It uses AI models to aggregate predictions and decisions from groups of people, such as investors predicting commodity prices.

    Chief Executive Louis Rosenberg said his team used the software to run a live survey of 50 people in the U.S. in September, asking them to predict who they thought would win the presidential contest in 11 battleground states and by what margin.

    As of Friday morning, that September survey had correctly predicted the winner of the presidential vote in eight battleground state races as called by the Associated Press. It is on track to correctly predict the other three. The survey also generally predicted which of the races would be tighter.

    Unanimous.ai’s live survey allows users to see what other participants are choosing in real time, and machine-learning algorithms assess who has the most confidence in their predictions, based on factors such as answer changes. The most confident answers have the greatest influence on the final aggregated answer.

    “Our data was 50 randomly selected voters and then the use of a swarm to amplify their intelligence; it wasn’t 100,000 poll samples,” Dr. Rosenberg said. “Again and again, we see that we’re able to outperform really huge polls.”

    Welcome to the Age of AI.

    • Give it enough time, and will correctly predict everything. In hindsight.

    • AI is already mind blowing:

      “Starting from random play, and given no domain knowledge except the game rules, AlphaZero achieved within 24 hours a superhuman level of play in the games of chess and shogi [a similar Japanese board game] as well as Go, and convincingly defeated a world-champion program in each case,”

      Apply this to weather models?

    • There is a continuum of processes in weather and climate – e.g. https://journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/90/12/1819/59597/A-Unified-Modeling-Approach-to-Climate-System

      Far beyond games of chess or 50 polled people – machine learning is the only way to deal with the amount of data being generated in geosciences. Limitations currently include insufficiencies in observation systems some 3000 times too little computing power.

      “Notwithstanding the success of machine learning in the geosciences,important caveats and limitations have hampered its wider adoption and impact. A few pitfalls such as the risk of naive extrapolation, sampling or other data biases, ignorance of confounding factors, interpretation of statistical association as causal relation, or fundamental
      flaws in multiple hypothesis testing (‘P-fishing’)27–29 should be avoided by best practice and expert intervention. More fundamentally, there are inherent limitations of machine learning approaches as applied at present. It is in this realm that the techniques of deep learning promise breakthroughs.”

      Click to access reichsteinNature2019.pdf

      • Often called the missing link in AI is the human ability of causal reasoning. It’s why infants only need a few impressions of a sample category to identify members of a set. They can learn the difference between a cat and a dog after just a few observations for example. This behavior in adults is call Intuition.
        “DeepMind Research Introduces Algorithms for Causal Reasoning in Probability Trees”
        https://www.marktechpost.com/2020/10/30/deepmind-research-introduces-algorithms-for-causal-reasoning-in-probability-trees/
        “Humans naturally learn reasoning to a great extent through inducing causal relationships from observations, and according to cognitive scientists, we do it quite well. Even with sparse and limited data, humans can quickly learn causal structures (such as observations of the co-occurrence frequencies between causes and effects, interactions between physical objects, etc.).

        Causal induction is a classic problem in ML and statistics. Models, such as causal Bayesian networks (CBNs), can describe the causal dependencies for causal induction. But CBNs are not capable of representing context-specific independencies. According to the DeepMind team, the algorithms cover the whole causal hierarchy and operate on random propositional and causal events, expanding the causal reasoning to “a very general class of discrete stochastic processes.”

      • Strip it of formal verbiage? Computers can’t think.

  86. Welcome to the Banana Republic USA.
    An alert candidate seizes the initiative and declares himself President without bothering to wait for a resolution of court challenges.

    • Does trump have a single creditable federal lawsuit to challenge the projected result? It doesn’t seem that is the case.

      • There are multiple arguments that if won would lead to recounts, rejected ballots, nullified results, etc., so reversal is not impossible.

    • We are taking on attributes of Banana Republics. Bought off by money. That’s where we want to go. To sacrifice the future because of the hate of one man. This is short sighted.

  87. I have done a good bit of litigation support over the years, advising attorneys on the strengths and weaknesses of their arguments. Helped win a few big cases. Here is my method: http://www.stemed.info/reports/Wojick_Issue_Analysis_txt.pdf

    In this case there is a lot of interesting stuff, with a lot more coming. The software glitch is especially interesting.

    The basic rule is this: A civil trial is always a crap shoot. Anybody who claims to know how this will turn out is kidding themselves. Anything can happen, so stay tuned.

  88. Notice Conservatives aren’t burning down cities like Black Lives Matter And Antifa have been doing this year. Notice Conservatives aren’t roaming streets terrorizing peaceful citizens. Notice Conservatives aren’t looting the neighborhood Walmart.

    They are the adults in the room. They will wait for the next election.

      • The Biden SUV was the aggressor. But nice try, Williard. Hint: Look at the outside stripe on the right.

      • “ The Biden SUV was the aggressor”

        Look again.
        The white car had clearly strayed well across the lane marker, when we see your “aggression” take place.
        What would you do if someone was trying to push you off the road?
        Or is someone defending their own lane the “aggressor” or in Trump land?

      • Curious George

        Did you see the 6″ naval gun they were armed with?

  89. About the Scott Adams video I link to above, What is Joe Biden hiding? China or somebody else could’ve hacked the election. Who thinks they didn’t try? Tell me what cannot be hacked? I think it would be reasonable to ask for an audit of the digital results. If we can’t trust the voting, if we can’t be sure every voted has been counted, what do we have? Confidence in government is below that of confidence that Hunter Biden was hired for worldly skills. They all took a vote to uphold the Constitution. Not to kind of when it’s our guy, don’t worry about it. Not to say things like, We don’t know it’s been hacked. Or this is Russian ploy, to have us do an audit. It’s a Russian ploy to have us have greater confidence our election was not hacked. Since Biden is against audits, the IRS will now no longer do them. Because they’re a Russian ploy too. Audits of the votes are Un-American. You don’t see third world dictatorships doing them do you? Joe Biden is colluding in plain sight. The Democrats have covered their ears and are saying nah-nah-nah-nah. We have been saved.

  90. Does anybody live near snow with sunshine who is reading this? Please do the world a huge favour and buy a £10 thermal heat gun and take a wooden board to block out the sun’s rays. Measure the IR heat from the snow which will give a digital readout in the shade and then remove the board to full sunshine. Now take the second reading.

    I’ll bet that there’s virtual no change in output, certainly not an 80% reflection of energy as stated here:

    “Arctic sea ice plays a crucial role in the Earth’s energy balance. It is covered for most of the year by snow, which is the brightest natural surface on the planet, reflecting about 80% of the solar radiation that hits it back out to space.”

    https://earthsky.org/earth/why-arctic-winter-sea-ice-stalled-2020

    • Take one white car and one black car and park them in the sun.

    • Alan, there is the surface diffuse reflection and the surface specular reflection.
      In the experiment you mention with the snow reflecting sun rays you measured the diffuse reflection.
      To measure the specular reflection one should measure the mirroring of the sun rays from the snow. The specular reflection is directed in the opposite direction of the position of sun.
      And, for specular reflection the angle of incidence equals the angle of reflection.

      Thus the first statement in the article in the link you provided is correct:

      “Arctic sea ice plays a crucial role in the Earth’s energy balance. It is covered for most of the year by snow, which is the brightest natural surface on the planet, reflecting about 80% of the solar radiation that hits it back out to space.”

      https://earthsky.org/earth/why-arctic-winter-sea-ice-stalled-2020

      The ocean’s surface also has diffuse and specular reflection abilities.
      Water has less diffuse reflection that ice or snow have. That is why water is considered the darkest surface on the planet.
      Nevertheless water has a very strong specular reflection. Water reflects the incident solar energy as a mirror.

      The intensity of specular reflection is angle of incidence dependent value.
      For the low sun in the arctic the arctic ocean specular reflection of the rays of the sun is the strongest on Earth.

      Thus, when arctic water is free from ice there is only a small fraction of the incident on the arctic oceanic surface solar energy which is absorbed. The rest, the same as for ice and snow is reflected back to space.

      Thus, the second part of the statement:

      “Meanwhile, the ocean it floats on is the darkest natural surface on the planet, absorbing 90% of incident solar radiation. For that reason, changes in sea ice cover have a big impact on how much sunlight the planet absorbs, and how fast it warms up.”

      is mistaken…

      http://www.cristos-vournas.com

    • Light that isn’t reflected warms the surface and emits IR in frequencies determined by temperature.

      • Bob:
        “Reflected light varies as the incident light varies, and is not temperature dependent. SB emission varies with temperature, and is not dependent on incident light”

        “Reflected light varies as the incident light varies, and is not temperature dependent.”
        Agreed.

        “SB emission varies with temperature, and is not dependent on incident light”.
        It is true for the bodies with by their own inner energy the SB emission temperature.
        Examples of such bodies are the sun, the stars, or a heated-red in a stove metallic rod. Also the burning coal.
        Bodies in room temperature the emission SB temperature is the room temperature.

        But it is not the case when a “cold” body is radiated by sun.
        The emission temperature is determined then by the fraction of radiative energy not being reflected (the diffuse reflection + the specular reflection).

        http://www.cristos-vournas.com

    • Light that isn’t reflected is emitted as IR, and the IR emission frequencies determine the surface temperature.

      This surface temperature creates the surface-inner layers temperature gradient that actually is the cause of the by the surface energy absorption.

      In short – when interacting with the surface the solar electromagnetic energy is partly reflected and partly emitted.

      There is always a small fraction of this energy left to be absorbed. It happens because the solar energy-surface interaction process is an imperfect and depends on the surface properties.

      These properties are the surface smoothness, the surface specific heat and the planet’s rotational spin.

      http://www.cristos-vournas.com

      • The first differential global energy equation can be written as the change in heat and work in the system is equal to energy in less energy out at the top of atmosphere.

        Δ(heat and work) = Ein – Eout

        Energy is conserved and planetary rotation makes not a jot of difference.

      • Christos
        “In short – when interacting with the surface the solar electromagnetic energy is partly reflected and partly emitted.
        There is always a small fraction of this energy left to be absorbed.”

        Huh?
        The solar electromagnetic energy has to be absorbed before it can be emitted. You make it sound like this is not the case.

      • Bob,
        “Christos
        “In short – when interacting with the surface the solar electromagnetic energy is partly reflected and partly emitted.
        There is always a small fraction of this energy left to be absorbed.”

        Huh?
        The solar electromagnetic energy has to be absorbed before it can be emitted. You make it sound like this is not the case.”

        Thank you, Bob. I should have explained.

        I apply here the two different blackbody surface concepts theory.

        1. The blackbody surface with its own inner source of energy, like sun, like stars. This blackbody surface emits according to the Stefan-Boltzmann emission law, in accordance with its absolute temperature T in fourth power.

        2. The blackbody surface without its own inner source of energy. This blackbody surface does not warm from the incident radiation. What it does is to emit the incident energy back to space.
        The emission temperature and therefore the emission frequencies are determined in accordance to Stefan-Boltzmann law, dependent only on the incident radiation intensity W/m2.

        Thus, the incident on a planet solar energy is partly reflected and partly emitted. The small amount left is absorbed and accumulated in the inner layers.

        When radiated the surface interacts instantly, it is so fast, the energy skips the warming part and goes straight to the emission.

        Some – a small amount of energy is accumulated.
        This by surface accumulated energy accounts for the blackbody 1 emission concept.
        Thus we always have two kinds of emission.

        1. Because of the planet’s surface calorimetric temperature. It is a much weaker surface IR emission.

        2. Because of the planet’s instant interaction with the incident on the surface energy. It is a strong surface IR emission determined by the solar irradiation intensity (season, latitude and hour – the angle of incidence, and the albedo)

        The radiation’s intensity is described in W/m2 term.
        The accumulated by surface energy is described in cal/gr term.

        W/m2 and cal/gr are different physic terms.

        Light that isn’t reflected is emitted as IR, and the IR emission frequencies determine the surface temperature.

        This surface temperature creates the surface-inner layers temperature gradient that actually is the cause of the by the surface energy accumulation.

        Thank you again Bob.

        http://www.cristos-vournas.com

      • The correct theory is that sunlight is reflected from clouds, ice, surfaces and aerosols back into space. Planetary albedo changes constantly and gives rise – as feedback – to glacials and hothouse Earth and everything in between. The bulk causes land and oceans to warm or cool in accordance with the energy balance at the top of the atmosphere. Energy in less energy out. Energy in changes very little. Energy out to space – through the atmosphere – varies a great deal as planetary albedo changes and IR emission increase as T to the 4th power with rising temperature – and vice versa. The secret to a planetary energy equilibrium. This is where greenhouse gases come into play – much as you hate that they do.

        You have confused yourself with quite unnecessary and unphysical doggerel couched in pseudo science jargon. As appealing as being a hero may be – there is a dominant scientific paradigm – well beyond consensus nonsense – and you really should try to understand it through 10,000 hours of study and work before overturning it. This is elementary stuff – we expect 12 year olds to understand. And you haven’t got anywhere near the fun bits of climate yet.

      • Christos
        “When radiated the surface interacts instantly, it is so fast, the energy skips the warming part and goes straight to the emission.”

        This confuses me. If the incident radiation were to increase, so would the rate of ‘instant’ emission – but I thought a change in emission was tied to a change in temperature?

      • Bob,
        “Christos
        “When radiated the surface interacts instantly, it is so fast, the energy skips the warming part and goes straight to the emission.”

        This confuses me. If the incident radiation were to increase, so would the rate of ‘instant’ emission – but I thought a change in emission was tied to a change in temperature?”

        The radiation interacts with the very first layer of molecules.
        If the incident radiation were to increase, so would the rate of ‘instant’ emission.
        Stefan-Boltzmann emission law temperature associated with the new IR emission intensity will rise too.
        There will be a new temperature gradient developed between the first and the inner layers, so the accumulation rate will increase too.

        Thank you for asking.

        http://www.cristos-vournas.com

      • Christos,

        “When radiated the surface interacts instantly, it is so fast, the energy skips the warming part and goes straight to the emission.”

        Skipping the warming part and going straight to emission….. you seem to have described the situation whereby light is reflected, rather than absorbed.

        If not, please explain how light is reflected, and how that differs from the above.

      • Bob,
        “Skipping the warming part and going straight to emission….. you seem to have described the situation whereby light is reflected, rather than absorbed.

        If not, please explain how light is reflected, and how that differs from the above.”

        SW reflection and IR emission occur the same very instant solar irradiation hits surface. Both, reflection and emission, are surface interaction with the incident electromagnetic wave outcomes.

        Depending on surface properties the incident electromagnetic energy is processed into SW reflection and into IR emission.

        The ratio of SW reflection and IR emission is surface properties dependent value.
        The same when considering the by surface energy accumulation ratio. The energy accumulation ratio is also surface properties dependent value.

        Thank you for asking.

        http://www.cristos-vournas.com

      • Paraphrasing –
        Me: Could you explain the process whereby light is reflected rather than emitted?
        You: Surface interaction.

        Best you can do, Christos?

      • Bob,
        “Paraphrasing –
        Me: Could you explain the process whereby light is reflected rather than emitted?
        You: Surface interaction.

        Best you can do, Christos?”

        The solar energy intensity W/m² primarily reaching the planet’s surface is what actually determines the planet’s surface temperatures.

        In other words it is the distance from the sun which makes the solar energy reaching planet weaker.

        It is the square inverse law: 1 /R² – where R is the distance from the sun in AU (astronomical units).

        What planet’s surface is capable to do with the incoming solar energy (how effectively it is capable to hold the incoming energy) also determines the level of the surface temperatures.

        One of the energy “holding” planet’s surface properties is the atmosphere greenhouse effect.

        Only in Earth’s case the greenhouse effect is very weak and cannot be considered as an important Earth’s surface warming factor.

        Other factors influencing planet’s surface temperature are the planet’s surface reflection ability and the planet’s surface emission /accumulation ratio.

        http://www.cristos-vournas.com

      • Christos,
        My question about reflected versus emitted light was with regard to molecules/atoms. This is from an entry level description:

        “Rather the electrons of atoms on the material’s surface vibrate for short periods of time and then reemit the energy as a reflected light wave. Such frequencies of light are said to be reflected.”

        https://tinyurl.com/y6tv45pt

        Notice, here, that energy is said to be reemitted in the form of reflected light.

        Which is similar to your statement here:

        “When radiated the surface interacts instantly, it is so fast, the energy skips the warming part and goes straight to the emission.”

        IOW,
        The process whereby energy skips the warming part and goes strait to emission (rather than being absorbed or transmitted), is the same process whereby light is reflected.

      • Bob,

        “Christos,
        My question about reflected versus emitted light was with regard to molecules/atoms. This is from an entry level description:

        “Rather the electrons of atoms on the material’s surface vibrate for short periods of time and then reemit the energy as a reflected light wave. Such frequencies of light are said to be reflected.”

        https://tinyurl.com/y6tv45pt

        Notice, here, that energy is said to be reemitted in the form of reflected light.

        Which is similar to your statement here:

        “When radiated the surface interacts instantly, it is so fast, the energy skips the warming part and goes straight to the emission.”

        IOW,
        The process whereby energy skips the warming part and goes strait to emission (rather than being absorbed or transmitted), is the same process whereby light is reflected.”

        Thank you Bob.
        Thank you for your participation and thank you for the link.

        Bob you wrote:
        ““Rather the electrons of atoms on the material’s surface vibrate for short periods of time and then reemit the energy as a reflected light wave. Such frequencies of light are said to be reflected.”

        It is a very important statement. With that statement we acknowledge that the matter when interacting with light re-emits energy we call it reflected light.

        What i try to say is that the IR emission is the same re-emission process as the reflected light only in lower frequencies.

        http://www.cristos-vournas.com

      • Robert:
        “You have confused yourself with quite unnecessary and unphysical doggerel couched in pseudo science jargon. As appealing as being a hero may be – there is a dominant scientific paradigm – well beyond consensus nonsense – and you really should try to understand it through 10,000 hours of study and work before overturning it. This is elementary stuff – we expect 12 year olds to understand. And you haven’t got anywhere near the fun bits of climate yet.”

        Thank you Robert.

        Robert, when you see the picture of the bright snowy white ice sheets floating in the dark water you conclude the snow reflects light and water absorbs light.

        Robert, you see the surroundings in the diffuse light, as all of us do.

        There are two kinds of reflection of light. The specular reflection of light and the diffuse reflection of light.

        Robert, if it were for oceans to absorb the entire incident on the oceanic surface solar light Earth would have been a hot-planet.

        Hopefully there is the specular reflection that doesn’t permit that.

        The specular reflection is much stronger energy-vise outgoing radiation than the diffuse reflection you see the world in.

        Thank you anyway.

        http://www.cristos-vournas.com

      • The 200 year old mystery of quantum mechanics. As we are not all the time observing light down to fundamental particles – something to do with quantum entanglement – I assume it is behaving like waves. Some wave frequencies bounce of surfaces like water waves off a barrier in a ripple tank. It matters little in this context whether it is specular or diffuse reflection. It all adds up to global albedo. Some surfaces are good at reflecting light – like mirrors – some are not – like asphalt. The colours we see are the light frequencies bounced off surfaces and not absorbed.

      • Robert – you’re talking BS.

        If an object is seen as green, for example, the white light is absorbed by the surface material and light is emitted with every frequency *except* green. It’s your brain which interprets the colour as green because it is the only frequency which is absent.

        I learnt that in my art class incidentally.

      • Thank you Robert for the interesting link:

        https://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/resources/47-colours-of-light#:~:text=Colour%20of%20objects&text=For%20example%2C%20a%20red%20shirt,is%20reflected%20from%20the%20shirt.

        The subject is been described well, I liked it and here is an abstract:

        “Light is made up of wavelengths of light, and each wavelength is a particular colour. The colour we see is a result of which wavelengths are reflected back to our eyes.

        The visible spectrum

        The visible spectrum showing the wavelengths of each of the component colours. The spectrum ranges from dark red at 700 nm to violet at 400 nm.

        Visible light
        Visible light is the small part within the electromagnetic spectrum that human eyes are sensitive to and can detect.

        Visible light waves consist of different wavelengths. The colour of visible light depends on its wavelength. These wavelengths range from 700 nm at the red end of the spectrum to 400 nm at the violet end.

        Visible light
        Visible light waves are the only electromagnetic waves we can see. We see these waves as the colours of the rainbow. Each colour has a different wavelength. Red has the longest wavelength, and violet has the shortest wavelength. When all the waves are seen together, they make white light.

        White light is actually made of all of the colours of the rainbow because it contains all wavelengths, and it is described as polychromatic light. Light from a torch or the Sun is a good example of this.

        Light from a laser is monochromatic, which means it only produces one colour. (Lasers are extremely dangerous and can cause permanent eye damage. Extreme care must be taken to ensure that light from a laser never enters someone’s eyes.)

        Colour of objects
        Objects appear different colours because they absorb some colours (wavelengths) and reflected or transmit other colours. The colours we see are the wavelengths that are reflected or transmitted.

        For example, a red shirt looks red because the dye molecules in the fabric have absorbed the wavelengths of light from the violet/blue end of the spectrum. Red light is the only light that is reflected from the shirt. If only blue light is shone onto a red shirt, the shirt would appear black, because the blue would be absorbed and there would be no red light to be reflected.

        White objects appear white because they reflect all colours. Black objects absorb all colours so no light is reflected.

        Red shirt and blue shorts

        Why does the shirt look red and the shorts blue? The shirt looks red because the shirt absorbs the other colours and only reflects red waves. The blue shorts reflect blue and absorb green, yellow and red.

        http://www.cristos-vournas.com

      • Alan Lowey wrote:
        If an object is seen as green, for example, the white light is absorbed by the surface material and light is emitted with every frequency *except* green. It’s your brain which interprets the colour as green because it is the only frequency which is absent.

        Alan, it’s amazing how many times you get the science completely backwards.

      • Christos

        “What i try to say is that the IR emission is the same re-emission process as the reflected light only in lower frequencies.”

        Not at all.
        Reflected light varies as the incident light varies, and is not temperature dependent. SB emission varies with temperature, and is not dependent on incident light.

      • Christos – it’s a children’s educational website I linked to correct some elementary misinformation. Do you really think it merits cutting and pasting in its entirety?.

      • Robert:
        “Christos – it’s a children’s educational website I linked to correct some elementary misinformation. Do you really think it merits cutting and pasting in its entirety?.”

        Let’s focus on a fragment now:

        “For example, a red shirt looks red because the dye molecules in the fabric have absorbed the wavelengths of light from the violet/blue end of the spectrum. Red light is the only light that is reflected from the shirt. If only blue light is shone onto a red shirt, the shirt would appear black, because the blue would be absorbed and there would be no red light to be reflected.

        White objects appear white because they reflect all colours. Black objects absorb all colours so no light is reflected.”

        “Red light is the only light that is reflected from the shirt. If only blue light is shone onto a red shirt, the shirt would appear black, because the blue would be absorbed and there would be no red light to be reflected.”

        It is all about diffuse reflection only.

        There is always the specular reflection which we do not see.

        I did that experiment one night. I threw a white light from a torch on the black paper on the table.
        The paper had not any diffuse reflection whatsoever.
        On the opposite of me wall there was the white light from the black paper the specular reflection.

        You can repeat this experiment, Robert. Everyone can repeat it. You will be pleasantly surprised.
        From the black paper there is a specular white light reflection.

        So happens with smooth planet surface specular reflection.
        The white snow and dark oceanic waters specular reflection goes to space.

        http://www.cristos-vournas.com

      • What matters for climate is what proportion of incoming energy is bounced back to space.


        https://micro.magnet.fsu.edu/primer/java/reflection/specular/

    • Alan,
      No need to use a board to block sunlight, just wait until dark. On a moonless night, zero reflected solar from the snow. Compare that to a sunny afternoon, where there’s so much you need to squint.

      Virtually no change in output??

      • Bob – why hasn’t anyone done this basic experiment? You’re right that photons get absorbed by a surface and light photons are emitted, some of which are in the infra red. It’s not simple physics as most climate scientists and journalists like to think it is.

        Why isn’t this very simple, yet very important experiment not on YouTube?

        Why doesn’t a top climate scientist perform this simple test whilst they’re on a skiing holiday and have a friend video it at the same time? It’s not difficult.

        I’m convinced the amount of the sun’s energy (W/m(sq)) reflected is less than 50% of the incoming. Just like manmade CO2 emissions are less than 50% cause of climate change, according to Dr. Judith Curry.

      • Beyond penguins and polar bears – it is elementary physics. White is white because it reflects visible frequencies. On average some 30% of the sun’s energy is reflected back to space.


        https://beyondpenguins.ehe.osu.edu/issue/energy-and-the-polar-environment/solar-energy-albedo-and-the-polar-regions

      • Alan,
        Why no experiment?

        What are you thinking we could learn from the experiment you described?

        A) With no board, the snow would absorb some of the sun’s light, and reflect or scatter the rest.

        B) With the board, the snow would absorb some of the sun’s light (this time from diffused or reflected), and reflect or scatter the rest.

        The snow’s albedo would remain unknown in both a and b.

      • The white car will be cooler because it reflects more light. The black car will be warmer and emit more IR.

        Optics has been a discipline of classical physics since the 16th century.

      • Bob, if it ever gets cold enough to snow again in the South East UK, I’ll do the experiment myself. I’ll even order the thermal heat gun before hand, just in case.

        Watch this space.

      • White snow and ice reflect light – dark oceans absorb heat. It is difficult to imagine anyone not getting it.

        He might just open his eyes and see the experiment all around us. For instance.

        “Cool pavements can be made from traditional paving materials, such as cement concrete. New cement concrete has a solar reflectance (SR) of 30–50%. There are also novel cool-colored coatings for asphalt concrete pavements that reflect about 50% of sunlight.”

      • Robert – watch and *listen* to the Richard Feynman lecture. Experiment is crucial. It doesn’t matter about ‘consensus’ or *who* states what reality is, it must be tested for. “If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it is *wrong*”.

        0:40

      • I of course never claim a lowest common denominator consensus. Only knowledge counts. And I am quite sure Feynman understood elementary classical optics. Newton’s Optics was published in 1604 and was a foundation work in experimental physics for most of that century.

        This result is so obvious – the experiment has been replicated so often that we take it for granted. It is not consensus it is common sense that seems to be in short supply with some. As I said – I cannot believe anyone can be so dense as to not understand. The alternative is that he is playing games for which my patience is in short supply.

        We are well past wanting to play with bits of timber and an IR detector – Even if I could discern what the proposed ‘experimental apparatus’ what intended to measure. Thermal radiation is not the point. Thermal radiation is a property of bodies with a temperature above absolute zero. The point is the difference in absorption of light on a dark surface compared to reflection – this is not blackbody emissions – from a white one.

      • Alan

        “Albedo is a measure of reflectivity. It is the ratio of the solar radiation (short wave radiation) reflected by a surface to the total incoming solar radiation. Albedo can either be expressed in a ratio (dimensionless number) or as a percentage. The higher the value, the more energy is reflected back to the source. Complete reflection is 1 or 100%, and complete absorption is 0.”

        Click to access Worksheets%20%28Module%201%29.pdf

        ————-

        Your ‘experiment’ first measures the light reflected by a patch of snow being shaded from the sun by a board.

        Then it measures the light reflected with the board removed (snow is in full sunlight).

        But to find albedo, you also need to measure the incoming solar, right?

      • Whoops, I only meant to show the URL.

    • I feel embarrassed for you Alan L. You really need to read this and stop talking. You are just making yourself look worse and worse.

      http://www.differencebetween.net/science/difference-between-additive-colors-and-subtractive-colors

  91. It is imperative Trump/GOP supporters support the recounts and lawsuits. Ignore the Yellow Stream Media – they are irrelevant. The GOP literally has thousands of witnesses who are signing affidavits. These first-hand witness accounts along with other evidence will be used to file around 10 lawsuits, a few of which will end up in the Supreme Court. If you think this election can’t go to Trump, you are fooling yourself. Send money help the GOP effort! Ignore the naysayers and Keep the faith!!

  92. Here’s what I think I said:
    It’s going to be epic.
    These are going to be the best two years of my life.
    Episode 1181 Scott Adams: Why President Trump Still Has the Advantage. Crazy, Right? Maybe not.
    Fox News. The Senate (75% chance), Edward Snowden. China. Antifa. BLM. North Korea. Putin.
    Trump, he’d be fine. He will not be there. You’ve got your champion. He’ll be begging off of the job within a year. Then we’ll have a historic moment. And all those above things too. Biden will not leave on Marine 1 or make the peace sign. It will be like the Pope retiring.

    • Listen up. Here’s his argument:
      They’re segmenting the voting records by time. They can see blocks of votes coming in after midnight. Those are heavy for Biden in certain precincts. Most of the precincts have normal distributions. But some stand out as being flooded at the end with these blocks of Biden votes. It sounds like this is what auditors do. I took a bunch of those classes as it’s part of a CPA certrifiaction but I never did any audits. Most precincts look normal, but some stand out. And when you get a bunch of them doing this, draw your conclusions. Auditors use errors bars. Some form of those. What are the odds, that was normal?
      Will anybody do this? Bannon would. Don’t you think? We should do the audits. But the Democrats don’t want to do them. And they will now argue against them.
      Figure out why Clinton didn’t challenge in 2016? Why no audits were done? Dignity and class are not the answers.
      If this does happen, it will take somone like Trump to do it. So, in order to audit our election results, it takes someone like Trump. We are like a third world country in that respect. It’s a great day for democracy.
      People are unofficially doing the audits. The interwebs right? Liberal professors could do them right? Or is this stuff locked up?
      That’s the argument.
      Is it too far out?

  93. It just struck me that if things are found to be too screwed up the Court can order a new election, in a state or nationally. They would do that rather than picking a winner. They greatly prefer procedural solutions to substantive ones. Remanding regulations for example.

  94. Auditing Denizens might wish to look into that one:

    A San Fernando Valley man was arrested today on federal charges alleging he and his business partner fraudulently obtained more than $1.95 million in Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans for their companies by submitting fake tax documents and false employee information, and then transferred hundreds of thousands of dollars of the funds into their personal bank accounts.

    https://www.oversight.gov/investigative-press-releases/northridge-man-arrested-charges-business-partner-and-he-fraudulently

  95. “stupid comments make both of you, ESF & VTG, look stupid”

    Chill David. Go see a movie. Maybe take a big hitter along with you.

    Trump lost. Prevaricating over that really does make you look stupid.

  96. Trump should be careful lest the other ten unsuccessful Presidential candidates lawyer up to demand recounts.

    Young Philadelphia lawyers are raring to represent the broad if somewhat shallow political mainstream encompassed by the Prohibitionist, Socialist Workers, and Boiling Frog parties :

    https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2020/11/green-candidate-overtakes-orange-man-in.html

  97. Well, that’s interesting.

    There’s a story in the WSJ that says:

    Starting early Wednesday, the campaign and the Republican National Committee have been sending dozens of daily text messages and emails saying they need financial support to challenge voting procedures.

    “We must PROTECT the Election!” says one campaign text Friday signed by Mr. Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr. “My father’s calling on YOU to help bolster our critical Election Defense Fund.”

    Clicking through to the donation page, potential givers can review a disclaimer that 50% of any contribution will be used for general election campaign debt retirement and 50% for the campaign’s recount account.

    Other Trump fundraising pitches in recent days ask for help to “protect the integrity of this election” but lead to a donation page for Mr. Trump’s “Make America Great Again” committee. The fine print on those solicitations says 60% of a contribution helps the campaign retire debt and 40% goes to the Republican National Committee.

    https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump-biden-election-day-2020/card/zU0rMlE7ltxzuW4lIwai

    But if one looks at teh Donald’s donation page, we can read:

    5% of each contribution to DJTP, to be designated toward 2020 general election debt retirement until such debt is retired, up to a maximum of $2,800 ($5,000); 95% of each contribution to the RNC’s Operating account, up to a maximum of $35,500 ($15,000); and any additional funds will go to the RNC for deposit in the RNC’s Legal Proceedings account or Headquarters account, up to a maximum of $213,000 ($90,000).

    https://donate.donaldjtrump.com/lets-keep-fighting

    Not sure how 2,8K is 50% of 5K. But here’s what’s funny. If we look at the same page in the archives, we can read instead:

    75% of each contribution to DJTP, to be designated toward either its 2020 primary (which shall be the default) or 2020 general election account, up to a maximum of $2,800 ($5,000) per account. 25% of each contribution to the RNC’s Operating account, up to a maximum of $35,500 ($15,000).

    https://archive.vn/Fh4Q4#selection-1639.0-1639.287

    Someone seems to have edited a “7” somewhere along the pipeline of cover ups.

    Go Team!

    • Willard:
      Sage of stuff and some other good qualities.
      I follow you on twitter but I haven’t quite figured it out. I get emails from twitter and ignore them. At some point I think it was on twitter, you had a Trump icon, with the bad hair. You know what I mean. Can you explain that or do I just make up my own explanation because afterall, I am a Trump supporter.
      Answer clearly if you can: Who had the most money in 2016 and 2020? Was it Trump or his opponents? I have always thought of the as a blue collar guy like Biden who used to mine coal and went to a Black college because hey, Come on man.
      Anyways, what in God’s name has happened to your party? Do you take responsibility for that? You’ve got crying young adult as your voters? Did Rocky cry? You had something with Kennedy and Obama. Where did it go wrong? You and Biden protested the Viet Nam War right? You said don’t trust anyone over thirty. Now you are the establishment and you’ll show a Trump bad hair icon to prove it. Because bad hair was what you and Biden had when you were hippies. And the establishment was making fun of you people.
      Here’s my request. Biden with the aviator’s glasses. That’s your new icon. Nice contrast. I am sure you could justify it.

      • Ragnaar, You sound like a guy who believed Trump when he said if Biden was elected the market would collapse and you bet the farm going short the market. But don’t worry you can make it all back by dumping everything you have left and go long FF stocks. My favorites are two of the largest environmental gangsters Peabody Coal (BTU) and Transocean Deep Water Drilling (RIG). You can thank me later.

      • jacksmith4tx:
        Thank you for being concerned. Ragnaar’s investing tips: Some time before Trump was elected I had stopped buying total stock market index funds and anything risky. I didn’t sell any either. I have new retirement money going in each year. I switched to short term bonds with my new money. So I haven’t sold any stock index funds and made a lot a money. But less than being fully in stocks. Traditional investment theory is: Domestic and International Stocks and Bonds. Buy and hold. I do that. I use Vanguard as they are almost the lowest cost company. They are undercut is limited specific areas. I never shorted a thing. I have clients who try to do things like. I feel sorry for 100% of them. I do not qualify that statement. 100% of them failed. During President Obama’s term, I made a lot of money in appreciation. But there’s end point bias. Look the beginning of his term and the S & P 500. Now, never play with more than 5% of your money. When gasoline was $1.60 a gallon, I bought into Vanguard’s energy fund, with some of my new short term money above. At first that worked as the price of gasoline went up. I am currently at total return of about negative 7% on that specific energy fund buy. But I am confident. And I plan to keep investing in fossil fuel companies even though they are confused as to what they’re going to do. The Democrats will protect my money. They are the party of money. And coal miners like Biden. As far as Trump’s prediction. I can see it. But as I say, the money knows. So far he’s wrong. And I am fortunate. I live in the greatest corrupt county that has ever been.

      • You seem a bit calmer and that’s a good sign. I’m not much of a stock picker so I stuck with owning realestate.
        When you say ‘The Democrats will protect my money.’ that comes with the qualifier that the US dollar keeps is place as the reserve currency. Nothing last forever. Bitcoin is universal ya know.

      • jack:
        I am going to say the Federal government is not going to run out of money nor devalue the currencty. We are the U.S. and our money has reflected that for 40 years. We are the currency of first and last resort. It still could happen. But I’ve never been anything like a gold bug. If the currency goes to crap, it’s time to buy ammo. I am not buying ammo. I don’t in a rural area.

      • I don’t LIVE in a rural area.

  98. https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/11/wait_just_a_minute_some_very_good_news_may_be_coming.html

    Start with Pennsylvania. Biden, as of this writing, is at 290 electoral votes. Pennsylvania is 20.

    I read the Justice Alito opinion, and it is pretty clear that he wants the after election night at 8:00 P.M. votes separated for a reason. Biden is going to lose at the Supreme Court, and they know it. Four justices already said the Pennsylvania Supreme Court cannot adjust voting rules. A new arrival, Justice Barrett, says she is there to apply the rules in the Constitution. OK, wanna bet she does?

    ————————–
    There’s more.
    With the American Thinker, I hope we’ve ruled out conspiracy flailing responses. Adams is pointing this out.
    Trump is a bull. And he’s got some people with him. Biden couldn’t do this. He’d take a nap and have young people do it for him after being threatened for that corruption stuff. This is epic.

  99. Trump the zombie President. He cannot be killed. Even when he’s dead, he’ll haunt your dreams. And be dancing to the Village People:

    • So the Village People have TDS. Trump drives everyone nuts. Why would they be any different? What’s it called? They have no skin in the game. Anyone can make fun of Trump. All you sycophants risk nothing by doing so. It’s boring. It’s stupid. It’s like saying I believe in apple pie. Trump has stolen their song from them. He owns it. They proved it.

  100. Our lefty Denizens are all about unity, fairness, and the high road; until someone like Scott Adams says things they don’t like. Then they attack the person instead of the concepts.

  101. AOC is threatening to quit the party. This is awesome. I hasn’t even been a week. Quick, who can we replace Biden and Harris with? Biden should step down, Harris should pick someone competent like J to replace as V.P. Then Harris should step down.
    You’ve heard of the wheels falling off.
    This junker can’t even get to the starting line.

    • Ragnaar –

      Ride it for what it’s worth. Climb out from under your bed and put China in the back burner for a couple of weeks. Sit back and watch genius Scott Adams. He’s very convincing.

      I’m sure you’ll enjoy this quite a bit also. No stimulus. Golf and virus out of control instead. Right up your ally.

      -snip-

      President Trump plans to brandish obituaries of people who supposedly voted but are dead — plus hold campaign-style rallies — in an effort to prolong his fight against apparent insurmountable election results, four Trump advisers told me during a conference call this afternoon.

      What we’re hearing: Obits for those who cast ballots are part of the “specific pieces of evidence” aimed at bolstering the Trump team’s so-far unsupported claims of widespread voter fraud and corruption that they say led to Joe Biden’s victory.

      Fueling the effort is the expected completion of vote counting this week, allowing Republicans to file for more recounts.
      What’s next: Team Trump is ready to announce specific recount teams in key states, and it plans to hold a series of Trump rallies focused on the litigation

      https://www.axios.com/trump-legal-strategy-fraud-45ab43eb-c5bd-4710-a227-0dceacebb511.html

      • > The keyboard warriors saved the world from Trump. No. They saved the D.C. establishment

        You’ve been sold a bill of goods. By Scott Adams and by Trump. Trump is every bit as much a part of the Washington establishment as anyone else – if not more. Lobbyists. Corporate hacks. Political operators. Crony capitalism. It’s a con. I can’t see how a libertarian could eat up that garbage.

      • Even after living in DC for almost 4 years, it would be obvious to a man blind in one eye and can’t see out the other that Trump is STILL an outsider. Even the repugnant RINOS hate him, not to mention 90% of those in the Federal agencies and of course the Dimocruks.

      • Right. Crony capitalism. Corporate welfare. Lobbyists (despite promises otherwise). Crooks in his administration, self-dealing. Glad-handing with all the other republican politicians except two or three. But yeah, he’s draining the swamp. He’s a politician who’s just out for the American people.

        They throw out the garbage. You lap it up. Remarkable. How gullible can you get?

      • Right. Crony capitalism. Corporate welfare. Lobbyists (despite promises otherwise). Cr**ks in his administration, self-dealing. Glad-handing with all the other republican politicians except two or three. But yeah, he’s draining the swamp. He’s a politician who’s just out for the American people.

        They throw out the garbage. You lap it up. Remarkable. How gullible can you get?

      • You are a Bernie-Bro, aren’t you Josh?

    • AOC says she may quit politics, not the D party.

      • Compare what she may do to what Trump does. Like a kid who wants to grow up to be an influencer. Those are some good voters you got there. She’s a Twitter personality. That’s your party.
        You people should win more often so I can have more fun.

      • Somewhat self-contradictory – even as she rejects Republican talking points because they harm the Party, she echoes Republican talking points (e.g., when she says that “the party” abandons the base after the elections) :

        But in end she’s right about a lot of things. She has something to offer the party and the Party will be strengthened through unity. They need to get behind closed doors and work it out through compromise. If they present a unified front in something like infrastructure, for example, they can either achieve real progress or expose McConnell et al. in their naked and cynical politically expedient obstructionism.

      • J:
        Ben Shapiro with his narrative is tearing the Democratic Party apart?
        Closed doors. I don’t like that. I think that’s the problem.
        McConnell. There has to be source for my unhappiness.
        AOC has something. Pelosi wants to fight her and her gift, just like she fought what Trump has. In some universe AOC and Trump took Pelosi out. But AOC doesn’t have the juice in this one to do that. In two years she will. Whatever.
        I heard a good rant. The keyboard warriors saved the world from Trump. No. They saved the D.C. establishment.

    • quiting means she is begging people to ask her to stay.
      jesus

  102. Everett F Sargent

    Here we go again …
    I’ve been cancelled.

    Do the L!

  103. Everett F Sargent

    Kool & The Gang – Celebration

    There’s a party goin’ on right here
    A celebration to last throughout the years
    So bring your good times, and your laughter too
    We gonna celebrate your party with you
    Come on now
    Celebration
    Let’s all celebrate and have a good time
    Celebration
    We gonna celebrate and have a good time
    It’s time to come together
    It’s up to you, what’s your pleasure
    Everyone around the world
    Come on!

    Do the L!

  104. Here is a claim of “anomalies”.

    https://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?D=11/08/2020&SO=&HC=6&ID=586911

    I am suspecting that analyses of the diverse kinds of “statistical anomalies” will show: (a) that the anomalies may have switched the states from Trump Win to Biden Win; and (b) that the “anomalies” can’t be shown to have arisen from fraud. That was roughly the case in Ohio in 2004 where anomalies seemed to show fraud in support of Bush, but the most likely explanation was under-sampling of Republican voters in Republican majority districts.

    I would like to see recounts to be sure, but I doubt anyone can come up with a reliable operational distinction between “legal” votes (which the Republicans think gave Trump the win) and “illegal” votes. The default surely is that a ballot is “legal” unless it can be shown to be “illegal” beyond a reasonable doubt (i.e. received after the deadline prescribed by law.)

    • One would like to see the ‘statistical analysis’ of ‘statistical anomalies’ before taking the nuts at rantburg seriously.

      But I understand there are 8,000 odd ‘segregated’ votes in Pennsylvania that have not been included in totals as yet. Count them – don’t count them – but get on with it because the BDS – Burning Ddong-go-mong Sensation – is getting crazier by the day.

      • Robert I Ellison: One would like to see the ‘statistical analysis’ of ‘statistical anomalies’ before taking the nuts at rantburg seriously.

        Sure

        Such analyses are “out there”, as was written earlier.

      • Sure – the truth is out there. Not at rasntburg or in your comment of course.

      • Robert I Ellison: Sure – the truth is out there. Not at rasntburg or in your comment of course.

        You mean like this? The default surely is that a ballot is “legal” unless it can be shown to be “illegal” beyond a reasonable doubt (i.e. received after the deadline prescribed by law.)

        Do you have some evidence that Rantburg is always wrong, or even wrong more often than the NYTimes?

      • 8000 ‘segregated’ votes valid according to Pennsylvania law. So what. And rantburg can’t be wrong because all they have is one paragraph conspiracy theories based on wild supposition. No hard facts – just like you.

        There is a difference between reputable sources and those that are not. I linked Forbes and the Financial Times – along with their media bias/fact check scores.

      • here is another imperfect source, worthy of some inspection.

        https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/complete-list-suspected-fraud-issues-2020-election-sorted-state-recommended-actions-address/

        The top graph, re Arizona, is compatible with the idea that later votes had more support for Biden than earlier votes (as expected) but were delivered in a bundle — i.e. not fraudulent.

      • It is true that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” – and there are extraordinary claims being made.

      • Robert I Ellison: and there are extraordinary claims being made.

        What extraordinary claims are being made? All I claim is that there is enough evidence to justify rigorous recounts. like 2000 and 2004, but seemingly on a larger scale.

        As I wrote: I am suspecting that analyses of the diverse kinds of “statistical anomalies” will show: (a) that the anomalies may have switched the states from Trump Win to Biden Win;

        “suspecting” and “may”

      • You ignore the extraordinary claims of your disreputable sources – and pretend to weigh them up objectively. Then you take my words out of their context and pretend that I misspoke. Yeah – not playing.

      • Matthew R Marler

        Robert I Ellison: You ignore the extraordinary claims of your disreputable sources

        Again I ask, which claims are extraordinary?

        That in Georgia Biden got thousands more votes than the Dem candidates for Senate combined, whereas Trump got slightly more votes than the Republican candidates for Senate combined?

        Are there thousand more votes for Biden with no down-ballot votes than there are votes for Trump with no down-ballot votes?

        That the anomalies occurred only in states with close races? Or that they only occurred in states where Trump had small leads by Tuesday nights?

        Those claims are not extraordinary, and they can be quickly checked via open recounts. Whether they are probative of fraud is another question; and whether any one can be legitimately disqualified is yet another question.

      • Wild speculation masquerading as fact. Ask as many questions as you like and we will see where the fallout lands.

  105. Everett F Sargent

    Rumor has it. that Small Hands fully expects to lead a national uprising in the coming weeks and overthrow the Merican goobermint. Time to buckle up buckaroos.

    • In the United States, we sue each other. It will be Okay. Look at the markets. Look at your Constitution pre-court packing. It’s in the powerful’s interests to keep the grifts going. At the same time, they took on Trump. Don’t start crying now. Put on your big boy pants.

      • Everett F Sargent

        Like I said earlier, calm down. You have been running around. these past two days. as if your own head was cut off.

      • It was your team that said he wouldn’t leave. It was your team that said, He’s not my President. Something about Ukraine. Colluding in plain sight. A puppet of Putin. I am surprised you didn’t wring your hands all the way off. And then this trainwreck of an election with an old man crashing his car into a nursing home, getting out and saying, we won. And then your team starts stabbing each other in the back. I am happy.

  106. In Australia, “global warming is a religion that is being pushed on our children.” Greta Thunberg is on the cover of a textbook for legal studies (!):

  107. There’s been a few stories in the UK press that president Joe Biden isn’t too keen on the English and is proud of his Irish heritage. I’m 50% Irish, 39% English & 11% Scandinavian btw, so it’s bit more complicated than the ‘potato famine fiasco’ that occured long ago.

    The English aren’t too keen on some US traits:

  108. It occurred to me, the Democrats are my team. I think the most important thing to me is my money and the two real estate properties I own. Don’t tell my family that though. They don’t have a mandate to get a whole lot of my money and they did stop the socialists for awhile anyways. They can and do screw up a lot of people’s lives but not mine. They don’t inspire change. They’re old like me. I don’t think they’re going to change much. My business and home is not going to get looted. They’re like my dog. Don’t eat a half a container of rolled oats I left on the counter. Thank God she threw it up after about 24 hours. The Democrats ate the rolled oats and threw it up. That’s what dogs do. I cleaned up, wasn’t really messy. The dogs name is Alpha by the way. I’m good.

    • You do good bits, Ragnaar.

      Wait. Did you just compare yourself to your dog?

      • You’re too kind. I am not owning the Democrats throwing up. I must have said, Don’t do that. Someone has to clean up after the dog. The last four years have been a dog riot of throwing up. Why did we get the dog in the first place? She wags her tail. And likes to play. You think I could be the next Scott Adams? Nope.

      • I thought you were a Democrat, Ragnaar, which means you’re throwing up.

        Please advise.

      • For my money, I am a Democrat. For my civil liberties, I am MAGA. I like me some deer stands. For the dog throwing up I am an innocent bystander anarchist. I’ve been against the use of force for at least 30 years, so that still goes. So don’t be scared about the anarchy. The Democrats have that one covered. An anarchist that rejects both parties. Trump wasn’t a Republican. He just used them. I am not a Republican, but they do do some good things. But the important thing is can I make your list as an anarchist? I reject both sides of the global warming debate. I am glad your back. Kind of a reverse rats leaving a sinking ship.

  109. He laughs at fear, afraid of nothing.
    He does not shy away from the sword.
    He cannot stand still when the trumpet sounds.

    Don’t watch Victor Davis Hanson’s and Ben Shapiro’s recent video.

    I guess Biden looked shaky when he spoke recently. Is that a conspiracy?

    • Afraid of nothing?
      “Declassify Everything!” – Donald Trump Jr

      Yea that’s the ticket, threaten to publish national security classified info..

      I hope they do it if they will dump EVERYTHING unredacted. CIA,FBI,DOJ. Burn it all down.
      Are you with me Ragnaar?

      • I am with Edward Snowden. Are you? Our intelligence agencies do things like get our young people killed in stupid wars or damaged for life. You can go with the corrupt D.C. establishment. We’re still good.

      • jack:
        I was surprised at the source. I heard it a long time ago. And it stuck with me.
        Rather than apply the above to some guy, consider that the concept scales. What would you expect of yourself and your fellow man? While MN is the middle of a bad second Covid wave, I am looking for inspirational messages.

      • Snowden didn’t release internal correspondence with the names of the people who were controlling those software tools. That could have led to actual changes to the law and the people to run the operations.

        As to declassifying secret government documents HELL YES. Everything!
        Everybody need to go ‘Transparent’ or ‘Clear’ as we say on the net..

      • Trump should meet with Snowden. Our intelligence agencies seem bleeped up.

    • > Is that a conspiracy?

      Could also be manipulative behavior verging on Machiavellianism.

      Lots of hypnotical theories.

  110. Judith was right to call Eta “a monster”, it’s due to track south west into the Gulf, grow into a Cat1 Hurricane, then turn almost 180° and head towards the north gulf coast of Florida as another tropical storm event. How normal is this relative to hurricanes in the recent past?

  111. Alright, that was fun.

    Take care of yourselves:

    • My take, but hoping like hell I’m wrong…. Trump knows he lost in a fair election, but will use all of the powers at his disposal to remain in office.

      This is how a democracies end, folks.
      Hat tip to his legion of complicit, and/or gullible supporters.

      • What name one power he will use. An unfair power.

      • Ragnaar
        “What name one power he will use. An unfair power.”

        Any power used to remain in office, given the courts upholding the election result, would be an abuse of that power. Biden has insisted the Secret Service would usher him out of the White House on January 20 if he refused to step down. Really?

        The Director of the Secret Service, James Murray, was appointed by Trump and serves at his pleasure. Murray reports to the Secretary of Homeland Security, a position also appointed by the president.

        Same goes for the Director of the FBI, CIA, and NSA – the chain of command leads to POTUS. Not to mention he is the Commander-in-Chief of the most power military in the world.

        All of the above branches of government, America’s muscle, could conceivably be in his pocket.
        Separation of power? Not nearly enough.

      • Don’t listen to Biden unless you know he’s sticking to his script. Electoral College then. Have we talked about that? I don’t think your answer is as specific as I’d like.

      • Ragnaar
        My prediction is that win or lose, Trump will not step down. Based on the answer to this simple question,

        “What would King Joffrey do?”

  112. date isolated increase % total tests
    11/3/2020 77,620 1,589 2.1 4,309,919
    11/4/2020 101,775 24,155 31.1 1,285,725
    11/5/2020 109,775 8,000 7.6 1,484,952
    11/6/2020 123,590 13,815 12.6 1,574,009
    11/7/2020 114,689 -8,901 -7.2 1,435,807
    11/8/2020 97,257 -17,432 -15.1 879,562
    97,257 is 11.o% of total tests.
    Ms. Curry has no idea of what we have been doing on her biog. If she will go to the CDC covid-19 chart she will see that the total positive tests is taking a drastic drop tonight. After 6:00 PM tonight I will update here. To the American People please do not reply here.

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/3/2020 77,620 1,589 2.1 4,309,919
      11/4/2020 101,775 24,155 31.1 1,285,725
      11/5/2020 109,775 8,000 7.6 1,484,952
      11/6/2020 123,590 13,815 12.6 1,574,009
      11/7/2020 114,689 -8,901 -7.2 1,435,807
      11/8/2020 97,257 -17,432 -15.1 879,562
      11/9/2020 116,747 19,490 20 1,722,119
      116,747 is 6.8% of total tests. Yesterday was 11.0%
      1.7 million tests is the highest ever. Those contact tracers and testers and testers are doing a fantastic job.

      • Robert,
        All else being equal, with more testing you would expect a lower positively rate, with less testing you would expect a higher positivity rate. This is because the testing is not random, but biased towards those who are infected and noticing COVID symptoms. Either way, their is a lot of uncertainty regarding the true extent of the problem.

        So what information have we gained from the numbers you posted?

      • Keep watching.

      • date isolated increase % total tests
        11/3/2020 77,620 1,589 2.1 4,309,919
        11/4/2020 101,775 24,155 31.1 1,285,725
        11/5/2020 109,775 8,000 7.6 1,484,952
        11/6/2020 123,590 13,815 12.6 1,574,009
        11/7/2020 114,689 -8,901 -7.2 1,435,807
        11/8/2020 97,257 -17,432 -15.1 879,562
        11/9/2020 116,747 19,490 20 1,722,119
        11/10/2020 130,495 13,746 11.8 1,284,479
        130,495 is 10.2% of total tests. Yesterday it was 6.8% Total tests seems low. We will see tomorrow.

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/3/2020 77,620 1,589 2.1 4,309,919
      11/4/2020 101,775 24,155 31.1 1,285,725
      11/5/2020 109,775 8,000 7.6 1,484,952
      11/6/2020 123,590 13,815 12.6 1,574,009
      11/7/2020 114,689 -8,901 -7.2 1,435,807
      11/8/2020 97,257 -17,432 -15.1 879,562
      11/9/2020 116,747 19,490 20 1,722,119
      11/10/2020 130,495 13,746 11.8 1,284,479
      11/11/2020 132,374 1,879 1.4 1,357,849
      132,374 is 9.7% of total tests.
      On 11/9/2020 total positive was 6.8% of total tests
      On 11/10/2020 6.8% would have been 1,919,044 total tests.
      On 11/11/2020 6.8% would have been 1,946,676 total tests.
      I believe they are lowering the total tests to keep a high %.

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/3/2020 77,620 1,589 2.1 4,309,919
      11/4/2020 101,775 24,155 31.1 1,285,725
      11/5/2020 109,775 8,000 7.6 1,484,952
      11/6/2020 123,590 13,815 12.6 1,574,009
      11/7/2020 114,689 -8,901 -7.2 1,435,807
      11/8/2020 97,257 -17,432 -15.1 879,562
      11/9/2020 116,747 19,490 20 1,722,119
      11/10/2020 130,495 13,746 11.8 1,284,479
      11/11/2020 132,374 1,879 1.4 1,357,849
      11/12/2020 150,974 18,600 14 1,389,301
      150,974 is 10.8 of total tests.
      6 more days to see if we succeeded.

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/3/2020 77,620 1,589 2.1 4,309,919
      11/4/2020 101,775 24,155 31.1 1,285,725
      11/5/2020 109,775 8,000 7.6 1,484,952
      11/6/2020 123,590 13,815 12.6 1,574,009
      11/7/2020 114,689 -8,901 -7.2 1,435,807
      11/8/2020 97,257 -17,432 -15.1 879,562
      11/9/2020 116,747 19,490 20 1,722,119
      11/10/2020 130,495 13,746 11.8 1,284,479
      11/11/2020 132,374 1,879 1.4 1,357,849
      11/12/2020 150,974 18,600 14 1,389,301
      11/13/2020 177,207 26,233 17.4 1,778,616
      177,207 is 10% of total tests.
      Driving home to Florida starting tomorrow Should arrive late Monday. Will try to keep it up. If I do not I will Tuesday.
      18th is 5 days away..

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/3/2020 77,620 1,589 2.1 4,309,919
      11/4/2020 101,775 24,155 31.1 1,285,725
      11/5/2020 109,775 8,000 7.6 1,484,952
      11/6/2020 123,590 13,815 12.6 1,574,009
      11/7/2020 114,689 -8,901 -7.2 1,435,807
      11/8/2020 97,257 -17,432 -15.1 879,562
      11/9/2020 116,747 19,490 20 1,722,119
      11/10/2020 130,495 13,746 11.8 1,284,479
      11/11/2020 132,374 1,879 1.4 1,357,849
      11/12/2020 150,974 18,600 14 1,389,301
      11/13/2020 177,207 26,233 17.4 1,778,616
      11/14/2020 153,594 -24,613 -13.3 1,732,251
      153,594 is 8.9% of total tests. Yesterday it was 10%
      Tomorrow is another day.

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/3/2020 77,620 1,589 2.1 4,309,919
      11/4/2020 101,775 24,155 31.1 1,285,725
      11/5/2020 109,775 8,000 7.6 1,484,952
      11/6/2020 123,590 13,815 12.6 1,574,009
      11/7/2020 114,689 -8,901 -7.2 1,435,807
      11/8/2020 97,257 -17,432 -15.1 879,562
      11/9/2020 116,747 19,490 20 1,722,119
      11/10/2020 130,495 13,746 11.8 1,284,479
      11/11/2020 132,374 1,879 1.4 1,357,849
      11/12/2020 150,974 18,600 14 1,389,301
      11/13/2020 177,207 26,233 17.4 1,778,616
      11/14/2020 153,594 -24,613 -13.3 1,732,251
      11/15/2020 128,704 -24,894 -16.2 1,300,105
      128,704 is 9.9% of total tests.
      If it is doing this now, what is it going to do the 18th? The contact tracers may be having less contacts to trace.
      Tomorrow is another day.

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/3/2020 77,620 1,589 2.1 4,309,919
      11/4/2020 101,775 24,155 31.1 1,285,725
      11/5/2020 109,775 8,000 7.6 1,484,952
      11/6/2020 123,590 13,815 12.6 1,574,009
      11/7/2020 114,689 -8,901 -7.2 1,435,807
      11/8/2020 97,257 -17,432 -15.1 879,562
      11/9/2020 116,747 19,490 20 1,722,119
      11/10/2020 130,495 13,746 11.8 1,284,479
      11/11/2020 132,374 1,879 1.4 1,357,849
      11/12/2020 150,974 18,600 14 1,389,301
      11/13/2020 177,207 26,233 17.4 1,778,616
      11/14/2020 153,594 -24,613 -13.3 1,732,251
      11/15/2020 128,704 -24,894 -16.2 1,300,9.9
      11/16/2020 149,018 20,314 15.8 1,952,824
      149,918 is 7.6% of total tests.
      Look at the number of tests.
      !!!!!WOWW!!!!!
      2 more days.

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/3/2020 77,620 1,589 2.1 4,309,919
      11/4/2020 101,775 24,155 31.1 1,285,725
      11/5/2020 109,775 8,000 7.6 1,484,952
      11/6/2020 123,590 13,815 12.6 1,574,009
      11/7/2020 114,689 -8,901 -7.2 1,435,807
      11/8/2020 97,257 -17,432 -15.1 879,562
      11/9/2020 116,747 19,490 20 1,722,119
      11/10/2020 130,495 13,746 11.8 1,284,479
      11/11/2020 132,374 1,879 1.4 1,357,849
      11/12/2020 150,974 18,600 14 1,389,301
      11/13/2020 177,207 26,233 17.4 1,778,616
      11/14/2020 153,594 -24,613 -13.3 1,732,251
      11/15/2020 128,704 -24,894 -16.2 1,300,9.9
      11/16/2020 149,018 20,314 15.8 1,952,824
      11/17/2020 142,571 -6,147 4.1 1,512,976
      142,572 is 9.4% of total tests.
      One more day.

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/3/2020 77,620 1,589 2.1 4,309,919
      11/4/2020 101,775 24,155 31.1 1,285,725
      11/5/2020 109,775 8,000 7.6 1,484,952
      11/6/2020 123,590 13,815 12.6 1,574,009
      11/7/2020 114,689 -8,901 -7.2 1,435,807
      11/8/2020 97,257 -17,432 -15.1 879,562
      11/9/2020 116,747 19,490 20 1,722,119
      11/10/2020 130,495 13,746 11.8 1,284,479
      11/11/2020 132,374 1,879 1.4 1,357,849
      11/12/2020 150,974 18,600 14 1,389,301
      11/13/2020 177,207 26,233 17.4 1,778,616
      11/14/2020 153,594 -24,613 -13.3 1,732,251
      11/15/2020 128,704 -24,894 -16.2 1,300,9.9
      11/16/2020 149,018 20,314 15.8 1,952,824
      11/17/2020 142,571 -6,147 4.1 1,512,976
      11/18/2020 164,367 21,796 15.3 1,491,490
      164,367 is 11.o% of total tests. I said that yesterday was the day the individuals cured by the antibodies met those asked to self isolate on the 5th (101,775 individuals).
      WHAT WILL THE % BE???

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/3/2020 77,620 1,589 2.1 4,309,919
      11/4/2020 101,775 24,155 31.1 1,285,725
      11/5/2020 109,775 8,000 7.6 1,484,952
      11/6/2020 123,590 13,815 12.6 1,574,009
      11/7/2020 114,689 -8,901 -7.2 1,435,807
      11/8/2020 97,257 -17,432 -15.1 879,562
      11/9/2020 116,747 19,490 20 1,722,119
      11/10/2020 130,495 13,746 11.8 1,284,479
      11/11/2020 132,374 1,879 1.4 1,357,849
      11/12/2020 150,974 18,600 14 1,389,301
      11/13/2020 177,207 26,233 17.4 1,778,616
      11/14/2020 153,594 -24,613 -13.3 1,732,251
      11/15/2020 128,704 -24,894 -16.2 1,300,9.9
      11/16/2020 149,018 20,314 15.8 1,952,824
      11/17/2020 142,571 -6,147 -4.1 1,512,976
      11/18/2020 164,367 21,796 15.3 1,491,490
      11/19/2020 175,852 11,485 7 1,795,968
      175,852 is 9.8% of total tests. Yesterday it was 11.0%
      The right direction lust not as much as I expected.
      Tomorrow is another day.

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/3/2020 77,620 1,589 2.1 4,309,919
      11/4/2020 101,775 24,155 31.1 1,285,725
      11/5/2020 109,775 8,000 7.6 1,484,952
      11/6/2020 123,590 13,815 12.6 1,574,009
      11/7/2020 114,689 -8,901 -7.2 1,435,807
      11/8/2020 97,257 -17,432 -15.1 879,562
      11/9/2020 116,747 19,490 20 1,722,119
      11/10/2020 130,495 13,746 11.8 1,284,479
      11/11/2020 132,374 1,879 1.4 1,357,849
      11/12/2020 150,974 18,600 14 1,389,301
      11/13/2020 177,207 26,233 17.4 1,778,616
      11/14/2020 153,594 -24,613 -13.3 1,732,251
      11/15/2020 128,704 -24,894 -16.2 1,300,9.9
      11/16/2020 149,018 20,314 15.8 1,952,824
      11/17/2020 142,571 -6,147 -4.1 1,512,976
      11/18/2020 164,367 21,796 15.3 1,491,490
      11/19/2020 175,852 11,485 7 1,795,968
      11/20/2020 188,569 12,717 7.2 2,137,359
      188,560 is 8.8% of total tests.
      Look at the number of tests. They are really working above and beyond. Tomorrow is the results of 11/8. Look at what is in the bank already.

    • 11/3/2020 77,620 1,589 2.1 4,309,919
      11/4/2020 101,775 24,155 31.1 1,285,725
      11/5/2020 109,775 8,000 7.6 1,484,952
      11/6/2020 123,590 13,815 12.6 1,574,009
      11/7/2020 114,689 -8,901 -7.2 1,435,807
      11/8/2020 97,257 -17,432 -15.1 879,562
      11/9/2020 116,747 19,490 20 1,722,119
      11/10/2020 130,495 13,746 11.8 1,284,479
      11/11/2020 132,374 1,879 1.4 1,357,849
      11/12/2020 150,974 18,600 14 1,389,301
      11/13/2020 177,207 26,233 17.4 1,778,616
      11/14/2020 153,594 -24,613 -13.3 1,732,251
      11/15/2020 128,704 -24,894 -16.2 1,300,9.9
      11/16/2020 149,018 20,314 15.8 1,952,824
      11/17/2020 142,571 -6,147 -4.1 1,512,976
      11/18/2020 164,367 21,796 15.3 1,491,490
      11/19/2020 175,852 11,485 7 1,795,968
      11/20/2020 188,569 12,717 7.2 2,137,359
      11/21/2020 158,498 -30,071 -15.9 1,755,369
      158,498 is 9.0% of total tests.
      Total positive is now controlled by positive individuals removed 14 days ago plus those individuals removed by antibodies. The swamp can only control the % by altering the total test number.

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/11/2020 132,374 1,879 1.4 1,357,849
      11/12/2020 150,974 18,600 14 1,389,301
      11/13/2020 177,207 26,233 17.4 1,778,616
      11/14/2020 153,594 -24,613 -13.3 1,732,251
      11/15/2020 128,704 -24,894 -16.2 1,300,9.9
      11/16/2020 149,018 20,314 15.8 1,952,824
      11/17/2020 142,571 -6,147 -4.1 1,512,976
      11/18/2020 164,367 21,796 15.3 1,491,490
      11/19/2020 175,852 11,485 7 1,795,968
      11/20/2020 188,569 12,717 7.2 2,137,359
      11/21/2020 158,498 -30,071 -15.9 1,755,369
      11/22/2020 131,645 -26,853 -16.9 1,995,570
      131,645 is 6.6% of total tests. Looks good except that they added 366,396 to the total tests last night. The actual % is 8.1%..

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/11/2020 132,374 1,879 1.4 1,357,849
      11/12/2020 150,974 18,600 14 1,389,301
      11/13/2020 177,207 26,233 17.4 1,778,616
      11/14/2020 153,594 -24,613 -13.3 1,732,251
      11/15/2020 128,704 -24,894 -16.2 1,300,9.9
      11/16/2020 149,018 20,314 15.8 1,952,824
      11/17/2020 142,571 -6,147 -4.1 1,512,976
      11/18/2020 164,367 21,796 15.3 1,491,490
      11/19/2020 175,852 11,485 7 1,795,968
      11/20/2020 188,569 12,717 7.2 2,137,359
      11/21/2020 158,498 -30,071 -15.9 1,755,369
      11/22/2020 131,645 -26,853 -16.9 1,995,570
      11/23/2020 151,674 20,029 15.2 1,728,890
      151,674 is 8.8% of total tests. Yesterday was 8.1%

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/11/2020 132,374 1,879 1.4 1,357,849
      11/12/2020 150,974 18,600 14 1,389,301
      11/13/2020 177,207 26,233 17.4 1,778,616
      11/14/2020 153,594 -24,613 -13.3 1,732,251
      11/15/2020 128,704 -24,894 -16.2 1,300,9.9
      11/16/2020 149,018 20,314 15.8 1,952,824
      11/17/2020 142,571 -6,147 -4.1 1,512,976
      11/18/2020 164,367 21,796 15.3 1,491,490
      11/19/2020 175,852 11,485 7 1,795,968
      11/20/2020 188,569 12,717 7.2 2,137,359
      11/21/2020 158,498 -30,071 -15.9 1,755,369
      11/22/2020 131,645 -26,853 -16.9 1,995,570
      11/23/2020 151,674 20,029 15.2 1,728,890
      11/24/2020 165,506 13,832 9.1 1,739,996
      165,506 is 9.5% of total tests.
      Yesterday they added around 350,000 tests to the total count in the middle of the night. Around election day they added 3.5 million in the middle of the night. They say to get a test they have to wait 3 to 6 hours in line.
      My question is, HOW SOON WILL WE SEE THE NEXT NUMBER DUMP BE?
      Keep up the good work. They can not hide hide the actual numbers much longer.

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/20/2020 188,569 12,717 7.2 2,137,359
      11/21/2020 158,498 -30,071 -15.9 1,755,369
      11/22/2020 131,645 -26,853 -16.9 1,995,570
      11/23/2020 151,674 20,029 15.2 1,728,890
      11/24/2020 165,506 13,832 9.1 1,739,996
      11/25/2020 164,985 -521 -0.3 1,734,686
      164,985 is 9.5% of total tests.
      At 23:58 GMT the total tests was 184,137,767.
      Today’s chart said the closing tests yesterday was 184,361,815 or a total tests for today of 1,511,138. 164,985 is 10.9% of total tests.

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/20/2020 188,569 12,717 7.2 2,137,359
      11/21/2020 158,498 -30,071 -15.9 1,755,369
      11/22/2020 131,645 -26,853 -16.9 1,995,570
      11/23/2020 151,674 20,029 15.2 1,728,890
      11/24/2020 165,506 13,832 9.1 1,739,996
      11/25/2020 164,985 -521 -0.3 1,734,686
      11/26/2020 104,976 -60,009 -36.4 1,270,170
      104,976 is 8.3% of total tests.
      At 23:58 GMT yesterday total tests was 185,872,453.
      According ton the CDC at 24:00 GMT total tests was 186,108,026 that is a total tests for today of 1,034,597. That is 10.1% of total tests.
      Tomorrow is another day

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/20/2020 188,569 12,717 7.2 2,137,359
      11/21/2020 158,498 -30,071 -15.9 1,755,369
      11/22/2020 131,645 -26,853 -16.9 1,995,570
      11/23/2020 151,674 20,029 15.2 1,728,890
      11/24/2020 165,506 13,832 9.1 1,739,996
      11/25/2020 164,985 -521 -0.3 1,734,686
      11/26/2020 104,976 -60,009 -36.4 1,270,170
      11/27/2020 159,858 54,882 52.2 1,847,657
      159,858 is 8.7% of total tests. Yesterday was 8.3%.
      The beginning total tests were close to each other.

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/20/2020 188,569 12,717 7.2 2,137,359
      11/21/2020 158,498 -30,071 -15.9 1,755,369
      11/22/2020 131,645 -26,853 -16.9 1,995,570
      11/23/2020 151,674 20,029 15.2 1,728,890
      11/24/2020 165,506 13,832 9.1 1,739,996
      11/25/2020 164,985 -521 -0.3 1,734,686
      11/26/2020 104,976 -60,009 -36.4 1,270,170
      11/27/2020 159,858 54,882 52.2 1,847,657
      11/28/2020 138,092 -21,766 -13.6 1,955,269
      138,092 is 7.1% of total tests.
      Total tests at 23:58 GMT yesterday by CDC was 188,990,280.
      t0tal tests at 24:00 GMT yesterday was 1,655,815 or 8.3% of total tests.

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/20/2020 188,569 12,717 7.2 2,137,359
      11/21/2020 158,498 -30,071 -15.9 1,755,369
      11/22/2020 131,645 -26,853 -16.9 1,995,570
      11/23/2020 151,674 20,029 15.2 1,728,890
      11/24/2020 165,506 13,832 9.1 1,739,996
      11/25/2020 164,985 -521 -0.3 1,734,686
      11/26/2020 104,976 -60,009 -36.4 1,270,170
      11/27/2020 159,858 54,882 52.2 1,847,657
      11/28/2020 138,092 -21,766 -13.6 1,955,269
      11/29/2020 134,016 -4,076 -2.9 1,322,448
      134,018 is 10.1% of total tests.
      Last day of the holiday weekend. We will see what tomorrow brings.

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/20/2020 188,569 12,717 7.2 2,137,359
      11/21/2020 158,498 -30,071 -15.9 1,755,369
      11/22/2020 131,645 -26,853 -16.9 1,995,570
      11/23/2020 151,674 20,029 15.2 1,728,890
      11/24/2020 165,506 13,832 9.1 1,739,996
      11/25/2020 164,985 -521 -0.3 1,734,686
      11/26/2020 104,976 -60,009 -36.4 1,270,170
      11/27/2020 159,858 54,882 52.2 1,847,657
      11/28/2020 138,092 -21,766 -13.6 1,955,269
      11/29/2020 134,016 -4,076 -2.9 1,322,448
      11/30/2020 149,403 15,378 11.5 1,279,379
      149,403 is 11.7% of total tests.
      It appears to me that they are keeping the number of tests high, and the % is staying high, while the number of positives is gradually going down. To me this means they ae leaning their efforts towards the contact tracers where they get more bang for the buck.

    • date isolated increase % total tests
      11/20/2020 188,569 12,717 7.2 2,137,359
      11/21/2020 158,498 -30,071 -15.9 1,755,369
      11/22/2020 131,645 -26,853 -16.9 1,995,570
      11/23/2020 151,674 20,029 15.2 1,728,890
      11/24/2020 165,506 13,832 9.1 1,739,996
      11/25/2020 164,985 -521 -0.3 1,734,686
      11/26/2020 104,976 -60,009 -36.4 1,270,170
      11/27/2020 159,858 54,882 52.2 1,847,657
      11/28