COVID discussion thread V

by Judith Curry

A round up of recent interesting articles

The coronavirus pandemic is steeped in uncertainty, confusion, shifting information, and muddled messages. Here’s a guide to cutting through it all, from @edyong209  [link]

Tests in recovered patients found false positives, not reinfections [link]

New paper using Chinese data confirms lower attack rate of COVID19 for children compared to adults which in turn is still lower than the elderly. science.sciencemag.org/content/early/

Lancet: results of remdesivar trial [link]

A leaked Chinese study finds no benefit from anti-viral remdesivir in treating COVID-19 patients. Damn! reason.com/2020/04/23/lea

Fauci:  second wave of coronavirus inevitable [link]
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Second wave of deadly virus is very unlikely [link]
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Dr. Fauci backed controversial Wuhan lab with millions of U.S. dollars for risky coronavirus research [link]
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COVID-19 outcomes, from data on 16749 patients [link]
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What is the infection-fatality rate of COVID19? [link]
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We still don’t know how the coronavirus is killing us [link]
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The science of infectious aerosols [link]
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Negative study of Trump Miracle Drug actually shows it works [link]
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This team conducted the largest validation study of serological tests yet. Most of the assays they tested did poorly, but some did very good, although clearly the timing is very important. covidtestingproject.org
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COVID19 has blown apart the myth of Silicon Valley innovation [link]
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A team of 50 scientists evaluated 14 available tests for coronavirus antibodies. Only three passed muster: “Those numbers are just unacceptable.” nyti.ms/2KCNGUd
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The best hopes for a coronavirus drug [link]
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What viral evolution can teach us about the coronavirus pandemic [link]
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potential impact of various isolation, contact tracing, testing, and physical distancing measures on COVID-19, using social interaction data from over 40,000 people in the UK cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19
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Mutated strains are a possible reason why we’re seeing such divergent outcomes around the world [link]
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There’s a defined set of human behaviors that cause COVID19 to spread rapidly. But it seems to be a *narrow* set. quillette.com/2020/04/23/cov
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empirical relationships between temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, and UV across the world. There does not seem to be much if any effect of temperature on the growth rate of the epidemic. berkeleyearth.org/coronavirus-an
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What immunity to Covid-19 might actually mean [link]
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Economics and policy

For the three decades leading up to the #COVIDー19 pandemic, New York ably used its density and wealth to increase life expectancy for its most vulnerable residents, saving hundreds of thousands of lives. bit.ly/2S1BReg

To hold China accountable for dealyed COVID action, target the ‘Great Firewall’ [link]

There’s no such thing as just ‘following the science’ – advice is political [link]

The price of the coronavirus pandemic [link]

Andrew Cuomo’s coronavirus nursing home policy proves tragic [link]

Vietnam May Have the Most Effective Response to Covid-19 [link]

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation [link]

Controversial idea to speed coronavirus vaccine gains ground hill.cm/WnrvHbn

Sociology

‘There is no absolute truth’: an infectious disease expert on Covid-19, misinformation and ‘bullshit’ [link]

In public health, as in climate change, scientists who express different views on Covid-19 should be heard, not demonized statnews.com/2020/04/27/hea

As COVID-19 forces conferences online, scientists discover upsides of virtual format [link]

Science in inaction [link]

A nation on pause: coronavirus in India [link]

What the Government’s ‘guided by science’ mantra really means [link]

Let’s hear scientists with different COVID19 views, not attack them [link]

The coronavirus makes our old culture wars seem quaint [link]

The scab & the wound beneath…On painful realities in the age of the coronavirus. [link]

280 responses to “COVID discussion thread V

  1. “The coronavirus pandemic is steeped in uncertainty, confusion, shifting information, and muddled messages. ”

    A fine summary of the President’s contribution.

    • Okay wiseguy, who has provide certainty, clarity, consistent information and messaging. I’ll wait…

    • While you’re waiting, you might tryThe Economist.

      The alternative is this paragon of certainty and clear messaging:

      https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2020/04/a-commander-in-chief-who-treats-himself.html

      • aporiac1960

        Trump sometimes makes ill-considered remarks while extemporising. However, nothing he says ever approaches the pure insanity of the journalistic commentaries on what he says. Trump makes off-the-cuff remarks and journalists torture them to death, speculate on how they will be interpreted based on a model of human beings that do not exist, have never existed and could never exist except in the fevered minds of said journalists, and thus declare his comments a threat to human civilisation as we’ve know it, and probably the survival of our species, despite almost no one except those journalist paying much attention to Trumps remarks having understood that he was extemporising.

        Trump is certainly a blunderer. In contrast, most of his critics are completely out of their minds and make Trump appear calm, sober and considered in comparison. He is likely to be re-elected in 2020 because he will be voted in by the general population, who despite their faults and limitations, are calm, sober and considered compared to the commentariat who constitute his critics.

        The important thing about Trump is there is a natural human constraint on his capacity for stupidity, just as there is in the population at large. No such constraint exists when it comes to the supposed sophisticates and intellectuals who despise him, and so no matter the circumstances when attempting to expose Trump’s folly they invariably expose their own more effectively. The greatest joke is that they are so lacking in self-awareness they have no idea this is happening. The even greater joke is that they correctly throw this accusation at Trump and ridicule him as a braggart without realising they are more afflicted by this condition than he is. It’s all sublimely funny.

      • Don Monfort

        Mr. aporiac1960: “Trump sometimes makes ill-considered remarks while extemporising. However, nothing he says ever approaches the pure insanity of the journalistic commentaries on what he says.”

        You have been watching closely and you portray reality expertly. Trump’s unguarded mouth (it usually is) too often utters some very stupid words. He gives his rabid detractors plenty of ammunition and they gleefully shoot themselves in their own little feet. But his deeds are based on good instincts and thoughtful considerations. His basic motivation is to do good for the country and all it’s citizens. He didn’t need the job and contrary to left loon propaganda, he is not getting rich doing it.

        The Big Orange Fella is a winner.

      • > But his deeds are based on good instincts and thoughtful considerations. His basic motivation is to do good for the country and all it’s citizens.

        Funny.

        No doubt, TDS exists, but so does a cult mentality among his supporters.

        Trump acts in his own best interest, perhaps no different than most politicians, although in my opinion more so.

        But watching his supporters grant him the leeway they’d grant virtually no other politicians is a sight to behold.

      • The inverse of TDS = TCMS (Trump Cult Member Syndrome).

      • What’s particularly interesting is to see many people who label themselves as “skeptics” convince themselves that Trump isn’t primarily motivated by self interest, unlike any other politician in the history of the planet.

      • No doubt, TDS exists, but so does a cult mentality among his supporters.

        I see little adoration of Trump. Most see him for what he is: the least bad choice.

        There is ZERO sign of a “second wave” or massive resurgence in Italy or Spain which have started to slacken confinement rules. Spain got factories and construction back to work on 14th April. No new epidemic yet !

        What the hell is the rest of the developed world waiting for : BACK TO WORK, stop the CONFINEMENT.

      • > I see little adoration of Trump. Most see him for what he is: the least bad choice.

        Watch people Run for Cover when I talk about his consequential lying

      • > BACK TO WORK, stop the CONFINEMENT.

        Perhaps you could start a trend by volunteering at a local hospital are getting a job at a supermarket.

    • Goverment bureaucrats including Trump have done their best to make wrong statements about COVID19, and wrong predictions.

      Reminds me of what they say, and predict, about climate change.

      • Like climate change the reaction to the epidemic is a fake crisis.

        “Wear a mask in public” is the new ” Change a few light bulbs”.

  2. Curious George

    “The coronavirus pandemic is steeped in uncertainty, confusion, shifting information, and muddled messages.”

    True. What is the World Health Organization for?

  3. Epidemiology Knut Wittkowski predicts the likelihood of any appreciable second wave to be minimal.
    There is already from 10-20% herd immunity, which has been growing since that estimate, so any rebound will be only a mild rise in cases, not a spike.

    This is a very important video to counter the fake information that is being pumped out by big pharma and the mass media.

  4. “Genetic scientists had noticed that the dominant strains in different geographic regions were inherently different. Some researchers suspected the varying mortality rates could, in part, be caused by mutations but they had no direct proof.“

    One of the more interesting questions that seem to increase with each passing day. After reading the list of articles above, each one raising even more questions and the level of uncertainty about COVID19, we should all take a humble pill.

  5. > Tests in recovered patients found false positives, not reinfections

    Well, that is good news.

  6. This clears up a lot of the covid confusion and misunderstanding.

  7. Excellent choice, kid,

    The humble pill ‘s side effects seem positively benign compared to most skeptic blogosphere coronavirus remedies,

    https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2020/04/of-quinine-and-chloroquine-willis.html

    • Willis is a tough old geezer. But you wouldn’t know anything about what does people have been taking to treat malaria for many decades. Can you find out how many people have actually dies from taking chloroquine and get back to us in a week?

      The trial in Manuas was using a dose of 1.2 grams/day for ten days. I’ll help you with the math, that’s 4.6 grams every 3 days. Did anybody die? Hey, maybe they were confident that dose was OK, because that’s what they feed babies down there in malaria infested Amazonas.

      You are a pompous ____.

    • Already did, Don- had you bothered to read the post you would have learned that the current textbook Poisoning & Drug Overdosereports:

      “Chloroquine overdose is common, especially in countries where malaria is prevalent, and the mortality rate is 10–30%”

      The last American to actually die from taking chloroquine expired about ten days ago, having famously swallowedsome acquired in the form of a pet store fish tank algicide– the drug’s suppression of dna and rna synthesis has led to many off-label uses outside of pharmacy.

      • stevenreincarnated

        You get about 150 deaths from acetaminophen each year.

      • Russell, chloroquine has been used worldwide by millions and millions of people as both prophylactic and curative medication for malaria for seventy-five years now. Because of this amazingly long history, the side effects of chloroquine are understood better than for most medicines.

        Next, the blog you have linked to pretends to be the blog Watts Up With That, in order to deceive the unwary. This is underhanded.

        And you linking to that underhanded blog is the act not of just a desperate man, but a desperate man without morals or common decency.

        You gotta up your game, amigo. That kind of underhanded BS is beneath you. If you object to my scientific claims, I’m more than willing to discuss that—just quote exactly what I said, and tell us exactly why and where you think it’s wrong.

        Finally, you quote someone as saying:

        “Chloroquine overdose is common, especially in countries where malaria is prevalent, and the mortality rate is 10–30%”

        As someone who has lived and/or worked in a number of malarial countries, I can assure you that this is correct. However, they are not all accidental overdoses. A large number of them are suicides, occasioned by a) the fact that in malarial countries folks have chloroquine around the house, and b) the fact that people know that if you take a bunch you’re likely to die.

        Conclusion? Like many drugs, chloroquine can have side effects with some people, and like many drugs, chloroquine can kill you if you take too much.

        But we’ve known that for fifty years …

        My best regards, stay healthy,

        w.

      • I believe pompous ____ Rustle is the underhanded perpetrator of that underhanded and very lonely blog. He couldn’t answer my question on the actual number of folks who have died from chloroquine. I gave him a week.

        Probably a billion people have taken the drug over the decades and I will buy a car for any man woman or child, who can prove that 500 people have died from ingesting it, not counting suicides and homicides. The lady whose husband died from the aquarium stuff is being investigated for husbandcide, as we speak.

        Anyway, we ain’t using chloroquine.

      • Actually, appears the gentlemen in question may have been poisoned by his wife who is under investigation by the police. Perhaps you should blithely believing the fake news.

      • Russell Seitz

        Willis says i
        ” quote someone as saying”

        “Chloroquine overdose is common, especially in countries where malaria is prevalent, and the mortality rate is 10–30%”

        It’s not a someone Willis, its a bloody meidical school textbook!.

        “If you object to my scientific claims, I’m more than willing to discuss that—just quote exactly what I said, and tell us exactly why and where you think it’s wrong.”

        IMHO, telling adults as you ahve in WUWT to swallow nine half gram tablets- a medically probable fatal dose of a persistent drug one tablet of which has killed many an unsuicidal child in the malarial tropics is a considerable act of moral imibicility.

        I base this harsh judgement on our shared experience, sailing the New Hebrides for R&R after Biafra, I declined to risk blackwater fever ashore on Malekula because I’d forgotten to stock up on Chloroquine stateside.

        Cheers

      • Don Monfort

        Willis isn’t here, rustle pompous ___. He died decades ago after taking 4.5 grams of chloroquine in 3 days. Doesn’t seem to affect other folks that way, but Willis was just unlucky. How is that lonely blog of yours?

      • Russell Seitz | May 1, 2020 at 1:57 am |

        Willis says i
        ” quote someone as saying”

        “Chloroquine overdose is common, especially in countries where malaria is prevalent, and the mortality rate is 10–30%”

        It’s not a someone Willis, its a bloody meidical school textbook!.

        I agreed that what your medical textbook says is true. Not sure what your issue is.

        “If you object to my scientific claims, I’m more than willing to discuss that—just quote exactly what I said, and tell us exactly why and where you think it’s wrong.”

        IMHO, telling adults as you ahve in WUWT to swallow nine half gram tablets- a medically probable fatal dose of a persistent drug one tablet of which has killed many an unsuicidal child in the malarial tropics is a considerable act of moral imibicility.

        Russell, this is why I invited you to quote EXACTLY what I said. I NEVER told adults to “swallow nine half gram tablets”, that’s the voices in your head.

        What I did say is that I, and other people I know, have taken three half-gram tablets (500 mg, which have 300 mg of chloroquine per tablet) per day for three days more than once. Not only did it not kill us, as you fatuously claim, but it also didn’t even make us sick. Here’s my quote.

        Finally, after suffering a couple more bouts of malaria over the next couple years, my mad mate Mike told me that when you feel malaria coming on, and you can definitely can feel it coming on, to take three weekly doses at once (1500 mg, or 900 mg of base), then the same thing 24 hours later, then the same thing on the third day. He swore it fended off the malaria.

        So I started using his plan, and I never got full-blown malaria again. Just take nine weeks worth of chloroquine in three days, it aborts the onset of the chills and fever, no problem.

        In addition, at the time, I knew dozens and dozens of expatriates in the Solomons and maybe half or more of them used chloroquine for either prophylaxis or cure of malaria.

        In summary: yes, as with any medicine, some people suffer side effects from chloroquine. But it is widely tolerated. In addition, it’s cheap because it’s been used since the 1930s, so it’s been off-patent for decades, and the side effects are well known

        Do we know scientifically if it works for COVID-19? Nope. But I’ll guarantee you that if I get the ‘rona, I will take chloroquine and azithromycin and zinc. Nothing to lose, everything to gain, and Fauci is both mad and destructive to argue against it.

        I said that I would take it. I did NOT say that you, or anyone else, should take it. And no, I wouldn’t take three tablets a day for three days. I believe the current protocol is two tablets a day.

        Regards,

        w.

      • Willis Eschenbach: Next, the blog you have linked to pretends to be the blog Watts Up With That, in order to deceive the unwary. This is underhanded.

        It’s a play on words, or at least on type. Live with it.

        There are substantive points to address.

        Such as this: Pharmacokinetics.
        ” Chloroquine and related drugs are highly tissue-bound (volume of distribution [Vd] = 150–250 L/kg) and are eliminated very slowly from the body. The terminal half-life of chloroquine is 2 months, and that of hydroxychloroquine is 40 days.” (see also Table II–61).
        Toxic dose. The therapeutic dose of chloroquine phosphate is 500 mg once a week for malaria prophylaxis or 2.5 g over 2 days for treatment of malaria.
        Deaths have been reported in children after ingesting one or two tablets—doses as low as 300 mg; the lethal dose of chloroquine for an adult is estimated at 30–50 mg/kg.

        Due to documented damage by SARS CoV-2 to intestines and liver, it is highly likely that the drug accumulates to higher concentrations in affected people than the healthy people on whom PK has been estimated.

        Risks of hydroxychloroquine are well documented, and reported in some of the recent studies of its use in COVID-19. We’ll be learning more as results of the clinical trials are reported in detail.

      • Don Monfort

        “Risks of hydroxychloroquine are well documented, and reported in some of the recent studies of its use in COVID-19.”

        You keep harping that. We know, already. There are warnings about risks. Give us some info that is substantive. How many people have died or suffered serious harm from hydroxychloroquine?

        This is the dosage in the Univ. of Minn. trial:

        Drug: Hydroxychloroquine
        200mg tablet; 800 mg orally once, followed in 6 to 8 hours by 600 mg, then 600mg once a day for 4 consecutive days
        Other Name: Plaquenil

        This is on the high end of dosages I have seen discussed for other trials and treatments being given to patients in hospitals. The two interim reports on these trials that have treated over 1200 patients report no safety concerns.

        The Brazil study arm that was discontinued, not due to any actual harm to patients, but due to concern over QT prolongation, involved a ten day course of treatment with 1.2 grams/day of the more dangerous chloroquine.

        We know that HDQ is being used all over the world and is the preferred first line treatment of a plurality of 6000 docs surveyed, so how many patients have died or suffered serious harm, because they were treated with HDQ? Give us a number.

        PS: Seitz is a clown, who impersonates WUWT to draw eyes to his lame and lonely blog. Advising WUWT stalwart Willis to “get over it” is impertinent and silly.

      • Matthew R Marler

        Don Monfort: You keep harping that. We know, already. There are warnings about risks. Give us some info that is substantive. How many people have died or suffered serious harm from hydroxychloroquine?

        I repeat it for three reasons:(1) some people write as though it is risk-free and widely sold without warning; (2) the trials that have reported good results with HCQ are not reporting their adverse reactions, but in the sample sizes reported (e.g. >1000, 2500) there ought to be non-negligible numbers. This is suspicious (“smells fishy”?) My guess is that their patients have above average health for their ages, but there are other possibilities; (3) some doctors recommend close monitoring of patients on HCQ, and that’s why such recommendations should be taken seriously, not ignored or disparaged.

      • Don Monfort

        If you are going to keep harping on the risks that are incessantly and hysterically publicized by the left loon politically motivated media, you should feel some obligation to give us a ____ing number.

        “(1) some people write as though it is risk-free and widely sold without warning; ”

        Who does that? Strawman foolishness, not expected from a grownup.

        (2) the trials that have reported good results with HCQ are not reporting their adverse reactions, but in the sample sizes reported (e.g. >1000, 2500) there ought to be non-negligible numbers. This is suspicious (“smells fishy”?)

        Maybe they aren’t reporting adverse reactions, because they did not see any of reportable significance. Which trials do you think smell fishy? Are you talking about any trials that are overseen and regulated by Data Safety Monitoring Boards? Are you accusing clinical researchers and DSMBs of doing something fishy with trial results? Do you have the facts to back up your silly assertions? The fact is you can’t find numbers, so you are making up stories to explain the lack of actual documentation, of actual victims, of the possible side effects.

        “My guess is that their patients have above average health for their ages, but there are other possibilities;”

        Why are you guessing? Do you think some dishonest docs are cherry picking their patients? Look at the data from the trials you are concerned about and tell us what you find regarding the health and ages of the patients.

        “(3) some doctors recommend close monitoring of patients on HCQ, and that’s why such recommendations should be taken seriously, not ignored or disparaged.”

        Strawman alert! This is bizarre. Who is ignoring or disparaging doctors recommending close monitoring of patients? You need to take a break. We’ll give you a week to get your act together. Come back with some numbers, or an admission that you are confused and clueless

      • Don Monfort

        went to moderation
        summary:
        -lot of strawman foolishness
        -you guess
        -you smell something fishy
        -you are questioning the honesty of docs conducting trials and the DMSBs that supervise them
        -you suspect docs of cherry picking patients
        -you can’t find evidence of significant numbers of actual victims to justify your obsession with POSSIBLE side effects that ain’t happening
        whatever

      • Don Monfort

        OK, it’s out of moderation. Now, you also have the Cliff Notes version.

      • > Who is ignoring or disparaging doctors recommending close monitoring of patients?

        Funny. Ain’t nobody here but us chickens.

      • Don Monfort

        Somewhere out there, probably in AOC’s unfortunate Congressional district, little joshie is curled up on a futon in a tiny dingy studio apartment chortling to himself over his imagined cleverness. Your life will get better, joshie. The Trump check is in the mail.

      • Don Monfort asks Mathewmarker , | May 1, 2020 at 3:40 pm ”

        If you are going to keep harping on the risks that are incessantly and hysterically publicized by the left loon politically motivated media, you should feel some obligation to give us a ____ing number.

        “(1) some people write as though it is risk-free and widely sold without warning; ”

        Who does that?”

        Willis Eschenbach, of course: In replying to my humble blog post here he edited out his WUWT articles potentially fatal money quote :

        “Just take nine weeks worth of chloroquine [9 x 500mg = 4.5 grams ] in three days, it aborts the onset of the chills and fever, no problem…
        Do we know scientifically if it works for COVID-19? Nope

        But I’ll guarantee you that if I get the ‘rona, I will take chloroquine and azithromycin and zinc.

        Nothing to lose, everything to gain, and Fauci is both mad and destructive to argue against it…

        And that’s my story of chloroquine and the reason why I say that anyone who gets the virus should at least try it. “

        To avoid the risk of death, Willis should forthrightly retract his potentially lethal advice where he published it , lest his negligence in touting a dangerous dose of a dangerous drug should contribute to increasing the present death toll rather than reducing it., which would be an outcome most very cruel and even criminal.

      • Don Monfort

        It’s back with the same old lie. Willis didn’t advise anybody to take a lethal or dangerous dose. You don’t know anything about a lethal or dangerous dose of chloroquine. He didn’t say it is widely sold without a warning. You can’t provide a number for how many out of a billion who have taken it that were seriously harmed or were fatalities due to taking it. Instead of just vague yammerings about the RISK, quantify it, you clown. Crawl back to your lame lonely disingenuous imposter blog and get back to us when you have got something substantive. You are just leaving your droppings here here.

      • Don Monfort: “Risks of hydroxychloroquine are well documented, and reported in some of the recent studies of its use in COVID-19.”

        You keep harping that. We know, already. There are warnings about risks. Give us some info that is substantive. How many people have died or suffered serious harm from hydroxychloroquine?

        We know that HDQ is being used all over the world and is the preferred first line treatment of a plurality of 6000 docs surveyed, so how many patients have died or suffered serious harm, because they were treated with HDQ? Give us a number.

        You are going to have to decide whether you do think the risks of adverse reactions to HCQ are well-known and documented or do not think so. If they are real and well-known, then there has to be some real explanation of why adverse reactions are not being reported among the many clinical applications of HCQ in COVID-19. Since there is an obvious lack of reporting, there is no hope yet of understanding, but the lack of reporting undermines the credibility of reports of success.

      • Don Monfort

        >Don Monfort: “Risks of hydroxychloroquine are well documented, and reported in some of the recent studies of its use in COVID-19.”<

        You are lost and stumbling around, again. I was quoting from your comment just above mine and now you are quoting me quoting you and thinking it's me. Have you been watching CNN, again? You know what that does to your mind.

        I told you to take a break. It's good advice. Come back when you have some numbers on actual patients who have actually suffered from actual serious damage to their health or actually died. If you can confirm your suspicions that medical practitioners are hiding incidents of significant adverse events, call the cops.

      • Classic:

        > By Corsi’s account, Zelinsky went to a government website that lists approved clinical trials and found no reference to Zelenko.

        After learning of the federal prosecutor’s interest, Corsi said he asked Zelenko about whether he had an FDA approved study — as Corsi said Zelenko had told another physician at a training event. Zelenko, Corsi said, then suggested his study was approved instead by an internal hospital panel.

        “I pointed out to Zelenko, ‘But it’s not registered as an FDA test, and you can’t say it is,’ ” Corsi said Thursday on YouTube, adding that he did not feel Zelenko was trying to defraud anyone, but rather did not understand what it meant to have an FDA-approved test.

        https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/vladimir-zev-zelenko-fox-news-trump-hydroxychloroquine-jerome-corsi/2020/04/30/82622456-8af2-11ea-ac8a-fe9b8088e101_story.html

      • Interesting.

        Hadn’t seen this before – a letter from local officials asking Zev to cease and decist:

        https://matzav.com/letter-kiryas-joel-responds-to-dr-zev-zelenko/

        Turns out the good doctor predicted 90% of the locality would be infected.

        I hope his medical skills are better than his math skills.

      • Don Monfort: I was quoting from your comment just above mine and now you are quoting me quoting you and thinking it’s me.

        What you added and that I quoted was that what I wrote was known already. Are you in agreement that the risks are well-known? If they are real and not reported in clinical studies or reports of clinical use, then there are problems with those reports.

        For example, HCQ causes heart arrhythmias, but the incidence of those arrhythmias is not reported in some of the accounts. Did they treat an unusually healthy group of people among whom none suffered that adverse reaction?

        Then there’s atrial fibrillation (A-fib), which has a prevalence of 14% in people over 70, those at highest risk of dying from COVID-19. What was done by the researchers with those patients who had A-fib? It should be reported.

        We have written and read repeatedly about age; well-documented but frequently ignored is that elderly people clear the drug from their system more slowly than the mostly younger people on whom the dosing regimens are based. Consequently, the drugs accumulate to higher concentrations with repeated dosing than in the younger people. The same occurs if there is liver damage or concomitant medications. So, what exactly has been done to monitor the plasma concentrations of HCQ in the elderly who are being dosed several days in a row?

        These details have to be addressed, and reported, before we are able to assess the effectiveness of a drug treatment for a disease from which most sufferers will recover without it.

    • Russell, You are just pathetic here trying to get people to visit your blog.

      1. You are conflating chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine. The latter is vastly safer.
      2. The woman who served fish tank cleaner to her husband is now under investigation for murder. She it turns out has assaulted her husband in the past.
      3. HDCQ’s side effects are mostly associated with chronic usage over decades. Short coarses are generally quite safe according to my brother, an MD, who did his own research.

      You as someone without qualifications in medical subjects should just stick to political hatchet jobs and leave the science to those who actually know something about it.

    • I tried quinine after being in discomfort for three weeks. There were no side effects at all. It made a noticeable effect within 18 hours, and I stopped after a full week because of a drop in symptoms. I took symptomatic OTC meds for another day then stopped everything save zinc 50 mg and B complex.

  8. “My reanalysis of the skewed data used for the study raises a strong possibility that hydroxychloroquine by itself and in combination with azithromycin (the Z-pack) was saving lives. Yes, the drugs could have been saving lives in this study and are probably continuing to do so around the world.”

    Wow. And it shows how corrupt Huff Po and most of the media is. They basically skewed the science.

  9. ” Dr. Fauci backed controversial Wuhan lab with millions of U.S. dollars for risky coronavirus research ”

    What made the research really risky was the reserchers having millions of U.S. dollars to spend orderin Wuhan wet market take-out for lunch.

    https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2020/04/try-stir-fried-fox-with-news-on-side.html

    • Readers should note

      1. The AAPS is not the AMA ,and Don’s link indulges in a fairly crude statistical switcheroo : the table in the post swerves from national death rates per million population with deaths as a function of the number of cases. The two are not commensurate

      2. Don just changed the subject from chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine

      • Readers have noted that you are an ignorant ideologically motivated hack.

      • Adam Gallon

        Hi Willis, I believe that “Curious George”, is referring the Seitz, not you, as he notes vvatts, nor watts.

    • Curious George

      How much does your reference pay you for lifting their popularity?
      Or, are you Mr. vvatsupwiththat in person?

      • Curious George | May 1, 2020 at 8:02 pm

        How much does your reference pay you for lifting their popularity?
         
        Or, are you Mr. vvatsupwiththat in person?

        Thanks, George. In reply to your questions:

        First, I make no money for any of my research. Not from Watts Up With That. Not from anyone. It’s wonderful because this way no one can accuse me of coming to any given conclusion for pecuniary reasons.

        Next, I am assuredly not Mr. WattsUpWithThat. That would be Anthony Watts. Anthony has been kind enough to allow me to publish just about any of my work.

        Best regards, stay well,

        w.

      • Don Monfort

        Mr. v v atsupwiththat

        Willis, I believe George is addressing that to the ignorant ideologically motivated hack from the lame and lonely impostor blog.

  10. From the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons:

    “AAPS concludes that: “the safety of Hydroxychloroquine is well documented. When the safe use of this drug is projected against its apparent effect of decreasing the progression of early cases to ventilator use, it is difficult to understand the reluctance of the authorities in charge of U.S. pandemic management to recommend its use in early COVID-19 cases.”

    “Apr 27 data show that U.S. COVID-19 death rates are at least eight times higher than in countries with early and prophylactic use of HCQ.”

    https://aapsonline.org/evidence-hydroxychloroquine/

    Apparently the efficacy of HCQ is in the EARLY use of it, while some U.S. states have banned its use unless the patient is in the late stages.

    • Janie Hsieh, PhD, notes each U.S. state’s HCQ policy, as of April 20:

    • New York Dr. Zelenko’s HCQ regimen was for outpatients and for just five days. He showed 100% success keeping his COVID-19 patients out of the hospital, as of March 23.

      https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SesxgaPnpT6OfCYuaFSwXzDK4cDKMbivoALprcVFj48/mobilebasic

      My understanding of how early use of HCQ works is because it changes the PH and delivers zinc to the cells, which slows the replication of the virus, allowing time for the immune system to rise to the challenge.

      A reason why HCQ may be inappropriate for patients quite ill (as in the retrospective VA study) is because it can slow the immune system at the worst possible time; HCQ is effective against autoimmune diseases lupus and rheumatoid arthritis partly because it reduces the immune response. See the table in the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons article mentioned above – the death rate is higher when HCQ is administered late.

      The U.S. Governors who restrict or ban hydroxychloroquine prior to hospitalization, but allow it for hospitalized patients may be doing it exactly wrong.

  11. Indonesian study: Low Vitamin D patients ten times more likely to die of Coronavirus

    Of those who died most (85%) had a co-morbidity, the real surprise is that even more than that, 96% had low Vitamin D levels.  Of those who survived, most people had normal Vitamin D levels.  Only 7% of survivors had low or deficient Vitamin D. That is quite a split.

    Vitamin D deficiency was very common among these Indonensian patients. Half of those measured did not have enough Vitamin D in their blood. Of those that did, 96% survived, and only 4% “expired”. Vitamin D looks like a good protector.

    After controlling for known risk like being old, or male or having high blood pressure, a Vitamin D level described as deficient (less than 20ng/ml) was associated with a 10 fold greater risk of death. These are quite extraordinary numbers. In most medical studies an OR (odds ratio) as low as 1.3 is notable enough to get published. But these are OR’s of 10.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/indonesian-study-low-vitamin-d-patients-ten-times-more-likely-to-die-of-coronavirus/

  12. Matthew R Marler

    Fauci: second wave of coronavirus inevitable [link]
    .
    Second wave of deadly virus is very unlikely [link]

    Now we know

  13. Trump did not promote a “miracle drug”. He said “What have we got to lose”? But putting that aside:

    My reanalysis of the skewed data used for the study raises a strong possibility that hydroxychloroquine by itself and in combination with azithromycin (the Z-pack) was saving lives. Yes, the drugs could have been saving lives in this study and are probably continuing to do so around the world.

    How is it possible that a study which claims to show that a drug which supposedly caused an excessive death rate might instead have proven that the drug was saving lives? Because the patients getting the treatment with hydroxychloroquine were much more ill—much nearer to death and much more likely to die—than the patients who did not receive the drug.

    Federal government approval for hydroxychloroquine was only “authorized” for “emergency use.” In line with this, President Trump has repeatedly said, in effect, “If people are going to die anyway, why not try it?” That is also what the FDA essentially approved it for—people in an “emergency” condition. Although the guideline does not define emergency use, it would certainly rule out using it routinely and probably not at all for patients who were not deathly ill.

    The study itself recognizes this flaw far into their discussion (p. 12):

    Baseline demographic and comorbidity characteristics were comparable across the three treatment groups. However, hydroxychloroquine, with or without azithromycin, was more likely to be prescribed to patients with more severe disease, as assessed by baseline ventilatory status and metabolic and hematologic parameters. Thus, as expected, increased mortality was observed in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, both with and without azithromycin. (bold added, p. 12)

    It was expected that more patients would die while taking the drugs because they were being given to much sicker patients! The authors claim to have found a statistical way to overcome this fatal flaw, but there is no way to do so. Control groups would be needed in which patients who had equally bad prognoses were divided into medication treatment and non-medication treatment groups.

    This illustrates one kind of biased assignment, which is why random assignment with double-blinding is necessary. His reanalysis raises the possibility that the drug was working, but provides no evidence. His point is sound, no doubt about that, but no inference can be drawn.. As has been said about other reports, it was clinical practice, not a trial.

  14. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The main treatment should be a reduction of angiotensin II, because it is the main proinflammatory factor in Covid-19 disease. Therefore, deterioration of the patient’s condition often occurs after 10 days, despite the production of antibodies.
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/biochemistry-genetics-and-molecular-biology/angiotensin-converting-enzyme-2

  15. Ireneusz Palmowski

    We know Cov-2 binds to the ACE2 enzyme, which stops functioning in the lungs. This causes narrowing of the blood vessels in the lungs and pneumonia in completely healthy people.
    The ACE2 enzyme is an extremely important enzyme that regulates the level of angiotensin II in the body by reducing angiotensin II to angiotensin (1-7), which has the opposite effect (dilates the blood vessels). Excess angiotensin II wreaks havoc on the body.

  16. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Antiviral drugs are effective in the first phase of treatment, however, in the second phase, inactivation of ACE2 by the virus causes an increase in angiotensin II, which is a very strong and fast-acting hormone. Despite the fact that the antibodies work, there are changes in the lungs.
    A prophylactic dose of 4000 vitamin D units appears to be indicated.

    • Ireneusz Palmowski

      The effects of vitamin D on the renin-angiotensin system:
      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3999581/
      ‘Compared with vitamin D-sufficient individuals, those with vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency had greater plasma angiotensin II levels’

    • Ireneusz Palmowski

      The ACE enzyme converts angiotensin I into angiotensin II, so you should think about drugs that inhibit ACE activity.
      Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors
      ACE inhibitors are commonly prescribed to treat high blood pressure, heart problems and other conditions. Find out how they work and their potential side effects.

      By Mayo Clinic Staff
      Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors help relax your veins and arteries to lower your blood pressure. ACE inhibitors prevent an enzyme in your body from producing angiotensin II, a substance that narrows your blood vessels. This narrowing can cause high blood pressure and force your heart to work harder. Angiotensin II also releases hormones that raise your blood pressure.
      https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/high-blood-pressure/in-depth/ace-inhibitors/art-20047480

  17. Perhaps a US citizen in here can provide the answer to my plaintive query on a (virtual) postcard?

    http://CoV-eHealth.org/2020/04/30/covid-19-testing-in-the-uk/

    I am forced to wonder why on Earth a United States credit checking agency such as TransUnion should be involved in the process of obtaining a long overdue test for a UK citizen suffering from the symptoms of Covid-19?

    • Jim

      Trans Union does have a large British branch. They have a covid 19 advice centre and presumably a call centre facility. As a\ credit agency they are presumably in place to check who you say you are regarding being a British citizen, that you have an NHS number and that you live where you say you do

      Here are their contact details.

      https://www.transunion.co.uk/contact-us

      I suggest you approach them as a journalist, after all if this was sinister you will no doubt want to publish it all somewhere

      tonyb

      • stevenreincarnated

        They may ask questions like what your monthly mortgage payment is to help make sure you are who you say you are. I’ve undergone similar quizzes before when dealing with the government.

      • Morning Tony (UTC),

        I already have published it somewhere! See also:

        If you don’t already have a “Government Gateway” login our Lords and Masters are generally quite content to allow the Great British Post Office to confirm your ID.

        Why not in this case?

      • Steven,

        What possible relevance does ones mortgage have to determining whether you are suffering from a sometimes deadly disease or not?

        Unfortunately reincarnation is not an option for most people. BoJo is of course the exception that proves the rule!

      • stevenreincarnated

        Jim, It has nothing to do with it. It does have something to do with proving your identity. They ask a series of questions having to do with payments or at least that has been my experience. The last time I was trying to replace my social security card on line. They had me answer about 5 or 6 of those type of questions, had me fill out an online account with them, and then told me I couldn’t do it online when I was finished.

      • stevenreincarnated

        My name here used to be just steven. When we had to register to comment steven was already taken. What a shock. This wasn’t though.

      • Mornin’ Steven (and Tony),

        This is the way our glorious Government has traditionally verified the ID of Great British citizens:

        Why the sudden change for Covid-19 tests do you suppose?

      • stevenreincarnated

        I assume they consider it a more secure system. If you can check the results of the test online that would be sensitive personal information although I suppose asking for one could be also. Maybe your government is just switching over and you’d find it other places now. I just assumed they considered it more secure when I saw it here and didn’t really think about it further but my first experience wasn’t with anything that would make me suspicious.

    • Why would a US citizen know or care about that?
      You have a choice there. Take the drive-through option and feggit about it.
      Do you call his type “fussbudgets” over there, tony?

      • Don

        I thought that this was going to be a Montford original word, but then had vague recollections of a ‘fussbucket’ and see both words are right

        https://www.waywordradio.org/fussbudget-vs-fussbucket/

        tonyb

      • Don Monfort

        Thanks, tony. Fussbucket is good. I never did get the budget part. But don’t call me Montford. If anything, Montfort, which was allededly Anglicized to Monfort in the old days, to avoid being called Norman and some epithet.

        The original Simon de Montfort (built a fort on a mountain in Normandy) was one of William the Conquerer’s top henchman. A namesake/descendant Simon V de Montfort was the 6th Earl of Leicester and “Often dubbed the father of English democracy”

        https://www.historyextra.com/period/medieval/facts-simon-de-montfort-history-death-famous-parliament/

        I am of the black sheep Detroit branch of the family.

      • Don

        Very interesting. Thanks for the link.

        Yes, good old Simon de Montfort whose history was drilled into me at school especially ‘the provisions of Oxford’ a fine step to democracy. Just to show this is STILL a climate blog the provisions came in a tumultuous year for weather with a huge volcanic explosion

        Click to access ClimImpts1258VolcaClimChg00.pdf

        There we are Judith, we are still on message

        tonyb

      • Don Monfort

        Thanks, tony. But you don’t have video and seismograph record of the eruption. Satellite data and images. Where da lava at? Mosher will be along any minute, to complain.

      • Curious George

        Tony, in 2013 the 1258 volcano has been identified as a 1257 eruption of Samalas, island of Lombok, Indonesia.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1257_Samalas_eruption

      • Mornin’ Don (and Tony),

        I foolishly assumed that somebody from the Western side of the pond would know more about the activities of TransUnion than I do.

        I have other choices too. One which I will make is to write to my Member of Parliament. Based on past experience I don’t expect it will do me much good though!

        https://V2G.co.uk/2015/07/an-open-letter-to-mel-stride-george-osborne-david-cameron-et-al/

      • Afternoon Tony,

        I’ve finally received an answer to the first question that I put to my MP:

        The Prime Minister has said today during Prime Ministers Questions that he will be setting out the next steps that the UK will take this coming Sunday. I await his comments with bated breath – as I am sure many others do.

        On the subject of tracing and tracking cases, the Health Secretary Matt Hancock said this yesterday:

        “We are developing a new test, track and trace programme to help to control the spread of covid-19, and to be able to trace the virus better as it passes from person to person. This will bring together technology through an app, an extensive web of phone-based contract tracing and, of course, the testing needed ​to underpin all that. The roll-out has already started on the Isle of Wight, and I pay tribute to and thank the Islanders for the enthusiasm with which they have taken up the pilot. I hope that we learn a lot from the roll-out, so that we can take those learnings and roll the programme out across the whole country.”

        He added that “…the more people who download the app, the more people will protect themselves, their families and their communities.”

        I hope this information goes some way towards addressing your question. Feel free to get back in touch if you have any other concerns.

        Now to ask some supplementary questions!!

      • Jim

        I don’t see how that reply answers your original question.

        As for the app, if you download that they may be asking why you are taking your exercise on Bodmin moon and on a surf board in the ocean. However you can put forward your green car in mitigation

        tonyb

      • Evenin’ Tony,

        Sorry for any confusion. The “TransUnion” question was one of the ones I put to my MP today, following the above answer to an earlier question of mine.

        Perhaps we might continue the #Covid19UK conversation over on the new thread?

  18. What is the infection-fatality rate of COVID19?

    It’s a start. He identifies important unknowns. It should be noted that we don’t even know the number of people in any nation who died of COVID-19, because we don’t know the prevalence in the stream of patients at each hospital; don’t know the false positive and false negative rates of the diagnostic tests; and don’t know the number of people with low viral loads who died of something else, such as stroke, aneurism, or cancer.

    • Or the number who died at home or in care facilities “of” COVID and weren’t tested.

    • The uncertainty is no different than it is for every other new virus. The case fatality rate for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic was reported as high as 13.5%. And most studies initially estimated it between 0.1% and 5% based on the initial case fatality rates. The rate is now believed to be about 0.02%. There are still those that believe the death toll from the 2009 pandemic was ten times higher than the official toll for all the reasons they believe its much higher for COVID 19 now.

      Meanwhile healthcare systems “furlough” people and reduce hours as cancer goes undiagnosed, and heart attack victims die in their beds too afraid to go to the hospital.

      • Adam Gallon

        With the data out there, that’s showing a large percentage of people contracting Covid-19, do so in hospital, it’s no surprise people are avoiding the places, literally like the plague.

    • Joshua | May 1, 2020 at 12:06 pm | Reply
      Or the number who died at home or in care facilities “of” COVID and weren’t tested.

      dougbadgero | May 1, 2020 at 9:10 pm | Reply
      The uncertainty is no different than it is for every other new virus.

      I agree with you both. Thanks for the comments.

  19. This recent UN report states that deaths in Africa could be anywhere from 300,000 to 3.3M and infections could reach 1.2 Billion.or about 90% of the population.

    The current death toll in all of Africa is 1,634 with 38,000 cases.

    There are still several African countries without a death and many more with deaths under 100 or rates of deaths per million under 10.

    Click to access eca_covid_report_en_rev16april_5web.pdf

  20. Robert Clark

    DATE NEW CASES INCREASE % # TESTS
    4/24/2020 39,887 7,763 24.1 465,986
    4/25/2020 36,342 -3,545 -8.8 251,263
    4/26/2020 39,806 3,462 9.5 256,441
    4/27/2020 23,095 -16,711 -41.9 216,029
    28-Apr 22,840 -255 -1.1 179,755
    4/29/2020 29,025 6,185 27 259,856
    4/30/2020 28,117 -908 -3.1 194,323ons
    5/1/2020 30,093 1,979 7 83,643
    It apears they did not get a complete update of total tests in before the cutoff time. Will probably combind the two days tomorrow.
    I would have thought they would have the positive tests far less than the growth of new infections. More testing is required.

  21. “.We still don’t know how the coronavirus is killing us [link]”

    This article, by David Wallace-Wells is an alarmist editorialized piece worthy only of tabloid status; plus, he doesn’t know medicine and yet he feels compelled to write about it. I guess, if one writes something that is long enough, you are likely to encompass many of the signs that accompany viral pneumonia and its potential dissemination throughout the body. Mr. Wallace-Wells is also long on hyperbole. Eliciting a new and mysterious disorder unlike anything seen before. Wrong.

    There are viral illnesses that seem relatively innocuous when they infect children, say chicken pox, and yet chicken pox in a naive young adult and older, can be a severe disease manifesting all the findings reported for COVID-19.
    Measles, in undernourished children, also starts as a viral pneumonia, will ravage the body with findings as observed in COVID-19.

    I did read the NYT article by the volunteer ER doc who observed oxygen saturations in the near death values and yet the person was talking on their cell phone only to suddenly rapidly decline.

    First, the oxygen saturations were recorded by a pulse oximeter whose range of calibration is from 85% to 99%. Values lower the 85% are not within the range of the measuring device. Second, blood flow through the fingers needs to be sufficient for the pulse oximeter to measure via three wave length for the red cell’s hemoglobin oxygen saturation as the four states of hemoglobin saturation is detected at different wave lengths.

    Finally, when someone crashes that rapidly blood clots are a high likelihood and as the peripheral circulation like fingers and toes may see clots that would limit blood flow as well as accumulate into massive clots traveling to many parts of the body.The term: thrombo-embolism.

    Dr. Curry, I suggest finding another article, shorter and to the point on why people die when initially infected and develop viral pneumonia.

  22. From the looks of this chart, the NY Cuomo-De Blasio syndicate is doing a great job of reducing deaths in their domain from heart disease, cancer, accidents, strokes, stubbed toe, falling trees and everything else except COVID 19:

    https://i0.wp.com/www.citizenfreepress.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ovid-virus-chart.jpg?ssl=1

    • On the bright side, deaths from old age should be significantly reduced for the rest of the year. The NY Cuomo-De Blasio syndicate has been very successful at culling the nursing home population.

  23. Breaking news that might have some bearing on social distancing in the DC courts: Mark Jacobson ordered to pay Chris Clack’s legal fees.

    Attempting to shut down debate and demonizing the opposition is one of the hallmarks of the all-renewable-energy tribe. And there’s no small bit of irony in the fact that Fox’s effort to censor Planet of the Humans was launched just two days after his ally, Jacobson, was reproached by a federal court for trying to intimidate one of his critics by filing a frivolous lawsuit against him. On April 20, Jacobson was ordered to pay the legal fees of Chris Clack, the Colorado mathematician who Jacobson sued in 2017 for $10 million on claims that Clack had defamed him. Jacobson’s lawsuit, which also named the National Academy of Sciences, was a classic example of a SLAPP suit, or strategic litigation against public participation. What was Clack’s sin? He, along with nearly two dozen other prominent scientists, debunked the claims that Jacobson was making about – what else? — renewable energy.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertbryce/2020/04/30/stanford-professor-cant-muzzle-planet-of-the-humans-must-pay-defendants-legal-fees-in-slapp-suit/?fbclid=IwAR3wMa5z5CNVLNfMgwLVC8Gcw0iYWk5oCR7q0uoagOj-SZurF1JknsGWuXY#78df1988e0ac

  24. “New paper using Chinese data confirms lower attack rate of COVID19 for children compared to adults which in turn is still lower than the elderly.”

    This statement is WRONG. The Science study cited does not show this. It gives no results regarding attack rates. What it shows is that that, if exposed to the COVID-SARS-2 virus via a contact, older people are more likely to contract COVID-19 (test positive using RT-PCR) than younger people.

    However, it also shows that older (age >60) people on average had considerably fewer contacts than younger adults, and so did children (particularly young children). The

    The attack rate is the proportion of people who become infected. Since that is a function of the number of times they are exposed to the virus by a contact as well as their probability of contracting disease if so exposed, the results of the study could imply the the attack rate for older people was either higher lower than for younger adults. Examination of the limited relevant information provided in the paper and its SI suggests that overall the two factors largely cancel out, but that the picture may differ significantly between Wuhan and Shanghai.

    • I suspect that a lot of these studies will be used for political purposes and they will be interpreted to say what someone wants them to say rather than what they actually say. Sort of like a Beatles song or a fine Picasso.

  25. Returning to the topic of the Great British Covid-19 testing shambles, I find myself strangely in agreement with my old mate Andrew Neil yet again:

    http://CoV-eHealth.org/2020/04/29/covid-19-in-the-uk-in-may-2020/#comment-70

    Indeed the more you looked at the 122,000 stat, the more it looks a propaganda figure rather than a reliable guide.

    What is the world coming to?

    • No big surprise. A politician makes an off the cuff statement, that the media leaps on. Politician realises he’s handed a loaded gun to the opposition parties & so needs to quickly “Do something”, so his supporters can cheer for him & sleight the press.

  26. RE: https://breggin.com/negative-study-of-trump-miracle-drug-actually-shows-it-works/

    I find it alarming that a drug combination that has been shown to work in early treatment of Covid-19 (HCQ, azithromycin, and zinc sulfate) has been mocked by Dr. Fauci and no attempts have been made for an organized and quick clinical assessment of whether or not this works. Instead, apparently NY state has limited the ability of pharmacies to dispense HCQ to physicians, and Arizona has done the same. Why?

    India has about 1,000 deaths from Covid in a population of about 1.4 billion and with many millions crowded together. This is far below the US death rate, and India is using HCQ as an early treatment. https://aapsonline.org/evidence-hydroxychloroquine/

    A lot of unanswered questions about Covid-19 panic and what appears to be a deliberate attempt to confuse, slander and misguide on a promising early treatment option for the disease.

    • Yep, little weasel Fauci has poured a lot of cold water on HDQ, but has gotten all irrationally exuberant over Remdesivir. Recent reported results of a Remdesivir trial were underwhelming to me as an investor in Gilead, yet Fauci rejoiced and the FDA quickly conferred Emergency Use Authorization. I sold my Gilead stock at a very nice profit. More about this later.

      There are many trials underway for HDQ and I predict positive results to be reported soon, particularly from the Univ. of Minn. PEP trial:

      https://judithcurry.com/2020/04/23/covid-discussion-thread-iv/#comment-915178

  27. Evidently, while not shuttering business, Sweden’s economic hit is just as large.

    Individual response was largely the same as a lockdown.

    One may argue against lockdown to preserve liberty, but the result seems the same.

    • From what I’ve read, the Sweden’s response is lot more nuanced than some would think from most comments. I think the epidemiologist behind it said it was specifically not about creating herd immunity but was about managing the number of hospitalizations. BTW they also doubled hospital capacity. There were also social distancing roles and restaurants that violated them were getting shut down.

    • TE –

      One study rule applies, nonetheless, the argument that government mandates are what have caused/will cause the economic harm, as distinct from hundreds of thousand of people getting infected and tens of thousands of people dying, has always seemed dubious to me – and likely a function of motivated reasoning.

      The toxic mix of binary thinking and identity protective cognition strikes again.

      • What I’m observing is that things didn’t seem to matter much, one way or another, either from the course of the disease, or from the economic damage.

      • My guess is that there are probably discrete variances that get hidden within an analysis that aggregates all the effects.

      • If you’d like to respond further please do so over at ATTP – where each of my comments isn’t automatically in moderation until Judith finds the time to approve or reject them.

      • Randomengineer de Leather

        Joshua this is misleading. The Swedes economic woes are influenced mostly by the other countries shutdowns limiting international commerce accordingly. A recent interview with (? leader of Sweden ?) said that Volvo for example only had 3 weeks worth of supplies to build with and were having trouble getting them (from outside Sweden.)

      • REdL-

        > mostly by the other countries shutdowns limiting international commerce.

        Mostly? Please show your math. Of course all economies are interconnected. And the problems in the other countries aren’t simply a function of “lockdowns” as distinct from peple getting sick and dying – something that would be happening and arguablyore intensively if there weren’t “lockdowns.”

        The problem is that everyone’s trying to use the pandemic to confirm their preferred political views.

    • Of all forecasting, economic forecasting is one of the most uncertain. In the current unprecedented times I wouldn’t put much store by predictions. Something worth bearing in mind is that there is an ecology and economy of scribblers, and like everyone else they are doing their best to keep busy and sustain themselves and their industry. It is not an option for a scribbler to say nothing because that would put them out of a job, so even when there is nothing they can sensibly say they’ll come up with something anyway. In most cases it’s likely to be entirely worthless speculation.

      • Don Monfort

        You are not a scribbler. We could use more like you around here. Thanks for the contributions.

      • aporiac1960

        “You are not a scribbler.”

        Certainly not! I spent a career in engineering. I did lots of scribbling writing proposals, designs, schedules, etc., but these were plans, not narratives, and so very little speculation was permitted unless tightly bounded because whatever I conceived was ultimately required to pass objective tests as measured by budget, schedule and specification.

        The ‘product’ of professional scribblers on the other hand may contain unlimited lazy assumptions, only answer the questions it can, and badly at that, and simply pretend the ones it can’t answer don’t exit no matter how critical they are, and generally leave so many loose ends that it is worse than useless as a practical guide to anything. Why? Because it rarely matters a jot one way or the other – the scribble being the thing itself, rather than what it purports to relate to.

        I believe it is this characteristic, especially, that accounts for the abysmal shoddiness of almost all journalism, including that contained in the pages of our most ‘serious’ and prestigious publications. It only needs to pass as ‘literature’ and only to those who understand almost nothing else. Does it contain the right amount of ‘affect,’ a skilful rhetorical flourish here and there, qualify as vaguely grammatical? Great! – Give it a Pulitzer Prize for contributing to a more informed public, lol.

      • > In most cases it’s likely to be entirely worthless speculation.

        Hmmm

        Looks rather speculative. How do we establish its worth?

  28. jamanetwork is another source of information, in case anyone has missed it:

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

  29. It seems to be the same people – those who cheer for the use by global warming alarmists’ fears about CO2 to lock down US industry also seem to be those most in support of locking people out of their jobs over COVID19.

  30. Global mortality rates continue to hover
    somewhere around the long term average of 100%.

  31. from the Chinese study of remdesivir, as reported in The Lancet: Remdesivir use was not associated with a difference in time to clinical improvement (hazard ratio 1·23 [95% CI 0·87–1·75]). Although not statistically significant, patients receiving remdesivir had a numerically faster time to clinical improvement than those receiving placebo among patients with symptom duration of 10 days or less (hazard ratio 1·52 [0·95–2·43]). Adverse events were reported in 102 (66%) of 155 remdesivir recipients versus 50 (64%) of 78 placebo recipients. Remdesivir was stopped early because of adverse events in 18 (12%) patients versus four (5%) patients who stopped placebo early.

    • Dayam, 66% of 155 remdesivir recipients experienced adverse events and the FDA just conferred Emergency Use Authorization. And the placebo they used in this trial was just about as bad. There ought to be a special place in Hell for dangerous placebos.

  32. The “paranoid” style:https://spectator.us/paranoid-style-covid-19-central-park-safetyism/

    And sunny, windswept beaches? They must be the safest places in the country.

    • Depends on the behavior at the beaches.

      And other associated factors, such as whether peple take public transportation to get to the beaches.

      The problem is that one person infected in an unlikely event at the beach can then go home and infect numerous others. Not saying close all beaches, jusr sayinf avoid blanket proclamations about what should/shouldn’t be done without carefully considering pros and cons.

      • There can be all sorts of rules and lockdowns etc, but if people don’t use common sense it’s all to the naught. A mother who had just finished her 24 hour shift as a nurse at a local hospital was horrified to find out her 26 year old son had hosted a party at their house with 100 people.

        Brains or lack thereof still rule, rules or not.

      • Joshua: The problem is that one person infected in an unlikely event at the beach can then go home and infect numerous others.

        If sunny windswept beaches are not the safest places, what are?

    • Russell Seitz

      HUZZAH ! They just reopened the sunny sunswept windward beaches here, where if everyone went surfing at once , they’d be twenty yards apart.

      Now our Governor can move on to ordering the sharks to wear face masks.

  33. In the Twitter link to an Atlantic article about, ‘why the confusing is so confusing,’ (story by Ed Yong), and reading through a lot of information that reinforces much of what serious investigators into the virus actually do know, and know they don’t know and having to wade through a few paragraphs of the author needlessly throwing scat at Trump, there a good point to be had that applies to the global warming alarmism pandemic in the western world as well–

    ‘The mathematical models that have guided the world’s pandemic responses have been often portrayed as crystal balls. That is not their purpose. They instead describe a range of possibilities, and help scientists and policy makers to simulate what might happen pending different courses of action. Models reveal many possible fates, and allow us to choose one.’

  34. Robert Clark

    DATE NEW CASES INCREASE % # TESTS
    4/24/2020 39,887 7,763 24.1 465,986
    4/25/2020 36,342 -3,545 -8.8 251,263
    4/26/2020 39,806 3,462 9.5 256,441
    4/27/2020 23,095 -16,711 -41.9 216,029
    28-Apr 22,840 -255 -1.1 179,755
    4/29/2020 29,025 6,185 27 259,856
    4/30/2020 28,117 -908 -3.1 194,323
    5/1/2020 30,093 1,979 7 83,643
    5/2/2020 34,907 4,814 15.9 286,500
    Some of today’s information is the count they did not get in yesterday before the cutoff.
    We do.not know if today’s numbers got all in. We will see tomorrow.

    • Robert Clark

      THE PURPOSEE OFTHE TESTING IS TO GET THE ASOMETRIC WORKERS OUT OF CIRCULATION . THOSE OF US THAT HAVE BEEN SELF ISOLTING FOR MORE FOR MORE THAN 20 DAYS ARE CLEAN.

      TEST,TEST,TEST BEFORE THEY LET THE MILLIONS LOOSE.

  35. Every once in a long while, I come back to this blog, just to check in and reassure myself that things haven’t changed that much. When the topic was climate change, the anti-establishment contingent held sway; espousing views ranging into total denialism of any effect due to CO2. I always had the feeling that the real aim was to oppose the bureaucracy, whatever it came up with. It seems that some of that might have seeped into the debate on corona? After all, a lot of people die, what’s a few more? But the difference is that we would have prevented the other deaths if we had a ready means to do it. We do have a means for the coronavirus. Social isolation and marshal the industrial and health resources of the country to test everyone post haste.
    Some of the bloggers look at this mathematically; if we do this so many die; if we do that some other number will die. And none of the numbers have much credibility. Others, in the same spirit as the weird theories on climate change that used to fill these blog channels, advocate untested, unproven, very unlikely miracle remedies. About 45 years ago I was at my brother’s house and he had some work he took home from Stanford Research Institute. On top of his desk, I noted a plot of Megadeaths vs. Megatons; we were in the cold war. Yes the virus bureaucracy does go overboard with sweeping generalizations of policy, believing that one size fits all. The fact that the bureaucracy is not 100% right does not make it 100% wrong. The fact that the climate alarmists are not 100% right does not make them 100% wrong.

    • Part of the issue is also how one brings values into the math.

      Personally, I think that the welfare of the people who are putting their lives on the line in order to treat people who are ill, and in order to allow those who are vulnerable to stay isolated, earn a disproportionate level of consideration during policy development.

    • We will very much enjoy the long while, until your next gratuitous and uninteresting critique visit.

    • “Every once in a long while, I come back to this blog, just to check in and reassure myself that things haven’t changed that much. When the topic was climate change, the anti-establishment contingent held sway; espousing views ranging into total denialism of any effect due to CO2. I always had the feeling that the real aim was to oppose the bureaucracy, whatever it came up with. It seems that some of that might have seeped into the debate on corona? ”

      I am much the same as you. I used to follow this blog regularly but got tired of the heavy preponderance of de rigueur skeptic views with some exceptions. I still checked in some and noticed the debates with much the same view as you. The difference with the pandemic, however, is the skeptic views get invalidated in weeks instead of decades.

      Predictions here at one point was the virus would cause 5,000 death in the US in April. The April number hit about 60,000.

      So the skeptic argument shifts.

      The number isn’t really that bad and is an over count when, in fact, it is an under count and it is not a good number.

      More died while Obama was President. But that was for all causes over eight years not one month.

      The problem is a New York problem. The Democrat politicians in New York have mismanaged the crisis. Well, it’s not just a New York problem anymore. New cases rising fastest in Trump country.

      Forget how many are dying. We have to open up the country. People die too when the stock market tanks or they can’t get their tattoos.

      It’s amusing.

  36. Looked at a few. Some with high dosages of up to 1.2 grams/day, so the hyperbolic warnings about “possible” side effects aren’t scaring off the pros. Largest trial size I saw was 2000 patients.

    104 Studies found for: covid-19 hydroxychloroquine

    https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?

  37. The only rationale for social distancing (SD) is to avoid overloading hospital capacity. The total number of infections over time is not significantly changed and the only lives saved are those otherwise lost because of insufficient hospital resources. The IHME model, which appears to be the basis for CDC’s SD urgency, has, as input, daily figures for each state of 9 parameters with means and upper and lower bounds as to beds, ventilation, deaths and admissions. CSV spreadsheets of this data are readily downloaded:
    http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads

    There is no explicit information about recovery, discharge, testing or social distancing in this database. It is presumably intended for an AI program, the basis for CDC’s recommendations. It is a statistical program and does not involve the rate constants implicit in epidemeological dynamic modelings. To simulate SD in a spreadsheet SIR model calculation is, however, a simple matter:

    In this illustration, at day 20, the rate constant for infection (new infections per infector per day) is reduced until day 50 when it returns to its original value. In the ‘cold turkey’ case, a second maximum appears almost as large as the peak for no SD. For intermediate SD levels, however, the maximum can reduced by at least 50% to a pseudo-plateau. In all cases, the total number of infections over time still remains around 95% of the total population regardless of SD.

    One may note a growing criticism of the IHME model, e.g.

    https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764774/caution-warranted-using-institute-health-metrics-evaluation-model-predicting-course

    • Mornin’ Quondam (UTC),

      For some rather more forthright criticism of the “non epidemiological” IHME model please see:

      https://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2020/04/dumb-and-dumber.html

      “It’s some sort of fancy curve fitting that doesn’t seem to make much use of what is known about disease dynamics. I may be misrepresenting them somewhat but we’ll see below what a simple disease model predicts.”

    • As a senior after-thought, the IHME spreadsheet contains sufficient information to construct an SIR epidemiological plot from just two columns, admis_mean and allbed_mean. This presumes that all hospital admissions up to a date are either infected and occupying beds or have either recovered or died. For New Jersey,

      The ratio of I(max) to R(inf) is equivalent to a 2.7 infections/infector/day rate. Data for May must be estimates. This curve would seem most applicable to that small fraction of the total population, 30000, requiring hospitalization. Deaths account for about 25% Of the ‘recovered’. Total ‘positives’ for the state are currently reported as 130,000.

  38. Matthew R Marler

    seroprevalence of SARS CoV-2 in some Barcelona hospitals, a preprint:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20082289v1

    • Thanks Matthew,

      Conclusions: The seroprevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 among HCW was lower than expected. Thus, being a high-risk population, we anticipate these estimates to be an upper limit to the seroprevalence of the general population. Forty per cent of those with past or present infection had not been previously diagnosed with COVID-19, which calls for active periodic rRT-PCR testing among all HCW to minimize potential risk of hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infections.

  39. Virus World, another place to peruse the news on COVID-19:

    https://www.scoop.it/topic/virusworld

    • More fear porn.

      • Don132: More fear porn.

        Like this one? RetroVirox Launches Cell-Based Coronavirus Assays for Evaluation of COVID-19 Vaccines and Therapeutics

        Or this one? The Race for Coronavirus Vaccines: a Graphical Guide

        Maybe this one: What Is ‘Covid Toe’? Maybe a Strange Sign of Coronavirus Infection

        Though this last could be related to other reports of circulatory abnormalities, like unusual clotting.

        Your comment is absurd.

      • matthewrmarler says: “Your comment is absurd.”

        The 1968 Hong Kong flu killed 100,000 in the US and one million worldwide. In 1968, Disneyland had 9.2 millions visitors. Did they close Disneyland for the Hong Kong flu? No, they did not even close Disneyland despite that visitors came from all over the world. Should they have? No. Life goes on. People who didn’t want to mingle at Disneyland would have taken a time-honored approach: they didn’t go.

        When the response and attention to a respiratory virus is wildly overblown despite that this novel coronavirus leaves the majority of its victims with mild symptoms or no symptoms and overwhelmingly preys on the old and frail (like “normal” respiratory viruses), then my judgement, and the judgement of many health professionals who are speaking out against the outrageous “cure,” is that this is fear porn, and Dr. Fauci is the fear-monger-in-chief.

        Humanity lives with viruses, and life goes on. No rational society shuts down for a coronavirus, novel or not. People who didn’t want to be exposed would have taken a time-honored approach anyhow: they wouldn’t go out.

        The heavy hand is made possible by fear porn. Coincidence?

      • Don132 –

        > Dr. Fauci is the fear-monger-in-chief.

        Trump has said his decice action (implementing stay at home measures, shutting down airline travel from China and Europe, etc.) probably saved millions of lives.

        Is he just a pawn of Fauci?

        Or maybe Trump has TDS?

      • Joshua,
        Trump is in over his head, and frankly I don’t pay much attention to what Trump says either way. I don’t buy it that millions of lives were saved. In my opinion, this is just fear porn. If nothing had been done, yes, maybe it’d be like the Hong Kong flu or for that matter any number of respiratory viruses that kill some 5 million each year. But so what? People die. People die of flu. People die of all kinds of things. We deal with it and we keep going. We don’t shut down the world for a bad flu– or at least, no society truly looking after the good of its members shuts down everything for a flu. But, on the other hand a bad flu could be used as an excuse to shut down everything, if shutting down everything were the intent all along (why? is the $64,000 question.) Because otherwise this makes no sense at all.

      • Don Monfort

        So, now you are saying that the bumbling Trump, who messed up everything, was following the advice of his medical/scientific adviser, the diminutive Dr. Doom Fauci-wowci. And bumbling Trump’s actions probably did save millions of lives. Thanks for coming clean, joshie.

        I think I’ve spotted our denizen from Queens, in the crowd. The putz seated right in the middle, back turned, with the flowery t-shirt.

      • Don –

        I don’t know that Trump “messed up everything.”. As I’ve told you before, I think it’s a little hard to say what outcomes would have been better or worse under a different president.

        But I can tell you the following: (1) partially shutting down air travel from China had far less impact than he boasts of. First, it was only partial and a ton of peolle came in without being tested or traced. But there was already community spread, so mostly it was like shutting the barn doors after the horses had gotten out. (2) his constant lying about testing has been harmful, and it’s truly sad that his supporters are such toadies that they aren’t willing to hold him accountable for it, (3), his whole “I saved millions” is absurd spin. The projections of 2 million were for if nothing happened, no social distancing at all, no mask wearing, etc. In other words, it was if a lot of stuff wouldn’t happen thst he had basically nothing to do with. It’s a shame thst his sycophantic supporters just slurp up that nonsense. (4) just at a personal level, it’s sad to see the presidency reduced to nothing other than a constant campaign rally where even during a pandemic the president can’t even pretend to care about anything other than his poll numbers with his base – and his base simply doesn’t care as long as he continues to hate on Jim Acosta.

      • stevenreincarnated

        2 million was just nonsense period and based off model results run with an infected fatality rate an order of magnitude too high. Of course Trump embraces that number because it is way better sounding than saying I listened to my experts and wasted trillions of dollars based on that advice.

    • Tough choice for voters, going for a little more braggadocio or an incoherent, cognitively incapacitated lecher who hits on 14 year old girls.

      Even the Failing New York Times is choking.

  40. How the UK’s testing policy makes their Covid19 numbers meaningless

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/05/02/how-the-uks-testing-policy-makes-their-covid19-numbers-meaningless/

    “PCR tests cannot be relied upon to produce good data. When you combine their use with guidelines instructing doctors to disregard negative results, rely on clinical diagnosis for an incredibly common symptomatic presentation, and re-test thousands of people every day, you have created a perfect storm for misdiagnosis.

    Whether through contrivance, panic or incompetence, Matt Hancock’s much-hyped mass testing plan is potentially little more than a waste of time and resources.”

  41. Another chart review of really sick people receiving HCQ:
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2765633

    In our cohort, close monitoring of patients (including continuous QTc interval monitoring, daily ECGs, and laboratory tests), which led to an interruption of these drugs for 17 patients (42.5%), may have averted further complications, including drug-induced torsades de pointes. Key limitations of the present case series include a potential lack of generalizability beyond the ICU. However, the finding that QTc intervals increased in more than 90% of patients raises concerns about the widespread use of hydroxychloroquine, … .

    In the next study, 10 of 90 patients receiving HCQ had the medication discontinued due to adverse reactions;
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2765631

    Neither study was a randomized clinical trial.

    • Obviously, those experiences dangerous side-effects did so just so they could make Trump look bad.

      TDS explains all.

      • Don –

        >… is safe when adequately monitored.

        So what you’re saying is that it should only be administered when patients can be adequately monitored?

        Does that mean it shouldn’t be widely prescribed as a profylactic?

        Do you have TDS, Don?

    • First retrospective study 40 patients:

      “Hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin was given to 18 (45%) and 22 patients (55%), respectively. Twenty patients (50%) also received other treatments favoring QT prolongation in the ICU (Table). Most patients (37 [93%]) showed an increase in QTc after the administration of antiviral therapy (Figure). Prolonged QTc was observed in 14 patients (36%) (10 with ΔQTc >60 milliseconds and 7 with QTc ≥500 milliseconds) after a duration of antiviral treatment of 2 to 5 days. No ventricular arrhythmia, including torsades de pointes, was recorded. As shown in the Figure, among patients treated with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, 6 of 18 (33%) developed an increase in QTc of 500 milliseconds or greater vs 1 of 22 (5%) of those treated with hydroxychloroquine alone (P = .03). The antiviral treatment ceased before completion for 7 patients (17.5%) following ECG abnormalities and in 10 (25%) for acute renal failure.”

      Key fact:
      “No ventricular arrhythmia, including torsades de pointes, was recorded.”

      QT prolongation does not kill anybody. It can result in ventricular arrhythmia, which if it gets bad enough can result in cardiac arrest, which can result in death. Nobody died from QT prolongation here. We don’t know how many died as a result of 7 seriously ill patients having the antiviral treatment stopped due to QT prolongation. And we don’t know how many of these patients could have been saved, if the antiviral treatment had started well before they were severely ill and on ventilators, with one foot already in the bag.

      Second retrospective study 90 patients:

      “Ten patients (11%) stopped taking hydroxychloroquine prior to day 5 of treatment for QTc prolongation. Possible hydroxychloroquine-associated ADEs included intractable nausea, resolving with medication discontinuation; development of new premature ventricular contractions and right bundle branch block; and a suspected case of hydroxychloroquine-associated hypoglycemia on day 2 of therapy, which was also in the context of poor oral intake. One patient who had hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin discontinued because of QTc prolongation (499 milliseconds) developed torsades de pointes 3 days later (eFigures 2 and 3 in the Supplement) and subsequently developed other ventricular arrhythmias that were treated with lidocaine.”

      Same story as the first study, but one patient experienced ventricular arrythmia, 3 days after treatment, and presumably did not suffer cardiac arrest and did not die from that. Lidocaine seems to have taken care of it. The completed course of antiviral treatment, despite the arrythmia, may have saved this patient.

      What both of these studies indicate is that clinical use of hydroxychloroquine, even in combination with multiple other drugs that can cause QT prolongation, is safe when adequately monitored. Apparently, the medical staff who treated these patients were aware of the possible side effects. Probably, because they know how to read the warnings on the labels.

      Still haven’t seen any evidence that proper treatment with hydroxychloroquine has seriously harmed or killed anybody. Zero.

      • Don Monfort: What both of these studies indicate is that clinical use of hydroxychloroquine, even in combination with multiple other drugs that can cause QT prolongation, is safe when adequately monitored.

        True: when adequately monitored.

        Also the drug was discontinued in some patients due to the adverse reactions.

      • Don, you need to get your mind right.
        HCQ is bad.
        Coronavirus is deadly for everyone.
        Vaccine will cure.
        Must wait, be cautious.
        Fauci is our dear leader.

        Signed,
        Bitter at the Stupidity of It All

      • Don Monfort

        >… is safe when adequately monitored.

        These studies do not address HDQ used outside of a hospital setting. Those of us who are honest and intelligent, would not use this study to justify or disparage use outside a setting where monitoring could be conducted. That is a different issue. Try to catch up.

        The drug as a prophylaxis and post-exposure prophylaxis is being tested in other trials. The dose effective for prophylaxis may be considerably less than that being used for treatment, as is the case with the treatment vs. prophylaxis for malaria. You would not have considered this, before shooting off your mouth. Then there is the consideration of the potential level of effectiveness of HDQ used as a prophylaxis. If it would prevent say 72% of infections in folks taking it, would it be worth whatever risk there is compared to having a lot of people get sick with COVID 19. It must be worth consideration as there are trials going on, that you wouldn’t know about, because you got your head…..

        The bottom line here is, that the hysterical and incessant warnings about the deadly danger posed by HDQ is B.S.

        Now that you have been schooled, do you have any more simple-minded questions? I have personal experience being responsible for dispensing the more “dangerous” chloroquine-primaquine to several hundred people, who never heard of a hospital. Took it myself, for about two years. Never gave much thought to side effects. More important issues than possible QT prolongation, which might lead to arrythmia, which might cause cardiac arrest, which likely would cause death, in the situation we were in.

      • Don Monfort

        “True: when adequately monitored.”

        Which in the case of gazillions of folks taking it for many decades on an outpatient basis for malaria prevention , lupus, RA etc. means going to a doctor, if one is available, if something seems to have gone wrong.

        Bottom line is, that nobody can find a significant number of the gazillions who have actually suffered significant harm from taking the stuff.

        But we can keep harping about the potential dangers, until we are blue in the face. We have a lot of time on our hands and it keeps us busy.

      • Don Monfort: What both of these studies indicate is that clinical use of hydroxychloroquine, even in combination with multiple other drugs that can cause QT prolongation, is safe when adequately monitored. Apparently, the medical staff who treated these patients were aware of the possible side effects. Probably, because they know how to read the warnings on the labels.

        These studies do not address HDQ used outside of a hospital setting. Those of us who are honest and intelligent, would not use this study to justify or disparage use outside a setting where monitoring could be conducted. That is a different issue. Try to catch up.

        Took it myself, for about two years. Never gave much thought to side effects. More important issues than possible QT prolongation, which might lead to arrythmia, which might cause cardiac arrest, which likely would cause death, in the situation we were in.

        Never gave much thought to side effects? What, didn’t read the labels?

        It must be worth consideration as there are trials going on, that you wouldn’t know about, because you got your head…..

        I have written in favor of clinical trials, and I have read the preliminary/leaked/etc reports from some of them. I have not written that all use of HCQ should be prohibited until results of the trials are in. How about you? Are you in favor of clinical trials? Why or why not? “must be worth consideration” is not clearly supportive.

      • Don Monfort

        “Never gave much thought to side effects? What, didn’t read the labels?”

        You are really ridiculous and insulting. I read the labels and I had the training at Brooke Army Hospital, where I attended a crash course in what they called battlefield medicine. Before Trump mentioned chloroquine, nobody gave much thought to POTENTIAL and RARE side effects of a drug that was saving millions of lives, other than to recognize problems if and when they rarely occurred. I never had a problem. Satisfied?

        And asking if I am in favor of clinical trials is just petulant and ignorant.

      • Matthew R Marler

        Don Monfort: You are really ridiculous and insulting.

        sure. whatever

      • Don Monfort

        That’s an improvement.

      • Don,

        I’m not clear why you keep belaboring this.

        Let’s assume hydroxychloroquine is totally safe and actually provides some benefit. That would be great. It might save some lives but there is no indication it is going to rescue us from the catastrumphe or restore the economy.

      • “Let’s assume hydroxychloroquine is totally safe and actually provides some benefit. That would be great. It might save some lives but there is no indication it is going to rescue us from the catastrumphe or restore the economy.”

        India is using HCQ as an early treatment and despite having 1.4 billion people, has far fewer Covid deaths than the US.

        A simple, obvious solution to the HCQ debate is to replicate the clinical experience of Dr. Zelenko. He claims virtually 100% prevention of hospitalization in Covid-positive patients. That’s remarkable. So replicate the practice. That’s all. No double-blind anything: just replicate what he’s done, and give us an answer: yes or no? Note that this protocol is 100% outpatient, 100% early treatment before the disease progresses to the need for hospitalization.

        Think we could do that? Instead we get evasion and obfuscation and fear-mongering over HCQ, as if it’s better to die than try. Am I missing something? Do you mean to tell me that we couldn’t replicate a dirt-simple protocol and get some answers? I find that more astounding than any claims made about HCQ.

      • Don132: So replicate the practice. That’s all. No double-blind anything: just replicate what he’s done, and give us an answer: yes or no?

        Without placebo control, randomization, and blinding you don’t get a yes or no answer. Even in the best of circumstances you may only get tallies of survival rates and incidences of adverse reactions.

        It would be interesting to find out how he treated such a large number of patients without any adverse reactions: all the other studies with proper treatment and [adequate monitoring] have reported discontinuing HCQ on a few patients due to adverse reactions (even the widely cited French study, a point which was noted in published critiques).

      • “Without placebo control, randomization, and blinding you don’t get a yes or no answer. Even in the best of circumstances you may only get tallies of survival rates and incidences of adverse reactions.”

        When we first heard of Dr. Zelenko’s results, that’s when we should have said to 100 doctors, OK, you try this protocol exactly as described and report back. Because, you see, I’m told this is an emergency situation, and Zelenko has made extraordinary claims (backed up by others) and it’d be important to know the answer to at least one question: is Zelenko whistling in the dark?

        Rigorous clinical trials take many months if not years to finish.

        Do not mistake me as supporting Zelenko; that’s not my point. My point is why in heck hasn’t anyone done the simplest thing in the world: replicate the practice, see if you get the same results, and you will, indeed, get an answer that you can work with.

        I’m 100% unconvinced of the need for clinical trials in a state of emergency before we can get off our butts and do something.

      • I’ve seen the speculation on Covid attacking hemoglobin and I have no comment. Maybe, maybe not.

      • Don Monfort

        I am not belaboring anything, jimmy. Just correcting willful ignorance. A lot of misinformed jokers keep raising the alarm about the alleged deadliness of hydroxychloroquine, but they got no dead people to present as examples, except the aquarium poison victim of his wife’s suspect beverage preparation.

        There is a trial with over 1200 patients that will conclude soon. They are testing HDQ as a prophylaxis and post exposure prophylaxis. The end point is to discover whether or not HDQ can reduce the infection rate compared with the control group by 50%. I interpret interim results as very encouraging. If HDQ were a new drug and owned by Co. XYZ, I would be buying XYZ stock by the tons. If that happens, do you think it would significantly help us out? This is an intelligence test.

      • Don and Don,

        I’m in favor of a trial or even something less elaborate like having a couple of doctors do what he did. But we need good information about the trial. Zelenko’s data is too sketchy. What were the age ranges and pre-existing conditions? What were the adverse results? There almost has to be some of those too even if the combo therapy is the best thing out there. Do we know 100% for sure even patient actually had COVID-19? What range of symptoms? All of this is lacking in Zelenko’s own report unless there is something with more detail I haven’t seen.

      • Don Monfort

        jimmy and jimmy,
        We have discussed the lack of information in Zelenko’s claims. The significance of his treatments is not much, in the grand scheme of things. There are many other reasons why, as of my last look at Clinical Trials dot gov yesterday, the World is conducting 104 clinical trials on hydroxycholoroquine and COVID 19.

        You didn’t answer my question. Should I be kind and give you an incomplete? Do you have an excuse?

      • “But we need good information about the trial. Zelenko’s data is too sketchy. What were the age ranges and pre-existing conditions? What were the adverse results? ”

        Good Lord, the conditions for giving HCQ are spelled out in simple yet clear detail: do it. Test for Covid. Then get a simple answer: disease progression to hospitalization, yes or no? Adverse effects, what are they?

        Zelenko said that for ALL patients, all age ranges, those positive for Covid were given the treatment protocol early with excellent results: not even hospitalizations ensued. Very minor adverse effects.

        Yes, we know Zelenko’s data is sketchy, but the actual protocol is not: so just do it and test it and get it over with so that people can stop saying oh we don’t know oh maybe oh we’re not sure oh maybe adverse effects, etc., etc., etc. This isn’t rocket science, and is in fact a practical and quick way to answer a very simple question: is Zelenko full of BS, or what?

        I’m astounded that in a world-wide emergency that has literally shut down the entire world economy we haven’t bothered to check to see if one doctor’s treatment protocol is something showing promise. Instead we’re hemming and hawing and saying oh gee maybe we should wait for clinical trials even if those trials give the treatment too late and to hospitalized patients (no!) and we just can’t handle this so, OK, we shut down the economy but we’re so confused and scared.

        What in God’s name is wrong with us?? You’d think that the idea is to keep people scared and confused instead of working on eliminating or confirming a potential treatment option. This is idiocy.

      • Too many red flags on this one.

        Some points to consider:

        It’s unclear if 669 patients even exist in the areas he’s practicing. Zelenko gave some geographical statistics from an early claim of roughly 500 patients treated. 350 are from small city of Kiryas Joel, while the other 150 live nearby in the Monsey area.[2] There were 10 confirmed cases in Kiryas Joel at the time of his announcement .[3] While it is true that some cases might not be reported to the state, this is both a shockingly high prevalence-higher even than Riker’s Island,[4] a natural breeding ground for the disease which has been described as a public health catastrophe -and really severe under-reporting. To believe his numbers, you have to believe that people diagnosed with a highly infectious, potentially fatal disease don’t tell anybody – not the state, not their rabbis, not anybody who would leave a record. Orange county officials have said that after an early spike, the prevalence in Kiryas Joel is similar to that of Orange County overall, [5] which would likely leave him with a few dozen potential patients at most in early -mid March when the study occurred.
        How did he find all the patients he claims then?

        He believes nearly everybody in Kiryas Joel has COVID-19. The 669 patients is only the people he has treated. Dr. Zelenko thinks there is much more are out there. He is on record that as saying that 90% of the city of Kiryas Joel is infected after a couple of tests came back positive and then extrapolating based on his view of viral dynamics. [6] This claim on such thin evidence earned him a formal reprimand both from the city of Kiryas Joel and the Orange County Health Commissioner:[7]
        “We the undersigned institutions strongly believe that the predictions presented by Dr. Zelenko have been proven false and are not supported by the overall medical establishment, specifically in his wild conclusions as to the spread of the virus in our community,”

        He does not test for COVID-19 before treating. Dr. Zelenko gave up testing after these first few positive results. He now diagnoses based solely on his clinical judgement, which leads to a vicious circle- it is probably the disease because the disease is everywhere and we know the disease is everywhere because we keep diagnosing it.
        What does this mean?

        He most likely has a 100% cure rate because he is treating mostly healthy people. There are no control groups or anything else normally associated with medical studies. If the people get well, the treatment works. This is good idea but if the people are healthy already , how can you claim the medicine works?

        https://www.quora.com/Is-there-any-evidence-that-Dr-Vladimir-Zelenko-has-cured-699-patients-of-COVID-19-with-Hydroxchloroquine-and-Zinc-sulfate

      • Don132: I’m 100% unconvinced of the need for clinical trials in a state of emergency before we can get off our butts and do something.

        the FrontlineCOVID19ClinicalCare Working Group updated protocol has a lot of other stuff other than HCQ (e.g. vitamin C). It isn’t the case that anyone is waiting for clinical trials before they do anything, or that anyone is advocating such. But the medical community is split on the issue of whether HCQ is effective.

        The longer the clinical trials would be postponed (several are underway), the longer the uncertainty (including ignorance of known and unknown unknowns) about its benefits and risks would continue.

      • “The longer the clinical trials would be postponed (several are underway), the longer the uncertainty (including ignorance of known and unknown unknowns) about its benefits and risks would continue.”

        Yes, I understand, and my question is specifically on the lack of any preliminary assessment of the Zelenko protocol. For example, if a doctor came out and said he/she had 100% cure rate with remdesiver used in a specific protocol, wouldn’t it make sense to organize some 100 doctors to give this exact protocol to patients to confirm or deny those results, before even getting to the stage of clinical trials, in light of a grave emergency? The key point you might be missing is that supposedly we’re in a grave emergency that requires a world-wide lockdown, in which case some sort of organized assessment of clinical experience prior to clinical trials would be headlights in the dark.

        But, in my view the only real emergency we’re having is one of unrelenting fear porn, and no one in power (not the people who are in front of the cameras; they’re just parroting what’s been scripted) is really interested in any remedy anyhow. That would defeat the justification for the lockdown.

      • Don132 –

        > But, in my view the only real emergency we’re having is one of unrelenting fear porn, and no one in power (not the people who are in front of the cameras; they’re just parroting what’s been scripted) is really interested in any remedy anyhow. That would defeat the justification for the lockdown.

        Why is Trump trying to justify the lockdown?

      • “Why is Trump trying to justify the lockdown?”
        This is what he’s told to do. This is what he’s been convinced to do. But, my views are apolitical in the sense that I’m neither left nor right. I’m not pumping for Trump. Or Biden either, for that matter.

      • Don132: The key point you might be missing is that supposedly we’re in a grave emergency that requires a world-wide lockdown, in which case some sort of organized assessment of clinical experience prior to clinical trials would be headlights in the dark.

        That would be in the clinical trial IRB proposals, which have to detail expected benefits and risks, and plans for handling adverse reactions and possible early terminations if the outcome is clear much earlier than expected. That a large number of clinical trials are underway reflects the judgment of those IRBs that current evidence is insufficient.

        For those not familiar with this term, IRB is for Institutional Review Board, which has to approve any new research proposal for ethical justification and conformance with law.

        As to Zelenko and HCQ, an organized assessment of his work is not possible without a detailed chart review of all his patients, including their ages and viral titers when treatment started. To date his reporting is too skimpy for a reasonable assessment.

        As I noted elsewhere, the current FrontLineCOVID19 Working Group protocol does not include HCQ; presumably their assessment of currently available evidence is that there is insufficient evidence to justify its use. They also have published detailed reports of their clinical experience, only that it works really well if started early.

      • Don Monfort

        Dr. Zelenko’s activities were a trial of a sort. He gave hydroxychloroquine willy nilly to hundreds of patients not hooked up to EKGs and apparently none of them croaked. Success. Dr. Zelenko has proven that you can’t kill folks with hydroxychloroquine, even if you are just marginally competent and only half-sane.

    • The latest Montfort Syndrome victim :

      https://www.thedailybeast.com/fda-cautions-against-use-of-hydroxychloroquine-outside-of-hospital

      The hype surrounding potential treatment drugs has already resulted in one American death. Last week, a New York woman with COVID-19 symptoms died after her family said a doctor prescribed her hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin without officially diagnosing her with the virus or testing if she had heart problems.

      “Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine can cause abnormal heart rhythms such as QT interval prolongation and a dangerously rapid heart rate called ventricular tachycardia,” the FDA said in its Friday warning. “These risks may increase when these medicines are combined with other medicines known to prolong the QT interval, including the antibiotic azithromycin, which is also being used in some COVID-19 patients without FDA approval for this condition. Patients who also have other health issues such as heart and kidney disease are likely to be at increased risk of these heart problems when receiving these medicines.”

      The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also pulled back on its guidance for using hydroxychloroquine to treat infected patients, and a National Institutes of Health panel of experts said doctors should not use hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to treat the illness, stating there was not enough evidence to support the use of the potent drug.

      • This is BS Russell and you know it. With any therapy even the best, there will be some who die from side effects. A single anecdotal example has zero relevance to anything. Even someone like you with no qualifications in medicine should realize this.

        There is no harm in monitoring those being treated of course, but it still seems to me that if these side effects were common they would have shown up in the millions being treated with HDCQ sometimes for decades.

        The “hype” had nothing to do with this either. MD’s are making their own decisions based on their experience.

      • Don Monfort

        my comment went to moderation, or somewhere
        I won’t bother
        He get’s lonely on his impostor blog and comes here to poke the deniers with his little stick. Minor annoyance.

  42. this one might be “Fear Porn”:
    View at Medium.com

  43. Robert Clark

    DATE NEW CASES INCREASE % # TESTS
    4/24/2020 39,887 7,763 24.1 465,986
    4/25/2020 36,342 -3,545 -8.8 251,263
    4/26/2020 39,806 3,462 9.5 256,441
    4/27/2020 23,095 -16,711 -41.9 216,029
    28-Apr 22,840 -255 -1.1 179,755
    4/29/2020 29,025 6,185 27 259,856
    4/30/2020 28,117 -908 -3.1 194,323
    5/1/2020 30,093 1,979 7 83,643
    5/2/2020 34,907 4,814 15.9 286,500
    5/3/2020 31,150 -3,757 10.7 226,292
    We are back treading water. They say they have all the tests they need. They are not increasing the number of tests.To put it bluntly, we spent the last 2 months self isolating and they are now throwing away all we did!!!
    At least they will be back to work in a couple of weeks and we can expect the debt to go up another couple of trillion dollars.
    NEVER LET A CRISIS GO TO WASTE

  44. Over the entire scare, the colorado tests and positives. This was always an estimator for the harsher covid cases, and appeared to track things quite well. The red line is the percent of positives, i.e. the number of very sick paranoid people who were sick of covid.
    However, we do not know the proportion of those people in the population, nor do we know how many covid cases are completely symptomatic.
    https://postimg.cc/CzsszGzf

  45. infected but asymptomatic meat processors:
    https://www.wishtv.com/news/national/more-than-370-workers-at-a-pork-plant-in-missouri-tested-positive-for-coronavirus/

    Another small convenience sample, unrepresentative of the whole.

    Remember, always cook pork fully. And chicken, and hamburger.

  46. rather full report on the Manaus study of high dose vs low dose chloroquine diphosphate:

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2765499

    dated April 24, so not really new.

  47. Robert Clark

    DATE NEW CASES INCREASE % # TESTS
    4/24/2020 39,887 7,763 24.1 465,986
    4/25/2020 36,342 -3,545 -8.8 251,263
    4/26/2020 39,806 3,462 9.5 256,441
    4/27/2020 23,095 -16,711 -41.9 216,029
    28-Apr 22,840 -255 -1.1 179,755
    4/29/2020 29,025 6,185 27 259,856
    4/30/2020 28,117 -908 -3.1 194,323
    5/1/2020 30,093 1,979 7 83,643
    5/2/2020 34,907 4,814 15.9 286,500
    5/3/2020 31,150 3,757 10.7 226,292
    5/4/2020 27,923 -3,227 10.3 286,179
    Look at the above. The 24th they did 465,986 tests. The next 2 days show a significant increase in positive also. I believe that is because they are including results of the slow tests of the 24th.
    Now they have the fast tests. What would it look like if they did a half million tests for 4 straight days?
    More tests and we can clean things up quickly and open safely.

    • We were treading water at about 30,000 virus infected removed to self-isolation and the same on the other end that has completed their 14-day isolation and killed the virus. 14 x 30,000 = 420,000 individuals were infected. That is why we must keep increasing testing. We must do our part and nature will do her part. MORE TESTS!!!

  48. Frontline COVID-19 Critical Care Consortium:A group of critical care physicians representing the University of Tennessee, the University of Wisconsin, Eastern Virginia Medical School, the University of Texas and a number of other institutions have formed the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Consortium and released a bulletin setting out a recommended treatment protocol.

    Click to access Treating_Covid-19_in_ER_2_-_April_6_2020_final.pdf

    • “Frontline COVID-19 Critical Care Consortium:A group of critical care physicians representing the University of Tennessee, the University of Wisconsin, Eastern Virginia Medical School, the University of Texas and a number of other institutions have formed the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Consortium and released a bulletin setting out a recommended treatment protocol. ”

      You know, I’ve been promoting Marik’s use of vitamin C for a long time, maybe not so much here (I lose track) but with another group I’m involved in, and I was laughed out of town and told I was spreading misinformation. And amazingly, HCQ is on the treatment protocol, too.

    • Dated a month ago. What has the reaction been? What is their follow-up analysis?

      • Joshua: Dated a month ago. What has the reaction been? What is their follow-up analysis?

        Yeh — I put it up anyway because I had not heard of it before. Good questions to look into next.

      • “Dated a month ago. What has the reaction been? What is their follow-up analysis?
        ….
        “Yeh — I put it up anyway because I had not heard of it before. Good questions to look into next.”

        And likely you’re not going to hear of this anymore, just like you’re not going to hear any more about the Zelenko protocol. These aren’t part of “the program,” whatever that is, but what it is not an objective look at all the facts.

        We don’t want to hear anything about vitamin C. If we hear anything about vitamin C, then we’re going to “test” this just as we tested vitamin C in the VITAMINS trial, and the result was a big fat zero. Of course, we purposely treated too late because the goal in the first place was to prove that a vitamin couldn’t be used for therapy for anything, ever, because that’s what pharmaceuticals are for.

        Even if you had remarkable clinical results, as Dr. Marik has claimed in his treatment of classical ARDS (vs Covid “ARDS”) with vitamin C that doesn’t mean a thing and you’re not going to hear about it. Even if vitamin C saves lives.

        However, if you hear about remdesiver cutting hospital stays by so many days, that you’ll hear about.

      • Don132 –

        Apparently fairly widespread use in NY had no significant results. For some odd reason they’re not reporting their results widely yet – although they said they would – but state officials are saying they had no significant results.

        Do you think they’re in on the conspiracy?

      • “Apparently fairly widespread use in NY had no significant results. For some odd reason they’re not reporting their results widely yet – although they said they would – but state officials are saying they had no significant results.”

        Well, let’s see these results. And why in the world would they not report results widely?

        I’m OK with it not working. I want to see something more definitive than treating bed-ridden people too late and nebulous unreported results.

      • Matthew R Marler

        they are still around:https://covid19criticalcare.com/

        I don’t see detailed clinical reports

  49. Roger Knights

    “8 Possible Reasons for the Huge International Differences in COVID-19 Deaths: For each plausible theory, there are puzzling counterexamples.”
    JACOB SULLUM | 5.4.2020 2:30 PM

    https://reason.com/2020/05/04/8-possible-reasons-for-the-huge-international-differences-in-covid-19-deaths/?utm_medium=email

  50. Roger Knights

    “The stroke virus? Covid causes hundreds of microclots throughout the lungs (and everywhere else)
    “Could a mass clotting event explain the excess death rate, the hypoxia, the delirium”

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/the-stroke-virus-covid-causes-hundreds-of-microclots-throughout-the-lungs-and-everywhere-else/

    • nobodysknowledge

      “The child inflammation virus?”
      “A pediatric multi-system inflammatory syndrome, recently reported by authorities in the United Kingdom,is also being observed among children and young adults in New York City and elsewhere in the United States. Clinical features vary, depending on the affected organ system, but have been noted to include features of Kawasaki disease or features of shock; however, the full spectrum of disease is not yet known. Persistent fever and elevated inflammatory markers (CRP, troponin, etc.) have been seen among affected patients. Patients with this syndrome who have been admitted to pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) have required cardiac and/or respiratory support. Only severe cases may have been recognized at this time.”

  51. nobodysknowledge

    Great difference between countries when they count their dead.
    In Netherlands 48% of excess deaths are ascribed to COVID-19, in Belgium 93%.
    To look at excess deaths seems to be the methodological best number. “Researchers are narrowing in on a figure called “excess deaths” as a more reliable measure that can give insight into the true scale of the pandemic. The idea is to take the previous year’s deaths as a baseline and use the difference in deaths this year over the last as a more accurate metric of the virus’ impact. This way, researchers can capture fatalities that slipped through the cracks.”
    “POLITICO has looked at how a number of European countries approach this question, placing each in one of three categories: those that use a narrow definition; those that take a more mixed approach; and those with a broad definition. We then compared their methodology with the discrepancy between their official COVID-19 death count and excess mortality.”
    ttps://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-the-challenge-of-counting-covid-19-deaths/

    • nobodysknowledge

      But that assumes that all excess deaths are equal. There were a great many excess deaths in 2014 and 2017 due to a bad flu season, but they then dropped out of the figures, so counting excess deaths the next year would show a sharp drop (unless there had been another flu epidemic.)

      looking at the figures over a complete year is probably fairer, as that will show up those who died of other causes due to a fixation on tackling CV. It will also highlight a lack of deaths in other categories including flu (because of social distancing/avoiding crowds) murders and car accidents

      tonyb

      • Tonyb
        One should go back 3-5 years at least to account for variations in deaths by flu and other causes. As of now, Covid 19 a major cause of reduction in deaths by cancer, heart attacks and flu. Not sure if they still count auto accident deaths as Covid 19 if antibodies present in blood.
        Scott

    • nobodysknowledge

      From Financial Time, April 26th.
      The death toll from coronavirus may be almost 60 per cent higher than reported in official counts, according to an Financial Times analysis of overall fatalities during the pandemic in 14 countries.
      Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across these locations, considerably higher than the 77,000 official Covid-19 deaths reported for the same places and time periods.
      https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

    • nobodysknowledge

      In the analysis from Financial Times it is only the bad flu season of 2014 which dropped out. I don`t think it makes a big difference.
      “To calculate excess deaths, the FT has compared deaths from all causes in the weeks of a location’s outbreak in March and April 2020 to the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019.”

    • nobodysknowledge

      From FT: “Even the much higher numbers of deaths in the pandemic suggested by excess mortality statistics are likely to be conservative, as lockdowns mean that “mortality from numerous conditions such as traffic accidents and occupational injuries possibly went down”, said Markéta Pechholdová, assistant professor of demography at the University of Economics, Prague.”
      A confirmation of this we can see in Finland, Norway, Hungary and Greece, with negative excess mortality numbers. Perhaps mostly because of few deaths from flu.

    • when this is all said and done, Covid-19 is going to be the most accurately counted flu in history.
      Raise your hand if you are aware of any widespread accurate testing for the flu prior to this year. In past years, if you were sick and it wasn’t strep, your doctor just said “you probably have the flu”.
      Yes, they did some testing, but never at this level.

      • Part of the reason why all these comparisons to the flu IFR are misleading…

      • yes. Deaths from flu in past years are drastically undercounted.
        The Washington Post recently reported that “excess deaths”- those above “normal” were about 36,000 in the US. It will be interesting to see how that compares to a bad flu year.

        FWIW- I think “reopen” will be very different than pre-covid and more like Sweden-style “open.’

      • > yes. Deaths from flu in past years are drastically undercounted.

        It’s not do much that flu deaths are undercounted that’s the issue, so much as it’s that the comparison is frought.

        It isn’t only the deaths that are undercounted, but so are the cases of the flu – probably far more so (orders of magnitude?)

        People are effectively comparing the CFR of the flu to the IFR of COVID – often to reinforce the inane but politically expedient claim that COVID is “just like the seasonal flu.”

      • Joshua, IFR’s for flu are based on limited data from random population samples and are not just “guesses.”

        The latest serological study out of Denmark shows IFR’s of 0.08% among healthy individuals under 70, i.e., among blood donors.

        The best data from Miami Dade shows 0.17% to 0.31% where I took number of deaths as of 21 days after the averaged testing date (which probably overestimates the actual number substantially). This is entirely consistent with the much maligned (by unqualified statisticians) Santa Clara and Los Angeles studies.

        The evidence is growing that covid19 is comparable to the flu without a vaccine. Why do you keep waltzing around this science? It’s getting into merchants of doubt territory I’m afraid.

  52. If someone has taken chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine, use the webPOISONCONTROL® online tool for guidance or call Poison Control at 1-800-222-1222.

  53. More evidence virus moving into rural America.

    “While non-metro areas currently have fewer coronavirus cases per capita, both cases and deaths are growing at a faster rate compared to metro counties (Figure 2). In the two-week period between April 13 and April 27, non-metro counties saw a 125% increase in coronavirus cases (from 51 cases per 100,000 people to 115), on average, and a 169% increase in deaths (from 1.6 deaths per 100,000 people to 4.4). Meanwhile, metro counties saw a 68% increase in cases (from 195 cases per 100,000 people to 328) and a 113% increase in deaths (from 8.0 deaths per 100,000 people to 17.0).”

    https://www.kff.org/other/issue-brief/covid-19-in-rural-america-is-there-cause-for-concern/

  54. Robert Clark

    DATE NEW CASES INCREASE % # TESTS
    4/24/2020 39,887 7,763 24.1 465,986
    4/25/2020 36,342 -3,545 -8.8 251,263
    4/26/2020 39,806 3,462 9.5 256,441
    4/27/2020 23,095 -16,711 -41.9 216,029
    28-Apr 22,840 -255 -1.1 179,755
    4/29/2020 29,025 6,185 27 259,856
    4/30/2020 28,117 -908 -3.1 194,323
    5/1/2020 30,093 1,979 7 83,643
    5/2/2020 34,907 4,814 15.9 286,500
    5/3/2020 31,150 -3,757 -10.7 226,292
    5/4/2020 27,923 -3,227 -10.3 286,179
    5/5/2020 20,731 -7,192 -25.7 319,275

  55. Poszukiwałem odpowiedniego tematu na froum judithcurry.com do jakieś autopromocji i uznałem za dobry ten. Wybaczcie jeśli nie można.

    Poszukujesz solidnej spółki doręczycielskiej, która poradzi sobie z dostarczeniem Twojej paczki do Rumunii? Jeżeli odpowiedziałeś twierdząco, to nasza oferta jest dla Ciebie. Jesteśmy ekspertami w prędkim dotransportowaniem przesyłek. Nawet po 48 godzinach od momentu nadania, Twoja paczka zostanie przewieziona do celu. Dzięki profesjonalnym wtyczkom powiążesz naszego dostawcę z popularnymi serwisami sklepów internetowych. Dzięki temu zaoszczędzisz na czasie. Dodatkowo w przypadku zwrotu posiadamy adres magazynowy w Rumunii, gdzie zostanie przetrzymana Twoja przesyłka. Nie powinieneś się już przejmować, że uiścisz nadprogramowe pieniądze za zwrot, ponieważ jest to usługa całkowicie darmowa! Kolejnym ułatwieniem, które stworzyliśmy dla naszych klientów, to możliwość poboru paczek w dwóch walutach: polskich złotych oraz rumuńskich lejach. Stawiamy potężny akcent na bezpieczeństwo przesyłek. W ten sposób wiesz, że paczka dotrze do adresata kompletna. W naszej flocie mamy nowoczesne rodzaje aut, które wypełniają wszystkie wymogi bezpieczeństwa. W naszej kadrze mamy rzetelnych kierowców, którzy na drogach spędzili wiele godzin. Takie doświadczenie powoduje, że pod ich okiem przesyłka jest całkowicie bezpieczna.

    https://paczkidorumunii.wordpress.com/2019/09/07/dlaczego-powinienes-rozszerzyc-swoj-biznes-o-rumunie/

    • I think it says something about shipping penguins and cabbages to Romania. Cheap and reliable. Must be for joshie.

  56. Matthew R Marler
  57. Matthew R Marler

    On the first 5 days of April, the rates of increase in the count of dead due to COVID-19 were 38%, 19% 18% 16%, and 13%; median = 18% (1321 newly dead).

    On the first 5 days of May, the rates of increase in the count of dead were
    3.0%, 2.6%, 1.7% 1.6% 3.4%; median = 2.6% (1691 newly dead).

    On April 1 the accumulated count of dead was 5102; on May 1 the accumulated count of dead was 65,753. That is a death count for April of about 65,000. The numbers are from worldometers.com, with all caveats that we have discussed.

    • That’s for USA only.

    • Matthew –

      My guess is that the April vs. May comparisons in rates of increase in deaths reflects, mostly, the state of the trend in NYC, or maybe NY State/CT/NJ at the beginning of those months, respectively. My impression is that in other parts of the country, aggregated, the rate of deaths is increasing faster in May than it was in April.

    • Seems like 65,753 – 5,102 should be closer to 60,000 than 65,000. Maybe the discrepancy is covered in the caveats. Just joshin ya, matt.

  58. > Black Americans represent just 13.4% of the American population, according to the US Census Bureau, but account for more than half of all Covid-19 cases and almost 60% of deaths, the study found.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/05/health/coronavirus-african-americans-study/index.html

    Two big pieces that get lost in the clamor from openists: (1) the magnitude of impact on the heroes on the front lines and (2) the disparate impact in association with SES and ethnicity/race.

    • That’s not surprising and is irrelevant to anything. Blacks as a group are much more likely to be obese and diabetes. This is a cultural issue and not a “disadvantaged” issue.

      The impact on the heros on the front line is real but its part of the job they signed up for. Physicians and nurses are generally well paid and knew the risks when they signed up.

      Policy needs to be guided by minimizing overall harm, not on politically correct biases and emotions.

      • > That’s […] irrelevant to anything

        Classic. The people who are deciding to “open” should just ignore who is the affected. Even when those peple who are most affected are risking their lives to care for the ill and enabling those most vulnerable to stay safe (minorities are disproportionately represented among essential workers).

        You’re certainly entitled to integrate your value system into your judgements, David. And I can do so also. I happen to think that the welfare of people risking their lives to benefit others deserves special consideration – and that disproportionate impact on those most vulnerable is also not “irrelevantt.”

        Yiure entitled to think it’s irrelevant, your not entitled to determine what is an isn’t irrelevant. Amazing that has to be explained to you.

      • > Physicians and nurses are generally well paid and knew the risks when they signed up.

        Intersting that you apparently aren’t even aware of who comprise the front line workers, and haven’t even checked, and yet feel in a position to make these judgements?

        Why would you be making such judgements from a place of ignorance?

        > According to an Associated Press analysis of Census data of the United States’ top 100 largest cities, it’s a reality that falls unequally across demographics. It’s mostly women, people of color, immigrants, and those in lower socioeconomic classes serving on the front lines of this pandemic.

        https://www.11alive.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/who-are-our-workers-on-the-front-lines/85-64a1235e-a2e5-4242-8d6b-9ac36afccd5a

      • Don –

        > “openists” by definition uncaring of heroes and raycists?

        Why do you think so, Don?

        I think that those most affected, and those who are absorbing the greatest risk at the benefit and welfare of others, deserve special consideration.

        You’re entitled not to. Youre entitled to think that those who are at the most risk, at the benefit for others, don’t deserve special consideration. That doesn’t make you a racist, it only makes you one of those who think that those most at risk, for the benefit of others, don’t deserve special consideration.

        The main problem, imo, is that those who are in power to make the decisions are not proportionately representsrice of those who are most at risk at the benefit of others.

        I suspect that if the proportions ran in the other direction, those in power to make the decisions would be making different decisions.

        What do you think, Don?

      • I see the old Josh is back. Fact free rants that play on emotions, not substance.

      • This becomes a parody. New York Times says that an asteroid will hit earth next week. Women and minorities hardest hit!!

        It’s a tired political ploy of those who want the government to help their favorite people and not the other guy. Unless Josh you can show you actually have sacrificed something personally to help these people you seem to think are more important, you are just a typical “cheap compassion” arm chair advocate.

      • David –
        > Blacks as a group are much more likely to be obese and diabetes.

        I’ll also point out that it’s not just higher rates of death and morbidity from COVID among blacks that’s at issue here. It’s also simply the higher rates of infection not just among blacks but minorities in general.

        https://missionlocal.org/2020/05/preliminary-results-of-mission-covid-tests-show-95-percent-of-positive-cases-were-latinx/

        Yes, David, minorities means more than just blacks. Imagine that.

        Now you’re certainly entitled to consider the disparate impact for minorities (and all frontline workers and all essential workers) as “irrelevant.” I don’t but, before coming to your conclusion you should at least familiarize yourself with the facts, and try to enlarge your thinking on the issue so you don’t just jump to conclusions that fit your ideological agenda.

      • I’m fully aware of the facts joshie. Generally, the wealthy have fared better throughout human history than the poor. All your virtue signaling and long winded fact free musings will not change this iron law.

    • Very interesting:”that get lost in the clamor from openists”

      Is “openists” the current left loon pejorative for folks who want to restart the crashing economy and resume living halfway normal lives? Are “openists” by definition uncaring of heroes and raycists?

      Think about what you are doing here and get back to us in about a week.

    • David –

      > Blacks as a group are much more likely to be obese and diabetes. This is a cultural issue and not a “disadvantaged” issue.

      That’s part of the reason for the disparity.

      But your weakness in analytical skills are showing, perhaps just your ignorance. A big part of the reason is a simple situation of numbers. Minorities comprise a disproportionate % of frontline workers and essential workers. Another reason that they have poorer health outcomes has to do with lack of insurance and lack of access to healthcare. Compare healthcare outcomes in this country to healthcare outcomes in other countries and you will see a larger disparity in outcome in association with income level – irrespective of race and/or ethnicity.

      • You know Josh you are such a prime example of bias. You failed to mention that the economic damage from the shutdown also is vastly higher for minorities, many of whom are already starting to miss payments and risk losing their homes or being evicted.

        Middle class guys like you have money saved to tide you over. The “disadvantaged” do not. If you were not a hypocrite you would be volunteering to pay your poor neighbors rent.

      • David –

        > You know Josh you are such a prime example of bias. You failed to mention that the economic damage from the shutdown also is vastly higher for minorities, many of whom are already starting to miss payments and risk losing their homes or being evicted.

        Of course it is. That’s why I think we should have policies to address that impact.

        I certainly wouldn’t call it “irrelevant” as you deem the disparate impact to them in terms of health outcomes.

        Quite the opposite. I think it’s extremely relevant.

        The issue with disparate economic impact is not simply a function of the government mandates. They would be disparately impacted economically as the result of the pandemic either way. Yes, the mandates are exacerbating that problem – but likely while also reducing the magnitude of the health impacts of not the level of disparity.

        That’s the problem with much of the openists rhetoric: it’s based on the inane notion that the negative economic impact of the pandemic is simply a function of the mandates. As if millions of infections, tens of thousands of people dying, hundreds of thousands being hospitalized and getting seriously ill, and a wildly infectious virus circulating throughout society wouldn’t have an enormous economic impact absent the mamdates!

        Unreal.

    • “…the disparate impact in association with SES and ethnicity/race.”

      The openists also notice the disparate impact on Black Americans of the cures.

      Not having a job is for your own good. This is an old argument.

      • Ragnar –

        > The openists also notice the disparate impact on Black Americans of the cures

        So do the closers. But notice here that our resident openists are saying the disparate impact of the disease is “irrelevant.”

        No closists say that about the impact of the cure. They say let’s develop policies to address that impact. Exactly the opposite.

        Bottom line – people developing policy should be representative of the public. They aren’t.

  59. RESULTS:Data from trials published between 1982 and July 2016 were included. A total of 177 trials met the inclusion criteria. 35,448 participants received quinoline antimalarials in these trials, of which 18,436 participants underwent ECG evaluation. Subjects with co-medication use or comorbidities including cardiovascular disease were excluded from the majority of trials. Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine was the drug most studied (5083 participants). Despite enormous use over the past 60 years, only 1076, 452, and 150 patients had ECG recordings reported in studies of chloroquine, amodiaquine, and primaquine respectively. Transiently high concentrations of quinine, quinidine, and chloroquine following parenteral administration have all been associated with hypotension, but there were no documented reports of death or syncope attributable to a cardiovascular cause, nor of electrocardiographic recordings of ventricular arrhythmia in these trials. The large volume of missing outcome information and the heterogeneity of ECG interval reporting and measurement methodology did not allow pooled quantitative analysis of QT interval changes. CONCLUSIONS:No serious cardiac adverse effects were recorded in malaria clinical trials of 35,548 participants who received quinoline and structurally related antimalarials with close follow-up including 18,436 individuals who underwent ECG evaluation. While these findings provide further evidence of the rarity of serious cardiovascular events after treatment with these drugs, they also underscore the need for continued strengthening of pharmacovigilance systems for robust detection of rare drug adverse events in real-world populations. A standardised approach to measurement and reporting of ECG data in malaria trials is also needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION:PROSPERO CRD42016036678.

    https://europepmc.org/article/pmc/pmc6220451

  60. Expecting interim report on the Univ. of Minn. PEP trial of hydroxychhloquin as prophylactic. Seems like they have stopped recruitment for the PEP arm (blue bar chart), shortly after reporting that they would be able to reduce the number of patients.

    https://covidpep.umn.edu/updates

  61. One reason the US has high case loads:

    travel is still relatively free and open:

  62. Robert Clark

    DATE NEW CASES INCREASE % # TESTS
    4/24/2020 39,887 7,763 24.1 465,986
    4/25/2020 36,342 -3,545 -8.8 251,263
    4/26/2020 39,806 3,462 9.5 256,441
    4/27/2020 23,095 -16,711 -41.9 216,029
    28-Apr 22,840 -255 -1.1 179,755
    4/29/2020 29,025 6,185 27 259,856
    4/30/2020 28,117 -908 -3.1 194,323
    5/1/2020 30,093 1,979 7 83,643
    5/2/2020 34,907 4,814 15.9 286,500
    5/3/2020 31,150 -3,757 -10.7 226,292
    5/4/2020 27,923 -3,227 -10.3 286,179
    5/5/2020 20,731 -7,192 -25.7 319,275
    5/6/2020 25,355 4,634 22.6 252,926
    We are getting to a point where the testing % positive is 10% positive or lower. than total testing for country.
    I suggest the states be rated by testing % positive
    3% or higher massive testing. heavy testing.
    1% to 3% testing.
    less than 1% sampling.

  63. The capo di tutti of the Cuomo-De Blasio syndicate is shocked to find stay-at-homes majority getting the CV:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

  64. Harry Read Me anyone?

    Ferguson is an incompetent.

    https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/

  65. Roger Knights

    New CRISPR Coronavirus Test Could Be a Pandemic ‘Game-Changer’
    Cheap accurate testing would enable the safe reopening of the U.S. economy.
    RONALD BAILEY | 5.6.2020 3:00 PM

    The researchers have created molecular tags that latch onto sections of viral genes and emit a signal when their presence is detected. The new STOPCovid  https://www.stopcovid.science/ test enables the detection of as few as 100 copies of the coronavirus in a sample. “As a result, the STOPCovid test allows for rapid, accurate, and highly sensitive detection of Covid-19 that can be conducted outside clinical laboratory settings,” note the researchers. The test initially used standard nasal swab samples, but preliminary data suggest that it will work using much more easily collected saliva samples.

    The research team is talking with manufacturers to further simplify and produce the test. The New York Times reports https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/health/crispr-coronavirus-covid-test.html that they estimate that the materials for one test would cost about six dollars now and would fall even further when mass-produced. “The ability to test for Covid-19 at home, or even in pharmacies or places of employment, could be a game-changer for getting people safely back to work and into their communities,” said team member Feng Zhang in the press release.
    https://reason.com/2020/05/06/new-crispr-coronavirus-test-could-be-a-pandemic-game-changer/?utm_medium=email

  66. I’ve been reading a few articles about Dr. Judy Mikovits and her critiques of Dr. Fauci and Birx. As her story and claims are extremely incendiary, can anyone provide any insight to her reputation and credentials?

  67. opening up AZ:
    https://www.thehour.com/news/article/Arizona-halts-work-of-experts-predicting-a-later-15252336.php

    How exactly do you prevent a bunch of academics from modeling? These are not large models like the General Circulation Models that need supercomputers. A home-based personal workstation with 8 – 32 cores of processor power is affordable and more than adequate to the task.

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