CoV Discussion Thread III

By Judith Curry

My latest selection of interesting articles.

We need a COVID-19 vaccine–let’s get it right the first time [link]

Fauci once dismissed concerns of ‘silent carriers’ [link]

Don’t believe the COVID models – that’s not what they’ for [link]

Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review. [link]

On the predictability of infectious disease outbreaks [link]

Rud Istvan’s technical posts on COVID [link]

New study investigates California’s possible herd immunity to  COVID [link]

Hydroxychloroquine usage for coronavirus rises globally, plasma rated most effective: study – go.shr.lc/2y4QbeL

Top science panel:  COVID is unlikely to subside with warmer weather [link]

Dramatic reduction in COVID disaster projections [link]

Using ILI surveillance to estimate state-specific case detection rates and forecast SARS-CoV-2 spread in the United States [link]

America’s most influential COV model just revised its estimates downward – but not all models agree [link]

How can COVID models get it so wrong? [link]

A few weeks ago doctors were saying ACE inhibitor drugs need to be withheld. Today they look beneficial. blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archi

Compilation of evidence on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in treatment of #COVID19, as well as info on safety/side effects. [link]

Fauci:  There’s no evidence that the anti-malaria drug Trump pushes works against virus [link]

Why its so freaking hard to make a good COVID model [link]

How Ontario turned the tide on a huge backlog of COVID tests [link]

The trail leading back to the Wuhan labs [link]

Nature: the simulations driving the world’s response to COVID [link]

Economics and policy

Boris Johnson listened to his scientists about COVID – but they were slow to sound the alarm [link]

*Now* is the time to be thinking about what we can do to keep this from ever ever happening again. ensia.com/voices/covid-1

New Zealand crushed the Covid curve with only one death. [link]

Impact of CoV on the IPCC AR6 [link]

NAP Report: Rapid Medical Countermeasure Response to Infectious Disease [link]

Peter Gluckman: Build a science advice system fit for global crises [link]

There’s no plan for the end of the COVID crisis [link]

As Germany’s coronavirus outbreak appears to peak at fewer than 1,500 deaths – why HAS it performed so much better than most of Europe? mol.im/a/8191343

The economic slowdown and the pandemic are not two different problems. They are two aspects of a single threat to our population’s well-being, [link]

Elizabeth Warren’s plan to prevent and contain infectious diseases [link]

To beat the COV, raise an army of the recovered [link]

America was unprepared for a major crisis. Again. [link]

The US was beset by denial and dysfunction as the COV raged [link]

Inside the US COV testing failure [link]

Robert Stavins: What Can Economics Really Have to Say About COVID-19 Policies? [link]

For a robust recovery, invest in innovation [link]

Papers on the effectiveness of masks [link]

Sociology

Pope Says Virus Is Nature’s Response to the Climate Crisis pjmedia.com/trending/pope-

COV:  How can philosophy help us in this time of crisis? [link]

In a rare address to the nation, Queen Elizabeth II urged the U.K. to respond to the coronavirus with the “self-discipline” and “resolve” that have defined the British people in moments of crisis. [link]

David Rose: Revealed: Extinction Rebellion’s plan to exploit the Covid crisis. The group sees ‘silver linings’ in the pandemic spectator.co.uk/article/reveal

505 responses to “CoV Discussion Thread III

  1. Good evening Judith (UTC),

    You seem to have missed my own musings about COVID-19 from the UK perspective? Here’s the most recent one:

    http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/04/covid-19-in-south-west-england/

    A brief extract for you, from the police commander for Cornwall:

    Travelling into the Westcountry this weekend for a holiday is a serious breach of the restrictions & you’re likely to be fined.

    Our officers will be patrolling this weekend, firstly on the M5 and A30 in an attempt to prevent visitors from entering the force area, and then locally to enforce the restrictions.

    • jungletrunks

      I’ve couched this as a possible scenario here. There’s a great deal of granularity in the piece you post that adds much gravity to the premise, I really appreciate you posting it. Frankly an accidental release is the only thing that really makes sense relative to the timeline of events, which is why I referred to the Chinese narrative as not adding up, at the time I hit around the edges of the overarching theme to this article you post.

  2. Why won’t anyone acknowledge Taiwan’s success? Less than 400 cases, only 5 deaths, better than more-ballyhooed Singapore with 4X S’s population. And – since only 82 miles off the Chinese mainland and had a score of flights to China each day – a very high degree of difficulty to pull this off.

    • “Why won’t anyone acknowledge Taiwan’s success?”

      Probably because even mentioning the existence of Taiwan, let alone saying anything favourable about it, risks the wrath and vengeance of the PRC. Even officials at the WHO, which is the primary global agency for the coordination, collection and sharing of medical information and guidance, gets all in a splutter if the topic of Taiwan is merely hinted at. Consider the name “Lord Valdemort” at Hogwarts and you’ll get the idea.

  3. Fauci once dismissed concerns about ‘silent carriers’ of coronavirus. Not anymore.

    Asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic shedding is going to be minimal as they are not sneezing and coughing. If they were, they would not be asymptomatic. So, even an estimate of 10% of contacts would seem very high.

    The only exception known to date is the choir. Good singers sing from their diaphragm, so they likely shoot air out a longer distance.

  4. A press release from Cambridge University earlier today:

    https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis-provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins

    Researchers from Cambridge, UK, and Germany have reconstructed the early “evolutionary paths” of COVID-19 in humans – as infection spread from Wuhan out to Europe and North America – using genetic network techniques.

    By analysing the first 160 complete virus genomes to be sequenced from human patients, the scientists have mapped some of the original spread of the new coronavirus through its mutations, which creates different viral lineages….

    The team used data from virus genomes sampled from across the world between 24 December 2019 and 4 March 2020. The research revealed three distinct “variants” of COVID-19, consisting of clusters of closely related lineages, which they label ‘A’, ‘B’ and ‘C’….

    The new analysis also suggests that one of the earliest introductions of the virus into Italy came via the first documented German infection on January 27, and that another early Italian infection route was related to a “Singapore cluster”.

    Click through the article for the associated PNAS paper.

    • Yes but….where did Singapore and Germany get it from?

      • Evenin’ TWT,

        Can I safely assume that you haven’t read the press release or the Forster et al. paper in PNAS?

        Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus type.

        Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the US and Australia.

        Wuhan’s major virus type, ‘B’, was prevalent in patients from across East Asia. However, the variant didn’t travel much beyond the region without further mutations – implying a “founder event” in Wuhan, or “resistance” against this type of COVID-19 outside East Asia, say researchers.

        The ‘C’ variant is the major European type, found in early patients from France, Italy, Sweden and England. It is absent from the study’s Chinese mainland sample, but seen in Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea.

      • Their first case was a German national. The cluster was related to a german car parts company.

        Obviously, it stared in a China. Right now, likely in November in Hubei, and far away from wet market.

        If the NYC outbreak was fueled by Europeans, it bolsters my notion that the flood of Americans who returned from March 12 to 14 likely supercharged the outbreaks in 12 of the 13 international airports they were forced to use. All 12 are either currently hotspots or emerging hotspots:

        JFK; Logan; Newark; Dulles; Atlanta; O’Hare; Detroit; LAX; San Fran; Seattle; DFW; Miami. Around 75% of all cases are directly related to those airports.

        Only exceptions is Mardi Gras, similar event, and Honolulu, the only airport out of the 13 that has not seen an explosion in new cases.

      • Don Monfort

        Poor ole arm waving fanatically trying to fix the blame on Trump decisions JCH:

        “JFK; Logan; Newark; Dulles; Atlanta; O’Hare; Detroit; LAX; San Fran; Seattle; DFW; Miami. Around 75% of all cases are directly related to those airports.”

        You haven’t provided one little itsy bitsy piece of evidence for that. Are 75% of people at those airports sick? Are the airports causing the sickness. Are the death rates of the areas around those airports similar?

        I will help you:
        NY 7607 dead 20m pop
        NJ 1700 dead 9m
        MI 1076 dead 10m

        CA 538 dead 40m
        TX 202 dead 29m
        FLA 371 dead 22m

        It’s not a catastrophe because anybody was by the Big Orange Fella “forced” to use those particular airports. It’s not the airports that are causing the cases. The carriers of the virus could have arrived by boat, or walked across the border, or come across a border under a load of cabbages in a truck. If they had been allowed to choose any airport to arrive, we could have been facing an even wider spread epidemic.

        Explain why the airports in CA, TX, FLA and elsewhere have caused so many fewer casualties than the airports in NY, NJ, and MI. Different sanitation in the johns?

  5. Destruction of the current narrative by eminent epidemiologist:

    Another voice against the mob:

    And a reminder of how disaster (shock) capitalism works:

    • NEELEMAN: Stanford Professors’ Coronavirus Study Could Be Game Changer
      Thanks to the work of three Stanford University professors and recently FDA-approved antibody tests, we will we soon finally know the real size of the denominator of all those infected by COVID-19 — and that could be the game changer we need.
      Snip
      My search for a solution has led me to three amazing and dedicated professors and scientists from Stanford University School of Medicine with impeccable credentials. I have come to know them personally. Drs. John Ioannidis, Jay Bhattacharya and Eran Bendavid, using their epidemiology models and other evidences from China, Italy, Iceland and the US, have questioned from the beginning the true number of those who have been infected by COVID-19.
      https://www.dailywire.com/news/neeleman-stanford-professors-coronavirus-study-could-be-game-changer

    • Good reason #1 to lengthen the time:

      It allows for the development of treatments and potentially a vaccine.

      Good reason #2 to lengthen the time:

      It helps to prevent an overwhelmed medical system, which helps prevent a higher rate of deaths, increased healthcare workers infections due to resource exhaustion, fewer resources available for those who aren’t in critical condition, stringing out a heavily crippled economy over a longer period of time (for example, how many businesses will function well when no one knows if their workmate is infectious, how many restaurants will have customers if no one knows if the staff or other customers are infectious, etc.)

      Keep in mind, we don’t have any idea how herd immunity might develop with this virus. Also, it’s amusing that he talks about no new cases in China, and the success in Korea. Does he not realize that in those countries they did not just twiddle their thumbs and wait for her immunity to develop?

      • Well, this comment rests on the flawed assumption that a society CAN shutdown.
        Which my third plot shows is an obvious fantasy.

      • > Well, this comment rests on the flawed assumption that a society CAN shutdown.

        Actually, no.

        It rests on the assumption that a “shutdown” is not a binary, on/off state. There are degrees of “shutdown” which have a proportional impact.

      • Joshua- the concept of a ‘partial shutdown’ is a rank absurdity. Its basically the same as being ‘slightly pregnant’.
        As the epidemiologist in the first video demonstrates, even the notion of a ‘complete shutdown’ for an airborne virus is a delusion. Spread is simply too uncontrollable.
        Both China and SK implemented their shutdown AFTER the epidemic had peaked. Take for instance South Carolina, which just implemented a shutdown, compared to Colorado, which shut down in early March. Colorado has massively more deaths.
        Typically respiratory illness begins to decline this time of year precisely because people start to get out into the sun and open air, where it cannot survive.
        Instead, lockdown now has people couped up at home as perfect incubators, prolonging the outbreak and putting more elderly at risk.

      • Good reason #1 to lengthen the time:

        Bad Orange Man wants to avoid it, if practical, to save the economy.

        Good reason #2 to lengthen the time:

        Bad Orange Man wants to avoid it, if practical, to save the economy.

        If The Big Orange Fella POTUS , after careful consideration of the existing circumstances, decides to lengthen the time the TDS’ers will flip-flop and rail against it. They will probably play the race card, first. As we get closer to November, Bad Orange Man is doing it to keep everybody at home so they won’t notice the movement of the tanks and black helicopters. Never a dull moment with these characters, just a lot of nausea.

  6. The accidental release through utter incompetence in the Wuhan lab makes perfect sense to me. I have always thought one should never attribute to malice what can be explained by negligent stupidity. I think one way to get China to clean up with their act is deduct what this has cost us from money owed to the Chicom.

  7. Roger Knights

    “3 Ways New York Botched the Coronavirus Response in March
    “A hapless mayor and overpraised governor made false promises, gave inaccurate health information, and helped turn Gotham into the pandemic’s epicenter, according to The New York Times”
    MATT WELCH | 4.9.2020 12:45 PM Reason magazine

    https://reason.com/2020/04/09/3-ways-new-york-botched-the-coronavirus-response-in-march/?utm_medium=email

    • Somehow, Reason Magazine fails to mention this part of the NY Times article, “From the earliest days of the crisis, state and city officials were also hampered by a chaotic and often dysfunctional federal response, including significant problems with the expansion of coronavirus testing, which made it far harder to gauge the scope of the outbreak.
      “Normally, New York would get help from Washington in such a time, as it did after Sept. 11. But President Trump in February and early March minimized the coronavirus threat, clashing with his own medical experts and failing to marshal the might of the federal government soon after cases emerged in the United States.” President Trump had multiple briefings as early as January that he ignored.
      I eagerly await Reason’s summary of this article that details how Trump has contributed to the epidemic https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

      • Reason left out the lies that the NYT tells, on a daily basis.. The testing was problematic early on because they were dealing with a novel virus. Other countries had testing issues. Accurate and timely testing had to be developed. The expert bureaucrats at the CDC handle that. Trump doesn’t do test development. He has pretty much followed the advice of Fauci and those other bureaucrats, except he didn’t let them squash hydroxychloroquine. The NYT desperately needs Trump to fail. Guess what motivates their alleged “journalism”.

        California has done very very well compared to the state run by the hapless mayor and the overpraised governor. CA Gov. Newsom has highly praised the help he has gotten from POTUS Trump. Did Trump stiff Cuomo? Not according to Cuomo, when he is telling the truth.

      • @Don, please tell me what part of “But President Trump in February and early March minimized the coronavirus threat, clashing with his own medical experts and failing to marshal the might of the federal government soon after cases emerged in the United States.” is a lie. Did you really not see Trump say multiple times that “we have it all under control.” What preparations did he make between January and mid-March?

      • Just go with the NYT, jeff. I don’t have any more time for you. Get back to us on November 3, and tell us if the NYT has been successful in sinking the Big Orange Fella. I bet not.

      • jungletrunks

        Some specific actions by the administration, from February and early March:

        February 3: The CDC had a team ready to travel to China to obtain critical information on the novel coronavirus, but were in the U.S. awaiting permission to enter by the Chinese government.

        February 4: President Trump vowed in his State of the Union Address to “take all necessary steps” to protect Americans from the coronavirus.

        February 6: The CDC began shipping CDC-Developed test kits for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus to U.S. and international labs.

        February 9: The White House Coronavirus Task Force briefed governors from across the nation at the National Governors’ Association Meeting in Washington.

        February 11: The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) expanded a partnership with Janssen Research & Development to “expedite the development” of a coronavirus vaccine.

        February 12: The U.S. shipped test kits for the 2019 novel coronavirus to approximately 30 countries who lacked the necessary reagents and other materials. The CDC was prepared to travel to China but had yet to receive permission from the Chinese government, never got permission.

        February 14: The CDC began working with five labs to conduct “community-based influenza surveillance” to study and detect the spread of coronavirus.

        February 18: HHS announced it would engage with Sanofi Pasteur in an effort to quickly develop a coronavirus vaccine and to develop treatment for coronavirus infections.

        February 24: The Trump Administration sent a letter to Congress requesting at least $2.5 billion to help combat the spread of the coronavirus.

        February 26: President Trump discussed coronavirus containment efforts with Indian PM Modi and updated the press on his Administration’s containment efforts in the U.S. during his state visit to India.

        February 29: The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) allowed certified labs to develop and begin testing coronavirus testing kits while reviewing pending applications. The Trump Administration: Announced a level 4 travel advisory to areas of Italy and South Korea. Barred all travel to Iran. Barred the entry of foreign citizens who visited Iran in the last 14 days.

        March 3: The CDC lifted federal restrictions on coronavirus testing to allow any American to be tested for coronavirus, “subject to doctor’s orders.” The White House announced President Trump donated his fourth quarter salary to fight the coronavirus.

        March 4: The Trump Administration announced the purchase of $500 million N95 respirators over the next 18 months to respond to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. Secretary Azar announced that HHS was transferring $35 million to the CDC to help state and local communities that have been impacted most by the coronavirus.

        March 6: President Trump signed an $8.3 billion bill to fight the coronavirus outbreak. The bill provides $7.76 billion to federal, state, & local agencies to combat the coronavirus and authorizes an additional $500 million in waivers for Medicare telehealth restrictions.

        March 9: President Trump called on Congress to pass a payroll tax cut over coronavirus.

        March 10: President Trump and VP Pence met with top health insurance companies and secured a commitment to waive co-pays for coronavirus testing.

        March 11: President Trump: Announced travel restrictions on foreigners who had visited Europe in the last 14 days. Directed the Small Business Administration to issue low-interest loans to affected small businesses and called on congress to increase this fund by $50 billion. Directed the Treasury Department to defer tax payments for affected individuals & businesses, & provide $200 billion in “additional liquidity.” Met with American bankers at the White House to discuss coronavirus.
        March 13: President Trump declared a national emergency in order to access $42 billion in existing funds to combat the coronavirus.

        March 13: President Trump announced: Public-private partnerships to open up drive-through testing collection sites. A pause on interest payments on federal student loans. An order to the Department of Energy to purchase oil for the strategic petroleum reserve. The Food & Drug Administration: Granted Roche AG an emergency approval for automated coronavirus testing kits. Issued an emergency approval to Thermo Fisher for a coronavirus test within 24 hours of receiving the request. HHS announced funding for the development of two new rapid diagnostic tests, which would be able to detect coronavirus in approximately 1 hour.

        March 14: The Coronavirus Relief Bill passed the House of Representatives. The Trump Administration announced the European travel ban will extend to the UK and Ireland.

        March 15: President Trump held a phone call with over two dozen grocery store executives to discuss on-going demand for food and other supplies. HHS announced it is projected to have 1.9 million COVID-19 tests available in 2,000 labs this week. Google announced a partnership with the Trump Administration to develop a website dedicated to coronavirus education, prevention, & local resources. All 50 states were contacted through FEMA to coordinate “federally-supported, state-led efforts” to end coronavirus.

        March 16: President Trump: Held a tele-conference with governors to discuss coronavirus preparedness and response. Participated in a call with G7 leaders who committed to increasing coordination in response to the coronavirus and restoring global economic confidence. Announced that the first potential vaccine for coronavirus has entered a phase one trial in a record amount of time. Announced “15 days to slow the spread” coronavirus guidance. The FDA announced it was empowering states to authorize tests developed and used by labs in their states. Asst. Secretary for Health confirmed the availability of 1 million coronavirus tests, and projected 2 million tests available the next week and 5 million the following.

        March 17: President Trump announced: CMS will expand telehealth benefits for Medicare beneficiaries. Relevant Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act penalties will not be enforced. The Army Corps of Engineers is on ”standby” to assist federal & state governments. President Trump spoke to fast food executives from Wendy’s, McDonald’s and Burger King to discuss drive-thru services recommended by CDC. President Trump met with tourism industry representatives along with industrial supply, retail, and wholesale representatives. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin met with lawmakers to discuss stimulus measures to relieve the economic burden of coronavirus on certain industries, businesses, and American workers. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue announced a partnership between USDA, Baylor University, McLane Global, and Pepsi Co. to provide one million meals per weak to rural children in response to widespread school closures. The Treasury Department: Contributed $10bil through the economic stabilization fund to the Federal Reserve’s commercial paper funding facility. Deferred $300 billion in tax payments for 90 days without penalty, up to $1mil for individuals & $10mil for business. The Department of Defense announced it will make available to HHS up to five million respirator masks and 2,000 ventilators.

        March 18: President Trump announced: Temporary closure of the U.S.-Canada border to non-essential traffic. Plans to invoke the Defense Production Act in order to increase the number of necessary supplies needed to combat coronavirus. FEMA has been activated in every region at its highest level of response. The U.S. Navy will deploy USNS Comfort and USNS Mercy hospital ships. All foreclosures and evictions will be suspended for a period of time. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper confirmed: 1 million masks are now immediately available. The Army Corps of Engineers is in NY consulting on how to best assist state officials. HHS temporarily suspended a regulation that prevents doctors from practicing across state lines. President Trump spoke to: Doctors, physicians, and nurses on the front lines containing the spread of coronavirus. 130 CEOs of the Business Roundtable to discuss on-going public-private partnerships in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

      • @jungletrunks | April 12, 2020 at 12:49 pm | Thank you for the long reply. The restrictions on travel from China and Europe may have helped delay the epidemic in the US.

        The promise in the state of the union address to “take all necessary steps” was belied by the President’s multiple public statements that there was no or almost no threat. Most of the other items you list prior to about March 13 were actions of the underlying Federal bureaucracy that would have happened unless the administration actively prevented them. The President doesn’t deserve get much credit for not vetoing the $8B bill from Congress that was three times the size of his request.

        Acquisitions of medical masks and gowns (and ventilators!) should have started much earlier. Stockpiling supplies for an epidemic is primarily a Federal responsibility. Requiring each state to have its own stockpile would result in a much larger overall cost.

      • jungletrunks

        “Most of the other items you list prior to about March 13 were actions of the underlying Federal bureaucracy that would have happened unless the administration actively prevented them.”

        Federal bureaucracy related to emergency responses don’t just happen in a vacuum. Even those Federal actions that immediately occur from mandate are filtered through conference with Trump; after reports from mandated responses provide further options; parameters; recommended actionable timelines; suggestions; etc., for further actions. All information is channeled to the President to facilitate an informed game plan for the best possible resolution. Regardless, your slight of hand isn’t working here, many of the actions Trump took in the aforementioned timeline didn’t originate from agency mandate anyway.

        Your problem is that Trump didn’t portray the proper dystopian future; misery, despair and a grim look for all people. No comforting words to the American people are allowed from Trump; though hypocrisy is blessed by clowns like Cuomo, and assorted sycophantical, intellectual hillbillies from NY, and within US congress. Nothing short of the delivery of despair was going to satisfy these who need their daily fix of hand holding “this one is going to work” messaging. BTW, undoubtably Santa Clause slapped you around as a kid, you’re so resentful.

      • JeffT- The problem you face is that there is an objective, science-based means of evaluating how well the United States performed in the pandemic.
        You can compare it to other modern western nations.

        Death rate per 100k as of this morning:
        US- 6.7
        France – 21.5
        Belgium (capital of the EU)- 34.2
        Netherlands (which Bernie wants to be just like)- 16.3
        Sweden- 8.7
        UK- 15.9

        If Donald Trump did poorly, a whole bunch of EU governments will need to fall due to the comparatively horrific response.
        Or JeffT can be honest.
        I’m not betting on the latter or former, frankly.

      • Jeff

        Yes, deaths per million population are the only fair comparison but with a caveat that it should be set against the age profile as well. The younger the age profile the fewer the ratio of deaths.

        But looking at total deaths and setting that against other smaller countries such as Italy seems to me to be a function of the commenters likely ideology and their hatred of your President

        tonyb

      • Deaths perillion is hardly the only relevant stat. Rates of growth are also very relevant.

        But even in deaths per million, the US ranks behind a lot of EU countries:

        https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

        But it’s way too early, and the numbers to sensitive to changing parameters, to really evaluate now.

        What we do know is that the testing in this country was pathetic early on. And we know thsr contact tracing continues to be pathetic. Blame whomever you want for that. But excusing these failures won’t help with correcting for them.

        And lies like “Anyone who wants a test can get a test” are clear evidence of a lack of accountability. It’s kind of amazing how many roadies can’t deal with that

      • Tony.

        Not that in deaths per million the US ranks both ahead of and behind EU countries.

        There are MANY variables in play. And people on both sides are using the numbers to attack and fluff Trump, respectively.

        The idea that it’s only people who hate Trump that are leveraging the numbers is silly.

      • > Death rate per 100k as of this morning:
        US- 6.7
        France – 21.5
        Belgium (capital of the EU)- 34.2
        Netherlands (which Bernie wants to be just like)- 16.3
        Sweden- 8.7
        UK- 15.9

        Wow. Cherry pick of historic proportions.

        This is sortable by deaths per million.

        https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

      • Government bureaucrat, who plays a doctor on TV, was advising the POTUS and the nation that it was not a big thing. Now he is going around stabbing the POTUS in the back. The CDC bureaucracy claimed they had preparations under control. But let’s point the finger of blame at the Bad Orange Man. It’s our last shot at taking him out.

        https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1249738245237284864

        14/ on Jan 28 news briefing, despite explicit statement to contrary by China Minister of Health, Fauci repudiated asymptomatic spread: “The driver of an outbreak has always been a symptomatic person. An epidemic is not driven by asymptomatic carriers.”

        on Feb 3, CDC’s Nancy Messonnier said that US “ha[s] time to prepare, and we are preparing as if this were the next pandemic”. It was only after CDC preparations exposed in mid-March as abysmal that US media began blaming China for poor preparation

      • @jungletrunks | April 13, 2020 at 9:43 am | Santa Clause? Really?? You have clearly run out of substantive things to say.

        @jeffnsails850 | April 13, 2020 at 10:09 am | What reason do you have to question my honesty? You do have a point: per capita deaths is a useful statistic to consider. But the US has a lower population density and a younger population than most of Europe. The US should do much better than European countries. Shouldn’t we be way, way better than Italy? Shouldn’t we be significantly better than Germany, which has only half the per capita death rate of the US?

        On February 27th, the President said “It’s going to disappear. One day – it’s like a miracle – it will disappear.” On February 29th the governor of Washington declared a state of emergency. On March 4th, the governor of California declared a state of emergency. On March 10th, the President said “And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away.” If those governors had not ignored the President’s “don’t worry, be happy” attitude, there would have been many more deaths.

      • My comment from about 1:30PM April 13 hasn’t shown up. Here’s a second try.

        jungletrunks | April 13, 2020 at 9:43 am | Santa Clause? Really? You clearly haven’t got anything substantive to say.

        jeffnsails850 | April 13, 2020 at 10:09 am | You have a point about comparing deaths per capita. As tonyb points out, we need to consider that the population in most European nations is older than in the US. The population density is also higher. Consequently, we should expect to have lower per capita deaths than just about any European nation. Comparing the US to Italy really sets the bar low. Why not look at Germany, which has about half as many deaths per capita?

        On February 27th, the President said, “It’s going to disappear. One day – it’s like a miracle – it will disappear.” The governors of Washington and California declared states of emergency on February 29th and March 4th, respectively. On March 10th, the President said, “And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away.” If the governors had not ignored the President’s “don’t worry, be happy” attitude, we would probably have many more deaths. Finally, on what basis do you question my honesty?

      • Tony –

        I recommend sorting by cases per million as well. Probably even more relevant than deaths perkkkion for assessing policy development and implementation.

        https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

        Once again, it’s waaaaay too early to really underarms what’s going on. Waaaaay too early to assign blame. Did Trump do worse than other president’s might have?
        Well never know. But it’s clear that the way the situation was handled in this country has, thus far, produced poor results.

        The data show that these Trump toadies don’t have a leg to stand on.

        What scares me is that the obvious errors (terrible roll out of testing, inane bloviating about how well the testing was going, terrible implementation of contact tracing, etc.) and the sycophantic fealty from Trump roadies, suggests that there will be no accountability and thee will continue to be poor performance going forward with the massive testing we’ll need to make the lockdown lifting better for the economy.

        Maybe the states will get it together and incompetence at the federal level won’t matter as much?

      • Yo jeef, You need to ask Cuomo-De Blasio why we aren’t doing better.

      • Cases per million?

        US ranks at about 200 out of about 220 countries listed:

        worldometers.info/coronavirus/

        Sort by cases per million.

      • jungletrunks

        JeffT: “The governors of Washington and California declared states of emergency on February 29th and March 4th, respectively.”…If the governors had not ignored the President’s “don’t worry, be happy” attitude, we would probably have many more deaths”

        You have a very difficult time with contextual relevance to evidence, it’s because of your blind-sided desperation to push gotcha narratives. I described why that is in my last post to you.

        Trump announced the pandemic a public health emergency on Jan 31; but that day he also announced the formation of the corona task force, Dr. Fauci was put on it. I’m so happy California and Washington decided to take the national emergency declaration as seriously as Trump did, and follow suit by declaring their state emergencies a month later.

        But Democrats used the first month post Trump’s national emergency announcement to mock his travel ban, task force, and national emergency. Biden called his declarations “hysterical”. De Blasio was promoting New Yorkers to go out on the town, that there was no danger, all these views were shared widely by the Left. CNN on Feb 21 stated that “racist attacks are more threatening than coronavirus”. https://judithcurry.com/2020/04/09/cov-discussion-thread-iii/#comment-914203

        So let’s clap our hands that CA and Washington finally got with the program by the end of Feb.; too bad NY, et al, remained obstinate. The Lefts hypocrisy is stunning, yours is.

      • jungletrunks | April 14, 2020 at 9:30 am |
        “The Lefts hypocrisy is stunning, yours is.” By using insults, you expose your lack of confidence in your arguments.

      • jungletrunks

        I state it as fact, actually.

        If a fact is an insult to you, one must go with the fact; the hypocrisy of the Left relative to their initial critical, mocking, lackadaisical response is abundantly demonstrable.

      • Roger Knights

        Oh sure, Trump and the federal medical bureaucracy screwed up. But the NY City mayor and NY governor made things even worse, which other local officials didn’t do. Subsequently they have sought to absolve themselves of all blame, putting it on Trump. There’s plenty of blame to go around.

        Reason magazine has blasted Trump and the feds too, in many articles. Here are a few; you can search for more when you get to the Reason site:

        http://click1.e.reason.com/pdqvgvgttjfbgmwlbygcmbrjwlbvhfgsmjwrjrfqfcylj_zllbmwswkrsdwwlwrzz.html

        http://click1.e.reason.com/bqgznznkkfdyngvqyjncgysfvqyzpdntgfvsfsdldgfbp_cgggdjcjftcqjtlddlg.html

        http://click1.e.reason.com/sbmpgpgffvjtgmwktcgsmtzvwktpbjgdmvwzvzjrjvkvm_bcqjlcgcypgbqfcbqjl.html

  8. Curious George

    Until we know what percentage of the population is naturally immune and what percentage simply shows no symptoms, all models are shots in the dark – that’s why graphs with uncertainty ranges bear a depressing similarity to IPCC models.

    Given how little we know, whatever approach we take is playing a roulette. Of course, we will put a scientific veneer on the approach taken. In four weeks or so we may compare results from Sweden and Denmark and other countries. Then we can evaluate approaches in hindsight.

    I am not blaming anybody for the lack of knowledge, but I blame officials who ban potential treatments for questionable reasons.

  9. The US needs to walk away from doing business with China. This will take time, but China needs to pay a heavy price for their malicious negligence.

    Once we get out of this mess, the U.S. Senate needs to take a real hard look at the NIH and their virus research activities, especially those involving China. Ditto for the CDC and their foul-ups. We need to follow the tread, wherever it goes and take corrective actions. The House of Representatives and “fake news” are not capable of pursuing the truth, being hopelessly irrational.

    On a broader level, the Chinese government cannot be trusted. Looks to me they are similar to the totalitarian regimes that created World War 2 and the Cold War. In this case, the Chinese government has stupidly unleashed death and economic destruction on the world by way of accidental and ill-advised “germ warfare”.

  10. dougbadgero

    This has been a very frustrating few weeks. The real world data did not support the model outputs weeks ago. The government model has gone from predicting 100s of thousands of deaths to about 60000, and I expect it to come down further. In all cases the model assumed forced social distancing measures in place. We threw millions of people out of their jobs based on models that could never have been correct. There were, and are, far too many poorly understood inputs.

    It would have been far better to use the models as real time predictors understanding their limitations and watching trends. Updating the models with real world data as the epidemic progressed. Politicians allowed scientists to hold sway on decisions that were fundamentally based on normative value based choices.

    For the record, I model complex systems for a living and understand more than most their limits. I sincerely hope we learn from this debacle. Unfortunately, based on early indications politicians and scientists are doing their best at CYA.

    • In my opinion, this whole fiasco has shown the futility of using science as a means of information when the basic standard is not met, i.e. enough certain basis to construct the whole edifice.
      Because science is an edifice. It is both the strength and the weakness of the method. Incredibly precise result can be obtained when all the bricks in the structure are solid. But if even one is faulty, the entire result is meaningless and collapses.
      I personally based my notions about the pandemic based on the anecdotal information from China. It simply wasn’t anywhere near the levels of insane that people were imagining.
      And, right away, one has to dismiss the notion that social distancing and all the strict chinese lockdowns did anything. This thing is trillions of strands airborne. To try and defeat it by running is senseless.
      Good old common sense destroys science in this circumstance.

    • While it remains to be seen how the current crisis plays out, the modeling issues should not be seen in isolation IMO. We have had a long string of questionable advice from a small coterie of “elite” epidemiologists. (Ferguson among notables)
      BSE-vCJD, FMD2001, Avian Flu, Sars, Swine Flu Waves I and II.

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/25/covid-19-updated-data-implies-that-uk-modelling-hugely-overestimates-the-expected-death-rates-from-infection/#comment-2948965

      George E. P. Box Quotes
      “Statisticians, like artists, have the bad habit of falling in love with their models.” ~ George E. P. Box
      https://www.azquotes.com/author/22390-George_E_P_Box

  11. For the attention of Tony, Mark and any other interested UK residents and/or lockdown surfers:

    http://GreatWhiteCon.info/wp-admin/comment.php?action=editcomment&c=328503

    As a “silver surfer” myself I cannot help but wonder if all these surfers at Fistral Beach earlier today are:

    a) Resident in Cornwall, and
    b) If so only getting wet once per day, and
    c) Always over 2 meters apart

    • What with one thing and another I couldn’t sleep, so I thought I’d see if the new IHME “predictions” are available yet. They are not.

      However idly browsing the interweb I spotted some exceedingly interesting information!

      Now aware of that “Kernow lockdown common sense” guidance perhaps I’ll sleep better tonight (UTC)?

      • I spoke to my son on the phone yesterday-he lives in Cambridge- and we talked of the tourists likely sneaking cross country at night to get to Devon and Cornwall.

        He was very indignant and said something along the lines of ‘all those idiots taking their vans to the beach to surf will get police attention, get shown on the news and get us locked down even harder, I hope they show some common sense.’

        Spirit and letter of the law might be two different things, but I am not sure photos, public reaction and hence govt response will differentiate. between tourists and locals indulging in what you might see as legitimate exercise, but others might see as out and out indulgence and fun.

        Where we are the weather is extremely calm so not sure how big the waves will be anyway. Have a good Easter

        tonyb

      • Evenin’ Tony,

        The surf was virtually non existent today. Thus the bike ride.

        You’ll no doubt be overjoyed to learn that our local Police Commander likes my message?

      • Evenin’ Tony,

        Sorry for the “brief hiatus”. It’s been frantic on the novel coronavirus front here for the last couple of days. Kasia and I put our cunning plan into action on Easter Saturday, and it worked a treat!

  12. Roger Knights

    But is it really no worse than flu?
    Guest Blogger / 10 hours ago April 9, 2020
    By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/09/but-is-it-really-no-worse-than-flu/#comment-2960837

    • Thanks for the heads up Roger,

      For the first time in living memory I find myself in agreement with Viscount Monckton of Brenchley!

      “For the time being, governments will be keeping lockdowns in place. It would be irresponsible to do otherwise.”

      Unfortunately I’m very much a persona non grata over at WUWT. Perhaps you could pass on my good wishes?

  13. Re: COVID is unlikely to subside with warmer weather

    “No such seasonal aspect has been observed in other coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS, the report noted.”

    ???

    WTH are the speaking of?

    This is from the SARS Wiki:

    MERS in South Korea:

    Decline to nothing in July???

    • TE, regards. Your posted data is not a legit analog. SARS was completely detectible by fever screening. Known just weeks after the Hong Kong spreader event. No pre-symptomatic virion shedding, and peak shedding was on day four of symptoms. So, aggressive fever screening followed by quarantine stopped SARS 2003 cold.

      Your data is an artifact of when it emerged and how fast the world learned how to screen to stop it in 2003. I went to a medical conference in Panama that summer and was screened both in and out.

      No such screening is possible for Wuhan, since now proven transmissible 1-3 days before symptoms. Worse, 20% of positives remain asymptomatic but presumablyinfective for 14 days in quarantine, as proven by the extensive screening and related data from South Korea.

      • Perhaps, but it’s a counterfactual with SARS – you don’t know if the measures helped or the seasonality prevailed.

        But SARS-MERS aside, coronavirus appears to be very seasonal.
        Figure b. is primary care
        Figure d. is hospital care.

        Coronaviruses are the middle shade of green.
        Tough to distinguish, but CV goes to zero in summer in primary care, and is clearly seasonal in hospital care:

  14. Robert Clark

    Covid-19 cases daily change USA 7:00 PM EDT
    Date total cases % change
    4/3/2020 36272
    -10.5%
    4/4/2020 32428
    -14.5%
    4/5/2020 27725
    +o.8%
    4/6/2020 27948
    +1.8%
    4/7/2020 28465
    +28.6
    4/8/2020 36616
    -23.1%
    4/9/2020 28134
    Total 4/6 177,860
    4/7 175,827
    4/8 185,753
    4/9 177,164

  15. Robert Ayers

    New study investigates California’s possible herd immunity to COVID [link]
    but the link goes to a rambling post that doesn’t discuss California or herd imunity

  16. My Chat with Infectious Diseases Specialist Paul Offit (THE SAAD TRUTH_ 1030)

    • Curious George

      What’s your point? Why do the lines go down – can we do resurrection now? Good Friday is too early for it …

    • Curious George

      Resurrection for good Catholics?

    • US deaths are overtaking Spain’s and Italy’s, exactly as predicted.

      • Why are Italy and Spain’s total deaths dropping?

      • Curious George

        Is the US much smaller than Spain?

      • jungletrunks

        “US deaths are overtaking Spain’s and Italy’s, exactly as predicted”

        Dang, disturbing charts, especially considering Italy and Spain’s populations are so much bigger than the US?

        I guess the silver lining is the US trajectory seems to be following the same path as those comparative nations; perhaps this why it was predicted, rough guess.

        Is the US peaking later because the disease was held off longer as a result of responsible travel ban restrictions? Perhaps this might be worth pondering about. As I recall Europe was exceedingly late in declaring any hint of a travel ban; I wonder if this fact sheds light in the US lag for a flattening curve?

      • The 50% isolated get gnawed at by the virus, and people die.

        A person who is effectively around 70% isolated is a proxy for herd immunity. The virus stops thriving; the death rate comes down.

        Once around 21 to 28 days pass with no new cases, the virus is pretty much finished in that region. Reopen too soon, new infections will explode as the formerly isolated come out of isolation with no immunity.

        The west is a long long way from being out of this mess, and it’s not China’s fault. It’s our fault.

      • jungletrunks

        wow, “70% isolated is a proxy for herd immunity” Dr. Fauci was right.

        I guess that’s why the US per capita number is so much lower than much of Europes. Dr. Fauci’s been handing out gold stars to the US people for being so responsible, after all, deaths are so much lower than the predictions!!

        And no, it’s not China’s fault. Your substantive notes have impeccable credentials, and prove this unequivocally. We appreciate your due diligence in keeping all perfectly informed on the matter.

      • jungletrunks

        Oh, and by the way, JCH.

        About that vaccine already in advanced trials in China, the one you posted the headline to; you know the one, the drug that was developed by China’s Academy of Military Medical Sciences, the research unit of the People’s Liberation Army.

        To the point; you seem to have peeps in China in high places, can you ask Major General Chen Wei, the team leader, as soon as they’re finished filling the last body bag, ask him if the US can have the drug too? We’ll begin testing it on rats right away.

      • Curious George

        You are Type O, indeed. Maybe even 0.

      • Is the US much smaller than Spain?

        There are some questions reflect vacuousness so wide and big they send me out to mow the yard.

        The eastern corridor, Boston to DC, has a population that is similar to those of Spain and Italy, and is probably responsible for around 70% of US deaths to date. The new cases in the southern end of that corridor continue to rise quickly, so the dying in the corridor is far from over.

        The only real hope out there is summer heat, and nobody knows. The SARS people say it was corralled and killed by aggressive contact tracing and isolation.

        The new cases in the other cities and regions served by the other seven international airports where Americans who rushed to return from Europe were herded like pigs in tight spaces continue to grow quickly.

        Ever see a virus gnaw through a pig barn?

      • China has a lot of money, and they have invested large sums into science, training large numbers of their people all over the world in exceptional universities, and into vastly improving their own scientific curriculums and training them there.

        Vaccines are hard. I have no idea who will win, if anybody.

        So sorry your side failed to nurture American exceptionalism, and, cheerleading improves nothing.

      • Justify China Homey,

      • JCH: US deaths are overtaking Spain’s and Italy’s, exactly as predicted.

        Is the US much smaller than Spain?

        Say it plainly: Deaths per million of population are 6 times as high in Spain and Italy as in the US.

      • Curious George

        For JCH, US is blue states only. The virus likes progressives.

      • jungletrunks

        JCH, I’m very familiar with what vacuous is from reading some of your posts. My admittedly indulgent parody appears to have been a bit much for you; fortunately matthewrmarler was quick to get past the nonsense, revealing the simple reality.

      • JCH:

        China has a lot of money, and they have invested large sums into science, training large numbers of their people all over the world in exceptional universities, and into vastly improving their own scientific curriculums and training them there.
        ————————————————————

        And we make climate models. To fight an existential threat. What do we teach at our colleges? To put solar panels on government buildings.

    • My gosh, this is more obtuse than a Mosher post… I have no idea what is attempting to be conveyed here.

      • “I have no idea what is attempting to be conveyed here.”

        Orange man bad.

      • That’s correct. He’s a butcher.

      • Justify China Homey got the fever

      • “He’s a butcher.”

        Far more surgical than that! Not so much a cure as a diagnostic – with the malady revealed by losing its sh!t. It’s glorious!

      • JCH

        That’s correct. He’s a butcher.

        ————————————-

        No he’s not. Mistakes have been made. Biden would have done so much better. Same with the DNC. And Hillary Clinton.

        Donald Trump has done a lot of good. And the people didn’t want the alternatives. And the alternatives lost and continued to lose. And now they are chasing an ambulance like ghouls. Fix something and stop complaining. Make something better.

    • One day to a virtual tie with Italy:

      • jch

        If that is total deaths surely you have to take into account the relative size of the populations? The only fair way of looking at this is deaths per million or similar

        tonyb

      • jungletrunks

        Tony: “The only fair way of looking at this is deaths per million or similar”

        All fair minded have been in agreement to this logic you present from the start; it has been repeated how many times now? It’s ignored by JCH, and other hard Left disciples. There appears to be a sizable number on the Left who see the pandemic as “the” opportunity for change. This leaks out of one side of their mouth, while the other side of their mouth projects the horror of what orange man has facilitated.

        Event 201 is beginning to look like an epiphany for a malevolent actor with means, one who fits the aforementioned profile. The Event 201 link is downthread; it’s uncanny how the events profile fits exactly the circumstances the world currently sees itself in, right down to the source of the disease, 2 months before the “real deal”.

      • Again, the vast majority of US deaths are taking place in the corridor from Boston to Washington DC, which has a similar population, depending on how they count it.

        And, I believe somebody claimed it would never happen.

        and, olol

      • jungletrunks

        JCH: “And, I believe somebody claimed it would never happen”

        And I believe you have selective amnesia relative to the Lefts lack of early concern:

        Joe Biden called Trump’s actions “hysterical” on Jan 31, the day Trump began the travel ban; announced COVID-19 a public health emergency, and established a task force. Democrats were still focused on impeachment on the 31st, the Senate was trying to determine if more witnesses were going to be called for the impeachment trial; Jan 15th, Pelosi started handing out commemorative pens after holding a vote to send over articles of impeachment against President Trump. When Trump held the State of the Union address on February 4th, he described COVID-19 concerns, the same day that Nancy Pelosi had a temper tantrum. The Left ignored the virus until they needed more fodder after their failed impeachment attempt.

        It was March 17 before The European Council agreed to ban incoming travel other than citizens from countries in the European Union.

        Here’s a tiny sampling of what some on the Left were saying early to mid timeline of the pandemic:

        WHO’s, Tedros: Jan 14; “Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus” After Trumps Travel ban; “widespread travel bans and restrictions were not needed to stop the outbreak and could “have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit.”

        Gov Cuomo: Feb 2; “At the same time, perspective is key – and I want to remind people that New York currently has zero confirmed cases of this virus. We want all New Yorkers to know that the State and its agencies and authorities are on top of this situation” Feb 4; “the risk to New Yorkers is still low” March 2 “We should relax.” Cuomo emphasized that while coronavirus is concerning, it’s not as grave a threat as other illnesses such as ebola or influenza. “Avian flu, ebola, SARS, MERS, measles, right? So we have gone through this before,” Cuomo continued. “When you look at the reality here, about 80% of people who are infected with the coronavirus self-resolve… 20% get ill. The mortality rate estimated to be about 1.4% – what does that mean? The normal flu mortality rate is about 0.6%.” “There’s not going to be any quarantines where we contain people in an area or block people from an area,” he said in an interview on NY1. “There’s not going to be any ‘you must stay in your house’ rule, because again that will just cause people to go somewhere else and that would be counterproductive.” February 26, Cuomo boasted about NY’s accessibility to foreign travelers—his state, the governor said, is the “front door” for visitors from around the world—while only instituting voluntary quarantines for suspected coronavirus carriers. Tourists and business travelers continued to pour into the Big Apple during the first several days of March without any comprehensive screening or restrictions. “Everybody is doing exactly what we need to do,” Cuomo said on March 2. “We have been ahead of this from Day 1.”

        NYC mayor De Blasio: Feb 10, “We want to encourage” New Yorkers going out” “If you’re under 50 & you’re healthy, which is most NYers, there’s very little threat here. This disease, even if you were to get it, basically acts like a common cold or flu. And transmission is not that easy,” March 2 in a tweet: Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions. Here’s the first: thru Thurs 3/5 go see “The Traitor” @FilmLinc. If “The Wire” was a true story + set in Italy, it would be this film. March 2: “We have a lot of information now, information that is actually showing us things that should give us more reason to stay calm and go about our lives” normally.” March 2: “The facts in fact show us that this is a situation that can be managed.”

        NYC Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot: “There is no reason not to take the subway, not to take the bus, not to go out to your favorite restaurant, and certainly not to miss the parade next Sunday.” Barbot said during a Feb. 2 press conference, the same say in a tweet; “I want to be clear, this is about a virus, not a group of people. There is NO excuse for anyone to discriminate or stigmatize people of Asian heritage. We are here today to urge all New Yorkers to continue to live their lives as usual”. Feb 7; “And so we know that this virus can be transmitted from one individual to another, but that it’s typically people who live together” “there’s no risk at this point in time—we’re always learning more—about having it be transmitted in casual contact”

        Washington Post: Jan 31: “How our brains make coronavirus seem scarier than it is.” “Get a grippe, America. The flu is a much bigger threat than coronavirus, for now,” published February 1. and, Why we should be wary of an aggressive government response to coronavirus.

        NYT: February 18; In Europe, Fear Spreads Faster Than the Coronavirus itself. It highlighted the “stigmatization” that came with having the coronavirus and how it hurt people’s feelings.

        CNN: Feb 21; Racist Attacks Are More Threatening Than Coronavirus

      • Excellent summation ,jt. That’s gonna burn somebodies little buttocks.

  17. Going directly to root cause we have (greed, hatred and delusion) as the hub the 12 limbs of dependent origination spin.
    https://www.accesstoinsight.org/tipitaka/sn/sn12/sn12.002.than.html

    Now if usury is a disease then debt is a virus.
    Secondary unseen causes in air,water and earth are many including electrosmog,

    https://bioinitiative.org/whats-new/

    • A reasonable translation (although I would say mind-consciousness rather than intellect), but I cannot see the relevance to the present discussion. And as you probably know, only practising as taught by the Buddha brings change, not intellectual understanding. I’m sure that the world would be much better if everyone practised Vipassana meditation, but that doesn’t help on how to deal with the virus.

      • Seems many have prematurely concluded effects without reviewing multiple causes.

        Intellectual understanding of the path is only a precursor to direct experience.

        If a rush to build out microwave telecommunications without extensive health risks is due to greed/hatred/delusion then in the absence of those mental defilements there would exist an FCC with fangs.

        William K Black said the same thing about bank regulators during the 2008 crisis as opposed to the fanged banking regulators of the S&L crisis of the 1980s
        https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/were-bankers-jailed-in-past-financial-crises/
        The virus of greed/hatred/delusion run deep.
        In addition Gresham’s Law comes into play..
        In summery with a broad brush stroke of a generalization we can say:

        All Illness is the Result of unwise attention.

      • Fine, you want to split hairs over intellect vs mind. Can you have mind consciousness without intellect?
        Anyway, in this case I like both translations.

        That goes for right view vs wholesome view as well in the 8 fold path.

        Now as far as declaring irrelevance I might/will argue that through spiritual strength which conquers fear one retains Logos or critical thinking which apparently is humongous-lee absent.

        There should be a crime against media driven single narrative fear porn.

        And the Church of last resort IS, Virtual Reality!

        translated from the Pali by Bhikkhu Bodhi

        “And what, bhikkhus, are the six sense bases? The eye base, the ear base, the nose base, the tongue base, the body base, the mind base. These are called the six sense bases.
        https://suttacentral.net/sn12.2/en/bodhi
        translated from the Pali by
        Thanissaro Bhikkhu
        “And what is contact? These six are classes of contact: eye-contact, ear-contact, nose-contact, tongue-contact, body-contact, intellect-contact. This is called contact”

  18. Old epidemiological quote, [purloined for elsewhere]. All models are wrong; some models are more wrong than others; some models may prove useful

    • “some models may prove useful”

      But perhaps only useful after the fact when we learn why they were erroneous.

      Predictive models may by useless and harmfully so with respect to an not validated future state.

  19. “A few weeks ago doctors were saying ACE inhibitor drugs need to be withheld. Today they look beneficial.”

    A little bit of an overstatement, I think. Even a few weeks ago there was no recommendation to stop using ACE inhibitors.

    Same author:

    “Most of those questions are specifically about ACE inhibitors (all the -pril drugs) or angiotensin receptor blockers (all the -sartan ones). The advice given here starts out with, as usual, I Am Not a Physician, but points out that no professional society has yet recommended doing changing such a treatment regimen”.

    https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/01/covid-19-blood-pressure-medication-and-ibuprofen

    There was some cause for concern but there were also differing opinions and even the the opinion that a related drug – an ARB losartan – might be beneficial. It is in a clinical trial now, I believe.

  20. Thanks for the David Rose heads up Judith.

    You may recall that he and I have a long “history”?!

  21. Casting Rud Istvan’s post as “technical” is hilarious.

    It begins reviewing his previous posts and acknowledging his first post on the topic was completely WRONG (his caps).

    His second post was explaining why his first post was wrong, because surprise surprise there was something we didn’t know about coronavirus.

    But not apparently learning that there is a lot we don’t know, he now is confident to speculate in this post about seasonality, the spreading of the virus (forget the masks he advises), and that maybe gingko biloba extract might be useful.

    • To you, perhaps. To others with little knowledge of virology, the comments appear that my posts have been valuable introductory overviews.

      I lived four months of hell during summer 2009 as CEO of the little persistent hand sanitizer patent company whose regulatory head died of swine flu in June. Worked directly with Dr. Fauci, the Deputy head of FDA for EAU, and even briefed the NSA at White House at their request. Been there, done that, during the last pandemic. You?

      • The gingko appears useful for one thing at least.

        “Taking a 240-mg daily dose of Ginkgo biloba extract is effective and safe in the treatment of dementia”.

        https://jphcs.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40780-015-0014-7

      • James is a paid publicist for the virus. Or so it appears.

      • Don,

        I was somewhat joking in my comment. I’ve engaged in my speculations for possible supplements that might assist – niacin, NAC, NADH+, and curcumin.

        My more general point, however, is that there is a lot of speculation based on not a lot of science and on very little evidence so it might be best to scale back the speculation and the automatic skepticism that conventional science is suspect.

      • https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S104366182030743X

        Lianhuaqingwen exerts anti-viral and anti-inflammatory activity against novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

        Lianhuaqingwen (LH) as traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) formula has been used to treat influenza and exerted broad-spectrum antiviral effects on a series of influenza viruses and immune regulatory effects Ding et al. (2017). The goal of this study is to demonstrate the antiviral activity of LH against the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus and its potential effect in regulating host immune response.

  22. In this advanced technological age, it’s a travesty that Americans have to line up by the hundreds to apply for unemployment benefits. It’s even outrageous they have to speak to someone on the phone to apply.

    Government knows or could know everything there is to know about me, including what kind of cereal I eat and the brand of golf ball I use.

    Each application for unemployment benefits should be online, just as it is to obtain Social Security benefits.

    While I’m complaining, I’ve been to medical providers over 30 times in the last 16 months, more than the cumulative total over the previous 75 years. Nearly every time, I needed to give them information about myself that a fully integrated system would have already provided for easy access. While the medicine is out of the dark ages, the administration surrounding it is not.

    • Here I’m going to mostly agree with you.

      Regarding medical providers, are you going to same group? I don’t seem to have that issue with Kaiser Permanente, which seems to be able to maintain a clear consistent history.

      Of course, unemployment benefits have been designed to be hard to get.

      And there is general resistance to the government keeping too much centralized information about people.

      • I’ve been to 3 hospitals and numerous other offices, services and labs. In some cases they are in a collaborative relationship and I repeat the process of giving my information to both places. In one office they are within 100 feet of a lab but don’t share the same system. When taking blood, the technician spends 90% of the time typing out my information which I had already given minutes before in the other office (repeating what was given previously even in that office).

        It’s a mess.

  23. The information-based handling of this epidemic has been worse than abysmal.

    Models and public’s willingness to apply “alarmist adjustments”
    The RCP8.5-like “business as usual” projection in the US was 1-2 million deaths and people were not terrified, but were paying attention.
    Then we got the best-case (maybe comparable to 2-degrees?) projection based on “perfect social distancing” of 100,000-200,000 deaths.
    Then the observational-based adjustments to the projections started coming in and we are currently at 60,000, have dropped significantly twice so far this week alone, and will drop again.

    The media narrative is that Trump and the US are uniquely mishandling the virus. The science tells us the death rate is now and will continue to be much higher in the EU.

    The ridiculous fight over Hydroxychloroquine and the sad tale of the WHO’s Chinese bootlicking is give everyone a front row seat to a real time show of activists shamelessly politicizing science (with people in white coats and the “international expert community” happily playing along).

    People are now, and will be, very angry at China for this. Spinning it as witless xenophobia is a bad idea. Instead, channel the anger into productive ways because it’s entirely legitimate

    On the local leadership front, my newspaper, the Washington Post, has followed the MSM/DNC playbook and has been running a steady stream of criticism of Republican governors for some reason. Even though they’re running the charts that show the virus’ impacts almost entirely localized to New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Louisiana, Seattle, some localized California hotspots, and states that are NYC suburbs. Chicago and Philadelphia are potential next hotspots. None of these have Republican governors or mayors. On the east coast, many states (including mine) are furious at NYC and New Jersey residents fleeing the virus to our community. If we see any significant outbreaks caused by New Yorkers refusing to follow stay at home orders, people will be very angry.

    • > Then the observational-based adjustments to the projections started coming in and we are currently at 60,000, have dropped significantly twice so far this week alone, and will drop again.

      At least part of that change is due to variance in the level of mitigation versus the unknowable beforehand w/r/t what level of mitigation took place. Often, the projections were made based on levels of mitigation that were current at the time, and not projected based on mitigation which no one could have predicted would have happened (or where no one could have predicted how well people would respond to mitigation efforts). Further many of the projections were, at least to some degree, based on an increased rate of problems due to the exhaustion of resources based on the resources available at the time – not based on the unknowable aspects of how many resources were subsequently acquired. As well, many of the estimates provided a “most likely” range where we should expect variance in either direction – and what was reported were the projections at the high ends of the ranges.

      > The media narrative is that Trump and the US are uniquely mishandling the virus. The science tells us the death rate is now and will continue to be much higher in the EU.

      The facts on the ground indicate that the testing rate, and contract tracing in this country has been abysmal. We don’t have things like fever clinics. There are countries which have massively outperformed this country in those aspects, with clear benefits. There are countries in the EU which have massively outperformed this country (so far) in those aspects, with clear benefits.

      If you want to absolve the Trump administration for accountability in that regard, that’s your choice. If you want to give them credit for doing better than some countries in some respects, and absolve them of accountability for doing worse than some other countries in some aspects, that’s your choice.

      But none of those choices of yours change the facts on the ground.

    • You hit several nails on the head there, jeff.

      Particularly interesting and appalling is the hysteria over POTUS Trump stating that he was hopeful hydroxychloroquine would be a game changer. Perhaps based on existing evidence he overstated the potential, but the reaction of the left resistance including the DNC stooge media has been vicious and entirely one-sided propaganda:

      There is no evidence that HDQ is effective, and by the way it’s deadly poison.

      Docs who actually treat COVID 19 patients disagree. We have discussed here the survey of 6200 docs working in many countries that found HDQ was the preferred first-line treatment by a plurality of those surveyed. Another indication from clinicians who actually treat COVID patients and have their lives and the lives of their families on the line:

      Physician Poll: Treating COVID-19 Patients with Antimalarial Drugs
      65 Percent of Physicians in New Survey Would Give Anti-Malaria Drugs to Their Own Family to Treat COVID-19

      https://jacksoncoker.com/about/in-the-news/physician-poll-on-covid-19-chloroquine-and-hydroxychloroquine/

      • I don’t know how effective it is. There is evidence that it does well, doctors are actually smart enough to consider the side effects, they are conducting controlled tests.
        These are all things that competent people call “facts” or “strategies.”
        Therefore, incompetent people insist on denying or attempting to halt all three. What’s staggering is that these incompetents are involved in mass communication, yet are unaware of this thing called the Internet where people can easily check out nonsense claims

      • Jeff,
        And not a word of complaint from those fools about numerous other drugs that are being tried experimentally to treat COVID 19. There is no treatment for COVID 19 that has been tested in the normal expensive and lengthy clinical trial process to gain FDA approval. They target HDQ only because the Big Orange Fella mentioned it. They actually want it to fail. Terrible people and we got some here with their pom poms cheering for the virus.

      • Since when do we use polls to decide public health policy.

        But, if we want to look at polls, we ought to use one that has better than a 1% (that is ONE PERCENT) response rate.

      • jungletrunks

        “Since when do we use polls to decide public health policy”

        Ever see an Obamacare poll?

  24. “The lack of available data raises questions about the federal government’s $35 billion investment in electronic health records a decade ago, Jha and others say. The shift from paper to digital records was supposed to allow the health care system to be more nimble and provide information more quickly.”

    A good article about the antiquated system of retrieving data on our medical system. I’ve been looking at hospitalization of COVID19 patients. No consistency across the states as to reporting systems or information obtained. Sharing scarce resources in real time is just one of many benefits.

    https://www.propublica.org/article/we-still-dont-know-how-many-people-are-in-the-hospital-with-covid-19

  25. “Pope Says Virus Is Nature’s Response to the Climate Crisis.” It didn’t work out well in the days of Newton when the church determined what was true science. It’s like expecting Pharaoh’s scientist to say, ‘No sir, you’re not divine.’

  26. The “official” UK coronavirus daily death numbers have been updated:

    The UK’s daily death toll reached a new record of 980 – exceeding that of Italy at its peak on 27th March….

    I have certainly been keeping up the physical distancing, except when it comes to the other member of my household. However I have to admit that we haven’t exactly “stayed at home” all day:

    • Are the UK’s numbers from hospitals only or do they include deaths from hospices, old people’s homes etc.?

      • Phil,

        As I believe I explained in the comment I linked to:

        As of 5pm on 9 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 8,958 have died.

        Hence strangely enough the daily numbers quoted are “of those hospitalised”!

        If you had scrolled up you would have further discovered that the weekly numbers from the Office for National Statistics include:

        Deaths registered in England and Wales…. [that] mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”

        However those are published many days in arrears.

      • Mark
        Thanks – I understood that reported deaths lagged a few days but didn’t realise it was to that extent. That adds a lot of imprecision to the mix.

      • My reply was a bit time-shifted – thanks Jim and Mark for your comments.

    • Reported UK CV-19 mortality 10 April

      In order to even begin to understand the UK Gov daily deaths bulletin, the complexity of which has registered with many commentators, I would like to present the following for today’s total on 10 April.

      At the time of writing, much like yesterday’s 5 hour delay, the usual Gov web pages have not yet been updated with the overall UK total, so we have to rely on NHS England’s, England only total which has been released today and media reports.

      The reported total figure for CV-19 deaths in England for 10 April is : 8,114
      https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-another-866-die-with-covid-19-in-england-bringing-total-to-8-114-11971619

      This represents an increase on yesterday’s England total of : 866

      This additional 866 are then reported as being the daily increase in CV-19 deaths since yesterday.

      However, when the NHS England total for today is understood, a completely different picture emerges …

      The NHS England data release page is here.
      Home > Statistics > Statistical work areas > COVID-19 Daily Deaths
      https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

      This section contains information on deaths of patients who have died in hospitals in England and had tested positive for COVID-19 at time of death. All deaths are recorded against the date of death rather than the date the deaths were announced. Interpretation of the figures should take into account the fact that totals by date of death, particularly for most recent days, are likely to be updated in future releases. For example as deaths are confirmed as testing positive for COVID-19, as more post-mortem tests are processed and data from them are validated. Any changes are made clear in the daily files.

      These figures will be updated at 2pm each day and include confirmed cases reported at 5pm the previous day. Confirmation of COVID-19 diagnosis, death notification and reporting in central figures can take up to several days and the hospitals providing the data are under significant operational pressure. This means that the totals reported at 5pm on each day may not include all deaths that occurred on that day or on recent prior days.

      These figures do not include deaths outside hospital, such as those in care homes. This approach makes it possible to compile deaths data on a daily basis using up to date figures.

      Data Notes
      Data notes for COVID 19 daily deaths publication
      https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/04/Data-notes-for-COVID-19-daily-deaths-publication.docx

      Data

      COVID-19 all announced deaths
      COVID 19 total announced deaths 10 April 2020
      https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/04/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-10-April-2020.xlsx

      COVID-19 daily announced deaths
      COVID 19 daily announced deaths 10 April 2020
      https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/04/COVID-19-daily-announced-deaths-10-April-2020.xlsx

      […]

      *

      The two data links shown link to Excel format XLSX spreadsheets.
      The first link, COVID 19 total announced deaths 10 April 2020 contains the CV-19 mortality totals for England up to and including 10 April 2020
      The second link, COVID 19 daily announced deaths 10 April 2020 contains the daily CV-19 mortality totals for England announced on 10 April 2020

      So, in order to understand today’s 10 April announcement, we need to look at the second spreadsheet : COVID 19 daily announced deaths 10 April 2020

      In the daily data it can be seen that, contrary to today’s ( 10 April ) announced daily difference in England of an additional 866 deaths since yesterday’s ( 9 April ) announcement, there has in fact only been an additional 117 deaths on 9 April included in today’s “daily difference” of 866

      The remaining ( 866 – 117 ) = 749 deaths announced as “today’s additional mortality” in fact occurred on various dates all the way back to 5 March !

      Here is the relevant row from the second NHS England spreadsheet linked above : COVID 19 daily announced deaths 10 April 2020

      Coronavirus NHS England Compositoin of Daily Deaths 10 April.png

      Here are the data :

      05-Mar-20 : 1
      26-Mar-20 : 2
      27-Mar-20 : 3
      28-Mar-20 : 6
      29-Mar-20 : 1
      30-Mar-20 : 6
      31-Mar-20 : 10
      01-Apr-20 : 13
      02-Apr-20 : 15
      03-Apr-20 : 30
      04-Apr-20 : 39
      05-Apr-20 : 43
      06-Apr-20 : 70
      07-Apr-20 : 154
      08-Apr-20 : 356
      09-Apr-20 : 117

      Total : 866

      Referring back to the explanatory notes above, it is not difficult to understand the built in delays in getting this mortality data into the system, ready to be reported each day.

      It is therefore entirely understandable why today’s total is based on data as at 5pm yesterday and “that the totals reported at 5pm on each day may not include all deaths that occurred on that day or on recent prior days.”

      Things change and need to be updated retrospectively.

      But, how are we to understand and interpret reported mortality occurring 36 days ago on 5 March and every single day for the past 15 days since 26 March, being reported as “an increase on yesterday” on 10 April.

      Technically, these reported “daily increases” are not daily increases at all.

      They are a moving target of totals based on any number of previous day’s mortality, reported on any given day and which may or may not be updated subsequently
      .
      The “additional daily deaths increase” certainly does not mean an increase in deaths occurring since yesterday.

      I hope that helps.

      ***

      The UK data has now been compiled : 866 in England as per the NHS England data in the preceding post and 114 from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland = 980 UK total reported on 10 April.

      Examples of how a composite total, comprising several days of reported CV-19 mortality, is translated into sensational news by our lovely media …

      Daily Mail : Britain records Europe’s highest single-day death toll: Coronavirus deaths jump by 980 to 8,958 – surpassing Italy and Spain’s worst days – as 5,706 more patients test positive for the killer illness

      England recorded 866 new fatalities, while 114 were confirmed in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
      The death count is Britain’s darkest day yet, worse than the 938 deaths recorded on April 8 and 881 yesterday
      It also means the UK has now surpassed the deadliest days recorded in Italy (919) and Spain (950)
      Government scientist Professor Jonathan Van-Tam said lockdown efforts appear to be starting to pay off
      He described it as ‘the curve is starting to bend’ in the rate of people being admitted to hospital in London

      By Stephen Matthews Health Editor For Mailonline and Sam Blanchard Senior Health Reporter For Mailonline

      Published: 14:16, 10 April 2020 | Updated: 18:23, 10 April 2020

      Britain suffered another grim day in its coronavirus crisis today as officials recorded another 980 deaths in the home nations, taking the UK’s spiralling victim count to 8,958.

      A further 5,706 people have been diagnosed with the disease in the past 24 hours, meaning a total of 70,783 have now tested positive. Officials managed a record 19,116 tests yesterday, a marked increase in its daily effort from 10,713 yesterday.

      A total of 980 deaths makes today the worst day on record for hospitals in any country in Europe, with the previous high 950 in Spain on April 3. France, however, is recording higher death tolls – up to 2,000 in a day – because it is routinely recording deaths that happen in care homes as well as hospitals, something most nations aren’t doing.

      England recorded 866 new fatalities among infected patients in hospital, while another 114 were today confirmed in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

      The Government is pleading with British people to stay at home this bank holiday as the country looks set for summer weather. Health Secretary Matt Hancock said in today’s coronavirus briefing that people must do their part to help NHS staff who are ‘battling day and night’ to save desperately ill people. ‘They need you to stay at home,’ he told the daily briefing in Downing Street.

      […]

      *

      Guardian : Coronavirus: 980 dead in UK hospitals in deadliest day of pandemic yet
      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/coronavirus-uk-deadliest-day-deaths-announced

      Telegraph : Coronavirus latest news: UK death toll jumps 980 in 24 hours in biggest rise yet – more deadly than Spain’s worst day of crisis
      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-lockdown-extended-boris-johnson-cases-deaths/

      Independent : Coronavirus: UK records highest daily death toll of 980
      https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-cases-highest-record-latest-a9459916.html

      Sky News : Coronavirus: Another 980 die with COVID-19 in the UK – bringing total to 8,958
      https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-another-866-die-with-covid-19-in-england-bringing-total-to-8-114-11971619

      The Sun : DARKEST DAY UK coronavirus death toll jumps 980 in 24 hours in biggest rise yet – more deadly than Spain’s worst day of crisis
      https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11369113/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-latest-figures/

      etc etc

      ***

      MG

      • It’s very interesting to follow this. Here in Virginia, pretty much every daily announcement of changes in number of cases, number of hospitalizations and number of deaths reflects something that happened days and days ago. All because it takes a very long time for test results to come back.

      • Sorry Mark,

        I’m just slowly catching up with a long list of emails. Your response was far more comprehensive than mine!

  27. 15% test positive via antibody test in Germany?

    • Yes, which would mean a case fatality rate of 0.4%,
      worse than an average flu, but not as bad as 1968.

      Of course, we, as a nation and as a world, are:
      1.) older and 2.) fatter than we were in 1968.

      Still, this could be a huge -oopsie-
      If not, great.
      If so, do you think anyone could admit it?

      People probably avoid asking: “How much is a human life worth?”

      It’s really uncomfortable to fathom.
      However, it’s a decision that’s already been made.

      We’ve taken away tens of millions of jobs to save how many lives?
      Will CV deaths exceed 28,000 which is the 1% of annual deaths?
      Will all cause deaths for 2020 exceed 2019?
      Or will they be even less from the flu and pneumonia deaths avoided?

      In perspective, CV deaths will likely be far fewer than annual respiratory deaths in 1900:

    • I’ve heard that in New York City they have been testing women giving birth, there also finding 15%.

    • jungletrunks

      matthewrmarler: Only 150 Americans to Date With No Pre-Existing Conditions Have Died From the Coronavirus or 0.9%

      That’s an interesting stat; perhaps a good metric, along with age, to use in the discussion about those who can go back to work first.

      • jungle

        on investigating that subject a few days ago using the UK stats (how morbid we have become!) I was intrigued to find that statistically virtually the same percentage would have died anyway.

        This was either from unexpected natural causes (more frequent than we think in the under 40’s and as ‘unknown’ were therefore not pre existing) road accidents, suicides, murder, sports injuries etc. which tend to affect that age group disproportionately

        tonyb

  28. Discusses with US doc the possible financial incentives for Hospitals to classify patients as COVID 19 and put them on ventilators. Also Italy determination of CV deaths as reported on in Daily Telegraph:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

    “The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

    “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,” he says.

    This does not mean that Covid-19 did not contribute to a patient’s death, rather it demonstrates that Italy’s fatality toll has surged as a large proportion of patients have underlying health conditions. Experts have also warned against making direct comparisons between countries due to discrepancies in testing.

  29. These are the latest COVID19 hospitalization numbers by state with states in descending order by population.

    CA. 2800
    TX. 1200
    FL. 2360
    NY. 18,200
    PA. 2100
    IL. 3680
    OH. 1755
    GA. 2351
    NC. 398
    MI. 3800
    NJ. 7400

  30. Top science panel: COVID is unlikely to subside with warmer weather

    https://thehill.com/homesnews/news/491809-top-science-panel-coronavirus-unlikely-to-subside-with-warmer-weather

    If confirmed as spring turns to summer, bat-pango-pneumonia will look even less like cold-flu.

    • Jeeez…

      Ever wonder why people question “top science panels”?

      To be fair, the article even sez:
      ““There is some evidence to suggest that [the coronavirus] may transmit less efficiently in environments with higher ambient temperature and humidity” but then questions the effect in the face of novelty.

      BUT…

      SARS ( the first coronavirus SARS, which was also novel at the time )
      cases clearly peaked in April and went to zero by July:

      And new MERS ( another novel coronavirus ) cases in temperate South Korea, peaked in June, but ceased by July:

      From 2018 ( so there wasn’t any pandemic politics at work ) Medscape:

      There’s clear evidence that corona viruses are seasonal, petering out on average in April, which may be what we’re seeing with new cases past peak for a large number of countries:
      https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data

    • I am gonna believe those bureaucrats:

      The NAS cited similar cases, noting, “Given that countries currently in ‘summer’ climates, such as Australia and Iran, are experiencing rapid virus spread, a decrease in cases with increases in humidity and temperature elsewhere should not be assumed.”

      Past three months have not been summer in Iran. Do these people know where Iran and Australia are located?

      • Don Monfort: “Given that countries currently in ‘summer’ climates, such as Australia and Iran, are experiencing rapid virus spread, a decrease in cases with increases in humidity and temperature elsewhere should not be assumed.”

        Grouping Iran and Australia is bizarre, as you note. Meanwhile in Australia, the death rate per million is 2, For Iran it is 50, for Germany 33, and for the US 56. So, for now, Australia supports the idea that warm weather is helpful to humans vs COVID-19..

      • Right, last time I looked most of the warmer parts of the planet weren’t bad off.

    • For flu humidity is the big factor followed by heat. There is also a possibility that UV is a factor.

      It did seem like there is some seasonality to SARS and mers. This virus behaves similarly to sars-1 in the environment. In the body there is likely much higher viral load and shedding causing it to spread much more in that may overwhelm any potential weather factors.

      https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

  31. Nobody said that polls decide public health policy, jimmy virus cheerleader. Do you think docs treating the particular problem might have some expertise and experience to help form public policy? They didn’t ask for input from jokers like you.

    Docs are busy. 1200 is a representative sample for an opinion survey. It’s an opinion survey. Not public policy. It’s about what those docs would do to protect themselves and their families. If the survey results had indicated the docs’ supported the anti-Trump agenda, it’s ineffective and poison , you would have been all over it. We know your game. Why do you hang here peddling with your pro-Red China pro-virus trash?

  32. My long wait is over:

    • At the rate they are backtracking, in a week or so the model will predict more births attributed to the virus than deaths.

    • Why speculate when the answer is on their website.

      Since our last release, we have been able to include four more days of reported daily deaths for the UK (April 6, 7, 8, 9). The combination of a slower increase in daily deaths reported than previously captured and updated values for gamma based on more locations’ COVID-19 epidemics peaking (as described above) has resulted in notably lower average projections for the UK: at the same predicted peak date for daily COVID-19 deaths, the prediction is now 1,674 deaths (estimate range of 651 to 4,143) on the peak day and 37,494 cumulative deaths (estimate range of 26,149 to 62,519) through the first wave.

      As summarized in the table below, these updates result in substantial changes to the mean COVID-19 death predictions. Their uncertainty intervals – values reported in parentheses – do overlap, reflecting the inherent uncertainty of generating projections and especially on the basis of rapidly changing data landscapes.

      http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

  33. Robert Clark

    Covid-19 cases daily change USA 7:00 PM EDT
    Date total cases % change
    4/4/2020 32428
    -14.5%
    4/5/2020 27725
    +o.8%
    4/6/2020 27948
    +1.8%
    4/7/2020 28465
    +28.6
    4/8/2020 36616
    -23.1%
    4/9/2020 28134
    +24.1%
    4/10/2020 34931
    Total 4/6 177,860
    4/7 175,827
    4/8 185,753
    4/9 177,164
    4/10 184,412
    Hopefully the percentage of tests went up much greater than 24.1%
    Another 34,931 potential carriers into 14 day quarantine

  34. jungletrunks

    Anyone hear of Event 201?

    October 18, 2019 — a 3.5-hour pandemic tabletop exercise that simulated a series of dramatic, scenario-based facilitated discussions, confronting difficult, true-to-life dilemmas associated with response to a hypothetical, but scientifically plausible, pandemic.

    Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms.

    The next severe pandemic will not only cause great illness and loss of life but could also trigger major cascading economic and societal consequences that could contribute greatly to global impact and suffering. The Event 201 pandemic exercise, conducted on October 18, 2019, vividly demonstrated a number of these important gaps in pandemic preparedness as well as some of the elements of the solutions between the public and private sectors that will be needed to fill them. The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, World Economic Forum, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation jointly propose these recommendations…

    An invitation-only audience of nearly 130 people attended the exercises, and a livestream of the event was available to everyone.

    http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/about

  35. > Each of those deaths is a tragedy, and a horror. It is also a numerator, or part of one. The denominator is made up of how many people out there contracted the disease. And the fraction tells you, in theory, roughly how bad the outlook will be when the disease has finally passed through the entire population (which, barring the arrival of a vaccine, may take longer than the achieving of “herd immunity,” which is our clearest path back to “normal” life). The bigger that denominator, the less severe the disease at the population level: If roughly 13,000 Americans have died out of a total number of infected of 400,000 (the current “confirmed” case number), that is a pandemic nightmare of a certain scale; if 13,000 Americans have died out of a total number of infected of 4,000,000, that implies a final toll of a different, considerably lesser scale; and if the total number of infected is 40,000,000, even more so, with hospitalization and case fatality rates much, much lower as a result. It would also suggest that we are much further along the timeline of the pandemic and much closer to its conclusion. The bigger that denominator, the more people caught the coronavirus without realizing it, and the more people that caught the coronavirus without realizing it, the less severe the disease looks, and the faster we’ll likely get through its brutality and emerge into a strange-seeming post-pandemic future.

    So, how big is that denominator number? Unfortunately, we don’t know. Worse, in the U.S., it is at this point, and for the very foreseeable future, unknowable. A second-order outrage about the pathetic, outrageous lack of test kits, and the backlog processing even the tests we do have, is that in addition to limiting our ability to treat those patients we know are ill and to take public-health measures to protect the vulnerable parts of our population, we have very little sense of the scale of the outbreak we are dealing with. When we can’t even test all those patients who show up at hospitals complaining of symptoms, we are miles from a clear sense of how many other people might be carrying the disease around — infecting others, of course, but also changing the size of that denominator. This is one of the reasons there has been so much recent enthusiasm for the possibility of what’s called serological testing, which can tell anyone, even the asymptomatic, if they’ve already acquired immunity. Until we do institute large-scale serological and “community testing” of that kind, we will be living in darkness. <
    ………..

    So my hope is that for all the testing failure this far, there will be enough pressure and incentive for the fees to get community antibody testing done quickly.

    Or maybe it will just have to get done at the state level.

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/best-case-scenario-for-coronavirus.html

    • With respect to that article (and it’s quality discussion of uncertainty)…

      Keep in mind, if you are looking to find something that happens 1 case in 1000, Assume you always find it when it is there. Assume that your false negative rate is 1%. Then in 1000 cases you find 1 true positive and 10 false positives, so the probability that you have a true positive given a positive test is <10 %

      And then there's developing a reliable test, and then getting it out (who would have predicted such crap with the testing so far?), then verifying someone's results.

  36. Stanford University immunologist John Ioannidis calls out media for panicking the public over COVID-19
    https://www.straight.com/covid-19-pandemic/stanford-university-researcher-john-ioannidis-relies-on-data-to-puncture-some-of-myths-about

    Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1

    • The website he calls out is not run by the media; it’s run by Johns Hopkins.

      More people may die from the flattening the curve than not flattening the curve? Allowing the disease to run completely amok? No math; plenty of utterly frightening alarmism. Dead people all over the place because? Because? I guess because heart attack victims are stacking up unattended on the sidewalks outside of hospitals. I guess.

      Is anybody still taking this guy seriously? Sorry, Johnny Uionnitus has gotten himself back to the Super Bowl and has again thrown 10 picks.

      The public is too alarmed? Whom is he talking about? Is it the people in Washington state who decided to hold a socially-distanced choir practice? Looking at the outcome, I would say they were insufficiently alarmed, as are a lot of young people, many of whom, while they will live, are suffering a horrendous disease course that will possibly traumatize them for the rest of their lives. But hey, a lot of people die each year. That’s some PhD deep stuff.

      • Yeah. Interesting that he’s worried about a drawn out period of hospitals being overwhelmed as apposed to keeping the curve below the point of them being overwhelmed.

        And hey, what 40 year old doesn’t like a forced extended 2 week vacation stuck in bed? No economic costs from that, eh?

    • Ioannidis should be taken very seriously. He’s a very good statistician and physician. He has one of the most highly cited papers of the last 20 years on “why most research results are wrong.”

      I don’t know JCH why you are panicing. Even the badly flawed WHO top line statistics of cases and deaths show the case fatality rate for those under 40 is 0.2%. That number has stayed constant over time. If you are in your 70’s or 80’s and already in ill health you need to be more worried.

      AGE DEATH RATE
      80+ years old. 14.8%
      70-79 years old 8.0%
      60-69 years old. 3.6%
      50-59 years old. 1.3%
      40-49 years old. 0.4%
      30-39 years old. 0.2%
      20-29 years old. 0.2%
      10-19 years old. 0.2%
      0-9 years old no fatalities

      • One, I didn’t panic. My household includes family member who is in their 90’s. I began isolating very early. Show me where there is one single iota of panic in what I did?

        The people who panicked are called the President of the United States and the Prime Minister of the UK.

        “why most research results are wrong.”

        Speaking of bad research, has Johnny opined on the 30-person sample with the missing dead people the White House is so sold on?

      • What 30 person sample? If its the chloraquine thing, no one knows the answer yet with certainty. Lots of physicians are prescribing it. Side effects usually take years to develop so its quite safe to use for short periods.

      • A guess does not make medical research correct. He guessed.

        Where did I panic?

      • Typical incredibly biased report from left loon media. You would thin that HDQ is some poison based witches brew used without regards to safety or effectiveness by well-connected Republicans:

        https://www.npr.org/2020/04/10/830348837/covid-19-patients-given-unproven-drug-in-texas-nursing-home-garnering-criticism

        Just the facts report from Turkey on use of HDQ:

        https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/coronavirus-turkey-hydroxychloroquine-malaria-treatment-progress

        Statistics released by the Turkish health ministry on Tuesday showed that since beginning the treatment, new cases of lung disease among coronavirus patients have greatly decreased.

        On 24 March, 60 percent of coronavirus cases registered were patients with pneumonia, while on 6 April that had fallen to 19.5 percent.

        turkey coronavirus pneomonia

      • JCH

        The PM was ‘panicked’ by over reliance on models from sources that had wildly over reacted before but were considered the ‘best science’

        Are you suggesting we shouldn’t follow the ‘best science’? Perhaps there is a lesson there in other fields that modelling and reality are often far apart unless you consider all the facts?

        tonyb

      • Still haven’t learned how to count mitigation.

        Johnny Uioannidis – agrees a lot of people are going to die. He does not disagree with early models at all.

        And I bet he would agree instantly with me on this: if nothing had been done current death tolls would be in millions, perhaps tens of millions.

        Nothing includes:

        1. no response at all by China or any other Asian country
        2. no interruption of international travel
        3. no orders to stay in place
        4. no shutdowns of schools

      • JCH

        I know of no one that says you do nothing. If a 40 tonne truck was heading towards you would you take action? Of course you would. the question is whether you would stand out of its way or run 1000 yards to a deep cellar and hide there

        Anyway I didn’t think you liked Johnny Uioannidis

        tonyb

      • Of course I like him; he says climate science is peachy keen.

    • Stanford’s Dr. Ioannidis: Reliable Data Can End the COVID-19 Lockdown
      https://www.thenationalherald.com/297265/stanfords-dr-ioannidis-reliable-data-can-end-the-lockdown/

  37. Who said all wars are banker wars? A crown scapegoat! Weaponized medicine. If the invisible co2 doesn’t get you how about a virus or two.

    The elephant in the room now flies and orbits the skies!

    For blessed sake! We already know EMFs can lower immunity, open blood-brain barrier, etc, etc and so forth.

    VGCC- VOLTAGE VOLTAGE VOLTAGE

  38. Can microwave radiation exposure mimic the symptoms we see on the ground?
    Well isn’t that a worthwhile inquiry or taboo?

    “Cities do not have the right to “say no” to 5G. FCC regulations prevent cities from objecting on the basis of health concerns – they only can speak to issues of aesthetics and the practical matter of the placement of equipment.

    They are required to “say yes,” and they better do it quickly, or telecom companies will threaten them with legal action for obstructing their plans”
    https://strangesounds.org/2019/01/5g-satellites-space-problem.html

  39. Wild Goose Chase

  40. Regarding seasonality,

    I reshaded this interesting graphic such that Coronavirus shows up in a more distinguishable pink:

    b. represents virus expression from primary care visits
    d. represents virus expression from hospitalizations

    These data were from Scotland but correlate with more generalized seasonality.

    What I find interesting is that some respiratory viruses ( influenza, coronaviruses ) wane dramatically with summer ( speculated Temperature/Humidity/UV ) while others ( parainfluenza and rhinovirus )
    seem to be directly out of phase, peaking in summer.

    This may argue for the seasonality not being external effects on the virus but rather internal due to changes in the human host.

    • Yes I’ve been monitoring this site. Overall mortality is still below the 2016-17 peak for the 24 countries even though for some like Italy it is higher. I estimate that there were 120,000 extra deaths over “normal” in the 2016-17 flu season.

      What I think may be happening is that when more complete numbers are available, all cause mortality may actually be not so high because social distancing has also prevented a lot of accidental deaths and flu deaths.

  41. Pingback: CoV Discussion Thread III — Climate Etc. – It's Karl

    • Little sketchy on the details and no control, but I would guess it has some value. The writers who slapped this story together maybe should be fired:

      “Twelve patients, 23%, had serious side effects including multiple-organ-dysfunction syndrome, septic shock and acute kidney injury.”

      Those look more like very common symptoms of COVID 19 patients on ventilators. Very unlikely they are side effects of the drug. And how would they know, since there is no control group.

  42. Robert Clark

    COVID-19 site I am Stopped showing USA daily results. Only showing global.
    Daily readings at 7:00 PM EDT 34931
    CDT daily
    4/11/2020 7:33 35659
    11:11 31459
    12:25 30261
    I have been watching this during the day and doing my thing at 7:00 PM EDT
    This morning the USA readings were as above then they stopped.
    They started to only give Global. I think they belive the old guy will have a heart attack.

  43. stevenreincarnated

    0.37% case fatality rate it appears from a German antibody study. Can we get back to work now?

    • I am going to make some guesses. I guess that if NY went back to work 10 million more people could get infected, resulting in 37,000 more fatalities. Whoever makes that decision is out on a skinny limb. Most ther jurisdictions not

    • Steve
      The percentages are irrelevant.
      The only important fact is the sharp tail.
      There is a wide spectrum of outcomes of covid19 virus infection from nothing (most people especially young) to mild illness but extending to fatal pneumonia in a very few (mostly but not only old). The severe end of the spectrum – the sharp tail – is much more serious than in most flu strains. You have to go back to 1918 to find a flu that was worse than covid19.

      The sharp tail is short and accounts for only a very small percentage. But human population is large – tens to hundreds of millions. Such large numbers multiplied by even a very small percentage – results in overwhelmed intense care units in hospitals. Something that has not happened with the flu since 1918. That’s the point.

      • phil

        which raises the interesting question of likely deaths today if Spanish flu killed between 18 and 50 million in 1918 with a global population of 1.8 billion, if all things were equal would the death toll with todays 7 billion have been going on for 100 million? Which puts the CV pandemic in better context.

        tonyb

      • stevenreincarnated

        Spanish Flu, Asian Flu, Hong Kong Flu, and Seasonal Influenza in Japan under Social and Demographic Influence: Review and Analysis Using the Two-Population Model
        Hiroshi Yoshikura
        Jpn. J. Infect. Dis., 67 245-257, 2014

        Case Fatality Rates:
        Spanish Flu: 3 waves, 1.22%, 5.29%, 1.65%
        Asian Flu: 0.8%
        Hong Kong Flu: 0.8%
        Looks a lot closer to the Asian and Hong Kong Flu rates than the Spanish Flu and only about half that rate. Considering the aging population in developed countries it is remarkable we haven’t had much worse recently.

    • Tony
      As I understand it spanish flu also killed by viral pneumonia and immune over-reaction / cytokine storm. But it provoked this reaction in young healthy adults – their youth and vigour (and that of their immune systems) worked against them in a deadly manner. so no – I don’t think that even unchecked the coronavirus would kill the same number as spanish flu. Certainly not as a % of population – there are more people now, especially old.

  44. Didn’t finish that thought, but skip it. Point is, whoever tells folks they can go back to work will have some political hack hang the subsequent casualties around their necks.

    • stevenreincarnated

      There will be blame regardless. Opened up too soon and killed people or didn’t open up soon enough and killed the economy. Best to do what makes sense. Besides, you can keep that death rate way down by keeping the at risk group in quarantine.

    • It is a very serious Global Crisis. Countries, people should unite to overcome the COVID 19. The effort is international.
      The strategies should be common strategies at the end of the day. No country can be considered in good rate when there is a country which is yet in crisis.
      The crisis shows we are people on the same planet, we have the same destiny here.
      Here in Greece, due to the early measures taken by our government, we have considerably low death rate.
      I am very concerned when reading some countries with much higher rate are going to open schools and shops.
      What they see is that their curve has flattened. Maybe so, but it has flattened at the rates of 1.000 deaths per day.
      Here in Greece we have 93 deaths from the beginning of crisis in total.
      Our death rate also have flattened.
      I am very worried in some countries they stopping the measures.
      Here the strict measures stay till April 27. And we shall see what happens after..

  45. “I am not in any position to produce incriminating evidence against any person, institution or a state, it isn’t my job nor it is my wish to do so. I am a writer not a detective. Yet I maintain that evaluating the corona crisis as a crime may make those who plan to survive the pandemic feel a little safer in a world that long ago has lost its way”

    https://gilad.online/writings/2020/4/11/a-viral-pandemic-or-a-crime-scene

  46. JOe - dallas

    “Fauci: There’s no evidence that the anti-malaria drug Trump pushes works against virus [link]”

    Typical crap from the guardian –

    Trump made the statement on March 21. The Fauci’s response was on March 22nd, the guardian article was published April 5th. The reported results to the anti maliaria drug has been very positive tin the last 2-3 weeks

    from the Guardian article – “On 21 March, the day after another nationally televised Trump claim that the drug “looked promising”, Fauci was asked directly if it could be used to treat Covid-19.

    “The answer is no,” he said.

    Last month, a man in Arizona died after he and his wife took chloroquine phosphate, an additive used to clean fish tanks that is also found in hydroxychloroquine.”

  47. Inside the US COV testing failure [link]- Seems like bueacratic failure

    That being said, The virus may have been in the US much earlier than early Febuary. In 3rd week of january, Husband Wife couple from AZ (age 60 moderately athletic) apparently caught the virus or a similar virus with very similar symptoms as covid, but can not get tested since there are insufficient tests available (at least three weeks ago)

  48. Robert Clark

    Covid-19 cases daily change USA 7:00 PM EDT
    Date total cases % change
    4/5/2020 27725
    +o.8%
    4/6/2020 27948
    +1.8%
    4/7/2020 28465
    +28.6
    4/8/2020 36616
    -23.1%
    4/9/2020 28134
    +24.1%
    4/10/2020 34931
    -14.1%
    4/11/2020 29972
    Total 4/6 177,860
    4/7 175,827
    4/8 185,753
    4/9 177,164
    4/10 184,412
    4/11 213,791
    They began updating a couple oh hours ago.

  49. a hydroxychloroquine trial in Texas
    https://www.npr.org/2020/04/10/830348837/covid-19-patients-given-unproven-drug-in-texas-nursing-home-garnering-criticism

    Why is it disconcerting if almost everyone in NY who wants it is receiving it? This does not, on this account, look worse than the widely reported French “trials”.

    • The use in this case appears to comply with the Emergency Use Authorization of the FDA. What’s the problem? The problem is the Bad Orange Man thinks it’s a good idea and the Doc is a Republican. And the State of Texas is run by a Republican. Not a peep about HDQ being used in NY and Cuomo asking the feds for more:

      https://www.fda.gov/media/136534/download

      See the results from Turkey, in my comment above. This stuff works.

    • Why is it disconcerting if almost everyone in NY who wants it is receiving it?

      If you are talking about the Navarro quote, he referred to a Dr. Katz. There are lots doctors named Katz, but in New York there is one who is in charge of the NYC municipal healthcare system. He was quoted in a NYT’s article about the miracle drug.

      • So, what is that supposed to mean? There was a two patient trial and it reduced cough and fever, and there were mild side effects? That is really sketchy. That’s was all you could find to attempt to denigrate Matt’s statement that HDQ is widely used in NY. That’s all I have to say, but insert all the stuff about your motives that Judith deletes, because you whine about it.

        Judith often leaves a lot of terrible stuff alone as long as it’s accompanied by a graph, or whatever. This is report on positive results of a HDQ study of 1061 COVID 19 patients by Dr. Raoult that the doc recently discussed in a lengthy meeting with France boss Macron, who flew down to Marseilles because this HDQ is important:

        COVID 19 Grim Reaper raging through nursing homes. Maybe more need to do what the Republican doc is doing in Texas nursing home. Give the HDQ to them before they are given the ticket to heaven by placing them on ventilators:

        https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/more-2-200-coronavirus-deaths-nursing-homes-federal-government-isn-n1181026

      • Try it again. If it doesn’t work you can search it on youtube:

        Breaking News: The Latest On Hydroxychloroquine

  50. Lefty comic who occasionally enrages his birds of a feather comrades by telling the truth:

    New Rule: Virus Shaming | Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)

  51. nobodysknowledge

    Good point dpy6629: “Overall mortality is still below the 2016-17 peak for the 24 countries even though for some like Italy it is higher. I estimate that there were 120,000 extra deaths over “normal” in the 2016-17 flu season. What I think may be happening is that when more complete numbers are available, all cause mortality may actually be not so high because social distancing has also prevented a lot of accidental deaths and flu deaths.”
    To get a better impression of the mortality of COVID-19, we should look at the mortality from week 13. The studies that have been done show that the official COVID-19 deaths in many places are much smaller than the general death rate shows. I have seen studies done in Italy and Netherlands. Many places in Italy there were excess deaths of more than tenfold of the usual.

    • nobodysknowledge

      Of US death undercount. From New York Times:
      “Hospital officials, public health experts and medical examiners say that official tallies of Americans said to have died in the pandemic do not capture the overall number of virus-related deaths, leaving the public with a limited understanding of the outbreak’s true toll.”

      • I’m of two minds about the lethality. On the one hand there seems to be indications it is deadlier than normal flu, for unknown reasons. On the other hand, if you separate the NYC Metro area from the rest of the country, the deaths are 0.00003 of the population. Maybe 0.000003 of the rest of the country if no underlying conditions.

      • nobodysknowledge

        Italy death undercount. From: The Italian Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). Mortality data sent by a selection of towns across Italy based on the latest census, in particular, the total deaths between 2020–03–01 and 2020–03–21.
        https://towardsdatascience.com/covid-19-excess-mortality-figures-in-italy-d9640f411691
        “This means that with a subset of 56.48% of the population, the figures show 5067 excess deaths (i.e. 891.8 deaths per 1M pop) which are greater than 3072 (305.4 deaths per 1M pop), the official COVID-19 deaths toll across the whole of Lombardy.”

      • nobodysknowledge

        From Reuters, April 8th: “The daily tally of New York City residents who died at home with coronavirus-like symptoms exploded from 45 on March 20 to 241 on April 5, according to Fire Department of New York data – suggesting the city may be significantly undercounting COVID-19 deaths.”

      • nobodys knowledge

        From your link

        “In particular, we can notice a strong concentration of purple in the areas across Lombardy and Emilia where there is currently the biggest outbreak, especially in the provinces of Bergamo, Piacenza, Brescia. If we look at the data of the larger cities, Bergamo has the biggest increase 294%, followed by Piacenza 201%, Brescia 109%, Parma 103%, Pavia 41%, Mantua 22% and Milan 17%.”

        Bergamo is the centre for a large rural area and is itself a large city. it has a big hospital where presumably patients from local smaller towns and villages would be sent.

        So the figures are likely to reflect this rather than that bergamo itself was so badly hit. It is one of our favourite cities by the way

        tonyb

      • nobodysknowledge

        I understood these numbers to be based on data from districts, not from hospitals. “mortality data sent by a selection of towns across Italy based on the latest census”

      • Tony –

        I wonder after this, how many Bergamasque speakers will be left?

      • This local perspective might explain why Lombardy is deep purple and in deep doo doo:

        https://frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/04/italys-communist-recipe-disaster-frontpagemagcom/

        But the sector in which Chinese companies invested most was Italy’s profitable fashion industry. The Pinco Pallino, Miss Sixty, Sergio Tacchini, Roberta di Camerino and Mariella Burani brands have been acquired by 100%.

        Designer Salvatore Ferragamo sold 16% and Caruso sold 35%. The most famous case is Krizia, purchased in 2014 by Shenzhen Marisfrolg Fashion Company, one of the leaders of high-priced, ready-to-wear fashions in Asia.

        Throughout all of these purchases and acquisitions, Renzi’s government afforded the Chinese unrestricted and unfettered access to Italy and its financial markets, many coming through without customs inspections.

        Quite literally, tens of thousands of Chinese came in through Milano (illegally) and went back out carrying money, technology, and corporate secrets.

        Thousands more were allowed to enter and disappeared into shadows of Milano and other manufacturing cities of Lombardy, only to surface in illegal sewing shops, producing knock-off designer clothes and slapping ‘Made In Italy’ labels on them. All with the tacit approval of the Renzi government.

        It was not until there was a change in the governing party in Italy that the sweatshops and the illegal entry and departure of Chinese nationals was stopped. Matteo Salvini, representing the Lega Nord party, closed Italy’s ports to immigrants and systematically began disassembling the sweatshops and deporting those in Italy illegally.

        But his rise to power was short-lived. Italy is a communist country. Socialism is in the national DNA. Ways were found to remove Salvini, after which the communist party, under the direction of Giuseppe Conte, reopened the ports. Immediately, thousands of unvetted, undocumented refugees from the Middle East and East Africa began pouring in again.

        Access was again provided to the Chinese, under the old terms, and as a consequence thousands of Chinese, the majority from Wuhan, began arriving in Milano.

        In December of last year, the first inklings of a coronavirus were noticed in Lombardy – in the Chinese neighborhoods. There is no doubt amongst senior medical officials that the virus was brought here from China.

        By the end of January 2020 cases were being reported left and right. By mid-February the virus was beginning to seriously overload the Lombardy hospitals and medical clinics. They are now in a state of collapse.

      • Don –

        > Italy is a communist country.

        Thanks for posting that. Gives me some more insight into how some people are ‘thinking’ all this through.

      • It’s pretty obvious there is something particularly bad about this virus. We do not typically have to build makeshift hospitals and morgues or dig trenches for temporary burials. If the number of cases needing hospitalization were routinely this high every flu season, we would have built out the hospitals and ICUs to accommodate the load.

        Whatever the death rate is, it must be significantly higher than ordinary flu for the virus in its current form. Anybody who argues otherwise has to ignore the body bags.

        We still just a partial view into what this virus is doing.

        1- We don’t have enough testing to have a clue what the infection rate is.
        2- The virus is just now beginning to make presence felt in many parts of the country, particularly the rural areas. Just as we are talking about opening things up?!
        3- Many people die in their homes and may be uncounted as CV deaths.
        4- People may be dying of heart attacks and strokes because they cannot get emergency care because of the virus cases overloading the emergency rooms.
        5- The combination of 3 and 4 may almost double the excess mortality caused by the virus.

        We might luck out and the spread will abate with warmer weather. The virus might mutate to less virulent form. We won’t know the full story for months most likely.

      • You very efficiently debunked that local’s description of conditions and events he has seen with his own eyes, joshie. I wonder how many times you and your birds of a feather comrades have called our current government fascist.

    • nobodysknowledge

      And some UK undercount.
      Look at the death statistics to see how the difference between 2020 and earlier years comes out. In UK the death rate follows the common trend to March 20th, then the trends differ. Deaths of the yearly flu go down on this time of the year. Ant this decrease should be stronger with the measures that are taken this year. Statistics end up with 1000 more deaths than usual after one week, March 27th. The trend goes in the opposite direction, upwards. And it is about twice the official COVID-19 deaths
      https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending27march2020#deaths-registered-by-week

      • nobodysknowledge

        Jason Oke, senior statistician at the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences in Oxford:
        ‘The worry is that we discover in six months that the numbers are way larger because no one was counting what was happening in care homes.’

    • nobodysknowledge

      And Netherlands death undercount.
      The Dutch Statistics Netherlands reports that 2000 more people died in the Netherlands in week 14 in 2020 than is usual during this period. That’s what the Dutch newspaper Telegraaf writes. The total number of deaths is about 5,100 people. A standing share of the dead are older people over 80 years. The statistics deal with all types of deaths. Last week, the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) estimated that more than 1,600 more people died in the second half of March than average. Of these, 603 are determined to be due to coronavirus. The statisticians give no theories as to why the number of deaths is so much higher than has been the case.

    • nobodysknowledge

      And Spain undercount: From Spanish newspaper.
      https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/notes-on-excess-mortality-1-spain
      “The basic numbers. In 2019 they estimate there were 2,394 deaths between March 14th and March 31st in the Madrid region. In 2020 that number was 9,007. So a difference of 6,613. But the number of official COVID-19 deaths during that period was 3,439. So simple math, 3,174 unexplained deaths.”

      • nobodysknowledge

        From another paper:
        “However, there has been growing speculation that officials may have grossly underestimated the death toll. Authorities in the Madrid region acknowledged on Wednesday that the number of deaths in retirement homes could be five times as high as that announced by health officials, who have not included almost 3,500 deaths of people who had not been tested for the virus.”

  52. My dear, He IS risen! What IS He or She or they/them/theirs not excluding IT? LOGOS! I hardly ever imagine being an IT or trans-human but if subhuman’s exist they surely will appear as you and me and he and she.

    Going beyond the obsessive compulsive death counting with highly questionable reliability and trustworthiness we move to the WHO’s done it virus blame game, then onward to vaccine pushers and fear hookers.

    The dreaded route 66 controlled demolition of the mind spins like that old vinyl record player stuck in the grove. It could be a new form of torture as your favorite song goes into lock down.
    Doom and Gloom if you open or close the economy with or without this or that or the other. Reminds one of the Sufi story, “The Water of Madness” Drink the flat screen projections in tell-a-vision sessions. Toast the gram, a holo 3D friend of Pan!

    Mood: Ecc: 7.29; Lo, this only have I found, that God hath made man upright; but they have sought out many inventions.

  53. Boris Johnson fully resurrected on Easter Sunday …

    MG

    • Evenin’ Mark,

      And how do you suppose the Mail on Sunday reported said “miracle”?

      http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/04/covid-19-in-the-united-kingdom/#comment-329228

      The Prime Minister plans to recuperate at Chequers after his release from hospital but, with a further 979 coronavirus deaths announced yesterday, bringing the total in the UK to 9,937, his allies insist he will control the vital process of when – and how – Britain emerges from the lockdown.

      Chequers is the UK Prime Minister’s country residence. Hence my “skeptical” thoughts on the matter:

      Who can say how many of what type of almost life forms Boris might currently be conveying from the Covid-19 Westminster hot spot out into the Great British countryside?

      We mere mortals are expected to lockdown in place on pain of a fine or prison whilst our lords and masters go where and when they please.

      At the very least non Mail readers are surely given good cause to doubt the PM’s incessant “Stay home. Save lives” mantra?

  54. Hi Judith This came from a friend and I thought you might be able to help….? Hi Patti Do you know anyone who could use this information? I send a previous version of this to a newspaper but suspect it went into the junk mail.

    I have been somewhat preoccupied with a thought, that I have not seen any discussion on relative to the apparent highly infectious nature of this particular disease. The very high incidence of medical staff and others in closed environments becoming infected, seems very unusual but may be related to the relative humidity. The extremely rapid spread in residences and care facilities is alarming. Cruise ships also fit this hypothetical environment (which is deliberately controlled to a low humidity value inside)

    I am not a doctor (obviously) but have used physics and other scientific disciplines in my work for many years (I am an inventor with over 150 issued patents in many different disciplines). Over the past few years I have been quite focussed on evaporation and vaporization of various types (as a result of a couple of projects I have been working on), which has lead me to perhaps a somewhat focussed understanding of the vaporization / evaporation phenomenon which are generally taken for granted by most.

    I have been researching and understand that the virus particles that cause the disease (COVID-19) have a mean diameter of about 120nm. Airborne water droplets (in clouds or other forms of airborne water droplets such as exhaled breath) range in size from 1.0 to 10.0 microns, about 8 to 83 times the diameter of the virus. Such droplets will easily carry virus particles as has been widely publicized. In cold weather or inside a large refrigerator it is a common experience to be able to visibly see the water droplets in exhaled breath (this is because they tend to condense together becoming larger and thus visible to the naked eye) and even in some cases “steam” (water droplets) can be observed rising off a warm person in a cool environment.

    The cool environment in the above examples allows the water droplets to become visible, but the same water droplets (although possibly smaller) will always be present around people who are breathing or speaking or moving around and not only when a person may be coughing or sneezing (which results in an amplification of water droplet emissions).

    In a closed environment these water droplets (possibly containing virus particles) will fill the air in that closed environment until they are removed by the ventilation system (assuming there is one) or by condensation on a cool surface (as is often observed on cool windows as mist or fogging up). Anyone sharing the air in that environment may be inhaling the same air born water droplets (face masks will probably not dry the air being inhaled) possibly also carrying the virus.

    Deliberately Increasing the relative humidity in closed environments will reduce the water vapour (and waterborne virus particles) exhaled by everyone. This principle is based on well known scientific principles related to vapour pressure. Increasing the environmental relative humidity, decreases the evaporation rate of water from any source in that environment including humans breathing or perspiring (perhaps including virus).

    I am curious if any attempt to significantly increase the relative humidity in infectious areas such as hospitals or public buildings is being considered as a means to reduce the evaporation of potentially contaminated water droplets from infected individuals. I have no clue who to ask or how to suggest that this may help to reduce the shedding of virus particles by infected individuals via reduced water loss.

    If the relative humidity is high, less evaporation and water loss (and the possible virus particles) from people who may or may not be infected, as compared to a relatively lower humidity level.

    It seems to me that deliberately maintaining a high humidity level in such areas should reduce the probability of infection by reducing the water emissions in general from people in the area.

    It seems possible that infection rate spread will be highest in low relative humidity spaces / places. It may not be very difficult to increase the relative humidity in these areas, even if it would be less comfortable as a place to be.

    How would this message be fact checked and disseminated if confirmed?

    Best Regards:

    Kevin

    Sent from my iPad

    >

  55. Media Fueled Panics, Govt Failure & Defying Lockdown | Jeffrey A. Tucker

    With Dave Rubin.

    Government bleeped it up. Yes. Both sides are guilty.

  56. WHO should declare climate change a public health emergency
    Published 30 March 2020
    Rapid and potentially irreversible climate change poses a direct threat to global public health. Andrew Harmer and colleagues argue that WHO should recognise this in the same way as global threats from specific diseases
    https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m797

    TeenAge Super Sleuths (TASS )
    https://tinyurl.com/yxfjedum

  57. Abstract
    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relative risk of COVID-19 death in people <65 years old versus older individuals in the general population, to provide estimates of absolute risk of COVID-19 death at the population level, and to understand what proportion of COVID-19 deaths occur in non-elderly people without underlying diseases in epicenters of the pandemic. ELIGIBLE DATA: Countries and US states or major cities with at least 250 COVID-19 deaths as of 4/4/2020 and with information available on death counts according to age strata, allowing to calculate the number of deaths in people with age <65. Data were available for Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland, as well as Louisiana, Michigan, Washington states and New York City as of April 4, 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of COVID-19 deaths that occur in people <65 years old; relative risk of COVID-19 death in people <65 versus ≥65 years old; absolute risk of death in people <65 and in those ≥80 years old in the general population as of 4/4/2020; absolute death risk expressed as equivalent of death risk from driving a motor vehicle. RESULTS: Individuals with age <65 account for 5%-9% of all COVID-19 deaths in the 8 European epicenters, and approach 30% in three US hotbed locations. People <65 years old had 34- to 73-fold lower risk than those ≥65 years old in the European countries and 13- to 15-fold lower risk in New York City, Louisiana and Michigan. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death ranged from 1.7 per million for people <65 years old in Germany to 79 per million in New York City. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death for people ≥80 years old ranged from approximately 1 in 6,000 in Germany to 1 in 420 in Spain. The COVID-19 death risk in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the death risk from driving between 9 miles per day (Germany) and 415 miles per day (New York City). People <65 years old and not having any underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.3%, 0.7%, and 1.8% of all COVID-19 deaths in Netherlands, Italy, and New York City. CONCLUSIONS: People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in the hotbeds of the pandemic and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1

  58. In a serological pilot study, the German virologist Hendrick Streeck comes to the interim result that the lethality of Covid19 is at 0.37% and the mortality (based on the total population) at 0.06%. These values are about ten times lower than those of the WHO and about five times lower than those of Johns Hopkins University.

    Click to access zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf

  59. A Danish study with 1500 blood donors found that the lethality of Covid19 is only 1.6 per thousand, i.e. more than 20 times lower than originally assumed by the WHO and thus in the range of a strong (pandemic) influenza. At the same time Denmark has decided to reopen schools and kindergartens next week.
    https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/doedelighed-skal-formentlig-taelles-i-promiller-danske-blodproever-kaster-nyt-lys
    https://www.thelocal.dk/20200406/denmark-to-reopen-schools-and-kindergartens-next-week

  60. A serological study in the US state of Colorado comes to the preliminary conclusion that the lethality of Covid19 has been overestimated by a factor of 5 to a factor of 20 and is likely to be in the range between normal and pandemic influenza.
    https://reason.com/2020/04/08/mass-antibody-testing-in-this-rural-colorado-county-sheds-light-on-covid-19s-prevalence-and-lethality/

  61. A study conducted by the Medical University of Vienna concluded that the age and risk profile of Covid19 deaths is similar to normal mortality.
    https://www.vienna.at/analyse-zeigt-covid-19-opferkurve-entspricht-normaler-mortalitaet/6581246

  62. A study in the Journal of Medical Virology concludes that the internationally used coronavirus test is unreliable: In addition to the already known problem of false positive results, there is also a „potentially high“ rate of false negative results, i.e. the test does not respond even in symptomatic individuals, while in other patients it does respond once and then again not. This makes it more difficult to exclude other flu-like illnesses.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32219885

  63. A Swiss biophysicist has for the first time evaluated and graphically displayed the rate of positive tests in the US, Germany and Switzerland. The result shows that the positive rate in these countries is increasing only slightly and not exponentially.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/FScholkmann/status/1247873259422482434

  64. Many more (skeptical) links here (scroll down to April 12 updates:
    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

  65. edimbukvarevic | April 12, 2020 at 2:46 pm |

    Thanks for all the links!

  66. Corona virus coming to a city near you. We’re just getting started.

    Atlanta to convert World Congress Center into temporary hospital.

    https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-convert-atlanta-convention-center-temporary-hospital/1N8AkBiyKPNbwVLazbRsjP/

  67. They can send them up to NYC. Trump sent the Cuomo-De Blasio syndicate a huge field hospital and a 70,000 ton hospital ship with nearly 2,000 medical personnel with a couple thousand bed capacity and they have only been called on to treat a couple hundred patients.

    USNS Comfort, Javits Center at fraction of capacity during coronavirus crisis

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/usns-comfort-javits-center-not-near-capacity-amid-coronavirus/

  68. Robert Clark

    Covid-19 no updated report by 7:15 PM 4/12/2020

  69. stevenreincarnated

    Iceland came out with an antibody test study but that one seems too good to be true so I wonder if they were getting a lot of false positives or perhaps their resistance is diet or genetics related.

    • nobodysknowledge

      Please give a link.

    • stevenreincarnated

      Maybe not since I can’t find it again. Probably a story combining antibody tests and Iceland fatality rates combined with some careless reading. Still the fatality rate in Iceland at 0.004% seems way out of line with everyone else and probably why I went to antibody test so easily.

    • nobodysknowledge

      I don`t think they have started an antibody test study:
      The Directorate of Health said in a statement: “Keep in mind that the screening is now randomized, but voluntary so there is some bias in the data”, which added that “randomized screening program has started and a blood serum screening for antibodies is planned”.

  70. Don’t Believe the COVID-19 Models

    Here’s the tricky part: When an epidemiological model is believed and acted on, it can look like it was false. These models are not snapshots of the future. They always describe a range of possibilities—and those possibilities are highly sensitive to our actions.
    ——————————————–

    And they are a simple model with a comparatively simple problem. A GCM is forced into a problem its not going to solve. The GMST answer is dependent on what other people do. Not us.

    Here’s the answer. It depends on what China, India and the developing countries do and what our dim witted politicians do. It’s a model that says nothing we do matters. It’s science. Ask the consensus.

    You can’t take science away from reality, and then bring it back a say it will now change reality. Not this deal. You broke from reality. Can’t come back now. But you can trash your reputation.

  71. Robert Clark

    https://virusncov.com/
    Found a new chart, same information,
    DATE # NEW CASES INCREASE % # TESTS
    4/12/2020 15,527 2,833,112
    4/13/2020

    • Robert Clark

      DATE # NEW CASES INCREASE % # TESTS
      4/12/2020 15,527 2,833,112
      4/13/2020 16,253 726 +4.6 2,845,135

      • Robert Clark

        The chart this is based on is reset midnight to midnight UTC+7 which is presently central daylight savings time.

  72. Trump is making mistakes. His response is authoritarian. Not as bad as some though. Google Dave Rubin. I linked to the video somewhere. His response is as bad as our nation’s response to climate change. Dollar wise is might be the same as taking 25 years of that versus 2 months of this. Some states are trying out do him though. Google Lomborg. They are making this bleep up. The economic parts. The shoveling money parts.

    • jungletrunks

      Ragnaar, I wish I could construct what the proper Federal response should look like (or should have). The crises has many moving parts with a fog of war vignette surrounding all of it; there’s massive risks at every turn.

      I’d appreciate it if you could elaborate more about what you think the COVID-19 Federal response should have looked like? I say this more out of curiosity than judgement. I ‘d guess your approach to this is from a libertarian perspective, maybe not; but self quarantine until the disease subsides, perhaps provide limited Federal funding for disease specific issues only; let private industry and individuals sort it out on their own when the dust settles approach? Let the economy do what it will? That would be the libertarian pure play.

      I do have great concern about shoveling money. The only political philosophies that have economic concerns are closely allied conservative, or libertarian. What would the formula for resolution of this crises have looked like from your perspective, being sensitive to fog of war sensibilities; after all, anyone who believes the “right” person could resolve this without mistakes isn’t being realistic.

      Describing the “shoveling money” actions as authoritarian isn’t accurate, what occurred happened through the signing of representative congressional legislation. I’m not say I agree with everything, certainly not padding the bill with expensive pork. The act of compromise made it even larger than it need be. Regardless, what should be the solution from your perspective?

      • jungletrunks:
        I should not have used the words I used. I hope we don’t up with a more authoritarian Federal government because of the virus.

        I haven’t been able to bring into focus what I am trying to say:
        https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/judge-andrew-napolitano-liberty-coronavirus

        I’ve never seen anything like this. We all retract to safety. With a few rebels out there.

      • jungletrunks

        I appreciate the article by Napolitano. I agree about how segments of the Federal government have usurped power not granted to them. Especially the Supreme Court, but also the numerous unelected Departmental powers that create regulations willy nilly.

        This is what happens when the party that champions big government (the Democratic Party) dominates government for nearly 100 years.

        The Left controlled ALL congress (senate and house) for 56 out of 87 years since 1933 (approx, I haven’t added totals for awhile, but it’s close). This may not sound significant relative to diminishing the reach of government; but consider that the GOP only controlled ALL congress 16 of those same years approx. The remaining years were split congresses; but complete control of governance that included the executive branch is rare indeed for the GOP. The crux of this exercise is this; even in those rare times where the GOP controlled all government, it was with very narrow margins in either the senate, or house; meaning there’s never been enough power to make significant headways to limit the scope and reach of government. You get bills like this recent pandemic bill where compromise creates more expansion in government. The consequence is that over the last 100 years liberty and freedom have been trampled.

        While we need regulations, laws, etc., to supplement the founding documents; we don’t need, i.e., the Supreme Court supplementing legislation by writing law, they’re there to interpret law. When law can’t be properly interpreted it should be pushed to congress to legislate laws for, that’s how government remains in the hands of representatives to the people, and not controlled by extreme elements, like oligarchs. When 7 of the top 10 richest Americans are Leftists, and the 2 largest Investment banks in the world are controlled by Leftists, you can see how the political divide has lurched Left in just a couple decades, with extreme ideological divides, and the genesis of a deep state.

    • Look at NY for a less authoritarian approach. Early on they let it get out of hand. CA got on top of it and we are not dying like flies over here.

      • The difference in density. People per square mile.

      • Plus the make up of the people in any specific density. High rise luxury flats density? High rise slums density? Old people with numerous health conditions density? Young hipsters with plenty of money who go to the gym every day density?

        tonyb

  73. Ireneusz Palmowski

    ABSTRACT
    The beginning of 2020 brought us information about the novel coronavirus emerging in China. Rapid research resulted in the characterization of the pathogen, which appeared to be a member of the SARS-like cluster, commonly seen in bats. Despite the global and local efforts, the virus escaped the healthcare measures and rapidly spread in China and later globally, officially causing a pandemic and global crisis in March 2020. At present, different scenarios are being written to contain the virus, but the development of novel anticoronavirals for all highly pathogenic coronaviruses remains the major challenge. Here, we describe the antiviral activity of previously developed by us HTCC compound (N-(2-hydroxypropyl)-3-trimethylammonium chitosan chloride), which may be used as potential inhibitor of currently circulating highly pathogenic coronaviruses – SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV.
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.29.014183v1?fbclid=IwAR12q0EkY2tyBv1WY5TWn5Trh92WJhCEvriR1e3ku1Qn4VeGLN08aXF-6VE

  74. Corona World Order

    • Dr. Jones is, of course, the singular best voice of this topic and many others, although most will block themselves from hearing him.
      A more secular but scathing critique of the CV faux is Richie Allen:

    • After 54 seconds, I blocked myself from hearing this. I regret that I can’t unhear what I heard.

      • Don

        Out of historic interest here are the New York stats back to 1800 showing the various epidemics that swept the city with an astonishing death rate a century or so ago.

        Click to access 6551as_2010_final_population_&_mortality.pdf

        Deaths from these epidemics are sharply down over the last 50 years, presumably because of better sanitation, improved general health and other factors. However NYC seems very prone to these epidemics and I believe the city represents some 50% of all US deaths.

        London also represents a huge proportion of UK figures, both cities are crowded, have areas of poor housing and a mass transit system that gets truly crowded so the conditions for these pandemics must be ideal, unfortunately. I don’t know if New Yorkers go in for masks or how well they social distance but the number of parks to get away from crowds is pretty limited

        tonyb

      • tony,
        Queens borough of NYC is 108 square miles and has pop of 2.2m—deaths from COVID 19= 2,000

        San Francisco 47 square miles with pop of 900,000, a fair share of homeless and poor—deaths from COVID 19= 14

        The virus got an early start here. CA recorded 10 of the first 20 confirmed cases in the U.S. Governor “Moonbeam Jr.” Newsom took it seriously and took appropriate action.

        NY had plenty of warning and time to prepare and the authorities encouraged their people to go out and have fun, until it was too late to contain the epidemic. Also Queens has a high population of anarchist turnstile jumpers, with a particularly nasty disrespect for laws and the police, also encouraged by the NYC authorities under the direction of the idiot left loon Mayor De Blasio. Haven’t been to London in many years, but I will guess there are similar issues in the parts of London hardest hit by the virus.

        Good to see that Boris has survived.

      • Well, I just pent two hours (not really) on reply that went to mod. I am sure Judith will release when she sees it’s harmless, for a change. I’ll try to just get the punch line to appear:

        Queens borough of NYC is 108 square miles and has pop of 2.2m—deaths from COVID 19= 2,000

        San Francisco 47 square miles with pop of 900,000, a fair share of homeless and poor—deaths from COVID 19= 14

      • Don Monfort: Queens borough of NYC is 108 square miles and has pop of 2.2m—deaths from COVID 19= 2,000

        San Francisco 47 square miles with pop of 900,000, a fair share of homeless and poor—deaths from COVID 19= 14

        The virus got an early start here. CA recorded 10 of the first 20 confirmed cases in the U.S. Governor “Moonbeam Jr.” Newsom took it seriously and took appropriate action.

        Intriguing contrast.

      • This is how conscientious they are about complying with the Cuomo-De Blasio stay at home order, in NYC. These are well-paid essential city employees just getting off shift and rushing home to get off the streets:

  75. A batty excursion.

    Matt Ridley has provided an important article on the bat origins of SARS-covid19. Remarkably it was found in its present, fully infective form in a Chinese bat cave in 2013. Seven years ago.

    http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/bats-behind-the-pandemic/

    So bats find themselves uncomfortably in the spotlight as originators of covid19. Revenge for all those bat-chopping wind turbines? Let’s hope that humans don’t wreak revenge on our flying mammal cousains as Chairman Mao did in his cull of sparrows to divert the blame for bad harvests.

    So why the bat-virus connection?

    It’s a difficult feat for mammals to fly. We mammals have “tidal” lungs where oxygen rich air goes in and oxygen depleted air goes out by the same bronchial route, getting mixed up in the process. By the time inspired air reaches the alveoli where gas exchange occurs, its oxygen concentration is ten times less than that of atmospheric air. A bad design feature.

    How else could a lung be designed? – you might ask. Well, take a look at birds. (And other dinosaurs.) In the avian (bird) lung the air transport is unidirectional, not tidal, with the crucially important consequence that air arrives at the alveoli with the full undiminished atmospheric concentration of oxygen (20% or so).

    OK so how is this achieved? Do they only breathe in all their lives, with their lungs getting bigger and bigger till they die? No. That would be poor design. Instead the bodies of birds and other dinosaurs are permeated with a system of air sacs. They even fill some inner bone cavities, conferring the additional advantage of lightness. In-breathed air goes not to the lungs directly but instead it goes first to all the distributed air sacs. From those air sacs the air (still fully oxygenated) goes into the lungs, and via the lungs out of the body. A round trip in which the flow of air is unidirectional and oxygen reaches the alveoli with undiminished atmospheric concentration of oxygen.

    Therefore the efficiency of the avian lung is ten times higher than that of the tidal mammalian lung (and also the hepatic pump tidal lung of crocodiles). Both Saurischian and Ornithischian dinosaurs also had this avian type lung.

    There are enormous implications of this massively more efficient avian lung. The bird lung can be much smaller and still achieve the needed gas exchange for prolonged energetic flying. The lung does not need to expand and contract nearly as much. You don’t see a bird’s body expanding and contracting with breathing. In fact, it can’t – a bird’s rib cage can and does extend from the thorax all the way to the pelvic region. No need for a six-pack on a seagull. No need for a soft unprotected abdominal region to allow panting. There is only a small posterior membrane at the birds rear end where breathing related expansion and contraction takes place, but it’s small and hard to notice.

    That’s why a bird can take to the air in Scotland and land in Africa. Or remain aerobatically airborne for days on end like swallows or swifts. Mammals are incapable of anything remotely approaching this metabolic feat.

    What has any of this to do with coronavirus? There is the bat connection. Bats are mammals that do successfully fly, although not as far or fast as birds. The majority of a bat’s body is filled by a big pair of tidal lungs that compensate for their inefficiency by just working very hard. Now due to the extreme metabolic-energetic demands of flying with the wrong kind of lung, bats’ general metabolic rate is very high. This high metabolic rate of all a bat’s tissues has an important implication regarding viruses. The faster metabolising bat cells and tissues are able to tolerate a higher viral load than their more sluggish land-bound fellow mammals. This is why bats carry round so many viruses. Viruses like bats as hosts because more of them can cosy up together in the animal and they fly all over the place giving opportunities for travel and socialising. And also if jumping to other species if it’s really their lucky day.

    So it’s the high metabolic rate of bats necessitated by their flying that accounts for their high viral load and their role in communicating viruses. Add to that their evolutionary proximity. Yes – rodents and bats are closer evolutionary and genetic cousains to us humans and primates than most other mammals such as the large Laurasiothere group containing cats and dogs, horses, deer, pigs etc.

    The Chixilub meteor has a lot to answer for.

  76. Alan Cannell

    The US, Spain and Italy never had mandatory BCG vaccinations. In the UK you got the jab as a kid and most folk up to 70 (baby boomers) have the “mark”. Same in Brazil after the 60s and up to the present.
    The spread here (Brazil) is far slower (about half) that elsewhere wit the exception of the Amazon where folk with a lot of Native American are – as always – more at risk. One S state is even off the lockdown as the beds are not being filled and the health system (even public) is coping.
    The over 70s who didn’t get jabbed are far more vulnerable in places like the UK and over 60s in Brazil.
    Nobody knows why the BCG jab seems to offer some level of protection.

    So check to see if you guys have the jab mark (circle)!

    Keep safe

    Alan

  77. The DNC faux news media accuse POTUS Trump of not taking the Red China COVID 19 seriously, early on:

    https://i2.wp.com/www.citizenfreepress.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/montage.jpg?ssl=1

    • Don

      I think we all need to take china seriously and not just on health. to save a few cents corporations have been sending industry overseas to China and exported in the process many good jobs and much technology. In turn the public have bought lots of stuff at a good price but without considering the overall cost. In addition we have given China a free ride in the co2 stakes. What on earth was that free Obama pass to 2030 all about?

      We need to be much more aware that Chinese companies are an extension of the state and intend to dominate the world and impose their philosophy and values on us all. They own or lease some 75 ports in 30 countries and the belt and road initiative is tying many countries into china with soft loans.

      Time for the west to wake up

      tonyb

    • Trump’s video during this last press conference was priceless. Predictably, the White House Press Corps was apoplectic. Being used as a prop for his campaign doesn’t sit well with them. The wounds are self inflicted.
      Why aren’t they up in Albany asking Cuomo if he has blood on his hands since half the country’s deaths are in the Empire State? Why is that even a question.

      • Nope. Half the deaths are not in the Empire State. Check the stats.

      • ” Being used as a prop for his campaign doesn’t sit well with them. The wounds are self inflicted”.

        Actually these press conferences will yield a mass of quotes for Biden.

        “It will be a miracle.”

        “I don’t accept any responsibility.”

        “The authority is total.”

        Complete authority. No responsibility.

        Donald – D for “Disaster”

      • James

        As an observer from across the pond and who doesn’t personally like Trump, but recognises that he is not always wrong and his enemies will say and do anything to bring him down, can I ask in what universe do you believe Biden to be better?

        It is a shameful sate of affairs that the Democrats could not come up with a much better candidate than Biden, as at times Trump does present them with an open goal. They always miss, then Trump will say or do something that makes you think ‘is there really a BETTER alternative to him?’

        From the view over here and bearing in mind China and Iran and Korea and Russia need to be dealt with in whatever will be the most appropriate manner, the answer is NOT BIden.

        tony

      • Curious George

        James – stats? Do you mean the worldometer? Data compiled and analyzed by Worldometer and provided by:

        National Health Commission (NHC) of the People’s Republic of China
        Health Commission of Hubei Province, China

      • Is ok to say about half? Is that better? The NYC metro area is over half. So we split the difference. Then wait a couple of days to see what it is.
        Picky, picky.

      • Here is a geography lesson. New York is a state. It is one of 50 states. Cuomo is the Governor of the State of New York. New York City is a City in New York. The New York City Metro Area is composed of 25 counties in the States of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut.
        I’m talking about the area comprising counties from 3 states.

        Are you from the US? I asked you that before and you didn’t reply. If you are not an American, I can excuse your not knowing this. If you are, shame on you.

      • James Cross: Actually these press conferences will yield a mass of quotes for Biden.

        “It will be a miracle.”

        “I don’t accept any responsibility.”

        “The authority is total.”

        Complete authority. No responsibility.

        Donald – D for “Disaster”

        Come election season, we shall have dueling quotes, as always.

      • ceresco,

        You keep changing the geography. You first talked about the Empire State. Now you are talking about the NYC metro area which includes NYC, its suburbs, the largest cities in New Jersey, and most of the largest cities in Connecticut.

        It is largest metro area in the world and it got hit first with the virus because Trump didn’t shut down European travel and the area is main entry point from Europe. So yes it has a lot of deaths now. The question will be what will be the percentage when this is over with. What are you trying to prove?

      • Trying to demonstrate the obvious. The obsequious groveling by the press toward Son of Mario vs the hysterical screeching of the lefties disguised as journalists during the White House press conferences. The contrast is palpable.

      • JC

        Just so you are kept current.

      • I saw that. I’ve been saying all along there is a powerful under count, a really tremendous under count. But the same applies everywhere else too. I expect the real death toll to be over 100,000 by the time this wave calms down. And we still may not be peaking yet.

        So there still isn’t any takeaway from these numbers. It just means that NY is doing better at tracking the disease.

      • So just after I wrote that comment I go to my local AJC.

        The state says the coronavirus has killed no residents of Arbor Terrace at Cascade, an assisted living center in Atlanta. In fact, the Fulton County Board of Health said, deaths at the facility rose Tuesday to 15.

        These discrepancies reflect the out-of-date, incomplete and sometimes inaccurate data that guides Georgia’s official response to the coronavirus outbreak, which has killed at least 524 people and sickened more than 14,000 others.

        https://www.ajc.com/news/faulty-data-obscures-virus-impact-georgia/LhCiI0bVKXOQW9VuEF9OrN/

  78. A message from the quarantined.

    IMG_1248.mov

  79. IPA brief on the economic impact on Australia of anti-virus measures – horrific:

    Dear IPA Members

    Anticipating the economic impact of COVID-19 and the health responses to it is a difficult task. Economic indicators, such as unemployment and GDP figures, lag behind the actual economy; a spike in joblessness can take months to show up in the official data, and by then may have been offset by the creation of jobs elsewhere.

    In the early stages of the pandemic when governments around the world were considering how to respond, this created an interesting dynamic where real-time data – such as the number of cases and deaths, and the daily increases of each – could be used to drive public policy. Politicians and public servants did not seem too concerned with the economic impact of policies, leading to an almost-immediate and false dichotomy between “lives” and “livelihoods”. Those who were concerned about the economic impacts of a shutdown did not have the luxury of real-time data to back up their arguments, and were told to “stop talking about the economy” by the ABC’s Chief Economics Correspondent Emma Alberici.

    This dynamic has since changed. Those solely concerned with the health impacts no longer have a monopoly on data, and there has been a shift in the public debate since Gideon Rozner released this video calling on the government to begin to safely reopen parts of the economy.

    On April 3, the day before Gideon’s video was released, Kurt Wallace and I estimated that for each day of the shutdown 71,700 Australians lost their jobs. We knew that this was a conservative estimate, and noted that we did not consider the fact that many people have kept their jobs but with reduced hours.

    Over the past week, the economic impact of COVID-19 and the shutdown have become clearer. Roy Morgan reports that an additional 1.4 million people have lost their jobs since mid-March, and a further 370,000 have had their incomes reduced. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that two-thirds of businesses have seen lower revenues, and seven per cent of businesses (or 166,300 firms) have completely ceased trading. The NAB business confidence survey dropped to -66 points for March, more than twice the depths seen in the midst of the GFC (-30 points) and more than triple those of the last recession (-20 points). Andrew Mohl, former chief executive of AMP and former director of the Commonwealth Bank, estimates that a six-month shutdown will cost the Australian economy $100 billion, roughly $550 million each day.

    There is no question that COVID-19 presents a serious health issue. It is impossible to quantify the value of a life and to conduct a cost-benefit analysis to decide how many deaths can be tolerated while keeping the economy and society open as if nothing has changed. Contrary to what critics of the IPA have argued, we are not suggesting that the government return to business as usual. We are simply highlighting the fact that economic indicators are not abstractions. They are an important insight into peoples’ lives, and it is worth debating the current measures and the impact they are having on individuals, families, and communities.

    The dignity of work is vital to a prosperous and flourishing life. A job provides much more than an income, it provides a source of meaning by allowing individuals to care for their families and contribute to their local community. There are clear and intrinsic links between work and wellbeing. A number of studies have confirmed the importance of maintaining employment – the unemployed are more likely to have poor physical and mental health, and their children are likely to be at a disadvantage in school. For the long-term unemployed, this creates a vicious cycle as the longer an individual remains out of work, the longer it takes them to find a job. As of January this year, about 25 per cent of unemployed people in Australia had been out of a job for more than a year. Of these people, around half had been unemployed for more than two years.

    To try and minimise the devastating impacts of the shutdown, the federal government has announced unprecedented levels of spending. The bulk of this spending is the $130 billion JobKeeper scheme, which is a wage subsidy that aims to keep workers connected to their employer by covering $1,500 in wages per worker each fortnight for the next six months. This is an appropriate policy to mitigate the damage to lives and society caused by shutting down large sections of the economy.

    However, public policy must address the debt burden this and other government responses will leave Australian taxpayers with. Going into the crisis, gross federal government debt was already $575 billion, costing $16 billion each year in interest alone. We have estimated that over the next two to three years, federal debt will balloon to $1 trillion and interest payments will nearly double to about $30 billion annually. If Australia loses its AAA credit rating or if interest rates rise, these interest costs will become even higher.

    All this new spending and debt will have to be paid for somehow. It took the current government seven years to restore the budget to a modest surplus and begin to pay off debt that has built up since the Howard years. The government must look to cut costs where possible to service this debt; taxpayers can no longer afford the annual $5.7 billion public sector wage premium, the virtue signalling of the $10 billion Clean Energy Finance Corporation, or the ABC’s $522 million property portfolio, as Daniel Wild highlighted in a recent article in The Australian.

    The recovery from this crisis will be long and sluggish, and made more difficult given the fact that the economy was structurally unsound prior to the shutdown. Investment is low, taxes are high, and red tape continues to hamstring individuals and businesses.

    New private sector business investment is just 10.9 per cent of GDP, a low not seen since the last recession and well below the average of 13.7 per cent during the economically-hostile Whitlam years. Australia has the equal second highest corporate tax rate in the OECD at 30 per cent, well above the average of 23 per cent. And the IPA has calculated that there has been an 80 per cent increase in regulation since 2005 at the federal level with some 356,198 individual regulations currently in force.

    It will take decades to recover from the COVID-19 crisis and pay off the extraordinary levels of debt incurred in an effort to “hibernate” the economy. The plan for recovery must include a reform agenda to make Australia a more resilient, competitive, and prosperous nation.

    One of the most important public policy initiatives in facilitating economic recovery will be for governments at the Commonwealth and state levels to cut red tape. As you will have read in last week’s edition of the IPA’s Hey… What did I miss? email, cutting red tape has always been a focus of the IPA’s research going back to 1943 when the IPA was founded. Over the years, though, the impetus for red tape reduction changed and is today focussed primary on jobs. This change in priority is captured in the re-framing of the IPA’s red tape reduction program to be Cut Red Tape for Australia’s Jobs.

    Absolutely everything that governments do over the coming months and years must be directed toward getting as many Australians into a job as possible.

    IPA research calculated that each year red tape costs $176 billion in forgone economic output, which is approximately 10 per cent of GDP. This makes red tape Australia’s biggest industry. This estimate is more than an empirical abstraction. It captures all of the businesses which are never started, the jobs never created, and the dreams which remain unfulfilled because of red tape.

    Cutting red tape, along with reducing corporate, personal income, and payroll taxes, and reducing the size of the public service will be necessary to secure a prosperous and more free nation for the next generation of Australians.

  80. Rutrow. Projected deaths headed back up.

    Now projecting at about 69K by August 4.

    • Curious George

      Prediction: I say this will happen.
      Projection: I say this could happen.

      The very word “projection” implies a lack of confidence.

    • James Cross: Rutrow. Projected deaths headed back up.

      Now projecting at about 69K by August 4.

      How so? What is “Rutrow”?

  81. Another hydroxychloroquine trial:

    https://calgaryherald.com/news/u-of-c-researchers-to-begin-hydroxychloroquine-trial-on-covid-19-patients/

    Participants will be randomized to receive either hydroxychloroquine or a placebo. Both are being supplied by Canadian manufacturer Apotex. Patients will have a two-in-three chance of receiving the active drug.

  82. Over the past 7 days in the US, the new case counts and % of total cases have been:

    28606, 7.2%; 29875, 6.9%; 33536, 7.8%; 33483, 7.1%; 30003, 6.0%;
    27421, 5.2%; 26641, 4.8%.

    Over the past 7 days in the US, the new death counts and % of total cases have been:

    1919 18%; 1895, 15%; 1900, 13%; 2037, 12%; 1830, 8.9%;
    1528, 7.5%; 1835, 6.9%.

    Data from worldometers, last updated yesterday midnight GMT.

    Everyone knows there are problems with theses counts: deaths at home undercounted, “died with” vs “died because of”, false positive and false negative rates of the diagnostic tests not accounted for, … . Assuming those problems not to be too severe in magnitude, we may soon be able to look back and say that “the end of the beginning” occurred around Easter (going by deaths) or a little earlier (going by cases.)

    • There is a lot of focus on the daily death rate and looking for the peak but what’s being ignored is the how fast the rate drops and whether it is a smooth drop to almost no new deaths or a bumpy ride as new hot spots break out, especially as social distancing becomes relaxed.

      • James Cross: what’s being ignored is the how fast the rate drops

        Nobody is ignoring it. It just hasn’t happened yet, and all eyes are on it to see what happens next.

    • I hope to see the percentages (positive test results per 100 tests) being reported and graphed ….. rather than just the increasing #cases (positive test results) each day, which is giving a vastly incorrect perspective.

      One hypothesis is that the percentages have been about constant (around 5%-15%) all this year, so there was never an increasing epidemic — and the apparent epidemic with increasing #cases per day was only an artifact of the increasing #tests per day. Perhaps the level 5%-15% is due to some background level in the population, or due to false positive tests, or perhaps some combination.

      From an earlier post:
      edimbukvarevic | April 1, 2020 at 11:59 am | Reply ​
      “Dr. Richard Capek and other researchers have already shown that the number of test-positive individuals in relation to the number of tests performed remains constant in all countries studied so far, which speaks against an exponential spread („epidemic“) of the virus and merely indicates an exponential increase in the number of tests.”​

      In checking this hypothesis and in calculating the percentage (#cases/#tests), it is important to match the date for the #cases with the same date for the #tests. This is hard to do because CDC has adjusted the data to report the test results (#cases) for a given set of tests (#tests) on different dates — so not matching the test date.

      https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html​

      For #Positive Cases — “Date is calculated as illness onset date if known. If not, an estimated illness onset date was calculated using specimen collection date.​
      Note: On March 24, CDC updated the data included in this figure to include estimated illness onset date.”​

      You can do a simple numerical experiment to see the effect of mis-matching the dates. (Need pencil and back-of-envelope here.) Let’s assume that the percentage is constant at 10% (so no increasing epidemic). Then, if the #tests is ramping up and doubling every 3 days, and the percentage (test result for positive cases) is constant 10%, you would see the #cases ramping up and doubling every 3 days. So, under this hypothesis, the graph of increasing #cases (as was shown to the public all during March) can be completely controlled simply by controlling the #tests per day and ramping that up.

      So, what is the effect of CDC’s adjusting the data regarding the reported date for #cases? Well, on your 2nd envelope, if you mis-match the dates by lagging the #cases date by, say 6 days, then re-calculate the percentage it is then larger than the 10%. (And conversely, in the situation that the #tests is being ramped down. ) You could also make the percentage itself appear to gradually increase over the month by changing the average lag time over the month (as could have occurred as more states adopted the CDC method of not reporting #cases and #tests for matched dates). So these are some data issues to consider, whenever someone gets around to doing the correct analysis that should have been done before running the models using incorrect rates.

    • or maybe not; today’s numbers are:

      26945, 4.6% for cases

      2047, 11% for deaths

      data problems, rather case and death definitions, such as those raised by sciencereview18 will not be resolved for at least a few more months, I expect.

    • jungletrunks

      I appreciate the link, matthewrmarler, it’s cumulative fodder to my initial suspicion of the virus leaking from the BSL-4 lab in Wuhan.

      The following link comes from a poster upthread. I was a bit surprised there was no further reaction to it, but it’s a worthy read that adds a great deal of granularity to the premise of an accidental leak. The credentials of the scientist in the following essay makes it a worthy read, to be taken seriously for consideration IMO.

      Partial preamble: This report is the product of a collaboration between Dr. Karl Sirotkin, a retired professional scientist with dozens of peer-reviewed publications and 30 years of experience in genomic sequencing and analysis, who worked at the Theoretical Biology Division of the Los Alamos National Laboratory and later helped design several ubiquitous bioinformatic software tools…
      https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/

  83. Ioannides on Retractions and other misinformation:
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/eci.13222

    I apologize if this is a duplicate post. I had not seen it before today.

  84. hydroxychloroquine trial in S. Dakota:

    Governor Kristi Noem

    @govkristinoem
    We’ve received the initial doses we need.

    Thanks to the leadership, of @SanfordHealth with assistance from @AveraHealth & @_monumenthealth, we’re now the first state to do a full clinical trial to test whether hydroxychloroquine can treat and perhaps prevent #COVID19

    713
    9:25 AM – Apr 13, 2020

    It’s a tweet. I hope it is not copyrighted in a way to prevent reposting here.

    • nobodysknowledge

      Thank you for this important link. Tells us much how difficult the lockdown exit strategy is.

  85. Former V.P. and presumptive Democrat POTUS nominee , Joe Biden, confers with principal aide on his strategies for dealing with the COVID 19 crisis, Middle East conflict, relationship with Red China, Russia-Ukraine etc., should he become Leader of the Free World. Pause in campaigning due to national emergency coronavirus lock down is providing time for the former V.P. to hone his debating skills in preparation for the coming showdown with The Big Orange Fella. Here’s how it is going, so far:

  86. Another comment to moderation. This is getting tedious. Time to take a break. This is the thing. You know..the thing:

    • Don

      Many of mine go into moderation. Judith said its just the spam filter going mad and eventually they do appear.

      tonyb

      • Right, tony. I just like the instant gratification of seeing my brilliant contributions without delay. What annoys me is when the resident virus sympathizers write their obscene expressions of glee as the fatality toll goes up, I call them out, they whine to teacher, and teacher deletes my mildly rebuking comments, leaving their obscene expressions of glee. And there is a good chance this will go to moderation.

    • JCH

      So anecdotal data is acceptable when it supports your preconceived positions. You need something for TDS.

      • Personal attacks are against the bog rules.

      • Blog.

        And, being normal is not a syndrome. It is normal to dislike and oppose bad people. It is abnormal to support them.

        You have a herd of 100 animals who have a lethal viral disease. 95 of them got very sick, but have recovered. 4 are dead. One is still very sick. A man drives up and runs over screaming that he has a cure. You inject 10cc of his into the hog. An hour later the hog starts getting well, and by morning is clearly going to live.

        What do you know?

        99.99% the hog was going get well anyway. Big hint: 95% already had.

        Miracle cures for lethal viral infections are extraordinarily rare. Snake Oil for them runs amok.

        With those what we no is there is absolutely no evidence at all it does something. With the amazingly wide array of disease pathways, it will take some very well conceived and managed trials to tease out any effect at all.

        If a trial discovers a clear beneficial report, they will write an interim report and all of the sickest people will get the drug. If a trial discovers a clear detrimental effect, they will cancel the trial and write a final report. If the trial is seeing no clinical effect, they write a report. Each day is pointing to the likeliest result.

    • Matthew R Marler

      JCH | April 15, 2020 at 11:11 am

      Probably a typo: first word ought to be “hydroxychloroquine” instead of “coronavirus”.

      there are a lot of peprints here:
      https://www.medrxiv.org/search/hydroxychloroquine

      Thanks for the headsup.

    • JCH will report you to teacher, Rob.
      French doc has used HDQ to treat over 2000 patients and says it works. Macron flew down to Marseilles a few days ago to meet the doc and they talked for several hours.
      Wonder why the lefties are so upset about HDQ, but have not uttered a peep about all the other treatments being tried on novel coronavirus COVID 19, none of which have been proven safe and effective in double blind placebo controlled clinical trials. TDS much?

      • Doctor reports study of 1061 confirmed COVID 19 patients starting treatment early with hydroxychloroquine. No evidence of “living virus” in cell cultures, after 10 days treatment in all patients. There were 5 deaths and six still in ICU of the 1061.

        Doctor has treated total 2500 patients with 10 deaths.

        Worldwide COVID 19 cases 2,072,269/133,802 deaths = .06456
        Dr. Didier Raoult treated with HDQ cases 2500/10 deaths =.004

      • Link not working, again. Title on youtube:

        EXCLUSIVE: Dr. Oz Discusses The Hydroxychloroquine Study Outcome With Dr.Didier Raoult

        Dr. Raoult from wiki bio:
        Since 2008, Raoult has been the director of the Unité de Recherche sur les Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales Emergentes (URMITE; in English, Research Unit in Infectious and Tropical Emergent Diseases), collaborating with CNRS (National Center for the Scientific Research), IRD (Research for the Development Institute), INSERM (National Institute of Health and Medical Research) and the Aix Marseille University, in Marseille. His laboratory employs more than 200 people, including 86 researchers who publish between 250 and 350 papers per year and have produced more than 50 patents.[4] Raoult has also been involved in the creation of eight startups.

      • Reversed deaths/cases in the computation. And you thought I was perfect.

  87. Robert Clark

    DATE NEW CASES INCREASE % # TESTS
    4/14/2020 31,184
    4/15/2020 21,018 -10,166 -32.6 139,343
    Finally got the right information. We will see how it looks after 7 days.

  88. Robert Clark

    .
    I finally figured out how they make the chart. The 24-hour day goes from 7:00 AM to 7:AM CDT. The final update is after 9:00 AM.
    I BELIEVE THIS SHOWS HOW WELL WE, THE PEOPLE, ARE DOING. Understand the testing is basically being done on essential workers. That is medical workers. Essential workers such as the rancher that delivers the animal to the slaughter house all the way to the cashier. These are those mostly exposed to the virus.
    https://virusncov.com/
    Information I am using.

  89. Some reading for coronavirus lockdown

  90. NYC deaths per square mile 38.9
    US 48 deaths per square mile 0.007

  91. Early results with remdesivir:https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

    Here’s hoping. Same caveats as always, since there was no control group.

  92. Another promising drug treatment:
    https://www.faithwire.com/2020/04/16/israeli-covid-19-treatment-with-100-survival-rate-tested-on-first-us-patient/?utm_source=FWNL

    Here’s one where you definitely can not say “They would almost all have survived anyway”; so it seems “obvious” that no control group or random assignment would be necessary. Notice the unusual mechanism of action against the syndrome unique to “late stage” COVID-19.

  93. Coronaviruses hijack the complement system

    Complement activation occurs in patients infected with MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2, which might be involved in the pathogenesis of acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). In this preprint, Gao et al. identify the host complement activator MASP2 as a target of the N protein of all three viruses. In mice, lung injury induced by SARS-CoV-1 or MERS-CoV N protein was attenuated when its MASP2-binding motif was altered, when MASP2 was genetically knocked out or when the MASP2–N protein interaction was pharmacologically blocked. Preliminary data from patients treated with a blocking antibody to complement component C5a suggest a potential benefit of targeting complement in patients with COVID-19 with severe lung injury.

  94. Random data with NYC COVID19 deaths of 11,477 as back drop.

    Number of counties in selected states with 0 deaths.
    Texas 170
    Virginia 123
    Kansas 93
    Missouri 87
    Nebraska 84
    Iowa 83

    Number of counties in selected states with single digits deaths
    GA 148
    MN 86 of 87 counties
    MS 84
    IL 82
    OH 75
    MI 73
    IN 70
    FL 57
    PA 53

    • Are you accounting for people from rural counties that were transferred to large city hospitals?

    • At least in Georgia, large number of counties with no hospitals, many with rural hospitals with no intensive care units, some counties with no doctors. People from these places who die with COVID are not likely reported or don’t die in the location they are from.

      Any stats comparing large meat processing plants with NYC?

  95. Deaths in counties with near 1 million population or over

    San Francisco County 17
    Alleghany County (Pittsburgh). 24
    Orange County (3.2M). 19
    Franklin County (Columbus). 19
    Wake County (Raleigh) 0 as of yesterday….1 as of today

  96. Robert Clark

    https://virusncov.com/ This is the sight where I get the data. The day’s readings held 11:40 to 12:00.
    The testing is still the individuals that are working keeping the necessities required during this period.
    The American people basically listened to the VP and doctors and self-isolated beginning March 1st.
    By the 15th the ones that did it properly virus free. The rest that came to realize are clean by now.
    The chart over the next few weeks should say we the people. The President helped a little.
    Keep the borders shut as required by results111.

    DATE NEW CASES INCREASE % # TESTS
    4/14/2020 31,184
    4/15/2020 21,018 -10,166 -32.6 139,343
    4/16/2020 34,858 13,840 65.8 154,017
    4/17/2020 31,790 -2768 -7.9 302,407

  97. Pre-print not yet reviewed but straightforward testing and data analysis by Stanford researchers of Santa Clara County CA population’s (2million) prevalence of antibodies to CV 19. Santa Clara had 2 of the first twenty cases in U.S.

    Currently 1,833 cases have been confirmed and 69 deaths. Patients who have died have the usual profile, elderly with co-morbidities.

    “These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.”

    69/48,000=0.0014375
    69/81,000=0.00085185

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

    COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

    Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.

  98. I’ve found something sort of new in Steve McIntyre’s Twitter feed. He’s been tweeting a lot about how copper can be used in masks and on surfaces to kill the virus. Example:

  99. Matthew R Marler

    SARS CoV-2 lineage traced back farther than before:
    https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgxwHMsPSxFLQRZSSJDZxrjmZMnPB

    I am not seeing the original at PNAS yet.

  100. Get out and exercise hard:
    https://www.studyfinds.org/regular-exercise-can-protect-against-deadly-coronavirus-complications-study-says/

    In my case, I am hauling compost from a big pile in the driveway (started as 5 cubic yards) to the burgeoning spring flowers and bushes.

  101. Interesting and encouraging report of results from Remdesivir trial. Severely ill patients reportedly improving rapidly and getting out of hospital quickly, 113 patients, 2 deaths. No control group. Report on 400 patient trial due soon. I think I will buy more Gilead:

    If the link doesn’t work, title on youtube MedCram channel:

    Coronavirus Pandemic Update 57: Remdesivir Treatment Update and Can UV-C Disinfect Public Spaces?

  102. Thanks, Matt
    The left loon media hates hydroxycholorquine. There is always a negative slant:

    “In one small French study, some COVID-19 patients showed improvements but there was no way to know if the drug was the reason. Results published in April from another study in France and one in China found no benefit in patients treated with the drug. Dozens more clinical studies are underway around the world.

    FURTHER READING:
    Special Report: Doctors embrace drug touted by Trump for COVID-19, without hard evidence it works”

    Crazy doctors embrace drug “touted” by Trump. They forgot to say that Trump also “touted” Remdesivir. They also don’t mention the positive reports from widespread usage in many countries including a recent report from Dr. Rauolt who has treated 2500 patients. After recently meeting with Dr. Rauolt for several hours French Pres. Macron was enthusiastic and pushed for clinical trials.

    No drugs have been tested and approved for treatment of COVID 19. There is even controversy over the proper use of ventilators in treating CV patients. That has not been tested. More often than not being put on a ventilator means a fatality.

    It remains to be seen if HDQ will pass rigorous double blind placebo controlled testing, but the hysterical vendetta from the left against the drug and the docs who use it because they believe from experience that it works, would be funny if it wasn’t so serious.

    • Don,

      I don’t think the “Left loon media” hates hydroxycholorquine.

      I think it is just a matter of being guided by science. Quite a number of scientists were skeptical that hydroxycholorquine would be of value. But, if it tests out of value, then so be it. I’ll embrace it and praise Trump for guessing about one thing and getting it right.

      I think the evidence for Remdesivir, however, is looking better and there is better reason to think an anti-viral would be of use. But let’s wait on the science.

      I’m scheduled for my vaccine shot on Monday.

      • Left loon media are not scientists. They are politicized hacks, who report that HDQ was “touted” by Trump, has not been tested, and it’s poison. Then there is the fact that a lot of scientists are politicized hacks, with the TDS.

        What evidence is there for Remdesivir?* Do you like it because it is called an anti-viral drug? Any drug that kills virus is an anti-viral drug. Many frontline docs are using HDQ as standard of care based on their experience treating actual patients. They could be wrong about its effectiveness. I hope they are right. There are a lot of people hoping it’s no good, because Trump “touted’ it.

        I will likely make a nice pile of money if Remdesivir is proven to be significantly effective in treating CV. HDQ is cheap as dirt. If it succeeds, it could be useful as a prophylaxis as well as a treatment.

        *this is good
        https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/antiviral-remdesivir-prevents-disease-progression-monkeys-covid-19

  103. ‘We need a CoVid vaccine’….this is the sort of typical propaganda that rails out decade after decade, all that changes is the name of the vaccine.

    Much as Prof Curry suggests that the general public cannot be rationally skeptical about climate change because of a lack of knowledge, you can say the same about skepticism to the need for vaccines.

    The truth about coronaviruses is that there are literally hundreds of them doing the rounds and every so often one of them is going to develop a transient virulence. The fact is that innate immunity to coronaviruses will develop when children are exposed to the viruses naturally, whereas people who are ill anyway are more likely to die with a bit of coronavirus in their system.

    If we actually need a vaccine, it should only be for older folk and even then, the cost-benefits are going to be fairly dubious. If I were doing a cost-benefit analysis, I would give a ringing NO on the financial returns.

    Of course, politics is about the jackboot of billionaires on the throats of hapless mouthpieces, so decisions may be on the basis of the raging psychopath Bill Gates threatening more economic armageddon unless he is allowed to make $100bn being a global pervert making the whole world have tattooes for his peepshow perversions to take hold.

    But if you actually want value for money, you should certainly ask the hugely skeptical question: ‘Coronavirus vaccines: why bother?’

    • rtj1211: If we actually need a vaccine, it should only be for older folk and even then, the cost-benefits are going to be fairly dubious. If I were doing a cost-benefit analysis, I would give a ringing NO on the financial returns.

      Consider the large number of men over the age of 50 who are employed, overweight (or diabetic), and suffering from hypertension or atrial fibrillation. And consider elderly moving into assisted living quarters or retirement homes. And consider the large number of doctors, nurses, medical technicians and custodial staff who take care of infected people of all ages and other characteristics in hospitals and in their homes (e.g. visiting nurses). For those groups of people, a vaccine against SARS CoV-2 looks now to be as valuable as vaccines against pneumonia, polio, measles and shingles.

    • > “We kind of have the red pill people and the blue pill people,” said Dr. Michael J. Ackerman, a Mayo Clinic cardiologist who was among the first to warn that the malaria drugs can dangerously disturb heart rhythms.

      Really unfortunate.

  104. Belgium has a Deaths per Million of population rate of 490. Other countries have rates significantly lower. Months into this pandemic yet I’m not sure the other shoe is going to drop everywhere. The death rate in Belgium is higher than these counties by the factor shown.
    India 1200
    Bangladesh 816
    Pakistan 700
    South Africa 544
    Russia 245
    Indonesia 245
    Brazil 45
    Some of these countries have very high density of population
    On the other side is that the deaths in Ecuador might be an order of magnitude greater than official statistics.
    There are many issues that need to be sorted out in the coming months, beginning with do we really know what we think we know.

    • ckid
      In Belgium all deaths in care homes are chalked up to coronavirus. So their numbers are pessimistic.

      • Yes, I saw that too. Such difficulty in not knowing what to accept as reality. We don’t know if is really is is.
        Reminds me of the time just before I retired when we were rolling out new accounting systems and I had no confidence that what I was looking at was really what it said it was. Flying blind doesn’t help with the decision making process.

      • Ceresco

        phil is right. The trouble is that the numbers actually with cv are likely to be small in most care homes as the residents are terrified of going into hospital for ailments they would normally be whisked in for.

        This is on the sensible basis they are more likely to catch it in hospital than out of it. We have several care homes near us which I walk by and chat to the care workers often having a cigarette outside. Round here none have seen a CV case in their care homes.

        tonyb

      • tonyb

        I don’t know how it is in the UK but there is a huge problem in nursing homes in the US. And that makes perfect sense since you have a large number of people in close contact and little ability to isolate the ill or detect the asymptomatic. We have care workers who come and go and work at multiple facilities. It is prime breeding ground for any kind of contagious disease.

        https://abcnews.go.com/Health/inside-nursing-homes-coronavirus-brings-isolation-7300-deaths/story?id=70225836

      • This is a picture of a recent funeral in Bangladesh with up to 100,000 in attendance. I noted their low number of deaths above. I’m curious if the number goes up appreciably in the coming days. If they are ignoring social distancing across the country like they are here, it wouldn’t surprise me if it does.

      • james

        I don’t want to give the impression there is no problem. fortunately it is restricted to a relatively small number of homes, although once in to a home CV can wreak havoc as, by definition, the patients are very vulnerable.

        I understand that as many patients have dementia it is difficult to explain to them what needs to be done as regards social distancing etc assuming there is the space in the first place.

        I don’t like these homes very much, but until society takes greater responsibility for its relatives, or until higher ratios of patients to care home workers are set up by law, then unfortunately care homes will be very vulnerable to all types of epidemics-normally flu

        tonyb

  105. Robert Clark

    DATE NEW CASES INCREASE % # TESTS
    4/14/2020 31,184
    4/15/2020 21,018 -10,166 -32.6 139,343
    4/16/2020 34,858 13,840 65.8 154,017
    4/17/2020 31,790 -3,068 -55 148,690
    4/18/2020 29,564 -2,226 -7 168,397
    4/19/2020 27,354 -2,210 -7.4 139,511
    I do not know what I did wrong on the 15th but now I have it right. By the end 14 days we should show how incredable the AMERICAN PEOPLE are.

  106. Robert Clark: I do not know what I did wrong on the 15th

    Some time last week the state of New York reclassified 2900 deaths as due to COVID-19, and the US total increased dramatically as a result.

    • Robert Clark

      It is the number of positive tests that was wrong. It had to be wrong in the chart I ltook it from.

      • Robert Clark

        That information my son sent me shows that around 10,000 positive tests in 16 belonged in 15. The total count drop over the laast 5 days (31,184 to 27,354) is -12.5 percent. The virus is rapidly disapearing rapidly. We will see where we are tomorrow.

  107. As mentioned in previous comment on March 31, the NY transit authorities in response to reduced ridership because of the epidemic going around, reduced the number of trains, resulting in packing in folks like sardines:

    https://judithcurry.com/2020/03/30/cov-discussion-thread-ii/#comment-912666

    MIT working paper says:

    The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City

    Click to access HarrisJE_WP2_COVID19_NYC_13-Apr-2020.pdf

    • https://nypost.com/2020/03/29/video-shows-packed-nyc-subway-cars-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/

      “The footage shows packed subway trains and platforms, in some cases shoulder to shoulder with each other. At one point, a man is heard in the background selling drugs inside the crowded car.

      The MTA has been hard hit by the COVID-19 bug, with at least two workers dying from the virus and at least 156 others testing positive — while another 1,181 have self-quarantined, officials said.

      “If you’re short-staffed, then you should close the MTA down and people stay at home,” the straphanger said. “This is ridiculous.

      “Gov. Cuomo, how serious are you?” she said. “The MTA has to be addressed.” “

  108. https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117

    This new research from Cambridge University UK sheds light on the virus’ origin and how it spread. The team of scientists mapped the network of strains of the virus that differ by small mutations (the small notches in the lines). The length of the lines shows how many mutations happened from one form to the other. This powerful method lays bare the history of covid19.

    – 3 big clusters are the main types: A is Yunnan in south China, B is Wuhan and C is Europe. Colour of each circle represents the region. Notice the bat – the black dot in the bottom right corner.

    – The virus jumped from bat to human in Yunnan (not Wuhan) – cluster A – as early as September 2019. From there it went to Wuhan, but some spread to America and Europe occurred direct from Yunnan.

    – B, Wuhan is the biggest cluster. All transmission of B type out of Asia was accompanied by mutation.

    – C is the Europe mutated strain, absent from China.

    Generally it’s clear that a lot of links keep forming, as people travel. But the genetic map shows the origin and how emergence of new types accompanied spread around the world.

    https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117

  109. Tales of 2 cities……and countries

    Lombardy Region Italy 10M 11,851 Deaths. 1,185 per Million
    NYC. 8.7M. 10,000 Deaths. 1,115 per Million

    Harris County Texas. 4.6M. 46 Deaths. 10 per Million
    Orange County California. 3.2M. 32 Deaths. 10 per Million

    Texas has 254 Counties. 218 Counties have 0 or 1 Death

    • Cerescokid

      So what is the population density, housing type, generational living factor, tactility, demographics and morbitities of the communities in the places you cite? I think you are comparing apples and orange counties.

      The overwhelming majority to die in Lombardy are often extremely elderly and often with numerous life threatening illnesses. This large cohort did not exist even 20 years ago.

      To that you must add in the report by the Italian health authorities that only some 12% of those listed as dying with CV actually died OF it. Italy-like the UK -follows the WHO guidelines that states that a death with CV should be counted as a death OF it..

      tonyb

      • Hi Tony

        I meant to post here.

        I just looked at the Wayne County (Detroit) demographics and they are not all that different from Harris and Orange counties as to race and income. A little less on household income (not as much as I would have thought) but racial makeup fairly close.

        Wayne County Deaths per Million ~1,000
        Harris County Deaths per Million. 10
        Orange County Deaths per Million. 10

      • tonyb: So what is the population density, housing type, generational living factor, tactility, demographics and morbitities of the communities in the places you cite? I think you are comparing apples and orange counties.

        I think the point of the comparisons/contrasts is to stimulate questions, not answer them.

        However, one obvious conclusion is that there is no good reason to have the same “lockdown” policies in such disparate places.

      • Caronavirus cases in NYC metro area compared with next 24 most infected U.S. metro areas:

        Seems like something is rotten in NYC. Look first to the head of the fish. He’s a big one.

  110. I agree. I don’t have any particular point of view other than there are so many variables at play.
    The reason I included Harris and Orange Counties is that Harris County has Houston in it, the most populated city in Texas. I’m going to research the demographics to compare them with harder hit cities, like Detroit.
    Orange County had the first COVID19 case in California and is next to LA County with a much higher rate of deaths. Why no spillover? There are so many states with virtually nil effect in vast expanses of its geography.

    I’m also intrigued that highly and densely populated countries like India and Bangladesh have such low deaths per Million compared to say NYC, which has a rate of deaths to population 3,000 times that of those 2 countries.
    I understand why the difference could be great, but by 3,000 times? I doubt either country can implement social distancing like others have.

    Three contiguous countries, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos have 0 deaths. Two of those countries share a border with China. If I had noticed that a couple of months ago, I would have thought nothing to it, believing it was only a matter of time before it hits them. Maybe it will eventually, but as of now there has been little effect. The low rates in some countries might just be poor reporting systems. Who knows.

    Looking across the globe, I’m struck by the disparity in the impact. I appreciate that multiple factors contribute to varying impacts, but in some cases the astronomical difference is difficult to explain.

    • Ceresco kid

      I suspect that it is primarily western lifestyle (too much meat, dairy and saturated fat, fast foods and sugar) and affects the very elderly, the obese, those with diabetes and heart disease (often caused by obesity) the unfit and those with hyper tension.

      Those from south Asia in the UK have a far higher rate of death than the indigenous community from CV and I posted yesterday a study that showed this sector have the same problems of health but apparently carry fat ‘in the ‘wrong’ places so even though they may be nothing more than overweight that causes similar problems to obesity in other communities..

      Also lets not forget vitamin D is vital for all but especially so for those whose heritage is from warmer sunnier countries.

      tonyb

      • tony,
        Look at the chart above. Those metro areas have similar demographics, folks with similar habits and lifestyles. It’s seems to me that it’s the infection rate that primarily determines the death rate, at least around here.

      • “The spatial analysis has been conducted on a regional scale and combined with the number of death cases taken from 66 administrative regions in Italy, Spain, France and Germany. Results show that out of the 4443 fatality
        cases, 3487 (78%) were in five regions located in north Italy and central Spain. Additionally, the same five regions show the highest NO2 concentrations combined with downwards airflow which prevent an efficient dispersion of air pollution. These results indicate that the long-term exposure to this pollutant may be one of the most important contributors to fatality caused by the COVID-19 virus in these regions and maybe across the whole world.”

        Another potential factor to consider.

        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7151460/

    • The problem I have with some of these comparisons is you may be comparing different stages of the disease in a population. Even in ordinary flu seasons at any point in time there are states with high infection rates and states with lower rates. I’m not an epidemiologist, but I would think you need to reach a certain critical mass of infections in a population to trigger a major outbreak. It may be difficult to reach that critical mass in sparsely populations areas but probably even areas with modest populations will likely reach that point eventually. It just may be taking longer for that to happen. So Dallas, for example, may be low compared to New York now but when you look back a year from now the numbers may be more comparable unless we have a vaccine, a decrease in virulence from mutation, or some other variable intervenes to alter the scenario.

      • To add one other thought. We are only in the fifth month of the worldwide pandemic and really only the second month in the United States. These things go for two to three years. With no vaccine or mutation, it will get everywhere eventually so trying to make sense of differences now probably doesn’t make any sense.

      • Yes, note I said I had no point of view. As I’ve gone through a lot of these data over the last several weeks my most common reaction has been ‘why is that? I have more questions than answers, and I’m sure that will be true for the coming months.

        I just hope the researchers involved will be providing those answers.

      • Yes, it may be more difficult for other jurisdictions to reach the critical mass of infections that they reached quickly in tragic NY. Perhaps It would make you happy, if we put the Cuomo-De Blasio syndicate in charge of those areas that aren’t keeping up.

  111. Perspectives on the Pandemic | Dr. John Ioannidis Update: 4.17.20 | Episode 4

    • Thanks for the link:

      I have been arguing all along that the mortality data should not be aggregated across age brackets. Although it’s kind of amazing that even as Ioannidis talks about the problems of doing so, he nonetheless does so himself with extrapolating from the Santa Clara data.

      As for his arguments about the impact of mandated social distancing orders – he treats the various outcome pathways as being a binary forking path. In other words, he completely ignores that many of the economic and psychological harms taking place under “lockdowns” will simply not disappear if the economy is opened contemporaneous with high rates of infection. The harmful outcomes are not only a function of the social distancing orders, but from the concerns about being infected irrespective of whether such orders are in place.

    • I’ll also note that he talks about the uncertainty resulting from the “dying with” vs. “dying from” Covid-19 issue.

      However, he fails to discuss the uncertainty about number of deaths given that people are dying without being tested (e.g., dying at home).

      Why does he only talk about the uncertainty on the one side of the issue?

    • I’ll also note that he talks about the uncertainty resulting from the “dying with” vs. “dying from” Covid-19 issue.

      Ok, a valid issue.

      However, he fails to discuss the uncertainty about number of deaths given that people are dying without being tested (e.g., dying at home).

      Why does he only talk about the uncertainty on the one side of the issue?

      Seems pretty weird to me.

  112. Robert Clark

    DATE NEW CASES INCREASE % # TESTS
    4/14/2020 31,184
    4/15/2020 21,018 -10,166 -32.6 139,343
    4/16/2020 34,858 13,840 65.8 154,017
    4/17/2020 31,790 -3,068 -55 148,690
    4/18/2020 29,564 -2,226 -7 168,397
    4/19/2020 27,354 -2,210 -7.4 139,511
    4/20/2020 28,249 895 3.2 183,117
    Tests are not increasing very much. Maybe restrictions should be lowered.

  113. COVID-19 is bacteriophage: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339008515_The_2019_Wuhan_outbreak_is_caused_by_the_bacteria_Prevotella_which_is_aided_by_the_coronavirus_possibly_to_adhere_to_epithelial_cells_-_Prevotella_is_present_in_huge_amounts_in_patients_from_both_Chin

    This is the reason why treatments with antibiotics have shown excellent results, e.g. Dr Sabine Paliard-Franco in Lyon’s countryside (France) uses one Macrolide (Zithromax, Zeclar, Rulid ou Josacine) and for cases with a poorly tolerated pneumonia an association with a 3rd generation Céphalosporine (CEFTRIAXONE) or Cefpodoxime. She’s got excellent results:
    https://blogs.mediapart.fr/basicblog/blog/160420/covid-19-traitement-au-macrolides-du-dr-sabine-paliard-franco-le-rapport-disparu

    3 other MDs, i.e. Denis Gastaldi, Jean-Jacques Erbstein and Olivia Vansteenberghe, working in Morhange, Créhange (Moselle) et Wormhout (Nord) (France) have also reported excellent results with Azythromicyne:

    http://www.leparisien.fr/amp/societe/sante/coronavirus-trois-medecins-generalistes-pensent-avoir-trouve-un-possible-remede-13-04-2020-8298963.php

    This would also explain why Pr. Raoult’s combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azythromicyne would mainly work thanks possibly more to the second than the first…

    It seems too unfortunate that the general guidelines seems to be: virus = no antibiotics.

    In any case when 70% of your patients die in ICU

    Something else must be tried !

  114. I was going to say sorry for being OT but maybe it really isn’t.

    For the first time ever Oil Futures traded in negative territory. Closed at about -$37 a barrel WTI. That was for May settlement, so tomorrow June starts trading.

    Last year we had first time ever negative yielding Sovereign Debt.

    We don’t need more first time ever situations.

    • Historic day for oil markets as WTI crude closes below zero for first time
      Of all the wild, unprecedented swings in financial markets since the coronavirus pandemic broke out, none has been more jaw-dropping than this collapse
      U.S. crude oil futures turned negative on Monday for the first time in history, ending the day at a stunning minus US$37.63 a barrel as traders sold heavily because of rapidly filling storage space at the key Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point.
      https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-drops-to-21-year-low-with-storage-filling-as-demand-shrivels

      • The CAGW Corps have tried to give me a guilt trip about what is going to happen to my grand children from global warming in the 50 years. Actually, I worry a lot more about the sustainability of a robust economy that we had in the second half of the twentieth century. We’ve gotten off to a crummy start since 2000, with growth in real Adjusted Gross Income only 1/3 of annual growth rate between 1945 and 2000.

  115. Robert Clark

    For those of us who were born at the end of the silent generation and the beginning of the baby boomers know what life can be like when we all work for the common good. Our parents lived thru the war. Everyone worked together. They kept that mind set until the unions took over.
    We just worked together . The virus is dying. Lets keep it up and when this is over act as our parents did and work together for the good of our country.

    • What’s this about unions taking over? They’ve been on the decline since the beginning of the baby boomers.

    • Robert Clark

      An observation of the Government compared to the working public after WWII
      At the beginning of WWII The American citizens got together and formed a community to defeat the enemy. They worked as one to defeat the enemy. The soldiers went over seas and worked together as one for the betterment of all. Back home all worked together to support their soldiers.
      After the war they formed unions with the same purpose. All were equal and those with the better skills were allowed to work at the peak of their ability. Eventually the union leaders determined they could have more members if they limited the output of their better workers. This is leading to the downfall of the unions. The large unions are still in existence because they control the industry. The auto industry, the construction industry, the health care industry, etc are all controlled by unions. The largest industry controlled by unions is called United States Government. The unions are called the Democratic party and the Republican Party. They are working together.
      We have showed we can work together and defeat this virous. We have a President that believes in the rights of the people. Look how they are throwing country into debt and taking advantage to consolidate their combined power.
      Listen to the President and his team of dedicated citizens. With another four years he can begin to get things under control.

      • Look at the graph. The peak union membership was before the start of the war. Maybe back in those days we really did work together. And membership remained high during the 50’s. Now it is lowest in a 100 years. You need to look for the problem somewhere else.

    • matthew

      I have made the comment before that in a supreme irony there will be many people walking round in 2020 who would instead have died of flu, or in a car crash or a murder etc who have been spared but will never know they are the lucky ones

      tonyb

      • Tonyb
        great thought and comment. Where is fizzy magic when we need him?

        Magical thinking on c-virus impacts overwhelmed logical thinking not the hospitals except for elderly in Italy and NY.. CBS news in US twice used video of Italy for US hospitals cause fake news.

        Open up and let us old ones self isolate and protect as we choose and free the people. Impacts on car crashes, elderly and comorbidities should be considered. Once testing continues to ramp up true impacts come out.
        Scott

      • Scott

        Here’s another thought for you to ponder whilst you self isolate;.

        What would the newspaper headlines have been over the last few months if CV had not come along and driven off every other subject, ?

        tonyb

      • One headline for sure, “orange man bad!” He caused this.
        Scott

  116. Rutroh. (translation Ut oh)

    Trump-Boosted Malaria Drug Showed No Benefit In Study At Veterans Hospitals

    https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2

    Researchers did not track side effects, but noted hints that ydroxychloroquine might have damaged other organs. The drug has long been known to have potentially serious side effects, including altering the heartbeat in a way that could lead to sudden death.

    Don, checked your organs recently? Might be a good time to unload your stock pile before the market crashes.

    • Jimmy, Jimmy

      When I saw this AP “article” I was wondering which one of you virus cheerleaders would be rejoicing first.

      “Researchers did not track side effects, but noted hints” That’s useless information.

      AP’s BS:
      “The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday.”

      Yeah, it wasn’t a rigorous experiment. It wasn’t a randomized, double blind placebo controlled trial. It wasn’t a trial. It was a retrospective. It wasn’t the largest look at HDQ. Recently Dr. Didier Raoult clinic reported treating 2500 patients with HDQ+Az with 10 deaths. I would say the VA is somehow killing a lot of COVID 19 patients, that would have had a much better chance of survival under Dr. Raoult’s care.

      All patients had received the standard of care. The HDQ and HDQ+AZ patients n=200, with 52 deaths. Standard of care only patients n=158, with 18 deaths. First look at this tells us that the VA should not be treating COVID 19 patients. A naive conclusion would be that HDQ is far more deadly than the virus. This study is inutil. They are using HDQ all over the world and this ain’t happening. Period.

      • The TDS media will flog this VA “study” vigorously. My wife just watched Juan “Left Loon” Williams try to get a doc he was interviewing to say that this VS BS proved that HDQ was no good. She said, meh.

      • That should be “VA BS”. And it was the female doc who said, meh. My wife said something else.

      • Don –

        The VA, on average, treats people who are older and sicker than typical populations. Fatality rates from this disease are higher among those who are older and with comorbidities.

        Maybe people should take preprints with a grain of salt. Like with those Santa Clara and LA County studies.

      • The TDS media are on a vendetta against hydroxychloroquine. They ignore any report that is positive and hype anything negative. Looks like AP told a lie in their original report and then surreptitiously made a sly semi-correction:

        AP
        “Earlier this month, scientists in Brazil stopped part of a study testing chloroquine, an older drug similar to hydroxychloroquine, after heart rhythm problems developed in one-quarter of people given the higher of two doses being tested.”

        This is the AP byline story run on this WBUR online site. See if you can spot the difference:

        https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/21/hydroxychloroquine-more-deaths-no-benefit-study

        WBUR
        “Earlier this month, scientists in Brazil stopped part of a hydroxychloroquine study after heart rhythm problems developed in one-quarter of people given the higher of two doses being tested.”

        The drug was chloroquine used in high dosages in the arm of the trial that was discontinued. Hydroxychloroquine is a different drug with a significantly better safety profile. Of course, AP wouldn’t mention that. The high dose arm gave 12g of chloroquine over 10 days, the low dose arm 2.7g in 5 days. Maybe they have should have called the former the poison dose arm.

        Somebody should stop them, but the Brazilian study is apparently still ongoing. They are testing on patients with severe cases resulting in ARDS. In other words, they are starting off with patients who have one foot in the bag already and they are using the wrong drug. That’s Manaus for you.

        Click to access 2020.04.07.20056424v1.full.pdf

      • Don Monfort: Recently Dr. Didier Raoult clinic reported treating 2500 patients with HDQ+Az with 10 deaths.

        Do you have the exact reference for the study?

      • That’s trivia and vague generalization, joshie? Have you read the retrospective? The ages of the groups, the comorbidities including Charlson index, the patients clinical tests etc. etc. are all there. Get back to me, when you can compare the fatality rates of the patient groups in this VA retrospective with whatever it is you are talking about. We’ll give you a whole week to go down that rabbit hole and re-emerge with something that is not inutil. See you on the 28th of April.

      • Matt, I believe it was discussed in some videos I posted here of interviews with Dr. Raoult. Don’t have time now, but will see if I can locate it.

      • Matt, I remembered where it was. Above
        https://judithcurry.com/2020/04/09/cov-discussion-thread-iii/#comment-914480
        Link to vid not work. Next comment in thread has title of vid on youtube.

  117. Robert Clark

    DATE NEW CASES INCREASE % # TESTS
    4/14/2020 31,184
    4/15/2020 21,018 -10,166 -32.6 139,343
    4/16/2020 34,858 13,840 65.8 154,017
    4/17/2020 31,790 -3,068 -55 148,690
    4/18/2020 29,564 -2,226 -7 168,397
    4/19/2020 27,354 -2,210 -7.4 139,511
    4/20/2020 28,249 895 3.2 183,117
    4/21/2020 32,037 3,788 13.4 138,451
    We are holding even. We need to have more testing
    All those that have self isolated themselves for over 14 days are probably clean,
    I hasn to be the retail workers we are missing

  118. Robert Clark

    DATE NEW CASES INCREASE % # TESTS
    4/14/2020 31,184
    4/15/2020 21,018 -10,166 -32.6 139,343
    4/16/2020 34,858 13,840 65.8 154,017
    4/17/2020 31,790 -3,068 -55 148,690
    4/18/2020 29,564 -2,226 -7 168,397
    4/19/2020 27,354 -2,210 -7.4 139,511
    4/20/2020 28,249 895 3.2 183,117
    4/21/2020 32,037 3,788 13.4 138,451
    4/22/2020 19,554 12,483 -38.9 143,549
    The chart I use is reset at 12:00 +7 GMT 7:00 CDT.
    It looks like the East Coast of the USA Does not make some times

    • > “Gyms, nail salons, bowling alleys, hair salons, tattoo parlors — it feels like they collected, you know, a list of the businesses that were most risky and decided to open those first,” Scott Gottlieb, former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, told CNBC on Tuesday.

      Gotleib is a fellow at the American Heritage Institute. Former member of the Trump administration.

      IMO, he’s also quite good on these issues.

  119. First confirmed deaths in U.S. were in Santa Clara County. One on Feb 6 and one on Feb 17. Virus suspected to have been here since December:

    https://disrn.com/news/health-officials-now-believe-coronavirus-has-been-circulating-in-us-since-december

  120. FDA approves first diagnostic test for in-home testing for COVID-19.

  121. For the past week I have recorded the following cases in the US: total, %increase.

    677570, 4.6%; 708823, 4.6%; 738792, 4.1% 763836, 3.9%; 792759, 3.5%;
    818744, 3.2%; 848717, 3.7%.

    deaths: total, %increase.

    34617, 6.7%; 37085, 6.8%; 39014, 5.0%; 40553, 3.9%; 42514, 4.8%;
    45318, 6.6%; 47659, 5.8%.

  122. The world must be producing CO2 at a significantly reduced rate. Would this be a good time to recalibrate climate sensitivity? Is total tropospheric CO2 as measured in Hawaii decreasing just a tiny bit?

  123. Study of 5700 COVID 19 patients hospitalized in NYC. 94% of fatalities had comorbidities. Ventilator was a death sentence. 88% of patients put on the breathing machines died. Outcomes for 2364 patients who had been discharged from hospital or died were reported, 553 died. That is not good compared to Dr. Raoult results with 2500 patients treated with HDQ+AZ in Marseilles, 10 died. Treatment with HDQ or AZ was not among treatments reported.

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184?

    Results A total of 5700 patients were included (median age, 63 years [interquartile range {IQR}, 52-75; range, 0-107 years]; 39.7% female). The most common comorbidities were hypertension (3026; 56.6%), obesity (1737; 41.7%), and diabetes (1808; 33.8%). At triage, 30.7% of patients were febrile, 17.3% had a respiratory rate greater than 24 breaths/minute, and 27.8% received supplemental oxygen. The rate of respiratory virus co-infection was 2.1%. Outcomes were assessed for 2634 patients who were discharged or had died at the study end point. During hospitalization, 373 patients (14.2%) (median age, 68 years [IQR, 56-78]; 33.5% female) were treated in the intensive care unit care, 320 (12.2%) received invasive mechanical ventilation, 81 (3.2%) were treated with kidney replacement therapy, and 553 (21%) died. Mortality for those requiring mechanical ventilation was 88.1%. The median postdischarge follow-up time was 4.4 days (IQR, 2.2-9.3). A total of 45 patients (2.2%) were readmitted during the study period. The median time to readmission was 3 days (IQR, 1.0-4.5) for readmitted patients. Among the 3066 patients who remained hospitalized at the final study follow-up date (median age, 65 years [IQR, 54-75]), the median follow-up at time of censoring was 4.5 days (IQR, 2.4-8.1).

  124. Robert Clark

    DATE NEW CASES INCREASE % # TESTS
    4/17/2020 31,790 -3,068 -55 148,690
    4/18/2020 29,564 -2,226 -7 168,397
    4/19/2020 27,354 -2,210 -7.4 139,511
    4/20/2020 28,249 895 3.2 183,117
    4/21/2020 32,037 3,788 13.4 138,451
    4/22/2020 19,554 -12,483 -38.9143,549
    4/23/2020 32,124 12,570 64.2 158,486
    It looks to me like we are treading water.
    More tests of the retail workers with contace to customers in needed.

  125. jungletrunks

    Nature magazine is becoming an embarrassment to any critical thinker, except with a certain predictable political class. But they’re good for covering tracks maybe?

    They surely provide license to print political science, as can be seen. There’s nothing quantifiable in Nature’s perspective other than framing a political slant that doesn’t pass the smell test. They retouch their narrative here; after all, for WHO the Wuhan lab represents the future, THE ‘reference laboratory’​:
    https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

    For a certain predictable demographic, (seen in CE) the before couched would represent reasonable analysis. But here’s the result of the handoff:
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3079293/coronavirus-nature-magazine-apologises-reports-linking-covid-19
    “British scientific journal Nature has apologised for associating Covid-19 with China in its reporting, saying that early coverage of the global health crisis by itself and other media had led to racist attacks on people of Asian descent around the world.”

    As the onion continues to be peeled back, revealing Chinese lies and the gullibility (or not) of philosophically simpatico western Leftists; it will be increasingly revealed that truth has never been a value for Leftists. Ideology trumps truth.

  126. nobodysknowledge

    A very interesting article on how COVID-19 is spread, and how it is not spread: By Jonathan Kay. COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons.
    “In fact, the truly remarkable trend that jumped off my spreadsheet has nothing to do with the sort of people involved in these SSEs, but rather the extraordinarily narrow range of underlying activities.” Many events bring people close together, but doesn`t spread the virus to many people. Other events are transport routes for the virus, as religious events, festivals, parties, funerals, sport events etc. It is strange that an amateur scientist does this work, and established science is lagging behind. It is also unknown how big doses of the virus that is needed for infection. “One critical factor in all this is that we still have no idea what the minimal infectious dose (MID) is for COVID-19—the number of viral particles required “to start the pathogenesis cascade that causes a clinical disease”—even if we do have some idea about what regions of our respiratory system the virus can use as a point of entry. Knowing the MID for COVID-19 would be invaluable, because it may well turn out that it is significantly higher than the viral load capacity of small droplets, not to mention the even smaller viral load typically delivered by glancing contact with an infected surface. This would mean that many of our current COVID-19-avoidance protocols, however well-intentioned, would be guarding against modes of transmission that aren’t really significant contributors to the overall pandemic.”
    https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/

    • Yes, that sample would be biased high for a national level extrapolation – but even still given the number of deaths in NY, the infection rate in that study would result in a fatality rate considerably higher than the flu – contradicting the claim of the authors of the Santa Clara study.

      But extrapolating from the NY study would be no better than extrapolating from the Santa Clara study.

      Bottom line – it’s waaaay to early to draw any conclusions with any real conviction. Not extrapolating from unrepresentative sampling is an important step to resolving these questions.

  127. an early failure for remdesivir?
    https://news.trust.org/item/20200423162137-vgafb

    FT is behind a paywall.

    Disappointing if confirmed by their other ongoing trial.