CoV discussion thread II

by Judith Curry

Time for a new thread.

To kick things off, here are some interesting articles that I’ve spotted recently.

Let me know when you are read for a climate thread, week in review or something.

Its time to face facts, America:  masks work [link]

Estimates show Wuhan death toll far higher than official figure [link]

The social distancing culture war has begun [link]

Coronavirus may have been spreading in humans for years [link]

The contrarian coronavirus theory that informed the Trump administration [link]

FDA issues emergency approval for antimalarial drugs in treating coronavirus patients – go.shr.lc/2Urn8uP

China created a fail-safe system to track infectious diseases.  Here’s why it failed [link]

Transcript of Dr. Fauci’s CNN interview [link]

Dr Zelenko (NYC) treatment protocol [link]

Mathematics of life and death [link]

Lessons from Italy’s response to coronavirus [link]

A brief history of RO and a recipe for its calculation [link]

The lost month: how a failure to test blinded the U.S. to Covid-19 [link]

Abbott’s new CoV test: We’re launching a test that can detect COVID-19 in as little as 5 minutes—bringing rapid testing to the frontlines. abbo.tt/IDNOW

Nicholas Christakis on CoV and children [link]

A just-published study finds 79 of 80 hospitalized, high risk patients with COVID-19 (Mar. 3-21 trial) shed viral symptoms within 8 days after Hydroxychloroquine and anti-biotic treatment. One 86-year-old who had irreversible co-morbid symptoms died. mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/upl

The virus that tells us who we are [link]

far from presaging climate action, COVID19 highlights 3 huge barriers to decarbonization: climate is more of a prisoner’s dilemma than pandemic; public buy-in for climate action is fickle; & curbing econ activity is neither feasible nor advisable [link]

How anxiety and crises change our political behaviour [link]

All the coronavirus statistics are flawed [link]

Ed Yong:  How the pandemic will end [link]

The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study [link]

Dan Sarewitz:  What the pandemic is telling us about science, politics and values [link]

Postnormal pandemics: Why COVID-19 requires a new approach to science [link]

Coronavirus exposes the problems and pitfalls of modelling [link]

Ted Nordhaus: How to End the Covid Crisis: a six-point plan for response and recovery.[link]

Rapidly identifying workers who are immune to COVID-19 and virus-free is a priority for restarting the economy | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal voxeu.org/article/rapidl

 

644 responses to “CoV discussion thread II

  1. Natalie Gordon

    Re Dr Zelenko (NYC) treatment protocol: Azithromycin is known to have its own well documented anti-inflammatory effect beyond simply being an antibiotic. It is no surprise to me that it would help COVID19. This combination looks extremely promising. I look forward to seeing more work done to validate it. Time is of the essence.

    • Agree completely. Yet here is what the AMA says: “Some pharmacies and hospitals have been purchasing excessive amounts of these medications [hydrochloroquine and azithromycin] in anticipation of potentially using them for COVID-19 prevention and treatment,” the American Medical Association, the American Pharmacists Association and the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists said in a joint statement. “We strongly oppose these actions.” (Source: MarketWatch, today.)

      So … hospitals are stocking up on hydrochloroquine and azithromycin because this is a promising therapy, but they should stop stocking up on hydrochoroquine and azithromycin because this is a promising therapy. Got it!! For a minute I was confused. For a minute, I thought they should have said that we need to ramp up production of these critical drugs. But it’s the AMA, they’re the authorities, and far be it from me to question authority.

      On a related note, it seems to me– I’m not a physician or even close to one– but it seems to me that the CDC should be pushing out this therapy as well as other promising therapies, asking for feedback on clinical experience in near real-time, and then collating those results and pushing them back out in near real-time. Suggestion: Dr. Fauci should stop giving so many interviews and attend to this.

      We don’t have time for formal clinical trials; this should be blindingly obvious, but I take nothing for granted anymore. We have to rely on near real-time clinical experience. Because, we DO want to get on top of this … don’t we??

      • Don132: We don’t have time for formal clinical trials; this should be blindingly obvious,

        recall first that what is obvious is seldom true.

        Placebo-controlled, double-blind studies with random assignment are the fastest way to the learn about the truth of the matter: actual success rate against the target disease in the population at risk, and actual rates of adverse events. (as to adverse events, the French studies discontinued the HCQ in some patients, with little reporting of details.) Every other method is slower at acquiring knowledge, in other words prolonging ignorance of some important details (like how many elderly patients will suffer fatal heart disease as a consequence of the HCQ.) It isn’t wise to postpone learning the truths of the matter on purpose.

        If you go to sciencebasedmedicine (please, please tell me no one goes there) you’ll find a hatchet job done on chloroquine and azithromycin–

        It’s a critique of the first widely reported French trial, and the criticisms are important. Readers should pay some attention to those critiques. Especially important is the evidently differential rate of discontinuation of the HCQ due to adverse reactions.

      • Matt, chloroquine not being a new experimental drug greatly reduces the risk of us being surprised by serious side effects. Cholorquine has been used in billions of doses over many decades across general populations to treat and prevent malaria. It’s listed in the World Health Organization’s List of Essential Medicines.

        I have taken some form of choloroquine for at least two years in the past and have been taking it for six weeks, since I learned from business associates in China that it was in widespread use and believed to be effective and safe. My research has not turned up any fatality related to its use that was not an overdose.

        My opinion is that the FDA bureaucrats made the correct decision in caving in to Trump and granting off label use, without waiting for end results from the usual extended clinical trial process. Those trials will proceed, but I wouldn’t want to be sick and be given a placebo. We should know within a couple of weeks if the stuff is going to help us get out of this mess with significantly fewer deaths. The risks are small and the benefits potentially enormous.

      • @ matthewrmarler | March 31, 2020 at 2:34 pm |
        For a more reasoned take of chloroquine read this: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220301145

        We don’t know if it will work or not. We need to try, no? If it works, it works, if it doesn’t, it doesn’t. We need clinical experience to be communicated in a coordinated effort in near real-time.

        sciencebasedmedicine is junk science. I’m sorry. I’m not going to discuss that except to say I know a lot about that site and it makes me want to puke. Believe it if you want to but remember: there’s not a single study out there that can’t be torn about, if that’s the object.

      • Roger Knights

        “So … hospitals are stocking up on hydrochloroquine and azithromycin because this is a promising therapy, but they should stop stocking up on hydrochoroquine and azithromycin because this is a promising therapy. Got it!!”

        What the AMA was objecting to was the purchasing of “EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS.”

      • If hospitals and pharmacies are stocking up on excessive amounts of drugs to potentially treat COVID-19, then my suggestion is that instead of chastising hospitals and pharmacies for buying the drugs, the AMA should be arguing for a ramp-up of supplies. I thought we were in an emergency, and I thought we needed to start preparing for a huge influx of patients who’ll need to be treated. But, maybe I’m misunderstanding the situation.

        From where I sit, there seems to be a battle going on regarding chloroquine and azithromycin. Some argue for trying it and seeing if it works, some physicians think it actually does work, and some, like the wonderful and informative and reliable website sciencebasedmedicine (sarc) argue for dismissing it outright. The CDC recommends chloroquine at least as a treatment option, so in my view the AMA recommendation should be directed toward getting enough supply, not hindering demand. Whose side is the AMA on?

    • If you go to sciencebasedmedicine (please, please tell me no one goes there) you’ll find a hatchet job done on chloroquine and azithromycin– this is the typical pseudoscience that site delivers. However, a more sober account is here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220301145

      U of Minnesota is staring a trial of hydroxychloroquine, but it seems odd they’re using a vitamin as a placebo. https://med.umn.edu/news-events/covid-19-clinical-trial-launches-university-minnesota

    • I’ve looked at both the initial 26 person Raoult trial and the later 80 person Raoult trial.
      To me, both have serious issues.
      The initial trial: the setup was a poor, even very poor. There are glaring differences between the placebo, hydroxychloroquinine (HCH from now on), and hydroxychloroquinine + azirthromycin (HCH+AZT) groups. In particular, the HCH+AZT had both upper and lower respiratory tract but neither the placebo or HCH groups had LRT. The age for everyone in the study was quite low. The HCH+AZT group was only 6 vs. much larger placebo and HCH only group. The data from tests was inconsistent: there are multiple cases where a NEG result was followed by one or more positive results. It also appears that the 26 patients were from 3 different hospitals in 3 different areas.
      The follow-on trial was also poor. There was no placebo. The age distribution was again skewed low, as was the number of people with pre-existing conditions.
      Lastly, I would note that the primary point of HCH is that it is supposed to prevent future viral infection of cells. Both trials were early – 10 days or less from onset of symptoms – yet there was not significant response in the HCH group in the first trial. Inclusion of many very young, healthy individuals would make it seem very likely that immune response/viral load reduction would occur anyway.
      Again, for me personally, neither trial seems particularly compelling. There is an appearance of cherry picking given the low numbers of at-risk demographics (i.e. 60+) in both studies.

      • Don Monfort

        Wolf You are correct. The Raoult “trials” are sketchy by the standards of double blind placebo controlled FDA compliant testing. Chloroquine has come into widespread use by clinicians in several countries treating cv patients because they have tried it and decided that it works and safe enough. Good for me in this emergency. We should know in a couple of weeks if the recent reluctant blessing from the FDA and increasing use will give us a better handle on how effective it is. Thanks for your thoughtful and informed analysis.

    • @Don Monfort
      The side effects of chloroquinine are well understood, albeit less so at the higher doses such as were used in the Raoult trials. I’ve seen rheumatoid arthritis recommendations for 2-200 mg hydroxychloroquinine tablets; the trial was using 3-200 mg tablets.
      There is, however, a potential negative effect to dosing with hydroxychloroquinine at clinically ineffective dosages on a large scale: novel coronavirus could develop an immune resistance to it.
      While nCOV seems to have a low mutation level compared to regular flu – it is widespread enough that there would be a lot of opportunity for resistance development. It is a single stranded RNA virus, after all, which are generally really bad at preventing mutation to start with. Certainly the Nextstrain data is showing many, many difference minor strains already albeit they’re not believed to be functionally different so far.

      • Curious George

        Don’t attempt to treat! Any treatment will kill only susceptible viruses, helping to develop resistant strains. :-)

      • stevenreincarnated

        600 mg for 2 days and 300 mg for 14-21 days when treating extraintestinal amebiasis. The half life of chloroquine is 45-55 days. Compared to 600 mg per day in his study for 10 days. Doesn’t look all that high a dosage to me just at a glance.

  2. Douglas B. Levene

    This crisis surely has highlighted some of the problems with models, especially models based on incomplete data. Among those problems are the tendency of the media to focus on the worst case scenarios with no understanding of the model problems. It’s almost as if they were looking for support for pre-existing conclusions.

    • The UK will today start adding in those people who died of covid 19 at home or in nursing homes rather than just hospital deaths. So the numbers are likely to leap as there is a time lag. The problem is that it will include people where covid19 is listed as one of the deceased’s illnesses so they almost certainly died WITH the virus but not BECAUSE of the Virus.

      I believe other countries including Germany and France count such deaths in different ways so the actual real death rate directly as a result of the illness is getting very difficult to determine.

      It is statistically highly likely people will have died because of one of their existing problems or of flu but these figures are getting increasingly lost in the hysteria, aided and abetted by the Media and social media

      tonyb.

      • In Germany we don’t differ. As long as you are testpositive you will go to the statistics for dead Covid patients.

    • Florian | April 4, 2020 at 5:22 am |

      In Germany we don’t differ. As long as you are testpositive you will go to the statistics for dead Covid patients.

      *

      In the UK we adopt the more inclusive WHO mandated approach to reporting our supposed “cv mortality” …

      For any deceased patient :

      https://judithcurry.com/2020/03/30/cov-discussion-thread-ii/#comment-912705

      WHO code U07.1 if they tested positive

      and

      WHO code U07.2 if they had not been tested AND were “suspected” or “probable” cv cases …

      That way we we get to count anyone and everyone as cv dead, regardless of whether they were or not …

      Thus upholding our strong tradition of non-discrimination …

      Also, SARS-COV-2 the alleged novel virus and Covid-19 the alleged novel disease, have also been added to the list of notifiable diseases, making reporting of even suspected case mandatory …

      Gov.uk : Notifiable diseases and causative organisms: how to report
      https://www.gov.uk/guidance/notifiable-diseases-and-causative-organisms-how-to-report

      “Accuracy of diagnosis is secondary, and since 1968 clinical suspicion of a notifiable infection is all that’s required.”

      MG

  3. Suggestive signs of a flattening out of daily deaths (a more reliable metric than cases, harder to miss) in a number of most affected countries; but beware the weekend dip in reporting. Tuesday evening the situation will be clearer.

  4. The tables and graphs showing the alarming increasing #cases should also show the corresponding increasing #tests We need to see the ratio #cases/#tests …. to determine how much of the apparent increase is just an artifact due to increasing #tests. Maybe all of the increase is artifact?

    Also, we need to see the evaluation of the test accuracy regarding percentage of false-positives. How many of the reported cases are false-positives? Some surprising information about missing test evaluation is given at site … no more fake news (and leave out the spaces)

  5. I have already linked to the European Monitoring of Excess Mortality for Public Health Action (EuroMOMO) site and their data showing a lower than usual excess mortality season. Here some more info from offGuardian:
    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/30/covid19-yet-to-impact-europes-overall-mortality/

    “So, the question is, if we didn’t have a lockdown in 2017, and we didn’t have a lockdown in 2018, and we didn’t have a lockdown in 2019….why do we have a lockdown now?”

    • First, it’s still stoo early to evaluate.

      Second, do you know what the mortality would have been absent social distancing policies? Perhaps the reason the rates are low this year is BECAUSE of the policies. Perhaps without the policies the rates would reflect COVID-19 deaths on top of mortality rates similar to previous years.

      These are obvious points. Why didn’t you think of them?

      • Thanks for paying attention to others commenting here, Josh.

      • Joshua

        With respect, many of us have been making similar points and parallel ones for over a month here and in other venues.

        In the UK for example, the average over the last 5 years has been 17000 flu deaths a year. The average disguises some very low years and the high years of 2014 with 48000 deaths and 2017 with 28000 deaths

        Because of the weather and that the vulnerable older group have been distancing themselves since January this is likely to be a low year. I do not expect combined corona virus and flu deaths here to be any higher than that worst year.

        Combined with that will be many who won’t die from car accidents, sports fatalities, obesity, drinking etc (less opportunity) because they are stuck indoors. Conceivably therefore because of the draconian lockdowns fewer people overall will die in 2020 than otherwise would. Should we therefore lockdown the country every winter?

        In the UK we have some 600,000 deaths a year of which the govt terms 140,000 as ‘avoidable.’ The ‘excess winter mortality rates’ also vary considerably ranging from 30000 to 80000 a year, often caused by people not being able to keep their homes warm..

        If we were serious about saving lives we should start with some of the shocking figures above which wouldn’t put the country and its economy into lockdown.

        with regards and keep safe
        tonyb

    • What is interesting here is that even without a ‘pandemic’ in 2017-18 there were perhaps 120000 excess deaths during flu season in Europe. Gives a little perspective to fatality numbers.

    • Very simple.
      We’ve a new, virulent viral pneumonia, with no vaccine, that unchecked, will swamp our healthcare system. Around 10% of symptomatic patients require respiratory support.
      The cases will pile up rapidly, so a lockdown is simply there to try & prevent that from happening.

  6. Link not working for “Coronavirus may have been spreading in humans for years”

    By the way, it is VERY likely that this virus is not new. Where is the evidence? Did anybody look for it before? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

    • The increase of numbers of intensive care patients requiring respirators because of severe pneumonia, with recovering severe cases requiring prolonged hospitalisation and ending up with permanent lung damage, is what is new here and has not characterised flu seasons up to now. Covid19 is new, just as SARS and MERS and swine/bird flu outbreaks were real and new. Evolution is real.

      • Phil, show me the evidence for the novelty of this corona virus (that it didn’t exist last year or any year before).
        Regarding acute respiratory diseases, the number is low this season, at least in Germany (and likely all over Europe because all-cause mortality is decreased):

        Yes, evolution is real.

      • In Germany the story’s not over.
        Yesterday for the first time there were >100 coronavirus deaths, and the daily rate is rising.

      • Phil, where has your skepticism disappeared? So-called corona deaths are just deaths with a very uncertain positive test result. Even if it was accurate, who knows how many other viruses are also present? It’s completely arbitrary to claim that people die of the covid-19.

      • phil salmon | March 31, 2020 at 3:53 am |

        In Germany the story’s not over.
        Yesterday for the first time there were >100 coronavirus deaths, and the daily rate is rising.
        *

        What do you mean by a “coronavirus death” Phil ?

        MG

      • Mark
        Something like this:

      • Phil.
        The images you post of chest xrays are noted. I have no idea how to interpret them nor how they compare to any other respiratory syndrome, severe, acute or otherwise. Neither do you I suspect. I do hope that you are not assigning every “reported Covid-19 death” to similar etiology ? That would be very foolish indeed, because the new WHO ICD-10 codes for Covid-19 death certification reporting, define much weaker criteria which certainly do not mandate chest xrays showing diseased lungs …

        You might benefit from reading about the two new classification codes U07.1 and U07.2 for Covid-19 :

        WHO.org : Emergency use ICD codes for COVID-19 disease outbreak
        https://www.who.int/classifications/icd/covid19/en/

        The COVID-19 disease outbreak has been declared a public health emergency of international concern.

        An emergency ICD-10 code of ‘U07.1 COVID-19, virus identified’ is assigned to a disease diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed by laboratory testing.
        An emergency ICD-10 code of ‘U07.2 COVID-19, virus not identified’ is assigned to a clinical or epidemiological diagnosis of COVID-19 where laboratory confirmation is inconclusive or not available.
        Both U07.1 and U07.2 may be used for mortality coding as cause of death
        In ICD-11, the code for the confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 is RA01.0 and the code for the clinical diagnosis (suspected or probable) of COVID-19 is RA01.1.

        More information on coding COVID-19 in ICD-10 ( PDF, 194kb )

        Click to access COVID-19-coding-icd10.pdf

        Phil, I look forward to seeing your analysis of all of the permissible circumstances defined by the WHO for classification of “Covid-19 mortality”.

        No chest xrays nor infected lungs required …

        MG

      • MG
        neither do you I suspect

        Wrong again. As it happens CT is my profession, albeit research (microCT) rather than clinical. But it’s the same method, whether Feldkamp-absorption based or Paganin phase contrast/retrieval. Orbital shadow projections processed by Radon back projection combined with something like a Hamming filter, plus deconvolution to sharpen the edges. There’s nothing mysterious about a CT image – it’s an easier technology to understand than MRI for instance with 3D image data from magnetic field and radio frequency gradients and lots of Fourier transforms. CT is simple compared to that.

        In the CT image (in standard non inverted mode) whiter means higher X-ray absorption – like bone – and blacker means lower X-ray absorption – like air. People colloquially call this “high and low density” which is approximately correct, although you have to bear in mind that a CT scan is nothing more or less than a 3D map of X-ray attenuation. What percent of incident xrays were absorbed in each voxel element? It is not dependent on mass density only but primarily on atomic number Z – especially at the low (10-60 keV) photon energies used in microCT where photoelectric absorption is the dominant interaction modality. For pe absorption interaction probability scales with Z^4, so it’s acutely sensitive for elemental composition. This relationship is the reason why we can do X-ray imaging and get contrast. (Compton scattering at higher X-ray energies is also z-dependent but less acutely than with PE.)

        So a healthy lung CT (both in a human and a rat or mouse 🐭 ) looks something like this:

        Notice how dark they are? That’s air – very little X-ray absorption. Contrast that with the coronavirus cases above. Those white patches are bad. They mean edema (fluid filling) and are accompanied by either inflammation or permanent tissue destruction.

        So why is covid19 any different from winter flu? Do you still not get it? Many others have explained it better than I can. Yes for most it is a mild infection in the range of flu and colds, but it has a very sharp tail at the <1% severe end where this severe viral pneumonia occurs. It’s simple really. You don’t get the run on respirators with every winter flu because there is not this sharp tail of incurable pneumonia. Pneumonia as a complication of flu is bacterial and antibiotic treatable. Covid19 pneumonia is viral and thus not treatable. Note that the “Spanish flu” of 1918 also killed people by viral pneumonia and immune over-reaction / cytokine storm. Both of these also characterise cv although at lower % and mainly – but not only – in old and compromised patients. A small number of young and healthy patients die of CV19 also. And remember that a small percent of a very large number can still be a large number.

        To answer your question “how do we know it’s CV19 that’s killing people? A fair question. But it’s circumstantial evidence – no normal flu epidemic results in so many severe pneumonia cases not treatable by antibiotic. Or the consequent shortage of respirators. The clinicians detect the virus and see – including with CT – the symptoms. The message is clear. Covid pneumonia will overwhelm hospital intensive care capacity without population isolation measures.

      • I do not know how a radiologist could differentiate between one viral pneumonia and another, but if they’re getting a high volume of scans a day, it’s not seasonal flu because that never happens. A large percentage of pneumonia victims associated with seasonal flu die at home or in hospice and have a DNR or all of that, and there is no imaging. Radiology never sees them.

      • Phil

        Thanks for the discussion. It has given me new insights.

      • Phil,

        As I already said, I have no idea how to interpret any of that, so quite why you insist on showing the world how much you know about xrays and the like is a mystery, unless of course, it was simply to point out my error in assuming you had no expertise …

        All of which is immaterial to the main point of my post and which, characteristically you choose to ignore yet again.

        How will you ever learn anything Phil if you do ignore anything which does not fit in with your world view ?

        The WHO mandates for Covid-19 mortality classification, include assumptions for “probable” cases Phil.

        No xrays, nor infected lungs required.

        Rendering your superfluous verbosity totally redundant.

        What do you have to say about that Phil ?

        MG

      • phil salmon: As it happens CT is my profession, albeit research (microCT) rather than clinical.

        That’s a good post

      • MG
        My blather about xray CT is incomprehensible to you
        Your blather about WHO emergency codes is incomprehensible to me.
        But this is what matters:

        “Shellshocked” from the “nightmare” he’s witnessed, a frontline hospital doctor has said people simply “aren’t comprehending how bad” the coronavirus crisis is. An intensive care doctor at one of the London hospitals hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak has spoken to ITV News about the nightmare he has witnessed in the last week and paid tribute to his colleagues.

        His appeal as he emerged from his shift “shellshocked” and scared was simply: “People aren’t seeing it, so are not comprehending how bad this is.” He added: “This is just the beginning of a nightmare.”

        Coronavirus: UK death toll jumps by more than 100 to 578 in biggest daily rise

        Reflecting on the impact of his recent shifts treating a growing number of critical patients with Covid-19, the doctor, who would like to stay anonymous, said: “My personality changed working on this… I was shell shocked…frightened… I still am.”

        He describes how he and his colleagues were all initially confused and “really scared’’. “I’ve seen a lot of colleagues – men, women, older, younger – in tears crying because of the tragedies of the people who have died. They are just exhausted, in despair,” he said.

        “Nothing ever has come like this…not in my career or anyone’s career. Not in a generation. Or for anyone alive today.” He went on: “This country has never seen anything like it. Not since the Second World War.”

        Significantly, this doctor believes that “we don’t know how many people are affected but I can guarantee its more than the number of people who have presented”. “We are just at the foothills of this compared to Italy,” he warns.
        “It is the same virus, there is no reason to expect it to behave any differently. It has come with a lightening bolt.”

        “Now we know’s what’s coming, it is not a dream. I know it’s not going to calm down, it’s going to be relentless.”

        This is why he has welcomed the news of a national lockdown this week, calling it “critical”. “We just have to try and arrest it in whatever way we can. We need it to suppress it, at least to try and catch our breath… at least to try and cope… as we can’t cope even with what we’ve got.”

        He added: “I think it needs to be at least three weeks at least” explaining that “incubation itself is two weeks so lockdown for less wouldn’t help. So it needs to be a few weeks for those who haven’t manifested yet else they will continue to spread it to others, as its dormant for two weeks.”

        He said: “What really gets my goat when people say (the lockdown) is too far… people saying its too extreme …They simply have no idea of the chaos going on around them as they haven’t seen it.”

        And he admitted wearily: “We may come to a point we cant do our best for them.”

      • Phil, I didn’t have you down for being that childish. You may benefit from growing up a little.

        It is not “my blather” it is from the WHO. I posted their “blather” as it is written.

        If you cannot or refuse to comprehend some simple prose, then you have no business posting on this matter,

        Here is the relevant WHO link again, which I suggest all should read and understand, to gain a perspective on the WHO criteria for classifying so-called “Covid-19 deaths”, vis the two new classification codes U07.1 and U07.2 for Covid-19 :

        WHO.org : Emergency use ICD codes for COVID-19 disease outbreak
        https://www.who.int/classifications/icd/covid19/en/

        There is a very simple PDF in that link – I suggest you read that too and understand the criteria for U07.2 specifically.

        I asked you what you meant by a “coronavirus death” and you replied with technical blather about your expertise in and a couple of images of xrays etc.

        The WHO links and the PDF therein, actually answer the question as to what a so-called “Covid-19 death” is.

        We do not have to rely on your definition Phil, whatever that maybe and however verbose and irrelevant chest xrays and their explanation may be to the question.

        It’s the WHO who do the defining. That is all that matters.

        Read the link and the PDF.

        Then please, do share your analysis of that Phil, specifically U07.2.

        Thanks.

        MG

      • Phil

        Your obsession with relying on notoriously unreliable media reports is noted once again.

        To be clear of my position on your “sources” and penchant for quoting them to support your position, which, as far as i can tell is a rather circular, self-referential affair, of, erm quoting media reports …

        Media reports allegedly quoting an alleged anonymous doctor at “one of the London hospitals”, do not cut the mustard at all.

        I recall your reliance on media reports about Chloe Middleton, whom, according to you and the media, whose reported coronavirus death, was just a device to be used to support your circular media driven mantra.

        As soon, as I post other media stories which contradict the originals, stating that she died form a heart attack, you run for the hills and refuse to comment.

        That behaviour is not what I would expect from anyone supposedly interested in honest, impartial evaluation of information.

        Your response to that issue would also be grealty appreciate Phil. This is the third time of asking …

        MG

      • phil salmon | March 31, 2020 at 12:49 am | Reply

        The increase of numbers of intensive care patients requiring respirators because of severe pneumonia, with recovering severe cases requiring prolonged hospitalisation and ending up with permanent lung damage, is what is new here and has not characterised flu seasons up to now. Covid19 is new, just as SARS and MERS and swine/bird flu outbreaks were real and new. Evolution is real.

        *
        Coronavirus Fact-Check #1: “Covid19 is having an unprecedented impact on ICUs”
        https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/02/coronavirus-fact-check-1-flu-doesnt-overwhelm-our-hospitals/

        MG

    • “Here we review what can be deduced about the origin of SARS-CoV-2 from comparative analysis of genomic data.” https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

      So your thesis is that they simply didn’t look for known pathogens – and on not finding the usual suspects didn’t go any deeper?

  7. stevenreincarnated

    Last numbers I heard from Zelenko were 699 with 2 hospitalizations.

    • Zelenko is not reporting on confirmed cases. Those are people who have come to him with some symptoms. But let’s say that 10% of them had the cv. 70 folks with only 1 or 2 hospitalizations would be good.

      There is better evidence for chloroquine drugs coming from hospital use in several countries. And big pharma is on board with the potential:

      https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-novartis/novartis-ceo-says-malaria-drug-is-biggest-hope-against-coronavirus-sonntagszeitung-idINKBN21G06O

      Novartis, Bayer, Mylan, Teva also donating tens of millions of doses.

      • stevenreincarnated

        The write up in Techstartups identifies them as COVID-19 patients. It would be pretty weak to be just anyone that had the sniffles.

      • I have seen reporting that they have not in a significant number been tested. If they had been tested, why not say so?

      • stevenreincarnated

        I don’t know but I also don’t know why bother talking about it at all if they hadn’t.

      • I am not going to argue about it. It doesn’t take long to find out:

        https://forward.com/news/national/442285/coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine-trump-doctor/

        “…He said he had been administering the cocktail to patients with shortness of breath of any age, and those over 60 years old or who are immunocompromised and exhibiting milder symptoms. He said he is not treating asymptomatic people under 60 who are healthy or low risk.

        Zelenko said that about 350 of the roughly 500 patients he has treated for coronavirus symptoms are from Kiryas Joel, while the other 150 live in the Monsey area, where his second clinic is located. He said he has largely not had his patients tested for coronavirus, because he worried that waiting for test results to begin treatment would compromise the treatment’s effectiveness.”

      • stevenreincarnated

        I didn’t say you were wrong, I just said it was worthless if he hadn’t. It appears it was worthless then.

      • Sorry, steve. I need to go work out on my heavy bag. I promised not to hit my wife, while she is confined to the house by Governor Newsom.

      • stevenreincarnated

        I’m sure she has a frying pan waiting on you.

      • They are locked up in the gun safe with the kitchen knives, forks and spatulas. I only allow them out at dinner time.

    • stevereincarnated: Last numbers I heard from Zelenko were 699 with 2 hospitalizations.

      With a gross (overall US) survival rate of 98.2%, you’d expect 686 survivors. It isn’t clear whether he had a healthier than average sample of patients. what’s suspicious is that he reports no adverse events: even the widely cited French study reported that they discontinued the treatment for some patients, and screened for patients who did not have heart abnormalities; adverse reactions are documented in the literature.

      I reported this study a few days ago with caveats, but my post was lost in the moderation queue.

      • stevenreincarnated

        The big difference between the two tests is one was on people already hospitalized and the other was before they were in that bad of shape.

      • stevereincarnated: The big difference between the two tests is one was on people already hospitalized and the other was before they were in that bad of shape.

        That may or may not account for the difference in rates of adverse events. It is an important detail.

    • So, it’s not the link this time. Point is the Chinese are at it, again.

      • Yea there’s a lot of stupid out there. I don’t think that is how it works anyway. As I understand one or more viruses occur in a host such as a swine that can host both “bat viruses and human viruses”. The two viruses then share genetic material within the host that allow it to move from the bat to the human. I believe in this case the common host may have been the pangolin.

      • We eat wild animals. They have viruses. Domesticated animals have viruses. We eat them. In beer joints in the US west they eat calf balls. There are wet markets in several parts of the world.

        I believe the story may well be completely fabricated. There is no proof presented they are selling bats. There is a photograph of stand sign that has a bat on it. It could be an old sign. There is also a photograph in one of stories that was taken in Thailand.

        China and Vietnam recently sign an agreement to ban wild animal sales between the two countries.

      • We take a little literary license in calling it the Bat Soup Virus. Sort of like CBS using video of a crowded chaotic Italian hospital to portray activity they claim is occurring in a New York hospital.

        https://www.motherjones.com/food/2020/03/the-surprising-history-of-the-wildlife-trade-that-may-have-sparked-the-coronavirus/

        “Of the 30-plus pathogenic diseases discovered in humans in recent decades, three-quarters are of animal origin. One study estimated that 700,000 viral pathogens in the animal kingdom have potential to infect humans. If wild animal consumption continues unabated, outbreaks like SARs and COVID-19 are likely the new norm.”

        In the wet markets they sell all sorts of wild animals including bats and pangolins. Genetic markers link the current popular with the left coronavirus to bats and pangolins. It wouldn’t be the only killer virus to come out of Chinese wet markets and be spread by people eating all sorts of critters for their ability to improve male virility, or make the eaters rich and famous.

        It would be refreshing to see some of our left wing friends get as outraged over the Chinese authorities letting this go on, as they do over how close POTUS Trump is standing to a person at the podium. Rather than blame the bats, or the pangolins or the Chinese with the weird eating habits, they need to blame Trump. Desperate.

      • “I believe the story may well be completely fabricated.”

        He doesn’t suspect, he believes. He usually would believe Mother Jones. Not this time. TDS. Desperation.

      • Professor Curry – this story is likely false, and it should be taken down as it could inspire violence against Asians living in the countries where this blog is read.

    • You have gone batty, so to speak. Did you read the links to DailyMail and Mother Jones? Mother Jones are DNC approved propagandists. You don’t believe your own people. You got it bad. Begging Judith to censor for you, is really childish.

    • http://www.grouprecipes.com/52476/bat-soup.html

      Mmmmm…

      I prefer a ‘roo teriyaki. There are many loose in Don’s top paddock.

      • I almost had some ‘roo teriyaki. Was playing golf on The Gold Coast one juicy one got close enough for me to hit it with a 3 iron. I had a 5 iron at hand so it got away. That looks like one of your fruit bats. They have a lot of meat on them.

      • In the Melanesian style it would be cooked with yams and potatoes and some leafy green ‘cabbage’ in a cream squeezed from grated coconut mixed with seawater to taste. You need a couple at least per serve for a meal.

        Culling golf course ‘roos – btw – is considered bad form. My mum was living on the Gold Coast until late last year. The ‘roos – these are in fact wallabies rather than outback ‘thumpers’ that can disembowel a dog or an unwary tourist – would come out of the bush and graze in the parks and on footpaths. These are much loved and semi domesticated animals. That said we eat wild goats, pigs, camels, rabbits and ‘roos that end up in the freezer of my local butcher.

        I am in fact inspired to take it “to surreal and extreme new lengths, with dishes like whole-roasted camel stuffed with a large goat, and possum served with salt-baked vegetables.” How about some sweet and sour cane toad legs?


        https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-29/mona-museum-cookbook-details-ways-to-eat-invasive-species/10940100

        It is a universal human survival behaviour. Daisy was leafing through a beautifully photographed coral reef guide on the way to a dive site off Port Moresby. “Mmmmm… yum….” Shellfish and giant clams that take a lot of cooking mostly. I have spear fished over coral reefs. Frankly – I find it akin to entering a cathedral and killing things. But each to their own.

        Your level of insidious racial profiling – however – with an excuse of a patina of unfunny ‘put down’ humour – leaves much to be desired. Troglodyte comes to mind and it is very off menu.

      • whatever

      • Robert I. Ellison | March 31, 2020 at 12:07 am

        The bat is a good touch.

        Your level of insidious racial profiling

        It’s not racial, it’s behavioral/cultural, in a locale where almost all of the residents are one race. Any group of people in that area who prepared those food items in that way would likely generate a bunch of related infectious viruses. The behavior has been criticized in numerous reports over the past 2 decades.

      • If it was Southern Baptists eating bat soup due to some dumb superstition and causing world pandemic, it would be OK to say that the hillbillily Bible thumpers done it.

      • “The dish, purportedly cowboy fare,[6] is most commonly found served at festivals, amongst ranching families, or at certain specialty eating establishments and bars.[5] They are, however, also readily available at some public venues (e.g., at Coors Field during Colorado Rockies baseball games). Eagle, Idaho, claims to have the “World’s Largest Rocky Mountain Oyster Feed” during its Eagle Fun Days (now held the second weekend in July).[7] Clinton, Montana, Deerfield, Michigan, Huntley, Illinois, Olean, Missouri, Severance, Colorado, and Tiro, Ohio also hold testicle festivals.[8] Rocky Mountain oysters are sometimes served as a prank to those unaware of the origin of these “oysters”. They are also considered to be an aphrodisiac by many people.[8]” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocky_Mountain_oysters

        This may not be the most unusual fare for southern Baptists.

        https://www.tvguide.com/tvshows/meateater/episodes-season-1/340589/

      • That’s beef. They eat it mostly because it’s nutritious, cheap, tasty and doesn’t cause deadly Worldwide pandemics. It’s called responsible eating.

      • “BCoV (bovine coronavirus) belongs to the genus Betacoronavirus within the family Coronaviridae, also including the closely related HCoV-OC43, which causes respiratory infections in humans, and the human pathogens SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV [11–13].”

        Not saying that eating bulls balls will give you a coronavirus – but I’m not risking it. LOL. And all sorts of critters are hunted and eaten in North America – like elsewhere – including mountains lions and bears.

      • That’s been going on for a while, bobbie. I forget the last time we had a horrible deadly worldwide pandemic attributed to North American hunting and wild game eating practices. Are you talking about the one about 9,000 years ago? That wouldn’t be the cowboys’ fault.

        If eating bulls balls caused pandemics, we would stop eating them. Make sense, bobbie? Google “Chinese wet markets”.

      • Animal virus’ are a mutation away from making a specy jump. It is just the way it works Donnie. Vacca being Latin for cows is the origin of the word for vaccination. The variola virus was one of the deadlier blights in human history over some 3,000 years at least. The MERS coronavirus is hosted by camels. Ebola by primates. Bird flu by birds. Swine flu by swine. The 1918 flu pandemic was a spillover from chickens. Lyme disease is a growing threat in North America.

        Ever killed and dressed animals for consumption little Donnie? There are inevitably blood, feces and warm intestines.

        There are many zoonotic diseases dear Donnie. And billions of virus’ and inevitable – if rare – spillovers between species. Whatever it means in your -xenophobic and politically opportunistic worldview – Chinese wet markets are the least of the problem. As much as you like to whine about it in that ugly and simple minded – not to mention aggressively deprecating – way.

        Poor Donnie – it may be somewhat beyond your capacity for informed analysis – but for the future what is needed are technological platforms for quickly dealing with crossovers wherever they emerge from.

      • Looks like Judith is removing my replies to you screwballs. Have you whining to the teacher. like your less intelligent bro, JCH?

      • This empty vessel rattling still up? Hmmmm…

    • Chinese eat bats, so do Pacific Islanders.
      What’s your point?
      Americans get lupus from deer tick bites, prions from eating kuru deer, rabies from bat contact.
      Wallace is more on point: industrial farming pushing small Chinese farmers out of primary markets – many into specialty “wild” animals (some farmed) which serve the similar market to organic products in the US.
      The industrial farming also creates huge genetically identical herds in which an animal virus can mutate, plus proximity to people as a path into a new population.

      • Don Monfort

        You want to know my point: Google Chinese wet market virus disease
        Some of you people are really thick.
        When is the last time Pacific Islanders caused a world wide pandemic? American deer ticks? Kuru deer? Rabies from American bats? Get back to us with the list and don’t forget to detail the numbers of dead. Thick.

      • @Don Monfort
        Half of the early cases didn’t have anything to do with the wet market.
        As for your response – all you highlight is that it hasn’t happened yet.
        Diseases happen – Western Europe went through its cycles of measles, tuberculosis, scarlet fever, etc including likely wiping out a huge number of Native Americans.
        As for “thick” – it appears your definition is based on disagreement with your views, as opposed to analysis.

      • Let’s stipulate that the Red Chinese are telling the truth for a change, and you have got it right that half of the early cases reportedly had nothing to do with the wet market. Then half of the early cases were connected to the wet market. And the virus comes from the freaking bats, or a bat connection to some other animal or human being. Are you trying to tell us that the virus wan’t connected to the wet market? Google Chinese wet market disease pandemic. Get your mom to help you. I won’t be reading any more of your ignorant yammering.

  8. Judith: “Let me know when you are read for a climate thread, week in review or something.”

    Yes, please! Both of the above. I’m fed up of everything being Covid!

    Should be in a position to contribute a series of 3 posts on a very interesting new climate psychology angle soon…

  9. A rather concerning development:

    A choir decided to go ahead with rehearsal. Now dozens of members have COVID-19 and two are dead

    Nearly three weeks later, 45(out of 60) have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.
    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

  10. The Federal Reserve estimates that unemployment may reach 32%.

    That would top the peak of 25% in the Great Depression.

    A rapid snap back this summer would seem likely, given the demand for dining out, drinking, ball games and flying, but we’ll see.

    There was a recession in 1918-1919, coincident with the Spanish Flu (August 1918 through March 1919), that seemed to snap back.

    • Economists are pretty universal in their opinion that the breadth of the recession will be dependent on how long the shutdowns last. I don’t see how we lift the shutdowns in just a few weeks and expect the virus to not re-appear if the shutdowns are actually making a difference though. IMO we could have accomplished the same objectives with more typical pandemic actions, e.g. isolate vulnerable populations, etc. Also more geographically targeted actions, the issues are greatest in the most populous areas of the country. Let those areas take more drastic actions if they had deemed it necessary. There would still have been economic impacts, they were already showing up before we shutdown large sections of the economy. IMO we could have avoided a recession and the destruction of livelihoods. And perhaps avoided 2+ trillion in additional public debt.

  11. Curious George

    I was disappointed by Ted Nordhaus’s essay. “With hospitals overwhelmed and corpses piling up faster in Italy and Spain than Italians and Spaniards can bury them, it is unconscionable that shelter-in-place orders have not yet been issued for about half the U.S. population.” Ted, please don’t make it look like everybody is going to die. You are out of your depth.

  12. I’ve been reading all sorts of stuff. In Belarus, the President is being a rebel and saying they’d rather live on their feet than die on their knees– I like that! Sweden is trying a less-than-lock-down approach, with little children allowed to go to school.

    Dr. Ioannidis makes reasonable points and questions whether the cure is worse than the disease, as half of us are likely to become wards of the state in the near future and businesses built up over lifetimes are about to be destroyed. A point made also by former British High Court Judge Lord Sumption, which for me is one of the most important things to listen to because it’s not just about health and saving every last life and panicking.

    During the American Civil War, if the physicians were in charge they would’ve recommended that soldiers remain at safe quarters until the enemy passed. Now, the physicians are in charge and that’s well and good up to a point, but for a virus which leaves the majority of the workforce unharmed (those under 60 aren’t the usual fatalities; those under 30 even less so, and the virus seems to spare children) it seems to be a bit excessive to let the economy free-fall in an attempt to save every last possible person.

    I’m not for cowering in our homes, at least not for more than another two or three weeks. I think the people who are talking about months are either scared witless or insane or just plain scared witless. I know a lot of people will think I’m a foolish man who refuses to listen to authority (they’re right!) but I really, truly would rather live on my feet than die on my knees.

    But all that said, and for all my bluster, Ioannidis, that sensible man, is right: we need more data.

    Anyhow, here’s Sumption: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHE3OerDKEY

    • We have given up on contact tracing in this country. So many denied tests – despite the president’s lie that if you want a test you can get a test. He’s still denies there has been a problem with testing. You can’t fix a problem if you deny that it exists.

      10 out of 10 he says.

      People with symptoms told to go home and self-isolate. NO CONTACT TRACING. NONE. ZILCH. NADA. NIENTE. BUPKIS.

      If you have no effective contact tracing, insufficient hospital resources, a lack of PPE, no fever clinics, and then if you don’t have state sponsored social distancing, you are consigning millions to die, tens of millions to be hospitalized, tens of millions to be quite ill.

      Who will go to work thinking that someone in their office might be infectious? Who will eat in a restaurant thinking that their wait person might be infectious?

      What do you think the economic impact of those developments might be?

      You need to think this through a bit more.

      This is not a choice between social distancing and severe economic impact.

      • Joshua: Social contact tracing is a local responsibility, not a federal responsibility. News stories told me is was occurring in Seattle and Colorado a few weeks ago, but the people on the front lines didn’t have enough tests. Just because contact tracing isn’t in the news today doesn’t mean it isn’t happening. In all likelihood, the resources to do so are now probably overwhelmed, which is stupid because we now have millions of people out of work that could use a temporary job.

        Ensuring that we had enough testing kits to met demand was the CDC’s job, but subject to oversight from the Executive Branch. Obama opened an office for pandemic diseases in the National Security Council and Trump closed it. FWIW, Americans knowingly elected a president with no appreciation the bureaucracy, someone who would disrupt it and not be controlled by it.

      • Frank –

        > Social contact tracing is a local responsibility, not a federal responsibility.

        There is no inherent reason why it is the responsibility of the one mutually exclusive of the other. It is a joint responsibility.

        Obviously, the lack of testing is what made comprehensive contact tracing impossible. There is enough blame for the lack of testing to go around that it can be shared on multiple levels.

        But the lying about how “anyone who wants a test can get a test” is inexcusable. The lies about tens of millions of tests rolling out to a Walmart parking lot near you weeks is also inexcusable.

        That lying is not singularly responsible for the lack of testing, and thus the lack of contact tracing, but it is a contributing factor. If Trump isn’t forced to face and be accountable for the problem he won’t mobilize everything he can to solve the problem.

        I can’t tell you how sad it makes me that his supporters are so mezmorized by his cult leadership that they will continuously make excuses for his lying.

        It is literally causing deaths. Its not like lying about crowd sizes.

      • Roger Knights

        Frank: “Obama opened an office for pandemic diseases in the National Security Council and Trump closed it.”

        That was only intended to assist foreign countries in dealing with pandemics, wasn’t it?

    • Don132: The question of whether the cure (economic damage) is worse than the disease can be evaluate by comparing COVID-19 with seasonal influenza, another virus that causes a pandemic. Over the last 10 years, an average of 30 million (1 in 11) Americans come down with seasonal influenza. In one of those years, there were 60 million cases. This is despite about half of Americans being vaccinated (though the vaccine protects against perhaps only half of the flu strains that circulate in any year. In 1918, when a novel strain appeared and there was no immunity, it was 1:3. Coronavirus seems to be transmitted at least as easily influenza and there is no expectation of immunity. So 100 million American cases of coronavirus is possible.

      About 500,000 American influenza patients are hospitalized every year, about 1 in 60 of those who get the flu. These cases occur during the winter months. Peak need for hospitalization during the worst week in a normal year might be 50,000. Since America has 1,000,000 hospital beds and 100,000 ICU beds, this doesn’t place much of a strain on the system. However, only local resources, these national number can be misleading. In any case, our health care system is prepared to deal with this influx of patients.

      What happens if 1 in 10 COVID-19 patients needs hospitalization and we have 100 million cases? That is a problem that is 20-fold greater than seasonal influenza. The health care system will be strained locally and some patients MAY die waiting for help. Political leaders can’t stand by and do nothing if it means their citizens might die due to inadequate health care. Deciding to intervene is driven by political survival, not a cost-benefit analysis. In Wuhan, the Chinese built two emergency hospitals in 10 days to help handle the patient load. NYC is taking over its convention center for patients and screaming for more ventilators. Northern Italy has been a disaster. If as many as 1 in 10 patients needs hospitalization, an exponential increase in cases probably will overwhelm the local resources available to deal with the problem. This appears to me to be what we are seeing in several locations.

      • Frank, not disputing that this is serious, but it seems to me that the focus has to be on ramping up treatment, testing, and using a targeted approach such as suggested by Dr. David Katz. If the Chinese can build hospitals in a matter of weeks, it seems to me that we– the US, supposedly the richest and most capable country on earth– can manage to ramp up our hospital capacity, get test gets out, organize and implement a strategy to protect the most vulnerable while allowing a good portion of the economy to restart, ramp up production of apparently vital drugs such as hydrochloroquine and azithromycin, and get protective equipment out. But, I see that my list is already far too long and daunting. I’d mention that the CDC also needs to gather and collate clinical experience for treating COVID-19 (how ’bout that hydrochloroquine and azithromycin?) and get that back out in near real-time, but I want to keep the list as simple as possible.

        Hospitals around the country have been overwhelmed by flu cases in recent years, did you know that?

        “The 2017-2018 influenza epidemic is sending people to hospitals and urgent-care centers in every state, and medical centers are responding with extraordinary measures: asking staff to work overtime, setting up triage tents, restricting friends and family visits and canceling elective surgeries, to name a few.” https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/

        2018: “Health officials in Southern California are warning the public that the current flu season is so intense that some hospitals are rerouting patients due to their increasingly limited capacity. From Laguna Beach to Long Beach, emergency rooms were struggling to cope with the overwhelming cases of influenza and had gone into ‘diversion mode,’ during which ambulances are sent to other hospitals, CBS Los Angeles reports.” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/overwhelmed-by-flu-cases-some-ers-turn-ambulances-away-california/

        But I suppose the best thing is to be paralyzed by fear, to work against the use of hydrochloroquine and azithromycin (as our brilliant AMA has done: hooray for the AMA!!) and look forward to a collapsed economy and utter dependency on government handouts. I suppose if we all start using heroin, we won’t mind. Government checks should be sufficient to support the habit.

      • > Deciding to intervene is driven by political survival, not a cost-benefit analysis.

        That is a gross overstatement. There is no clear distinction among caring for human loss, considering the economic implications of human loss, considering the economic implications of NOT intervening, and cost-benefit analysis.

        Arguments against intervening likewise reflect a mixture of drivers.

    • Don132 wrote: “If the Chinese can build hospitals in a matter of weeks, it seems to me that we– the US, supposedly the richest and most capable country on earth– can manage to ramp up our hospital capacity, get test gets out, organize and implement a strategy to protect the most vulnerable while allowing a good portion of the economy to restart …”

      Authoritarian regimes have some advantages in responding to crises, but the news of a crisis can be slow to reach authoritarian leaders. Wuhan’s hospitals were overwhelmed before they started working on new capacity. NYC started taking over its convention center and begging for respirators somewhat before the recent explosion. Federal, state and local governments have little or no legal ability to prevent Americans from traveling wherever they want to go, so we can’t completely isolate cities with the biggest problems and keep them from spreading. The crisis in China was still mostly localized in Wuhan when the Chinese first took serious action, but it is nationwide

      I found this video made (for his extended family) by a doctor working full time with COVID patients extremely enlightening. I know it is an hour, but try to get to at least 8:00-10:00 minutes before deciding how much to watch. I think we are going to need to practice social distancing until we learn the hygiene (hands and face) needed to prevent exponential spread of the virus. Exponential spread is always going to overwhelm local resources to deal with it. Unless you work with a lot of people or ride crowded public transit, wearing a face mask does far more to protect others than to protect you. And if the mask prompts you to touch your face more often or is unsanitary, it could cause more harm to the wearer. Some ordinary people might benefit from wearing masks, but until there is an adequate supply for health care workers and first responders on the front lines, the US public may not be advised when and how masks can help. Seoul may be the most densely-populated large city in the developed world and its metropolitan area contains half of the people in Korea. Korean culture and experiences, like SARS and MERS (and those of some other Asian nations), has made them better prepared to deal with pandemics than the US. Other than flu and HIV, the last deathly epidemic to hit the US was polio in the 1950s. We’ve been lucky.

      https://vimeo.com/399733860

      There is no substantial scientific evidence (ie, a placebo-controlled double-blind study) that chloroquine alone or with azithromycin are particularly useful in treating COVID disease. Remember, only a few percent of sick patients die from COVID, so side effects that cause serious problems for a small fraction of patients will cause doctors to hesitate to use with all patients. Chloroquine causes cardiac arrest in a small fraction of patients with QT prolongation, so hospitalized patients probably need to get an EKG before taking chloroquine. And chloroquine is used to treat lupus and rheumatoid arthritis, so it has immuno-suppressive activity. The above video discusses clear evidence that taking ibuprofen to reduce fever leads to worse outcomes. There is unambiguous evidence that chloroquine has anti-viral activity in cell culture experiments, but the effective concentration is high (IC50 about 1.5 uM) and slightly higher than peak blood levels after dosing. (Effective treatments for HIV require almost continuous exposure to drug levels 10X higher than the IC50 in cell culture experiments.) Neither drug interferes with one of the viruses few unique biochemical processes, so the therapeutic window may be narrow.

  13. “German researchers plan to introduce coronavirus ‘immunity certificates’ to facilitate a proper transition into post-lockdown life, as Chancellor Angela Merkel’s handling of the crisis has led to a boost in the polls.

    The antibodies will indicate that the test participants have had the virus, have healed and are thereby ready to re-enter society and the workforce. The researchers plan to test 100,000 members of the public at a time, issuing documentation to those who have overcome the virus.

    The researchers will use the information to determine how to properly end the county’s lockdown, including re-opening schools and allowing mass gatherings.

    The immunity certificates are part of a research project being carried out at the Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research in Braunschweig in coming weeks which will conduct blood tests to look for antibodies produced against the novel coronavirus in the general public, reports German magazine Der Spiegel.

    “Those who are immune can then be given a vaccination certificate that would, for example, allow them to be exempt from any (lockdown-related) restrictions on their work,” said Gerard Krause, the epidemiologist leading the project.”
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/29/germany-will-issue-coronavirus-antibody-certificates-allow-quarantined/

    • > The measures that will bring this nightmare to an end include: first, more and better testing, and the tracing of every contact that an infected person makes.

      We have given up on contact tracing in this country. So many denied tests – despite the president’s lie that if you want a test you can get a test. He’s still denies there has been a problem with testing. You can’t fix a problem if you deny that it exists.

      10 out of 10 he says.

      People with symptoms told to go home and self-isolate. NO CONTACT TRACING. NONE. ZILCH. NADA. NIENTE. BUPKIS.

      • We haven’t given up on contact tracing, we just have to get things under control first. Things are too out of hand to do it well. Right now focus has to be on reducing spread flattening the curve. Contact tracing is also difficult to do here because of legal in privacy issues. We will have contact tracing by the fall or winter. We will shift toward it as things peak and we can think about easing restrictions in June.

      • > Things are too out of hand to do it well. Right now focus has to be on reducing spread flattening the curve.

        Contract tracing is a necessary part of flattening the curve.

        Telling people with significant but not (yet) fatal symptoms to go home and self-isolate is not a practice conducive to contact tracing. Where are the “fever clinics?”

        I thought we’re doing a great job.

  14. Re The New Yorker link:
    “the contrarian coronavirus theory that informed the Trump administration [link]”

    Why does the road to White House science advice so often run from high school debating team to Liberty University, and on through law school, and the Federalist Soceity ?

    The climate wars evolve slowly enough to tolerate nonsense being said by pundits and publicists. A pandemic literally gone viral is quite another matter

    https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2020/03/monday-mirthiness-double-feature.html

    • This provides good hope that there will be some seasonality. However the high viral load and shedding may mean that transmission is much more related to on tact than to airborne transmission, this might mean the effect will be small.

  15. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/29/germany-will-issue-coronavirus-antibody-certificates-allow-quarantined/

    Germany will issue coronavirus antibody certificates to allow quarantined to re-enter society

    Researchers to test thousands for immunity as Berlin plans exit strategy for pandemic lock down

    The antibodies will indicate that the test participants have had the virus, have healed and are thereby ready to re-enter society and the workforce. The researchers plan to test 100,000 members of the public at a time, issuing documentation to those who have overcome the virus.

    • Ihre Papiere, Bitte!

      techcrunch.com : Bill Gates addresses coronavirus fears and hopes in AMA
      https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/18/bill-gates-addresses-coronavirus-fears-and-hopes-in-ama/

      GatesNotes.com – the blog of Bill Gates also has the Q&A posted :

      GatesNotes.com : 31 questions and answers about COVID-19
      https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/A-coronavirus-AMA?WT.mc_id=20200319223000_Coronavirus-AMA_BG-LI&WT

      My thoughts on what to do now and other topics.

      By Bill Gates
      March 19, 2020 13 minute read
      […]

      What changes are we going to have to make to how businesses operate to maintain our economy while providing social distancing?

      The question of which businesses should keep going is tricky. Certainly food supply and the health system. We still need water, electricity and the internet. Supply chains for critical things need to be maintained. Countries are still figuring out what to keep running.

      Eventually we will have some digital certificates to show who has recovered or been tested recently or when we have a vaccine who has received it.

      *
      MG

  16. Reiterating his point, Mr. Trump added, “I haven’t heard about testing being a problem.”

    Jesus.

  17. Meanwhile, back in Cuomo-DeBlasio syndicate run New York city. While the city is in the midst of the cv epidemic, subway crowded:

  18. https://www.bing.com/search?q=covid-19&qs=HS&sk=HS2&sc=5-0&cvid=9C40723FAF924FF59EB76A6A26A7C6D3&FORM=QBLH&sp=3
    Shows the total cases for the day before and the total new cases for that day in smaller numbers next to it. We know the number of tests is increasing while the time for results from each test will be decreasing. If that number starts going down, that would be the best we can hope for.

  19. By next week, or sooner, Sweden will be forced to abandon its relaxed approach to cv19 and lockdown like the rest of Europe.

  20. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Note the development of the Spanish epidemic over time.

    “In the United States, the disease was first observed in Haskell County, Kansas, in January 1918, prompting local doctor Loring Miner to warn the US Public Health Service’s academic journal. On 4 March 1918, company cook Albert Gitchell, from Haskell County, reported sick at Fort Riley, a US military facility that at the time was training American troops during World War I, making him the first recorded victim of the flu. Within days, 522 men at the camp had reported sick. By 11 March 1918, the virus had reached Queens, New York. Failure to take preventive measures in March/April was later criticised.

    In August 1918, a more virulent strain appeared simultaneously in Brest, France; in Freetown, Sierra Leone; and in the U.S. in Boston, Massachusetts. The Spanish flu also spread through Ireland, carried there by returning Irish soldiers.[citation needed] The Allies of World War I came to call it the Spanish flu, primarily because the pandemic received greater press attention after it moved from France to Spain in November 1918. Spain was not involved in the war and had not imposed wartime censorship.”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

  21. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Rapid tests for the detection of antibodies should be developed to detect people who have immunity. These people can help a lot in the long run.

  22. Ireneusz Palmowski

    I’m sorry, but this is how nature works, and man has no influence on it. One outbreak of the virus will be extinguished, and new mutations will appear in other areas of the world.

  23. Anybody seen any news of the EU bureaucrats sending any of their 70,000 ton hospital ships to Italy, or Spain. They could use some help.

    https://i2.wp.com/www.citizenfreepress.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/iconic-comfort.jpg?ssl=1

    • So far only Russia and China are sending help to those countries. The Good Samaritans.

      Meanwhile, in countries such as France and no doubt others, deaths up to now may have been under-reported. Outbreaks and deaths in care homes on a serious scale have not been included in coronavirus statistics:

      https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52094491

      • For the USA at least, Russia, China and Iran are eternal, unconditional racial enemies.
        It’s the new 30’s, racism is OK again.

      • phil salmon: So far only Russia and China are sending help to those countries.

        “Help” from China contributed much to the current woes of Iran and Italy. Right now, the best help the Chinese could offer would be to stay in place.

        This does not have much to do with race, but it does have much to do with a Communist dictatorship, Communism being a European invention (what in China Mao Zedong called “Socialism with Chinese characteristics”).

      • Don’t be silly, phil. The thugs who control Russia, Red China, and Iran are thugs. The thugs who run the places are enemies of their own people.

      • Don
        All politicians are thugs but we like better the ones that smell like us.
        Putin offered medical help to New York and Trump accepted:

        https://www.rt.com/news/484623-russia-coronavirus-aid-us/

        No mention in BBC, ITV (UK), cnn etc.

      • Sorry, wrong photo! Trying again…

      • OK forget it, Imgur’s got coronavirus

        [Image of Russian aid plane]

        xx
        xxx xxxxxx
        xxxx xxxxxxxxx
        xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
        xxx xxxxxxxxxxxxx
        xxx xxxxxxxxxx
        xx xxxxxxxx
        xxxx

      • phil salmon: Putin offered medical help to New York and Trump accepted:

        I wonder how quickly the FDA will approve its use in humans.

      • RT is thug Putin propaganda, Phil. Most media outlets, even including fake news, don’t pay a lot of attention to what they say. :

        https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-italy-russia-military-convoy-supplies-useless-pr-stunt-2020-3

        I would prefer that our great POTUS Trump treat all thugs, like thugs. But he has the responsibility of trying to keep the peace and I don’t.

        More of your very interesting expertise on the medical imaging and less of this, please.

      • Don
        I appreciate your advice.
        Yes the Russians play rough and don’t play by our rules.
        And Putin sometimes acts as the brutal autocrat of Russian tradition.
        And I have read “Putin’s Russia” by (the now deceased) Irina Politkovskaya.
        However I have a Russian wife and speak the language. I visited Russia / Belarus /Ukraine ~20 times. Still I am quite far away from understanding them as a people. They look like us, dress approximately like us (apart from the white socks!!!) but psychologically are more different from us west Europeans than any people on earth.

        I suspect that all the narrative on Russia that informs your opinion on them is written by people who are not Russian and are to varying degrees predjudiced against them. Psychologically it is impossible for most people not to be predjudiced against Russians because of their differentness and how we are programmed to react to differentness (i.e. fear, hate, destroy). But they are also human and have their point of view.

      • We don’t have any problems with the Russian people, phil. It’s the thug KGB that run the country. They are not reformed.

      • Phil

        Surely you see the distinction between the people of a nation and either the system of government there or the leadership in that country. You have an analytical mind as evidence by your comments about the virus. There is nothing racist to say we have no use for a tyrannical theocracy in Iran and how they treat their own citizens. Or saying you deplore Sharia Law as it is practiced in some Islamic communities with executions of gays and stoning women who are buried up to their head, is not Islamaphobia.

        I still vividly remember JFK’s speech as we were eyeball to eyeball with Russia during the Cuban Missile Crisis. I was terrified and reading classified information decades later, I had a reason to be. But not once did I blame the Russian people. They were prisoners of the situation and potential victims as much as I was.

        To be against human rights violations and the lack of individual freedoms and liberties in China, is not having racist feelings against the people of China. We have sympathy for them for being deprived of what we have.

        We in America have fought FOR freedoms of people in other nations. We have fought and continue to fight AGAINST the leaders, thugs and systems of those countries who deprive those freedoms. Being against the tyranny in those countries is not the same as being as against their people.

        Me thinks you have read too much Liberal propaganda that attacks anyone who they lose arguments to of being (fill in your favorite ad hominem), which is following one of Saul Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals “Control the language, control the Masses.

      • Curious George

        Let’s hope that the Russian material does not have the Chinese quality. It is nice to know that one device in three might work, but it would be even nicer to know which one.

      • Don
        OK accusations of racism might be extreme. But I am not influenced particularly by liberal media. I happen to know Russia better than most countries so have a special interest. Since the end of the Cold War there has been some fine rhetoric but overall a big failure of imagination. Cold War thinking of them as enemies has persisted on a habitual not intellectual basis, and by the actions such thinking has engendered it has become self-fulfilling. Right now I don’t see anyone in the political scene in the US or the UK with the imagination to envision Russia as anything other than the eternal enemy to the east, and a convenient psychological prop as such. A good place to start would be to imagine what the last century or so looks and feels like for someone in Russia.

        Don’t forget that in the last world war against murderous tyranny, Russia was on our side. And despite what Hollywood and popular culture might say otherwise, their contribution was not entirely insignificant.

    • D*n

      The EU is heavy on bureaucracy and rules and very light on practical action which is why we voted out and had to practically engage in hand to hand combat with our political elite, the deep state and vested interests in order to extract ourselves, as they had no intention of letting us go.

      That the same interests are very much still alive in the US can be seen from the constant sniping at Trump from the first day of his Presidency.

      tonyb

      • richswarthout

        Tony,
        Right on! The US Left was deep into impeachment when Trump organized a coronavirus task force.
        Richard

      • I am curious whether the Brexit agreement included negation clauses in the event of an international emergency …

        The WHO declared a global health emergency on 30 January.

        The day before the UK was supposed to leave the EU and the start of the transition period …

        Did we actually leave ?

        MG

  24. UK-Weather Lass-In-Earnest

    This, from Post-Normal Pandemics from Waltner-Toews et al, suggests a very strong way forward IMO.

    “… The example of Taiwan shows that the post-normal model of deployment of science in society, one where trust, participation and transparency are carefully nurtured, can indeed deliver upon its promises …”

  25. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Source: Pulse of Medicine
    https://pulsmedycyny.pl/koronawirus-sars-cov-2-uszkadza-serce-986835?fbclid=IwAR22YMB6BEN5FGa-cRyCLfhHyIwr0Wqhf5ArNL8sDMPSgIip8F5NM7UFZRY

    SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus not only affects the respiratory system. “People who have cardiovascular disease such as hypertension, myocardial infarction or diabetes are more likely to die from coronavirus infection than those who are not burdened with these diseases. Observations also indicate that the virus can irreversibly damage the heart in previously healthy people “- says prof. dr. n. med. Adam Witkowski, head of the Cardiology and Intervention Angiology Clinic of the National Institute of Cardiology in Warsaw, president of the Polish Society of Cardiology.

    • Ireneuz Palmovski: Observations also indicate that the virus can irreversibly damage the heart in previously healthy people

      It binds to ACE2 enzymes located on the surfaces of cells of many kinds: cardiovascular muscle, intestines, kidneys, liver, as well as lungs. Many COVID-19 victims complain of digestive problems and sensory changes (loss of smell and taste.) The virus likely damages a lot of organs.

      • Many viruses can damage the heart…including common cold viruses. Is this one is uniquely damaging? I doubt we know that answer yet. Many viruses bind to the ACE2 receptor also.

    • The fecal oral route to transmission is also being neglected.

  26. After years of pushing for higher taxes on the wealthy, Pelosi now is looking at repealing the $10,000 limit on state and local tax deductions. Unsurprisingly, it affects California and New York millionaires disproportionately.

    But the tax increase doesn’t have the punitive public relations appeal of a nice 91% top marginal rate, so I guess it is ok to dump it into the trash pile of history.

  27. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The most obvious is the correlation with high levels of galactic radiation and low solar activity. They affect large temperature jumps and the increase of troposphere ozone. Also, an increase in UV radiation at the surface weakens immunity. The increase in ionizing radiation at the surface lowers people’s immunity around the world.
    https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/

  28. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Brazil may become a new great epidemic focus Covid-19.

  29. Ireneusz Palmowski

    You can expect a large number of all deaths in the UK. Also among teenagers.

  30. This from Susan Atkinson, a real journalist, on Dr. Fauci’s perhaps evolving opinion on the coronavirus. The article this article is based on was written “many weeks ago”, by Dr. Fauci. I am guessing this was the advice that Dr. Fauci was giving POTUS Trump, at that time:

    Fauci offers more conservative death rate in academic article than in public virus briefings
    In New England Journal of Medicine, nation’s infectious disease chief suggests COVID-19 mortality rate may end like bad seasonal flu.

    https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/fauci-offers-more-conservative-death-rate-academic-article-public-virus

    “[T]he case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%,” Fauci wrote in an article published in the New England Journal of Medicine on March 26. “This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”

  31. Flattening seems to be working so well, we will never be able to lift social isolation (aka economic disaster). If you are interested in some charts of the data and a model of how to get out of this with a partial unlock, which controls the demand for ventilators, see http://shulerresearch.org/covid19.htm

    • Ireneusz Palmowski

      Blocking will do little when the temperature in the north of the US rises above 20 C.

    • to Robert Shuler: In column 8 of your table, you are showing a transmission rate R = new cases/old cases / day.

      This key formula may be incorrect, in your model and in other models.

      I think that this transmission rate calculation would need to account for fact that the increase in number of cases per day is largely due to the increasing number of tests reported. So we need to see the ratio of #cases/#tests for each day. Is that ratio increasing? One hypothesis is that this ratio is flat, not increasing, and that the apparent increasing rate of cases is almost entirely artificial and due to the increasing rate of testing. If so, then there is very low transmission, or none (fake epidemic).
      Could you please show the relevant information (ratio) in your table? It matters. Thank you.

    • Robert Schuler: Flattening seems to be working so well,

      Thanks for your efforts.

      As a somewhat coarser approach, I have been computing daily new deaths/accumulated deaths (new deaths today/accumulated deaths through yesterday). Since 3/21 they have been: 0.33, 0.34, 0.33, 0.41, 0.21, 0.28, 0.19, 0.25, 0.12, 0.23. If the curve is flattening, it isn’t flattening much.

      Back to your point about partial unlock, we are partially unlocked now, with ~3/4 of all workers still at work, and likely to continue working. The best route to further unlocking will be to examine states and industries separately, and unlock in some reasonable order, starting perhaps with auto part manufacturers in regions that seem appropriate; construction supply manufacturers; wood products manufacturers.

      And as of yesterday, the tally of total confirmed cases in the US was 163,844. If only 1/6 to 1/10 of all cases have been confirmed, that’s 900,000 to 1,700,000 or so total cases, of whom appx 99.8% have not gotten sick and will not get sick; and there will be lots more by Easter (the next Big Day), and even more by Memorial Day Once antibody tests have been developed and are in production, it ought to be possible to start identifying them and allowing them to go back to work with very little threat to the rest of us.

    • Curious George

      How exactly is the “flattening” supposed to save lives? Only one way is being discussed – we can do with a smaller number of ventilators. And of course we are buying time in an eternal hope of finding an effective treatment. Is there any other benefit of the “flattening”?

      • Curious George: Is there any other benefit of the “flattening”?

        Reducing the strain on Nurses, Drs, and other hospital staff.

      • “Reducing the strain on Nurses, Drs, and other hospital staff.”
        Yes. Please see the video I posted April 3, 11:32. It’s an absolute nightmare out there. Stay well, everyone.

  32. Ireneusz Palmowski

    “Things seemed more ominous by early July. On July 9, The Seattle Times reported that the influenza in Spain had “spread over other parts of Europe” (“A Puzzling Epidemic”). On July 28 the newspaper noted that Camp Lewis had 327 cases of flu, but a week later the number had fallen to below 100. As late as mid-August there were reassuring reports that the count of flu cases at the army base continued to decrease, and no indication of any special concern. Even into September, the general mood was one of confidence. An optimistic commentator enthused, “It is a marvel, due to the perfection of our medical science, that there has been no widespread epidemic this summer of a more serious character than ‘flu,’ as the Spanish influenza and other allied fevers are called” (“Heavy Rain and Mud … “).”
    https://www.historylink.org/File/20300

    • 1918 flu deaths mostly due to aspirin poisoning (medical error) —

      to: Ireneusz. I hope that this history will someday be corrected, as the lessons there can help us now. Look at the research publications from Dr. Karen Starko, a retired pediatrician, which show that the recommended treatment in 1918 was a massive dosage of aspirin, a dosage that we now know to be toxic and causing the same symptoms (unusual for flu) seen in the 1918 flu deaths.

      • Ireneusz Palmowski

        “This virus communicates like nothing else that we have seen,” Cuomo told MSNBC late Monday. “This is like a fire through dry grass with a strong wind behind it. New York is just the test case for this. We’re the canary in the coal mine. There’s nothing unique about New Yorkers’ immune system. There is no American who is immune from the virus.”

      • It ravaged parts of the world that had very little access to aspirin. During the war years some of the ingredients were in short supply. When used, it’s likely aspirin is what allowed people to survive the Spanish Flu as it reduced fever.

      • Reducing fever doesn’t necessarily save folks, unless their temps are headed into the brain cooking range: generally fevers above 104F. Elevated body temperature enhances certain immune system responses. Do some research. You will be surprised. I hope this doesn’t make you angry, again.

      • If they had secondary HIB infections, that is what killed them. It is wickedly fast and aggressive and deadly.

  33. Steve Fitzpatrick

    Today I sen the following message to the Florida Department of Health:
    I have read much about the possibility of the compound hydroxy chloroquine being effective as a prophylactic against becoming ill with corona virus 19.

    Unfortunately, the results of placebo controlled studies of the efficacy of hydroxy chloroquine as a prophylactic (among health care workers) are months away.
    In thinking about this, I realized there may be a very fast and accurate way to evaluate prophylaxis without waiting for the results of studies which are just now starting. I suggest the following:

    1) There are many people in the USA who routinely take hydroxy chloroquine for autoimmune diseases like arthritis and lupus. The exact number of people with these diseases is not known, but estimates center near 1.5 million nationwide. If that is an accurate number, then there should be about 95,000 of these people living in Florida. If, for example,1/3 of these people take hydroxy chloroquine, then that is ~32,000 people. The number of confirmed positive cases of corona virus in Florida (as of today) is 6,338, or one person in ~3,300 for the entire state population. (Many more have tested negative, of course.)

    2) If there are 32,000 Floridians taking hydroxy chloroquine, and hydroxy chloroquine does not protect against corona virus 19, then we could expect about (1/3,300) * 32,000 = 9.6 people who tested positive for corona virus 19 and who are taking hydroxy chloroquine. If hydroxy chloroquine is protective, we would expect to see much less than 9 or 10 positives (zero?).

    3) The expected number of people testing positive for corona virus while taking hydroxy chloroquine would be best estimated from the number of people with negative corona virus tests who were taking hydroxychloroquine. Since the number of negative tests is far higher than positive tests, this larger negative test population provides a more rigorous estimate of the number of people with positive tests results who are also taking hydroxy chloroquine, assuming hydroxy chloroquine does not provide protection.

    4) The statistical power of the analysis would depend on the true frequency of use of hydroxy chloroquine and how far the number of positive tests are from the expected number of positive tests among those taking hydroxy chloroquine. In the case of complete protection (that is, zero positive tests among those taking hydroxy chloroquine), the statistical power would be very good, and a statement of efficacy could be made with confidence.

    5) The analysis could also be done prospectively: people administering corona virus tests could ask each patient if they are taking hydroxy chloroquine and report that to the state along with the corona virus test result. If that were done nationally, I believe we would have a definitive answer on hydroxy chloroquine within a week or two.

    I think this study would quickly prove or disprove the efficacy of hydroxy chloroquine as a prophylactic against the virus.”

    I (of course) got an automated thank-you email. I won’t hold my breath, but maybe someone will read it.

    • Steve Fitzpatrick: Today I sen[t] the following message to the Florida Department of Health:

      That’s a good idea.

      If you are up for it, I’d recommend you send the letter to lots of people: elected state and Federal representatives; newspapers; Anthony Fauci (I am sure that he has a staff for receiving letters); faculty in microbiology and epidemiology at a bunch of universities; the local medical and pharmaceutical societies; public relations and other people at the Big Pharmas, and the Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association.

  34. Steve Fitzpatrick

    Today I sent the following message to the Florida Department of Health:
    I have read much about the possibility of the compound hydroxy chloroquine being effective as a prophylactic against becoming ill with corona virus 19.

    Unfortunately, the results of placebo controlled studies of the efficacy of hydroxy chloroquine as a prophylactic (among health care workers) are months away.
    In thinking about this, I realized there may be a very fast and accurate way to evaluate prophylaxis without waiting for the results of studies which are just now starting. I suggest the following:

    1) There are many people in the USA who routinely take hydroxy chloroquine for autoimmune diseases like arthritis and lupus. The exact number of people with these diseases is not known, but estimates center near 1.5 million nationwide. If that is an accurate number, then there should be about 95,000 of these people living in Florida. If, for example,1/3 of these people take hydroxy chloroquine, then that is ~32,000 people. The number of confirmed positive cases of corona virus in Florida (as of today) is 6,338, or one person in ~3,300 for the entire state population. (Many more have tested negative, of course.)

    2) If there are 32,000 Floridians taking hydroxy chloroquine, and hydroxy chloroquine does not protect against corona virus 19, then we could expect about (1/3,300) * 32,000 = 9.6 people who tested positive for corona virus 19 and who are taking hydroxy chloroquine. If hydroxy chloroquine is protective, we would expect to see much less than 9 or 10 positives (zero?).

    3) The expected number of people testing positive for corona virus while taking hydroxy chloroquine would be best estimated from the number of people with negative corona virus tests who were taking hydroxychloroquine. Since the number of negative tests is far higher than positive tests, this larger negative test population provides a more rigorous estimate of the number of people with positive tests results who are also taking hydroxy chloroquine, assuming hydroxy chloroquine does not provide protection.

    4) The statistical power of the analysis would depend on the true frequency of use of hydroxy chloroquine and how far the number of positive tests are from the expected number of positive tests among those taking hydroxy chloroquine. In the case of complete protection (that is, zero positive tests among those taking hydroxy chloroquine), the statistical power would be very good, and a statement of efficacy could be made with confidence.

    5) The analysis could also be done prospectively: people administering corona virus tests could ask each patient if they are taking hydroxy chloroquine and report that to the state along with the corona virus test result. If that were done nationally, I believe we would have a definitive answer on hydroxy chloroquine within a week or two.

    I think this study would quickly prove or disprove the efficacy of hydroxy chloroquine as a prophylactic against the virus.”

    I (of course) got an automated thank-you email. I won’t hold my breath, but maybe someone will read it.

    • stevenreincarnated

      They could use that sample but I think a much better sample would be doctors that have been treating people with CV. There are plenty that have been prophylacting. They just need to make the survey anonymous since self medicating is often frowned upon. The last I heard we are about a month away from a prophylactic study results so it might be just as quick to wait for that at this point.

      • stevenreincarnated

        We might be further along than I thought. If Trump knows doctors have been prophylacting then he is going to want to know if it works.

    • What is the typical dose for RA or Lupus as compared to the dose people are trying for COVID-19?

      • stevefitzpatrick

        Short answer: not very different. Typical RA dosage is about 200 mg – 300 mg active drug per day, often split between two doses. (The dose of the di-sulfate form is higher because of the weight of the sulfate groups). Reported treatment for hospitalized patients with corona virus disease is about twice that.

      • So twice the amount is about the same?

      • Steve Fitzpatrick

        When the same drug is used as a prophylactic against getting malaria, the dose is only about 20% what is given when someone already has malaria. 50% dose as a potential prophylactic is actually pretty high. The available in vitro studies of coronavirus infections in human cell cultures show a broad range of hydroxychloroquine concentrations has measurable effect: 10% of the dose which completely inhibits replication of the virus still shows about 50% inhibition IIRC.

    • Steven Mosher

      ” I believe we would have a definitive answer on hydroxy chloroquine within a week or two.”

      err no. Think.
      think what argument you would make if there was no effect … You’d argue, the dosage wasn’t enough.
      You’d argue that we can be sure if they took the drug as directed.
      there are not any short cuts to clinical trials

      here’s an idea. you get on the drug and go volunteer in a an ER
      with no PPE

      • Roger Knights

        “Steven Mosher | April 1, 2020 at 7:10 am | Reply
        ” I believe we would have a definitive answer on hydroxy chloroquine within a week or two.”
        ———–
        “err no. Think.
        think what argument you would make if there was no effect … You’d argue, the dosage wasn’t enough.
        You’d argue that we can be sure if they took the drug as directed.
        there are not any short cuts to clinical trials”
        —————

        But, if there IS an effect, that’ll be definitive enough for continued use. And for short-cutting clinical trials, given the hudreds of lives saved by doing so.

      • stevenreincarnated

        If it doesn’t appear to be working then there is no imperative to begin treatments before clinical trials have completed. It is only when the anecdotal evidence is strong for treatment that the treatment begins before the completion of clinical trials and if the evidence is strong enough then the trials are cancelled on ethical grounds.

      • stevenreincarnated

        Yeah, what Roger said.

      • stevefitzpatrick

        “err no. Think”
        Err yes, I have thought quite a lot about this. If there were no statistically significant effect, then I would conclude there is no likely prophylactic action. You are imagining anything else. Of course there often have to be controlled studies to evaluate a treatment, and especially treatment with a new drug. But there are simple studies which provide significant heath data. Consider how control of dysentery was discovered.

    • Hi Steve,
      You should read this note from the Global Rheumatology Alliance:-
      https://rheum-covid.org/

      “Our mission is to create a secure, de-identified, international case reporting registry and curate and disseminate the outputs from that registry. It is our hope that the information collected will help guide rheumatology clinicians in assessing and treating patients with rheumatologic disease and in evaluating the risk of infection in patients on immunosuppression.

      We are asking that clinicians use this site to report any and all cases of COVID-19 in rheumatology patients, including those with mild or no symptoms. We anticipate that completion of the case report form will take 5-10 minutes and no protected health information is requested. We plan to use the relevant information from these cases to provide expeditious updates to the global rheumatology community.”

      I believe that one of the LUPUS organisations is doing the same thing.

      • stevefitzpatrick

        Hi Paul,
        Thanks for that. Good ideas tend to be duplicated. I hope they can generate statistically meaningful results pretty quickly.

      • stevefitzpatrick

        Hi again Paul,
        I may have missed it, but as best I can gather, there is no intent to examine the treatments for RA those patients who got corona virus disease were receiving. Treatment of RA with hydroxy chloroquine appears to be the second most common treatment, at least in the States. I don’t know about the rest of the world.

      • Hi again Steve,
        You should follow the twitter feed on the reference, which gives a high level summary of the first results in. The results note that 19% of the patients with positive COVID -19 tests were being treated with HCQ (no dosage information). Based on a very small sample so far (47 patients reported with COVID-19 positive tests):-

        “Medications prior to infection included methotrexate (29%), TNFi (25%), and HCQ (19%); approximately 80% were not on glucocorticoids.

        36% had no comorbidities, however 25% of patients were hypertensive.

        Presently, 100% of patients are alive, and 28% have resolved symptoms. 6% had ARDS, 4% sepsis, and 2% concomitant/secondary infection.

        Most patients (58%) received no treatment for COVID-19 except supportive care.”

        We can infer that just taking HCQ at long term dosage rates for these ailments does not eliminate the possibility of picking up some test-registration level of viral load. Frustratingly, the high level summary does not tell us how many of the patients who developed ARDS (6% is equal to just 3 patients) were on HCQ.

      • Steve Fitzpatrick

        Thanks Paul.
        It will be very interesting to see how their data evolves. I do hope they will ultimately break out co-incidence of severe illness (ARDS) and taking/not taking hydroxy chloroquine. One thing surprises me: the number of the 47 patients who were taking hydroxy chloroquine (9 people, 19%) is lower than I would have expected based on descriptions of standard treatment protocols. It would be good to know the % of all AR patients who take the different medications.

      • Don Monfort

        Steve,

        Could be they are using it to treat the most severe cases, as this doc in Michigan describes their treatment criteria. They wait until patients are pretty well gone. They may have been frightened by the TDS Gov. of MI, who a few days ago threatened action against docs who used chloroquine against cv. Subsequent to explicit official FDA approval for it’s use off label, she is now begging the feds for supplies of the drug. Maybe these docs should get a little bolder and use it on patients, before they get to be the most severe cases:

        Dr. Marcus Zervos is an infectious disease specialist at Henry Ford. He says staff at Henry Ford has been using hydroxychloroquine to treat the most severe cases of COVID-19 in hospitalized patients.

        “We are not using it in outpatients, we’re not using it in patients with mild infection, we are using it, however, in patients that are sick enough to be hospitalized with pneumonia that we feel are at risk of progressing their infection.” He adds, “We feel that there is data both from the early published studies as well as from our colleagues in China that have treated a number of patients to justify its use in the therapy of sicker patients that are hospitalized with coronavirus infection.”

        https://www.michiganradio.org/post/henry-ford-uses-hydroxychloroquine-treat-covid-19-symptoms-says-benefits-outweigh-risks

        Chloroquine is persistent in the body. It’s commonly used for malaria prophylaxis, gazillions of doses consumed over many decades. Safe for pregnant women in all trimesters and safe for infants. But they are waiting for folks to be severe cases, before use. Most health care workers in touch with cv patients should be using periodic doses of hydroxychloroquine. They can sue me if I am wrong.

  35. stevefitzpatrick

    Sorry about the duplicate comment…. not sure why that happened.

    • That makes sense, steve. “estimates center near 1.5 million nationwide” never occurred to me there were that many.

    • HI Steve,
      It might be good to send this to a politician, Scott, perhaps.
      I worry that otherwise this won’t be seen by anyone who could appreciate what a really good idea this is.

      • stevefitzpatrick

        Thanks John.

        If I can find Scott’s email I will do that… you could too, of course…. shotguns are sometimes more effective than rifles.

  36. Is the curve flattening in NYC?

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3564805&fbclid=IwAR12HMS8prgQpBiQSSD7reny9wjL25YD7fuSc8bCNKOHoAeeGBl8A1x4oWk

    I shall be surprised if this turns out to be true. It would be a welcome surprise.

    • They are saying the same thing about Italy. I don’t think so:

      • Huh? You arguing it isn’t flattening by using data that shows it flattening.

      • stevefitzpatrick

        Your data shows considerable flattening of both curves. Maybe you don’t really understand what those graphs are showing. If the cases were growing exponentially, then those lines would have constant slope, not gradually declining slopes as time passes.

  37. Here’s another model. 60,000 deaths by May 1, and 84,000 by July
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
    Looks like more BS.

    • Didn’t you say 5,000? Or was that just BS?

      • Feel free to call it that. Nobody gives a flying —- what you think. That was a lot more sensible than 1.7 million, then it’s 200k, 100k, 84k , and 60k by May 1. So far, I am more right than the so-called models and experts. I guess I won’t get the privilege that is afforded to the experts and models of changing my guesstimate every couple of days.

        We are not going to have 50k deaths, in April. It will be closer to 5k than 50k. Put that in your “hope Don slips up” file and get back to us, in May.

        I was optimistically factoring in the extensive use of hydroxychloroquine and possibly some other treatments that our great private sector is working on, which may very well come to pass. We non-TDS sufferers are allowed to be optimistic. The big pharmas are on board. Hundreds of millions of doses coming in via donations. The Donald got the ball rolling, and they want to impeach him for it. If it pans out, it will bend the curve down. We will know before May.

        Wouldn’t you gloom and doom peddling TDS boys be thrilled about that? Trump gets the credit. Landslide! Sometimes, I wonder if you characters are on the side of us humans in this. But no hard feelings. Your Trump checks will soon be in the mail. The man is a Saint.

      • I also didn’t anticipate the stupidity of Mayor Bill De Blasio and whoever that idiot is who in charge of New Orleans:

        Mayor Bill DePutz Blasio:

      • Steven Mosher

        “We are not going to have 50k deaths, in April. It will be closer to 5k than 50k. Put that in your “hope Don slips up” file and get back to us, in May.”

        so less than 27.5 K?

        March 31: 3867 total
        Don’s Prediction < 27,500+ 3867 ~< 31367 May 1st Less than this
        Current model: 37000 – 110,000 By May First
        So Don thinks may first cumulative will be Less than ~31K
        Models project 37-110K

      • > . Put that in your “hope Don slips up” file and get back to us, in May.

        I don’t hope you slip up, Don. There is little I want more in life now than for the deaths caused by this virus to be moreimited than projected by experts such as Fauci and Brix

        It’s really interesting how you hold on to this thinking.

        I don’t want to die, Don. I don’t want my family members to die. I don’t want my friends to die. I don’t even want Republicans to die.

        What explains why you project such a sick vision of what I want onto me?

        I can think of a few explanations.

        1) you are profoundly ignorant of what I want despite my telling you I don’t want these things.

        2) relatedly, the rush you get from being a cult member of a tribe with a glorified keader causes you to be so hateful that you attribute malignant attributes to people you see as being from outside your cult.

        3) you are so driven by malignant thoughts yourself that you cannot envision other humans as not likewise driven by such malignant thoughts.

        I vote for 2.

      • BTW, I’ll add to the list.

        I don’t want the stock market to tank (I lose needed money when it does).

        I don’t want my tenants to lose their jobs and not be able to pay rent (I largely depend on their rent for income).

        I want to be able to get back to my regular behaviors like shopping and attending group functions.

        I want to be able to see and spend time with my friends and family

        I want to be able to travel easily to places I live to go.

        These are all things I want far more than wanting you to be wrong, and you being right makes all if them closer to bring possible.

        Think this through, Don. There’s something faulty in your reasoning.

      • Don Monfort

        Mosh: So Don thinks may first cumulative will be Less than ~31K
        Yes
        Josh: I am not going to read that BS

      • At the coronavirus briefing on February 26, for example, Trump said all of the following: “This is a flu. This is like a flu”; “Now, you treat this like a flu”; “It’s a little like the regular flu that we have flu shots for. And we’ll essentially have a flu shot for this in a fairly quick manner.”

      • 2) relatedly, the rush you get from being a cult member of a tribe with a glorified leader causes you to be so hateful that you attribute malignant attributes to people you see as being from outside your cult.
        3) you are so driven by malignant thoughts yourself that you cannot envision other humans as not likewise driven by such malignant thoughts.

        ————————————————————-

        So we have divisiveness. Your descriptions work both ways. They apply to both camps.

        Glorified cult leader. Kind of makes working with the same difficult. The two camps are divided by the cult leader. The cult leader is the common enemy of the left. And unites them.

        People are trying to win the 2020 Presidency. It influences what they are doing now and today. They will take advantage of tragedies. To believe in some goodness that makes this not so, isn’t some path I am confident being on.

        You don’t want bad things. Now make that happen.

    • Don Monfort: Looks like more BS.

      It is compatible with the numbers I have been computing, rates of increase in cases and deaths. There has to be a dramatic change soon to avoid those large counts. Total US deaths as of the end of day 3/31 are 3889. New deaths are 748, an increase of 24% over 3156. (Numbers don’t add exactly. I have noticed that tabulations on different sites do not always agree with each other day by day, even when citing the same sources.)

      New York and New Jersey are responsible for about 37% of all new cases — some other states seem to be catching up.

      Right now, it looks like the next two weeks will be grim, though the death rates are still lower than heart attack daily death rates in ordinary years.

      • Don Monfort

        56,000 deaths from now until May 1? I respect your stats, matt, but I look at this strategically not so much statistically. Where are those 56,000 deaths going to come from? It seems to me it has to get a hella lot worse in NY, NJ and NO. That’s where more than half the deaths up to now have come from. Most populous state CA is only at less than 5% of U.S deaths and not seeming to be allowing this to get out of hand, like they have in NY,NJ, and NO. TX has had only 56 deaths. PA 63 OH 55. I read that hospitalizations have decreased by 20% in WA, the original hotspot from early on with 225 deaths, up to now. Hopefully, the folks in those deathly places are starting to take this seriously. If we are going to assume that the rest of the country is going to catch up to NY and even Italy and then get worse from there, then maybe it’s going to get really bad. But that does not make sense to me. How do we get 56,000 more bodies. Maybe the TDS guys have a way worked out. Anyway, I would be interested in seeing details of your analysis.

      • Matthew

        The question is why are countries like Italy and communities like NY so infectious?

        We might have a clue in our own communities in the UK. A disproportionate number of Muslims and Jews are dying here . In the case of Jewish people who represent only 0.5% of our population they are over represented 10 fold in death numbers, as of last week..

        The common factor in Italians and Muslims-I don’t know about Jews-is they tend to live together in multi generational homes, mix at frequent family get togethers, eat together, often sharing the same plate as its considered convivial to do so.

        So very close and constant mixing. I don’t know if they are also more susceptible to particular health conditions.

        Are a disproportionate number of people from other faiths or from the Italian communities being affected in places like NY?

        tonyb

      • Don Monfort

        There is a disproportionate number of Italians in high places, Tony. The Governor of NY and the Mayor of NYC. The Mayor has proven himself to be an incompetent clown and the jury is still out on the Governor. The Governor’s brother, fake news Fredo, has the coronavirus and the Governor fears that Fredo has irresponsibly passed the deadly thing to the matriarch. Stay tuned, for more news at 11.

      • Don Monfort: I look at this strategically not so much statistically.

        Looks like more BS.

        It’s foolish to ignore the data outright.

      • Mark Gobell

        tonyb :

        We might have a clue in our own communities in the UK. A disproportionate number of Muslims and Jews are dying here .

        *
        Do you have any links please tonyb ?

      • Mark

        I might do some digging myself. The first comment about jews came from the NHS probably last week and was then picked up by several newspapers because they amplified the disproportionate numbers dying and the very small numbers .as a percentage of the population

        tonyb

      • Mark

        Lots of conspiracy stories out there that the Jews started this!

        This isn’t the report I originally saw which was a quote from the NHS reported in a UK newspaper. However this one picks up the story

        https://www.timesofisrael.com/jews-vastly-overrepresented-in-uk-coronavirus-deaths-here-are-some-theories-why/

        It ,may well be the ratio has reverted to normal as events change so fast. A couple of weeks ago I was tracking the much worse than expected figures for Wales and Scotland, the first with a dysfunction NHS and a bad diet and the second with its famously bad diet. I might try and see if they have reverted to ‘normal.’

        tonyb

      • Hi Tony

        I see some parallels between this crisis and the housing crisis of 2005-2009, which led to the global financial crisis, in that if you focus on national averages you don’t really understand the threat to society. As of today, 25% of deaths and cases in the US are centered in just one city. NYC has ~45,000 cases and 1,000 deaths.

        During the housing foreclosure crisis 4 states had foreclosure rates that were multiples of rates in many states. California foreclosures increased by 2000% from 2005 to 2009. Nevada went up by 2200%, Arizona 1200% and Nevada 2200%. The national average was 400%. At the time, policy makers were looking at national averages and they missed those pockets of disaster. Consequently they didn’t see the calamity that was coming, starting in just a few locations.

        In a different way, if a health system isn’t flexible enough to address the pockets of disaster, it can’t be successful with solutions that address the averages. Yesterday, NY Governor said the state health system needed reorganization to recognize that to be effective it can’t be built to address geographic averages or temporal averages. The same goes for the national health system. We might have enough equipment and staff and capabilities to address the averages of the states and annual averages but it does no good if it cannot address the hotspots at the exact time they are in crisis.

        I hope in developing improvements of future systems we are cognizant of the Great variability in time and location.

        Not exactly to your point but important to look at how national problems sometimes are , for the time being, a local problem. I think the NYC breakout started at a Bar-mitzvah. That might have started on your side of the pond the theory of your virus epidemic.

      • Don Monfort

        I am not ignoring the data. We don’t data from the future. You are projecting. I am projecting. We will see how how it turns out. Why so testy, matt?

    • Do these models have value? They won. Assume that. What are the results? Economy going into the tank but be optimistic. I bought some more of an energy mutual fund. Are the models supposed to make us shut down 50% of our economy and borrow 3 trillion dollars? That’s value. If value is preventing 100,000 deaths, what is the trade off? Assume there are no trade offs. Fail.

      With GCMs, you won. Where was the value? Can’t find it. Same deal.

      • Ragnaar –

        > . If value is preventing 100,000 deaths, what is the trade off? Assume there are no trade offs. Fail.

        What if the models prevented more deaths than that? And 10s? of thousands of ICU hospitalizations? And thousands of hospitals from being overwhelmed with thousands of less serious hospitalizations? And tens of thousands of ER visits?

        And what if the use of the models, in preventing those things, lessens the length of time when people are afraid to go out in public, of visit their families, or go to concerts, or travel to other countries, or feel comfortable enough to go to work next to their office mates, and basically resume normal daily activities?

        Your binary construction that offers a choice of paying attention to the models and having normal activity is highly flawed.

        Why do so many people have such difficulty grasping that concept?

      • Because of the models, We did this. We are to add value. The models add value. What is that that they have added?
        Or we could say, The models are to diminish harm. But do not define harm, such as deaths, as the only thing. We can live today to lose in the future.
        The models are to help weigh everything, and decide what to do. They can be mis-used. As we’ve seen with GCMs. Their role is not to be right. A real model would include the United States economy. There aren’t any. A real model would look at the United States versus China 30 years from now. They’re toys.

      • We did this because Trump panicked. Then he remained calm. Then he panicked. Between total panic and coma calm, he was lucid, “People are dying that have never died before.” Then he panicked yet again. But, Paula White and Jerry Falwell reminded him Gawd picked Trump to save our Christian nation, so he rationally concluded he could “Brady” a miracle Hail Mary pass to Jesus on Easter Sunday.

        Sorry, I think when they said “the models show” he immediately agreed because he thought some strippers were going to do pole dances in the Oval Office.

      • Don Monfort

        You better get that fever checked. TDS. How are you going to be able to survive 4+ more years?

      • I have to award JCH the Comment of the Week again.

        Yes, if Trump just agreed with the models, he could do no wrong. The models are a religion.

        Calm > Panic > Calm > Panic

        What is the above? The system shudders before the collapse. Chaos at all scales.

        While Trump may be sunk by this, Biden sure looks good. He will not be able say his own name by election time if Trump doesn’t declare himself President for Life. What a bunch of lemmings endorsing Biden as they drop out of the primary contests. Amy K – dropped out to support Biden. Her legacy.

      • I might as well talk about the stock market. Above I said the system shudders before the collapse. That’s our recent S & P 500 index. I don’t think its ever moved like this in the past. I am not predicting doom, I haven’t sold one stock, I don’t own gold, but real estate has a place. Once the markets resolve, we will be in a new regime. This is the Dragon King. So I say.

    • Another thing to consider is that in the Diamond Princess cruise ship, there were 619 infected passengers, and 301 of those were asymptomatic. Not mild symptoms, but asymptomatic. This cruise ship as I recall had mostly older passengers– retirees enjoying their retirement, I would guess. So among a higher-risk population (since we know that this disease affects the elderly disproportionately) we have about 50% asymptomatic. How many more would be asymptomatic in healthy 30-50 year olds? Would we have 50% asymptomatic? 60%? 70%? How about 20-30 year olds? 70-80% asymptomatic? Would most of the population in fact be asymptomatic?

      It’d be nice to know how many of these positive cases– which we hear about all the time as cases go up, up, up– are actually asymptomatic, and in which age group they fall.

    • Don –

      > Josh: I am not going to read that BS

      OK. So maybe it is just #1.

      I pegged ignorance in #1. I guess I should have specified that it’s willful ignorance.

  38. more potentially good news:

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/california-pandemic-scientist-says-his-team-has-found-potential-cure-for-covid-19-virus-video/

    Forge past gateway pundit to the original source.

    Work on SARS CoV-2 is going on all over the US (and the rest of the world) and we are able to read of only some of it.

  39. This is the number of individuals that yesterday did not know they had the desease. Tomorrow they will be taking extra care to protect temselves, relatives and friends.
    Covid-19 cases daily change USA
    Date total cases % change
    3/28/2020 13813
    +22%
    3/29/2020 16826
    +28%
    3/30/2020 21504
    +41.8
    3/31/2020 30498

    • At about 7:00 PM EDT the number was 30,498 at11:00 the number is 25,234. I will keep the 7:00 number for my 24 hour number although I like the latter one better. Remember the number of tests is increasing very rappidly.

  40. As of the end of March the United States is under 4,000 deaths from covid-19. The most optimistic model shows that we’ll be at 80,000 deaths by the end of April. April’s going to be a scary month.

  41. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Bad weather forecast for New Jersey and New York.

  42. Ireneusz Palmowski

    In summary, the total incidence of COVID-19 illness over the next five years will depend
    critically upon whether or not it enters into regular circulation after the initial pandemic wave,
    which in turn depends primarily upon the duration of immunity that SARS-CoV-2 infection
    imparts. The intensity and timing of pandemic and post-pandemic outbreaks will depend on the
    time of year when widespread SARS-CoV-2 infection becomes established and, to a lesser
    degree, upon the magnitude of seasonal variation in transmissibility and the level of crossimmunity that exists between the betacoronaviruses. Longitudinal serological studies are
    urgently required to determine the duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2, and epidemiological
    surveillance should be maintained in the coming years to anticipate the possibility of
    resurgence.

    Click to access 2020.03.04.20031112v1.full.pdf

    • Wow! Great study proposal and much needed. I doubt the CDC would allow this, though, because that would mean we’d have some hard evidence.

      • Yes, very much needed but I agree, doubtful it could get funded. I am hoping, posting it here, could help it gain traction. You never know :-) .

  43. I have just watched for the umpteenth time an interview of a company CEO who has repurposed operations of their company to address a need in the fight against COVID19. In some cases the kind of product had nothing to do with their normal product line or industry. Other instances involved inventing a process or platform for a new service. There were examples of tooling up to production in days what years ago would have taken weeks or months.

    It’s a remarkable tribute to the ingenuity used in finding new technologies that have evolved over recent years and the ability to pivot so quickly to meet new needs in the economy.

    Dividends of Free Market Capitalism have never been so apparent.

  44. A nice article on role of dishonest science the covid hysteria:

    View at Medium.com

    It is time we demanded accountability and integrity from scientists. I hope we have official inquiries into all the modelling that went into decision making. We need tougher standards in publishing: reporting truthfully including data that weakens conclusions, including proper disclaimers, conditions under which conclusions won’t work and more direct and simple English instead of painful double negatives. We need end this cargo cult science that pervades science now.
    I am sure climate research will benefit plenty from this.

  45. Started my COVID-19 quilt weeks ago:

  46. Ireneusz Palmowski

    São Paulo reports 136 deaths and Rio de Janeiro has 23 fatal cases.

  47. About USA death numbers not blowing through Italy’s, it’s unavoidable:

    • JCH: About USA death numbers not blowing through Italy’s, it’s unavoidable:

      The top graph shows newly reported deaths (for the week) versus total accumulated deaths, but the X and Y values are nearly equal.

      Same problem on the bottom graph with newly reported and total confirmed cases.

      Is that correct? My calculations for total accumulated and total per last week are not that close together. It could be that the log scale is fooling the mind in this case. I get 75% of total cases accrued in the past week, which is bad enough.

      “Not winning” looks like a fair assessment, so far.

    • That would be NY blowing past Italy, if. The U.S. currently at 14 deaths per million population Italy 218. When do you think we will blow through that? But stay cheerful.

  48. Dr. Richard Capek and other researchers have already shown that the number of test-positive individuals in relation to the number of tests performed remains constant in all countries studied so far, which speaks against an exponential spread („epidemic“) of the virus and merely indicates an exponential increase in the number of tests.

    Depending on the country, the proportion of test-positive individuals is between 5 and 15%, which corresponds to the usual spread of corona viruses. Interestingly, these constant numerical values are not actively communicated (or even removed) by authorities and the media. Instead, exponential but irrelevant and misleading curves are shown without context.

    Such behavior, of course, does not correspond to professional medical standards, as a look at the traditional influenza report of the German Robert Koch Institute makes clear (p. 30, see chart below). Here, in addition to the number of detections (right), the number of samples (left, grey bars) and the positive rate (left, blue curve) are shown.

    This immediately shows that during a flu season the positive rate rises from 0 to 10% to up to 80% of the samples and drops back to the normal value after a few weeks. In comparison, Covid19 tests show a constant positive rate in the normal range (see below).

    Constant Covid19-positive rate using US data (Dr. Richard Capek). This applies analogously to all other countries for which data on the number of samples is currently available.

    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
    Scroll down.

    • So, this is not a spread of (new) virus/disease, but only a spread of the test.

      • edimbukvarevic: So, this is not a spread of (new) virus/disease, but only a spread of the test.

        My calculations based on the data at worldometers shows that the number of confirmed deaths is growing approximately exponentially in the US, with little sign of recent “leveling off”. That is probably not an artifact of increased testing.

      • No test, can’t die.

      • Matthew, that is also an artifact of increased testing – with the positive test, the deaths are simply called covid-19 deaths. All-cause mortality is not higher this season, it’s actually lower than last few years. In Europe:
        https://euromomo.eu/
        Even in Italy for example, mortality is lower than in 2017.

      • edimbukvarevic: Even in Italy for example, mortality is lower than in 2017.

        that’s worthy of more investigation: fewer auto related deaths, fewer deaths from elective surgery, etc.

        You might be right.

      • matthew

        We have been making these points for several weeks directly to our UK Govt. They were spooked by the Imperial College paper as were other govts.

        The figures for the UK are 600,000 annual deaths of which 140,000 are ‘avoidable’ according to govt stats.

        The excess winter mortality rates vary wildly year by year between 30 and 70,000.

        Flu deaths vary, but over here average 17000 a year, but that is made of some very low years and very high years of 48000 in 2014 and 27000 in 2017.

        Ironically deaths over here are likely to be lower than normal in 2020 due to the mild winter and that many flu susceptible people have been taking extra precautions since the end of January. So no visits to group activities or cinemas etc where flu traditionally spreads. So flu deaths are likely to be sharply down as will deaths from car accidents, drinking, sports accidents, murders etc..

        Covid 19 is now being treated as a notifiable disease so must be entered on the death certificate even if not the actual cause of death. So many of those dying will have multiple illnesses and might die WITH CV but not OF it but will be counted as a CV death.

        Not to minimise this horrible illness for which proper precautions need to be taken but I will be surprised if CV AND Flu deaths over here are any worse than in a bad flu year.. And why so little official concern about the 140,000 annual avoidable deaths?

        tonyb

      • tony b: Not to minimise this horrible illness for which proper precautions need to be taken but I will be surprised if CV AND Flu deaths over here are any worse than in a bad flu year.. And why so little official concern about the 140,000 annual avoidable deaths?

        See also the LA study below, and the “honesty in modeling” essay below Nic Lewis’ essay of today.

        This discussion will continue for a long time.

    • Thank you, edim! Thank you, for this post.
      Yes, that plot of #cases / #tests is exactly what was needed. It should have been shown by the CDC long before the $2trillion was committed.

      The plot is showing that the increasing number of cases (the apparent epidemic) is an artifact of the increasing number of tests. So, maybe this is just a fake epidemic.
      Next step is to look at the evaluation/accuracy of the test and its rate of false-positive results. But looks like no one has done the evaluation. One study, written in Chinese, indicated a high rate of error, but that study has now been withdrawn. Somebody needs to do the evaluation. The omission is teliing, as is the failure to timely show this very important plot of the #cases/ #tests.

    • Odd. I watched most of this 6-hour conference, which is still available, and Dr. Ioannidis of Stanford is conspicuous for his absence. In a conference on data, you’d expect to hear from someone who is an internationally recognized expert on data and it’s use, such as Dr. Ioannidis, who is right there in Stanford. Maybe this is because Ioannidis doesn’t agree that we’re getting, and acting upon, the best data. Most of this conference was about getting into the weeds/trees– how much granular data can we get, where, what can we do with it?– and not seeing the forest. IMHO.

    • I wonder how many people in Italy have died from drinking aquarium cleaner. We need something fresh to blame on Trump, who promoted this toxic chloroquine stuff as hopefully a tool to fight the Chinese virus. He has even bullied the FDA into reluctantly approving its use. Mainstream media mocked. Could be a disaster. Alert Jimmy Acosta, of fake news CNN. He can make his usual smarmy gotcha speech to undermine the POTUS at the next briefing.

  49. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The data suggested that by the end of February more than 43,000 people in mainland China had tested positive for the coronavirus but had no immediate symptoms. They were not included in the official tally of confirmed cases.
    Chang Jile, director of the commission’s Disease Prevention and Control Bureau, said on Tuesday that the government would step up screening and investigation of asymptomatic cases.
    “With effect from April 1, we will include reports of asymptomatic cases, any status change and how they are being handled, as part of our daily outbreak updates to address public concern,” Chang said. “We will strengthen our work in monitoring, surveillance, quarantine and the treatment of asymptomatic carriers, and do sampling in key areas to investigate and analyse these carriers.”
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3077753/china-include-symptom-free-coronavirus-carriers-national-figures

  50. WHO is a subsidiary of Chinese Communist Party:

  51. In an LA hospital, most patients presenting with symptoms did not test positive for SARS CoV-2 (> 90% negative):

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764137?appId=scweb

  52. Everybody please watch the 3/31 YouTube video from EM: RAP. These are ER professionals discussing what they are seeing, what treatments are not working, and how frightening it is.
    It is not government mandates that are slowing the economy; people are isolating voluntarily because they are trying to broaden the curve and reduce the load on the hospitals.

  53. Matthew R Marler

    Another low estimate of “true” case fatality rate:

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

  54. It appears this is updated many times during the day.
    Yesterday they did not know, tomorrow they will!!
    Covid-19 cases daily change USA 7:PM EDT
    Date total cases % change
    3/28/2020 13813
    +22%
    3/29/2020 16826
    +28%
    3/30/2020 21504
    +41.8
    3/31/2020 30498
    -12.4
    4/1/2020 26690

  55. So what’s the story here? According to the worldmeter.coronavirus charts of new deaths yesterday:

    States by population-deaths

    1. CA 40m 30
    2. TX 29m 4
    3. FL 21m 16
    4. NY 19m 505
    5. PA 13m 11
    6. IL 13m 42
    7. OH 13m 10
    11.NJ 9m 88

    NY and NJ again accounted for over half of cv deaths in the U.S. 1,049
    We have a NY problem. Specifically a NYC problem. That is the U.S. epicenter of the epidemic. The Mayor and his team of advisers and top administrative officials are responsible for this. They did not take prudent actions or give sensible advice, when they should have. They told the citizens of NYC to go about their business and have fun at the Chinese New Year Parade. Nuts.

    35 states had deaths yesterday, in the single digits. All but 4 of those states had counted deaths of 5, or less. Average deaths for the 35 states was 2.5.

    • By this same analysis you could prove back in January we had a China problem not a United States problem.

      • You are correct, James. The problem came from China. Go to the head of the class. Stick around, James. I can break you of your ignorance. You don’t want to learn, but I am forcing you.

      • D*n

        In a letter to one of the ‘quality’ newspapers in the last day or so a person who studied the subject and gained their phd back in the 70’s said it was common knowledge that all influenza strains that came to the west started in the Lakes district of China and were connected to the wet markets.

        Whether science has moved on and where the ‘lakes’ are I don’t know but when it comes to AGW stuff I tend to think of 1970’s data and before as being more reliable than modern material provided the science hasn’t genuinely moved on.

        tonyb

      • tony,

        All they have to do is Google it “Chinese wet market disease pandemic”

        About 1,850,000 results (0.45 seconds)
        Search Results
        Web results

        Infectious diseases emerging from Chinese wet-markets – NCBIwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov › pubmed
        by PC Woo – ‎2006 – ‎Cited by 118 – ‎Related articles
        Infectious diseases emerging from Chinese wet-markets: zoonotic origins of … route, with pandemic potential, are used as models to illustrate the role of Chinese …

        How wildlife trade is linked to coronavirus – YouTubewww.youtube.com › watch
        Mar 6, 2020 – And why the disease first appeared in China. NOTE: As our … wet markets. Now the real question is, “‘Are we ready for the next Coronavirus outbreak?” … I pray these wet markets STAY closed for the animals and for us too.

    • New Yorkers are packed in like sardines on the subways each day. And how are they going to maintain safe distances on those crowded sidewalks? Solutions, anyone?

      • Duh, stay in the house like we are doing in CA. And don’t congregate on the courts and play contact basket ball. Gov Cuomo, not Mayor De Blasio, just shut that down yesterday. Yesterday. They are dying like flies over there and the authorities are just starting to get it. The folks in Queens are not behaving as if they have any sense.

      • Subway ridership is way down but the transit authority is running few trains. The local authorities in NYC are culling over there:

  56. Convert New York into work-from-home only. Convert office buildings into condos. No commuting. Inter office communications electronic only. Live in the same building where you work. Food and essentials supplied by disease free workers with supplies ordered electronically. Renewal at age 35.

  57. Tonyb
    Hi
    Hope you are well as can be expected in Great Britain.

    All is medium ok here in SF. Shelter in place for us older ones. Seems be slowing in some metro areas, but not NYC which ignored warnings and urged Trump to not shut travel to China and back.

    This is massive economic impact. Death rates still comparable to H1N1 but free market response will help w N95 masks and new ventilator productions.

    I can’t imagine what deep Africa and S America will go through. Middle East except for Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

    Take care.

    • Scott

      Glad to hear that things are tolerable for you.

      Everything is fine in our little part of the world. We are fortunate in still having a pretty traditional high street with well stocked bakers, butchers greengrocers, fishmongers and pharmacies plus three medium sized supermarkets. Albeit operating with more limited hours and queuing in place to maintain social distancing but the Brits know how to queue.

      As we live within 500 yards of the beach we can go there as part of our daily exercise.

      Yes the economic damage will be huge as will the damage to peoples physical, mental, and financial health. Those in small properties or without gardens are likely to find considerable relationship problems cropping up as well so it is essential to reopen what can be safely opened as soon as possible.

      The best way to do that is isolate the genuinely endangered and test the rest, isolate those with the Cv, then test again. but we may have all missed the boat on that option.

      I still doubt that CV AND flu together will exceed that of a bad flu year in the UK. If so I think questions will be asked as logically we should close the economy every winter in order to save the 40000 a year over here that die of flu in a bad year. There are also 140,000 ‘avoidable’ deaths a year amongst which categories include those dying of cold because of expensive energy costs

      NYC and London are cases apart from the rest of the country. They are very different to the rest of the country whose space they occupy.

      Yes I imagine Africa will be badly hit although earlier reports seemed to suggest those in malaria zones/tropics have some sort of immunity

      best regards

      Tonyb

  58. I’ve gone over to the dark side. I now believe that this is a manufactured crisis. It’s like a bad flu, but that’s all. Spin is everything.

    I’ve seen crowd-sourced videos from NYC that show that even Elmhurst hospital, supposedly in the middle of this, has been quiet in the past few days, with ambulances parked. Same with other hospitals. So, take a look around. Is reality matching spin?

    • You are overestimating the intelligence and competence of the jokers who run NYC. They could imagine it, but they couldn’t pull off the manufacturing part. You have gone over to the dark side and you are spreading foolishness.

      • Professor John Oxford of Queen Mary University London, one of the world’s leading virologists and influenza specialists, comes to the following conclusion regarding Covid19: “Personally, I would say the best advice is to spend less time watching TV news which is sensational and not very good. Personally, I view this Covid outbreak as akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic. In this case we have had 8000 deaths this last year in the ‘at risk’ groups viz over 65% people with heart disease etc. I do not feel this current Covid will exceed this number. We are suffering from a media epidemic!“ https://novuscomms.com/2020/03/31/a-view-from-the-hvivo-open-orphan-orph-laboratory-professor-john-oxford/

        So, this argues for panic, and it argues that we’re seeing massive, absolutely massive, people at the hospitals in NYC overwhelming them, as one would expect in that city where people were so closely packed together in subways just prior to quarantine measures.

      • Don Monfort

        So, typically 500 people a day die of a bad flu in NY? Anyway, there are those who are panicking with dubious justification and those who are talking about going over to the dark side believing in a manufactured crisis. You all should get together, in NYC.

        The rate seems be to down so far today, tho. Maybe the manufacturing is faltering, or the Hydroxychloroquine is kicking in.

      • Don Monfort

        My reply stuck in moderation. I shouldn’t have bothered. Out.

      • Don Monfort | April 2, 2020 at 6:40 pm |
        My reply stuck in moderation. I shouldn’t have bothered. Out.
        *

        It appears that more than one of your posts are, as you suggest, “stuck in moderation”.

        Why do you think that is happening Don Monfort ?

        Could it be the result of a conspiracy designed to quell your abusive tendency ?

        My advice to you is this :

        Before you post further on “coronavirus deaths”, instead of making the mishtake of assuming that you already know, you might benefit from
        making an effort to fully understand what reported “coronavirus deaths” actually are.

        Then, you would not run the risk of your knee-jerky posts on same, appearing so ill-informed …

        MG

    • stevenreincarnated

      China had to take care if their whistle blowers after they got the word out. You think we have better control over our people than China does?

    • Don132: I’ve gone over to the dark side. I now believe that this is a manufactured crisis.

      Early on there was not much information, and it was prudent to consider some really extreme measures in case the situation should turn out bad. Now we have much more information, lots of resources have been mobilized, medicines and vaccines are in clinical trials. The worst of the early projections have clearly been shown to be wrong. There’s lots more reason to be relatively optimistic about getting everyone back to work starting soon.

      • “The worst of the early projections have clearly been shown to be wrong. There’s lots more reason to be relatively optimistic about getting everyone back to work starting soon.”

        I agree. But I’ve also noticed that there’s a battle between information sources, with people like Katz and Ioannidis (who, oddly, wasn’t heard from during the Stanford COVID conference even though he’s a world-famous physician from Stanford) on one side, talking reason and common sense; and Fauci, etc., on the other side, arguing that we’re going to see 150,000 dead in the US from COVID and that some NYC hospitals, like Elmhurst, are in crisis mode right now: two narratives. Not mutually exclusive narratives, but one is certainly alarmist and is being heavily supported by the media, with somewhat questionable tactics if they are indeed using photos from past disasters in lieu of accurate and honest information, or are even participating in staging events for dramatic effect (although no doubt with the good intention of properly scaring people to take this seriously.) I have a lot more questions than I have answers.

        So I certainly hope you’re right and we’ll get back to some semblance of normalcy soon, and I’m hoping that sanity and reason will prevail instead of hysteria. That’s what I’m voting for.

      • Don132 | April 3, 2020 at 11:26 am |

        The same scenario is in play here in the UK, it’s the usual dialectic.

        MG


  59. See? I’ve seen other videos of other hospitals; same thing.

    • They aren’t doing their usual business. They are treating cv patients, who tend to lay around in isolation, not going and coming via the front door, or by ambulance. In NYC, 500+ people are dying with cv daily. Stop with the conspiracy theory BS. It’s serious. No destructive undermining needed. It’s bad enough already.

  60. Uh oh. Thought police have arrived …

    MG

  61. from Don132: “I’ve gone over to the dark side. I now believe that this is a manufactured crisis. It’s like a bad flu, but that’s all. Spin is everything.”

    Yes, too many things are awry for this situation to be credible.

    1. Gov’t relying on a model not peer reviewed, and showing no interest in obtaining said peer review.
    2. Using covid test that has not been evaluated for accuracy (false-positives) and showing no interest in obtaining or showing said evaluation.
    3. Presenting data in the scariest way (plot of increasing #cases per day),
    and avoiding showing corresponding #tests per day…. which information would reveal that #cases per day is merely a function of #tests per day. So just keep ramping up the #tests per day to keep showing a scary increasing #cases per day. But this fake #cases curve will flatten only when the curve for #tests flattens.
    4. Giving the tests mainly to people who are sick and/or dying (possibly from other causes) and then counting their deaths as covid deaths without checking cause of death. This is contrary to standard procedure.
    5. Having a policy to allocate the tests to sick and dying, and not do the objective sampling needed to get good data for the model parameters… so the model can use bad parameter inputs to get scary projections, GIGO.

    The list could be longer.

    See org site:
    (sorry, can’t show link directly due to moderation block, twice now)
    Scroll to 2nd half, has good information about flat ratio of #cases/#tests (no spreading epidemic) and good explanation for why hospital collapse in Italy, mostly due to panic rather than covid (Eastern European caregivers fled back to home countries, leaving elderly unattended, hospital staff reduced due to quarantines and having to stay home with children not in school, etc.)

    • Well, here’s an interesting site: https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

      I’ve seen evidence that pictures of coffins have been lifted from elsewhere, and I haven’t verified them but there it is.

      But I ask, and what gets me thinking that maybe this is just hysteria run amok, or worse, is that what’s up with that Elmhurst thing, anyhow? Here’s what we’re told: NYC hospitals are being overrun with cases and especially Elmhurst hospital, which made the news with people lined up trying to get in and tents set up to handle the huge influx. What is this, a one-day pandemic? Because the next thing we know, there’s no one there. Not only that, but I’ve seen videos of people talking to ambulance drivers, peering into waiting rooms and … nothing. I mean, NOTHING. But supposedly we’re in pandemonium in NYC, as one would expect given how close people live and how absolutely sardine-packed-tight the subways were before the lockdown.

      And deaths, as you point out. How many people are dying who are counted as COVID deaths but should not be? Is this thing being artificially inflated?

      We know that about 50% of cases are asymptomatic. Wait a minute: you’re telling me that this is a terrible disease and is going to kill us all yet 50% of cases are asymptomatic? How many cases of the normal flu are asymptomatic?

      Fun facts: did you know the US DOJ was asking for emergency powers to jail people indefinitely? And that the same thing happened in Scotland? Why would they do that, before there’s any need whatsoever?

      • Don132

        In the Uk very recently it was decided that covid 19 should be made ‘notifiable’ so if the patient died WITH CV but not necessarily OF it that would be registered as a CV death even though there may have been numerous underlying conditions that were the real case of death.
        tonyb

    • You forgot to mention the black helicopters. No worries. Your tinfoil hats are in the mail.

      • Mark Gobell

        Don Monfort | April 2, 2020 at 10:53 pm | Reply

        You forgot to mention the black helicopters. No worries. Your tinfoil hats are in the mail.

        *

        Don Monfort

        Instead of choosing to showcase your well developed arrogant dissonance and abusing other posters, try behaving like an adult and deal with the information presented.

        Otherwise folk may consider you to be, well, just arrogant and abusive …

        MG

      • Don Monfort

        You get a pass. I don’t have the time or the inclination to slap down every clown that comes along. There are blogs for you wing nuts for you wing nuts to congregate and swap conspiracy theories. Google it.

      • Mark Gobell

        Don Monfort | April 3, 2020 at 4:09 am |

        You get a pass. I don’t have the time or the inclination to slap down every clown that comes along. There are blogs for you wing nuts for you wing nuts to congregate and swap conspiracy theories. Google it.

        *

        You’re a liar as well as an arrogant and abusive.

        Clearly you have the time Don Monfort, what you lack is the wit …

        Stop being a bully.

        Can you raise your game to that ?

        MG

      • Run along. This isn’t the time or place for conspiracy theories.

  62. “They aren’t doing their usual business. They are treating cv patients, who tend to lay around in isolation, not going and coming via the front door.”

    So then you didn’t see the mainstream videos from earlier, same entrance, showing crowds and pandemonium?

    Have a look at the four minute mark on this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kazYsjP-w-o
    This is mainstream news. Notice the crowds. Notice the fencing. Notice the tents. Notice the tree and the stripped material covering the slope around it. They’re telling us how it is, and this is what they’re showing us … right?

    Now go to the video I posted earlier, from some dude walking around on March 29. Go to about the 3 minute mark. See the tents? See the tree? See the fencing? See the striped material on the left as the guy walks past? See the people?? No, you don’t see the people. Notice the tents, Don.

    Yes, Don, it IS destructive undermining of the dominant narrative, because it just ain’t happening quite the way we’re being told. Now, you can make up all kinds of excuses– video is fake, a slow day, they changed entrances, whatever– but there are other videos showing the same thing at other hospitals: nothing. Ambulances parked. Waiting rooms virtually empty.

    I call ’em as I see ’em. What do you see? What do you make of it? Fake news? Conspiracy theory?

    Did you know that elements of mainstream media have been caught showing coffins lined up from COVID, when they were from some disaster in Italy in 2013, and not from 2020?

    Sooo …. what’s going on?

    • I shouldn’t do this but I will try to help you. Maybe I should say try to treat you. You are not well.

      A lot of people show up at the hospital with cold and flu symptoms. They are checked out and if they don’t have serious issues, like shortness of breath, they are told to go home and come back if they have shortness of breath-trouble breathing. Out of the flock of people you see out there 10% will be admitted to the hospital. They will be held in isolation and some in ICU, until they get better or die, which produces the bodies they are counting at about the rate of 500 per day. I posted a video here of Dr. David Price, Cornell Univ. Hosp. He explains it all very clearly. Watch the video and tell me if you think he is making it all up. Better yet, just go away.

      • You’re missing the point, Don. We’re in a crisis!! A crisis!! You can see for yourself on the news, and it’s so bad that it’s happening day after day in New York. A crisis!

        Did you see the pictures of the subway riders packed together? And how long have people been doing that before there was a shut-down? I lived there; I know exactly what it’s like, especially at rush hour. So this thing is spreading like wildfire in NYC, it has to be.

        So yes, you’re right and I’m wrong. There ARE hoards of New Yorkers at the hospitals, in lines waiting to get treated because this is a crisis– this is plain to see. It’s an emergency, and it’s only going to get much, much worse.

        I apologize. I have to get my mind right. Thank you for helping me.

        Never believe what your eyes tell you, because they’re liars. I keep forgetting. Thank you again; that was a close one.

  63. . . . testing, testing. Dn, I tried to reply but blocked.

    Also couldn’t send link to a reasonable explanation for why Italy hospitals collapsed, mainly due to panic rather than to actual covid. A lot of elderly people had caregivers, many from Eastern Europe, who fled leaving uncared elderly and sick. Then hospitals had reduced staff due to some staff having to quarantine and others having to stay home with children not in school or daycare.

  64. The curious thing is that anyone knowing even Statistics 101 could see that the number of cases is tightly correlated with number of tests…. and so the apparent increasing number cases shown on graph is largely (perhaps entirely) a function of the number of tests. This is easy to see. The epidemic is an artifact of the (planned?) ramping up of number tests per day. So why does no one see?

    Well, Richard Capek has plotted this correlation, for various countries, and I have tried to post but am blocked.

    • Do you mean “number of [confirmed] cases is tightly correlated with number of tests….”?

      Are the increasing deaths an artifact of the ramping up of the number of tests per day? Have the deaths been (planned?) to coincide with the (planned?) ramping up in tests? What is your point?

      The scope of the epidemic is unrelated to the number of tests. The epidemic is what it is, the tests just reveal a sampling of information on the scope of the thing.

      Try posting whatever it is you are trying to post without the links. Sometimes the links cause blocking. Do you think it’s being blocked to keep it quiet?

      • “Are the increasing deaths an artifact of the ramping up of the number of tests per day?”
        Yes. With positive test the deaths are simply called covid-19 deaths.

      • No. People don’t die, because they have been tested. They don’t die at an increasing rate, because the testing rate has been increased. Reported deaths of confirmed cases would be related to the increasing testing rate. How many newly reported deaths would have been missed, before expanded testing? How many deaths were recorded as due to cv, because the patients were not tested? It cuts goes both ways. We don’t know that it is not a wash. My guess is that when testing was more limited, the folks who eventually died were the ones who were most likely to have been tested.

        Do you think that the actual number of deaths from cv is influenced by testing? That the increase we are seeing is not because the disease is spreading, but it is an artifact of increased testing? I will help you: increased testing should reduce the actual death rate. Isn’t that why it’s important?

      • Mark

        I just posted here a few minutes ago that Covid 19 deaths are now ‘notifiable’ in the UK so if it was present it would be put on the Death certificate as a CV death even though it was the underlying conditions (9 out of 10 patients) that killed them. This seems to skew figures sharply as someone dying WITH CV is different to them dying OF it

        tonyb

      • Mark Gobell

        Don Monfort | April 3, 2020 at 12:34 pm |

        No. People don’t die, because they have been tested. They don’t die at an increasing rate, because the testing rate has been increased. Reported deaths of confirmed cases would be related to the increasing testing rate. How many newly reported deaths would have been missed, before expanded testing? How many deaths were recorded as due to cv, because the patients were not tested? It cuts goes both ways. We don’t know that it is not a wash. My guess is that when testing was more limited, the folks who eventually died were the ones who were most likely to have been tested.

        Do you think that the actual number of deaths from cv is influenced by testing? That the increase we are seeing is not because the disease is spreading, but it is an artifact of increased testing? I will help you: increased testing should reduce the actual death rate. Isn’t that why it’s important?

        *

        The number of “reported cv deaths” are absolutely influenced by testing.

        That’s the result of Covid-19 and SARS-COV-2 being notifiable and the WHO rules defining the application of their new cv mortality codes.

        You really should think twice before posting when you clearly have limited understanding of the subject at hand.

        MG

      • Don Monfort

        Comment is going into moderation. I will shorten it:

        Did you read what I said:Reported deaths of confirmed cases would be related to the increasing testing rate.

        I will move on from expanded testing. It’s a good thing. Not to be used to claim that the disease isn’t spreading.

      • Mark Gobell

        Don Monfort :

        You also wrote this :

        “The scope of the epidemic is unrelated to the number of tests. The epidemic is what it is, the tests just reveal a sampling of information on the scope of the thing.”

        and :

        “Reported deaths of confirmed cases would be related to the increasing testing rate. How many newly reported deaths would have been missed, before expanded testing? How many deaths were recorded as due to cv, because the patients were not tested? It cuts goes both ways.”

        Hence, my reply, you clearly are unaware of the rules & parameters governing the issues about which you post.

        The clue for you to address that deficit in your knowledge has already been posted.

        I notes that your invective has subsided somewhat.

        Good boy.

        MG

    • edimbukvarevic | April 3, 2020 at 2:27 am |

      “Are the increasing deaths an artifact of the ramping up of the number of tests per day?”
      Yes. With positive test the deaths are simply called covid-19 deaths.
      *
      According to the WHO’s new mortality codes for Covid-19, deaths with positive test are coded U07.1

      “Suspected” or “Probable” Covid-19 deaths without a test, are coded U07.2
      https://www.who.int/classifications/icd/covid19/en/

      Hence the pandemic of reporting “Covid-19 deaths” …

      MG

  65. Hi Don, I am guessing that the block occurs at the level of WordPress and is not Judith. Here is a try to convey the site access:
    (leave out all spaces):
    s w p r s . o r g / a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19 /

    This site was posted before but now has new material (text not video).
    This is a long read, but interesting. You could scroll down to about 3/4 through to end to read the Italy situation discussion and the material from Richard Capek with graphs showing level plot of cases / tests .

    • moderation and spam filters have been rather erratic

      • The conspiracy theory filter is not working. Please get it fixed. We are running out of tinfoil hats.

      • We shall be demanding a refund on our $1000 a month subscription to CE

        tonyb

      • The (other) Don says: “The conspiracy theory filter is not working. Please get it fixed. We are running out of tinfoil hats.”

        “Conspiracy theory” has a bad name.

        I don’t think anyone has said there’s any sort of conspiracy, but instead some of us are saying: look at the facts. What do you make of them? Because it is indeed true that the DOJ had asked for emergency powers to jail citizens.

        Norman L. Reimer, executive director of the National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers: “… you could be arrested and never brought before a judge until they decide that the emergency or the civil disobedience is over. I find it absolutely terrifying. Especially in a time of emergency, we should be very careful about granting new powers to the government.” https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/21/doj-coronavirus-emergency-powers-140023

  66. Tried again but this time post just disappeared, not even put into the mod queue. I will guess that this occurs at the level of WP software.

  67. Here is a quote from the April 2 report near the end of this document:

    USA: “Biophysicist Felix Scholkmann has visualized the fact that in the US (as in the rest of the world), it is not the number of „infected“ people that is increasing exponentially, but the number of tests. The number of „infected“ people in relation to the number of tests remains basically constant (oscillating between 10 and 20%), which speaks against a current viral epidemic.”

    So, now we need to see an evaluation for the accuracy of this covid test. What is the error rate for false-positives? Maybe 10%? And why is no one asking this question?

  68. I began this on the 3/29/2020 and that evening tests had shown an increase of 21,504. The high was 30,498 on the31st. The number I do not have is the total number of tests in the 24 hours, but I assume there was an increase. I selected 7:00 PM EDT for my data point. Watching it thru the day it really varies greatly as the new is added and the old is dropped.
    The important item here is that number is the number of infected individuals that went into self-quarantine. The tests will keep increasing. More individuals will self-quarantine. By Easter Sunday we will see how well THE AMERICAN PEOPLE did.
    It appears this is updated many times during the day.
    Yesterday they did not know, tomorrow they will!!
    Covid-19 cases daily change USA 7:00 PM EDT
    Date total cases % change
    3/28/2020 13813
    +22%
    3/29/2020 16826
    +28%
    3/30/2020 21504
    +41.8
    3/31/2020 30498
    -12.4
    4/1/2020 26690
    +.04%
    4/2/2020 26797

  69. Best timeline (from China) on Wuhan eruption: https://wuhanmemo.com/?page_id=230929

  70. So, when correctly graphed, the data actually show that there is NO increasing epidemic. The number of positive cases per 100 tests is not increasing at all over time. It is constant at about 5% to 15% depending upon which country’s data is shown. (However, a dishonest person can obtain an apparent increasing epidemic by graphing only the increasing #cases per day, without showing the increasing #tests per day.)

    So there is NO increasing epidemic.

    “Dr. Richard Capek and other researchers have already shown that the number of test-positive individuals in relation to the number of tests performed remains constant in all countries studied so far, which speaks against an exponential spread („epidemic“) of the virus and merely indicates an exponential increase in the number of tests.”

    There is NO increasing epidemic…. as shown by the data.

  71. My comment is blocked again, even with no link. So try changing one word:

    sciencereview18 | April 3, 2020 at 3:52 am | Reply
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    So, when correctly graphed, the data actually show that there is NO increasing epidemic.

    The number of positive cases per 100 tests is not increasing at all over time. It is constant at about 5% to 15% depending upon which country’s data is shown. (However, a clever person can obtain an apparent increasing epidemic by graphing only the increasing #cases per day, without showing the increasing #tests per day.)
    So there is NO increasing epidemic.

    “Dr. Richard Capek and other researchers have already shown that the number of test-positive individuals in relation to the number of tests performed remains constant in all countries studied so far, which speaks against an exponential spread („epidemic“) of the virus and merely indicates an exponential increase in the number of tests.”

    There is NO increasing epidemic…. as shown by the data.

  72. Inhibition of Viral Macrodomain of COVID-19 and Human TRPM2 by losartan

    https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202003.0457/v1

  73. The Molecular Story of COVID-19; NAD+ Depletion Addresses All Questions in this Infection

    https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202003.0346/v1

    Mention NAC, NAD+ and niacin, Vitamin, and losartan as possible candidates

  74. Breaking news.

    • Apparently a lot of these videos documenting deserted hospitals are done by Christian groups who believe this is part of, well, the end-times. I don’t subscribe to any of those beliefs, and I don’t know much about them, either. But, the videos are what they are, regardless of who is taking them, and regardless of what motivated these people to get up and get out there.

      Just thought I’d clear that up.

    • Efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients with COVID-19: results of a randomized clinical trial
      Studies have indicated that chloroquine (CQ) shows antagonism against COVID-19 in vitro. However, evidence regarding its effects in patients is limited. This study aims to evaluate the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in the treatment of patients with COVID-19. Main methods: From February 4 to February 28, 2020, 62 patients suffering from COVID-19 were diagnosed and admitted to Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University. All participants were randomized in a parallel-group trial, 31 patients were assigned to receive an additional 5-day HCQ (400 mg/d) treatment, Time to clinical recovery (TTCR), clinical characteristics, and radiological results were assessed at baseline and 5 days after treatment to evaluate the effect of HCQ. Key findings: For the 62 COVID-19 patients, 46.8% (29 of 62) were male and 53.2% (33 of 62) were female, the mean age was 44.7 (15.3) years. No difference in the age and sex distribution between the control group and the HCQ group. But for TTCR, the body temperature recovery time and the cough remission time were significantly shortened in the HCQ treatment group. Besides, a larger proportion of patients with improved pneumonia in the HCQ treatment group (80.6%, 25 of 32) compared with the control group (54.8%, 17 of 32). Notably, all 4 patients progressed to severe illness that occurred in the control group. However, there were 2 patients with mild adverse reactions in the HCQ treatment group. Significance: Among patients with COVID-19, the use of HCQ could significantly shorten TTCR and promote the absorption of pneumonia.

      • “Hydroxychloroquine has shown activity in vitro against many viruses, including influenza and coronaviruses, but that has largely failed to translate into success in either animals or humans.”

        https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanrhe/article/PIIS2665-9913(20)30089-8/fulltext

        Maybe useful for treatment after getting it but apparently not likely to be useful as preventive measure.

      • Aaron: Significance: Among patients with COVID-19, the use of HCQ could significantly shorten TTCR and promote the absorption of pneumonia.

        Unless there are unreported clinical trials that detected no benefit to HCQ (the usual “selection bias” in reporting the results of medical research), then that is the most support for HCQ yet reported. Here’s hoping for more.

        Thank you for the link.

  75. Is there a study that examines the potential global death toll resulting from another long-term depression?

    I doubt using the Great Depression as a model would be very useful because comps between population sizes and skillsets between the 1930’s and today are dramatically different; most jobs during the Great Depression era came from farming. While farming obviously couldn’t provide enough jobs to overcome the depression then, the scale of the industry as a job provider helped to buffer its severity because of the manpower required then to produce food.

    What happens in predominant service economies when large numbers of people are left with nothing if jobs go away? Most people globally don’t have basic hunter gatherer skillsets, not that this would help much with global population densities today. Ironically, in the poorest countries, the poorest of poor mostly grow their own food; they would probably be better off in depression circumstances than most 1st world nation populations by simply utilizing the skills they’ve acquired to survive every day.

    Pandemics aside; nations historically have been willing to gamble away hundreds of millions of mostly young lives to; either promote their respective visions for economical utopia; or to defend their respective systems of economics.

    The COVID-19 pandemic is both a global offensive war against, and a defense one against the virus. We have parameters (questionable ones) for the expectation of death tolls based on various scenario’s the experts provide.

    Here’s my question: if after enough manufacturing throughput is achieved for needed respirators/masks, etc., and also enough stockpile for all equipment to defend against the virus; wouldn’t it make more sense to allow everyone under 60 to go back to work? Those over 60 still work from home, or allow similar accommodations we’re currently using for this demographic. Maintain maintenance of best practices while working, let the chips fall as they may from there, economies survive, as do most people.

    The before is a decision between the lessor of evils, a smaller death toll from the virus, over a much larger one from global economic long-term depression. I use an off-the-cuff death toll model of 3rd world nations during famine conditions; i.e., 5% of Somalia’s population died from famine conditions between 2010-2010, there was little assistance, but there was some. There would probably be no assistance in global famine conditions.

    There’s a belief that 98% of the global population would survive COVID-19 after we have enough of the equipment needed to combat the virus, perhaps the death toll could a much less with the proper equipment at hand; 25% of people won’t ever know they ever had it unless they’re tested. Going back to work, global economies will survive, virus risks are shared individually. The before is more of a known quantity than rolling the dice towards what a global long-term depression would bring. What would the death toll be? Long-term staying at home simply isn’t an option, it buys time for preparing only, if used wisely.

    I suspect another Great Depression would bring much more death than the virus; someone better start cracking the numbers to illuminate choices.

  76. “Are the increasing deaths an artifact of the ramping up of the number of tests per day?”

    edimbukvarevic said ….
    Yes. With positive test the deaths are simply called covid-19 deaths.

    Yes, I agree.
    The reported death rate is inflated (is wrong) because it also is strongly influenced by ramping up the number of tests per day.

    The scary graph of #cases per day, and graph of #deaths per day, are both wrong and both biased by not reporting the #tests per day. It would be correct to show the two trends in percentages instead (… but that honest graph would completely undermine the narrative).

    The second scary graph (#deaths per day) has 3 causes of bias, while the first scary graph (#cases per day) has 1 cause of bias….. so it is easier to see the problem (of reporting a false biased scary increase in an epidemic) by looking at the #cases per 100 tests over time…. a percent that has remained fairly constant all along, indicating no actual spread.

  77. Dr. Fauci advising the nation and POTUS on January 21, that cv not a major threat, don’t worry about it

    Now he tells us we are all going to die if we don’t shut down the whole country.

    • Don

      He only says up to 2M might die

      • Don Monfort

        Yeah, I guess I owe him an apology.

      • jungletrunks

        “He only says up to 2M might die”

        How is the 2m number deaths relevant in a vacuum? When considering no other potential outcome is considered as a consequence of working towards a long-term cure; where in itself, other outcomes may be worse than the disease itself relative to death, as has been ascribed to the virus?

        What’s worse, 2m deaths, or near 20m dying from famine, or lateral causes from global economies collapsing? What’s the consequence of governments shutting down work indefinitely? Has anyone crunched the numbers of global depression, and the resultant famine? 20m deaths would represent near 5% of US population who are no longer allowed to work; 5% equats to 3rd world nation death examples from poverty, those dying from either famine only; but what about lateral consequences resultant from no work? The number would likely be higher yet, because 3rd world nations that suffer from famine have been conditioned for years to work through their bad situation. What about numbers of deaths beyond famine, for example a breakdown of healthcare in general, all other outcomes of death that dove-tail as a consequence to economic collapse? The latter isn’t considered as likely only because it hasn’t been experienced in modern developed societies, in other words, we take the good life for granted.

    • What is the full comment/question before the answer? It looks like a lot is chopped off and deceptively edited. It seems like he is answering about the danger of a single case in United States.

      • The Dobbs interview is on the same date as NewsMax interview.

      • Don Monfort

        Yeah, must be deceptively edited. You can tell by the way their lips are moving that they are saying something about the fishing in Canada. And from their suntans, you can tell that it’s Summer of 2018, not January 21, 2020. Are we good now, jimmy?

      • Good to know it was deceptively edited.

        January 21 turned out to be the date of the first identified case in the United States and Fauci is talking about not worry about this one case.

        A little over a week later the WH creates it CV Task Force which means that even they knew it was a serious problem.

        A shame they botched everything.

      • Don Monfort

        In the Dobbs video Dr. Fauci is just parroting the misinformation that Red China gave to the WHO and the WHO passed on to Fauci. Red China lied and a lot of people died.

        Fauci thought this was in the “spectrum” of SARS and MERS. Around 800 deaths worldwide, for each. The Red Chinese knew better and kept it quiet. They arrested, intimidated and disappeared local docs telling the truth about the epidemic. They are still doing that. They refused CDC and WHO help to keep the world in the dark:

        C.D.C. and W.H.O. Offers to Help China Have Been Ignored …www.nytimes.com › 2020/02/07 › health › cdc-coronavirus-china
        Feb 7, 2020 – In 2003, China was badly stung by criticism of its response to SARS, another coronavirus epidemic; it has also been embroiled in a trade war …

        WHO parroted Red Chinese misinformation:

        Dr. Fauci is the guy advising Trump and Trump gets blamed for alleged deficiencies in handling the medical problem. Called a racist xenophobe for ordering the travel ban. The lefty TDS crowd like jimmy give the Red Chinese the WHO and Dr. Fauci a pass. Having this turn out to be really bad and pinning the disaster on Trump is their last hope. Very pathetic.

      • Don Monfort

        You posted the video, jimmy. On the same day he told folks that it wasn’t a major threat and not to worry about it, he said this was in the “spectrum” of SARS and MERS. Around 800 deaths worldwide, for each. That confirms what he said on the video I posted. In other words, you folks have got about an 800 out of 7 billion chance of being killed by this virus. Run along, jimmy. You are in way over your head.

      • Donny, please apologize for that deceptive video you posted that omitted the context of Fauci’s answer.

      • What Fauci said was we didn’t know how bad it was going to be. It could be an epidemic. That’s the headline on the Dobbs post itself.

        His answer about it not being a threat had nothing to do with the threat of CV. It had to do with the threat of the one identified case.

        Please apologize for the deceptive posting that omits the context of the answer.

      • Don Monfort

        You provided the context for Fauci’s answer to the question with your video, jimmy. You shot yourself in your little foot. Everybody can see and hear what he said. He said it’s in the spectrum of SARS and MERS. 800 deaths each worldwide. Keep up the foolishness. You got plenty more more feet, you little centipede.

  78. Largest Statistically Significant Study by 6,200 Multi-Country Physicians on COVID-19 Uncovers Treatment Patterns and Puts Pandemic in Context

    Treatments & Efficacy

    -The three most commonly prescribed treatments amongst COVID-19 treaters are 56% analgesics, 41% Azithromycin, and 33% Hydroxychloroquine
    -Hydroxychloroquine usage amongst COVID-19 treaters is 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, 41% in Brazil, 39% in Mexico, 28% in France, 23% in the U.S., 17% in Germany, 16% in Canada, 13% in the UK and 7% in Japan
    -Hydroxychloroquine was overall chosen as the most effective therapy amongst COVID-19 treaters from a list of 15 options (37% of COVID-19 treaters)
    -75% in Spain, 53% Italy, 44% in China, 43% in Brazil, 29% in France,
    23% in the U.S. and 13% in the U.K.

    https://www.sermo.com/press-releases/largest-statistically-significant-study-by-6200-multi-country-physicians-on-covid-19-uncovers-treatment-patterns-and-puts-pandemic-in-context/

    • Matthew R Marler

      Don Monfort: Largest Statistically Significant Study by 6,200 Multi-Country Physicians on COVID-19 Uncovers Treatment Patterns and Puts Pandemic in Context

      The phrase “statistically significant” is not justified by any statistical analyses presented in the article. If usage of HCQ is 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, and 23% in the US, then its actual effectiveness is at best modest. The corresponding case fatality rates are about 9%, 12%, and 2.5% respectively. Usual caveats apply, but it takes a lot of assumptions about unknowns to turn these numbers into evidence of great effectiveness.

      • Don Monfort

        What the study reports is: Hydroxychloroquine was overall chosen as the most effective therapy amongst COVID-19 treaters from a list of 15 options (37% of COVID-19 treaters)

        The docs (37%) in a large sample of 6200 say it is their choice as the most effective therapy. Is that not statistically significant? It’s an opinion survey. The opinions of the docs presumably based on their personal experience and observations of others using the drugs in treatment of real patients. Maybe the death rates are higher in some countries because more docs aren’t using Hydroxychloroquine, or using it too late in the treatment protocol. Maybe some are giving patients too much and killing them. As you point out, there are caveats, unknowns etc.

        This to me looks like more evidence favoring the use of Hydroxychloroquine, in this emergency. That’s all.

    • On Fox News this morning thet were looking at those numbers and telling Fauci that some 70% of doctors in Spain”feel’ that hydroxy us the best treatment of treatments available.

      He explained to them how weak that is, scientifically. They looked shocked. I don’t think they understood what he was saying.

      • Don Monfort

        Those doctors use HDQ in treating real patients in need and they observe the results. It’s not a feeling. It’s observation. That’s science. What does Fauci know about treating cv patients? With the exception of a 2 year highly supervised stint as a lowly intern and resident, Fauci has been a government bureaucrat. What exactly has he got right about this episode?

      • stevenreincarnated

        On Fox news this morning Oz said China was using chloroquine as a prophylactic. I have no idea where he got this information from but he probably has more connections than I do and I’m curious if they are and if that is how they managed to get their CV problem under control.

      • Don Monfort

        I mentioned here several weeks ago I have been using chloroquine. Business associates in China told me about it in January. I had used it for about two years while in the Army. Seemed like a good idea to use it in this situation. CDC knew about this very likely before I did. Did nothing, until Trump got on their case. Trials are under way, but Fauci is still dragging his little feet.

      • stevenreincarnated

        I won’t be surprised if we not only knew about it but had good reason to believe it was effective for some time now and were keeping it out of public knowledge as well as possible. Fights over tp would pale in comparison.

      • That could be part of the reason that Fauci et al in the bureaucracy seem to be determined to play it down. But mostly I think it is just a knee-jerk resistance to anything that hasn’t gone through formal FDA approved double blind placebo controlled trials that cost a lot of money and take years.

    • Dr Fauci’s comments: “We’ve got to be careful that we don’t make that majestic leap to assume that this is a knockout drug. We still need to do the kinds of studies that definitely prove whether any intervention is truly safe and effective,” Fauci, who is also a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said during an interview on “Fox & Friends.”

      Fauci’s comments came in response to a question about a recent poll of more than 6,700 doctors in 30 countries, with 37 percent of physicians saying they “felt” that the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine was the most effective for treating COVID-19 as cases.

      “We don’t operate on how you feel, we operate on what evidence and data is,” Fauci said, adding that it was “not a very robust study” or “overwhelmingly strong.”

      • Don Monfort

        Dr, Fauci has been a big help.

      • Don Monfort

        From what I can make of Dr. Fauci’s biography, he practiced medicine from 1967-1968, as an intern and then resident. In other words, he was a rookie doctor under close supervision for a couple of years. Since then, he has been a government bureaucrat. He told us as recently as January 21, not to worry. He has been all over the place on projected cv infection and fatality rates. I am not impressed.

  79. What meant to say regarding 37% docs choosing HDQ as most effective therapy:”Is that not a significant statistic?”

    Another point of interest:
    -The three most commonly prescribed treatments amongst COVID-19 treaters are 56% analgesics, 41% Azithromycin, and 33% Hydroxychloroquine

    HDQ is the most prescribed anti-virus drug. The top two treatments are for treating collateral damage. They are not going to kill the virus.

    • Matthew R Marler

      Don Monfort: ”Is that not a significant statistic?”

      The phrase was “statistically significant”, unjustified in this case.

      • Don Monfort

        I know what you said:

        “The phrase “statistically significant” is not justified by any statistical analyses presented in the article. If usage of HCQ is 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, and 23% in the US, then its actual effectiveness is at best modest. The corresponding case fatality rates are about 9%, 12%, and 2.5% respectively. Usual caveats apply, but it takes a lot of assumptions about unknowns to turn these numbers into evidence of great effectiveness.”

        The study isn’t about evidence of actual effectiveness. As far as I can tell, they don’t make any claims about that. It’s about doctors’ preference of treatments and their opinions on the effectiveness of the treatments. Do you disagree with that?

        My corrected question was: “The docs (37%) in a large sample of 6200 say it is their choice as the most effective therapy. Is that not a significant statistic?”

        Please explain why the survey is not “statistically significant” in relation to the data they have collected. They queried 6200 docs. Did they do something wrong in the collection or reporting of the data? Or is “statistically significant” a term that I don’t understand in this context. It seems to me that the data tells us something significant and useful and it is not an invalid survey.

  80. It has been a long time since the last climate post, so here is my latest OT. Have a fun weekend. (Are we allowed to say that? I have not read the latest order.)

    Throwing cold water on hot climate models
    By David Wojick
    https://www.cfact.org/2020/04/03/throwing-cold-water-on-hot-climate-models/

    The only climate model that agrees with observations says there is NO climate emergency. Meanwhile half of the IPCC models are getting hotter than ever before, hence getting further from reality than ever before. A modeling showdown is looming and CLINTEL is a leader among the climate critics. They make a strong plea that in the current health emergency any climate action should be put on hold. “Why construct a false climate crisis on top of a true corona crisis?”

    My previous article — “CLINTEL Manifesto blasts climate scaremongering” — includes the all important graphic showing a dramatic divergence of the IPCC climate model predictions from the satellite temperature readings. The models are all running much hotter than reality. See https://www.cfact.org/2020/01/29/clintel-manifesto-blasts-climate-scaremongering/

    There is however one major model that agrees with the satellites, that being the Russian model. The reason is simple, yet profound. CLINTEL President professor Guus Berkhout explains it this way: “I have studied Russia’s climate model INM. Unlike IPCC’s models, the Russian INM model predictions fit the measurements remarkably well. A plausible explanation is that it uses a negative cloud feedback: –0.13 W/m2/degree C, while the IPCC models use a large positive cloud feedback: up to + 0.80 W/m2/degree C. This large positive cloud feedback is responsible for the catastrophic IPCC predictions.”

    The physics behind this explanation is pretty simple. Warming leads to more water vapor on the air, which causes increased cloudiness. Clouds can then either increase the warming (positive feedback) or decrease it (negative feedback). The scientific question is which occurs? The Russians are finding that it is a negative feedback. Measurements support them.

    CLINTEL is an international climate science advisor so it makes sense that they look closely at these findings. Their vision is: “Progress requires Freedom of Speech and Freedom of Scientific Inquiry.” In fact Professor Berkhout has been officially invited by the Russian Academy of Sciences to learn more about the INM model and to share the climate vision of CLINTEL.

    Unlike the U.S. and European modelers, the Russian modeling community has not been captured by the alarmists. This has given them the freedom to explore the negative feedback option, which the alarmists have refused to do, at least so far.

    But even within the alarmist community we see a promising development, as a big fight is shaping up over cloud feedbacks. The IPCC is in the process of writing the latest of its big Assessment Reports, which it does every five years or so, this being the sixth report (AR6). Most of the major alarmist climate models are run to feed into this report.

    This time we see that in AR6 about half of these models are running much hotter than they did for the fifth report (AR5). Although the review process is not yet finished, it appears that the AR6 modelers have juiced up the positive cloud feedback. We are not aware of any big new science to support this exaggeration. Has it been done to support the political push for radical zero-carbon laws? The hotter the model the worse the catastrophe it predicts from fossil fuel use, justifying a higher level of panic.

    A lot of people within the climate community are questioning this increased global warming in the AR6 model outputs. For one thing it suggests that at least half of the models are wrong, either the half that haven’t become hotter (predicting the same level of panic as in AR5) or the half that have (predicting a higher level of panic as in AR6). In the process the alarmist consensus is coming apart. How the IPCC will handle this schism remains to be seen.

    A higher positive cloud feedback may not solve all inconsistencies, but for sure we may state that it is a most unlikely assumption on the modeler’s part. No science compels this choice and measurements strongly advise against it. This opens the door for the empirically confirmed Russian findings, which call into question the entire catastrophe narrative of AR5 and even more AR6.

    Professor Berkhout puts it succinctly: “If the Russians are right, the carbon budget – being the amount of carbon mankind may emit before we reach the 1.5 and 2 degree C warming thresholds in The Paris Accord – is very, very large. In other words, there is no problem with continuing CO2 emissions until we have a technologically reliable and economically affordable alternative. Zero emission in 2050 is totally foolish. Looking at the the current health emergency it is a crime against humanity.”

    It is ironic, yet fitting, that the “blue sky” fantasy of climate alarmism may be brought back down to earth by clouds. Negative feedback is a truly positive message.

    Stay tuned to CFACT to see how this drama unfolds.

    Please share this article.

    Be well,

    David

  81. The lying talking heads on the View try to goad CA Gov. Newsom into bashing Trump on the cv response, like some other Dem Govs have. They get a shock:

  82. I began this on 3/29/2020 and that evening tests had shown an increase of 21,504. The high was 30,498 on the 31st. The number I do not have is the total number of tests in the 24 hours, but I assume there was an increase. I selected 7:00 PM EDT for my data point. Watching it thru the day it really varies greatly as the new is added and the old is dropped.
    The important item here is that number is the number of infected individuals that went into self-quarantine. The tests will keep increasing. More individuals will self-quarantine. By Easter Sunday we will see how well THE AMERICAN PEOPLE did.

    It appears this is updated many times during the day.
    Yesterday they did not know, tomorrow they will!!
    Covid-19 cases daily change USA 7:00 PM EDT
    Date total cases % change
    3/28/2020 13813
    +22%
    3/29/2020 16826
    +28%
    3/30/2020 21504
    +41.8
    3/31/2020 30498
    -12.4
    4/1/2020 26690
    +.04%
    4/2/2020 26797
    +35.3%
    4/3/2020 36272
    According to the above over the last 7 days 145603 individuals have showed positive to the test. They have been asked to self quarentine for 14 days and then be tested again. Over the next 14 days, I believe this will we have been on the downward slope for at least a week.

  83. World’s largest trial of potential coronavirus treatments rolled out across the UK
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/worlds-largest-trial-of-potential-coronavirus-treatments-rolled-out-across-the-uk?utm_source=060df4c2-ffc9-4719-923e-3eb4fe3a6da7

    The largest randomised clinical trial of potential coronavirus (COVID-19) treatments is underway as part of the race to find a treatment.
    Published 3 April 2020

    From: Department of Health and Social Care
    […]
    The trial is testing a number of medicines recommended by an expert panel advising the Chief Medical Officer for England. They include:

    Lopinavir-Ritonavir, commonly used to treat HIV
    Dexamethasone, a type of steroid use in a range of conditions to reduce inflammation
    Hydroxychloroquine, a treatment for malaria

    […]

    *

    MG

    • Mark Gobell: World’s largest trial of potential coronavirus treatments rolled out across the UK

      Thank you for the link.

      • more from the link: Notes to editor
        See full details on the trial
        Patients with COVID-19 are being offered the opportunity to participate in this trial. If they agree, they will be randomly allocated to standard of care alone, or standard of care plus 1 of 3 additional treatments
        The trial began on 19 March. It was set up in record time: first protocol to first patient in 9 days and 13 days to reach 500 patients. Within the first 2 weeks, nearly 1,000 patients have been enrolled
        The data will be analysed on a rolling basis so that any beneficial treatments can be identified as soon as possible. The faster that patients are recruited, the sooner the reliable results
        The other 2 key national trials are PRINCIPLE and REMAP-CAP
        Find out more about the NIHR’s national process to prioritise COVID-19 research. See details on the process and the new single point of entry for prioritising COVID-19 studies

        To me, this is good news.

      • some important details: Eligibility and randomisation: This protocol describes a randomised trial among adults hospitalised for confirmed COVID-19. Eligible patients are randomly allocated between several treatment arms, each to be given in addition to the usual standard of care in the participating hospital: No additional treatment vs Lopinavir-Ritonavir vs Interferon 1β vs Low-dose Corticosteroids vs Hydroxychloroquine. For patients for whom not all the trial arms are appropriate or at locations where not all are available, randomisation will be between fewer arms.

        Adaptive design: The interim trial results will be monitored by an independent Data Monitoring Committee (DMC). The most important task for the DMC will be to assess whether the randomised comparisons in the study have provided evidence on mortality that is strong enough (with a range of uncertainty around the results that is narrow enough) to affect national and global treatment strategies. In such a circumstance, the DMC will inform the Trial Steering Committee who will make the results available to the public and amend the trial arms accordingly.

  84. Can you comment on the link between Bill Gates Foundation donations to NIH? Fauci is member of NIH? Could that explain why they have same talking points?

  85. I don’t know if this has been mentioned here. Some of the intelligent Australians are reporting that a drug that has been safely given to millions of people to fight a widespread parasite disease is potentially effective against cv. Ivermectin. So far tested only in vitro.

    https://www.breitbart.com/border/2020/04/04/common-anti-parasite-drug-may-kill-coronavirus-in-under-48-hours-say-researchers/

  86. Don Monfort: Ivermectin. So far tested only in vitro.

    Thank you for the link.

  87. Covid-19 cases daily change USA 7:00 PM EDT
    Date total cases % change
    3/29/2020 16826
    +28%
    3/30/2020 21504
    +41.8
    3/31/2020 30498
    -12.4
    4/1/2020 26690
    +.04%
    4/2/2020 26797
    +35.3%
    4/3/2020 36272
    -10.5%
    4/4/2020 32428
    -14.5%
    4/5/20 20 27725
    LOOKING BETTER. I think we are closer than the President and the 2 doctors think.

  88. Damning timeline on the Trump response.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/06/trump-versus-biden-coronavirus-timeline-is-utterly-damning/

    Biden in late January saying we are unprepared for pandemic while Trump saying we have it under control.

    • James

      Being a Brit I have no say and little interest in the jockeying for position of the democrat rivals. This was however one of the most shockingly partisan pieces I have read in any major newspaper.

      Presumably the Post and the journalist are key planks in the Democrat party? Again, looking from this side of the pond, if Biden is the best that the sophisticated and rich American electoral system can put forward then the West and your closest allies are in serious trouble

      tonyb

      • tony,
        We have a lot of people here who are rooting for the virus to take out POTUS Trump. I am pretty sure it is going to backfire on the little varmints. They are building this up as a great catastrophe of Trump’s making, but they are going to be disappointed in the fatality toll.

        I don’t read the wapo, but I assume they didn’t mention that in January Biden along with every other Democrat stooge railed against the POTUS Red China travel ban calling Trump racist, xenophobe, whatever. Recently he changed his mind and said the travel ban was good. Next day he said it wasn’t done soon enough. He is not necessarily flip-flopping, tony. He just can’t remember what he says from one minute to the next. Can you imagine the campaign ads they are going to run against that clown, tony?

      • Tony

        This is an OpEd and they are usually partisan. The Post also prints columnists very favorable to Trump. Here is one as an example.

        https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/31/we-finally-have-sustainable-coronavirus-strategy-trump-has-been-demanding/

        They also print columnists who used to be very conservative and pro-Republican like Jennifer Rubin who are no longer so:

        https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/06/biden-trump-heres-how-act-like-president/

        But the timeline in this OpEd is purely a recitation of actual facts.

      • Just a brief comment about the “rich electoral system”.

        It is fundamentally an anti-democratic (little “d”) system. It, along with the Senate, was put in the Constitution specifically to prevent full democracy.

    • donnny,

      Weren’t you the one saying the death toll would be 5,000?

      I think we’re about at 10,000 now. Care to revise your estimate?

      • Don Monfort

        I did revise my estimate, jimmy. One time. The Fauci led team has been all over the place up in the millions at one point, so I am not ashamed. Last time I paid any attention to those clowns they said 50,000 were going to expire in April. I said the number will be closer to 5,000. According to eminent K-Pop scientist S. Mosher, that would be under 31,000, if my memory is correct. I can live with that. If I am wrong, it won’t be by much. You all can keep up your unseemly cheering for the virus, but you varmints are just shooting yourselves in your little feet.

      • Will you live (with that)?

        I’m old enough to be the vulnerable group and I imagine, but don’t know, you are too. Aside from that, some people, even young and healthy, seem to be severely affected.

        I think the best estimates are about 81,000 now.

        https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

        Plus an economic depression, probably the complete collapse of rural health care, and one of the largest deficits in our history coming at a time of aging population.

        I don’t think any President could have avoided some major impact but I wonder how you would be reacting if the problems were half as bad and a Democrat was President. I could be somewhat charitable if Trump would just quit trying to lead and get out of the way of the experts.

      • Matthew R Marler

        James Cross: donnny,

        Weren’t you the one saying the death toll would be 5,000?

        What Don Monfort wrote was that the death toll for April would be closer to 5,000 than 50,000. Steve Mosher followed that with a calculation. I doubted DM, but his assessment does not look so bad now. I’ll put up some numbers later.

      • It’s over 6,000 in April and we are just at the 6th and the bulk of the deaths in the projection I linked to come in April.

      • Don Monfort

        jimmy says:”I’m old enough to be the vulnerable group and I imagine, but don’t know, you are too.”

        Probably still has his Viet Cong flag and Ho Chi Minh sandals from the 60’s.

      • The numbers are tracking for a doubling in 8.8 days. It was 7 a two days ago. What a dithering trumpanzee he is.

      • Don Monfort

        We don’t care because it’s Hillary voting zipcodes that are getting wiped out. Didn’t you notice that, bobbie? Surprised why the TDS suffering _________haven’t played that card. Probably because they would have to admit those areas are all run very badly, even in the best of times, by perpetually in power Democrats. November 3, bobbie. Hey, if the dims get their way, you can vote by mail from oz, postage paid.

      • It’s OK because half the cases are in areas people actually want to go to? Yep it’s monkey see monkey do monkeyshines all the way down while the donald fiddles with himself.

        The only politician Trump could beat was Hillary. The only way he can win the next election is to call it off on account of covid19.

      • Don Monfort

        You are clueless , bobbie. Think the job of managing this crisis is easy? Are they doing this in South Korea? Are your folks down there having coronavirus parties?:

        This is E. Liberty and Walnut in Cincinnati. I lived 5 blocks from here with my aunt for a year when I was getting into too much trouble in Detroit. It was like a vacation in the country. Now, not so good.

      • Don Monfort

        Well, that went to moderation. I’ll try this one that has a link to the video on youtube. Do you have this going on down there, bobbie?

        https://www.wcpo.com/news/coronavirus/cpd-is-monitoring-social-media-after-video-of-large-gathering-circulates-online

      • Try again to put it in the right place.

        I can’t imagine what poor, poor Donnie thinks he is saying with this. Donnie has a habit of turning everything into a TDS* pissing contest. It’s the limit of his intellectual capacities – a frankfurter short of a hotdog.

        I am pro markets, small government and personal freedom – not some pissant progressive snowflake. The leaders needed at this time in particular are empathetic, humble, forthright, accountable, resilient and smart. Trump is none of these things – he is not a leader for the times – but he is the one you deserve.

        * I had to look up urban dictionary – https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=TDS

      • Robert I Ellison: The numbers are tracking for a doubling in 8.8 days. It was 7 a two days ago. What a dithering trumpanzee he is.

        To whom are you referring?

        The doubling time (of the death count) was 2.5 days a week ago. Will it continue to lengthen? If so at what rate? We’ll have to wait and see.

    • Yes, just blew through 10,000 – 10,327 and even Trump is saying the next week will be the worse.

      • Don Monfort

        If he said he was optimistic, you TDS ghouls would be lambasting him about alleged “false hopes.” He is and has been essentially following the advice of the morons, who are using the BS modeling. They keep revising the reported modeling numbers:

      • Don Monfort

        Went to moderation
        If he said he was optimistic, you ________________ would be lambasting him about alleged “false hopes.” He is and has been essentially following the advice of the ______, who are using the __ modeling. They keep revising the reported modeling numbers:

      • Don Monfort

        There must be an algorithm that changes the projections, as soon as they are proved wrong:
        https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

      • The projections are updated daily based on new information.

        The degree to which projections become true can be affected by what we do. If we take the right actions, fewer deaths.

        Much like climate change.

      • Don Monfort

        Do you actually know the timing and the magnitude of the changes? Don’t bother with the details. Just wave your arms. You are inutil.

      • What difference does the magnitude and timing make? I know total deaths through August were around 93K a few days ago on the projections and now they are 81K.

        But that is probably thanks to most of the states ignoring Trump and issuing stay at home orders which is slowing the spread.

        Still this is a dynamic situation where what people do make a difference. The early projections came from what was happening before a lot of action was taken. Now that actions are having an effect the numbers are coming down. That’s all good.

        It’s just a shame that we didn’t use the 70 days from the time intelligence told us we were going to have a big problem to build up stocks of ventilators and protective equipment instead of doing happy talk about it was all going to go away in April.

      • Don Monfort

        Details matter, jimmy. You don’t know what you are talking about. Everybody knows the models are junk, but some have a need to pretend otherwise. You are one of them. Get back to us on November 3.

        How many people are we losing because we don’t have enough ventilators? According to the Gov. of New York, where most of the carnage is happening, they are still hoarding a lot of ventilators shipped in by the feds. You must be talking about the ventilators needed based on the horrendously wrong model projections. Where are your stats on the actual magnitude of the PPE shortage? Do you think people treating CV patients are doing so without the gear? Where dey at, how many?

        Go on with your TDS inspired attempts to undermine confidence in the efforts to squash this thing. There are a lot of you subversive __________, but many more on the side of truth, justice, and the American way. November 3, will put you all in well-deserved misery.

      • Don Monfort

        Little jimmy is still looking. Here is some help:

        Today:“There is no hospital that needs ventilators that doesn’t have ventilators, there is no hospital that needs PPE (personal protective equipment) that doesn’t have it in the state system,” Cuomo said.

        No shortages in the disaster area, where the need is greatest.

      • Findings at a Glance:

        Hospital Challenges Severe Shortages of Testing Supplies and Extended Waits for Results Hospitals reported that severe shortages of testing supplies and extended waits for test results hospitals’limited ability to monitor the health of patients and staff. Hospitals reported that they were unable to keep up with COVID 19 testing demands beca use they lacked complete kits and/or the individual components and supplies needed to complete tests. Additionally, hospitals reported frequently waiting 7 days or longer for test results. When patient stays were extended while awaiting test results, thi s strained bed availability , personal protective equipment (PPE) supplies, and staffing.

        Widespread Shortages of PPE Hospitals reported that widespread shortages of PPE put staff and patients at risk. Hospitals reported that heavier use of PPE than normal was contributing to the shortage and that the lack of a robust supply chain was delaying or preventing them from restocking PPE needed to protect staff. Hospitals als o expressed uncertainty about availability of PPE from Federal and State sources and noted sharp increases in prices for PPE from some vendors.

        Difficulty Maintaining Adequate Staffing and Supporting Staff Hospitals reported that they were not always abl e to maintain adequate staffing levels or offer staff adequate support. Hospitals reported a shortage of specialized providers needed to meet the anticipated patient surge and raised concerns that staff exposure to the virus may exacerbate staffing shorta ges and overwork. Hospital administrators also expressed concern that fear and uncertainty were taking an emotional toll on staff, both professionally and personally.

        Difficulty Maintaining and Expanding Hospital Capacity to Treat Patients Capacity concerns emerged as hospitals anticipated being overwhelmed if they experienced a surge of patients, who may require special beds and rooms to treat and contain infection. Many hospitals reported that postacutecare facilities were requiring neg ative COVID19 tests before accepting patients discharged from hospitals, meaning that some patients who no longer required acute care were taking up valuable bed space while waiting to be discharged.

        Shortages of Critical Supplies, Materials, and Logistic Support Hospitals reported that shortages of critical supplies, materials, and logistic support that accompany more beds affected hospitals’ ability to care for patients. Hospitals reported needing items that support a patient room, such as intr avenous therapy (IV) poles, medical gas, linens, toilet paper, and food. Others reported shortages of notouch infrared thermometers, disinfectants, and cleaning supplies. Isolated and smaller hospitals faced special challenges maintaining the supplies t and restocking quickly when they r a n out of supplies.

        Anticipated Shortages of Ventilators Anticipated shortages of ventilators were identified as a big challenge for reported an uncertain supply of standard, fullhospitals. Hospitals feature ventilators and in some cases used alternatives to support patients, including adapting anesthesia machines and using singleuse emergency transport ventilators. Hospitals antici pated that ventilator shortages would pose difficult decisions about ethical allocation and liability, although at the time of our survey no hospital reported limiting ventilator use. I

        ncreased Costs and Decreased Revenue Hospitals described increasing costs and decreasing revenues as a threat to their financial viability. Hospitals reported that ceasing elective procedures and other services decreased revenues at the same time that their costs have increased as they prepare for a potential s urge of patients. Many hospitals reported that their cash reserves were quickly depleting, which could disrupt ongoing hospital operations.

        Changing and Sometimes Inconsistent Guidance Hospitals reported that changing and sometimes inconsistent guidance from Federal, State, and local authorities posed challenges and confused hospitals and the public. Hospitals reported that it was sometimes difficult to remain current with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidance and that they received conflicting guidance from different government and medical authorities, including criteria for testing, determining which elective procedures to delay, use of PPE, and getting supplies from the national stockpile. Hospitals also reported concerns that pub lic misinformation has increased hospital workloads (e.g., patients showing up unnecessarily, hospitals needing to do public education) at a critical time. oig.hhs.gov/oei/reports/oei–.asp Full report: 06 20 00300

        oig.hhs.gov/oei/reports/oei–.asp hey need ed Full report: 06 20 00300

  89. Please watch.

  90. They are including in the toll patients, who have not been confirmed with COVID-19:

    “If the death certificate reports terms such as “probable COVID-19” or “likely COVID-19,” these terms would be assigned the new ICD code. It is not likely that NCHS will follow up on these cases.”

    Click to access Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

    • Thank you Don Monfort for the CD link.

      Click to access Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

      The PDF details the method by which the CDC / NVSS have implemented the two new Covid-19 mortality codes U07.1 and U07.2 issued by the WHO.
      https://www.who.int/classifications/icd/covid19/en/

      See WHO PDF : More information on coding COVID-19 in ICD-10
      pdf, 194kb

      Click to access COVID-19-coding-icd10.pdf

      According to the WHO’s new mortality codes for Covid-19, deaths with positive test should be coded U07.1

      “Suspected” or “Probable” Covid-19 deaths without a test, are coded U07.2

      Hence the pandemic of reporting “Covid-19 deaths” …

      https://judithcurry.com/2020/03/30/cov-discussion-thread-ii/#comment-913084
      *

      The CDC / NVSS have gone beyond the WHO specification by stating ;

      “The WHO has provided a second code, U07.2, for clinical or epidemiological diagnosis of COVID-19 where a laboratory confirmation is inconclusive or not available. Because laboratory test results are not typically reported on death certificates in the U.S., NCHS is not planning to implement U07.2 for mortality statistics. ”

      and :

      “Will COVID-19 be the underlying cause?

      The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate. However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not.”

      *

      So, in the US there will be no mortality coding using the WHO’s U07.2 code for deaths where Covid-19 is “Suspected” or “Probable” and either untested or test are inconclusive.

      All U.S. Covid-19 mortality will be coded as U07.1, which according to the WHO specification should only be used for “Tested Positive” “Confirmed Cases” where “COVID-19 documented as cause of death.”

      Hence the pandemic of reporting “Covid-19 deaths” …

      MG

      • to Mark Gobell:
        Thank you for your post with good info about coding for covid deaths.

        Here is link to a very interesting graph of flu deaths for past five years as compared to flu deaths for this season…which are MUCH lower.
        Some of the difference may be due to social distancing (after January) but the graph’s weirdness is starting long before then.
        I wonder whether the usual flu deaths are just being coded as Covid deaths instead, and maybe that’s why the flu deaths look so much lower this year?

        https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUyBMdvWAAEZAwX?format=jpg

    • That study was done on the fly, not designed or expected to pass peer-review. We are in a war, dummy. There are multiple trials underway, a plurality of doctors are choosing HDQ as their first-line treatment and as we read your trash today HDQ may be bending the curve down in NYC. HDQ being “flooded into the hot zone”. That’s how men of action do it in a war, blabbermouth.

      https://video.foxnews.com/v/6147392023001#sp=show-clips

      • Mark Gobell

        Don Monfort : “That’s how men of action do it in a war, blabbermouth.”

        I think I just wet myself …

        MG

      • Don Monfort

        I often have that effect on people. In the case of JCH, he should start wearing his brown pants. There’s a joke about that: Rommel and the Italian General. If you people ask me nicely, I’ll tell it some time.

    • JCH: Hydroxychloroquine-COVID-19 study did not meet publishing society’s “expected standard”

      Thank you for the link.

      Problems with the study were referref to at Climate Etc. a few days ago. Net result, it supplied no useful information.

      • Don Monfort

        A lot of doctors are using the HDQ as their first line treatment based on an accumulation of similar “useless” information. Our FDA and authorities of other governments have apparently relied on this type of information to approve and in some cases encourage the use of HDQ for covid 19. Several clinical trials have been prompted and started as a result of this information. Why do you think it is useless? Would you want HDQ if you got sick?

      • The lawyers of the globe are going to have a $field day:

      • stevenreincarnated

        It isn’t enough that it didn’t work. They’d have to show it did harm.

      • Don Monfort

        Has that already passed peer review, JCH? Link to medical journal please.

        We haven’t seen such a vendetta by you and your ilk against any of the other hopefully effective but untested and unapproved treatments being tried against CV 19. Is that because the Big Orange Fella mentioned this one?

        There is at least one unhinged Democrat pol nominating Trump to be investigated by the Hague Court for mentioning he is hopeful a promising treatment against a deadly world pandemic virus might be of significant value. You people are not helping.

      • This is going to make the covid 19 cheerleaders unhappy:

  91. Covid-19 cases daily change USA 7:00 PM EDT
    Date total cases % change
    3/31/2020 30498
    -12.4
    4/1/2020 26690
    +.04%
    4/2/2020 26797
    +35.3%
    4/3/2020 36272
    -10.5%
    4/4/2020 32428
    -14.5%
    4/5/2020 27725
    +o.8%
    4/6/200 27948
    The President said they are doing over 100,000 tests per day and with the new test the results are reported the same day the sample is taken, thus the daily results are more accurate.
    The above will now be the last 7 days. In the last 7 days the testers have asked 177,860 to self isolate.

    • The number of tests done daily is increasing rapidly. The positive may have been infected as much as 2 weeks earlier if we assume it takes that long for a mild case to cure its’ self. The bottom number is the one that counts.

    • That’s interesting. Mostly the comments:

      Ben Caxton says:
      6 April, 2020 at 7:22 pm
      Uncontrolled studies are of little value.
      An uncontrolled study of 11 “consecutive” is even less likely to offer evidence in any direction.
      This blog article is baseless according to it’s own criteria.
      No useful information at all, but has a great clickbait headline.
      I want my 20 mins back.

      Super Genius says:
      6 April, 2020 at 9:23 pm
      There is now widespread reported use of some combination of HCQ, azithromycin, and zinc (no doubt with other medications as well). Many of these have shown encouraging results. One may still be hesitant to credit these as a breakthrough, but I ask you – where are the reports of widespread harm and death? Of any harm or death due to this treatment? The number of patients having received some form of this treatment is certainly well into the thousands.

      And it’s not like there’s no scientific basis for considering HCQ (and Chloroquine) as a treatment. In 2005 several CDC (!) researchers published a study in Virology Journal titled ‘Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread.’ (SARS being a similar virus to Covid19.)

      • Don Monfort: The number of patients having received some form of this treatment is certainly well into the thousands.

        If it works, the NYC surge is over.

      • Matthew and Don

        You may be interested in this. I had written a similar article carried elsewhere, but this one expands on my comments

        https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/05/covid19-death-figures-a-substantial-over-estimate/

        The comments veer into conspiracy theory whereas I tend to attribute most things to the cock up theory of govt, often generously garnished with incompetence and lack of strategic thinking, fear of the media and a desire to be re-elected

        tonyb

      • Don Monfort

        Matt
        Governor Cuomo asked the feds for more HDQ today. Said there is anecdotal evidence from clinicians using it widely in NY that it is effective. Body language to me looks like he is guardedly optimistic.

        According to TV doc Dr. Oz, I was surprised to learn he is also active clinically, he had a study underway based at NY Presbyterian hospital for early use in outpatients that was ended by Cuomo for some vague reason. Maybe supply. Maybe didn’t want outpatients treated. My guess is that so far they have been using it in patients, who are already in bad shape. Hope that they are or will be soon also be trying it in patients less burdened with virus. My theory is that once pneumonia sets in the game is just about lost. The virus doesn’t kill people it’s the cytokine storm-fluid buildup.

        Dr. Oz also talks about discussions and projects with the Dr. Pres. of the Lupus Society, who has 800 lupus patients on HDQ and none of them the Dr. knows about have had the covid 19. Oz says they have a project underway reviewing millions of records of HDQ users. What stevereinc. talked about here. Also Oz says he in touch with the French doc and he has 1000 patient study he will release soon. Here is the vid. Interesting. You could skip the first 3 min and not miss much:

      • Don Monfort

        Thanks, tony
        I posted above the guidelines for U.S. death certification above a little ways. Similar BS that will result in a lot of over counting. Maybe when the hysteria dies down we will get a more rational assessment.

        I am getting a feeling that we are doing better here, tony. How is it going in the old country? I will have another drink, to Her Majesty and homeland and take a little nap. I try to keep the same schedule as The Big Orange Fella. Wake up everybody, no more sleeping in bed, time for thinking ahead:

      • That’s ok, the name is a play on a cross between one of my favorite TV shows growing up as a child, The Cisco Kid, and the village of my postal address, Ceresco. Great time to watch cowboy shows in the early 1950s. Got to meet in person Wild Bill Hickok and Jingles at the Kello—ggs factory in Battle Creek. Thinking back, it’s amazing how many cowboy shows were on TV during that period.

      • jungletrunks

        cerescokid, I know why I referred to you as Cisco earlier. Every time I see your pseudo, echos of War run through my head. I won’t elaborate because those old enough may then be haunted by certain riffs every time they see your posts :)

      • Don Monfort: Governor Cuomo asked the feds for more HDQ today. Said there is anecdotal evidence from clinicians using it widely in NY that it is effective. Body language to me looks like he is guardedly optimistic.

        I am guardedly optimistic, probably more toward the guardedly end than Gov Cuomo.

        Problems with the drug, and why it probably does not behave in the body that has been damaged by SARS CoV-2 same as it does in bodies without I have written about already, and they are real problems. Adaptive clinical
        trials have been underway for a while.

        If I were in a hospital with COVID-19, and a Dr or research associate asked asked me whether I wanted HCQ for sure or wanted to participate in a clinical trial where I would be randomize to drug or control and not know which I had received until after the study was complete, I would enroll in the clinical trial.

      • Matt:”Problems with the drug, and why it probably does not behave in the body that has been damaged by SARS CoV-2 same as it does in bodies without I have written about already, and they are real problems. Adaptive clinical trials have been underway for a while.”

        I don’t recall seeing that. Do you think there is a risk in treating COVID 19 patients that is greater than the apparently low risk in treatment and prophylaxis for malaria, or treatment for lupus and RA? Any treatment for a COVID 19 treatment might have risks particularly associated with treating somebody who is already messed up pretty good CV. What are the real problems with HDQ? It seems to me that the many doctors who are using it as a first line treatment would be aware of these problems.

        Dr. Oz reported today that the project he is working on to review lupus patients for incidence of CV19 has so far examined 14000 records without turning up any CV19 infected patients. I don’t know how accurate the analysis is, but so far it’s zero. That’s pretty low, even if not entirely thorough and accurate. Doctor who is Pres. of Lupus Society says he has 800 patients and as far as he can determine zero again. One would think that the Lupus Society and lupus docs would know of patients with CV.

        I am already taking HDQ and zinc, so I am not worried about catching malaria, or the CV.

        This pulmonologist is in the front lines, very smart and good explainer. He is up to 51 videos on the COVID. I watched all of them. Here he explains the working of HDQ against the virus, in detail:

    • This comment is interesting and not useless information. The American Thoracic Society believes that docs around the world treating covid patients with HDQ just might know what they are doing:

      Tom Boyer says:
      6 April, 2020 at 2:10 pm
      American Thoracic Society has just released paper “suggesting” chloroquine for hospitalized patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis and evidence of pneumonia. Citing paucity of evidence but saying they reached this conclusion after discussions with doctors around the world treating these cases.

      Is this the dam breaking? And how bad will the drug shortages be and soon can enough supply be manufactured?

      Click to access covid-19-guidance.pdf

      • If anybody bothers to read RESULTS: on page 2 find that after their review the clinicians made no suggestions for or against the other commonly used drugs in the treatments of covid.

      • Don

        I suspect that Donald Trump wants to use Boris as a guinea pig

        https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-offers-help-to-treat-boris-johnson-in-hospital/

        The treatment he seems to be suggesting seems to chime with your posts about chloroquine

        tonyb

      • Don Monfort

        Boris will make a good guinea pig. Hope it works. I wonder if we will bill for it.

      • Don Monfort

        I was going to wake up my wife and ask her to clarify something for me, but decided against it. She mentioned earlier that Trump was sending over a bunch of people from Genentech, Gilead and a couple others of our drug developers to try a bunch of things out on old Boris. That Donald. He doesn’t half-step.

      • Don

        I think it would be fair to say that we are very concerned about Boris. He is very sick. The trouble is that he has led from the front for weeks and also of course during the recent general election and Brexit. He must be physically exhausted and his immune system very compromised. I suspect he will need to go on a ventilator with all that implies.

        tonyb

      • One of our Democratic legislators used it and recovered quickly. She was quite public about the benefit.

      • jungletrunks

        Using Boris as a guinea pig may be ascribing a bit too strong a description for Trump’s motivation, he has a deep affection for Boris. BTW, just heard Boris is in stable condition, though still in ICU. But I agree Tony, his system must be severely compromised from the stresses he has surely been effected by.

        It’s hard to argue with Trump’s reasoning for using hydroxychloroquine more robustly; while there are unique precautions for using the drug on certain individuals, it otherwise should be liberally prescribed to COVID-19 patients who are not at risk from its side effects. The safety profile of the drug is good, as a matter of record; and as Trump says, what’s there to lose? There’s everything to gain if it works as the anecdotal evidence suggests.

      • Jungle trunks

        By guinea pig I more meant something that has not passed the peer review of senior doctors to treat this sort of condition. I am sure they will want to try all sorts of conventional means first.

        It appears Boris might have been affected by Prince Charles or by Mr Barnier the EU Brexit negotiator or by 2 others. In this respect Trump is in contact with lots of different sorts of people who may be infected and as he is in a high category risk he must do all he can to keep well.

        tonyb

      • I see parallels between this debate of having only “anecdotal” evidence for this drug versus “scientific” evidence needed by the medical community, with the debate about tony’s work and evidence being only “anecdotal” and not meeting standards for being “scientific” enough.

        SM whines that what tony has done just doesn’t rise to the level that the establishment has deemed worthy of being science. They seem to ignore massive gaps in their data both spatially and temporally over the last 200 years.

        At what point in both of these areas do the anecdotes become so voluminous, having reached critical mass, that they deserve the imprimatur of being science?

      • jungletrunks

        I agree, Cisco, but within the scope of an emergency situation, after analyzing the big picture of costs and risks, which for hydroxychloroquine is on the low end, then all other arguments become less a priority. The science for this drug should continue, but it should also continue to be exploited “like a solution” based on anecdotal efficacy; used responsibly under a doctors supervision in consideration of their patients underlying conditions.

        When do “they deserve the imprimatur of being science?”. Humanity has historically exploited many things that we don’t understand the underlying science to, but we exploit self evident benefits regardless. Asprin was given the imprimatur of science “after” many decades of being sold as an over the counter drug. Granted, this is not advised, and dangerous; this can’t happen today. But a long safety profile of hydroxychloroquine is on the record, if used responsibly under a doctors supervision, that’s the size of it.

      • jungletrunks

        lol, I mean cerescokid, not sure how it came out cisco

  92. New Zealand’s elimination strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic and what is required to make it work | OPEN ACCESS

    New Zealand:

    …This elimination strategy is a major departure from pandemic influenza mitigation. With the mitigation strategy, the response is increased as the pandemic progresses and more demanding interventions such as school closures are introduced later to ‘flatten the curve.’ Elimination partly reverses the order by introducing strong measures at the start in an effort to prevent introduction and local transmission of an exotic pathogen such as COVID-19. This approach has a strong focus on border control, which is obviously easier to apply for island states. It also emphasises case isolation and quarantine of contacts to ‘stamp out’ chains of transmission. If these measures fail and there is evidence of community transmission, it then requires a major response (physical distancing, travel restrictions and potentially mass quarantines or ‘lockdowns’) to extinguish chains of transmission. …

  93. Graph of Flu Deaths . . . showing MUCH lower this season:

    This graph compares the flu death curves for past years, 2014-2018, with flu curve for this season… which is MUCH lower. With much lower flu deaths, one might expect that the medical resources, ventilators etc., usually used for flu would then be freed up to use for Covid people. So there should not be an excess demand for ventilators this year. Btw, ventilators are very dangerous (infection risk), with over 80% death rate for people on ventilators for past years.

    Anyway, for this interesting graph, part of the reason for amazing lower flu death rate this year may be because some flu deaths (those who tested positive for Covid) are being recorded as Covid deaths by mistake.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUyBMdvWAAEZAwX?format=jpg

    • As you know, in the UK, Italy and Spain anyone who dies in hospital and tests positive for covid 19 the cause of death is listed as that disease even though they died with cv and not of it.

      I think the low rate of flu is die to the mild winter and that the vulnerable have been sheltering from covid 19 since end January or earlier so have not caught flu.

      tonyb

    • Seems rather obvious that the steep drop in week8-9 is due to those deaths being attributed to covid. If we have a plane crash:

      Airliner Crash Near Azores 144 Die COVID-19

    • New model projection number for covid 19 fatalities is down from the original projected gazillion to 81,000:

      https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/virus-model-shows-social-distancing-helps-flatten-curve/2216742/

      At the rate they are lowering the projected number, the next one could be under my original guess of 5,000.

      • Don Monfort: At the rate they are lowering the projected number, the next one could be under my original guess of 5,000.

        Since we have 12,790 recorded deaths now, I am guessing that is some kind of insult — unless you are claiming that many many of the recorded deaths were wrongly attributed to COVID-19.

      • Does anyone doubt that many of the deaths attributed to CV had some other primary cause? That’s understandable, at this point, but it needs to be sorted out later.

        You could call it an insult. I would call it an acerbic observation. It’s possible that a model that initially spat out numbers in the millions could overshoot in the other direction by a few thousand and spit out a 2,500. But I think you get the point.

      • Matthew

        Wrongly attributed is perhaps not the right word but I have posted the WHO emergency regulations which gives codes for deaths. If CV is present it needs to be recorded on the death certificate as the cause of death even if the patient died WITH CV but not OF it. I have also posted the study by the Italian Health Authorities that some 12% of deaths stated to be by CV were actually CAUSED by CV.
        Would you like me to post these two official documents again?

        Alternatively, although a blog post where comments descend into conspiracy theories the article itself provides a good summary

        https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/05/covid19-death-figures-a-substantial-over-estimate/

        As you know many Hospitals are themselves breeding grounds for CV, MRSA, Noravirus etc and a patient going in with none of these is possibly going to catch one of them during their stay and those going in are by definition pretty sick.

        tonyb

      • tonyb: Wrongly attributed is perhaps not the right word but I have posted the WHO emergency regulations which gives codes for deaths

        I understand you. But DM’s comment was unclear. What he might have said but didn’t at first is that when the deaths “caused by” SARS CoV-2 are accurately separated out from the deaths “accompanied by” the virus or even found to have occurred to people “without” the virus, the final corrected total might be lower than his forecast.

        DM clarified: Does anyone doubt that many of the deaths attributed to CV had some other primary cause? That’s understandable, at this point, but it needs to be sorted out later.

        That’s what I asked. Well, I didn’t exactly ask, I posited one possibility, and another possibility.

        thanks to you both for your responses.

      • Today they lowered the estimate of deaths to 60K. Down from 81K a couple of days ago, which was down from 93K on April 1, which was down from a gazillion on…. Somebody with math ability tell me how many days is it going to take the model to get to zero:

        https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/04/08/ihme-model-lowers-u-s-coronavirus-death-projections-by-25-to-60415/

      • > Does anyone doubt that many of the deaths attributed to CV had some other primary cause? That’s understandable, at this point, but it needs to be sorted out later.

        Does anyone doubt that there are many deaths from COVID-19 which have not yet (or that possibly will ever) be in the official count?

        These are the reasons why people shouldn’t run with preliminary data except so at to include it in an examination of probabilities.

      • Don

        Sweden has just abandoned a clinical trial amidst concerns of severe reactions in some patients

        https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8199477/Swedish-hospitals-stop-prescribing-chloroquine-coronavirus-patients-adverse-effects.html

        tonyb

      • tony,
        They must be using that aquarium cleaning product in Sweden. Nationalized health budgetary issue? Trump is getting millions and millions of doses donated by big pharma. I am sure he would send them some, if they promised to use it properly.

        Maybe they are overdosing those patients, tony. Haven’t heard any other country having similar issues and shutting down use.

    • sciencereview18: Graph of Flu Deaths . . . showing MUCH lower this season:

      Maybe it’s little more than late reporting:
      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/07/coronavirus-correcting-recent-u-s-weekly-death-statistics-for-incomplete-reporting/

  94. Covid-19 cases daily change USA 7:00 PM EDT
    Date total cases % change
    4/1/2020 26690
    +.04%
    4/2/2020 26797
    +35.3%
    4/3/2020 36272
    -10.5%
    4/4/2020 32428
    -14.5%
    4/5/2020 27725
    +o.8%
    4/6/200 27948
    +1.8%
    4/7/2020 28465
    Total 4/6 177,860
    4/7 175,827

  95. Robert Clark: 4/6/200 27948
    +1.8%
    4/7/2020 28465
    Total 4/6 177,860
    4/7 175,827

    what are those numbers? From worldometers I have for US:

    for April 6, 28212 new cases on 334232 accumulated: 7.8% increase

    for April 7, 28608 new cases on 364885 accumulated: 7.2% increase

    That’s down from >14% per day increases before 7 days ago.

  96. https://www.bing.com/search?q=covid-19&qs=HS&sk=HS2&sc=5-0&cvid=9C40723FAF924FF59EB76A6A26A7C6D3&FORM=QBLH&sp=3

    The daily # is from the above at 7:00PM EDT
    The large number is the total of the 7 days above. I believe that is the total that self isolated over the last week.

    • matthewrmarler, I wasn’t aware of that.

      I just saw an interview with Dr. Marc Siege, one of those media talking head doctors; he described how his 96 year old father was near death from COVID-19. His father was given hydroxychloroquine; the next day he was up and about. I hear increasing stories like this. I’m sure there must be a few not so successful examples, but as a practical matter, doctors wouldn’t continue prescribing a drug if they’re getting bad results.

      The politics surrounding HCQ are disturbing, but if the story you post is accurate, then a bell curve should develop sooner rather than later proving the drugs efficacy, or lack of efficacy if the upward trend continues on.

      • jungletrunks: I hear increasing stories like this.

        A number of the individual anecdotes are quite compelling.

      • > I’m sure there must be a few not so successful examples, but as a practical matter, doctors wouldn’t continue prescribing a drug if they’re getting bad results.

        We know that studies of how people reason suggests that people don’t weight the different stories in this kind of situation evenly. That’s going to even more be the case when there is a political/ideological overlay.

        I don’t know why you assume there are only a “few” of such “not so successful examples.” Even if the drug is effective there would likely be many examples where it didn’t work, or where the effect was negative in some fashion. As I’m sure you know, the point is that you do clinical trials to evaluate the different outcomes with a uniform standard because due skeptical diligence would demand such.

    • PJMedia exaggerates. I watched that interview and as far as I can recall, no such thing was said. In fact, as I commented last night Dr OZ had a trial going giving HDQ to out patients and it was halted by Cuomo. Cuomo is trying to keep it in a hospital setting in controlled trials. Supply of HDQ is also apparently a problem in NY. Widespread use is not likely. Cuomo has asked feds for more supply. He needs to take his foot off the brake, in my very humble opinion. Folks are piling up in the fridges.

      • Don Monfort: I watched that interview and as far as I can recall, no such thing was said.

        What was not said?

      • Don Monfort

        virtually-all-ny-patients-and-docs-are-taking-it/

      • jungletrunks

        Appreciate you rounding the story out, Don.

      • Don Monfort: virtually-all-ny-patients-and-docs-are-taking-it/

        Are you saying the transcript is in error? Or are you saying that you missed when Navarro said it?

      • Matt,
        I read the PJ article again. They quoted Navarro:

        “You may find this interesting. In the city that you live in, in New York, in the New York health and hospitals system, virtually every patient now that comes in presenting COVID-19 symptoms is given a cycle of hydroxychloroquine,”

        In the interview he said that a Dr. Katz, who is in charge of I believe 11 hospitals in NYC, gave the order for the use of HDQ for patients in those hospitals. Navarro did not say:

        “virtually-all-ny-patients-and-docs-are-taking-it/”

  97. I’ve been trying to compare the deaths and cases in the Detroit area to other cities and Metro areas across the US since they are so much higher than all other areas except NYC. Almost impossible. The reporting by state for their local units of government has no consistency in type of data or by sources for reports. I hope there is some standardization so the Federal Government is able to obtain the kind of data they need.

    • I am from Detroit and have peeps still there. Not too bright. It’s bad and getting worse. They don’t like to obey rules over there.

    • Detroit is not densely populated. Everybody left. So to overtake NYC in just a few days is not a good sign for the near future.

      https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits/archives/2020/04/07/detroit-has-a-higher-coronavirus-death-rate-than-new-york-city

      • Thanks for the link. Given Michigan was an early lockdown state, it’s unbelievable how high the rate is in Detroit. Not only the rate but the total number is greater than some of the more populated cities in the country.

        There is no standardized reporting by states. As an example, I searched but couldn’t find the deaths in Columbus. The state government source had Ohio’s total (the entire state, I believe, is less than Detroit itself and that is not even counting Wayne County) but no number for Columbus, Cleveland or Cincinnati.

        “Everybody left” Yep. Going from 1.8 million to under 700,000 leaves huge holes in neighborhoods. I remember touring the area around the State Fairgrounds for work in the mid 70s and seeing a tremendous number of abandoned houses and empty lots. The population was quite a bit higher then. Ol’ Coleman Young tried to turn things around, just like all the mayors since, but it’s a tough slog.

      • ceresco,
        It has gotten so bad in Detroit, that they have elected a white mayor. He’s a Democrat, so they are still going down hill.

    • Ceresco

      Do Detroit and NYC have an especially high ethnic population? Figures just released here show that our ethic minorities have a very disproportionate number of deaths from CV. This is said to be lifestyle (living closer together in a more inter generational fashion) crowded housing and a much higher than average propensity to diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease and obesity. All big factors in CV deaths

      tonyb

      • Hi Tony

        I’m confounded by Detroit. NYC I get. Density of population, crowded subways, pockets of poverty, ethnic cultural influences, hub of international travel, Governor Cuomo has repeatedly admonished New Yorkers for not following social distancing guidance. I could go on.

        But Detroit is not easily explained. They have 80% African American population. As Dr Birx discussed yesterday, the African American community faces extra challenges due to high rates of underlying health issues. So that could explain some of it. Detroit has a high poverty rate. That explains some more. But many urban areas have high levels of poverty and African American population bases. St Louis, a city in Missouri, with some of the same demographics and economic challenges has 12 deaths. Detroit has 222. Baltimore has a low death total as well. I could go and on with the same story about many other urban areas with death totals much lower than Detroit. I don’t have an answer.

        Michigan is a microcosm of the nation. It has a pocket of high case and death levels but the rest of the state has a different experience. There are 83 counties in Michigan. Of those counties, 75 have had 0 to 4 deaths. 42 of those counties have 0 deaths.

        There are 3,172 counties in the US. About 65% of the deaths are in 25 counties in the NYC and Detroit Metro areas. The other 3,117 counties average about 1.4 deaths per county.

      • Ceresco kid

        As an outsider looking in I am much less confounded than you. Here is a science paper on TB in Michigan rather than a hysterical newspaper account

        https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-019-8036-y

        If you look at ‘background’ you will see this ethnic grouping has much higher levels of mortality in numerous types of illnesses.

        Obesity, diabetes, smoking, high blood pressure etc etc are all very high in this grouping and are the majority of the ‘underlying health causes’ mentioned every day over here when deaths are reported. Those with underlying causes represent roughly 90% or so of all cv allocated deaths although as we say they mostly died with it but not OF it as it was the underlying causes that were the prime cause .of death.

        I am not sure you need to look much further than this when combined with relative poverty, housing conditions etc

        tonyb

      • I agree with the link but my being confounded was that many other urban areas have the same situation but have dramatically lower rates of deaths than Detroit.

      • Don Monfort

        They may not be done yet, kid. Orleans Parish-New Orleans 400,000 pop:

        https://www.wwltv.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/new-orleans-louisiana-coronavirus-covid-19-updates-wednesday/289-51e669ea-f2bf-4b16-a9a9-839dad013494

        But in Bay Area we are doing relatively well in Alameda-Oakland: 15 deaths 1.5 m pop.

        Give the credit to that goofball Gavin Newsom. He got this right.

  98. CHU de Nice, like other establishments, is testing the hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin combination in patients hospitalized with severe forms of Covid-19. How are these patients followed from a cardiological point of view?
    “We have set up a 7/7 and H24 monitoring method; all the Covid sectors of the Nice University Hospital send us the patient’s ECG [electrocardiogram, ed] recordings. We interpret them live and report anomalies to them which predispose to toxicity. And which then require a cessation of treatment. “

    • “CHU de Nice, like other establishments, is testing the hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin combination in patients hospitalized with severe forms of Covid-19.”

      Seems to be a common strategy. Wait till the virus has done it’s dirty work and then try to kill it.

      “How are these patients followed from a cardiological point of view?
      “We have set up a 7/7 and H24 monitoring method; all the Covid sectors of the Nice University Hospital send us the patient’s ECG [electrocardiogram, ed] recordings. We interpret them live and report anomalies to them which predispose to toxicity. And which then require a cessation of treatment. ”

      Patients who are in the throes of multiple organ failure might have a squiggly ECG. Stop treatment. Free up some bedspace.

      There has been rare cardiac toxicity from long term use. This is a typical study:

      https://acrabstracts.org/abstract/increased-risk-of-heart-failure-with-prolonged-use-of-hydroxychloroquine-in-patients-with-rheumatoid-arthritis/

      • Don Monfort: Seems to be a common strategy. Wait till the virus has done it’s dirty work and then try to kill it.

        Are you supporting the idea (I an others wrote about it) that the drug might not work when given to people who had tissue damage from the virus?

      • yep

    • Over 50% of US deaths are in the NYC Metro area. Maybe we should consider a reverse Revolution and give the two colonies back to the Brits.

      • Edim

        Whilst your chart is very interesting I don’t recognise the red line showing covid 19 deaths. The number to date in the UK is far lower that 13000, with some 6500 dying to date of whom a huge proportion have died WITH CV but not OF it. Please clarify your stats. Thanks

        Tonyb

      • Evenin’ Tony,

        I’m a bit behind the curve on the discussion here.

        How do you differentiate between UK citizens who have died “of” COVID-19 versus those who have died “with” it?

      • You use the same algorithm that assigns seasonal flu as the cause of death. If an old person dies of pneumonia in the flu season, they died of the seasonal flu.

        And, get your flu and pneumonia shots.

      • Jim Hunt: How do you differentiate between UK citizens who have died “of” COVID-19 versus those who have died “with” it?

        At some point there will be better estimates of the false positive, true positive, false negative, and true negative rates of the tests; better estimates of the true prevalences of SARS CoV-2 in the population, of those who develop symptoms, and how many of the symptomatic had likely lethal comorbidities. Plus there will be the usual expert guesses at some quantities. Then everyone with a calculator or computer will calculate a bunch of conditional probabilities from Bayes’ Theorem, and we’ll have a range of estimates.

      • Hi Jim

        One mercy is that the seagulls at present seen fewer and less noisy than usual as we come up to peak nesting time. I attribute it to far fewer tourists and also takeways being taken home rather than consumed in the open then, if we are lucky the packaging put into a litter bin, which the seagulls quickly pounce on. Or of course some idiot tourists think it ok to feed these flying rats. The end result is that there is much less food for them and they are heading out to sea

        to answer your question

        In the UK, deaths where CV is present must be recorded as the cause even though the patient may have died WITH it rather than OF it. This prompted a number of posts which are self explanatory;

        April 3, 2020 at 2:27 am |

        “Are the increasing deaths an artifact of the ramping up of the number of tests per day?”
        Yes. With positive test the deaths are simply called covid-19 deaths.
        *
        According to the WHO’s new mortality codes for Covid-19, deaths with positive test are coded U07.1

        “Suspected” or “Probable” Covid-19 deaths without a test, are coded U07.2
        https://www.who.int/classifications/icd/covid19/en/

        Hence the pandemic of reporting “Covid-19 deaths”

        This from the WHO site;

        https://www.who.int/classifications/icd/covid19/en/enu
        Emergency use ICD codes for COVID-19 disease outbreak

        “The COVID-19 disease outbreak has been declared a public health emergency of international concern.

        An emergency ICD-10 code of ‘U07.1 COVID-19, virus identified’ is assigned to a disease diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed by laboratory testing.

        An emergency ICD-10 code of ‘U07.2 COVID-19, virus not identified’ is assigned to a clinical or epidemiological diagnosis of COVID-19 where laboratory confirmation is inconclusive or not available.

        Both U07.1 and U07.2 may be used for mortality coding as cause of death
        In ICD-11, the code for the confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 is RA01.0 and the code for the clinical diagnosis (suspected or probable) of COVID-19 is RA01.1.”

        It was earlier reported by the medical authorities in Italy that only in some 12% of deaths listed as CV, was the virus found to be the actual primary cause. Has this changed? Was it ever true?

        keep safe
        tonyb

      • Thanks Tony,

        I’m familiar with the “reporting code” argument, but I have yet to see any hard numbers quantifying the “with” as opposed to “of” numbers in any country, let alone the UK. Perhaps there is no alternative but to wait for the eventual “excess mortality” statistics?

        We’re (mostly!) happily “self isolating” here in North Cornwall, except that we can no longer get our groceries delivered in the way we are used to. We’re forced to go shopping more often than in the good ol’ pre-coronavirus days!

        At least the sun was shining this afternoon, and our daily allotment of exercise was taken cycling up onto the edge of Bodmin Moor and back. No more surfing for the duration though :(

        Are you familiar with the work of James Annan? Here’s his “alternative projection” of UK “hospitalised” deaths attributed to COVID-19:

        http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/04/covid-19-in-the-united-kingdom/#comment-328145

        I trust you are also successfully keeping the old heart and lungs busy? Every little helps!

      • tonyb | April 8, 2020 at 8:44 am |

        Edim

        Whilst your chart is very interesting I don’t recognise the red line showing covid 19 deaths. The number to date in the UK is far lower that 13000, with some 6500 dying to date of whom a huge proportion have died WITH CV but not OF it. Please clarify your stats. Thanks

        Tonyb

        ***

        Notes to the data/charts
        http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/pages/notes_on_the_data.html

        Specifically for the red extrapolated line you query :
        “Data from 7APR to 10APR is linear extrapolation or28MAR to 6APR data.”

        The Question from Twitter was mine ( Tattius ), because I found Chart3 difficult to understand. https://twitter.com/InProportion2/status/1246761161355378688

        The maths part of that query for me has now been resolved after discussion with the author, but some of the ONS data, I’m still struggling with.

        Hope this helps.

        MG

      • Jim

        Pleased to hear you are safe . I know of Annan.

        My big concern is the lock down. forgetting the freedom part for a minute I do wonder whether locking everyone up to spread the virus with in households is a good idea .

        Ten certain members of that household will go out to spread it in the wider community through work, shopping etc .

        Not to mention the physical, mental and wealth aspects and the effects on personal relations. Not everyone can cycle to Bodmin or walk down to the beach to get exercise. It seems foolish to close parks and herd everyone onto more crowded pavements

        . Bearing n mind the long quarantine/gestation period of CV I reckoned that any uptick in deaths from around Mon or Tuesday this week we are now in could be attributed to the lock down. We have seen two substantial upticks. Lets hope they are just outliers otherwise it would appear the lockdown contributes to more deaths but once you have started you presumably have to continue

        tonyb

      • Good morning Tony,

        It seems we’re going to have to agree to disagree about COVID-19 as well as Arctic sea ice!

        Once the dust eventually settles and the ultimate excess mortality statistics are revealed I reckon you’ll have a hard time proving that the UK lockdown increased transmission of the virus.

        In the meantime Easter is almost upon us and thankfully our valiant boys in blue are locking up coronavirus lockdown contraveners attempting to cross the border into sunny South West England:

        http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/04/covid-19-in-south-west-england/

        However currently one vital question remains unanswered:

      • Mark

        Thanks for that. In effect we seem to be saying we have an actual figure and a projected figure?

        That is all very well but we then need to know the date of the actual so we can do a fair comparison with the other stats on that date.

        it seems to be that in Edims graph the figures to 2 April are accurate and real, but anything beyond that is speculative? So until the 10th has passed and we can look back we won’t know the actual comparative figure. So we are always a week or so behind which at this stage of the pandemic is a lot.

        See my reply to Jim below. I will be interested to see whether any uptick coincides with the lockdown effect

        tonyb

      • Mark Gobell

        tonyb – If you click on chart3 the data sources are described.

        MG

      • Don Monfort

        tony,
        My guess is the theory is that inter-household transmission is going to take place whether you lock down, or not. In the perfect scenario, everybody stays home for a month, or however long it takes to bend the curve down. All the current carriers of the virus could only infect their own households. If proper precautions are taken within households, that would be limited and easier to contain. I think it is better to give it a shot, instead of letting it rip and see what happens.

        Having an effective treatment and prophylactic would help a lot. The Lupus treatment physician community is sifting through millions of lupus patient medical records looking for lupus patients taking HDQ, who they can identify from said records as having been infected with COVID 19. They ain’t finding any out of 15,000 patients id’d. Well one was known to be treated at Cedars Sinai NY , who was taking the HDQ intermittently.

      • Don Monfort

        I’ll try it again. If it doesn’t work, you can go to yourube and look for:

        Why Lupus Patients May Hold The Key To Whether Hydroxychloroquine Could Work – Part 2

      • Don Monfort

        Part 1: The French doc 1000 patients treated with HDQ + anti biotic 20 went to ICU and 7 so far died, old and with co-morbities, side effects, don’t worry about it:

        CNN and MSDNC, and the rest of the fake news media insist it is poison. Trying to scare folks from using it. Pathetic.

      • Don Monfort

        Same deal. Trying again. Title on youtube:

        Why Lupus Patients May Hold The Key To Whether Hydroxychloroquine Could Work – Part 1

      • Mark

        I thought this figure interesting ‘approx average number dying hospital 2018’ Its a huge number

        That presumably includes all sorts of deaths from natural causes, accidents etc and also hospital infections of which MRSA and Noravirus perhaps being the most virulent.

        Going to hospital can be quite dangerous and if you don’t have CV when you currently go in you may then well acquire it although hopefully better hygiene standards and awareness might cut MRSA and NV.

        tonyb

      • Mark Gobell

        edimbukvarevic | April 8, 2020 at 7:21 am and tonyb

        Chart3 is wrong.

        I queried the composition of, for example, the 27 March stacked bar showing 7,025 CV-19 ONS registered deaths and 4,116 non CV-19 reg deaths, because I did not recognize the 7,025 total from any source that I’ve been recording, nor from any calculated total thereof.

        In our twitter exchange the author pointed to an explanation of the 7,025 total which he had posted on his website here :

        Notes to the data/charts
        http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/pages/notes_on_the_data.html
        Question from Twitter

        4. COVID DEATHS – Tab “Covid-19 – E&W comparisons”, Col F “ONS deaths by actual date of death – registered by 1st April”, sum rows 22 to 28 inclusive to get 7025 (B) the total Covid deaths for the week ending 27/03/2020

        Note typo : Col F should read Col E

        Here is the ONS source spreadsheet :

        https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/publishedweek132020.xlsx

        I have just Tweeted this :

        Tattius
        @Tattius1
        Replying to
        @InProportion2

        Re: Your summation of the ONS April 1st death registrations for Week 13 ( 21 – 27 March ) yielding 7,205 CV-019 deaths. This is wrong. Check reference 6 description in cell A40 of sheet ‘Covid-19 – E&W comparisons’ – ‘6 Counts are cumulative’

        10:27 AM · Apr 9, 2020

        *

        He is summing on an already cumulative column, which is why I found the 7,025 total such a shock.

        Chart3 and the conclusion / question about “non Covid-19 deaths dropping rapidly”, needs revising.

        MG

      • Jim

        I will wait for statistics-but not from ferguson- as to whether the lockdown had the effect wanted, bearing in mind all the huge issues it has thrown up.

        Common sense says that getting exercise from surfing should be ok provided thousands of other people haven’t had the same idea and arrived in numerous cars. Shutting parks is a bad idea and whilst not a golfer, by definition people getting exercise round these courses are far better off than on crowded pavements or towpaths etc.

        it has been a glorious week so we will have to wait and see if people come down over Easter. It appear some are coming at night across country. it is very selfish as we have enough food, doctors, medical supplies and hospitals for residents (often only just) but not for numerous out of towners who might stay for weeks.

        mind you I take a fairly dim view of many tourists. it has done our economy little good.

        tonyb

      • Afternoon Tony,

        I feel sure that we can agree that “the law” is not infrequently “an ass”, and that our joint “common sense” doesn’t necessarily conform to the restrictions our “lords and masters” write in their “statute book”?

        However I’m not entirely sure where in the UK statute book to look for the definitive coronavirus lockdown restrictions!

        In the continuing absence of guidance from the boys in blue and/or our glorious “government”, here’s some snaps I took on my permitted bike ride yesterday evening:

      • Mark Gobell

        edimbukvarevic | April 8, 2020 at 7:21 am | Reply
        http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/

        Re: Chart3 is wrong :

        Data Diary
        http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/pages/notes_on_the_data.html
        UPDATE 2020-04-09

        Previous versions of chart had serious error overstating the number of COVID-19 Deaths.

        Cumulative totals were mistaken for daily totals. This means there are far fewer COVID-19 Deaths than were previously shown. Now corrected.

        Thanks to @Tattius1 for pointing out the error.

        *
        Chart3 has now been updated :
        http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/

        MG

      • Mark Gobell

        Jim Hunt | April 9, 2020 at 8:53 am |
        https://judithcurry.com/2020/03/30/cov-discussion-thread-ii/#comment-913865
        Afternoon Tony,
        […]
        However I’m not entirely sure where in the UK statute book to look for the definitive coronavirus lockdown restrictions! […]
        *
        Coronavirus Act 2020

        Click to access ukpga_20200007_en.pdf

        Coronavirus Fact-Check #2: “The Emergency Powers Will Only Last 2 years!”
        https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/08/coronavirus-fact-check-2-the-emergency-powers-will-only-last-2-years/

        Peter Hitchens blog :
        29 March 2020 8:48 AM
        There’s Powerful Evidence This Great Panic is Foolish. Yet our freedom is still broken and our economy crippled
        https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/human-rights/

        Section 45 C (3) (c) Of The Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984 (appropriately enough) is the bit that does it. Once the Heath Secretary believes there is a threat to public health, he has – or claims to have – limitless powers to do what he likes ‘imposing or enabling the imposition of restrictions or requirements on or in relation to persons, things or premises in the event of, or in response to, a threat to public health’.

        The former Supreme Court Judge Lord Sumption doubts that the Act can be used in this way and warns ‘There is a difference between law and official instructions. It is the difference between a democracy and a police state.
        […]

        Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984

        Click to access ukpga_19840022_en.pdf

        MG

      • Thanks Mark,

        However as far as I can tell on brief perusal none of your references explicitly mention “surfing”?

        Kernow common sense suggests a rule not to “drop in” within 2 meters of anybody already riding a wave, though presumably things won’t be terribly crowded “out back” even during the Easter holiday this year!

      • Mark Gobell

        @ Jim Hunt

        Re: UK Legislation :

        The CV restrictions are enacted as part of the The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/contents/made

        Introductory Text
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/introduction/made

        1. Citation, commencement, application and interpretation
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/1/made

        2. Revocation and saving
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/2/made

        3. The emergency period and review of need for restrictions
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/3/made

        4. Requirement to close premises and businesses during the emergency
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/4/made

        5. Further restrictions and closures during the emergency period
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/5/made

        6. Restrictions on movement
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/6/made

        7. Restrictions on gatherings
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/7/made

        8. Enforcement of requirement
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/8/made

        9. Offences and penalties
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/9/made

        10. Fixed penalty notices
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/10/made

        11. Prosecutions
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/11/made

        12. Expiry
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/12/made

        SCHEDULE 1
        Underlying Medical Conditions
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/schedule/1/made

        SCHEDULE 2
        Businesses subject to restrictions or closure
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/schedule/2/made

        Explanatory Note
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/note/made

        MG

      • Mark,

        So the UK small print specifically allows me “to take exercise either alone or with other members of [my] household.”

        My favourite form of exercise involves jumping into the North Atlantic, an activity which is not explicitly mentioned in the glossy leaflet from BoJo which finally reached me yesterday.

        The North Atlantic is pretty big, so hopefully the powers that be will allow that jumping in it a few hundred meters from anybody outside my household doesn’t result in “a gathering in a public place”?

        Am I permitted to put my board in the back of my EV and take my habitual leisurely drive to a long beach a few miles from my residence? Or not?

      • Mark

        Having had years of looking at global warming models which are often nonsensical, my faith in modelling highly speculative numbers using unknown or highly speculative parameters is very low.

        If I can notice the obvious mistake and YOU can notice the mistake and do something about it (well done!) the question arises as to what sort of data are our lords and masters working with, even assuming they study them closely?

        Ironically the estimated deaths figures to April 10th is unfortunately too low, but presumably once the real data clicks in it will be changed and projections will also change.

        This is a very useful set of data. I have been writing numerous posts trying to put numbers into context but few people seem to realise that people die all the time and that in the UK we have some 600,000 deaths annually of which some 140,000 are classed as ‘avoidable.’

        Take this category into account and the annual flu deaths and it does make you wonder why they don’t shut the economy down every winter to save this much greater number. Perhaps they didn’t notice? This is the first media and social media epidemic and people don’t seem to want to look at the context before screaming

        tonyb

      • Jim Hunt | April 9, 2020 at 11:02 am |
        https://judithcurry.com/2020/03/30/cov-discussion-thread-ii/#comment-913875

        Mark,

        So the UK small print specifically allows me “to take exercise either alone or with other members of [my] household.” […]

        My favourite form of exercise involves jumping into the North Atlantic, an activity which is not explicitly mentioned in the glossy leaflet from BoJo which finally reached me yesterday.

        The North Atlantic is pretty big, so hopefully the powers that be will allow that jumping in it a few hundred meters from anybody outside my household doesn’t result in “a gathering in a public place”?

        Am I permitted to put my board in the back of my EV and take my habitual leisurely drive to a long beach a few miles from my residence? Or not?

        *
        https://judithcurry.com/2020/03/30/cov-discussion-thread-ii/#comment-913867
        The former Supreme Court Judge Lord Sumption doubts that the Act can be used in this way and warns ‘There is a difference between law and official instructions. It is the difference between a democracy and a police state.

        *
        Government advice & guidance is not the law.

        Accordingly, UK Gov’s advice / guidance to restrict outdoor exercise to one form and one occasion is not the law.

        The Regulations simply state :
        https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/6/made

        6. (b) to take exercise either alone or with other members of their household;

        The regulations do not stipulate how many times one can take outdoor exercise each day.

        Police interpretation and enforcement remains another matter until tested & challenged. Meanwhile, folk whom plod judge to be transgressors are likely to be fined £30, then £120 then £960 by way of fixed penalty notices. I have no idea about any right of appeal.

        As far as travelling to another place to take outdoor exercise is concerned, that has already been judged to be an unnecessary journey. Few if any need to take to their cars to get outdoor exercise.

        Remember that this is all predicated on the oft recited mantra, Stay Indoors. Protect the NHS. Save Lives.

        So, driving a vehicle for a non-essential journey could place an unnecessary burden on the NHS should an accident occur.

        The big test is the Easter weekend, hence the ramping up of the rhetoric and threats from the police all over the news …

        All being well, Devon & Cornwall et al, look set fair for a uniquely peaceful weekend.

        MG

      • Thanks Mark,

        Personally I consider jumping in the North Atlantic clad in neoprene on a regular basis as “essential”! Whether a berobed/bewigged judge would agree is I suspect debatable.

        A relatively peaceful Easter weekend in sunny South West England no doubt, but no doubt not absolutely grockle/emmet free:

      • Jim

        I would agree with Marks analysis. I do not think there is anything in the letter of the law forbidding you to surf, but certainly it would be considered to be against the spirit of the law.

        You also run into this knotty one as to what is an unnecessary journey. I suspect driving to a beach with a surf board in the back would not get a lot of sympathy from the police or the Daily Mail headline writers. .

        tonyb

      • Thanks for your advice Tony. Kasia and I stuck to cycling today. What’s more whilst en route I thought of you all!

        How about this for a “workaround” though? Since we live in “the middle of nowhere” we have traditionally obtained almost all of our groceries via “online” deliveries. However now it’s impossible to book a slot. The nearest Sainsbury’s is in Bude. Hence driving Lisa over there is essential to prevent starvation. Having done our food shopping we wander down to the beach for a quick dip in the Atlantic.

        Surely no judge, berobed or otherwise, could object to that? Sadly I’ve only just come up with that cunning plan, because today would have been the perfect opportunity to try it out in anger:

      • Thanks tonyb and Mark Gobell!

    • It might even be worse because the US is so far behind on testing even sick people they can’t test dead people who may die of COVID-19 complications and not get reported. I wonder also if there is a deliberate underestimation of deaths in red states. Georgia is reporting relatively low rates but they are scouting out the Georgia World Congress Center to use as improvised hospital.

      https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/emails-detail-state-plans-turn-georgia-world-congress-center-into-massive-hospital/OBFOTFV27ZDKREFGS2L7HPC2CI/

    • Real question is there a cover up?

      Real deaths may already be over 20,000 or more if we are missing 50% of the data.

      • jungletrunks

        In China, yes.

      • Why should we believe the real deaths are anywhere near as low as they are showing up?

        There are many states showing less than 100 deaths – almost every state in the South except Georgia, Louisiana, and Florida. That doesn’t seem realistic to me. Whether it is deliberate or just a fact of lack of testing, particularly in rural areas, would be a question that needs to be asked.

      • The tests may be bad too:

        Well, I’m telling you, I’m still missing 50% of the data from reporting,” she said. “I have 660 (thousand) tests reported in. We’ve done 1.3 million. … So, we do need to see — the bill said you need to report. We are still not receiving 100% of the tests.”

        When pressed about the possibility that 1 in 3 tests had produced false negatives, Birx said, “I haven’t seen that kind of anomaly.”

        Birx added that “the number of positive tests is tracking very closely with a number of cases diagnosed.”

        https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/politics/birx-task-force-coronavirus-testing/index.html

      • You need a test to figure out somebody is dead? Here’s a test. Put a mirror to their nose. If it doesn’t fog up, you gotta corpse.

      • San Diego County in California has experienced 31 deaths and 1454 cases, in a population of 2.5 million. Relatively warm, relatively dry (compared to New Orleans, for example), relatively low population density, and no large Mardi Gras celebration. No coverup.

        https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/liveblog/coronavirus-live-updates-april-8

        Relatively rapid social distancing responses beginning in late January, including quarantining of returning cruise line passengers at military bases, people avoiding crowded establishments like fitness centers and restaurants before the official shut-downs.

      • James

        Believe in the cock up theory of govt and institutions and individuals, well before you enter the realms of conspiracy theory.

        tonyb

  99. Deaths are also likely underestimated. Since most deaths are linked to additional health conditions, that leaves multiple options for official cause of death. Further, overwhelmed hospitals set a priority on care, not on data collection. That does not mean deaths are 10 times higher, but the number of actual deaths from the virus is likely higher than the number of reported “confirmed” deaths.

    Bottom line: It’s worse than the numbers suggest.

    https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/490541-coronavirus-its-time-to-get-real-about-the-misleading-data

  100. The U.S.already “covered-up” Covid-19 casualties by not testing enough. And the U.S. CDC will now do exactly what China has done during the outbreak in Hubei province. It will only report confirmed cases and the fatalities thereof. That is exactly the “cover-up” the U.S. has accused China of.

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/us-will-cover-up-its-own-coronavirus-death-toll.html

    • And, their “whistleblower” doctor not only did not get fired, he never missed a day of work, Unfortunately, later he treated a glaucoma patient who was infected and the doctor died of COVID-19.

      And, he wasn’t actually blowing a whistle to the world, just close friends.

      • jungletrunks

        Keeping it topically scientific helps with moderation, Don; though I concur with your want to calling the syndrome something else!

    • You seem to be very unhappy here, jimmy. Write down your suggestions on how the authorities should be handling this and I will pass them along to someone who will pass them along to the WH, so they can have a good laugh at your hysteria.

      • dondee,

        First step would be remove Trump and Pence from office and put Nancy Pelosi in charge.

        Any more questions?

      • Good luck with that, jimmy. Try the HDQ for the TDS.

      • James

        So you are suggesting a coup? Is it a military one or an ‘I personally hated Trump’ from day one’ coup?

      • Impeachment and removal.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_line_of_succession

        “The line of succession follows the order of: vice president, speaker of the House of Representatives, president pro tempore of the Senate, and then the eligible heads of federal executive departments who form the president’s Cabinet.”

      • James Cross: Impeachment and removal.

        Which member of the House wishes to have his or her contradictory comments over the past months repeated and repeated in the press? Whose husbands and wives have been profiteering off hoarding the supplies (c.f. Biden supporters) or shilling for the Chinese Communist Party? I am not seeing an impeachment soon.

      • It is fun listening to Donald “I don’t accept any responsibility” “It’s going to be all over by April” Trump’s words.

      • Don Monfort

        It’s not working for you, jimmy. Try the emoluments thing. You really need to get treatment for that TDS.

      • jungletrunks

        Don, It appears the two JC’s are inflicted with a global variant of the Stockholm Syndrome. They’re held hostage to Chinese ideology, captive through a sympathetic bond, an emotional appeal for its authoritarianism. They’re completely blind to recent atrocities that China is responsible for, and instead have developed an irrational respect for the Chinese system, they exhibit negative feelings towards police if they’re like many within the cult.

        Today, Red China persecutes at least a million Uighur’s in concentration camps. They implement systematic executions. They practice acts of terror against Falun Gong practitioners and Muslims; executing, then harvesting the organs from these people and selling them to either Chinese citizens or foreign “transplant tourists”, quite reminiscent of Josef Mengele’s medical atrocities. One could go on at length, yet China is a model nation for many of the hard Left, they will not admonish China, no matter the degree of Chinese abuse towards their citizens. They can’t see reality. This sounds like a very close parallel to the Stockholm Syndrome.

      • James Cross: “It’s going to be all over by April” Trump’s words.

        I think the House is going to have trouble making that an impeachable offense.

    • Profiteering.

      If hydroxychloroquine becomes an accepted treatment, several pharmaceutical companies stand to profit, including shareholders and senior executives with connections to the president. Mr. Trump himself has a small personal financial interest in Sanofi, the French drugmaker that makes Plaquenil, the brand-name version of hydroxychloroquine.

  101. When it comes to an accurate count of Covid-19 deaths in the US, “we really are just seeing the tip of the iceberg and a lot of it has to do with the tests we have available,” Dr. Panagis Galiatsatos, a pulmonary and critical care physician on the front lines at Johns Hopkins Medicine in Baltimore, said Monday morning.

    https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/04/07/us-coronavirus-death-count-likely-an-underestimate-heres-why/

    • The numbers I use are significantly higher than the CDC numbers. Compare the data on the CDC site with those on worldometer. The CDC acknowledges that lag. This graph showing the significant drop in reported pneumonia deaths shoots your other theory to hell.

      Are there any other whack job ideas that you have?

      https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUyBMdvWAAEZAwX?format=jpg

      • Your graph for pneumonia deaths for 2019-2020 only goes to mid-March when there were less than 100 recorded CV deaths. What are you trying to prove?

      • Generally I would go with a doctor on the front lines over an armchair epidemiologist. There is a significant under count is almost beyond question. It is true in China, Italy, and the U.K. too.

      • The graph went to late March and thousands of deaths from COVID19 had already occurred in the US. It clearly shows a drop in pneumonia deaths from previous years. That alone destroys your theory and raises the question of whether the drop of pneumonia deaths at the same time as the ramping up of COVID19 deaths was as a result of attribution from one cause to another.

      • Evidence of excess mortality in Italy, France, and the UK suggest that actual CV death rates may be twice what is reported. Why focus on just pneumonia? You should focus on excess mortality. Your data is suspect since the pneumonia rates are dramatically lower than previous years. That probably is an artifact of reporting delays, especially given that the closer you get to the end of the data the more the number diverges from previous years.

    • When you look at this

      https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

      It specifically says the last week is not complete and values can change with additional reporting. Also, the graph of total influenza and pneumonia deaths actually is trending above the baseline and has a sudden upturn right at the last of March and start of April when the CV virus is getting a hold.

      • Here is link to CDC’s weekly flu report . . . and I think that CDC is less than forthcoming here in their choice of information to present:
        https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2

        (Report for Week ending March 28 …. I see no later report.)
        To give a clearer perspective, CDC should have shown the graph of flu deaths, as compared to past years. But they chose to not do that. A picture is worth a 1000 words. They did provide some words, however:
        “Laboratory confirmed flu activity as reported by clinical laboratories continues to decrease sharply and is now low.”

        Instead of showing the flu deaths graph, CDC presents the hospitalization graph, which shows high rate of hospitalization . . . (and which I think may be due to people panicking from covid scare and going to hospital unnecessarily thereby exposing themselves to unnecessary risks of medical interventions/ventilators that may cause death). CDC does acknowledge that the behavior of the hospitalization data is unusual:
        “Note: The COVID-19 pandemic is affecting healthcare seeking behavior. The number of persons and their reasons for seeking care in the outpatient and ED settings is changing. ”

        Also, I note that CDC does report the flu cases as a percentage (which I think is standard procedure), not as the total number of cases (as is being done for covid and which gives a false picture of the spreading rate by conflating it with the increasing rate of testing).
        “The percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for influenza at clinical laboratories decreased from 7.3% last week to 2.1% this week.”

  102. What *is* instructive is that even as the predictions of protagonists atte overtaken within days, rather than the years or decades that’s taken with climate science, how impervious they are to having already been proven wrong.

    Go denizens!

    • The arm waver from down under. Thanks for the drive-by cheap-shot foolishness. You should apply for a position as a baldfaced liar at CNN. The DNC is hiring. Looking for a caretaker-speech writer for old senile serial loser Joe “Where TF am I” Biden. . They don’t have the money to hire two people.

  103. Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS)

    Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) occurs when fluid builds up in the tiny, elastic air sacs (alveoli) in your lungs. The fluid keeps your lungs from filling with enough air, which means less oxygen reaches your bloodstream. This deprives your organs of the oxygen they need to function.

    ARDS typically occurs in people who are already critically ill or who have significant injuries. Severe shortness of breath — the main symptom of ARDS — usually develops within a few hours to a few days after the precipitating injury or infection.

    Many people who develop ARDS don’t survive. The risk of death increases with age and severity of illness. Of the people who do survive ARDS, some recover completely while others experience lasting damage to their lungs.

  104. Will they report this in the TDS fake news media:

    A Harris Poll released on Wednesday indicates that 77 percent of respondents nationally blame the Chinese government for spreading the virus. The sentiment was echoed across the political aisle with 67 percent of registered Democrats, 75 percent of independents, and 90 percent of Republicans attributing the pandemic to China.

    The poll also found that 72 percent of respondents believed China had “inaccurately” reported about the impact that the virus had on its population.

    Given those results, it was not surprising that 69 percent favored President Donald Trump enacting tougher trade policies against the communist regime, while 71 percent said American companies should scale back manufacturing in China. Overall, 54 percent of Americans expressed that the Chinese government should be forced to pay some sort of reparations for the pandemic.

    https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/04/08/harris-poll-77-percent-americans-blame-china-coronavirus-outbreak/

    • Mornin’ Matthew (UTC),

      And what do you suppose that the article you link to proves?

      • Jim Hunt: And what do you suppose that the article you link to proves?

        I do not suppose that it proves anything. It’s just the latest update.

        Possibly the most recent estimates of unknown parameter values show that earlier estimates of unknown parameter values produced forecasts that were too high.

      • Sorry Matthew,

        I missed your reply earlier. All the COVID action has moved to the new thread?

        The article also included (IMHO) rather hyperbolic commentary on yesterday’s IHME numbers! Today’s haven’t dropped yet, and I’m off to bed now (UTC).

        C U L8R

      • Jim Hunt: The article also included (IMHO) rather hyperbolic commentary on yesterday’s IHME numbers!

        Yes, that was a problem with that source. Lots of actual information comes with excess political baggage.

  105. Covid-19 cases daily change USA 7:00 PM EDT
    Date total cases % change
    4/2/2020 26797
    +35.3%
    4/3/2020 36272
    -10.5%
    4/4/2020 32428
    -14.5%
    4/5/2020 27725
    +o.8%
    4/6/2020 27948
    +1.8%
    4/7/2020 28465
    +28.6
    4/8/2020 36616
    Total 4/6 177,860
    4/7 175,827
    4/8 185753

    When the total weekly number begins to drop rapidly, we will we have begun to eliminate the transfer of the virus.

  106. Matthew R Marler

    For the last 7 days,, the total number of cases and percent increases in the US have been;

    244877,14%; 277161, 13% 311357, 12%; 334232, 7.3%; 364885, 7.8%;

    395612, 7.2%; 430212, 6.9%

    For the last 7 days, the total number of deaths and percent increases in the US have been:

    6070, 19%; 7392, 18%; 8452, 16%; 9557, 13%; 10859, 13%;

    12790, 18%; 14736, 15%.

    I apologize for errors in transcription or calculation. I took the numbers from worldometers. There are days when today’s total cases do not equal yesterday’s total cases plus today’s new cases. They say they close each day and start recounting at midnight GMT. I am guessing that their sources may be updating on a different schedule. Maybe someone has better information than have so far gotten.

    • Same old same old. Primum nocere.
      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primum_non_nocere

      “Non-maleficence, which is derived from the maxim, is one of the principal precepts of bioethics that all medical students are taught in school and is a fundamental principle throughout the world. Another way to state it is that, “given an existing problem, it may be better not to do something, or even to do nothing, than to risk causing more harm than good.” It reminds physicians to consider the possible harm that any intervention might do. It is invoked when debating the use of an intervention that carries an obvious risk of harm but a less certain chance of benefit.”

  107. Hydroxychloroquine

    It’s people saying it’s not peer reviewed. Look at your great success saving the planet from climate change. You win the argument. Good job.

    Theory and Practice. Hydroxychloroquine is Practice. One can get stuck in Theory. Practice is what happens in the world. We can talk about speed limits and coming to a stop at stop signs. That’s productive.

    If someone waits at a four way stop for me to stop, I usually don’t. I roll right through it at a low speed. They are doing theory, I am doing practice. The idea is for traffic to move. Not enforce theory.

    People against Hydroxychloroquine are those people waiting for you stop before they go.

    • Ragnaar –

      > Theory and Practice. Hydroxychloroquine is Practice. One can get stuck in Theory.

      HDQ has some potentially serious side effects for some % of the population. Using it as a blanket prophylactic has fairly measurable risk.

      To justify that risk, you should present evidence establishing benefit. The evidence to date regarding benefit is spotty. For example:

      As for the potential benefit to people already at risk of death (in particular) from COVID-19, the calculation might be somewhat different. But the basic rule should still apply, IMO. The evidence in favor (and against) should be heavily scrutinized. That isn’t just “theory.” It’s practice. It isn’t just theory to say that we should proceed with caution. Think of it as slowing down at a 4-way stop sign if you wish. A binary construct of stopping versus proceeding apace is totally theoretical – and bears little relationship to the reality of most people make these decisions. As you indicate when you talk of rolling through at a “slow speed.”

      Scrutinizing the evidence is rolling through at a “slow speed.”

      • Don Monfort

        But your real objection is that Trump is for it. There is no approved double blind placebo controlled treatment for COVID 19. Do we wait for that before we treat those people? Use your little head, instead of letting TDS run your mouth.

      • Don –

        Watch the video.

        If it works that’s great. This notion that I want to die and I want friends family, republicans to die, I want to be locked down and have my life totally disrupted, because I hate Trump is really, really distorted.

      • Here, Don –

        https://www.wxyz.com/news/coronavirus/henry-ford-health-begins-enrollment-in-hydroxychloroquine-study-to-combat-covid-19

        I think we can agree that is a good thing. Try focusing on the positive and points of agreement. You’ll feel better.

      • I watched that video for a few seconds, up to the time that clown said the attention surrounding HDQ was mainly due to one small trial out of France. That’s BS. I don’t watch or listen to BS. Thousands of docs are using it as their first line treatment on COVID. That’s the reason they were using it in France. They used in China, They used it in Korea. You don’t know squat about it.

        You mad at the Big Orange Fella. He is for it, therefore you are agin it. Try to tell the truth for a change. Have you looked into the evidence for HDQ’s safety and effectiveness? Rhetorical question. I am not interested in your reply. You are another TDS sufferer rooting for the virus to take out our POTUS.

      • You should watch to the end – as it destroys the French study that mant Trump supporters referenced as “evidence” over sbd over and over.

        The video was made a while back, so some aspects of it are dated.

        But it serves as an excellent illustration of how people don’t understand the “evidence” they use to draw conclisions.

        If you choose wilful ignorance, that’s your prerogative, Don.

  108. The S & P 500 index plot for the past 3 months. Things will be Okay. It’s a cherrypick to some extent. Using today’s number.

    • Despite the government “lockdown,” and government handing out trillions in a massive redistribution scheme, and possibly massive government surveillance yet to come, things will be ok?

      • Who here, prior to two months ago, would have said we could survive such socialism and massive government interference?

        Nay, not only survive, but be OK?

      • Don Monfort

        Was the government’s prosecution of WWII socialism, joshie? Did we not get back to business after the war? But this episode is causing the left loons to get all giddy. Socialism is not here, joshie. We get out of this economic mess, caused by the Red Chinese thugs and Cuomo-De Blasio syndicate, by going back as soon as possible to what we had been doing doing under the MAGA man. Enjoy your imagined socialism, while you can.

    • Ragnaar; We are in the Twilight Zone. This can’t continue at this pace. Looking at a above average hurricane season, disruptions in the food supply(nature/labor/economics), unstable nations. So I’m very impressed the FED has saved the S&P 500.
      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-economy-factbox/factbox-global-economic-policy-response-to-coronavirus-crisis-idUSKCN21R1N9

    • I wonder if this person got in trouble as a consequence of an allergic reaction? Like what occasionally happens with aspirin.

      Dr. Curry should ban Imgur links, those that are simple grabs of headlines that excise the narrative body. It’s pure sensationalism if one can’t provide the story to the source being couched. I’m looking out for you, JCH; I wouldn’t want you to be classified as merely another Chinese sycophantical propagandist.

      • Yes Dr. Curry, please ban ___!

      • jungletrunks

        Thank you, JCH. We appreciate your realization that headline grabs, with no supporting narrative, is poor form. You’re smarter than that.

      • jungletrunks

        While indeed the headline has a positive spin, it’s not the point, other Imgur grabs you’ve posted weren’t.

        Did you forgo providing the narrative because the headline was enough to present China as leading the charge for a vaccine?

        I researched for this article out of curiosity:

        “because the vaccine was developed by the Academy of Military Medical Sciences (a research unit of the People’s Liberation Army)”?

        I hope there were no Falun Gong subjects near Major General Chen Wei early on.

        Says the person highlighted in the article: “I went to the research team’s office on March 16 and filed my application ” … While I was at the office, I was lucky to meet Major General Chen Wei, the team leader, who explained about the development of the vaccine and assured me that it wouldn’t damage my body. That boosted my confidence.” When did you receive your injection and how did you feel at that time? “I was given mine on the morning of March 19 and immediately put into quarantine for 14 days at a PLA facility….As volunteers, our job is to work together with the scientists. After all, academician Chen (the major general is also a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering) and six members of her team have also been injected with the vaccine, and she was the first person to receive it… The 108 volunteers are divided into three streams, with each receiving either a low, medium or high dose of the drug. I was in the low group so only got one dose.”

        What did you do to keep yourself entertained during the quarantine period? “It was just rest for me. Before then I’d been a volunteer ambulance driver in Wuhan, working every day taking coronavirus patients to hospital. I’d been really busy for more than a month, so the 14-day quarantine period gave me a chance to relax and catch up on some sleep.”

        That last sentence is interesting, China reported no new local coronavirus transmissions for first time on March 18, yet this subject states his 14-day quarantine period gave me a chance to relax and catch up on some sleep. Relax from what if there was no COVID-19 victims left to transport to the hospital? He does state “The situation in Wuhan is getting better…We hope the coronavirus cases can drop to zero soon and our lives can get back to normal.” The Chinese line was that there were no cases on March 18, not a drop.

        Anyway, a bizarre article:
        https://today.line.me/hk/pc/article/Coronavirus+vaccine+trials+Chinese+volunteer+in+Wuhan+tells+his+story-xP1Ore

  109. And it only took 6? trillion dollars (so far) to save the market.
    Another interesting index…
    100 and Below: Slow prophetic activity
    100 to 130: Moderate prophetic activity
    130 to 160: Heavy prophetic activity
    Above 160: Fasten your seat belts
    Now: 186 – all time high 189
    https://www.raptureready.com/rapture-ready-index/

  110. Greater DC area –

    Confirmed cases of COVID-19, April 6, 2020:

    Howard County, Maryland – 214
    Baltimore County, Maryland – 648
    Baltimore, Maryland – 435
    Anne Arundel, Maryland – 343
    Prince George’s, Maryland – 916
    Alexandria, Virginia – 93
    District of Columbia – 1097
    Arlington, Virginia – 203
    Fairfax, Virginia – 488
    Montgomery, Maryland – 793
    ———————————
    Greater DC area – 5,230
    =========================

    Confirmed cases of COVID-19, April 9, 2020

    Howard County, Maryland – 299
    Baltimore County, Maryland – 979
    Baltimore, Maryland – 638
    Anne Arundel, Maryland – 505
    Prince George’s, Maryland – 1476
    Alexandria, Virginia – 143
    District of Columbia – 1523
    Arlington, Virginia – 254
    Fairfax, Virginia – 570
    Montgomery, Maryland – 1214
    ———————————
    Greater DC area – 7601
    ===================

  111. 2nd place, and gaining. USA USA USA!

  112. CDC’s weekly report on flu:
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

    If CDC wanted to give a clear perspective about the flu and covid epidemic in their usual weekly report, they would show a graph comparing the flu spread for this season, compared to past 5 seasons, along with the covid spread … all shown in percentages (#cases/ #tests) as per standard procedure. They have not chosen to show the relevant analysis, however.

    I think the relevant analysis will upset the narrative by indicating that many flu deaths are being mis-coded as covid deaths.
    Minnesota state senator, who is also a doctor, provided copy of guidance for coding that encourages over-coding. see …. the gateway pundit
    “Senator Dr. Scott Jensen: Right now Medicare is determining that if you have a COVID-19 admission to the hospital you get $13,000. If that COVID-19 patient goes on a ventilator you get $39,000, three times as much. Nobody can tell me after 35 years in the world of medicine that sometimes those kinds of things impact on what we do. “

    • Notice this is Key Updates for Week 13, ending March 28, 2020. CV deaths just were starting to kick in at the end of this period.

      We won’t know how many flu deaths are miscoded until probably mid to late May. However, we are now past the peak flu season, which is most commonly February, so probably a great many of flu deaths going forward will be miscoded. Remember Trump’s “It will be like a miracle and all go away by April.” That’s because the flu season is mostly over.

      https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

      • What great insights into the process would make you say this?

        “….so probably a great many of flu deaths going forward will be miscoded.”

        Or are you girding your loins for the future so you have an excuse when your view is proven wrong?

    • Two other reasons for excessive use of ventilators have been mentioned.

      The more likely one is due to protocols. The protocol is to put person on ventilator if his blood oxygen level drops to threshold level. The CDC weekly report indicates excess of panicked people coming to hospital with flu symptoms. I am guessing that panic might affect the blood oxygen level…. does anyone have journal articles reporting clinical symptoms from mass hysteria? There are field reports that people with covid have low blood oxygen metric but without the physical symptoms…. so maybe the old protocol is wrong for them, and less invasive treatment is enough.

      The death rate for people on ventilator was over 80% in past.
      For the ones who survive the prolonged heavy sedation (to stop their breathing against the ventilator) and intubation with infection risk, many have permanent cognitive damage and lung damage. So, there is potential vast tragedy here due to ventilator overuse/medical error (as there was for the 1918 flu epidemic due to aspirin poisoning). We already know that medical error causes at least 250,000 deaths annually in the USA, but I think that is much under-reported. The death due to unnecessary use of ventilator, plus the usual medical errors causing over 10% of annual USA deaths, is another cause of inflated covid death rate, in addition to mis-coding.

      • This video describes how a state-of-the-art medical device like a ventilator is designed and built. The video explains the complexity of the device and how it interfaces with the patient (many sensors) and the medical operator.
        There is a good discussion on the bio-mechanical function of our lungs and why these machines can kill you if not operated correctly. Which brings up another unknown variable, operator error.

        I have a Do Not Resuscitate in my advanced directive so maybe someone else will benefit from my choice.

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