Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Rates of sea level rise along the N. American E. Coast have decelerated in recent decades (5 of 6). SLR rates were “only slightly lower” in the 1700s. Modern sea level rise rates are thus “not necessarily symptomatic of anthropogenic forcing”. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.10

Deep-reaching acceleration o global mean ocean circulation over the past two decades advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/6/ea

Predominant regional biophysical cooling from recent land cover changes in Europe nature.com/articles/s4146

Are UK floods becoming worse due to climate change? |j.mp/2HZAoQh

The incredible lightness of water vapor. A negative water vapor feedback [link]

Towards better understanding of the Ocean Carbon sink of the Southern Ocean [link]

Compound flood potential from river discharge and storm surge extremes at the global scale  bit.ly/32xrOBE

Natural halogens buffer tropospheric ozone in a changing climate go.nature.com/2w6CVWg

On a regional level, aerosols could have a greater effect on extreme winter weather than greenhouse gases. [link]

The observed behavior of climatic complexity could be explained by the changes in cloud amount, and we research that possibility by investigating its evolution from a complexity perspective using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). [link]

Tropical forests losing their ability to remove carbon from the atmosphere [link]

reconstruction and re-evaluation of historical drought in the British Irish Isles since 1748, and the forgotten drought of 1765-1768. [link]

Geologic Heat Linked To East Coast Ocean Warming Trend [link]

Evaluating global multi-model ensemble tropical cyclone track probability forecasts (doi.org/10.1002/qj.3712)

Rapid Loss of CO2 From the South Pacific Ocean During the Last Glacial Termination [link]

Jet stream is not getting ‘wavier’ despite Arctic warming [link]

Mathematicians unravel the patterned chaos of turbulence in a universal law [link]

30 years of the iron hypothesis of ice ages [link]

destabilizing natural methane reserves is not a big climate risk, because the timescales are long and most gets oxidized before reaching the atmosphere. [link]

Decades of research have deepened scientists’ understanding of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and its importance in Earth’s #climate system. [link]

Soil and soil CO2 magnify greenhouse effect [link]

Reviews and syntheses: The mechanisms underlying carbon storage in soil biogeosciences-discuss.net/bg-2020-49/

It turns out our estimates of how much methane comes from natural fossil leaks (seepage, mud volcanoes, etc.) might be much lower than we thought. [link]  

Long-term drought reconstruction in India [link]

aerosol-induced cooling benefitted developing countries in warm climates in terms of economic impact, but harmed high-latitude developed countries. go.nature.com/2P4ThVY

New evidence points to asteroid as cause of dinosaur extinction [link]

Climate models overestimate Arctic warming [link]

Livestock contributed to ~23% of the total warming of 0.81°C from all sources from 1850 to 2010, despite agriculture directly contributing only 10–12% of global GHG emissions. The effects of CH₄ only last decades, but only decay if we stop emitting it! onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111

Policy & technology

Floridians would have been spared $480 million in property damage from Hurricane Irma if the state’s coastal wetlands hadn’t shrunk. [link]

Roger Pielke Jr:  “Good News And Bad News As Carbon Dioxide Emissions Grow More Slowly Than Models Predict” [link]

A big shift from corporate data centers to cloud computing seems to have dramatically reduced the energy and carbon footprint of data processing [link]

How economic models treat innovation may be just as important as their assumptions about climate damages [link]

Ships could be powered by ammonia within decade [link]

Seven strategies for protecting rainforests [link]

“IPCC baseline scenarios over-project CO2 emissions and economic growth.” osf.io/preprints/soca

The coming avocado politics:  Embracing a catastrophic view of climate risk is unlikely to provoke progressive responses on the Right, but rather the opposite [link]

Minireservoirs could save farmers with sandy soils [link]

“Sequestering soil carbon effectively requires an understanding of how particulate organic matter & mineral-associated organic matter work, how human actions affect them, and how to build up both types to meet our planet’s climate and food security needs.” theconversation.com/soil-carbon-is

Damaging impact of warming moderated by migration of rainfed crops [link]

The next low-carbon energy source? It might be trash [link]

Why Venice is actually a textbook case for flood prevention phys.org/news/2020-01-v

explore scenario extremes as a way of understanding and preparing for an unknowable future: rdcu.be/b1OcE

The ‘business as usual’ story is misleading [link]

Finland will be home to the first-ever deep geological repository for spent #nuclear fuel. Other countries such as Canada, France, Sweden, and Switzerland are also making progress on facilities: bit.ly/2XFBW7B

Schellenberger:  If they are so alarmed by climate change, why are they so opposed to nuclear? [link]

Forecasting volcanic eruptions with Artificial Intelligence [link]

Small changes in flight routes and altitude could get rid of most of the climatic impacts of contrails immediately. [link]

About science & scientists

Freeman Dyson: In Memoriam [link]

Tired of debates that go nowhere? Talk different [link]

Trump might do something genuinely good for science [link]

Why do the things that are unlikely to harm us get the most attention? [link]

Moral pollution in place of reasoned critique [link]

The scientific paper is outdated. [link]

Another unjustified firing of a tenure-track professor [link]

Back to the future: how we became victims of our own success [link]

Scientists are much more open but less agreeable than people in other professions. [link]

What is dark matter?  Even the best theories are crumbling [link]

181 responses to “Week in review – science edition

  1. “The incredible lightness of water vapor. A negative water vapor feedback [link]”

    So much for baseless fears about runaway global warming?

    • A fun little paper with some amusing math. Let me see if I have got this right. Overturning circulation – such as in Hadley Cells – is enhanced in a warmer world due to the water vapour buoyancy effect. Such that atmospheric temps in the clear sky zones increase and OLR increases by in the order of 1.1 W/m2 per K. Indeed – satellites show cooling in IR and warming in SW – but the relative importance of this mechanism in complex and dynamic net planetary energy dynamics is unknown.

      Runaway warming was never an option due to the Planck feedback. But this doesn’t seem to preclude warmer temps of some 12 K due to cloud and other feedbacks due entirely to abruptly changing internal dynamics. Or 5 k cooler depending on which of the many internal mechanisms dominate in emergent climate states. 😊

      • i.e./e.g.– depending on whether variation is, weather or weather plus the effect of some mystical properties attributed to CO2 that are not readily observable in nature (although perhaps, hypothesized, by Western science)…

      • Depends on whether you are interested in physical systems and natural sciences or some oddball political polemic.

      • So far, only the Left has turned concern about the weather into a controversial topic that is best informed by one’s ideology and usefulness for propaganda, profiteering and political power.

    • I commented strictly on this little bit of science and put it into the context of broader domain knowledge. To be met with hand waving about motivated hypotheses not found in nature. Conservatives are not in the right policy ballpark – and skeptic science is a complete joke. As indeed is most of what is found on blogs or in the popular press that you complain so much and so ineffectually about.

      I have discussed economic freedom, rational market management and pragmatic responses endlessly and recently. Economic freedom pays for and releases the human creative potential to devise pragmatic responses. A multi-gas and aerosol strategy – CFC’s, nitrous oxides, methane, black carbon and sulfate. Ongoing decreases in carbon intensity and increases in efficiency and productivity. And technical innovation across sectors – energy, transport, industry, residential and agriculture and forestry. Conserving and restoring soil on agricultural land. Keep cows and sequester all our emissions while enhancing food security and flood and drought mitigation. Reclaim deserts, conserve and restore savanna, open woodland, forests and wetlands. As well as building resilience to weather extremes. This is more popular and centrist than either extreme.

      • An example of willfull ignorance is a refusal to acknowledge global warming is a Left versus right issue and therefore, political science not natural science…

      • Perhaps in your binary world. The extremes of left and right in the climate war are numerically – and thus politically – insignificant. And then again interpreting this and other little bits of science – isolated from the body of science – from a political perspective is a problematic cultural malaise.

      • Science tells us, that, “the temperature in 2100 depends greatly on the combination of both effects,” i.e., “an almost linear increase of about +0.5°C/100 years and a multi-decadal oscillation of amplitude 0.2°C.” Projections of more is religious or ideologically-biased dogma or simple charlatanism.

      • Science tells us that the world is nonlinear with multiple equilibria and abrupt transitions. Driven – just like those multidecadal climate shifts – by internal variability at all scales. Predictability – hydrology, biology or temperature – is beyond the capacity of science at present. Surprises – as they say – are inevitable.

        The pragmatic responses I outlined above do not rely on temperature projection but have diverse justifications independent of climate change in any direction. They moreover – have the virtue of appealing to the broad global middle ground.

      • Even Chinese scientists apparently are a good deal more pragmatic these days than what we have come to expect from what passes for government-funded research coming out of Western universities. Yang and Lu (study) found that global warming during the 1961-2012 period was linked to helping preserve China’s drylands.

        “This study provides a preliminary estimation of recent climate changes on wind erosion risk in China’s drylands region, indicating an obvious decrease in the wind erosion climatic erosivity…”

      • “Water erosion causes environmental degradation (Lee and Heo, 2011; Xin et al., 2011) and is affected by natural and human factors involved in climate, terrain, soil, land use and management. During the past decades, the global and regional climate has shown various changes (IPCC, 2013). For precipitation, various changes have been observed in the amount, frequency and intensity (Back et al., 2011; Petkovšek and Mikoš, 2004). These changes influence erosivity of rainfall, and
        thus water erosion (Bazzano et al., 2010; Bonilla and Vidal, 2011; Busnelli et al., 2006). In the context of climate change, the effect of altered rainfall characteristics on soil erosion is one of the main concerns of soil conservation studies (Angulo-Martinez and Begueria, 2009).” Yang and Liu 2015

        You are being a ridiculous zealot.

      • “research finds progressives risk averse, biased toward control of their environment, while conservatives tolerate risk, partial toward greater freedom — the recognition of which does not overcome the progressive insistence that relativity explains all motion [despite quantum mechanics] or that global warming is settled science.” ~‘The Cultural Cognition Project,’ Yale University

      • Relativity explains motion? Despite quantum mechanics? Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics imply a settled climate science? Oddball science memes indeed.

        “When I say that the conservative lacks principles, I do not mean to suggest that he lacks moral conviction. The typical conservative is indeed usually a man of very strong moral convictions. What I mean is that he has no political principles which enable him to work with people whose moral values differ from his own for a political order in which both can obey their convictions. It is the recognition of such principles that permits the coexistence of different sets of values that makes it possible to build a peaceful society with a minimum of force. The acceptance of such principles means that we agree to tolerate much that we dislike. There are many values of the conservative which appeal to me more than those of the socialists; yet for a liberal the importance he personally attaches to specific goals is no sufficient justification for forcing others to serve them.” Hayek

        And as politically short sighted and pointless as it is poorly understood physics.

      • Science involves honor and integrity not deference to superstition.

      • Gee – and I though it had to do with hypothesis, analysis and synthesis. Silly me.

      • Silly indeed– Michael Mann’s ‘hockey stick’ being just one example of the sacrifice of truth and honesty on the altar of Leftist ideology.

        “My whole involvement has always been driven by concerns about the corruption of science. Like many people I was dragged into this by the Hockey Stick. The Hockey Stick is an extraordinary claim which requires extraordinary evidence, so I started reading round the subject. And it soon became clear that the first extraordinary thing about the evidence for the Hockey Stick was how extraordinarily weak it was, and the second extraordinary thing was how desperate its defenders were to hide this fact. The Hockey Stick is obviously wrong. Climategate 2011 shows that even many of its most outspoken public defenders know it is obviously wrong. And yet it goes on being published and defended year after year. Do I expect you to publicly denounce the Hockey Stick as obvious drivel? Well yes, that’s what you should do. It is the job of scientists of integrity to expose pathological science. It is a litmus test of whether climate scientists are prepared to stand up against the bullying defenders of pathology in their midst. (Jonathan Jones)

      • You are quoting someone on a 20 year old storm in a teacup. Science is self correcting as they say.


  2. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Cold air from the north now flows to the east and west coast of North America.

  3. The link for “Mathematicians unravel the patterned chaos of turbulence in a universal law” is a repeat link of the immediately preceding “Jet stream is not getting ‘wavier’ despite Arctic warming”. This Eureka Alert link is one that works better for the Mathematicians…topic and contains links to four underlying papers:

  4. I have noticed the warm SST anomaly off the East Coast on the NOAA maps for several years. Going back more than a decade it appears not to have much of a seasonal or inter annual variability. The current warm area off the East Coast of Japan at the same latitude shows some of the same characteristics, although over the years it seems to have moved from west of the islands to the east.
    I don’t know if Kamis’ supposition is correct in attributing it to geological dynamics, but I’m glad he is investigating something I’ve wondered about for a long time.

    • Geoff Sherrington

      Because thee are maps of anomalies, can you be sure that the said persistent red blob is not due to an abnormally cool event in the reference period? Geoff S

      • Hi Geoff

        No, I can’t be sure. Several years ago I noticed that even going back years before that there was a consistent warm anomaly. Kamis went back to 1997, as did I, and found the same thing. Of course, before Argo who knows what was there. What is equally fascinating to me is that on the same latitude near Japan there has been a warm anomaly for much of the same period.

        It’s only been a question for me. Kamis seems to have gone another step.

      • http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1970/plot/hadsst3nh/from:1970/plot/hadsst3sh/from:1970

        Note the anomalous behavior starting in 2003 (coincident with argo coming on line). If all the loti data sets include argo, then what does that tell you about them?

  5. The link to “Climate models overestimate Arctic warming” does not seem to work. Is this the article that is the link is supposed to go to?


  6. Livestock contributed to ~23% of the total warming of 0.81°C from all sources from 1850 to 2010,

    Then it’s good news for the pulanet that 55,000 livestock have been killed by global warming (in the form of freezing to death) in Mongolia:


    Apparently sparrows also cause global warming, so we should follow the lead of Chairman Mao and oblige citizens to cull all the sparrows. Maybe that would help the insects as well.

    Who’s going to tell David Attenborough that all animals and plants are bad. Instead of filming them they should all be destroyed. For the pulanet.

  7. If climate and climate change are really such a big deal, then it seems incomprehensible that globally the number of weather recording stations is decreasing. Station number continues it’s precipitous decline since its peak in the Cold War. Apparently the Soviet threat was a stronger reason to have weather stations than there being only 12 years to avert climate extinction. Whatever that means.

    Surely is climate were a real issue and not just a pretext for socioeconomic engineering, then the first logical response would be more weather stations? Bit instead they get less.

    Still, the great and the good who rule over us are no doubt brilliant people who have intelligent and compelling answers to such questions as well as very substantial Swiss bank accounts.

  8. Here we go again. It’s time to genetically engineer coral (& other species) to survive a more toxic and warmer climate. Doesn’t matter if we directly caused this we should do it because we have the technology. Cost is just a distraction, money and debt are just synthetic and cultural anachronisms.

    “The Great Barrier Reef is likely in the middle of “its most widespread coral bleaching event in recent years,” according to NOAA.

    The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority said that as of March 5, it has collected 250 sightings of coral reef bleaching in the last month through its Eye on the Reef program.

    The reports span “across the Great Barrier, stretching from the northern part of the reef all the way to the southern portion of the reef,” says coral reef scientist Dr. Kim Cobb of the Georgia Institute of Technology.

    This bleaching event is expected to be less severe than recent events in 2016 and 2017, but more widespread.”

    I would give this idea some serious consideration.

    “Aquatic hypoxia can be a serious problem, producing oxygen-depleted “dead zones” in lakes or seas. New research suggests that a process known as downwelling may help keep those zones from forming – although it wouldn’t be a cheap solution.

    According to the team’s calculations, using downwelling to treat the dead zones that occur annually in Chesapeake Bay would cost somewhere between US$4 million and $47 million – that figure climbs to a range of $26 million to $263 million for use on the dead zones in the Gulf of Mexico.”

    With negative interest long term debt it pays for itself!

  9. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Anomalies of the average wind speed in the stratosphere indicate an extremely strong, as for March, stratospheric polar vortex. Hence the very low temperature above the 80th parallel.

  10. morpheusonacid

    The article on UK flood states “put simply, a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture.”. God help us in summer then? I suppose the alarmists will be telling that as temperatures get even higher we get droughts. Put simply, it is more complex.

  11. Lance Wallace

    “At CO2 concentrations beyond four times the preindustrial value, the climate sensitivity decreases to nearly zero”

    This Drotos .. Bjorn Stevens article says for their model at present CO2 levels, the sensitivity is pretty constant at 2K (not the 3.2 CMIP5 or higher (CMIP6) level). That seems a very relevant takeaway.

  12. “New evidence points to asteroid as cause of dinosaur extinction [link]”. This is well established.

    PNAS paper De Palma et al. 2019 “A seismically induced onshore surge deposit at the KPg boundary, North Dakota” https://www.pnas.org/content/116/17/8190 says:

    The Chicxulub impact played a crucial role in the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction. However the earliest postimpact effects, critical to fully decode the profound influence on Earth’s biota, are poorly understood due to a lack of high-temporal-resolution contemporaneous deposits. The Tanis site, which preserves a rapidly deposited, ejecta-bearing bed in the Hell Creek Formation, helps to resolve that long-standing deficit. Emplaced immediately (minutes to hours) after impact, Tanis provides a postimpact “snapshot,” including ejecta accretion and faunal mass death, advancing our understanding of the immediate effects of the Chicxulub impact. Moreover, we demonstrate that the depositional event, calculated to have coincided with the arrival of seismic waves from Chicxulub, likely resulted from a seismically coupled local seiche.”

    The New Yorker:
    “https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/04/08/the-day-the-dinosaurs-died” https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/04/08/the-day-the-dinosaurs-died

  13. I am a fan of Pielke Jr., but his article strikes me as kind of bizarre!

    He starts out with his pro forma “don’t slap me upside the head anymore” disclaimer:

    “There should be no question by now that carbon dioxide emissions cause global warming and that more aggressive policy is needed to do more to rein in emissions. The importance of mitigation and adaptation policies means that in weighing our options it is important that policymakers have the most accurate data and models at their disposal. As our knowledge evolves so too must our understandings. As economist John Maynard Keynes quipped: “When the facts change, I change my mind.””

    He then proceeds to show that emissions have been far less than predicted by the vast majority of IPCC scenarios. Doesn’t this call into question “the need to do more to rein in emissions”, at least wrt global warming? Doesn’t this mean that the potential for climate doom in our future is substantially less than the hype suggests?

    Somebody help me out.

    • “While economists disagree about the potential for global growth to 2100 …” No self-respecting economist would make forecasts for 2100. Indeed, when I was involved in modelling, e.g., the impact of alternative policies, we would look only ten years ahead; and we would not make forecasts. We’d compare model outcomes between different policies as a guide to choice, but we would not say that the modelling results were forecasts, only that they were a compartison of how each option might fare.

      In the alleged CAGW context, I’ve argued for almost twenty years that the future is uncertain, it will always surprise us, and that we should adopt policies which maximise our capacity to deal with whatever future befalls rather than policies designed to mitigate against one possible – but also unpredictable and not necessarily net harmful – issue. We’ve had the GFC in that time and now the coronavirus.

  14. Astrophysicists Fritz Zwicky and Vera Rubin first found evidence for dark matter from anomalies in speeds of galactic movement and arm rotation respectively.

    According to Matt O’Dowd of the PBS Space-time channel, the “latest failure to detect dark matter may prove the existence of dark matter”

    [sounds like this guy should be a climate scientist.]

    Dark matter was inferred by the mass distributions – both bright and dark – of 2 colliding galaxies in the Bullet Cluster. Essentially the dark matter of both galaxies passed through the collision site without being stopped, unlike the gas clouds of each galaxy. This is the ghost-like behaviour that would be expected of dark matter.

    However more recently, small ultra diffuse galaxies have been found by the team of Peter Van Dokkum of Yale which lack dark matter – whose gravitational behaviour is wholly explained by their visible mass – which is highly unusual.

    Ironically the discovery of galaxies without dark matter, unlike “normal” galaxies with ~400 x more dark than bright matter – May strengthen the case for the existence of dark matter. But they still don’t know what it is, of course.

  15. “Increasing organic carbon stocks in agricultural soils has emerged as an effective means to improve soils and increase 25 plant productivity, delay the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide and the rate of climate change, while maintaining the quality of downstream ecosystems. The recent spotlight of the climate change issue has considerably renewed scientific interest on
    soil organic carbon, which is now seen as a main compartment of the global C cycle, thus providing opportunities for mitigation. In this context, the “4 per 1000 initiative: soils for food security and climate” was launched in 2015. Considering that the total amount of organic carbon in soils at the global scale is about 2400 Gt of C, and that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are about 9.4 Gt C per year, a simple calculation suggests that an annual 4 per 1000 increase in the soil C stock could theoretically offset annual emissions (2400*0.04=9.6) (Minasny et al., 2017).” https://www.biogeosciences-discuss.net/bg-2020-49/bg-2020-49.pdf

    We should think of it as conserving and restoring natural levels of soil carbon in agricultural land especially rather than creating a new store. In concert with reclaiming desert and restoring savanna, woodland, forest and wetlands. This is a critical project for humanity this century for many reasons.

    Grazing management is a big part of effective CO2 mitigation strategy.

    • Robert – this new modelling of CO2 climate effects, this time period including the ocean – seems to fit in with your thoughts on bifurcations and chaotic tipping points:

      At CO2 concentrations beyond four times the preindustrial value, the climate sensitivity decreases to nearly zero as a result of episodic global cooling events as large as 10 K. A self-amplifying cloud feedback mechanism cools the climate upon warming saturation.


    • Geoff Sherrington

      Once you have raised the soil carbon level, how do you propose to keep it high when Nature is likely to want to bring it down again to the long-term, unaltered level of land nearby.
      It is not the same logic, just similar, to saying that we can cool the sea temperature at the Barrier Reef by some means, then expect it to stay there despite what Nature does.
      Geoff S

      • The objective of million of farmers worldwide is to conserve and restore soil carbon on agricultural land though such things as diverse cover crops and intense rotational grazing. It mimics natural processes while increasing production and water infiltration and retention while reducing input costs.

        Specious reasoning founded on ignorance misses the point yet again.

  16. Regarding “The Scientific Paper is outdated” here is a short review I wrote for the Open Science Initiative listserv:

    Every argument I have seen for going “beyond” the journal article suffers from the same glaring flaw, namely the beyond takes a great deal more time and skill than simply writing stuff down. As such it robs the research, to pay for communication, which is a bad deal. This case is extreme in that regard. It is also strange in that it seems to assume that science is primarily computational, rather than rational.

    Mind you I have my own candidate for going beyond the article — the issue tree diagram. It presents the same set of atomic ideas, while also showing how these fit together. But the difference in the time and skill required, between the article and the issue tree, is like the difference between a crude sketch and an engineering drawing. Journal articles do not need that precision.

    Writing is a 6000 year old technology, so it is very simple. Even better (or worse), it is based on speaking, which is as old as humanness itself. It is unlikely that a viable alternative exists or can be found.

  17. Mathematicians unravel the patterned chaos of turbulence in a universal law. The link seems to point to the previous article about the jet stream.

  18. “Rates of sea level rise along the N. American E. Coast have decelerated in recent decades (5 of 6). SLR rates were “only slightly lower” in the 1700s. Modern sea level rise rates are thus “not necessarily symptomatic of anthropogenic forcing”.”

    In the sea level rise issue, the relevant variable is GMSL not localized changes. Please see Landererr 2007. “A  consideration in the study of sea level rise is the complexity of ocean dynamics that creates spatial and temporal differences that are natural and therefore have no interpretation in terms of an external or artificial cause. AGW does not force SLR at the same rate everywhere. Rather, there are spatial variations of SLR superimposed on a global average rise. These variations are forced by ocean circulations, variations in temperature and salinity, and by mass re-distributions, changing gravity, and the Earth’s rotation and shape. These effects form unique spatial and temporal patterns in SLR that appear to be random” (Landerer, F. (2007). Regional dynamic and steric sea level change in response to the IPCC-A1B scenario. J. Phys. Oceanography, 37, 296–312 (2007).

    Also acceleration does not prove anthropogenic cause.
    Two links below



  19. “Are UK floods becoming worse due to climate change? |http://j.mp/2HZAoQh”

    There have been high profile Event Attribution studies by climate scientists that have shown a causal connection between AGW climate change and floods in England and Wales


    More about post hoc after the fact attribution of events

  20. “Tropical forests losing their ability to remove carbon from the atmosphere [link]”

    Maybe so, but it is not really a “loss”, it’s just that the boreal forests are stealing from the tropical forests

    Pls see the very first item in this list ….
    “Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. “

  21. “Climate models overestimate Arctic warming [link]”
    The link is dead

  22. Livestock contributed to ~23% of the total warming of 0.81°C from all sources from 1850 to 2010, despite agriculture directly contributing only 10–12% of global GHG emissions. The effects of CH₄ only last decades, but only decay if we stop emitting it! https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.13975…

    Livestock is not an industrial economy issue

  23. Roger Pielke Jr: “Good News And Bad News As Carbon Dioxide Emissions Grow More Slowly Than Models Predict” [link]

    That’s because models contain a cause and effect relationship not found in the data



  24. Geologic Heat Linked To East Coast Ocean Warming Trend [link]

    The amount of heat involved and its peculiar distribution implies sources of heat other than the atmosphere as argued here:

  25. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Italians are very honest in statistics. They do not pretend that age and other diseases led to the death of patients. They do a sufficient number of tests.
    March 7 (GMT):
    1,247 new cases and 36 new deaths in Italy [source]
    Percentage of deaths by age group:
    90+ years old: 6% of deaths
    80 – 89 years old: 42% of deaths
    70 – 79 years old: 35% of deaths
    60 – 69years old: 16% of deaths
    – Among the 5,061 active cases, 3,218 (55%) are hospitalized, 567 of which (representing 11% of active cases) are in intensive care
    – Among the 822 closed cases, 589 (72%) have recovered, 233 (28%) have died
    Current temperature in Europe.

    In Western Europe it is mostly cloudy.

    • – Among the 822 closed cases, 589 (72%) have recovered, 233 (28%) have died

      That may just be an artifact of data collection. Here’s a nifty little site that has the basic global stats:


      Near the top is the data for closed cases. Click on graph and you can readily see the death rate in a hyperbolic curve. A month or so ago, the rate of death was near 50%(!), but has been in a free fall ever since. At the end of the day, it should not surprise us if the rate is well below 1%. (not much different than the flu) It seems that society’s main concern is the economy tilting into a recession. This, of course, in no small part because the fed has the economy running too slow. (wizard of oz* please take note!)

      *robert, just a friendly jab… always delighted to see (and read) you here at climate, etc. now back to my self imposed weekend blogging quarantine.

  26. Lance Wallace

    DPY 6629

    Your comment is correct, the link for the “Mathematicians unravel the patterned chaos of turbulence in a universal law” should have been to a recent article in Quanta Magazine.

    The link below may not work but I got to the article by putting

    Mathematicians unravel the patterned chaos of turbulence in a universal law into my search engine.


  27. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The increase in temperature in the lower stratosphere results from the increase in ionization in these layers during very low solar activity (solar minimum).
    The highest rate of carbon-14 production takes place at altitudes of 9 to 15 km (30,000 to 49,000 ft) and at high geomagnetic latitudes.
    Vertical soundings of the atmospheric ion production rate have been obtained from Geiger counters integrated with conventional meteorological radiosondes. In launches made from Reading (UK) during 20132014, the RegenerPfotzer ionisation maximum was at an altitude equivalent to a pressure of (63.12.4) hPa, or, expressed in terms of the local air density, (0.1010.005) kg m−3.
    An increase in temperature in the lower stratosphere can cause an increase in water vapor in the stratosphere, which explains such a rapid increase in temperature in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere.

    The molar mass of water vapor is much less than that of dry air. This makes a moist parcel lighter than a dry parcel of the same temperature and pressure. This effect is referred to as the vapor buoyancy effect and has often been overlooked in climate studies.
    In January and February 2020 ionizing radiation in the lower stratosphere was maximum in this solar ycle.

  28. UK-Weather Lass-In-Earnest

    If the British Isles are to face a fossil fuel free future then the RMetS study of historic rainfall deficits and droughts is an invaluable piece of research. It focuses on an exceptional drought from 1765 to 1768 as a worst case scenario in the past 250 years or so, and is a reminder as to how extreme weather can be. Hydro is a valuable renewable baseload source but does need back-up from other sources of baseload power and currently only a nuclear option is a carbon free source.

    This is one of the more valuable pieces of the climate puzzle, IMO, and I hope the authors inspire others to go back even further in time to uncover what our Islands were like when the climate was altogether different to what it is now.

    My own research has uncovered anecdotes like a fordable Thames at Putney during the Roman occupation. There is so much to be learned from historical records and, whilst painstaking, they may be much more useful than expensive computer models that provide people with jobs and research projects but not much else.

    • Ukweather lass

      I have a very extensive library of weather records collected over the last 20 years from a variety of sources. These include cathedral records, manorial estate records, ( i have had some translated from Latin) those from monasteries and many from the archives of such as the met office.

      Whilst my records go back 2000 years they roughly divide into two. those covering the Roman occupation are generally quite good if sparse. there are very few records up to the 11th century although battles are a good source.

      The domesday book era is also good but we run into a lot of superstition and religions references who see events as a sign from god and write the record accordingly.

      The 14th century onwards tends to be pretty good although there are a number of duplications. Have you read ‘climate and weather’ by John Kington which is pretty comprehensive?

      As the Met office has very firmly told me, there is no money or appetite for primary research into old records. That era passed with Hubert Lamb and Phil Jones. We tend to go back to the mid Victorian era as far as the Met office goes.


      • Hi Tony.

        I can’t vouch for anything about the provenance of this article but I thought it was interesting.


      • ceresco kid

        Very interesting. Whilst we had some bitter cold winters during that period we also had some scorching hot summers including 1665 and 1666 the latter of which was directly responsible for the great fire of London.

        The library at the Scott Polar institute in Cambridge is littered with a variety of records claiming ice free conditions in the arctic, of which the best known one is that in 1818 that caused the Royal Society to put together a scientific expedition to investigate it

        Of course just because it is hot in Europe does not mean it will be hot in the Arctic but fine warm conditions are much more likely to bring the great fishing fleets to chase their prey north than cold harsh conditions.

        I have made a note of the dates and will investigate further.


      • Ceresco kid

        those dates in the article are especially interesting as they exactly coincide with very hot summers in Europe as well as several very mild winters

        “We note that Parliament declared a ‘climate emergency’ during the reign of Charles 2nd in 1661, so History repeats itself exactly, as Parliament declared one in 2019!


        “The Fast to be observed in Westm. Abbey, and the Bp. of St. David’s to preach.
        “Whereas His Majesty hath been pleased, by Proclamation, upon the Unseasonableness of the Weather, to command a general and public Fast, to be religiously and solemnly kept, within the Cities of London and Westm. and Places adjacent: , That the Lord Bishop of St. David’s is hereby desired to take the Pains upon him, to preach before the Lords of Parliament, on Wednesday the Fifteenth Day of this Instant January in the Forenoon, in the Abbey Church of Westm. being the accustomed Place where their Lordships have used to meet upon the like Occasion.”

        Samuel Pepys Diary
        This morning Mr. Berkenshaw came again, and after he had examined me and taught me something in my work, he and I went to breakfast in my chamber upon a collar of brawn, and after we had eaten, asked me whether we had not committed a fault in eating to-day; telling me that it is a fast day ordered by the Parliament, to pray for more seasonable weather; it having hitherto been summer weather, (during winter) that it is, both as to warmth and every other thing, just as if it were the middle of May or June, which do threaten a plague (as all men think) to follow, for so it was almost the last winter; and the whole year after hath been a very sickly time to this day”


      • Tony, the response to climate abnormalities in 1661 and the present day are similarly nonsensical.

  29. Horrible news if true.
    Posted on Huffpost so I would would be skeptical.

    “An influential climate-denial think tank bankrolled by President Donald Trump’s far-right billionaire donors has laid off nearly a dozen staffers amid financial troubles, according to three former employees.

    The Illinois-based Heartland Institute ― which captured headlines last month for promoting a German teenager with ties to neo-Nazis as the climate denier’s alternative to acclaimed youth activist Greta Thunberg ― pink-slipped at least 10 staffers Friday, shedding what one former employee described as “more than half” the organization’s staff.

    “Heartland is broke,” Nikki Comerford, the nonprofit’s events coordinator on staff for nearly 21 years, told a former colleague in a text message, a screenshot of which HuffPost reviewed.”

    I think it’s because Trump is going Green?!
    11 dimensional checkers? Just a few days ago I saw this:

    “Trump calls for full funding for conservation program after slashing it in his budget

    President Trump on Tuesday called on Congress to fully fund a conservation program that his budget has repeatedly sought to cut.

    The Land and Water Conservation Fund (LWCF) uses oil and gas revenue to fund a variety of conservation efforts, such as securing land for parks. But Trump has suggested cutting its funding by as much as 97 percent year after year, including in his most recent budget proposal.

    “I am calling on Congress to send me a Bill that fully and permanently funds the LWCF and restores our National Parks,” Trump tweeted. “When I sign it into law, it will be HISTORIC for our beautiful public lands.”

    • They’re winning, so people have cut them off.

    • Heartland’s budget is tiny compared to Greenpeace or WWF, so they can bounce back. Besides, most important climate skepticism is done by bloggers.

    • Heartland and far-right billionaire donors are not the problem. The alarmists have had every advantage. They haven’t solved anything.

      • You have hit the nail on the head.
        The scientist are not the one who have to fix it. We are.
        When we finally come to grips with the size and scope of the problem you can bet it will be scientist teaching engineers how to build planet scale geo-engineering projects to mask the worst outcomes.

      • Water squirting boats to brighten clouds. Let’s do it. Really.

  30. Mathematicians unravel the patterned chaos of turbulence in a universal law

    The provided link is wrong (refers to wavy jet streams). Here one that I think points to the right place:


    But this is not new, Feigenbaum found the numerical keys to chaotic transition (Hopf bifurcation) half a century ago – that’s why they’re called the Feigenbaum constants:


  31. UK flood attribution:
    “However, as anthropogenic warming influences modes of ocean-atmosphere variability, such as the NAO, the increase in floods certainly reflects a combination of both.”

    That is doublethink, because rising CO2 forcing should increase positive NAO, but positive NAO cools the AMO, and the UK is drier during a colder AMO. The only river flow series they show which is long enough is the River Severn, which had greater flow during the previous warm AMO phase.

  32. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The cold front from central Canada falls in the Midwest.

  33. Pluto’s (dwarf planet) Effective Temperature calculation
    So = 1.362 W/m² (So is the Solar constant)
    Pluto’s albedo: apluto = 0.49 to 0.66 (geometric) Let’s have apluto = 0.50
    1/R² = 1/39,48² = 1/1.558 = 0,0006418

    Pluto’s sidereal rotation period is 6,38723 days
    Pluto does N = 1/6,38723 rotations/ per day

    Pluto is a nitrogen ice crust surface planet, very cratered, and Pluto’s surface solar irradiation accepting factor Φpluto = 1.
    Pluto’s surface is composed of more than 98 percent nitrogen ice.
    Pluto can be considered as a nitrogen ice crust surface planet,
    Cp.nitrogen N2 = 0,24845 cal/gr*oC

    β = 150 days*gr*oC/rotation*cal – it is the Planet Surface Solar Irradiation Absorbing-Emitting Universal Law constant
    σ = 5,67*10⁻⁸ W/m²K⁴, a Stefan-Boltzmann constant

    Surface temp….min………mean……………max
    Kelvin………….33 K……44 K (- 229 oC)….55 K

    Pluto’s effective temperature complete formula Te.pluto is:
    Te.pluto = [ Φ (1-a) So (1/R²) (β*N*cp)¹∕ ⁴ /4σ ]¹∕ ⁴
    Τe.pluto = { 1*(1-0,50)*1.362 W/m² *0,0006418*[150 *(1/6,38723)* 0,24845]¹∕ ⁴ /4*5,67*10⁻⁸ W/m²K⁴ }¹∕ ⁴ = 41,59 K

    Te.pluto = 41,59 K calculated

    Tsat.mean.pluto = 44 K (- 229 oC) measured by spacecraft


  34. The “Talk Differently” link still just doesn’t get it. For all the appearance of openness, it’s still framed as “how do I do a better job of informing you that you’re wrong.” When you aren’t.
    The insight she draws was captured in this quote from the piece: “What obligations do we, who live in a campus community, have towards people whose views we condemn or find demeaning?”
    The Yale campus community found it demeaning and condemned the view that it was okay to serve sushi in the cafeteria. A better question then would be: What obligations do we, who live in a campus community, have towards developing a more rational approach to debating whether a view is worthy of condemnation and/or is actually demeaning?
    The author, however, seems to be saying- once we’ve decided that serving sushi is worthy of condemnation because it is demeaning, how do we avoid being laughed at and angrily denounced.

  35. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Spots of the new solar cycle begin to appear in the southern solar hemisphere.

    The southern and northern solar magnetic dipoles are not in phase with each other.

  36. Climate models overestimate Arctic warming [link]

    Broken link. Can anyone provide the link?

  37. Ireneusz Palmowski

    In February 2020, the number of sunspots fell again close to zero.

    • Ireneusz Palmowski

      ENSO unchanged.
      4-month sequence of vertical temperature anomaly sections at the equator, Pacific for March 2020

  38. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Extremely low temperature in Svalbard (-14 F, -26 C)

  39. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Stationary low in the Eastern Pacific will bring heavy rainfall to California.

  40. Is there a climate equivalent of Heisenberg’s Matrix Mechanics, which by escaping the dead hand of reductionism, opened the way to true insight into quantum physics?

    Werner Heisenberg in 1925, while trying to interpret new discoveries about atomic electron orbits, took a bold and unconventional approach of building a theory strictly limited to measureable parameters, rejecting the reductionist approach of trying to build a model world view of hypothetical particles and forces operating serenely down to the smallest scale.

    Niels Bohr affirmed Heisenberg’s philosophy by asserting that what mattered in a physical system were the measurables. Only the measurables. Not imagined structures and machinations that could not be seen. Unobservable details, according to Heisenberg and Bohr, are irrelevant and meaningless.

    For a decade or so the science establishment, having achieved a 97% consensus, ignored Heisenberg and Bohr as deniers of extreme reductionism, which was (and still is) the ruling paradigm. The grail-quest continued for a detailed model of the inner workings of atoms; an all-singing all-dancing self contained model of reality with lots of moving parts.

    However early quantum theory and the origins of what would become quantum field theory, was plagued by problems that eventually would fully vindictive the approach and alternative paradigm of Heisenberg and Bohr. Infinities cropped up. Problems were especially severe regarding the atomic nucleus. Scattering experiments revealed hitherto unknown structure within protons and neutrons, but the forces necessary to explain nuclear structure ran to infinity or to values breaking space-time. Attempts to build a nuclear model from the scattering experiments failed. This forced physicists to return to the ideas of Heisenberg and Bohr.

    Heisenberg had not been idle in the meantime, and had constructed a theory that discarded the grail-quest of a model of internal nuclear structure, involving in his theory only the observed entities entering and leaving the scattering experiments. Nothing more.

    This humbling simplicity was offensive to the naturally pompous academic mind – but it worked. It denier-worked, to the enragement of the 97%. Heisenberg had formulated a scattering matrix – the S Matrix, which mapped the probabilities of all outcomes of an experimental particle collision. Heisenberg’s approach with the S Matrix was to ignore the non-observable entities and treat the measured S matrix as itself the fundamental reality.

    And Heisenberg’s method worked – spectacularly. But the full realisation of this would come a generation later, in the 1960’s and 70’s as physicists finally acknowledged a roadblock in the path of a mechanistic-reductionistic understanding or model of the nucleus. Heisenberg’s S-matrix theory was applied to the nucleus in a serious way, finally. Scientists such as Geoffrey Chew applied consistency conditions and symmetries to simply hypothesised families of nuclear particles. In combination with scattering observations. (One insight arising from this is that antimatter can be considered as matter particles travelling backward in time.)

    Quantum field theory – the reductionist approach – has of course survived and grown, and made successful predictions. However S matrix theory has led to fundamental discoveries that are not possible from QFT alone. An Italian physicist Gabrielle Veneziano used S matrix theory to study the nuclear strong force, and with brilliant intuition invoked the element of topology (based on Euler theory) and the concept of particle properties being represented by vibrational frequencies. String theory was born, from which gravity would naturally emerge, reconciling general relativity with quantum mechanics.

    Steven Hawking’s black hole Hawking radiation discovery was also arrived at via S-matrix theory, reaffirming that bottom-up reductionism is not always the most fruitful path to truth. Trust your lying eyes. Go with what you can see. Don’t make stuff up. Likewise, Princeton’s Nima Akadi-Hamed has successfully applied S matrix theory to establish a link between quantum conditions in the very earliest universe and the largest scale architecture of the universe comprising galaxy clusters and filaments. Akadi-Hamed discovered in the process the Amplituhedron. This is a topological paradigm in which space and time themselves disappear, only to arise as emergent properties of the amplituhedron. This promises a fundamentally new avenue for seamlessly understanding the universe at all scales.

    In an analogous manner, true understanding of the earth’s complex climate is going to emerge from the correct framework for interpreting observable parameters – ocean currents, water and air temperatures, forcings and oscillations, etc. Not from the pompous hubris of all-singing all-dancing computer models of climate.

  41. pochas94

    Thank you for the link to: ‘Study: Computer Models Overestimate Observed Arctic Warming’ https://climatechangedispatch.com/computer-models-observed-arctic-warming/.

    I haven’t read the cited paper yet, but paleo evidence indicates that 50 Ma ago GMST was about 9 C higher than now, the poles were around 50 C warmer and the tropics just 4 C warmer than now [1]. This suggests that the tropics to poles temperature gradient flattens as GMST increases.

    Fossil evidence indicates the polar regions were frost free during 6 months of winter. Frost intolerant palm trees and alligators lived in the Artic. Tropical rain forests existed, from pole to pole except in dry inland regions of large continents.

    This warming would be hugely beneficial for the world. It would be hugely beneficial for ecosystems, agriculture, forestry, energy consumption, health, severe weather events and productivity overall.

    [1] Scotese 2018 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324017003_Phanerozoic_Temperatures_Tropical_Mean_Annual_Temperature_TMAT_Polar_Mean_Annual_Temperature_PMAT_and_Global_Mean_Annual_Temperature_GMAT_for_the_last_540_million_years/related

    • Hyperthermals result in warming at high CO2 concentrations and marine stratcumulus feedback, high biological activity, ocean anoxia, an extinction event, CO2 drawdown and a transient cooling. It will all work out in the end.

      “Earth’s history is peppered with rapid and extreme global warming events collectively known as hyperthermals. Although none were as rapid as human-induced climate change, most are associated with major extinction events and were invariably caused by the injection of huge volumes of carbon into the ancient atmosphere. In this meeting we explore what we can learn about our possible future from these dramatic ancient events.”

      For a fuller discussion: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/toc/rsta/2018/376/2130

      Certainty in narrative form of the next 100 years – let alone the last 50 million years – is a fool’s game.

    • 35.9 Ma ago, GMST was 17.5 °C (i.e. 2.5 °C warmer than present), equator 25 °C (i.e. 1 °C less than present), North pole -2 °C, south pole -32 °C (i.e. NP = 40 °C warmer, SP = 26 °C warmer than present).

    • GMST change from 35.9 Ma ago (17.5 °C) to present (15 °C) is a change of 2.5 °C.

      If we assume that a 2.5 °C GMST increase would reproduce the equator to poles temperature gradients as they were 35.9 Ma ago (a big assumption because of the changes in the positions of the tectonic plates, continents, and ocean gateways), then the climates would change as follows:

      There would be negligible change in the tropics.
      The latitude changes and some example cities at the before and after latitudes are:

      To – From City from – City to
      38 °N 30 °N Washington, D.C. – Jackson, Florida
      38 °N 30 °N St Louis – New Orleans
      53 °N 40 °N Winnipeg, Manitoba, Ca – Kansas City
      53 °N 40 °N London, England – Valencia, Spain
      53 °N 40 °N Berlin, Germany – Southern Italy
      70 °N 50 °N Lapland, Norway – Frankfurt, Germany
      70 °N 50 °N South Victoria Is., Ca – Winnipeg Manitoba, Ca
      88 °N 60 °N North Pole – Anchorage, Alaska
      88 °N 60 °N North Pole – Oslo, Stockholm, St Petersburg
      45 °S 40 °S Pampas, Argentina – Patagonia, Argentina
      57 °S 50 °S
      70 °S 60 °S

      • Correction to the first two columns: should be “From – To” not “To – From”

      • Even neglecting the rather large confidence limits – 35.9 million years ago is an oddball comparison. I presume it is somehow to do with the mean of model projections. The Earth system is far too complex and dynamic for such simple projections.

        At the PETM there was some 4 X pre-industrial levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and alligators in the polar circle. And a mass extinction event.

      • All mass extinction events that occurred when GMST was below about 25 °C (i.e. 10 °C higher than present) were due to bolide impacts, volcanism, the consequent chemical pollution and global cooling, not global warming.

        The PETM is irrelevant to the present and relevant future centuries. Mass extinction events due to global warming that occurred when GMST was above about 3°C or 5°C higher than present are irrelevant.

      • I quoted this above from the Royal Society. There are several essays on the topic in the link provided. Lang’s impossible certainties – on the other hand – fall far short of the standards of science. Uncertainty is where I started from – both of the future and the deep past.

        ““Earth’s history is peppered with rapid and extreme global warming events collectively known as hyperthermals. Although none were as rapid as human-induced climate change, most are associated with major extinction events and were invariably caused by the injection of huge volumes of carbon into the ancient atmosphere.”

      • What mass extinction events occurred when GMST increased between 15 °C and 20 °C? When did they occur, what was the GMST range, what is the evidence?

        PETM was outside the relevant GMST range. Permian-Triassic extinction event was caused by chemical pollution from the Siberian Traps volcanism and the resulting ice age and lowering of sea levels. The main extinction event occurred in an ice age, not the global warming that followed.

      • Like I said – an increase in CO2 – insufficient to cause such warming by itself – and positive cloud feedback. Note the broad confidence limits. And you presume to know what is relevant to such precision and certainty by reference to climate sensitivity? 🤣

        “Many mass extinctions of life in the sea and on land have been attributed to geologically rapid heating, and in the case of the Permian–Triassic and others, driven by large igneous province volcanism. The Siberian Traps eruptions raised ambient temperatures to 35–40°C.” https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2017.0076

      • Evidence has not been provided of major extinction events caused by global warming when GMST was between 15 °C and 20 °C.

        GMST increased from ~26°C to ~28°C during the PETM, Hansen et al. 2013, Figure 4 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2012.0294

        The Permian–Triassic mass extinction event occurred during an ice age. GMST rose after the main extinction event.

        Baresel et al. (2017). ‘Timing of global regression and microbial bloom linked with the Permian-Triassic boundary mass extinction: implications for driving mechanisms’

        “New high-resolution U-Pb dates indicate a duration of 89 ± 38 kyr for the Permian hiatus and of 14 ± 57 kyr for the overlying Triassic microbial limestone in shallow water settings of the Nanpanjiang Basin, South China. The age and duration of the hiatus coincides with the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) and the extinction interval in the Meishan Global Stratotype Section and Point, and strongly supports a glacio-eustatic regression, which best explains the genesis of the worldwide hiatus straddling the PTB in shallow water records. In adjacent deep marine troughs, rates of sediment accumulation display a six-fold decrease across the PTB compatible with a dryer and cooler climate as indicated by terrestrial plants. Our model of the Permian-Triassic boundary mass extinction (PTBME) hinges on the synchronicity of the hiatus with the onset of the Siberian Traps volcanism. This early eruptive phase released sulfur-rich volatiles into the stratosphere, thus simultaneously eliciting a short-lived ice age responsible for the global regression and a brief but intense acidification. Abrupt cooling, shrunk habitats on shelves and acidification may all have synergistically triggered the PTBME. Subsequently, the build-up of volcanic CO2 induced a transient cool climate whose early phase saw the deposition of the microbial limestone.”

      • And we have been through this before as well. Your single reference may or may not be the correct interpretation of events in the deep past that are not analogous to the modern times. There are several articles in the Royal Society link and many more that have other explanations.

      • Peter

        The Permian–Triassic mass extinction event occurred during an ice age. GMST rose after the main extinction event.

        Baresel et al. (2017). ‘Timing of global regression and microbial bloom linked with the Permian-Triassic boundary mass extinction: implications for driving mechanisms’

        Yes indeed, since Baresel’s paper and game-changing discovery that the PT great dying was a cold event, the science media-sphere has gone deathly quiet on the subject of the PT mass extinction. Previously they had just assumed that it had to be due to warming.

      • Thanks Phil. The argument about the cause of the Permian Triassic extinction has been going on for a very long time. The Baresel paper is an excellent detailed analysis of empirical hard rock and fossil data with excellent high resolution dating. The other recent studies are mostly model studies based on assumptions – i.e. they are theory, not evidence

    • Empirical data indicates:

      35.9 Ma ago, GMST was 17.5 °C (i.e. 2.5 °C warmer than present), equator 25 °C (i.e. 1 °C less than present), North pole -2 °C, south pole -32 °C (i.e. NP = 40 °C warmer, SP = 26 °C warmer than present).

      What’s the relevance of this?

      All the sectoral impacts except sea level rise would probably be more positive in the below chart. The energy impacts are probably positive [1]. The total dashed line would probably be more positive.

      Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration has overall positive, not negative, impacts.

      [1] Lang, P.A.; Gregory, K.B. Economic impact of energy consumption change caused by global warming. Energies 2019, 12, 3575. https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/18/3575

      • This has been discussed. He takes a stab in the dark at one potential warming increase, fabricates futures around this and neglects entirely hydrology and ecology.

      • and neglects entirely hydrology and ecology

        As well, sneaky pete continues to ignore the stabilizing effects of goldilocks monetary policy. (if the fed is incapable of affecting the economy, then why are they bothering to drop rates in the face of coronavirus?)

      • Well done, Peter. As usual, Elly neglects data in devotion of theory.

      • And as usual Jimmy can’t tell the difference.

  42. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The end of March will be unusually cold in Europe.

  43. Where else can you get a 6 Sigma performance by just changing a few lines of code? You can bet we will use this power to screen for vaccines, speed up genetic engineering research and improve climate and weather models.
    Of course this is what they worry about when they talk about the AI singularity too. The rate of change could far out strip our ability to adapt, just like climate change is doing to the whole biosphere.

    “Deep Learning Accelerates Scientific Simulations up to Two Billion Times”
    “The research team used DENSE to build emulators for 10 different simulation cases from fields such as:
    high-energy-density physics
    fusion energy science
    climate science
    earth science

    Training data was gathered by running each simulator 14,000 times with random input data, except for two simulators that take hundreds or thousands of CPU-hours to run; for these two, less than 1,000 data points were gathered. The team found that the emulator output “generally matches closely” to the simulator output, even for the two cases with limited training data. The emulators ran much faster as well; for simulations that run in “minutes to days,” the emulators can run in “milliseconds to a few seconds.” DENSE also outperformed other non-neural network emulators, such as random forests, or manually-designed neural networks.”

  44. The
    288 K – 255 K = Δ 33°C difference does not exist.

    Earth’s Without-Atmosphere Effective Temperature Complete Formula Te.earth is:
    Te.earth = [ Φ (1-a) So (β*N*cp)¹∕⁴ /4σ ]¹∕⁴

    Let’s calculate:

    Τe.earth = [0,47(1-0,30)1.362 W/m²(150 days*gr*oC/rotation*cal *1rotations/day*1 cal/gr*oC)¹∕⁴ /4*5,67*10⁻⁸ W/m²K⁴]¹∕⁴ =
    Τe.earth = [0,47(1-0,30)1.362 W/m²(150*1*1)¹∕⁴ /4*5,67*10⁻⁸W/m²K⁴]¹∕⁴ = 288,36 K

    Te.earth = 288,36 Κ is the calculated
    And we compare it with the
    Tsat.mean.earth = 288 K, measured by satellites.

    Those two temperatures, the calculated one, and the measured by satellites are almost identical.

    The conclusion is:
    Tsat.mean.earth – Te.earth = 288 K – 255 K = Δ 33°C
    difference does not exist.


  45. explore scenario extremes as a way of understanding and preparing for an unknowable future: https://rdcu.be/b1OcE

    Is climate change settled science?
    Heisenberg’s uncertain.


  46. Dr. Curry, thank you for posting the Covanta/waste-to-energy article. And, as always, I enjoyed many of the others, and the comments.

  47. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro.

    • Thanks.
      A whole lot of brain power is working to find solutions to this pandemic.

      • Looking for good information on the pandemic?
        “In one scheme, an interactive dashboard of Coronavirus infections and deaths produced by Johns Hopkins University is being used in malicious Web sites (and possibly spam emails) to spread password-stealing malware.

        Late last month, a member of several Russian language cybercrime forums began selling a digital Coronavirus infection kit that uses the Hopkins interactive map as part of a Java-based malware deployment scheme. The kit costs $200 if the buyer already has a Java code signing certificate, and $700 if the buyer wishes to just use the seller’s certificate.”

        Watch out for Russian hackers:

    • Remdesivir is an antiviral that messes with RNA / DNA replication so there could be a risk of birth defects if taken during pregnancy. So caution is needed in its use. But I guess it’s OK for oldies like us – and Tom Hanks.

      • Curious George

        I looked up remdesivir’s side effects. None known. The compound has not been clinically tested.

    • Ireneusz Palmowski

      Specialists in Poland believe that there is a small chance the vaccine. You have to use Chinese experience. There, the peak of infection has probably already passed. However, the virus remains permanently.

      • Like chickenpox, you mean?

      • “With 278 strains of the #COVID19 #coronavirus genetically sequenced & public @GISAID
        a story is emerging. There are three clades:
        S — mostly China, South Korea, USA
        G — Northern Europe and Russia
        V — Singapore, France, Italy, Latin America


      • Ireneusz Palmowski

        We can already see that the epidemic scenario in Spain will be similar to that in Italy. Next up is France, followed by Germany and Great Britain. There must be a wave. We can’t delude ourselves.

      • Vaccines can be tricky.
        The DoD did a study on the effects of current flu vaccines and found some troubling results.
        Vaccines are not a 100% fix. Some flu vaccines can actually backfire and make you more likely to catch other strains of viruses.
        We need to genetically change our DNA to be truly immune.

        This report only looked at a subset of citizens and only for the 2017-18 vaccine. I got the extra strong vaccine this winter and I felt like sh*t for about 36 hrs. but nothing since.

        “Receiving influenza vaccination may increase the risk of other respiratory viruses, a phenomenon known as virus interference. Test-negative study designs are often utilized to calculate influenza vaccine effectiveness. The virus interference phenomenon goes against the basic assumption of the test-negative vaccine effectiveness study that vaccination does not change the risk of infection with other respiratory illness, thus potentially biasing vaccine effectiveness results in the positive direction.”

      • There must be a wave. We can’t delude ourselves.

        One viruses wave is but another’s ripple…

    • Ireneusz Palmowski

      Very changeable weather in Europe. I predict the peak of infection at the turn of March and April.

    • Please remember, global warming is an existential threat. More solar panels please. Spend lots of money on that. Because that’s believing in science. Fighting 1.5 C of warming. The stock market doesn’t care about global warming and legions of lawyers trying to sue big oil. Resilience is solar panels. On the otherhand, that climate change bunker you built, is finally paying off. And people think survivalists are nuts.

    • And, Palmowski, at least Remdesivir appears to have had some benefit on at least one of the cruise ship populations. And both are well-known for safety.

  48. From the first posted article – it is more credible that the response to increasing CO2 is complex and nonlinear – than the assumption of linearity underlying the paradigm of uniform density:


  49. Deep-reaching acceleration of global mean ocean circulation over the past two decades https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/6/eaax7727

    Acceleration of ocean circulation is a double edged sword. If poleward heat transport is increased, that warms the high latitudes. Indeed the recent Arctic warming has resulted from strengthening Gulf Stream flow into the Arctic. But last I checked – the AMOC was slowing down again, as we move from the increasing AMO to the decreasing side.


    But in the other hand, if energised ocean circulation increases vertical mixing, that of course cools the ocean surface and the climate with it. Such increased upwelling also fertilises increased phytoplankton production, expanding the marine biosphere with a net cooling result from aerosol creation and CO2 draw down. Plankton release into the atmosphere DMS (dimethyl sulphate) which nucleates cloud, cooling climate.

    Predominant regional biophysical cooling from recent land cover changes in Europe https://nature.com/articles/s41467-020-14890-0

    So CO2 makes more trees and more trees and forests cool the climate. Is it just me or is that a negative feedback??

  50. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Another cold front falls in the midwest. More rain in the east and south of the US.

  51. US Defence Department funds development of microreactors

    “After announcing its Project Pele in January 2019 and calling for expressions of interest, the US Department of Defense (DOD) has shortlisted three companies to develop a “small mobile reactor” design which could address electrical power needs in rapid response scenarios. These would change the logistics of forward operating bases, both by making more energy available and by simplifying fuel logistics needed for existing, mostly diesel-powered, generators. They would also enable a more rapid response during humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations.

    “DOD wanted each reactor to be a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR) with high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) TRISO fuel and produce a threshold power of 1-10 MWe for at least three years without refuelling. It must be inherently safe, weigh less than 40 tonnes and be sized for transportability by truck, ship, and C-17 aircraft. The reactor must be capable of being installed to the point of “adding heat” within 72 hours of set-up, and of completing a planned shutdown, cool down, disconnect and removal in under seven days. (TRISO fuel is millimetre-sized particles of uranium oxycarbide with carbon moderator and silicon carbide, stable to about 1800°C.)

    “DOD has now awarded contracts to BWX Technologies, X-energy and Westinghouse for design work over two years, after which a design would be selected. X-energy has larger pebble-bed HTR designs at present, and eVinci is a heatpipe reactor. Westinghouse said it would develop the “defense-eVinci mobile design,” evidently now ‘DeVinci’ using TRISO fuel. A prototype microreactor would be built at Idaho or Oak Ridge National Laboratories.”

  52. And DOE’s innovative microreactor is suddenly in the news:

    “At the same time the Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded a contract to BWXT to fabricate HALEU TRISO fuel to support development of DOE’s Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) project. The small HTR, reported to be 3 MWt, is to be built at Oak Ridge to demonstrate reduced deployment costs “using a rapid advanced manufacturing approach.” DOE intends the reactor to be designed and built using 3D printing, and achieve criticality by 2023. “An agile approach to design, manufacturing, and testing is employed to meet this schedule and to deliver a new paradigm to designing and deploying nuclear systems.” The TCR reactor core consists of uranium nitride TRISO fuel particles within an advanced manufactured silicon carbide structure (rather than pebbles). These fuel blocks will be interspersed with yttrium hydride moderator elements.”

    WNN 10/3/20, 12/3/20. Small reactors https://world-nuclear-news.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=140c559a3b34d23ff7c6b48b9&id=3e37245768&e=a3b55276e6

  53. The run on toilet paper is second only to CAGW in brainless mass hysteria. In 1 day, my local, large grocery store went from fully stocked to completely empty.

  54. Let’s continue our observations:

    Planet..Tsat.mean..Rotations..Tmin..Tmax…Tmax /2
    …………measured…..per day………………..
    Mercury..340 K………1/58……100 K…700 K….350 °C
    Earth…….288 K……….1……………………….
    Moon…….220 Κ…….1/29,5….100 K…390 K….195 °C
    Mars……..210 K…….0,9747…130 K…308 K….154 °C

    As we can see for the slow rotating Mercury and for the slow rotating Moon:

    Mercury: 340 K – 350 °C = – Δ 10 °C
    Moon: 220 K – 195 °C = Δ 5 °C

    On the other hand, for the fast rotating Mars
    Tmax.mars /2 = 154 °C
    Tsat.mars.mean = 210 K

    210 K – 154 °C = Δ 56 °C

    It proves that planet Mars, due to its fast spin, appears to be a relatively much warmer planet, than planet Mercury and Moon are.


  55. University of New South Wales researchers blow up their magnetic resonance antenna and find electric nuclear resonance theorized 58 years ago.

    “This landmark result will open up a treasure trove of discoveries and applications,” says Professor Morello. “The system we created has enough complexity to study how the classical world we experience every day emerges from the quantum realm. Moreover, we can use its quantum complexity to build sensors of electromagnetic fields with vastly improved sensitivity. And all this, in a simple electronic device made in silicon, controlled with small voltages applied to a metal electrode.” https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/engineers-crack-58-year-old-puzzle-way-quantum-breakthrough

  56. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Strong thunderstorms and snowstorms in the Midwest US.

  57. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Heavy rain and snow in California.

  58. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Low temperature in lower stratosphere above 65th parallel.

  59. Deep-reaching acceleration o global mean ocean circulation over the past two decades https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/6/eaax7727

    15% per decade increase in the kinetic energy of ocean currents? Could that be where Trenberth’s missing heat went? From a slight increase in global mean temp and downwelling long-wave radiation?

  60. Gradually working my way through (most of) these. Thank you again.

  61. Ireneusz Palmowski

    The wind-chill temperature around Polarsten can reach 58 degrees below zero Celsius. Thanks to these extreme temperatures, only a day after her arrival, the channel of open water left behind by Kapitan Dranitsyn had refrozen so rapidly and intensively that the researchers could walk on it.

    Observations from Polarstern indicate that ice thickness in the region has doubled to an average of 160 centimeters since December, which corresponds to a growth rate of roughly ten centimeters per week.

    In addition, with the aid of helicopter laser-scanner readings, Polarstern’s radar system and buoys, the researchers have been able to observe how the ice deformed and channels opened and closed again. Thanks to the warming of the Arctic Ocean, smaller and thinner ice floes are becoming more common. Driven by the wind, they can collide and overlap, producing pack ice hummocks up to four meters tall. Since a great deal of their mass lies underwater, some hummocks are 20 to 30 meters thick – a phenomenon that now represents a challenge for the resupply icebreakers.

    In contrast, readings taken on the ice, on board ship, and with weather balloons revealed that the air temperature just above the ice was far lower than at a height of 20 meters. In the lowermost 10 meters there can be temperature differences of more than four degrees Celsius, which has a major influence on the increase in ice thickness.

  62. The observed behavior of climatic complexity could be explained by the changes in cloud amount, and we research that possibility by investigating its evolution from a complexity perspective using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP).


    To measure causality, a statistical concept called Granger causality was developed based on the idea of prediction29. Te idea behind causality is that if a variable X1 “Granger-causes” another variable X2, then the prediction
    of X2 is more accurate including the unique information contained in X1 about X2 than considering X2 alone. If X1 and X2 are independent, then the inclusion of X1 does not help to predict X2. Granger causality leans on the
    idea that the cause occurs before the efect, and therefore it points those variables who drive the system.

    Unlike correlation measures, Granger causality is an asymmetrical measure based on linear regression modeling of stochastic processes. However, as the relationship between shortwave and longwave radiation does not have to be linear, the use of vector autoregressive methods and the analysis of Granger causality would not provide any meaningful information30. A diferent approach to measure causality which has proved its efciency is called Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM)31,32. CCM is based on the theory of dynamical systems and its application is suitable for systems where causal variables have synergistic efects, expanding the scope Granger causality which is best suited for purely stochastic systems of linear relations. Here, we keep our work within the Information Theory domain and present an analysis of causality based on Transfer Entropy33, another measure which allows us to determine the causality between two series of data without being restricted to an underlying linear dynamics. Tis technique, which has been applied to different felds from biochemistry34 to Earth35 and Space sciences36, allows us to capture the exchange of information between two systems and the directionality of the flux, determining the infuence of one variable into the other.

    While autoregressive models are limited to linear relations, Transfer Entropy is a general technique which can be used to analyze any system, being equivalent to Granger causality for Gaussian variables37. In this work, we study the causality between shortwave and longwave radiation in a yearly basis since 1980 using Transfer Entropy and determine the fux and direction of the information exchange between the two data series and its trend.

    Apart from the fact that polynomial cointegrated vector autoregressive methods also support estimation of non-linear relationships, this is an interesting applied mathematical paper based on Shannon Entropy.

    A modest conclusion: Our research supports the idea that clouds and albedo, which ultimately determine the SW radiation, are variables of the utmost importance for current climate change, in agreement with previous research about the changes in stratocumulus or energy imbalance in the last four decades for example. An increase in cloud coverage of 0.1 would, on average, lead to a 7% increase in spectrally integrated global average reflectance of shortwave radiation55.

  63. These two go to the same web page:

    Jet stream is not getting ‘wavier’ despite Arctic warming [link]

    Mathematicians unravel the patterned chaos of turbulence in a universal law [link]

  64. Ireneusz Palmowski

    North America will welcome the first day of spring with winter temperatures.

  65. On Coronavirus. Stay at home especially if you’re old.
    On sea ice. Arctic sea ice maximum just passed, highest in 5 years. Inconvenient fact almost disappeared from the internet. Now that’s news.


  66. A late addition …
    Higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations.


    This is the real climate sensitivity that we should be talking about:

    a global CO2 fertilization effect on photosynthesis of 30% since 1900, or 47% for a doubling of C(a) above the pre-industrial level.

    Most amazingly of all, the word “beneficial” in the abstract gets past review:

    These findings suggest a larger beneficial role of the land carbon sink in modulating future excess anthropogenic CO2 consistent with the target of the Paris Agreement to stay below 2°C warming, and underscore the importance of preserving terrestrial carbon sinks.

    Haverd et al. Glob Change Biol. 2020;26:2390–2402.

  67. Ireneusz Palmowski

    A powerful snowstorm in the midwest of the US.

  68. Ireneusz Palmowski

    A frosty front from Canada will reach New York.

  69. From Your tweet of 3/21

    New paper from Koutsoyiannis: Revisiting global hydrological cycle: Is it intensifying? Short answer: fluctuations https://hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/hess-2020-120/

    Many thanks: It looks good.

    Abstract. As a result of technological advances in monitoring tmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and biosphere, as well as in data management and processing, several data bases have become freely available. These can be exploited in revisiting the global hydrological cycle with the aim, on the one hand, to better quantify it and, on the other hand, to test the established climatological hypotheses, according to which the hydrological cycle should be intensifying because of global warming. By processing the information from gridded ground observations, satellite data and reanalyses, it turns out that the established hypotheses are not confirmed. Instead of monotonic trends, there appear fluctuations from intensification to deintensification and vice versa, with deintensification prevailing in the 21st century. The water balance on land and sea appears to be lower than the standard figures of literature, but with greater variability on climatic time scales, which is in
    accordance with Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic dynamics. The most obvious anthropogenic signal in the hydrological cycle appears to be the overexploitation of groundwater, which has a visible effect on sea level rise. Melting of glaciers has an equal effect, but in this case it in not known which part is anthropogenic, as studies on polar regions attribute mass loss
    mostly to ice dynamics.

  70. Iceland – Basalt – CO2 storage – $30/ton.

    “The scientists project that fossil-fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions will hit a record high of 37.1 billion metric tons by the end of this year.”

    $1.1 trillion a year. Warming prevented: 0.02 C/year.

    Cost/1.0 C prevented: $55 trillion.

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