Week in review – science edition

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Important new paper analyzing troposphere/stratosphere measurements and implications for understanding climate change [link]

Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections [link]

Heinrich events show two-stage climate response in transient glacial simulations [link]  

Diagnosing the impacts of Northern Hemisphere surface albedo biases on simulated climate [link

Towards operational prediction of near-term climate [link]

Rapidly receding Arctic Canada glaciers revealing landscapes continuously ice-covered for more than 40,000 years [link]

Implications for Lindzen’s iris hypothesis:  Self-aggregation of deep convection and its implication for climate [link]

Any influence of the 11-year solar cycle in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation is not significant. [link]

Ocean mesoscale mixing linked to climate variability [link]

What Thwaites glacier can tell us about the future of West Antarctica [link]

Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979-2017 [link]

Massive controversy, including attacks on dissenting scientists: How much can forests fight climate change? [link]

“We conclude that the QBO can potentially provide another source of skill for Northern Hemisphere winter prediction” [link

Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water content for oceanic low level clouds – key cloud feedback [link]

Modeling the recent changes in the Arctic Ocean CO2 sink (2006–2013) [link]  

Snow cover trends in Finland over 1961‐2014 based on gridded snow depth observations [link]  

Timescale for detecting the climate response to st ratospheric aerosol geoengineering  [link]

(Re)presenting urban heat islands in Australian cities: A study of media reporting and implications for urban heat and climate change debates [link] 

Are the near-Antarctic easterly winds weakening in response to enhancement of the Southern Annular Mode? [link]  

The solar cycle’s potential impact on weather and climate [link]

Exploring uncertainty in streamflow estimates [link]

The effect of Arctic sea‐ice loss on the Hadley circulation [link

Why Antarctica’s sea ice cover is so low (and no, it’s not just about climate change) [link]

Coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions that lead to the extreme 2017 Coast El Niño event [link]

A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling [link]

20th century redistribution in the drivers of global tree growth [link]

Global atmospheric CO2 inverse models converging on neutral tropical land exchange, but disagreeing on fossil fuel and atmospheric growth rate [link]  

Permafrost is warming at a global scale [link]

Ocean Circulation Signatures of North Pacific Decadal Variability  [link]  

“Although the amount of water contained in the snowpack has declined over the past century, it has been surprisingly stable since the 1980s, despite 1 °C of warming over the same period. ” [link

1D scaling analysis of the ice dynamics suggests that the currently destabilized glaciers are the fastest of all possible MIS-instabilities in #Antarctica. [link

New insight from CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness for sea ice modelling [link

Clarifying the relative role of forcing uncertainties and initial‐condition unknowns in spreading the climate response to volcanic eruptions  [link

How Ningaloo Nino supercharges El Nino [link]

A decadal dataset of global atmospheric dust retrieved from IASI satellite measurements [link]  

Greenland Near-Surface Land Air Temperature Data from Berkeley Earth Present Some Surprises [link]  

Heterogeneous changes in western North American #glaciers linked to decadal variability in zonal wind strength. [link

Uncertainty representations of sea level rise: a telephone game? [link]

 Arctic sea ice (Barents-Kara Sea) anomalies can modulate vertical wave propagation and stratosphere-troposphere coupling in weak polar vortex events [link]  

Millennial‐scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse [link]

Significant Biologically‐mediated CO2 Uptake in the Pacific Arctic During the Late Open Water Season [link]  

Irrigation in the Indian subcontinent strongly modulates water budget and land surface temperature  [link]   

Adapting attribution science to the climate extremes of tomorrow [link]

Disentangling California’s Droughts. [link]
Recent review papers on #Arctic climate variability:
+ [Arctic-Midlatitude summer linkages] [link
+ [Arctic-Midlatitude winter linkages] [link]  
+ [Siberian Snow Teleconnection] [link
+ [Arctic Sea Ice] [link]  

Social science, technology & policy

Article says high-pressure air in deep saline aquifers could store immense amounts of energy, sufficient to keep the lights on in Britain for a couple of months. [link]

Some of the best environmental #peacebuilding work in the world is currently taking place in Wadi El Ku, Sudan. A @UNEnvironment project has helped triple crop yield, increase farmers’ income, and improve community-based natural resources management [link]  

Incorporation of inland flooding into hurricane evacuation decision support modeling [link]

for Minnesota, it is cheaper to overbuild (and curtail) renewable energy than it is to build long-term storage. [link]

Warming trends in summer heatwaves [link

German wine makers see boon in climate change [link]

EC Report:  Climate Change Adaptation: research, science and innovation [link]

Second largest earthquake in South Korean history tied to geothermal plant [link]

Reshaping Africa’s rural food systems and cutting food losses [link]

Factors influencing the adaptation of farmers in response to climate change: a review [link]

US Oil Boom Is Headed Into Uncharted Territory — 12 Million Barrels Per Day [link

Groundwater monitoring reports at #coalash sites are starting to show widespread contamination from health-harming heavy metals like arsenic. [link]

About science & scientists

This is not reality:  excellent analysis of uncertainty and validation in modeling [link]

Feeling Exhausted. That’s how many #womeninscience feel having to fight the constant battles, big and small. [link]

Long but fascinating read: Is ancient DNA research revealing new truths, or falling into old traps? [link]

Finally, a good paper on ‘motivated reasoning’. [link]

“Our habit of dismissing the doomsday messages broadcast by right-wing media has prevented those of us on the left from getting an accurate read on the state of campus free expression.” [link]

“The National Science Foundation and philosophy of science’s withdrawal from social concerns.” [link]

New Institute for Integrity in Science [link]

Listening to people who think we are wrong [link]

Scientific progress is build on failure [link]

Problems with second-order logic: Metalogic and the overgeneration argument [link]

76 responses to “Week in review – science edition

  1. Important new paper analyzing troposphere/stratosphere measurements and implications for understanding climate change.

    This one here:

    Heinrich events show two-stage climate response in transient glacial simulations.

    This one here:

  2. The very first link doesn’t seem to point to the correct paper.

    I also found the “This is not reality: excellent analysis of uncertainty and validation in modeling” paper to be unsurprising. Modelers generally are dramatically overconfident in the value of the predictions of their models. The question is when bias is taken into account, how does that change assessments.

  3. About “Why Antarctica’s sea ice cover is so low (and no, it’s not just about climate change)”:
    The key statement in the (The Conversation) article is : “Taken together, the evidence we present supports the idea that the rapid Antarctic sea ice decline in late 2016 was largely due to natural climate variability.”.
    The myopia in climate science circles is stunning. All they are looking at is the sudden decline in sea ice over a two year period (two years!). Yes, of course it was due to natural forces, but then so was the remarkable fall in Southern Ocean surface temperatures over the previous 36 years (36 years!). Funny how they don’t mention that.
    You see, those natural forces don’t just suddenly appear for a year or two and go away again. They are there all the time. Until scientists have a really good understanding of the natural forces, they will have a really bad understanding of climate, and their climate models, which have many serious problems because of their poor resolution and their crude parameterisations of key processes, will always be useless.

    • Amen.

      “A pocket full of mumbles, such are promises, all lies and jests.
      Still a man sees what he wants to see, and disregards the rest.”

    • About “Why Antarctica’s sea ice cover is so low (and no, it’s not just about climate change)”:

      Yes it is about climate change. The sequestering of ice on Antarctica land occurs in warmest times when ice shelves and sea ice have diminished. The evaporation produces water vapor and the snowfall occurs over Antarctic land and rebuilds the sequestered ice. When sequestered ice is sufficient to increase ice flow rate of the ice that creates ice shelves and breaks off and cools the oceans, the ocean cools and sea ice returns. Now evaporation around the floating ice produces snowfall on the floating ice and not on the ice sequestered on the land. The ice on the land continues to flow and deplete during this cold time until it loses enough ice and the sea ice thaws and the ice shelves retreat and then the warm cycle rebuilds the ice again.

      This is exactly about the longer term climate cycles due to changes in sequestered ice.

  4. Stephen Anthony

    Re Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979-2017
    Where’s Zwally?
    No refutation of Zwally.and no mention in the article references,
    Has Zwally been discredited? If not then for what it’s worth, the article is not trustworthy imv.

  5. About the “Millennial‐scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse” link. Could “millennial‐scale vulnerability” be an oxymoron? I would think that a millennium is plenty of time to adjust. Where was humanity at the start of Michael Mann’s hockey stick? I suppose “science” could determine that resources and technology will top out, making human flourishing unsustainable.

  6. All the necessary data to understand climate change is in ice core data.

    Ice accumulations are most in warmest times and coldest times always follow. Ice accumulations are least in coldest times and warmest times always follow. During the changes from a warm period to a cold period and during these periods, there are correlations with all the other factors. The warm period to cold period and back currently takes about a thousand years. Modern analysis considers curvefits and correlation of changes in very short time. Ice extent is considered to be increased by colder and decreased by warmer. Ice core data shows more ice extent causes colder and less ice extent causes warmer. Open Arctic is considered to be a danger sign for a climate tipping point. Ice core data shows that the ice on Greenland is replenished in the warm times with warm Arctic and evaporation from open Arctic Ocean. The Arctic was warm and open during the Roman and Medieval Warm periods and little ice ages followed several hundred years after. The warm times with open Arctic are normal, natural and necessary.
    in the presentation linked to below, look at charts 14 to 17, they show the relationship between temperatures and ice cycles.

  7. Larry Kramer, head of the Hewlett Foundation, wrote about the necessity of listening to people who disagree with you and his plans for future workshops to listen to those who disagree with him. He stated that Holocaust and climate change deniers would not be invited. His further discussion indicated he is looking for people who disagree with him, by not by much.

    More worrisome, his: “In truth, much can be said for the neoliberal system that Giridharadas dismisses, which has undeniably played a crucial role in lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. And while that system may have run its course, understanding why—and, more important, figuring out what should replace it—is a complex matter that requires more than a contemptuous backhand.” In other words: Democratic capitalism must go.

    The preceding quote, along with his general discussion, indicates he is looking for globally-directed social justice, sustainable growth, fossil fuel limitations, and socialism for everyone. This, apparently, is what philanthropy has degenerated into if the head of the Hewlett Foundation is to be believed.

  8. These reviews all continue to give examples of ‘the more we know, the more we don’t know’ –or at least parts of it. I challenge Andy Dessler of A&M who seems way too confident that The Science is settled and policy action obvious. https://www.masterresource.org/dessler-andrew-vs-perry/dessler-vs-abbott-2019/

  9. I had trouble opening an unusual number of these papers.

    The following went to “Managing Social Media” page
    1 – Heinrich events show two-stage climate response in transient glacial simulations (“Buffer – save time managing social media”)
    2 – Diagnosing the impacts of Northern Hemisphere surface albedo biases on simulated climate
    4 – A decadal dataset of global atmospheric dust retrieved from IASI satellite measurements Disentangling California’s Droughts. (Blank page)
    5 – Modeling the recent changes in the Arctic Ocean CO2 sink (2006–2013)
    6 – Snow cover trends in Finland over 1961‐2014 based on gridded snow depth observations
    7 – Are the near-Antarctic easterly winds weakening in response to enhancement of the Southern
    Annular Mode?
    8 – Warming trends in summer heatwaves (error 404)
    US Oil Boom Is Headed Into Uncharted Territory — 12 Million Barrels Per Day (“cannot get”)

    I had various problems accessing the following
    1 – Permafrost is warming at a global scale (“Safari Can’t Open Page”)
    2 – Some of the best environmental #peacebuilding work in the world is currently taking place in Wadi El Ku, Sudan. A @UNEnvironment project has helped triple crop yield, increase farmers’ income, and improve community-based natural resources management (“something’s wrong here”)
    3 – (Re)presenting urban heat islands in Australian cities: A study of media reporting and implications for urban heat and climate change debates (Link Didn’t work)

    Dr. Curry, I commend you for putting this together. I am sure it takes a lot of time and effort. Thanking you for taking the time and putting forth the effort.

  10. Geoff Sherrington

    Link seems broken for (Re)presenting urban heat islands in Australian cities: A study of media reporting and implications for urban heat and climate change debates
    Try https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212095518300555

    I did some work on this last month.
    http://www.geoffstuff.com/uhi2018.docx Geoff.

    • “However, the media analysis also highlighted two factors which have potentially negative consequences regarding science communication and citizen understandings of science. These are the ambiguous and/or cautious manner in which the UHI effect is referred to and the use of UHI as an alternative argument to climate change in the climate change debate frame.” Cue Sherrington

      • Cue folks with a censorship type agenda Robert.. They are trying to confuse ordinary folks from seeing that measuring temperature in towns & cities will always result in measuring UHU effects..
        So finding out if any climate warming has happened and if so, it’s extent, requires eliminating possible UHU effects from any ‘warming’ records.

      • I think you mean UHI.

  11. Hi Judith,
    The link for the Finland snow trends took me to a software page called ‘Buffer’ – nothing on snow?

  12. Any influence of the 11-year solar cycle in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation is not significant.

    I get “page not found”.

  13. sheldonjwalker

    ❶①❶① . . . A climate fairy tale – (but it might be true) . . .

    Once upon a time, a long long time ago, in a distant galaxy, there lived 2 twins. There were originally 3 twins, but the 3rd twin was a contradiction in terms, and had to be “put down”. The twins’ names were Sheldon Sky-Walker, and Leia Sky-Walker. Leia was often referred to by her nickname, “Princess”.

    [ please insert a $1 coin to continue reading … ]

    Sheldon sighed. “I wish that I knew what snow was”, said Sheldon.
    [ Ironically, when Sheldon was older, and he was trapped on Hoth the ice planet, he would wish that he DIDN’T know what snow was. ]

    A smile suddenly appeared on Sheldon’s face. “I know what to do”, he said. “I am going to use the dark side of the force, to prove that there was a recent slowdown.

    “No, Sheldon”, cried Leia, “don’t do it. It is too dangerous. What if the Empire finds out?”

    Sheldon’s smile disappeared, but a look of determination took its place. “I don’t care if the IPCC does find out. Dad (Darth) will protect me. I know that there is still some good, deep down inside him.”

    [ please insert another $1 coin to continue reading … ]


  14. The link for this article is not working :
    (Re)presenting urban heat islands in Australian cities: A study of media reporting and implications for urban heat and climate change debates [link]

  15. Thanks for the links Dr Curry.


    “our results suggest that summer warmth of the past century exceeds now any century in ~115,000 years.”

    Should I be alarmed?
    Does this suggest that the neoglaciation is likely over and that we won’t see a holocene again? Should I set my low temp cryogenic chamber for 100k yrs rather than 1k yrs? Commenters advice please?

    • I didn’t get the logic of that paper. During the last ice age snow piled up and buried plants. Then the ice age ended and that ice slowly began to melt away. So they go to areas that are recently exposed, find that the plants underneath have been buried for a very long time, and conclude that the current warmth must be the greatest ever because, at those spots, the interglacial finally licked its way to the center of the tootsie pop. Getting to the center doesn’t mean the last licks were more intense than earlier licks, it just means the total applied licking effort finally overcame the outer shell’s thickness. I don’t see how you can get any rate curve out of that.

    • “our results suggest that summer warmth of the past century exceeds now any century in ~115,000 years.”

      That means you are using the Hockey Stick data for the most recent ten thousand years. The IPCC only got away with using that once, it was tossed out before the next IPCC report. Greenland ice core data clearly shows multiple warm periods warmer than now.

      • The past century is the only century during which temperature measurements were taken by people using thermometers. Ice core data from Greenland and Antarctica are our best proxies the last hundred thousand years in the NH and eight hundred thousand years in the SH.
        Understanding what the temperature and ice accumulation records is the key to understanding the climate ice cycles and ocean temperatures. Ocean temperatures are a best measure of average earth temperatures, land temperature can change rapidly and are more difficult to measure and average.

    • Does this suggest that the neoglaciation is likely over and that we won’t see a holocene again? Should I set my low temp cryogenic chamber for 100k yrs rather than 1k yrs? Commenters advice please?

      The most recent ten thousand years has had the tightest regulation of temperature in narrow bounds, ever. This is the new normal. If you want to a better time to live in to wake up from a long frozen sleep, there may never be a better climate to live in on earth than now. There are many choices from way to hot to way too cold, just move around on earth until you find what you like best. Pick a place with reliable fossil fuel or nuclear energy for their local supply and with conservative politics to maintain a reliable future.

      Liberal Alarmist governments can ruin energy production and manufacturing and quality of life within one political term.

  16. Interesting… “Diagnosing the impacts of Northern Hemisphere surface albedo biases on simulated climate [link] ”

    Having trouble with the link tho–

    …replacing the model’s internal surface albedo calculation with values prescribed from observations, or from other model simulations. Results show that while biases in surface albedo are largest in winter, those during spring have the greatest impact on surface climate because incoming solar radiation is much stronger.

  17. Judith, in “Listening to the people who think we are wrong”, a great pick from you (my father was a Federal Judge and attorney) it is deeply concerning these days that some ‘scientists’ are tuning out from others and blocking and shushing what others have to say. What is your take of late?

  18. The solar cycle’s potential impact on weather and climate [link]

    “I was a complete skeptic regarding any tangible impacts of the solar cycle…” says Weather Company’s Todd Crawford. “Then I dug into the observations [e.g., up to 10% variations in ultraviolet radiation], and that’s when I became a true believer in the ‘Church of Sol’.”

    Sounds like a skeptic became a skeptic.

  19. “Our habit of dismissing the doomsday messages broadcast by right-wing media has prevented those of us on the left from getting an accurate read on the state of campus free expression.” [link]…

    …link not working but sounds like, e.g., ‘we in academia are so used to dismissing whatever the criticisms of others may be that it was a shock to learn that’s one of our biggest problems.”

  20. “When people are divided into “loyalists” and “criminals” a premium is placed on every type of conformist, coward, and hireling; whereas among the “criminals” one finds a singularly high percentage of people who are direct, sincere, and true to themselves. From the social point of view these persons would constitute the best guarantee that the future development of the social organism would be toward good.”


    There are parallels to the climate debate and other things. I think loyalist is good. In the story the person used the “I Win” button. I am a loyalist. Also see the Václav Havel’s greengrocer example. These loyalists that get really worked up about it do it right out in the open. The term denier. Various forms of it. I feel sorry for them.

  21. sheldonjwalker

    ❶①❶① . . . Curry versus Tamino . . .

    I don’t have time for a full article about this debate now. I don’t even know the exact details (but that has never stopped me from giving my opinion).

    The debate seems to be about the size of the Early 20th Century Warming, compared to the Late 20th Century Warming.

    By my reckoning, the Early 20th Century Warming was about 0.30 degrees Celsius.

    The Late 20th Century Warming was about 0.77 degrees Celsius.

    So the Late 20th Century Warming was about 2.5 times bigger than the Early 20th Century Warming.

    But before Tamino begins celebrating, he should think about this.

    The Early 20th Century Warming took place over about 30 years.

    The Late 20th Century Warming took place over about 50 years.

    So the warming rates, were approximately equal.

    Did Judith Curry say whether she was talking about “temperature change” size, or “warming rate” size?

    Because a case can be made for the claim that the warming rate of the Early 20th Century Warming, was of a similar size to the warming rate of the Late 20th Century Warming.

    See the 2 following graphs.


    • Sheldon, i think Dr Curry was talking about the warming from the 70s until the pause (which has actually returned after the great el nino). In that case, the early twentieth century warming is similar to recent warming. Alarmists have been milking the nino for whatever it’s been worth. Even now they’re playing with trend lines instead of realizing that there has been no net warming for seventeen years (which, btw, is the true definition of the pause). Tamino is just playing mind games. Planet Terra doesn’t care about mind games — it just does what it does…

    • 21st-century – .19 ℃ per decade, despite the negative phase of PDO (the skeptic unmentionable: that negative phase NV is a little pink weakling)
      1974 to 2001 – .17 ℃ per decade
      1950 to 1974 – .04 ℃ per decade:


  22. ‘Any influence of the 11-year solar cycle in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation is not significant’

    The NAO responds most to the solar wind, which shifts in and out of phase with sunspot cycles. Major lows in the solar wind associated with negative NAO around 1969 and 1979/80 were at sunspot maximum. But from SC23, the major lows were around a year past sunspot minimum, centered around 1997 and 2009.
    In the 70’s and 80’s plasma pressure was higher around sunspot minimum, since the 90’s that has shifted to around 2-3 years past sunspot maximum.
    Top trace; plasma temperature, lower trace; pressure:

  23. Sea level accelerations at globally distributed tide gauge stations during the satellite altimetry era


    This observational study reports that several globally distributed tide gauge stations exhibit a propensity of statistically significant sea level accelerations during the satellite altimetry era. However, the magnitudes of the estimated tide gauge accelerations during this period are systematically and noticeably smaller than the global mean sea level acceleration reported by recent analyses of satellite altimetry. The differences are likely to be caused by the interannual, decadal and interdecadal sea level variations, which are modeled using a broken trend model with overlapping harmonics in the analyses of tide gauge data but omitted in the analysis of satellite altimetry.

  24. “Intellectuals have a dangerous tendency, and powerful incentives, to isolate themselves from any form of feedback and reality-check. This fits Popperian thinking like a glove. In The Beginning of Infinity, David Deutsch is even more blunt. According to Deutsch, since there is no secure foundation upon which to build knowledge, and since error is the normal state of our knowledge, the only thing we can cling on to is the hope to correct our errors. It therefore follows that the ultimate immoral thing is to destroy the means of correcting errors, that is, to isolate ourselves from criticism.”


    In their name, wind turbines. Many things. Many policies. A Green Revolution. Which is right up there with the infamous Unicorn Revolution but costs a lot more.

  25. The article about trees was interesting.
    My recollection was that the rapid re-emergence of forest in the US happened as people moved away from wood as a primary fuel for heating and cooking. That didn’t really get going in much of the US until 1890-1940. Which means rapid growth in tree coverage and CO2 emissions in the early 20th. That land use change and emissions change could have played a role in the early 20th warming.
    For those of us who live in the US South, reforestation is a shocker. There are thousands of Civil War era photos of familiar Virginia fields, villages and bridges – all showing wide open areas without trees. Areas that are covered in woods today.

  26. “The long term amplitude modulation of the
    sunspot cycle that appears to regulate most aspects of solar variability is composed by the Gleissberg cycle. This is one of the periods occurring in the time-variation of solar variability. Its value is variable over the centuries, ranging between 60 and 140 years with an average value of 88 years (Ogurtsov et al., 2002). Another component affecting the long-term variation of the Sun is the De Vries or Suess cycle. This is a fairly constant period of variability that peaks fairly sharply at about 205 years. The Hallstatt cycle of 2300 years also seems to be of solar origin (Clilverd et. al., 2003; Muscheler et al., 2003). Other cycles sometimes attributed to the Sun (Stoykova et al., 2008) may be ascribed to atmospheric periodicities. ” https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/A6067FE54FCC7BB44E28E449BA260BD5/S0016774600023283a.pdf/div-class-title-solar-activity-and-its-influence-on-climate-div.pdf

    I have been been doing some more solar/climate reading. It is much as I thought. The solar magneto evolves with as much irregularity as regularity. Obvious in the cosmogenic isotope record.

    Nonetheless, I am persuaded that solar winds may be correlated with cloud and polar surface pressure and vertical electric currents at the geomagnetic polar foci. Explaining as much as 10% of polar surface pressure variance through the variance of the vertical electric current.


    “The By changes (or more precisely the changes in the product of By with the solar wind velocity Vsw) are associated with changes in the ionospheric potential, Vi, at high magnetic latitudes (mag. lat. > ~80°)
    [Tinsley and Heelis, 1993]. The Mansurov effect is a ground level pressure response to the sign of By, and the pressure response is opposite for high magnetic latitude stations in the Northern Hemisphere as compared to the Southern Hemisphere…

    Higher (lower) average ground-level pressure was associated with negative (positive) By for the Northern Hemisphere site. The opposite association was determined for the Southern Hemisphere station. In both cases that magnitude of the association was 0.7 hP per nT (determined from Tinsley [2000]).” https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2006JD007246

    “Specifically, the variation in the daily average of IMF By across a range of ∼8 nT has been associated with changes in the high‐latitude surface atmospheric pressure anomaly of ∼1–2 hPa [Burns et al., 2008; Lam et al., 2013].” https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL061421#grl52088-fig-0002

    “The magnetic fields of sunspots show strict regularities (the polarity laws) that change in a 22 years cycle. This makes clear that the essential physical period of the Sun is not the 11-years Schwabe cycle but a cycle of twice its duration: the 22-years Hale cycle.” https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/A6067FE54FCC7BB44E28E449BA260BD5/S0016774600023283a.pdf/div-class-title-solar-activity-and-its-influence-on-climate-div.pdf

    Really the 8 to 13 year Schwabe cycle. Polar surface pressure variability is the source of much global climate variability. There would appear potential here to explain 20 to 30 year periodicity in global climate with physical linkages to the Hale quasi cycle of solar magnetic reversal. As well as perhaps some aspects of polar anti-phase behaviour.

    By – btw – is one orientation of open magnetic flux lines in the interplanetary magnetic field.


    But if you imagine that this negates internal chaotic responses – tipping cascades – to small changes in other control variable – such as greenhouse gases – you’re dreaming.

  27. “for Minnesota, it is cheaper to overbuild (and curtail) renewable energy than it is to build long-term storage. ”

    This article is so silly as to be nonsensical. WTF good does excess wind & solar capacity do you, when it’s dark & the wind doesn’t blow? Fails the Giggle Test. Bah.

  28. Here are the first two papers of a four-part series of papers that show that the rate-of-change of the world mean temperatures on sub-decadal, decadal and centennial time-scales are driven by the influence of the Perigean New/Full moon tidal cycles upon the initiation of moderate to strong El Nino events.

    Paper I

    Wilson I.R.G. and Sidorenkov, N.S., 2018, A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate I: Centennial Times Scales, J Earth Sci Clim Change 2018, 9:2


    Paper II

    Wilson, I.R.G. and Sidorenkov, N.S., 2019, A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate II: Extreme Perigean New/Full Moons and El Niño Events, The General Science Journal, Jan 2019, 7637.


    • astroclimatelink: Here are the first two papers … .

      I hope that you have been able to make predictions of relevant outcomes for the next 20 – 80 or so years.

      • Matthewrmarler,

        Successful Predictions [Confirmed] :

        In 2012, I made a submission to the Australian Senate that concluded that there would be wide-spread drought conditions throughout Australia in 2019. This was advice was ignored by the Senate Committee. These conclusions were based upon a lunar tidal model. Australia is currently suffering one of its worst periods of widespread drought.

        In Nov 2014, I predicted that there would a moderate to strong El Nino would start around March 2015. The strong 2015/16 El Nino started in February 2015.


        # In 2018, I predict that there will be 88.5 (Gleissberg), 148.25, and 208.0 (de Vries) cycles observable in temperature and/or rainfall records in regional climate systems that are caused by the lunar tidal cycles. These are often claimed to be due to Gleissberg and de Vries cycles visible in the
        level of solar activity: I believe that it is possible that both lunar and solar forcing is playing a role.

        Centennial-scale solar forcing of the South American Monsoon System recorded in stalagmites

        http://www.nature.com/scientific reports | 6:24762 | DOI: 10.1038/srep24762

        “The spectral analysis of the δ 18O values of stalagmites ALHO6 and CUR4 (Fig. 2), performed with the REDFIT method, reveals a significant periodicity at 208 years and marginally significant periodicities at 83, 31, 18–16, 11, 9 and 7–3 years (Fig. 2, Supplementary Fig. S7). The periodicities of 208, 83 and 11 years in the spectral analysis are close to the solar cycles of de Vries-Suess, Gleissberg and the Schwabe sunspot cycle, respectively. The wavelet analysis of the ALHO6+ CUR4 record (Fig. 2b) indicates that the main 208-year cycle is very robust and persists over the entire 1500 years. This same periodicity (210-year) is also highlighted in an independent spectral analysis performed by using the Lomb periodogram method (Supplementary Fig. S8). The 83-year cycle is stronger between ~750–1000 AD and ~1200–1500 AD, while the 11-year cycle appears more randomly distributed over the record. The periodicities of 31 [Pergian Spring tidal cycle?] and 18–16 years [18.03 Lunar Saros cycle?) do not emerge as significant in the wavelet analysis, but can be related to the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the region. The periodicities of 7–3 years are most likely related to ENSO variability. In addition, the cross-wavelet analysis between ALHO6 and total solar irradiance shows a clear correlation at a periodicity of approximately 208 years.”


        Future Predictions – based up lunar tidal models. [Yet to be confirmed]

        [Please go to my astroclimateconnection blog site for the prediction that are not cited from a specific source below]]:

        # In Nov 2018, I predicted that there will be a moderate to strong El Nino
        starting around July 2019.

        # In Jun 2014, I predicted that the State of Victoria will have heavier than normal rainfall around the year 2029.

        # In 2013, I published a research paper in Energy and Environment:

        Wilson, I.R.G., 2013, Are Global Mean Temperatures
        Significantly Affected by Long-Term Lunar Atmospheric
        Tides? Energy & Environment, Vol 24,
        No. 3 & 4, pp. 497 – 508

        That predicts that world mean temperature will either remain the same or cool slightly (~ 0.2 to 0.3 C) over the 31-year period from 2007 to 2038, depending up the contribution of human-induced global warming. After that, the world will start warming again for a period of roughly 31 years (i.e. 2038 to 2069)

        # In 2008 (posted to my blog in site March 2010), I showed that (since 1600) the equatorial trade winds in the Atlantic ocean and (since 1820) the Summer Indian Monsoon both showed a 60-year cycle.

        I predicted that both of these 60-year cycles will continue into the foreseeable future.

  29. The simple secret of landscape management is to increase water retention through increased organic (carbon) content in soil, swales, sand dams, terracing, retaining crop cover and encouraging deep rooted perennials. This produces a drought tolerant system, more evapotranspiration and a cooler surface, more recharge to deep aquifers, more dry weather creek flows, less downstream flooding, less soil erosion, less nutrient export to waterways, greater biodiversity conservation and higher agricultural productivity.



    It costs US$17 per person to provide water for life with ambitions to build a million sand dams for 0.5 billion people by 2040.


  30. Worth a post on its own
    Channel 9 news site Australia 2 hours ago
    “energy bill from last week’s heatwave has been revealed with Victoria and South Australia spending $1.1 billion during 48 hours of scorching weather.

    Tremendous pressure was placed on power supplies at the height of the heat as temperatures reached the mid to high 40s.

    The Australian Energy Market was forced to order rolling power cuts across both states to prevent widespread blackouts.

    The power bills for Victoria and South Australia have topped $1.1 billion.
    The power bills for Victoria and South Australia have topped $1.1 billion. (Getty)
    In Victoria alone, that meant 200,000 homes and businesses were left without power in the middle of the heatwave.

    Three generators in Victoria, two at Yallourn and one at Loy Yang, failed in the lead up to the extreme heat.

    Despite the inconvenience to many thousands, compensation is not currently being offered.”
    I cannot believe the figure of 1.1 billion.
    Puts this little town in the shade.
    Perhaps JoNova’s husband could write it up properly.
    1.1 billion!!
    There was a film where someone says something like that

  31. The Daily Mail linked a fun little climate paper at Science Direct which says the Little Ice Age was caused by a drop in CO2 that resulted from the mass genocide of Native Americans.

    I gather that the paper’s authors never glanced at historian David Hinige’s excellent book “Numbers from Nowhere: The American Indian Contact Population Debate” about how sketchy data, bad math, unreliable sources, and circular reasoning are the norm in that field.

  32. Michael Kelly

    @George Turner: The highest estimate of Native American population I’ve seen for 1492 is 67 million (60 million in Central and South America). If all of them disappeared, and we had a Little Ice Age as a result, why didn’t the deaths of 87 million people in 1914-1919 (37 million in WWI, 50 million from the Spanish Flu) have the same effect?

  33. The imprints of contemporary mass redistribution on regional sea level and vertical land motion observations

    Abstract. We derive trends and monthly anomalies in global and regional sea-level and solid-earth deformation that result from mass redistribution observed by GRACE and an ensemble of GIA models. With this ensemble, we do not only compute mean changes, but we also derive uncertainty estimates of all quantities.

    We find that over the GRACE era, the trend in land mass change has led to a sea-level trend of 1.28–1.82mm/yr, which is driven by ice mass loss, while terrestrial water storage has increased over the GRACE period, causing a sea-level drop of 0.11–0.47mm/yr. This redistribution of mass causes sea-level and deformation patterns that do not only vary in space, but also in time.

    The temporal variations affect GNSS-derived vertical land motion (VLM) observations, which are now commonly used to correct tide-gauge observations. We find that for many GNSS stations, including GNSS stations in coastal locations, solid-earth deformation resulting from present-day mass redistribution causes trends in the order of 1mm/yr or higher. Since GNSS records often only span a few years, these trends are generally not representative for the tide-gauge records, which often span multiple decades, and extrapolating them backwards in time could cause substantial biases.

    To avoid this possible bias, we computed trends and associated uncertainties for 8228 GNSS stations after removing deformation due to GIA and present-day mass redistribution. With this separation, we are able to explain a large fraction of the discrepancy between observed sea-level trends at multiple long tide-gauge records and the reconstructed global-mean sea-level trend from recent reconstructions.

  34. ‘Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections’
    “Circulation-related fields can show apparent multidecadal trends that are subsequently reversed, suggesting that such trends are dominated by internal variability. For example, the observed decrease in drought severity over the central United States during the second half of the twentieth century is opposite to the change expected from global warming…”

    Doesn’t make sense, because low solar drives a warm AMO phase via negative NAO/AO, and the warm AMO phase increases US drought. If rising CO2 forcing is projected directly onto natural variability, it should give a positive NAO/AO response, driving an inverse response from the ocean modes, i.e. a cooler AMO.
    The frame of reference of high frequency changes in the solar wind directly driving NAO/AO anomalies, with an inverse response from the ocean modes, such that low solar = -NAO/-AO drives +AMO and El Nino conditions, provides the conceptual framework to usefully predict regional precipitation. Calling it internal variability is no use to man or beast.

  35. Rob Johnson-taylor

    Something that caught my eye(s)
    European colonisation of America and the associated depopulation of indigenous people by disease, led to regrowth of natural vegetation and enough carbon drawdown to explain about half the LIA CO2 drop.

  36. “The voluminous 627-page report titled Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Climate Change, Sustainability and People issued on Monday by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) states that even in the best-case scenario, the Himalayan mountains will loose on-third of their ice by the end of the century…

    After the controversy surrounding a 2007 report by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) that predicted all Himalayan glaciers would be gone by 2035, scientists have been much more careful in making similarly wild predictions. Which is why ICIMOD deployed 210 scientists from 20 countries in this five-year study to assess the latest knowledge from peer-reviewed journal findings.”


    Research source: http://www.icimod.org/?q=33860

  37. Here’s some important news about the AMOC reported in the Science Daily site – a good source of new scientific discoveries:


    So the NH downwelling and cold deep water formation that drives the THC really does happen in the Norwegian Sea, after all.

    When I studied oceanography at university 35 years ago we were taught that the Norwegian Sea – the north-east Atlantic region between Scotland and Greenland – was the epicentre of THC- impelling cold water downwelling. But in recent times opinion has shifted toward the north western Atlantic nearer the Canadian coast, the Labrador Sea, being the more important location for deep water formation.

    This new research shows that oceanographers half a century ago were right after all – it is the Norwegian Sea that is the more important location for cold saline downwelling.

    In a departure from the prevailing scientific view, the study shows that most of the overturning and variability is occurring not in the Labrador Sea off Canada, as past modeling studies have suggested, but in regions between Greenland and Scotland. There, warm, salty, shallow waters carried northward from the tropics by currents and wind, sink and convert into colder, fresher, deep waters moving southward through the Irminger and Iceland basins.

    Overturning variability in this eastern section of the ocean was seven times greater than in the Labrador Sea, and it accounted for 88 percent of the total variance documented across the entire North Atlantic over the 21-month study period.

    These findings, unexpected as they may be, can help scientists better predict what changes might occur to the MOC and what the climate impacts of those changes will be, said Susan Lozier, the Ronie-Rochele Garcia-Johnson Professor of Earth and Ocean Sciences at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment.

  38. This sounds familiar:

    “Heresies are ideas that have been judged to be false by religious authorities. Once an idea is judged heretical the faithful need no longer engage with proponents of that idea. The idea is heretical and the person who advocates it is himself a heretic and thus not just incorrect or wrong, but wrong in willful defiance of the truth as defined by authoritative consensus. Heretical ideas, and the heretics who espouse them, should not be ignored in their wrongness; they should be suppressed lest the innocent be harmed by the heretic’s falsehoods.”


    Was it Schmidt who walked out of an interview before it started? Calling people deniers is counter productive as the article explains.

  39. “This is really about providing justice for communities and just transitions for communities,” Ocasio-Cortez told NPR on Thursday morning. “So really the heart of the Green New Deal is about social justice.”
    Social justice.

  40. Another important timescale making up the fractal set of timescale over which nonlinear oceanic circulation drives climate change:


    This is the null hypothesis that advocates of the CAGW hypothesis forgot to address.

    Better late than never though.

  41. “It doesn’t matter how obscure the journal, and how technical the paper–self-appointed guardians of morality feel entitled to suppress opinions or research findings they do not agree with. In 2018, social media can actually influence what we can do in our operating theatres. We end up doing medicine that’s increasingly ‘Facebook-based’ rather than evidence-based.”
    Colleges are positioning themselves as what? We know. The world came to climate science and copied what they do. If you see something, say something. A bunch of virtue signalers.

  42. Scott Adams talks about bombshell fake news, unwitting Russian assets, a solution for climate change…
    He talks about Gen IV. He points out the problem with the GND. It’s no regrets.

  43. Re: “Important new paper analyzing troposphere/stratosphere measurements and implications for understanding climate change”

    Your link for this text is broken. In response to your text, Javier gave a link to the paper “Has global warming already arrived?”:

    I suspect that’s the paper you’re referring to, since that paper analyzes troposphere/stratosphere measurements and discusses their implications for understanding climate change. Moreover, you’ve cited that paper before, calling it “[i]nteresting”, to go along with your above claim of it being “[i]mportant”:


    The paper is neither “[i]nteresting” nor “[i]mportant”. It’s nonsense on stilts, for reasons I’ve covered elsewhere:


    It’s distortions are so transparently obvious, that I’m shocked that it made it past peer review… until I remember the same journal that published it has let dubious contrarian research through before.

    Anyway, to borrow an apt quote from Victor Venema:

    “Judith Curry is very intelligent and has much experience as scientist. She naturally knows that this quote was nonsense, but also that her audience likes it. Thus she non-noncommittally calls it interesting.
    My wish for 2014 is that Curry comes back to the scientific community and stops using the word “interesting” so much. The scientific way of trying to understand why there is a difference of understanding is making it clearer what you mean.