by Judith Curry
Happy New Year!
In thinking about what to write for this post, I took a look at the previous end of year posts at Climate Etc. In the early years of the blog, I focused on end of year blog statistics and CE’s ‘greatest hits’. Some years I looked at other published ‘year in review’ articles, and prognostications.
Evaluating my prognostications for 2018
My 2017 year in review post included the following prognostications, lets see how I did:
U.S. politics: I’m predicting that the midterm (2018) elections will not be particularly ‘partisan’, but rather the best candidates will be elected, with ‘character’ a major factor. Both the Republican and Democratic parties are in disarray. This is an opportunity for post partisanship in U.S. politics, and maybe some good candidates will be elected to the Senate and House. –> impact of November election remains to be seen.
Climate politics: I predict that in 2018 the climate dialogue in the U.S. will be dominated by litigation against federal and state governments and petroleum companies. The ‘blame game.’ President Trump will continue to ignore the issue, other than to troll the warmists whenever the weather in the US goes counter to the ‘alarm.’ –> spot on
Climate solutions: I predict that internationally, governments will re-prioritize providing reliable power in the face of extreme cold events. There will be a growing realization that we don’t have ‘solutions’ to the problem of bringing CO2 emissions down to zero in the near term. The focus will turn towards technological innovation and adaptation. –> spot on
2018 climate: I predict that global average 2018 surface temperatures won’t be ‘top five’, i.e. cooler than the last few years. –> oops, looks like 2018 will be top 4.
My main goals for 2018
From my 2017 post:
Continue to build my business Climate Forecast Applications Network, with research focused on sub seasonal, seasonal and interannual prediction. Working with new clients on decadal and century scale climate issues. –> check, its going pretty well.
Adapt to my retirement: less travel and more time for carving out things I want to do. More focus on health – my right hand is now at about 60% functionality (don’t ask me to chop an onion, etc). –> check, much less travel (my carbon footprint is probably smaller than 95% of climate scientists), my hand is at 85% (I can now chop an onion).
More time for the blog and writing in general. –> much time spent writing, but not so much for the blog.
Looking forward to 2019
My goals for 2019 aren’t much different from 2018. But here are some specifics.
I have started a new report Hurricanes and Climate Change (analogous to the sea level rise report), I will be publishing draft chapters in the coming months. This report is actually easier than the sea level one, since the field is not changing so rapidly.
I am also working on a series related to the recent U.S. National Climate Assessment, using that report as a focal point for addressing a number of problems with assessment reports, detection and attribution, etc. The first installment will be published Thursday, entitled: National Climate Assessment: A crisis of epistemic overconfidence. Stay tuned.
Working on the NCA series is affording me an opportunity to go back to my earlier posts (back in the day when I had more time for the blog), many of which raised important points but weren’t integrated into broader themes.
A special thanks to all guest posters: Nic Lewis, Javier, Andy West, Pat Michaels, Ross McKitrick, John Christy, Dan Hughes, Tomas Milanovic, Tony Brown, Donald Rapp, Garth Paltridge, Frank Bosse, Jim Steele, Phil Salmon, Jim Johnstone.
Here’s to a healthy, happy and productive 2019!