by Judith Curry
Happy New Year everyone! My ‘prognostications’, hopes and goals for 2018.
Well 2017 was quite a year, as the U.S. and rest of the world adapted to President Trump. It was quite a year for me personally also, my first year of retirement from university.
Prognostications (and hopes)
I won’t attempt to summarize 2017, but I will take a crack at a few prognostications, just for fun and to stimulate dialogue on these topics.
U.S. politics: I’m predicting that the midterm (2018) elections will not be particularly ‘partisan’, but rather the best candidates will be elected, with ‘character’ a major factor. Both the Republican and Democratic parties are in disarray. This is an opportunity for post partisanship in U.S. politics, and maybe some good candidates will be elected to the Senate and House.
Climate politics: I predict that in 2018 the climate dialogue in the U.S. will be dominated by litigation against federal and state governments and petroleum companies. The ‘blame game.’ President Trump will continue to ignore the issue, other than to troll the warmists whenever the weather in the US goes counter to the ‘alarm.’
Climate solutions: I predict that internationally, governments will re-prioritize providing reliable power in the face of extreme cold events. There will be a growing realization that we don’t have ‘solutions’ to the problem of bringing CO2 emissions down to zero in the near term. The focus will turn towards technological innovation and adaptation.
2018 climate: I predict that global average 2018 surface temperatures won’t be ‘top five’, i.e. cooler than the last few years. A cold winter for most of the U.S. (east of the Rockies). I predict an above normal, active Atlantic hurricane season. I predict that we will continue to see recovering sea ice extent in the Atlantic sector, with continued low sea ice extent in the Pacific sector (the stadium wave marches on).
Feminism: I predict (and hope) the U.S. movement to empower females will move away from playing the victim card and focus on bodies (e.g. pussy hats), and towards true empowerment where all females can strive to reach their own ambitious goals. I would also like to see a focus on the plight of truly oppressed females in the middle east, particularly Iran, and support for their basic freedoms.
JC’s goals
My main goals are:
Continue to build my business Climate Forecast Applications Network, with research focused on sub seasonal, seasonal and interannual prediction. Working with new clients on decadal and century scale climate issues.
Adapt to my retirement: less travel and more time for carving out things I want to do. More focus on health – my right hand is now at about 60% functionality (don’t ask me to chop an onion, etc).
More time for the blog and writing in general. Which is of course competing with the above two items. I will be tackling the ‘detection and attribution’ issue in a series of posts (first one will be posted later this week). Fingers crossed that I will have time to do what I hope to accomplish here. I will also be posting things that I am working on for clients — I was planning a series on sea level rise, but got sidelined with my neck/shoulder/arm/hand issue (this series is still in play).
Here’s to a healthy, happy and productive 2018!
Reblogged this on Climate Collections.
Looking forward to more of this for sure!
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/366150-wave-of-officials-leaving-epa-under-trump-report
The Trump Effect.
https://spectator.imgix.net/content/uploads/2017/01/Lemmings.jpg?auto=compress,enhance,format&crop=faces,entropy,edges&fit=crop&w=600&h=400
Judith and all, best wishes for 2018! I hope my pessimism is misplaced and we make significant strides towards post partisanship.
Re: Predictions and hopes for U.S. politics: “I’m predicting that the midterm (2018) elections will not be particularly ‘partisan’…. This is an opportunity for post partisanship in U.S. politics”.
I wish I could be so optimistic or hopeful. If the Senate race here -Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) is running for re-election- is any indication. the 2018 midterm elections will be hyper partisan, with D candidates running against DJT when they can, and the Rs running against BHO, Pelosi and Schumer.
For all practical purposes we already know who >95+% of the candidates are, and these people (including a high number of incumbents of both parties) have been “running” long before the Autumn 2017 fireworks of Wienstein et. al. brought some issues to the forefront.
Your “Climate Solutions” are extremely optimistic as well. A cold winter will be (rightly) described as “weather”, and thus will not shift the long term goals of the greens. We all have a lot of work to do to change the discussion to the realistic, so please keep up the good work. And best of luck and have fun with CFAN! Happy New Year!
Watch CCI (consumer confidence index). It’s at 17 year high. If it stays elevated, if jobs and incomes grow, if we achieve energy independence and oil stays $50/bbl and natural gas is cheap, and we throw clean coal back in the mix at least to restore our steel and cement industry to former glory, the party in the Whitehouse will be richly rewarded. There is shhit-ton of US economic activity been locked up by bad policy and the fruits of unlocking it will go on long past midterms. Everyone who isn’t in the Trump hysteria bubble knows this and expects Trump himself will be reelected in a real landslide. Of course if he grabs Angela Merkel or Theresa May by the P, or sends 11 million illegal Mexicans packing back to Mexico all bets are off. But I’m betting he won’t do anything the hysteric left imagined he would do.
David
I’m not familiar with US politics, but Trump is what the world needed to shake it from it’s political mediocrity. He is Marmite, one either loves or hates the man. Personally, I hated him as a candidate, but he’s the only political leader in my memory who has made real efforts to implement his campaign manifesto within days of his election. In my opinion, any decision is better than no decision, and he’s making decisions.
I’m now a UK Trump fan. And he’ll make a good deal more fans by kicking the metaphorical ‘sheet’ out of N. Korea, times long overdue for someone to stand up to tin pot dictators instead of appeasing them.
Simplistic, perhaps, but if he does manage to get America back to work, which I suspect he will, there will be a landslide victory for his second term.
I don’t believe Theresa May is the right person to work with him to develop US/UK relations in the long term, but she would do well to work closely with him in the meantime, and I suspect that’s well under way without the Conservative government revealing it to our left wing voters and MSM.
Trump is the first western leader of real character and conviction I can recall since Churchill. And I believe Lincoln, a great American president, managed a similar College victory despite getting only 40% of the popular vote.
PB, I follow these things now in semi retirement, albeit hardly a nuanced expert. I see the political differently, for many reasons. A few examples. Whitehouse in RI is expected deep blue territiory. But most of the Senate seats up are in purple or red territiory. What is needed is to prevent deeply flawed candidates like Roy Moore in Alabama from winning primaries (deeply flawed because as Alabama Head judge,of state supreme court defied SCOTUS— dunno about the women thing). We get good candidates, we Deplorables will get good results. The economy, stupid, to quote Clinton.
On Climate Wars, I see a sea change in process. Pause returning as skeptics predicted. ‘Climate science’ papers ever more absurd. Mitigation policies like intermittent renewables hiking erates and causing blackouts. Ma Nature and engineering reality beginning to bite, hard.
Harvard educated, it shows. Your categories of thinking in the ‘conservative’ arena are purely in the realm of those imparted by your indoctrination into American hegemony by Harvard. After all, that is the entire point of Harvard.
Roy Moore was the people’s candidate, and he was destroyed by a mere slander campaign.
Which means democracy is a joke.
Stick to Neo-Malthusianism, its more in you arena.
I look forward to your series on sea level rise. I also look forward to CU updating their graph on SLR which hasn’t been updated since 12/11/16. I’m just curious if it will look like the SLR graph by NASA, which has gone decidedly flat.
Why you think it will be much different than NASA or AVISO? and flat his bad news for you. It should be nose diving.
Happy New Year Judith. Good luck with your resolutions. And I hope your crystal ball is better than mine…
Looking at future investment opportunities and since polar bear fur probably isn’t ever coming back into popularity, a return to wool and the need for modern thermal clothing in preparation for the next 30 years of global cooling as the sun continues to cool could be an area for future growth opportunities. Some are predicting a spike in food prices by 2024 so instead of planning on retiring with a million in the bank, maybe consider $2M to be more like what you want to shoot for.
Judith
If you want to see truly oppressed women then Iran is not the place. You need to head to Saudi Arabia where they have only recently been given permission to drive by themselves and without a male escort from their family
Many Iranian women are somewhat liberated and westernised and would throw off their coverings in an instant if it weren’t for the religious police?
Moslem women in many parts of the middle east and Pakistan are also somewhat oppressed, especially in the more remote rural areas.
And isn’t it a tortology to want to spend time building your business whilst at the same time claiming you are retired? You are one or the other.
It would be great if you could spend a little more time on the blog. The denizens get restless and need new meat thrown to them every five or six days or they start to riot and fight amongst themselves.
Hope your hand will get better. What is the prognosis, or are your onion chopping days over for good?
Tonyb
Call it a career change; I have retired from academia. I now work for myself (i.e. call the shots), so its a very different situation.
Progress on my hand has stalled; the rest of the symptoms are much improved. At least my mousing capabilities have returned :)
Your improvements have been evidenced by the increased posting for which I’m grateful – you do so elevate the content and discussions.
The “political correctness” that vexes many goes back to WWI. Try this history: https://www.academia.org/the-origins-of-political-correctness/ or Google “origins of political correctness.” Or Google “roots of political correctness”. It’s surprisingly simple to find information. (I have management degree but loved art history where I had a course, “Social Radicalism & The Arts.”)
FWIW I certainly second the notion of Tonyb to do what you can to spend more time on the blog. The denizens here need relief from the denialist multitudes on other skeptic sites. We need a trusted skeptic voice who can resist the temptation to pander to unreconstructed contrarians.
Progress on my hand has stalled; the rest of the symptoms are much improved. At least my mousing capabilities have returned :)
You might want to try voice recognition software. I find it’s often easier than typing on a phone. All smart phones appear to come with it. I still prefer to type but I often find it useful. The late Carl Sagan did a lot of his writing by talking into a tape recorder (I’m pretty sure I read that in one of his biographies).
I don’t know the nature of your hand problem. For me, I get carpal tunnel symptoms and pushups give me prompt relief. Even limited or partial pushups help some.
tonyb, yes, I wanted to make the same point about Iran versus Saudi Arabia. With Trump there is little criticism of Saudi Arabia because they are a major weapons market and I suspect Trump has other business interests in that area. No immigration ban for them either, of course. Iran’s the baddy now, so we have to blame them for all the world’s ills. The world view distorted by financial interests.
Obama bowed to the king of SA and Hillary crawled around Riyadh wearing her hijab soliciting donations for the Clinton family slush fund. The Saudis bowed to Trump and a standing tall, hair blowing in the breeze Melania . Obama shipped tons of cash to the irrational Iranian mullahs under cover of darkness. Protected mullah Hezbollah terrorist surrogates from the U.S. Justice Dept. Gave repressive irrational terror regime a clear and sure path to nuclear weapons and ICBMs. Backed the mullahs against the Iranian people.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1293232/Sakineh-Mohammadi-Ashtiani-How-Iran-legally-stone-women-death.html
Hopefully none of our allies where we have buddies and provide weapons do that, or Trump would tell them, right? (cough, Saudi Arabia, cough).
SA is reforming, Iran mullahs cracking down and shooting folks in the streets.
There is no reason to expect an end to partisanship as long as most of the population supports political solutions to everything, including racism, sexism, inequality, health care, old age, retirement, trade imbalances, job creation, education, environmental protection, hunger, disease, ignorance, climate change, bad leaders, etc. Those who believe in political solutions will continue to be disappointed when the next batch of politicians proves to be as bad or worse than those who came before. Politics is a destructive religion that inevitably leads to destructive ends, regardless of who is elected.
Partisanship will decline when people begin to abandon politics.
“There is no reason to expect an end to partisanship as long as most of the population supports political solutions to everything….. ”
Ah, right.
So pray tell ….. how does one solve a global problem without the use of politics?
Take away Al Gore’s jet and his cheeseburger card.
How do we solve them with politics? Give money to foreign dictators.
“… political solutions to everything.”
If political office was about efficiently filling potholes (solving problems) who would want the job? And how could we get those few preciously un-charismatic people elected?
Bottom up polycentric governance for restoring soils and ecosystems. .
e.g. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/psj.12212/full
But that would involve not being an urban doofus hipster who never saw a world government they didn’t like.
A well as real business producing real innovation in energy systems.
Hi Judy. All the best to you and Peter for the New Year!!! Keep up your outstanding work. 😀👍🏻 Roger Sr
As a retired teacher of high school physical science, I at one time idolized Bill Nye. He has fallen far in my opinion, and you, Judith, are a prime example of a science communicator that has replaced him in my view. Thank you for your even-handed and thoughtful analyses. I encourage you to continue as the voice of climatic reason in a very partisan discussion. I wish your hand continued improvement.
2018 looks like it is going to start very warm despite the La Niña.
SOI gets ready for a top-5 2018:
https://i.imgur.com/RF08rld.png
JCH: You are not a newbie in the field of ENSO. Why do you make this kind of misinformation? I’m quite sure that you know about the delay (3…4 month) of the response of the GMST to ENSO.
Top 5, Frank, not hottest or top 2 like last year so he is factoring the lag in, cold start, usually a colder year but if that SOI keeps going down like it looks he might be right over the 12 months.
Imagine what the prediction would be if it was still high, possibly only a top 10 year.
One imagines that top 5 does mean he is predicting 5th place next year.
If thes cold spells were to cause lasting, meaningful temp drop in USHCN the algorithms are going to be working overtime.
Zeke will have to adjust the past 5F down instead of 3.
Or the pause will recur quicker.
You’re betting on a delay? Best of luck.
Zeke will continue improving the temperature record. Your miserable smears will not deter him.
Looks like 2010 is number 5. Annual mean of 70. Takes a 69 to go below, and 69 would be very cold year. To get a 69 you have to have a few very cold months.
2010: 74 80 92 85 73 63 59 63 59 69 78 46
These are the La Niña months since the 14-16 El Niño ended – 2016: 100 88 89 90 82/ 2017: 90 87 ****(looks like 90, maybe even 90+.)
Jan 2018 is looking about the same. So far, the 17-18 La Niña is a toasty bust. Looking like like maybe a sure thing for the 2nd warmest La Niña year in the instrument record. Brr. You guys are rough.
It’s a graph of current data; to you that’s “misinformation”. Noted.
JCH: your hyperventilation is meaningful! You wrote this sentence:”2018 looks like it is going to start very warm despite the La Niña.” and this is misleading indeed because the start of the year with a LaNina and the temperatures in the same time say nothing about an impact of ENSO on GMST. If you try to educate yourself see http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022/meta and in tab.1 you find the time gap which is of interest.
And for the Hausfather et. al paper it’s worth reading the conclusions: “Given the inherent uncertainties it would be premature to adoptthe coastal hybrid record as a historical record of sea surfacetemperature. The limited spatial resolution of the correction limits the utility of the record for estimating temperatures at a sub-global scale, and the changing station coverage in the 19th centurycertainly biases the record prior to 1880.”
In other words: small evidence… Just for the record… ;-)
LMAO.
One of your better replies!
“Zeke will have to adjust the past 5F down instead of 3.
Or the pause will recur quicker.”
angech…
I note the lack of a (sarc) tag.
So you subscribe to the “Conspiracy” theory as the primary driver of AGW do you?
Have you made such a comment on ATTP?
FI:
“A special thanks to JCH both for help and stirring me up the most with his views.
Very motivating.”
Do I detect “H” in your response?
“Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.” Robert A. Heinlein
Mostly I ascribe it to the stupidity of global warming nutbags.
Best bet for 2018 would be the same as 2017, which would make 2018 second or third.
Out of the top five needs a lot of cooling, I would say unlikely.
We could count the number of time the monthly GISS comes in under 70.
One or two would be likely, but to average under 70, I’ll buy another coat.
“Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.” Robert A. Heinlein
Right back at you A”o”.
Best bet for 2018 would be the same as 2017, which would make 2018 second or third. …
People should look at last year’s predictions.
As the Australian BOM itself says – the 30 day SOI average is volatile – look to the 90 day average. There is an oddness to the prognostications of JCH. A single number cannot predict ENSO. Especially one taken out of any rational context.
There is no geopotential energy in the western Pacific – recharge is yet to occur and an El Nino is as yet impossible.
https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/elnino2015/1997vs2015-latest-still.jpg
The polar modes are drifting negative – spinning up ocean winds and gyres. Something that seems related to solar UV/ozone chemistry – and that signals a return to higher frequency and intensity La Nina – and a cooler Pacific – this century as solar intensity declines from a 1000 year high.
The La Nina will intensify over the Austral summer, drift in the Austral autumn and re-intensify in the latter part of 2018. It will with Rayleigh-Bénard convection modulate marine stratocumulus and the Earth’s energy budget over time cooling the planet – or at the least being a cooling influence.
e.g. http://users.clas.ufl.edu/rrusso/gly6932/Oppo_etal_Nature09.pdf
“A single number cannot predict ENSO. ”
Yet there are people who place religious faith in a single arbitrary global number that is suppose to predict climate change.
7-day change:
https://i.imgur.com/c6wsOO0.png
So far, not latching. It’s weak into mid JAN and it’s running out of time.
https://i.imgur.com/cDivT2Q.png
More on the emaciating La Niña –
From:
https://i.imgur.com/GWL40Gy.png
To:
https://i.imgur.com/kL0gbHj.png
I am predicting more rational approaches to electrical power generation from the Western nations. Poor performance and value can be hidden and/or ignored in the short term. But someone keeps paying the bills.
A few politicians in other countries are pulling the fire alarms. They see costs and problems and realize the just so story of wind and solar has plenty of hopes but little in the way of capitalist value throughput.
So it will be a good year, with people getting back to the business of producing value and cutting back on dreams of magical solutions. And part of this will be because of President Trump as he shifts gears and drives our energy policies in new directions.
I sure hope you are right, especially about feminism. Best wishes for 2018 and a full recovery to your hand.
Good luck with all the progs Judith in 2018. Here in the UK the ultra nationalists are ripping us apart with this Brexit chaos. AGW idealogically becomes ever more ingrained in society and thought. Any simple questioning of any aspect is met with rants of heresy.
To read and hear your voice of reason really speaking as a rational scientist is a great source of support. A sentinel of sanity in the climate change wilderness of nonsense. Keep going Judith we need you.
Kevin Martin.
I hope you have an AWESOME New Year, Dr. Curry. You’ve been a boon to truth in climate science.
Glad to hear that your hand is getting better and that you plan to resume blogging. I missed reading your blog every morning.
Good luck to you in 2018!
Keep on posting.
Judith,
Also best wishes for the new year.
I’m back, although retired. How many interesting things to look forward towards.
Tonyb,
I look forward to exploring areas of interest with you in the new year.
Scott
Something we can all do in the New Year:
Comment now on the draft National Climate Assessment
http://www.cfact.org/2018/01/01/comment-now-on-the-draft-national-climate-assessment/
I suggest a commenting strategy that focuses on the so-called “Key Messages” in the draft and give a few examples. Here are some excerpts:
“The fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) is out in draft form for public review and comment, well sort of anyway. Commenting is unfortunately a relatively complex process, but I urge people to do it anyway. The deadline is January 31, 2018 so there is still time for carefully crafted comments.”
“For example, here is the very first Key Message from Chapter 2. This quotation includes the line numbers and is how it looks in the draft, which is rather awkward to read.
“Chapter 2. Our Changing Climate
Page 57
1 Key Message 1: Global Climate Is Changing Rapidly As a Result of Human Activities
2 Key Message 1: Global climate is changing rapidly compared to the pace of natural variations
3 in climate that have occurred throughout Earth’s history. Global average temperature has
4 increased by about 1.7°F from 1901 to 2016, and observational evidence does not support
5 any credible natural explanations for this amount of warming; instead, the evidence
6 consistently points to human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse or heat-trapping
7 gases, as the dominant cause.“
My comment: The claim that there is no evidence of a natural explanation is simply false. The literature is full of discussions and hypotheses regarding just such explanations.”
There is more of course.
I urge all skeptics to comment.
I meant to include this excerpt as well:
“Given that the draft NCA4 is over 1500 pages long, it can be hard to decide what to comment on. I recommend focusing on what are called Key Messages, as there are only about 100 or so of these. Most of the numerous draft Chapters have just 3 to 6 Key Messages. This means that once a Chapter is selected, one can focus on just a few Key Messages.”
“
Indeed. They include from 1901 to begin with so they blow away their conclusion before they’ve even started.
Happy New Year, Judith. Looks like CFAN is a success.
I hope the 2018 midterms will be less partisan, but the early auguries are not promising.
The climate predictions are bold and interesting.
* global average 2018 surface temperatures won’t be ‘top five’
Current multi-variate enso index is slightly indicative of La Nina.
But ENSOs do tend to fluctuate.
More importantly, oceanic heat content indicates much of the past five years have had heat coming out of the oceans. That could continue, but reversion to the mean or even stasis would support a less warm 2018.
* cold winter for most of the U.S. (east of the Rockies)
That’s certainly been the long wave pattern so far.
* above normal, active Atlantic hurricane season
CFAN proprietary model. If this verifies, CFAN will get a big boost.
* recovering sea ice extent in the Atlantic sector
* low sea ice extent in the Pacific sector (the stadium wave marches on)
Do CO2 enthusiasts have differing predictions? And why?
Probably the best way to help the ‘oppressed’ woman of Iran would be lifting the Illegal American sanctions.
Wrong. Congress has constitutional responsibility for immigtation and naturalization under Article 1 section 8.4. It has most recently exercised that responsibility via the Immigration and Naturalization Act of 1952 as amended in 1965. 8USC§1101 expressly confers on the President the right to prohibit entry for any period of time to any foreigner or class of foreigners when he in his sole judgement deems it in the national interest. Don’t get mislead by the goofball 9th circuit. That is why Scotus allowed this to go into effect pending litigation and appeal. Even Alan Dershowitz says Trump will win at SCOTUS. There is not even a little bit of grey in the law.
I’m referring to the economic sanctions.
But, then again, Trump and his Islam ban–sort of laughable.
Trump wants to still do the whole regime change and bombing thing throughout the middle east, which is the source of the whole terror and migration crisis.
I’m so ready for this whole system to dissolve. New face, same ol’ garbage.
Uh, Nichols, do keep up. Most of the Iran economic sanctions (except those against specific individuals involvd in the also UN sanctioned ballistic missile issues) were lifted by Obama and have not been reimposed by Trump. Part of the bad nuclear deal.
I note in passing that citing actual US law seems to have a chilling effect on your nonsense, since you segued to different but still easily refutable nonsense rather than continuing on your original BS theme.
Hint. Check your facts before posting here, like I do. Less embarassment.
Ah, well, Mr R, I am glad to be able to help out a smart scientist like yourself with a few clarifications. You know, scientists often fall into misconceptions with politics; scientists are used to operating with fixed systems, and laws which describe those systems, whereas politics is a mass of indirection, deception, cunning, and often the laws do not exist or are flagrantly violated, even obfuscating. It is easy for the scientist to become misled.
In fact, the sanction do exist, as you note:
In addition:
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/02/iran-trump-nuclear-deal/515979/
Trump is most certainly waging economic warfare against Iran. As well as Russia, North Korea, and a host of countries.
Economic sanctions ARE warfare. They led America into both world wars.
This is beyond reckless. It is criminal.
Now this statement of yours is telling. The Iran nuclear deal is almost internationally recognized as one the finest accomplishments of dopey OB. Against the will of the Oligarchs he led the peace. Perhaps the only sections of the world not in agreement are those who want full scale war with Iran. Now who would that be? Those who drive America to war, who are not fooling anyone.
http://goo.gl/McMnsz
Are you on the jingo for war with Iran, R? Is that why you have your dander up at my post? I hardly get the feeling I tramped your sense of feminist outrage, so what is it?
War with Iran, North Korea bring America to its knees and will give us our 1917 St. Petersburg moment. I would hate to be one of the group of warmongers that led us to trillions in debt, millions wounded, slews dead, at that moment.
More examples of how that scientific mind gets in the way of understanding (2 + 2 is indeed not always 5):
Or,
http://fortune.com/2018/01/01/iran-protests-economy/
Who is economically sanctioned (as a terrorist).
See, R, America wants it to look like the innocent little lamb. “It is the Iranian government who is oppressing the people”.
(2 + 2 again)
Sanctions are to my mind the greatest crime against humanity, bar outright genocide. Despite their proven ineffectiveness, against Cuba, Southern Africa, Poland, Iraq, Iran and Myanmar, they are deployed as a cowardly way to satisfy mob opinion by being seen to do something, no matter how futile. The despotic tyrants remain unaffected while the people suffer. Iran is, after Putin, Assad’s chief supporter, and after North Korea, the most dangerous rogue state in the world. Sanctions are not the way to deal with Iran but the mullahs don’t deserve a pat on the back either.
I’m predicting that the midterm (2018) elections will not be particularly ‘partisan’, but rather the best candidates will be elected, with ‘character’ a major factor.
I think it is too soon to predict much of anything. Primary voters tend to be more extreme than the parties generally, so it will depend in large part about which candidates get promoted to the general. The recent Alabama special election is an example, and there are many others.
Also, the elections are riding on whether voters like their tax reductions (which don’t apply to those voters who already didn’t pay income taxes), and whether the companies continue their increased investment. Right now, all that can be said on those points is (hopefully informed and intelligent) conjecture.
Wish you all the best for 2018 – Stay healthy – please. :)
The midterm election will be extremely partisan. The Dems are desperate to the point of derangement.
The economy will continue to boom, after eight years of the Obama-Pelosi-Reed- Schumer teams’ pathetic average GDP growth of a lame 1.6%, that came at the cost of ten trillion dollars added to the national debt and Fed co-operation with gazillions in QE and effectively negative interest rates. That paltry performance was supposed to be the new norm. The Dems told us the economy would collapse if Trump won. That ain’t working for them. Stock market gains and real estate values have added over 5 trillion$ to the folks pocketbooks. Two million jobs, so far! Tax cuts! Only for the rich? Naw. The folks will see past the Dem controlled media lies.
Dems are way on the outs, so the Repubs have the great advantage of incumbency. Along with a thriving economy and jobs! jobs! jobs!, they will have a positive message to run on. The Dems will have to rely on firing up their base with the evil-racist-Republican party-of-the-rich BS to turn out their drones in huge numbers. Here they have something going for them, because their base is rabid and not too bright. Russia Russia Russia and the impeachment BS will have turned into a liability.
The Dems are making a big mistake in favoring illegal immigrants over the legal inhabitants. The perpetual Dem pols of Los Angeles are whining about the DOJ not giving them a few million in law enforcement grants, while they will spend ten millions of taxpayers’ hard earned money on shyster lawyers to defend illegal aliens facing deportation. WTF is that about? Defend the black folks in Watts and Compton. Do something about the homeless hordes on LA streets. The Dems are really dim.
Don,
You were right on Trump and I was wrong (kind of). The wife and I didn’t vote for him (and certainly not Hillary), but given the same choice today we would vote for him in a heartbeat. He can be his own worst enemy sometimes but you have to admire his resilience.
Pruitt at EPA is as good as it gets. Mattis, MacMaster and Kelly are the real dream team. Gorsuch ++++, Nicki Haley A+. Hopefully my former boss, Rex Tillerson, stays the course and comes through. I was disappointed in Rex on the Paris Agreement stuff, but understand what he had to deal with at Exxon to survive probably shaped him to some extent. The progress on getting control of over regulation alone is worth a bunch.
The dems are stepping in it big time on Russia collusion, immigration, Iran, tax reform and their fetish with Trump hate uber alles. The’ve got nothing to offer without ditching Bernie, Pochahontas, Kamela et al.
+1
You were (kind of wrong), Mark? I don’t get it. Why would anyone bother to vote, if not for Trump or the old crooked thang? A vote is a terrible thing to waste. I hope you at least wrote in someone important, like Ava Gardner.
I predict the left loon “progressive” wing of the Dem party is going to choose the 2020 nominee. Sen. Left Loon “Pokeherhauntus” Warren has already banked $13 million in campaign slush funds, while the corporate crony Dem party establishment DNC is de facto bankrupt. In the proverbial hole, not collecting enough donations to pay the bills. It’s going to be the naive internationalist Open Borders Social Justice Warriors’ stifling silly socialism, against a booming Trump economy, The Wall, and World Peace through American firepower. Are you going to be with us, Mark?
You were (kind of wrong), Mark? I don’t get it. Why would anyone bother to vote, if not for Trump or the old hillary thang? A vote is a terrible thing to waste. I hope you at least wrote in someone important, like Ava Gardner.
I predict the left loon “progressive” wing of the Dem party is going to choose the 2020 nominee. Sen. Left Loon “Pokeherhauntus” Warren has already banked $13 million in campaign slush funds, while the corporate crony Dem party establishment DNC is de facto bankrupt. In the proverbial hole, not collecting enough donations to pay the bills. It’s going to be the naive internationalist Open Borders Social Justice Warriors’ stifling silly socialism, against a booming Trump economy, The Wall, and World Peace through American firepower. Are you going to be with us, Mark?
Don,
I think the lefty dems will do exactly as you predict. In which case Trump will have my vote without equivocation.
Hopefully the deep state a..holes don’t get him and we continue on the current anti-regulatory pro growth trajectory.
It would be great to watch Comey, McCabe, Hillary, Obama and their flunkies get what they deserve for trying to steal the election. It looks like even the CNN legal guy is calling for increased investigation. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/12/31/cnn_legal_analyst_paul_callan_president_trump_is_right_about_fbi.html?utm_source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_social_rail&spotim_referrer=social_rail
Notice how the interviewer keeps trying to get him to back off, but he doesn’t.
Don,
This piece by Victor Davis Hanson should nails it pretty well:
https://amgreatness.com/2018/01/02/the-view-of-the-blinkered/
Dr. Curry ==> Are you interested in, and will you have time for, any Guest Essays?
YES!
YES! I am working on a guest essay lambasting the incessant dogmatic CAGW evangelism of our resident huffpo drone.
Don
I hope there is a heads up because I don’t want to miss it. A good dose of common sense is good for the soul.
“YES! I am working on a guest essay lambasting the incessant dogmatic CAGW evangelism of our resident huffpo drone.”
My own view is that climate wars discussions (arguments) like this are no longer useful, and certainly are not interesting or constructive, particularly when the climate argument is a proxy for clashing world views (i.e. Dem vs Repub, lib vs conservative, warmist vs skeptic).
So, I hope the “guest essay” finds its way to WUWT or elsewhere and not here.
I like Kip’s essays because they concentrate on clearing the record on factual issues and approach climate issues from this direction – eg. the post on sea level rise. For the most part, this approach keeps personalities out of the discussion and one can even learn something in the process. So, if possible, I prefer Mosher vs Turbulent Eddie, Jim D vs climatereason. These people are knowledgeable and generally keep things on a higher level.
You should submit a self-righteous and completely humorless Guest Sermon on climate discussion etiquette, or whatever you want to call it. Maybe include a list of other types of discussions that are no longer useful.
“Working with new clients on decadal and century scale climate issues”
The sooner that everyone is aware of the scale of the next solar minimum, the better.
I was interested in the term “stadium wave,” so read more about it on your website. I was wondering if you clarify the meaning of two things for me, from this 2013 press release: “The removal of the long-term trend from the data effectively removes the response from long term climate forcing such as anthropogenic greenhouse gases” // what is the process by which you all “removed the long-term trend” from the information you were looking at? How is that accomplished? What was the rationale for removing that? // Secondly, your co-author states: “The stadium wave signal predicts that the current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s,” Wyatt said, the paper’s lead author. // What is the definition of “pause” and have the years since he said this (2014, 2015, 2016) reflected what you would define as a pause?
In the paper, the process is described, basically linear detrending. My current thinking on this is not to do the detrending on these modes, one of my employees has a paper ready to submit on this topic; more on this once it is published.
“The stadium wave is a term that refers to a hypothesis of multidecadal climate variability describing climate behavior as a network of synchronized ocean, ice, and atmospheric indices, through which a signal propagates sequentially in an ordered lead-lag relationship – hence, the allusive term, “stadium wave”.
The fundamental view upon which the stadium-wave hypothesis is built is that over long timescales, “parts” of a system organize into a network of interacting sub-systems resulting in collective behavior. Intra-network interactions yield positive and negative feedbacks, together generating an oscillatory behavior.” http://www.wyattonearth.net/
All over the planet there are aperiodic oscillations – e.g. https://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/all/
The stadium wave hypothesis is that these are not isolated systems but globally coupled conceptually as nodes on a network across which a signal propagates. It is one of those ideas that are obvious in retrospect. The individual indices are perhaps better described as quasi standing waves – not an actual standing wave but a metaphor for patterns – aperiodic oscillations – that persist across time and space and then shift again. Synchonization of chaotic oscillators governs the collective behavior of the climate system.
“You can see spatio-temporal chaos if you look at a fast mountain river. There will be vortexes of different sizes at different places at different times. But if you observe patiently, you will notice that there are places where there almost always are vortexes and they almost always have similar sizes – these are the quasi standing waves of the spatio-temporal chaos governing the river. If you perturb the flow, many quasi standing waves may disappear. Or very few. It depends.” Tomas Milanovic
I’ve heard that 90% of climate studies are not worthwhile.
define worthwhile
I would suggest that AMO functions as an amplified negative feedback to changes in solar plasma strength.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/association-between-sunspot-cycles-amo-ulric-lyons
Happy New Year Denizens and others – Philip
Annual surface temperature records reflect the state of the Pacific Ocean during the year – warm or cool surfaces – and on soil moisture. The latter involves very basic physics of latent and sensible heat.
A much better idea is a 13 month running mean and tropospheric temps – that are not affected by changing latent heat flux from land surfaces.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_December_2017_v6.jpg
The atmosphere and oceans will continue cooling largely the result of closed cell Rayleigh–Bénard convection over the upwelling regions of the eastern Pacific.
Climate Change and the Iranian Protests
While liberals are fiddling while North Korea and Iran conspire to develop nuclear weapons, distracting the world from the real threats it faces by manufacturing this
Global Warming nonsense, President Trump is busy developing a battle plan that will end the Evil Empire once and for all. His solution? The exact one that President Reagan used to defeat the far more formidable USSR President Trump plans to use the free market and the industrial mite of America to flood the world with oil. President Trump wants America to not only be energy independent, President Trump wants America to be energy DOMINANT!!!
https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2018/01/07/climate-change-and-the-iranian-protests/
As a fan of yours, Dr Curry, who is interested in your well-being, I’d be interested to know what the hand problem is about. Given the highly technical nature of your blog, it’s a pity you can’t do videocasts like Mike Rowe.
Scoliosis messes up shoulder girdle, causes scapular disfunction, puts stress on neck, pinches nerves in cervical region, messes up my hand. :)
Judy, Maybe this would help? Philip:
https://www.clear-institute.org/blog/can-a-chiropractor-fix-scoliosis/
https://halochiro.org/meet-the-doctors
Dear Judith,
wish you the best for your company in 2018, and your health as well.
Please keep up with this blog, it is indispensable to all free thinkers.
I have one question for you: I read on a CAGW-oriented blog (in Italian) they qualify you have been paid by the GWPF to tell lies about climate models… is that true or not?… I mean, that you have done any paid work for or on behalf of the Global Warming Policy Foundation?
All I could find on GWPF’s web site is a video of you.
Thanks for clarifying this, I appreciate it.
R.
Hi Robert, i have received no $$ from GWPF, although I have given a presentation at one of their events and they have asked to publish several of my (already written essays) and I have written a foreword to several of their essays.
My opinions are my own, and my arguments stand on their own strengths (or not). This is independent of who pays for any of the services of my company.