Week in review – water edition

by Judith Curry

A round-up of recent articles from around the world about water — too little, too much, plus new technology and policy ideas.

Too little

Syrian water wars: Damascus still without water as battle for springs enters endgame [link]

SYRIA: Official says crucial #WaterSupply will soon be repaired through fragile ceasefire [link]

USA CALIFORNIA: Weeks of rain are rapidly reviving drought-ravaged lakes – [link]…

INDIA: Chennai #WaterCrisis: Chennai faces acute #WaterCrisis; 60% deficit in northeast monsoon [link]

WORST DROUGHT in 900 YEARS: Investing in water around the #Mena region  [link]

MENA: Climate Change Further Threatens MENA Water Security [link]

SRI LANKA warned to expect worst #Drought disaster in four decades[link]

Climate change May Impact Hindu Kush-Himalaya Water Supply: Report [link]

It’s time to stop overspending our freshwater budget [link] …

Limits to global groundwater use [link]

NIGERIA: UN envoy @SRWatSan warns of #WaterCrisis in megacity Lagos; 1 in 10 have #WaterAccess [link]

INDIA: As #Ganga water level dips, farmers encroach land for farming destroying #Wetland habitat [link]

Africa’s biggest #hydropower plant may soon run out of water: [link]

MOZAMBIQUE: 16% of reservoir capacity and falling #WaterLevels threaten biggest #SubSaharan Hydro Plant – Bloomberg [link]

Somalis trek 60 km for water as drought and conflict bite [link]

AFGHANISTAN: #ClimateChange Fuels Insurgency; #Drought leaves 10% of land farmable  [link]

CENTRAL ASIA: Water problems and future [link]

PALESTINE WEST BANK WATER CRISIS: Israel cut back on already inadequate water supply to Palestinians [link]

Silently, Quickly, and Completely: The World’s Lakes in Peril [link]

The villages at the heart of India’s interstate #WaterConflict [link]

Too much

HOUSTON: Nice long read from @HoustonChron on sort of a “where do we go from here?” with respect to flooding: [link]

UK: Major flooding in UK now likely every year, warns lead climate adviser [link]

TAMPA: New study shows big parts of Tampa will be underwater by 2040 (including its main hospital) [link]

NEW YORK CITY: #NYC braces for effects of #climatechange with new flood maps [link]

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise (2016) [link]

This “dam inundation mapping tool” models effects of proposed dams on #Irrawaddy, #Salween, #Mekong, and Red River: [link]

Find out how #Ghana is turning the tide against flood risk through strengthened forecasting: [link]

Big NYT piece on #coastal #flooding [link]

 

Policies

World Bank: Protecting our water sources brings a wealth of benefits [link]

WATER BUSINESS STRATEGY: Anheuser-Busch, Coca-Cola, MillerCoors Take On #WaterSecurity · [link]

CENTRAL ASIA: #Turkmenistan to head Int’l Fund for Saving Aral Sea [link] …

Ban Ki-moon gathers heads of state for political response to water scarcity [link]

#Water & #Climate Diplomacy – Integrative Approaches for Adaptive Action in Transboundary River Basins [link]

WATER MANAGEMENT INNOVATION: How the US western water wars may end [link]

URBAN WATER INFRASTRUCTURE: Comparing #WaterUtility finances & economic concerns across US cities [link]

Report: Deadly Miscues on the Brahmaputra an Argument for More Transboundary Cooperation http://j.mp/2dtxbbq

WATER POLITICS MATTERS: #WaterShortages bring death, social injustice, political instability & economic stagnation [link]

BANGLADESH:  water resources management issues [link]

INDIA: Water as a weapon. Severe #WaterShortages & allocation conflicts threaten federalism & future socio-economic development http://www.policyforum.net/water-as-a-weapon/ … #SDG6

Long term plan for the Colorado River and Lake Mead [link]

SOUTHEAST ASIA: #Mekong River initiative will highlight values of #Biodiversity, #Ecosystems [link]

SOUTH ASIA: #India Govt hails @WorldBank decision on #IndusWaterTreaty [link]

Collective Management of Water Resources in Coastal Bangladesh: Formal and Substantive Approaches [link]

PAKISTAN: Big dams needed to address #WaterScarcity issue: [link]

How infrastructure helps determine risk of violence after drought [link]

UGANDA: Building #Drought Resilience Through Land and #WaterManagement  [link]

Droughts don’t have to spell disaster. El Niño countries, take note [link]

MEKONG BLOCKAGE: Vietnam sweats bullets as China and Laos dam the #Mekong  [link]

TRANSBOUNDARY COOPERATION: #Pakistan officials call for water agreement with #Afghanistan [link]

THIRD POLE FULCRUM: ‘With thousands of dams upstream #China has water as weapon against #India’ [link]

CHINA: Crisis #WaterManagement in #China: Key to Political Control? [link]

Technologies (successes, promises and failures)

ISRAEL: How did a country that’s 60% desert achieve water independence? [link]

In #Nepal a #climateaction project revives a village where many had migrated out of in search of #cleanwater:  [link]

SOURCE WATER PROTECTION: Improving #WaterSecurity Through Nature-Based Solutions  [link]

Can dams replace glaciers? [link]

INDIA: @WorldBank Loan to India Leads to Water-Damaging Projects and abusive #HumanRights practice [link]

IRAQ #MosulDam – Bigger Problem Than ISIS? 1.5M at risk of dam failure: grouting an engineering disaster [link]

Statement on Mosul Dam Emergency Preparedness | Baghdad, Iraq – Embassy of the United States [link]  …

RIVER RESTORATION | Tearing down America’s dams — and what comes in their wake: [link]

LOCAL SOLUTIONS: In a City of Big Water Projects, Is Chicago’s Little #GreenInfrastructure Working? [link]

How to make hydropower more environmentally friendly [link]

WATER DISRUPTION – ROUTINE MAINTENANCE: Water Woes in #Malaysia’s Klang Valley – 4 million without water  [link]…

Danger of #Kariba Dam collapse, which would be catastrophic for Africa: [link]

China shelves #hydro #dam scheme at head of Nu-Thanlwin-#Salween #River [link]

WATER MONITORING: The Internet of Taps? [link]

Rain gardens to the rescue: How Detroiters are working together to protect water infrastructure. [link]

Mekong Delta to have five water plants to cope with drought  [link]

Regional powers back studies on impact of Ethiopia’s Nile dam. [link]

 

69 responses to “Week in review – water edition

  1. Pingback: Week in review – water edition – Enjeux énergies et environnement

  2. Pingback: Week in review – water edition | Robbie's Blog

  3. Tampa flooded by 2040. The city assumed 2.5 feet of SLR by 2050 and found 15000 people affected. Nonsense. The Tampa Bay area has a long record tide gauge at St. Petersburg. Just checked it. 2.6mm/yr and no acceleration. By 2050 that is 3.4 inches, about a 10th of what the study assumed.
    The big threat is a hurricane pushing a storm surge up Tampa Bay. Nothing to do with SLR.

    • Thanks Rud. Good reality check.

      It makes me wonder: when did science teachers stop teaching students how to do reality checks? Or is it only social scientists (which now apparently includes 97% climate scientists) which have no idea of how to do or now interest in doing reality checks?

  4. “Silently, Quickly, and Completely: The World’s Lakes in Peril”

    According to this article, lakes are warming faster than the oceans and the atmosphere.
    Has the “missing heat” been hiding in lakes?
    Seems odd.
    However, it is silent, quick, and complete.
    I feel the peril.

  5. Even without a hint of AGW 95% of these articles would be pertinent since populations have located in areas incapable of supporting development associated with growth of the 21st century.
    Some regions experienced increases in population of 300% or more since 1950. Added to that are the pressures from modern life and local and national
    agricultural needs. It is unreasonable to think water availability has an infinite capacity.
    Regardless of what is happening in the atmosphere, the land itself has a natural breaking point.

    • Ceres, the alarmists count upon people not knowing these facts so that they can blame Everything upon ‘man-made’ climate change.

    • Depends on where, but your point is quite valid. Egypts water capaciy has not increased since the 1970 completion of the Aswan dam and Lake Nasser. Its population in 1970 was ~34 million. It is now ~94 million. Similar stories in many now ‘overpopulated’ dry places. Since globally ~70% of available water is used for agricultural irrigation, the problem is abated by ‘virtual water’ in the form of agricultural imports from places where water is not scarce like the north American midwest, southern Brazil and (sometimes in some places) Australia. Problem then becomes one of import food affordability, as many overpopulated dry places are also ‘poor’. Did a rather in depth analysis in the water chapter of Gaia’s Limits published early 2012.

      • I would not put overpopulated in quotation marks. Most of these problems arise from overpopulation and poor governance. What the world needs is a new religious prophet who transmits a message from the gods “ok, you reproduced enough”.

      • Keeping Middle Easterners in the Middle East would force them to come to grips with the issue. Letting them migrate will just let them keep multiplying without thought.

  6. Interesting article above regarding the biggest drought in the MENA region in 900 years. That includes north Africa and the middle east.

    The amount of water per person has dropped dramatically which enables me to point out this appears to be because the number of people have soared. Syria for instance had some 5 million people fifty Years ago and some 22 million prior to the recent exodus. Most of the mena region is the same as regards the popluation explosion currently taking place.

    They would have to have the friendliest climate in the world in order to meet the water needs of their escalating population.

    Talk of drought in California reminds me that upon reading the mid nineteenth century US weather review journals, there appeared to have been some 250000 people in California. I believe they are now heading for 40 million. Add in general agriculture and the insistence on golf courses in semi arid areas and rainfall would have to increase dramatically over past patterns for there to be sufficient water for everyone’s needs,

    Tonyb

    • tonyb,

      Speaking of California and water….

      Harvard U’s huge endowment’s investment fund recently bought the water rights to some of the best aquifers in the state. The following article ks almost correct – Harvard actually bought the rights to drill arbitrarily deep days before the law changed restricting well depths in the state. This is a very lucrative deal for Harvard. In CA we have a true race to the bottom – corporate farmers with deep straws can suck water out of the shrinking aquifers while their neighbors go bone dry.

      The rich get richer.

      http://www.reuters.com/article/harvard-water-idUSL1N0V02Z320150122

  7. All this stuff is just down in the weeds, bla bla bla, and irrelevant for rational policy analysis unless it is converted to economic terms – i.e. costs and benefits.

    And who trusts the climate scientists’ precipitation projections anyway?

    What is needed, to justify climate policies, a valid damage function. The links recently published NAS report https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24651/valuing-climate-changes-updating-estimation-of-the-social-cost-of suggest to me that they are clutching at dwindling, skinny straws trying to find any justification for mitigation.
    https://www.nap.edu/read/24651/chapter/8
    https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/peseta/demand-energy
    https://chsp.ucar.edu/brace-benefits-reduced-anthropogenic-climate-change

    Can I suggest, the most important input for justifying climate policies is the Impact Function (biophysical impacts) and Damage Function (convert to economic). It is also the important uncertain.

    I see no persuasive, valid evidence showing that SCC is other than zero. I’d really encourage debate on this most important of all topics.

  8. AGW benefits hydro in EU and British Columbia

    1. Dowling, 2013. The Impact of Climate Change on the European Energy System: https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/peseta/demand-energy
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513004485

    “Main results and findings

    Under the Reference scenario, overall EU energy demand is estimated to fall by 13% compared to the control period, though it would increase by 8% in Southern Europe due to increased demand for cooling. Results for the 2°C scenario are similar, with overall demand decreasing by 7%, with a 1% increase in Southern Europe.”

    2. Parkinson and Djilali, 2015. ‘Robust response to hydro-climatic change in electricity generation planning‘
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274387678_Robust_response_to_hydro-climatic_change_in_electricity_generation_planning

    “An electricity generation planning framework incorporating adaptation to hydro-climatic change is presented. The planning framework internalizes risks and opportunities associated with alternative hydro-climate scenarios to identify a long-term system configuration robust to uncertainty. The implications of a robust response to hydro-climatic change are demonstrated for the electricity system in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Adaptation strategy is crucial in this region, mainly due to the large contribution of hydropower resources to regional electricity supply. Analysis of results from basin-scale hydrologic models driven with downscaled global climate data suggest that shifts in regional streamflow characteristics by the year 2050 are likely to increase BC’s annual hydropower potential by more than 10 %. These effects combined with an estimated decrease in electricity demand by 2 % due to warmer temperatures, could provide an additional 11 TWh of annual energy. Uncertainties in these projected climate impacts indicate technology configurations offering significant long-term operational flexibility will be needed to ensure system reliability. Results from the regional long-term electricity generation model incorporating adaptive capacity show the significant shifts required in the non-hydro capacity mix to ensure system robustness cause an increase in cumulative operating costs of between 1 and 7 %. Analysis of technology configurations involving high-penetrations of wind generation highlights interactions between flexibility requirements occurring over multiple temporal scales.”

  9. Silently, Quickly, and Completely: The World’s Lakes in Peril [link]

    “The high level of spatial heterogeneity in lake warming rates found in this study runs counter to the common assumption of general regional coherence. Lakes for which warming rates were similar in association with particular geomorphic or climatic predictors (i.e., lakes within a “leaf”) showed weak geographic clustering (Figure 3b), contrary to previous inferences of regional-scale spatial coherence in lake warming trends [Palmer et al., 2014; Wagner et al., 2012]. In fact, similarly responding lakes were broadly distributed across the globe, indicating that lake characteristics can strongly mediate climatic effects. The heterogeneity in surface warming rates underscores the importance of considering interactions among climate and geomorphic factors that are driving lake responses and prevents simple statements about surface water trends; one cannot assume that any individual lake has warmed concurrently with air temperature, for example, or that all lakes in a region are warming similarly. Predicting future responses of lake ecosystems to climate change relies upon identifying and understanding the nature of such interactions.”

    The Laurentian Great Lakes or the Great Lakes of North America “form the largest group of freshwater lakes on Earth, containing 21% of the world’s surface fresh water by volume.” (wiki) So, it may be relevant to see how these 5 great lakes are doing recently given the tragedy befalling the global fresh water supply due to climate change.

    It seems than the authors, although living in Illinois seem to have misplaced their copy of the US Army Corps of Engineers (Detroit District) water level measurements over the last several years. Not only in the recent past have water levels been above chart datum, but predictions for this coming year: all a foot or more above chart datum as well. Or, maybe all that heat from global warming stored in these Great Lakes and measured in part by surface water temperature was supposed to delay ice formation such than the Great Lakes are to be ice free shortly. Now the last time all the Great Lakes were simultaneously entirely ice COVERED was in…2014. Imagine that. The Great Lakes are accumulating 1/3 C every year due to climate change and yet, somehow, someway became completely ice covered by some means or another.

    Truly, my observations and reasoning of the fate of an ice cube in my glass of Scotch need more than some physics classes I took so very long ago.

    Eureka! I’ve got it! The Great Lakes are made of alcohol!

    • As someone who swam and sailed Lake Michigan off Chicago for decades, summer warming would have been welcome. But alas, personal experience says didn’t happen.

      • ristvan

        I too swim/swam/sail/scuba dived the Great Lakes, mostly Lake Huron now. Below the one foot sun warmed water line, cold as all get out. For a heart pounding/stopping experience, try the Georgian Bay. Frightfully cold. 1/4 inch wet suit still not enough.

        One grandchild loves the cold water, been doing it from birth. Evolutionary biology I guess.

    • Geoff Sherrington

      RiHo,
      A simple hypothesis would be localised temperature changes and an obvious one would be local cloud cover variations.
      Has this simple though been rejected by evidence?
      Geoff

      • Geoff Sherington

        From my cottage front deck, I see the “Canadian Sunset” in the Western skies looking Northwest across Lake Huron 45 degrees Latitude. The skies, the sunsets are, well beautiful. Its been well over 60 years looking Westward, over the water: Summer, Winter, Springtime and Fall. Its hard for me to say there has been a substantive change in the clouds. From “Brownie Box”, Single Lens Reflex, to iPhone camera pictures, pretty much the same, except for the growth in trees and the growing older subjects in the pictures. I admit there are now jet “contrails” in the pictures where in previous ones, the piston airplanes from Regina to Toronto were but specks in the air, hardly visible at all. If the clouds have changed, I haven’t seen it, and, I doubt anyone else has either.

        Neighbors a couple of miles away on either side occasionally remark on the water levels, and water temperatures, the Winter ice in the bay, and the start of Spring and Fall, all in all, being about the same. Eagles have returned to the neighborhood, carp still spawn in the shallows. And the cribs from a century ago logging industry, lie submerged and remain a black bass fishing spot.

        When the grandkids go swimming out front and the dog goes in half-way and barks at them; when the water calms to a glass sheet under a high pressure, and the seagulls feast on the Mayflies swarming in the air, nothing seems to have changed over the last half-century or more.

        I believe the climate scientists are a legacy of politics and have missed the even-handedness of Mother Nature.

        You are welcome to join me for a Scotch and watch a Canadian sunset. A number of neighbors come and visit regularly. I would be happy to introduce you to those whose lives have been changed for the better by the seemingly unchanged climate in our neighborhood.

      • Geoff Sherrington

        RiHo08,
        Thank you for your kind ‘Canadian Sunset’ comments. Aussies, my wife and I have enjoyed many times in Canada with its lovely people and beautiful surroundings, not so much the cold.
        My comment about cloud was more scientific than emotional in content. Many times I have been struck by the less-than-expected impact of features like the strip of land between Nth & Sth America, the Gibraltar Straits etc, where sometimes weather/climate seems to see the barriers, sometimes not, in sea measurements. This is further to the topic that properties of lakes can be less uniform than one might expect. As a very strong moderator of watt per sq m between the sun ans the water, clouds are important but they are seriously understudies for often valid reasons.
        That understudy however is not largesse to ignore or minimise their values.
        Geoff.

  10. Hindu Kush water, actually good news combined with a lot of non climate effects: “A committee of experts, including those from NASA, found that at lower elevations, glacial retreat is unlikely to cause significant changes in water availability, but other factors, including groundwater depletion and increasing human water use may have a greater impact.”

    • Which us in fact old news that was already reported in 2009: R. Armstrong, D. Alford, and A. Racoviteanu, A preliminary assessment of the role of glaciers in the hydrologic regime of the Nepal Himalaya, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 11, EGU2009-10794, 2009

  11. Judith,

    May I suggest a new Week in Review topic for 2017:
    Week In Review – Impacts, Impact Functions, Damage Functions and Policy Implications.

    NAS, 2017 defines Climate Impacts and Climate Damages as:

    The committee defines climate impacts as the biophysical or social effects driven by climate change (e.g., changes in land productivity, mortality, morbidity, water supply, coastal flooding, or conflict) and climate damages as the monetized estimates of the social welfare effects of climate impacts (see Box 2-2 in Chapter 2). Impacts estimates are either an explicit input or implicit element of projected damages.

    (Chapter 5, Damages Module, line 181)

    Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide (2017)
    https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24651/valuing-climate-changes-updating-estimation-of-the-social-cost-of

    • I’m trying to pull together a post on this, hopefully next week

      • Judith,

        That’s great news. I hope it attracts a great deal of well informed comments from experts in the field. I hope CE can make this issue a major focus for 2017 with posts by invited expert authors, e.g.:

        Richard Tol,
        William Nordhaus (or co workers),
        Ross McKitrick,
        Roger Pielke Jr.,
        Steve McIntyre

        And especially by the researchers who have done the actual data collection and analyses of the biophysical impacts of long term average temperature change by country, region and sector.

        And, importantly, the paleo evidence of biomass productivity in times of much warmer climates than now (up to 5 C higher GMST in the past) such as questions in my comments here: https://judithcurry.com/2016/11/25/week-in-review-science-and-policy-edition-3/#comment-826494

      • When it comes to the next 300 years there are no experts.

    • This all assumes that there are damages, which has yet to be determined and appears unlikely. Damages dancing on the head of a pin.

      • David Wojick,

        This all assumes that there are damages

        NO it does not. You completely misunderstand this. You made this point repeatedly on your thread on CSS and I explained each time you raised it. Damages can be positive or negative or zero (read the literature – it stated repeatedly). What we need is a valid dam age function so we can produce valid estimate of the damages of GHG emissions (positive, negative or zero) and the uncertainties, so we can actually make justifiable projections of the net-costs/benefits of GHG emissions globally. Then we can do justifiable policy analyses and justify policies. Without this, we remain in the uninformed, ideologically driven mess we are in now and have been for the past 30 years on AGW, “climate change’ or whatever it is called this week.

  12. “A study of 235 lakes worldwide published last year showed an average warming of 0.34 degrees Celsius per decade, almost three times warmer than the 0.12 degrees Celsius per decade rate of the oceans and faster than the 0.25 degrees Celsius rate of the atmosphere. The disproportionate surge of warming in lake systems has surprised scientists. Catherine O’Reilly, a freshwater ecologist at Illinois State University and lead author of the study, told Science she “would have expected that, on average, lakes would be warming more slowly than air.””

    “In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade−1) between 1985 and 2009.”

    The second paragraph is from the abstract. So it’s surface temperatures it seems. 10 meters of water warms faster than 4000 meters of water. If we say what matters in the oceans is the top 10 meters we’d be wrong. The 3990 meters underneath that temper them by 2/3s. 0.12 / 0.34. Lakes are agile. Oceans have a lot of mass.

    If our GMST comes from the oceans, this widening gap between the two should stabilize with the oceans thermal reserves holding SSTs back.

    Here’s why the lake SSTs are warmer than the GMST rise. Lakes have the same advantage of absorbing SW as oceans do without the mass oceans have. Lakes seem to store energy better than the atmosphere.

    I don’t think warmer lakes are going to a problem on the prairie. More moisture in the air is a good thing for growing corn. Even with later ice formation and earlier ice out, that should be canceled out by greater precipitation. Ice covered lakes are the system slowing. These changes show that the hydrological cycle speeds up. It is more active, there is more life. Ice in means what for the oxygen in the lake? The fish prefer more oxygen which can be a problem during the Winter.

    It is my opinion that lakes in Minnesota have an annual zeroing effect.
    “As winter sets in, lakes lose energy to the atmosphere, and water near the surface cools, becomes more dense, and sinks. Warmer, less dense water under the surface will rise to replace this surface water. When the entire lake reaches 40 F, the surface water cools further, dropping below 40 F. Because this water is now less dense than the surrounding water, it will stay on the top and continue to cool.
    Once the surface water falls to 32 F, it freezes. “
    Even if delayed, the lake transitions with roughly the same amount of energy in it each year. The insulation forms and the lake battles the Winter with thermal mass and insulation and almost never Winter kills the fish. Earlier ice outs restore lake oxygen and I’d say that’s good for the fish and the birds that prey on the fish. With a mild Winter, less ice insulation forms. Allowing more lake warmth to escape and I’d argue it goes ice out with roughly the same amount of energy in it each year.

    With lakes being open longer in Minnesota, we have more efficient capture of SW that should warm the prairie. Not in the Fall, but in Spring yes. It should also cause more water vapor but the total surface areas of the lakes isn’t huge so measuring this would be difficult. I am excluding Lake Superior though.

    The problems that lakes have are the same as they were 20 years. Things other than climate change. Run off. Encroaching development, destruction of marshes.

  13. Andrew Montford’s latest GWPF drought study PDF is worth a read. Here are his conclusions and link.

    http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2016/04/parched-earth-policy.pdf

    8 Conclusions
    “The tendency of climate scientists to make apocalyptic claims based on the output of
    computer simulations is thoroughly to be regretted, as indeed are the tendencies of
    environmentalists to use these wild statements to promote their own fundraising efforts
    and of politicans to act upon them. It is not a new observation that GCMs– which
    12
    are only vast untested hypotheses – are no basis for public policy. However, in the area
    of droughts and heatwaves we have some clear and stark evidence of just how damaging
    politicians’ failure to recognise this fact has been. Nearly ten years after Tim
    Flannery told Australians that the great cities of Australia were about to run permanently
    dry, the desalination plants that were built in response stand as monuments
    to the shamelessness of the environmental movement and the cringing politicians
    who bowed to their demands. And ten years after Andrew Simms informed us that
    drought was about to push people ‘over the edge’, there is still little sign that such an
    apocalypse will come to pass soon, or even in the distant future. The absence of any
    meaningful global trends in either drought or heatwaves in the recent past seems to
    indict the very integrity of those who make such claims.
    Drought makes for powerful images, with dusty landscapes and parched earth a
    staple of the fundraising efforts of both environmentalists, the public relations efforts
    of academics and the posturing of politicians. But as the rains wash the drought away
    and cool days replace hot ones, and as the desalination plants are quietly mothballed,
    life goes on much as it always has, with farmers and the general public quietly adapting
    to whatever the weather throws at them. The antics of greens and politicians have
    cost them dear though, and will cost them dear again, until the invalidated computer
    simulation ceases to be a tool of public policy”.
    13

  14. Quite a list of problems here. I predict that all the current wind turbines along with all new ones added in the next 20 years will not improve any of these problems after 20 years by more than 10%.

    It goes around here, Look a squirrel. So we are trying to fix these problems. I like lakes. Herons, fishing Ospreys, Snapper Turtles you name it. But we keep saying, Look global warming. That doesn’t fix anything. We might as well write them all off with that approach.

    • Do not take these dangers both seriously and literally. Who do you think will profit from the Paris Agreement – Polar Bears? Emperor Penguins? George Soros? Tom Steyer?

  15. Pingback: NOAA Jumps The Shark In Tampa Bay | Watts Up With That?

  16. Are we only illuminating those things we want to see? Mass a large, poor society on a large tract of desert abutting a large body of water and without sufficient power we surely will find a large, poor population living in an environment that is generally favorable but ultimately is only sustainable at the whim of the vagaries of nature–

  17. “UK: Major flooding in UK now likely every year, warns lead climate adviser”

    I went to a local talk that Lord Krebs held about UK flooding. He misrepresented the science by attributing increases in UK summer flooding to human emissions. The January and February 2014 floods he also blamed on ‘global warming’ despite the report from a senior MetO scientist saying that there was no such indication. There is a very good analogue of that event in winter 1876-77, where the northeast U.S. was colder than normal, and the UK was unusually windy and very wet and mild. Signs of a NE Pacific warm blob. And that was followed by the 1877-78 super El Nino.

  18. Bill Nye the non-science guy was telling us just recently that AGW had resulted in a high pressure now being a mostly-permanent presence over CA, implying we were going into permanent drought.

    This past week he tweets photos of CA cars under water and demanding agreement with Paris accord………must be nice to always be right no matter how wrong you are.

  19. In regards to

    TAMPA: New study shows big parts of Tampa will be underwater by 2040 (including its main hospital)

    see my post here.

    All the best to all,

    w.

    • “The final parameter, projections of how much sea level will change globally over the next 100 years, is derived from experts engaged in climate science.”

      If they really believed these climate science experts, why don’t they stop writing about it and start building a wall around Tampa NOW, or, is the Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Board simply engaged in fake news, fake science and fake governance?

    • Nicely done. Much more thorough evisceration than my single paragraph above. Highest regards.

  20. Instead of the EPA being a lawless agency…

    As-Samra channels the ‘grey’ (sewage) water from Amman towards Zarqa. The natural gradient gravity flow turns a turbine that generates electricity to power the Jordanian capital. The waste water is then treated and sent on for irrigation purposes in the agricultural fields around Zarqa.

    It could have been doing something positive like… turning foo into fuel!

  21. From the article:

    With more rain and snow on the way, the supposed “unending drought” that the New York Times reported on last year has, in a matter of weeks, ended — at least in Northern California.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/01/satellite-reveals-end-of-n-california-drought/

  22. The B’Tselem report on Palestinian water problems needs to be read with full understanding of their context as a foreign run and foreign funded “activist” group that has endorsed and supported multiple blatantly antiIsrael and proPalestinian positions and the number of times they have been caught just outright lying about facts on the ground. And they hire a few far left Israeli Jews to “prove” how fair they are with their European funding. They are certainly not a group of experts carefully studying the issue in an unbiased fashion. They are essentially a politically motivated group who act as part of the propaganda arm of the PA and whose short term goal is delegitimizing the Jewish state and long term eventually destroying it. (This is not Just my opinion but has documented by the Jerusalem Post as recently as October 2016) The totally one sided nature of this particular article clearly shows this bias. Everything is Israel’s fault. Jews have abundant clean water and we don’t, therefore Jews must have stolen water from us. Nasty Jews Poor us. The real fact is that the government of the Palestinians is hopelessly corrupt, refuses to properly fund and maintain the infrastructure for water supply, refuses to pay the Israelis if the Israelis try to do it (never mind shooting at them), and there are endless problems with illegal drilling, illegal sewage dumping and illegal attachment of additional water lines onto existing infrastructure, enormous waste of what they have and the occasional use of water supply facilities as good places to hide rocket launchers for shooting rockets at Jews or as cover for other terrorist activities aimed at killing Jews. There have even been examples of things like Hamas members using European workers hired with European aide money to deal with sewage problems suddenly finding themselves becoming objects of Hamas target practice because sewage problems are such great propaganda tools. It’s the typical set of problems that occur in corrupt, disorganized, violent and backward societies that lacks rule of law. But, hey, blaming Jews is always easier and it pays too, because blaming Jews is sure to draw sympathy and lots of funding, especially from Europeans who love to fund antiJewish propaganda organizations. And if you don’t believe that Europeans love funding antiJewish propaganda groups, just try reading Tuvia Tennenboms excellent book about this called “Catch the Jew” where he expertly, and hilariously, documents this.

    • We in the West need to truly understand the Middle East. We did it better in the past when we propped up dictators to keep the ME under control. The situation is much worse now that the West have “democratized” the ME. They don’t do democracy over there.

      • Yes, this was the Bush Doctrine, that came from his idealist neocon cabal, and we are still paying for this miscalculation.

      • Have been there many times on business, last to Saudi and Kuwait in 2008. Its pretty simple. First, the deep hatred between Shiia and Sunni versions of Islam goes back to the sequelae of the death of Mohammed about 13 centuries age. Second, tribal/ethnic allegiances. Think Kurds in Iraq, Sunni Anbar awakening in Iraq, Houti in Yemen. Next, recognize many of these overpopulated dry places and people are dirt poor in the midst of vast oil wealth; that won’t change because there is no democracy. In other words, a cesspool of problems the US is in no way responsible for. Destroy ISIS and then let them all fend for themselves. Let Saudi Arabia pay for keeping Straits of Homuz open against Iran. We can do the job for them as contractors, paid in free oil?

      • It went from containment to a full-out ground invasion with the aim of changing the government. These are different policies, and the Bush Doctrine identifies that difference.

      • jimd

        as the article says;

        ‘The Clinton years should not be shrugged off as distant history. Bill Clinton played the role of relay runner, handing off the hawkish baton that Bush’s father had first passed to Clinton. While in office, Clinton cemented the goal of Iraqi regime change and eagerly used the instruments of war he inherited — sanctions and the no-fly zones — to achieve this aim.

        Simply put, Bush’s even bloodier invasion and occupation was an escalation of Clinton’s “quiet war.”

        This is surely well documented history? Containment? It was more than that. Clintons hands are not clean. If he was a republican I am sure you would be vilifying him.

        tonyb

      • As I’ve said before here, Iraq and Afghanistan were mistakes. We should have then and should now take a more targeted approach. Eliminate those who foment war against the West until it is well understood you and yours won’t survive.

      • They don’t do democracy over there.

        I agree but the question for me is can they. In the evolution of civilizations, self governance is the end game. You have demonstrated adulthood by reaching that state.

        I used to think it was just a matter of time and they had to go through growing pains to get there. With the emergence of evolutionary psychology, and insights gained from that work, I’m
        not so sure. It might be part of their genes and DNA. When peoples have socialized and gained a sense of self over millennia, it might be asking too much to accomplish what other nations and cultures have.

        In 1804, Jefferson’s top priority was tensions in the Middle East. In that sense, nothing much has changed.

      • tonyb, what Clinton was doing was backed by the international community and I had no problem with it because Saddam had a history of attacking his own minorities and neighbors, and this was for their protection. What Bush did had hardly any international support, and for good reason, because his motives were wrong. There is a very clear distinction.

      • ck – they have a very oppressive religion to overcome. It’s not only a religion but also a form of government and societal template. It’s a three-pronged frog gig.

      • Jim

        Three pronged frog gig?

        Have you been reading Shakespeare again?

        Tonyb

      • We need to stop trying to understand the middle east. We should prop up and support Israel as the one democracy in the region and we stop buying their oil. Canada has cheap abundant oil from a democratically elected government with enforced environmental safeguards, free press, protection of human rights and everything Americans purports to stand for and Canadians (mostly) do not go around funding an ideology bent on destruction of the US. So why in h*ll are you people still buying oil from Sharia cesspools like Saudi Arabia while you block our pipelines?????

      • Jim D “Yes, this was the Bush Doctrine, that came from his idealist neocon cabal, and we are still paying for this miscalculation.” Hopelessly and absolutely compounded by President Obama who pulled out the troops so abruptly without leaving anything behind to try to stabilize and hold things after all the blood and gold Bush dumped in there.

      • Obama was elected on that promise. Americans were understandably tired of losing nearly a thousand troops per year for a country that did not want them there, so blame the Americans.

  23. Peak water?

  24. The prophecies of CRU’s Dr. David Viner predicted that in a few short years a winter snowfall will be, “a very rare and exciting event,” and, “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.” Has anyone told him yet about snow blanketing south Mediterranean beaches and canals of Venice freezing over?

  25. Most of the locals of Sacramento don’t realize that it is the US city most prone to flood damage after New Orleans, or nearly so. Nothing to do with climate change. The local Indians a century ago said it flooded here every century or two,15 feet deep, and the evidence agrees. And this is no casual flood, but rather a monster of as much as 5000+ square miles. The last one in that range was 1862, the year that California went bankrupt because of the fall in taxes, and many states were heavily affected. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862 and https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-rivers-california-megaflood-lessons-from-forgotten-catastrophe/ , plus many more

  26. Floods for Britain?
    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017/01/13/england-wales-precipitation-annual-stats-2016/

    Any flooding is due to building in the wrong place, the obstruction of rivers, failing to maintain drainage channels & the like.

    • Adam

      I was on the Environment agency Flood defence committee for nine years.

      They had no statutory powers to override planning decisions by local councils so building continues apace on flood plains (placing existing and future residents at risk) and in other unsuitable places. Due to EU habitat directives it is extremely problematic to keep rivers cleared and drainage ditches free flowing. Consequently silt builds up, with inevitable consequences.

      tonyb

    • 250 years of precipitation data and if there is a trend I don’t see it.

  27. I’m arguing with someone who looks at two flats data sections removing to two monster super El Ninos data and say’s there is no CO2 signal in the satellite data:

    The system is not linear. I suppose you’re saying sensitivity is zero. I’ll say it’s variable. Here’s Ghil:

    Look for the ‘Y’. As that goes to 90 degrees sensitivity approaches infinity, fails to do so and there’s your step. What’s probably going on is the massive oceans are burying the CO2 signal until they throw it at us during an El Nino.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/01/17/trump-and-international-energy-poverty-five-steps/comment-page-1/#comment-2399744

    I am not asking for any help, it doesn’t matter. What I wrote above maybe it helps explain steps. We’d expect the oceans to flatten the GMST. I keep saying they are massive and cool to great depth.

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