by Judith Curry
A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Obama begins climate change tour [link]
Lousiana Governor Bobby Jindal to President Obama: Don’t talk about climate change [link]
Obama Heads 2 Alaska as Climate Groups Cry ‘Hypocrisy’ [link] …
Utterly predictable: Carbon Offsets May Have Dramatically Increased Emissions [link]
Can China cut coal? [link]
The world built more new coal plants in the past decade than in any previous decade. [link]
Next Big Thing In #Bangladesh: #Solar Irrigation Pumps [link]
Consumer Reports gives the new Tesla a 103. Out of 100! The best rating ever for a car. [link] …
@USNavy is investing in what will be the largest solar farm in the world [link]
“green” energy tax credits are wildly regressive: 90% of EV credits to top income quintile. [link]
Carbon markets & credits led to ~8x increase in industrial greenhouse gases in Russia. System gamed [link]
Balkan nations choose electricity (coal) over EU political correctness. [link]
CLEAN POWER PLAN: Former EPA general counsel Martella says final rule legally vulnerable [link] …
California limits rebates for hybrids & #EVs to households earning less than $500,000 [link]
San Diego Gas & Electric Sets Renewable Energy Record During Heat Wave [link]
Hawaii Flips Switch on World’s Largest Ocean Harvesting Clean Energy Plant [link]
Fusion energy startup Tri Alpha Energy leaves stealth mode, claims significant reactor breakthrough: [link] …
Former Duke CE on energy access: Centralization is out, Distributed Gen is in
“System of electric power we have in America…not sustainable for future of planet”: [link]
How our national labs could help accelerate an energy breakthrough:
Nuclear Innovation: Necessity of Test Beds [link]
New Solar Window Can Make Any Glass Pane a Solar Panel [link]
Making a difference in Bangladesh: “The solar lamp has changed our lives.” [link]
Carbon capture, clean coal plant goes bankrupt, only $4.4b over budget [link]
More crop insurance subsidies, more problems? [link]
Putting California’s #drought in perspective of real global hotspots: Palestine [link] …
Off-grid #solar is growing fast in #Bangladesh: 3.5 million home systems, 70,000 jobs: [link]
New AEEI report: California utility business models must evolve to bring state’s electricity system into the future [link]
World energy needs and nuclear power [link]
Waterways choked, Karachi on brink of floods with each rain [link]
Combining science w/ traditional knowledge: ancient rice as a source of #climate #resilience [link] …
Do we really need anti-Israel lies on this site?
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Palestinian-lies-like-water-319582
I agree! Palestine’s “drought”????? You’re quoting ISM????? Oh please! Spare us the Jew hating, “Jews are responsible for all the evil in the world” propaganda. ISM has a very long and very sorry history of supporting terrorism, helping ignorant young idealists to become useful idiots and even losing their lives doing it, (think Rachel Cory and Kayla Meuller), being intimately involved in Paliwood productions (read total fabrications and outright lies), and sheltering suicide bombers (okay they deny that one, the suicide boomers were only there for “tea”). As for the “Palestinian’s” water problems, issues like using German aide workers as target practice by Hamas while said workers try to clean up a sewage holding areas is much more what causes their problems than “settlers” ( disgusting term for people coming back into what had been a Jewish community for 2000+ years until a murderous pogram by Arabs in 1929 resulted in the British forcibly removing all Jews from the city). Corruption, diverting aid for water security to terrorism are much bigger problems than anything “settlers” do. ISM makes Michael Mann look the best, most reliable, most insightfully brilliant and truthful scientist who ever set foot on the earth and extremely well deserving of his Nobel Prize. I would be hard pressured to name a less reliable source than ISM. One thing they can be counted on is to always twist anything in the news into a problem for Arabs that i caused by Jews for their hate filled propaganda.
There’s a tendency to confuse Jewish with Israeli. But that isn’t the case. Not all Jews are Israeli, nor are all Israelis Jewish. Some are Muslim, others are Christian, and I bet a fraction is atheist.
If that is some kind of attempt to excuse the double standard, the vicious attacks, the constant lies, the impossible demands, and the continuous stream of drivel by groups like ISM and BDS against the state of Israel that go on in the UN, in the press, in the intelligentsia of the leftist academe and the sympathetic leftists of democrat world, you’re wasting your time.
This ISM story is a complete and total lie and fabrication. It’s propaganda. It’s fakery. It’s garbage.
There’s a few other canards like that one too, like “Arabs can’t be antiSemitic because their Semites too.” or “It’s not Jews we hate it’s Zionists.” “Criticizing Israeli policy is not antiSemitic.” (It isn’t but only when criticism is fair and truthful and the story about Israel stealing all the water is neither truthful nor fair.) Forget trying that with me. The reason so many people love to hate Israel is precisely because it’s a Jewish state. If you think ISM is not about getting rid of all the Jews in the world (except for a few useful idiots who get it last) all you have to do is look at their long term plans for the place. All Jews out of Israel replaced by “Palestinians”.
And Boycott Divest and Sanction (BDS)? They aren’t about hating Jews, just justice for “Palestinians” right? Then why did BDS force a music festival in Spain to make the only Jew in the entire line up, an American Jew named Matiyahu, sign a sworn pledge that he supported Palestine as a condition that he be allowed to sing and when he wouldn’t sign, they booted him, the only Jew, out of the festival. Don’t kid yourself. ISM and proPalestinian lobby are all about hating Jews and tllling any lie they can to further their agenda to destroy Jews in the world. ISM supports the work of Hamas. Go read the Hamas charter.
This isn’t about Israel as a pluralistic, gay tolerant, minority protecting, democracy with freedom of the press, respect for human rights, and protection of all minorities. It’s about killing all the Jews first. And you know who gets it next.
ISM = antiSemitic propaganda and lies.
http://archive.adl.org/main_anti_israel/international_solidarity_movement.html#.VeJNpLTUPN8
Anti-Israeli distortions are, sadly, far worse than those promoting alleged CAGW. A poster to Haaretz complained that an article detailing this would never appear in the Western MSM. I was happy to advise that The Australian ran it as its top featured article, almost a full broadsheet page. But I doubt if any other media here would have picked it up.
The article in the Ecologist combines those two great modern forms of self-loathing: climate alarmism and Israel-bashing.
Though maybe it’s only the words that are modern.
It’s news isn’t it?
http://dailycaller.com/2015/08/29/flashback-abc-news-envisioned-apocalyptic-world-triggered-by-climate-change-video/
Circulation slowing… getting old?
Pingback: Week in review – energy and policy edition | Enjeux énergies et environnement
‘…”Green” energy tax credits are wildly regressive: 90% of EV credits to top quintile…’
From the abstract:
“. The most extreme is the program aimed at electric vehicles, where we find that the top income quintile has received about 90% of all credits.”
“Surprise, surprise, surprise …” – Gomer Pyle
In a few regions one might argue electric cars are at least “green”. But in some parts of the country the well-to-do were given fat subsidies to drive coal-powered vehicles. Sadly, many of those owners were too ignorant to appreciate the irony.
WSJ on the Consumer Reports Tesla Review …
Harder to remedy, even with an overnight overhaul of its website, will be the impression that CR abused its own rating process to inflate the score for the $127,000 Tesla Model S P85D. The magazine claims the pricey Model S is so good, it “broke” CR’s rating system. But it looks more like CR broke its own rating system. Hard to reconcile is a perfect score in a review where the words “glaring omission at this price” or some variation are commonplace in reference to everything from sun visors to cup holders to malfunctioning door handles. Plus the car gets only an “average” rating on reliability, which already seems generous in light of complaints from Tesla owners on enthusiast message boards.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/consumer-reports-spends-its-juice-badly-1440803078
Why I canceled my CR subscription many moons ago. I wanted info, not opinion.
It is interesting that the car review section on Consumer Reports is apparently separate from the magazine – as even magazine subscription holders cannot access the online site without an additional fee.
I also cancelled my CR subscription over ten years ago. They began to let politics impact their ratings. It is fine to talk about a cars mpg, but I can read. I want to know about the ride, handling, and cabin noise.
Similarly with Australia’s Choice, which started out as a straight-down-the-line consumer testing magazine then became social crusaders, later teaming up with the green left. Cancelled long ago.
Utterly predictable: Carbon Offsets May Have Dramatically Increased Emissions [link]
From the article:
“But perhaps worst of all are the perverse incentives the SEI report alleges these credit swaps have created for actually increasing emissions. According to a study released in the journal Nature Climate Change, plants in Russia “increased waste gas generation to unprecedented levels once they could generate credits from producing more waste gas,” resulting in an increase in emissions as large as 600 million tons of carbon dioxide—roughly half the amount the EU’s ETS intends to reduce from 2013 to 2030.”
I’m shocked, SHOCKED to discover…
JW, you obviously have not lived in Chicago, which in addition to Al Capone and the Valentine’s Day massacre spawned our former community organizer, now commander in chief. Solyndra was a ‘Chicago’ style play…
We note that by SHOCKED, you really meant ‘yup’. Or some such. Regards.
I have never been to Chicago, but I did visit Casabanca via the silver screen.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SjbPi00k_ME
Casablanca in 1969 looked a bit boring. I took off early when I woke to find that the guy who’d given me a ride from Algeciras in Spain via the ferry to Ceuta was sound asleep with the door open and a revolver to hand (or to be picked up) by his bed. A recipe for disaster. I took the Marrakech Express while he slept on.
Legality of EPA CPP, interview with former EPA GC Martella. He appropriately hedges, but as much as admits CPP is illegal. No wonder he is the former EPA general counsel. Wonderfully clear what is going on.
Tri Alpha Fusion. I researched fourth gen nuclear stuff extensively for two years (essay Going Nuclear). Both fission and fusion, plus a little bit of LENR (weak force rather than strong force, Widom-Larsen theory, solves the Coulomb barrier problem, and also explains many anomalous but ‘real’ experimental results). Would be very skeptical of TAF claims unless proven by some experimental evidence. There is none available (that I could find today) behind their stock PR.
More ‘sucker’ junk science, as bad as CAGW?
That isn’t the problem.
They have a billion K temperature target and they can do 10 million K for 5 milliseconds. It might work – but not any time soon.
Much like ITER it all comes back to materials science issues.
Once they achieve 1 billion degrees they are going to have to contain and convert/channel the energy. ITER has some scavenging hardware metallurgical issues and large chunks of an 8000 ton stainless steel reactor vessel that gets tossed every 6 months.
How our national labs could help accelerate an energy breakthrough:
Nuclear Innovation: Necessity of Test Beds [link]
It is beyond embarrassing that we are blowing $ 20 billion a year on climate change. One year’s wasted money on climate change is far more than is need to turn out a high efficiency LFTR nuclear design and prove/disprove all the niche fusion concepts out there.
So for 1 years climate change funding we can make climate change funding unnecessary.
The material sciences issues with ITER have little do with the plasma temperature and much to do with the 14 MeV neutrons created by the D-T reactions. One estimate, albeit from nearly 40 years ago, is that each atom in the first wall would be knocked out of its position in the lattice an average of 10 times before the wall was replaced. One of the things that has kept the fast breeder reactor from being more common is the materials damage from the fast neutrons, but fission neutrons are much less energetic than D-T neutrons.
The Tri Alpha Fusion would use a 1H/11B reaction to produce three alpha particles which can be captured by an appropriately shaped magnetic field and potentially allow for a more or less direct conversion of the daughter particle energy into electric energy. The relative absence of neutrons would mean the materials issue is likely to be orders of magnitude less serious with the proton boron reaction than with the D-T reaction.
Whether TAF can get the needed confinement is an open question.
At the energies involved with fusion reactions, it makes a lot more sense to express “temperature” in eV than Kelvin. All the cross section data I’ve seen is referenced to particle energy in eV not Kelvin.
My understanding is that the magnetic forces flex the entire reactor and that neutron embrittlement results in a limited lifetime for the inner wall.
The question is how much has to be replaced how often. But parts of the scavenging system have a high neutron flux high temperature requirement that is a little difficult to meet.
Neutron embrittlement is the primary problem, what high energy neutrons do to any crystalline solid is pretty nasty. In the Deuterium Tritium reaction about 80% of the energy is in the neutron and 20% is in the helium nucleus (AKA alpha particle). The only way of stopping or “guiding” the neutron is by interaction with nuclei of surrounding matter, meaning that the nuclei end up being ejected from the molecule or lattice with a great deal of energy.
The advantage of the Tri Alpha approach and other aneutronic fusion reactions (e.g. D-3He) is that the energy is released in charged particles, which can be stopped or guided by electric or magnetic fields and thus kept away from the wall of the fusion chamber. Neutron embrittlement should be a much smaller problem than with D-T fusion.
Having said that, I’m not making any bets on Tri Alpha achieving the breakeven point.
@erikemagnuson
“Having said that, I’m not making any bets on Tri Alpha achieving the breakeven point.”
In effect neither TAE nor ITER need to reach break-even… they simply need to be able to generate a suitably large neutron flux which can convert natural uranium from fertile into fissile, and at the same time transmutating long-lived waste into shorter-lived ones… it’s the “hybrid fusion-fission reacgor” concept. Chinese and russians are working on it… better do something in the USA soon…
http://www.rt.com/news/196088-russia-hybrid-nuclear-reactor/
“Sigh”.
Reading RT requires knowledge and an ability to read between the lines.
There is some very useful information in RT. It is buried in metric tonnes of animal waste product fertilizer.
The fusion reactors might not be cost effective if they work correctly. Uranium is a tiny percentage of the cost of a nuclear plant. Fuel cost is about 10% of the operational cost. That is basically a don’t care. Why double (or more) the cost of a nuclear facility to achieve almost nothing?
LFTR is a far superior solution. It is a soup kettle that empties into a larger soup kettle if it overheats. End of story, passive safe, can reuse previously used (2nd hand or “spent”) fuel.
Since a soup kettle is easier to design than a king kong sized scuba tank with a highly complex tubular inner structure, LFTR should be much cheaper than BWR/PWR reactors. Passive safe means you don’t need active safety. Liquid salt means there is no water to explode or boil away. Reactor accidents and leaks are cleaned up with a shovel.
To be clear – there is a massive constant maintenance expense in running a Tokamak. Significant portions of the reactor get embrittled and become highly radioactive and must be replaced regularly.
@PA
“LFTR is a far superior solution. It is a soup kettle that empties into a larger soup kettle if it overheats. End of story, passive safe, can reuse previously used (2nd hand or “spent”) fuel.”
A nuclear fuel in LIQUID form is the last thing that one would want to have… the inevitable leaks and gravity will do the rest.
robertok06 | September 2, 2015 at 5:07 pm |
@PA
“LFTR is a far superior solution. It is a soup kettle that empties into a larger soup kettle if it overheats. End of story, passive safe, can reuse previously used (2nd hand or “spent”) fuel.”
A nuclear fuel in LIQUID form is the last thing that one would want to have… the inevitable leaks and gravity will do the rest.
One of the dumbest technological ideas was to keep radioactive substances at scuba tank pressures. That is idiotic.
Any other place where you have dangerous substances you don’t want escaping you operate at negative pressure. If the head of a bio-containment unit suggested operating at scuba tank pressures he would be out the door as the words were leaving his mouth.
An LFTR reactor operates at atmospheric pressure – the way a reactor should be. There is a cover on top to keep the heat in and the dirt and dust out. Technically it might be able to operate at negative pressure.
Nuclear fuel in liquid form is exactly what you want. The biggest problem with a LFTR reactor is finding the leaks. The leaks on a LFTR reactor tend to be self sealing. To find a leak you look for piles of hardened salt. The solution has to be above soldering temperatures to stay liquid.
The article on solar cells in Bangladesh was interesting.
Sadly, every time Obama flies Air Force One to go on vacation, it takes 199,000 liters of jet fuel (747-200B) to fill it up, which is more kerosene than what the Bangladesh program saves over six months.
oh dear
if you are unfortunate as I, and must frequent the Washington DC metro area, you would notice that the great big black Chevy Suburban is the preferred carriage of the political elite
living with less is for little people
The big black Chevy suburban is easy to convert to an armored vehicle. It takes the extra weight much better than a normal car.
“Hawaii Flips Switch on World’s Largest Ocean Harvesting Clean Energy Plant” sounds promising. Does anyone have numbers as to how economical and competitive this approach might be?
It has poor economics. I have looked into it in detail. It has poor efficiency because the temperature difference is pretty small.
In respect to the renewable power record set by SDG&E. The article stated that the peak generation occurred at 12:51PM PDT but neglected to note that peak load in California is typically around 7PM PDT. By 7PM, solar generation is practically nil.
The article went on to state that the peak renewable generation in the state was a bit over 6,000MW and went on to incorrectly state that was about fives times the capacity of San Onofre. Units 2 and 3 at San Onofre were rated at 1100MWe each, not 1200mWe total. In addition the article glossed over the difference in capacity factor between nuclear and renewables.
Solar irrigation pumps in Bangladesh.
These now compete with diesel pumps, but are only made affordable by subsidy. However, article says diesel is also subsidised.
So, rather than remove or reduce the diesel subsidy, thereby reducing the government, they choose to add to it by creating a new bureaucracy for solar.
Well, at least the Bangladesh state is looking after the interests of the Bangladesh state then. Career bureaurocrats there can sleep well.
“Career bureaurocrats there can sleep well.” Not only in Bangla Desh, unfortunately, those public servants who genuinely seek policies which best serve the community are easily outmanoeuvered by those who follow an insider-outsider, you-scratch my back …, self-and-mates-serving path. The former tend not to be self-serving, the others have more skin in the game, know that the goodies are a threat, and scheme, manipulate and toady to ministers to ensure that they hold sway. And most ministers rarely resist any proposal which will enhance their own empire.
Politics,
alack,
more
machiavellian
than
socratic.
Semantic pollution from EPA: “CO2 emissions” became “carbon pollution.”
http://www.cato.org/blog/you-ought-have-look-clean-power-plan-comes-under-fire
The graph graphically portrays EPA’s semantic switch from “emissions” to “pollution.” Pure hype. The dip at the end is just because there is only 7+ months of data. I would stop at 2014 then update annually.
“Carbon pollution’ is a despicable lie.
Speaking of despicable, I love Obama’s “Climate Change Tour.” With his WW3-genic Iran deal all but wrapped up, it’s time to move on to the next step of his master plan to wreck the world before his term is up.
(aka pokerguy)
Interesting legal analysis by Marlo Lewis:
http://www.globalwarming.org/2015/08/19/clean-energy-incentive-program-new-unlawful-element-in-epas-power-plant-rule/.
Attacking fracking.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/26082015/environmental-groups-start-legal-process-sue-epa-over-fracking-waste-wastewater?utm_source=Inside+Climate+News&utm_campaign=20334cf20c-Weekly_Newsletter_8_30_20158_27_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_29c928ffb5-20334cf20c-327531733
Things are tough all over: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/warren-buffett-green-energy-empire-anger-liberal-213125
Maybe Buffett should consider becoming independent and supporting Trump.
Jim2,
Co-presidents? Whaddya think our balance sheet might look like?
jim2
There was speculation in the British Press that Trump and Palin were cosying up to each other and might become running mates in bid for the Presidency. Please tell me it isn’t true…
tonyb
Largest Natural Gas field ever discovered.
Umm … largest ever in Egypt. Possible top twenty candidate worldwide, so it is admittedly a big one.
“green” energy tax credits are wildly regressive: 90% of EV credits to top income quintile. [link]
An homage to the market mechanism? That it’s from Berkeley certainly adds to the socio-economic satire of the topic.
San Diego Gas & Electric Sets Renewable Energy Record During Heat Wave
California state wide (excluding Sacramento and Los Angeles):
http://content.caiso.com/green/renewrpt/DailyRenewablesWatch.pdf
(updated daily — as I post, that is for 8/29)
more from the SDGE link: The California Independent System Operator reported a statewide record for renewable generation of 6,341 megawatts — more than five times the capacity of the decommissioned San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station — about an hour later at 1:42 p.m. on the same day last week.
That is an interesting comparison. Before the recent pipe problems, the San Onofre plant would have been generating at night as well, and would not have been considered as “intermittent” as the renewables.
Also note the reference to 61,000 roof-mounted systems, whose output was not included in the total.
number of households in California: 12.5 million
61000 = 0.49%
Nice to know solar credits have gone to the 0.49%
ticketstopper: number of households in California: 12.5 million
61000 = 0.49%
I referenced the whole state with the CAISO link.
the 61000 roof-mounted systems is in the SDG&E service area. Still a small percentage, but at one time hardly any transatlantic passengers flew; and then for a while hardly any of those who flew did so in turbine-powered aircraft. Closer to Earth, at one time hardly any Americans had automobiles. Roof-mounted solar isn’t the be-all and end-all, but it’s growing; now that California has raised the price of electricity from the grid, roof-mounted solar is economical for many people without the subsidy. I did not and do not support CA’s renewable portfolio standard, but that’s the state of the solar power now.
That the subsidies benefit the upper incomes has been mentioned many times, most recently by the Berkeley study that Prof Curry linked yesterday and Willis Eschenbach linked today.
“The California Independent System Operator reported a statewide record for renewable generation of 6,341 megawatts — more than five times the capacity of the decommissioned San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station” implies that the capacity of SONGS was about 1200MW, whereas each of the units was good for about 1100MW. Capacity factor for the renewable generation may be 25%, nuclear is typically 90%, which would put average generation of renewables at 1600MW versus 2000MW for SONGS if it was still running.
The steam generator replacement at SONGS turned out to be a fiasco, about 2.4 billion for generators that lasted a couple of years. Ironically, that’s about what was spent on the Ivanpah solar plant, which may not even match the energy production of SONGS after the steam generator replacement.
Willis found a study that finds “green energy” subsidies go mostly to the rich. $75,000 or more-type households.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/08/29/the-hood-robin-syndrome/
This post is aimed at Tony B and any other non-US citizen that does not understand why many people here support Trump. This realization has taken a while to crystallize for me and I live here.
The basic problem is that both political parties here, the Democrats and Republicans, have developed a powerful cabal of insiders who basically determine who gets to run to be elected for President. Each party has rich contributors including businesses as well as wealthy individuals, both from countries around the world as well as US-based.
It has come to the point that these political elites ignore the desire of the “grass roots,” i.e. the little guy. Many of the little guys are getting upset over the socialist bent of both parties, immigration, the out-of-control EPA, a huge national debt, and a myriad of other problems. Again, this applies to both parties. The elites and their politicians obviously approve of these things that the little guy abhors. If the elites didn’t like them, the policies would have been changed already.
Republican example from the article:
…
The Virginia and North Carolina parties are in discussions about implementing a new requirement for candidates to qualify for their primary ballots: that they pledge to support the Republican presidential nominee — and not run as a third-party candidate — in the general election…
…
http://hotair.com/archives/2015/08/25/gops-new-idea-to-stop-trump-make-candidates-pledge-to-support-the-nominee-in-order-to-qualify-for-the-ballot/
Democrat example:
…
While the press is directing the bulk of its coverage to the Donald Trump GOP side show and to various polls being released, Hillary Clinton is quietly working behind the scenes to amass the support of party leaders and elected officials who will cast delegate votes at the 2016 convention. Although she will still need to do well in next year’s primaries and caucuses to become the Democratic nominee, she is doing everything she can in the meantime to make her path to the nomination easier, by gathering the support of a majority of the party’s superdelegates.
…
http://www.politicususa.com/2015/08/29/hillary-clinton-moves-lock-nomination-voting-starts-super-delegate-pledges.html
An article on the Trump supporters …
…
Since Mr. Trump announced, I’ve worked or traveled in, among other places, Southern California, Connecticut, Georgia, Virginia, New Jersey and New York’s Long Island. In all places I just talked to people. My biggest sense is that political professionals are going to have to rethink “the base,” reimagine it when they see it in their minds.
…
Something is going on, some tectonic plates are moving in interesting ways. My friend Cesar works the deli counter at my neighborhood grocery store. He is Dominican, an immigrant, early 50s, and listens most mornings to a local Hispanic radio station, La Mega, on 97.9 FM. Their morning show is the popular “El Vacilón de la Mañana,” and after the first GOP debate, Cesar told me, they opened the lines to call-ins, asking listeners (mostly Puerto Rican, Dominican, Mexican) for their impressions. More than half called in to say they were for Mr. Trump. Their praise, Cesar told me a few weeks ago, dumbfounded the hosts. I later spoke to one of them, who identified himself as D.J. New Era. He backed Cesar’s story. “We were very surprised,” at the Trump support, he said. Why? “It’s a Latin-based market!”
…
He added, “We don’t bloc vote anymore.” The idea of a “Latin vote” is “disparate,” which he said generally translates as nonsense, but which he means as “bull—-.”
…
I will throw in here that almost wherever I’ve been this summer, I kept meeting immigrants who are or have grown conservative—more men than women, but women too.
America is so in play.
And: “the base” isn’t the limited, clichéd thing it once was, it’s becoming a big, broad jumble that few understand
On the subject of elites, I spoke to Scott Miller, co-founder of the Sawyer Miller political-consulting firm, who is now a corporate consultant. He worked on the Ross Perot campaign in 1992 and knows something about outside challenges. He views the key political fact of our time as this: “Over 80% of the American people, across the board, believe an elite group of political incumbents, plus big business, big media, big banks, big unions and big special interests—the whole Washington political class—have rigged the system for the wealthy and connected.” It is “a remarkable moment,” he said. More than half of the American people believe “something has changed, our democracy is not like it used to be, people feel they no longer have a voice.”
…
http://www.wsj.com/articles/america-is-so-in-play-1440715262
Tony also may want to consider some other factors:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/meet-the-prominent-white-nationalists-fired-up-to-support-do#.vrVX6JZ5O
More background for Tony:
http://reason.com/blog/2015/07/15/trump-appeals-to-racist-voters-former
In the new multicultural regime ‘racist’ has only one meaning: “I’m liberal and have no other argument to support my position.”
jim2
I am just about to start reading this so my comment a few seconds ago to you should be viewed with that in mind…
tonyb
More background:
from jim2’s comment:
OK. That looks promising for Trump, eh?
Oh. Wait:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-finds-hispanic-disapproval-of-trump-rhetoric-on-illegal-immigrants/2015/07/15/a39f53fc-2b05-11e5-a250-42bd812efc09_story.html
I don’t know why Trump is a subject here, but I suspect he will get more support from the general public if he supports getting the illegal alien problem under control. I’m an inmigrant and I’m very concerned with the excessive flow of illegals we have seen since The Clinton and Bush presidencies. Both of them were terrible controlling the borders.
I see support of illegal aliens as a two pronged issue. The left wants to pack the country with people they know have a tendency to vote left. If we leave it up to them they’ll pack the country with poor Mexicans and Central Americans, and put a radical leftist in the presidency.
On the other hand, Bush was very lax and allowed tons of illegals in because the elites like to keep wages down for the poor and the lower end of the wage scale. They are so greedy they can’t look beyond 12 months, want those cheap fruit puckers and chicken farm workers to put in endless hours working for peanuts. A pox on both their houses, somebody has to look out for the country, and neither the GOP nor the democrats do it.
The US used to have a tight immigration policy that to some extent caused a brain drain because the US got the best and brightest.
In the computer age when we need the best and brightest immigrants… who are we letting crawl under the fence?
It is beyond absurd. Illegal immigration guarantees we will get the least honest, least qualified people coming into the country. They have not only proven their dishonesty by sneaking into the country (along with foreign agents and professional criminals) but aside from crimes in their country have typically committed theft and vandalism getting into this one.
The Chinese have a 7 IQ point edge on us as it is now. Are we aiming for 17?
We should be allowing immigration by people who could qualify for an H-1B.
PA:
Um… You do realize a significant percentage of illegal immigrants come here legally, right? A lot of people aren’t crawling under fences; they’re coming in under legitimate visas then just not leaving when the visas expire. Ignoring such basic points and calling “the least honest, least qualified people,” when that’s nothing but cheap rhetoric just shows the absurdity of your remark:
I mean, leaving aside the nonsensical nature of your statistic, you’re hardly demonstrating a standard of intelligence people should strive for.
Jim
I absolutely get everything you say. A substantial chunk of American voters feel disenfranchised by politicians who don’t listen to them.
We have exactly the same in the UK where we are totally fed up with insincere and untalented career politicians who go straight from University to becoming part of a political party machine and have no experience of the real world. I am the President and only member of ‘A plague on all your parties’ party!
It is a sad indictment of the way things have been going in many of the big Western Democracies that we despise our politicians.
This guy might be elected leader of the main UK opposition party
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/27/jeremy-corbyn-labour-membership-policy-leadership
He is a radical left winger with daft and unrealistic policies who stands no chance of becoming UK Prime Minister but he is sincere and appears to listen. Besides him the other candidates look listless and vapid.
I can’t believe the poor choice of candidates the American system continually throws up for President.
Obama? Really? Hillary Clinton? Why? I still have the mug my son brought back from the US a few years ago with ‘Vote for Mitt Romney’ emblazoned on it. So I can see why Trump appeals. However, that a bullying misogynistic and unpleasant multi billionaire is considered a saviour and ‘one of us’ speaks volumes for the quality of his Pr Machine and the desperation of ordinary people.
It up to you who to vote for of course, but I don’t see a President Trump. Mind you I don’t see a President Clinton either. Whether any credible candidates that have all the qualities you want will come to the fore remains to be seen.
No offence meant, but distance certainly doesn’t lend enchantment to Mr Trump.
tonyb
I respect your opinion, Tony. I do see why you dislike Trump.
I could totally get behind Fiorina, Walker, or Cruz. I believe they are all strong against illegal immigration and anchor babies. Carson isn’t strong on immigration, so I couldn’t support him.
Another “power that be” here is the press. I take it is even worse in the UK where the media is state owned.
From the article:
…
Why are Republicans letting CNN pick our presidential nominee? Fox I might understand, but CNN?
Confused? Not a surprise. Most in the GOP don’t realize what is happening — except those in the highest level of the establishment in Washington, D.C. Us folks out in the cornfields, well, we’re just going about our regular lives blissfully unaware how the game, I mean nomination process, is being taken away from us.
…
Case in point: The move by the Republican National Committee and the major television networks to decide on their own which candidates we will be able to watch debate in prime time. By ignoring candidates’ standings in Iowa and New Hampshire, they are moving us toward a national primary, thereby negating our role in the nominating process.
…
The result: a candidate that ranks 5th in Iowa in each of three post-Fox polls, and 3rd and 5th in New Hampshire in two post-Fox polls will be excluded from the main debate stage and prime time coverage. From a national perspective the Real Clear Politics polling average puts this candidate in a solid 7th position — well inside the cut line — yet not on the debate stage.
…
Who is the GOP establishment and CNN conspiring to keep off the stage? Carly Fiorina.
…
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/2015/08/29/column-republicans-letting-cnn-pick-president/71390128/
Jim
The media isn’t state owned over here. The media are ferociously independent and are renowned for embarrassing the govt! but they do have their left or right wing bias.
Carly fiorina has received some approving noises over here but as yet I would say that most Brits are unaware of the candidates at this early stage of the race other than Jeb bush and Hillary Clinton and of course trump who is not perceived well over here at all.
I think it is generally perceived that the US is losing its pre eminence as a world power and has been weak on international terrorism and standing up to Russia and china.
I am not sure if this aspect of an aparently declining superpower and its abdication as the worlds policeman and conscience has any bearing on how people will vote?
Tonyb
climatereason:
They also just have a national bias, meaning it’s difficult to interpret things like:
As views like that vary from country to country, often based on a variety of different factors. For instance, Russia was a much earlier adopter of that view than the UK, which is part of what helped encourage its greater amounts of aggression.
In my experience, it seems the view you describe seems to often come along with a simple growing dislike for the United States. As countries come to like the US less, they view it as weaker. Personally, I think they have a number of valid points, but I think many of those points existed well before these countries acknowledged them.
Brandon
I certainly wouldn’t say that America is disliked.we may see it sometimes as our brash and arrogant younger cousin, but we also see it as our close friend and ally, which is why there is concern over its apparent relative decline.
It does not appear to want to lead any more either militarily or in pointing out human right infringements. It is difficult to believe that the US of a decade ago would have stood by to see Crimea annexed or the threats to Georgia and the Baltic states, who are being intimidated.
I can’t see who will reinvigorate your country although economically you should get stronger as fracking is giving you such low energy costs that high price Europe will find it difficult to compete with.
Tonyb
Tony>”However, that a bullying misogynistic and unpleasant multi billionaire…”
It would be interesting to know how you came by those opinions (bullying misognynistic) of The Donald. Also, I don’t see a Trump PR machine at work, other than the man himself. He gets a lot of attention, because he doesn’t cower to the press and he doesn’t follow the PC rules. He is not a prisoner of either party’s establishment. And the reasonable presumption is that he can’t be bought by corporate lobbyists or the unions. I would like to see Walker or Rubio in the lead, but they are not getting it done. We have to play the hand we are dealt. If Trump is the nominee, I will be all in.
The little despicable clown up thread trying to brand Trump as a racist must be scared that the Donald is on to something.
tonyb
Did we say thanks for destroying your industrial base with green energy fantasies.
We in the US have yet to go along with the democrats and Obama and may yet derail the coal train destruction plan of the EPA. So much easier to take on make believe enemies like control the rise of the sea or reduce carbon induced temperature rise. So much the better if the results can’t be measured.
Slowly the voting public comes to in common senses.
Now the China state controlled crony capitalism is collapsing along with Venezuela and Russian energy state run business plans.
Always a pleasure to see your comments.
Scott
climatereason:
I couldn’t think of a good way to word that. I guess “liked less” might have done it? The point is people start losing respect for the United States, and that makes them think the United States’s position is slipping. There’s often some truth to it, but there’s also just the bias of respecting an entity less making you perceive them less.
I might agree on the military issues as the United States’s diplomatic approach has definitely changed within the last decade, but honestly, the United States has been fairly toothless on a lot of things for quite a while. I don’t think that’s changed much.
Just look at your human rights example. The United States basically led the charge in doing nothing about two genocides in two decades. What’s so different about this last decade? I guess it hasn’t been as vocal about being the world’s savior lately, but not making as many promises you know you won’t keep seems like a good thing to me.
The reality is the United States has long wanted to back away from much of what its been doing. There’s been a growing isolationist streak for quite some time. Quite frankly, I’m not sure that’s a bad thing. The United States got as heavily involved in other countries as it did after World War II because of the Cold War, but there’s a strong argument to be made that involvement made things worse.
I don’t think the country needs reinvigorating in the sense you mean it. I think it just needs a clear goal. I doubt that will happen though. There’s too much internal strife right now.
> I guess “liked less” might have done it?
DEFINITION. A country of population P with a presidential candidate PC has a robust overcombed-hair of length J-MAX is less liked if, for every interval of Candidacy Noisy Newsies CNN, a dubious tyran DT (who belong to the PC set) appears more than anyone in PC|DT.
Tony, concerning your point that US power is declining, that is a big concern among the grass roots over here also.
And, that is one reason Trump is viewed favorably among some over here. He is viewed as strong and, more than that, one that loves and honors our country.
I would much rather have Trump represent me with Putin than Obumbles.
branadoon mutters>”The United States got as heavily involved in other countries as it did after World War II because of the Cold War, but there’s a strong argument to be made that involvement made things worse.”
Can you name some of the countries that would have been better off, if the Untied States had declined to defend the planet from communist aggression and tyranny, you naive twerp?
tonyb
Actually, we are your Mommy, Daddy, Older brother and rich Uncle. The US has been supporting Europe with brains, blood and treasure for nearly 100-years. The “concern” about this so-called “decline” is that we are getting tired of bankrolling adolescents who still can’t get along with each other and are afraid we will make you pull your own weight.
Notice how Americans don’t give a hoot about European affairs while Europe understands US current events better than Americans. Y’all are so weak from dependency, you are obsessed with US and your go-to move is to tell us we are weak and in decline. I hope you enjoy pounding sand.
Say what you will about Trump, his America first attitude is why he is so popular on the right and left.
America’s decline is no myth.
From 1945 to 1970, America was almost literally the majority of world GDP (also true but less so from 1918 to 1944).
With the rise of China and East Asia in general, this is no longer true.
https://infogr.am/Share-of-world-GDP-throughout-history
Of course, note that this has nothing to do with America’s GDP per capita or absolute US GDP declining, it has to do with the rest of the world (China/East Asia) having grown so much faster. Nonetheless the reduced economic dominance of the American economy directly equals less control over net world resources and in turn less ability to dominate economically and militarily.
Trump has a positive take charge message.
Opponents that are handwringers, preaching the doctrine of decline, the need for more government at the expense of freedom, or are apologetic about America are going to look bad by comparison.
In the run-up to the Paris climate change meeting expect Obama to engineer elementary school teachers to compose a letter to him extolling the need to implement his climate agenda policies, just as he did with two letters, from hand picked 1) scientists and 2) retired admirals and generals – these letters did not appear out of thin air but have the smell and finger prints of Science Advisor John Holdren, Chief of Staff Denis McDonough and previous Chief of Staff John Podesta all over them. This is characteristic of all of the Obama policies during his term in office, managing the debate by controlling the messaging much like Russian “otdel agitatsii i propagandy” a.k.a. “agitprop” of Communist Russia and the work of Nazi chief propagandist Joseph Goebbels … The current letters no doubt were counseled and composed by team Obama. Congress needs to take steps to require that any agreement / signing of accords requires treatment as a treaty with approval of the Senate. It is one way to “nudge” the administration policy following techniques outlined in Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler book “Nudge” (Cass Sunstein, U of C law now Harvade, was Administrator of Information and Regulatory Affairs in Obama’s first term. Unlike the Iran nuke deal, any agreement coming out of the Paris meeting should be considered a “treat” requiring Senate approval; and steps need to be taken prior to the meeting to make them toe the line.
I think the bigger problem is that many of us have left the field of politics open to simple activists with simple, but angry, demands.
It is too easy to assume that sensible people will be left watching the hearth, while we all try to get on with our lives in a sensible fashion.
I’ll plead guilty to having done that.
From the article:
…
Flashback: ABC News Envisioned Apocalyptic 2015 Triggered By Climate Change [VIDEO]
…
ABC News correspondent Bob Woodruff says the show “puts participants in the future and asks them to report back about what it is like to live in this future world. The first stop is the year 2015.”
…
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Flashback: ABC News Envisioned Apocalyptic 2015 Triggered By Climate Change [VIDEO]
Photo of Kerry Picket
KERRY PICKET
Reporter
1:53 PM 08/29/2015
3050412
ABC News ran a news special in 2009 called Earth 2100, a program warning its viewers about the dangers of climate change.
ABC News correspondent Bob Woodruff says the show “puts participants in the future and asks them to report back about what it is like to live in this future world. The first stop is the year 2015.”
A Harvard University professor says, “We’re going to see more floods, more droughts, more wildfires.”
Other voices can be heard saying that “Flames cover hundreds of square mile” and “We expect more intense hurricanes.” Another voice says, “Well, how warm is it going to get? How much will sea level rise? We don’t know really know where the end is.”
Describing dangerous temperature levels and dropping agricultural production, the news package brings in The Weather Channel’s Heidi Cullen, who says, “There’s about one billion people who are malnourished. That number just continually grows.”
The doomsday predictions for 2015 go further and include $12.00 for a gallon of milk and $9.00 a gallon for gasoline, if there is any gas at all that is left.
Newsbusters notes that then ABC anchor Chris Cuomo, who teased the special at the time, said to Woodruff of the predictions, “I think we’re familiar with some of these issues, but, boy, 2015? That’s seven years from now. Could it really be that bad?”
Woodruff replies, “It’s very soon, you know. But all you have to do is look at the world today right today. You know, you’ve got gas prices going up. You got food prices going up. You’ve got extreme weather. The scientists have studied this for decades. They say if you connect the dots, you can actually see that we’re approaching maybe even a perfect storm. Or you have got shrinking resources, population growth. Climate change. So, the idea now is to look at it, wake up about it and then try to do something to fix it.”
…
http://dailycaller.com/2015/08/29/flashback-abc-news-envisioned-apocalyptic-world-triggered-by-climate-change-video/#ixzz3kGG02y3L
WTI dipped below $40 last week then shot up to ~ $45 at the end of the week. The contango dropped to ~$3. Typically, this would indicate the direction of the price of oil is neutral. But given the huge volatility of markets around the world lately, it’s difficult to interpret.
The price of oil is typically soft October to December, then perks up in January. So, this sudden surge in prices might not last long.
8/28/15
OIL 44.51
BRENT 49.20
NAT GAS 2.674
RBOB GAS 1.5218
Tom wrote a post about this tv show, and I wrote a comment about it. Look it over and let me know what you think https://thelukewarmersway.wordpress.com/2015/08/29/earth-2100-a-look-back/comment-page-1/#comment-8659
I think you are right that people will remember these failed predictions, projections, whatever for this piece and others … I know I do and I’m always happy to help others remember.
The President of the United States of America, says: Boo!
http://www.mrctv.org/blog/obama-prophesies-climate-nightmare-famine-floods-fire-fumes-and-fighting#.wgkxno:vCkC
And he has a secret service… of his own and is seldom alone. Yet he is afraid for us. Sweet.
“Anaxagoras, for example, got into legal trouble for claiming that the sun was a burning rock rather than a god. But there was no pagan Greek equivalent of the medieval Christian insistence on conformity to detailed doctrinal minutiæ over the precise nature of the Trinity or the Incarnation; thus the range of permissible dissent and diversity was significantly greater.”
http://www.libertarianism.org/columns/ancient-greeces-legacy-liberty-how-competition-created-greek-philosophy#.osstvq:QKFO
“But if we take “philosophy” in the strict sense of an intellectual discipline that attempts to formulate such a worldview through reasoned arguments, without appeal to tradition or authority…”
IPCC, appeal to authority. 97% consensus, appeal to authority.
“As (Karl) Popper points (out), philosophy arose on the periphery of the wider Greek world rather than in mainland Greece itself…”
My take, the Greeks (the consensus) didn’t do it sitting safely in their homes in Greece. They had to go outside of Greece and deal with other points of view.
‘ Perhaps the most powerful cause of the breakdown of the
closed society was the development of sea communications
and commerce. Close contact with other tribes is liable to
undermine the feeling of necessity with which tribal institutions
are viewed; and trade, commercial initiative, appears to be
one of the few forms in which individual initiative and
independence can assert itself, even in a society in which
tribalism still prevails. These two, seafaring and commerce,
became the main characteristics of Athenian imperialism
as it developed in the fifth century BC. And indeed they
were recognized as the most dangerous developments by
the oligarchs, the members of the privileged, or of the
formerly privileged classes, of Athens.It became clear to
them that that the trade of Athens, its monetary
commercialism, its naval policy, and its democratic
tendencies, were parts of one single movement, and that
it was impossible to defeat democracy without going to
the roots of the evil and destroying both the naval policy
and the empire.’
Karl Popper, ‘ The Open Society and Its Enemies.’ Vol 1.
Ch 10.
I think it is the ancient sun cult; going for the world.
It would explain this behavior.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34111092
Something to consider…
New Solar Window Can Make Any Glass Pane a Solar Panel
News flash for all green ignorati: The most efficient “solar panel” is insulated glass properly oriented to the sun. Just allow solar radiation in and let interior surfaces “convert” it to heat. Is the collected energy useful on a south Florida summer afternoon? Probably not. On a Wisconsin winter afternoon? Maybe. YMMV
Ohh look…someone at forbes blathering on about how ‘peak coal’ may have already occurred. Those IPCC cook the world emissions scenarios are going to be tough to meet if peak coal already occurred.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/mclifford/2015/09/03/chinas-economic-slowdown-we-may-have-seen-peak-coal/