Week in review

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Climate Politics

Carbon Brief: What’s the deal with this U.N. Climate Summit? http://bit.ly/1rdWsZI

Carbon Brief: US hints at vision for a new global climate deal [link]

Economist:  Guide to actions that have done the most to slow global warming [link]

Why Al Gore is hopeful about global warming [link]

Essential reading from @jeffgoodell ahead of the UN climate summit: “China, the Climate and the Fate of the Planet” http://rol.st/1r2Koc5

You can watch House Science hearing w/WH adviser John Holdren & EPA’s McCabe testifying on Obama’s climate rule here: [link]

Obama Delays Climate Change Plan, Casting Shadow Over UN Climate Summit [link]

Rupert Darwall: The UN’s Climate Summit Charade [link]

Dems tie climate skeptics to tobacco, lead backers [link]

Bobby Jindahl’s soft climate change skepticism [link]

Ross McKitrick: Climate change and the false case for haste  [link]

Pakistan Flood 2014- Lesson Identified Never Learned [link]

New publications

Ten strategies to systematically exploit all options to cope with anthropogenic climate change [link]

Roger Pielke Jr: Have you heard that climate change means that wetter areas get wetter and drier areas more dry? Well, it is wrong–> [link]

The curious case of Indian Ocean warming http://buff.ly/ZmcypA

Is there a ‘heat-or-eat’ trade-off in the UK? Yes [link]

Climate science wars

Hugely important WSJ editorial from Steve Koonins (chair of APS committee to examine their public policy statement). [link]

Richard Lindzen’s first essay for CATO [link]

Mark Steyn: The Lonesomest Mann in Town [link]

Mark Steyn: The Barbra Streisand effect on steroids – #AskDrMann [link]

Sou from Boudanga: Fool Judith Curry denier off the scale: CO2 no influence on centennial times scales [link]

JC’s calendar

Here is an update on my travel schedule:

Sept 22/23:  Washington DC: Environmental Law Institute Workshop on The Ethics of Communicating Scientific Uncertainty: Understanding How Scientists, Environmental Lawyers, and Journalists Treat Uncertainty

Sept 25/26: Houston TX: Texas Public Policy Foundation Conference: At the Crossroads: Energy and Climate Policy Summit

Oct 1:  Oberlin University: Debate with Pat Michaels

Oct 6-17:  Nanjing, China

Oct 23-26:  London, Ontario: Rotman Institute of Philosophy Conference on Knowledge and Models in Climate Science

November 10:  Ohio University Lecture: State of the Climate Debate

November 13:  Tampa FL  Lecture to Georgia Tech Alumni Association

Cartoon of the week

And finally, for cartoon of the week, Megan Darby tweets: This polar bear, meanwhile, is doing sit-ups for the climate [link]

Slide1

1,111 responses to “Week in review

  1. “Debate with Pat Michaels”. So you disagree on something?

  2. Events this week have raised many questions:

    The 2009 Climategate emails and the current effort to prevent public debate through legal action have increased interest in two questionable models that appeared in 1946 as consensus science [1]:

    1. Stars are filled with Hydrogen
    2. Neutrons attract other neutrons

    [In fact stars make and discard Hydrogen and atomic bombs explode because neutrons repel neutrons]

    Were these models designed to prevent public knowledge of the source of energy that destroyed Hiroshima [2]?

    An almost complete “black-out” of news on the CHAOS & FEAR of nuclear annihilation that followed Stalin’s capture of Japan’s atomic bomb plant at Konan, Korea in late August 1945 [3] made it difficult for the public to decide if perhaps Stalin:

    1. Emerged victorious from WWII, and
    2. Established the UN on 24 Oct 1945 to expand totalitarian control globally [4]?

    The scientific method will provide the answer because ultimately, “Truth is victorious, never untruth!”

    References:

    1. “Why Did You Deceive Us?” Message to the Congressional Space Science & Technology Committee (Dec 2013):https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/WHY.pdf

    2. “Solar Energy,” Advances in Astronomy (Submitted 1 Sept 2014)

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Solar_Energy.pdf

    3. Aston’s WARNING (12 Dec 1922); CHAOS and FEAR (August 1945)https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/CHAOS_and_FEAR_August_1945.pdf

    4. Did Stalin Plan To Rule The World?

    http://www.americanthinker.com/2014/09/educational_reforms_are_crushing_our_people_comments.html#comment-1595712934

  3. Curious case? ” The results here reveal a larger picture–that the western tropical Indian Ocean has been warming for more than a century, at a rate faster than any other region of the tropical oceans, and turns out to be the largest contributor to the overall trend in the global mean sea surface temperature (SST)”

    Who wudda thunk it.

  4. Wow, you are one busy woman.

  5. From the article:

    U.S. crude oil fell on Friday, on track for its fourth daily decline on continued concerns about ample supply at a time of weak global economic data and fragile demand.

    Brent crude hovered near $98 a barrel, up about 70 cents a barrel. U.S. crude ended down 66 cents at $92.41 a barrel. Both contracts saw their biggest drop in more than two weeks on Thursday.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102014709

  6. Polar bears doing situps is nothing. We learnt this week that polar bears have set up and operated their own website, polarbearsience.com, to tell the world they are doing fine, according to standup comic Michael Loftus.

  7. From the article:

    Analysts say prices could fall to a range of $3.15 to $3.25, and that more than 30 states can expect prices under $3 a gallon.

    Typically when gas prices fall, it has a positive impact on consumer spending. Gasbuddy says that due to the decline in prices consumers will spend $2.5 billion less on gas this fall than they did last year and that the money saved could trickle into other areas of the economy.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102009582

    • Gas prices function just like a tax. It is money out of the economy and into the government kitty.

      • Of course money going into the government kitty isn’t spent and so doesn’t re-enter the economy. Oh wait…

      • It is spent. It’s just spent on stuff no one wants. It get diverted to friends of the Administration and Congressional campaign fund supporters. It attracts con men and others who get rich off tax dollars while supplying nothing of value.

        Not every dollar meets this fate, but too many do.

      • Gas prices function just like a tax. It is money out of the economy and into the government kitty.

        Well, no. Except for actual gas taxes, most of it goes to businesses along the supply chain. Especially the big oil companies. Much of that is as badly wasted as taxes, but some isn’t. We can expect a shake-out as prices for solar come down: the oil companies who spent money preparing for new technology will prosper, the others will go under.

        Hopefully.

      • Of course it re-enters the economy – just at a lower value.

      • Exxon Mobil’s research and development costs from 2001 to 2013 (in million U.S. dollars)

        This statistic shows the research and development costs of Exxon Mobil from 2001 to 2013. In 2008, Exxon Mobil’s research and development costs amounted to 847 million U.S. dollars. Exxon Mobil is a U.S. based multi-national oil and gas corporation. In the last five years, Exxon Mobil was either the largest or second largest company in the world based on generated revenue. The Exxon Mobil Corporation is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

      • For comparison: Exxon Mobil’s exploration expenses from 2001 to 2013 (in million U.S. dollars)*

        This statistic shows the exploration expenses of Exxon Mobil from 2001 to 2013. In 2008, Exxon Mobil’s exploration expenses amounted to approximately 1.45 billion U.S. dollars. Exxon Mobil is a U.S. based multi-national oil and gas corporation. In the last five years, Exxon Mobil was either the largest or second largest company in the world based on generated revenue. The Exxon Mobil Corporation is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

        IOW they spent more than half as much on research as on actual exploration.

      • For the middle middle class and lower, the increase in gas prices is like a tax in the sense that the additional money spent on gas is not spent in other areas of the economy. The only way for most Americans to compensate is to drive less, which means less recreational driving, shorter or fewer vacations, etc. This impacts the economy. They cannot drive 75% of the way to work, school, or grandma’s house. Also, the cost of fuel is,built into the price of almost every product and service. So, an increase in fuel prices functions like a tax.

        Here is a good graph of the inflation adjusted cost of gas vs year. Notice the run up in prices before the great recession.

        http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/gas-prices-inflation-adjusted.jpg?00cfb7

        Justin

      • So, an increase in fuel prices functions like a tax.

        In many ways, yes. Not in all.

      • …and politicians and public servants also pay their taxes, just like everybody else.

    • Near $2 per LITRE is the norm in the UK thanks to government tax junkies.

    • Obama keeps getting saved economically by things he opposes.

      He’s like a starving conservationist that accidentally shoots a whopping crane.

  8. If you watch the original Al Gore video, you will note that the phrases “we were amazed” and “they were amazed” occurred more than a dozen times. The implication was that climate scientists were amazed that things were much worse than they had expected. Lately, the climate scientists seem amazed that things are much better than they predicted. Altogether, it leads one to conclude that climate scientists are continually amazed because their models aren’t any good.

  9. From “Obama Delays Climate Change Plan”

    “In a conference call with reporters, the Environmental Protection Agency said it was extending the public comment period on the power plant rules for an additional 45 days, until 1 December.”

    Of course, there is an election in November. I guess the POTUS doen’t think he can sell that plan tp the people. He is hoping for some MSM amnesia before the next election. I wonder how that tar sands oil pipeline thingy is going …

    JustinWonder about the whole thing…

  10. From the article (my emphasis):

    Summary

    Montney contains almost 29 billion barrels of natural gas liquids and over 136 billion barrels of oil.

    Liquids-rich Middle Montney is where the real action is.

    Enough shale gas to supply Canada’s needs for 145 years.

    In the world of a constantly changing oil and gas environment, the Montney shale basin is the sleeping giant that holds the key to accelerating Canada’s shale oil and gas boom, but the real treasure within this giant is a tight liquids-rich zone (approximately 15-20 miles wide) that has big and small players alike narrowing their focus for the potential of a giant payout.

    A pervasive hydrocarbon system in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) in Alberta and British Columbia, the Montney is estimated to hold 2,200 trillion cubic feet of gas, almost 29 billion barrels of natural gas liquids and over 136 billion barrels of oil. But it is the tight liquids-rich fairway (approximately 15-20 miles wide) that contains high concentrations of both free condensate and natural gas liquids that everyone is pursuing in what may very soon be one of the largest commercially viable plays in the world.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2508465-canadas-shale-boom-more-to-come-in-montney

    • I wouldn´t use a Seeking Alpha article to study potential oil resources. The Montney´s “oil” isn´t producible. What the Montney has is gas, condensate, and NGLs. I noticed there´s a tendency by some parties to mix the condensate with the NGL figures, and the provincial authorities don´t seem to enforce a reliable breakdown. My guess is the Montney will become the largest single condensate source they can use to dilute the heavy oil. And eventually the gas from the Montney will be the largest gas source in Canada.

    • I think you are right about that. The article should have stated it in BOE terms. But, condensate is a valuable resource in its own right, used by chemical plants.

      • Jim2, believe or not I was a process engineer in the 1970’s. The first computer models I learned to run were process simulators. I’ve noticed some nomenclature issues in the industry, some of it driven by the desire to hype the stock.

        Condensate can be a really good refinery feed. The condensate from very high pressure and temperature reservoirs can have a chemical composition almost identical to a light crude oil.

        Unfortunately the reporting systems don’t give us the detailed chemistry breakdown. So what we see is a blurring of natural gas liquids with condensates. Some operators even try to label them as crude oil. To make matters even more complicated in some jurisdictions the royalties change depending on the way the hydrocarbons are marketed.

        In general the prices go up as the hydrocarbons get heavier up to a point. Then they start coming down because the product slate has asphalt and residual fuel oil, which requires cracking and hydrogenation before it can be cycled into the refinery proper.

        And indeed watch out for those pesky BOEs. They are used to hype stock value. I think the government is sort of playing along. They want people euphoric and confident so they keep buying Chinese goods and the world economy will hum until reality sinks in.

  11. Alternative News Now

    Reblogged this on Canadian Climate Guy and commented:
    Judith Curry – week in review.

  12. Global Warming Causes Mental Illness, Cancer

    Global warming could lead to a worldwide increase in mental illness and cancer, according to a new U.S. government report calling for more public funding to further study one of the “most visible environmental concerns of the 21st century.”

    Government scientists from several agencies—including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institute of Environmental Health Science, the State Department and the Environmental Protection Agency—claim that “higher ambient temperatures” caused by global warming will increase cancer rates and catastrophic natural disasters as the world warms will create stress and anxiety that lead to mental illness…

    (http://www.judicialwatch.org/blog/2010/04/global-warming-causes-mental-illness-cancer/ )

    • Wagathon,

      It seems that belief in global warming has already caused mental illness. This no doubt explains the affliction known as Warmism.

      Prior to this breakthrough, I surmised that Warmists merely suffered from delusional psychoses. I now see my error.

      Thank you.

      Live well and prosper,

      Mike Flynn.

      • Do you think the Left actually believe no one ever stopped smoking until the sin tax on cigarettes was raised from 50¢ to $5 /pack? What the Left has done pretty well is boost marijuana sales, create the vaping industry and help rob the bread from the mouths of children in poor families with smoking parents.

      • Wagathon,
        and helped “rob the bread from the mouths of children in poor families with smoking parents.” Don’t you know in the creed of the Left it’s there own damn fault. There can never be a victim of Progressivism…not part of the fabric of their universe.

      • David Springer

        Any questions, Waggy?

      • david springer supplies a lovely chart which unfortunately does not include black market cigarette sales. without doubt cigarette consumption has dropped in the west as a result of health information campaigns ,but not to the extent the chart shows below.

        in the uk it is likely black market cigarette consumption is in excess of 50% in some areas , people will only take so much taxation before they do something about it,in the uk that time passed a long time ago for cigarettes and to some extent energy costs.

        more people are using red diesel (tax exempt in the uk) and one of the reasons for increasing energy bills the power companies do not mention is theft of both electricity and gas. various tricks abound ,usually involving electricity and gas meters rigged by professionals to earn extra income. this is prevalent in the uk among a certain demographic and will only increase in line with escalating energy costs.

      • David Springer

        Got some kind of data to support you claim, chilly?

        Probably not, eh Climate Etc readers? ;-)

      • Uh, Springer, it is called a black market because the activities are not done in the open.

      • What has the increase in legal and illicit drug use been in the US since the 80s and is that habit any better and less ‘sinful’ than a cigarette habit? State-run lotteries are more sinful than a smoker’s habit?

      • David, can you kindly point out where the steady decline in consumption since ~1982 suddenly accelerates in line with the huge increase in price?

      • David Springer

        1970-1982 consumption rises as price declines.
        1982-present consumption declines as price rises

        Claim was made that data doesn’t include black market sales. That’s incorrect. Consumption is consumption regardless of source. The graph doesn’t say total legal sales it says consumption. Duh.

      • More like sales fall when high school cannot buy a pack for 50¢ (including matches) in a coin operated laundry. So, they buy grass instead… or, crank or crack or coke or glue or whatever…

      • White lightning. Gov’t never makes anything better, unless you believe handing out free needles to prevent AIDS is being compassionate.

      • David, the price shot up to nearly double between 1998 and 2002. That is not reflected in the consumption graph.

      • Consumption continued to go down after 1998. It had gone down a lot, before that. Some people can’t, or don’t want to, give up their smokes no matter what the price. Study up on price elasticity demand curve:

        https://www.google.com/search?q=price+elasticity+of+demand+curve&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=sb

  13. Judy,
    Congratulations on the discussion of Dr. Koonen in the WSJ. As you know, as the head of the APS panel and past undersec for Science for DOE which does much of the modeling, his transformation is a major blow to the settled science CAGW hypothesis. Your presentation plus the others in the APS review had spectacular results.

    Congratulations on your effectiveness.
    Scott

    • I agree. Dr. Koonen’s essay is pretty amazing. I wonder if he tried to publish it in the NYTimes as well.

      It will be very interesting to see what the APS does next.

      The APS meeting and transcript is what prompted me to dig into CAGW deeply.

      Lindzen’s essay is great next to Koonen’s.

      • ” wonder if he tried to publish it in the NYTimes as well.”

        Ah yes, the very belly of the Progressive beast. I suspect as a certain point they’ll just go silent on the subject, hoping people will forget their pathetic credulity,

      • Prudence Plancher Glissant

        Ah, well, too bad he’s a BOFD.

    • Scott: Right on. I raise a toast to her. This is the start. The wall is starting to crumble; the climate wall is falling!

      Dr Curry: This may soon come true – “I would make sure the observations are funded (satellite, monitoring, and important process experiments). I would then spend funding on basic research related to climate dynamics (none of impacts stuff or endless analysis of model output) including solar physics. We need to entrain physicists, mathematicians, engineers, chemists and computer scientists for an infusion of new approaches to understanding the climate system.”

  14. “Dems tie climate skeptics to tobacco, lead backers”

    Waiting for just one Climate Etc. warmist to concede how cynically off the mark this is…Is there one of you with the integrity?

  15. re Darvall link:

    Mr Ban will not
    be over the
    moon that
    a globul treaty
    on fossil fuel
    emissions is
    out of reach-
    he wants
    to convey that
    it’s jest over
    the
    horizon.

  16. “Hugely important WSJ editorial from Steve Koonins (chair of APS committee to examine their public policy statement). ”

    Heartening piece. Seems we can be optimistic about their upcoming policy statement. Something expressing a little humility rather than the usual sneering hyper-certainty would be welcome indeed.

  17. Did you hear climate change was the main driver in the Scottish vote?

    • Well for peat’s sake…

    • No true Scotsman would believe that!

    • Whatever happened to Braveheart? I can never watch that movie again knowing they finally had a chance to be a sovereign nation and they lost heart.

      • We had a chance to become a nation without a currency, ruled by various flavours of left and green intent on selling everything we had in desperation to rejoin the EU. No thanks.

      • Justin,

        Braveheart bore as much relationship to the real facts as Al Gore’s ‘An inconvenient truth’ movie. Both overhyped nonsense. but only one got the attention of the High Court.
        tonyb

    • it was certainly a deciding factor in my decision to vote no. the ludicrous charge to be 100% reliant on renewable energy by the scottish national party would see the elderly in real trouble when the first proper scottish winter hit,never mind the cost to industry as a result of power outages when the wind stopped blowing and the sun stopped shining. a regular occurrence in any scottish winter,mild or severe.

      • Bitchilly

        It’s about now as the sun loses its strength that my solar powered lights lose their effectiveness. Give it another month and they won’t come on at all.

        So let’s add lowlight levels and the fact that solar power doesn’t work in the dark and wind doesn’t work in times of too low and too high a wind.

        I am a bit baffled as to why Scotland was promoted as being the alternative energy capital of Europe. It’s not renowned for its sunshine and a great deal of those wonderful uplands would have to be covered in turbines for them to have any noticeable impact on energy supplies.

        You have some hydro and the ocean is at present woefully under exploited, as it is in the rest of the Uk. Unfortunately wave and tide technology is at least twenty years behind that of wind.

        Tonyb

      • tony b,

        Please keep the space in bit chilly’s moniker. When I first saw your comment, I thought it was an adverb.

  18. Judith, You look like a busy bee for somebody who’s in the ostracized camp.

  19. Matthew R Marler

    The curious case of Indian Ocean warming http://buff.ly/ZmcypA

    Important contribution to knowledge of the hydrologic cycle, I think. It is remarkable that two areas of ocean so near to each other warmed by such different amounts.

    Hugely important WSJ editorial from Steve Koonins (chair of APS committee to examine their public policy statement). [link]

    That was a good essay.

    • Very remarkable. Worked for Chu and BP renewables.
      ===========

    • In the article, we find that the asymmetry in ENSO forcing (El Niño warms up the Indian Ocean, while La Niña doesn’t), and the positive skewness (more El Niños) during recent decades explain the century-long warming trends over the Indian Ocean. The study suggests that, even without greenhouse gas forcing, El Niños may piles up the heat over the Indian Ocean. There is a twist here though. The positive skewness of ENSO is most likely due to greenhouse warming.

      • Matthew R Marler

        Roxy Mathew Koll: There is a twist here though. The positive skewness of ENSO is most likely due to greenhouse warming.

        I believe that it is possibly due to greenhouse gas warming, but the evidence is full of holes.

      • It switched to negative skewness at high atmospheric co2 and even higher human emissions.

      • Haven’t explored this last aspect, Matthew :)

      • Perhaps the Indian Ocean is warming due to GHGs. It then becomes interesting as to why it cooled into the LIA. Perhaps Atlantis actually didn’t sink until the top of the MWP and they were advanced and industrialized but too stupid to leave the island? Probably sunk by their own emissions!

        Multidecadal variability in East African hydroclimate controlled by the Indian Ocean

        Tierney et al 2013

      • steven, I doubt that. The Indian Ocean doesn’t mix well due to the northern out flow blocked by land and the low THC flow in general. So the IO lags the Western Pacific by roughly 7.5 years, but the lag is irregular.

        Using the Oppo et al 2009 Indo-Pacific Warm Pool reconstruction, the IO has been warming slowly since 1700.

        There is that little long term persistence issue which hasn’t been “discovered” by the right people yet.

      • Dallas, the paper I referenced goes back much further. As to the ability of the Indian Ocean to cause warming elsewhere see Lee et al 2011.

      • steven, “Dallas, the paper I referenced goes back much further. As to the ability of the Indian Ocean to cause warming elsewhere see Lee et al 2011.”

        Going back very far tends to confuse the minions.

      • Dallas, they actually use the same reconstruction that you use but that reconstruction goes back 2000 years. They only use about 700 of them in the paper I referenced to compare with precipitation in E Africa.

      • steven, Right, but remember your audience.

        If I show them the whole reconstruction which indicates that todays temperatures are right in line with the MWP, they start freaking out. Kind of like mentioning the impact of ocean heat transport and the inherent lags associated with huge irregularly sized basins. You have to go slowly with these guys.

  20. A fan of *MORE* discourse

    BREAKING NEWS
    Record Heat By Sea-and-Land
    The “Pause” is “OVER”

    • The combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces for August 2014 was record high for the month.

    • The August global sea surface temperature beats the previous all-time record (set just two months ago in June).

    • The global land surface temperature was the second highest on record for August (behind 1998).

    Summary We live upon a planet of rising seas, heating oceans, and melting polar ice … and this heating is projected to continue, without pause or near-term limit.

    Well, *THIS* climate-science surely helps to simplify the climate-change debate, eh Climate Etc readers?

    Uhhh … unless *ALL* of this data is the result of a *MASSIVE* conspiracy of scientists, that is!

    Consensus  It’s nutty to blame the end-of-the-pause on a conspiracy of scientists … isn’t it?

    The world wonders!

    \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

    • ‘Using a new measure of coupling strength, this
      update shows that these climate modes have recently
      synchronized, with synchronization peaking in the year
      2001/02. This synchronization has been followed by an
      increase in coupling. This suggests that the climate system may well have shifted again, with a consequent break in the global mean temperature trend from the post 1976/77 warming to a new period (indeterminate length) of roughly constant global mean temperature.’ http://www.leif.org/EOS/2008GL037022.pdf

      We don’t know that oceans are still rising – but a turn around in the surface temperature anytime soon seems quite unlikely.

    • Fan, I don’t know where you got that third bullet but the NOAA is proclaiming aug 2014 beat 1998:

      “The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for August 2014 was record high for the month, at 0.75 C (1.35 F) above the 20th century average of 15.6 C (60.1 F) topping the previous record set in 1998”.

      See my link above to NOAA

    • Oh nevermind, I see it says land. My bad!

    • Don’t see the warming.

      You must be looking at NCDC temperatures… Just tilt the RSS graph 10° counterclockwise.

      Given that the NCDC is running warmer than GISS – they are drifting off into pure fantasy. The only way NCDC won’t hit a record this year is if their computers crash and they have to use real data.

      • Thanks for posting that, I wondered the same below. See my link above for the noaa land and sea temps from stations. Of course there was a whole argument in past threads about how they do their data.

      • It is also fairly revealing that NOAA put out a spokesman climatologist trumpeting this information to the public (I heard it on the radio) with no mention at all of the satellite data.

      • Well the NCDC has a computer program that tilts the temperature graph.

        Climate4you tracks the data maturity. Since 2008, January 1915 has gotten 0.12°C colder than January 2000. The difference was originally 0.39°C and now it is 0.51°C. They started the adjustments around 2001 so this isn’t the full extent of the damage.

        If it isn’t done by computer, then they have gone back in time and captured better data for 1915.

      • Bidding 10 degrees, bidding 10 degrees. Do I hear 15 degrees?
        ============

      • PA, thanks for the web site. I looked under the heading global temperatures list of contents and ‘Estimates of recent global air temperature change’ and it shows graphically exactly what your talking about. I guess Eric might think that’s conspiracy theories but it looks good to me.

      • I don’t know about you, but I don’t live where RSS measures what it does measure, but I do live where NCDC and GISS measures and they do measure temperature.

      • The TLT (lower trophosphere) includes altitudes of zero to about 12,500 meters and is most heavily weighted to altitudes of less than 3000 meters.

        BD, unless you live next to a weather station RSS measures temperatures closer to you that NCDC or GISS.

        UAH covers 97-98% of the globe (missing a small circle at each pole), and RSS covers slightly less.

      • PA
        What part of microwaves are not temperature do you not understand?

        And it looks to me like it’s fifty fifty above and below 3000 meters.

        “removing most of the stratospheric influence”

        Means to me that there is some stratospheric influence to the RSS product and since stratospheric cooling is part of the evidence for AGW, their not removing all of it means that the RSS product is bogus for discussing temperatures where humans live.

        http://www.remss.com/measurements/upper-air-temperature

        And why is there such disagreement between RSS and UAH?

        The trends from RSS and UAH are almost opposite from 2001 to 2014.

        http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2001/to:2014/trend/plot/uah/from:2001/to:2014/trend

      • Well, BD you should really write a note to NOAA telling them all their work orbiting advanced microwave radiometers is wasted and that they should go back to guessing at the weather.

        Seriously, measuring a trend is about consistency, precision, and coverage. Three bullseyes for satellites. They match well against balloon data (IE they are measuring what they claim they are measuring).

        GCHN global coverage – number of stations, coverage map:


        Land measurements on the other hand collect some data to 1°C accuracy, have “zombie” stations created by computer, has never been the same network 2 months in a row (probably not even two weeks in a row) with stations moved/added/changed/deleted/missing, all the data is “adjusted” to what personnel think stations ought to have measured, collects data at random times of the day, does anomalous things like extending the land data over the arctic (1200 km), etc. etc.

        Oh, gee you must be right, land measurements are better, because guessing is way better than actually measuring something.

      • @ PA

        Does anyone other than me think it a bit odd that at the beginning of 1998 (precisely) there was an abrupt step upward of around 0.5C in the anomaly graph and that at the end of 1998 (precisely) there was an abrupt step downward of around 0.5C, while during the entire year of 1998, the anomaly profile remained ‘noisily’ flat, pretty much like any other individual year?

        And that if you removed that 0.5C step up/down at the beginning/end of the year, 1998 would have blended in seamlessly with the remainder of the graph and would have been otherwise unremarkable?

    • You have to wonder about their data when you look at their satellite UAH shows a completely different story. The Satallite shows that August dropped from July and is nowhere near 1998. Mixed signals from the agency maybe they should have a food fight next lunch period.

      • You don’t have to wonder about the satellite data.

        RSS is a regional series. Mildly interesting at most. UAH wants to be like it.

      • The satellites sample a lot more of the Earth’s atmosphere than the land/ocean-based instruments. It may not cover everywhere, but it’s a damn sight better than anything else.

      • JCH that is exactly right.

        You really have to wonder about the surface data because it is such a moving target. I have never seen dead data move around so much.

        “You don’t have to wonder about the satellite data.”

    • I think GISS Jan thru August is also around .65C, which is also likely 3rd warmest in their record.

    • Warmest August on record. So much for the pause continuing until the 2030’s. Does this call into question the predictability of the stadium wave?

    • Another zero fact based diatribe
      from Fanboy.

    • Fan, check back in a decade. At that time you will have something much more solid.

  21. Oct 6-17: Nanjing, China

    The issue is not really climate, rather, a long history of Imperial Japanese and the “Rape” of Nanjing during WW II. The Americans, who flew the “hump” over Burma to Chongquig (further up the Yangzte River) are still appreciated with a memorial for those aviators who help stem the Japanese tide into China. Although the American effort was in support of Chiang Kai-shek the Nationalist’s leader, the people of Chongquig still remember Americans fondly.

    A tip of the hat to that period of Chinese history may be appreciated. Not so much if there are Japanese present.

  22. WHTSeptember 18, 2014 at 2:17 AM
    Since this was a national press club event, did any reporter ask her about her crackpot IronSun-like theory of cloud nucleation?

    https://judithcurry.com/2014/09/04/thermodynamics-kinetics-and-microphysics-of-clouds/#comment-624713

    Of course webbly was comment 1 on some stupidly irrelevant rant from sou from who gives a rat’s arse. By all means check out the link. Water molecules are bosons and Bose-Einstein stats apply at normal atmospheric temps.

    The iron sun theory is of course something not even remotely connected with cloud nucleation -http://www.spacedaily.com/news/iron-02a.html – it is as stupidly irrelevant as anything from pig iron headed sou. They don’t find these people they make them in a stupid factory.

    Predictable, incompetent and reprehensible would about describe webbly’s ongoing behavior in this.

    • Taz, Funny how you and your denier “colleagues” go on and on about applying Bose-Einstein statistics to matter in the quantum degenerate limit without understanding the first thing about statistical mechanics.

      • Matthew R Marler

        WebHubTelescope: Taz, Funny how you and your denier “colleagues” go on and on about applying Bose-Einstein statistics to matter in the quantum degenerate limit without understanding the first thing about statistical mechanics.

        That is nonsense. But I think I finally appreciate that you never care whether anything you write is true or false, as long as it is either (a) self-aggrandizing or (b) insulting to another.

        Even though you do not know how increasing CO2 or warming will change the hydrologic cycle, and even though you make elementary errors in statistics and probability, and even though I basically have faint praise for your csalt model (i.e. it hasn’t been tested or disconfirmed by out of sample data), I stipulate that you know more of just about all of physics than I do.

      • Marler, big difference between a statistician and a statistical mechanic. It is you that is the poseur. Had enough with your passive/aggressive insulting style, BTW.

      • ‘The climate system is characterized by a strong external forcing and dissipation, making it a system for which the standard assumptions of equilibrium statistical mechanics do not hold. We therefore have to make use of the techniques developed in non-equilibrium statistical mechanics to describe the statistical properties of the climate system. Many promising advances have been made in this field, although a general mathematical description of non-equilibrium states has not been found yet.’
        http://www.mi.uni-hamburg.de/Statistical.7077.0.html?&L=3

        There is one thing to understand about webbly – he is a poseur with zilch understanding of the climate system. There is so little relevance of statistical mechanics and what little there is he woefully misconstrues. You think he understands physics? I think it is all braggadocio with so little substance and so little relevance.

      • As opposed to aggressive/aggressive? Webbly anger and resentment seeps through unmistakably. Why do we have to put up with this through lax moderation?

        Now that’s a question I have been asking for years.

      • Matthew R Marler

        WebHubTelescope: Had enough with your passive/aggressive insulting style, BTW.

        You know what? Nobody cares.

      • Matthew R Marler

        WebHubTelescope: Pointing out mistakes in basic physics is vindictive?

        You made two false claims about the text, and then dug in your heels and insulted the authors and wrote a bunch of innuendoes. You were just plain wrong.

      • Not really. If this book actually had gone through a decent peer review by actual physicists they would have caught the error and the B-E passage wouldn’t have been included. Any mistakes by the reviewer are irrelevant to the process, unless they turn out to be incorrect. The author usually thanks the reviewer because THEY ARE NOT PAID. Or at best they get an advance copy. But all I had was a window through Google books, and I decided against spending $70 based on the garbage that I read.

        But as is usually the case with a bunch of psychologically-projecting wingers, they frame the argument as an attack on the reviewer.

      • Not really. If this book actually had gone through a decent peer review by actual physicists they would have caught the error and the B-E passage wouldn’t have been included.

        I thought Pekka explained the fallacies in your f00lishness over at theresphysics. So you come over here and start over?

    • ‘Atmospheric and oceanic forcings are strongest at global equilibrium scales of 107 m and seasons to millennia. Fluid mixing and dissipation occur at microscales of 10^−3 m and 10^−3 s, and cloud particulate transformations happen at 10^−6 m or smaller. Observed intrinsic variability is spectrally broad band across all intermediate scales. A full representation for all dynamical degrees of freedom in different quantities and scales is uncomputable even with optimistically foreseeable computer technology. No fundamentally reliable reduction of the size of the AOS dynamical system (i.e., a statistical mechanics analogous to the transition between molecular kinetics and fluid dynamics) is yet envisioned.’ http://www.pnas.org/content/104/21/8709.full

      There is no statistical mechanics of climate. Degenerate matter is also utterly irrelevant.

      ‘Degenerate matter[1][2] in physics is a collection of free, non-interacting particles with a pressure and other physical characteristics determined by quantum mechanical effects. It is the analogue of an ideal gas in classical mechanics. The degenerate state of matter, in the sense of deviant from an ideal gas, arises at extraordinarily high density (in compact stars) or at extremely low temperatures in laboratories.’

      There is nothing to suggest that degenerate matter is a factor. The statistics are calculable at temperatures found in the atmosphere – I do it above. The statistics and the condensate are two separate things. Bose-Einstein condensation – which I suppose is what he refers to as quantum degeneracy – happens at ultra low temperatures. It is utterly irrelevant to cloud nucleation and the derivation of the analytical solution that I am not across. Webbly hasn’t even tried – merely repeated ad nauseum his malign and malicious slander.

      Webbly is both dishonest – an exemplar or bad faith – and utterly and eccentrically off track technically in just about everything. He is also an irredeemable schmuck.

    • All Webby’s ranting about B-E has achived is to convince those of us who weren’t quite sure that he is indeed a self important ass with a vindictive streak a mile wide.

    • The authors are on record that Bose-Einstein statistics were not used in the book:
      “However, we emphasize that these sections 8.2.3 and 8.3.2 with Bose-Einstein statistics are NOT used in any calculations in the book.”,
      and were merely mentioned for completeness.

      So… someone has a reading comprehension problem.

      Criticizing the book for using Bose-Einstein statistics is like saying the author’s theory is wrong because they picked a book jacket color you don’t like.

      • PA speaks mistruths:


        PA | September 20, 2014 at 9:05 am |

        The authors are on record that Bose-Einstein statistics were not used in the book:

        Yet B-E statistics are used in the book and the authors actually crow about it.


        Thus, if in the future, B-E statistics will appear to be valid for nucleation at low T, the first reference will be this book.

        Sounds like they want to do a revisionist history, and claim not to have made a bone-headed mistake of immense proportions? Can’t have it both ways I am afraid.

        No matter what yous say, they can’t walk that one back and rationalize that it was the equivalent of an innocent remark on a blog. This gaffe is for the ages.

      • No matter what yous say, they can’t walk that one back and rationalize that it was the equivalent of an innocent remark on a blog. This gaffe is for the ages.

        It’s actually a perfectly valid speculation. And quite likely to stimulate work in this direction.

        What I wonder is why Webdummy panicked?

        Her idea of applying the full Bose-Einstein statistics treatment on water is so unusual an argument that I panicked and incorrectly blurted out that a water molecule doesn’t have integer spin. In retrospect, I should have said that it was irrelevant.

        (Wayback)

      • AK, in case you didn’t notice, any statements I make on a blog are not PUBLISHED, and I didn’t make the mistake of putting it in print where future atmospheric physicists will chuckle over the assertion. The O-Man and Chief Taz have used the same formulation and we know whut kind of kranks they are, eh?


      • Thus, if in the future, B-E statistics will appear to be valid for nucleation at low T, the first reference will be this book.

        Like I said, someone has a reading comprehension problem.

        The referenced quote posits that B-E statistics may be applied to low temperature nucleation in the future. Since the book wasn’t written in the future B-E statistics weren’t used in the book.

      • Matthew R Marler

        WebHubTelescope: any statements I make on a blog are not PUBLISHED,

        that’s why I encourage you to publish your csalt model. Otherwise, it’s as if it hasn’t even been written.

      • we know whut kind of kranks they are, eh?

        pot: kettle: black.

        BTW, good FOMBS imitation. Birds of a feather…

      • Low temperature is a necessary, but not sufficient condition to use BE statistics. Other conditions have to be satisfied too, and the case for those other conditions is weak, the main one being indistinguishable particles, which fails when so many vibration and rotation states are available at the temperatures being discussed.


      • Matthew R Marler | September 20, 2014 at 12:13 pm |
        that’s why I encourage you to publish your csalt model. Otherwise, it’s as if it hasn’t even been written.

        You are so behind the times. We are working from an open-source model, where the physics research collaboration is done in real time and the checks and balances are done in real time, 24×7

        see http://azimuth.mathforge.org/

      • Not sure what the point of publishing his model would be, everybody knows that if you take a sandbox of data, you can make curves from it, and if you add data to the sandbox, you can make new curves.

      • Jim, what part of the difference between ‘can’t use’ and ‘don’t have to use’ is causing you so much confusion? If there is a place where you can’t use B-E statistics show me where it is on the chart Rob posted.

      • If the particles are distinguishable you use Boltzmann statistics, no matter how cold it is.

      • Jim, where on the chart is it appropriate to use Boltzmann statistics and not B-E statistics for a boson? A simple question. The way I read it there isn’t such a place.

      • steven, it isn’t one-dimensional like that. You have to consider the number of quantum states those bosons have available to them, and for temperatures much above a few K, they have many rotational states and even some vibrational states, each with quantum numbers that can distinguish them, then it is Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics. BE applies only when so few quantum states are available that many particles become identical.

      • Jim. it seems to me that your description gives the case where Boltzmann and BE give the same answer in which case they would both be appropriate. I am looking for that situation where Boltzmann is appropriate and BE is not. It seems you are still stuck in the ‘don’t have to use’ being the same as ‘can’t use’ frame of thought to me and if you could just show me on the chart where that spot is it will help my understanding considerably.

      • lil steven, they screwed up but they won’t admit to it.

        They have to go through hoops of rationalization to even start to defend their decisions on applying B-E statistics in the degenerate regime. And then they put a disclaimer that if they do turn out to be right, they will be the first !

        #comical

      • Webeddy, I read the free sample from the book. It described all three statistical methods in it including how they all merge to give the same answer. Is that not true? They stated under certain conditions you may have to use BE. Is that not true? It had a graph that looked similar to the one Rob posted. Why don’t you tell me where on that graph the Bolzmann statistics will give you the right answer and BE statistics won’t. As far as I can tell the best, as in most biting, critique you could have made was that it seems unlikely that it would ever be required to use BE and not that using BE was wrong. The fact that they included it just seems like a way to make sure to be complete to me.

        Since I have bothered to not ignore you lets go back to our old topic. I asked Dallas why he thought you might be using Fick’s law of diffusion for mixing. You gave a clear description of diffusive mixing which would be fair out of context. The problem is the context was eddy diffusion which is not diffusive mixing. Would you like to try that one again?

      • steven, as I said, the criterion is the number of particles that have identical quantum numbers. It is very hard to get molecules into these degenerate states because they have those extra degrees of freedom that single-particle bosons don’t. For molecules they have to be in a state where they are hardly moving which must be at only a few K, if even that, because it takes very little energy to rotate them with one quantum of angular momentum, and at normal temperatures they have many such states to distribute over.

      • Steven, ” I asked Dallas why he thought you might be using Fick’s law of diffusion for mixing. You gave a clear description of diffusive mixing which would be fair out of context. The problem is the context was eddy diffusion which is not diffusive mixing. Would you like to try that one again?”

        Good luck with that. What webster and Hansen were doing is estimating an “effective” diffusivity. That would vary the different factors that influence the mixing efficiency such as average surface wind velocity changes, regional surface wind velocity changes, sea ice extent, sea ice distribution (as in which pole and which areas), saliniity as well as temperature differentials, basically anything that can influence the THC.

        Remember that webster doesn’t consider ocean heat transport worth bothering with, so he can just approximate the oceans as a block of copper.

      • lil steven said:


        The problem is the context was eddy diffusion which is not diffusive mixing.

        Of course eddy diffusion is diffusive mixing, otherwise they wouldn’t call it diffusion.

        Where do they find these people?

      • It’s turbulent mixing. Now explain how you apply fick’s to turbulent mixing.

      • Jim, you are giving the criteria for when you have to use BE statistics. The question is when you can’t use them. Since at high energy states BE and Boltzmann statistics (and FD for that matter) give the same answer it seems like never is the correct answer. I am still waiting for you to point out to me on the graph where you can’t use BE for a boson.

      • steven, I can only repeat what I said above. The graph is a necessary, but not sufficient condition. You need to also know how many distinguishable states are available, e.g. rotation states. At these kinds of temperatures, and they are talking about near 200 K, those molecules are rotating like heck if they are in a vapor, or at least oscillating a lot if in a fluid because of all the thermal energy, but supercooling to those temperatures without freezing is unlikely. Anyway, there would be so many energy states available, the odds are against two occupying the same state, while application of BE needs those odds to be high in the first place.

      • Jim, you are right. You are only saying the same thing over and over. I don’t know how many times I can say that BE statistics give the same answer as Boltzmann at high energy states before you address that issue.Instead you seem quite determined to state over and over when Boltzmann isn’t appropriate as opposed to when BE isn’t.

      • BE isn’t applicable when the particles can be distinguished in any way.

      • Jim, BE statistics go long after you can start Boltzmann. It just gives the same answer and Boltzmann requires less data input. Just because one equation is more convenient than another doesn’t make the other equation wrong. So it is applicable but it isn’t necessary. Big difference between being extra work and being wrong.

      • The Boltzmann probability ratio between two states does not revert to a B-E form if these states themselves are much higher than kT even if the difference is smaller than kT. You can’t just convert a Boltzmann form with delta E into a B-E form by adding the -1 in the denominator. If you start with B-E and do this ratio, the final result looks like Boltzmann under these high-energy conditions.

      • I’m not sure what your argument is anymore, Jim. But this is what the text book (Judith’s) says about it. Predictions coincide sums it up as far as I’m concerned. But it is late and I am tired, so if I am wrong and it is only that the text and the graphics seem to indicate they give the same answer but they really don’t for some mysterious reason, so be it. I’m done with this one unless you find a reference stating the predictions don’t coincide under high energy conditions.

        As is the case with BE statistics, if (EK-U)>>KT,then 1 in the denominator of (eqn 3.2.37) can be neglected and we obtain the boltzmann distribution.Thus, FD statistics is another generalization of the boltzmann distribution in agreement with the correspondence principle, and all the predictions of all 3 statistics coincide for the case (EK-U)>>KT.

      • steven, I don’t pretend to understand the derivation in the book, but to the extent their formula with delta R is using an energy difference, and then applying the B-E formula to that, it may well be wrong. You can’t do that in physics.

      • Jim, Since this is all new to me I am stuck between taking published literature at it’s word or taking Jim D at his. Which would you pick? Get a reference. Since you know you are right it should be fairly easy to point it out to me in the literature.

      • steven, if someone can tell me whether their delta R is an energy difference between two states (which is what the name makes it sound like), I can say mathematically B-E won’t make sense for this formula. That is where I stand on this.

      • JimD, “steven, if someone can tell me whether their delta R is an energy difference between two states (which is what the name makes it sound like), I can say mathematically B-E won’t make sense for this formula.”

        We are all eyes, type away. It would probably be easier to use something else, like a Raleigh distribution, but if you are trying to extend to Boltzmann distribution to lower temperatures, B-E would provide some continuity. If you just leave the region where Boltzmann doesn’t work alone, we could call it the webster catastrophe zone and maybe put neat little dragon pictures on the graphs. Right now though about 8% of the mid-level clouds are super cooled liquid topped rascals that appear to be a negative feedback.

      • captd, you can do it for yourself. Start with the B-E probability for two different states E1 and E2, both much larger than kT. Take the ratio of these probabilities and you get a formula extremely close to Boltzmann and not at all close to B-E for the term delta E/kT = (E2-E1)/kT. Try for yourself and report back.

      • JimD,

        That is the differential equation for Differential Enthalpy provided WordPress shows it. Someone wanted an equation for differental enthaply, that is what they can up with. It likely match the distribution in their data. The is nothing magical about a Raleigh or a B-E distribution, lots of things in nature share or can be made to share a familiar statistical distribution. You have already been given several other examples of where B-E is used in “analogous” situations. If you can modify the basic equations to fit your data, do it. Since super cooled water doesn’t magically nucleate when you might expect, based on Boltzmann, perhaps a little creativity could be a wonderful thing.

        Creativity btw along with optimism, seems to be in short supply on certain sides of the never ending debate.

      • Jim, all the references I can find state that BE reduces to MB at high temperatures or low density. It’s been a while since I’ve had math classes but from what I remember reducing means part of the equation doesn’t affect the answer and can be eliminated. There are none that state BE is now wrong so switch to MB. If you look at the equations you can see why this is so as you deal with larger and larger numbers in the denominator and are only changing it by 1. You are confusing don’t have to use with can’t use. I have provided a reference. I patiently await your reference showing I’m wrong. That is a strength of written debate after all.

  23. I assume the link to a Hot Whopper article was an attempt to add humor to the post.

    Articles on Hot Whopper are extremely biased, and are indeed “Hot Whoppers”.

    It would not take much editing to turn Hot Whopper articles into “the Onion” style satire.

  24. The big question for Sunday is how many will march in Manhatten? Ten thousand is trivial. A hundred thousand is important,

    • 100,000 is 0.03% of the population of the US. I’m not feelin’ it.

    • Who cares, it’s like a party for these people. Whatever happened to the occupy movement? Nada. I wonder if they will ride their bikes to the event. Not!

    • I bet many will go for FOMO (fear of missing out) – who knows, it could be the next Woodstock

    • Surely it’s really an anti-war protest. What ever happened to those folks?

      • Turns out those folks were right. War was not a solution.

      • War is a precipitate?

      • War isn’t a solution, but neither is peace. It’s a bit of a conundrum.

        Perhaps we in the West need to start fighting wars like our ancestors. Balls to the wall and let God sort em out? No worries about collateral damage or a surgical war. That was the only way one of the Axis powers FINALLY surrendered and it changed the entire culture.

        More and more, it appears that’s what’s needed in the ME.

      • David Springer

        Eric | September 20, 2014 at 5:04 am |

        “Turns out those folks were right. War was not a solution.”

        Depends on what war. US Civil War solved slavery. WWII solved Japanese and German ambitions to take over the world.

      • Georges Clemenceau, put it well.

        “War is a series of catastrophes that results in a victory.”

        Statement to Woodrow Wilson at the Paris Peace Conference (12 January 1919)

        Who pays, who benefits?

      • A fan of *MORE* discourse

        George Turner wonders “What ever happened to those [anti-war] folks?”

        jim2 opines “More and more, it appears that’s [warfighting] what’s needed in the ME.'”

        George Turner and Jim2, in regard to the efficacy of violent methods of conflict resolution, the recent cogent analysis of the military-oriented web-site Duffelblog is commended to your attention:


        Middle Eastern
        Card-Stacking Championship
        Placed On Hold Again

        A variety of unexpected problems [have] made it impractical to stage the contest, including the Egyptian Revolution, the Iranian Revolution, the Iraqi Revolution, the Dhofar Rebellion, the Adwan Rebellion, the Ararat Rebellion, the Dersim Rebellion, World Wars I and II, the Arab-Israeli Wars, the Iran-Iraq War, the Anglo-Iraqi War, the Franco-Syrian War, the Saudi-Yemeni War, the Lebanese Civil War, the Syrian Civil War, the Yemeni Civil Wars, the Suez Crisis, the Siege of Mecca, several intifadas, Operation Ajax, Operation Desert Shield, Operation Desert Storm, Operation Iraqi Freedom, the assassination of King Abdullah I of Jordan, the assassination of Anwar Sadat, the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, the assassination of Rafic Hariri, the assassinations of numerous Iraqi and Iranian prime ministers, the Armenian Genocide, the Assyrian Genocide, several genocides targeting the Kurds and Yazidis, the Semele Massacre, the Hama Massacre, the Mecca Massacre, the bombing of the King David Hotel, the bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut, a combined total of over 14 coups d’etat, and inclement weather, among other causes.

        “Stacking playing cards can be done with as few as two cards,” says one volunteer card-stacking teacher who would only identify himself as “Idra” for fear of being construed as conducting a political activity and suffering reprisals by Hamas, Israeli settlers, the Shabiha, ISIS, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda and its affiliates, the Israeli Army, the Mossad, both the Syrian Army and the Free Syrian Army, the CIA, MI6, the Iranian Army, the mukhabarat of every country previously named plus Jordan, both the secret and non-secret Egyptian police, and western drone strikes.

        Moments after Idra completed the most basic two card tower, a sheaf of threatening letters was forced through the door’s mail slot from — among others — politicians seeking bribes in exchange for overlooking construction of an unauthorized card tower, fundamentalists furious over the use of cards that can be used to gamble, and the mafia which controls all local gambling.

        In spite of the letters, Idra is optimistic. “I think we are making good progress. Compared to when I first began, more and more of the threatening letters do not even mention stacking playing cards.”

        However, there was no time to read the other thirty-eight threatening letters to confirm this, as the wall of the house was suddenly blasted in by a vehicle-borne IED parked outside, the roof was caved in by a government artillery strike, and the remaining walls were crushed by a passing Israeli armored bulldozer, leaving only the mailbox standing.

        The mailbox collapsed soon afterwards following a moderately strong breeze, apparently due to the use of library paste rather than nails by the contractor, a relative of a local official.

        *THESE* realities of violent conflict-resolution methods are evident to *EVERYONE*, eh Climate Etc readers?

        \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • FOMBS – without all those wars, that would have left all the religious fanatic militants in the East to turn their total attention on the destruction of the West. Those wars could be a blessing in disguise. You just don’t know.

    • Another zero fact based diatribe
      from Fanboy.

  25. It’s taken nearly a decade to get design approval for Nuclear power plant though the US Nuclear ‘Rejection‘ Commission. It is any wonder nuclear is many times more expensive than it should be?

    Large new reactor design gets approval in USA

    GE Hitachi’s 1600 MWe Economic Simplified BWR (ESBWR) has been awarded design certification by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission nearly a decade after first application. It leverages proven technologies from the GE Hitachi Advanced BWR, which has been operating in Japan since mid 1990s, but simplifies the design and utilizes passive safety features and natural circulation principles for decay heat removal. It has lower building costs than the ABWR due to modular construction, lower operating costs, 24-month refueling cycle, and a 60-year life. There are plans to build it in USA and in India. It is the fourth large reactor design to gain generic NRC approval since new procedures in the early 1990s.
    WNN 17/9/14.

    • Good point, that. Imagine all the much better designs on the table now.

      • I am big fan of an MSR (molten salt reactor) using the brayton cycle.

        Most articles critical of MSR are nonsense. For example:
        http://daryanenergyblog.wordpress.com/ca/part-8-msr-lftr/8-9-the-brayton-cycle-and-msr-reactors/

        An MSR should have an inert gas secondary loop that drives Brayton cycle turbines, the tertiary cooling loop could drive Rankine cycle steam turbines.

        The MSR eliminates a number of problems. The used fuel pellets from current reactors (after processing to convert the uranium oxide to uranium tetrafluoride) could just be dumped in the molten salt. Since the reactor isn’t pressurized not much happens in case of a accident or a leak (you just scrap off the hardened salt and throw it back in).

      • Jim2,

        I agree. Just imagine if we leveled the playing field for all energy – removed the subsidies and removed the unjustified irrational impediments on many technologies, but most notably nuclear energy.

        The impediments stopping the world from having low cost nuclear power and retarding progress are many. The licencing costs and delays through Nuclear ‘Rejection’ Commission is one. But there are many others. Imagine the effect on public opinion, on the actual cost of accidents like Fukushima, and on the ability of the anti-nukes to continue to have such success with their doomsayer propaganda if the allowable radiation limits were raised to ‘as high a relatively safe’ (AHARS) as justified based on scientific evidence, rather than being set ‘as low as reasonably achievable’ (ALARA) as they are now. They could be raised, in steps over time, by a factor of 10 to 100 compared with what they are now. http://home.comcast.net/~robert.hargraves/public_html/RadiationSafety26SixPage.pdf

        See this excellent video by retired Oxford Professor Wade Allison:

        If we removed the impediments on nuclear power the cost of electricity from Small Modular r\Reactors (SMR) could decrease at a rate of 10% per doubling of capacity. That’s a moderate learning rate. At that rate, starting with first completion in 2022 and at a 2 year capacity doubling rate, LCOE of SMR’s would be cheaper than electricity from coal in Australia before 2030 and half the cost of coal by 2045 (coal generation is cheap in Australia). At that rate no one would consider coal and the world would be much wealthier and get all the benefits that brings.

        The CAGW alarmists should redirect their advocacy skills to getting John Holdren and the rest of Obama’s advisers to stop trying to regulate to make coal generation prohibitively expensive and, instead, focus on removing the impediments to nuclear power.

      • Still beating the dead nuclear horse?

      • We need to revive the nuclear horse and then ride it. Humans are all about creating order out of chaos, anti- entropy machines, and to exist we need ever more power. Fortunately, the gradients are there to be exploited, but the biggest impediment is the demon haunted inner world in which so many people live.

      • Planting MSR facilities like weeds would do more than any other “green” initiative.

        Wind and solar all cause more emissions to produce the facility than a nuclear power plant. 2000 MW of wind (a typical nuclear plant) which operates at 25% of capacity (8000 MW nameplate rating), requires 800,000 tons of mostly stainless steel (100 tons per megawatt) and 2250 tons of rare earth metals. It is an environmental disaster particularly if you live in China.

        Green advocates do not like getting into honest discussions of the environment impacts of production and deployment of wind and solar since that would require honesty and a discussion.

      • PA – wind and solar all cause more emissions….

        True. Wind and solar require ready-to-use back-up power, usually coal or natural gas. The back-up plants are not run at full efficiency, so more carbon is emitted. This was the case in Denmark, where a concerted effort to use renewables did not reduce carbon emissions. My understanding is that this is a result of the efficiency of a heat engine, that is equal to (1 – TempLow/TempHigh). To be efficient, the plants need to run as hot as possible for as long as possible, not cycled on and off to accommodate intermittent wind and solar plants. Please correct me if I am wrong.

        Justin

      • Justin,

        On of the best recent studies is “Quantifying the CO2 savings from wind power”: http://docs.wind-watch.org/Wheatley-Ireland-CO2.pdf
        It’s an excellent empirical study of EirGrid, the all Ireland grid. It shows that wind power was about 53% effective at reducing emissions for every 1 MWh wind generation. (This is at 17% of electricity generated by wind for the year 2011.) On that basis, the CO2 abatement cost with wind is about 2x what is claimed.

    • I am in favor of the GE reactor.

      Not a huge fan of ALARA, all depends on what one thinks is reasonable, yours may be much different than mine, but do keep exposure with current limits, raising the limits to 500 Rem per year, or 5 Sieverts per year is koo koo for cocoa puffs.

      So now we have 4 approved large reactor designs for the US, looks to me like regulatory approval is no longer an impediment, maybe the real issue is capitol investment and construction lead time.

      • bob droege,

        Not a huge fan of ALARA, all depends on what one thinks is reasonable, yours may be much different than mine, but do keep exposure with current limits,

        What the links I gave are arguing for, are for ALARA and LNT to be dumped and replaced with AHARS. What do you mean by “keep exposure withing limits”? What limits? Reasonable limits based on the best available scientific evidence, or limits based on scaremongering and superstition? If you support the latter you are assisting to make nuclear far more expensive than it could and should be, and indirectly causing over 1 million avoidable fatalities per year. That is the consequence of the irrational, unjustified limits based on ALARA.

        So now we have 4 approved large reactor designs for the US, looks to me like regulatory approval is no longer an impediment, maybe the real issue is capitol investment and construction lead time.

        One leads to the other. We have not resolved the licensing delay issue. The development doesn’t stop at gaining licenses for four old designs. The 43 small modular reactor designs cannot proceed because it costs far too much to get them through licencing. The financial risk is far too high. So the licencing issue needs to be sorted out.

        I agree with you “the real issue is capitol investment and construction lead time”. This is in part a consequence of the licencing and designs, and unjustified excessive safety requirements. The licencing process is preventing development and competition and moving to smaller units.

        Furthermore, according to Allison, half the cost of electricity from nuclear plants can be attributed to safety requirements. This is ridiculous given that it is preventing the world from having far safer electricity than what they have now.

    • Peter, can we build one of those in Brazzaville?

      • Too big for the local grid. Need Small Modular Reactors. Tell Obama to remove the US blocks to progress. Tell Hon Holdren too. Better still, tell Obama to sack Holdren and appoint an Energy adviser that has a balanced understanding or energy requirements, rather than one who shares Holdren’s life-long fear and loathing of nuclear power.

    • Peaking power is required every day and is typically provided by gas powered plants that can cycle up and down relatively easily. Theoretically wind or solar could be used for this if available – and should taken up preferentially as the marginal (mainly fuel) costs are minimal. There should not be a problem with this if the market is not distorted by subsidies. If they can make it work without subsidies I certainly have no problem, Say very cheap panels (when available) to power office air conditioning – for instance.

      In the US the levelised costs of generation by gas is cheaper by far – so the question doesn’t arise.

    • “Renewables or nuclear electricity for Australia – the costs”
      http://oznucforum.customer.netspace.net.au/TP4PLang.pdf

  26. The WSJ piece by Steve Koonins is excellent. A true scientist. I loved it.
    But it only really covers part of the climate change problem, the define the problem part. The what do we do about it part is much more complicated. That is why climate change is such a wicked problem.

    • Willard,

      Great article! It was probably the first article I have ever read about chess and it was engrossing! One of the cool things about ClimateEtc is the exposure to lots of interesting ideas, events, and issues. Smart, skeptical people can be very interesting.

      Justin

  27. Koonins certainly checks off all the talking points of the one side. Didn’t see anything new there.

    • >Didn’t see anything new there

      You don’t need to. Just refute his points with empirical evidence … that will do it

    • nottawa rafter

      Jim D
      Maybe nothing new but little by little with each such piece from a credible source the edifice of a consensus crumbles. It is the cumulative effect that should worry you. As the observational data mounts new voices will come forward. I sense a momentum and it is not in your favor.

    • Koonins does seem to realize that scientists have to be honest about the uncertainty. Coming from someone like him, it means a lot. That is something of a new development, or at least another step in the right direction.

      Scientists have lost credibility by asserting with certainty that this or that catastrophe will happen, then it doesn’t. Or just this or that event, like the Arctic death spiral, which probably wouldn’t be a catastrophe of any sort, will happen; then it doesn’t.

      If scientists stick to the knowns, their credibility will return. If they don’t, people will ridicule them and ignore their advice.

      • I think this is big stuff. This is a man emerged from the belly of the beast, Obama’s administration and BP renewables. Apparently he has a lot of credibility and is in a venue with a lot of credibility, the APS. That he would indicate that the science is not settled and that the models are inadequate for policy work is stunning.

        I think I’m gonna go check up on Noah. There’s lots of metaphors in the deep, blue, sea.
        ============

      • > scientists have to be honest about the uncertainty

        Indeed, scientists ought to admit that nobody knows the future and that the future is uncertain. Except perhaps the Google, who lives in the future.

        By chance Mr. T is there to make scientists walk the line.

      • Who is Mr. T?

        It is highly likely :) that the giant plume of oil from the BP leak was consumed by microbes. What a catastrophe for the Luddites! It was hard, but not impossible, to get that bird soaked in oil photo. Maybe they used a file photo. Nowadays, to get a good dead bird photo you have to trudge about on some noisy wind mega farm where you can see lots of shredded eagles and bats, if you don’t get arrested for trespassing.

        Justin

      • Think of it, we wouldn’t get all those shredded eagle pics if we hadn’t “banned” DDT.

        And is there a correlation between sea level and ice free conditions in the Arctic?

    • Koonin raises three questions. Is climate changing? Are humans influencing the planet? How will the climate change over the next century under both natural and human influences?

      The first two are yes-no questions. The last one is a how question. This question conceals a yes-no question: will AGW be bad?

      To see the effect of that concealment, let’s go back in 2010:

      Is there a spill at Deepwater Horizons? Are humans influencing that spill? How will that spill and other natural factors change the Gulf of Mexico over the next century?

      Mr. T ought to have taken care of the spill.

    • Jim D > Koonins certainly checks off all the talking points of the one side. Didn’t see anything new there.

      Yes, the “side” of truth. Anathema to those more accustomed to bending science to politics.

  28. Thanks for the editorial from Koonin. It will be interesting to see who attacks him and the degree of ferocity.

    • usually he is among the watchdog, so I interpret his position as “IPCC is dead”

    • It will be interesting to see who attacks him and the degree of ferocity.

      As of this moment, not Joe Romm. And it’s been 35 hours. “Climate Science Rapid Response?”

      • David Atkins, @ the Political Animal blog of Washington Monthly calls the Koonin editorial an ‘obfuscatory piece’. The commenters have their hate faces on. Hee, hee, hee.
        =================

      • Atkins:

        As with much of the evolution of the conservative “debate” over climate, it represents another move in the shifting ground of conservative chicanery intended to paralyze action to solve the problem.

        […]

        His position is that because we don’t fully understand all of the complex reverberating effects of climate change, we can’t make good climate policy yet.

        Koonin:

        The idea that “Climate science is settled” runs through today’s popular and policy discussions. Unfortunately, that claim is misguided. It has not only distorted our public and policy debates on issues related to energy, greenhouse-gas emissions and the environment. But it also has inhibited the scientific and policy discussions that we need to have about our climate future.

        […]

        The crucial scientific question for policy isn’t whether the climate is changing. That is a settled matter: The climate has always changed and always will.

        […]

        Nor is the crucial question whether humans are influencing the climate […] The impact today of human activity appears to be comparable to the intrinsic, natural variability of the climate system itself.

        […]

        Policy makers and the public may wish for the comfort of certainty in their climate science. But I fear that rigidly promulgating the idea that climate science is “settled” (or is a “hoax”) demeans and chills the scientific enterprise, retarding its progress in these important matters. Uncertainty is a prime mover and motivator of science and must be faced head-on. It should not be confined to hushed sidebar conversations at academic conferences.

        […]

        Society’s choices in the years ahead will necessarily be based on uncertain knowledge of future climates. That uncertainty need not be an excuse for inaction. There is well-justified prudence in accelerating the development of low-emissions technologies and in cost-effective energy-efficiency measures.

        But climate strategies beyond such “no regrets” efforts carry costs, risks and questions of effectiveness, so nonscientific factors inevitably enter the decision.

        […]

        Individuals and countries can legitimately disagree about these matters, so the discussion should not be about “believing” or “denying” the science. Despite the statements of numerous scientific societies, the scientific community cannot claim any special expertise in addressing issues related to humanity’s deepest goals and values. The political and diplomatic spheres are best suited to debating and resolving such questions, and misrepresenting the current state of climate science does nothing to advance that effort.

        “Obfuscatory”? For Atkins perhaps. The actual message:   don’t blame science for you policy agenda! (IMO.)

      • Forgot to say: all bolding mine.

  29. Dr. Curry,
    I’m getting addicted to your Week in Review feature. What a wonderfully eclectic mix of links. Thanks especially for Steve Koonins’ piece, replete with the kind of nuanced analysis I like to believe created my skeptical position on CAGW. Mark Steyn’s tomfoolery puncturing Dr. Mann’s self promotion on Twitter provided plenty of guilty pleasure for my reptile brain. But, thanks especially for leaving the best to last, a link to a Sewage overflow, where you were roundly castigated. It was an act of true altruism to send a few of your multitude of readers to her bilious Sad Sack site. I’ve often said we are defined by those we hate almost as much as by those we love. I suspect the corollary of that, i.e. who hates and loves us, are almost as relevant to that definition. P.S. WHT please stop slumming and get back to your rightful place here, you’re an important part of the balance I value at this site.

  30. #climatemarch Timed for the March this Sunday, announcing a breakthrough in making accurate El Nino predictions – http://t.co/xZOZCVa7lF— WHUT (@WHUT) September 19, 2014

  31. Is there a link between warming data and climate conferences? this seems to be the third time that we have warmer months near a conference although it might have been on different data sets.the sea ice extent was headed back to median a couple of years ago and then was conveniently hijacked.

  32. Thanks, Judith. I missed many of those in my browsing. And thanks for posting your schedule of speaking engagements.

    Cheers.

  33. John Smith (it's my real name)

    love this blog site
    can’t stay away – so many informative comments

    what the heck is up with the bizarre vilification of mild mannered scientist Judith Curry?

    she indicates in her press club talk that it began after Katrina as a result of her Hurricane paper …?

    whose kitten did she run over?

    can anyone provide a couple more details about how this witch trial stuff started
    thanks

    (I know Mann and Gavin take a lot of heat, but they make really strong pronouncements the would naturally draw fire, plus lawsuits and refusal to debate – JC’s only crime as far as I can tell is saying “not enough good data – we don’t know”)

    • A fan of *MORE* discourse

      John Smith (it’s my real name) opines  “JC’s only crime as far as I can tell is saying ‘not enough good data – we don’t know'”

      History shows us plainly that depending on the circumstance, the assertion ‘not enough good data – we don’t know’ can amount to:

      • a valid scientific opinion

      a gross scientific error

      organized racketeering

      an agency of mass casuality

      Observation I  The Marshall Institute web-sites links (at the bottom) to other web sites that do not enjoy a good reputation within the scientific community (e.g., “Energy Insider”, “Energy Facts”, “Fuel-Fix”).

      Observation II  Every element of Judith Curry’s “uncertainty monster” is comparably likely to make AGW worse than IPCC projections, as to make AGW better. Yet this even-handedness is invisible in Judith Curry’s slides. Ouch!

      Conclusion  Judith Curry’s own scientific reputation is unlikely to be elevated by Judith’s associating her name to institutions whose scientific reputation, technological assessments, astro-turfing track record, and predilection for one-sided analysis all are dubious (to say the least).

      Be careful, Judith Curry!

      \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • Matthew R Marler

        a fan of *MORE* discourse: History shows us plainly that depending on the circumstance, the assertion ‘not enough good data – we don’t know’ can amount to:

        • a valid scientific opinion

        As it is in Prof Curry’s case. Beyond any reasonable doubt.

        Observation I The Marshall Institute web-sites links (at the bottom) to other web sites that do not enjoy a good reputation within the scientific community (e.g., “Energy Insider”, “Energy Facts”, “Fuel-Fix”).

        Observation II Every element of Judith Curry’s “uncertainty monster” is comparably likely to make AGW worse than IPCC projections, as to make AGW better. Yet this even-handedness is invisible in Judith Curry’s slides. Ouch!

        I. If Marshall has the good sense to invite Prof Curry, but Prof Mann and Dr Schmidt vilify her, then why do you care that Prof Mann and Dr Schmidt and others do not respect the Marshall Institute? This is as stupid a mode of “reasoning” as inferring false motives to someone who joined the NAACP or the anti-VietNam War movement because a few of their other members were communists. Prof Curry’s talk hews more closely to the science than the catastrophism of the Union of Concerned Scientists. If the Marshall Institute respects her and the UCS doesn’t, then it is the UCS who ought to lose credibility, not the Marshall Institute.

        II. You can not back that up with evidence. In particular, the unknown changes in the hydrological cycle more likely support the idea that temperature change will be less than forecast by the IPCC. In addition to that, their actual forecasting record is overpredicting the temperature increase, not underpredicting it.

        The most discouraging aspects of this debate are the loose language, loose reasoning, and willful disparagement of evidence and dissent by the people supporting AGW catastrophism.

        What’s the best summary of evidence to date?

        1. Warming from 1850 to 2014 has had neutral to beneficial consequences.

        2. Nothing bad (tornadoes, droughts, floods, hurricanes, sea level rise, the epizootic that decimated the stands of American chestnuts, the distemper epizootics in seals and African lions) has been consistently related to CO2 increase.

        3. No quantitative model that fits recent data predicts catastrophic warming over the rest of the century.

        4. Increased warming will increase evaporation and precipitation rates.

        5. Increased evaporation and precipitation rates are not likely to produce decreased cloud cover; other than that, net H2O feedbacks are unknown.

        6. Continued increases in fossil fuel use are unlikely to result in a doubling of CO2 concentration from its present value of ca. 400 ppm.

        I look forward to reports of the results of careful studies addressing these and other reports. Worshipful expressions of faith in the Idols of the Tribe and the Idols of the Marketplace, not so much.

      • A fan of *MORE* discourse

        FOMD’s Cost-Accounting Exercise

        Step 1  Assign a number 1\gt f\gt 0 as the fraction of the the motivation for the Gulf War/Iraq/Afghanistan conflict associated to protecting Carbon-Energy interests.

        Step 2  Compute f\times\text{6,000,000,000,000}. This is the cost to date to the United States (in dollars) of the national carbon-energy addiction.

        Step 3  Compute f\times\text{4,487 dead and 32,226 wounded}. This is the cost to date to the United States (in hero’s blood) of the national carbon-energy addiction.

        Conclusion  The costs of carbon energy already are far more than the United States can reasonably afford. And the costs of rising seas, stronger storms, and more frequent droughts are only beginning to be accounted.

        *THESE* carbon-energy truths are evident to *EVERYONE*, eh Climate Etc readers?

        \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • A fan of *MORE* discourse

        Erratum Step 1 should read:

        Step 1  Assign a number 0\lt f\lt q as the fraction of the the motivation for the Gulf War/Iraq/Afghanistan conflict associated to protecting Carbon-Energy interests.

        That the fraction f is substantially greater than zero is evident to *EVERYONE*, eh Climate Etc readers?

        \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • A fan of *MORE* discourse

        Well heck! Try this equation-formatting:

        Step 1  Assign a number 0<f<1 as the fraction of the the motivation for the Gulf War/Iraq/Afghanistan conflict associated to protecting Carbon-Energy interests.

        Hopefully, the third time’s the charm!

        \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • ‘Observation I The Marshall Institute web-sites links (at the bottom) to other web sites that do not enjoy a good reputation within the scientific community (e.g., “Energy Insider”, “Energy Facts”, “Fuel-Fix”).’

        The link to “Energy Insider” is a link to the National Journal’s energy page and an article by Okeefe the Marshall institute the CEO.

        The NJ looks like a policy journal not hard science – I guess if your scientists were rabid environmental activists they wouldn’t like it.

        But the solution for rabid environment activists is simple – the condition is treatable at the doctors office – and they prefer you bring the animal that bit you if possible.

    • John Smith

      The motto of the Royal Society roughly translates from the latin as ‘Nobodys word is final’

      https://royalsociety.org/about-us/history/

      Scientists should question the status quo but that principle seems to have been set aside when it comes to climate, a young and brash branch of the sciences that thinks it is uniquely qualified to believe the science is settled.

      In reality we have little idea of what makes the climate tick. Rumsfeld’s words could have been written to accentuate how little we know

      ‘There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns.’

      I have likened climate to a 5000 piece jigsaw of which most pieces are missing and we have no picture on the box to illustrate what we should be building.

      The uncertainty and plain don’t knows I have been pointing out are all very well. As just one example; ‘How we can know an average global sea surface temperature back to 1850 when so much of the world was unexplored let alone its oceans measured’ should be just one example that should make scientists question whether the models they build are actually using reliable data, or whether they think they already know the answer and therefore just use data that supports it, no matter its doubtful provenance.

      These sort of questions can be safely ignored coming from someone like me, but when a bona fide climate scientist such as Judith- who has always been firmly on the consensus side- suddenly starts expressing doubt then such dissent must be squashed as it can’t be ignored..

      There are a small number of climate science activists and a much larger number of non scientific environmental activists who have the ear of governments and who push the warming agenda. I heard both at arecent climate conference I attended at Exeter recently.

      When we enter the realm of politics other factors come into play. Combined, these forces are powerful and unforgiving.

      Judith was very brave to speak out and is perhaps now realising what sceptics have had to put up with, most, but not all, of whom merely want to get to the truth, wherever it lies.

      That the climate was highly variable in the past appears to be ignored. The paleo proxy reconstructions such as the Hockey stick (which uses various proxies) are inadequate representations of the past and miss out on annual and decadal variability. Anyway, why on earth should a tree ring from a tree with a short growing season and its own micro climate be a worthwhile thermometer. However this has become an icon which in its various forms has acquired almost religious significance to believers.

      I don’t know where Judith’s journey will end and I suspect she still believes that co2 is the dominant factor, whereas I and others believe it is important at low concentrations but is overwhelmed by natural variability..

      However, it is an interesting journey but one on which those not supporting the consensus will have a rocky ride. If its any consolation to her she is at least upholding the scientific principle made 350 years ago by the Royal Society which seems to have become rather unfashionable

      tonyb

      • tonyb
        Thanks for the lucid discussion. John Smith, Discover magazine hosted a discussion set of papers from Mann and Judith Curry. Mann name calling in the article was disturbing but the restrained logic from Judy convincing. The CAGW then had to drown out her voice with loud accusations.
        Dr Koonon and APS policy review are extremely important.
        Scott

      • A fan of *MORE* discourse

        TonyB asserts [contrary to evidence and reason] “In reality we have  little idea  in-depth appreciation of what makes the climate tick. […] That the climate was highly variable in the past appears to be  ignored   thoroughly investigated.”

        Assertions by TonyB, corrections by FOMD.

        In further news, the George C. Marshall Institute has just hired a new executive director (John B Sheldon) who apparently has *NO* formal training in *ANY* STEM discipline.

        Observation  The STEM-literacy, mathematical maturity, and reasoning capacity of climate-change skepticism/denialism is decreasing year-by-year.

        Why is this? The world wonders.

        \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • Matthew R Marler

        a fan of *MORE* discourse: In further news, the George C. Marshall Institute has just hired a new executive director (John B Sheldon) who apparently has *NO* formal training in *ANY* STEM discipline.

        That’s as empty as pointing out that Al Gore has no formal training in any stem discipline. John Holdren and Paul Ehrlich do have formal training in STEM, and their policy recommendations are always wrong. In this debate, merely toting up the college degrees does not get us far in evaluating the scientific evidence or the policy recommendations.

      • Fan

        you seem to have forgotten the link you yourself posted which demonstrated that borehole temperatures had been rising for 300 years and superimposed on it was a graphic from you showing the highly variable temperature so what’s your po9nt?

        I replied to your original borehole graph here

        https://judithcurry.com/2014/09/11/fraudulent-hockey-stick/#comment-627276

        tonyb

      • A fan of *MORE* discourse

        TonyB asks “What’s your point?”

        The point  Among scientists who study climate-change “hockey-sticks”, historical records of land-temperature carry relatively little weight (compared to boreholes, limnology, isotope ratios, tree-rings, etc.) for the following objective reasons:

        (1) the heat capacity of the air is low compared to the heat-capacity of the seas (giving more weight to aquatic and borehole measures), and because

        (2) daily, hourly, and even minute-by-minute fluctuations in air-temperature are far larger than than climate-change effects (again giving more weight to aquatic and borehole measures), and because

        (3) the historical temperature-record lacks global spatial coverage (giving more weight to ocean-sediment and borehole measures), and

        (4) the historical temperature-record has relatively poor calibration (giving more weight to isotopic and borehole measures), and

        (5) much of the historical temperature-record is anecdotal rather than quantitative (regarding which ships-logs, etc., are seldom as rigorous as scientists would like).

        Conclusion  TonyB, although everyone appreciates and respects your passion and diligence in regard to the historical climate-record, passion and diligence are *NOT* sufficient to remediate these deficiencies.

        \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • Fan

        You post this in response to my reproducing your own link to borehole data showing that temperatures have been rising for over 300 years. As I continually point out, both Giss and Hadley are merely staging posts for a warming climate NOT the starting post;

        ‘The point Among scientists who study climate-change “hockey-sticks”, historical records of land-temperature carry relatively little weight (compared to boreholes, limnology, isotope ratios, tree-rings, etc.) for the following objective reasons:’

        So Mosh has obviously been wasting his time. The Met Office might as well archive their records. Hansen’s Giss is made obsolete. What an extraordinary thing for you to say. Novel proxies trump instrumental records.

        Lets home on in tree rings. These have samples typically taken at the beginning and end of a short growing season. They are highly susceptible to their micro climate. They give a 50 year smoothed signal that completely misses the ups and downs of annual and decadal variability.

        Perhaps you would link to an explanatory paper to explain exactly why it is you think that tree rings make such great global thermometers accurate to tenths of a degree?

        Then you can tell me why we have been warming for 300 years and whilst you are about it the reason for the significant cooling prior to that and the hundreds of years long warming prior to THAT?

        tonyb

      • “The point Among scientists who study climate-change “hockey-sticks”, historical records of land-temperature carry relatively little weight (compared to boreholes, limnology, isotope ratios, tree-rings, etc.) for the following objective reasons:”

        Actually the point is that comparing proxies, which represent attenuated and averaged temperature signal to modern surface temperature data is just invalid. You can compare proxy data from the past to similar data from the present. The tree rings for example don’t show that modern temperatures, post 1960 are unusual.

        If you want compare modern temperatures to borehole temperatures you need to dig a 100 foot deep hole, drop in some instrumentation with low thermal conductivity wires in the hole, fill the hole back in and collect your data. You would be 100 years to late to catch the 20th century warming but data could be collected for most of the 21st century.

      • John Smith (it's my real name)

        tonyb
        your comments (and your article I read here on CE)
        are among the most persuasive to me
        anecdotal?
        please see my comment to FOMD below
        thank you

    • John, Judith has made accusations against the scientific mainstream that they only appear so certain, not because of the scientific evidence, but through group-think and peer pressure. Some don’t take kindly to that. Her accusations may seem subtle to you, but they are attacking the scientific integrity of the majority, so you can see that some of them respond in kind.

      • Yes by all means get out the 30-1 spray!

      • The 1 is accusing the 30 of being dishonest.

      • The 1 is right.

      • John Smith (it's my real name)

        Jim D
        thanks
        it seems to me that science is often moved forward by one dissenting voice
        I don’t quite hear JC questioning their integrity, just their evidence and methods
        (except in that “hide the decline” thing where integrity, I think, was a serious issue)
        For Mann and GS, extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence

        I don’t think the response is in kind
        perhaps we are all now rendered myopic by our politics

        FOMD
        I’m not yet convinced that select proxy evidence is that less anecdotal than other evidence
        “anecdotal” I hate that word, it was invented by technocrats :)

        Still curious about what went on with Dr. Curry’s hurricane paper, isn’t that where the trouble started? She mentions something about getting burned by a journalist

        tonyb, JimD, PA, Scott (even FOMD)
        you guys are fierce
        man, can’t tell ‘ya how much I enjoy reading this crazy sh*t

        also, very liberal friend mentioned Koonen WSJ piece, her opinion was changed by it, could be a turning point

      • John Smith, you can also take the warming rate since 1950 as an example. Judith is effectively saying that just because it agrees with the consensus transient sensitivity doesn’t mean the consensus is correct, and not only that, she asserts they can’t be correct, and bases this on the “pause” that came after a steep step in 1998. It’s not only models, but decades of warming data that support the consensus, but they have people believing it is just models, and only want to talk about the last 15 years of data.

      • John Smith (it's my real name)

        JimD
        I appreciate this point
        Its seems like failure of the models does count just as matter of scientific debate (especially since the predictions called for extreme changes)
        but I hear what you’re saying and will consider your point as I gradually learn more about this issue
        well stated, even though it lacked bold typeface for emphasis :)

    • Anyone who challenges the orthodoxy must be silenced. If they can’t muzzle her, the they will discredit her. It’s Saul Alinsky’s “Rules for Radicals” in action.

  34. There’s been a humorous new development in the consensus debate this week. Yesterday, Skeptical Science strongly condemned describing the results of their study as:

    There’s a 97% consensus supporting the AGW theory, and 1.6% put the human contribution at >50%.

    Even though Dana Nuccitelli, the guy who created the scale used in the paper, said:

    The way I see the final paper is that we’ll conclude ‘There’s an x% consensus supporting the AGW theory, and y% explicitly put the human contribution at >50%’.

    It turns out skeptic criticism of the paper is exactly in line with what the person who designed the measuring system said about it. The only people who disagree with Nuccitelli’s vision for the measuring system are… Nuccitelli and his friends.

    It’s surreal.

    http://hiizuru.wordpress.com/2014/09/19/surreal/

    • > Yesterday, Skeptical Science strongly condemned […]

      Brandon can’t even provide the link.

      Hyperreal.

      • willard, this is a stupid response given the link is in the post I wrote about this topic. Sure, I could have remembered to add the link in this comment too, but the fact someone doesn’t provide a link every time they talk about something in no way implies they “can’t even provide the link.”

        The normal response for someone quoting something without a clear reference is to say something like, “What’s your source for this?”

      • > Sure, I could have remembered to add the link in this comment too.

        Of course Brandon could have. And AK and Don Don would have thanked him instead of thanking me.

        It was not a question, BTW.

        Brandon does that all the time.

    • I think maybe I should upgrade my notion that SKS is a false-flag operation from “speculation” to “theory”. Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t they get burned before with unsecured data? Data of some sort anyway?

      It’s almost like they deliberately left it out there to be found…

      • The truth is out there, AK.

        Reading that discussion suffices to show that Brandon’s lulz may not be warranted:

        I’m not sold on Dana’s idea that any paper that endorses the IPCC automatically explicitly quantifies AGW as >50%. The whole point of “explicit endorsement” is they need to explicitly say it. Endorsing the IPCC is implicit endorsement of AGW, not explicit endorsement of AGW and not explicit quantification of AGW.

        http://www.hi-izuru.org/forum/The%20Consensus%20Project/2012-01-24-Defining%20the%20scientific%20consensus.html

        Brandon, an IT guy, has not even sanitized the emails and the IPs.

        Hyperreal.

      • AK, I don’t think these guys are competent enough for that. I’d like to, because it is depressing a group so ridiculously incompetent can have such an influence on the world, but foolish optimism is a bad thing.

        I think we have to be realistic here. These guys are just that bad.

      • Thanks for the link, willy:

        “dana1981
        Dana Nuccitelli
        dana1981@yahoo…
        69.230.102.70

        There aren’t a lot that specifically quantify AGW, but there are a good number that essentially endorse the IPCC report, which is equivalent to endorsing AGW as greater than 50%.

        I just really want to avoid the assumption that if a paper says ‘humans are causing global warming’, for example, that they’re saying humans are causing the majority of the warming. Maybe they are, maybe they aren’t. If we assume they are, we’ll get busted. So if your consensus is ‘humans are causing most of the observed warming’, then you need the papers that don’t somehow quantify the effect in a different category, because you then have to add an assumption in order to get an endorsement for your consensus definition.

        But like I said, you don’t have to be totally literal and only accept if they quantify it. For example, endorsing the IPCC is a consensus endorsement.”

      • Thank you for the link Willard…

        I just really want to avoid the assumption that if a paper says ‘humans are causing global warming’, for example, that they’re saying humans are causing the majority of the warming. Maybe they are, maybe they aren’t. If we assume they are, we’ll get busted.

        (dana1981 2012-01-24 16:29:47)

      • > I just really want to avoid the assumption that if a paper says ‘humans are causing global warming’, for example, that they’re saying humans are causing the majority of the warming. Maybe they are, maybe they aren’t. **If we assume they are, we’ll get busted.**

        Which is exactly what Will makes Russ assumed:

        Because while Categories 2 and 3 don’t directly quantify the human contribution, they do endorse the idea it is >50%.

        http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?p=7&t=348&&n=1994#106735

        Or how to force a quantification where there is none.

        Incidentally, Tom refers to his previous comment where he recalls how this strawman was given so much ice time. He recalls Pop, Nicola, and Richard:

        http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=1994&p=7#106668

        Another case where Brandon paraphrases for the sake of unjustified lulz.

        Hyperreal.

    • OTOH…

      Looking farther (H/T HOCKEY SCHTICK), I find:

      To the credit of the researchers they made all their results available in a searchable database.

      But David Henderson and David Friedman appear to be responding to a comment:

      At 4:44 PM, February 28, 2014, Anonymous Mark Bahner said…

      Hi David,

      I downloaded data file for this paper into an Excel file:

      h t t p :// iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/media/erl460291datafile.txt (modified to get past moderation)

      …and did a “countif” for the 7 levels of “endorsement.”

      These were the results:

      Level 1 = 64
      Level 2 = 922
      Level 3 = 2910
      Level 4 = 7970
      Level 5 = 54
      Level 6 = 15
      Level 7 = 9

      I wonder why the combined the first three bins? Oh right…to “simplify the analysis.” (Heh, heh, heh! Good to see a little humor in a peer-reviewed journal…)

      I’m sure there’s an explanation for this…

      • > I’m sure there’s an explanation for this…

        What’s “this,” AK?

        The first three bins form a two-level binary tree.

      • What’s “this,” AK?

        I got the impression that the “erl460291datafile.txt” file was left available by a slip. But Crok says SKS made their data available “in a searchable database.”. Different data?

        Didn’t you notice the OTOH I started off with?

      • > Didn’t you notice the OTOH I started off with?

        Yes, AK, you clearly announced you were about to throw a squirrel around, but that does not tell which explanation you’re looking for. Or perhaps the “slip” was the explanation you’re looking for?

        Compare the two files, and report.

      • Or perhaps the “slip” was the explanation you’re looking for?

        No, the “slip” was what I was questioning. If the two files are identical, there was no slip.

      • AK:

        I got the impression that the “erl460291datafile.txt” file was left available by a slip. But Crok says SKS made their data available “in a searchable database.”. Different data?

        The file you refer to was the archived data hosted by the journal. It does not provide the same information as the searchable database provides. Primarily, it provides data for 11,944 papers while the searchable database provides for data for 12,280 papers. Strangely, the page for the searchable database claims to provide data for 12,465 papers (as opposed to the 12,280 it does provide) even though there were actually 12,464 papers in their data set.

        No explanation has ever been provided as to why the full data set has 12,465 papers, the searchable database has 12,280 papers and the archived data has 11,944 papers. Instead, Cook et al have just repeatedly insisted all their data is available.

        Additional data in other files was discovered by yours truly. This data was also only for 11,944 papers. It did, however, contain columns not present in any published file. The full data for the 521 papers has never been published, and no data for 185 papers was published at all. Not even their titles have been published.

        I broke it all down on this page. Unfortunately, I forgot about the project it was for and have never gotten around to writing up a full description of a number of other issues.

      • @Brandon Shollenberger…

        Thanks. It would be interesting to understand what’s going on there.

      • AK, no prob. I wish I understood it myself.

    • Brandon, do you agree that only 1.6% would put the human contribution at over 50%, or would you go more with Bart’s poll where 50% of the the top two quartiles of climate scientists put it at greater than 75%? These numbers are quite disparate. Which do you trust more?

      • Look! A squirrel!

      • Jim D, I don’t agree with either number. I think the Cook et al paper is trash and can’t tell us anything of value. I think Bart Verheggen’s polling was likely better, but I don’t feel comfortable forming an opinion on his conclusions until I examine his data. Last I heard, that data isn’t available.

        That said, if I had to pick one or the other, I’d definitely go with Verheggen’s. Even if I found things in his data that made me disagree with his results, I can’t imagine they’d be anywhere near as bad as the problems with the Skeptical Science group’s work.

      • What’s your point, jimmy? That there’s a consensus to be found somewhere between 1.6% and 50%? Are you giving up on the 97% BS, jimmy dee?

      • Some aspects of Bart’s results are here. Not as complete as I would like, but better than nothing, and much more detailed than anything Cook showed. Many of them are sorted into quartiles according to climate publishing amounts. There is a trend towards higher attributions with more publishing.
        http://pubs.acs.org/doi/suppl/10.1021/es501998e/suppl_file/es501998e_si_001.pdf

      • Don M, the point is, according to Bart’s poll, the median is above 75%, and that is if you include the don’t knows as part of the lower 50%.

      • What’s the consensus, jimmy? Don’t give me that vague crap? Define the consensus.

      • Jim D, I won’t dismiss those results out of hand. I’ll give them the chance to convince me of what they have to say. Convincing me of something takes more than just saying it though. If people aren’t willing to publish their data, I’m not willing to assume it says what they claim it says. That’s especially true if people like John Cook are authors on the paper.

        Even if I ignored everything about his consensus paper (and his follow-up publications which misrepresent it), this is a guy who has fabricated quotes on multiple occasions. It’s so bad the Skeptical Science team had to go back through over a 100 quotes he posted to check them for accuracy because they were worried some of them might have been fabricated.* And even after they did that, he wound up fabricating new quotes so more corrections had to be made.

        I’ll trust their claims if they make their data available. And when I say “make their data available,” I mean make their data available. None of this nonsense like with the Cook et al paper where they claim to have made all their data available even though it clearly is not. For instance, they’ve simply chosen not to publish the data for 521 papers they rated. They haven’t even published the names of the papers.

        *There’s a topic in the leaked forum about this. I can find it if anyone doubts me.

      • > Look! A squirrel!

        I thought it was “looking farther,” AK.

      • > Jim D, I don’t agree with either number.

        Well, here was Brandon, a while ago:

        The “consensus” they’re promoting says it is more likely humans have a negligible impact on the planet’s warming than a large one.

        http://rankexploits.com/musings/2013/on-the-consensus/

        The consensus must have whispered this in Brandon’s ear.

      • AK doesn’t want to look at Bart’s poll. Of the 80% who had a quantitative opinion, 90% said more than 50% was anthropogenic and more than 60% said more than 75%. These numbers increase with climate publishing too.

      • If he won’t release his data and methods, it is not science.

      • This just one more circular attempt to bootstrap a position without finishing the science.

        First, as documented in climate-gate, and seen many times since, you gate keep the journals, attack dissenters mercilessly, smear them for any connection, no matter how tenuous or incidental to bogeymen of your own invention, then use citations to “prove” your case.

        If this is how the “New Enlightenment” works, we have actually seen it before, lots of times, and it doesn’t turn out well, even if we don’t end up sacrificing thousands of captives at the top of a pyramid to make the climate better, lots of bad things happen with ratiocination is replaced by rationalization.

      • &willard (@nevaudit), Jim D…

        I thought it was “looking farther,” AK.

        AK doesn’t want to look at Bart’s poll.

        For me, the issue is the behavior at SKS. Call it ad hominem if you like (I don’t), but this sort of stuff goes to discredit anything they say.

        I don’t care about “consensus”.

        The “consensus” of archaeologists is still sure (AFAIK) that there was a dark age separating the Mediterranean Iron Age from the Late Bronze.

        The “consensus” of anthro-palaeontologists is still sure (AFAIK) that the common ancestor of humans, chimps, bonobos, and gorillas looked like a chimp.

        So I don’t see anything wrong with the “consensus” of “climate scientists” thinking that much/most of the recent warming is caused by anthropogenic CO2. And I strongly suspect that most of that same “consensus” of “climate scientists” would agree with me that there’s some chance that:

        •       The recent rise in pCO2 isn’t really the result of fossil carbon emissions.

        •       The recent rise in pCO2 isn’t really the result of any anthropogenic activity (really slim chance here, I agree).

        •       The recent warming was entirely due to natural variation.

        There might be some disagreement about the probabilities. There would certainly be disagreement about the relative value of looking into those possibilities. But I doubt more than a tiny fraction of “climate scientists” would insist that there was no chance whatsoever.

      • “Of the 80% who had a quantitative opinion, 90% said more than 50%”

        So jimmy, is the broadest consensus 72% of climate scientists agree that humans are responsible for >50% of recent warming?

        Commit to something, jimmy. You are all over the freaking map.

      • Don M, that’s what the poll says. Are you having difficulty with that? I don’t.

      • OK, jimmy. Let’s stipulate that BV is relatively honest and competent. I accept that his results are probably a fair approximate representation of climate scientists’ opinion. That should put the 97% consensus BS to rest, right jimmy?

      • Cook’s abstract said “97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.” I am not so sure I would dispute that, because it is a very weak statement. The flip-side is that the 3% really are the don’t knows and deniers.

      • > the issue is the behavior at SKS.

        Ze issue, again. There are lots of issues, like Brandon’s lack of decency regarding emails and IPs, Brandon’s ridiculous caricatures, and an academic you even cite who smears C13.

        There are lots of issues.

      • You are being disingenuous, jimmy. You know the alleged consensus that has been promoted by the Cook paper’s authors and fellow travelers is that 97% of the climate literature supports the contention that >50% of CO2 in the atmosphere is of human origin. The BV led paper directly refutes that B S. Doesn’t it, jimmy? Can you give us one straight answer, jimmy?

      • Sorry, that should be >50% of recent warming.

      • One common problem with discussing work whose data hasn’t been released is it often makes it difficult to track down where numbers come from. Jim D says:

        AK doesn’t want to look at Bart’s poll. Of the 80% who had a quantitative opinion, 90% said more than 50% was anthropogenic and more than 60% said more than 75%. These numbers increase with climate publishing too.

        I don’t see such numbers in the link he provided (copied here). Table S3 says 1868 people responded to question of whether or not the “contribution of greenhouse gases exceed[s] 50% of recent warming.” 407 gave a non-quantitative answer, giving 1461 responses with a quantitative answer. 1461/1868 = 78%, which is close to the 80% Jim D cites.

        However, the table clearly says only 84% of these respondents agreed to the question. It even gives an uncertainty range of 82-86%. Jim D’s 90% doesn’t come close to falling in that range.

        Perhaps Jim D found his values somewhere in that document other than the table I cite. Perhaps he made a mistake. I don’t know. What I know is it’s a real pain to try to discuss what the “right” answers are when you can’t look at the data.

        Plus, it’s hard to see why we should trust results if the person asking us to gives us wrong information about them.

      • Brandon, my numbers only come from eye-balling Figure S3, and are rounded to a 10% multiple. Go by what S3 says, not what I say. It is worth studying that graph.

      • Don M, Cook’s paper has been widely misquoted by both sides, but the paper itself is pretty tame. Perhaps their press release incited some people. They were interested in the consensus gap, because the public have a perception that the percentage of scientists who think Man has been responsible for any warming is much lower (57%). The consensus gap was the point as is clearly seen in the video Cook released with the paper.

      • JimD: seems to me we are debating which guesses on what number of scientists are accurately guessing an answer in response to a question for which there is not enough data available for anyone to have a verifiable opinion. The implication is that these scientists are somehow immune to peer pressure, faulty logic, bias, insufficient information, and lack of familiarity with all the research that has been done on what is an largely under-researched field. In short, it’s an appeal to authority in a field where there is no actual authority due to all the uncertainty.

        I’m sorry, but that really has nothing to do with science.

      • Jim D, I’d rather not try to guess numbers by eyeballing a graph when I can read numbers from a table. That’s espsecially true since the figure you cite doesn’t even show results for people as a whole in any legible fashion, but instead has multiple lines you’d have to try to average.

        Don M, Cook’s paper has been widely misquoted by both sides, but the paper itself is pretty tame. Perhaps their press release incited some people.

        You might want to note the fact the post I linked to above shows the authors of the paper are misrepresenting their own results. And they’re complaining when their critics describe their results the way they said the results should be described.

        Apparently people were supposed to describe their results one way until Cook et al saw those results and realized how embarrassing they were. Then it was important to describe them a different way.

      • > The BV led paper directly refutes that B S.

        Show me, Don Don.

      • Cook’s abstract said “97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.”

        IOW ALL global warming is caused by humans. That’s not what they said, but that’s how many/most uninformed readers will take it. As everybody knows.

        I am not so sure I would dispute that, because it is a very weak statement.

        Designed to be misunderstood.

        The flip-side is that the 3% really are the don’t knows and deniers.

        Nobody knows. Real scientists know they don’t know. Depends on how people interpret the questions on the polls. That’s one reason I don’t participate in such things.

      • Brandon, as I said at the top, I would have liked more, but they certainly provided a useful graph in Figure S3. This answers a lot of questions people have by itself.

      • There are lots of issues, like Brandon’s lack of decency regarding emails and IPs, Brandon’s ridiculous caricatures, and an academic you even cite who smears C13.

        Look! A bunch of squirrels!

      • So, since Figure S3 shows roughly quartiles, you can take the unweighted average of the four lines for the approximate total.

      • You are being disingenuous, jimmy. And apparently willy is joining you. The Cook 97% paper was designed and constructed in what was a premeditated, non-scientific and dishonest attempt to make the public believe that there is a nearly unanimous consensus among climate scientists that humans have caused from >50% to 100%, of recent global warming. According to your own eyeballing of BV’s far more credible paper, it’s actually a far from unanimous 72%. You clowns will never admit that the Cook paper is dishonest BS. Your credibility will consequently remain in the toilet.

      • A lot of the discussion on the Cook paper has been on points it didn’t even make, and it misses the point that it did make, the consensus gap. I think it is just one big rhetorical detour in the blogosphere.

      • > Look! A bunch of squirrels!

        If you wish to focus on “ze” issue, AK, here’s a reminder of that sub-thread:

        Brandon, do you agree that only 1.6% would put the human contribution at over 50%, or would you go more with Bart’s poll where 50% of the the top two quartiles of climate scientists put it at greater than 75%? These numbers are quite disparate. Which do you trust more?

        https://judithcurry.com/2014/09/19/week-in-review-27/#comment-630698

        I can play squirrels too, AK: archeologists, bonobos, SkS, etc.

      • That’s deliberately evasive BS, jimmy dee. You are just sinking deeper down the toilet. Bon voyage.

      • Don M, I don’t engage in misinterpreting papers and then arguing about the misinterpretations. Complete waste of time.

      • Oh really, jimmy? How do you interpret this:

        “Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.”

        Did the SkS kidz intend for the public to think that deliberately vague BS means humans are causing a little bit of global warming? I know you won’t tell the freaking truth for a change.

        You don’t have the sense or the common decency to admit to even the most obviously dishonest alarmist BS.

      • But I do, Jim D. Provide evidence that this is what C13 claims, Don Don:

        > there is a nearly unanimous consensus among climate scientists that humans have caused from >50% to 100%, of recent global warming.

        As if C13 was responsible for your misrepresentations.

        ShowThat’s not what C13 claims

      • > How do you interpret this: “Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.”

        C13 found that among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. That interpretation works by disquotation, in case you want to learn a new word, Don Don.

        They also found something like that among the ones who wrote these papers, something you omitted to mention.

      • This is a test of your integrity, willy:

        “Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.”

        Are they talking about a little bit of the global warming? There is a lot of context as to what they meant, willy. I will be more specific;

        Did they mean to convey that humans are causing less than half of global warming?

        Do your best to be decent, willy. Like you were before you got mixed up with the wrong crowd.

      • Jim D:

        Brandon, as I said at the top, I would have liked more, but they certainly provided a useful graph in Figure S3. This answers a lot of questions people have by itself.

        It’s “a useful graph” we can’t verify. We can’t even do basic checks to see if the responses people gave which the graph is broken down into are realistic.

        A lot of the discussion on the Cook paper has been on points it didn’t even make, and it misses the point that it did make, the consensus gap. I think it is just one big rhetorical detour in the blogosphere.

        You say this, yet you’ve consistently avoided discussing the point I brought up – that forum discussion shows Cook et al are misrepresenting their results while their critics are accurately portraying those results. That’s true whether or not the paper made any particular points.

        The paper has been represented by the authors of the paper in a certain way, and their discussion when designing the project shows that representation is deceptive. That’s a topic well worth discussing.

        Besides, if you read the post I linked to, the forum discussion shows the paper itself misrepresented their results by conflating two different positions as the “consensus” position.

      • > Did they mean to convey that humans are causing less than half of global warming?

        You go first, Don Don: tell me where you got that “there is a nearly unanimous consensus among climate scientists that humans have caused from >50% to 100%, of recent global warming.”

        Reading the page Brandon did not cite here but where he revealed all the IPs and the emails (as an IT, he should know better: this is stuff over which one could get fired) would suffice to answer your question, BTW.

        You have it all backwards, Don Don, and no, appealing to Pekka won’t help you.

      • You failed the test, willy. Bon voyage!

      • > that forum discussion shows Cook et al are misrepresenting their results while their critics are accurately portraying those results

        The first claim is false, or worse absurd, if we consider that misrepresentation is a public matter. The second claim is misleading at best, and rests on misrepresentation of Tom Curtis’ comments.

      • I already answered your question, Don Don. In my first comments in this thread. On the other hand, you have yet to substantiate your crap you’re throwing at Jim D.

        Jim D will ignore that crap. Just like Pekka would. This may explain why you’re asking me to be more like Pekka, and why I won’t.

      • The Cook paper was on (correcting myself slightly) the fact, from a previous poll, that 57% of the public did not know that scientists overwhelmingly agreed that human activity was causing global warming, while the actual scientists are 97% in agreement on that statement. It is a little complex to understand, which may be why the point was missed, and people started attacking the paper for something else entirely.

      • willard –

        ==> “The second claim is misleading at best, and rests on misrepresentation of Tom Curtis’ comments.”

        Brandon has made it quite clear that it doesn’t matter what people say. What matters is how Brandon interprets what they say.

        For example, Brandon has interpreted that Dan Kahan says that “you’re an idiot” if you don’t think that the universe began with a huge explosion. Of course, Dan never said that, but Brandon interpreted Dan as saying that, and therefore claimed that’s what Dan said.

        See, it doesn’t matter what someone actually says. What matters is Brandon’s interpretation.

        Here’s another example:

        Brandon interprets what Neil deGrasse Tyson says to mean that he’s an atheist – so Brandon calls DeGrasse an atheist.

        But DeGrasse doesn’t say that he’s an atheist. DeGrasse says that he does not accept the label of “atheist.” But DeGrasse says that if he had to assign a word to his stance on god, it would be “agnostic.”

        So you see- it doesn’t matter what DeGrasse actually says. What matters is how Brandon interpret what he DeGrasse says.

        I hope that I’ve cleared that up for you. I could provide more examples if you’d like. I tried to give links to clips where DeGrasse contradicts how Brandon misinterpret’s Degrasse’s beliefs, but Brandon put me into moderation at his blog when I did that. I’m guessing Brandon doesn’t like it when I provide links that show that his interpretations of what people say are in contrast to what they actually say?

      • willard –

        ==> “The second claim is misleading at best, and rests on misrepresentation of Tom Curtis’ comments.”

        Brandon has made it quite clear that it doesn’t matter what people say. What matters is how Brandon interprets what they say.

        For example, Brandon has interpreted that Dan Kahan says that “you’re an id*ot” if you don’t think that the universe began with a huge explosion. Of course, Dan never said that, but Brandon interpreted Dan as saying that, and therefore claimed that’s what Dan said.

        See, it doesn’t matter what someone actually says. What matters is Brandon’s interpretation.

        Here’s another example:

        Brandon interprets what Neil deGrasse Tyson says to mean that he’s an atheist – so Brandon calls DeGrasse an atheist.

        But DeGrasse doesn’t say that he’s an atheist. DeGrasse says that he does not accept the label of “atheist.” But DeGrasse says that if he had to assign a word to his stance on god, it would be “agnostic.”

        So you see- it doesn’t matter what DeGrasse actually says. What matters is how Brandon interpret what he DeGrasse says.

        I hope that I’ve cleared that up for you. I could provide more examples if you’d like. I tried to give links to clips where DeGrasse contradicts how Brandon misinterpret’s Degrasse’s beliefs, but Brandon put me into moderation at his blog when I did that. I’m guessing Brandon doesn’t like it when I provide links that show that his interpretations of what people say are in contrast to what they actually say?

      • This is really very simple. The C13 paper abstract claimed that “97.1% endorsed the consensus position…” What consensus position? Here is a hint, from C13:

        “Explicit endorsements were divided into non-quantified (e.g., humans are contributing to global warming without quantifying the contribution) and quantified (e.g., humans are contributing more than 50% of global warming, consistent with the 2007 IPCC statement that most of the global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations).”

        It’s the IPCC statement. The IPCC statement is quantified-most of the global warming. In C13 they lumped quantified and unquantified ratings together and employed other dubious shenanigans to get the meaningless 97% consensus BS. There is no data supporting a 97% consensus that humans have caused >50% of the warming. Period. Everybody knows it. Case closed.

      • > The Cook paper was on (correcting myself slightly) the fact, from a previous poll, that 57% of the public did not know that scientists overwhelmingly agreed that human activity was causing global warming, while the actual scientists are 97% in agreement on that statement.

        Yes, Jim D. From the horse’s mouth:

        An accurate perception of the degree of scientific consensus is an essential element to public support for climate policy (Ding et al 2011). Communicating the scientific consensus also increases people’s acceptance that climate change (CC) is happening (Lewandowsky et al 2012). Despite numerous indicators of a consensus, there is wide public perception that climate scientists disagree over the fundamental cause of global warming (GW; Leiserowitz et al 2012, Pew 2012). In the most comprehensive analysis performed to date, we have extended the analysis of peer-reviewed climate papers in Oreskes (2004). We examined a large sample of the scientific literature on global CC, published over a 21 year period, in order to determine the level of scientific consensus that human activity is very likely causing most of the current GW (anthropogenic global warming, or AGW).

        http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/article

        More than a year-and-a-half after the publication of C13, we still encounter readings that goes against the very first paragraph.

        Also notice the sentence that elided Brandon:

        There aren’t a lot that specifically quantify AGW, but there are a good number that essentially endorse the IPCC report, which is equivalent to endorsing AGW as greater than 50%.

        http://www.hi-izuru.org/forum/The%20Consensus%20Project/2012-01-24-Defining%20the%20scientific%20consensus.html

        Dana simply wanted to avoid an assumption that he accepts anyway.

        Hyperreal, I tell you, Jim D.

        ***

        I see that Brandon has yet to sanitize the IPs and the emails.

      • Joshua is giving a very dishonest portrayal. I generally don’t bother responding to it when he does, but since he’s accusing me of abusing moderation, I will. He knows by saying:

        I tried to give links to clips where DeGrasse contradicts how Brandon misinterpret’s Degrasse’s beliefs, but Brandon put me into moderation at his blog when I did that. I’m guessing Brandon doesn’t like it when I provide links that show that his interpretations of what people say are in contrast to what they actually say?

        People will get the idea I used moderation for some nefarious means. In reality, I told Joshua he needed to make on-topic, constructive comments if he wanted to continue posting. I told him if he would not, he would be placed on moderation.

        After being told this, he posted links to videos without even trying to explain what the links showed. That is not making a constructive comment. If someone wants to use evidence to contradict a point, they need to discuss what the evidence says. Posting a link to support what one says is fine, but it is not enough on its own.

        Moreover, Joshua acts as though being placed in moderation prevents him from making a point. This is not true. My moderation policy does not prevent him from posting anything at all. All I’ve done is say he must post anything he wants to say in a specific thread, to which he may link in any other topic. That means he can keep commenting as much as he wants, but people won’t have to see it unless they choose to.

        The remainder of Joshua’s comment is wrong as well, but I don’t care to demonstrate that. Joshua has a long history of creating issues to criticize people in smear campaigns like this, and he rarely shows any interest in having his smears be accurate. I think the fact he grossly mischaracterizes the moderation situation to paint himself a victim and me a dishonest bully should suffice.

        Seriously. Ask yourself this. How many people would like the option not to have to see Joshua’s comments? That’s what I’ve done. I’m pretty sure a lot of people would be happy if the same was done here.

      • They describe their meaning of consensus in their abstract “the consensus position that humans are causing global warming”. They don’t say most and they don’t mean most either. AGW says that human activity can cause global warming not that it has to cause most global warming in whatever timeframe you care to choose. Most scientists actually agree with that. Oddly CO2 and fossil fuels are hardly mentioned and not invoked in human activity here either, just AGW which perhaps conventionally implies that, but some may interpret it as land-use change only. Depends what you mean by AGW.

      • > There is no data supporting a 97% consensus that humans have caused >50% of the warming.

        C13 claims that there is, Don Don: the ABSTRACTS that endorse the IPCC’s position, and the authors’ ratings of the PAPERS.

        You’re just equivocating with a stronger meaning of “supporting” that C13 requires.

        You seem to have forgotten that we’ve been through all this more than a year ago, e.g.:

        Check is in the mail.

        http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2013/05/17/consensus-behind-the-numbers/#comment-18899

      • Brandon –

        ==> “After being told this, he posted links to videos without even trying to explain what the links showed.”

        I explained why I linked the videos. You didn’t understand my explanation. I suggest that when you don’t understand someone’s explanation, you ask for clarification.

        ==> “Moreover, Joshua acts as though being placed in moderation prevents him from making a point. ”

        Not at all, Brandon. I was able to make my point quite clearly. That is why you responded here – because I made my point quite clear. You putting me in moderation has little impact on whether I am able or not able to make my point. You putting me in moderation has more to do with your habit of confusing your opinion with fact – in this case, your opinion that I didn’t provide an explanation being conflated with a statement of fact that I failed to provide an explanation.

        And besides, Brandon, the bottom line is that the more substantial point in my comment – that you seem to think that your misinterpretation of what someone says = what they said.

      • I normally try to ignore the things willard posts, but I find it amusing to be criticized for not covering/noticing/whatever this comment:

        There aren’t a lot that specifically quantify AGW, but there are a good number that essentially endorse the IPCC report, which is equivalent to endorsing AGW as greater than 50%.

        In reality, willard is just cherry-picking quotes. While it is true Dana Nuccitelli said that in one comment, the point was discussed further. Ari Jokimäki said:

        You can’t assume that either for the papers that say “IPCC is right”, because that’s just other way of saying “anthropogenic global warming” especially to some researchers outside the field. You can assume that only for the papers that say IPCC is right in their quantification that human contribution is >50%. Otherwise you’re just quessing what they actually mean by their IPCC endorsement. To me this division feels arbitrary. Two similar papers end up in different categories just because other one mentioned IPCC and other one didn’t.

        Dana Nuccitelli responded:

        That’s fine – I think we’ve agreed not to put IPCC endorsements in category #1. I’m okay with that.

        Category 2 is “Explicitly endorses but does not quantify (or minimize) AGW.” Thus it doesn’t require an assumption of >50%.

        Anyone who checks the guidelines they agreed to will find Nuccitelli’s understanding is correct as they specifically say:

        Mention that human activity is a dominant influence or has caused most of recent climate change (>50%). Endorsing the IPCC without explicitly quantifying doesnt count as explicit endorsement – that would be implicit.

        It is only via tactics like cherry-picking quotes people like willard can challenge what I’ve said. Any genuine attempt to analyze what I said will find it is accurate.

      • Brandon –

        ==> “How many people would like the option not to have to see Joshua’s comments?”

        This is quite beautiful. So, after saying that you put me into moderation because I linked to a clip w/o providing an explanation (actually, I did provide an explanation – you just didn’t understand my explanation) – you then make it quite apparent that there was more afoot.

        ==> ” That’s what I’ve done.””

        ==> “I’m pretty sure a lot of people would be happy if the same was done here.”

        So they would be happy to see me placed into moderation here for failing to provide an explanation for a link I made? Or, to be put into moderation so people “do not have” to see my comments?

        Don’t ever change, Brandon. That was just beautiful!

        Oh, and don’t forget – each time you read my comments it’s because I’m forcing you to waste your time!!!!1!!!!!

      • ==> “I normally try to ignore the things willard posts, ”

        Made obvious by the fact that he often responds to willard’s posts.

      • > the consensus position that humans are causing global warming

        Yes, Jim D, but then they clarify what they meant by this in the paper:

        We classified each abstract according to the type of research (category) and degree of endorsement. Written criteria were provided to raters for category (table 1) and level of endorsement of AGW (table 2). Explicit endorsements were divided into non-quantified (e.g., humans are contributing to global warming without quantifying the contribution) and quantified (e.g., humans are contributing more than 50% of global warming, consistent with the 2007 IPCC statement that most of the global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations).

        http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/article

        That’s the second paragraph in section 2, entitled Methodology. Numbering paragraphs would have helped online exegeses.

        So we need to distinguish AGW theory and the current statement by the IPCC.

        ***

        As an aside, let’s consider the (Don Don’s?) assumption that to have an opinion on AGW, you need to have a crisp attribution statement. That is, to hold AGW, you need to establish how much A there is. Now, consider Spencer’s position: he claims believing in AGW, but ignoring how much A there is. Could be 1%; could be 100%.

        This assumption and Spencer’s stance might not be compatible.

      • Joshua:

        I explained why I linked the videos. You didn’t understand my explanation. I suggest that when you don’t understand someone’s explanation, you ask for clarification.

        I don’t agree this is true as your comments were things like:

        Well, there is this…

        And:

        And there’s also this – where he lies about what he believes:

        Which I don’t think any reasonable person would consider an explanation. Even if they did consider it an explanation though, that doesn’t affect what I said here. Explaining why you link to a piece of evidence does not make a comment constructive. You need to discuss what the evidence shows.

        And besides, Brandon, the bottom line is that the more substantial point in my comment – that you seem to think that your misinterpretation of what someone says = what they said.

        Which is complete BS. I don’t do this. You just like to intentionally misunderstand what people say so you can criticize them. For instance, I said you act as though being placed in moderation prevents you from making a point. I said that while explaining how you could still comment at my site. That makes it abundantly clear I was referring to what you could do at my site, not all sites in general.

        There is no way anyone with basic reading comprehension skills would misunderstand that. You, however, chose to so you could say I was wrong:

        Not at all, Brandon. I was able to make my point quite clearly.

        Which I think is a sign you’re intentionally trolling people. Other people might think it’s a sign you’re just really that incompetent. I don’t know that we’ll ever be able to tell who is right.

        For people wanting to judge the situation for themselves, here is the post where I placed Joshua on moderation. I don’t intend to discuss it further here as I don’t think Judith Curry wants her blog filled up with this sort of exchange. If people want to talk about it, I invite them to do so at my site instead.

      • I remember that , willy. this is what nuttticelli was responding to:

        ” Wouldn’t it be interesting to see how many responses were in categories 2 and 3 and were therefore “assumed” to endorse the >50% human contribution plank of the alleged expert consensus.?. I bet they will DENY your request.”

        I badgered the clown into giving me the numbers. You do admit that categories 2 and 3 were assumed, without any freaking basis, to endorse the alleged >50% human contribution consensus?

        If you look through those discussions some more, I am sure you can find that little dana clearly maintains that the 97% consensus is that humans are causing most, if not all of the warming. You can find him repeating the same story on his little BS guardian blog.

        What would be the freaking point of trumpeting a 97% consensus that humans were causing some unspecified amount of warming that could be anything between just above zero and 100%? You are shameless, willyboy.

      • Why don’t you post all that you are whining about here, joshie? Judith let’s you get by with just about anything. Or put on your big boy pants and stfu.

      • Brandon –

        Do you see how easy it is for me to force you to waste your time. I have so much power over you, don’t I?

        Let’s look at what you left out of your explanation of what happened.

        I quoted you as saying the following:

        ““it is also perfectly in line with the many things Neil deGrasse Tyson has said about religion in the past [as you characterized his opinion – “Religious people are crazy, hah, hah”].”

        Immediately after quoting you, I provided a link to a video clip of Tyson saying things that were not “in line” with the your characterization of his opinion – that “religious people are crazy”

        I then said:

        Of course, when you have the wisdom to understand that what people believe is what you interpret rather than what they say, you dont have to bother with what tbey say to determine what they believe, right?

        I think it is pretty clear that my explanation for the clip was that it underscores what I describe – that you think that you have the wisdom to understand that people mean what you interpret them to me rather than what they say

        Now maybe my explanation wasn’t clear to you. If so, you could have asked for clarification. But the explanation was there. The explanation was hat you confused your incorrect characterization of Degrasse’s beliefs with the fact of what deGrasse has said about his beliefs. I’d say that the explanation should have been clear also because I have explained before that tend to conflate your opinion with fact.

        But at any rate, Brandon – this is all a bit of a side issue. The more important issue is that you continue to conflate your opinion with fact. As you did with Kahan, as you did with deGrasse, and as you do many times over.

        That’s the point, Brandon. That you put me in moderation is silly – except that it shows, once again, your pattern of error.

        Anyway, have a nice night. I’ve made my point – no need to keep discussing it on this thread. There will be other threads in the future where I’ll be able to point to your pattern of error, I’m sure.

      • Thanks for the link to that thread, willy:

        Dana said:”Note that if a paper said humans are causing less than 50% of global warming, or that another factor was causing more than 50% (or ‘most’, or some similar language), we put it in our rejections/minimization of the human influence category. Our basis was the IPCC statement that humans have caused most global warming since the mid-20th century. But if a paper simply said ‘human greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming’, that went into the endorsement category as well. After all, there’s no reason for most climate research to say ‘humans are causing >50% of global warming’ (except attribution research), especially in the abstract.”

        You clowns call that science.

      • God knows you do badger, Don Don. I hope your kids don’t badger you the way you badger others.

        BartV told the story in his post:

        Over at Lucia’s, Brandon Shollenberger found a way to search the results of 12,280 out of 12,465 papers. Based on this search method and the SkS paper rating guidelines, Marcel Crok reports the following breakdown of results:

        Category 1 (explicit endorsement with quantification): 65
        Category 2 (Explicit Endorsement without quantification): 934
        Category 3 (Implicit Endorsement): 2933
        Category 4 (Neutral): 7930 [the reported number]
        Category 5 (Implicit Rejection): 53
        Category 6 (Explicit Rejection without quantification): 15
        Category 7 (Explicit Rejection with quantification): 10

        The 97% is arrived at by adding up categories 1 to 3 and taking that as a percentage of all categories except 4. This percentage is actually 98% using the numbers above, but these are obtained via a shortcut.

        Of course, various other fractions could be calculated from this list, each with a slightly different meaning. E.g. of those abstracts making a statement about the quantitative contribution of human activity to the warming, 87% (65/75) endorsed dominant human causation. And of those abstracts expressing an explicit position on the cause of global warming, 97.6% (999/1024) endorsed human causation.

        Any way you slice it, a strong consensus it is.

        http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2013/05/17/consensus-behind-the-numbers/

        Perhaps BartV forgot to take into consideration the slicing of badgers.

        ***

        How Spencer, Scafetta and the like get into 5-6 is because they minimize AGW as presented by the IPCC. They don’t get to claim endorsing an AGW theory where A is more than 1%.

        The best you can get out of this, Don Don, is that C13 should have hired editors to clarify what they mean. Or that the notion of endorsement is quite moot. That does not justify your badgering, to say the least.

        It’s not that complicated.

      • > What would be the freaking point of trumpeting a 97% consensus that humans were causing some unspecified amount of warming that could be anything between just above zero and 100%?

        Ask Spencer, Don Don. He’s on record saying that he believes in AGW and yet he does not know how much to attribute to A. Not even a ballpark like the IPCC provides.

        Tell me more about Spencer, Don Don.

      • You work with what you got, willyboy. I have had a lot of training and experience in extracting information out of miscreants, who don’t want to give it up. There are much more effective means than long distance badgering, but I didn’t have little dana in my physical presence.

        Why are you bringing my kids into this, willy? I didn’t read further. I assume it is the usual claptrap.

      • Cuz he’s nasty and mean-spirited, Don. Look at the ‘I hope’. Pfah.
        ==============

      • Spencer? A wise man not to guess about attribution when it is still so unclear. But his work with clouds suggest that he’ll eventually come down on the side of low sensitivity and small attribution of warming to man.
        ====================

      • Don Monfort:

        Why don’t you post all that you are whining about here, joshie? Judith let’s you get by with just about anything. Or put on your big boy pants and stfu.

        Do you really have to encourage him? >.<

        You work with what you got, willyboy. I have had a lot of training and experience in extracting information out of miscreants, who don’t want to give it up. There are much more effective means than long distance badgering, but I didn’t have little dana in my physical presence.

        You could always go over to Skeptical Science and try to get them to explain how it is “incoherent” to describe their results the way Dana Nuccitelli said he envisioned they would be described. I still can’t believe Tom Curtis and Rob Honeycutt walked into that one.

      • Yes kim, it looks like willy is trying to get meaner. I hurt his feelings when I announced that he is just a minor annoyance. He is trying to upgrade his rep. Pathetic. I am putting him on my ignore list of those partisan hacks, whose comments lack any redeeming value. Up to now, only fanny the gaudy clown had earned that ignoble distinction. Nasty webby goes in that bin now, also. Little joshie and jimmy dee are on the verge of being consigned, but they could save themselves by becoming slightly more amusing.

      • Don, Jim D helps me understand climate, as does Pekka and several other alarmists. Joshua and willard are no help, and show no evidence of ever becoming helpful.

        Please come back, Human Carbon Volcano; all is forgiven.
        ============

      • Brandon, I am increasing feeling like it’s not worth my time to discuss anything with these dimensionless alarmist hacks. They are impervious to anything that doesn’t support the dogma. If they won’t admit that Cook13 is pile of crap, they are in too deep to pull out. Let them sink. Ridicule is all they deserve.

      • Don Monfort, but if nobody discussed things with them, they’d never be provoked into giving us more fodder to ridicule them over. Just think, we now have a clear explanation for why they feel it is okay to claim the “consensus” they found is humans cause 50+% of global warming. A week ago we didn’t.

        If people didn’t engage with them, we’d never have been able to show they’re directly contradicting their own stated standards!

      • Kim, kindly alert me when jimmy dee says something worthwhile. I tend to skim over his schtick his comments have the appearance of alarmist slogans he has copied onto a cardboard sign with a fat crayon.

        Yeah, I didn’t think I would miss Mr. Human Volcano, but he has demonstrated by his absence that he is not quite as offensive as those who didn’t have the decency to leave.

      • I might change my mind Brandon, but for now I think I’ll spend more time on my drinking.

      • Don Monfort, I don’t get your response. It sounds like you’re saying your drinking time is not your commenting time. That’d mean you normally respond to these people while sober.

        How is that possible? How can you read what these guys have to say without the assistance of booze? That doesn’t make sense!

        I kid, of course. It’d probably be better for me if I ignored these guys. I know it’d be better on my liver.

        Oh. Maybe that means I wasn’t kidding about needing booze to tolerate them. :P

      • > I think I’ll spend more time on my drinking.

        Words of wisdom, Don Don, words of wisdom.

        Please don’t spend time reading what you’re trashing. Or consider that John, Rob, Dana, Ari had to reach some agreement on what to do, which is not even contradicted by the finished product. That they thought aloud in a private forum, a forum Brandon promotes, with the IPs and the emails. That Tom Curtis is not part of that project anymore. That he still maintains a stronger interpretation of that project, an interpretation that resembles mine. Anyone who read that forum, the paper, and the project should be able to see that, except parsomatic artists like Brandon.

        Cheers,

        w

      • > Just think, we now have a clear explanation for why they feel it is okay to claim the “consensus” they found is humans cause 50+% of global warming. A week ago we didn’t.

        More than a week ago:

        John, IMO, the “theory” of AGW is that:

        A) The GMST has risen in the 20th century, and will continue to rise in the 21st;

        B) The primary cause (>50%) of this rise is the emission of GHG by human activity; and

        C) Absent changes in policy, technology and/or economic activity to reduce GHG emissions, the consequent temperature rise in the 21st will reach levels where they have serious adverse impacts on human well being and the health of eco-systems.

        There is certainly a consensus among climate scientists about the first two, and a majority beleive the third, but I am not sure it is a consensus.

        http://www.hi-izuru.org/forum/The%20Consensus%20Project/2012-01-24-Defining%20the%20scientific%20consensus.html

        More recently:

        > Simply acknowledging humans cause some amount of global warming is enough.

        In that sentence, “some” should mean “enough to be in line with the consensus position”, not is minimal, which would read like (5), or is negligible, which appeared in Chewbacca’s non sequitur.

        ***

        Playing the game of “what could this sentence mean?” is a game that we oftentimes encounter when dealing with what Eli qualified as parsomatics exercises:

        http://neverendingaudit.tumblr.com/tagged/Parsomatics

        This is unsurprising, considering that Lucia’s is the Parsomatics’ Mecca.

        http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2013/05/17/consensus-behind-the-numbers/#comment-18786

        In the quote above, “Chewbacca” refers to Brandon. I’m starting to regret having retired that nickname. It still fits him quite well.

      • The 1.6% is the number of abstracts that explicitly stated that humans cause >50%, correct?

      • Bill, yup. 1.6% (~65/4000) of the papers which were rated as expressing any opinion were rated as explicitly endorsing the idea humans cause 50+% of global warming.

  35. Koonin article, when you know his CV, means IPCC theory is dead at medium term.

    His article is the only one that will make me believe IPCC ;-). But that would be ad hominem.

    independently I expect his credibility will fall below the one of Seralini soon, but that is insider trade. Too bad.

    • JC seems to have given a fairly informative and from what I can tell accurate interview.

      I would be interested in whether JC believes that the complete interview was printed (what was cut?) and whether she was quoted accurately.

    • John Smith (it's my real name)

      Scott – thanks

    • John Smith (it's my real name)

      Scott
      just read the JC and Mann articles
      JC comes across reasoned and clear
      Mann not so much
      I can follow her logic train, his just seems like it has a couple bent rails
      maybe the brain structure of the species is diverging

  36. Are we looking at an example of cause and effect? We don’t need the scientific method to observe that fear of global warming is a Left vs. Right issue. Do we simply right off this relationship as “largely enigmatic” and fail to see the real causes underlying attacks on America from jihadists to climatists?

  37. I watched the Marshall Institute video, and the interesting part was the 45 minutes of questions Judith had to field, including some fairly astute and pointed ones at Judith’s positions. This was clearly not a soft-ball audience for Judith.

    • But Koch! Koch Bros!

      Meanwhile Mann goes on twitter announcing that he will aggressively bloc any question that don’t pre-suppose he is correct, because those questions would be in “bad faith.”

      But don’t worry, you are probably on the right side of the debate, because people with the facts on their side are always covering things up.

      • The audience clearly was not only the Marshall Institute members, especially the ones that asked questions. When one says he has been to Greenland and it is even worse than the climate scientists are saying, and another asks why she is only applying uncertainty to the consensus view and not her own, and another asks what her actual change to policy-making would be, it is a tough audience.

      • The audience clearly was not only the Marshall Institute members

        The conference was held at the National Press Club, which I believe is open to the general public.

      • ‘because those questions would be in “bad faith.”’

        TJA, Of course Mann is going to say that. He is a member of the Cult of Anthropomorphic global warming and isn’t going to debate theology with unbelievers.

      • “…another asks why she is only applying uncertainty to the consensus view and not her own….”

        Dr. Curry doesn’t acknowledge that her view on uncertainty is uncertain?

        The equivalent is a man (or woman) who says “I don’t know.” To which a warmist genius asks “Why don’t you admit that you can’t be certain about uncertainty. We need an Uncertain Uncertainty Monster.”

        And all the good little CAGW drones nod their heads at the perspicacity of the questioner. (After they look up perspicacity.)

        And all the normal people wonder why the CAGW genius doesn’t get the redundancy of his knuckle headed question.

      • GaryM, no, Judith has asserted some things with almost no uncertainty applied to them. For example she is pretty sure that no more than 50% of the warming is due to CO2, and especially unlikely is 100%. For this assertion, she has to assume positive natural warming (by some undeclared mechanism) with extreme confidence. She usually complains about confident statements, but this is one of her own. That was a good question by the audience member.

      • For example she is pretty sure that no more than 50% of the warming is due to CO2, and especially unlikely is 100%. For this assertion, she has to assume positive natural warming (by some undeclared mechanism) with extreme confidence.

        The mechanism has been declared. Read the Stadium Wave paper. Or even look at the pictures.

      • AK, the stadium wave is in a cool mode to explain the pause, but doesn’t explain the 0.7 C rise since the last time it was in this phase. The thing about the wheel is it just keeps turning and doesn’t go anywhere unlike what the climate is actually doing. They never tried to explain the 60-year warming with the stadium wave, only the pause.

      • The BIG question is why the pause 1940-1976 is so much warmer than the pause prior to 1910. The answer is NOT AGW. So the key question is convincing why the mechanism causing the warming between the two earlier pauses was not operational in the warming between the two latter pauses.

      • Figure 1 (middle) shows that these climate mode trend phases indeed behaved anomalously three times during
        the 20th century, immediately following the synchronization events of the 1910s, 1940s, and 1970s. This combination of
        the synchronization of these dynamical modes in the climate, followed immediately afterward by significant increase in the fraction of strong trends (coupling) without
        exception marked shifts in the 20th century climate state. These shifts were accompanied by breaks in the global
        mean temperature trend with respect to time, presumably associated with either discontinuities in the global radiative
        budget due to the global reorganization of clouds and water vapor or dramatic changes in the uptake of heat by
        the deep ocean.’ http://www.leif.org/EOS/2008GL037022.pdf

        Clouds and water vapor or changes in ocean heat uptake? The data suggests that late century warming was mostly clouds.

        http://www.leif.org/EOS/2008GL037022.pdf

        The turn of the century climate shift seems to have involved a step shift in cloud cover as well.

        ‘Earthshine changes in albedo shown in blue, ISCCP-FD shown in black and CERES in red. A climatologically significant change before CERES followed by a long period of insignificant change.’

      • Jim D:
        “AK, the stadium wave is in a cool mode to explain the pause, but doesn’t explain the 0.7 C rise since the last time it was in this phase.”

        1. The IPCC makes the gratuitous assertion that 110% (their PDF says it could be more), of post 1950s warming is anthropogenic. The PDF allows significant chance of values up to 150%.

        2. They assume that other human forcings (land use, aerosol etc. aerosol, cloud response to aerosol, etc.) combined are a net negative. greenhouse gas forcings are positive.

        3. Changes in solar irradiance have little effect.

        How do you take this forcing chart and get a 16+ year pause?

      • Judith –

        I just saw the you were quoted as saying that:

        we are fooling ourselves to think that CO2 control knob really influences climate on these decadal or even century time scales,”

        Did you really mean to say that or was it just a slip of the tongue? Do you really think it is foolish to think that CO2 influences the climate on centennial time scales?

        I mean first, I assume that you mean anthropogenic CO2, not just CO2? Is that right?

        And second, I assume that you mean dominates, not influences, is that right?

      • This was an unscripted response to a question. Should have been ‘dominates’ not influences.

      • The BIG question is why the pause 1940-1976 is so much warmer than the pause prior to 1910.

        Two essential points are:
        1) When energy balance is certainly a limiting factor, one warming step is much more likely produced by natural variability than two successive steps.
        2) The second step was predicted as an outcome of additional CO2 before it took place.

        Large uncertainties remain, but that’s exactly the reason for the wide uncertainty range of climate sensitivity acknowledged by IPCC. More than that is not justified.

      • Yes, the Wally Broecker (1975, Science) paper, the first to mention global warming, predicted the second phase of warming before most of it happened, just based on a sensitivity and CO2 growth as estimated at that time. Broecker also put the 1910-1940 warm phase in the context of 80- and 180-year natural variability cycles that are typical of what had been happening over the past 800 years according to Greenland records. He predicted a 2010 temperature that was unprecedented in those records, and it happened.

      • ==> “This was an unscripted response to a question. Should have been ‘dominates’ not influences.”

        So, then, you are saying it is “foolish” to think that more than 50% of the warming over the last century is attributable to anthropogenic CO2.

        Not just that it is unlikely that, or unknown whether, more than 50% of warming over the last century is ACO2 caused.

        If I’m not mistaken, then that is something new from you. I mean it seems that you are quite certain there. If I recall correctly, you previously felt that there is a non-negligible possibility that more than 50% of warming over the last century is attributable to AC02.

        I guess you still think it’s possible, but that it would be foolish to think it might be true?

        Looks like Mr. Monster is getting awfully small in your perspective.

      • The forcing change under BAU in the 21st century will be 2.5 times that in the 20th century, so even if it was (dubiously) only 50% then, it will be that much larger going forwards, and should be easily the dominant effect on climate.

      • Matthew R Marler

        Jim D: The audience clearly was not only the Marshall Institute members, especially the ones that asked questions. When one says he has been to Greenland and it is even worse than the climate scientists are saying, and another asks why she is only applying uncertainty to the consensus view and not her own, and another asks what her actual change to policy-making would be, it is a tough audience.

        Add to that it was the National Press Corps, and those lectures are frequently broadcast nationwide by NPR. I wonder if that one will be broadcast nationwide.

      • Have I created a monster by introducing with Jimmy Dee to this 1975 paper by Wally Broecker?

        The ideas are essentially right – as I keep saying. We have both natural variability and presumably some anthropogenic warming. Wally was wrong on the post 1975 detail. Natural warming kicked in in the 1976-1977 climate and turned down again in the 1998-2001 shift. These are chaotic shifts in the internal balance of the system in response to changes in control variables – solar UV and the polar annular modes I would suggest.

        I have not much clue about the earlier 20th century warming – TSI is not an explanation. Neither – btw – is sulphide cooling an adequate explanation of the mid century cooling.

        My working theory is that there is a solar amplification mechanism working through clouds and ocean and atmosphere circulation patterns. The current pattern is for cooling for 20 to 40 years from 2002. The solar amplification mechanism – the only real candidate for this vigorous decadal to centennial variability – suggests further cooling this century.

      • Matthew R Marler

        Jim D: The forcing change under BAU in the 21st century will be 2.5 times that in the 20th century, so even if it was (dubiously) only 50% then, it will be that much larger going forwards, and should be easily the dominant effect on climate.

        Since you are in your forecasting mood, maybe you could address some other aspects of the future:

        1. Over what time span will the concentration of CO2 double from its present value of about 400 ppm?

        2. Over what time span will the global mean temperature rise 1C?

        3. What will be the net change in rainfall in consequence of CO2 and temp increases by 2100?

        4. What will be the next effects of increased CO2 on agricultural and forest productivity, and other vegetation?

        Just curious. I sort of “keep score” on the evidence in a “sequential analysis” mode. For 1 I expect at least 150 years, and it may never happen as fossil fuel use declines (BAU) in the second half of the century.

        For 2 I have about 100 years.

        For 3, I have a net increase, but with much regional variability. In the US since 1950 the region between the Rockies and Appalachians experienced a net increase in max rainfall of about 7% (but the baseline varies throughout the region.)

        For 4, I think the evidence supports a net increase in vegetative net primary productivity.

      • I should modify this:

        ==> “So, then, you are saying it is “foolish” to think that more than 50% of the warming over the last century is attributable to anthropogenic CO2.”

        Obviously, It isn’t really warming over the last century, but warming over the past 5 or 6 decades or so, projected to a centennial scale.

        I would appreciate it if someone could tell me what sensitivity figure would equate to 50% of warming over the past 5 or 6 decades if projected to a centennial scale.

        Would the resulting number be included in Nic Lewis’ 90% CI that goes up to 3.0°C per doubling?

      • My 2.5 factor in forcing change came from just under 700 ppm by 2100, which is possible under moderate BAU. Your questions.
        1. I don’t know when it will reach 800 ppm. I predict that by the time we get to 500 ppm people will have realized the stupidity of CO2 emissions enough to prevent us ever reaching 800 ppm, and possibly we won’t reach 600 ppm either.
        2. If you mean 1 C over the 2000 temperature, that could happen around 2040 which only requires a very plausible 0.25 C per decade.
        3. Rainfall, I have no idea. Some areas will be severely dry, and others will have increased flooding.
        4. Agriculture, equally hard to predict. Lots of crop adaptation and moving around likely needed. Forests generally would be supported further into the Arctic areas where the tundra permafrost melts. This darkens albedo in another positive feedback, of course.

      • Jim D – Wally Broecker is abused enough around here by the water boiler. He says his 1975 paper embarrasses him. I think you need to search Google and figure out why he says that.

        Today Broecker is very concerned with CO2. He is not some moron holding out abrupt climate change in the manner seen here.

      • There are three steps in succession, Pekka, suggesting natural variability for all three, particularly since we have the 60 year cycle of the oceans in explanation. The slope of the three rises is identical, CO2 rising only in the last, suggesting a weak effect for AnthroCO2.
        =================

      • Judith –

        JimD makes a really interesting point:

        ==> “The forcing change under BAU in the 21st century will be 2.5 times that in the 20th century, so even if it was (dubiously) only 50% then, it will be that much larger going forwards, and should be easily the dominant effect on climate.”

        So apparently you are pretty much certain that the rate of anthropogenc CO2-caused warming over the past 5 or 6 decades would not = more than 50% of warming if projected on a centennial scale (so certain that it would be “foolish” to think otherwise)… but the effect that you do think is attributable to anthropogenic CO2 will obviously increase proportional to a greater rate of CO2 emissions.

        So then, since you don’t doubt that ACO2 affects the climate, you only doubt how much, it would seem that theoretically at some point in the future, if the rate of increase in emissions continues apace, you would agree that ACO2 would “dominate” climate? Can you give me a sense of when, according to your calculations, ACO2 emissions would dominate? In 200 years? 1,000 years? 10,000 years?

      • My guess(calculated) is never. The CO2 effect seems small and we haven’t that much fossil fuels. In comparison, the range of natural variability is much larger, and will dominate.
        =========================

      • kim –

        Thanks,

        ==> “My guess(calculated) is never. The CO2 effect seems small and we haven’t that much fossil fuels.”

        So you don’t doubt that there is an effect – which given that there is an rate of increase in emissions means that if continued in perpetuity it would eventually dominate. But your (calculated) guess is that we would run out before that would happen. So the question is, when do you calculate that we’ll run out? Based on that, you should be able to calculate a sensitivity range that would preclude “dominance” ever occurring.

        I’m wondering what that range would be? Would it fall into Lewis’ 90% CI? ‘Cause if so, then by extension, you might be calling him “foolish.”

        You’re a math guy/gal. It all goes back, then, to your calculations for when we’ll run out, and based on your calculation of when we’re going to run out, what sensitivity range would support your guess of “never?”

      • The BIG question, Judy, is explicated by millennial scale changes. To the extent the recovery from the LIA is one of these ‘cycles’, so natural, so will temperature trend follow, and there doesn’t seem to be deviation from this ‘natural rise’, neither in the temperature record, nor in sea level rise. I think the BIGGEST question is whether or not this ‘cycle’ has peaked, and we’re about to descend again.
        ==========

      • Desperately linear thinking, there. I can’t wait for Robert Ellison to come along and hole it below the waterline, and righteously.
        =============

      • ‘Perpetuity’, Joshua? Please, re-enter the real world. Max Anacker and others have demonstrated peak CO2 well under two doublings and anything like 1 degree C/doubling leaves AnthroCO2 effect weaker than natural variability.

        You pays your money and you takes your chances.
        ============

      • Speaking of desperate, Pekka, that is just an awfully poor answer to Judy. Review her comment and yours again. You don’t even address her point.
        ========================

      • kim –

        ==> “Desperately linear thinking, there.”

        Let’s just say theoretically. Obviously, to have your opinion, you must have done the calculations. So how about if you just share what they are?

        Even if there are sudden shifts, they must also occur on some time scale. So if you are arguing that a “never” conclusion is justified because of sudden shifts occurring before a linear progression would lead to “dominance” you must have some time scale in mind for those sudden shifts.

        Of course, you might also just throw up your hands and cry “chaos. There will be sudden shifts that are completely unpredictable.” But if so, then you can’t know that they wouldn’t occur before “dominance,” and of course also…..

        ==> ” I think the BIGGEST question is whether or not this ‘cycle’ has peaked, and we’re about to descend again.”

        wouldn’t seem to make much sense.

      • By the way, Joshua, I’m kind of proud of you. You are demonstrating real understanding of the question of attribution.

        Let me put it this way. The more you attribute warming to man, the colder we would now be without man’s effect, and we have only so much more hydrocarbons left to release. You had better hope the temperature recovery has been dominated by nature.
        ======================

      • I take it back, Joshua. Your 8:25 still demonstrates massive confusion. And Pekka just comes across as disingenuous.
        =============

      • kim –

        ==> “Max Anacker and others have demonstrated peak CO2 well under two doublings and anything like 1 degree C/doubling leaves AnthroCO2 effect weaker than natural variability.”

        So you’re saying that there is no uncertainty w/r/t Max’s calculations?

        That kind of just seals the deal then, doesn’t it? Why aren’t SWIRLCAREs just making Max’s argument and leaving it at that. There’s no chance of damaging climate change – because we’re certain to run out before that might happen. Cut and dried. No need to mention uncertainty.

        Of course, if I’m not mistaken, Lewis extends his 90% CI to 3.0°C. So, given the rate of recent warming projected to a centennial scale, would a rate of 3.0°C dominate before we run out according to Max’s unquestionable calculations? Or is Lewis “foolish” according to Judith’s logic?

      • Ponder this, J. Ignore the millennial at your perennial.
        ============

      • It all comes down to sensitivity, thus attribution, and millennial scale natural variability, about neither of which do we know very much. On present evidence, the CO2 effect is weak.
        ======================

      • Pierre-Normand

        Judith Curry wrote: “The BIG question is why the pause 1940-1976 is so much warmer than the pause prior to 1910. The answer is NOT AGW.”

        The change in greenhouse gas forcing from 1900 to 1950 is just about the same as the change in solar forcing over the same period. Each one of those accounts for 0.2°C of warming and there indeed occurred about 0.4ºC of warming. So, that would seem to answer your question. The change in solar forcing from 1950 until now is essentially nil, while the change in greenhouse gas forcing fully accounts for the further 0.7°C warming (while ENSO + solar accounts for the recent slowdown).

      • You see that, moshe? Joshua thinks I’m a math type. Out of the mouths of babes.
        ===========

      • relatively speaking, kim, relatively speaking.

      • Matthew R Marler

        JimD: that could happen around 2040 which only requires a very plausible 0.25 C per decade.

        Is 0.25 C per decade from 2000 to 2040 plausible given the record of 2000 – 2014? Even if 2014 ends as “the warmest year on record” the record over the 15 year span is nearly flat.

      • The land rate since 1980 has already averaged 0.25 C per decade so it is not a stretch to apply that to global temperatures going forwards.

      • Matthew R Marler

        Jim D: The land rate since 1980 has already averaged 0.25 C per decade so it is not a stretch to apply that to global temperatures going forwards.

        For a claim of close to 0.8C total land mean temp increase since 1980, I would like to see a reference.

      • Judith –

        So someone has answered my question – VTG over at ATTP:

        Finally, and interestingly, if you plug the TCR numbers from the paper in and compare to actual temperature rise*

        the you get

        TCR %Anthro warming (GHG only)
        1.05 49%
        1.33 62%
        1.80 84%

        So her own analysis contradicts her statement that there is a “vigorous debate” about “whether the warming since 1950 has been dominated by human causes” – it turns out she actually agrees with everyone else that it has been!

        So, if VTG’s calculations are correct, then it is as I speculated above: You are saying that both you and Nic are “fooling [your]selves”

        we are fooling ourselves to think that CO2 control knob really influences climate on these decadal or even century time scales,”

        Even changing the term from “influence” to “dominate.” Even taking into consideration a misstatement and clarification, it seems that your public response to the question was quite misleading w/r/t even your own scientific viewpoint.

        Unless VTG’s math was wrong, of course. Was his math wrong?

    • That’s of course nonsense Jim D, Dr.Curry always gets relative softball treatment from skeptics because she doesn’t appear angry and radical. It’s why society sinks, conservatives are content with spineless middling while left wing fanatics never forget the cause…..global socialism:

      http://www.climatedepot.com/2014/09/21/capitalism-in-crosshairs-as-socialism-promoted-at-opening-event-of-people-climate-march/

      • She seemed a bit angry at the Greenland remark, where her response was mostly “Climate is always changing!” which is a pretty good catch-all phrase to use when in doubt.

    • Matthew R Marler

      Jim D, maybe you were thinking of this: http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/

      From that, I do think it is a “stretch” to anticipate a 1 C warming of global mean temp from 2000 to 2040. But I guess it isn’t impossible if the “hiatus” ends soon enough and the subsequent change is dramatic enough warming.

    • To the extent the recovery from the LIA is one of these ‘cycles’, so natural

      I see a lot of hand waving about these supposed natural cycles as an explanation for warming, but little evidence for any of them. Anyone who suggest that they are happening should at least give them a name, so we know which “cycle” we are talking about.

      • “Natural variation” isn’t all about cycles. It’s about how, in (almost) any hyper-complex non-linear system (HCNLS), any particular metric tends to wander around in a pseudo-random fashion. Sometimes it looks like “cycles”, sometimes it doesn’t. Over any finite time-scale, it will be indistinguishable from the sum of a bunch of “cycles”, even when no cyclical “forcing” is present. (Thus allowing Fourier analysis.)

        Now, in any non-degenerate HCNLS, there’s a tendency for such activity to be self-similar between scales: variation on longer scales will be similar (in many ways) to variation on shorter scales. Which means if you observe the variation on small scales, you can make predictions about variation on long scales. Predictions which tend to be correct. But not always.

        So, in looking at the “climate”, anybody familiar with how such HCNLS‘s work will treat the existence of “natural variation” as a default assumption. OTOH, people familiar with only linear systems will tend to assume that “perturbations” are additive, pushing the system away from some sort of “equilibrium”, to which it will try to return. That “equilibrium” represents their default assumption.

        But “equilibrium” is a myth, when studying HCNLS‘s.

      • Hmmm. Helpful, AK. Sailors are sealing bulkheads.
        ======

      • The warming since the LIA low point (~1600 – 1700) to the mid 20th century, when the postulated AGW became significant is clearly natural.

        The Holocene in general shows both a long-term trend (cooling) and millennial and centennial/multidecadal time-scale variability.

      • “Natural variation” is even more ephemeral than saying that it is due to cycles. What “natural variation” are you referring to that is responsible for the warming?

      • @Joseph…

        You’re just trying to waste my time.

  38. Given that EPA has extended the comment period on its coal plant attack regulations, my blog post on how to comment seems timely:
    http://www.coalblog.org/2014/07/30/how-to-comment-on-epas-proposed-coal-killing-co2-control-rules/

  39. Here’s a site of interest:

    https://www.data.gov/climate/

  40. Koonins editorial may be the most important of these. It appears to be a harbinger of the committees findings.

    • A fan of *MORE* discourse

      Koonins’ editorial comprises compelling reasons to *SUSTAIN* NASA/NOAA/EPA investments in satellite altimetry (rising sea-level and ocean-currents), gravimetry (melting polar ice-caps and ocean-currents), carbon dioxide (residence-times), and ozone studies, and to *EXPAND* NASA/NOAA/EPA participation in aerosol studies and Deep ARGO.

      Hopefully the science-respecting wing of the Republican Party — does it still exist? — will be on-board with these programs.

      That these global-scale climate-science programs are a tremendously *WISE* investment is apparent to *EVERYONE*, eh Climate Etc readers?

      Common sense Knowledge beats ignorance … and *THAT’S* why denialist institutions consistently seek to curtail investments in science.

      Note  James Hansen has strenuously advocated all of these investments, consistently through many decades.

      Good on `yah, James Hansen!

      \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • Yes, Trenberth’s often-quoted “travesty” was the lack of data to pin down the global energy budget as accurately as he would like.

    • “Koonins editorial may be the most important of these. It appears to be a harbinger of the committees findings.

      Agreed, this could have a big impact. Finally, one of these prestigious professional societies stepping back and saying, “Hey, we’re not so sure after all” is something the consensus mongers won’t be able to ignore. Konnin himself is highly respected based on what I can find.. (NYU refers to him as a renowned physicist. http://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2012/04/23/nyu-names-renowned-physicist-steven-koonin-director-of-new-center-for-urban-science-and-progress.html)

      And there’s more than a tinge of delicious irony that he was involved with the Obama administration.

    • Fanny as usual here tries to pull the old trick beloved of intellectually bankrupt alarmist bigots, by pretending there are only CAGW consensus truthers and deniers, no skeptics/thinkers. We ignore his ignoring and continue.

      Most hilarious all is his would-be suggestion that skeptics don’t want measurements! As if the stooge Consensus likes measurements rather than inept expensive models, that nevetheless do their masters bidding and produce the *politically* correct answers.

      > *THAT’S*
      > why denialist institutions consistently seek to curtail
      > investments in science.

      No, that’s just the ususal strawman put up by blinkered, lying, politically-motivated alarmists. What Fanny calls “anti-science” is of course anti-CORRUPT-science — the bedrock of the stooge Consensus. As the Democrats as a whole love so much.

      > Note James Hansen has strenuously advocated all of these
      > investments, consistently through many decades.
      > Good on `yah, James Hansen!

      Ah right, so the only sensible and honest thing he he ever did is recommend is what every skeptic does. So please, Fanny, get get your lying mouth off his John Thomas and browneye, and get a life. Perhaps even take an interest in science for its own sake – a revolutuionary concept for a politico like you, I know, but I recommend it nevertheless.

  41. I’m not sure those are sit ups.
    https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/slide15.png?w=750&h=563

    I believe he is tired of hearing about global warming and is covering his ears.

  42. Denizens might be interested in advancing science:

    Viewing penguins on a screen from the comfort of your sofa actually sets you up in good stead to take part in a new citizen science project run out of the University of Oxford, which is recruiting “armchair penguinologists” to count the number of creatures in colonies in the Antartic.

    “Penguin Watch,” hosted on the Zooniverse citizen science platform, asks volunteers to identify penguins in 200,000 photographs. The pictures have been taken by over 100 automated cameras in remote areas that are hard for researchers to reach.

    http://motherboard.vice.com/read/i-do-armchair-penguinology-for-science-and-so-can-you

    • John Vonderlin

      Willard,
      Living in California, I’m afraid I might be breaking the law by giving these paid researchers the benefit of my free time in competing with other grant-seeking researchers. The following story in the news this week illustrates the danger I might face. ““California has a state law that prohibits for-profit companies from using volunteer labor.” That spelled doom for little Westover Winery in Castro Valley, which cleared around $11,000 in profits a year for its owning couple and used unpaid volunteers, many of them amateurs who wanted to learn the wine business. The state hit the business with $115,000 in fines and wiped it out, to the unhappiness of some of the displaced volunteers.”
      And even if it is not a crime in Oxford’s area, I’m afraid California’s felony conspiracy law might apply to my actions: As stated in California Penal Code 182 PC, a criminal conspiracy takes place when one
      1.agrees with one or more other people to commit a crime, and
      2.one of them commits an overt act in furtherance of that agreement.
      Any member of the conspiracy may commit the overt act…which doesn’t need to be criminal in and of itself. But does need to be performed before the commission of the agreed upon offense.”
      I think I’ll just play it safe this weekend and instead watch grown men running around with an odd-shaped ball, maniacally smashing into each other before they head home to beat various family members.

  43. Tomorrow is the “Great Climate March.”
    http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20140919/making-great-climate-march-last-more-just-one-day

    Of course we will get conflicting reports about the numbers. Still, this is not trivial, although most denizens here seem to be oblivious to what is actually happening in the world outside. Funny that.

    • No, I agree with you. If they get 50-100,000 that’s a big deal from a public relations standpoint. Going to be a splashy photo in the Monday NYT’s.

    • Matthew R Marler

      David Wojick: Of course we will get conflicting reports about the numbers. Still, this is not trivial, although most denizens here seem to be oblivious to what is actually happening in the world outside. Funny that.

      I do not infer a lack of awareness from a lack of comment. Will the “Great” climate march attract as many people as an average NFL football game?

      Also, will the marchers embarrass their cause with their usual display of conspicuous fossil fuel consumption?

      • Matthew R Marler

        Here at 9:50 PDT, I read that the London march had 10,000 show up.

      • Matthew R Marler

        Update: Organizers, using data provided by 35 crowd spotters and analyzed by a mathematician from Carnegie Mellon University, estimated that 311,000 people marched the route.The signs that marchers held were as varied as the movement: “There Is No Planet B,” “Forests Not for Sale” and “Jobs, Justice, Clean Energy.”

        To me, that sounds like a good turnout.

      • That’s a lot of climate activists. They must have needed to change a light bulb.

      • 35 spotters plus MATH. It’s gotta be right, see the 3 significant digits?
        ==================

      • Matthew R Marler

        Kim: It’s gotta be right, see the 3 significant digits?

        You can imagine how it must have hurt them to round to 3.

    • Will they poop on cop cars, get really stoned, and assault the women?

    • Please, Gaia, let Gore march.
      =========

    • In the antipodes, it’s Great Climate September. Not yet stinking hot or raining torrentially.

  44. AK, in case you didn’t notice, any statements I make on a blog are not PUBLISHED, and I didn’t make the mistake of putting it in print where future atmospheric physicists will chuckle over the assertion. The O-Man and Chief Taz have used the same formulation and we know whut kind of kranks they are, eh?

    I have pointed out that this is simply a lie. My only reference to B-E was that it was not B-E juggling wot caused the notch as webbly insisted. B-E condensates may form in super dense conditions. Do these apply to star matter? Don’t know. Does it have any relevance to the iron sun theory? Don’t know. Is the iron sun theory wrong? Don’t know. Unlike webbly I don’t know a lot. Is it relevant to cloud nucleation at low temps and high surfactant load? Probably not. It is really just super dense posturing from webbly and now Jimmy Dee I see. .

    I noticed earlier something to do with Sydney tides and ENSO?

    Taz hates it when somebody discovers important results in his own backyard:

    http://contextearth.com/2014/09/16/using-tidal-gauges-to-estimate-enso/

    I almost uncovered the ,a href=”http://www.smh.com.au/national/terror-raids-the-rising-fear-in-sydneys-suburbs-20140919-10jctz.html”>terrorists while I was at it :)

    I almost thought that there might be a connection between Sydney tide gauges and ENSO through the east Australian current. There seems nothing g in the literature. Against my better judgment – I did a quick run through. It is not the tide gauge data – it is some strange concoction fitted to the SOI apparently. I predicted incompetence and am not disappointed.

    What we have with webbly is 10th rate science on a lonely blogospheric outpost – combined with a truly astonishing malice and resentment.

    It all comes back to the groupthink dynamic. There is far more relevant science than webbly’s silly little sideshow – but anything not consistent with the groupthink memes is cognitively dissonant. Dynamic sensitivity – climate shifts – the impossibility of climate prediction – practical and pragmatic mitigation. It is all evidence – it seems – of a perfidious moral lack. Any lie, any defamation is fair play in defense of the memes. Even uncertainty is a threat to the equanimity of the poor little things. They are not arguing from a full deck.

  45. Let me fix the formatting.

    AK, in case you didn’t notice, any statements I make on a blog are not PUBLISHED, and I didn’t make the mistake of putting it in print where future atmospheric physicists will chuckle over the assertion. The O-Man and Chief Taz have used the same formulation and we know whut kind of kranks they are, eh?

    I have pointed out that this is simply a lie. My only reference to B-E was that it was not B-E juggling wot caused the notch as webbly insisted. B-E condensates may form in super dense conditions. Do these apply to star matter? Don’t know. Does it have any relevance to the iron sun theory? Don’t know. Is the iron sun theory wrong? Don’t know. Unlike webbly I don’t know a lot. Is it relevant to cloud nucleation at low temps and high surfactant load? Probably not. It is really just super dense posturing from webbly and now Jimmy Dee I see. .

    I noticed earlier something to do with Sydney tides and ENSO?

    Taz hates it when somebody discovers important results in his own backyard:

    http://contextearth.com/2014/09/16/using-tidal-gauges-to-estimate-enso/

    I almost uncovered the ,a href=”http://www.smh.com.au/national/terror-raids-the-rising-fear-in-sydneys-suburbs-20140919-10jctz.html”>terrorists while I was at it :)

    I almost thought that there might be a connection between Sydney tide gauges and ENSO through the east Australian current. There seems nothing g in the literature. Against my better judgment – I did a quick run through. It is not the tide gauge data – it is some strange concoction fitted to the SOI apparently. I predicted incompetence and am not disappointed.

    What we have with webbly is 10th rate science on a lonely blogospheric outpost – combined with a truly astonishing malice and resentment.

    It all comes back to the groupthink dynamic. There is far more relevant science than webbly’s silly little sideshow – but anything not consistent with the groupthink memes is cognitively dissonant. Dynamic sensitivity – climate shifts – the impossibility of climate prediction – practical and pragmatic mitigation. It is all evidence – it seems – of a perfidious moral lack. Any lie, any defamation is fair play in defense of the memes. Even uncertainty is a threat to the equanimity of the poor little things. They are not arguing from a full deck.

  46. steven, as I said, the criterion is the number of particles that have identical quantum numbers. It is very hard to get molecules into these degenerate states because they have those extra degrees of freedom that single-particle bosons don’t. For molecules they have to be in a state where they are hardly moving which must be at only a few K, if even that, because it takes very little energy to rotate them with one quantum of angular momentum, and at normal temperatures they have many such states to distribute over.

    Bosons are bosons and fermions are fermions. The difference is the Pauli Exclusion Principle. Does Jimmy Dee have another silly narrative? He should really learn some basics first.

    • Water molecules have rotation lines in the microwave wavelengths, which is how microwave ovens work. The energy for these wavelengths corresponds to temperatures down to a fraction of a Kelvin. At 100 K these molecules have so many rotation states available that having any two in the same state has a vanishingly small probability, and you should use classical Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics for distinguishable particles otherwise you would be wrong.

      • What Jimmy Dee is saying is that microwaves cause water molecules to vibrate. Energy and frequency is related via the Planck constant. Higher frequencies have higher energies and are emitted at a higher temperature.

        A weird odd narrative – strangely distorted – that suggests that Bose-Einstein statistics happen only in Bose-Einstein condensates – not true.

        ://watertechbyrie.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/be-stats.png

        And that B-E condensates are at all relevant. Not merely utterly unproven but fantastically misguided.

      • Let me try that one again.

        I suggest you move on Jimmy Dee – because this is just too silly.

      • Rob Ellison, you misunderstood. Try again. At, for example 100 K, do you think that all the H2O molecules in any proximity are distinguishable by their rotational quantum numbers or not? Do you think BE statistics applies to distinguishable particles or not?

      • Taz doesn’t get it. He just spins out of control when you push the right buttons.

        Photons straightforwardly obey B-E statistics because a photon, having no mass, is indistinguishable from another photon. And the fact that h𝜈 is often around kT, the degeneracy conditions are easily met.

        But for massed particles, the situation is completely different.

      • I understand perfectly Jimmy Dee – amongst your many errors in this – and I did link a very nice little youtube presentation to enable some progress – I that you mistake integer spin for quantized rotation.

        ‘One essential parameter for classification of particles is their “spin” or intrinsic angular momentum. Half-integer spin fermions are constrained by the Pauli exclusion principle whereas integer spin bosons are not. The electron is a fermion with electron spin 1/2.

        The spin classification of particles determines the nature of the energy distribution in a collection of the particles. Particles of integer spin obey Bose-Einstein statistics, whereas those of half-integer spin behave according to Fermi-Dirac statistics.’ http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/particles/spinc.html

        That fermions form a Fermi Gas and bosons form a Bose-Einstein condensate at low temperatures is still not relevant to anything of any interest. Like webbly you are merely parading your ignorance and prejudice.

      • Rob Ellison, you only get BE statistics when you have limited quantum states available to your bosons, which does not happen at normal temperatures or even 100 K. To even consider BE statistics, significant numbers of the molecules have to be identical in their whole quantum description including their rotation state which is not the same as spin. These things are just too macro in degrees of freedom available for that to even happen.

      • JimD, you are completely missing the gist of possible applications of B-E statistics.

        “The evolution of many complex systems, including the World Wide Web, business, and citation networks, is encoded in the dynamic web describing the interactions between the system’s constituents. Despite their irreversible and nonequilibrium nature these networks follow Bose statistics and can undergo Bose–Einstein condensation. Addressing the dynamical properties of these nonequilibrium systems within the framework of equilibrium quantum gases predicts that the “first-mover-advantage,” “fit-get-rich(FGR),” and “winner-takes-all” phenomena observed in competitive systems are thermodynamically distinct phases of the underlying evolving networks” Wikipedia
        What you are doing is the equivalent of saying Boltzmann’s entrophy equation can’t be used in information systems. For clouds, -43C would be analogous to absolute zero as an example. The k in kT is R/Na so a :packet of supercooled liquid water or supersaturate water vapor could be an indistinguishable “particle”.

        Taking everything to literally can really strangle creativity though it does make for some great flame wars.;

      • ‘The Einstein-Bose and Fermi-Dirac distributions differ from the classical Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution because the particles they describe are indistinguishable.

        Particles are considered to be indistinguishable if their wave packets overlap significantly. This kind of consideration comes from the fact that all particles have characteristic wave properties according to the DeBroglie hypothesis . Two particles can be considered to be distinguishable if their separation is large compared to their DeBroglie wavelength.

        For example, the condition of distinguishability is met by molecules in an ideal gas under ordinary conditions. For oxygen gas at STP, the molecules have a separation on the order of 3 nm and DeBroglie wavelengths on the order of 0.03 nm, a factor of a thousand smaller. On the other hand, two electrons in the first shell of an atom are inherently indistinguishable because of the large overlap of their wavefunctions.’ http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/quantum/disene.html

        Ultra low temperatures are not required for Bose-Einstein statistics to apply – although it is required for a condensate. This seems to be the fundamental misunderstanding from the peanut gallery.

        The suggesting is that Boltzmann statistics apply generally to cloud nucleation – and that in some circumstances it may behave more like Bose-Einstein.

        It may be purely statistical for all I know.

        ‘Viewed as a pure probability distribution, the Bose–Einstein distribution has found application in other fields:

        In recent years, Bose Einstein statistics have also been used as a method for term weighting in information retrieval. The method is one of a collection of DFR (“Divergence From Randomness”) models,[5] the basic notion being that Bose Einstein statistics may be a useful indicator in cases where a particular term and a particular document have a significant relationship that would not have occurred purely by chance.

        The evolution of many complex systems, including the World Wide Web, business, and citation networks, is encoded in the dynamic web describing the interactions between the system’s constituents. Despite their irreversible and nonequilibrium nature these networks follow Bose statistics and can undergo Bose–Einstein condensation.’ Wikepedia

        This discussion is informed by half arsed misunderstanding of the issues and motivated by having a personal axe to grind.

      • Rob Ellison, in usual form you quote something that agrees with what I have been saying all along, and then go on to conclude the opposite. Distinguishability is a very hard thing to remove. It takes extremely controlled conditions for molecules, most likely near 0 K.

      • Sorry – they used Boltzmann statistics for the derivation but suggested that Bose-Einstein may be appropriate in some circumstances.

        That it is not at normal atmospheric temperature a Bose-Einstein condensate is not now or ever has been a relevant factor.

        Although we do seem to get a ‘boson peak’ on a 20K substrate.

        e.g http://www.researchgate.net/publication/30412378_The_first_observation_of_Boson_peak_from_water_vapour_deposited_amorphous_ice

        The circumstances included low temperature and high surfactant load. But the Boltzman formulation seems more relevant generally – which is what they do.

        The real question is how well the formulation does against reality. You remember reality don’t you Jimmy Dee?

      • The problem is that Taz is trying to play catch-up, while we learned all this when we took courses in Statistical Mechanics when we were still in school — so we understood the limits of applicability of B-E already way back when.

        Watch Taz spin.

      • There is no statistical mechanics of climate. Boltzmann is used to derive the Planck function for a blackbody which in turn can be used to derive S-B. The latter suggest a negative feedback with exponentially increasing (to the power of 4) emissions with increasing temperature. This is so far from being a complete description of climate that it is laugable.

        I have studied maths, physics and chemistry amongst other things. I have read independently Einstein, Planck, Hawking, Everett, Feynman, Lorenz – the big ideas. Time dilation, chaos, quantum entanglement, wave/particle duality, Schrodinger waves.

        Webbly is a total pratt who imagines that the formation of a Fermi Gas or a Bose-Einstein depending on the allowable occupation on energy states in accordance with the Pauli exclusion principle is conceptually difficult.

        Here’s what you need to know webbly – you obviously need a refresher.

        As for the generalization of classical nucleation theory – about which he has not the slightest clue.

        https://judithcurry.com/2014/09/19/week-in-review-27/#comment-630967

        What is evident is that he lacked any substance, more than the merest grasp of reality and was driven by personal animosity. A deep seated resentment expressed in the clearest terms and without either the balls to address his superficial whines in the appropriate post or to resile from his stupendous and embarrassing meltdown.

        I repeat again Judy – why do I need to put up with this type of comment again and again year after year? Nothing ever changes. There is no purpose other than to disparage, disrupt and divert. Seriously – what is the story?

      • Taz bragged:


        I have studied maths, physics and chemistry amongst other things. I have read independently Einstein, Planck, Hawking, Everett, Feynman, Lorenz – the big ideas. Time dilation, chaos, quantum entanglement, wave/particle duality, Schrodinger waves.

        Pomposity is favored by the AGW deniers, because they have nothing else to lean on.

      • Matthew R Marler

        Jim D: Rob Ellison, you only get BE statistics when you have limited quantum states available to your bosons, which does not happen at normal temperatures or even 100 K.

        As shown by the examples that Rob Ellison and I quoted from wikipedia, entities have B-E distributions when the empirical evidence shows that they have B-E distributions. It was the empirical evidence that led to the B-E derivation in the first place; the reconsideration of which “states” had equal probabilities led to the investigation of how that might be modeled.

        The germs of the cloud condensation nuclei do not “have” any of the distributions that have been recommended for them. They are heterogeneous in size, shape, and composition, which makes thinking about them even more difficult than if they were homogeneous (as modeled.) Since pure ratiocination has not produced a sufficiently accurate distribution for them yet, it’s possible that a sufficiently accurate distribution will be found, if at all, by trial-and-error fitting. The B-E distribution is as reasonable an alternative to try as any other. Indeed, in this whole discussion, none other has been suggested for a try.

      • I answered to steven somewhere else on this page that, to the extent that their delta R really is an energy difference between two energy states (and I don’t know if it is), each much larger than kT, B-E is not appropriate no matter how small that difference. It can only be used for population distributions.

      • JD, the difference between you and the apologists for Curry’s B-E cloud nucleation theory is that you actually have studied statistical mechanics, and it shows !

      • With webbly any semblance of rational discourse goes out the window.

        He accuses me of playing catch up in something that is marginally relevant – then accuses me of boasting when I explain that I have some interest in the big ideas of physics.

        We all know about the empty braggadocio of webnutcolonoscope – the aggression and insults – his 10th rate unscience on a blog site that no one ever visits – the substance less commentary – the unfounded aspersions – the superficial and profoundly eccentric assertions.

        Why is such an empty vessel permitted to pollute the site like this so frequently and so persistently?

      • Matthew R Marler

        WegHubTelescope: JD, the difference between you and the apologists for Curry’s B-E cloud nucleation theory is that you actually have studied statistical mechanics, and it shows !

        It is useful now and then to recall exactly what K&C wrote: two half-page suggestions that the B-E distribution might be used. And it is useful to recall K’s comment, which pointed out that there was no accurate model for the nucleation germ growth. You would not want to fall for the false idea that someone actually knows more than K&C about the germ nucleation growth statistics.

        For most phenomena where statistical models (or probability models, if you prefer) are used, the mathematical derivation of the “correct” probability distribution has almost never been either adequate or necessary to establish the most accurate distribution to use. The exact mathematics works only for a few select systems, mostly in laboratories, and for everything else some combination of heuristic simplification and empirical model fitting has been necessary.

      • > It is useful now and then to recall exactly what K&C wrote:

        That would be great.

        Please do.

      • Matthew R Marler

        WebHubTelescope: Pomposity is favored by the AGW deniers, because they have nothing else to lean on.

        Ha ha ha ha ha. Coming from Paul Pukite, that is funny.

      • WebHubTelescope

        Marler wrote:


        someone actually knows more than K&C about the germ nucleation growth statistics.

        This is not dreamed about by climate scientists but is actually measured via in situ lab experiments by material scientists and physicists. Like the stuff I used to work on.

        Do you not comprehend the sweeping statements that they are making?

        That B-E statistics presumption would be laughed out of the building in any condensed matter physics environment. Do experiments or do molecular dynamics simulations would be the first step. One does not just assume B-E statistics in cloud nucleation and put that in a textbook. That is so ridiculous it is funny.

    • … a Bose-Einstein (condensate) depending on the allowable occupation…

  47. I think Koonin’s report as chair of the AP society’s committee is the most realistic I have read so far on climate. However it is not their final report which hopefully will spell out where the R&D dollar should be spent.

    We now know that there are some 50 ( different? ) models with some support from the IPCC. I suspect that they all are basically variations on the Hansen theme, although transparency is not a feature of the models.

    My own view remains that we need to explore further the role of carbon isotopes in energy absorption by CO2. They could explain the on/off behaviour of global climate, that and the time taken by the oceans to respond to atmospheric temperature. See my web site underlined above.

    • Alexander: “However it is not their final report which hopefully will spell out where the R&D dollar should be spent.”

      Koonin’s committee is not working on a report, but rather the APS Climate Statement. It will probably only lay out the status of climate science, and probably will not be much different than the WSJ piece. However that piece does lay out some deficiencies in the science that could be used for a roadmap, for future climate science expenditures. He mentions the need to improve observational capabilities and the need to better understand feedbacks and the oceans.

      • ‘Better understand feedbacks and the oceans.’ Synonymous
        fer ‘ observational data lacking fer that pesky man-made human warming.’

        O/t. RS, I have the Tononi book ‘ u recommended, ‘Voyage
        from the Brain to the Soul.’ Thx, makng the voyage now.

        bts .

      • Beth: Right on. It appears he is saying that we need greater understanding of feedbacks and oceans through improved observational capability.

        Hope you like the book; about the brain,written like a novel. I think it will be most enjoyable to you and others with a love for literature.

      • Richard,
        The book is wonderful, including production values, print,
        paper, images. Worthy of inclusion in the Library of Alexandria.
        bts.

  48. Dear Dr. Curry,
    Thank you for the link to Steven Koonin’s essay. It is incredibly important as you said, I am sharing it with others.

  49. David L. Hagen

    Ig Noble Prizes 2014
    How far has “climate science” descended?
    ARCTIC SCIENCE PRIZE [NORWAY, GERMANY]: Eigil Reimers and Sindre Eftestøl, for testing how reindeer react to seeing humans who are disguised as polar bears.

    REFERENCE: “Response Behaviors of Svalbard Reindeer towards Humans and Humans Disguised as Polar Bears on Edgeøya,” Eigil Reimers and Sindre Eftestøl, Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, vol. 44, no. 4, 2012, pp. 483-9.

    WHO ATTENDED THE CEREMONY: Eigil Reimers, Sindre Eftestøl
    Abstract

    Due to observed interactions between Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) and polar bears (Ursus maritimus) during field work on Edgeøya, Svalbard, we measured response distances for reindeer from a stalking polar bear and improvised five approaches from a person disguised as a polar bear for comparison with human encounters. The alert, flight initiation and escape distances were 1.6, 2.5 and 2.3 times longer, respectively, when Svalbard reindeer were encountered by a person disguised as a polar bear compared to a person in dark hiking gear. Population increase of polar bears on Svalbard and decrease in sea-ice cover in the Arctic region during summer probably results in more frequent interactions with reindeer on the archipelago. Similar reindeer response behavior from encounters with a polar bear and persons disguised as polar bears indicate a predator-prey relationship between the two species on Edgeøya.

  50. Read Koonin. The rabid alarmists are hysterically throwing themselves on the pyre which will soon become the ash heap of history.
    ==========

  51. JC says “The BIG question is why the pause 1940-1976 is so much warmer than the pause prior to 1910. The answer is NOT AGW. So the key question is convincing why the mechanism causing the warming between the two earlier pauses was not operational in the warming between the two latter pauses.”

    Long-term records from Greenland and other places show warmings similar to 1910-1940 throughout the millennium, followed by coolings. This one wasn’t followed by a cooling, as Broecker indicated, because by then CO2 was already starting to take effect, so a cooling became a pause, and then as the CO2 effect became stronger more warming was added, even without any hint of a solar forcing increase. This is Broecker’s 1975 graphic. Probably larger natural variation than actually occurred and a predicted drop to a minimum that may be too early, but with the CO2 effect separated out.

    • Do you know what sensitivity he used?
      ================

      • 0.3 C for 10% which works out to 2.2 C per doubling, which is why it works out so well, because in retrospect this is the effective warming per increase. He also predicted emission rates well and estimated 50% would stay in the atmosphere, also not bad.

      • Jim D, I’m not even sure what you’re actually testing there.

        Typically, when we are testing for the existence of a knee-point, we break the data into two equal length but non-overlapping intervals. For example, if we wanted to test whether 2000 were a knee point, the longest period of time we can look at is [2000,2015) or roughly 15 years.

        So you’d compare [1985,2000) to [2000,2015). If I do this I find:

        SERIES 1985-2000 2000-2015
        CRUTEM3 0.294 0.006
        NCDC 0.217 0.046
        HadCRUT 0.227 0.037
        GISTEMP 0.211 0.059
        HadCRUT+C&W Krig 0.232 0.101
        HadCRUT+C&W Merra 0.230 0.092

        The trends are in °C/decade.

        If I compute the uncertainty in the trends using a Monte Carlo analysis that realistic simulates natural variability, and apply a one-sided test (we are testing whether it is “slowing down”), for all of thees major surface temperature series, I find that all of the series show a changes in slope post 2000. For HadCRUT, CRUTEMP and NCDC, these changes are significant at better than the 95% CL, and for GISTEMP and HadCRUT + C&W, they are better than the 90% CL.

        What this almost certainly means is there is natural variability at play (rather than anything wrong with the assumption that an increase in atmospheric CO2 would tend to warm the planet). It also means this natural variability is larger than many people had anticipated prior to say 2005, when the warming was described as “unstoppable”. But that doesn’t just affect the interpretation of the data post-2000, it also has implication that part of the warming from 1980-2000 could be due (and likely is due) to natural variability as well.

        It’s been noted on this thread, that the period circa 1915-1945 (and as well the prior warming period circa 1855-1885) is dominated by natural variability. It’s a plausible suggestion that there might be a similar magnitude of natural warming say from 1975-2005. That could indicate that as much as 2/3s of the warming since 1975 is due to superimposed natural variability.

        If you detrend based on an assumed periodic variation of 60-years (the “AMO”), you find this:

        If I fit the interval [1980,2000), I find a slope of 0.165 °C/decade with the original series and 0.04 °C/decade with the one with the “AMO” subtracted out. This reduction in trend is significant at better than the 95% CL.

        Now, we can’t rule out that this recent “knee-point” is due to an other explanation ( 2 1/2 cycles isn’t enough to rule out that the 60-year oscillation is spurious). Some of the explanations given, amount to unphysical curve fitting, so I don’t find them plausible.

        But if as much as 2/3s of the recent warming is explained by natural variation, obviously this has important policy ramifications.

      • Here is the link to the graphic. Apparently I haven’t quite mastered how to put in-lines into Judith Curry’s blog yet:

        https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4520911/Climate/60Yr/hadcrut4.60y.compare.pdf

      • Thanks, C. Lucid.
        ========

      • Carrick, if you make your image a .bmp, .png or .gif file, WordPress will embed it so it’s visible in your comment. I’m pretty sure some other types will embed as well, but I don’t know which ones.

      • You need a title or something between the anchor tag and its close. Pull up the comments feed and look at some that worked.

      • Carrick, I am not sure which post you replied to, but how would you test the significance of a deviation from a long-term trend like this? I am not convinced it is doing anything it hasn’t done several times before in this warming period.
        http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1985/mean:12/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1985/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1985/trend/offset:0.1/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1985/trend/offset:-0.1

      • Brandon—I’ll try it out here:

      • (Yup that worked.. too simple.)

        Jim D, I linked to the wrong sub-sub-thread. This is the comment I was referencing.

        What I do is use a Fourier-based approach to model the internal variability of the data. Lucia uses an AR-based approach, and gets similar ranges of uncertainty.

        But the issue you raise is a good one–can we see how typical this knee point is?

        I went back and looked at this question, and the only period where was bigger since 1900 was in 1942, I checked with land-only as well as land+ocean, and the peak is the same year. Here’s the figure I generated:

        (HadCRUT gets very noisy prior to 1900, due to the paucity of data, so I clip it off at 1900.)

        The year you selected, 1975, corresponds to a positive “knee-point” (an acceleration). The last time this happened since 1900, was in 1910.

        Note that the frequency of these occurrences is too large to easily be explained by random fluctuations. Looking at the distribution of “knee-point index”, what I found was a non-Gaussian looking distribution.

        If the knee-points are driven by random-fluctuations, you should see a “Gaussian-like” distribution centered around the most likely value. Instead, what I saw here was a “double-peaked” distribution.

        This is symptomatic of an underlying oscillatory behavior, including the interval between adjacent maxima and adjacent minima.

        Again, though you’d like to have more than 2 1/2 cycles of observations, so the interpretation in terms oscillatory behavior rather than random fluctuations should be viewed with caution.

    • By the way, Jim D, have you read Koonin’s essay? I recommend it.
      ==============

      • I commented above. To me, it looks like he went through and checked all the boxes that other skeptics have mentioned before. Nothing new. No insights. Very disappointing.

      • So, you agree the science is not settled?
        =========

      • Lol. It just cannot get more ridiculous.

      • Koonin was dubious all along. He would be to invite 3 skeptics along with 3 mainstream scientists to formulate a statement that they all agreed on. The outcome would be obvious in advance. However, he still has to convince his other committee members and maybe the APS membership, so maybe there are checks in place against extreme statements coming out of this process.

      • Heh, you think he’d publish that if he didn’t already have a pretty good idea of the final report?

        So, do you, Jim D, think the science is settled?
        ==============

      • kim, it could be a minority dissent opinion. We’ll see.
        Specifically which settled science are you asking about?
        That the CO2 rise is mostly due to Man?
        That warming is happening?
        That adding more CO2 causes more warming?

      • Matthew R Marler

        Jim D: I commented above. To me, it looks like he went through and checked all the boxes that other skeptics have mentioned before. Nothing new. No insights. Very disappointing.

        Does that mean that you found no important errors? There isn’t much new in AGW either, except the multiple explanations of the lack of recent surface W. (That is, the theory is mostly based on equilibrium approximations, there is vagueness as to how much and how fast the CO2-induced warming will be, and there are unsubstantiated claims that every change has been and will be horrible. No matter why the hiatus occurred or how long it lasts, the results of CO2 increases will be truly awful by 2100. FOMD goes on to assert just as Hansen predicted way back when.) The important thing is that it was written by a scientist of unimpeachable credentials who is chair of the committee charged to revise the APS position statement. For people who are interested in appeals to authority and actual statements what the scientific consensus, that is an important consideration, and new. Unless it is given a thorough, accurate point-by-point debunking with respect to lots of evidence, it is bound to have an impact. The “Bengtsson Strategy” of calumny (that word again!) is not going to work.

      • He admits to a 1-2% change in the greenhouse effect, or forcing. Imagine what would happen if the sun changed by 1-2% in this century. This is twenty times the difference between its active an inactive phases during the millennium, and the effects of those are seen in the temperature record. I don’t think he had the background to evaluate the potential consequences of that number he threw out in comparison to anything, so I don’t blame him. It’s what you get with these external statements. We can hope that perhaps others at the APS know more about the sun’s influence on climate.

      • A 1-2% change in the greenhouse effect is 1-2% of 33K, or 0.33-0.66K
        A 1-2% change in the sun is a different matter entirely.

      • Jim D, define “extreme statements”

      • He would be to invite 3 skeptics along with 3 mainstream scientists to formulate a statement that they all agreed on

        IIRC that statement is completely untrue. Is it a lie? Or did you really not bother to read and remember the truth?

      • kim, it could be a minority dissent opinion.

        So dumbunny claims (3rd hand):

        Ethon has heard that having steered the APS committee in the direction he intended Koonin has resigned in the Hal Lewis manner. Noisily and nastily. Confirmation awaited, but there should be blood on the floor.

      • > The “Bengtsson Strategy” of calumny (that word again!) is not going to work.

        His victim playing was not that bad. He should have named names. That makes for better calumny.

      • AK, the transcript of the meeting is available. Judith was there. Koonin was trying to get points of agreement from that meeting. Maybe the APS statement will be independent of those points of agreement, but I suspect the 3 skeptics had an influence. The points of agreement were basically, yes the earth is warming, yes CO2 has an effect, yes man is dominating the addition to CO2. Not much beyond that, especially about the future, so that is what a statement, if only based on that meeting, probably will say.

      • The points of agreement were basically, yes the earth is warming, yes CO2 has an effect, yes man is dominating the addition to CO2. Not much beyond that, especially about the future, so that is what a statement, if only based on that meeting, probably will say.

        Well, seems to me that’s about all the “97%” agree on. But technically, it’s the committee that decides what statement to propose to the membership, not the experts. We’ll see what comes of it, but my guess is either the editorial signals what the committee decided, or Koonin’s going out with a blast. The latter would be pretty embarrassing for everybody, but that seems to be what dumbunny’s suggesting.

      • The other deliberate downplay by Koonin is this.
        “Although the Earth’s average surface temperature rose sharply by 0.9 degree Fahrenheit during the last quarter of the 20th century, it has increased much more slowly for the past 16 years”
        In the last 25 years 1980-2014 it has increased 0.9 F (0.5 C) too, but he didn’t say that, and it is more relevant. The 25-year rate has not relented since 2000.

      • Correction. Actually 0.35 C since 1990 (25 years). 0.5 C since 1985 (30 years) based on HADCRUT4.

      • And 0.6 C for CRUTEM4 (land) since 1990. No slowing there.

      • For comparison, here’s the 2007 version:

        (Adopted by Council on November 18, 2007)

        Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earth’s climate. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide as well as methane, nitrous oxide and other gases. They are emitted from fossil fuel combustion and a range of industrial and agricultural processes.

        The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring.

        If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.

        Because the complexity of the climate makes accurate prediction difficult, the APS urges an enhanced effort to understand the effects of human activity on the Earth’s climate, and to provide the technological options for meeting the climate challenge in the near and longer terms. The APS also urges governments, universities, national laboratories and its membership to support policies and actions that will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.

      • Matthew R Marler

        Jim D: He admits to a 1-2% change in the greenhouse effect, or forcing. Imagine what would happen if the sun changed by 1-2% in this century. This is twenty times the difference between its active an inactive phases during the millennium, and the effects of those are seen in the temperature record. I don’t think he had the background to evaluate the potential consequences of that number he threw out in comparison to anything, so I don’t blame him. It’s what you get with these external statements. We can hope that perhaps others at the APS know more about the sun’s influence on climate.

        What are “external” statements?

        You affirm that Koonin’s editorial might not stand without revision as the APS formal statement, but have no important criticism of it other than that the treatment of the sun might be inadequate? Imagine what would happen if the sun changed by 1-2%.

        He admits to a 1-2% change in the greenhouse effect, or forcing.

        Effect or forcing, which are you addressing? If the “greenhouse effect” to date is about a 33K increase in global mean temp, 1-2% of that is not worth worrying about.

        You see the problem with paraphrase in place of exact quotation. For “preaching to the choir” it hardly matters, as the choir will sing along; but for debating among people with diverse perspectives who are not yet committed, when you paraphrase no one knows what exactly it is that you are agreeing with or disagreeing with.

        Koonin’s essay is very good. I would expect that by now every member of both houses of Congress has it, or his or her staff has it, and is incorporating it one way or another into campaigns. Unless there is a substantive and formidable point-by-point rebuttal, I expect it to have an impact.

      • > Unless there is a substantive and formidable point-by-point rebuttal, I expect it to have an impact.

        It already has an impact. Not because he says anything new, but because he’s Koonin. Speaking of whom, I’m not sure he could claim being a physicist for 40 years, as more than 25 of them have been in admin and project lead.

        All his talking points are known, and have been rebutted. Of course we don’t have evidence about the future: it’s the future, for Arthur Prior’s sake! The point is not about scoring unrebutted points, but to hammer them over and over again in places the have the most impact.

        The only interesting part is his 1-2%, where he stretches the limits of justified disingenuous to a level only Dick himself has gone before, in his heydays.

      • All his talking points are known, and have been rebutted.

        None of them were ever “rebutted”. All there is is specious arm-waving, usually at the end of five reference links.

      • Matthew R Marler wrote:

        “Unless there is a substantive and formidable point-by-point rebuttal, I expect it to have an impact.”

        Willard wrote:

        “It already has an impact.”

        Being noticed is not an impact, being incorporated into campaigns is not an impact. Here impact can only be demonstrated over time and must bring about some substantive change in the character of the debate. By standards you expressed almost any event is an impact.

        Like you both–Willard once gave me a pyramid hat and I grok on a lot of the same wavelengths as Marler. But you’re straining at gnats. ;O)

      • Sure they’re known talking points, how else could he have derived them from the six consultants? Who doesn’t know is hoi polloi, marching ignorantly in the streets, er, on the astroturf.
        ========================

      • > By standards you expressed almost any event is an impact.

        Which standards have I expressed, again?

      • > None of them were ever “rebutted”.

        Of course they were. Innumerous times. In almost every thread arguments and evidence is being presented. If these talking points could be considered empirical. They’re mostly judgement calls.

        Perhaps AK means “rebut” as in “to refute”? A Kuhnian appealing to Popper clap traps. How interesting.

        Must be a paradigm thing.

      • Willard asks, “Which standards have I expressed, again?”

        Fair enough. You may have gotten me. Let me try… In your statement:

        “It already has an impact. Not because he says anything new, but because he’s Koonin,”

        I inferred that your implicit standard is ‘the/some opinions of persons of certain unspecified stature or standing have impact’. If you are uncomfortable with that I will be happy to say that you have no standards. Regards.

    • You do realize the camp spring cycle doesn’t go negative until about 2030 and that this theory only explains 1980-2000?

      • Broecker’s Camp Century data from Dansgaard goes negative by 1975. It captures a likely mid-20th-century solar peak and declines from there.

    • JIMd

      Fan refuses to tell me either why the temperature has been rising for 300 years or what 30 year period we should dial back to as being typical of the climate equilibrium you both believe we have destroyed.

      Perhaps you might like to answer these presumably very easy but fundamental questions?
      tonyb

      • Borehole data is very diffusive. It would spread a much shorter sharp rise over a longer period. You can tell from the data how diffused it looks.

      • jimd

        That does not answer either of my questions does it? Perhaps you would like to be more specific?

        There has been a long slow thaw over the past 300 years fully captured in CET and mostly captured by BEST which does not go quite as far back.

        It is also confirmed by boreholes.

        Mind you if you want to admit that the various paleo proxies used by Dr Mann to concoct his hockey stick are not reliable I will concede that we should discount the use of paleo proxy reconstructions altogether. Is that what you are saying? So, three answers then Jim, if you would be so kind

        tonyb.

      • I am just saying don’t count on the boreholes. The global temperature rise in the last 100 years of 0.8 C is larger and faster than anything in the record, and 0.7 C of that is since 1950, 0.5 C since 1985. These are fast unprecedented rises, not to be minimized.

      • jimd

        The rise during the period 1695 to 1739was the fastest in the record. It caused Phil Jones to write a paper on it and admit that natural variability was greater than he had hitherto realised when 1740 brought it to a screeching halt

        So now you’ve rubbished proxies perhaps you would confirm this ideal 30 year period of climate that our policymakers should be aiming to get back to?
        tonyb

      • The limitations of boreholes have always been understood. They can give you long-term means in the shaft of the hockey stick, but not details. I doubt if your previous fast rise was 0.8 C and extended over a century, while accelerating towards the end. This one has very different characteristics from that.

      • Matthew R Marler

        JimD: I doubt if your previous fast rise was 0.8 C and extended over a century, while accelerating towards the end.

        Was the recent increase of 0.8C that extended over a century rising at the end? The data show early and late increases within that century at the same of increase, with most recently a nearly flat line.

      • I have said it before. The “pause” is in the statistical noise around a steady trend.
        http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1980/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1970/mean:12

      • jimd

        whilst you continue to think about the ‘ideal’ 30 year period we should all be aspiring t you can tell me what you think about the other paleo proxies used in the most influential climate icon of all time.

        Trees are typically sampled twice in the very short growing season. They are hugely susceptible to micro climate which can mean that for part of their life they may be competing for space whilst at other times they are growing freely and at others they may be shaded from sun, wind or moisture thereby radically altering the signal..

        Perhaps you would like to link to a paper confirming how tree rings produce global temperature signals accurate to tenths of a degree going back 1000 years. More or less accurate that bore holes which you have confirmed really shouldn’t be taken too seriously?

        tonyb

      • tonyb, I don’t think tree rings can be used alone. There are other better long-term average proxies like O18 in glaciers, and I would only trust any proxies to the extent they agree with each other and give independent confirmation.

      • IMO, ice cores have not been vetted enough to show beyond a reasonable doubt that they DO NOT suffer from diffusion issues. There may well be papers that prove diffusion is not an issue since I have no subs to journals. But if anyone knows of such papers, I would be happy to read up on it.

      • jimd

        Well, tree rings and boreholes don’t agree with each other as one has been dipping slightly for 600 years whilst the other has been rising considerably for 300 years. perhaps we should be very cautious of using proxies that disagree with each other or are confusing or otherwise suspect. So that means we can discount the hockey stick and its spaghetti derivatives then?

        Strange how reluctant you and Fan are to give the ideal 30 year period we should be aspiring to as regards a ‘natural’ temperature.

        tonyb

      • Matthew R Marler

        Jim D: I have said it before. The “pause” is in the statistical noise around a steady trend.

        Either as “pause” or as “statistical noise”, how does it support your claim of a 0.8C warming that was accelerating toward the end?

      • Matthew Marler, mainly because I noticed it was 0.8 C since 1900, 0.7 C since 1950, and 0.5 C since 1980. This looks like an acceleration.

      • Jim D, if that’s what you call acceleration, then I have a great little sports car I’d like to sell you

      • Matthew R Marler

        JimD: I noticed it was 0.8 C since 1900, 0.7 C since 1950, and 0.5 C since 1980. This looks like an acceleration.

        That’s one way to do it.

  52. Jim D – Wally Broecker is abused enough around here by the water boiler. He says his 1975 paper embarrasses him. I think you need to search Google and figure out why he says that.

    Today Broecker is very concerned with CO2. He is not some moron holding out abrupt climate change in the manner seen here. JCH

    Wally got the ideas right – strong natural variability and perhaps some anthropogenic warming. He is moreover quite correct in describing climate as a wild beast. Essentially chaotic at all scales. Here’s one from 1995.

    http://web.vims.edu/sms/Courses/ms501_2000/Broecker1995.pdf

    He was a bit wrong on the details. Natural warming kicked off in the 1976/1977 climate shift – and shifted backed again in the 1998/2001 climate shift. But getting this right beforehand is the problem de jour.

    The surface warming variability is in clouds and water vapor or changes in ocean heat uptake? The data suggests that late century warming was mostly clouds.

    The turn of the century climate shift seems to have involved a step shift in cloud cover as well.

    ‘Earthshine changes in albedo shown in blue, ISCCP-FD shown in black and CERES in red. A climatologically significant change before CERES followed by a long period of insignificant change.’

    The source for early 20th century warming is not obvious – TSI is not nearly the whole story. The quantum is not nearly enough – don’t forget to divide by 4 – to make a significant difference. Nor are suphates the reason for mid century cooling – for the same reason.

    My working theory is that it is a solar amplification mechanism working through changes in ocean and atmosphere – and consequently cloud cover – in response to changes in a control variable. Most likely top down by UV/ozone interactions modulating the polar annular modes.

    The planet is in a cool decadal mode for decades – and the cooling Sun suggests the potential for 21st century cooling.

    Regardless – Wally remains interested in scrubbing CO2 from the atmosphere. Technically not a difficult thing – and I suggest that with sufficient heat to generate hydrogen – a carbon/hydrogen synthesis is probably the future for liquid fuels.

  53. You could try to say Freeman Dyson was too old. But if the APS committee decides that climate scientists need to be taken in hand, loads of scientists are going to reconsider their positions.

  54. Judith, thanks for the week review, in two different ways. First, the Koonin piece. So could not get the NYT? Still not bad, and IMO a harbinger of APS things to come. Classical corporate PR techniques concerning a soft climb down. Congrats, as his main message is something about an uncertainty monster… Koonin identified several severe weaknesses in the ‘Science is settled’ meme. Each has to be addressed, a ‘wicked problem’. You appear to have helped turn the tide, through your gracious leadership here and unswerving courtesy everywhere. Congrats doubled.

    Second, highlighting a scurrilous attack on you. Some of us do take notice, and are pondering appropriate responses…all of which would constitute low cost but high impact ‘fun’. For you, not your scurrilous detractors. We have commenced such a ‘ fun’ campaign today…Best out of sight and mind, cause in truth it is not so much fun.
    Regards.

    • John Smith (it's my real name)

      soft climb down?
      the “consensus” is a massive PR failure
      the zeppelin is on fire – soft landing doubtful
      like many in the aristocracy, Cook, Mann and cohorts assume ordinary folk are stupid and talk down to us, it’s laughable
      as much chatter as goes on here about “the consensus,” it’s already dead
      it was meaningless anyway

      Mann should not have payed any attention to Steyn, that trial will likely end up embarrassing him
      Jeez, the guy subs for R. Limbaugh all the time – that kind of political burlesque is consumed by many and taken seriously by few

      Judith Curry, please do not respond to any of those ridiculous attack articles
      Your calm, academic, clear minded demeanor has already won
      It’s the reason there’re attacking
      your foes are in disarray
      don’t block their self destruction

  55. Of course eddy diffusion is diffusive mixing, otherwise they wouldn’t call it diffusion.

    Where do they find these people?

    It is of course turbulent mixing that depends on many other factor than the temperature differential and the material properties.

    In fact it doesn’t happen at all with the oceans. Heat is gained in the top 100m or so from the sun and the distribution deeper depends on the balance of buoyancy and turbulent mixing.

    They don’t find stupid – they make it in blogospheric stupid factories. .

  56. The author usually thanks the reviewer because THEY ARE NOT PAID. Or at best they get an advance copy. But all I had was a window through Google books, and I decided against spending $70 based on the garbage that I read.

    But as is usually the case with a bunch of psychologically-projecting wingers, they frame the argument as an attack on the reviewer.

    Guess who? Not sure what this even means. Instead of being thanked he is attacked? He makes a superficial and quite irrelevant comment in terms that are unmistakably motivated by malignant and malicious impulses – intensely defamatory statements that I won’t repeat. He drops his little bundle of Krackpot and the Klimate Klowns all over the interweb – and whines that he is not thanked and we are attacking him unfairly?

    This is a guy who is seriously out of touch with reality. What is he still doing here with the endless aggressive and content less commentary? Why isn’t he permanently moderated for relevance, having some actual content and civility. Too much work? Blackball him – as he would have been long ago on any reasonable measure.

  57. “[Koonin’s] previous positions include … chief scientist of BP.”

    Why would anyone believe anything from a shill for big oill?

    • Matthew R Marler

      Gary M.: “[Koonin’s] previous positions include … chief scientist of BP.”

      Why would anyone believe anything from a shill for big oill?

      You go for the innuendo, others will go for the more up-to-date affiliation:

      “(chair of APS committee to examine their public policy statement).”

    • “Why would anyone believe anything from a shill for big oill?”

      How about shills for big government?

      (Govenment being orders of magnitude bigger than big oil).

    • Why would anyone believe anything from shills for big oil AND big government?

    • Maybe because he was also “undersecretary for science in the Energy Department during President Barack Obama’s first term” [emphasis added]????

      Personally, as a physicist,I have known of Prof. Koonin as one of the leading computational physicists in the world for nearly forty years, author, for example, of the classic “Computational Physics.”

      Dave Miller in Sacramento

    • @GaryM…

      You forgot the sarc tags. Looks like plenty of people needed them.

    • AK,

      Sometimes it’s funnier to just throw the chum in the water and wait to see what happens.

      You would think even warmists would know by now that BP has been spending megabucks for years to give itself the image of big green oil. Crony environmentalism at its finest.

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/29/the-log-in-the-eye-of-greenpeace/

      • Matthew R Marler

        GaryM: Sometimes it’s funnier to just throw the chum in the water and wait to see what happens.

        I wondered whether you were being sarcastic, but I decided to risk it being straight.

      • From the Washington Times article linked in your link:

        Although only BP and the Nature Conservancy know for sure, published reports say the Nature Conservancy has received about $10 million from BP – […]

        The World Wildlife Fund, another BP grantee, raised $10 million more in fiscal 2008 than it spent and had nearly $300 million in net assets. Researchers at the National Center for Public Policy Research have found evidence of grants totaling slightly less than $1 million in BP donations to this institution. Yet another group, the World Resources Institute, had more than $50 million in net assets and reportedly received at least $200,000 from BP

        Compare that with over $600 million every year from 2010-2013 for R&D.

      • Matthew R. Marler,

        With me it’s a crap shoot whether I am being sarcastic or straight. Including the crack about chum. No offense intended.

      • BP have paid billions in “damages” and I suspect much of that is just a wealth transfer from the successful to the Dimowits.

      • Matthew R Marler

        Gary M: Sometimes it’s funnier to just throw the chum in the water and wait to see what happens.

        No offense intended.

        I was curious to know which of your chums you threw into the water.

    • Gary M wrote:
      >Sometimes it’s funnier to just throw the chum in the water and wait to see what happens.

      It worked either way, didn’t it?

      In fact, Koonin is already being slimed for having worked for BP anyway, while the slimers ignore his role in the Obama administration, not to mention his successful academic career.

      I myself am curious to see if many of my fellow physicists will stoop so low as to slime Koonin. I’d like to think most have more self-respect.

      Dave

  58. In these short sections 8.2.3 and 8.3.2, (half a page each) are simply given equations of the classical nucleation theory (CNT), with suggested possible modification by using Bose-Einstein (B-E) statistics instead of the traditionally used Boltzmann statistics. These are just briefly outlined as a subject for further possible verification in the experiment or theory, but are NOT used in any calculations in this book.

    Why did we come to this idea? We worked together for almost 2 decades on ice nucleation, and our experience here is reflected by papers cited in the book by Khvorostyanov and Curry. Many hundreds numerical experiments and comparisons with experimental data were performed with various sets of parameters.

    Unfortunately, despite almost 90 years of developments of CNT since 1920s, the values of parameters are still uncertain. This is especially true for the surface tension s. It is known that surface tension decreases with decreasing temperature, the rate of decrease is different in different sources, but it is known that at low temperatures (can be around Tlim of -70 to -100 C), s becomes very low, even for pure water without surfactants, and may become even negative in some extrapolations to the low T, which prevents calculations at these T. Since the critical energy of activation DFcr ~ s3, the energy DFcr also becomes very small (or negative), and eventually can become comparable to or smaller than kT, so that DFcr ~ kT or DFcr > kT.

    Thus, we come to a dead end: calculations of nucleation become impossible below Tlim with Boltzmann statistics although many cirrus clouds may form at these T (especially in the tropics), polar stratospheric clouds, playing important role in ozone depletion, noctilucent and mesospheric clouds form at even lower T.

    What we are talking is a minor generalization of classical nucleation theory in cases where CNT breaks down.

    These guys failed to make any comment in the relevant post and continue to rabbit on about things that seem barely relevant and that they seem barely able to coherently describe even. .

  59. Obama “We don’t have time for a meeting of the Flat Earth Society.”

    Proving that arrogant and credulous truebeliever drivel streches all the way to the top.

    And is what motivates the science stooges of “97%” fame who use out tax money to churn out self-serving alarmism.

  60. > Dems tie climate skeptics to tobacco

    This is of course completely back-to-front.

    Tobacco-funded smoking science actually resembles government-funded global warming science – they both have an incentive and agenda to put their paymster’s interest over that of science, all the while pretending not to.

    The only difference being that there was unfortunately no equivalent Tobaccogate to let the public know what was going on behind the scenes.

  61. Why the world will not agree to carbon pricing

    This chart shows why the world will not agree to price carbon. This shows the Net Benefit (i.e. estimated Benefit – estimated Abatement Costs) of carbon pricing under six scenarios. All lines show negative net-benefit for all or nearly all this century. No country is going to sign up to agreements that even the economists own estimates show has negative benefits for 100 years.

    Source: Derived from DICE-2013R model; see also the ‘Introduction and User’s Manual’ http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/Web-DICE-2013-April.htm

    The chart shows the present value net-benefit in 5 year increments (total per 5 years). Net benefit is estimated Benefit (climate damages reduced) minus estimated Abatement Cost. (I question the damage estimates but that is a separate issue).

    All lines except ‘Copenhagen’ and ‘0.5 Copen Partic’ assume the whole world implements a carbon price in unison in 2010, and the pricing scheme covers 100% of human-caused GHG emissions.

    The ‘Copenhagen’ line assumes increasing levels of participation reaching 100% participation in 2100. (Full participation means all GHG emissions from all human caused sources in all countries). The line item for participation rate is titled: “Copenhagen estimate (optimistic)”

    The ‘0.5 Copen Partic’ line is my addition. I have arbitrarily halved the participation rate used for the ‘Copenhagen’ projections.

    The chart shows that the benefits are negative for all this century.

    The carbon pricing advocates justify it by accumulating projected net benefits out to 2300, and arguing we have to start now because it will cost more if we delay.

    Carbon pricing is the climate economists way to cut global GHG emissions. But, if we want to cut global GHG emissions (a disputed cause), there is a better way. It is the engineer’s way. That is, just address the issue diorectly. No need for carbon pricing, or emissions monitoring, or enforcement mechanisms and conflict resolution. Just do it. We could do it, in part, by removing the impediments on nuclear power that are causing it to be far more expensive than it could and should be. Everything else can be done (e.g. transport fuels) once we have lower cost energy.

    [P.S. the jagged blue and green lines are in the default ‘Participation’ rate, not my errors. It is from the assumed rate ((optimistic) of countries becoming participants in carbon pricing to meet the Copenhagen commitments (which have not been agreed).]

    • Chart failed to post. See table below instead. The first column is the Net Benefit for the Copenhagen scenario discounted using the Baseline discount rate. The second column is the participation rate halved from 2015 to the end, and nothing else changed from the Copenhagen scenario.

      Incremental Abatement Costs and Damages Relative to Baseline
      Present Value Net Benefit (Benefit – Abatement Cost) ($ trillions)

      through 2050 -3.45 -12.68
      through 2100 -5.47 -32.59
      through 2200 10.99 -24.66
      through 2300 17.71 -18.36
      through end 17.81 -18.26

      • BTW, I could have misunderstood. So, if Professor William Nordhaus or Professor Richard Tol want to point out what I’ve done wrong, I’d be pleased to hear.

    • I should have mentioned that my above post is in response to the statement in the Grist article referring to the recently released climate alarmists’ report chaired by Sir Nicholas Stern:

      Climate action is an economic opportunity rather than a burden. A high-profile report released a week ahead of the summit argues that ambitious climate action could be undertaken at essentially no cost to the global economy. Expect to hear lots more talk about how green cities are prosperous cities and how there is money to be made or saved in renewables and energy efficiency.

      http://grist.org/climate-energy/whats-the-deal-with-this-u-n-climate-summit/

      The report is here: http://newclimateeconomy.report/

      A longer Op-ed with mofre detail and charts is here: http://www.salon.com/2014/09/16/the_global_cost_of_fighting_climate_change_might_be_free/

      None of these claims seem to reconcile with William Nordhaus’s DICE-2013R (unless I have misinterpreted it).

      • I love how these ijits try to make wasting money sound like an investment. An investment in st*pid-ity is what it is.

  62. A number of commenters have emphasized the importance of Steven Koonin’s WSJ column.

    I just want to add that I have known of Steve since I was an undergrad at Caltech forty years ago. He was and is a highly respected computational physicist. I have to confess to a bit of nervousness in reading his column: if Koonin had decisively shot down my own views on catastrophic climate change, I would have needed to seriously consider if I had really been completely nuts on all this!

    Of course, his column makes precisely the points that Judtih, and many of us here who are scientists, including me, have been making.

    The dogmatic catastrophists now have a real problem: either slime Steve Koonin or admit that Judith and others have been making some very valid points.

    At least within the physics community, sliming Koonin is going to be a difficult row to hoe.

    Dave Miller in Sacramento

    • PhysicistDave:

      A number of commenters have emphasized the importance of Steven Koonin’s WSJ column.

      And a number here have attempted to play down its importance.

    • The dogmatic catastrophists now have a real problem: either slime Steve Koonin or admit that Judith and others have been making some very valid points.

      Well, dumbunny chose slime. Closing statment:

      This sucks.

      Depends on your point of view, I guess.

      • Of course, the Silly Rabett is a “chemistry professor”, not physics. I suppose that makes all the difference.

        Sort of reminds me how many creationists have biology degrees.

      • What was the “this” to which Eli referred, AK?

      • What was the “this” to which Eli referred, AK?

        Ask him.

      • Reading the op-ed is enough, AK.

        Have you read it?

      • Have you read it?

        Yup. Seemed rational to me, if a bit conservative. Especially the part about fossil emissions being responsible for the rise in pCO2. From a policy standpoint, the possibility that isn’t true is actually fairly important. IMO.

      • “It” refers to Eli’s op-ed, AK.

        The “this” refers to the situation described in the previous sentence:

        > APS has been arrogantly negligent in its handling of the coming Climate Change position statement.

        http://rabett.blogspot.com/2014/09/koonin-hits-fan.html

        This is the “this” that sucks, according to Eli’s op-ed.

      • “It” refers to Eli’s op-ed, AK.

        What op-ed? I haven’t read any op-ed by Eli. Why didn’t he link to it in his blog post?

      • Eli’s blog post was an opinion editorial, AK. It contains an editorial content. It is not the product of an editorial committee, nor the product of a subcommittee. It is not a presentation, like this one:

        Koonin was intimately acquainted with the very technologies that have failed so spectacularly on the Deepwater Horizon rig in his former job as BP’s chief scientist. While his current employer, Barack Obama is trying to figure out ‘whose ass to kick’ over the spill, he might find it instructive to zip back to a presentation by Koonin at MIT in 2005, in which we see Koonin-as-oilman boasting of his company’s technological prowess in taking oil exploration and production into the ultra deep waters of the gulf..

        In particular, he says that $50 million to bore a hole in the gulf’s seabed will yield a million barrels a day, describing the technical challenges of depth and pressure. A small note on the bottom of his slide reads ‘marine environmnvironment creates integrity challenges’ – engineering-speak for ‘accidents likely’.

        http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/other_comments/522729/the_link_between_bp_geoengineering_and_gm.html

        Hope that helps.

      • Eli’s blog post was an opinion editorial, AK. It contains an editorial content.

        So every blog post that expresses an opinion is an op-ed?

        And, given Koonin’s background, why did Obama pick him for his post? Oh, and why did the APS pick him to head up its committee? (A move dumbunny called clueless at the time, to be fair.)

      • The wittle wabbette is a lousy prof. of chemistry at a third rate university:

        http://www.ratemyprofessors.com/ShowRatings.jsp?tid=543236

        worst chem class ever! if u dont understand chem, dont expect to learn it from him. I went to class nearly every time, but he is so boring that i ended up sleeping most of the class away…dont take him unless u want to retake this class.

      • > So every blog post that expresses an opinion is an op-ed?

        That depends. Other indicators might be needed. You could call it an essay, like Koldie did with Koonin’s op-ed.

        As for your question:

        Three years ago, the national laboratory then headed by Steven Chu received the bulk of a $500 million grant from the British oil giant BP to develop alternative energy sources through a new Energy Biosciences Institute.

        Dr. Chu received the grant from BP’s chief scientist at the time, Steven E. Koonin, a fellow theoretical physicist whom Dr. Chu jocularly described as “my twin brother.” Dr. Koonin had selected the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley, over other universities in the United States and Britain in part because of Dr. Chu’s pioneering work in alternative fuels.

        […]

        The relationships among Dr. Chu, Dr. Koonin and BP illustrate the complexity of the ties between the company and the government now playing out along the Gulf Coast as they struggle to cope with one of the nation’s worst environmental disasters. Just as the Pentagon and military contractors develop symbiotic business, technical and political interdependencies, the government in this case needs BP’s offshore drilling technology and well-control equipment; the company needs the government’s logistical and scientific expertise, including that of Dr. Chu, a Nobel Prize-winning scientist.

        http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/26/us/politics/26energy.html

        Must be a paradigm thing.

      • That depends. Other indicators might be needed. You could call it an essay, like Koldie did with Koonin’s op-ed.

        I call it a blog post. Like mine, or yours. Like our hostess’, in a small-scale way.

        Koonin’s op-ed is an op-ed, like Stavins’ (or our hostess’ in the Australian). Why? Because it’s printed/posted on the editorial page of a major newspaper, with all that implies WRT the public’s reaction.

      • > Like mine, or yours.

        I’d rather call these comments.

        And this would be a report:

        http://arxiv.org/pdf/0907.5140

        The first paragraph of the executive summary:

        Despite efforts to stabilize CO2 concentrations, it is possible that the climate system could respond abruptly with catastrophic consequences. Intentional intervention in the climate system to avoid or ameliorate such consequences has been proposed as one possible response should such a scenario arise. In a one-week study, the authors of this report conducted a technical review and evaluation of proposed climate engineering concepts that might serve as a rapid palliative response to such climate emergency scenarios.

        But cleansing, but cleansing.

      • > Because it’s printed/posted on the editorial page of a major newspaper,

        Actually, this meaning of op-ed refers to the fact that these editorials were on the opposite page of the newspaper’s editorial:

        http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Op-ed

        The op-ed transparency of Dr. Koonin uncertainly deserves due diligence, e.g:

        Koonin had become deeply concerned with energy issues and climate change through Jason, through his work on US Department of Energy fusion research committees, and through his own research studying ‘earthshine’ (a phenomenon that allows the state of the earth’s climate to be monitored by the brightness of sunlight reflected off the earth onto the dark part of the lunar disk). But he was not an expert on oil and gas exploration. He talked to people from BP and discovered they were particularly interested in his strategic thinking abilities (Koonin has described the job as ‘figuring out what “Beyond Petroleum” really means’).

        http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/Issues/2007/October/Careers.asp

        INTEGRITY ™ – Beyond Petroleum

      • This report does not attempt to evaluate whether stratospheric aerosol (or any other) SWCE systems should be developed or deployed—or even whether any parts of the outlined research program should be pursued. Such questions are the subject of an intense ongoing debate, involving socio-political and economic issues beyond the scope of this study. This report aims to better inform that debate by elucidating the technical research agenda that would be necessary to reduce the uncertainty in potential SWCE interventions.

        Page IV (6 in acrobat).

      • Cf. Russ Cargill in The Simpsons Movie

      • I see the Rabbit has perhaps been munching on the newly legalized intoxicating weed. He seems to me to be getting more and more partisan and grumpy. Did the herbivore determine that Koonin was off the rails before he wrote his editorial? I forgot, the rabbit only sees the greenery right under his nose and only attacks those who hopelessly outclass him.

        Seriously, how can anyone take Halperin seriously? Certainly, not in the same league as Koonin.

      • The rabbit’s piece is actually much worse than I thought. It is little more than name calling and grumbling without much technical substance.

        The people on the panel have actual leadership credentials and scientific credentials. But they don’t include “climate” scientists. This is of course standard practice in policy oversight and does avoid the appearance of stacking the deck. But a chemist with no leadership credentials and minor scientific credentials calls them names.

        Rabbits should stick to vegetables and leave real meat to grown ups.

    • physicsdave, It will be fun to follow which crowd have what to say about Koonin’s essay.

      http://redneckphysics.blogspot.com/2014/09/believers-and-hoaxers-will-likely.html

      There is my “projection”.

    • Dave
      Knowing your background I appreciate these comments about Koonin. It gives me another reason to have confidence in his views.

      • Next time, nottawa, simply read what DaveM says. Better yet, copy everything he says everywhere.

        Don’t ask DaveM if he knows where Koonin got his 1-2%.

      • Wee willard

        Sounds like you are suffering from a little credentials envy. Is it the Stanford thing or what? If you are this defensive at this stage, you will be a psychological mess when the tide really turns and the scientific community wakes up.

      • Willard

        Speaking of turns, did you see that graph on the Arctic Sea Ice extent today? It appears to have hit bottom. Meanwhile the Antarctic Sea Ice extent trend line is on a trajectory resembling an F-16 takeoff. If the growth continues, they may have to cancel the 2016 Rio Olympics sculling events due to the rowing course being mucked up with icebergs.

      • “But why do you think that the op-ed is hugely important or even important? ” mwgrant, I explained this earlier. It’s important because Steve Koonin was the head of the APS committee. If the APS changes its position, that will be very influential. Or if there is a public fight because they sent a well-regarded physicist to study the issue, then decided to ignore him because they didn’t like the message, that will be very influential too.

      • miker613 see here

        mwgrant | September 22, 2014 at 3:27 pm |

        https://judithcurry.com/2014/09/19/week-in-review-27/#comment-631518

    • Koonin’s piece is well written but the bottomline is that it brings nothing new to the table and it will have no substantive impact on the dynamics of the ‘debate’.

      • Nice to see some honest-to-god skepticism here at Climate Etc.

        I was surprised to read Mike – who often shows a streak of skepticism, proclaim that the article was a “game-changer.”

        Reminds me of the countless times I’ve read about how one event or another was the “final straw” to break, or a “final stake through the heart” through the heart of the AGW hoax (yes, I actually read that something was a “final stake through the heart” as if previous stakes through the heart wouldn’t have been final).

        In fact, the articles was just same ol’ same ol’, and here’s why. I see the technical arguments presented as being a reasonable part of scientific debate. People have different perspectives on the science, so why shouldn’t they present them?

        But the article uses the meme of “the science is settled” as a foil – and as such it reflects an unfortunate tendency among climate warriors to simplify complex matters. What a shame that scientists who have a career in understanding the complexities of the world are so easy to embrace fallacious simplicity.

        How many climate scientists have ever said, “the science is settled,” and to the extent that they have, or even have said something essentially the rough terminology, what did they mean?

        Did they mean that there is no meaningful debate about the physics of the GHE? Well, if so, I often read that “most” “skeptics” would agree.

        Did they mean that there is no meaningful debate that the earth is warming and that ACO2 is contributing to that warming? Well, if so, I often read that “most” “skeptics” would agree.

        Did they mean that there is no measure of uncertainty as to the magnitude of the warming affect of ACO2? Well – if so, then they were not in alignment with the “consensus” view of scientists.

        Did they mean that there was no uncertainty w/r/t some aspects of the physics of the GHE? Well – if so, then they were not in alignment with the “consensus” view of scientists.

        No matter his credentials and capabilities, Koonin’s article fails with respect to being reflective of a sound approach to science. Instead of engaging in a debate about the science and leaving it at that, he chooses to utilize simplistic rhetoric to wage a politicized battle – in the name of advocacy. Advocacy is fine. It’s fine when Judith engages in it and it’s fine when Koonin engages in it. What is sub-optimal, however, is when someone uses simplistic rhetoric to ground their advocacy in tribalism.

      • Willard and Joshua discover it will take many words to divert people away from remembering why we were told “the science is settled.”
        It was because the whole thing was just “basic physics.”
        But another of the nations top physicists is unimpressed. That means something. That is all- audit away.

      • Joshua, you’re off on a tangent. Things are much simpler. Koonin’s article is irrelevant to a debate that long ago failed.

      • mwgrant –

        ==> “Joshua, you’re off on a tangent”

        Moi?

        ==> “Koonin’s article is irrelevant to a debate that long ago failed.”

        I don’t understand how a debate fails. Could you explain more about what you mean? Do you mean an argument (or a debate tactic) failed?

        Do you mean that the debate failed to lead to policies being enacted? Again, I don’t understand how a “debate” could be held responsible for that.

        I think that Koonin’s article is essentially meaningless (not irrelevant) in the larger context of the debate. The climate wars will continue apace, despite claims otherwise by “skeptics” up and down this thread and in others, no doubt.

      • > we were told “the science is settled.”

        Please remind where, when and about what, JeffN.

        Koonin says the same, at least for the AGW part. He also seems to quite certain of his 1-2%. Mr T might not be happy.

      • 97%. Now do you get it?
        ===

      • willard –

        My guess is that the ratio of “skeptics” saying “the science is settled” to climate scientists saying “the science is settled” would be at least 1,000 to 1.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:William_M._Connolley/The_science_is_settled

        The simple fact is that the IPCC itself publishes reports that are not consistent with the imputed meaning of the phrase as used by “skeptics” to characterize the “consensus” point of view.

        There is a reasonable debate to be had, IMO, w/r/t how to create policies to address the potential of harmful climate change that ACO2 poses. It is a shame that “skeptics” see fit to undermine that debate by using cheap rhetorical devices.

        It is unfortunate that a renown scientist such as Koonin would stoop to rhetorical tricks – although it certainly is same ol’ same ol’

      • IMO t purpose of the debate should have been to identify and characterize the issues and arrive/move toward a resolution (in the sense of actions/no action). The debate has failed because ‘minds are settled’ — sides are entrenched, lines between the science and the politics are blurred, the issues have not been characterized much less resolved, and rigor mortis has set in. Rational decision making is off the radar.

        As you might guess I agree with your comment

        “I think that Koonin’s article is essentially meaningless (not irrelevant) in the larger context of the debate.”

        but for very different reasons and without the qualifier ‘(not relevant)’ –slight variation on a theme.

      • The science is restless.

      • mwgrant –

        ==> “IMO t purpose of the debate should have been to identify and characterize the issues and arrive/move toward a resolution (in the sense of actions/no action). The debate has failed because ‘minds are settled’ — sides are entrenched, lines between the science and the politics are blurred, the issues have not been characterized much less resolved, and rigor mortis has set in. Rational decision making is off the radar.”

        I agree with all of this.

        I think that Koonin’s article isn’t irrelevant because it is evidence of the rigor mortis of which you speak – even though it is meaningless w/r/t characterizing issues and moving towards resolution. But I would agree that it is “irrelevant” in the sense that it will not move the needle in a more substantive sense.

      • mwgrant –

        One more thing:

        ==> “As you might guess I agree with your comment…[…]…but for very different reasons ”

        Would you mind explaining? What do you see as the difference in the reasons we think that Koonin’s article is essentially meaningless?

      • “I was surprised to read Mike – who often shows a streak of skepticism, proclaim that the article was a “game-changer.”” I called it a (potential) game-changer for one reason only: If Koonin headed the APS committee, that means that either the APS will modify their statement, or there will be a big public fight within the APS over why they refuse to modify their statement after they sent one of their really good physicists to spend time checking the subject.

      • I stand corrected, Mike. Apology extended for mischaracterizing what you said.

        I can’t agree with your characterization of potentially game-changing, but it is an interesting perspective on the potential significance of Koonin’s article.

      • Some issues have been delineated.
        1. The models fail to predict the general behavior of the global surface temperature.
        2. The predicted tropical hot spot didn’t materialize.

        There are probably a few others somewhere out there.

      • Now Josh and Willard dispute the fact that the warm argue the matter is settled. I guess 97% of scientists are 95% certain of…… Nothing?

        But… Basic physics. Who finds Koonin’s op-ed important? Auditors want to know.

      • Joshua,

        I do not know if this helps with the difference. IMO any argument is meaningless to a failed debate. We have already given precedence to quarreling and “win/lose” over rational decision making, and human nature and the arrow of time now likely constrain us to that path. So it goes.

      • The science is settled.

        Folks get this all wrong. The first thing to realize is that climate scientists don’t claim the science is settled. So, while the argument is made in many verbal forms — the science is settled, there is no debate–, those verbal forms of the argument don’t come from the lips of climate scientists. Why?
        because they know better and because scientists don’t decide when the debate is over. Scientists don’t get to decide when the science is settled.
        The only way scientists make this “argument” is with their actions. In short, they act as if the science is settled. Actions speak louder than words.
        So, when a scientist like Gavin refuses to debate, what he says with his actions is that there is no debate. Scientists also argue that the science is settled by refusing to studying certain things– http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/10/24/2828971/nebraska-climate-study/

        Scientists act as if the science is settled ( actually certain aspects of the science) but they don’t actually make the precise argument in words. That is left to other. Scientists know that they don’t get make these proclaimations about science, at least they know that their meta-scientific comments carry no weight. So who decides when science is settled? Because there is always a residual of epsitemic uncertainty in science, the decision that science is settled has been and will always be one made by power outside of science. It’s an assessment made by those who don’t do science but rather by those who document the progress of science and by those who fund science. The decision that science is settled is made by historians and enforced by politicians. Power decides.

        That is why the most forceful statements that the debate is over and that science is settled come from politicians. While a good scientist will always argue privately that there is a residual uncertainty in every statement of science, when it comes to how they act, they will act as if this residual doesn’t exist when they are given that clue by those in power and by those who write history. Nobody wants to be remembered as a crank.

        The easiest way to see this is to read the following.

        This is oresekes arguing how we know we are not wrong. Note the difference between the historian perspective and the science perspective.
        The scientist would say ” how I know Im probably right” The historian flips this on its head and hides the residual uncertainty because they want to make the argument that the debate is over.

        The second thing to note is that Oreskes knows who to cite as the authority
        on when science IS SETTLED. She quotes the governator. That’s right
        politicians decide when the science is settled. Tough luck for you sceptics. They decide what questions scientists will be paid to ask. As it should be. Now here they give scientists broad latitude, but there are certain lines of inquiry that are cut off or not funded. They are cut off because the science is settled in their mind. In their mind the residual uncertainty is not important. The knowledge is good enough for government work. So political power gets to decide when science is settled, not scientists. It helps of course if scientists agree, because if they dont then they have the power to make a politician look like a fool.

        The third thing to note is that there are multiple verbal forms of the argument “the science is settled”. Note The quotes she uses.
        One can argue that the science is settled by saying
        “the science is settled”
        ” the debate is over”
        “there is a consensus”
        ” we know we are not wrong”

        and just to drive the point home it is vital that scientists never make these arguments. It’s vital that these words never leave their lips. These words must always come from the historian of science and from a power outside of science. Of course, agreement with this power is rarely verbal. The agreement is shown through the actions of scientists. Scientists show they agree with the decision that they debate is over, not through their words, but through their actions.. They act as if the science is settled and we can justifiably impute this belief to them.

        http://www.ucar.edu/governance/meetings/oct07/followup/presentations/n_oreskes_global_warming.pdf

      • ==> “So, when a scientist like Gavin refuses to debate, what he says with his actions is that there is no debate. ”

        The authority has spoken.

        When Gavin “refuses” to debate (even though he does debate, as we have all seen many times) what he says is not really what he says, but what “the authority” has determined what he has said – not by what he said, but by how “the authority” has decided to globalize about what he says from a specific act.

        Seriously, has anyone seen Steven and Brandon in the same place at the same time?

      • mwgrant –

        Thanks. I still understand what you think is so different on our perspectives on this issue, but beatings and dead horses and all of that.

      • still don’t understand….

      • David Springer

        Mosher writes:

        “That’s right politicians decide when the science is settled. Tough luck for you sceptics.”

        Governor Rick Perry says the science is unsettled. Tough luck for you warmists.

      • Joshua.

        You do realize that we get to interpret gavins actions.
        we get to do that.
        Its rational to do that.
        You get to ignore his actions.
        You can also interpret them differently.
        The science of reading texts and reading peoples actions is not settled.
        So, you get to disagree. You get to make a different case.
        Go ahead, make it.
        In the end, all that we have is explanations of what we observe.
        I observe him avoiding debate. I get to explain that. I actually get to have beliefs about that. You can choose to read him differently. You get to have a different take. We can and will disagree. And yet both of us will have rational beliefs

      • Steven –

        ===> ““So, when a scientist like Gavin refuses to debate,…

        drip….drip…drip…

        ==> “I observe him avoiding debate.”

        ——————————————————————

        ==> “So, when a scientist like Gavin refuses to debate, what he says with his actions is that there is no debate.

        drip….drip…drip…

        ==> “I observe him avoiding debate. I get to explain that. I actually get to have beliefs about that.”
        —————————————————

        So we have “refuses” to debate morphing into “avoiding debate,” and we have a statement of what Gavin “says” by a specific act to what you believe his actions indicate.

        I will admit it’s an improvement – one that I don’t think I ever see with Brandon. So maybe you can Brandon can be in the same room at the same time.

        But the basic flaw still exists in your argument – a lack of appreciation for uncertainty and a self-conferred “authority” that gets your arguments into trouble repeatedly.

      • > Who finds Koonin’s op-ed important?

        Well, Judy seems to do. And lots of Denizens too. Mr T looks unfazed, though.

        In other news:

      • I agree a lot with what Mosher says. You can tell what is “settled” by what it would be hard to get funding to re-do. One example is a global temperature record. It had been done by CRU and NASA already, and Mosher et al. had to go outside the usual system to do it again. To get funding to re-examine old problems and answers, you need innovative methods and/or new data.

      • Steven –

        Koonin’s piece uses an unproductive ploy to approach those questions, IMO. IMO, it employs a cartoonish a caricature of the perspective of many scientists w/r/t climate change. It is focused on exploiting a rhetorical loophole rather than fostering quality engagement, IMO.

        ==> “We can and will disagree. And yet both of us will have rational beliefs”

        I agree. So let’s move forward from here.

        Moving forward..the question is what does Gavin or someone else think is not really debatable. Let’s try to answer those questions with integrity.

        Perhaps we might even agree that someone’s view on what is not really debatable is not sufficiently respectful of uncertainty. Perhaps we might agree that someone’s view on what is not really debatable is being misrepresented by some SWIRLCAREs to score cheap rhetorical points

        Along those lines, I think that mwgrant puts it quite well.

        Koonin’s piece is well written but the bottomline is that it brings nothing new to the table and it will have no substantive impact on the dynamics of the ‘debate’.

        […]

        IMO t[he] purpose of the debate should have been to identify and characterize the issues and arrive/move toward a resolution (in the sense of actions/no action). The debate has failed because ‘minds are settled’ — sides are entrenched, lines between the science and the politics are blurred, the issues have not been characterized much less resolved, and rigor mortis has set in. Rational decision making is off the radar.

      • In Gavin’s case it was not the issue that wasn’t debatable, it was the person (Spencer in the case I know of). He didn’t mind answering the questions from the Fox News interviewer. Live debates are always a problem because you can get new pseudo-facts thrown at you that you have no way to check the sources of at that moment.

      • ==> “In Gavin’s case it was not the issue that wasn’t debatable, it was the person (Spencer in the case I know of). ”

        He has engaged in debate with Judith – starting over at Kahan’s blog, and carrying it over here and at RC. He responds to some criticisms at RC and doesn’t respond to others.

        There are conditions related to who he will debate, when he will debate, and what he will debate about. To say that he “refuses” to debate is, perhaps, rhetorically effective (if your world view is that empty rhetoric can be effective rhetoric), but non-productive if the goal is to (to quote mwgrant) “…identify and characterize the issues and arrive/move toward a resolution (in the sense of actions/no action).”

        It seems that Gavin considers “debate” about some aspects of climate science to be non-productive. That doesn’t mean that he “refuses” to debate. So what does he think is not debatable, and why? What does he think is “settled,” and why?

        Here’s what I think. I think that some SWIRLCAREs state that it is debatable whether actions to mitigate ACO2 emissions are worth considering, but then turn around and argue as if it isn’t debatable.

        They say that “uncertainty” is important, but then argue as if anyone who argues that it is worthwhile to take action (or consider taking action) in response to a risk of damage from ACO2 in the face of uncertainty, is an “alarmist” or being ruled by a “phobia” or a “progressive” who is “incapable of critical thinking.”

        On the other hand (for the benefit of my fans), I think that some SWIMCAREs argue that there is a risk in the face of uncertainty of damage from ACO2 emissions and then turn around and argue as if the question of whether there will be damage is not debatable.

        Those are diametrically opposed positions that obscure common interests, IMO. IMO, the unproductive and endless zero sum gain/scorched-earth rhetoric (i.e., same ol’ same ol’ battering each other upside the head with oppositional positions) lies in the all too huan psychological tendency to engage in identity-aggressive and identity-defensive posturing on heavily polarized issues that overlap social, political, and cultural identifications.

      • Joshua, blog debates are a completely different thing from live debates on Fox News. I think it was this difference that is critical to Gavin. Blog debates are much more preferable because you can fact-check, look at sources, then respond much more accurately, with supporting referenced information, than when fielding new information live.

      • That’s right, jimmy dee. Blog debates are different from debates in public, where you face your opponents with people watching and you have to think on your feet. Blog debates are better for those who are insecure in their position (especially if they are ugly and have bad teeth). They can select the points they want to debate and run away without being publicly humiliated, when the going gets tough. Gavin gave up public debating, after he got his buttocks kicked up between his ears in the famous NPR debate:

        http://www.npr.org/2007/03/22/9082151/global-warming-is-not-a-crisis

        Have you watched that one, jimmy?

        “In this debate, the proposition was: “Global Warming Is Not a Crisis.” In a vote before the debate, about 30 percent of the audience agreed with the motion, while 57 percent were against and 13 percent undecided. The debate seemed to affect a number of people: Afterward, about 46 percent agreed with the motion, roughly 42 percent were opposed and about 12 percent were undecided.”

        And that was before the pause that is killing the cause had run on for a decade and a half. Also, before the leaked Climategate emails showed the world what the tricky cabal of shyster climate scientists were up to, behind the curtain. Oh, the humanity!

      • Live debates favor skeptics because, unconstrained by having to stick to the published science, they know how to make things up and the public audience is none the wiser. If you want a live debate, do it in front of a scientific audience, like at the AGU, who can detect the BS, and even better is to let that audience ask questions too. Would any skeptic take that offer up? I think not.

      • The toughest environment I’ve seen was the APS Workshop, with Santer, Held and Collins vs Curry, Lindzen Spencer, with questioning by very intelligent big shot physicists. Koonin’s op-ed reflects his judgement on all that.

      • “Would any skeptic take that offer up?”

        The team of Drs. Curry, Spencer, Lindzen.

        Will anonymous alarmist blog character, little jimmy dee, ever extract his foot from his mouth? Jimmy hasn’t seen any of those courtroom dramas on the telly. Don’t ask a question for which you don’t already know the answer.

      • Dr. Curry wrote wrote [curryja | September 21, 2014 at 7:12 pm |]:

        The toughest environment I’ve seen was the APS Workshop, with Santer, Held and Collins vs Curry, Lindzen Spencer, with questioning by very intelligent big shot physicists. Koonin’s op-ed reflects his judgement on all that.

        I think we would expect that to inform Koonin’s op-ed. But why do you think that the op-ed is hugely important or even important? To rally the troops? As a landmark in the debate’s timeline? Or as beach-head leading to leading to a significant shift in the debate? Why, from your perspective, is it important? Follow through and complete the thought. It has genuinely piqued my curiosity.

      • So, when a scientist like Gavin refuses to debate, what he says with his actions is that there is no debate.

        The debate in science takes place in the peer reviewed published literature and should not depend upon whether someone has superior debating skills or is more persuasive.

      • Joshua wrote:
        >But the article uses the meme of “the science is settled” as a foil…

        Yes, because that has been the dominant meme in the news media, through much of the Web, and among a large fraction of political activists in the country.

        If Hansen, Mann, et al. would come out publicly, loudly and clearly, and declare that of course we do not yet know what the future course of climate will be, then we could move forward. Who knows, a lot of us now deemed skeptics might end up, when the science has advanced, actually agreeing with the alarmists!

        Joshua also wrote:
        >How many climate scientists have ever said, “the science is settled,” and to the extent that they have, or even have said something essentially the rough terminology, what did they mean?

        >Did they mean that there was no uncertainty w/r/t some aspects of the physics of the GHE? Well – if so, then they were not in alignment with the “consensus” view of scientists.

        Joshua, a huge number of politicians, bloggers, and pundits have maintained that it is “settled science” that anthropogenic global warming will be catastrophic. Yes, that claim shows up more in (politically created) executive summaries than in the technical details, more in public fora than in technical scientific papers, and much, much more from scientific ignoramuses such as Anderson Cooper (the poor fool who admitted publicly on his own broadcast that he did not know what an exponent is!) than from legit scientists.

        Unfortunately, more people hear Anderson Cooper in one day than hear Judith in a year.

        I’m sure you know this: you cannot follow the subject at all without noticing this.

        If this were just an arcane dispute among scientists (such as superstring theory, an area of my own interest where the battles are just as fierce, but largely invisible to the general public), the WSJ would have had no reason to publish Koonin’s column.

        Unhappily, this is a public issue that encompasses a huge amount of falsehoods by people who are either ignorant or dishonest claiming it is “settled science” that anthropogenic global warming will be catastrophic.

        Until everyone from Anderson Cooper to Jim Hansen starts publicly telling the truth, honest scientists have an obligation to dispel these public misstatements about science.

        Dave Miller in Sacramento

      • Jim D wrote:
        >. You can tell what is “settled” by what it would be hard to get funding to re-do.

        Hoo, boy!

        Have you had any opportunity to actually observe how funding decisions are made?

        Among scientists, it is notorious how funding follows current fads, how those controlling the funding reward their allies and withhold funds from their enemies, etc.

        The old joke is that “Academic politics is so brutal because so little is at stake” – i.e., funding and tenure for the academics, which usually matters little to most members of society.

        I’ve seen the sort of thing going on in climate science also occurring in elementary-particle physics, but most citizens do not care (or know) about that, because it has no significant political or economic implications.

        But… funding as a measure of settled science?

        Well, then good-bye to that poor unfunded dude who worked as an examiner at the Swiss patent office (a young chap named Albert).

        Boy, you are clueless!

        Dave

      • Joseph > The debate in science takes place in the peer reviewed published literature and should not depend upon whether someone has superior debating skills or is more persuasive.

        It does however depend on who pays the journal editors, and whether that paymaster has an vested interest in the skewing the conclusions.

      • Jim D: You can tell what is “settled” by what it would be hard to get funding to re-do.

        DaveM: Among scientists, it is notorious how funding follows current fads

        If scientists are motivated by funding, I wonder why they’d keep telling people that science is settled.

        Perhaps they’re too clueless to realize where their interest lies.

      • miker613 | September 22, 2014 at 2:33 pm |

        “But why do you think that the op-ed is hugely important or even important? ” mwgrant, I explained this earlier. It’s important because Steve Koonin was the head of the APS committee. If the APS changes its position, that will be very influential. Or if there is a public fight because they sent a well-regarded physicist to study the issue, then decided to ignore him because they didn’t like the message, that will be very influential too.

        I think you missed or chose to ignore the tenor of my question to Judy. And then you simply repeated your earlier answer. I had already seen that and a variant of that prospect had occurred to me. I was not asking Judy for mike613’s answer, but I appreciate your effort.

        Judith stated that it was hugely important. I am curious as to why. To be clear I even suggested three different possibilities in increasing order of weightiness or seriousness. Please note that the last item, ‘beach-head leading to significant shift’, IMO sufficiently captures your APS angle.

        So let me phrase it this way: The author wrote that the op-ed was hugely important but did not provide (the author’s rationale) for writing the statement. I was after the author’s rationale—not an iteration of a third party’s response. It should be obvious from the outset that different people will have different views on the matter. I simply wanted the author’s since she had not provided one.

      • > Now Josh and Willard dispute the fact that the warm argue the matter is settled.

        Where did I dispute that, JeffN? I asked you where you got your Science is Settled, and what exactly you’re talking about.

        You just got caught driving a meme you know.

      • Joshua, You are aware that Koonin and his committee have taken extensive testimony from climate scientists and that their questions showed a keen understanding and interest? This is standard practice in real oversight proceedings, you choose people with strong credentials but not from one of the partisan groups. So exactly what is the problem again?

  63. What’s the betting line on Steve Koonins getting audited by the IRS?

  64. Steve Koonins “There is little doubt in the scientific community that continually growing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, due largely to carbon-dioxide emissions from the conventional use of fossil fuels, are influencing the climate. There is also little doubt that the carbon dioxide will persist in the atmosphere for several centuries”.

    Hard to disagree with a man much smarter than myself but I will anyway. Both statements are partly true.
    Technically the first is true that CO2 has increased probably from fossil fuels and should influence the climate through a rise in air temperature.
    But greenhouse gases include the main one, water vapor, have not been shown beyond doubt to be rising as we lack the wherewithal to measure this worldwide. Instead it is interpolated backwards that because the temperature has risen and CO2 has risen that therefore greenhouse gases must have increased.
    Secondly the old chestnut about persistence of CO2 for several centuries in the atmosphere. Julius Caesars last breath still has CO2, O2 and Nitrogen around today but it is a meaningless statement.
    There will be no CO2 residue of any importance within 5 years of its production due to the large carbon cycle turnover.
    It sounds like he is still having a bet each way.

    • Secondly the old chestnut about persistence of CO2 for several centuries in the atmosphere.

      First, he’s talking about what the ” scientific community” thinks. Like most such “consensus” opinions, it’s open to reconsideration in the light of sufficient evidence. The evidence is there, but it’s buried in details of evolutionary ecology, and requires some understanding of chaos theory to see without having it pointed out.

      Second, there’s an implied assumption: absent anthropogenic removal. All the alarmists (that I’ve noticed) have insisted to me that that tacit assumption applies. So our efforts to redirect energy development would be well advised to focus on removal and reuse. IMO.

      There will be no CO2 residue of any importance within 5 years of its production due to the large carbon cycle turnover.

      He’s talking about net quantities, not individual molecules. Which are indistinguishable anyway. Well, except for isotopic differences.
      But most of them are bosons. For what it’s worth.

    • See this resource. It’s not for a long time period, but at least it is good data since RSS has been collecting.

      http://www.remss.com/measurements/atmospheric-water-vapor

      And here is a summarized version of the more complex files:

      ftp://ftp.remss.com/vapor/monthly_1deg/tpw_v07r00_198801_201408.time_series.txt

      In the time series, I can see a spike where ocean temps recently broke a record. I’m playing with it in R, just for fun.

    • Some who complain about boson are merely bozos.

    • From the article:

      Several people have noted the apparent mis-match between the NCDC report of all-time record warmth of global average sea surface temperatures in August, and the satellite tropospheric temperatures which are nowhere near a record.

      But, as I have cautioned, there tends to be a time lag between SST warming and atmospheric warming…typically 1 month during non-ENSO conditions, and 2-3 months during ENSO. Furthermore, tropospheric temperature variations are somewhat larger than the SST variations that drive them, making direct comparison of the numbers more difficult.

      http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/09/the-curious-case-of-record-august-ocean-temperatures/

  65. Stavins seems to have mixed up C versus F temperatures, as he seems to project 3 to 9 degree C warming from doubling. This looks like the IPCC range misconverted to F.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/21/opinion/sunday/climate-realities.html?_r=0

  66. Dumbunny quoting TS Eliot WRT the CAGW movement:

    We are the hollow men
    We are the stuffed men
    Leaning together
    Headpiece filled with straw. Alas!
    Our dried voices, when
    We whisper together
    Are quiet and meaningless
    As wind in dry grass
    Or rats’ feet over broken glass
    In our dry cellar

    Sic Transit Gloria Mundi

    • Actually, it was a way to paraphrase “it sucks,” AK.

      Malabu’s paraphrase was also elegant.

      • Malabu’s paraphrase was also elegant.

        Yup. Fits the CAGW crowd to a tee.

      • Eli did not quote Elliott WRT what you put in his mouth, AK.

        Would that be a lie?

      • Would that be a lie?

        Nope. I honestly took it that way. Still do.

        A paraphrase of “This sucks.” Which I took to refer to the whole situation. (Although I suppose he could claim it only applies to the preceding sentence:

        The APS has been arrogantly negligent in its handling of the coming Climate Change position statement.

        I expect sooner or later he’ll show up and tell us.)

        Given his choice of paraphrase: “We are the hollow men […]”, I took it as applying to his own “side”. But perhaps not.

        I expect sooner or later he’ll show up and tell us.

      • The lie lies in saying the Eli quoted Eliot WRT what you put in Eli’s mouth, AK. I thought you were joking, AK. Now Mr T is haunting me.

        Is poetry code, AK?

      • The lie lies in saying the Eli quoted Eliot WRT what you put in Eli’s mouth, AK.

        It was my interpretation. Along with a link so anybody who wanted could go see and decide for themselves. You could call it an op-ed if you want.

      • Is Burning Man just theater?

      • > It was my interpretation.

        That Eli was referring to CAGW, AK?

        Don’t turn away:

      • That Eli was referring to CAGW, AK?

        Actually the CAGW movement, or at least his part of it. It seemed like an expression of hopelessness/depression, just like “it sucks”.

      • AK..

        Eli is using Eliot to Slime the APS and Koonin.

        It sucks, they suck, he sucks.

        dogs come running.

      • I really thought Eli was referring to APS’ negligent handling of its statement on climate change, AK. I might be wrong, though. After all, it’s only what his previous sentence was about.

        Another thing that sucks is thinking that not knowing everything means we know nothing:

        Basic climate really is settled. While we don’t know everything, we know enough. The rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide is causing problems now,and will cause bigger problems in the future.

        Koonin doesn’t think we know enough to set good climate policy.

        He’s wrong: policy should be on the supply side, phase out fossil fuels (petroleum, coal, natural gas) and substitute solar, wind, hydro and nuclear instead.

        On the demand side, greater energy efficiency.

        We don’t know everything, but we know enough.

        Sea-level rise was important in the $65B damages inflicted by Hurricane Sandy on the tri-state NY metro area (NY, NJ, CT) in 2012. Koonin is now at NYU, whose whose Langone Medical Center sustained $1.13B in damages, and the patients had to be evacuated.

        Before NYU, Koonin was chief scientist at the oil company BP.

        http://rabett.blogspot.com/2014/09/we-dont-know-everything-but-we-know_20.html

      • Another thing that sucks is thinking that not knowing everything means we know nothing:

        Typical straw man. Only to be expected from you and dumbunny.

        He (Koonin) says do the “no regrets”.

        He says the science is unsure, policy has to be set in that context.

        It’s only people pursuing extreme agendas who interpret that as “doing nothing”. Sure, if people want to set up policy with very high regrets, they can. He just says they shouldn’t use claims of certain science to justify rationalize it.

        IMO.

      • willard wins the stupid segway of of the day award

        “After all, it’s only what his previous sentence was about.

        Another thing that sucks is thinking that not knowing everything means we know nothing:”

        Wow.

  67. Into everycons life, a little rain must fall.
    From the article:
    AL JAZEERA AMERICA SUES FORMER VP GORE

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_AL_GORE_AL_JAZEERA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-09-19-13-17-10

    • Gore and Hyatt filed a lawsuit against the network in the Delaware Court of Chancery.

      When I first read that I thought it said “Chicanery”.

  68. Should America open up a second front… against China?

    China may achieve its goal of reducing the carbon intensity of its economy (the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of output) by 45 percent below its 2005 level by 2020. But the country is growing so fast that its coal consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are expected to continue to increase. China is expected to add the equivalent of a new 500-megawatt coal-fired electric plant every 10 days for the next decade, according to projections by the United States government.

    (See Twitter link: Stavins article)

  69. The global warming debate is way past the use of Mann’s hockey stick by the US-hating UN-IPCC and the Eurocommies. It’s about the facilitators of the lie — by an entrenched and entitled climate research establishment, the government education special interest group in general and by Democrat politicians who acting together have done far more than anything else ever could to subvert all of the lofty ideals of Americanism.

    • Wgathon

      The Hockey stick remains absolutely central to policymakers plans. However JimD seems to be confirming that the proxies used in it and other reconstructions, such as boreholes, are a waste of time because they are diffused.
      tonyb

      • tonyb
        Not a waste a time but rough indicators with large error bars and uncertainties. Water impacts on trees, other variations, borehole uncertainties don’t allow .1 or 1 or 4 degree sensitivities. That is a major shame of the climate science establishment. Hockey stick when compared to actual temperatures was forced to hide the decline or admit when tree rings were calibarated vs measurements of temperatures, the indicated extreme variability.
        Scott

  70. The environment is more flexible and resilient than we think.

    From the article:

    “It goes against my deepest notions of how fast ecosystem recovery can possibly happen,” Christopher Tonra, a research fellow with the Smithsonian Migratory Bird Center in Washington, D.C., told the Seattle Times. Tonra is studying how the dam removal affects numbers of native birds, which have already appeared to benefit by the return of salmon, whose eggs they eat. “We are all trained, as biologists, to think of things over the long run. I am not saying the Elwha is fully recovered. But it is so mind blowing to me, the numbers of fish, and seeing the birds respond immediately to the salmon being there. It makes the hairs on the back of my neck stand up.”

    http://www.newsweek.com/worlds-largest-dam-removal-completed-fish-already-returning-269231

    • Ecosystems are incredibly complex, capable of very rapid re-organizations in response to changing conditions. But they also tend to have optimized states for most natural circumstances, and to return to those states rapidly when conditions change back. With many caveats.

  71. Climate Realities
    By Robert N. Stavins Sept. 20, 2014

    CAMBRIDGE, Mass. — ON Tuesday, world leaders will converge at United Nations headquarters in New York for a summit meeting on the climate that will set the stage for global negotiations next year to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the threat of global climate change. The summit is titled “Catalyzing Action,” a decidedly hopeful characterization.

    I wish I were so hopeful.

    […]

    The other side’s view. A real op-ed.

    Of course, the political climate in the United States presents its own challenges. It will require immense effort — and profound good fortune — to find political openings that can resolve the debilitating partisan divide on climate change. But if destructive politics have been at the heart of the problem, the best hope may be that creative politics and leadership can help provide a solution.

    Translation: “It sucks.”

  72. Dr. Koonin’s article is (as labeled by our gracious hostess) “huge.”

    Thanks for drawing my attention to it.

  73. JIm D inquired of Kim: “Specifically which settled science are you asking about?”

    If there is more than one consensus, there is not consensus.

    The only settled science that I see is that CO2 in the atmosphere affects temperatures. Since no one has quantified how much if affects temperature, it’s seems to me there is not “consensus.” Nor do I see a “consensus” on whether the effects will in their totality be negative or positive.

    You guys really are putting the cart before the horse.

    • Skeptics don’t like to say any science is “settled” but as Joshua pointed out, they often say “most skeptics would agree…” which implies that some things are settled in climate science, and there is probably about half a dozen of these things that they would agree with the mainstream about.

      • Skeptics are the mainstream.

      • Jim D wrote:
        >Skeptics don’t like to say any science is “settled” …

        Jim, all scientists are skeptics: as my own teacher, Dick Feynman said, “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

        Science was the revolt of the intellectual hoi polloi against the ruling intellectual elite. All attempts to enshrine the “consensus of experts” are anti-science.

        Dave

      • Willard, ordinarily I don’t reply to your posts for reasons that are self evident.
        But your post of Irina’s ocean acidification tweet justify an exception to the rule.Judith hosted my guest essay Shell Games. That post concerned only the Pacific oyster.
        What you did not know was that the other half of the book essay from which the post was excerpted concerned Pacific corals, and exposes scientific misconduct in the main paper (omission of data, specifically hydrogen sulfide at the Dobu Island seep with an L50 of 30ppb) on the part of Australian researchers at Milne Bay, misconduct rewarded by prominent mention in the Seattle Times Sea Change series.
        The book will be out in a few weeks. Read it. You might even learn some things about how the climate debate has been (in this specific case literally) poisoned by bad science. My previous posts on this general subject included 2 on Marcott’s hockey stick, one on O’leary’s Western Australia sudden sea level rise, and one on IPCC AR4 extinctions. Longer more complete versions all also in the book.

      • Sir Rud,

        If you you release your book on the public domain, I will read it.

        If not, I will ignore it, just like the rest of your production.

        For obvious reasons.

        Please accept my sincere &c.

        w

  74. Society’s choices in the years ahead will necessarily be based on uncertain knowledge of future climates. That uncertainty need not be an excuse for inaction. There is well-justified prudence in accelerating the development of low-emissions technologies and in cost-effective energy-efficiency measures.

    But climate strategies beyond such “no regrets” efforts carry costs, risks and questions of effectiveness, so nonscientific factors inevitably enter the decision. These include our tolerance for risk and the priorities that we assign to economic development, poverty reduction, environmental quality, and intergenerational and geographical equity.

    Individuals and countries can legitimately disagree about these matters, so the discussion should not be about “believing” or “denying” the science. Despite the statements of numerous scientific societies, the scientific community cannot claim any special expertise in addressing issues related to humanity’s deepest goals and values. The political and diplomatic spheres are best suited to debating and resolving such questions, and misrepresenting the current state of climate science does nothing to advance that effort.

    Any serious discussion of the changing climate must begin by acknowledging not only the scientific certainties but also the uncertainties, especially in projecting the future. Recognizing those limits, rather than ignoring them, will lead to a more sober and ultimately more productive discussion of climate change and climate policies. To do otherwise is a great disservice to climate science itself.

    Predicting the future of climate credibly is impossible. Yet we have all sorts on confident beliefs about what it is. Including 55 models at last count that are each chaotic but with one of many divergent solutions that is represented as the best realization of the climate trajectory.

    But somehow saying so becomes nothing new from the sceptic camp. Perhaps so. Perhaps it has all been said before.

    • “The Global Carbon Budget and the information presented here are intended for those interested in learning about the
      carbon cycle, and how human activities are changing it. The information contained herein is provided as a public
      service, with the understanding that the Global Carbon Project team make no warranties, either expressed or implied,
      concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the information”

      Standing firm behind the science

    • I suggest folks read this

      http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/14/files/GCP_budget_2014_v1.0_lowres.pdf

      Some take aways.

      1. The problem is China 2019 they exceed US, EU and India combined
      2. The historical burden( cumulative) is very interesting
      from a reparations perspective

      See the slide
      “Sharing the CO2
      emission quota”

      Reality Strikes

      “Mitigation rates become infeasible under some schemes”

      The US and China have already exceeded their quotas.

      Practical people will look at the budget and conclude that this approach is doomed to failure, political failure.

      Get ready to adapt

      • Agreed that it is a good informational set of slides. This helps to evaluate what is needed for the 2 C level of climate stabilization, and it is a lot, but that doesn’t mean don’t even try. Either you fail and get 3 C, or the sensitivity turns out to be a little lower and you get to 2 C despite exceeding the carbon budget. If you don’t do anything, you most likely get to 4 C still rising.

      • It means a moon-shot effort for nuclear power.

      • Plan to go full steam ahead with gas now, ease back on coal, focus incentives on appropriate R&D, and remediate later (2040-2080).

        It means a moon-shot effort for nuclear power.

        Use that big nuclear reactor in the sky. Solar’s coming down exponentially, and can reasonably be expected to continue.

      • JimD

        the larger problem is that they dont have a REAL budget.
        The budget only addresses C02 and ignores black carbon and methane.

        You cant compute an equitable budget by ignoring methane and black carbon.

        and yes, sensitivity is huge in this budget

      • AK

        “Plan to go full steam ahead with gas now, ease back on coal, focus incentives on appropriate R&D, and remediate later ”

        Agreed. with these additions.

        1. big focus on NG, must get China on board and technologically up to speed, 17/19 of their fracking efforts failed. They need help.
        2. No new coal..
        3. Black carbon control
        4. R&D increases

      • Steven Mosher, black carbon and methane are less urgent. You can start mitigating them later and get the same effect in the long term. CO2 is worst because of the way it stays around, and there is no substitute for early mitigation. That’s not to dismiss these, but when it comes to priorities, CO2 first.

      • @Steven Mosher…

        1. big focus on NG, must get China on board […]

        What about sea-floor methane hydrate? If they’re starting from scratch they might as well go for the most modern. And they’ve got plenty of money to fund research.

        2. No new coal.

        Well… For China especially, if they build new coal plants that can burn biomass, those could switch to azolla later. They’ve got centuries of tradition and experience with it.

        3. Black carbon control

        I suppose. Don’t know much about the black carbon problem.

        4. R&D increases

        Not just more money. (Although that too.) Need new ideas. For instance, I suggested allowing corporations to dedicate some fraction of their tax bill to research of their choice, with limited IP. It might take some thinking through to make it work, and of course the traditional recipients of tax money would scream, but it would also allow a whole bunch of new people to look for innovative things to fund research in.

        And tweak the IP laws!

      • Oh, and somebody everybody needs to start funding research into making methane from electrolytic hydrogen. I know that’s my pet peeve, but IMO it’s important.

        You start with CO2 in the ocean, and hydrogen from solar power (which eliminates the need for inverters, etc.), feed it through bio-reactors filled with tailored methanogens, and feed the methane into the same storage, distribution, and power generating infrastructure you built for NG. That way everything you did about NG except for digging it out of the ground avoids being sunk costs.

        And solar is coming down exponentially.

        Then, later on, if you need to remediate, you turn some fraction of a mature system for dragging CO2 out of the air to sequestration, rather than try do do it with immature technology.

      • […] there is no substitute for early mitigation.

        Thin green line anyone? Of course there’s a “substitute for early mitigation.” Remediate later.

      • Solar won’t be competitive with other sources of energy for a long time to come.

        Wasting money is just that, a waste. There are much better things to spend it on than solar.

        http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/studies/levelized-cost-of-new-generating-technologies/

      • “Steven Mosher, black carbon and methane are less urgent. ”

        1. yes this is the best reason to start with them. especially if you are trying to do things globally. You can afford to start early, work out the kinks and get it right.
        2. starting with things like black carbon which also have severe immediate health effects, build good will and saves lives. TODAY

        “You can start mitigating them later and get the same effect in the long term. CO2 is worst because of the way it stays around, and there is no substitute for early mitigation. That’s not to dismiss these, but when it comes to priorities, CO2 first.”

        Of course, but there is no practical way to do it and 20 years of failed attempts. So the science says do it first. Sorry SCIENCE, pragmatics say do what you can today.. we will have to adapt. sorry.

      • AK, if you can show that per unit of CO2 remediation is less costly than preventing putting the CO2 out in the first place, that would be great. It is much harder to capture CO2 after it is dispersed than before it goes out. Remediation may be part of the solution, like reforestation, but is no substitute for mitigation.

      • Black carbon control is exactly right. Far easier to get some progress on cleaning up residential biomass, residential coal, “back yard” coal industries in China, India and elsewhere, than to stop China and India from building more coal fired power plants when they need more power to provide jobs, industry, and taxes.

        Furthermore, reducing BC gets an immediate reduction in warming, while CO2’s warming is quite small immediately but lasts a long time. BC is a clear short term winner, if you are among those of us who are lukewarmers, who think that human emissions are warming the climate, but at about half the rate the IPCC still suggests.

      • @Jim D | September 21, 2014 at 6:57 pm | …

        AK, if you can show that per unit of CO2 remediation is less costly than preventing putting the CO2 out in the first place, that would be great.

        I’m saying it will be in a few decades. Quicker the more R&D effort goes into it, but eventually anyway. It isn’t a matter of “how to do it”, it’s a matter of which of the many ways turn out to be most cost-effective.

        I’d bet on bio-removal by methanogens (with carboxysomes added througth gene surgery), and the process the Navy’s working on.

        It is much harder to capture CO2 after it is dispersed than before it goes out.

        Not when you take it from the sea.

        Remediation may be part of the solution, like reforestation, but is no substitute for mitigation.

        Of course it is.

      • @jim2 | September 21, 2014 at 6:49 pm |

        Solar won’t be competitive with other sources of energy for a long time to come.

        It already is for some applications. 5-10 years for applications that are remote and can tolerate intermittency. 15-25 years for the rest.

      • AK, apart from the fact that a few decades is too late, who pays for remediation? There is no profit in it. Would it be taxpayers, a carbon tax, or what? Which countries should own this problem?

      • AK, apart from the fact that a few decades is too late,

        No it’s not. If the system is up and running by, say, 2040, it should be able to bring the pCO2 down to current values in 20-40 years.

        who pays for remediation?

        Many ways, but IMO the best way would be to divert a fraction of the carbon removed from the air/ocean surface for profit to sequestration. The whole point is that it allows energy costs to stay very low, which means much more economic development by the time sequestration begins.

        There is no profit in it.

        That’s where you’re wrong. There’ll be plenty of profit to removing CO2 from the air/ocean surface. For use in enclosed agriculture, conversion to carbon-neutral fuel, manufacturing materials, etc.

        I’m not saying that designing the network of treaties and economic interventions would be easy, but it could be done without having to raise the cost of energy. Which would give everybody an incentive.

      • http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140912/ncomms5967/full/ncomms5967.html

        “…we show that, currently, the dominant tree species Norway spruce and European beech exhibit significantly faster tree growth (+32 to 77%), stand volume growth (+10 to 30%) and standing stock accumulation (+6 to 7%) than in 1960.”

        Increased CO2 is breathing life back into the planet. There is no demonstrated reason to stop the increase in CO2. Reducing or capping CO2 is deliberately taking food off the table.

        It is unclear to me why environmental activists want mass starvation.

      • ==> “It is unclear to me why environmental activists want mass starvation.”

        Don’t overthink it. They’re evil. 2nd best is when children starve – especially poor children. Best of all is when friends of and family start.

    • wow.. more gems.. read the methane budget.
      Now methane is the second most important GHG..
      whats the plan? dunno.

      Where is the black carbon budget.. arguably as important as c02, easier to control… where’s the budget?

      MIA..

      Now, how do you calculate an equitable budget for ALL forcings?
      hmm.. well you dont. you budget for only c02 and look the other way on methane ( reducing wetlands would be a huge help) and black carbon.

      hmm.. looking for your keys where there is light

  75. Agreed that it is a good informational set of slides. This helps to evaluate what is needed for the 2 C level of climate stabilization, and it is a lot, but that doesn’t mean don’t even try. Either you fail and get 3 C, or the sensitivity turns out to be a little lower and you get to 2 C despite exceeding the carbon budget. If you don’t do anything, you most likely get to 4 C still rising.

    These people just don’t get that such confident scenarios are not remotely possible. They are indeed counterproductive – the nature of a dynamic climate suggests the likelihood of non warming for decades at least. Yet their ability to cognitively process this is severely compromised. Not even uncertainty seeps through the psychological construct of the AGW groupthink.

    They busily deny quite obvious science and ridicule uncertainty – and the purpose and sense has been lost long ago. It is counterproductive because it is inextricably linked to intimations of catastrophe and progressive ambitions to transform economies and societies parading as philosophies of limits of one kind or another. For this reason pragmatic proposals to encourage energy innovation, carbon intensity, energy efficiency are necessarily too little too late in this worldview. Not to mention social and economic development strategies that in tandem address population pressures, ecological degradation, the decline of soil fertility and emissions of black carbon, methane, nitrous oxide, CFC’s and ozone precursors. Fast mitigation and energy R&D. What’s not to like?

    But the essence is in the personality construct. They have sent far too long and invested too much personal capital in disparagement of sceptics to recognize that the groupthink – masquerading in their minds as consensus – is wrong on fundamental levels and that sceptics were right all along. That is obviously a bridge too far and the poor little dears are far too fragile.

  76. From the article:

    Capitalism in crosshairs as Socialism promoted at opening event of People’s Climate March

    Panel member: ‘A socialist world that will deliver a high standard of living for all.’
    Bill McKibben: Climate change ‘is the biggest problem that humans have ever been up against’
    Naomi Klein: ‘We are dealing with an existential terror’
    Sen. Bernie Sanders: ‘We all know what Fox TV does not know. Climate change is real.’

    http://www.climatedepot.com/2014/09/21/capitalism-in-crosshairs-as-socialism-promoted-at-opening-event-of-people-climate-march/

    • What does ‘Climate Justice’ mean in the context of “The March,”
      a serf asks?

      Does it mean ‘efficient cheap energy’ ter lift the third world outa’
      poverty and increase life expectancy, like the West’s Industrial
      Revolution lifted western serfs outa’ poverty and increased life
      expectancy. Nope! Intermittant windmills and solar power ain’t
      got the guts.

      Does it mean releasing more land fer agriculture and food
      sustainability? Nope! Ethanol production , windmill and solar
      ter replace fossil fuel energy are HUGELY wasteful of land use.
      no room fer farms or animals, say, to get an idea of how land
      would be swallowed up by so called renewables.Ter supply jest
      the current 300 million inhabitants of the US with their current
      power use yer’d need:

      *Solar panels the size of Spain,

      *Wind farms the size of Kazakhastan

      *Or hydro catchments the size of all
      the goddam continents put together.

    • IER’s website states that it was “founded in 1989 from a predecessor organization,” though it does not name that entity. Documents filed with the Office of the Secretary of State in Texas show that the Institute for Humane Studies of Texas forfeited its charter in January 1989, when it failed to pay the state franchise tax, and then filed for reinstatement in April 1989. Paperwork that IER filed in 1993 uses the same state charter number as the Institute for Humane Studies of Texas did. The private business data aggregator Wysk also links the two nonprofits.

      An IER filing from April 2007 lists Charles Koch, at a Wichita, Kansas, address, as a member of the board of directors of the group, though that list has been manually crossed out and replaced with a new set of directors in an addendum to the filing. Koch is not on the new list of board members.

      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/29/charles-koch-institute-for-energy-research_n_5738868.html

    • Jim2,

      It’s important to note that LCOE quoted is for the technology only and doesn’t include the cost of backup, transmission and grid stabilisatation (power and frequency control). This is why the Non-Dispatchable generators are separated from the Dispatchable generators – i.e. because the LCOE figures are not comparable.

      To compare the costs it has to be done as part of a total systems approach. Here is a very simple one for the Australian Electricity Market (NEM) the world’s larges by area and most dispersed. See Figure 6 for a summary comparison of the cost of a mostly renewable and mostly nuclear power supply for the NEM; both options cut emissions by around 90%:
      http://oznucforum.customer.netspace.net.au/TP4PLang.pdf

    • Jim2, the onshore wind number is just the wind farm. It does not include the cost of backup generation necessary because wind is intermittent and no dispatchable. I probe that assertion, Then do the calculations for various backup choices in the forthcoming book in an essay titled Tilting at Windmills. True land based levelized wind is about 11.8 cents/kwh at a 33% capacity factor
      Just one of the books many examples of ‘official’ misinformation by omission or false underlying assumptions

    • Jimmy Hansen and I love nukes. All the power you want for as long as you want it and it’s (almost, relatively) carbon free!

  77. Rings of steam:

    To live and to will our dreams.

  78. “You can watch House Science hearing w/WH adviser John Holdren & EPA’s McCabe testifying on Obama’s climate rule here: [link]”

    If one listens to the climate war as exposed by Holdren and McCabe the world is a very different place than what one currently has experienced. Namely, the lack of agreement between what these Political people say, and what one has experienced; i.e., the disconnect. The pause. The interruption in accelerated surface temperature. Only the non-adjusted temperature record is now distorted by an escalating effort to lie, to commit fraud, to increase current surface temperatures and decrease past temperatures. Both academic and Government fraud.

    All of this is an academic game, played by academic fraudsters, shielded by governmental insiders, and articulated publicly by not so well meaning media personalities.

    The current outcome of this noble cause corruption is not clear to me. The actual participants, i.e., major players are well monied and unscrupulous. The history of Nazi (National Socialist Workers Party) are a template for the current Green Movement and equally should be feared. Useful idiots are present in the current Green Movement and should be identified as such.

    Today’s march for Climate Change blame and incrimination transcends a rationale discussion of any science.

    This is a war of perceptions. Only pointing out the lack of connection between rhetoric and reality has a chance of educating public perceptions and ultimately political actions.

    I hope another multitude of millions do not die upon the alter of Environmentalism

    Our President is a leader in such a campaign of a War upon the Impoverished of our Nation and the World.

  79. Oh, dear, what can the matter be why am I slated for ignobility in the service of moderation selectivity, I can be no more than sophistry, so long at the fair maidens hand.

  80. “Stabilizing climate” is a bit like telling a shark to stop swimming and just float. The notion of stable climate is one of those follies so large we don’t bother to step back and examine it.

    We can only be grateful it’s an absurdity. Imagine being “stabilized” in the late 1870s, or early 1790s. The 1970s was a wild ride which you might enjoy in Australia…in Africa, not so much. And don’t get me started on the parched 1930s or 1830s in Oz. Not that those monsoon failures of the late 1890s – the ones that got Gilbert Walker on the track of SOI – were much fun for India or Australia.

    I guess I’d nominate the late 1870s as my least favourite spot on the climate stabilization dial (which, thankfully, doesn’t work).

    Stabilize climate. Gawd.

    Need adults. Badly.

    • moso, just dipping in, don’t know the trigger for your comment, but anyone who thinks that we can “stabilize climate” disqualifies themselves from serious debate. We can turn the control knob to “OFF” for such people.

  81. Rob Ellison, you only get BE statistics when you have limited quantum states available to your bosons, which does not happen at normal temperatures or even 100 K. To even consider BE statistics, significant numbers of the molecules have to be identical in their whole quantum description including their rotation state which is not the same as spin. These things are just too macro in degrees of freedom available for that to even happen. Jimmy Dee

    This is gobbledegook – distinguished only be confusing Bose-Einstein statistics with a Bose-Einstein condensate.

    Low energy states are more probable with Bose-Einstein statistics than with the Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics. While that excess is not dramatic in this example for a small number of particles, it becomes very dramatic with large numbers and low temperatures. At very low temperatures, bosons can “condense” into the lowest energy state. The phenomenon called Bose-Einstein condensation is observed with liquid helium and is responsible for its remarkable behavior.,/I>

    http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/quantum/disbex.html#c1

    • Give it up Taz. You have screwed up the explanation and application of B-E statistics so completely on this blog over the last couple of years that you can not be redeemed. All documented. What would be sad is if Curry read your stuff and it gave her the idea to include it in her textbook to describe cloud nucleation.

      • Anybody who takes Webs criticism of statistical methods need only to go to his blog, examine his CSALT model for a little while, and wonder to themselves why he thinks that he can use a curve fitting method that works, for example, for a jet engine part, and apply it to an open, complex natural system.

        You can read Naomi Oreskes on the subject if you don’t believe some random blog commenter.

        His response is that his model is “explanatory, not predictive” but I guess that is the difference between the Bible and Principia. You could wonder if it would ever be possible to imagine a circumstance that would disprove his “model,” even in theory, and that he considers this proof that he is correct. He is guilty of Mann’s error of the sandbox, which is, I suppose, why he defends Mann so vigorously.

        I don’t know the first thing about B-E statistics, but I do know that Web is blind to the proper rules of application of the PCA he uses for CSALT.

      • TJA, excellent. I will save your comment as an example of a nobody that lets their anger get the best of them.

      • nottawa rafter

        Web says looking into the mirror.

      • Another Mann like delusion, he claims his model is correct on his own authority.

        Webby, I wasn’t talking to you anyway, I was just inviting people to your blog to judge for themselves.

      • TJA, Well why don’t you do what I did but apply the PCA correctly? Then you can get the same results but bask in the glory of doing it “correctly” !

        Ha ha , what a noob you are !

        Does TJA stand for TheJackAss ?

      • “Well why don’t you do what I did but apply the PCA correctly?” – Webby

        Because PCA does not apply to an open system like the climate. As I said, it works great to analyse closed systems, where all inputs can be controlled. Just as it was the wrong approach for tree rings, which was shown by “the decline” as soon as new data came in outside of Mann’s sandbox, it is the wrong approach for the climate as a whole.

        Why don’t you argue with Oreskes? These are her points. You could always explain why she is wrong in this? Or is she another Koch Bros shill?

      • TJA,
        closed vs open is a “crutch for the weak-minded”, to paraphrase Jesse Ventura.

      • Explain that to Oreskes, Webby.

        Interesting that you, like Mann, cling to your misapplication of PCA with ad-homs, diversions, etc, anything but rational explanations.

    • A fan of *MORE* discourse

      Rob Ellison, please reflect that the Bose-Einstein condensation mechanisms apply to non-interacting bosons (like photons) … and that water molecules at liquid-density assuredly are *NOT* non-interacting.

      That’s why the application of B-E statistics to cloud formation is (at best) deplorably misleading to students.

      \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • But asserting that 500 years robustly validates 1500 years is not? Eh FOMD?

      • A fan of *MORE* discourse

        TJA obsesses “[about hockey sticks]”

        LOL … hockey-sticks aren’t complicated TJA!

        Borehole data robustly affirm the reality of present-day “hockey-stick warming” (relative to the past five centuries).

        Ice-sheet data robustly affirm the reality of recurrent “hockey-stick warmings” (on Milankovitch time-scales).

        This confronts Climate Etc readers with three viable alternatives:

        Worldview 1  James Hansen’s climate-change worldview is pretty much right. Obviously this worldview can’t be correct … because it would imply that Ayn Rand, Milton Friedman, and the Koch brothers are wrong.

        Worldview 2  A cabal of stooge-scientists corruptly fabricates all the world’s climate-data and theories. Quite a few folks here on Climate Etc embrace this conspiracy-centric worldview!

        Worldview 3  Something unusual *MUST* have happened about 1000 years ago (beyond the range of borehole analysis) — perhaps a Medieval Warm Period — that invalidates modern climate-change science.

        Observation  The evidence for Worldview #1 grows stronger year-by-year … while the evidence for Worldviews #2-3 becomes weaker year-by-year.

        Why is Worldview #1 winning? Why are Worldviews #2-3 losing? The world wonders!

        \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • Fan, “If the subsystems within a collection do interact with each other, then the expected frequencies of subsystem states no longer follow a Boltzmann distribution, and even may not have an analytical solution.[3]”

        That’s from wiki. So analytically, we are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

      • I don’t actually obsess about hockey sticks. I obsess about your rejection of sober mathematical analysis for some kind of “post enlightenment” ‘rationality’ that is rhetoric based rather than logic based.

        Your arguments are sophistry posing as rationality.

        Neither 500 year borehole data, nor hundreds of thousands of years of ice core data back up Mann’s 1500 year “high resolution” hockey stick. You seem to think that if you get a fuzzy “that sounds right” feeling, that counts as robust confirmation.

        You have not shown any study that replicates Mann’s 1500 year finding, which was his main claim, so you dodge and obfuscate. I think that warmists attempts to snuff the enlightenment are far more important than Mann’s hockey stick, but that is the main symptom of it right now.

      • A fan of *MORE* discourse

        TJA explains “I don’t actually obsess about hockey sticks […] I think that warmists attempts to snuff the enlightenment are far more important than Mann’s hockey stick”

        LOL … if yer not too busy obsessing over us watermelon-commie enlightenment-snuffers … yah might take a look at the right-hand-margin of Figure 2 of S.P. Huang, H.N. Pollack, and P.-Y. Shen A late Quaternary climate reconstruction based on borehole heat flux data, borehole temperature data, and the instrumental record (Geophysical Research Letters, 2008).

        Dude, looky-at-the-*BLADE* on that sucker!

        \scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}

      • Matthew R Marler

        A fan of *MORE* discourse: Rob Ellison, please reflect that the Bose-Einstein condensation mechanisms apply to non-interacting bosons (like photons) … and that water molecules at liquid-density assuredly are *NOT* non-interacting.

        That’s why the application of B-E statistics to cloud formation is (at best) deplorably misleading to students.

        Fan, could you direct us to where the correct distribution for cloud nucleation germs has been derived, and the evidence presented that it is in fact an accurate model.

        All of this theoretical justification for criticizing B-E statistics (which K&C suggested in passing might improve upon the standard Boltzman distribution) rather misses the point that nothing else has been shown, either by derivation or curve-fitting, to be adequate. No student who read at least 4 whole pages of the book (maybe as few as 2) could have been mislead.


      • No student who read at least 4 whole pages of the book (maybe as few as 2) could have been mislead.

        Anybody that knows statistical mechanics would be sickened by the misuse of Bose-Einstein statistics on massed particles at that temperature.

      • Back to the borehole data then? “Look at the blade! Whatever you do don’t look at what came 1,000 years ago! Koch Bros!”

        This is how you prove that 500=1500 robustly

        Why do you keep pretending to defend Mann when you can’t do it with peer reviewed science? You can only pretend to do it with hand waving, sleight of of hand, and ad homs.

        This is the new Enlightenment?

    • With all this back and forth I don’t see anybody actually looking at the math of the problem to understand the issues. The Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution gives a relative occupation for any state with energy E at temperature T of simply exp(-E/kT). The Bose-Einstein distribution changes that to 1/(exp(E-mu/kT) – 1) – where for particles that have a fixed number and aren’t being readily created and destroyed there is a new constant ‘mu’, the chemical potential. To know what ‘mu’ is, you need to sum up all the 1/(exp(E – mu/kT) – 1) terms for every available state to get the total number of particles. So actually figuring out the correct form for B-E statistics is a very complicated problem, far more complicated than calculating relative occupation numbers for Maxwell-Boltzmann. Not to mention that both statistical descriptions also assume non-interaction between the particles as has been mentioned (the particle states we count over are independent single-particle states – when things are complicated by interactions then the state-counting problem becomes a lot harder as you have to account for statistics of multiple particles being in the various states together).

      If E – mu >> kT even for the lowest energy state E, then you can ignore the ‘-1’, the constant ‘mu’ factors out as a constant multiplier and you reduce to a Maxwell-Boltzmann form. Maxwell-Boltzmann is so much simpler (no need to figure out mu) that it makes no sense at all to use Bose-Einstein when they are numerically so close. The heuristics that have been mentioned (particles close together with only a small number of quantum states energetically available) are the ones that have been proven to relate closely to whether mu is close to the ground state E or not.

      • Arthur Smith, Right, I don’t think anyone has said that B-E IS the way to go only that it COULD be a way to go, depending on how much complexity is required. Personally, I would take the easy route and modify the Boltzmann distribution for two states and the gap would be a no man’s land of sorts, which looks to be the path K&C actually took in the book (haven’t read it).

        The reality though is that there is a gap and it is large enough to present problems. Large enough meaning it can reverse the sign of cloud feedback, kinda important to some.

      • We are cooling, Arthur; for how long even kim doesn’t know.
        =================

      • In the library, with a keen science edge, the dust unsettles.
        ============

      • For several decades, ice nucleation was parameterized based on empirical data as functions either of temperature T or saturation ratio Sw, the attempts to combine these dependencies were rare and not successful. The authors of this book derived for the first time the expressions for the critical radius rcr and critical energy DFcr of the ice germs with simultaneous analytical dependencies on the temperature, saturation ratio, external pressure, and finite size of the freezing particle….

        Unfortunately, despite almost 90 years of developments of CNT since 1920s, the values of parameters are still uncertain. This is especially true for the surface tension s. It is known that surface tension decreases with decreasing temperature, the rate of decrease is different in different sources, but it is known that at low temperatures (can be around Tlim of -70 to -100 C), s becomes very low, even for pure water without surfactants, and may become even negative in some extrapolations to the low T, which prevents calculations at these T. Since the critical energy of activation DFcr ~ s3, the enery DFcr also becomes very small (or negative), and eventually can become comparable to or smaller than kT, so that DFcr ~ kT or DFcr > kT. Thus, we come to a dead end: calculations of nucleation become impossible below Tlim with Boltzmann statistics although many cirrus clouds may form at these T (especially in the tropics), polar stratospheric clouds, playing important role in ozone depletion, noctilucent and mesospheric clouds form at even lower T. Vitaly Khvorostyanov

        Ultimately – it is the ‘chemical potential’ that is the interesting development. B-E stats become viable at some limiting value of E – mu.

      • Rob Ellison – your quote from Khvorostyanov mentions nothing about chemical potential. An activation energy (DFcr in that quote) is a difference between energy of two states, E1 and E2. Boltzmann statistics gives population of the two states exp(-E1/kT) and exp(-E2/kT) and relative population then of exp(-DFcr/kT) (pop2/pop1 for DFcr = E2 – E1). If DFcr <> kT, and there’s essentially no mathematical difference between the B-E and M-B statistics for the problem.

        Bose-Einstein, in other words, is totally irrelevant for this situation. It significantly complicates the problem and makes no numerical difference. A red herring.

      • Wow, the comment system here really munged that comment – I had an entire paragraph that got lost between the angle brackets. Plug in the B-E formula for state 1 (1/(exp((E1 – mu)/kT) – 1) and state 2 (1/(exp(E2 – mu)/kT) – 1) and you’ll see the key question is not the energy difference E2 – E1 vs kT, but what E1 – mu is relative to kT. If there are a large number of quantum states available for a single particle, then that occupation number must be small, and therefore E1 – mu must be much larger than kT. Which implies there is essentially no numerical difference between B-E and M-B statistics in that case.

      • It is a critical energy that involves explicitly the factors listed. Boltzmann is used generally in the analytical derivation of a cloud nucleation formula – but breaks down at certain extremes involving low temps and surfactant loads.

        Boltzmann is used in classical nucleation theory – and the fact that there is minimal difference to B-E – especially wrt errors of estimation and measurement of the relevant factors – is obvious but not important. Boltzmann is generally used with this derivation in more common conditions. .

      • Taz, You are way out of your league. Remind yourself that you are but a civil engineer.

      • Webnutcoloscope – you are an eccentric electrical engineer seemingly in an administrative role. I am as you know both a hydrologist and an environmental scientist with an extremely broad education.

        You on the other hand seem to be utterly clueless about Earth sciences – you indulge in the oddest unscience seemingly motivated by resentment and malice exclusively. It is all a bit bizarre and my wonder is that Judith still permits this content less nonsense that you relentlessly wallow in.

  82. Fraud, using the Arctic sea ice extent and ignoring the Antarctic to try to prove AGW.
    1. Yes, CO2 goes up slightly year by year.
    2. Yes this should cause global warming.
    3. Which would cause the ice at both Poles to melt.
    Of course this is a valid argument if climate sensitivity to CO2 is high,
    But.
    There has been no global warming in 5 of the 6 most commonly used measuring systems for over 6 years and on the outlier for 17 years.
    The ice in the South pole read the script and went down but the ice in the Antarctic has stubbornly risen.
    The sea ice extent in the South pole is comparable to that in the North and behaves in a similar way despite the fact that one pole is centred on land and the other in a basin.
    Saying that increasing the temperature makes more ice form only in the South pole is such an ignorant, unscientific comment that it makes me feel ill.
    “Hot weather causes ice formation.”
    “Hot weather makes more ice”.
    repeat 100 times because it becomes even more true.
    Stupid just does not start to explain this.

    • The most important issue from a policy perspective is where the additional CO2 is coming from.

      • LOL–really?

      • Don’t laugh. It is for some of them.

      • Carrick is correct. He did not comment on the probability that the source is human. Beware kneejerk

      • missing a word:

        Beware kneejerk jerks.

      • Don and Rob, perhaps you can both explain to Carrick where the CO2 is coming from. This should be entertaining.

      • Jim D and Rob Starkey, you really need to be walked through this?

        I understand most of the new CO2 is anthropogenic. I was referring to from which nations.

        You guys must be part of the short-bus crew.

      • Excellent accident. Now, where does it go?
        ============

      • Not sure what you’re asking kim.

      • Carrick, really you can’t tell on this site these days. You can’t assume anything about what people know and you have to word phrases like that more precisely. Even saying what most people would consider the sane assumption based on this can get disagreement here. I have seen it.

      • Well, Jim actually shows my problem. Compare those curves(note the shaft on atmospheric CO2). Were it as much anthropogenic as claimed they should resemble each other more. So we have a paradox, Man, or outgassing. Well, through the horns of a paradox….both.

        Unless the ocean is cooling.
        =================

      • Political argumentation related to the role of developing countries in decisions on climate policy has been one of the most difficult issues in the UNFCCC negotiations. Now there are signs that indicate that this fight will be brought more and more into the activities of IPCC. That would mean that work of IPCC will not any more be an activity run mainly by scientists with some contribution from politics, but will become highly politicized with some contribution from scientists.

      • Jimmy has both feet in his mouth now. He is still choking on the foot he put in his mouth last night:

        Little jimmy dee yammered: “If you want a live debate, do it in front of a scientific audience, like at the AGU, who can detect the BS, and even better is to let that audience ask questions too. Would any skeptic take that offer up? I think not.”

        “curryja | September 21, 2014 at 7:12 pm |

        The toughest environment I’ve seen was the APS Workshop, with Santer, Held and Collins vs Curry, Lindzen Spencer, with questioning by very intelligent big shot physicists. Koonin’s op-ed reflects his judgement on all that.”

        No room left in jimmy’s mouth for any more feet. And everytime his knee jerks, he knocks out another tooth.

      • An example is kim, who sees the graph showing that Man has added twice as much CO2 as the actual rise, and that Nature is therefore a net sink, and still finds ways to say Man is not easily the biggest cause of this rise.

      • Pekka, the IPCC will have less science and more politics? I thought it couldn’t get any worse but I guess it can.

      • Frankenstein roams, Pekka; what are you going to do about it.
        ===============

      • Jim D, that shaft looks as corrupt as the Piltdown Mann’s Crook’t Stick.
        =====

      • Not at all. The most important question is, if the world resumes warming, should we care? If it doesn’t resume warming, why should we, from a policy perspective, be interested in CO2?

      • Jim D, true enough.

        I think it’s better to be cautious about jumping to conclusions about what other people are saying, until you really know them.

        The most compelling evidence to me is isotope ratio though (see Eric Steig’s post on RealClimate).

        People can make errors in measurement or accounting (even if implausible). For example, Ernst-Georg Beck argued that historical CO2 levels are much higher than are shown with the Keeling curve. Beck should have read Charles Keelings excellent research that explained the issues with measuring CO2 in the atmospheric boundary layer. I think this fully explains the discrepancy noted by Beck.

        But there’s virtually no way to explain the change in the isotope ratio, other than by an increase in CO2 originating from the burning of fossil fuels. This change in the mixture of CO2 isotopes also adds to the evidence that the increase in CO2 atmospheric concentration has been properly measured.

      • WebHubTelescope


        Carrick | September 22, 2014 at 1:15 pm |
        I understand most of the new CO2 is anthropogenic. I was referring to from which nations.

        Not likely. You screwed up Carrick , and now you are trying to make excuses.

      • Carrick, if you ask about “where the additional CO2 is coming from,” why would anyone understand that to mean “from which nations”? Please be more explicit.

      • Web schools us in graciousness, again.

        Carrick, you and Jim D might be right. Everytime I come new to think about it I think differently. Nonetheless, we do not know enough about the carbon cycle, or about paleo CO2 & temp to venture the confident pronouncements made.
        ===================

      • Is webby still hurting from the whupping Carrick gave him on that boson fiasco? What a soreheaded chump.

      • That’s why I called it an excellent accident, Faustino. Wonderfully funny, too.
        ========

      • I don’t think it is over yet, because Judith is still threatening a Salby post, which just encourages these people until it is put to rest.

      • jimmy, jimmy

        If Judith decides to waste our time with a post on Salby, with your towering intellect aided by links to huffpo talking points, you should be able to lay the issue to rest. I would prefer that she spare us that spectacle and instead allow that Tom McLellan clown to finish his trilogy.

      • Don, it will be more up to skeptics to lay that one to rest. Judith only listens to their views. This is what happened with the dragonslayers. Too many of her skeptics said it was bunkum, after she put their view in a main post, and only then she relented. I see this as something similar.

      • Was Judith under the spell of the Dragonslayers, jimmy? Do you check under you bed before you retire, to see if Judith is hiding there? You are a delusional little rascal.

      • Let’s just say she flirted with it. The first two parts were deleted due to some legal issue, but here even Monckton disses the whole idea, which is saying something.
        https://judithcurry.com/2011/02/04/slaying-a-greenhouse-dragon-part-iii-discussion/

      • Yeah jimmy, Judith is such a flirt:

        “My original motivation for doing these threads is to try to lay to rest the debate over the fundamental physics of infrared radiative emission of gases such as CO2 and H2O.”

        Did you notice the title of the posts, jimmy? You don’t know when to stfu.

      • WebHubTelescope

        Look at the graduating class of U Colorado one year

        1997
            Gilbert P. Compo (Peter Webster), Postdoc, CDC, NOAA
            Greg Duane (Peter Webster), NCAR
            John Fasullo (Peter Webster), Postdoc, NCAR
            Andrew C. Fusco (Murry Salby), Postdoc, Harvard
            James Pinto (Judith Curry), Research Associate, CU
        

        Damage control is in order. No need for Salby to tarnish reputations, eh?

      • Don, she devoted four or five threads to this stuff. It was not a quick dismissal based on the book itself. I wish we still had the first post to see how she introduced the dragonslayer book to her blog readership. Perhaps she needed all that airplay only to teach her skeptics a lesson in basic science, I don’t know. It was a long dance spread over at least six months.

      • It’s noted that Pekka is still the only one who