by Judith Curry
A few things that caught my eye this past week.
The IPCC has published the complete report Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). The Summary for Policy Makers was discussed previously on this thread (I don’t see anything in the full report that would change my mind re what I said about the SPM). The report is being spun by both sides. GWPF has an essay entitled IPCC confirms: we do not know if the climate is becoming more extreme. This article in Reuters reflects the MSM reaction: Plan now for climate related disasters. The summary points:
- Rising population, development put more in harm’s way
- Policymakers urged to act in next few decades
- Less emphasis on mitigation, more on cutting risk
The UK Met Office has begun to talk to climate sceptics, mostly under the initiative of Richard Betts. Kudos to Betts and the UKMO. The article discusses extensively the visit of Andrew Montford (Bishop Hill).
Each week I check AGW Observer, who does an excellent job of summarizing recent journal articles of general interest. From this weeks list:
- European hot summers associated with a reduction of cloudiness – Tang et al. (2012)
- September Arctic sea ice predicted to disappear near 2°C global warming above present – Mahlstein & Knutti (2012)
- Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change – Trenberth (2012)
- Is a bipolar seesaw consistent with observed Antarctic climate variability and trends? – Schneider & Noone (2012)
The one that caught my eye in particular is this one:
New paper claims that stratospheric ozone is most important driver of recent climate
Abstract: “The strong sensitivity of the Earth’s radiation balance to variations in the lower stratospheric ozone – reported previously – is analyzed here by the use of non-linear statistical methods. Our non-linear model of the land air temperature (T) – driven by the measured Arosa total ozone (TOZ) – explains 75% of total variability of Earth’s T variations during the period 1926–2011. We have analyzed also the factors which could influence the TOZ variability and found that the strongest impact belongs to the multi-decadal variations of galactic cosmic rays. Constructing a statistical model of the ozone variability, we have been able to predict the tendency in the land air T evolution till the end of the current decade. Results show that Earth is facing a weak cooling of the surface T by 0.05–0.25 K (depending on the ozone model) until the end of the current solar cycle. A new mechanism for O3influence on climate is proposed.”
Citation: N.A. Kilifarska, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2012.03.002.
JC comment: I have been overbusy the past two weeks (this state will continue for another two weeks). But it seems to me that the climate blogosphere has become slightly boring as of late? I note that I had this same sentiment just before the Peter Gleick story broke :) I have a number of interesting ideas for future posts, but they all will take more time than I currently have available to develop. Let me know if you see interesting papers or blog posts that could serve as the basis of a thread here. And please let me know if you are interested in doing a guest post.