Category Archives: Data and observations

Are the deep oceans cooling?

by Judith Curry

Direct determination of changes in oceanic heat content over the last 20 years are not in conflict with estimates of the radiative forcing, but the uncertainties remain too large to rationalize e.g., the apparent “pause” in warming. – Wunsch and Heimbach

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Understanding adjustments to temperature data

by Zeke Hausfather

There has been much discussion of temperature adjustment of late in both climate blogs and in the media, but not much background on what specific adjustments are being made, why they are being made, and what effects they have. Adjustments have a big effect on temperature trends in the U.S., and a modest effect on global land trends. The large contribution of adjustments to century-scale U.S. temperature trends lends itself to an unfortunate narrative that “government bureaucrats are cooking the books”.

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NCDC responds to concerns about surface temperature data set

Our algorithm is working as designed. – NOAA NCDC

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Skeptical of skeptics: is Steve Goddard right?

by Judith Curry

Skeptics doing what skeptics do best . . . attack skeptics.Suyts

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The inconvenient Southern Hemisphere

by Judith Curry

Given the new information now available from the Southern Hemisphere, climate scientists must consider a larger role for natural climate variability in contributing to global temperature changes over the past millennium. – Kim Cobb

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Curry versus Trenberth

by Judith Curry

At the Conference for World Affairs, in Boulder Colorado.

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Berkeley Earth Global

by Steve Mosher

We’ve completed the first draft of our global monthly product.

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Ocean heat content uncertainties

by Judith Curry

Central to arguments related to the hiatus and the ‘missing heat’ is the assertion that unusual amounts of heat are being stored in the deep ocean, and that this heat will eventually reappear at the surface.  Exactly how good is the ocean heat content data on which this argument is based?

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Is Earth in energy deficit?

by Steve McGee

Unlike many fiscal budgets, earth’s energy budget is widely believed to be in surplus.

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Data corruption by running mean ‘smoothers’

by Greg Goodman

Update added at end of article

Running means are often used as a simple low pass filter (usually without understanding its defects). Often it is referred to as a “smoother”.

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Uncertainty in Arctic temperatures

by Judith Curry

Motivated by the paper by Cowtan and Way, this post examines uncertainties in the recent variability of Arctic temperatures.

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Interpretation of UK temperatures since 1956

by Euan Mearns and Clive Best

In this post we present evidence that suggests 88% of temperature variance and one-third of net warming observed in the UK since 1956 can be explained by cyclical change in UK cloud cover.

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Uncertainty in SST measurements and data sets

by Judith Curry

Two new papers that discuss uncertainty in surface temperature measurements.

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Pacific Ocean Heat Content for the Past 10,000 years

by Judith Curry

paper published Science finds reconstructed Pacific Ocean heat content has been significantly higher throughout the vast majority of the past ~10,000 years in comparison to the latter 20th century.

“The findings support the view that the Holocene Thermal Maximum, the Medieval Warm Period, and the Little Ice Age were global events, and they provide a long-term perspective for evaluating the role of ocean heat content in various warming scenarios for the future.”

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The relentless increase of ocean heat

by Judith Curry

Ocean heat sequestration: false sense of security, or a solution to the global (surface) warming problem?

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Ice sheet collapse?

by Rud Istvan

One of the catastrophes associated with anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) is a rising sea.     Is the projected rise and rate unprecedented? Will it be catastrophic?                                   

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Available evidence: surface temperatures

by Steven Mosher

Some updates from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project.

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Sociology of the ‘pause’

by Judith Curry

The ‘pause’ has gone mainstream, with an article by Justin Gillis in the NYTimes.

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We’re not screwed (?)

by Judith Curry

We’re screwed: 11,000 years’ worth of ­climate data prove it.  It’s among the most compelling bits of proof out there that human beings are behind global warming, and as such has become a target on Mann’s back for climate denialists looking to draw a bead on scientists. The Atlantic, March 9th

We’re not screwed. The trouble is, as they quietly admitted over the weekend, their new and stunning claim is groundless. The real story is only just emerging, and it isn’t pretty. – Ross McKitrick

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Has Trenberth found the ‘missing’ heat?

by Judith Curry

Kevin Trenberth famously stated in the CRU emails:

The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.

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Playing hockey – blowing the whistle

by Rud Istvan

This instantly ‘famous’ 2013 Science hockey stick paper derived from Marcott’s 2011 Ph.D thesis at Oregon State University, available here. His thesis doesn’t show a hockey stick ‘blade’ projecting above its anomaly baseline NCDC 1961-1990. H/T to Jean S, posted at Climate Audit. Something changed after the thesis was published to produce the new ‘blade’ in Science. That something was significant, since the Science paper’s Supplementary Information discussion said it did not enable discriminating such a temperature variation (i.e. a ‘blade’) on such a short a time scale.

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Let’s play hockey – again

by Rud Istvan

On March 8, 2013, mainstream media around the world carried headlines trumpeting a new study in Science, the gist typified by NBC News:

Warming fastest since dawn of civilization

Except that is not what the paper was about.

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Berkeley Earth Update

by Steve Mosher

It has been a while since we’ve done an update and there is much to report on, including an update to the web site, some additional memos/papers to discuss and an update on the papers. Let’s start with the web site.

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20th century mean global sea level rise

by Judith Curry

On the acceleration of sea level rise, the Gilligan effect, and the garbage solution.

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Stratospheric uncertainty

by Judith Curry

The new data call into question our understanding of observed stratospheric temperature trends and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. - Thompson et al.

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